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$BTC Bitcoin late BTC touched a high of 79,870 USD (Kraken 24h high 79,978, some platforms' wick touched 80,000), just short of standing above 80,000, closing around 78,600.
This is not "lack of strength," but the main force deliberately braking just before 80,000—what is the intention?
Since August 19, rising from 62,800, +23% in 5 days, last night’s high was 79,870, just 130 dollars short of the 80,000 integer level without stabilizing.
Why stop exactly here?
Short squeeze nearing the end: From 8/19 to 8/21, about 4.6 billion USD in crypto short liquidations (mainly BTC), short-covering buy orders pushed the price to 79.5K, but on 8/24 when it surged to 80K, open interest (OI) did not hit a new high = not a new long attack, but the last short covering of old shorts.
80,000 is a dual wall of psychology and algorithm: 80,000 is an integer level, near the 0.382 retracement of the previous high at 126,000, and also a dense area of short sell orders. Testing this level measures selling pressure; a real breakthrough is easily countered by whales to create a "fake breakout."
ETF real money is supporting but not chasing highs: That week, spot BTC ETF net inflow was 1.9 billion USD (IBIT single day 503 million), the strongest weekly inflow since 2026, but institutions habitually "buy on dips, not chasing wicks," so no one swept at 79.8K.
Macro cards are not fully played: Core PCE on 8/26, NVDA earnings, Jackson Hole (Warsh’s debut) all in the latter half of this week; the main force does not want to bear macro risk above 80,000 for the shorts.
So the "intention" in one sentence:
Use short sellers’ positions to push the price to the 80,000 doorstep for a stress test, meanwhile offload some coins between 78–80K to retail chasing highs, keep ETF low-position chips, and wait for PCE/JH signals to decide whether to truly break 80K or fall back to 74K for a reset.
Touching 80K but not standing above = bulls are probing, not advancing.
Standing above 80K and closing stable on the weekly = short squeeze turning offensive; repeated wicks at 79.8K and falling back = high-level rotation unfinished; breaking 74K = this wave is just the bear tail B wave. $BTC Ethereum's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
⚠️For historical review only, not investment advice. Past cycles cannot be simply replicated, DYOR
Ethereum does not have a fixed four-year halving supply cycle like Bitcoin. It follows the macro big cycle of BTC and is internally driven by three variables: narrative, technical upgrades, and ecosystem explosions. Its volatility beta is significantly higher than Bitcoin's: bull markets see greater gains, bear markets deeper retracements, with historical bear market maximum drawdowns ranging from 70% to 94%.
I. Review of Three Complete Historical Cycles
Cycle 1: ICO Cycle (2016-2018)
- Bear Market Bottoming: DAO event crash, late 2016 bottom, market trust collapse, ecosystem depression
- Bull Market Driver: ICO wave, explosive demand for ERC20 token issuance
- Bull Market Peak: January 2018, approximately $1420
- Bear Market Decline: ICO bubble burst, regulatory crackdown, massive project ETH sell-offs, bottom around $82, maximum drawdown 94%
- Cycle Characteristics: purely narrative-driven, many technical issues, price driven by external financing demand.
Cycle 2: DeFi-NFT Cycle (2019-2022)
- Bear Market Bottoming: prolonged bottoming from late 2018 to mid-2020, DeFi underlying protocols quietly developed
- Bull Market Driver: DeFi summer, NFT explosion; EIP-1559 burn mechanism implemented
- Bull Market Peak: November 2021, $4891
- Bear Market Decline: aggressive Fed rate hikes, Terra and FTX chain of collapses; despite completing the Merge major upgrade and moving through "buy the rumor, sell the fact," bottomed at $879, drawdown 82%
- Cycle Characteristics: real ecosystem use cases landed, fundamental upgrades, but macro rate hikes overshadowed positives.
Cycle 3: ETF and Institutional Cycle (2023-2025)
- Bottoming and Recovery: 2023 banking crisis bottom, staking ecosystem continues expanding, L2 scaling rapidly developing
- Bull Market Driver: expectations for BTC spot ETF and ETH spot ETF, institutional capital entering
- Bull Market Peak: August 2025, $4953, new all-time high
- Current Bear Market Phase: after peaking in August 2025, entering a correction cycle, ETH/BTC ratio continuously declining, underperforming Bitcoin, L2 liquidity diversion, US regulatory uncertainty suppressing valuation.
II. Repeated Cycle Patterns of Ethereum (Cycle Rate)
1. Follows Bitcoin's big cycle but with a time lag
BTC halving is the master switch for the entire crypto market; historically, ETH usually starts its main upward wave 6-12 months after BTC halving; bear markets also follow BTC but ETH's retracements are generally deeper and more elastic.
2. Each bull market requires a new narrative to ignite the ecosystem
2017: ICO; 2021: DeFi+NFT; 2025: Institutional ETF;
Without a new story, it's hard to have an independent major rally; relying solely on old logic rarely leads to new highs.
3. Major technical upgrades often follow "buy the rumor, sell the fact"
The Merge is an epic fundamental innovation, involving burn issuance and eliminating miner sell pressure, but after implementation, the price fell instead of rising.
After full positive expectations are priced in, the event's realization leads to a sell-off; this is a classic ETH cycle phenomenon.
4. Two necessary conditions for bear market bottoms
① Extreme market panic occurs, with massive on-chain staking losses and thorough chip exchanges;
② ETH/BTC ratio falls to historically low levels, relatively devalued against Bitcoin.
Historical bottoms are accompanied by long-term weekly-level bottoming; rapid V-shaped reversals rarely form true major bottoms.
5. Bear market retracement range
ETH typical bear market retracement: 70%-83%; extreme black swan events can reach 90%+;
A full bull-bear cycle, from top to bottom and bottoming completion, spans about 2-2.8 years.
III. Projection Based on Historical Cycle Rate
History does not simply repeat but rhymes.
1) Time Window
If August 2025 is the peak of this cycle, referencing history, the full bear market bottoming window likely falls between late 2026 and early 2027.
Even if a price low is hit earlier, time is needed for weekly bottoming; panic sentiment and chip clearing are both essential.
2) Two Key Observation Indicators
- ETH/BTC ratio: only when it returns to historically very low percentiles is it a major opportunity zone for ETH relative value;
- Narrative catalyst: the next major ETH rally requires a new engine: RWA tokenization of real-world assets, large-scale L2 explosion, clear US regulation, large-scale institutional capital inflow—at least one must materialize.
3) Two Scenario Projections
- Pessimistic scenario: continued regulatory suppression, ongoing L2 liquidity diversion, ETH underperforms BTC long-term, bear market bottom further declines.
- Neutral scenario: Fed rate cut cycle begins + regulatory clarity, after sufficient time for bottoming, a new main upward wave arrives in 2027-2028.
4) Practical Insights
Do not mistake a quick rebound for the end of the bear market;
Without immersive bottoming and extreme panic, even if a price low appears, it is likely a rebound bottom, not a cycle major bottom.
IV. Biggest Variables: What Could Break This Historical Cycle
1. US SEC classifies ETH as a security; regulatory risk is the biggest black swan;
2. L2 ecosystem continues to divert liquidity, weakening mainnet value capture;
3. Institutions massively allocate Bitcoin, capital continuously tilts toward BTC, ETH/BTC weakens long-term.
$BTC $ETHBitcoin's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
1. Review of Historical Cycle Retracement Data
- 2017-2018 cycle: Peak $19,800 → Bottom $3,200, maximum retracement -84%
- 2021-2022 cycle: Peak $69,000 → Bottom $15,500, maximum retracement -78%
- Current 2025-2026 cycle: Peak $126,000, based on retracement convergence rules, projected retracement -68%, corresponding price $40,000
2. Observable Cycle Patterns
1. The maximum bear market retracement is continuously narrowing
84% → 78% → projected 68%. Underlying logic: ETF institutional funds continuously entering, more long-term spot holders, larger market size, the intensity of extreme sell-offs is weaker compared to earlier periods.
2. Retracement convergence ≠ no deep drops
The smaller drop is only relative to the previous two cycles; 68% still represents a historically significant bear market correction. The pattern of large declines has not disappeared.
3. The true bottom of each cycle is born when the market is generally in despair
Bull market fantasies are completely cleared, massive leverage liquidations occur, and the community is filled with pessimistic sentiment, which tends to usher in the cycle’s major bottom.
3. Objective Assessment of the Current Market Position
Since the peak of 126,000 in this cycle, the price has retraced about 50% at most.
According to historical patterns:
If the cycle script continues, there is still downside space to the theoretically calculated bottom target of $40,000.
The current range-bound movement is merely a mid-downtrend consolidation and should not be hastily defined as the end of the bear market.
⚠️ Crucial Risk Reminder
1. Historical patterns can only serve as reference projections, not guaranteed outcomes. There are only two complete bear market samples, so direct linear application is inappropriate;
Institutional fund flows, Federal Reserve interest rates, global regulation, and geopolitical conflicts can all alter the depth and pace of this adjustment.
2. $40,000 is only a projected target; it does not mean the price will definitely fall to this level, nor that it will necessarily stabilize and reverse there.
3. Do not rely solely on cycle points to go all-in on bottom fishing. The true bottom requires multiple signals converging: on-chain chip capitulation, large-scale leverage reduction, macro liquidity turning points, and extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
Practical Strategy
Remain vigilant about downside risk and discard the mindset of "it has already dropped a lot, so it’s safe to bottom fish."
- Short-term: respond with a range-trading approach, strictly control leverage;
- Long-term positioning: use a phased strategy, keep sufficient cash reserves, and gradually increase dollar-cost averaging as the price approaches the lower projected range;
- Defensive baseline: avoid heavy positions betting on the bottom prematurely, patiently wait for multiple confirmations from sentiment, volume-price, and macro signals. BTC hits $80,000! Reaches highest since May 16, up nearly 30% in 8 days. Is this a bull market restart or a short squeeze?
Just now, a market alert popped up, BTC surged straight to $80,000, up about 3.6% in 24h, marking the highest since May 16.
Breaking down this rebound, three forces combined:
• US Treasury long-term bond repo scale doubled → long-end yields fell → risk assets + gold + BTC all attracted liquidity
• Over 20% rise in three days forced shorts to cover, more than $4 billion in put positions closed, the higher it goes, the more shorts get squeezed
• Spot BTC ETF net inflow about $1.92 billion in a single week, institutions are back to accumulate
ETH also climbed near 2500, altcoin sentiment lifted, but don’t get carried away—
80k is a psychological round number and a previous dense trading zone; this is not a place to blindly rush in. A pullback to 78,000-79,000 without breaking below is needed to confirm a true hold.
Personally, I lean towards: short term, the short squeeze continues; mid term, it depends on whether ETF inflows sustain; if macro sentiment shifts on Friday, a sharp correction could come at any time.CORE's 5 Most Easily Misunderstood Issues Today
1. About “Mobile Mining” — We Must Clarify Concepts First, Otherwise Promotion Becomes Misleading
In the early days, the small amount of “cloud computing power” people got by clicking the Satoshi App on their phones was essentially a token distribution event, completely different from Bitcoin ASIC miners running SHA-256 PoW mining to secure the network.
The true security foundation of the CORE mainnet is Satoshi Plus: Bitcoin miners delegate their computing power to Core validators (without changing Bitcoin’s main business, they get CORE rewards for free) + CORE holders stake for governance + BTC holders do non-custodial time-locked staking.
In short: what you get on your phone is a “meal ticket,” while BTC computing power delegation is “guarding the vault.” Calling the former mining is a dimensionality reduction misinterpretation of BTC’s native consensus. Please lock down the concepts in community discussions.
2. Will Node Staking Whales Give Up When Costs Drop from $6 to $0.02?
Some won’t, some will; it depends.
A significant portion of node staking is a hard lock for running the network — to earn validator rewards and governance weight, you must lock CORE/BTC according to the rules. This is a different decision system from retail traders watching K-lines to buy and sell. Long-term funds view BTCFi infrastructure on a multi-year basis and won’t fully liquidate just because CORE dropped from 6.14 to 0.02.
But “long-term staking” ≠ “never moving”: institutions have redemption cycles, LP expirations, and financial report pressures. The single address unstaking of 440 BTC in July 2026 is an example. The rational conclusion: locking tokens is a positive signal but not an immortal “never sell” card.
3. CORE’s Current Price Is 0.02, So Why Are There Still 2400+ BTC Lying in Dual Staking?
Because the BTC holders who came in never intended to sell their BTC.
The logic of the BTC base holders is: I hold BTC for 3-5 years, and it’s idle in a cold wallet anyway, so why not lock BTC into Core with non-custodial time locks, stack CORE staking to Dual Staking Boost/Super/Satoshi tiers, and get free CORE rewards plus lstBTC liquidity. They are betting on CORE ecosystem’s long-term value, not today’s 0.02 or 0.03 price fluctuations. The lower the price, the higher the “sunk cost” in CORE staking, but the BTC principal remains untouched, which whales don’t care about.
4. Why Do Whales Stake CORE Instead of Selling BTC During BTC Bull Runs? The Logic Ordinary People Don’t Understand
Ordinary traders think “sell to take profit when price rises,” whales think “BTC is real estate on the balance sheet.”
Base allocation: selling 10-20% in a rally is enough to improve cash flow; the remaining 80% is meant to be held through cycles;
Betting on the sector: optimistic about BTCFi turning dormant BTC into interest-bearing assets, locking BTC early into foundational infrastructure, betting that in 3 years CORE will be the BTCFi base and locked BTC will earn compounded CORE rewards;
It’s not pure “project support,” but an asset allocation of “idle BTC + long-term options,” with a side bet on the sector.
5. If CORE’s Narrative Succeeds, Will Similar Projects Like Watch, Car, Refrigerator Mining Appear?
Definitely, but most won’t survive a full cycle.
DePIN + lightweight terminal customer acquisition costs are extremely low; watch/car/router mining are just traffic shells. Whether a project succeeds doesn’t depend on what the terminal looks like but on three things:
Whether the underlying public chain truly has external security backing (CORE has BTC computing power; clones do not)
Whether there are real, billable application scenarios (like SatPay, lstBTC, Colend lending)
Whether there is independent cash flow separate from token inflation (fee buyback and burn, stablecoin interest spread)
Projects relying solely on “watch mining to give away tokens” without business support are short-term Ponzi hype, not BTCFi. Playing with crypto over the years, I've found the most expensive lesson isn't losing money, it's losing time.
I used to spend four to five hours a day watching the market, but in the end, I earned less than those who just bought and forgot about it.
Later, I switched to checking the weekly chart once a week, spending the rest of the time working overtime or watching shows.
$BTC I buy a little on my payday every month, regardless of the price, then transfer it to a cold wallet.
After two years of hardly managing it, I actually earned much more than when I was trading frequently.
I don't even touch simulated contracts because I know I can't control myself.
I quit all the news groups, keeping only one silent one, occasionally opening it to have a laugh.
Now, my simple method for timing buys and sells is: buy when no one in my circle is posting prices.
When everyone is showing screenshots, it's time to sell—simple and straightforward.
$ETH I've only bought once, just to try that smart contract, and then I didn't care about the ups and downs.
That money was like buying a game skin; once played, it's not a loss.
I only add to my position in one case: when the price keeps falling continuously until no one complains anymore.
When that happens, I add a little, then play dead and never check again.
When I make money, I first take out half, converting it into physical goods or paying off some credit card debt.
Last month, I took some out to buy a new TV for my family; watching games on weekends is much more enjoyable.
$SOL I just kept a tiny bit, bought at the peak back then, now it hangs as a souvenir.
It reminds me every day: no matter how good the story, don't get carried away; buying high is just buying high.
Now I spend no more than two minutes a day checking the market, set alerts, then close the app.
The time saved, I learned to make cold dishes; eating them in summer is more refreshing than watching K-line charts.
No matter how lively the market is, nothing beats the crispness of cucumbers I prepare myself.
Finally, just one sentence: light positions, long-term, less fuss, life is steadier than your account. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Bitcoin's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
1. Review of Historical Cycle Retracement Data
- 2017-2018 cycle: Peak $19,800 → Bottom $3,200, maximum retracement -84%
- 2021-2022 cycle: Peak $69,000 → Bottom $15,500, maximum retracement -78%
- Current 2025-2026 cycle: Peak $126,000, based on retracement convergence rules, projected retracement -68%, corresponding price $40,000
2. Observable Cycle Patterns
1. The maximum bear market retracement is continuously narrowing
84% → 78% → projected 68%. Underlying logic: ETF institutional funds continuously entering, more long-term spot holders, larger market size, the intensity of extreme sell-offs is weaker compared to earlier periods.
2. Retracement convergence ≠ no deep drops
The smaller drop is only relative to the previous two cycles; 68% still represents a historically significant bear market correction. The pattern of large declines has not disappeared.
3. The true bottom of each cycle is born when the market is generally in despair
Bull market fantasies are completely cleared, massive leverage liquidations occur, and the community is filled with pessimistic sentiment, which tends to usher in the cycle’s major bottom.
3. Objective Assessment of the Current Market Position
Since the peak of 126,000 in this cycle, the price has retraced about 50% at most.
According to historical patterns:
If the cycle script continues, there is still downside space to the theoretically calculated bottom target of $40,000.
The current range-bound movement is merely a mid-downtrend consolidation and should not be hastily defined as the end of the bear market.
⚠️ Crucial Risk Reminder
1. Historical patterns can only serve as reference projections, not guaranteed outcomes. There are only two complete bear market samples, so direct linear application is inappropriate;
Institutional fund flows, Federal Reserve interest rates, global regulation, and geopolitical conflicts can all alter the depth and pace of this adjustment.
2. $40,000 is only a projected target; it does not mean the price will definitely fall to this level, nor that it will necessarily stabilize and reverse there.
3. Do not rely solely on cycle points to go all-in on bottom fishing. The true bottom requires multiple signals converging: on-chain chip capitulation, large-scale leverage reduction, macro liquidity turning points, and extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
Practical Strategy
Remain vigilant about downside risk and discard the mindset of "it has already dropped a lot, so it’s safe to bottom fish."
- Short-term: respond with a range-trading approach, strictly control leverage;
- Long-term positioning: use a phased strategy, keep sufficient cash reserves, and gradually increase dollar-cost averaging as the price approaches the lower projected range;
- Defensive baseline: avoid heavy positions betting on the bottom prematurely, patiently wait for multiple confirmations from sentiment, volume-price, and macro signals. 🚨BTC: A rise should have made the market livelier, but recently many retail investors have noticed an unusual phenomenon: the market is rising, but their altcoins haven't risen much, and are even falling. This isn't just bad luck for retail investors, but rather a shift in market capital structure: funds are prioritizing BTC and ETH, while most altcoins are just consuming the hype. 1. Looking at the market, BTC has recently outperformed small-cap coins and ETH has remained relatively stable, but many previously popular altcoins have started to fluctuate at high levels or even weaken. This kind of market trend is most likely to give retail investors the illusion: they think it's just a rotation that hasn't happened yet, so they keep holding weak coins, only to wait for BTC to surge, while altcoins fall first. 2. 📊 Market data shows that in the past 24 hours, total contract turnover was about 129 billion USDT, with BTC and ETH contracts accounting for over 66%, indicating that funds are highly concentrated in the two major mainstream coins. Total net liquidations across the network were 522 million USDT, with long positions liquidated at 331 million and short liquidations at 191 million. Among liquidated users, many did not lose money from BTC declines but held altcoins waiting for catch-up gains, eventually getting stuck deeper and deeper. 3. 🔍 On-chain data also supports this judgment. Recently, stablecoins have not flowed heavily into small-cap altcoin contracts, but more to BTC and ETH related trading pairs and staking addresses. This indicates that institutions and large funds are not fully positioning themselves for altcoin seasons, but are pursuing more stable mainstream coin rebounds. Altcoins are mostly driven by retail investor sentiment, and their sustainability is usually poor.CORE's 5 Most Easily Misunderstood Issues Today
1. About “Mobile Mining” — We Must Clarify Concepts First, Otherwise Promotion Becomes Misleading
In the early days, the small amount of “cloud computing power” people got by clicking the Satoshi App on their phones was essentially a token distribution event, completely different from Bitcoin ASIC miners running SHA-256 PoW mining to secure the network.
The true security foundation of the CORE mainnet is Satoshi Plus: Bitcoin miners delegate their computing power to Core validators (without changing Bitcoin’s main business, they get CORE rewards for free) + CORE holders stake for governance + BTC holders do non-custodial time-locked staking.
In short: what you get on your phone is a “meal ticket,” while BTC computing power delegation is “guarding the vault.” Calling the former mining is a dimensionality reduction misinterpretation of BTC’s native consensus. Please lock down the concepts in community discussions.
2. Will Node Staking Whales Give Up When Costs Drop from $6 to $0.02?
Some won’t, some will; it depends.
A significant portion of node staking is a hard lock for running the network — to earn validator rewards and governance weight, you must lock CORE/BTC according to the rules. This is a different decision system from retail traders watching K-lines to buy and sell. Long-term funds view BTCFi infrastructure on a multi-year basis and won’t fully liquidate just because CORE dropped from 6.14 to 0.02.
But “long-term staking” ≠ “never moving”: institutions have redemption cycles, LP expirations, and financial report pressures. The single address unstaking of 440 BTC in July 2026 is an example. The rational conclusion: locking tokens is a positive signal but not an immortal “never sell” card.
3. CORE’s Current Price Is 0.02, So Why Are There Still 2400+ BTC Lying in Dual Staking?
Because the BTC holders who came in never intended to sell their BTC.
The logic of the BTC base holders is: I hold BTC for 3-5 years, and it’s idle in a cold wallet anyway, so why not lock BTC into Core with non-custodial time locks, stack CORE staking to Dual Staking Boost/Super/Satoshi tiers, and get free CORE rewards plus lstBTC liquidity. They are betting on CORE ecosystem’s long-term value, not today’s 0.02 or 0.03 price fluctuations. The lower the price, the higher the “sunk cost” in CORE staking, but the BTC principal remains untouched, which whales don’t care about.
4. Why Do Whales Stake CORE Instead of Selling BTC During BTC Bull Runs? The Logic Ordinary People Don’t Understand
Ordinary traders think “sell to take profit when price rises,” whales think “BTC is real estate on the balance sheet.”
Base allocation: selling 10-20% in a rally is enough to improve cash flow; the remaining 80% is meant to be held through cycles;
Betting on the sector: optimistic about BTCFi turning dormant BTC into interest-bearing assets, locking BTC early into foundational infrastructure, betting that in 3 years CORE will be the BTCFi base and locked BTC will earn compounded CORE rewards;
It’s not pure “project support,” but an asset allocation of “idle BTC + long-term options,” with a side bet on the sector.
5. If CORE’s Narrative Succeeds, Will Similar Projects Like Watch, Car, Refrigerator Mining Appear?
Definitely, but most won’t survive a full cycle.
DePIN + lightweight terminal customer acquisition costs are extremely low; watch/car/router mining are just traffic shells. Whether a project succeeds doesn’t depend on what the terminal looks like but on three things:
Whether the underlying public chain truly has external security backing (CORE has BTC computing power; clones do not)
Whether there are real, billable application scenarios (like SatPay, lstBTC, Colend lending)
Whether there is independent cash flow separate from token inflation (fee buyback and burn, stablecoin interest spread)
Projects relying solely on “watch mining to give away tokens” without business support are short-term Ponzi hype, not BTCFi. BTC and ETH Rise, Altcoins Remain Divided
$BTC reached $79.5K and $ETH surpassed $2.5K, yet $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK remain weak. Capital continues favoring large-cap assets, while altcoins face thin liquidity, weaker spot demand, and token-specific supply pressure. BTC and ETH ETFs attracted around $2.6B in weekly inflows, reinforcing the preference for market leaders. The current setup points to selective capital rotation rather than a broad Altseason. 💥Storage is under pressure, crypto is strengthening, and capital rotation is undergoing changes.
The US tech and semiconductor sectors have recently been clearly under pressure, and the market is beginning to reassess AI overvaluation and the storage cycle. The chip sector's pullback has indeed created conditions for capital to seek new directions.
On the other hand, $BTC continues to approach $80,000, $ETH stands near 2500, ETF funds are flowing back, and BTC ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, indicating that institutional buying still exists.
But this should not be simply understood as "storage falls, so crypto must rise." What truly deserves attention is whether capital is reallocating from overvalued tech assets to alternative assets like BTC.
The biggest short-term variable remains Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Fed on the interest rate path. If a dovish expectation is released, risk assets may continue to be supported; conversely, if the stance is hawkish, BTC might see profit-taking after hitting 80,000.
So the current direction is bullish, but blindly chasing highs near 80,000 is not advisable. Only after a real breakthrough and stabilization should the next phase be discussed.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 📈BTC suddenly surged to around 79,990, and market sentiment has clearly warmed up. Many people have already started calling for 80,000 and 85,000, with more and more screenshots of chasing highs circulating in the community. But especially at times like this, it's crucial to understand the capital structure: a rising market does not mean all funds are simultaneously increasing positions; some whales are precisely using the market heat to gradually reduce positions at high levels⚠️. From on-chain data, large BTC transfers have been unusually active in the past 24 hours, with over 12,000 BTC moving from long-term holding addresses to exchange-related addresses. This doesn't necessarily mean an imminent crash, but it indicates that some long-term funds are starting to take profits at high levels. More notably, the net outflow of BTC from exchanges has not increased correspondingly, suggesting that funds are not simply exiting but are being redistributed among different addresses in preparation for upcoming volatility. 📊 Market trading data shows that in the past 24 hours, BTC contract turnover reached 56.2 billion USDT, with the total market turnover around 138 billion USDT. The total liquidation amount across the network was 608 million USDT, including 392 million from long positions and 216 million from short positions. This data is critical: although the market appears to be in an uptrend, more long positions were liquidated, indicating that many were caught in short-term spikes after chasing highs or had opened positions with excessively high leverage. 🔍 Why is this happening? Because the market has now entered a phase where "mainstream coins are strong, altcoins are weak." BTC and ETH have attracted most of the liquidity, and retail investors see the overall market rising and mistakenly believe the bull market is accelerating again, soBitcoin's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
1. Review of Historical Cycle Retracement Data
- 2017-2018 cycle: Peak $19,800 → Bottom $3,200, maximum retracement -84%
- 2021-2022 cycle: Peak $69,000 → Bottom $15,500, maximum retracement -78%
- Current 2025-2026 cycle: Peak $126,000, based on retracement convergence rules, projected retracement -68%, corresponding price $40,000
2. Observable Cycle Patterns
1. The maximum bear market retracement is continuously narrowing
84% → 78% → projected 68%. Underlying logic: ETF institutional funds continuously entering, more long-term spot holders, larger market size, the intensity of extreme sell-offs is weaker compared to earlier periods.
2. Retracement convergence ≠ no deep drops
The smaller drop is only relative to the previous two cycles; 68% still represents a historically significant bear market correction. The pattern of large declines has not disappeared.
3. The true bottom of each cycle is born when the market is generally in despair
Bull market fantasies are completely cleared, massive leverage liquidations occur, and the community is filled with pessimistic sentiment, which tends to usher in the cycle’s major bottom.
3. Objective Assessment of the Current Market Position
Since the peak of 126,000 in this cycle, the price has retraced about 50% at most.
According to historical patterns:
If the cycle script continues, there is still downside space to the theoretically calculated bottom target of $40,000.
The current range-bound movement is merely a mid-downtrend consolidation and should not be hastily defined as the end of the bear market.
⚠️ Crucial Risk Reminder
1. Historical patterns can only serve as reference projections, not guaranteed outcomes. There are only two complete bear market samples, so direct linear application is inappropriate;
Institutional fund flows, Federal Reserve interest rates, global regulation, and geopolitical conflicts can all alter the depth and pace of this adjustment.
2. $40,000 is only a projected target; it does not mean the price will definitely fall to this level, nor that it will necessarily stabilize and reverse there.
3. Do not rely solely on cycle points to go all-in on bottom fishing. The true bottom requires multiple signals converging: on-chain chip capitulation, large-scale leverage reduction, macro liquidity turning points, and extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
Practical Strategy
Remain vigilant about downside risk and discard the mindset of "it has already dropped a lot, so it’s safe to bottom fish."
- Short-term: respond with a range-trading approach, strictly control leverage;
- Long-term positioning: use a phased strategy, keep sufficient cash reserves, and gradually increase dollar-cost averaging as the price approaches the lower projected range;
- Defensive baseline: avoid heavy positions betting on the bottom prematurely, patiently wait for multiple confirmations from sentiment, volume-price, and macro signals. $BTC and $ETH: Is history repeating itself?
In 2022, $BTC dropped to $17.7K in June, then rebounded sharply, before testing lows near $15.8K again. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC again rebounded strongly from below $60K to around $80K, while $ETH rose back above $2.4K. But this cycle has a major difference: institutional demand returning via spot ETFs, with recent weekly inflows into Bitcoin nearing $2 billion and Ethereum close to $700 million.
Is this a true cycle bottom, or just another relief rally? $SOL $OKB $ZEC $BTC historical cycles are indeed worth referencing, but I tend to treat "$40,000" as a stress test scenario rather than an inevitable target.
In the past two bear markets, the maximum drawdowns were about 84% and 78%. If we calculate from the recent high of $126,000 this round, even if the drawdown narrows further to 68%, it theoretically corresponds to around $40,000. The issue is that BTC's market structure has changed now, with increased ETF, institutional allocations, and long-term capital proportions, so simply replicating the previous cycle is not rigorous.
What really needs attention is not "how much it has fallen historically," but whether this round shows resonance signals of a bear market bottom: complete deleveraging, long-term holders starting to accumulate again, ETF funds continuously flowing in, macro liquidity turning, and market sentiment truly entering extreme pessimism.
Therefore, even if a significant pullback occurs now, one cannot judge the bottom solely based on "it has already fallen a lot." Short-term leverage control, mid-term cash retention, and long-term phased positioning are more reasonable.
If BTC experiences a deep pullback again later, I will focus on observing capital and structural changes in the $60,000, $50,000, and $40,000 zones, rather than betting prematurely on any absolute bottom.
The above is only my personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 ALTSEASON MAY HAVE CHANGED ITS SHAPE
Everyone is still waiting for the moment when “all altcoins pump together.” But this market may not work that way anymore.
$BTC has just pushed close to $80K, while $ARG, $VELODROME, $PROS, $VIRTUAL, $DEGEN, and other tokens have already started breaking out in rotation.
Maybe this altseason won’t be one broad wave, but a series of micro-seasons — with capital rotating from one narrative to another. BTCFi Value Reconstruction, An Objective View on CORE Bull Market Space Forecast
⚠️Note: The content is only a compilation of public information and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please participate rationally.
As the BTCFi sector gradually becomes the core narrative of the next bull market, CORE, an EVM public chain integrating Bitcoin computing power, continues to attract market attention for its long-term valuation projection. To reasonably predict the price range, one cannot simply fantasize about multiples; it requires a comprehensive judgment combining business model, sector landscape, and implementation progress.
2026 is defined by Core as the revenue era, with the biggest transformation being the economic model shift: bidding farewell to the previous inflation subsidy data-pulling model, all ecosystem fees will be collected into the treasury for continuous secondary market repurchase of CORE, building a value flywheel of "BTC staking growth → ecosystem fee increase → token repurchase and burn." The three core products driving cash flow are LST liquid staking, SatPay Bitcoin bank, and AMP asset management protocol. Meanwhile, European listed institution BTCS S.A. already holds cooperative settlement chips, and the financing fund increase plan has entered the execution phase. Institutional fund movements are an important observation indicator.
Referring to historical valuations of similar BTCFi sector targets, three scenarios are projected. Conservative scenario: roadmap delivery falls short of expectations, ecosystem users and staked BTC scale grow slowly, only achieving slight valuation repair in the sector. Neutral scenario: SatPay successfully launches public testing, BTC liquid staking business steadily scales, continuously generating stable revenue, the value flywheel begins to operate, and market cap aligns with second-tier sector targets. Optimistic scenario: a large amount of existing BTC funds flow into the network, the repurchase mechanism continuously takes effect, institutions keep deploying, BTCFi welcomes a major sector rally, unlocking valuation ceiling.
However, all optimistic forecasts are based on smooth implementation and potential risks cannot be ignored. The BTCFi sector competition is fierce, with competitors like STX having a clear first-mover advantage; roadmap planning does not equal on-time delivery, product delays will continuously suppress market expectations; market conditions, regulatory environment, and large chip unlocks will greatly affect price trends. The huge drop from historical highs also indicates that past excessive market premiums have been digested, and a new round of rally requires solid business data support.
The most important thing in investing is tracking and verification; do not blindly gamble by locking in target prices prematurely. Key follow-ups include SatPay public test data, real on-chain fee income, and institutional fund accumulation progress. Only when the narrative converts into sustained cash flow and the value flywheel operates effectively can expectations be realized. Market trends are never linear; respect volatility and make independent decisions.
#CORE #BTCFi #PublicChainEcosystem $HYPE is making new highs. But there’s a $1.2B supply event coming.
HYPE just pushed to a new all-time high around $83, while Hyperliquid continues to attract serious trading activity.
The timing is interesting.
On August 29, around 14.18M $HYPE tokens are scheduled to unlock, worth roughly $1.2B at current prices. That represents about 1.4% of total supply and 2.7% of HYPE’s market cap. Nearly 47% of the unlocked tokens are allocated to insiders. 0
This creates a very interesting setup.
$HYPE is entering the unlock with strong momentum instead of weakness.
If demand absorbs the new supply, the unlock could become less important than many traders expect.
But if holders start taking profits into the event, the extra supply could create short-term selling pressure.
That’s why I’m not looking only at the price.
I’m watching volume, open interest, spot demand and how $HYPE behaves as August 29 approaches.
Hyperliquid is already competing aggressively with platforms like $GMX and $DYDX in decentralized derivatives.
So this isn't just another token unlock.
It’s a test of whether the market can absorb significant new $HYPE supply while the protocol remains in a strong growth phase.
$HYPE $BTC $ETH $SOL $GMX $DYDX $LINK $ARB
The question:
Can $HYPE hold its momentum after a $1.2B unlock, or will the new supply finally give sellers an advantage?
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap What RWA fears most is not the lack of storytelling, but telling stories for a long time and still being stuck in the PPT.
This time Coinbase has natively brought tokenized stocks onto Base, which is a step forward: based on the B20 standard, real stocks are held 1:1 by a regulated custodian, users in eligible regions can hold them through self-custody wallets, and 24/7 on-chain trading is supported.
There are three key points: 24/7 breaks the US stock trading hours, self-custody reduces intermediary friction, and 1:1 custody retains compliance attributes. Coinbase, as the largest compliant exchange in the US, stepping in to connect traditional stocks with on-chain liquidity, is another important use case deeply binding Coinbase to the Base ecosystem.
In the short term, this is generally positive for the Base ecosystem and the RWA narrative. But don’t equate "launch" directly with "adoption completed"; real liquidity and user scale still need time to be verified.
The focus going forward is on three things: whether trading volume can expand, whether the range of supported stocks will broaden, and whether other exchanges will follow suit. Currently, it’s more worthwhile to watch on-chain trading data and whether ecosystem capital inflows continue, rather than blindly chasing RWA concept tokens.
Market interpretation: generally positive.
Source: Wu Shuo
#Crypto100W Bitcoin's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
1. Review of Historical Cycle Retracement Data
- 2017-2018 cycle: Peak $19,800 → Bottom $3,200, maximum retracement -84%
- 2021-2022 cycle: Peak $69,000 → Bottom $15,500, maximum retracement -78%
- Current 2025-2026 cycle: Peak $126,000, based on retracement convergence rules, projected retracement -68%, corresponding price $40,000
2. Observable Cycle Patterns
1. The maximum bear market retracement is continuously narrowing
84% → 78% → projected 68%. Underlying logic: ETF institutional funds continuously entering, more long-term spot holders, larger market size, the intensity of extreme sell-offs is weaker compared to earlier periods.
2. Retracement convergence ≠ no deep drops
The smaller drop is only relative to the previous two cycles; 68% still represents a historically significant bear market correction. The pattern of large declines has not disappeared.
3. The true bottom of each cycle is born when the market is generally in despair
Bull market fantasies are completely cleared, massive leverage liquidations occur, and the community is filled with pessimistic sentiment, which tends to usher in the cycle’s major bottom.
3. Objective Assessment of the Current Market Position
Since the peak of 126,000 in this cycle, the price has retraced about 50% at most.
According to historical patterns:
If the cycle script continues, there is still downside space to the theoretically calculated bottom target of $40,000.
The current range-bound movement is merely a mid-downtrend consolidation and should not be hastily defined as the end of the bear market.
⚠️ Crucial Risk Reminder
1. Historical patterns can only serve as reference projections, not guaranteed outcomes. There are only two complete bear market samples, so direct linear application is inappropriate;
Institutional fund flows, Federal Reserve interest rates, global regulation, and geopolitical conflicts can all alter the depth and pace of this adjustment.
2. $40,000 is only a projected target; it does not mean the price will definitely fall to this level, nor that it will necessarily stabilize and reverse there.
3. Do not rely solely on cycle points to go all-in on bottom fishing. The true bottom requires multiple signals converging: on-chain chip capitulation, large-scale leverage reduction, macro liquidity turning points, and extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
Practical Strategy
Remain vigilant about downside risk and discard the mindset of "it has already dropped a lot, so it’s safe to bottom fish."
- Short-term: respond with a range-trading approach, strictly control leverage;
- Long-term positioning: use a phased strategy, keep sufficient cash reserves, and gradually increase dollar-cost averaging as the price approaches the lower projected range;
- Defensive baseline: avoid heavy positions betting on the bottom prematurely, patiently wait for multiple confirmations from sentiment, volume-price, and macro signals. 这些日子，市场上关于比特币的讨论又热闹起来，但热闹背后，冷静的观察者往往会看到另一番景象。近期有一个观点在私下交流中颇具共鸣：当下仍然重仓持有比特币的人，或许正站在一个需要重新审视的位置上。这并非简单的多空之争，而是对资产相对强弱的一次冷静梳理。 核心的观察点在于以太坊与比特币的汇率变化。从年度级别的趋势来看，E/B汇率在经历了多年连续走弱之后，今年的下行斜率已经明显放缓，甚至呈现出一种接近横向整理的“十字星”结构。这种技术形态的潜台词是，即便以太坊暂时难以大幅跑赢比特币，但未来继续显著跑输的空间也已经相当有限。当两个高相关性资产面临同样的宏观环境时，选择潜在弹性更高的一方，成为了不少资金的自然倾向。 再看比特币近期的价格轨迹，八月初还在六万二千美元附近徘徊，短时间内快速冲高至八万美元。这种急促的拉升，在我眼中并不算扎实。它更像是通过强力手段制造的短期体重下降，减去的是水分而非脂肪。表面上看数字很漂亮，但内在的支撑结构并未同步跟上。基于此，我始终认为五万八千美元未必是本轮周期的真实底部，甚至对于二零二七年出现真正意义上的大牛市，我也不敢抱有太高的期待。 理由在于宏观环境的制约。明年大概$CORE Institutional Banking Edition Launched: Does It Have a Real Impact on BTC?
CORE Institutional Banking Edition (Institutional-grade BTCFi solution) is designed for custodial institutions, asset managers, and digital banks to create compliant BTC staking, lstBTC liquidity, and balance sheet yield tools. We break down the impact in layers:
✅ Long-term Positive Value (The Real Logic Benefiting BTC)
1. Solves the Biggest Pain Point for Institutions: Idle BTC Cannot Earn Yield
Many traditional institutions, family offices, and asset managers buy BTC but can only hold it cold without compliant channels to earn yield.
The institutional edition connects with top custodians like BitGo and Hex Trust, supports native BTC time-locked staking without private keys leaving custody, and does not require cross-chain wrapping into WBTC.
Institutions now have a compliant and feasible BTC yield solution, which will increase their willingness to allocate to Bitcoin and attract incremental capital to BTC.
2. Expands Bitcoin Asset Application Boundaries, Strengthening the BTCFi Narrative
Bitcoin has long been criticized for "only having store-of-value attributes and lacking financial functions."
The implementation of CORE institutional tools means institutions can use BTC as collateral for lending, generate liquidity certificates lstBTC, turning Bitcoin from a pure "digital gold" into a yield-generating asset that produces cash flow, enhancing Bitcoin's acceptance in traditional financial systems.
3. Changes in Capital Behavior: Reduces Spot Selling Pressure
Institutions holding BTC no longer have only the "sell on price rise" option. By staking to earn continuous yield, some long-term institutions will reduce short-term trading frequency, decreasing spot market sell-offs and improving BTC circulating supply structure in the mid to long term.
⚠️ Key Limitations: Why Is It Difficult to Drive a Big BTC Rally in the Short Term?
1. Long Implementation and Transmission Cycle
Institutions require months or longer for system integration, internal risk approval, and capital strategy adjustments. The launch of version one will not immediately bring large institutional funds to buy BTC. Narrative implementation ≠ immediate capital inflow.
2. BTC Price Ultimately Not Determined by BTCFi Track
The core drivers of Bitcoin's mid-term market are Federal Reserve interest rates, US dollar liquidity, US regulation (CLARITY Act), and ETF capital inflows.
BTCFi is a secondary narrative that can amplify trends but cannot independently drive BTC into a major bull market against macro liquidity conditions. In a tight macro environment, a single ecosystem's benefits rarely reverse the overall market direction.
3. Competition and Capital Diversion Exist
Multiple BTC layer-2 and BTC staking solutions compete simultaneously; institutions will not bet solely on the CORE ecosystem, causing incremental capital to disperse.
📌 Impact on CORE Itself (Linked Observation)
Institutional staking aiming for higher-tier yields requires pairing with CORE dual staking. This will continuously create CORE buy demand in the long term;
But in the short term, two key validation signals are needed:
① Whether well-known custodians and asset managers officially announce access to the institutional banking edition;
② Whether the on-chain staked BTC amount can continuously rise.
Without on-chain capital growth, news alone is just short-term hype.
📌 Trader Practical Perspective
1. Before the macro liquidity easing inflection point arrives, do not expect this news alone to drive a unilateral BTC rally;
2. Long-term view: The continuous rollout of BTCFi institutional tools is an important foundational buildup for a Bitcoin bull market, a slowly fermenting long-term logic;
3. CORE's price movement is highly tied to BTCFi hype; focus on institutional partnership announcements and on-chain BTC staking data going forward.
Risk Warning: Content is for industry opinion exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and there is uncertainty in technology rollout progress and institutional adoption speed.
$BTC $CORE$DOGE
#CORE #Bitcoin #BTCFi #InstitutionalCapitalOne number in the crypto market deserves more attention right now:
$2.6B.
U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded around $2.6B in net inflows last week — their strongest combined week since October 2025.
Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.92B, while Ethereum ETFs received around $697M. (Decrypt)
But there is an important detail:
ETF assets increased by much more than $2.6B.
That means a large part of the growth came from the rising value of BTC and ETH already held by the funds — not simply from fresh capital entering the market. (Decrypt)
This distinction matters.
Price movement tells us what happened.
Capital flows help us understand why.
For the next stage, I’m watching:
① ETF net flows
② Stablecoin liquidity
③ On-chain activity
④ BTC dominance and capital rotation
⑤ Whether ETH and selected altcoins can attract sustainable demand
My view:
A strong weekly inflow is a positive signal, but one week does not confirm a new market cycle.
The real signal will be whether capital continues to enter after the initial rebound loses momentum.
Follow the data, not the noise.#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元
The storage sector is starting to focus on core capabilities.
What does this have to do with the crypto world?
First, the storage leader extending its efforts to R&D indicates that AI storage is not a short-term pulse. For the AI track and DePIN projects in the crypto market, the computing power infrastructure is still expanding, hardware costs won’t drop in the short term, but the fundamental demand side is stable.
Second, this is a strategic positioning, not short-term speculation. For long-term investors, the certainty of this track is increasing, but the process won’t be smooth.
Here’s my take.
Storage giants have moved from competing on capacity to competing on technology routes. Micron’s $10 billion bet is that AI storage is not a three-to-five-year cycle but a long-term track starting from a decade. Even with full HBM capacity, supply is insufficient; next-generation storage architectures, advanced packaging, and the integration of storage and computing are the real battlegrounds. Whoever figures this out first will continuously claim the largest share at the foundational layer of AI hardware.
For miners and AI computing power projects, this news means—don’t expect hardware costs to drop in the short term; the giants are paving the way for long-term demand, not waiting for demand to cool down.
Bitcoin is currently volatile; this Micron news has no direct impact on BTC, but the direction is clear—the long-term demand for AI storage is continuously being confirmed, and the expansion of computing power infrastructure will not stop.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP What truly deserves attention in this market cycle may not be how much BTC has risen, but who is buying.
Recently, there has been a clear inflow of funds into US spot BTC and ETH ETFs. Just last week, the combined net inflow for BTC and ETH ETFs was about $2.6 billion; on August 19, BTC ETFs saw a single-day inflow of approximately $517 million, and ETH ETFs about $189 million. (MEXC)
This indicates a change:
Institutional funds are returning to the crypto market.
However, I will not directly conclude that "the bull market has arrived" because of this.
What truly needs further verification is:
① Whether ETF fund inflows can be sustained
② Whether stablecoin liquidity can expand in sync
③ Whether BTC’s rise is beginning to spread to ETH and quality altcoins
④ Whether on-chain real users and transaction activity are keeping pace
There is also a signal that is easy to overlook:
The US SEC proposed a new "Regulation Crypto Assets" framework this month, meaning crypto assets are further entering the traditional financial regulatory system. (Securities and Exchange Commission)
My judgment:
The next phase worth studying is not "which coin will surge," but which sectors are simultaneously gaining capital, user, and regulatory recognition.
Capital is the first layer of signal,
On-chain data is the second layer of verification,
Real demand is the final answer.
No chasing the rally, no hype.
Continue to seek opportunities where capital is entering but the market has not yet fully priced in.$MSTR token strengthened after hours to 123.34, but the RSI14 rising to 81.4 reveals overbought conditions and weakening momentum. The financing benefits and the divergence with the Nasdaq 100 tokens falling 0.97% form the current core contradiction.
The market shows a typical topping pattern, with the token price at 123.34 running below the Bollinger upper band at 126.96, leaving only a narrow space from the 30-period high of 128.08. The MACD red bars shrink as the price rises, combined with the slight positive premium of 0.58% corresponding to the underlying stock at 122.63, indicating that chasing funds lack incremental support before the resistance level.
In terms of driving factors, the initial buying impulse came from the news of $2 billion in financing without selling tokens, followed by the potential dilution expectation from authorized token sales starting to squeeze valuations inversely. The Nasdaq 100 tokens' 0.97% after-hours decline, representing a drop in market risk appetite, is becoming the key external force suppressing the token's breakthrough above the 128.08 high.
In the bullish scenario, if the US stock market opens with a tech sector rebound lifting overall sentiment, strong buying in the underlying stock will forcibly push the token to break through the 128.08 structural resistance. This scenario requires observing whether the token premium expands beyond 1%. Once it breaks 128.08 and the MACD red bars enlarge again, the technical overbought correction will be directly overwhelmed as momentum returns.
In the bearish scenario, high-level overbought triggers profit-taking, with the price retreating after being resisted at the 126.96 Bollinger upper band and pulling back to seek support. If the Nasdaq continues to be under pressure and the token breaks the 123.34 support, the divergence will be confirmed. The RSI14 falling from the high of 81.4 will open space for a correction toward the 120 level.
The failure point of the bearish logic is clearly set at the 30-period high of 128.08. If the underlying stock opens with volume and holds above 128.08, and the major index turns positive, the high-level consolidation will turn into a new trend rally, invalidating the bearish correction logic.
The core variables to watch in the next 24 hours are whether the underlying stock can digest the potential supply from authorized token sales below 128.08 after the US market opens, and whether the Nasdaq tokens can stop falling and repair the divergence.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战$BTC pulled out a big bullish candle this week, approaching $79,500 intraday. On the surface, it looks like sentiment in the crypto space is warming up, but the driving force might actually be on Wall Street's bond trading desks. The U.S. Treasury raised the liquidity repo limit for medium- and long-term government bonds, causing long-term yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, while gold and BTC both rose. This indicates that BTC is increasingly behaving like a highly elastic asset sensitive to dollar liquidity in the short term, rather than just an on-chain narrative asset.
From the chart, the early stage of the rally shows clear short covering, followed by a net inflow of about $2.6 billion into spot BTC and ETH ETFs over the week, which helped sustain the rebound into a trend. The key difference is: short covering can push prices higher but doesn't necessarily bring sustained buying; ETF inflows mean traditional capital is willing to allocate at higher levels, indicating better trend quality.
However, don't rush to interpret this as liquidity arriving and blindly turn bullish. Bond repos are a temporary tool, and whether the yield decline continues depends on inflation, employment, and Fed statements. More concerning is that implied volatility has clearly risen this round, but downside protection demand on the options side is weak, indicating the market is not well prepared for a pullback.
My view is that BTC is shifting from a single label as a safe-haven asset to an amplifier of macro liquidity changes. Going forward, the focus should not be on shouting new highs at round numbers, but on observing whether ETF net inflows continue, whether the dollar index weakens, and whether long-term U.S. Treasury yields keep falling.
(This is only my personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice) BTC: $1.9 Billion Backing the 80,000 Threshold, the Critical Bull-Bear Point Before Jackson Hole
As of August 25, BTC has rebounded to around $78,900, just a step away from the $80,000 round number. Since early August, it has rallied over 23% from the $64,000 low, marking the best monthly performance since 2026. Alongside the price rebound, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $1.9 billion, hitting a new high for the year and nearly 10 months, with market sentiment quickly shifting from extreme pessimism in the first half of the year to optimism. However, beneath the surface of massive capital inflows and new price highs, the market is approaching a critical juncture ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. The tug-of-war between capital support and trapped positions, as well as the gap between policy expectations and actual implementation, will jointly determine the medium-term direction.
The core of this rebound is the resonance of capital repair and short squeeze, rather than a fundamental trend reversal. On the macro level, the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations to suppress long-end yields, marginally easing dollar liquidity; combined with July’s core inflation falling more than expected, the market briefly raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in Q4 to 68%. BTC, highly sensitive to interest rates, was the first to see valuation repair. On the trading side, a large number of short positions accumulated near $60,000 were liquidated, with total short liquidations exceeding $2.7 billion, triggering a chain reaction of forced buying that further amplified upward momentum, creating a classic short squeeze scenario.
However, it must be clear that this capital inflow is essentially a reparative replenishment, not a full-scale entry of new funds. Looking at a longer timeline, BTC spot ETFs have still seen a net outflow of about $2.9 billion so far in 2026. This week’s massive inflow appears more like compensation for the continuous outflows in the first half of the year, rather than a trend reversal driven by large-scale new capital. The capital structure also shows strong concentration at the top: over 60% of the weekly inflow came from a single BlackRock IBIT product, while Grayscale GBTC continues to see redemptions, indicating capital is concentrating in leading institutions rather than a broad industry-wide rally. Institutional funds remain in a tentative allocation phase.
Changes in chip structure better illustrate the market phase. On-chain data shows that in the past week, exchanges have seen a net outflow of about 6,500 BTC, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking, reducing circulating active chips and solidifying bottom support from the supply side. But price stagnation near the $80,000 mark is evident, with two main pressures: first, the $78,000-$82,000 range is a dense historical trapped position zone formed at the end of 2025, where many retail holders await break-even, triggering concentrated selling pressure each time the price touches this area; second, early whales are distributing coins at highs, having sold over 7,700 BTC in the past three days, precisely suppressing upward momentum. This creates a game of "institutions building low-position support while trapped holders distribute at highs," making it difficult for BTC to break new highs in one go.
The key short-term variable is the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting from August 27-29, which will also be the first keynote speech by new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh at Jackson Hole. The market has already priced in a "neutral to dovish" expectation, but recent data shows the probability of maintaining rates in September has risen back to 69%, narrowing the expectation gap. Under the baseline scenario, Walsh will maintain a "data-dependent, no forward guidance" communication strategy without explicitly signaling September rate moves. BTC will likely continue to oscillate between $75,000 and $81,000, taking 2-3 weeks to digest trapped position pressure and steadily raise the average market holding cost. In an optimistic scenario, a dovish signal hinting at Q4 rate cuts could help BTC break the $80,000 threshold and test the $82,000-$83,000 chip gap zone. In a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance might trigger a pullback to $72,000-$73,000, but deep drops are unlikely due to institutional base support, and the price would return to an oscillating upward channel after correction.
In the medium term, the continuation of the rally depends on two points: whether the Fed officially starts a rate cut cycle in September, and whether BTC ETFs can maintain weekly net inflows above $1 billion. If both conditions are met, trapped positions will gradually be digested amid volatility, and BTC could challenge the previous high near $88,000 in Q4. If either is missing, the market will enter a wide-range oscillation. Overall, BTC is currently in the middle stage of valuation repair, with solid institutional capital backing and an intact medium-term oscillating upward pattern, but it has not yet entered a full bull market phase. The recommended approach is a mid-term strategy: hold a base position, accumulate in batches near $75,000 on dips, avoid chasing highs blindly or shorting lightly, and patiently wait for policy implementation to confirm direction. $BTC $ETH $DOGE Haven't specifically watched $MSTR for a long time. Tonight after the US market closed, its token kept pushing up, the stock closed up 2.83%, and the token premium was only 0.58%. This combination looks a bit awkward.
📰 News: The company raised $2 billion this round without selling Bitcoin, the stock sentiment was lifted after hours, but this feels more like a headline-driven spike. The market clearly hasn't fully digested the authorized coin sales part yet.
🔧 Technical: RSI14 has reached 81.4, such an overbought level is uncommon for MSTR; MACD is still a golden cross but the red bars have noticeably shortened, price is hugging the upper Bollinger band at 126.96, just a breath away from the 30-period high of 128.08, momentum is fading faster than I expected.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 token is still down -0.97% after hours, risk appetite clearly hasn't picked up. MSTR pushing up alone at this time is honestly very likely to be dragged back by overall market sentiment.
🎯 Today's view: I'm bearish. The news is somewhat positive but the technical overbought condition is obvious, the token still has a +0.58% positive premium, this after-hours acceleration feels more like an emotional spike rather than trend confirmation.
📊 Token 123.34 (+1.93%) | Stock 122.63 (+2.83%) | Premium +0.58% | US market after hours
#USStockToken
#MSTRAfterHours
#OverboughtCorrection Here's something no one is paying attention to now but will have to be dealt with eventually: The U.S. Treasury just established a "Quantum Security Task Force" specifically to push the financial system to replace the current encryption algorithms. The reason is—when quantum computers mature, the current encryption system will be cracked. And the security of the coins you hold depends on this system. Sounds scary, right? Don't rush to sell off your positions: this is a threat on a decade-long scale, not tonight's market. I'm not bringing this up to cause panic, but to say—real black swan events never happen where everyone is shouting about them every day on the timeline; they grow slowly in those corners where "everyone thinks it's still too early." You can trade short-term, but your understanding needs to be long-term. $BTC BTC: Short Squeeze Sentiment Recedes, Market Enters Fundamental Verification Window
After the violent short squeeze rally in mid-August, BTC quickly dropped from the $79,400 high, then entered a narrow consolidation range between $75,000 and $78,000. In just one week, market sentiment shifted rapidly from an extremely overheated short squeeze atmosphere to a rational game under policy watchfulness. This pulse-like rally driven by short liquidation, liquidity repair, and ETF fund replenishment has come to an end. The upcoming market phase will enter a true fundamental verification period—where the sustainability of institutional funds, the direction of Federal Reserve policy, and the digestion progress of trapped positions will collectively determine whether this rebound is a mid-term reversal or a short-term bounce.
Capital flow signals best illustrate the stage changes of the market. From August 17 to 21, over five trading days, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a cumulative net inflow of $1.92 billion, marking the highest single-week record since October 2025. BlackRock's IBIT single product contributed over 60% of the increase, showing a clear feature of concentrated institutional buying. However, as the price surged near the $80,000 mark, the inflow slope noticeably slowed, with daily inflows in the last three trading days falling back to the $100-200 million range, shifting from pulse buying to steady absorption. Notably, Grayscale GBTC redemptions continue, and there remains a capital divergence between leading new products and traditional ones, indicating that this round of capital inflow is essentially an institutional transfer of existing chips rather than a full-scale bull market entry of incremental funds.
On-chain data also confirms the market's gear shift. In the past two weeks, the entire network's exchange BTC cumulative net outflow exceeded 13,000 coins, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking. The trend of decreasing circulating active chips remains unchanged, solidifying bottom support from the supply side. However, the net outflow speed has clearly slowed compared to the rebound peak period. Meanwhile, the derivatives market shows cooling signals: perpetual contract open interest has fallen about 8% from its high, and the funding rate has dropped from a positive 0.03% to a neutral 0.01%, indicating that previously clustered leveraged longs are gradually reducing positions, short-term speculative sentiment is receding, and the market is shedding leveraged bubbles, moving toward a healthier turnover phase.
The current core market struggle centers on the tug-of-war between "upper trapped position pressure" and "lower institutional bottom support." When the price approaches the $80,000 integer mark, the stagnation is obvious. The core resistance comes from two layers: first, the $78,000-$82,000 range is a dense historical trapped position area formed at the end of 2025, where many retail chips await unlocking, causing concentrated selling pressure each time the price touches it; second, early entry large whales are distributing at highs, having sold over 7,700 coins in the past three days, precisely suppressing the upward momentum. On the downside, the $75,000 line is the core cost zone for this round of institutional accumulation, with clear buying intervention each time the price dips here, forming solid support.
The key short-term variable is the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting from August 27-29, which is also the first Jackson Hole appearance of new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh. Under the baseline scenario, Walsh maintains a "clear target, ambiguous path" communication strategy without explicitly giving a September rate guidance. BTC will likely continue to oscillate and turnover between $74,000 and $80,000, using time to digest trapped position pressure. In an optimistic scenario, the speech releases dovish signals, hinting at a rate cut path in Q4, allowing BTC to leverage capital relay to break through the $80,000 mark and test the $82,000-$83,000 chip gap zone. In a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance may trigger a pullback to the $72,000 line, but with institutional bottom support, a deep drop is very unlikely, and the market will return to a consolidation uptrend channel after correction.
From a mid-term perspective, the key to whether the market can continue lies in two points: first, whether the Fed officially starts a rate cut cycle in September; second, whether BTC ETFs can maintain a weekly net inflow pace above $1 billion. If both conditions are met, trapped positions will gradually be digested amid oscillation, and BTC is expected to challenge the previous high of $88,000 in Q4. If either is missing, the market will enter a wide-range oscillation. Overall, BTC is currently in the middle stage of valuation repair. The short-term sentiment cooldown does not change the mid-term repair logic. Operationally, it is suitable to adopt a mid-line strategy, accumulating in batches at support zones on pullbacks, avoiding blind chasing of highs, and patiently waiting for policy confirmation of direction. $BTC $ETH $DOGE Recently, a voice in market sentiment has grown louder: shorting Yushu seems to have become a highly profitable business. This judgment is not baseless; the core logic is that the current valuation of this company by the market has far exceeded the realistic pace of technology implementation and commercial monetization. 🧐 From the data perspective, Unitree's market value in the A-share market once surged to 400 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio soaring to 500 times, peaking close to 1000 times. This figure stands out in any mature market. What's even more alarming is that this company neither develops its own AI large model nor has a massive data accumulation as a moat, yet enjoys capital pricing comparable to top-tier tech leaders. Tech companies allow a certain degree of valuation bubbles, but if a bubble is detached from its fundamental foundation, it becomes a dangerous belief. Why does the market offer such prices? Part of the reason is the intense enthusiasm of capital for the robotics sector, and another is the inertia of chasing scarce themes in the A-share market. When the narrative itself becomes the basis for pricing, the valuation system easily becomes distorted. In the short term, sentiment can still push prices for a while, but over time, performance and R&D capabilities will eventually be reckoned with. 🤔 From a trading perspective, this structure does offer attractive odds for short selling, but it's important to clearly recognize that shorting a strong stock grouped by capital not only means bearing price volatility pressure, but also facing the cost of short selling and short squeeze risk. Even if the logic is correct, irrational market times may exceed your patience with your positions. Back at the broader market, Bitcoin entered after surging💣 The United States has officially launched an "economic all-out attack" on Iran.
Basent announced an "unprecedented" economic action in the early hours of the 25th, aiming to cut off Iran's connection with the global economy. The focus is on five "lifelines" — digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. Digital assets are placed as the first priority.
This is the first time the crypto industry has been explicitly included on the front line of geopolitical economic sanctions. Iran has been using cryptocurrencies to bypass sanctions in recent years, and now the U.S. Treasury directly names digital assets, meaning compliance institutions will face stricter scrutiny, and exchanges may be forced to strengthen screening of Iran-related addresses.
The transmission chain to BTC is very clear: sanctions escalate → Hormuz blockade continues → oil prices remain high → inflation expectations hard to ease → Federal Reserve dares not loosen → risk assets under pressure. Iran has responded with an "oil export countermeasure," with actual throughput significantly declining. Basent said this is just the beginning, and Iran shows no sign of backing down.
Will the crypto industry get caught up? It's not a question of if, but that it already has. 👇BTC: Supply contraction meets capital replenishment, mid-term pricing logic hidden in the volatility
Since August, BTC has staged the strongest rebound of the year, surging from a low of $64,000 to the $79,000 mark, with a single-week gain exceeding 23%, marking the best weekly performance since 2026. As of August 25, BTC price returned to the $79,000 level, and market sentiment has rapidly recovered from extreme pessimism in the first half of the year. This rally is not merely an emotional oversold rebound but a resonance result of structural supply contraction on the supply side and institutional capital replenishment on the demand side. Although short-term pressure exists from the $80,000 resistance and the policy test of the Jackson Hole meeting, the mid-term pricing logic is quietly changing.
The structural supply contraction on the supply side is the underlying support most easily overlooked in this rally. On-chain data shows that in the past two weeks, the net outflow of BTC from all exchanges exceeded 13,000 coins, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking, reducing the circulating active supply. Meanwhile, BTC mined has approached 20 million coins, accounting for over 95% of the 21 million cap. After the halving of block rewards, new supply continues to decline, with only about 13,500 new coins produced monthly, far less than the weekly absorption volume of institutional ETFs. The incremental absorption on the demand side combined with the contraction of circulating supply on the supply side fundamentally narrows the downside price space, which is the core reason why this correction has remained limited.
The capital side recovery is the direct trigger but essentially a restorative replenishment rather than an incremental bull market. Data shows that the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $1.9 billion in a single week, the highest weekly record since October 2025, with BlackRock's IBIT product contributing over 60% of the increment, showing a clear concentration of top institutions increasing positions. However, looking over a longer timeframe, BTC spot ETFs have still had a cumulative net outflow of about $2.9 billion in 2026 so far. This week's massive inflow appears more like a compensatory repair for the continuous outflows in the first half of the year rather than a trend reversal with large-scale new capital entering. The capital structure also shows a strong concentration effect at the top; traditional products like Grayscale are still being redeemed, and funds are concentrating in top institutions rather than a broad industry-wide rally, indicating institutional capital is still in an exploratory allocation phase, not fully bullish.
The market's game pattern also confirms this. When the price approaches the $80,000 integer mark, the stagnation is obvious, with core pressure from two layers: first, the $78,000-$82,000 range is a dense historical trapped position area formed at the end of 2025, where many retail holders await break-even, triggering concentrated selling pressure each time the price touches it; second, early-entry large whales are distributing at highs, having sold over 7,700 coins cumulatively in the past three days, precisely suppressing the rally rhythm. The interplay of buying low by institutions to support the bottom and selling high by trapped holders creates a game pattern that makes it difficult for BTC to break new highs in one go, more likely digesting selling pressure gradually through volatile upward movement.
The core variable for short-term trends is the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting at the end of August, which is also the first Jackson Hole speech by new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh. Under the baseline scenario, Walsh maintains ambiguous statements without clearly ruling out a rate cut path, and BTC is likely to continue oscillating between $75,000 and $81,000, taking 2-3 weeks to digest trapped position pressure and steadily raise the market's average holding cost; under an optimistic scenario, the speech clearly signals a rate cut in Q4, and BTC could leverage capital relay to break through the $80,000 mark and test the $82,000-$83,000 chip gap area; under a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance may trigger a pullback to $72,000-$73,000, but the probability of a deep drop is very low given institutional base positions and supply contraction support, with a return to the volatile upward channel after correction.
From a mid-term perspective, if the Fed officially starts a rate-cut cycle in September and BTC ETFs maintain a net inflow pace of over $1 billion per week, trapped positions will gradually be digested in volatility, and Q4 could challenge the previous high of $88,000; if rate cuts are delayed and capital inflows slow, the market will enter a wide oscillation range between $73,000 and $80,000. Overall, BTC is currently in the mid-stage of valuation repair, with supply contraction solidifying the bottom and institutional capital providing solid support. The mid-term volatile upward pattern remains intact but has not yet entered a full bull market phase. Operationally, a mid-term strategy is suitable: hold base positions, accumulate in batches near $75,000 on pullbacks, avoid blindly chasing highs or shorting lightly, and patiently wait for policy confirmation after implementation. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 During the bull market launch, crypto stocks are highly likely to significantly outperform Bitcoin. In the last bull market (launched in 2023), crypto stocks substantially outperformed Bitcoin during the main rally phase (2023-2024), with a full-line outperformance in 2023 (expectation fermentation period), sharp divergence in 2024 (leverage and fundamentals going separate ways), and overall underperformance in 2025 (high Beta backlash). The pattern of stocks being especially affected by regulatory events is very clear: crypto stocks show the greatest elasticity during the expectation fermentation period, while on the day of positive news realization, "sell the news" is often observed. From a three-year cumulative perspective: MSTR achieved about 20x over 2023-2024 (three-year CAGR approximately 144%), far exceeding BTC's roughly 4.4x in the same period; however, if held until August 2026, MSTR experienced a maximum drawdown from its peak of about 74%, compared to BTC's approximately -50% drawdown (from the October 2025 peak near $126K), confirming the downside amplification of high Beta. 1. In 2023: The expectation of SEC regulatory easing was the primary driver of the market. BlackRock's submission of a spot ETF application in June was a watershed moment, with BTC starting from around $25,000; on August 29, Grayscale defeated the SEC in court, directly opening the ETF conversion channel. For the full year, COIN +391%, MSTR +346%, GBTC +The buyback announcement Wednesday. The verdict by Friday: 30yr: 5.34% → 5.18% → back to 5.27%. The buyback rally fizzled in 36 hours. Bessent already talking bigger size before operation one even runs (Sep 9th) Gold: $4,324 Wednesday morning → through $4,600 by Friday. Highest since May, ~5% on the week Silver: $70. Gold/silver ratio compressing, the whole monetary complex bid, not just gold DXY: 3-month lows Read it carefully. Yields round-tripped. The metals didn't That's the market saying tw#Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Walsh Clarify the Policy Path?
Every late August, the global market's attention focuses on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA. This annual economic policy symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Fed, has long been the "super barometer" for global central bank policy signals. The 2026 Jackson Hole meeting is even more special than usual—the market stands at a delicate crossroads: inflation is falling but remains sticky, economic growth is slowing but not yet in recession, and Bitcoin is repeatedly tugged in a rhythm of "sharp rises and slow declines," with a severe lack of directional clarity.
Everyone's questions point to one person: Federal Reserve Chair Walsh. Can he provide a clear policy path from the Jackson Hole podium? For the Bitcoin market, this could be the key variable determining the trajectory for the second half of the year.
1. Why is the market so eager for "clarity"?
Over the past year, the Fed's policy signals have swung between "hawkish" and "dovish." Inflation data has been inconsistent, the labor market has fluctuated between strong and weak, and market expectations for the timing and magnitude of rate cuts have oscillated like a pendulum. This uncertainty has tormented risk assets, especially Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to liquidity expectations. Unlike gold, which has a physical anchor, or bonds, which have coupon protection, its price is almost entirely driven by marginal liquidity and risk appetite. When the market expects the Fed to pivot to easing, Bitcoin often rallies first; when those expectations are disappointed or delayed, Bitcoin quickly falls back.
The problem is that this "expectation trading" is becoming increasingly short-lived. Positive rumors can push Bitcoin up 5% or even 10% within hours, but without substantial follow-up capital, the price then drifts downward for weeks. This pattern of sharp rises and slow declines expresses the market's anxiety over unclear policy paths.
Therefore, every word Walsh utters at Jackson Hole could be magnified by the market. People crave not just a direction but a "definite path" to anchor expectations.
2. Walsh's dilemma: wants clarity but it's very difficult
However, whether Walsh can provide a clear path is itself a huge question mark.
From an inflation perspective, although overall CPI has dropped significantly from its peak, core service inflation remains quite sticky. Price pressures in housing, healthcare, insurance, and other subcategories have not fully eased. If Walsh prematurely commits to rate cuts, a rebound in inflation could trigger a credibility crisis for the Fed.
From a growth perspective, while the U.S. economy is slowing, consumption and employment have not experienced a cliff-like drop. This "soft landing" middle ground gives the Fed room to remain patient but also makes the policy path more ambiguous—there is neither an urgent need to cut rates nor sufficient reason to continue hiking.
More complex are the fiscal and political pressures. The U.S. federal debt continues to balloon, and interest expenses in a high-rate environment have become a huge fiscal burden. Political pressure on the Fed never ceases, especially around election cycles, challenging the independence of monetary policy. If Walsh signals too clear an easing path, it might be seen as political compromise; if too hawkish, he could be accused of exacerbating economic risks.
In this situation, Walsh's most likely choice is to be "principally clear but vague on details"—acknowledging the need for a policy shift but refusing to provide a specific timeline or magnitude. Such a statement might be equivalent to "saying nothing" for the market.
3. Two scenario analyses for the Bitcoin market
If Walsh delivers a more dovish signal than expected at Jackson Hole—such as clearly hinting at a September rate cut or even discussing an end to balance sheet reduction—Bitcoin will likely experience a rapid surge. This rally could be very intense, as long-suppressed bullish sentiment would be unleashed, and short covering in derivatives markets would amplify gains.
However, caution is warranted regarding the sustainability of such a sharp rise. Currently, there are no clear signs of incremental capital entering the Bitcoin market; on-chain activity, stablecoin supply, and ETF net inflows do not show the strong signals typical of a bull market's early stage. If the rally is driven solely by policy expectations without real liquidity follow-through, prices are likely to fall back into a prolonged downtrend—another "sharp rise, slow decline" trap.
The other scenario is that Walsh remains vague or leans hawkish. In this case, Bitcoin may not experience a sharp single-day drop but will continue a slow downtrend. The market has partially priced in the "uncertainty" expectation; lacking new negative or positive catalysts, prices can only drift downward with low volatility, awaiting the next trigger.
Whichever scenario unfolds, Bitcoin's direction ultimately hinges on one core question: is liquidity truly improving? Clarifying the policy path is only a change in expectations, but a Bitcoin bull market requires sustained real capital inflows. If Walsh's speech does not bring actual monetary easing, any rebound may be short-lived.
4. Jackson Hole is not the end point
The market often overestimates the short-term impact of events like Jackson Hole while underestimating their long-term significance. Walsh's remarks may provide a short-term sense of direction, but what truly determines Bitcoin's trend are the Fed's actual policy actions in the coming months and real changes in global liquidity.
For $BTC investors, rather than obsessing over whether Walsh is "clear," it is better to watch several more substantive indicators: whether the Fed truly begins a rate-cutting cycle, whether balance sheet reduction slows or stops, whether dollar liquidity expands again, and whether stablecoin supply continues to grow. These are the fundamental forces deciding whether Bitcoin can escape the "sharp rise, slow decline" quagmire.
As Jackson Hole approaches, market anxiety is understandable. But beneath the anxiety, calm is needed. Walsh may provide direction, but whether that direction translates into liquidity is the real watershed for Bitcoin. $ETH After the White House meeting, crypto regulation is really about to accelerate.
This time it's not just some KOL shouting.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, after attending the White House meeting, said something very weighty:
"We've never been this close to regulatory clarity."
Why do I feel this time is different?
On August 19, Trump called all the big players in the crypto industry like Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, as well as the SEC, CFTC, and traditional financial institutions to the White House to discuss crypto regulation.
The next day, the CFTC held its first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting.
What's even more interesting is that the table no longer only has people from the crypto world.
Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken are here, and traditional financial infrastructure like CME, Nasdaq, Cboe, DTCC are also here.
What does this mean?
It's simple.
The crypto industry is no longer the "you play by yourselves, we'll just watch" sector it used to be.
Now Wall Street, regulators, and crypto companies are discussing together:
How to modify the old rules to fit the current market.
Trump has also publicly called on Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, but problems remain—
The bill is still stuck in the Senate. #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Brothers, the US bond market is making big moves that could directly impact the direction of our crypto space.
The Treasury has been desperately trying to suppress long-term government bond yields, doubling the repo scale to $4 billion each time, but the market seems unconvinced. The 10-year yield remains at 4.7%, and the 30-year is above 5.2%, close to the highest in 19 years. Now the Treasury Secretary has hinted at possibly using part of the $940 billion in the Treasury account to buy bonds, which is essentially a disguised liquidity injection.
Why does this matter? Because long-term bond yields determine mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, stock valuations, and liquidity. If the Treasury succeeds in pushing yields down, financial conditions will ease, which is a solid positive for risk assets like $BTC and $ETH.
However, the bond market is still stubborn, with yields holding firm. This situation is getting more interesting: if yields continue to rise, it might force even more aggressive intervention. For us, keep an eye on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries; when they move, Bitcoin and Ethereum will very likely react accordingly.
Personally, I’m mostly out of positions now. I closed my $BTC long at 79,410, and my friends have only kept small residual positions. In times of macro uncertainty like this, I prefer to watch more and wait for policies to truly take effect and liquidity to arrive before entering again. Managing friends’ funds, stability comes first; I’m not chasing gains during this unclear period.
What do you think? Can the Treasury suppress yields? Let’s discuss in the comments. The US stock AI hardware sector suddenly came under pressure, with $AAOI quickly dropping sharply under the intense impact of profit-taking from previous gains and sudden sell-offs.
The visible decline on the board was accompanied by concentrated selling, with previously accumulated long positions showing clear signs of deleveraging and a stampede.
The sudden disclosure of a market-priced $600 million additional issuance plan directly triggered market panic over equity dilution and expansion of the circulating shares.
This event rapidly compressed risk appetite among investors, causing profit-taking and safe-haven funds to exit en masse in the short term, creating an immediate imbalance between liquidity absorption and the supply from the additional issuance.
If the rigid demand from AI data centers for high-speed optical modules can gradually absorb the shares, prices may regain momentum after stabilizing and push upward toward the $120 mark.
If the critical defense level near $85 is effectively broken, it would mean that the dilution pressure from the additional issuance fully suppresses buying interest, opening further downside.
If strong turnover with increased volume occurs at the $85 level and the price stabilizes, the current pessimistic expectations based on a one-sided stampede will be disproven.
One key variable to watch in the coming days is whether the $85 support level can remain effective amid the ongoing pressure from the additional issuance sell-off.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceXThe core driver of this round of $BTC rise comes from the capital side rather than the sentiment side: CVD buying remains strong, ETF funds maintain net inflows, and the funding rate is not excessively high—indicating that the current rise is not due to a rush of active long positions but more due to passive short covering triggered by stop-losses. Overall, the short-term trend is judged as a minor bull market, with a short-term bullish bias.
Two key variables to watch:
First, the global central bank annual meeting (Jackson Hole) this Friday, and whether Powell will release any statements related to balance sheet reduction;
Second, whether the market will use the meeting window to further release positive sentiment. Additionally, from a technical structure perspective, the current 4-hour level pullback is not yet complete, and short-term fluctuations are still possible.
Current positions and strategy:
Long-term: temporarily hold no position and wait for a clear weakening signal before considering short positions; if the price falls back to the $70,000–$71,000 range, switch to buying the dip.
Intraday: focus on oscillation between $74,000 and $79,000, doing short-term swing trades, avoiding chasing highs or catching bottoms, and entering and exiting quickly.
This judgment mainly indicates that the recent rebound is approaching the upper boundary of the box at the strong resistance zone of $80,600–$82,850—the upward momentum is strong, but the probability of stagnation near the key resistance level increases. Therefore, at this stage, maintain caution and respond with a range-bound approach rather than trend chasing. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $NVDA faces a seven-day losing streak along with a concentrated downturn in the memory sector, as funds tighten positions ahead of Wednesday's earnings report. The binary event pricing is extremely tight, and the AI capex guidance will directly reshape the overall risk asset preference.
$NVDA is experiencing its longest seven-day losing streak since 2022, while SK Hynix dropped 4.9% in a single day, Micron fell 5.8%, and SanDisk declined 6.4%. This cluster of declines indicates that liquidity is being withdrawn early from the chip and memory supply chain, focusing the game on the guidance gap in the after-hours earnings report.
The drivers are ranked as follows: expectations for the sustainability of AI capex, deleveraging demand from concentrated positions, and the liquidity contagion effect of high volatility transmitting to risk assets like the crypto market. When leveraged funds take high directional bets before earnings, crowded positions squeeze the margin for error, and market sensitivity to capital expenditure efficiency sharply increases.
The trigger for an upside scenario is earnings and next quarter AI capex guidance exceeding expectations. Variables to watch include whether implied volatility compresses quickly after hours and the strength of short covering. The failure signal for this scenario is if the stock gaps up but fails to reclaim previous pullback highs and quickly falls below the opening price on high volume.
If the above upside conditions are met, a short squeeze will directly restore risk appetite across the market, and the narrative of capital expenditure expansion will spill liquidity into other high-beta assets.
The trigger for a downside scenario is earnings guidance falling short of expectations or showing rising costs dragging down gross margins. Key to watch is whether the memory sector experiences a second wave of volume-driven breakdowns. The failure signal is if the stock opens lower intraday but is quickly bought back by institutions and closes flat.
Once guidance disappoints, a tech sell-off will accelerate deleveraging in risk asset positions, causing synchronized liquidity tightening across markets.
If both earnings data and guidance fall within market consensus ranges and after-hours price swings remain within implied volatility, the boundary conditions of this scenario fail, and the market will shift to sideways consolidation.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, the most important variables to observe are Wednesday after-hours $NVDA AI capex guidance figures and whether Micron and SK Hynix confirm a halt in volume declines after their earnings releases.
#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径BTC: The short squeeze rally has ended, and the volatile battle before Jackson Hole has just begun
In mid-August, BTC staged a violent short squeeze rally, surging from a low of $64,000 to a high of $79,400 in just four days, with a weekly gain exceeding 24%. The total short liquidations across the network surpassed $2.7 billion, setting the highest single-day liquidation record since 2021. However, after the surge, the market quickly entered a high-level consolidation phase, with prices oscillating repeatedly between $75,000 and $79,000, and the divergence between bulls and bears rapidly widening. This pulse rally, driven jointly by liquidity recovery and short squeeze, has come to a pause. The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting will be the key test that truly determines the medium-term direction.
The core of this rebound is a resonance pulse of three factors, rather than a fundamental trend reversal. On the macro level, the U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases, directly suppressing long-term U.S. Treasury yields, while the dollar index weakened simultaneously. The market interpreted this as marginal liquidity easing, leading risk assets to collectively undergo valuation repair; combined with July's core inflation data falling more than expected, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in Q4 quickly rose from 40% to 68%, with BTC, highly sensitive to interest rates, benefiting first. On the policy front, expectations for a customized regulatory framework for crypto assets by the SEC have intensified, marginally easing long-term compliance risks in the industry and restoring market risk appetite. On the trading side, previously overcrowded short positions were liquidated en masse during the rapid price surge, with forced liquidations further amplifying upward momentum, forming a typical short squeeze rally.
However, it must be clearly understood that this capital inflow is essentially a restorative replenishment, not a full-scale entry of incremental funds. Data shows that from August 17 to 20, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of about $1.6 billion over four trading days, marking the highest weekly net inflow since October 2025. But looking over a longer timeframe, BTC spot ETFs have still seen a cumulative net outflow of about $2.9 billion so far in 2026. This means the current massive inflow is more like a repair compensation for the continuous outflows in the first half of the year, rather than a trend reversal driven by large-scale new capital entering. The capital structure also shows a strong concentration at the top, with BlackRock's IBIT single product contributing over 60% of the incremental inflow, while Grayscale's GBTC continues to see redemptions, indicating funds are concentrating in leading institutions rather than a broad industry-wide rally.
Changes in chip structure better illustrate the nature of the market. During this rebound, leading ETF funds absorbed redemption selling pressure from traditional products, with chips shifting from short-term investors to long-term institutions. On-chain data confirms this: in the past two weeks, exchanges have seen a cumulative net outflow of over 13,000 BTC, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking, reducing active circulating chips and solidifying bottom support from the supply side. But price stagnation near the $80,000 integer mark is evident, with core resistance coming from two layers: first, the $78,000-$82,000 range is a dense historical trapped position area formed at the end of 2025, where many retail holders await break-even, triggering concentrated selling pressure each time the price touches this zone; second, early-entry large whales are distributing coins at highs, with over 7,700 BTC sold in three days, precisely suppressing the pace of the rally.
The core variable for short-term movement is the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August, which is also the first Jackson Hole speech by new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh. His style of "no forward guidance" since taking office tends to cause market volatility, and the market has already priced in a "neutral to dovish" expectation. In the baseline scenario, Walsh maintains vague statements without clearly ruling out a rate cut path, and BTC will likely continue to oscillate and rotate between $75,000 and $81,000, taking 2-3 weeks to digest trapped position pressure; in the optimistic scenario, the speech signals a clear rate cut in Q4, allowing BTC to leverage capital relay to break through the $80,000 mark and test the $82,000-$83,000 chip gap zone; in the pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance may trigger a pullback to $72,000-$73,000, but deep drops are unlikely due to institutional bottom support.
In the medium term, whether the rally continues depends mainly on the pace of rate cuts and the sustainability of ETF inflows. If the Fed officially starts a rate cut cycle in September and BTC ETFs maintain a weekly net inflow pace above $1 billion, trapped positions will gradually be digested amid consolidation, and Q4 could challenge the previous high near $88,000; if rate cuts are delayed and capital inflows slow, the market will enter a wide range consolidation between $73,000 and $80,000. Overall, BTC is currently in the middle stage of valuation repair, with solid institutional capital support and an intact medium-term upward consolidation pattern, but it has not yet entered a full bull market phase. Operationally, a mid-term strategy is suitable, buying on dips in batches without blindly chasing highs. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $548M of that volume, more than half of Derive’s total last week, came from BTC options alone.
Some of the largest BTC prints included:
- $154M Sep. 25 box-like financing package
- $49M Sep. 25 $75K/$80K call spread buy
- $48M Sep. 25 $70K/$75K call spread buy
- $30M Oct. 30 $55K/$65K put spread
The important point is that this options flow is driven by systematic yield and risk management strategies rather than one-off directional positioning. Watched the US stock after-hours all night, $MU's trend looks pretty ugly, the stock and token have almost no premium, and investors are too lazy to load funds.
📰 News: Barron's directly named the Chinese storage IPO putting pressure on Micron, customers spending $2.2 billion to expand production, and the CEO calling for 50% more memory in data centers couldn't stop the selling pressure; the market fell first out of respect.
🔧 Technical: Daily RSI14 is still 57.0, slightly strong, but MACD has a death cross and the green bars are expanding, price has already broken below MA7 and MA25, although 7/25 still maintains a bullish alignment, the short-term breakdown is quite real.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens fell 1.10% after hours, the market is uncooperative, liquidity is thin after hours, and MU token and stock are being pressed down together.
🎯 Today's view: Bearish today, the stock volume dropped below short-term moving averages, combined with news pressure from the Chinese IPO and token discount, the short-term structure clearly weakens. I lean towards continued weakness rather than rushing to expect a recovery.
📊 Token 908.95 (-5.86%) | Stock 910.43 (-5.83%) | Premium -0.16% | US stock after-hours
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#SemiconductorSector
#StorageChips Today, I want to talk about the token OKB. Its news is indeed lively, but behind the hype, we need to calmly examine the price position. On August 24, OKX CEO Star officially announced the launch of a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund, and Circle's USDC and cross-chain transmission protocol CCTP were also launched simultaneously on X Layer. This means stablecoin liquidity channels are directly connected, serving as a rare independent catalyst for the ecosystem. Among mainstream coins, projects with such exclusive narratives are rare. After the news broke, OKB's price quickly surged to around $212. However, if we look at the timeline a bit longer, on August 21 it just hit a record high of $239.91, then fell back to around $110. Today's rally feels more like a pulse-like rebound triggered by news rather than the start of a new trend. Here's a detail worth noting: quotes vary greatly between different data sources. OKX's own converter shows a price of about $110, while the news-driven transaction price reached $212. The split between buyers and sellers is quite sharp, indicating market sentiment is not aligned. Messari's data is also interesting: since the bull market peaked in 2021, only 22 tokens across the entire market have outperformed BTC, and OKB is the only one among them#AlibabaAIDilution
Alibaba isn't just betting on AI. It's asking shareholders to help fund it. Raising HKD80B gives the company serious firepower without adding more debt, but roughly 3.6% dilution means AI now has to earn its keep. Revenue growth of 45% sounds great until you pair it with surging capex and falling profit. If AI cash flow catches up, this financing could look smart. If not, shareholders funded an expensive race. The next test is returns, not spending.BTC: Behind the $1.9 Billion ETF Massive Inflow, Is It a Recovery Rally or a Bull Market Restart?
Since August, BTC has staged a dramatic rebound, rising from a low of $64,000 to near the $79,000 mark, with a weekly gain exceeding 22%. The entire network's short positions have been liquidated by over $2.7 billion, marking the largest short squeeze since 2021. Alongside the price rebound, the US spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $1.92 billion, hitting a new high for the year and the highest in nearly 10 months. Market sentiment quickly shifted from extreme pessimism to optimism. However, beneath this massive capital inflow lies a need to see the essence clearly: this is not a full bull market restart but a valuation recovery driven by improved macro expectations combined with institutional capital replenishment. In the short term, key resistance and policy challenges remain.
This rebound results from the resonance of three factors rather than a trend reversal. On the macro level, the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations to suppress long-term yields, marginally easing dollar liquidity; core inflation in July fell more than expected, and market expectations for a Fed rate cut in Q4 rose from 40% to 68%, directly benefiting the interest rate-sensitive BTC. On the policy front, expectations for the SEC's customized crypto regulatory framework have intensified, reducing compliance risks marginally. On the trading side, previously crowded short positions have been concentratedly closed, further amplifying upward momentum.
However, this capital inflow is essentially a restorative replenishment rather than a full-scale entry of new funds. Looking at a longer timeframe, since 2026, BTC spot ETFs have still seen a cumulative net outflow of about $2.9 billion. This week's massive inflow appears more like a compensatory recovery after continuous outflows in the first half of the year, rather than a trend reversal with large-scale new capital entering. The capital structure also shows concentration at the top: BlackRock's IBIT single product contributed over 60% of the incremental inflow, Grayscale's GBTC continues to redeem, with funds concentrating in leading institutions rather than a broad industry-wide rise.
The chip structure further clarifies the nature of the market. Leading ETF funds are absorbing redemption selling pressure from traditional products, with chips shifting from short-term investors to long-term institutions. On-chain data shows that in the past two weeks, exchanges have seen a net outflow of over 13,000 BTC, with whales continuously withdrawing coins to cold storage for locking, reducing circulating active chips and solidifying bottom support from the supply side. However, price stagnation is evident near $80,000, with core resistance from two layers: first, the $78,000-$82,000 range is a dense trapped position area formed at the end of 2025, triggering concentrated selling pressure each time it is touched; second, existing large whales are distributing at highs, having sold over 7,700 BTC in three days, precisely suppressing the pace of the rally.
Future Trend Forecast
Short term (1-2 weeks) centers on the Jackson Hole Symposium as a key inflection point. Under the baseline scenario, the Fed signals a neutral to dovish stance without ruling out rate cuts, and BTC is likely to oscillate between $75,000 and $81,000, consolidating trapped positions over 2-3 weeks and steadily raising the market's average holding cost. In an optimistic scenario, a clear signal of a Q4 rate cut is delivered, allowing BTC to leverage institutional capital to break through the $80,000 integer level and briefly test the $82,000-$83,000 early chip gap area. In a pessimistic scenario, unexpectedly hawkish remarks may trigger a pullback to $72,000-$73,000, but deep declines are unlikely due to institutional base support, and the price will return to the oscillating upward channel after correction.
Mid term (1-3 months) focuses on the pace of rate cuts and the sustainability of ETF inflows. If the Fed officially starts a rate-cutting cycle in September and BTC ETFs maintain a weekly net inflow pace above $1 billion, trapped positions will gradually be digested amid oscillations, and BTC may challenge the previous high of $88,000 in Q4. If rate cuts are delayed and capital inflows slow, the market will enter a wide oscillation range between $73,000 and $80,000, with the bottom gradually rising but lacking a trend-driven one-sided rally.
Overall, BTC is currently in the mid-stage of valuation recovery, with solid institutional capital support and an intact mid-term oscillating upward pattern, but it has not yet entered a full bull market. The recommended approach is a medium-term allocation strategy: hold base positions, accumulate in batches near $75,000 on dips, avoid blindly chasing highs or shorting lightly, and patiently wait for policy confirmation to determine direction. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 A message that's easy to overlook: the SEC has issued subpoenas to several major Wall Street banks to investigate the trading of an AI hedge fund called Situational Awareness. To translate—regulators are starting to scrutinize how "AI-driven money" actually flows in and out of the market. I've always had a gut feeling at the poker table: when everyone is reveling in a narrative, when "AI can pump" becomes an unquestioned consensus, that's often when someone starts to flip their cards. This doesn't mean a crash is imminent tomorrow; bubbles can inflate for a long time. But when regulators step in to investigate trading, it's usually a quiet bell in the emotional cycle. Don't rush to trade this as bad news; take it as a reminder: at the peak of euphoria, risk is quietly being priced in. $NVDA has fallen for the seventh consecutive day, marking the longest losing streak since 2022; on the same day, SK Hynix dropped 4.9%, Micron fell 5.8%, and SanDisk declined 6.4%, with the entire memory sector weakening together. After Wednesday's close, Nvidia's earnings report will be released. Some have already gone all-in with leverage betting on the direction—betting on a blowup or a collapse, with people on both sides. My view is simple: when the entire market's sentiment is pinned on a single earnings report, the most costly mistake is not being wrong in judgment, but treating a binary event as a certainty bet. The AI capex theme is now pulling the nerves of the entire risk asset market; if Nvidia sneezes, the coins in your hand will tremble as well. Before the event week, don't increase your position to the point of no return.