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$ETH IS QUIETLY CLOSING THE GAP The interesting part isn’t simply that ETF flows are still positive — it’s the share of new capital. On Aug. 25, $BTC ETFs attracted +$29.95M, while $ETH ETFs brought in +$25.75M — nearly the same, even though cumulative BTC ETF inflows remain far larger at $54.07B vs. $12.29B. New capital is being allocated more evenly between BTC and ETH. If this continues, ETH could become the bridge for the next rotation into altcoins.Interest Rate Cut Expectation Pricing Gap: BTC Earns Certainty, ETH Overdraws Sentiment Account In August, the crypto market rebounded from an oversold state into a policy window period. After BTC broke through the $80,000 mark, it pulled back to around $79,000, while ETH surged to $2,530 before retreating to about $2,450. Although the rise and fall appear synchronized, the pricing efficiency and safety margin of the two regarding the Fed's rate cut expectations have long been worlds apart. BTC prices rise moderately, step by step pricing in fundamental recovery, while ETH uses extreme elasticity to quickly overdraw sentiment expectations. This pricing gap represents the biggest opportunity and trap before the Jackson Hole Symposium. BTC's trend closely follows the "institutional cost line," with restrained and solid pricing, earning money from certainty. Since August, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs has exceeded $2.07 billion, setting a monthly high for 2026 so far, with top institutions like BlackRock entering the market. This capital targets medium- to long-term allocation rather than short-term arbitrage. On the chart, this shows as a typical "bottom position lifting" rise: $76,000-$78,000 is the core cost band for institutional accumulation this round, with each pullback quickly supported; the rapid retreat after breaking $80,000 essentially represents concentrated relief of historical trapped positions between $78,000-$82,000. Institutional funds absorb selling pressure amid fluctuations, steadily raising the market's average holding cost. More importantly, BTC's price does not excessively overdraw rate cut expectations. The market currently prices about a 69% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, and about 60% expectation of a rate cut in Q4. BTC's price basically matches this neutral expectation without prematurely factoring in extreme easing assumptions. This means even if the Jackson Hole meeting turns hawkish, the pullback space is firmly limited by the institutional cost line, providing ample safety margin. On-chain data confirms this: in the past two weeks, over 13,000 BTC have been net withdrawn from exchanges, with whales continuously moving coins to cold storage, shrinking circulating supply and solidifying bottom support from the supply side. ETH's trend, however, follows the "sentiment leverage line," with optimistic and aggressive pricing, earning money from elasticity. The solid fundamental support is undeniable: total staked ETH exceeds 41.89 million, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, a new all-time high, with over one-third of circulating supply locked long-term, sealing off deep downside from the supply side. But supply contraction only supports the price floor and cannot drive this round's over 30% rally—the core driver pushing prices up is the sentiment fermentation fueled by the AI+Crypto narrative and the early overdrawing of rate cut expectations. The funding gap best illustrates the difference in pricing reality: since August, ETH ETF net inflows are only about one-third of BTC's, with over 70% of the increase coming from a single BlackRock product, lacking systemic industry-wide accumulation support. More upward momentum comes from the derivatives market; during this rebound, ETH perpetual contract open interest fluctuated wildly, funding rates once surged to 0.08%, with short-term leveraged funds clustering, amplifying upward elasticity but also overdrawing future gains prematurely. ETH's current price already factors in more optimistic rate cut expectations than BTC. If policy disappoints, sentiment will retreat faster than BTC, and the correction will be more severe. The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium will be the key test for this pricing gap. Under the baseline scenario, new Fed Chair Wash maintains a neutral stance without clear rate cut guidance; BTC will continue to oscillate between $77,000-$81,000, gradually digesting trapped position pressure; ETH will fluctuate widely between $2,400-$2,550, with sentiment-driven trading dominating the pace. In an optimistic scenario, a dovish signal hints at a Q4 rate cut path; BTC is expected to steadily break through $81,000 resistance and push toward $85,000; ETH may pulse higher on sentiment, challenging the $2,650-$2,700 range. In a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance triggers a pullback; BTC has institutional cost line support, likely limiting the correction to within 5%, with strong support at $75,000; ETH may face concentrated leveraged liquidations, with a correction likely exceeding 8%, testing short-term support at $2,380. Overall, BTC earns money from fundamental recovery, with restrained pricing and high safety margin, suitable for medium-term allocation strategies; pullbacks to $77,000-$78,000 can be bought in batches. ETH earns money from sentiment trading, highly elastic but volatile, suitable for swing trading; partial profit-taking above $2,550 is advised without blindly chasing highs. During the policy window, don't make quick money from sentiment and lose the certainty of long-term gains $BTC $ETH $DOGE Starlink BTC 0826 Today's Strategy｜Consolidation with a Bearish Bias Direction: Bearish Entry: 78000–78300 Stop Loss: 77500 Target: 79000–79400, if broken then look at 80000 BTC surged to 81270 last night then pulled back, now consolidating again around 78000. Currently, I still lean bearish, but I don't expect a strong one-sided move during the day; more likely to consolidate first, then choose a direction. So at the current price around 78700, I won't chase; the space above and below this level is uncomfortable. If it returns to 78000–78300, I will consider light bearish positions. If 77500 is broken, this idea is directly invalidated. No need to rush during the day. If you have a position, hold it; if not, wait. Still bearish on BTC, but won't aggressively open positions in the middle range. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 8.26 Crypto Market Planet Daily Good morning, brothers. Yesterday the crypto market finally showed some momentum. BTC surged past $80,000, reaching a high of over 81,000, marking a three-month high. The whole network was cheering “the bull is back,” but after a night, this morning the price retreated back to around 78,500-79,000. Classic "pump and dump." Current positions of major coins (morning of August 26): • BTC: 78,500 – 79,000 range, slight 24h pullback, weekly up about +22% • ETH: 2,440 – 2,460, weekly +28% • SOL: 96 – 98, weekly +26% • XRP: 1.43 – 1.46, still the strongest weekly gain, nearly +47% • BNB: 690 – 700 • HYPE: around 80, relatively resilient Total market cap roughly 2.65-2.7 trillion USD, BTC dominance back near 59%. Core logic behind this rebound: The real spark came from the US Treasury’s announcement last week to double the long-term Treasury buyback quota to $4 billion each time. The market interpreted this as "liquidity warming + USD depreciation hedge trade" restarting. Gold and crypto rose together, shorts were liquidated in a chain reaction, with last week’s short squeeze volume being quite exaggerated. Combined with continuous net inflows into spot BTC ETFs (over $2 billion since August 17), institutional funds are indeed flowing back. Expectations around the Clarity Act legislation and Trump’s stance on crypto also provided emotional support. XRP and SOL led this rally, clearly showing signs of "high elasticity catch-up," especially XRP’s weekly gain close to 50%, a typical capital rotation among groups. What to watch today? The most awkward position is the round number resistance at 80,000. After yesterday’s surge failed to hold above it, today’s high open and low close clearly show profit-taking. Technically, short-term overbought conditions exist (some momentum indicators are already high), plus tonight’s US core PCE and GDP revision data, so the market choosing to wait and see is reasonable. Key supports to watch: • First support: 77,500 – 78,000 • Strong support: 75,000 – 76,000 If BTC can stabilize above 78,000 and break through 80,000 with volume and hold, this rebound will have real continuation potential, targeting 82,000-85,000. If it falls below 77,000 directly, a short-term shakeout may occur again. Personal view (not investment advice): This rebound is of better quality than previous ones: real ETF funds, macro liquidity narrative, forced short covering—not just air. But don’t get carried away by the weekly gains. From 60,000+ to 80,000 in one go is a big jump. What’s needed now is to digest profit-taking and confirm support. True bull market confirmation requires BTC to firmly hold above 80,000 and effectively break previous highs, while altcoins genuinely rotate, not just a few leaders performing. Today’s suggestions: • Those heavily invested can consider trimming positions to lock in profits • Those without positions should not rush to chase highs; wait for pullback and support confirmation • Avoid heavy bets on breakouts; daily volatility around data releases can be significant Keep watching ETF fund flows and macro data reactions. I will update if there are new developments. Stay steady, don’t panic. $BTC & $ETH :IS HISTORY ECHOING AGAIN? In 2022, $BTC fell sharply in June, rallied through summer, then made a final move toward $16K before the cycle bottomed. $ETH followed a similar path. In 2026, $BTC has surged back above $80K, while $ETH has recovered toward $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $2B in weekly inflows, while ETF activity has also strengthened around Ethereum. Is this a genuine cycle bottom—or another powerful relief rally?Good morning, everyone. Over the past week, BTC surged from 64,000 to 81,000, soaring 22-25% in 7 days, marking the strongest weekly performance since 2023. Last night, it hit an intraday high of $81,269, returning to the 80,000 mark after three months. And today? It fell to around $78,700, down 1.2% in a single day. The social circle was filled with cheers saying "The bull market is back," but watching the Fear and Greed Index jump from 41 a week ago to 81—the "extreme greed" range, the first since December 2024—I felt like it deserved cold water. 🧊 The three main drivers behind this surge First, let's clarify how this rally started. Only by understanding the driving force can we judge whether it can continue. First, the U.S. Treasury is signaling a liquidity injection. On August 19, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a doubling of the long-term Treasury repurchase scale from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. Although the money hasn't truly entered the market yet, the market interprets this signal as "the dollar is about to depreciate and scarce assets are rising," with so-called "debasement trades" relaunching, benefiting both BTC and gold. Second, epic short liquidations. When BTC started rising from over $60,000, a wave of short sellers refused to accept it and ended up being brutally squeezed. Over $7 billion worth of short positions were forcibly liquidated in the past week, with $645 million liquidated in just one day, August 25. These forced liquidation buy orders directly pushed prices up, creating a positive feedback loop of self-markup. Third,In the short term, I am bearish on US stocks, especially high-level tech stocks. The reason is quite simple: US Treasury yields still can't be pushed down. Biden has recently started taking action, repurchasing long-term US debt and increasing short-term debt issuance. In plain terms, this means trying to push long-term interest rates down. When the news first came out, it was indeed effective; US Treasury yields dropped quickly, but soon rose back, with the 10-year yield returning to a high level. This indicates one thing: the market is not buying it right now. The US deficit and debt are still present, inflationary pressure remains, and on top of that, AI companies have been aggressively spending and issuing debt over the past two years. Everyone is competing for money in the market, so it's not easy for long-term rates to truly come down. And this is exactly what US stocks fear the most right now. Especially tech stocks, which already have high valuations. As long as long-term rates stay high, valuations will continue to be under pressure. So my current judgment on US stocks is simple: Bearish in the short term, no rush to chase highs. Only when the 10-year US Treasury yield truly moves down continuously will I consider reversing this view. For now, rather than guessing every day when the Fed will cut rates, it's better to just watch the Treasury market. If the bond market doesn't ease, it's very difficult for US stocks to comfortably continue moving upward #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ "Bitmine's New Address Sweeps 20,000 ETH in 50 Minutes_Why They Hold Firm at the 2500 Threshold Despite a Floating Loss of 5.27 Billion" A newly created on-chain address 0xAef...Dc00B swept up 20,000 Ethereum within 50 minutes, with a total daily accumulation reaching 73.61 million USD, all pointing to the largest holder Bitmine behind the scenes. Bitmine's average holding cost is locked at 3359 USD, with an unrealized loss on the books as high as 5.27 billion USD. Their total holdings have reached 5.8476 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of the entire network, just about 200,000 ETH short of the 5% governance power threshold. 87% of their spot holdings are locked in the MAVAN staking network, using annualized node yields to hedge bond interest, and leveraging the premium from the Russell 1000 in the US stock market to issue additional shares for USD to buy more coins. These two massive capital forces clash hard at the 2500 USD dividing line, making the battle for circulating supply increasingly intense. $ETH BTC spot premium has just turned positive. But note, today's market is a pullback; this premium increase is driven by a large number of short positions opening on the futures side, not by spot funds aggressively buying. Following this logic, tomorrow morning's ETF data will likely not continue to show high inflows and may see a significant decline. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC $ETH Don't take the premium turning positive as a straightforward bullish signal; you need to understand where the funds are actually coming from. ⚠️Data commentary only, not investment advice 📊 $DOGE Contract Liquidation Express (August 26) After a short-term extreme crushing by the bears, the bulls violently reversed but momentum collapsed. The 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeded $6.98 million, with a concentration of 54.6%…… Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $772.55 $23.52 $749.03 4 hours $179,700 $75,800 $104,000 12 hours $3,814,500 $3,542,600 $271,900 24 hours $6,986,200 $6,093,900 $892,200 In 1 hour, bears dominated with 31.8x leverage controlling the market, but the volume was only $749, an invalid scale; in 4 hours, bears dropped sharply to 1.37x, nearly balanced with bulls; in 12 hours, bulls violently reversed with 13x leverage, volume soaring to $3.5426 million; in 24 hours, bulls collapsed to 6.83x, with $6.0939 million liquidated against bears' $892,200, totaling $6.9862 million. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 54.6% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. Bull leverage fell from 13x to 6.83x, showing significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction is bullish, the strength has greatly weakened, so avoid blindly chasing longs. 🔥 Market Indicator | August 26 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company choosing to stay put amid a surge. ₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Bears' $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability in Doubt During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024. The core catalyst for this rally comes from macro factors. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering a dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold. Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Bears suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows that last week, approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated. However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, sustained spot demand must replace forced buying. 🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing Day" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "Economic Normandy Landing Day" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list. Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the related processes." After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing concerns. 🏦 Strategy Holds Steady: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What? The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385. During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account. Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at the current price will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin's short-term trend. 💎 Summary Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature raises doubts about sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, with a noteworthy allocation rhythm. DOGE contract longs collapsed from 13x to 6.83x leverage, with cumulative liquidation of $6.98 million and a concentration of 54.6%, showing significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ $DOGE has already given back nearly one-third of its gains. Among mainstream coins, its decline is the largest. After such a big drop, some people might want to go long. However, personally, I don't think this coin is really worth going long. This is partly due to the project's own reasons and also the contract data of this coin. Let's look at it step by step. —————————————————— The biggest drawback of this project is that it issues 5 billion tokens annually. At the current market price, that's equivalent to an extra $400 million to $500 million in selling each year. This is not good for its price. Some people say, $ETH will issue additional tokens, so why don't I mention this when discussing $ETH prices? Because the situations facing these two token issuances are completely different. $ETH has many practical applications, and it can also be staking, so the tokens issued end up back in the hands of holders. $DOGE, on the other hand, is different; the tokens it issues are for miners. In other words, it dilutes the value of tokens held by holders out of thin air. This is the first reason I'm bearish on it. Because there will be a continuous stream of selling. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that its contract open interest has been rising during today's decline, but the corresponding contract long-short ratio doesn't always increase; the ratio fluctuates. This means #宇树上市后连续回落，估值如何定价？ Latest Data After Yushu Technology's IPO, the stock has continuously pulled back, retreating over 45% from its peak, with a market value evaporation exceeding 200 billion. The current price-to-earnings ratio remains high, far above the industry average. The humanoid robot sector's scarcity premium is overleveraging future growth expectations. Market Consensus The earlier speculative bubble has cleared, market divergence has increased, and investors are waiting for earnings to justify the valuation. Underlying Logic Analysis On the first day of listing, speculative capital drove the valuation up sharply, and the small float exacerbated volatility; the current market value is still significantly higher than the reasonable range of 100-150 billion given by institutions. The pace of commercialization and earnings growth are the core factors for pricing. In the short term, as sentiment cools, valuation returning to fundamentals is the major trend. Personal Viewpoint (for reference only, not investment advice) This is a phase of digesting a high-level bubble, and blind bottom-fishing is not advisable. Reasonable valuation should be tied to future revenue growth, and value allocation should be reassessed after earnings are realized. 5 billion USD flows from private wallets into BlackRock's IBIT — self-custody trust is collapsing --- 📊 1. Event Overview: Threshold lowered from 25 million to 1 million, 5 billion USD floods in On August 26, ETF Store President Nate Geraci revealed that BlackRock has significantly lowered the minimum private physical subscription threshold for its Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT from 25 million USD to 1 million USD. Since the threshold adjustment in July, over 5 billion USD worth of Bitcoin has been transferred from private wallets into IBIT. BlackRock Digital Assets head Robbie Mitchnick confirmed this adjustment. What does "physical subscription" mean? Bitcoin holders can directly hand over BTC to BlackRock in exchange for an equivalent amount of IBIT ETF shares. This is not buying the ETF with cash, but swapping Bitcoin for ETF shares — a more direct and efficient asset conversion channel. 🔥 2. Core Drivers: Kidnappings, extortion, and custody incidents are forcing "surrenders" Geraci clearly pointed out that the main driver behind this shift is security fear: 1. Physical security threats Recent cases of French couples being kidnapped and forced to hand over Bitcoin — when attackers target holders directly, cold wallets offer no protection. 2. Self-custody technical risks Coldcard firmware vulnerabilities affected over 4,585 addresses, resulting in nearly 90 million USD in Bitcoin theft; BTCPay Server LND node credential leaks emptied Lightning node funds; TLBL whale private key leak wiped out 26 million USD overnight. 3. Regulatory and inheritance uncertainties Complex issues like private key inheritance, tax reporting, and cross-border transfers are causing more holders to "surrender" — entrusting assets to professional custodians. 📈 3. What does 5 billion USD mean? 1. Institutional "trust shift" is accelerating 5 billion USD moving from self-custody wallets to IBIT indicates a significant number of early Bitcoin holders are abandoning the belief "not your keys, not your coins." This capital is not new inflow but existing Bitcoin moving from on-chain to ETF custody systems. 2. BlackRock's "threshold lowering" strategy hits the mark Lowering the threshold from 25 million to 1 million USD expands physical subscriptions from "super whale exclusive" to accessible by "mid-sized institutions/high-net-worth individuals." A 96% threshold reduction opens previously excluded capital channels. 3. Self-custody is being outpaced by the "security premium" As risks like private key leaks, hardware vulnerabilities, and physical kidnappings accumulate, BlackRock's institutional-grade custody (Coinbase Custody) begins to show a "security premium." Holders trade direct control for dual guarantees of physical and technical security. 💎 4. Summary: The 5 billion USD "surrender" marks a turning point for self-custody belief The 5 billion USD flowing from private wallets into IBIT is an undeniable turning point. As Coldcard vulnerabilities, BTCPay Server attacks, and French kidnappings occur intensively in a short time, the "security" of self-custody is being systematically dismantled. BlackRock lowered the threshold from 25 million to 1 million, precisely seizing this window. Those who once firmly believed "not your keys, not your coins" are voting with their feet — handing private keys to BlackRock and entrusting security to professional institutions. When 5 billion USD worth of Bitcoin flows from on-chain to ETFs, the signal is crystal clear: the faith in self-custody is being shattered by reality. And BlackRock is becoming the biggest winner of this "trust shift." $BTC The whole market is red, except for $OKB which is glaringly green: -3.14%, current price 113.70, market cap 2.39 billion USD. Others rise while it falls, why? Breaking down into three logics: 1. The "buyback narrative" of platform tokens is marginally diminishing. OKB used to rely on OKX buyback and burn + fee dividends to support its valuation, but Binance and Bybit's platform tokens are competing for the existing supply, diluting OKB's exclusive benefits. From the ATH of 257 to now, it has more than halved, shaking the faith holders. 2. Highly concentrated circulating supply. Almost all of the total 21 million tokens are in circulation, with no lock-up or gradual release. Once large holders reduce their positions, it becomes pure selling pressure. Today's bearish candle volume is 35.47 million USD, not small, clearly active selling. 3. Lack of new stories in the ecosystem narrative. BTC and ETH have ETF and institutional narratives, SOL and HYPE have on-chain activity, but OKB recently lacks strong new catalysts, so funds naturally vote with their feet. On the other hand, OKB's valuation discount relative to BNB is already large, with a very low PS at the 113 level. If OKX does a buyback boost or launches something new on-chain, the upside is not bad. Don't rush to bottom-fish counter-trend assets; wait for daily stabilization and volume-driven stop of decline. Right now, it's just an "outlier," not yet an "opportunity." I've been playing with crypto for almost three years. Now, I even put the app on the innermost page of my phone to add a bit of hassle to opening it. I used to always want to turn things around with it, but now I feel like just not being dragged down by it is already a win. I've tried all kinds of strategies: chasing highs and cutting losses, grid trading, even wrote a few simple quant scripts, but none outperformed just holding steadily. Later, I only did one thing: every payday, I transfer a fixed amount in, buy, then close the app. At first, I bought $BTC when it was still under twenty thousand. I held for over a year, even when it dropped to fourteen thousand, I didn't move. Not because I was technically savvy, purely because I was lazy, and that money was spare cash—losing it wouldn't leave me starving. Then I added some $ETH, with a position only a third of my BTC, because I thought it was more volatile but also riskier. Later, I bought some $SOL after listening to a few developer podcasts; I found its tech path interesting and wanted to support it. For these three, I do monthly dollar-cost averaging in rotation, with the same amount regardless of price. After two years, I found the dumbest method actually works best because it doesn't require thinking and keeps emotions out. The biggest temptation was seeing others flaunt 100x gains on random coins; I was tempted too, but every time I wanted to jump in, I checked my holdings. A glance at $BTC's monthly chart, then $ETH's weekly chart, calmed me down, and I just did what I was supposed to. I set a simple, dumb rule for myself: sell a little every time it rises 20%, about 5% of the total. I don't put the cash back in; I convert it to physical things, like a better keyboard or treating friends to a meal. This way, my holding cost gradually decreases, and each sale brings real joy, much better than just watching unrealized gains. If it drops 20%, I add a little, but not more than half of that month's DCA amount. With just these two simple actions, my account slowly turned positive. Gains aren't big, but they're stable. Now, what I fear most isn't losing money, but greed. Greed breaks the rhythm, and breaking rhythm leads to mistakes. I've seen too many people lose their base holdings trying to catch one more wave, never recovering. So now I write my DCA and position adjustment rules on paper, stick it by my computer, and check before every trade. If the action doesn't match the rules on paper, I don't move, even if I miss a market move, no regrets. Because I know in this market, missing out won't kill you, but making a wrong move might. Now I watch the market no more than ten minutes a day, set price alerts, and spend the rest of the time reading picture books with my kids. Sometimes my kids ask why I smile at my phone, and I say it's because I can buy you an extra toy today. That feeling satisfies me more than having extra zeros in my account. I may never become a big shot, but at least I won't let crypto make my life chaotic. This road is long; I plan to keep rolling slowly, no greed, no rush, just as much as I can. Finally, I want to tell myself: don't forget why you started this—not to prove how smart you are, but to add more possibilities to life. And possibilities come from patience, not from quick hands. That's enough. My mindset is great now: when it rises, I treat myself to a chicken leg; when it falls, I go for a run—no losses either way. This is all the experience I've gained in three years, no deep theories, just two words: don't overthink. That's enough. #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Yesterday, $BTC peaked at $81,000, then retreated to around $78,700 today. At first glance, it looks like a spike followed by a pullback, but looking at the market broadly, BTC still gained nearly 2% in a day, and SOL, HYPE, and OKB didn't fall; instead, ETH, XRP, and DOGE were the first to show weakness. This is no longer a market where everyone jumps on together; capital is starting to pick seats. A few days ago, whenever BTC pulled up, buying any major altcoin would get you some gains. Today is different: BTC remains high, but ETH is stuck around $2,460, and DOGE and XRP haven't caught the capital flow. At least for now, "BTC breaking $80,000" and "altcoin season arriving" are still two separate things. Without ETH taking the lead, altcoins are unlikely to truly take off. On the other hand, SOL holding near $97, HYPE around $80, and OKB above $114—this kind of strength deserves more attention. Rapid gains aren't surprising; the fact that BTC didn't want to drop when pulling back from $81,000 shows that the capital inside isn't in a hurry to leave. Tonight at 8:30 PM, there will be PCE and the revised US Q2 GDP data. The data is important, but guessing the decimal points isn't very meaningful; what's more worth watching is how the market responds. If the data is hawkish, and BTC gets hit but still holds $77,500–$78,000, and the strong coins today don't break their lows, then the foundation of this rally is stronger than the news headlines. Conversely, if the data is clearly favorable but BTC can't even reclaim $80,000, then we have to admit: the recent spike was driven by short-term buying.【Zoom FY2027 Q2 Earnings Report】At a glance: Revenue of $1.28 billion, enterprise revenue up 7.8%, full-year guidance raised $ZM Q2's key highlight is the enterprise revenue growth returning to a near three-year high and the upward revision of full-year guidance; however, GAAP net profit is mainly driven by strategic investment gains. The real focus remains on tracking enterprise customer expansion and whether AI products can deliver sustained revenue. #Zoom#ZM#USStockEarnings#EnterpriseSoftware#AIApplications Let's talk about trading again: What exactly is the market trading? And where was my mistake some time ago? Many bloggers say that the 40 trillion is too large, causing the US debt crisis, the US dollar is unreliable, and BTC is a safe haven. It seems reasonable, but upon closer thought, many things deserve scrutiny. The 40 trillion US debt was not formed last week; it accumulated gradually, so it definitely isn't the reason for the sudden rise in US debt yields. The "sudden" here refers to the steep rise in US debt yields last week, indicating that the market had concentrated selling of US debt. At this time, Wash said: the rise in US debt yields is equivalent to an interest rate hike. Logically, Wash should intervene, not Bassett. The Treasury has no plan to buy US debt to save the yen. Historically, when have they ever managed the yen? The market worries that even the US debt held by the Fed can affect the fundamentals of US debt. Against this backdrop, when he goes to repurchase, the market will bet: Wash, this weakling, does not take a stand and avoids responsibility, so Bassett has no way to rescue. If they can save once, there will be a second time. Now funds are limited; continuing to save means flooding the market. The dollar is no longer reliable, so those opposing the dollar buy gold. (This is my basic logic for trading gold) When shorting BTC, I treat BTC more like a tech stock, and historically, BTC rarely has such large gains in a single day. Therefore, the community keeps emphasizing not to take profits on gold. Although gold $XAU has weakened a bit, the logic is clear, and not losing is good enough. #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ After $BTC surged, the market has entered a critical waiting period Recently, many people's hearts have been on a roller coaster watching this Bitcoin rally. A few days ago, it surged all the way above 81,000. This big rally was largely driven by shorts being forced out through a chain of liquidations, with a large number of short positions stopped out and closed, which in turn pushed the price upward. However, after the surge, it didn't hold steady. Starting today, a pullback appeared, dropping back below the 80,000 level and oscillating. You can clearly feel that the short squeeze momentum has largely dissipated. The Fear and Greed Index has reached the extreme greed zone, and short-term indicators have entered overbought territory. Many short-term profit takers are choosing to lock in gains, naturally bringing selling pressure. Now the market is holding its breath, quietly waiting for the Jackson Hole speech. This is the biggest variable ahead. The Federal Reserve Chair's remarks will directly affect the US dollar and overall risk asset sentiment. If the speech is dovish, there is a chance for another rally; if the tone is hawkish, this rebound could easily face a deep correction. Currently, the market is in a high volatility phase, with intense tug-of-war up and down. Previously, the rise was fueled by short squeezes, but now the short position ammunition is nearly exhausted. To continue upward, new real money needs to enter and take over. If you have positions, be sure to set your protection levels properly to avoid giving back all your unrealized gains. For those not yet in, do not get caught up in the heat and chase the highs; now is not a good time to blindly rush in. Leverage especially requires extra caution, as news events can cause sudden spikes and stop hunts, easily washing you out if you're not careful.Unrealized loss of $5.27 billion but still buying — Bitmine might be the most "hard-headed" ETH whale in the crypto world --- 💰 1. Full Position Overview: 5.84 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of total network supply As of August 26, Bitmine holds a total of 5.8476 million ETH, valued at approximately $14.4 billion, representing 4.8% of Ethereum's total supply. This is one of the largest enterprise-level ETH holdings globally, even surpassing the digital asset reserves of most national central banks. The average holding cost is about $3,359 per ETH. Based on the then ETH price of around $2,463, the book unrealized loss is approximately $5.27 billion. Just a week ago, Bitmine's unrealized loss was as high as $8.5 billion. With ETH rebounding from below $2,000 to above $2,400, the loss narrowed by about $3.4 billion in one week. Even more crazily, Bitmine is still buying. On August 26, on-chain analysts detected a new address 0xAef...Dc00B accumulating 20,000 ETH within 50 minutes, worth $48.89 million, suspected to be operated by Bitmine. These newly purchased ETH, calculated at the current price, have not yet been included in the $5.27 billion unrealized loss — once included, the loss figure will expand. 🏦 2. Who is Bitmine? — A Nasdaq-listed "Ethereum Treasury Company" Bitmine's full name is Bitmine Immersion Technologies (NASDAQ: BMNR), a Nasdaq-listed Ethereum treasury company. Its business model is identical to Strategy (MSTR): raising capital through the capital markets and converting funds into crypto asset reserves. But the biggest difference is — Strategy bets on Bitcoin, while Bitmine chooses to go all-in on Ethereum. Asset structure (as of August 23): · ETH: 5.8476 million (about $14.4 billion) · Staked ETH: 5.067 million, about 87% of holdings, with annual staking income of approximately $330 million · BTC: 210 coins (about $16.6 million) · Cash and marketable securities: $308 million · Equity in Beast Industries: $180 million · Equity in Eightco Holdings: $89 million Total assets are about $14.9 billion. Essentially, Bitmine is an "Ethereum leveraged fund" that continuously buys ETH with raised funds and stakes it to generate yield. 📉 3. Why keep buying despite a $5.27 billion unrealized loss? — The "buy the dip" faith logic Bitmine's operational logic is similar to that of "Brother Maji" — if the direction is right, leverage is a profit amplifier; if wrong, it accelerates destruction. The difference is that Brother Maji uses high-leverage contracts, while Bitmine uses equity financing + spot holdings + staking yield in a structured strategy. Staking income is an important "safety cushion." The 5.067 million staked ETH generate about $330 million in annual staking income. Even if ETH price doesn't rise, Bitmine can still obtain stable cash flow annually through staking. If ETH price returns to the $3,359 cost basis, Bitmine will recover the entire $5.27 billion unrealized loss and gain over $330 million in annual staking income for years to come. This is essentially a "call option." 10x Research pointed out that Bitmine's holding structure is equivalent to a free call option — bearing unrealized losses when prices fall, and enjoying dual returns from ETH price recovery and staking income when prices rise. ⚔️ 4. Market Impact: The "floating anchor" of 5.84 million ETH 5.84 million ETH accounts for 4.8% of total network supply, making it one of the largest single institutional holdings in the market. If ETH continues to rise: unrealized losses narrow → market confidence strengthens → Bitmine may continue to increase holdings → forming a positive feedback loop. If ETH drops sharply: Bitmine faces margin calls or forced selling risks — if 5.84 million ETH flood the market, it would cause a huge shock to ETH prices. The 5.067 million staked ETH are "locked" and will not create selling pressure in the short term. This provides psychological support to the market — at least 87% of holdings won't be sold in panic. 💎 5. Summary Bitmine has constructed one of the most extreme "Ethereum gambles" in the crypto world with 5.84 million ETH, $5.27 billion unrealized loss, and $330 million annual staking income. It forms an interesting contrast with Strategy: Strategy has a $2.5 billion unrealized gain on Bitcoin, while Bitmine has a $5.27 billion unrealized loss on Ethereum — same strategy, different cycles, completely different outcomes. Bitmine's choice is: as long as staking income continues and Ethereum's long-term narrative remains unchanged, it will keep holding and buying. This may be faith or a necessity trapped in unrealized losses. Regardless, the 5.84 million ETH holding has become one of the most unignorable "floating anchors" in the Ethereum market. $xSTRC $MSTR $ETH Day 136 of live trading, last night I opened a long position on $MRNA, planning to take a small bite and maintain the emotional momentum. Still bullish for now, because $MRNA's market cap is clearly small. It's not impossible for it to become a giant due to this drug, but it's very difficult, since this drug doesn't have the massive global sales like $LLY. It's too expensive, unaffordable for ordinary people, and requires customization. Going long in the short term.Post-fake breakout market battle: Bull trap confirmed, market enters cooling and re-accumulation phase This fake breakout at $81,000 is a textbook example of a "liquidity hunt." Looking at the market details, after the short squeeze completed, the perpetual contract funding rate surged rapidly, indicating overheated market sentiment, but spot trading volume did not increase correspondingly. This is a typical scenario where "after the shorts run out of fuel, the bulls' leverage turns into the main selling pressure." The price quickly fell back to $78,000, meaning a large number of long positions chasing the high were trapped above $80,000, and these positions will become heavy resistance in the short term. In terms of capital flow, Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC.D) showed a significant decline, with funds indeed flowing into ETH and some public chain altcoins, but this diversion is not a bull market expansion; it is more of a price ratio correction. Off-exchange stablecoin inflows remain weak. The daily RSI has fallen back from the overbought zone, the MACD bullish momentum bars have shortened, and the risk of a high-level death cross has increased. The market needs time to digest this long upper shadow. For subsequent developments, $78,000 becomes the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If multiple retests hold without breaking, this level may form a new consolidation platform, using time to create space to absorb the trapped longs above; once a volume-driven break below occurs, it could trigger a bull stampede, quickly testing the stronger support zone at $76,000–$76,500. In terms of strategy, tightening the battle lines and strictly controlling costs are key. Spot positions below $78,000 can be taken with small size on the left side of the dip, but reserve enough ammunition to wait for a possible deeper pullback #BTC breakout above $80,000 The annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference has arrived as scheduled. As a barometer for Wall Street and the global financial circle, the underlying signals from this meeting are highly thought-provoking. Unlike the usual policy meetings that are guided by short-term economic data, central bank governors prefer to quietly set the tone for medium- and long-term policy frameworks in this informal, closed-door setting. Historically, whether launching quantitative easing or setting aggressive inflation targets, many far-reaching monetary turning points have been triggered from this point. What is most noteworthy this time is that, for the first time in the conference's history, "digital payments, fintech, and crypto/stablecoin infrastructure" was placed at the core of the agenda. This is a highly symbolic signal. Stablecoins have long ceased to be micro-settlement tools within the crypto market; they are evolving into "quasi-shadow banks" holding massive amounts of U.S. debt. When global central banks begin to sit down and seriously discuss the new boundaries between the "post-fiat era" and central bank balance sheets, you can understand why funds have recently diverted wildly—gold has risen steadily, but BTC, as a digital asset, is moving much faster in terms of absorbing liquidity. On the other hand, fluctuations in global bond yields and changes in central bank communication styles are sending the same signal: the era of central banks hand-in-hand "feeding" the market and covertly covering asset volatility is ending. Whether it's reassessing long-term neutral rates or facing over $350 trillion in global government debt, policymakers are trying to force markets to relearn self-pricing and risk-taking.Supplement: Another new address 0xceB...e66ea hoarded 10,000 ETH 10 hours ago, worth 24.72 million USD, and it is also likely to belong to Bitmine Wallet address 0x04B9eDD55d250E755071B0081aD5a299a886B6c1 Because their regular operation for building $ETH positions is: new address + large integer amount transfer Ethereum (ETH) Ethereum is currently positioned relatively low; it is recommended to consider going long when it retraces to around 2,400, with a take profit set at 2,500 and a stop loss at 2,300. This way, the risk-reward ratio is clear, and you just need to follow the discipline. In terms of news, Ethereum recently surged alongside Bitcoin to 2,530 USD, marking a new high since February this year; the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about 697 million USD last week, also setting a new weekly high for the year. Additionally, treasury company BitMine recently increased its holdings by over 32,000 ETH, bringing its total holdings to more than 5.84 million ETH, accounting for about 4.8% of the total ETH supply on the network, with the staking scale surpassing 12.4 billion USD.$UNITREE has fallen from a high of 1100 yuan to 602.8 yuan, a drop of 45%, with early concentrated chips cashing out and high valuation corrections continuously tugging on the market. Currently, the market value of 243.8 billion yuan is still about four times the issue price of 150.8 yuan. The chip premium brought by the very small circulation at the initial listing quickly faded after the new share funds exited. The founder has extended the large-scale landing cycle expectation to 2 to 10 years. Coupled with current revenue relying on scientific research procurement and increasing revenue without increasing profit, the long-term narrative has lost the support of short-term performance. The turnover of high-level profit-taking and the real lack of industrial scene orders have combined to create the current pricing downward adjustment channel. If large industrial orders are realized early and drive repurchase rates to rise, proving that robots have a clear payback cycle advantage, the valuation squeeze will end ahead of schedule; if industrial delivery falls short of expectations, attempts at market rebound will quickly collapse. If the growth rate of scientific research procurement slows and the market's cash-out selling pressure continues to release, the valuation will converge toward a performance center lacking industrial support; if speculative funds intervene and cluster during this period, the downward channel may experience a brief interruption. Whether the product can complete the rigid test of stable operation for thousands of hours in a real industrial site determines whether the current chip pricing will shift to fundamental support or continue to fall seeking a bottom. The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are the progress of industrial procurement orders landing and the turnover rhythm of high-level sedimented chips. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？#Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be realized? The boss has something to say Anthropic threw out a number: $30 trillion. This is the total addressable market (TAM) it plans to tell investors in its IPO documents. What does that mean? The combined revenue of 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 last year was only $2.4 trillion, and Anthropic says this market is more than 12 times that. When SpaceX went public, it cited $28.5 trillion, already called "the largest TAM in human history." Anthropic directly surpasses that. How the number was calculated When quantifying TAM, Anthropic included all the work AI models can accomplish. Simply put, it assumes AI can do all cognitive work, theoretically capturing the entire knowledge work market. But take this number with a grain of salt. TAM is the theoretical maximum revenue assuming 100% market share. Uber said its TAM was $6 trillion at its 2019 IPO, WeWork said $3 trillion. We all know what happened afterward. $200 billion revenue in 2028 is the real bet More worth watching than the $30 trillion TAM is the 2028 revenue forecast. Anthropic internally expects to reach $190 to $200 billion by 2028. Annualized revenue was only $47 billion in May this year, and reached $65 billion by the end of July. At $200 billion, that's a fourfold increase in four years. If this growth rate is realized, a $2 trillion valuation is supported. If not, the story collapses. Raising $100 billion, valuation at $2 trillion The IPO fundraising target is up to $100 billion, exceeding SpaceX's $86 billion. The valuation is anchored around $2 trillion. The underwriting syndicate includes Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi. The listing could happen as early as September or early October. Impact on the crypto market This is somewhat bearish. Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI are all absorbing liquidity simultaneously, continuously drawing incremental funds away from the crypto market. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 80,000, related to this backdrop. But from another perspective, if Anthropic successfully lists at $2 trillion, it will further confirm the capital value of the AI sector, which is not bad for the crypto infrastructure layer in the long term. $BTC $ETH $SOL All long Bitcoin positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback. Do not heavily bet on direction before PCE and Walsh's speeches. Maintain a base position in SPCX, wait for adjustments in storage and others before making moves. The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.August 26｜HYPE: The Heat Returns, First See Who Bears the Risk HYPE is back at the center of market discussion today. When the market heats up, it's easy to focus only on the price, but what’s more important to understand about Hyperliquid is that it integrates trade execution, market deployment, and risk responsibility into a single set of on-chain rules. HIP-3 allows builders to deploy independent perpetual contract markets, but it’s not "just deploy whenever you want." Official documentation requires mainnet deployers to stake 500,000 HYPE and be responsible for defining the market, setting oracles, leverage caps, and settlement when necessary. If operations compromise protocol correctness or performance, validators can vote weighted by stake to enforce penalties. Another easily overlooked boundary is that the oracles for HIP-3 markets are managed by the deployers. The underlying liquidity, price source reliability, and private key security all affect actual risk. The staking threshold and penalty mechanism raise the cost of misconduct but do not eliminate price volatility, leverage losses, or contract design flaws. So what really needs to be distinguished today is not whether the hype can continue, but whether each market’s deployer, oracle, and risk parameters can withstand scrutiny. The protocol provides a chain of responsibility, but users must still be accountable for the products and leverage they use. $HYPE #HYPE For informational purposes only, not investment advice.The core contradiction in the current market is: sentiment has reached "extreme greed," but fundamental validation is not yet complete. The Fear and Greed Index was 36 (fear) a month ago, and now it has surged to 81 (extreme greed). This is the only time on record that the index has jumped directly from "extreme fear" to "extreme greed," rising 45 points in 30 days, almost erasing all the cautious sentiment accumulated in the first half of 2026. History tells us: extreme greed itself is not a sell signal, but it is a signal that requires high vigilance. Bitcoin is at a critical juncture between bull and bear markets, with $83,000 as the watershed. Ethereum shows a clear follow-up trend and awaits the return of an independent narrative. Solana’s divergence between fundamentals and price has created the largest expectation gap, but it also means the greatest volatility risk. Stay clear-headed amid extreme greed, and when others are frenzied, ask one more question: "What’s next?" — this may be the only rule to survive longer in this market. $BTC $ETH $SOL Fundamental Research Report $GMX / GMX (DeFi) $3.20 Summary: GMX ($GMX) overall score 50/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized. Project Overview: GMX (token $GMX), DeFi sector. Focuses on Arbitrum perpetual DEX. Competitors include DYDX, SNX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, with no user data ownership. On-chain trustless trading fees are lower, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, evidence of paid usage exists. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days. User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo wall grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment. Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: GMX $3.00B, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. FDV: GMX $4.20B, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Annual revenue: GMX $2.00M, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: GMX undisclosed, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients joining, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 50/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlock sell-offs, protocol income long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires reassessment. Fundamentals analyzed, market direction is another matter. #FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit [Daily Market Analysis] Apple uses Changxin memory, gold stagnates amid rate hike concerns, sanctions on Iran cause oil prices to fall instead of rise $SNDK SanDisk plunged from 1600 to a low of 1418, then made a V-shaped rebound. Many thought it was dragged down by the broader BTC ETH market, but the real reason lies elsewhere. According to news, Apple is testing Chinese Changxin's DRAM and Yangtze Memory's NAND, intending to use them in devices sold to the Chinese market. This is a concrete negative for SNDK, as its market share in China will be taken away, causing capital to panic and flee. Additionally, ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, the AI hardware sector collectively took profits, and SNDK repeatedly closed below its 50-day moving average. Both technical and fundamental factors hit, leading to last night's 12% plunge. It has now rebounded to around 1470, but faces heavy resistance above; 1600 has become a ceiling. The only support below is at 1400. If Apple officially announces using domestic memory someday, SNDK could drop to 1300 or even lower. $XAU fell due to Federal Reserve rate hike concerns and a stronger dollar. $CL fell because Iran and Oman discussed resuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil supply concerns. #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #苹果测试长鑫存储芯片并展开初步供货谈判 #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be realized? The boss has something to say Anthropic threw out a number: $30 trillion. This is the total addressable market (TAM) it plans to tell investors in its IPO documents. What does that mean? The combined revenue of 191 tech companies in the S&P 1500 last year was only $2.4 trillion, and Anthropic says this market is more than 12 times that. When SpaceX went public, it cited $28.5 trillion, already called "the largest TAM in human history." Anthropic directly surpasses that. How the number was calculated When quantifying TAM, Anthropic included all the work AI models can accomplish. Simply put, it assumes AI can do all cognitive work, theoretically capturing the entire knowledge work market. But take this number with a grain of salt. TAM is the theoretical maximum revenue assuming 100% market share. Uber said its TAM was $6 trillion at its 2019 IPO, WeWork said $3 trillion. We all know what happened afterward. $200 billion revenue in 2028 is the real bet More worth watching than the $30 trillion TAM is the 2028 revenue forecast. Anthropic internally expects to reach $190 to $200 billion by 2028. Annualized revenue was only $47 billion in May this year, and reached $65 billion by the end of July. At $200 billion, that's a fourfold increase in four years. If this growth rate is realized, a $2 trillion valuation is supported. If not, the story collapses. Raising $100 billion, valuation at $2 trillion The IPO fundraising target is up to $100 billion, exceeding SpaceX's $86 billion. The valuation is anchored around $2 trillion. The underwriting syndicate includes Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi. The listing could happen as early as September or early October. Impact on the crypto market This is somewhat bearish. Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI are all absorbing liquidity simultaneously, continuously drawing incremental funds away from the crypto market. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 80,000, related to this backdrop. But from another perspective, if Anthropic successfully lists at $2 trillion, it will further confirm the capital value of the AI sector, which is not bad for the crypto infrastructure layer in the long term. $BTC $ETH $SOL All long Bitcoin positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback. Do not heavily bet on direction before PCE and Walsh's speeches. Maintain a base position in SPCX, wait for adjustments in storage and others before making moves. The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.Since we identified July 1st as the phase low at the end of June, BTC has surged over 40%! The major market turning point is getting closer and closer. What should be the next move? As shown in Figure 1, in the article on August 22nd, I clearly stated that $BTC's rise would not stop at 79,500, and today we saw a new high at 81,272. After reaching 81,272, it quickly pulled back. The green Gann angle line 3/1 (80,100) is the nearest resistance level currently. If in the next two days we see BTC's daily candle hold above this level, it indicates the uptrend still has momentum and may soon test the next resistance at 82,000 or even the core resistance of this rally around 84,000. This means the timing of the high could come earlier. If it fails to hold above, a correction will begin, at least a pullback targeting the blue segment rise shown in Figure 2. The 74,000 level is a critical watershed; breaking below it could expand the correction to target the entire red segment's overall rise. Today is already August 25th, and every day, every hour, is pushing closer to our high observation time, with the rebound structure starting from 57,800 nearing completion. For the bulls, the only favorable scenario is a continued rapid rally. Otherwise, whether it's a correction of the blue segment, an expanded correction, or sideways consolidation, all are unfavorable for the bulls. Because this increases the probability that the rebound from 57,800 is a correction of the 98,000–57,800 decline. As mentioned last week, under this path, there might still be a low point in Q4.Currently, the sentiment for BTC and ETH in the crypto space is clearly better. There is only one indicator: The storage stocks like SNDK and Hynix lead, forming a strong seesaw effect with ETH and BTC in the crypto space. Now, while ETH is no longer rising and is consolidating, the storage stock SNDK has actually fallen below 1500 without a strong rebound. After nearly half a year of horizontal comparison, this is also my basic approach when switching between stocks or crypto. For now, this seesaw effect is about to fail.Ethereum: The strongest rebound, but the deepest concerns Ethereum led the three major cryptocurrencies with a weekly gain of 30%, climbing back above $2,500. Analysts point out that ETH rebounded after finding support around $1,500, with its current fair value range between $2,300 and $2,400. However, Ethereum's situation is the most delicate. On one hand, it has the largest rebound, indicating the strongest resilience; on the other hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains near the historical low of 0.031, showing that Ethereum is still "following the rise" rather than "leading the rise" in this market cycle. Bitcoin's dominance has once risen to 61%, close to the yearly high—funds prioritize Bitcoin, while Ethereum and altcoins only benefit passively. Technically, Ethereum faces short-term resistance between $2,550 and $2,600. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that for ETH to open up a larger upside, it must break through the main resistance zone of $2,722 to $2,970. Ethereum's narrative logic (DeFi, ETF inflows, ecosystem recovery) has not been substantially strengthened in this rally. Its rise is more a result of Bitcoin's spillover effect. If Bitcoin is blocked at $83,000, Ethereum's correction could be larger than Bitcoin's. Conversely, if Bitcoin confirms a breakout, Ethereum is expected to catch up to the $2,800–$3,000 range. $BTC $ETH The horn of a bull market, or a trap of sentiment? CryptoQuant's Bull Score index surged from 30 to 80 within a week, with 8 out of 10 indicators showing bullish signals. The founder of the institution, Ki Young Ju, publicly stated that Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a bull market, and the current trend is consistent with the market before the last bull market started. But my judgment is: the bull market signal is on, but $83,000 is the real "touchstone." CryptoQuant clearly pointed out that a weekly close above the 365-day moving average (currently about $83,000) is required to officially confirm a new bull market. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger also emphasized that the next important level is the May 2026 high of $82,820. The current risks should not be ignored either: - Traders' unrealized profit rate reaches 20.5%, the highest since June 2025 - Bitcoin exchange inflows rise to about 53,000 coins, the highest since June Bitcoin is transitioning from an "oversold rebound" to a "trend reversal," but the transition period is often the most fragile stage. Once $83,000 is effectively broken through, the upside space will open to $87,000 or even $100,000; if it is resisted and falls back, a short-term retest of the $72,000-$75,000 range is possible. For the rest of August, the policy signals from the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting will be the biggest variable. 📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 26) Bulls controlled the market throughout, with a total liquidation of only $160,000 in 24 hours, indicating a low liquidity and ineffective market... Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $79,600 $79,500 $62.58 4 hours $79,600 $79,500 $62.58 12 hours $98,600 $98,500 $62.58 24 hours $160,300 $128,100 $32,200 From 1 to 12 hours, bulls almost monopolized the market (shorts less than $100), with volume rising from $79,500 to $98,500, showing extreme control; shorts appeared in 24 hours but bulls led by 4 times, liquidating $128,100 against shorts' $32,200, totaling $160,300. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 61.5% of the 24-hour total, with a moderately high concentration. The bull multiple fell from an extreme value to 4 times; although the short squeeze momentum weakened significantly, bulls still fully controlled the market, with a clear bullish direction. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; direction is bullish but total volume is very small, so avoid blindly chasing longs. 🔥 Market Indicator | August 26 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company remaining inactive amid the surge. ₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability in Doubt During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024. The core catalyst for this rally comes from macro factors. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering a dollar sell-off and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold. Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows that last week, approximately $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated. However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, sustained spot demand must replace forced buying. 🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list. Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the related processes." After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell instead of rising—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel, WTI to about $85/barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing concerns. 🏦 Strategy Holds Steady: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What? The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385. During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account. Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at the current price will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin's short-term trend. 💎 Summary Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. OKB contract liquidations totaled only $160,000 for the whole day, indicating a low liquidity ineffective market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Family, the latest NVIDIA earnings report was released in the early morning of August 27 Beijing time (after market close on August 26 Eastern Time), covering the second quarter of fiscal year 2027. This earnings report focuses on three key points. The market expects revenue of about $91.9 billion, the company's official guidance is $91 billion, and the forecast market gives a 96% probability of exceeding expectations, but the expectation gap has been compressed to the limit. After four consecutive quarters of beating expectations, the stock price actually fell the day after the earnings report; the market is no longer satisfied with "good or not," but looks at "whether it can continue to beat expectations in the next two to three quarters." The biggest variable this time is the Rubin platform revenue being quantified for the first time, which determines whether the growth slope of AI computing power in the next phase can break the "sunlight death" curse. NVIDIA's scale is about $5.3 trillion, and the options market prices the market value fluctuation after the earnings report at about $280 billion. The chief strategist of Principal Asset Management said: "If NVIDIA has any slip-ups, it could be bad news for the entire market." This earnings guidance will directly affect the global semiconductor supply chain and AI capital expenditure expectations. Bitcoin just broke above 80,000. If NVIDIA's earnings beat expectations, the AI chain will continue to strengthen; if the guidance is conservative, the entire risk asset market will shake accordingly. The truth will be revealed tonight. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $NVDA $BTC To understand today's market, we must first grasp the essence of this round of rebound. First, the U.S. Treasury's "unintentional" move: Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per transaction. This measure not only failed to effectively suppress U.S. Treasury yields but also triggered a "currency depreciation trade"—the market interpreted this as a hidden weakening of the dollar's credit, leading funds to flow into gold and Bitcoin as hedging tools. Gold broke through $4,600 per ounce, and Bitcoin surged over 25% in a single week. Second, the chain reaction of short squeeze: After Bitcoin broke through $70,000, it triggered massive short covering. Over $4 billion in crypto short positions were liquidated within two to three days. The short squeeze pushed prices up, and the rising prices attracted more buying, creating a positive feedback loop. Third, the return of institutional funds: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.92 billion in net inflows last week, marking the largest single-week inflow since October last year. Combined weekly inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs totaled $2.61 billion. But the most intriguing point is: Strategy—the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder—has not made any new purchases for two weeks. This rebound occurred in the absence of the largest "whale," which precisely indicates that the driving force comes from a more macro level rather than the actions of a single institution. $BTC $ETH SOL evolves again! From a casino to financial infrastructure! $SOL has gained another solid fundamental: on-chain RWA holders have surpassed 300,000, reaching over 313,000 by the end of July, with RWA asset size around $3.73 billion; meanwhile, in June, Solana accounted for about 96% of tokenized stock on-chain trading volume, indicating this is no longer just a Meme casino. My judgment: RWA is one of the most promising narratives for SOL in the mid to long term. 300,000 holders mean the user base is expanding, but the number of holders ≠ capital scale. Ethereum’s total RWA value is still significantly higher. In terms of strategy, consider buying SOL in batches on pullbacks to key support, and think about adding more after breaking previous highs; don’t go all in just because of 300,000 wallets. What really matters is whether the RWA scale, stablecoin inflows, and on-chain trading volume can sustain growth.Every trade is a wrong trade, so trade less 📊 $XAU Contract Liquidation Express (August 26) Long positions dominated control step by step after the opening, with momentum first declining then rising, forming a V-shaped reversal. The 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeded $3.72 million, with a concentration of 57.3%…… Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $52,600 $52,600 $0 4 hours $163,000 $116,900 $46,100 12 hours $2,137,100 $1,386,000 $751,100 24 hours $3,727,000 $2,799,200 $927,800 In 1 hour, longs monopolized (shorts zero), volume $52,600, tentative control; in 4 hours, longs moderately expanded by 2.54 times, volume surged to $116,900; in 12 hours, long ratio dropped to 1.84 times, volume surged to $1,386,000, narrowing the long-short gap; in 24 hours, longs surged again to 3.02 times, liquidation $2,799,200 vs. shorts $927,800, totaling $3,727,000. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 57.3% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration. The long ratio fell from 2.54 to 1.84 then rebounded to 3.02, forming a V-shaped reversal. The short squeeze momentum first weakened then strengthened again, with longs establishing comprehensive dominance over the 24-hour period. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; avoid blindly chasing longs. 🔥 Market Indicator | August 26 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin knocking on the $80,000 door amid a "devaluation trade," the US shifting from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, and the largest Bitcoin holding company choosing to stay put amid the surge. ₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Shorts Worth $7.2 Billion Vaporized, but Sustainability in Doubt During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. The cumulative gain in August has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since November 2024. The core catalyst for this rally is macroeconomic. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar selling and reigniting the "devaluation trade." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond buyback plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold. Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows about $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week. However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen. For Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, ongoing spot demand must replace forced buying. 🚢 US Launches "Economic Normandy Landing" Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Strangulation In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the "economic Normandy landing" operation against Iran. Sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities, individuals, and vessels added to the sanctions list. Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process." After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92 per barrel, WTI to about $85 per barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears. 🏦 Strategy Stays Put: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What? The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385. During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company held $5.1 billion in USD reserves and an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account. Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at current prices will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin's short-term trend. 💎 Summary Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trade" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to an "economic Normandy landing" against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. The XAU contract longs reversed from 1.84x to 3.02x in a V-shape, with cumulative liquidation of $3.72 million and concentration of 57.3%, short squeeze momentum re-strengthened, forming technical resonance with strong gold spot. When devaluation trade, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold? #Strategy issues more shares to expand cash, BTC allocation rhythm under focus Good morning everyone $BTC BTC In a complete bull and bear cycle, BTC is the initiator and terminator of the market trend. In every recovery phase of the cycle, BTC is the first to bottom out and the first to start, relying on macro and institutional funds to open up upward space, activating the entire crypto market's risk appetite. When the market reaches the mid-to-late bull phase, funds spread outward, and BTC's relative returns decline, but as long as the bull market hasn't ended, it won't fully enter a bear market; at the bubble's end, after altcoins collectively celebrate, BTC is also the first to sense the macro turning point and peak early. In the bear market phase, it is the last asset to fall. It does not chase hot spots but defines the overall market's major cycle direction. All public chain coins' trends are built on BTC's upward cycle. Without BTC's trend recovery, ETH and SOL find it difficult to sustain large trends. $ETH ETH Is a relay asset within the cycle. In the early recovery, it passively follows BTC's rise and struggles to form an independent trend; only when the market confirms the bull market is not a short rebound will funds start to layout ecological narratives, and the ETH/BTC ratio rises. Its highlight window is concentrated in the mid-bull market: L2, RWA, DeFi narratives ferment, and on-chain economic expectations are fully priced in. In the most frenzied late bull phase, funds further flow to smaller, more elastic targets, and ETH underperforms SOL-like coins. In the bear market, its bottoming and recovery lag behind BTC but precede high-risk public chains. Simply put, it misses the very start and the wildest end of the market, mainly earning growth returns in the bull market's mid-phase. $SOL SOL A typical bull market late-stage amplifier. It often performs mediocrely in the early recovery, and even short-term pulses rarely sustain a trend; only when the market is fully frenzied, risk appetite maxed out, and speculative hot money overflows massively, does SOL experience the main upward wave. Its rise height does not fully depend on its own ecosystem progress but more on the volume of excess speculative funds in the market. Once the cycle turning point approaches, it is also among the first assets to be abandoned, with a drop speed and magnitude far exceeding BTC and ETH. It is suitable for late-cycle speculation; participating early in the market often has low cost-effectiveness. Rotation sequence summary: Cycle warming first confirmed by BTC bottom trend; mid-bull market relay by ETH; market frenzy explosion by SOL. Once the cycle reverses, the sequence is realized in reverse: SOL crashes first, followed by ETH correction, and BTC bears pressure last. Currently, we are still in the early stage of cycle recovery, not yet entering the phase of large-scale fund outflow. BTC is beating drums at the $80,000 threshold, but on-chain action is much calmer than emotion. Have people around you started posting screenshots of their holdings? When I saw this event post, my first reaction wasn't excitement, but a bit of caution. When a symbolic number threshold is paired with the ritual of "sharing gifts," the market is often trading not just prices, but a sense of "participation." Let's start with the lively surface. BTC broke through 80,000, social media was abuzz, and HODL enthusiasts, bargain hunters, and new entrants were all posting their trades. The essence of these activities is to take a group photo of the "consensus," making everyone feel as if they are standing within a frame of history. But what about the underlying structure? The signal I saw was that prices are breaking through the threshold, but the funding rates for perpetual contracts have not become extremely overly excited, indicating that leveraged funds are not out of control, but it also means that the "crowd base" behind this rally is not as solid as imagined. Those truly buying may not be retail FOMO, but funds lurking in advance driven by events. Here's an easily overlooked point: the $80,000 is important not because of itself, but because it's treated as a 'psychological anchor.' The market is not trading this number, but rather the expectation that "after the breakout, more people will believe it can continue to rise." So you'll see that the closer the price gets to the threshold, the more volatility converges, because everyone is waiting for a confirmation signal. The bullish path is clear: after holding above 80,000, short covering will give a push, ETH and mainstream coins will catch up, and risk appetite will shift from "testing" to "testing."The tariff script from the Trudeau era continues Canada has imposed counter-tariffs of up to 50%, covering over 700 categories of U.S. goods, totaling about $20 billion, effective September 8; previously, the U.S. had already imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods. This is no longer just a simple trade friction; it is a chain of "tariffs → inflation → interest rates → risk assets" heating up again. In the short term, this is bearish for U.S. stocks and the Canadian dollar, while gold and BTC may actually benefit from safe-haven demand and dollar depreciation trades; however, if the escalation continues, worsening risk appetite will also first hit crypto. Strategy: Gold $XAU is biased long, $BTC not chasing the rally, control position around 80,000, wait for a pullback confirmation; if the trade war escalates further, reduce altcoin leverage. $BTC is currently around $64K, total market cap about $2.28T, total market volume around $44B/day, and BTC dominance still above 56% according to CoinGecko. I don't think anyone serious can know exactly where BTC will be by mid-2027. But we can prepare for three different worlds. 🟢 BULL WORLD US–Iran cool down. Oil drops. Bond yield drops. Fed has room to ease. US crypto regulation clearer. Stablecoin and tokenization expand. BTC breakout. ETH/BTC reversal. BTC.D drops. In that world, Unitree Technology dropped 45%! These days, watching Unitree Technology, my emotions have been quite conflicted. The issue price was ¥150.8, it opened directly at ¥1100 on the first day of listing, and finally closed at ¥845. By August 25, the market value was still ¥243.8 billion. Some say it has already "halved" and it's a good time to buy the dip. But when I glanced at the issue price again, I calmed down. ¥602.8 is still about 4 times the issue price. The price is easily amplified by emotions and chip distribution. The company itself indeed has substance. It has already sold real products and achieved profitability. This is also why I am willing to study it seriously. Many robot companies are still showcasing concepts, but Unitree has already made the product, reduced costs, and can deliver in batches. Its advantages in motion control, complete machine engineering, and supply chain are visible to the naked eye. But the stock price is buying the future. Next, I want to look at three questions: Whether robots have continuous repurchase, whether the proportion of industrial customers has increased, and whether a single machine can work steadily for thousands of hours and save real money for customers. Dancing and backflips are certainly impressive. But commercialization ultimately comes down to failure rate, working hours, and payback period. I like Unitree as a company and recognize it may represent a breakthrough in Chinese robot manufacturing. But facing the current stock price, I don't want to convince myself just with the words "the first humanoid robot stock." Unitree's products are already running; now it needs time for performance to catch up with market imagination. #宇树上市后连续回落，估值如何定价？ Today marks another round of the secondary Bsc meme market, most likely driven by Lobster. $Lobster Early on, I always said the market maker was weak because every time it started, it was like it never really started, usually relying on pump signals, then a quick run and dump. Until this recent phase, from 10 to 20, no one was pumping, and 20 stayed flat for a long time. Even today's breakout to a new high had hardly anyone pumping. So be cautious when you see mass pump signals afterward, because I've observed that most pump signals can't be entered immediately; they usually trap you for a while before the price recovers later. Today I followed Lobster's gains. $KOMA $I'mFuckingHere Why not follow others? Because I previously followed $tut, which seems to be in a consolidation phase, so I can't follow now. If you don't hold coins at the start of a run, I wouldn't chase. There are many small coins; recently, it's better to focus on positioning quietly.Looking at daily volume, Bitcoin and Ethereum's recent rally has indeed accumulated considerable fatigue, with momentum gradually weakening and correction signals already flashing yellow light. But from another perspective, market funds have settled to this level and liquidity has returned. To directly reverse and bearish is actually quite difficult. 🌊 However, this does not mean that those price gaps below that have been skipped can be ignored. The gap left by Ethereum between $2150 and $2200 has always been like a hanging stone, reminding the market balance to be not yet complete. My observation is that this gap is more likely to be quickly filled by inserting needles rather than slowly grinding down on a bearish dip. For short-term traders, that area might be worth tentatively entering with small positions, but the premise is to firmly hold stop-losses and not let luck replace discipline. 📌 To put it plainly, after three consecutive high-volume long bullish candles, the physical range of the middle bullish candlestick is often the area most easily filled during pullbacks. This is not a prediction but a statistical pattern of market inertia: funds have turnover demand there, and prices tend to return to cost-intensive areas to confirm support. So rather than anxious about a sharp drop, it's better to view this as a structural self-repair. ⚖️ Currently, there is little new macro pressure; oil price declines and geopolitical factors have limited disturbances to risk assets, while institutions continue to increase cash reserves, indicating that large funds remain patient with subsequent allocation rhythms. Against this backdrop, short-term fluctuations are more technical than trend changes. 💡 But still $CORE In the short term of 1–2 years, CORE is unlikely to completely decouple from BTC. The market logic will always be: BTC surges → BTCFi sentiment heats up → CORE follows with a slight rise; BTC consolidates or falls → CORE pulls back first, with reduced gains and a rise-and-fall pattern. Its ceiling is always determined by Bitcoin's market performance, and its own fundamentals can only decide whether it outperforms or underperforms other BTCFi projects, unable to enter an independent bull market.

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