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Some people reflexively shout "big bull market" when they see "Thailand ETF," but this time the draft is still under public consultation.
The Thailand SEC is publicly soliciting opinions on the draft rules for local spot crypto ETFs. In the first phase, only funds investing in BTC and ETH are allowed. The products must be listed on the Thailand Stock Exchange and primarily use regulated custody. The consultation period ends on September 20.
The direction is somewhat bullish for BTC and ETH—but this is not an immediate approval for large-scale buying upon listing. Rather, it indicates that Thailand is incorporating mainstream crypto assets into a compliant securities product framework, which will later facilitate local capital entry through fund channels.
From a trading perspective, this is better viewed as a medium-term institutional benefit. Short-term prices will still depend on the actual launch pace of the ETF and whether Asia-Pacific funds follow up.
Source: Wu Shuo
#BTC #ETH #Crypto100W $ZEC This Martingale experiment lost 12.6U but is not over yet.
Just checked the account, ZEC dropped from 870 to 752, and my contract Martingale is still running. Total invested 46U, unrealized loss 12.6U, a 27% loss, all 10 add-on positions used, average price 823, still some way from the current price.
This Martingale was originally for experimentation, trying to see if grid add-ons could average down the cost and wait for a rebound with a highly volatile asset like ZEC. Made a little profit from the rise from 500 to 870, but the pullback wiped it out. Using all 10 add-ons without a rebound shows the market is indeed weaker than expected.
The core bullish logic is Grayscale pushing for a Zcash spot ETF, planned to list on the NYSE around August 25, plus Cypherpunk running a mining rig cluster accounting for 18% of the entire network's hash rate. But the pump mainly relies on futures leverage, not real spot buying; RSI hit 88 in the overbought zone, so any slight disturbance triggers a sell-off.
The experiment isn't over yet, just holding on to see the result. If it ends in loss, so be it; if it profits, it's experience gained.
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 Here's a divergence to note—don't just focus on the price rising. Gold is approaching historic highs, silver has climbed above 69, looking impressive. But on the same day’s position data: the world’s largest gold ETF (SPDR) reduced holdings by 1.1 tons, and the largest silver ETF (iShares) cut 36 tons in one day. Prices are hitting new highs, yet real money is flowing out—this is a classic divergence between price and capital flow. Prices can be temporarily pushed up by sentiment and leverage, but position flows don’t lie. Those who blindly rush in at new highs often end up holding what others are distributing. The most expensive lesson at the table is—what you think is accumulating is actually carrying the opponent’s load. Before chasing highs, ask yourself: who is buying, who is selling? 🚨 CRYPTO ETF DEMAND IS BROADENING BUT THE NEXT TEST IS PROFIT-TAKING The latest move in crypto is becoming harder to dismiss as a purely leverage-driven rally. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in roughly $1.92B last week, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. Ethereum ETFs also recorded a strong week, adding roughly $697M. That tells us something important: Institutional demand is returning alongside the price. And now the story is beginning to spread beyond $BTC $ETH and other cFederal Reserve's Barkin said a hard truth yesterday: the US debt has broken 40 trillion, and sooner or later it will face a "liquidation," but no one knows when. I agree with this, but we need to distinguish the time scale. Fiat currency depreciates in the long term, and hard assets benefit; this is the fundamental reason I hoard coins—gold hitting record highs, silver reaching 69, and $BTC are all the same account being slowly priced by the market. But "long-term correctness" does not mean "rising today." Debt liquidation is a long-term chronic negative, not a catalyst for tomorrow's market open. Using it as a faith anchor is fine, but using it as a reason for short-term buying will kill you on time cost. Distinguishing what is direction and what is the trigger is the premise for survival. Do you treat it as faith or as an excuse? Recently, discussions about Dogecoin have quietly heated up again, with voices in the community saying "It's bottomed out, it's time to enter the market," and even some influential KOLs are actively calling for trades. In this atmosphere, ordinary investors are easily swept up in emotions, as if missing this price level is like missing an era. But if we shift our focus away from the noisy surface and look at the calmer data behind on-chain and exchanges, we might reach a completely different conclusion. I carefully reviewed the current DOGE holdings and found a rather interesting comparison. The data shows that about 1,239 small retail investors are currently continuously buying, with most positions concentrated around $0.091. In other words, almost all these new funds are standing at the same cost line, as if they have agreed to be together on the mountaintop, feeling the cold wind together. On the other hand, the data from the short sellers is even more intriguing—although only 317 addresses participated in the short selling, far fewer than the retail long positions, their total holdings exceeded $81.7 million, which is even larger than the total of all retail long positions. What's even more noteworthy is that these short sellers are not currently profitable. Based on current price estimates, their floating losses have already exceeded $10 million. This is a very critical signal: when a large short position is deeply trapped, holders often don't easily admit losses and exit; instead, they tend to wait for the right moment and even actively create downward price movements to close at lower levels$UNITREE $UNITREE found an issue, Unitree Technology only has contracts. During the day, it can barely follow the underlying stock, but at night it follows data manipulation by a certain exchange. For example, the least liquid major exchange Gate allows the largest single-account leverage. Yesterday at midnight, when the underlying stock market was closed, it sneakily manipulated to trigger a short squeeze on a major holder. Larger volume exchanges like Binance and OKX followed suit with similar manipulations. This is a bug!Pullback After Breaking 80K: The Strength Divergence Between BTC and ETH Reveals the True Choice of Capital
On August 25, BTC broke through the $80,000 mark for the first time in three months, reaching a high of $80,908, the highest since mid-May, but then quickly retreated to around $78,800, consolidating in a narrow range; ETH simultaneously surged to $2,533 but experienced a larger pullback, currently dropping to around $2,450 with a daily decline of over 1.3%, clearly weaker than BTC. Behind this seemingly normal surge and pullback, the strength divergence between the two is accelerating—BTC's pullback is a technical consolidation supported by institutional buying, while ETH's decline reflects loosening of positions after a sentiment fade. During the same policy window, capital has voted with its feet to select truly certain assets.
BTC's pullback looks more like a buildup before a breakout rather than a loss of upward momentum. The capital support remains solid: since August, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of $2.07 billion, surpassing the monthly high set in April 2026, with a single-week peak inflow of $1.92 billion, a nearly 10-month record. BlackRock's IBIT single product contributed over 60% of the increase, and the logic of leading institutions accumulating has not reversed despite the price surge. Even during the pullback after breaking 80K, ETF funds did not see significant net outflows, indicating institutional capital is not engaging in short-term speculation but entering with a medium- to long-term allocation goal. These chips have settled as a base position, forming a solid price support zone.
The chip structure also confirms this. On-chain data shows that in the past two weeks, the entire network's exchange BTC net outflow exceeded 13,000 coins, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking, reducing active circulating chips. The $76,000-$78,000 range is the core cost zone for this round of institutional accumulation; every time the price dips to this level, buy orders quickly intervene, forming strong support. The rapid pullback after breaking 80K is essentially the concentrated unlocking and selling pressure of historical trapped positions in the $78,000-$82,000 range, not a lack of buying. This "pressure above, support below" pattern, though appearing as repeated oscillations, actually digests selling pressure and raises the market's average holding cost with each pullback, accumulating momentum for a subsequent effective breakout.
In contrast, ETH's decline shows more obvious signs of sentiment fading, exposing the weakness of capital support. The underlying fundamentals remain solid: Ethereum's total staked amount on the entire network reached 41.89 million coins, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, hitting a new historical high, with over one-third of circulating chips locked long-term, effectively sealing off deep downside from the supply side. However, supply contraction can only hold the bottom, not support sustained rises. This round of ETH's rally was more driven by BTC's upward momentum combined with the AI+Crypto narrative's emotional catalyst, rather than large-scale institutional capital inflows.
The capital difference is the core of the divergence. Last week, the spot ETH ETF had a single-week net inflow of $697 million, seemingly impressive but only about one-third of BTC's, with over 70% of the increase coming from BlackRock's single product. The capital concentration is much higher than BTC, lacking support from systematic industry-wide accumulation. More short-term funds gather in the derivatives market; during this rebound, ETH perpetual contract positions fluctuated wildly, and funding rates rose and fell sharply with the market, indicating a high proportion of speculative capital. This is reflected in the market as "leveraged gains on the way up, accelerated losses on the way down," with greater elasticity than BTC when rising but often larger declines during pullbacks, making ETH's independence and sustainability weaker than BTC.
The upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 27-29) will further amplify this divergence. The first Jackson Hole speech by new Fed Chair Wash is highly anticipated. The current market prices a roughly 69% probability of maintaining rates in September, leaning toward a neutral to slightly hawkish expectation. For BTC, with a solid institutional base and stable chip structure, even if hawkish policies trigger a pullback, the strong support at $76,000 limits downside; if policies turn dovish, further upside space may open.
For ETH, policy volatility will have a significantly amplified impact. If policies turn dovish, sentiment may heat up and ETH could pulse higher again; if hawkish, sentiment fading combined with leveraged liquidations will likely cause a larger pullback than BTC, testing short-term support around $2,380-$2,400. Essentially, BTC earns certainty money, while ETH earns elasticity money. During policy windows, the value of certainty will become more prominent.
Operationally, the two require different strategies. BTC is suitable for a mid-term allocation approach, holding the base position and accumulating in batches when it pulls back to the $76,000-$78,000 range, without frequent trading due to short-term volatility; ETH suits a swing trading approach, taking partial profits above $2,550, waiting for a stable pullback before considering low entry opportunities, strictly controlling position size and leverage. In a divergent market, understanding the true choice of capital is far more important than chasing short-term gains. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 > Bitcoin Analysis: $BTC has already risen significantly, so now what to watch isn’t RSI, but who’s buying.
BTC is currently around:
$78,500.
After the rally from the $58K area...
BTC briefly touched $81,272.
And derivatives data shows some interesting conditions.
> Open Interest up around 18.6% in 7 days.
BTC futures OI up from around:
$48 billion → $57.3 billion.
This means...
A lot of new leverage is starting to enter the market.
The rally is still strong...
But the risk of a long squeeze is also increasing.
> Funding Rate is still relatively normal.
The majority of funding is still positive.
This means traders are indeed leaning LONG...
But not yet at extreme euphoria levels.
This is still quite healthy.
> Options market turning defensive.
The August 28 expiry has around:
$6.4 billion in BTC options.
Call OI is still larger than Put...
But recent Put volume is starting to get higher.
This means some traders are starting to buy protection against a drop.
Max Pain is around:
$68K.
Not that it means BTC is definitely heading to $68K...
But this positioning is still interesting ahead of expiry.
> Meanwhile, spot demand remains strong.
US Bitcoin ETFs recorded around:
$2.2 billion in inflows over six sessions.
So this rally isn’t just a short squeeze.
There’s spot buying supporting the price too.
> Key levels:
- $77K–$78K = support
- $73K–$75K = next support
- $80K–$81.3K = resistance
- $82,850 = main breakout level
In conclusion...
The bias is still bullish.
But leverage is starting to pile up and BTC is close to major resistance.
If $82,850 is broken through with spot demand staying strong...
Bullish continuation becomes even more valid.
But if the breakout fails while OI keeps rising...
Be careful.
The market might need to shake out late longs first.US-Iran confrontation escalates + US dollar credit under pressure, gold's high-level oscillation is just a buildup, institutions continue to raise bullish targets
On Tuesday (August 25), spot gold experienced a thrilling surge and pullback, once spiking to $4696.55/oz, a three-month high, before quickly retreating near the $4600 mark, finally closing at $4658.67, up slightly by 0.13%. This volatile daily candlestick seemingly indicates a pause in bullish momentum, but underlying geopolitical risks, US dollar credit, debt pressure, and physical demand are continuously reshaping global asset pricing logic.
TD Securities' head of commodities bluntly stated that the recent pullback is merely a short-term consolidation, not a trend reversal. Gold faced profit-taking pressure at the strong resistance of $4700, but the macro drivers pushing gold higher have not faded; instead, they continue to intensify across multiple dimensions. Early Wednesday Asian trading shows gold maintaining a narrow oscillation around $4657.
1. Technical Crossroads: $4700 as Key Level, Support Determines Future Space
Technically, $4700 has become the core resistance that bulls must overcome. After gold peaked at $4696 yesterday and sharply dropped, the intraday range neared $100. Approaching this key resistance, short-term profit-taking and previous trapped positions combined to create selling pressure.
Technical analysis sets clear boundaries: if gold can hold effective support near $4600, it may continue to challenge $4755 and even target $4850; if $4600 support fails, the price will likely test the 200-day moving average near $4519, entering a phase of sideways consolidation. However, technical pullbacks are short-term fluctuations; the true direction depends on whether the macro fundamentals fundamentally shift, and currently, the bullish underlying support remains solid.
2. Middle East Powder Keg Heats Up, Long-Term Safe-Haven Premium Supported
Geopolitical tensions are the core support for gold's safe-haven status. The US recently expanded sanctions on Iran, targeting nearly 60 individuals, entities, and vessels across five sectors including shipping, gold, and digital assets. Iran responded strongly, condemning the sanctions as violations of international law and threatening retaliation, escalating the confrontation.
Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with frequent attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea. Iran and Oman are negotiating maritime security, significantly raising uncertainty in global energy transport routes. Although oil prices have slightly retreated short-term, the market remains wary of Iran's ability to disrupt global shipping. The US is gradually redeploying diplomatic personnel in the Middle East, believing large-scale conflict risk has decreased, but Iran's tough stance means geopolitical shadows remain. As long as Middle East tensions persist, gold's safe-haven demand will not easily fade.
3. US Debt Intervention Backfires on Dollar Credit, Structural Weakness Supports Gold
If geopolitical risk fuels gold's rise, US debt market intervention causing cracks in dollar credit is the core engine of this rally. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced doubling long-term Treasury buybacks to suppress rising long-term yields. But the market sees through this: government intervention to lower borrowing costs cannot solve the massive $40 trillion US debt problem. This move is interpreted as financial repression, triggering a sharp drop in the dollar index to its lowest since mid-May.
Citigroup has directly lowered its long-term dollar index forecast, and Wall Street consensus is forming that the dollar's medium- to long-term weakness is hard to reverse. The World Gold Council points out that uncontrolled US debt growth and rising fiscal uncertainty are eroding global trust in the dollar system. Gold, as a non-sovereign safe-haven asset, is being revalued by the market for its role in hedging dollar credit risk.
4. Two Major Events This Week Determine Short-Term Gold Price Volatility
Market focus is on two key events: Wednesday evening's US July core PCE inflation data release and Fed Chair Powell's first public speech at Friday's Jackson Hole symposium. PCE is the Fed's core reference for monetary policy, with market expectations for core PCE year-over-year at 3.3%. Previous weak CPI and PPI data have cooled rate hike expectations, with September hike probability down to 38%. If PCE continues to decline, the Fed's rate hike logic weakens further, putting pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, potentially giving gold new upward momentum.
Powell advocates reducing forward guidance since taking office, making his speech tone hard to predict. A dovish signal would benefit gold; a hawkish emphasis on inflation risks could trigger a short-term pullback. Regardless, the speech is unlikely to change the medium- to long-term pressure on dollar credit.
5. Eastern Physical Demand + Trade Frictions Add Dual Support for Bulls
While Western markets grapple with monetary policy, physical buying from the East solidifies gold's base. Latest data shows China's July gold imports rose 11% month-on-month, with the central bank increasing gold holdings by nearly 20 tons in a single month, a yearly high. Domestic gold prices maintain a premium over London gold, with strong official and private demand. As the world's largest gold consumer, China's strategic accumulation provides long-term structural support for global gold prices.
Meanwhile, US-Canada trade frictions continue escalating, with both sides imposing high tariffs, raising trade barriers and global economic uncertainty. Capital continues flowing into gold to hedge risks, an often overlooked bullish factor.
Conclusion: The Gold Bull Narrative Has Just Begun
In summary, US-Iran geopolitical conflict, dollar credit damage, high US debt pressure, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases jointly support a medium- to long-term gold uptrend. $4700 is only a short-term resistance. As market trust in dollar assets declines, gold's allocation value will be continuously re-evaluated. Goldman Sachs has even raised its long-term gold target, seeing upside beyond the previous $4900 forecast.
Though short-term gold prices face profit-taking and high-level oscillation, pullbacks are merely consolidation phases within the trend. This week's PCE data and Fed speech will only affect short-term volatility rhythm, not the long-term logic of gold as a hedge against sovereign currency risks. In the context of a gradually diversifying global monetary system, the gold bull market story is just opening a new chapter.Fundamental Research Report $SNX / Synthetix (DeFi) $3.20
Core Judgment: Synthetix ($SNX) comprehensive score 53/100, rating narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
First, the project: Synthetix (token $SNX), in the DeFi sector. Focuses on synthetic asset derivatives. Competitors include CRV and UNI. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, and user data is not controlled by users. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; concentration of large addresses holding assets may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (accounts for +3.50% of circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear buyback burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Synthetix $3.00B, CRV undisclosed, UNI undisclosed. FDV: Synthetix $4.20B, CRV undisclosed, UNI undisclosed. Annual revenue: Synthetix $2.00M, CRV undisclosed, UNI undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Synthetix undisclosed, CRV undisclosed, UNI undisclosed. Numbers based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view doubles revenue, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 53/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus on these metrics: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, re-evaluation needed.
Fundamentals analyzed, market direction is another matter.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of an "economic isolation operation" against Iran, expanding sanctions to five major areas including digital assets, gold, and shipping, and warned that countries continuing to do business with Iran could be kicked out of the dollar system. Logically, this would raise geopolitical premiums, yet oil prices have clearly fallen—on Tuesday, WTI dropped more than 3% to $82.36, and Brent fell nearly 4% to $88.58.
The reason is not complicated. The market's biggest fear before was military escalation and physical disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Although economic sanctions may compress Iran's exports in the long term, their short-term impact on actual supply is much less than another war. The U.S. shifting from "hard military" to "soft economic" measures directly reduces the probability of the worst-case scenario, quickly squeezing out risk premiums.
Additionally, the sanctions details leave room: major buyers like China were not immediately named, nor was a clear timetable for secondary sanctions given. Coupled with Iran discussing temporary shipping routes with Oman and the U.S. considering sending diplomats back to the Middle East—signals of easing—traders are more inclined to believe the negotiation window is still open. Profit-taking after consecutive rises further amplified the decline.
Simply put, the current market pricing logic is: the supply threat from economic pressure is temporarily less than that from military conflict. As long as there is no more severe physical disruption in the strait, oil prices are more likely to oscillate downward rather than surge unilaterally. $CL $XAU $BTC Late night group chat, two groups: those showing off their orders and those asking about buying the coin
At 1 a.m., the atmosphere in the $HYPE group was clearly split. One group was showing off their orders, having bought in at $60, with nearly 40% unrealized gains, all captioned "Faith is priceless." The other group privately messaged me: "Siu bro, it's at 83 now, can I still get in?"
I didn’t answer directly but asked back: "Do you know that only 22.2% of $HYPE is in circulation?"
They were stunned. This is a ledger most chasing new highs never consider!
What you’re buying on the secondary market with real money is the price of circulating tokens, while the project team and early contributors still hold 77.8% locked up, with nearly ten million tokens unlocking every month. At current prices, that’s a potential supply of seven to eight hundred million USD monthly. You see the breakout new high candlestick; they see inventory that’s getting more valuable as the price rises.
The guy showing off his order was right too—the trend isn’t broken. But the interests of trend believers and inventory holders only align when the price is rising.
Later, I gave the guy asking about buying a straightforward truth: it’s not that you can’t buy, but you need to know who you’re sitting at the table with. Some at the table hold costs from three years ago, while you hold costs at the historical high. Same table, completely different game. He said he understood and then said he’d think it over. Being able to "think it over" already beats half the people.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 At the close of US Eastern Time on August 25 (early morning Beijing Time on August 26), the full text focuses on the storage industry chain analysis. 1. Overview of Overnight US Stocks: The three major indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq leading gains and ending a seven-day losing streak. The core driver was the market's optimistic expectations ahead of Nvidia's Q2 earnings report, restoring sentiment in tech growth stocks, with semiconductors and optical communications sectors leading the market; value stocks performed relatively flat, with the Dow Jones narrowing its gains. • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.30%, closed at 53,577.40 points, rebounding for the third consecutive day • S&P 500 Index: +0.32%, closed at 7,677.28 points; eight of eleven major sectors rose, three fell, with information technology leading gains and energy falling over 1% to lead losses • Nasdaq Composite Index: +0.66%, closed at 26,151.30 points, up 171.11 points for the day, breaking above the 30-day moving average intraday and closing above the 5-day moving average • Volatility Index VIX: fell to 17.2, with risk aversion easing marginally ahead of earnings • Trading characteristics: Tech stock trading activity rebounded, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up over 1.4%; funds slightly rotated from defensive sectors like energy and consumer back into the tech growth track, showing clear style rebalancing features. Core market features: The AI industry chain overall stopped falling and warmed up, Nvidia ended its seven-day losing streak, with the market preemptively pricing in earnings beats. The storage sector showed a differentiated rebound, with Seagate and Western Digital leading gains over 3%, Micron and SK Hynix up over 2%, SanDisk slightly down, intensifying internal sector divergence. 2. Global Stocks$ETH ETH｜Second Largest Market Cap
🟣 ETH is approaching $2,500, is the real opportunity just beginning?
ETH is currently around $2,495, with a market cap exceeding $300B, up about 32% in the past 7 days, recently outperforming BTC significantly.
The most critical question for ETH now:
Can it truly break through $2,500 and hold?
If it breaks through:
$2,500
↓
$2,600
↓
The market could further open up upside potential.
But if it fails to break $2,500 multiple times, it may short-term return to oscillate around $2,400.
Additionally, I will pay special attention to:
Whether ETH/BTC continues to strengthen.
If ETH starts to consistently outperform BTC, it means capital might be flowing from BTC to ETH.
🎯 My view: ETH is slightly strong in the short term, $2,500 is a key watershed.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold? #ETH fluctuates after reaching $2,500 #US initiates economic isolation of Iran, why did oil prices fall?
💥 Morning breaking news! $BTC surged to 81,000 then quickly fell back, the critical battle for survival intensifies!
This morning, Bitcoin tested a high of $81,000, approaching the key resistance of the 50-week moving average at 81,000-82,000, then faced pressure and retreated, currently fluctuating around 79,000.
In the past week, it surged 25%, with last week's spot BTC ETF net inflows reaching $1.92 billion, marking the largest capital inflow in nearly 10 months. Shorts were liquidated in a chain reaction totaling $7.2 billion, fueling this short squeeze rally.
Galaxy's core signal is once again a hot topic in the market:
Historically, in 13 weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, 11 confirmed bear market bottoms, an 85% success rate. Only a steady weekly close above 82,000 can effectively confirm the end of the bear market; intraday spikes do not count as signals.
However, short-term alarms have already sounded:
The 7-day ROC increased by 25%. In the past five years, this range of increase was usually followed by sharp corrections and washouts. Short-term profit-taking has piled up heavily, high-level selling pressure continues to intensify, and historically there have been two false breakout traps.
On one side, institutional funds continue to enter, supported by historical signals of a bear-to-bull transition;
On the other side, short-term gains are overextended, and the risk of high-level volatility is increasing.
This week's weekly closing price will directly determine whether this rally initiates a major uptrend or results in a pullback trapping late buyers.Oil prices plunged nearly 5% in one day, temporarily easing inflation alarms. Both the stock market and gold showed some support, but the crypto market seemed unaffected. $BTC only dropped 0.53%, $ETH fell 1.52%, and the entire market showed a tired mood of "no rise despite good news." The money hasn't left; it's just igniting in narrower corners. Article outline - 🔍 Oil price plunge, where is the money flowing? - 🎯 The truth in trading volume: who is being frantically bought - 📉 Why crypto is numb to good news - ⚡ Operational insights: don't fight the market Today's snapshot $BTC 78,476, -0.53% $ETH 2,443, -1.52% $QQQ +0.62%, $SPY +0.32% $DXY +0.02%, $GLD +0.32% $IBIT +0.18% VIX 15.46, -2.40% $USO 126.15, -4.58% Dow Jones 53,577.4, +0.30% 1. Oil price plunge, where is the money flowing? 🔍 Today $USO plunged 4.58% in a single day, closing at 126.15. Crude oil bulls were caught off guard by news of Iran and Oman discussing a "transition framework." The drop in oil prices directly lowered inflation expectations. $QQQ +0.62%, $SPY +0.32%, Dow Jones 53,577.4 +0.30%, the stock market welcomed this with gains. $GLD rose slightly by 0.32%, continuing its climb after four consecutive gains; $DXY $ZEC, $SNDK, I already posted my views yesterday saying that ZEC has reached a turning point, and SNDK can be shorted at 1550. I actually have some basis and opinions on this.
1. Based on BTC catching up and breaking previous highs, ETH consolidating, and other sectors pulling back and falling, it’s clear that the current market lacks capital momentum. A correction is necessary to ease the selling pressure from profit-taking.
2. ZEC, as a 🐲 privacy coin, has nearly doubled and entered the top ten by market cap. One point to mention is that this coin once dropped nearly 50% in one day, then recovered over a month. Institutions likely accumulated during that period. Now, with many positive factors released and the price doubled, without continued positive support, only selling to lock in profits remains. This time, watch the support structure around 720.
3. This round of rise is considered a rebound, not a reversal, because many sectors and coins have not caught up, indicating limited capital inflow and single-institution involvement, not a broad rally driven by large funds.
In summary, continue holding short positions and observe support levels: ETH 2380, BTC 77500. If the market holds, run the shorts; if not, continue adding to the position.Recently, a piece of news about CORE has been circulating in overseas communities, claiming that a highly influential KOL has made a statement that CORE will challenge the $0.8 level tonight. As soon as the news broke, many followers felt a surge of excitement in their hearts. But looking calmly at the market, CORE's current price is around 0.025. If this target is realized, it would mean a multiplication of dozens of times in the short term. Such expectations have already gone beyond normal market volatility; they sound more like emotional slogans rather than fundamental judgments. Such rumors share a common feature: they come from community opinion, not from official announcements from project teams or actual on-chain progress. Although the bloggers making the announcements may have great enthusiasm for the project, enthusiasm alone cannot control the market rhythm. To achieve such an exaggerated rally in a short time, massive incremental capital and extremely heavy positive news are needed simultaneously, which obviously cannot be carried by a single social media post. Now let's look at the actual market environment CORE faces. Recently, its resistance level is roughly between 0.026 and 0.03, with many historical positions accumulating above, indicating that selling pressure is not easy. Liquidity is also relatively limited, and under such a broad backdrop, achieving a multiple-fold jump is almost lacking in real support. Even if the BTC-Fi narrative has broader potential in the future, it is still a medium- to long-term story that requires time to mature and is unlikely to suddenly be realized on a certain night. In fact, something like "tonight."Japan plans to study 24-hour instant settlement for bonds and stocks. The core contradiction lies in the fact that the traditional capital market's around-the-clock trading has leveled the time difference with crypto assets, but the funding supply gap during off-peak hours will amplify cross-market interest rate spread fluctuations.
The push for instant clearing in traditional bond and stock markets around the clock is primarily driven by eliminating the hedging time difference within the clearing cycle. The second driving factor is the real-time transmission mechanism of US dollar interest rate policy and Japanese yen bond market yields during non-Asian trading hours.
When the clearing time for same-day stocks and Japanese bonds shortens to real-time, volatility during US stock market hours will directly force an immediate reconstruction of yen liquidity. Gold and crypto assets, as existing around-the-clock pricing benchmarks, may serve as risk-hedging capital reservoirs during liquidity gaps in traditional markets.
In a scenario of improved cross-market capital efficiency, if Japanese bond instant clearing transitions smoothly and overnight lending follows suit, global capital can seamlessly allocate yen assets during US stock market hours. This will smooth the US-Japan interest rate spread, narrow the premium range for gold and crypto assets, and enhance cross-market capital efficiency.
In a scenario of overnight liquidity squeeze, if market makers' quote depth is insufficient during off-peak hours, fluctuations in US bond yields may trigger forced replenishment chain reactions in Japanese bond instant clearing. At this time, yen exchange rate volatility will instantly squeeze liquidity in the US stock night session, forcing capital to exit for risk aversion and triggering cross-market liquidation linkage in gold and crypto assets.
If Japanese financial authorities tighten the yen overnight lending pool while promoting around-the-clock settlement, the assumption of increased asset turnover from instant clearing will fail.
If major central banks establish around-the-clock real-time clearing swap arrangements, the risk of overnight liquidity gaps during off-peak hours will be effectively hedged, breaking the logic of liquidation chain reactions in the downside scenario.
In the next 7 days, key observations will focus on the marginal volatility of the US dollar against the yen during non-Asian trading hours, as well as the real-time linkage sensitivity between US bond yields and cross-market hedging assets during US stock market hours.
#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #阿里配售获超额认购，高管增持能否稳住信心？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口🚨 CRYPTO ETF DEMAND IS BROADENING BUT THE NEXT TEST IS PROFIT-TAKING
The latest move in crypto is becoming harder to dismiss as a purely leverage-driven rally.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in roughly $1.92B last week, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. Ethereum ETFs also recorded a strong week, adding roughly $697M.
That tells us something important:
Institutional demand is returning alongside the price.
And now the story is beginning to spread beyond $BTC
$ETH and other crypto ETF products are attracting attention, suggesting that capital may gradually be moving from the market leader toward higher-beta opportunities.
But there's another side to this.
With BTC trading around the $79K area and sentiment firmly in greed territory, the market is becoming increasingly crowded.
That's where profit-taking becomes a serious risk.
After such a strong rally, some investors will naturally lock in gains. The key question isn't whether selling happens — it's whether buyers can absorb it.
If BTC pulls back and ETF demand remains strong, that would be a healthy sign.
If price stalls while fresh inflows continue, even better.
But if ETF demand starts fading at the same time that profit-taking accelerates, the market could finally need a deeper reset.
So I'm watching three things:
BTC: Can it hold the breakout structure?
ETF flows: Does institutional demand remain consistent?
ETH/altcoins: Does capital continue spreading beyond Bitcoin?
The strongest signal wouldn't be another massive green candle.
It would be Bitcoin consolidating at higher levels while capital keeps flowing in.
That's how a rally starts proving it has substance.
For now, I'm bullish on the demand trend — but I'm not chasing blindly.
Let the flows confirm the price. 📈SOXL dropped from 302 to 111, a pullback of over 60%, yet nearly $7 billion was still poured in during the first two weeks from July to August. This isn’t bottom-fishing; it’s throwing money into a meat grinder.
With triple-leveraged products, the more they fall, the more people buy—not cheap shares, but exposure that’s compounding losses daily. Chip stocks have fallen this much, and money isn’t flowing into the underlying stocks but is instead diving into triple-leveraged ETFs. I really don’t get it.
Either someone is betting that this semiconductor drop is the last one and wants to use leverage to recover all previous losses at once; or retail investors see 111 as cheaper than 302 and think it’s a bargain. The former is bold, the latter hasn’t calculated the compound loss.
I’m not taking sides, just watching the show. Whether this $7 billion ends up catching a falling knife or picking up gold, when chip stocks truly rebound, we’ll see who cracks first.Many people don't know what the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is about? Key focus on the cryptocurrency sector. 1. Core transmission logic The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is known as the global monetary policy barometer and is the most important policy-setting window before the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting. The transmission path to the crypto market is very clear: Federal Reserve policy statements → U.S. Treasury yields/USD index fluctuations → global liquidity expectations changes → risk asset valuation restructuring → amplified synchronous reaction in the crypto market. Cryptocurrencies are high-beta risk assets, with sensitivity to interest rates, the dollar, and liquidity significantly higher than traditional assets like U.S. stocks and commodities. Marginal changes in policy expectations are leveraged and amplified, causing large fluctuations. 2. Dual impact dimensions of the 2026 Annual Meeting This year's meeting (August 27-29, with Chair Powell's keynote on the 28th) is themed "Financial Innovation: Impact on Payments and Policy," marking the first time the focus is directly on payments and digital assets. Therefore, the impact is divided into two major dimensions: 1. Conventional dimension: September rate cut path calibration (core impact) This has been the core market driver at previous meetings. The market currently broadly prices in a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Different statements will directly reverse market direction: • Dovish statement: implies a 50bp cut in September, or more rate cuts within the year, or an extended rate cut cycle → USD index falls, U.S. Treasury yields decline → overall crypto market valuation recovers, with leading mainstream assets like BTC, ETH leading gains, potentially challenging the $80,000 level. • Neutral statement PROFIT-TAKING PRESSURE IS RISING
$BTC breaking above $80K and $ETH above $2.5K triggered profit-taking, pushing both back from recent highs However, ETF flows remain a key bright spot, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting roughly $1.92B and Ethereum ETFs about $697M over the past week—the strongest weekly inflows of 2026
In my view, the pullback looks more like profit absorption after a strong rally than a confirmed reversal. The key test is whether ETF demand remains resilient as $BTC retests $79K–$80KThe recent strong performance of ZEC and HYPE made the market think they had found their own narrative, but a closer look at the structure of funds and news shows these two coins seem to be being temporarily supported by external forces rather than initiating an endogenous trend. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH are leading the market higher with a more solid pace, and this divergence itself is the most noteworthy signal. Let's look at ZEC first. The New York Stock Exchange approved the listing of Grayscale's Zcash Trust ETF, which indeed opened a compliant and regulated capital channel for ZEC. From an institutional perspective, it was a milestone progress and a direct catalyst for the previous rapid price increase. But opening the channel does not mean capital will flow in. ETF listings are just the beginning; the real test lies in initial trading activity and net inflow data. Only these numbers can verify the real demand of institutions and retail investors, rather than just lingering at the sentiment level of "positive news being realized." If subsequent traffic weakens, the earlier gains will lack support, and pullback pressure will naturally emerge. Now let's look at HYPE. Its rise relies more on Trump's public statements, claiming that the CFTC is working to push Hyperliquid into the U.S. market "in a fully legal and compliant manner." As soon as this statement was made, HYPE's price reacted quickly, and the market interpreted it as a signal of policy easing. But we must clearly recognize that such statements are still verbal and lack specific regulatory detailsZEC and HYPE have undoubtedly been market focal points recently, but the engines driving their rise are fundamentally different. One is driven by expectations of compliant channels, while the other is betting on verbal promises from politicians. As Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to hit new heights and drive overall risk appetite upward, these two tokens seem somewhat lacking in momentum, with price rhythms clearly lagging behind the broader market. This is often a warning sign, indicating that short-term strength may be coming to an end. Let's start with ZEC. The New York Stock Exchange approved the listing of Grayscale's Zcash trust product, structurally opening a brand-new capital gateway for ZEC. Compliant and regulated channels are self-evident for institutional capital; they lower the entry barrier and give assets a more respectable status. This was the direct catalyst for ZEC's previous strength, with a clear and solid logic. But we need to calmly realize that opening channels does not necessarily mean capital inflows. The true quality of ETFs or trust products ultimately depends on trading volume and net inflow data at the time of listing. If subsequent disclosed capital scales are mediocre, then previous gains are more about sentiment pricing than reflections of real demand. Before the data becomes clear, it is probably too early to fully interpret ZEC's rise as a trend reversal. Now let's look at HYPE. Its outbreak was largely due to Trump's public statement that the CFTC is working hard to promote Hyperliquid$TRUMP chased the price from the peak down to a halving cut-loss, enduring all kinds of fake "positive pump" moves along the way, and saying more about it only brings tears.
But putting personal emotions aside and looking calmly at $TRUMP's fate, this rebound is indeed the most decent yet also the most dangerous.
The letter from Democratic Senators like Warren to the SEC is no joke—it directly labels it an "illegal scam" and accuses the family of illicit gains, effectively putting a political knife to the coin's neck. The November midterm elections are the lifeline: if Trump loses, once the Democrats take power, not only will this coin be "completely" dead, but they may also seriously investigate foreign buyers and related trading platforms. Binance, as a major liquidity venue, will inevitably be heavily impacted.
Ultimately, the destiny of this coin is tied to Trump's political life. No matter what "patriotic narratives" or "community defense" plot twists occur, they cannot change the essence that policy risk > market logic. The lesson I learned from losing money is simple: don't bet against political gambles; no matter how strong the rebound, it's just a ladder for the smart to escape. #特朗普因TruthSocial付费数据流遭起诉 $TRUMP #特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC，性质未披露 #TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？ What exactly is the market waiting for? A sharp bull rally? A sudden bear plunge?
Tonight at 20:30, the US July PCE Price Index and the Q2 GDP revision will be released simultaneously. The market generally expects overall PCE to rise 3.6% year-on-year, with core PCE steady at 3.3%—but this figure is still far from the Fed's 2% target. Can this really reassure anyone?
Immediately after, at 22:00 on Friday night, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Symposium. These two events are less than 48 hours apart, and the September rate-setting meeting is not far off. Is the market trying to piece together signals from these two sets of information? Or is the real uncertainty hidden in Wash's wording?
If the PCE exceeds expectations, will the probability of a rate hike return?
Core PCE has been running above 3% for several consecutive months. If tonight's data again exceeds expectations, will market bets on a September rate hike heat up? If US Treasury yields surge, can risk assets hold up? Don't forget, Boston Fed President Collins said just this Tuesday—without evidence of sustained inflation decline, rate hikes must happen soon. Three officials already voted for a rate hike at the July meeting; will more lean hawkish this time?
Conversely, if the PCE meets or falls below expectations, the probability of unchanged rates naturally increases. But the problem is, core PCE at 3.3% is still 1.65 times the target. Can the Fed now say "victory"? Probably not yet.
Which direction will Wash's Friday speech lean?
The tone of this speech likely has three paths:
· If hawkish, clearly warning of inflation upside risks, will the market come under short-term pressure? Will crypto assets face another round of sell-off?
· If dovish, emphasizing patience and data dependence, will risk appetite return? Can $BTC and $ETH rebound on this momentum?
· If ambiguous, neither ruling out nor committing, won't market expectations remain suspended, prolonging the volatile pattern?
More to ponder—if tonight's PCE already exceeds expectations and Wash turns hawkish on Friday, will their negative effects stack? Conversely, if data is cooler and Wash is moderate, does that give bulls a breathing window?
Funds are still flowing in; can prices hold?
From ETF flows, BTC and ETH have recently maintained net inflows, with no large-scale withdrawals. Does this mean institutional funds are still supporting the bottom? But can this support withstand sharp macro sentiment swings?
Technically, ETH's one-hour uptrend remains intact, with short-term support at $2439 and $2414, and resistance at $2475 and $2510. BTC also shows an upward pattern on smaller timeframes, with $78000 near a key defense line for bulls. But once negative news hits, will these technical levels still hold?
How to view the next two days?
Tonight's data sets the tone, and Friday's Wash speech will finalize it. Together, they will likely determine overall market sentiment before the September rate meeting. There is no clear one-way signal now, but volatility is bound to increase. Should one hold positions and wait, or reduce exposure and watch? Where to set stop-losses, and should profit targets be adjusted? These questions probably won't have clearer answers until after Wash speaks.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $SOL US public chains have long planned stablecoins
SOL, AVAX, APT, and Celo, these US-backed public chains, have already completed stablecoin deployments. SOL and AVAX heavily host external mainstream stablecoins, solidifying the DeFi liquidity foundation; APT targets institutional RWA-compliant stablecoins; Celo goes further, possessing native protocol stablecoins cUSD and USAT, building an on-chain payment financial closed loop, continuously feeding its own ecosystem with stablecoins. Now, two major public chains have new stablecoin plans in the sector: RVN is deploying decentralized stablecoins, and Mina is developing privacy stablecoins. RVN focuses on tokenizing RWA assets, using decentralized stablecoins to complete the full loop of asset issuance, pricing, and settlement, avoiding the risk of centralized stablecoin censorship and freezing. Mina leverages 22KB lightweight ZK technology to push into the privacy stablecoin track, targeting institutional private settlements and the privacy RWA blue ocean, turning ZK technology narratives into on-chain financial products. However, both are still in the conceptual stage, with oracle, reserve mechanisms, and liquidity construction yet to be implemented and verified. Compared to ONE, which lacks native stablecoin issuance capability and only activates DeFi by bridging and mapping assets like USDC, DAI, and FRAX through external infusion. The stablecoin sector shows clear model differentiation: compliant native, decentralized concepts, privacy narratives, and bridging hosting each have trade-offs. Concept does not equal implementation; to evaluate public chain ecosystem strength, one must distinguish asset sources from product maturity. If the market only rewards the strong, does that mean the neglected assets actually hide even greater expectations? What would you choose: chase what has already started, or lurk in a hidden corner? Let me share my impressions from watching the market these past two days. SNDK's situation is somewhat like that of a girl who studies well but is always neglected in class. The underlying logic is clearly solid; the demand for enterprise-grade NAND and AI storage is there, yet prices remain stagnant. After sliding down from the June high, the tokenized market and perpetual market basically hovered between 1589 and 1596. Buyers have very weak defensive willingness during pullbacks, and the market gives the impression of—not because no one wants it, but because no one is eager to buy it. This combination of "strong fundamentals and weak price" generally has two interpretations in the market. One believes it's a temporary market pricing failure, while the other thinks funds have more efficient destinations. The current situation is more like the latter, because funds are indeed crowding into more aggressive stocks like BICO, BEAT, ALLO, KAITO. This itself is a signal: the current market's risk appetite is not evenly distributed but highly selective. If you look back a bit, this is actually a vote about "certainty." BTC holds the overall balance, ETH occasionally performs, but the real excess returns are on tokens with more focused themes and fresher narratives. SNDK's problem is that its narrative is too "industrial" and not sexy enough; the market is reluctant to pay it a premium when sentiment is high$CORE is all about BTCFi, but STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY are fundamentally different asset classes
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is only for outlining the track logic and technical architecture, and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto is highly volatile; please DYOR.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is booming, but many people tend to confuse STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY. In fact, although these four projects all carry the "BTCFi" label, their underlying positioning, security models, and business logic are completely different. Some are building elevated bridges, some are creating new continents, and others are in the "security business." Today, we will clarify these four tracks thoroughly in 1000 words.
1. Core Positioning: Four Completely Different Species
STX (Stacks): The "veteran" native Bitcoin L2
Stacks is one of the earliest explorers of Bitcoin Layer 2. It uses a unique PoX consensus and the Clarity language, aiming to implement smart contracts without modifying the Bitcoin mainnet.
Core logic: Connect assets through sBTC, allowing users to play DeFi on top of Bitcoin. After the Nakamoto upgrade, it achieves second-level confirmation, but its non-EVM nature means it is a relatively closed yet highly native track.
CORE (Core DAO): The "independent L1" with its own power grid
CORE is not a layer two but an independent Layer 1 public chain. It pioneered the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, "borrowing" idle computing power from Bitcoin miners to secure its own chain.
Core logic: Build an EVM-compatible "Bitcoin power grid." It serves retail users and focuses heavily on institutional lstBTC (liquid staking Bitcoin) business, aiming to become the underlying infrastructure for RWA and payments.
MERL (Merlin Chain): The "ZK express lane" for inscription players
MERL is an authentic Bitcoin ZK-Rollup Layer 2 network. It was created to solve congestion and high gas fees for BRC20 and inscription assets on the BTC mainnet.
Core logic: EVM-compatible, specifically serving liquidity release for BTC native assets (Ordinals/Runes). Its success heavily depends on the activity of the inscription market.
BABY (Babylon): The "wholesaler" of Bitcoin security
BABY’s concept is the most unique. It is not a chain for running applications but a Bitcoin staking protocol.
Core logic: Allows users to stake BTC directly on the Bitcoin mainnet and "rent out" the security of these BTC to other PoS public chains (such as the Cosmos ecosystem). It is currently the only solution to achieve BTC non-custodial staking.
2. Security Watershed: Who is truly guarding your BTC?
This is the most hardcore metric to distinguish these four projects.
BABY (top tier): BTC always remains in the Bitcoin mainnet’s UTXO, no cross-chain bridges, no wrapped assets (no wrapping), purely cryptographic staking. This is currently the safest trust model in the industry.
CORE (non-custodial): User BTC is locked in Bitcoin mainnet’s CLTV timelock, private keys are not handed over to anyone. The main risk lies in the relay nodes’ (Relayers) state synchronization mechanism.
STX (consortium): Connects assets through sBTC, relying on a decentralized signer alliance. Although there are economic incentives and penalties, there is still a theoretical risk of collusion within the alliance.
MERL (custodial): User BTC enters MPC multi-signature custody addresses, mapping out stMBTC. Assets leave the mainnet, trusting the honesty of the MPC custodian, which carries counterparty risk.
3. Token Value Capture: Who is paying for the tokens?
STX: Burn model. Users consume STX when using the sBTC ecosystem; staking STX can earn BTC rewards (BTC-denominated yield).
CORE: Dual staking necessity. To obtain advanced yields, staking CORE is required; the official plan is to use revenue from institutional businesses like SatPay and lstBTC to buy back tokens.
MERL: Profit buyback. The official commitment is to use 50% of ecosystem profits for MERL buybacks. On-chain gas primarily consumes BTC; MERL is mainly used for node staking and governance.
BABY: Security rent. PoS public chains pay Babylon fees to obtain Bitcoin-level security. Meanwhile, BABY is also the network’s gas and governance token.
5. Summary
STX is the "conservative reformer" on Bitcoin, pursuing nativeness and stability.
CORE is the "radical infrastructure fanatic" in the Bitcoin world, pursuing scale and institutionalization.
MERL is the "traffic operator" of Bitcoin assets, pursuing speed and inscription popularity.
BABY is the "behind-the-scenes arms dealer" of Bitcoin security, pursuing ultimate cryptographic trust.
In this cycle, understanding which layer the asset is on (L1/L2/middleware) and who holds custody (non-custodial/custodial/consortium) is far more meaningful than just watching the K-line.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFi In the 20/21 and 24/25 Bitcoin bull market cycles, the biggest losses came from the asset communities acting as so-called builders, because they believed in and invested a lot of effort and time, but in the end, not only did their assets suffer significant losses, but there was also no positive feedback from the community or project teams, resulting in a lose-lose situation.
In the 2027-29 bull market cycle, the first thing to do is to stop being any kind of community builder starting today. Assets without builders mostly make money, while assets with builders tend to suffer heavy losses due to overconfidence and excessive faith.
Retail investors are just retail investors; they should just follow the market trends and take their share. Under no circumstances should they consider themselves the core of the community or members of the project team. Retail investors only need to exit early in PvP; long-term building never ends well. The new weekly candle for Bitcoin has closed, and a new phase has emerged.
Will the price hit a new low? Currently, everyone's answers are highly subjective. Objectively, it depends on the quality of the consolidation and pullback after this upward move ends. If the market does not see a larger supply (which can be understood as a major negative event or a black swan), then the probability of a new low is low. My subjective answer is that the chance of a short-term new low is below 50%, even below 30%. We can only wait for the market to provide a pullback opportunity to enter. We can also wait for the LPS, which is the final entry point in the accumulation zone.
Last week's large bullish candle, according to Wyckoff theory, had a clearly high volume. This is often defined as a strong SOS (Sign of Strength). Based on theory and past reviews, this behavior usually appears in the fourth phase of the accumulation zone, where "the main force believes that the supply of shares on the market has been exhausted, allowing the price to rise." Therefore, we should focus on observing whether there were signs of supply exhaustion before the bullish candle to verify the authenticity of the upward move.
Analyzing the daily chart makes this clearer. After the Spring phase, the consolidation and upward movement ended. The decline in segment a had a strong bearish candle, but the decline in segment b showed a reduced downward breakout, an SOT (Sign of Weakness). Comparing these two segments indicates that the supply pressure is weakening. Also, segment c shows a continuous decrease in volume. Therefore, after segment d (characterized by increasing volume with rising price, a feature of an orderly uptrend), we can conclude that segment b represents supply exhaustion, and the subsequent rise in segment d is likely genuine, which is also confirmed by volume.
Looking at the volume distribution, it shows a b-type distribution, corresponding to Wyckoff's accumulation pattern. The recent rise has already seen high volume nodes at the top, indicating that the market currently accepts this price and confirms the value of this price increase. So, when the market tends to accept the price rise, the trading strategy should lean towards the long side. $BTC
Today's Market
In the past two days, a tangible wave of selling pressure has been observed on-chain... The selling pressure comes from short-term traders taking profits... (Those short-term traders who entered at 60k and 63k) (Figure 1)
Realized profits reached nearly 1 billion in one day, about 1.5 billion over two days...
This scale has already exceeded the profit-taking scale during the previous rebounds at 98k and 83k...
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With selling pressure present, it depends on whether demand can absorb it...
Today's ETF demand still persists; pre-market Coinbase real demand continues to be slightly positive. The amplitude is not large, and the Z-score is not high... (Figure 2)
So it is estimated that inflows will continue at a scale of 200-300 million...
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Looking at the order book, only the buy orders in this lower contract wave are of reference now (Figure 3)
A large number of orders are placed between 77k and 78.4k...
So if there is an opportunity to enter, it is a very good low-risk long opportunity, like the green line.
But the concern is that since everyone sees the buy orders below, the price won't just move sideways here... (No sellers left to sell, and buyers can't push the price up)
Moving along the blue line would be very boring and hard to time entry.
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Combining with POC... (Figure 4)
Currently, the price is repeatedly testing yesterday's POC... It's late at night, so let's first talk about the recent trend of SanDisk token SNDK. Last night, I noticed that the $1415 to $1400 range was repeatedly confirmed. At that time, I judged the support to be fairly solid, with signs of short-term stabilization. Today, the price did not continue to fall and is currently hovering around $1493, with an intraday drop of about 6.5%. Overall, the pace remains cautious. From a short-term structural perspective, the first resistance above is around $1579. This position isn't too far, but whether it can successfully rise is the key to judging the quality of the rebound. If it can break through with increased volume and hold steady, the next step is to see $1630; Once $1630 is effectively captured, the market could open up new upside potential. However, before that, a prudent approach is to appropriately reduce positions rather than fully invest in the direction of the market. Of course, market sentiment at the moment is not relaxed. Monitoring data from TradingBeats shows that the total open interest value of Hyperliquid's three major storage tokens (SKHX, SNDK, MU) has shrunk from about $999 million to $677 million, a decrease of 32.2%. Among them, SNDK's OI dropped from about $196 million to $157 million, a decrease of 19.5%, while its holdings dropped sharply by 47.2%. These data suggest that on-chain is more like experiencing a "rebound after deleveraging" rather than a trend reversal. Looking at the changes in leverage itself,Bitcoin delivered a surprising report last week, with its price briefly reaching $79,500 on Friday—a level not seen in over three months. A weekly gain of about 25% has prompted many long-dormant market participants to regain their composure. What's even more interesting is that this rally was not driven by a single piece of news, but rather by several forces resonating within the same time window. First to mention is the power of short covering. In recent months, the market has been filled with strong caution, with many investors choosing to build short positions to hedge downside risks. When prices stabilize and break upward, these short positions are forced to close, which in turn further pushes prices higher. Such technical buying often comes quickly and fiercely, making this rally especially aggressive in a short period. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury has sent a noteworthy signal regarding liquidity. The support measures it provides to the government bond market are interpreted by the market as a disguised liquidity protection. When liquidity in traditional financial markets tends to loosen, the attractiveness of risk assets naturally rises. Bitcoin, as a highly volatile asset, is often the first to sense this change in water temperature, accelerating the pace of capital inflows. From a broader perspective, this rebound may mark a phase of market sentiment recovery. The recent declines in recent months have left many holders exhausted, and this rally has helped ease that sense of oppression to some extent. But we also need to stay clear-headed: rapid price surges are often accompanied by high volatility, and market sentiment can be triggered by new macros at any timeSpot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 337.56M USDT net inflow, marking a seven-day streak and signaling sustained institutional accumulation rather than retail FOMO reuters. This structural demand creates a high floor for prices, as ETF issuers must purchase underlying spot $BTC to back new shares, directly absorbing sell pressure and validating the uptrend as fundamentally driven by traditional finance allocation shifts.$xPOPMART Pop Mart is ready to start regular investments
I am quite optimistic about the development of this coin
First, let's talk about why the stock's performance hasn't been very good
Because in the early stage, Pop Mart just went viral, it was in an explosive growth phase with rapid business expansion, and the domestic market is an emerging market. The IP trendy toy category is essentially like Moutai in the liquor circle, belonging to the consumer goods sector. In recent years, consumption has been in a downward phase, and the consumer sector's performance has generally been poor. Those with financial attributes or luxury goods sales have also generally declined. This is mainly due to the cloud economy downturn and being drained by technology, and Pop Mart has been affected by these factors.
1. Business exploded, but domestic recognition of the trendy toy business is still in the exploratory stage
2. Economic downturn reduces consumption capacity, weakening the trendy toy IP business
However, when the economy improves and consumption rises, trendy toy IP projects are emerging projects with a target audience of young people and children
They easily become popular, and the brand awareness has already risen
Similar to how when you think of toys, you think of LEGO
But domestically, when people mention trendy toys, most only think of Pop Mart Some stories do not begin in the clamor but gather momentum in silence.
Nova originally means a new star.
NovaAI is connecting technology, consensus, and new narratives.
The momentum has gathered, the light is coming 🌹🌹🌹 Among all the overanalyzed indicators in the crypto market, the BTC-ETH price ratio is one of the few "capital sentiment barometers" that almost never lies.
— It doesn't rely on the pretty charts drawn from candlesticks, nor is it disturbed by short-term news noise; it directly lays out the current market-wide risk appetite right in front of you.
Many people always say they want to hedge across markets, watching the ups and downs of US stocks until dawn, only to end up sleepless and with orders being swept back and forth. In fact, there's no need to stretch the battle line so far. The core anchor point you really need to watch has never been on the US stock market across the ocean; it's in the relative price between these two leading crypto assets.
The recent large net inflows into the dual ETFs hide a detail overlooked by most: the capital allocation scale was tilted from the start. The inflow volume BTC received far outpaces ETH. Institutional allocation paths have no detours: first, firmly build the base position in $BTC, using it as the "macro hedge ballast" for the entire crypto asset portfolio. Only when the market's risk appetite completes the switch from "defense" to "offense" will incremental funds truly open the door to ETH's elastic premium.
When the price ratio rises, it means capital is voting with its feet, choosing Bitcoin's certainty; when the ratio turns downward, it means the market is finally willing to pay for Ethereum's growth potential and ecological dividends. Rather than rashly assuming ETH will start a violent catch-up now, it's better to treat this price ratio signal as a traffic light for position adjustment—step on the gas when the green light is on, which is much steadier than blindly rushing ahead with eyes closed.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Is BTC's full rally just missing one last condition? Hyperliquid whales turning bullish might be the fuse
Everyone is watching whether BTC can hold above 80,000, but what really determines a "full rally" versus a "false breakout" might not be CPI or ETFs, but the stance of those multi-million dollar whales on Hyperliquid.
Let's review the on-chain rhythm:
• In early March 2026, Hyperliquid whales flipped from net short to net long, then BTC pushed from 65,000 to nearly 80,000
• At the same time, the perpetual funding rate was negative for 47 consecutive days—shorts paying longs, a classic squeeze precursor
• But in August, when platform whales' total positions were about $5.16 billion, shorts (50.9%) still slightly outnumbered longs (49.1%), and longs were overall at a floating loss, indicating smart money was adding longs but retail/hedge funds hadn't capitulated yet
• In other words: whales have "turned bullish" before, but not to a "full consensus bullish" state, so spot ETF outflows and macro shocks easily push BTC back into consolidation
So the last condition is simple: Hyperliquid whales' net long positions continue to expand + funding rates return to positive or neutral + spot ETF outflows stop. When these three align, BTC won't be a leveraged solo dance but a true breakout recognized by spot. The current state = whales have ignited the fuse, but the fuel isn't fully loaded yet. Mainland China's gold buying strength has picked up again.
Hong Kong's net gold exports to the mainland reached 56.193 tons in July, an increase of about 11% month-on-month and about 28% year-on-year.
Interestingly, Hong Kong's total gold exports to the mainland actually slightly declined, but net exports rose, indicating less gold is flowing back to Hong Kong after reaching the mainland.
The market generally believes this reflects stronger investment demand, with gold bars and coins being more attractive than jewelry consumption.
Gold has recently strengthened again, driven not only by European and American funds but also by rising Asian demand.
As more funds are willing to convert cash into gold, this itself is a signal worth the crypto community's continued attention: market interest in "scarce assets" has not cooled down.
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 CORE SatPay New Type of Bank: Underlying Infrastructure Implementation
In the entire CORE "Bitcoin Electric Network" BTC-Fi narrative, SatPay is positioned as a new type of Bitcoin bank (Neobank) and is the most important terminal product connecting on-chain BTC staking yields with real-world consumption scenarios. It is jointly developed by CORE and payment infrastructure service provider Mobilum.
Core Product Logic of SatPay
It focuses on Bitcoin self-repaying loans + debit card consumption model:
Users stake lstBTC/coreBTC (Bitcoin liquid staking certificates) to borrow stablecoins, which are loaded onto partner debit cards for daily spending; the staked Bitcoin continuously generates staking yields, and the protocol automatically uses these yields to offset loan repayments.
This allows spending Bitcoin-generated yields without selling Bitcoin, with assets held in a non-custodial manner, so users' BTC assets are not held by the platform.
Once the product is officially commercialized, fees generated from lending and card transactions will become an important real-world revenue source for the CORE ecosystem, supporting token buyback narratives.
Clarify: Underlying Capabilities VS SatPay Application Product
✅ Underlying infrastructure has been operational and generating on-chain revenue
1. The Satoshi-Plus consensus network is running stably; the lstBTC Bitcoin liquid staking certificate mainnet is available; institutional custody channels are connected; real BTC staking has been onboarded; the protocol has generated actual on-chain fee income.
2. Based on lstBTC, the London Stock Exchange has launched a Bitcoin yield ETP institutional product supported by CORE technology, with the underlying technical framework preliminarily validated by traditional financial markets.
3. Lending modules, oracles, and liquidation components are all ready, providing foundational support for SatPay.
⚠️ The SatPay product itself has not yet been officially launched commercially
The project's early external communication planned to release the official SatPay version in the first half of 2026. As of now, the product is still in technical development and multi-region compliance review stages.
- Product blueprints and partnership signing information have been disclosed externally, and early community warm-up activities have been conducted, but no official app or web portal is open to the public;
- Debit card issuance, KYC, and payment license reviews in different regions are the current biggest bottlenecks;
- Complete security audit reports, large-scale real user closed-loop transactions, and special fee income generated by SatPay business have not yet been publicly available.
Many communities easily confuse two things: lstBTC staking business generating income does not mean the SatPay new bank has launched and is running commercial operations. The foundation is completed, but that does not mean the stores upstairs are open for business.
Common Misconceptions
❌ Misconception 1: CORE has obtained a banking license and opened a physical bank
✅ Truth: It is a crypto neobank application relying on partner Mobilum's existing payment licenses to enable debit card functionality, not CORE applying for a traditional banking license.
❌ Misconception 2: You can now stake BTC and directly use the SatPay card for offline spending
✅ Truth: The conceptual logic is complete and the prototype is finished, but the official service is not yet publicly available and only exists on the roadmap.
❌ Misconception 3: Once officially announced, huge revenue will immediately follow
✅ Truth: Launching is just the starting point; revenue scale depends on user numbers, lending volume, and card transaction volume, and will be released gradually, not explosively.
Four Signals to Watch for SatPay's Real Implementation
1. Official announcement of launch with a publicly accessible product portal;
2. Disclosure of a complete third-party security audit report;
3. Debit card issuance and ordinary users completing the full stake-lend-spend closed loop;
4. On-chain queryable special fee income generated from SatPay business.
Objective Summary:
lstBTC staking as the BTC-Fi foundation is completed and generating real income; however, the highly anticipated SatPay neobank is still stuck in development and compliance processes. The narrative is grand, but commercial implementation must proceed step by step. Planning does not equal realized reality. Follow the above four verification signals closely going forward.
#CORE #SatPay #BTC-Fi #lstBTC #OKXPlanet #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
Latest Data
Brent crude $92.17, WTI crude $85.01, oil prices dropped over 2% after sanctions took effect.
$BTC 80583, ETH 2500, SOL $101; geopolitical news disturbed the market, high-volatility coins experienced amplified fluctuations.
Market Consensus
Sanctions escalation should have pushed oil prices up, confusion over the reverse decline in oil prices.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Typical buy the rumor, sell the fact. Geopolitical risk premium was already priced in earlier; this round is financial and economic sanctions, not military strikes, no disruption to oil transport routes, war risk expectations cooled, bulls concentrated on taking profits.
Risks are not fully eliminated; if Iran retaliates by blocking the strait, oil prices will rebound again. The oil price decline marginally eases inflation pressure, indirectly benefiting risk assets, but ETH and SOL remain vulnerable to macroeconomic fluctuations.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual bull market return, just personal opinion, not investment advice)
Do not equate geopolitical conflicts directly with inevitable oil price rises; the situation remains uncertain, avoid aggressive chasing of highs. Keep a close watch on oil prices and US Treasury yields, observe $BTC’s key support levels, strictly control positions in high-volatility coins. $PIEVERSE waterfall is really coming
I expect this daily candle close will start the waterfall
This coin has no liquidity. Every time it’s about to unlock or just unlocked since listing, it will pump up for selling. This time the pump is mainly because the liquidity of this coin was too poor in the early stage, many tokens couldn’t be sold. Plus the last unlock amount was huge, so it triggered a big rally upward. It can’t continue going up because the market is bad and liquidity is tightening. There was also a waterfall drop earlier that was pulled back, then it continued upward but formed a converging triangle, still below a key level. Now it’s breaking out but most likely a false breakout, unlikely to go up. After this bull trap, it will directly return to the previous low or even break a new low.$CORE is probing the dense trading zone between 0.017 and 0.018 during a range-bound phase, as the market is pricing in the shift from inflation incentives to expectations of real protocol revenue, alongside the reality of liquidity contraction in the broader market.
On-chain dual staking growth remains moderate, with tokens settling above the 0.012 mid-term threshold, without explosive volume surges following the 2026 roadmap announcement.
Institutional access to non-custodial lstBTC and the launch of SatPay payments aim to sever the token's reliance on inflationary issuance, shifting valuation support to normalized fee-based buybacks.
Whether this economic model transition can smoothly transmit to the secondary market depends on the speed of institutional capital accumulation through non-custodial channels; currently, on-chain conversion efficiency remains to be confirmed.
If the Los Angeles partner institution completes access and brings the first batch of real locked positions, the price is expected to break out of the narrow range through spot buying; if incremental funds fail to drive fee growth, valuation recovery will quickly lose momentum.
Should macro liquidity continue to outflow and BTC undergo a deep correction, positions lacking inflation subsidies may seek liquidity at the extreme low of 0.008, and breaking below the 0.012 support will confirm a weakening trend.
When on-chain activity and fee buybacks fail to fill the vacuum left by incentive tapering as expected, the narrative of revenue transformation will temporarily be repriced by the market as a liquidity discount.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is the daily net inflow rhythm of lstBTC staking after new custodial institutions gain access.
#阿里配售获超额认购，高管增持能否稳住信心？ #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level 📌 Two opposite signals released simultaneously: ① Iran pours cold water: Temporary channel ≠ immediate opening Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Karbasbadi clearly stated that the memorandum of understanding with Oman does not mean the Strait will reopen starting tomorrow. According to the agreement, the inbound and outbound routes will pass through Iranian and Omani waters respectively, forming a "two-way highway" about 7 nautical miles wide, but this is only a temporary arrangement; the permanent route requires 30 to 60 days of negotiation to finalize. Iran's attitude is cautious, emphasizing that the Strait is a national security issue. ② Russian media reveals a bombshell: US and Iran have reached consensus on ceasefire terms Sources from Pakistan's military and Iran's security departments revealed that the US and Iran have reached consensus on ceasefire agreement terms, including free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Related announcements are expected in the coming days, and technical meetings will be initiated. The two pieces of news are not synchronized: Iran denies immediate opening, but sources indicate substantial progress in US-Iran negotiations. 📊 Short-term impact on BTC, ETH, and altcoins: ① Mixed news sentiment If the "ceasefire consensus" is true, it means geopolitical risk shifts from "continuous escalation" to "controllable easing," increasing expectations for oil prices to come under pressure and fall, easing inflationary pressure, which is a medium-term positive for liquidity-sensitive crypto assets. However, Iran's denial of immediate opening combined with previous military declarations about mine clearance makes it difficult for the market to form a consistent short-term expectation. ② Initial signs of geopolitical positive signals, but official confirmation needed The ceasefire consensus is still at the "source reveals" stage, with uncertainties before implementation. What will truly boost the market is an official formal announcement, at which point oil price declines and risk appetite recovery will jointly benefit the market Key Focus: PCE Inflation Data | Nvidia Earnings Report | Jackson Hole Symposium | BTC $80,000 Confirmation
Macro and Market:
• BTC has retaken $80,000, and the real change is not the price but the beginning of a shift in capital structure. BTC hit a high of $81,266 yesterday, the highest since May, then pulled back to around $79,000 to consolidate. The cumulative gain in August is close to 30%. This rally is not purely driven by leverage: the US spot BTC ETFs have recently seen continuous net inflows, with about $1.9 billion net inflow last week, one of the strongest weeks this year; meanwhile, the US Treasury expanded its long-term bond repo program, causing long-end yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, further reinforcing the "devaluation trade" logic for gold and BTC.
• After BTC broke through $80,000, the market is shifting from a "short squeeze" to "spot confirmation." The previous rise was accompanied by large-scale short liquidations, but now the key is no longer how many shorts can be squeezed, but whether ETF funds can continue to flow in and whether spot buying can absorb profit-taking above $80,000. If BTC can form a new dense trading zone in the $78,000–$80,000 range, it indicates the breakout is transitioning from a short-term sentiment rally to a new price structure; conversely, if it quickly falls back below $76,000, caution is needed as the rally may re-enter a high volatility phase. The sentiment index remains at "extreme greed" (around 80–81).
• Today is the first real macro verification day of the week. The US In the early hours of August 25, @小二哥哥68's livestream focused on the intense fluctuations before and after the US stock market open, but no coherent, independently verifiable trading plan was formed. The streamer repeatedly emphasized "waiting for opportunities" and "not chasing trades," while quickly switching between losses, break-even losses, and "turnarounds." Rather than organizing scattered market statements into directional conclusions, a more accurate understanding is: this was a real-time trading record under high leverage sentiment, and what truly deserved to be preserved was the exposed risk boundaries. For $BTC, the anchor used the area around 79,000 to 80,000 yuan as the intraday observation zone at the time. When the price approached 80,000 but failed to sustain smoothly, he preferred to wait for a 15-minute interval to give a result: if the short-term breakout after the opening period could not continue, then consider shorting accordingly; If it's just a sharp rally or drop, it's not advisable to chase immediately. This condition has some logic: wait for the structure to be confirmed before choosing the direction, but the live stream didn't provide complete entry levels, stop-loss levels, and position ratios, so it can't be considered an executable BTC short strategy. Discussions about $ETH are even more inconsistent. The streamer once leaned toward bearish positions due to short-term volume drops and subsequent hour-level death crosses, and repeatedly warned that when there is no rebound structure at low levels, it's not advisable to go long; But when the price rebounds or the account's profit and loss change, the direction shifts accordingly. He mentioned conditions like "wait for a rebound before shorting" and "wait for stability and see an upward signal before considering short-term longing," but he did not consistently apply the same conditions to constrain the next trade. What can be distilled here is not ET