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Post-fake breakout market battle: Bull trap confirmed, market enters cooling and re-accumulation phase
This fake breakout at $81,000 is a textbook example of a "liquidity hunt." Looking at the market details, after the short squeeze completed, the perpetual contract funding rate surged rapidly, indicating overheated market sentiment, but spot trading volume did not increase correspondingly. This is a typical scenario where "after the shorts run out of fuel, the bulls' leverage turns into the main selling pressure." The price quickly fell back to $78,000, meaning a large number of long positions chasing the high were trapped above $80,000, and these positions will become heavy resistance in the short term.
In terms of capital flow, Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC.D) showed a significant decline, with funds indeed flowing into ETH and some public chain altcoins, but this diversion is not a bull market expansion; it is more of a price ratio correction. Off-exchange stablecoin inflows remain weak. The daily RSI has fallen back from the overbought zone, the MACD bullish momentum bars have shortened, and the risk of a high-level death cross has increased. The market needs time to digest this long upper shadow.
For subsequent developments, $78,000 becomes the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If multiple retests hold without breaking, this level may form a new consolidation platform, using time to create space to absorb the trapped longs above; once a volume-driven break below occurs, it could trigger a bull stampede, quickly testing the stronger support zone at $76,000–$76,500.
In terms of strategy, tightening the battle lines and strictly controlling costs are key. Spot positions below $78,000 can be taken with small size on the left side of the dip, but reserve enough ammunition to wait for a possible deeper pullback
#BTC breakout above $80,000 The annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference has arrived as scheduled. As a barometer for Wall Street and the global financial circle, the underlying signals from this meeting are highly thought-provoking. Unlike the usual policy meetings that are guided by short-term economic data, central bank governors prefer to quietly set the tone for medium- and long-term policy frameworks in this informal, closed-door setting. Historically, whether launching quantitative easing or setting aggressive inflation targets, many far-reaching monetary turning points have been triggered from this point. What is most noteworthy this time is that, for the first time in the conference's history, "digital payments, fintech, and crypto/stablecoin infrastructure" was placed at the core of the agenda. This is a highly symbolic signal. Stablecoins have long ceased to be micro-settlement tools within the crypto market; they are evolving into "quasi-shadow banks" holding massive amounts of U.S. debt. When global central banks begin to sit down and seriously discuss the new boundaries between the "post-fiat era" and central bank balance sheets, you can understand why funds have recently diverted wildly—gold has risen steadily, but BTC, as a digital asset, is moving much faster in terms of absorbing liquidity. On the other hand, fluctuations in global bond yields and changes in central bank communication styles are sending the same signal: the era of central banks hand-in-hand "feeding" the market and covertly covering asset volatility is ending. Whether it's reassessing long-term neutral rates or facing over $350 trillion in global government debt, policymakers are trying to force markets to relearn self-pricing and risk-taking.Supplement: Another new address 0xceB...e66ea hoarded 10,000 ETH 10 hours ago, worth 24.72 million USD, and it is also likely to belong to Bitmine
Wallet address 0x04B9eDD55d250E755071B0081aD5a299a886B6c1
Because their regular operation for building $ETH positions is: new address + large integer amount transfer Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum is currently positioned relatively low; it is recommended to consider going long when it retraces to around 2,400, with a take profit set at 2,500 and a stop loss at 2,300. This way, the risk-reward ratio is clear, and you just need to follow the discipline.
In terms of news, Ethereum recently surged alongside Bitcoin to 2,530 USD, marking a new high since February this year; the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about 697 million USD last week, also setting a new weekly high for the year.
Additionally, treasury company BitMine recently increased its holdings by over 32,000 ETH, bringing its total holdings to more than 5.84 million ETH, accounting for about 4.8% of the total ETH supply on the network, with the staking scale surpassing 12.4 billion USD.$UNITREE has fallen from a high of 1100 yuan to 602.8 yuan, a drop of 45%, with early concentrated chips cashing out and high valuation corrections continuously tugging on the market.
Currently, the market value of 243.8 billion yuan is still about four times the issue price of 150.8 yuan. The chip premium brought by the very small circulation at the initial listing quickly faded after the new share funds exited.
The founder has extended the large-scale landing cycle expectation to 2 to 10 years. Coupled with current revenue relying on scientific research procurement and increasing revenue without increasing profit, the long-term narrative has lost the support of short-term performance.
The turnover of high-level profit-taking and the real lack of industrial scene orders have combined to create the current pricing downward adjustment channel.
If large industrial orders are realized early and drive repurchase rates to rise, proving that robots have a clear payback cycle advantage, the valuation squeeze will end ahead of schedule; if industrial delivery falls short of expectations, attempts at market rebound will quickly collapse.
If the growth rate of scientific research procurement slows and the market's cash-out selling pressure continues to release, the valuation will converge toward a performance center lacking industrial support; if speculative funds intervene and cluster during this period, the downward channel may experience a brief interruption.
Whether the product can complete the rigid test of stable operation for thousands of hours in a real industrial site determines whether the current chip pricing will shift to fundamental support or continue to fall seeking a bottom.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are the progress of industrial procurement orders landing and the turnover rhythm of high-level sedimented chips.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？#Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be realized?
The boss has something to say
Anthropic threw out a number: $30 trillion.
This is the total addressable market (TAM) it plans to tell investors in its IPO documents. What does that mean? The combined revenue of 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 last year was only $2.4 trillion, and Anthropic says this market is more than 12 times that.
When SpaceX went public, it cited $28.5 trillion, already called "the largest TAM in human history." Anthropic directly surpasses that.
How the number was calculated
When quantifying TAM, Anthropic included all the work AI models can accomplish. Simply put, it assumes AI can do all cognitive work, theoretically capturing the entire knowledge work market.
But take this number with a grain of salt. TAM is the theoretical maximum revenue assuming 100% market share. Uber said its TAM was $6 trillion at its 2019 IPO, WeWork said $3 trillion. We all know what happened afterward.
$200 billion revenue in 2028 is the real bet
More worth watching than the $30 trillion TAM is the 2028 revenue forecast. Anthropic internally expects to reach $190 to $200 billion by 2028. Annualized revenue was only $47 billion in May this year, and reached $65 billion by the end of July.
At $200 billion, that's a fourfold increase in four years. If this growth rate is realized, a $2 trillion valuation is supported. If not, the story collapses.
Raising $100 billion, valuation at $2 trillion
The IPO fundraising target is up to $100 billion, exceeding SpaceX's $86 billion. The valuation is anchored around $2 trillion. The underwriting syndicate includes Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi. The listing could happen as early as September or early October.
Impact on the crypto market
This is somewhat bearish. Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI are all absorbing liquidity simultaneously, continuously drawing incremental funds away from the crypto market. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 80,000, related to this backdrop. But from another perspective, if Anthropic successfully lists at $2 trillion, it will further confirm the capital value of the AI sector, which is not bad for the crypto infrastructure layer in the long term. $BTC $ETH $SOL
All long Bitcoin positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback. Do not heavily bet on direction before PCE and Walsh's speeches. Maintain a base position in SPCX, wait for adjustments in storage and others before making moves.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.August 26｜HYPE: The Heat Returns, First See Who Bears the Risk
HYPE is back at the center of market discussion today. When the market heats up, it's easy to focus only on the price, but what’s more important to understand about Hyperliquid is that it integrates trade execution, market deployment, and risk responsibility into a single set of on-chain rules.
HIP-3 allows builders to deploy independent perpetual contract markets, but it’s not "just deploy whenever you want." Official documentation requires mainnet deployers to stake 500,000 HYPE and be responsible for defining the market, setting oracles, leverage caps, and settlement when necessary. If operations compromise protocol correctness or performance, validators can vote weighted by stake to enforce penalties.
Another easily overlooked boundary is that the oracles for HIP-3 markets are managed by the deployers. The underlying liquidity, price source reliability, and private key security all affect actual risk. The staking threshold and penalty mechanism raise the cost of misconduct but do not eliminate price volatility, leverage losses, or contract design flaws.
So what really needs to be distinguished today is not whether the hype can continue, but whether each market’s deployer, oracle, and risk parameters can withstand scrutiny. The protocol provides a chain of responsibility, but users must still be accountable for the products and leverage they use.
$HYPE #HYPE
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.The core contradiction in the current market is: sentiment has reached "extreme greed," but fundamental validation is not yet complete.
The Fear and Greed Index was 36 (fear) a month ago, and now it has surged to 81 (extreme greed). This is the only time on record that the index has jumped directly from "extreme fear" to "extreme greed," rising 45 points in 30 days, almost erasing all the cautious sentiment accumulated in the first half of 2026.
History tells us: extreme greed itself is not a sell signal, but it is a signal that requires high vigilance.
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture between bull and bear markets, with $83,000 as the watershed. Ethereum shows a clear follow-up trend and awaits the return of an independent narrative. Solana’s divergence between fundamentals and price has created the largest expectation gap, but it also means the greatest volatility risk.
Stay clear-headed amid extreme greed, and when others are frenzied, ask one more question: "What’s next?" — this may be the only rule to survive longer in this market.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Fundamental Research Report $GMX / GMX (DeFi) $3.20
Summary: GMX ($GMX) overall score 50/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project Overview: GMX (token $GMX), DeFi sector. Focuses on Arbitrum perpetual DEX. Competitors include DYDX, SNX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, with no user data ownership. On-chain trustless trading fees are lower, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: GMX $3.00B, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. FDV: GMX $4.20B, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Annual revenue: GMX $2.00M, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: GMX undisclosed, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients joining, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 50/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlock sell-offs, protocol income long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment.
Fundamentals analyzed, market direction is another matter.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit [Daily Market Analysis] Apple uses Changxin memory, gold stagnates amid rate hike concerns, sanctions on Iran cause oil prices to fall instead of rise
$SNDK SanDisk plunged from 1600 to a low of 1418, then made a V-shaped rebound. Many thought it was dragged down by the broader BTC ETH market, but the real reason lies elsewhere.
According to news, Apple is testing Chinese Changxin's DRAM and Yangtze Memory's NAND, intending to use them in devices sold to the Chinese market. This is a concrete negative for SNDK, as its market share in China will be taken away, causing capital to panic and flee. Additionally, ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, the AI hardware sector collectively took profits, and SNDK repeatedly closed below its 50-day moving average. Both technical and fundamental factors hit, leading to last night's 12% plunge.
It has now rebounded to around 1470, but faces heavy resistance above; 1600 has become a ceiling. The only support below is at 1400. If Apple officially announces using domestic memory someday, SNDK could drop to 1300 or even lower.
$XAU fell due to Federal Reserve rate hike concerns and a stronger dollar.
$CL fell because Iran and Oman discussed resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil supply concerns.
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨
#苹果测试长鑫存储芯片并展开初步供货谈判 #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be realized?
The boss has something to say
Anthropic threw out a number: $30 trillion.
This is the total addressable market (TAM) it plans to tell investors in its IPO documents. What does that mean? The combined revenue of 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 last year was only $2.4 trillion, and Anthropic says this market is more than 12 times that.
When SpaceX went public, it cited $28.5 trillion, already called "the largest TAM in human history." Anthropic directly surpasses that.
How the number was calculated
When quantifying TAM, Anthropic included all the work AI models can accomplish. Simply put, it assumes AI can do all cognitive work, theoretically capturing the entire knowledge work market.
But take this number with a grain of salt. TAM is the theoretical maximum revenue assuming 100% market share. Uber said its TAM was $6 trillion at its 2019 IPO, WeWork said $3 trillion. We all know what happened afterward.
$200 billion revenue in 2028 is the real bet
More worth watching than the $30 trillion TAM is the 2028 revenue forecast. Anthropic internally expects to reach $190 to $200 billion by 2028. Annualized revenue was only $47 billion in May this year, and reached $65 billion by the end of July.
At $200 billion, that's a fourfold increase in four years. If this growth rate is realized, a $2 trillion valuation is supported. If not, the story collapses.
Raising $100 billion, valuation at $2 trillion
The IPO fundraising target is up to $100 billion, exceeding SpaceX's $86 billion. The valuation is anchored around $2 trillion. The underwriting syndicate includes Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi. The listing could happen as early as September or early October.
Impact on the crypto market
This is somewhat bearish. Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI are all absorbing liquidity simultaneously, continuously drawing incremental funds away from the crypto market. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 80,000, related to this backdrop. But from another perspective, if Anthropic successfully lists at $2 trillion, it will further confirm the capital value of the AI sector, which is not bad for the crypto infrastructure layer in the long term. $BTC $ETH $SOL
All long Bitcoin positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback. Do not heavily bet on direction before PCE and Walsh's speeches. Maintain a base position in SPCX, wait for adjustments in storage and others before making moves.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.Since we identified July 1st as the phase low at the end of June, BTC has surged over 40%! The major market turning point is getting closer and closer. What should be the next move?
As shown in Figure 1, in the article on August 22nd, I clearly stated that $BTC's rise would not stop at 79,500, and today we saw a new high at 81,272.
After reaching 81,272, it quickly pulled back. The green Gann angle line 3/1 (80,100) is the nearest resistance level currently. If in the next two days we see BTC's daily candle hold above this level, it indicates the uptrend still has momentum and may soon test the next resistance at 82,000 or even the core resistance of this rally around 84,000. This means the timing of the high could come earlier.
If it fails to hold above, a correction will begin, at least a pullback targeting the blue segment rise shown in Figure 2. The 74,000 level is a critical watershed; breaking below it could expand the correction to target the entire red segment's overall rise.
Today is already August 25th, and every day, every hour, is pushing closer to our high observation time, with the rebound structure starting from 57,800 nearing completion.
For the bulls, the only favorable scenario is a continued rapid rally. Otherwise, whether it's a correction of the blue segment, an expanded correction, or sideways consolidation, all are unfavorable for the bulls. Because this increases the probability that the rebound from 57,800 is a correction of the 98,000–57,800 decline. As mentioned last week, under this path, there might still be a low point in Q4.Currently, the sentiment for BTC and ETH in the crypto space is clearly better.
There is only one indicator:
The storage stocks like SNDK and Hynix lead, forming a strong seesaw effect with ETH and BTC in the crypto space.
Now, while ETH is no longer rising and is consolidating, the storage stock SNDK has actually fallen below 1500 without a strong rebound.
After nearly half a year of horizontal comparison, this is also my basic approach when switching between stocks or crypto. For now, this seesaw effect is about to fail.Ethereum: The strongest rebound, but the deepest concerns
Ethereum led the three major cryptocurrencies with a weekly gain of 30%, climbing back above $2,500. Analysts point out that ETH rebounded after finding support around $1,500, with its current fair value range between $2,300 and $2,400.
However, Ethereum's situation is the most delicate.
On one hand, it has the largest rebound, indicating the strongest resilience; on the other hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains near the historical low of 0.031, showing that Ethereum is still "following the rise" rather than "leading the rise" in this market cycle. Bitcoin's dominance has once risen to 61%, close to the yearly high—funds prioritize Bitcoin, while Ethereum and altcoins only benefit passively.
Technically, Ethereum faces short-term resistance between $2,550 and $2,600. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that for ETH to open up a larger upside, it must break through the main resistance zone of $2,722 to $2,970.
Ethereum's narrative logic (DeFi, ETF inflows, ecosystem recovery) has not been substantially strengthened in this rally. Its rise is more a result of Bitcoin's spillover effect. If Bitcoin is blocked at $83,000, Ethereum's correction could be larger than Bitcoin's. Conversely, if Bitcoin confirms a breakout, Ethereum is expected to catch up to the $2,800–$3,000 range.
$BTC $ETH The horn of a bull market, or a trap of sentiment?
CryptoQuant's Bull Score index surged from 30 to 80 within a week, with 8 out of 10 indicators showing bullish signals. The founder of the institution, Ki Young Ju, publicly stated that Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a bull market, and the current trend is consistent with the market before the last bull market started.
But my judgment is: the bull market signal is on, but $83,000 is the real "touchstone."
CryptoQuant clearly pointed out that a weekly close above the 365-day moving average (currently about $83,000) is required to officially confirm a new bull market. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger also emphasized that the next important level is the May 2026 high of $82,820.
The current risks should not be ignored either:
- Traders' unrealized profit rate reaches 20.5%, the highest since June 2025
- Bitcoin exchange inflows rise to about 53,000 coins, the highest since June
Bitcoin is transitioning from an "oversold rebound" to a "trend reversal," but the transition period is often the most fragile stage. Once $83,000 is effectively broken through, the upside space will open to $87,000 or even $100,000; if it is resisted and falls back, a short-term retest of the $72,000-$75,000 range is possible. For the rest of August, the policy signals from the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting will be the biggest variable. 📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Bulls controlled the market throughout, with a total liquidation of only $160,000 in 24 hours, indicating a low liquidity and ineffective market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $79,600 $79,500 $62.58
4 hours $79,600 $79,500 $62.58
12 hours $98,600 $98,500 $62.58
24 hours $160,300 $128,100 $32,200
From 1 to 12 hours, bulls almost monopolized the market (shorts less than $100), with volume rising from $79,500 to $98,500, showing extreme control; shorts appeared in 24 hours but bulls led by 4 times, liquidating $128,100 against shorts' $32,200, totaling $160,300. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 61.5% of the 24-hour total, with a moderately high concentration. The bull multiple fell from an extreme value to 4 times; although the short squeeze momentum weakened significantly, bulls still fully controlled the market, with a clear bullish direction. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; direction is bullish but total volume is very small, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company remaining inactive amid the surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability in Doubt
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally comes from macro factors. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering a dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows that last week, approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated.
However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, sustained spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the related processes."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell instead of rising—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing concerns.
🏦 Strategy Holds Steady: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at the current price will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin's short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. OKB contract liquidations totaled only $160,000 for the whole day, indicating a low liquidity ineffective market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Family, the latest NVIDIA earnings report was released in the early morning of August 27 Beijing time (after market close on August 26 Eastern Time), covering the second quarter of fiscal year 2027.
This earnings report focuses on three key points. The market expects revenue of about $91.9 billion, the company's official guidance is $91 billion, and the forecast market gives a 96% probability of exceeding expectations, but the expectation gap has been compressed to the limit. After four consecutive quarters of beating expectations, the stock price actually fell the day after the earnings report; the market is no longer satisfied with "good or not," but looks at "whether it can continue to beat expectations in the next two to three quarters." The biggest variable this time is the Rubin platform revenue being quantified for the first time, which determines whether the growth slope of AI computing power in the next phase can break the "sunlight death" curse.
NVIDIA's scale is about $5.3 trillion, and the options market prices the market value fluctuation after the earnings report at about $280 billion. The chief strategist of Principal Asset Management said: "If NVIDIA has any slip-ups, it could be bad news for the entire market." This earnings guidance will directly affect the global semiconductor supply chain and AI capital expenditure expectations.
Bitcoin just broke above 80,000. If NVIDIA's earnings beat expectations, the AI chain will continue to strengthen; if the guidance is conservative, the entire risk asset market will shake accordingly. The truth will be revealed tonight. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $NVDA $BTC To understand today's market, we must first grasp the essence of this round of rebound.
First, the U.S. Treasury's "unintentional" move: Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per transaction. This measure not only failed to effectively suppress U.S. Treasury yields but also triggered a "currency depreciation trade"—the market interpreted this as a hidden weakening of the dollar's credit, leading funds to flow into gold and Bitcoin as hedging tools. Gold broke through $4,600 per ounce, and Bitcoin surged over 25% in a single week.
Second, the chain reaction of short squeeze: After Bitcoin broke through $70,000, it triggered massive short covering. Over $4 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated within two to three days. The short squeeze pushed prices up, and the rising prices attracted more buying, creating a positive feedback loop.
Third, the return of institutional funds: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.92 billion in net inflows last week, marking the largest single-week inflow since October last year. Combined weekly inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs totaled $2.61 billion.
But the most intriguing point is: Strategy—the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder—has not made any new purchases for two weeks. This rebound occurred in the absence of the largest "whale," which precisely indicates that the driving force comes from a more macro level rather than the actions of a single institution.
$BTC $ETH SOL evolves again! From a casino to financial infrastructure!
$SOL has gained another solid fundamental: on-chain RWA holders have surpassed 300,000, reaching over 313,000 by the end of July, with RWA asset size around $3.73 billion; meanwhile, in June, Solana accounted for about 96% of tokenized stock on-chain trading volume, indicating this is no longer just a Meme casino.
My judgment: RWA is one of the most promising narratives for SOL in the mid to long term. 300,000 holders mean the user base is expanding, but the number of holders ≠ capital scale. Ethereum’s total RWA value is still significantly higher. In terms of strategy, consider buying SOL in batches on pullbacks to key support, and think about adding more after breaking previous highs; don’t go all in just because of 300,000 wallets. What really matters is whether the RWA scale, stablecoin inflows, and on-chain trading volume can sustain growth.Every trade is a wrong trade, so trade less 📊 $XAU Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Long positions dominated control step by step after the opening, with momentum first declining then rising, forming a V-shaped reversal. The 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeded $3.72 million, with a concentration of 57.3%……
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $52,600 $52,600 $0
4 hours $163,000 $116,900 $46,100
12 hours $2,137,100 $1,386,000 $751,100
24 hours $3,727,000 $2,799,200 $927,800
In 1 hour, longs monopolized (shorts zero), volume $52,600, tentative control; in 4 hours, longs moderately expanded by 2.54 times, volume surged to $116,900; in 12 hours, long ratio dropped to 1.84 times, volume surged to $1,386,000, narrowing the long-short gap; in 24 hours, longs surged again to 3.02 times, liquidation $2,799,200 vs. shorts $927,800, totaling $3,727,000. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 57.3% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. The long ratio fell from 2.54 to 1.84 then rebounded to 3.02, forming a V-shaped reversal. The short squeeze momentum first weakened then strengthened again, with longs establishing comprehensive dominance over the 24-hour period. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company choosing to stay put amid the surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability in Doubt
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024.
The core catalyst for this rally is macroeconomic. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar selling and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows about $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, ongoing spot demand must replace forced buying.
🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92 per barrel, WTI to about $85 per barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Stays Put: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company held $5.1 billion in USD reserves and an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at current prices will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin's short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. The XAU contract longs reversed from 1.84x to 3.02x in a V-shape, with cumulative liquidation of $3.72 million and concentration of 57.3%, short squeeze momentum re-strengthened, forming technical resonance with strong gold spot. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold? #Strategy issues more shares to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under focus Good morning everyone
$BTC BTC
In a complete bull and bear cycle, BTC is the initiator and terminator of the market trend. In every recovery phase of the cycle, BTC is the first to bottom out and the first to start, relying on macro and institutional funds to open up upward space, activating the entire crypto market's risk appetite.
When the market reaches the mid-to-late bull phase, funds spread outward, and BTC's relative returns decline, but as long as the bull market hasn't ended, it won't fully enter a bear market; at the bubble's end, after altcoins collectively celebrate, BTC is also the first to sense the macro turning point and peak early. In the bear market phase, it is the last asset to fall. It does not chase hot spots but defines the overall market's major cycle direction. All public chain coins' trends are built on BTC's upward cycle. Without BTC's trend recovery, ETH and SOL find it difficult to sustain large trends.
$ETH ETH
Is a relay asset within the cycle. In the early recovery, it passively follows BTC's rise and struggles to form an independent trend; only when the market confirms the bull market is not a short rebound will funds start to layout ecological narratives, and the ETH/BTC ratio rises.
Its highlight window is concentrated in the mid-bull market: L2, RWA, DeFi narratives ferment, and on-chain economic expectations are fully priced in. In the most frenzied late bull phase, funds further flow to smaller, more elastic targets, and ETH underperforms SOL-like coins. In the bear market, its bottoming and recovery lag behind BTC but precede high-risk public chains. Simply put, it misses the very start and the wildest end of the market, mainly earning growth returns in the bull market's mid-phase.
$SOL SOL
A typical bull market late-stage amplifier. It often performs mediocrely in the early recovery, and even short-term pulses rarely sustain a trend; only when the market is fully frenzied, risk appetite maxed out, and speculative hot money overflows massively, does SOL experience the main upward wave.
Its rise height does not fully depend on its own ecosystem progress but more on the volume of excess speculative funds in the market. Once the cycle turning point approaches, it is also among the first assets to be abandoned, with a drop speed and magnitude far exceeding BTC and ETH. It is suitable for late-cycle speculation; participating early in the market often has low cost-effectiveness.
Rotation sequence summary: Cycle warming first confirmed by BTC bottom trend; mid-bull market relay by ETH; market frenzy explosion by SOL. Once the cycle reverses, the sequence is realized in reverse: SOL crashes first, followed by ETH correction, and BTC bears pressure last. Currently, we are still in the early stage of cycle recovery, not yet entering the phase of large-scale fund outflow. BTC is beating drums at the $80,000 threshold, but on-chain action is much calmer than emotion. Have people around you started posting screenshots of their holdings? When I saw this event post, my first reaction wasn't excitement, but a bit of caution. When a symbolic number threshold is paired with the ritual of "sharing gifts," the market is often trading not just prices, but a sense of "participation." Let's start with the lively surface. BTC broke through 80,000, social media was abuzz, and HODL enthusiasts, bargain hunters, and new entrants were all posting their trades. The essence of these activities is to take a group photo of the "consensus," making everyone feel as if they are standing within a frame of history. But what about the underlying structure? The signal I saw was that prices are breaking through the threshold, but the funding rates for perpetual contracts have not become extremely overly excited, indicating that leveraged funds are not out of control, but it also means that the "crowd base" behind this rally is not as solid as imagined. Those truly buying may not be retail FOMO, but funds lurking in advance driven by events. Here's an easily overlooked point: the $80,000 is important not because of itself, but because it's treated as a 'psychological anchor.' The market is not trading this number, but rather the expectation that "after the breakout, more people will believe it can continue to rise." So you'll see that the closer the price gets to the threshold, the more volatility converges, because everyone is waiting for a confirmation signal. The bullish path is clear: after holding above 80,000, short covering will give a push, ETH and mainstream coins will catch up, and risk appetite will shift from "testing" to "testing."The tariff script from the Trudeau era continues
Canada has imposed counter-tariffs of up to 50%, covering over 700 categories of U.S. goods, totaling about $20 billion, effective September 8; previously, the U.S. had already imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods.
This is no longer just a simple trade friction; it is a chain of "tariffs → inflation → interest rates → risk assets" heating up again. In the short term, this is bearish for U.S. stocks and the Canadian dollar, while gold and BTC may actually benefit from safe-haven demand and dollar depreciation trades; however, if the escalation continues, worsening risk appetite will also first hit crypto.
Strategy: Gold $XAU is biased long, $BTC not chasing the rally, control position around 80,000, wait for a pullback confirmation; if the trade war escalates further, reduce altcoin leverage. $BTC is currently around $64K, total market cap about $2.28T, total market volume around $44B/day, and BTC dominance still above 56% according to CoinGecko. I don't think anyone serious can know exactly where BTC will be by mid-2027. But we can prepare for three different worlds. 🟢 BULL WORLD US–Iran cool down. Oil drops. Bond yield drops. Fed has room to ease. US crypto regulation clearer. Stablecoin and tokenization expand. BTC breakout. ETH/BTC reversal. BTC.D drops. In that world, Unitree Technology dropped 45%!
These days, watching Unitree Technology, my emotions have been quite conflicted.
The issue price was ¥150.8, it opened directly at ¥1100 on the first day of listing, and finally closed at ¥845. By August 25, the market value was still ¥243.8 billion.
Some say it has already "halved" and it's a good time to buy the dip.
But when I glanced at the issue price again, I calmed down. ¥602.8 is still about 4 times the issue price. The price is easily amplified by emotions and chip distribution.
The company itself indeed has substance.
It has already sold real products and achieved profitability.
This is also why I am willing to study it seriously.
Many robot companies are still showcasing concepts, but Unitree has already made the product, reduced costs, and can deliver in batches. Its advantages in motion control, complete machine engineering, and supply chain are visible to the naked eye.
But the stock price is buying the future.
Next, I want to look at three questions:
Whether robots have continuous repurchase, whether the proportion of industrial customers has increased, and whether a single machine can work steadily for thousands of hours and save real money for customers.
Dancing and backflips are certainly impressive.
But commercialization ultimately comes down to failure rate, working hours, and payback period.
I like Unitree as a company and recognize it may represent a breakthrough in Chinese robot manufacturing. But facing the current stock price, I don't want to convince myself just with the words "the first humanoid robot stock."
Unitree's products are already running; now it needs time for performance to catch up with market imagination.
#宇树上市后连续回落，估值如何定价？ Today marks another round of the secondary Bsc meme market, most likely driven by Lobster.
$Lobster Early on, I always said the market maker was weak because every time it started, it was like it never really started, usually relying on pump signals, then a quick run and dump.
Until this recent phase, from 10 to 20, no one was pumping, and 20 stayed flat for a long time. Even today's breakout to a new high had hardly anyone pumping.
So be cautious when you see mass pump signals afterward, because I've observed that most pump signals can't be entered immediately; they usually trap you for a while before the price recovers later.
Today I followed Lobster's gains.
$KOMA
$I'mFuckingHere
Why not follow others? Because I previously followed $tut, which seems to be in a consolidation phase, so I can't follow now.
If you don't hold coins at the start of a run, I wouldn't chase. There are many small coins; recently, it's better to focus on positioning quietly.Looking at daily volume, Bitcoin and Ethereum's recent rally has indeed accumulated considerable fatigue, with momentum gradually weakening and correction signals already flashing yellow light. But from another perspective, market funds have settled to this level and liquidity has returned. To directly reverse and bearish is actually quite difficult. 🌊 However, this does not mean that those price gaps below that have been skipped can be ignored. The gap left by Ethereum between $2150 and $2200 has always been like a hanging stone, reminding the market balance to be not yet complete. My observation is that this gap is more likely to be quickly filled by inserting needles rather than slowly grinding down on a bearish dip. For short-term traders, that area might be worth tentatively entering with small positions, but the premise is to firmly hold stop-losses and not let luck replace discipline. 📌 To put it plainly, after three consecutive high-volume long bullish candles, the physical range of the middle bullish candlestick is often the area most easily filled during pullbacks. This is not a prediction but a statistical pattern of market inertia: funds have turnover demand there, and prices tend to return to cost-intensive areas to confirm support. So rather than anxious about a sharp drop, it's better to view this as a structural self-repair. ⚖️ Currently, there is little new macro pressure; oil price declines and geopolitical factors have limited disturbances to risk assets, while institutions continue to increase cash reserves, indicating that large funds remain patient with subsequent allocation rhythms. Against this backdrop, short-term fluctuations are more technical than trend changes. 💡 But still$CORE In the short term of 1–2 years, CORE is unlikely to completely decouple from BTC. The market logic will always be: BTC surges → BTCFi sentiment heats up → CORE follows with a slight rise; BTC consolidates or falls → CORE pulls back first, with reduced gains and a rise-and-fall pattern.
Its ceiling is always determined by Bitcoin's market performance, and its own fundamentals can only decide whether it outperforms or underperforms other BTCFi projects, unable to enter an independent bull market.$CORE For CORE to break out into an independent market trend, it must meet 3 extremely difficult conditions, which are almost impossible to see in the short term
1. The ecosystem generates sustainable independent cash flow
Large-scale implementation of on-chain DeFi, lending, stablecoins, and institutional business, with fees and staking yields forming stable cash flow, continuously repurchasing and burning tokens to reduce circulating supply, changing the current model that relies entirely on mining inflation. This requires a large number of developers and real users to enter, but currently, the ecosystem activity is far from sufficient.
2. The BTCFi sector becomes an independent mainline, detached from the overall market rally
Only when the market stops speculating solely on BTC itself and instead focuses on the Bitcoin ecosystem financial sector, with CORE as the BTCFi leader gaining sector premium, can it break out into a trend independent of BTC; however, the current crypto market is still dominated by BTC alone, with altcoins and public chains mostly following BTC’s ups and downs, making an independent sector trend difficult to emerge.
3. Unlocking selling pressure clearance, reversing the token supply-demand pattern
Early large holdings are gradually released, circulating supply tends to stabilize, staking and locked positions continue to expand, reducing market selling pressure, and reversing the supply-demand relationship. Only then does the token price have the foundation to break away from BTC and follow an independent trend.DUSK HAS BUILT THE ROAD. BUT WHERE IS THE TRAFFIC?
Dusk currently presents €300M+ confirmed institutional issuance, 50K+ investor reach, 210M+ DUSK staked and ~10s deterministic finality. Those are meaningful numbers. But another set of numbers is worth watching: current explorer data shows a much smaller level of direct network activity, with roughly 921 addresses, 68 active addresses over 24h, 41,938 total transactions and 8 contract calls over 24h at the time of the snapshot. $UNITREE I feel like Unitree has been set up...
Why does the founder look so serious at the IPO?
Pushing Unitree to go public is nothing more than cashing out on the momentum, and the driving force behind the cash-out is just this capital or that capital.
Value investing no longer exists...
Valuation bubble: The IPO was hyped up, pricing the humanoid robot's long-term story prematurely, with a first-day P/E ratio of several hundred times, far exceeding industry levels, and the performance can't support the high price.
Chip issue: The float is very small, and a large amount of new funds sold at a high price on the first day of listing, transferring chips to retail investors chasing the high, causing heavy selling pressure and amplifying the decline.
Fundamentals below expectations: Revenue growth has sharply slowed, showing revenue increase without profit increase; income mainly relies on research procurement, with little industrial implementation.
Founder’s statement cools expectations: Publicly said large-scale humanoid robot deployment still needs 2-10 years, breaking the market's short-term explosion fantasy and accelerating capital exit.
Simply put: The company hasn't worsened; it's the emotional bubble receding, and the stock price returning from story hype to actual performance.
The price will fall further in the future; $30 is your true range... $CORE selling pressure continues to suppress, positive factors are slow to materialize and weak to realize
Although the project has planned ecological revenue buyback and burn, dual staking, and institutional BTC staking services, the current on-chain fee income is limited, and the buyback strength is very small; early token unlocks and team holdings selling pressure persist long-term. Every time BTC rebounds, profit-taking occurs, making sustained rises difficult. Any increase is quickly hammered down, ultimately peaking and then falling into oblivion.
Severe competition within the sector, obvious capital diversion
STACKS, sBTC, and various BTC staking L2 projects heavily divert BTC liquidity. CORE lacks exclusive barriers; Bitcoin users have many alternative options. Capital will not cluster in CORE for long, and once the BTC market cools, funds immediately withdraw.In recent days, one of the hottest narratives in the crypto market has been the sudden surge of Dogecoin. The price has surpassed the $0.09 mark, rising over 30% in just over a week, with a total market cap approaching $14 billion, pushing it back into the top ten rankings. At first glance, this rally feels somewhat like "old tree blooming anew," but behind the lively surface, what deserves more attention is the structural change within the market itself. The real drivers of this wave are still the strong performances of Bitcoin and Ethereum. While Bitcoin oscillates at high levels, ETF funds continue to see net inflows, and Ethereum has entered a consolidation phase after reaching $2,500. In contrast, Dogecoin appears more like a follow-up asset buoyed by overall market sentiment, fundamentally different from the days when a single tweet from Elon Musk could ignite a rally. In other words, this surge is more of a rising tide lifting all boats rather than a fundamental change in Dogecoin itself. Looking at the asset itself, Dogecoin has not undergone substantial changes over the years. It has a fixed annual issuance, with supply continuously expanding and inflationary pressure always present. It lacks smart contracts, a DeFi ecosystem, or institutional narrative support. What supports its price more are community sentiment, celebrity effects, and collective resonance on social media. This structure means it tends to be amplified in a bull market atmosphere but often becomes one of the most deeply corrected assets when the market weakens. In the short term, momentum may continue, as sentiment-driven assets often have inertia. But precisely because it lacks an intrinsic value anchor, at any moment outAfter BTC broke through $80,000 again, market sentiment clearly warmed up, but the signals behind this rebound remain divided. Last week, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $1.76 billion, reaching a strong level in recent months, indicating that real cash funds are returning to the market. Meanwhile, short covering further amplified the gains, so the foundation for this rebound is much more solid than relying solely on high leverage. However, the other side is also worth watching. As BTC rebounds rapidly, more short-term holders are re-entering profit territory, and BTC inflows into exchanges have increased, which may indicate that some investors are preparing to cash in profits. So, in my view, the real significance of $80,000 is not a beautiful integer threshold, but a test of buying capacity. Next, what to watch is: 📌 Can ETF funds continue to maintain net inflows 📌? Can spot trading volume keep up with price increases 📌? After profit-taking, can the market absorb selling pressure 📌? Can BTC stay above $80,000 instead of surging and pulling back again? The macro aspect cannot be ignored. The US core PCE, the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, and subsequent employment data could all become new catalysts for volatility. If inflation continues to cool and the market raises expectations for rate cuts again, risk assets may gain further support; Conversely, stronger yields and the US dollar could put pressure on BTC. So this round of market action is indeed of higher quality than a simple short squeeze, but it cannot yet be simply understood as "$CORE Why can CORE only rise following BTC, but not rise much or strongly?
1. The narrative foundation is dependent on Bitcoin, inherently unable to be independent.
The core value of CORE is to activate BTC's idle liquidity, relying on BTC native CLTV staking mining and BTC's hash power as the security base. The entire chain's users, TVL, and revenue all come from Bitcoin holders. Its positioning is as Bitcoin's "smart contract layer," not a public chain on par with BTC. The market valuation itself is a derivative premium of BTC; if BTC doesn't rise, it has no independent value support.
This round of BTC's rise is driven by multiple hardcore factors: macro liquidity (US Treasury repo), relaxed US regulatory policies, large institutional ETF inflows, and short squeeze forcing longs, resulting in huge incremental funds. Meanwhile, CORE is just following the sector sentiment, with very little incremental funds; most are internal migrations among existing BTC users, with no new external capital entering, naturally causing its gains to be significantly diluted.The geopolitical winds seem to have shifted subtly in a short period of time. The easing of tensions between the US and Iran is directly reflected in the commodity and bond markets: crude oil prices have fallen, US Treasury yields have cooled accordingly, and the previously tense tension in the market has finally shown signs of easing. This shift from "risk aversion" to "risk appetite" sentiment is most directly reflected in the crypto market. Against this macro backdrop, Bitcoin has climbed back above the $80,000 mark, and Ethereum has smoothly broken through the important psychological price level of $2,500. 📈 The rapid price recovery naturally breathed a sigh of relief for the bulls, but a closer look at the market reveals that as prices rise, the pressure to take profits is quietly accumulating. Is this rally the start of a new wave of trends or just a brief respite after the geopolitical risk premium fades? It's still too early to draw conclusions. The next market rhythm will most likely shift from geopolitical drivers to economic data guidance. This week's focus is very clear: first, the US July core PCE price index; second, statements from Federal Reserve officials at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. The market's current expectation for core PCE is about 3.3%, which is not low in itself, but the key lies in the difference between the actual reading and expectations. If the data unexpectedly falls short of expectations, the market's pricing in Fed rate cuts this year will be further strengthened, which is a mild tailwind for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tech growth stocks. But looking at the opposite, risksIf Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 this month, it could mark the largest single-month gain since November 2024. $BTC Alongside the rise, US spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing capital inflows. Data shows that in the last trading day last Friday, ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.92 billion, the strongest weekly performance in nearly ten months. The last higher inflow occurred in October last year, when Bitcoin was at a historic high of $126,000. Including $337.6 million added earlier this week, inflows have continued for six trading days, bringing this round of cumulative inflows past $2.26 billion. Meanwhile, market trading activity surged, with data showing that last week's ETF trading volume reached $22.1 billion, more than triple the previous week's $6.9 billion. IBIT call options also set a record, with single-day contract volume reaching up to 1.58 million contracts. The bullish skew rose 0.05% in three days, the largest three-day increase in at least two years, indicating traders are willing to pay a higher premium for upside exposure. Currently, the total assets of US spot Bitcoin ETFs have rebounded to $98.5 billion, just one step away from the $100 billion mark, and a rapid rebound from the low of about $76.6 billion in mid-August. However, as of now, ETFs have still accumulated net outflows of about $2.57 billion this year, and whether the strong inflows in August can be sustained remains to be seen. Of course, the market has also reached a small tipping point. Foreign media reports that the Treasury Department is considering using about $950 billion in cash reserves in its general account to finance buybacks, rather than immediately matching bonds through the issuance of short-term Treasury billsWhat truly deserves attention is not just that ETFs are still maintaining net inflows, but that new funds are being reallocated. On August 25, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $32.45 million, while ETH ETFs recorded about $27.81 million. The single-day capital scale of the two is already very close. But looking at cumulative data, BTC spot ETFs still lead by net inflow, at about $54.6 billion, while ETH is at about $12.5 billion. This means ETH is attracting marginal capital at a faster pace. What's more noteworthy is that ETH ETF funding has continued to improve recently, while ETH price and on-chain activity are attracting more attention. Institutional funds are no longer solely focused on BTC; some new allocations are spreading toward ETH. If this trend continues, ETH may not just be the second choice after BTC, but could become an important bridge for capital to rotate from BTC to high-beta assets and altcoins. Next, focus on: 📌 whether the ETH ETF can sustain net inflows 📌, whether the BTC/ETH capital ratio will continue to converge 📌, and whether funds will continue to flow into SOL and other mainstream altcoins after ETH breakout. BTC is responsible for attracting liquidity, and ETH may be responsible for initiating the next round of rotation #ETH #BTC #Ethereum #Bitcoin #CryptoETF #AltcoinsPolychain redeemed from staking 3 months ago
EIGEN, with 14.65 million tokens ($3.09 million) transferred into Coinbase Prime 6 hours ago.
Of the 131.8 million EIGEN they redeemed at the end of May, 46.86 million tokens were restaked 1 month ago; 14.65 million tokens were transferred into Coinbase Prime today; the remaining 70.29 million tokens remain in the address.
Transferred into Coinbase Prime addresses:
0xEd2f512b35C53C0e90804C8cf846Fae91E10AAf1
0xC46E5520C7FcCE7Bf00eB5edB02597f65DC15f91#BTC80KHoldOrFold BTC is back above $80,000, but the signals behind the move aren’t all pointing in the same direction 👀
Last week’s $1.92B of US spot BTC ETF inflows—the strongest in nearly ten months—suggests real spot demand has returned alongside short covering. That gives the rebound more substance than a purely leveraged move.
At the same time, more short-term holders are now in profit, and rising exchange inflows suggest some coins may be moving closer to potential selling 📊
To me, that makes $80K less interesting as a headline and more important as a test of demand. Can ETF flows and spot volume absorb profit-taking without volatility taking over again?
With July PCE, Jackson Hole remarks and possible jobs-data revisions all approaching, the macro backdrop could quickly change the mood.
This feels like a stronger rebound—but not yet a simple one.On August 24, the Thai Securities and Exchange Commission (Thai SEC) again solicited public comments on the draft rules for domestic crypto ETFs, with a deadline of September 20. Clarification phase: This is a detailed draft after the first round of consultations from April to May, not final approval, nor does it mean BTC or ETH ETFs have already started trading. Crypto Briefing and other independent reports verified this progress on August 25, with the event still dated August 24. The draft sets out a fairly specific product boundary. Funds must be established by asset management companies and managed passively, tracking the price of a single crypto asset; The average net exposure per fiscal year must not be less than 80% of the fund's net assets. Initially, only Bitcoin and Ethereum are eligible assets, and fund shares can only be traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Investors must also undergo product risk education and confirm understanding of the associated risks before trading. What truly deserves attention is not the headline "Two More ETFs Added," but rather the custody arrangements. The draft requires that the fund's crypto assets are, in principle, held by local digital asset custodians regulated by the Thai SEC; Only when deemed necessary and appropriate by the regulator may qualified offshore custodians be allowed under the jurisdiction of their jurisdiction. In the future, Thai mutual funds and private equity funds can allocate local crypto ETFs within existing investment ratio limits. There are three main paths to influence. First, local ETFs can incorporate trading, valuation, information disclosure, and custody into Thailand's existing fundsAlibaba's HK$80B placement being nearly three times subscribed suggests institutional demand remained firm at HK$112.70, even as nearly 10% intraday pressure showed how quickly dilution can dominate the near-term narrative.
Joe Tsai and Eddie Wu's roughly HK$120M purchase of 1.07M shares adds alignment, but it does not settle the debate. With new stock equal to about 3.6% of enlarged capital, the stronger confidence signal would be sustained AI cloud growth converting infrastructure spending into better profit and cash flow. Not advice, just analysis.
#AlibabaConfidenceTestLarge capital flows in physical hard currency have once again shown an independent trend.
Hong Kong's net gold exports to the mainland in July soared to 56.193 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11% and a year-on-year surge of 28%. Despite a slight decline in total exports, the rebound in net exports indicates that the selling pressure from gold flowing back to Hong Kong after entering the mainland has almost disappeared.
Most of the market is still focused on jewelry consumption, but this is completely the wrong direction. Data from the China Gold Association shows that gold jewelry consumption in the first half of the year plummeted 26.7% year-on-year, while low-premium gold bars and coins surged 46% against the trend. People are no longer paying for expensive craftsmanship premiums but are directly exchanging cash for absolute safe-haven assets.
Combined with the central bank's continuous gold purchases for 18 consecutive months and record net inflows into domestic gold ETFs, local Asian physical capital has established a very solid pricing support at the bottom.
As more and more capital chooses to forcibly convert fiat currency into physical gold, the signal for the Web3 asset architecture is extremely clear: the global consensus on "absolutely scarce assets with no hedging risk" is accelerating its consolidation. Within the arbitrage range between $BTC Bitgold and physical gold, whoever can absorb this panic demand for scarcity will be the ultimate recipient of the next round of capital flight.
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Looking back at 2022, $BTC experienced a sharp decline, then a strong rebound in summer, but eventually weakened again and dropped to around $15K, after which the cycle bottom was gradually confirmed. $ETH's movement also showed a similar "sharp drop → rebound → re-bottoming" structure. By 2026, the market scenario seems to be similar again: $BTC quickly surged from the previous low to around $78K, and $ETH broke through $2.3K again. But this time, the market gained a key variable that was not seen before—institutional capital participation has significantly increased. Recently, the US spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow of about $1.6B, while ETH ETF capital performance has also improved. Continued ETF inflows mean this rally does not rely entirely on retail sentiment and leverage; institutional funds are providing some spot demand support. ⚠️ But the question remains: is this a trend reversal after a new cycle bottom confirmation, or a larger bear market rally? If BTC can hold steadily in the $77K–$80K range and continue to receive spot fund support, the structure will lean more toward a trend reversal. Conversely, if inflows weaken and prices fall below key support again, the historical "rebound followed by another bottom" scenario cannot be completely ruled out. Price tells us where the market is headed, and only then can capital flows tell us who is driving the next move #BTC #E$BTC & $ETH :IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN?
In 2022, $BTC fell sharply in June, rallied through summer, then made a final move toward $16K before the cycle bottomed. $ETH followed a similar path.
In 2026, $BTC has surged back above $80K, while $ETH has recovered toward $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2B in weekly inflows, while ETF activity has also strengthened around Ethereum.
Is this a genuine cycle bottom—or another powerful relief rally? BTC is sucking the blood, altcoins are paying off debts — only a few are profiting in this market cycle
$BTC weekly gain of 24% nears 79,000, marking the best performance since 2023. But CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index is only 39, far below the 75 threshold that defines an altcoin season — most altcoins have underperformed BTC over the past 90 days. BTC dominance has risen to 59.68%, with capital not spreading at all.
$ZEC has dropped from a high of 889 to 774, falling nearly 7% in 24 hours and losing the $800 level. HYPE retreated to around 78 after breaking a new high of 83, down about 4% in the past 24 hours. XRP rose 46% over seven days but has pulled back for two consecutive days, with $1.55 confirmed as resistance and RSI at 76.8 still in overbought territory. SOL broke 100 but retraced to 96, a pullback of over 3% — although on-chain RWA holders have surpassed 300,000 and TVL rose to 10.7 billion, the price remains under pressure.
BTC's surge was driven by the Treasury expanding long-term bond buybacks and over $4 billion in short liquidations. But after the shorts are wiped out, who will take over? ETFs continue to see net inflows, institutions are buying — RockawayX just raised a $150 million fund betting on undervalued tokens — but retail chasing altcoins at highs has already started paying debts.
Only a few are making money in this market cycle. Auntie's thoughts today 8.26
After a surge and pullback, the price has entered a sideways consolidation. Although the upper resistance repeatedly blocks the price, the lower moving average support remains solid. The pullback did not show increased volume or heavy selling, so the bulls' base is still intact.
The market is repeatedly tugging back and forth, not suitable for chasing prices directly. Be patient and wait for the price to retest the support area, then confirm the strength of the buying before entering long positions. This way, the risk-reward ratio of the trade will be more favorable. If the key support is effectively broken, abandon the bullish outlook immediately.
Operation: Gradually build long positions near 2410 and 2440, with the first target at 2480 and the second target at 2550.
$ETH $ETH vs $BTC : Same Market, Different Structure
$BTC broke above $80K before pulling back, while $ETH rallied but remains vulnerable near $2.5K. The key difference is capital structure: Bitcoin benefits from stronger institutional and ETF demand, while Ethereum faces more leverage-driven volatility and selling.
Don’t assume ETH will react like BTC. Watch the ETH/BTC ratio: continued weakness signals relative underperformance and suggests ETH may need more time to absorb selling pressure. PROFIT-TAKING PRESSURE IS RISING
$BTC breaking above $80K and $ETH above $2.5K triggered profit-taking, pushing both back from recent highs However, ETF flows remain a key bright spot, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting roughly $1.92B and Ethereum ETFs about $697M over the past week—the strongest weekly inflows of 2026
In my view,the pullback looks more like profit absorption after a strong rally than a confirmed reversal. The key test is whether ETF demand remains resilient as $BTC retests $79K–$80K