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Gold is testing historic highs and silver has pushed above $69, but the positioning data tells a different story. SPDR Gold Shares saw holdings fall by around 1.1 tons, while iShares Silver Trust dropped roughly 36 tons in one day. Price is making headlines. Capital flow deserves equal attention. When price rises while ETF holdings decline, the question isn’t simply “How high can it go?” — it’s “Who is buying, and who is distributing?” Chasing new highs without watching the flow can be an expensETH IS QUIETLY CLOSING THE GAP
The interesting part isn’t simply that ETF flows are still positive — it’s the share of new capital. On Aug. 25, BTC ETFs attracted +$29.95M, while ETH ETFs brought in +$25.75M — nearly the same, even though cumulative BTC ETF inflows remain far larger at $54.07B vs. $12.29B.
New capital is being allocated more evenly between BTC and ETH. If this continues, ETH could become the bridge for the next rotation into altcoins.Unitree's debut tested more than investor appetite; it tested how much price discovery can be trusted when free float is limited and initial price limits are absent. The move from RMB1,100 to RMB603.08 by Aug 24 looks severe, yet the shares remained about 300% above the IPO price.
H1 2026 revenue of roughly RMB1.152B and attributable net profit of RMB274M show genuine operating momentum. My measured read: a market cap above RMB240B now requires commercialization, orders and earnings to compound fast enough to replace scarcity with fundamental support. Until that evidence develops, volatility is part of the valuation debate, not merely noise. Not advice, just analysis.
#UnitreeValuationTest📊 $SUI Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Long positions went from extreme dominance to continuous exhaustion, with a 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeding $3.48 million, concentrated at 79%, showing an inverted V-shaped exhaustion trajectory...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $938.48 $892.89 $45.59
4 hours $23,300 $19,300 $4,066.86
12 hours $2,754,200 $2,676,300 $77,900
24 hours $3,488,200 $3,272,700 $215,600
In 1 hour, longs tested control with 19.6x leverage but only $892 volume, an ineffective scale; in 4 hours, long leverage dropped sharply to 4.75x with volume rising to $19,300; in 12 hours, longs surged to a peak of 34.3x leverage with volume soaring to $2,676,300; in 24 hours, long leverage dropped sharply to 15.2x, with $3,272,700 liquidated longs versus $215,600 shorts, totaling $3,488,200. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 79% of the 24-hour total, indicating high concentration—longs completed most of the harvesting within 12 hours. Long leverage collapsed from 34.3x to 15.2x, showing significant short squeeze momentum exhaustion. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; although the direction is bullish, the strength is weakening, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company choosing to stay put amid a surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability is in Question
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally is macroeconomic. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows about $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, ongoing spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels sanctioned.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. This is because the market had already priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Holds Steady: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or holding steady at current prices will be an important reference for market judgment on Bitcoin’s short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. $SUI contract longs collapsed from 34.3x to 15.2x leverage, with cumulative liquidation of $3.48 million and 79% concentration, showing significant short squeeze momentum exhaustion. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Nvidia's possible participation in Perplexity's new round matters less for the unknown check size than for the strategic direction. A valuation above $30B, more than 50% above the prior roughly $20B, would place Nvidia closer to the demand layer it supplies. With next-generation AI servers potentially costing over 15% more next year, backing model and app companies could support adoption. The measured concern is whether durable usage follows, or whether hardware demand becomes increasingly dependent on vendor-linked capital. Not advice, just analysis.
#NvidiaPerplexityBetSOL's meme market feels like a dance all night, and the music suddenly slows down. Have you noticed that when you open the trading panel recently, that impulse to "close your eyes and rush" quietly fades? My own feeling is that the SOL chain is still lively, but with a bit of reluctance amidst the excitement. The PUMP sector has rebounded strongly, but new stocks struggle to hold up decent valuations. What really alerts me is that copy trading is becoming increasingly crowded, with retail investors and bots crowded together, liquidity being cut too fragmented, and no one can freely enter or exit. In this environment, short-term funds instinctively look for directions with less resistance. So the question becomes: if SOL's meme narrative temporarily falls into fatigue, where will the money go? My observation is that ETH is being re-examined. Not because it suddenly became sexy, but because it was deep enough, stable enough, and able to accommodate large capital. When high-risk appetite begins to narrow, funds will prioritize flowing to places with higher certainty. LSD, restaking, and some established DeFi protocols in the ETH ecosystem may instead become containers for these sentiments. The scales of sector strength and weakness are quietly tipping. - SOL meme trading: may fluctuate in the short term, but marginal growth is weakening - ETH and ecosystem: more like a "safe haven," taking on tentative funds withdrawing from SOL - Overall counterfeit: differentiation will intensify, and the gap between storytellers and pure sentiment hype will widen. Some ask whether SOL will turn bearish because of this#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Good morning everyone!
$BTC BTC
The valuation anchor is the existing consensus plus external capital inflow, without internal output as a reference. The market does not look at on-chain revenue or user numbers; the core reference benchmarks are gold, alternative asset scale, and ETF holdings changes.
There are no reliable traditional valuation indicators like PE or PS; valuation mainly relies on historical percentiles, halving cycles, and institutional holdings for relative valuation. In a bull market, the focus is on how much incremental institutional capital can enter; in a bear market, whether consensus will be shaken. This creates a characteristic: significant price fluctuations can occur solely due to macro sentiment changes, even if fundamentals remain unchanged. Valuation completely depends on the external world's positioning of it; internally, it almost cannot create value to repair the price.
$ETH ETH
The valuation anchor is the expected cash flow from infrastructure, making it the closest to traditional equity valuation logic among the three. The market references mainnet fees, burn volume, staking APY, ecosystem TVL, and RWA scale to price it.
Theoretically, the higher the on-chain revenue, the higher ETH's intrinsic value. But the practical dilemma is that a large amount of business has shifted to L2, diverting value captured by the mainnet, so actual cash flow received is less than the overall ecosystem growth. It's like the entire ecosystem is growing rapidly, but the token itself cannot fully capture the dividends. Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainty imposes a risk discount on valuation. Therefore, ETH often shows strong ecosystem data but average price performance, with the valuation anchor disturbed by external factors.
$SOL SOL
Almost no stable valuation anchor exists. On-chain data like TVL and transaction volume fluctuate greatly, mostly driven by meme speculation, producing no sustainable profits, making it difficult to convert into a reasonable token price. The market mostly uses "market cap comparison relative to other public chains" for speculation.
In market phases, the market is willing to give a very high growth premium; when the hype fades, the premium is quickly wiped out. It has no cash flow anchor, no strong institutional holding anchor, nor a hard cap anchor. Price depends more on how much imagination the market is willing to give the new generation public chain. Valuation is emotion-driven, prone to severe overvaluation or undervaluation, making it hard to judge value with traditional indicators.
Summary: BTC relies on external consensus capital for valuation; ETH tries to use on-chain cash flow for valuation but is weakened by L2 and regulation; SOL has no stable valuation anchor and is determined by market sentiment premium.
In the current market, BTC valuation rises with institutional expectations, ETH valuation is suppressed by L2 diversion, and SOL's premium is entirely based on market risk appetite. Once sentiment recedes, assets without stable valuation anchors will experience larger corrections. 81240 one-day trip, the bulls popped the champagne too early last night 🍾
$BTC current price 78700. Yesterday intraday surged to 81240, a three-month high, but the US market crashed at the close, ending nearly 1% down—80000 gained then lost. Weekly +24%, the best weekly gain in three years, starting to pay back this morning.
Three details:
First, the fire was lit by the "national team." The US Treasury doubled long bond repurchases from 2 billion to 4 billion, the market directly interpreted this as a dollar credit easing, triggering a "devaluation trade": gold surged to 4662, and Bitcoin followed suit.
Second, shorts were forced out by 7 billion. Over the week, the entire network's short liquidations exceeded 7 billion dollars, with 645 million on the 25th alone—a stampede-style short squeeze, meaning shorts bought the price up themselves.
Third, smart money is quietly cashing out. Short-term whales cashed out 1.2 billion in three days, 53,000 BTC returned to exchanges, the most since June; Strategy hasn't acted for two weeks, with unrealized profits of 4 billion but no additional positions. Tonight's PCE and the 28th Jackson Hole event, the answers are on the way.
Key levels: above 80000, 81240 (if held, look to 83000); below 77500, 75800.
In short: 81240 is a test, 78500 is a shakeout, 83000 is the real battle. Hold tight on spot, don't bet on direction before PCE 💅
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 The most anticipated event tonight is Nvidia's after-hours earnings report (FY2027 Q2), but Morgan Stanley gave it a credit rating for the first time, assigning a neutral rating. They said Nvidia is using its own balance sheet to inject capital into the entire AI ecosystem, collaborating with six financial giants on financing deals exceeding $500 billion, involving guarantees, leases, and revenue sharing—all these risks are not visible through traditional metrics.
However, the stock price stabilized on Tuesday, rising 2.19% to end a seven-day losing streak, with a market cap of $5.16 trillion.
Client OpenAI said their self-developed chip Jalapeno outperformed Nvidia's GB300 in testing, but added that it won't fully replace Nvidia and they will continue to purchase in large quantities. The timing just before the earnings report feels less like a technical update and more like a negotiation tactic. It surprised me— the crazier the chip sales, the more eager the client is to build their own.
The real test is tonight, early Thursday Beijing time: can the growth sustain a $5 trillion market cap? This is much more concrete than Morgan Stanley's rating. 😂 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 39 State Banking Associations Join Forces to "Build Their Own Chain" — The U.S. Banking Industry Is Refusing to Be a "Passerby" in the Crypto World
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📊 1. Event Overview: The Largest Blockchain Joint Action in U.S. Banking History
On August 26, banking associations from 39 U.S. states jointly established the "BankChain Alliance," planning to launch an industry-owned blockchain network by 2027.
The project is temporarily chaired by Kathy Kraninger, CEO of the Florida Bankers Association and former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The alliance clearly states that the network will be "industry-owned, industry-designed, and industry-governed," and interoperable with other networks. Currently, the project is still seeking technical partners.
🏛️ 2. Who Is Driving This? — 39 State Banking Associations Representing the Majority of U.S. Banks
The 39 state banking associations represent the interests of the vast majority of community and regional banks in the U.S. The Texas Bankers Association explicitly stated that the alliance will help banks of all sizes offer emerging digital services such as tokenized deposits to their customers.
This is not a "pilot" by a few banks but a collective action by the entire U.S. banking system. When banking associations from 39 states sign an agreement simultaneously, it sends a clear signal: the banking industry is no longer content to be "disrupted" but has decided to build its own chain.
🔧 3. What Will They Do? — Smart Payments, Tokenized Deposits, Stablecoins
The blockchain network planned by the BankChain Alliance will focus on three core applications:
1. Smart Payments: blockchain-based real-time, automated payment settlement
2. Tokenized Deposits: converting bank deposits into on-chain tokens to enable 24/7 circulation
3. Stablecoins: industry-owned stablecoin infrastructure
"Industry-owned" is the keyword — banks no longer want to rely on third-party blockchains (such as Ethereum or Solana) but want to control the underlying technology stack themselves.
🔥 4. Why Now?
Background 1: Washington’s "Policy Conflicts" Have Lasted for Years
The policy battle between the U.S. banking industry and the crypto sector in Washington has been ongoing for years. Banks strongly opposed the stablecoin yield provisions in the CLARITY Act, arguing that allowing stablecoins to pay interest would cause deposits to flow out of the banking system. But opposition aside, the trend will not stop just because banks dislike it — the emergence of the BankChain Alliance shows that banks have realized: rather than resisting blockchain, they should build their own chain.
Background 2: Custodia Bank’s "Regulatory Guerrilla Warfare"
Wyoming’s Custodia Bank has been providing banking services to crypto companies since June 2023. In the context of traditional banks avoiding crypto business, it has become a core banking partner for digital asset companies. This "regulatory arbitrage" is forcing traditional banks to accelerate their actions.
Background 3: RWA and Tokenization Are Inevitable
The tokenized stock market has grown from 5% at the beginning of the year to 15%, with a total market value of about $2.8 billion; monthly crypto card transaction volume has exceeded $1 billion. As stablecoin payments become the "new infrastructure" for daily consumption, if banks do not act, they will become "pipelines" rather than "platforms."
⚔️ 5. What Does This Mean for the Crypto Market?
1. This Is Not "Embracing Crypto" but "Building Their Own System"
The BankChain Alliance is not cooperating with Ethereum or Solana but building its own chain. The signal it sends is: banks want the technological advantages of blockchain but do not want the crypto world’s "decentralization" and "permissionless" ideology. Industry-owned and industry-governed — this is the banks’ direct response to "public chain dominance."
2. The Stablecoin Market Landscape May Be Reshaped
If the BankChain Alliance successfully launches industry-owned stablecoin infrastructure, the use cases for USDC and USDT within the U.S. banking system could be significantly compressed. Banks do not want Circle or Tether to become the "central bank of stablecoins" — they want to be the central bank themselves.
3. The "Supply Side" of RWA Will Undergo a Major Transformation
Once tokenized deposits are implemented, it means trillions of dollars in bank deposits can directly circulate on-chain. This will far exceed the current $2.8 billion tokenized stock market scale.
💎 6. Summary
The collaboration of 39 state banking associations to "build their own chain" marks a landmark event in the U.S. banking industry’s shift from "passive defense" to "active offense." When banks realize blockchain is not optional but mandatory, their choice is not to join someone else’s chain but to build their own.
The BankChain Alliance’s 2027 target gives the industry a window of more than two years. But the direction is clear: banks are becoming new players in the blockchain world, not the ones being disrupted. For the crypto industry, this means future competition will no longer be "crypto vs. traditional" but "whose chain can serve more real-world assets." Gold holding near its highs after breaking $4,600/oz puts the bull case at an important test. Citi's $4,800 near-term target and $5,000 longer-term target may shape expectations, but the more durable signal is whether capital keeps following the narrative: gold ETFs added over 28 tonnes last week, while a Fidelity International manager rapidly reached the fund's 5% cap.
My read is that financial inflows can extend momentum, yet physical demand may decide whether higher targets become a floor rather than a ceiling. If buying fades at record levels, debt and dollar-credibility concerns may already be heavily reflected. Not advice, just analysis.
#GoldBullCaseBuildsThe Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the July PCE Price Index—will be released on August 26, with economists expecting a 3.6% year-over-year increase.
This is the smallest annual increase in four months but still far above the Fed's 2% target.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio suggests selling bonds and buying gold and Bitcoin as the debt crisis approaches, a view that is gaining resonance among more macro investors.
The 80,000 level has already been touched, but before Wash speaks, the market remains cautious. Bassett failed to hold the long bonds, and whether Wash can provide a clear inflation path signal will determine if this rally continues or stalls. $BTC $BTC briefly surged above $80,000 before retreating, currently fluctuating around $79,000 with repeated tug-of-war, as the bulls' momentum failed to hold the psychological threshold. $ETH is consolidating in line with the broader market, oscillating narrowly around the $2,500 mark, with direction still unclear.
The foundation of this rebound lies in the strong intervention of institutional funds. Last week in the US spot ETF market, BTC and ETH combined net inflows reached nearly $2.6 billion, with continuous incremental capital providing solid buying support for the market, which is key to sustaining the depth of this rally.
The rise in risk appetite stems from a dual logic: the US Treasury's promotion of long-term bond repurchases marginally releases liquidity, benefiting overall risk asset valuations; simultaneously, the market is pricing in an increasingly clear US crypto regulatory framework ahead of time, with improved institutional expectations continuously attracting external capital to test crypto assets.
However, caution is needed as rapid short-term gains have led to a high accumulation of profit-taking chips from low positions, putting the market at risk of pullback at any time. Whether the subsequent trend can continue will hinge on the sustainability of ETF capital inflows as the core validation signal.
If ETF net inflows remain strong, BTC and ETH are expected to organize another offensive to challenge previous highs; if inflows significantly slow and incremental capital gaps appear, the rebound will likely shift into a high-level box consolidation, with frequent spikes and dual-sided liquidations becoming the norm.
Short-term aggressive chasing of gains is not advisable. Although the major trend has support, price elasticity at high levels is amplified, so strict position control is essential, closely monitoring marginal changes in capital flow.🛡️
$OKB
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Thailand is also getting a piece of the pie.
Asia's second crypto ETF market is taking shape.
On August 26, the Thai Securities and Exchange Commission officially released a draft of the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF rules, with public consultation ending on September 20.
The core requirements of the rules are simple: each ETF tracks only one asset, either Bitcoin or Ethereum, with an annual average net exposure of no less than 80%. Trading will be limited to the Stock Exchange of Thailand, and investors can gain crypto exposure through regular securities accounts without needing to open accounts on cryptocurrency exchanges. Custody will, in principle, be handled by licensed local institutions in Thailand, with overseas custody only allowed if local arrangements are not feasible.
The logic behind this framework is clear—let local asset management companies get started first, keeping management fees and trading activities within Thailand, rather than directly introducing foreign ETF products to compete with local institutions.
Thailand is the second Asian economy after South Korea to formally advance a crypto ETF framework. South Korea is pushing for a Bitcoin ETF, while Thailand has even released draft detailed rules. Asia's regulatory path is forming its own independent rhythm—not fully following the U.S., nor completely rejecting crypto assets.
For the market, Thailand's market size is not large, but once this framework is implemented, it will provide a regulatory reference model for other Southeast Asian countries. Who will be next, Singapore or Malaysia? $BTC Bitcoin Returns to 80,000: A 24% Surge in One Week, But Don't Call It a Bull Run Yet
After three months, BTC has once again surpassed $80,000. It surged 24% from 63k in one week, marking the strongest weekly performance in nearly three years. Shorts liquidated over $4 billion, ETFs attracted $1.9 billion in a single week, and Treasury buybacks ignited depreciation trades — the script looks very promising.
But the most important thing to focus on this round is not the price, but the change in the way it’s rising.
It’s driven by macro factors rather than emotions. The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond buybacks, the dollar weakened, and gold and BTC strengthened in sync — this is capital repricing fiat credit, not retail FOMO.
Institutions are stepping in, but don’t overinterpret it. Last week’s ETF net inflow of $1.9 billion is indeed real money. However, since 2026, ETFs have overall seen net outflows; a one-week inflow ≠ a trend reversal.
Technically, it’s overbought. The fear index jumped from 40 to 83 in just six days. 80,000 is a psychological barrier; whether it can become a support level is the key.
There are only two things to really watch: whether the September 9 buyback execution can meet liquidity expectations, and whether ETF inflows can continue. Trends are never confirmed in just one week.
The market moves fast, but the safety margin does not. When the greed index hits 83, check your position management before considering adding more.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 81 on August 26, entering the "Extreme Greed" zone for the first time since the end of 2024.
A month ago, this number was 36 (Fear), 7 days ago it was 41 (Neutral), rising 45 points in 30 days.
Since CoinMarketCap started tracking, this is the only time it jumped directly from "Extreme Fear" to "Extreme Greed."
From the yearly low of 5 (Extreme Fear) on February 5 to 81 in August, it took six months to complete the round trip from total capitulation to extreme greed.
The narrative of "devaluation trade" is pushing, and sentiment indicators are also pushing. But Stockton's judgment is that Bitcoin is stuck in a middle position, neither oversold nor overbought. The direction has been chosen, but it’s not overheated yet. $BTC Miners are turning Bitcoin from their "main business" into a "side business."
The main reason is that they have found a more profitable venture.
On August 25, Bitdeer announced a new agreement with Soluna to deploy mining machines with 28 MW and 1.93 EH/s at Soluna's Kati 1 project starting in September.
Soluna is a wind energy data center operator, running 192 MW of data center capacity in Texas and Kentucky. Bitdeer provides the mining machines, Soluna provides the site and power, and both parties share the Bitcoin output—this is not a simple hosting fee model.
This model is very interesting. Soluna can participate in mining profits without spending money to buy mining machines, and Bitdeer can deploy computing power without spending years acquiring land and connecting to the power grid.
$BTC What does it really mean that the three lines of US crypto regulation are advancing simultaneously?
Where is US crypto regulation at now? I've sorted out the three most important clues and will give the conclusion directly.
The stablecoin bill has been enacted. In July 2025, Trump signed the GENIUS Act, the first formal federal crypto legislation. The core rule: payment stablecoins must be 1:1 reserved, and issuers cannot directly pay interest to holders. USDT and USDC will have to operate within a compliance framework going forward.
The market structure bill is stuck. The CLARITY Act passed the House with a high vote of 294:134 and was also advanced 15:9 by the Senate Banking Committee. But the full Senate vote was blocked by 7 Democratic senators united over an ethics clause—requiring restrictions on the Trump family profiting from crypto businesses. The probability on Polymarket for "passing within 2026" dropped from 70% to 15%. There is one more window after the September session, but if it drags to the November midterm elections, it’s uncertain.
The SEC is not waiting for Congress and is taking action itself. On August 18, the SEC announced the "Crypto Asset Regulatory Framework" proposal, the first in history to specifically set an issuance framework for crypto assets: early-stage projects can raise up to $5 million over 4 years without registration, growth-stage projects up to $75 million, and mature projects can shed the "security" label once sufficiently decentralized.
In summary: regulatory certainty is coming, just slower and more complex than most expect. The SEC’s shift from "blocking" to "facilitating" is clear. A five-year agreement for the Nvidia GB300 NVL72 facility in Malaysia is expected to bring in about $400 million in revenue, while Norway's Tydal has a $4.7 billion AI/HPC lease covering 121 MW.
Bitdeer's goal is to reach 350 MW of AI cloud data center capacity by Q1 2028.
Other mining companies are doing the same.
IREN signed a $9.7 billion AI agreement with Microsoft.
TeraWulf signed a 401 MW long-term agreement with Anthropic, expected to generate about $19 billion in revenue.
On August 23, Peter Schiff posted on X that AI and Bitcoin compete for capital, power, and data center infrastructure. The data is correct, but the conclusion is not—the mining companies are not being crushed by competition; they are making double the money using the same electricity and space.
A mining company with AI contracts is valued by the market at a multiple of 12.3x, while pure mining companies are only at 5.9x. Miners are not stopping mining; they are renting out the remaining power to AI companies while mining. Bitcoin has shifted from being the "main business" to a "side business," and miners have transformed from "coin miners" to "infrastructure operators." $BTC Treasury buybacks funded through the TGA could matter less as a headline liquidity event than as a test of market depth. With the account near $935B and the per-operation cap raised from $2B to at least $4B, execution may improve demand at the long end while releasing some near-term liquidity.
The distinction is important: this is not Fed QE, and it cannot erase the pressure from deficits, issuance or inflation. My read is that gold and BTC would respond more sustainably to a credible final scale that lowers long yields than to the announcement alone. Not advice, just analysis.
#TreasuryEyesTGABuybacksWithin the Nasdaq's 0.66% gain, there's a signal that sends chills down the spine of seasoned crypto veterans. On August 26, 2026, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.66%. Optical communication, storage, and crypto concept stocks all strengthened across the board. Hut 8 Mining surged over 7%, while Coinbase and Circle both rose more than 4%. 【Veteran's ramble】 Don't be dazzled by that patch of green. Crypto concept stocks are rallying enthusiastically in the U.S. market, but BTC itself failed to hold above 80,000 — this is the strangest divergence on yesterday's market. Look, Lumentum rose over 6%, Seagate and Western Digital rose over 3%, SK Hynix and Micron rose over 2%, Hut 8 Mining rose over 7%, Figure and IREN rose over 6%, Coinbase and Circle rose over 4%. The lifeblood of AI hardware pumped through the pipelines of optical communication and storage into the stock prices of crypto mining machines and trading platforms. This chain is connected. But what about BTC? It surged to 81,237.94 USD, a more than three-month high, then — fell back. The 24-hour total market cap dropped 2.94%, with the price swinging violently between 78,000 and 79,000, repeatedly losing and regaining the 80,000 mark. Strange? Not strange. Let me explain. The first layer of logic is "stock prices lead, coin prices lag." COIN rose 4.32%, HOOD rose 8.17%, MSTR rose about 4.1%. These mapped stocks benefit from a double boost of "compliant funds + listed companies buying coins." Strategy newRecently, wallet providers have started integrating AI agents into on-chain transactions. Account abstraction is also offering features like spending limits, batch operations, and programmable account rules. What AI wallets should most guard against is not the model's inability to trade, but its excessive permissions: fixed spending limits, contract whitelists, valid timeframes, and mandatory manual approval for overages—none of these can be omitted. The model might be prompt-injected or misinterpret webpage or tool return values. It doesn't need to be hacked; simply treating malicious instructions as normal tasks could trigger a legitimate but unauthorized transaction. Therefore, AI should only manage individual small-amount wallets; long-term assets should not be entrusted to agents. Account abstraction can embed rules into account logic, but "permissions can be set" does not mean "default permissions are reasonable." In the future, when evaluating smart wallets, I will first look at three things: whether permissions can be restricted, whether authorizations can be revoked, and whether operation records can be audited. Whether it can perform one-click transactions is not the top priority. Would you be willing to let AI manage a small amount of your daily funds? 📊 Crypto Market Snapshot for the Morning of August 26
$BTC broke above $81,000 intraday yesterday (a new high since mid-May), then pulled back, currently around $78,713, down 0.94% in 24h, repeatedly testing the $78,000 level. The move was driven by the US Treasury's expanded long-term bond repurchase triggering "devaluation trades" plus large-scale short covering, but overnight profit-taking emerged, failing to hold above the $80,000 mark.
$ETH is around $2,439, down 1.63% in 24h, lagging behind BTC in strength; $2,450 is the first support, and only a volume breakout above $2,600 would open room for a catch-up rally.
$DOGE is at $0.08805, down 1.12% in 24h, following the market pullback, with an intraday range of $0.0874–$0.0930.
$OKB is at $113.68, down 1.02% in 24h, with a circulating market cap of about $2.24 billion; previously driven by the "burn deflation + ecosystem implementation" logic, it staged an independent rally, rising from $80 along the Belt and Road to above $110, making it the most resilient among the four.
Market overview: The total market cap fell about 2.94% in 24h, but the fear and greed index rose to 74, showing a divergence of "price down with volume shrinking, but sentiment not falling" — in the past 24h, contract liquidations totaled about $584 million, with shorts accounting for $332 million. Strategy's $2.007B net MSTR share sale without a BTC purchase is best read as a balance-sheet reset, not a directional signal on Bitcoin. Holding 840,447 BTC while lifting the USD Reserve to $5.1B and creating $1.59B of USD Cash gives management more room to cover preferred dividends and debt interest without becoming a forced seller.
The trade-off is dilution today for optionality tomorrow. My measured read: the next allocation decision matters more than this week's inactivity. BTC purchases would reinforce structural demand, while buybacks could target the NAV premium and capital structure more directly. NFA.
#StrategyBuildsCashThe most absurd scene tonight is not that the US keeps expanding the sanctions list, but that with each additional page on the list, oil prices actually drop further. Digital assets, gold, and shipping are all included in the secondary sanctions against Iran, with claims of "zero leakage." $CL and $BZ should have surged, but both fell over 4%. Then it became clear: crude oil trading is about how many barrels are missing at sea, not who speaks more harshly. The market previously priced in risks o#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
After a hundred days, Bitcoin has finally returned to $80,000. This rally appears to be a violent short squeeze-driven recovery in the short term, but the deeper logic depends on macro factors and policies: the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakened, activating the "devaluation trade" logic; combined with the White House signaling regulatory friendliness and nearly $2 billion inflows into ETFs in a single week, the data is indeed impressive.
But to say "holding steady"? Personally, I think it still lacks some momentum. Technically, $83,000 is the "ultimate resistance" at the annual moving average, and the pressure is not to be underestimated. The $80,000–$90,000 range historically has low trading volume, so support is not solid. More importantly, this sharp rise has accumulated a large amount of profit-taking positions, and the fear and greed index is approaching "extreme greed," with short-term FOMO overheating often signaling a pullback ahead.
Next, the focus is on the retracement test—only if it can stabilize in the $75,000–$78,000 range with low volume consolidation can it build momentum for further advances. In terms of operations, don’t get carried away chasing highs driven by emotions; patiently waiting for confirmation signals is safer. At this position, it’s better to miss out than to make a mistake. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
Tonight's Nvidia $NVDA earnings report may be the most important validation of this AI market rally.
The market expects Q2 revenue to be about $92.2 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year; Q3 revenue is already expected to reach about $104.2 billion. Looking at growth alone, this is still an extremely impressive report card.
But I think what the market really wants to hear now is no longer "how many more GPUs can be sold."
This year, global tech giants are expected to invest over $730 billion in AI-related spending, and Nvidia itself, together with Apollo, BlackRock, KKR, and other institutions, is building a financing platform aiming to leverage over $500 billion of third-party capital into AI infrastructure.
This indicates that the AI arms race has entered a new phase:
Previously, the shortage was GPUs; now it’s money.
As long as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to pour CAPEX, Nvidia can certainly keep growing. But when investment scales reach hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars, the market will ultimately ask:
How much revenue and cash flow are these GPUs actually generating?
So tonight, what I’m most focused on is Nvidia’s Rubin demand, future guidance, and how Jensen Huang explains the returns on these massive AI investments. Crude falling despite broader US pressure on Iran suggests markets are separating announced enforcement from proven disruption to oil flows. That distinction matters: sanctions can tighten financial channels quickly, while the energy impact depends on whether exports actually shrink.
My read is that the larger cross-asset signal may come from liquidity. A stronger squeeze could lift energy inflation and support gold, yet BTC would still have to absorb tighter dollar conditions. The oil move is restraint, not resolution. Not advice, just analysis.
#IranSanctionsOilFalls$BTC
A whale that has been silent for a full 4 years recently sold 1,400 BTC, equivalent to 111.61 million USD.
Four years ago, their average cost was 45,024 USD, holding a total of 2,200 BTC.
They endured the long bear market, and at the peak of the most frenzied market, their unrealized profit reached as high as 178 million USD, yet they did not choose to sell at that time.
Only recently did they start selling, and this transaction has already realized a true profit of 76.5 million USD.
This is the real whale mindset: holding firmly through the bear market, unmoved at the peak of unrealized gains, and gradually cashing out profits when market sentiment heats up.
Whale selling does not mean an immediate crash, but it’s important to understand that at high price ranges, there are always people quietly exiting during the frenzy.
⚠️ On-chain data observation, not investment advice$BTC
Today's Market
In the past two days, a tangible wave of selling pressure has been observed on-chain... The selling pressure comes from short-term traders taking profits... (Those short-term traders who entered at 60k and 63k) (Figure 1)
Realized profits reached nearly 1 billion in one day, about 1.5 billion over two days...
This scale has already exceeded the profit-taking scale during the previous rebounds at 98k and 83k...
------------- Who manages automation after tokenized assets enter the wallet?
Yesterday's focus was whether assets can be put on-chain; today the question has shifted: after assets enter the wallet, who manages automation?
According to CoinDesk, Bitwise has launched an automated tokenized US stock portfolio where investors hold individual shares in their wallets, and software adjusts the portfolio according to a model. Another report shows POSCO International and partners recording accounts receivable on an Avalanche-based network, with AI first verifying trade documents.
LayerZero's ATLAS integrates matching, clearing, settlement, and risk management into trading infrastructure. The common trend is that tokenization not only changes asset representation but also changes where rule enforcement occurs.
The real questions are: Is the scope of strategy authorization clear? Can key actions be paused and reviewed? Can abnormal inputs be prevented from signing? "Can execute" does not equal "authorized."
#AI #Web3 #MPC #Tokenization #RWA📊 $SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Long positions have completely collapsed from an extreme 631x dominance to a short position reversal at 1.55x. The total liquidation in 24 hours exceeded $870,000, with a concentration as high as 62%, and the short squeeze momentum has completely vanished...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $11,300 $11,300 $17.90
4 hours $73,300 $70,500 $2,794.57
12 hours $544,300 $317,800 $226,600
24 hours $877,000 $344,000 $533,000
In 1 hour, longs dominated with an extreme 631x leverage, amounting to $11,300, showing extreme control; in 4 hours, long leverage sharply dropped to 25x, with volume soaring to $70,500; in 12 hours, long leverage further dropped to 1.4x, volume surged to $317,800, nearly balanced between longs and shorts; in 24 hours, shorts reversed with 1.55x leverage, liquidating $533,000 against longs' $344,000, totaling $877,000. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 62% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration—longs completed most of the harvesting within 12 hours but were fully suppressed by shorts in the latter 12 hours. Long leverage collapsed from 631x to being reversed by shorts at 1.55x, the short squeeze momentum completely vanished, and the directional dominance switched. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction has turned bearish, the intensity is mild, so avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company choosing to stay put amid a surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability is in Question
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally comes from macro factors. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an increase in long-term Treasury buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering a dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows that approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, continuous spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of an "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded firmly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process."
After the sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Holds Steady: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, recently disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying Bitcoin as it approached $80,000, hoarding $6.7 billion in cash—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or holding steady at current prices will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin’s short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying Bitcoin near $80,000, hoarding $6.7 billion cash, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. $SPCX contract longs collapsed from an extreme 631x dominance to being reversed by shorts at 1.55x, with total liquidation of $870,000 and 62% concentration, the short squeeze momentum completely vanished, and directional dominance switched. When devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new level?
Rallied then fell back, all lines cooled off.
$BTC once surged to 81,240 before falling back, dropping below 78,000. ETH weakened in sync to around 2,460. ZEC fell back from a high of 889 to 796. HYPE broke 83 then retraced to 78.
The overall rally then pullback — it's not a change in fundamentals, but funds are hedging ahead of Nvidia's earnings report.
BTC rose 24% this week, with over $4 billion in shorts liquidated in the past few days. But the fear and greed index has soared to 81, entering "extreme greed" for the first time in 2024. The last time it was at extreme greed was March 2024, when BTC dropped from 73,000 to 59,000.
$ETH's relative strength is weakening — when BTC surged to 81,000, ETH didn't reach its previous high. Profit-taking is emerging in ZEC and HYPE, and those chasing highs are starting to stand guard. Exchanges collectively raising VIP levels is essentially a "tax cut in the crypto space"
If you observe the trading volumes of major exchanges, you will notice a very clear migration trend:
The proportion of cryptocurrency contracts in overall trading is declining, while U.S. stock contracts are diverting more and more funds.
The reason is not complicated.
For traders, capital naturally flows from less popular markets to popular ones, and from markets with higher trading costs to those with lower costs. Compared to digital currency contracts, U.S. stock contracts often have lower funding rates and trading costs, and their underlying assets are more likely to attract traditional capital.
So the question becomes:
If you are trading contracts, why trade digital currencies instead of U.S. stocks?
As more people turn to U.S. stock contracts, the originally higher fee structure of digital currency contracts begins to lose its meaning. Because without sufficient trading volume, even the most refined VIP1—VIP8 tiers are just for show.
At this point, exchanges proactively upgrade users' VIP levels, ostensibly granting benefits, but in reality lowering trading fees.
For example, a quant team that could only get VIP3 before can now directly obtain VIP6. For ordinary users, the perception of fee reduction may not be obvious; but for high-frequency traders, large funds, and quant teams, the cost difference between VIP3 and VIP6 can be very significant.
And these groups happen to contribute:
- Large capital deposits
- High trading volumes
- Continuous and stable market liquidity
Therefore, if an exchange can offer me VIP6 while others only offer VIP3, I will naturally migrate more funds and trading volume to that exchange.
Other exchanges, seeing this, can only follow suit.
We are all professional players and can see clearly: the so-called "VIP upgrade" is essentially not a welfare, but exchanges actively lowering fees to compete for liquidity when trading volume is insufficient.
This is like tax cuts or tax exemptions for three years during an economic downturn.
Trading fees are the "transaction tax" in the crypto space; raising VIP levels is lowering the tax rate in the crypto space.
Therefore, the real logic behind this round of collective VIP upgrades by exchanges is:
To attract capital back, the "central bank" of the crypto space is starting to cut taxes.
After the tax cut, quant funds and large holders will recalculate costs and migrate funds to platforms with lower fees and better liquidity. Lower trading costs will further stimulate trading frequency and volume.
So, this round of "crypto tax cuts" may affect not only competition among a few exchanges.
It may also become an important force driving the next phase of market volume recovery and even the next market rally.
Liquidity does not arise out of thin air, but lowering trading costs is always one of the most direct ways to stimulate liquidity.
Therefore, exchanges collectively raising VIP levels is essentially a "tax cut in the crypto space." Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000 is meaningful, but the quality of the move matters more than the threshold itself. Last week's $1.92B in US spot BTC ETF inflows, alongside spot buying and short covering, gave the rebound real support. The next test is whether demand persists as profitable short-term holders and higher exchange inflows increase potential supply. With July PCE, the Fed chair's Jackson Hole speech, and jobs-data revisions ahead, sustained ETF flows, spot volume, and broader risk appetite would make the bull-market case more convincing. Not advice, just analysis.
#BTC80KHoldOrFoldMany people overlook a key point: the BTC-ETH price ratio is a barometer of current capital preference.
Only when the US stock market fluctuates both up and down can you sleep well 😴
Recently, ETFs have seen large dual inflows of capital, but the allocation is uneven, with the inflow volume into $BTC significantly higher than into $ETH. Institutional allocation strategy is very clear: first, allocate the base position to BTC for broad hedging; only when risk appetite further increases will the allocation ratio to ETH be raised.
A rising price ratio indicates capital preference toward Bitcoin; a falling ratio means incremental funds are willing to embrace Ethereum's elasticity. At this stage, don't subjectively assume ETH will start a large catch-up rally. First observe the price ratio signals, then decide on position bias—this is much more reliable than simply betting on price movements.$SNDK
Last night’s judgment: As long as the 1400-1415 support holds, a recovery will come, so you can continue to hold.
Risk points
1. Capital outflow from the sector, market deleveraging is obvious
The total open interest of the three giants in Hyperliquid storage has shrunk by 32.2%, and the number of SNDK holders has sharply contracted. This round is a recovery rebound after deleveraging, not a trend reversal; both long and short leverage are falling simultaneously.
2. Storage sector divergence, SNDK trend is weak
In the past 7 days, SNDK fell 11.6%, while SKHX in the same sector rose, showing relative weakness of the target.
3. Huge previous decline, heavy overhead resistance
Since the high point of 2350, it has fallen sharply with consecutive large drops; rebounds will continue to face pressure from forced selling to break even. Fundamental Research Report $DYDX / dYdX (DeFi) $3.20
Conclusion first: dYdX ($DYDX) overall score 48/100, rating Early-stage project, insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token capture has been realized.
Fundamental breakdown: dYdX (token $DYDX), DeFi sector. Focuses on decentralized perpetual contracts. Competitors include SNX, GMX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless trading fees are lower, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction value $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: dYdX $3.00B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. FDV: dYdX $4.20B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Annual revenue: dYdX $2.00M, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: dYdX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario doubles revenue, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Overall: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 48/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol income long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Continuous monitoring: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for now, see you next time.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit Semiconductor revenue recovery usually comes from three layers. The first layer is the inventory cycle: customers stop destocking and return to normal purchasing; even if end sales do not increase significantly, chip companies' shipments will rebound. The second layer is operating leverage: foundries, packaging, and R&D expenses have a large amount of fixed costs, so after capacity utilization rises, every additional dollar of revenue may bring faster profit growth. ADI's 40% revenue growth and 97% operating profit growth are typical examples. The third layer is structural growth: new applications expand long-term unit usage or market size, such as data center interconnects, automotive electrification, and industrial automation.
When analyzing, do not only look at year-over-year revenue. First, check whether inventory days and channel inventory continue to decline; then see if gross margin improvement comes from utilization, product mix, or one-time factors; next verify whether operating cash flow can keep up with profits; finally observe whether all end markets grow simultaneously. ADI's industrial and communications are strong, automotive is moderate, supporting the preliminary judgment of "broadening recovery," but it is not enough to prove that all end markets have entered a multi-year upcycle.
Contrary conditions should also be clearly stated in advance: if revenue guidance is consecutively revised downward for the next two quarters, industrial or automotive orders weaken again, channel inventory rises while end demand does not improve, or free cash flow rate is significantly lower than profit margin, then today's "breadth improvement" should be withdrawn. For Intel, if 18A mass production is delayed, yield drags down gross margin, or external foundry customers still do not convert to orders, then the technology roadmap cannot support stronger long-term assumptions. #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 In the past 24–72 hours, there have been no new financial reports in the SMH research pool sufficient to change the long-term facts of the portfolio; what is worth studying in depth is the performance of Analog Devices (ADI) on August 19: growth comes not only from AI computing but also spreads to industrial, communications, and automotive sectors, which tests the breadth of the semiconductor recovery better than a single GPU hotspot. On August 24, Intel announced three sets of Agentic AI architectures, which are valuable technical roadmaps but have not yet provided verification through orders, yields, revenue, or free cash flow, so they cannot be equated with realized financial results. The VanEck official page shows that as of August 21, 2026, the SMH daily holdings officially total 26; excluding cash, the company research pool on that day was 25. ADI accounts for 4.40% of SMH, which multiplied by 70% of SMH in the portfolio results in an approximate 3.08% penetration weight in the total portfolio. ADI announced its fiscal third-quarter results for 2026 on August 19: revenue of $4.022 billion, a year-over-year increase of 40%; GAAP gross margin of 67.3%, up 520 basis points; operating margin of 40.1%, up 1170 basis points. Quarterly operating cash flow was $1.604 billion, free cash flow $1.458 billion, equivalent to 40% and 36% of revenue, respectively. The company gave a median revenue guidance of $4.3 billion for the fourth quarter, with an adjusted operating margin median of 52%. The market cares not only about the 40% revenue growth but also the growth ofAfter BTC broke 80,000, who is still buying?
BTC has climbed back above $80,000, and the market is quick to attribute this rally to short covering. But the latest ETF data signals something else: on August 24, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $338 million, marking six consecutive trading days of capital inflow, with a total inflow exceeding $2.5 billion over the past six days.
This means that short liquidations are only part of the rally; spot capital is also continuously absorbing. Especially since BTC has already risen to a high level, the ETF's ability to maintain net inflows is even more noteworthy than the single-day price breakout itself.
Of course, several days of inflows alone are not enough to directly confirm a new trend. What’s truly worth watching next is whether ETF capital can continue to hold after BTC stays above $80,000. If capital continues and the price stabilizes, the underlying support for this rally will be more solid than just short covering.Recently, many people have asked me: How far has U.S. crypto regulation progressed? It feels like new news is coming every day, but the direction is hard to describe. I spent some time sorting out the three most important threads and will get straight to the conclusion. First line: The stablecoin bill has already been implemented In July 2025, Trump signed the GENIUS Act, the first formal crypto legislation at the U.S. federal level. The core rule is simple—payment stablecoins must have a 1:1 reserve of highly liquid assets, and issuers cannot directly pay interest to holders. What does this mean? Giants like USDT and USDC will have to operate within compliance frameworks in the future, rather than growing recklessly in gray areas. For ordinary users, stablecoins will be safer; For exchanges, custody and compliance costs will rise. Second line: The crypto market structure bill is stuck The CLARITY bill was originally the most favored — in July 2025, the House passed by a large margin of 294 to 134, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced 15 to 9. But when it came to a full House vote, it was blocked by seven Democratic senators joining forces. The blocking point is not a technical issue, but a political one. Democrats are demanding the addition of an ethical clause to limit the Trump family's profits from crypto business (his 2025 financial disclosures show crypto income is about $1.4 billion). The probability of "passing within 2026" on Polymarket has plummeted from 70% in May to 15%. There is still one window after the Senate reconvenes in September, but if it is delayed until the November midterm elections, the new congressional power structure will be renewed$ETH and $BTC: Same market, different structure
$BTC pulled back after breaking through $80,000, while $ETH, although rebounding, remains fragile around $2,500. The key difference lies in capital structure: Bitcoin benefits from stronger institutional and ETF demand, whereas Ethereum faces more leverage-driven volatility and sell-offs.
Don't assume ETH will react like BTC. Watch the ETH/BTC ratio: continued weakness indicates underperformance, suggesting ETH may need more time to absorb selling pressure. What about $SOL $ZEC $OKB?Bitcoin Deep-Dive | Aug. 26, 2026
BTC is trading around $78,600, with a market cap of roughly $1.58T. About 20.075M BTC are circulating, against a 21M maximum supply. Nearly 95.6% has already been mined.
Bitcoin’s core value comes from scarcity, Proof of Work, decentralization and global liquidity. Only about 925K BTC remain to be mined, while the block reward will eventually fall from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC.
The bigger question is not how much BTC remains, but how much is actually available for sale.
Recent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $1.92B in weekly net inflows, showing renewed institutional demand. But the rally was also supported by short covering and roughly $3B in short liquidations.
So ETF inflows alone are not enough.
The signals I’m watching:
① ETF net flows
② Long-term holder accumulation
③ Exchange BTC balances
④ Stablecoin/global liquidity
⑤ Genuine spot demand
BTC is increasingly sensitive to DXY, Treasury yields and Fed policy. Easier liquidity can support BTC, while tightening can trigger major corrections.
Valuation
$100K → ~$2T market cap
$200K → ~$4T
$300K → ~$6T
$500K → ~$10T
$1M → ~$20.7T
So $1M BTC is not simply a price target. It requires a massive shift in global capital allocation.
My view: 4.6/5
BTC remains the strongest core crypto asset.
But $80K is not a confirmed bull-market signal.
The real question is:
When BTC pulls back, is real capital still buying?
Follow the capital. Follow the supply. Follow the data.$BTC The CFTC is "advancing compliance," Trump personally spoke, and HYPE rose from 58 to 83 in one week, setting a new record. It looks like a grand show of the national team entering the field, regulatory implementation, and value revaluation. Wake up. This script has been played by the Hyperliquid team since last November. Let's start with the objective facts: starting November 29, 2025, Hyperliquid will linearly unlock 237.8 million HYPE tokens over 24 months, which is the team and early investors' share, not an airdrop. At current prices, the total nominal value of this unlock exceeds $10 billion, with a net monthly inflow into the market close to $500 million. Meanwhile, the project's own buyback mechanism—the Assistance Fund—can only buy back about $46 million per month. The gap is right there—who will take it? Looking at the timeline: On August 29, the team will receive another large unlock, while a whale is preparing to short a $42 million position. Consider it: on one side are the team shares openly planned to sell, on the other are smart funds preemptively shorting positions, with a "compliance positive" emerging at this critical moment, pushing retail investors' FOMO to a historic high of $83. This is not a conspiracy theory; this is structure. Before the team unlocks, someone needs to take over. The best way is to let the token price surge. Those who get emotional will think, "This wave is about to take off," and then chase the rally to enter. As for whose unlocked chips end up eating up the money from the rally, I don't need to say directly. Hyperliquid's own product is:ETH at $2470, are you going to chase it?
First, look at the surface: from 1900 to 2470 in one month, a surge of 30%.
Last week, ETF net inflows were $697 million (the strongest week in 2026), with another $116 million inflow on August 24, continuous positive inflows for several days. Volume broke through the nearly one-year downtrend line, standing above EMA20/50, the mid-term trend has reversed, don’t get shaken out.
But the RSI at 78-80 indicates overbought levels, making hands sweat.
First thing: ETFs are buying wildly, supply is being locked up.
US spot ETH ETFs had a net inflow of $700 million last week, led by BlackRock, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $12 billion. This directly locks spot holdings, reducing selling pressure. Fidelity even promotes full collateralization of ETFs plus quarterly dividends—you can earn staking rewards on the ETFs you buy, institutions are turning ETH into an "income-generating asset."
BitMine bought another 32,400 ETH last week (about $81 million), total holdings have reached 5.85 million ETH—close to 4.8% of total ETH supply! Of which 87% is staked.
Second thing: You’re still waiting for a pullback to 2000, but the market isn’t giving that chance.
In mid-August, ETH was hovering around 1900, and you were waiting to "buy at 1800." Instead, it surged 30% in a single week, hitting 2530. Now it’s pulling back to 2470, and you’re waiting to "buy at 2300."
This is the fate of retail investors: always waiting for lower prices, always missing out.
Exchange balances have been declining since the June peak, staking ratio still at 30%, corporate treasuries + ETFs further reduce circulation. Supply is shrinking, demand is exploding, it would be strange if prices didn’t rise.
Third thing: The technicals have reached a decisive moment.
2530-2550 is the first hurdle; if surpassed, look to 2800, then above 3000. But if it breaks below 2440 with volume, a short-term top is confirmed, with pullbacks to 2350 or even 2150-2200.
In terms of pattern, a strong rebound followed by a flag/rectangle consolidation, a typical continuation pattern.
On August 28, at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will speak. Dove = ETH surges to 2800, Hawk = pullback to 2200. This is the real decisive moment.
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for a pullback to 2460-2485 or 2420-2440 to stabilize and buy in batches, stop loss at 2400, target 2530-2550 → 2800. If volume supports a hold above 2530, you can chase, stop loss 2480, target 2800.
Swing traders:
Wait until after Jackson Hole. Dove scenario → chase longs targeting 2800-3000, Hawk scenario → wait to buy at 2200-2300.
Long-term believers:
DCA below 2400, target 3000-4000 by year-end. Institutional ETFs + staking dividends + supply tightening, the narrative is solid. But remember—keep 30% cash for black swan events. 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
After a short-term extreme short monopoly, the longs violently took over, with leverage stable around 10x. The total liquidation in 24 hours was only $132,400, with a concentration as high as 95%, indicating a low liquidity invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $84.28 $0 $84.28
4 hours $111,400 $101,600 $9,800
12 hours $125,700 $114,100 $11,600
24 hours $132,400 $120,700 $11,700
1-hour short monopoly (longs zero), volume only $84.28, considered invalid volume; 4-hour longs violently reversed at 10.3x leverage, volume surged to $101,600; 12-hour long leverage slightly dropped to 9.8x, volume rose to $114,100; 24-hour leverage slightly rose to 10.3x, liquidation $120,700 for longs vs. $11,700 for shorts, totaling $132,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 95% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration—the longs almost completed all harvesting within 12 hours, with only about $6,700 added in the following 12 hours. Long leverage remains stable around 10x, short squeeze momentum is mild, but the total daily volume is only $132,400, indicating a low liquidity invalid market with no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; this coin has extremely poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid "devaluation trading," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, while the largest Bitcoin holding company remains inactive amid the surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability is Doubtful
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally comes from the macro side. US Treasury Secretary Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-offs and reigniting "devaluation trading." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows about $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, sustained spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Yellen announced the "Economic Normandy Landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the related processes."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell instead of rising—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing concerns.
🏦 Strategy Stands Still: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at the current price will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin's short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trading" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. LAB contract liquidation totaled only $132,400 with 95% concentration, indicating a low liquidity invalid market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main lines—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. When devaluation trading, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $ZEC , $SNDK , I already posted my views yesterday saying that ZEC has reached a turning point, and SNDK can be shorted at 1550. I actually have some basis and opinions on this. 1. Based on BTC catching up and breaking previous highs, ETH consolidating, and other sectors pulling back and falling, it’s clear that the current market lacks capital momentum. A correction is necessary to ease the selling pressure from profit-taking. 2. ZEC, as a 🐲 privacy coin, has nearly doubled and entered the topMicron CEO reduced holdings by $38.75 million again at the $968 rebound high, pushing the core contradiction of $MU's market to a higher dimension: the executive sentiment risk aversion behind compliant selling and the roughly 50% supply-demand gap in AI data centers are fiercely competing.
Currently, $MU's stock price is around $933, down 25% from the historical high of $1255. After reaching the weighted average high of $968.90 on August 21, resistance appeared. The executives' cumulative cash-out of about $76 million in two rounds indirectly triggered a 30%-40% deep correction in the sector in July, imposing a psychological selling pressure ceiling on the current rebound.
In terms of driving logic ranking, the Q4 revenue guidance of $50 billion and 84.9% gross margin serve as primary support, far exceeding expectations and confirming that hardware demand remains solid. The executives' cash-out triggered concerns about a cycle peak and profit-taking, which is a secondary variable, causing serious divergence in liquidity orders near the $969 rebound high on the trading floor.
The trigger condition for the bullish scenario is the continued supply shortage in data centers and accelerated absorption of selling pressure from reductions. If bulls push the stock price to break through $969 and hold above the $1000 mark, Wall Street's target price expectations of $1050 to $1625 will regain dominance, with compliant risk signals being overshadowed by performance realization.
The trigger condition for the bearish scenario is a peak turning point in DRAM or HBM prices, causing the market to reprice according to the traditional hardware cycle. Once the stock price breaks below the previous correction support at $800, the CEO's cash-outs at $968 and the earlier $37.3 million will become signals of loosening bullish chips, triggering a trend-following sell-off.
The consolidation scenario is effective when the stock price remains in the $800 to $969 range, indicating that funds are digesting the 25% correction and awaiting further fundamental data. Whether this range breaks will directly determine if the cycle peak hypothesis holds.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing the progress of selling pressure digestion at the $969 rebound high and the resilience of the $800 support level under spot price fluctuations.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口When optical communication, storage, and crypto concept stocks all surged wildly on the same night, Bitcoin quietly slipped down from $81,000 — in this party's glass, who is truly drinking and who is just pretending to be drunk? On August 26, 2026, after the US stock market closed, the Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.66%. Optical communication stock Lumentum rose over 6%, storage stocks Seagate and Western Digital rose over 3%, SK Hynix and Micron rose over 2%, while crypto concept stocks were even stronger — Hut 8 Mining rose over 7%, Figure and IREN rose over 6%, Circle and Coinbase rose over 4%, Strategy rose over 3%. 【Veteran's Ramblings】 That night's market, insiders see the key, outsiders just see the excitement. The excitement is Lumentum and others rising enthusiastically; the key lies in a hidden thread — the US Treasury signaling it will buy 30-year bonds to suppress the long end of the yield curve. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 7 basis points to 4.63%, the 30-year fell 6 basis points. What does pressing down the long end mean? It means the "currency depreciation trade" has been pushed to the center of market focus. Canaccord Genuity analyst Joseph Vafi put it plainly: all this is crucial for BTC and MSTR because such Treasury actions reduce the attractiveness of long-term bonds in terms of yield. The coin price sneaked ahead, but the stock gains were left behind. Bitcoin intraday broke through 81,000 USD