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xau volume increase + OI increase + price rise = new capital entering to drive, this is a real breakout, completely different in nature from BTC's "OI shrinking rise," with better quality. Short-term bullish on gold, decisive battle near 4775, bull-bear dividing line. Invalid if: closes below 4,509 → breakout falsified, returns to consolidation; breaks below 4,376 → turns bearish$DOGE is now $0.0867, down 6.42% in 24 hours, the worst performer in the market, no need for me to explain further.
Technically, the RSI is 70.9, so it's not that overbought, but the trend is the worst. Support is at 0.0848; if it breaks, look for 0.08.
A harsh truth: the Musk effect is basically dead by 2026, tweets no longer cause price spikes; the spot DOGE ETF only ended its 16-day zero inflow on 8/20, with just $650,000 coming in. Now the only narrative holding is the DOGE-1 satellite launch on 9/14.
My approach: don’t rush to catch the weakest. If 0.0848 holds, you can try a light position; if it breaks 0.08, wait for 0.075 before acting. I see the range as 0.075–0.093. I suggest everyone treat this as a sentiment play, not a core holding.
---SNDK — Phase D failed, fell back to the pivot, turning neutral. Continued decline over the next 6 trading days, gap down −6.5% on 8/24, proving that the long upper shadow on 8/17–8/18 was indeed distribution, not a healthy pullback. On 8/17, it surged to 1,827.99 then closed at 1,786.85
UT (Upthrust) — failed breakout
8/18 −9.01% long upper shadow, volume 18.65 million
Distribution confirmed
8/19–8/21 continuous decline, volume decreasing
No support rebound
8/24 gap down −6.5%, volume 14.03 million
Breakdown. The correct characterization is: the breakout on 8/13 was the first half of UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution), and the 1,827.99 on 8/17 was a failed upthrust. Currently, it has fallen to 1,480, within the HVN dense area (1,433–1,562). The decline is on decreasing volume. Selling pressure is indeed exhausting, but this only means "the fall is losing momentum," not "it will rise." Advice: do not buy here. Consider only if any of the following conditions are met:
Condition Operation
Pullback to 1,413–1,417 with volume contraction and long lower shadow
Try long, stop loss 1,340, target 1,600, 1–2x position, 20% trial position
Volume surge to reclaim 1,510 (EMA50) and hold for 2 days
Resume bullish view, enter, stop loss 1,420, target 1,696 / 1,828
Close below 1,390
Abandon long, wait until 1,163
Shorting is not recommended: fundamentals are strong (zero debt, Forward PE 6.2) + already down 19% + volume contraction, shorting has low risk-reward and may violently rebound anytime due to industry news. The ATR of 10.27% makes shorting risk asymmetric. Then it might dip a bit more, and I will exit my short position.Looking at XAU, BTC, and SNDK from the perspective of volume and price. For BTC, it's currently unclear whether it's an extension of wave 3, meaning whether the top is wave 3 or wave 5. The position at 81273. The space above opens up to 83-84. Positioning: congestion has further worsened. The large holder position ratio at 2.256 has hit a recent high, with the direction still bullish. But this is already an extreme reading. Price is making new highs while OI continues to shrink— the rise still relies on short covering, with no new long funds. This is the biggest hidden risk in this rally. If it breaks below 74000, the wave 5 structure collapses. Then there will be a test of 69. If 69 fails, it's a bearish return.#Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Walsh Clarify the Policy Path?
The boss has something to say
The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting officially opens this Thursday, and Walsh will deliver the keynote speech at 10 PM Beijing time on Friday. This is his first time speaking at this podium as the Federal Reserve Chair.
The market is waiting for three things.
First, can Walsh clearly explain his policy logic? Since taking office, he has deliberately avoided forward guidance, shortened policy statements, and been vague in two press conferences. The 30-year US Treasury yield once surged to 5.334%, with the market punishing uncertainty through yields. Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker bluntly said Walsh must directly address the inflation issue; such vague statements are no longer enough, and the market will be very disappointed.
Second, will he provide guidance on the policy path from September to December? This is still undecided. If ambiguity continues, TD Securities warns of a clear "asymmetric risk." The key is that there will be no Q&A session after the speech; the real direction might be judged from off-stage remarks by other officials during the meeting. About five Fed officials are expected to give interviews to various media on Friday.
Third, how will he reconcile the contradictions in economic data? PMI is at a four-year high while consumption is weak, sending mixed signals about the US economy. Inflation has been above 2% for five consecutive years, and employment is starting to loosen. The Fed's decision-making framework needs to connect these variables.
Tonight, the PCE data will be released first, with core PCE expected to remain at 3.3%. CME shows about a 41% chance of a rate hike in September. A PCE above expectations will further solidify the rate hike logic; below expectations will give Walsh more room for a "wait" strategy. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market front, Bitcoin is oscillating near 80,000, with all long positions closed waiting for a pullback. Do not heavily bet on direction before the PCE and Walsh's speech. Those holding positions should set stop losses.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.A financial report makes the AI optical bottleneck argument even harder to ignore.
$SMTC Q2:
• Revenue: $341.9 million vs. about $329 million expected
• Q3 guidance: $410 million vs. about $360 million expected
• Data center revenue: +91% year-over-year
• Next quarter data center guidance: +45% quarter-over-quarter
But these numbers are not the most interesting part.
Semtech states that demand for its FiberEdge TIA and driver products remains very strong.
These products are now designed into every module supplier in its target market—some even hold exclusive supplier status—and the company expects to exceed a 50% share in the 1.6T FiberEdge market by the end of the fiscal year.
This changes the question.
It’s no longer just:
“How much AI compute capacity will hyperscale cloud providers buy?”
But increasingly:
“Which upstream optical components can truly scale quickly to support it?”
1.6T is progressing step-by-step from certification → backlog → revenue stage.
This is where I am looking for the next bottleneck. #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 In my view, the current situation is a clearing of chips after all the negative news has been released and a valuation recovery, and $SPCX should soon return to $150! After all the negative news has been released, the structural turnover of the holding positions is completed. The market's previous decline was largely an early pricing of the expected liquidity shock. The end of selling pressure is the buying point. On the day of unlocking and the following days, early institutions and employee holdings were released in concentration, causing a short-term supply-demand imbalance. But as this batch of low-cost chips is fully absorbed by the secondary market, the strongest selling pressure barrier has been broken. The turnover rate and chip sedimentation, along with a volume-increasing rebound, indicate extremely sufficient turnover. After panic and profit-taking positions exit, the main entrants are mid-to-long-term allocation funds and bottom-fishing main forces optimistic about future development. The average cost of chips has been significantly raised, forming a very resilient base ($130 - $135 support band). The potential momentum of short squeeze is based on the logic that short positions expecting a crash upon unlocking will face huge closing pressure when the price rebounds strongly instead of breaking down further. Once a key point is broken through, the short covering will turn into extra fuel pushing the price straight to $150! Core business data continues to exceed expectations, supporting valuation reshaping. The unlocking pressure only suppresses short-term liquidity, not long-term value. The core business logic behind SPCX remains intact and is even accelerating. Starlink's cash flow is entering an explosive period. With steady growth in global user base and enterprise/aviation/maritime orders, cash flow and net profit are accelerating, providing a solid foundation for valuation.#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
I've been taking a deeper look at ZEC these days, so I'll just follow my own thoughts.
Now that traditional funds have a legal and compliant way to enter ZEC, no wonder it has surged so sharply these days—$14.8 million, a number worth noting.
I'm increasingly convinced that the real story of ZEC isn't how much it has risen in the short term, but that it is following a path very similar to Bitcoin's early days.
Bitcoin initially solved peer-to-peer transfers, then gradually became digital gold, serving as store of value, cross-border transfers, asset allocation, and more. But as on-chain analysis and AI get stronger, BTC's capital flows are becoming increasingly transparent.
In the past, people used BTC to solve "how to transfer"; in the future, more people may need to solve "after transferring, they don't want all the details to be visible."
This is where ZEC's opportunity lies.
With a total supply of 21 million and a PoW mechanism, in a sense it is the "privacy version of $BTC." More importantly, ZEC has now entered traditional financial markets through a spot ETF, and Wall Street is opening a compliant gateway for privacy assets.
So what I truly focus on is not the $14.8 million trading volume, but that ZEC is walking the path BTC once took—only this time, it is betting on "privacy."这一轮比特币的走势，真正让人在意的并不是它从六万多美元涨了多少，而是它在触及八万美元这个长期心理关口之后，并没有像过去那样立刻被抛盘压垮。昨天盘中最高一度逼近81,200美元，随后虽然有所回落，但大部分时间价格都稳稳停留在78,000至80,000美元之间。这种“高位横住”的状态，往往比单边拉升更值得琢磨。 过去一周，比特币累计涨幅超过20%，按照常理，市场早该出现一次像样的获利回吐。但现实是，回调幅度相当克制，且下方始终有承接力量。这说明当前买入的并非只是短线投机客，而是有更持续的资金在逐步建仓。真正支撑这种判断的，是资金面的持续转暖——美国现货比特币ETF已经连续多日录得净流入，仅8月24日单日流入就达到约3.38亿美元，上一整周累计净流入接近19亿美元。这种体量的机构资金持续入场，为价格在高位站稳提供了坚实的筹码基础。 八万美元之所以关键，是因为它既是心理整数关口，也是过去多次反弹失败的密集成交区。通常来说，一个压力位被反复测试却始终无法有效跌破，往往意味着卖方力量正在衰竭。这几日比特币在80,000美元附近的反复拉锯，本质上就是多空双方在该区域的真实换手。只要价格不快速失守这一#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%
Many people think Nvidia is just cashing in again. On the contrary, I believe this price hike actually reveals who the real winners in the AI industry chain are.
Bloomberg reported that Nvidia has notified key customers like Microsoft and Google that flagship AI servers such as Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell, shipping in early 2027, will see a price increase of over 15% across the board.
On the surface, it looks like Nvidia is raising prices, but it is actually a passive move. The core driver of the price hike is the soaring cost of memory chips.
In next-generation high-end AI servers, the cost share of HBM plus DRAM has surged to 25%-35%, whereas it was less than 10% before. The unit cost of HBM has skyrocketed by 435%, and production capacity is tightly controlled by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Capacity through 2027 is basically locked in, so prices can be raised at will. Even Nvidia, with a 75% gross margin, cannot withstand this cost increase and has to pass it downstream.
The industry chain logic is clear: the closer to upstream core capacity, the stronger the bargaining power. Memory manufacturers are earning windfall profits from price hikes, OEM server manufacturers can only earn processing fees by passing costs along, and downstream cloud providers are squeezed from both ends—hardware costs rise while service prices remain competitive.
The same applies to investment: I prefer to focus on upstream memory leaders like SK Hynix rather than downstream server manufacturers. AI money ultimately settles in the bottleneck capacity segment, while downstream players only get revenue scale without profit elasticity.
Which part of the AI industry chain do you think is more promising? Seeing last week's Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF assets surge by $23 billion, do you think institutions are frantically buying?
The reality might not involve that much new capital entering the market.
According to the latest data reported by Decrypt, out of this $23 billion AUM (Assets Under Management) increase, only $2.6 billion is actual "new money" inflow.
So where did the remaining $20+ billion come from? It's all due to the underlying coin price appreciation and the liquidation of short positions.
During $BTC's breakout past key resistance levels, about $4 billion worth of short positions were forcibly liquidated within two days. This short-squeeze-induced "stampede buyback" became the strongest fuel driving the price surge.
Therefore, this rally is essentially a "revaluation of existing holdings + leverage liquidations," rather than a systemic inflow of genuine external incremental funds.
Looking at a longer timeframe, year-to-date, these two major ETFs still show a net outflow deficit of about $3.1 billion.
The single-day biggest capital inflow still comes from BlackRock's IBIT, with the oligopoly's bloodletting effect intensifying.
Relying on short-squeeze liquidations can indeed create short-term hype, but for the market to truly stabilize and kick off a raging bull run, we must see sustained volume-driven net buying in the spot channels. The Jackson Hole meeting is coming up soon, and Federal Reserve Chair Wash will also be giving a speech. I tend to believe that Wash will most likely end up coordinating in some practical way with Basset, or at least not opposing the Treasury Department.
If the Treasury starts buying back long-term bonds and tries to lower long-term financing costs, while the Fed is unwilling to continue aggressively tightening amid elevated inflation, then we are gradually moving toward financial repression.
Financial repression means the government has too much debt and cannot sustain high interest rates of 5% or 6% indefinitely. So, through the Treasury, the Fed, and regulatory policies, they try to keep government bond yields and real interest rates low, while allowing inflation to be slightly higher. For example, if government bonds yield 4%, but inflation is persistently around 3% to 4%, the real return for creditors is very low, and the government can slowly "dilute" its debt through economic growth and inflation. Historically, this environment has been favorable for gold and is also a long-term positive for assets like $BTC with fixed supply.
This week, the two macro time points I am most focused on are: 8:30 AM Eastern Time Wednesday for the July PCE release, and 10 AM Friday for Wash's speech at Jackson Hole.
I think volatility around Jackson Hole could be significant because gold and BTC have already priced in some of these expectations. Assuming BTC is around $80,000 now, if the PCE is hotter than expected, there might be a correction, say down to $73,000–$78,000, washing out recent leveraged positions. Then on Friday, if Wash does not actually tighten further, BTC could quickly V-shaped back up.
The key is what happens after the speech. If long-term yields and real yields start to decline, the dollar weakens, and Wash does not show willingness to continue aggressively fighting inflation, then I believe the overall trend for gold and BTC remains bullish. Especially if the market ultimately confirms that the Fed is tacitly allowing Basset to suppress the US's real financing costs, this could trigger a larger asset repricing for gold and bitcoin:native.Liquidation numbers don't lie: when bull-bear markets switch, the market first washes the levers clean before telling the story. Have you ever wondered why, before every market starts, a group of people is always knocked out first? Today I came across a set of liquidation data and suddenly wanted to add some logic I hadn't looked into before. On October 10, 2025, the day the bear market began, short liquidations totaled $2.46 billion, and long positions totaled $16.78 billion. By August 19, 2026, the day the bull market started, short liquidations totaled $2.739 billion, and long liquidations dropped to just $248 million. The interesting part is not in absolute values, but in proportions. On the day of the bear market, the long positions' positions were nearly seven times those of the bears, wiped out, indicating that the market consensus was still stuck at "a big drop will lead to a rebound." Buying the bottom too thickly turned into fuel. On the day of the bull market, the opposite happened: the bears were completely cleared out, and the bulls suffered almost no damage, indicating the trend was recognized and no one dared to go against it. What I really care about is the following sentence: after multiple bottoms, open interest begins to steadily rebound. This signal is more honest than the price itself. - Price can be fooled by a single large bullish candlestick, but the open interest is real money entering the market. - If the price rises but open interest falls, that's short covering, and the market won't go far. - When prices rise and open interest also increases, new capital is actively building positions, and the trend can continue. Combined with BTC's 200-day moving average firmly above 69,118, these factors combined mean that historically all combinations have basically corresponded to a decent trend rally. But I don't want to just talk about itIn the next 30 days, expect $BTC to fluctuate widely, first digesting then leaning bullish, no chasing highs. Current price is about 78,900, just pulled from 63,000 to 81,200, ETFs are still buying, but RSI is overbought, resistance at 80,000–83,000. This week also has Jackson Hole and options expiry. Main range is 75,000–83,000, strong target 85,000–87,000, weak target 72,000.
1 million U: Spot 32%, Dollar-cost averaging 18%, Grid 16%, Dual currency earn 12%, Earn coin 8%, Options 6%, Futures 3%, Flexible 5%. At current price, buy 180,000 spot first, place remaining 140,000 orders at 77,000/75,000/72,800; DCA 20,000 weekly, plus add at 76,000/74,000/71,500. Grid trading between 74,500–82,500, close if closing breaks 83,000 or 74,000. Dual currency earn: buy low with 60,000 U at 73,500–75,000, sell high 40,000 BTC at 84,500–86,000. Options only buy, no naked selling; futures max 3x leverage, stop after losing 30,000.
Reduce spot by one-third at 85,500–87,000; if close falls below 72,000, reduce by half and lower risk. Invalid signals: break below 72,000 with continuous ETF outflows, or fail to recover 75,000 after speeches.
#OKX星球话题来啦 Iran Sanctions, Talks & Crypto
Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, sending oil lower and easing immediate inflation fears. At the same time, Washington has expanded sanctions targeting Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated
$BTC is holding near $79K, while $ETH remains around $2.5K. If diplomacy advances, falling oil and softer risk premiums could support crypto. But renewed escalation or tighter sanctions could quickly reverse sentimentLet me share some real thoughts about the US stock market, specifically about the S&P 500 index.
I really admire Duan Yongping. He has a famous saying: if you don't understand investing, it's recommended to buy the S&P; if you actually buy the S&P 500, it means you really understand investing.
So, looking at the performance of the S&P 500, around 2011 it was just over 1,000, and now it's almost 8,000. From 2011 to now, that's about 7-8 times growth, and the return rate should have outperformed the vast majority of funds.
Just when I felt very confident about this, when I told others, my wife, who never invests, asked: how was the performance in the 15 years before 2011? It turns out that in 1996 it was about 800, and by 2011 the total return was about 30%.
So the question is, do you think the current time point is more like 2011 or 1996?
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Analysis of Core's Quantum-Resistant Technology Strength
⚠️ Risk Warning: Content is compiled from publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.
1. Conclusion First
1. Formal R&D has already started with an official clear roadmap, but currently there is no quantum-resistant feature available on the mainnet; it is still in the research and planning stage and not yet implemented.
2. Roadmap: Uses a hybrid dual-signature architecture (traditional ECDSA signature + NIST-standard post-quantum signature in parallel).
Logic: Each transaction carries two sets of signatures.
If a quantum computer breaks the elliptic curve algorithm, the post-quantum signature ensures asset security; if a new PQC algorithm has vulnerabilities, the original signature acts as a fallback, enabling a smooth transition and avoiding forced migration via hard fork.
3. Team Understanding: Official public view — hashing and mining power themselves are not threatened by quantum computing; the biggest risk is the ECDSA signature (public/private keys), commonly referred to in the industry as the "risk of collecting public keys now and future quantum decryption stealing coins."
2. Progress Timeline (Public Information)
- April 2026: Officially announced the quantum defense roadmap and formed a cryptography research team;
- Current stage: scheme demonstration, algorithm selection (benchmarking NIST-standardized post-quantum signature ML-DSA), internal testing;
- No clear timetable for hard fork/upgrade or testnet release;
- Currently, Core mainnet still uses standard ECDSA, same as Bitcoin and Ethereum, with no native quantum resistance.
3. Objective Advantages and Shortcomings (Compared with BTCFi track, Stacks/Babylon)
✅ Advantages
1. As an EVM-compatible independent Layer 1, it can progressively upgrade cryptographic modules and design a "hybrid signature smooth migration" scheme without forcing users to migrate private keys all at once;
2. Targeting institutional funds (lstBTC, custodial clients), quantum security is a long-term narrative to attract family offices and asset managers, providing strategic motivation for continuous investment;
3. The planned scheme is compatible with retail self-custody BTC staking scenarios, balancing both retail and institutional needs.
❌ Shortcomings (Key community controversies)
1. Only at the roadmap planning stage, no engineering implementation results, no third-party cryptographic audit reports; it is an expected narrative rather than current capability;
2. Quantum-resistant upgrades involve major underlying cryptographic changes, likely requiring a hard fork in the future, with significant challenges coordinating validator nodes, wallets, and DApp ecosystem modifications;
3. Competitor comparison:
Stacks and Babylon have also not launched mature quantum-resistant solutions; across the entire BTCFi track, quantum resistance is generally a long-term R&D topic, and no chain has yet achieved full commercial quantum resistance; everyone is at the same starting line.
4. Distinguishing Two Easily Confused Misconceptions
1. ❌ Misconception: "Satoshi Plus consensus inherently provides quantum resistance"
Consensus mechanism (hash power + staking) addresses 51% attacks; it cannot resist Shor's algorithm breaking ECDSA private keys. These are completely different security issues.
2. ❌ Misconception: "BTC staying on Bitcoin mainnet = naturally quantum-resistant"
Bitcoin's native ECDSA signatures are vulnerable to quantum computing. BTC principal security depends on Bitcoin network's own future post-quantum upgrades, unrelated to Core chain. Core's quantum scheme protects transactions, staking certificates, and CORE token accounts on the Core chain.
5. Follow-up Tracking of Three Key Signals (to verify narrative fulfillment)
1. Official release of a post-quantum cryptography whitepaper and selection of formal algorithms;
2. Launch of testnet version, open for developer and wallet team integration testing;
3. Hiring independent cryptographic security firms to complete special audits, publish audit reports, and provide a clear mainnet upgrade timetable.
Brief Summary (can be directly included in your STX/CORE comparison article)
Core DAO has started quantum security R&D and publicly announced its roadmap, adopting a classic cryptography + post-quantum hybrid dual-signature scheme to address future risks of quantum computing breaking signatures.
However, it is currently all in the R&D phase, with no related features deployed on the mainnet, representing a long-term expected narrative.
All mainstream projects in the BTCFi track currently lack mature commercial quantum-resistant solutions; in the short term, this will not be a core catalyst for market trends but rather a long-term ecological competitiveness highlight.
#CORE #BTCFi #QuantumSecurity$BTC Bitcoin might need to drop to $10,000 to be relatively safe. This is not alarmism, nor is it wishful thinking. Listen to my reasons.
Everyone believes that Bitcoin's bottom gets higher every four-year cycle, but have you ever considered the possibility of a super black swan event? Bitcoin has already gone through three major bull markets.
From a cyclical perspective, I am quite worried that the AI bubble bursting in the next year or two will trigger a comprehensive crash in risk assets. Bitcoin could also fall to around $10,000. Honestly, the three bull markets of Bitcoin were essentially caused by a super bubble in the US. When that super bubble bursts, it will push Bitcoin into an abyss.
Whether it was the steam engine era, the electric light era, or the industrial revolution era, new things always experienced a process of breaking down before building up.
I hope I am just dreaming.$ETH冲击2550关口后快速回落，属于典型关键压力位假突破+短线获利盘集中兑现行情。2540‑2570区间堆积大量前期套牢单与上方止损挂单，冲高阶段先触发空头爆仓带来短期逼空推力，但现货增量买盘接续不足，价格触碰2550后多头动能快速衰竭，短线资金集中止盈，叠加高位新多进场后被快速扫损，形成冲高跳水走势，并非趋势直接反转，属于大涨之后高位震荡洗盘动作。 当日交易量拆解（全网口径，现货+合约） 1、冲高阶段：价格冲向2550瞬间合约成交量脉冲式暴增，短时集中爆仓推动拉升；现货成交量并未同步创出新高，出现明显量价背离，是本次突破失败核心信号。 2、全天24小时成交统计： • 现货全天成交：约48‑55亿美元，略高于7日均值，但突破阶段现货增量有限； • 合约全天成交：约360‑410亿美元，合约成交额远大于现货，本轮冲高杠杆资金占主导； • 整体盘面特征：上涨靠合约逼空拉动，现货承接薄弱；回落阶段成交量再度放大，短线抛压集中释放。 盘面解读 量能结构说明这一轮冲高更多杠杆资金推动，机构现货主动大举进场迹象不强。后市两个观察点：回踩后再度上攻2550必须现货放量，才是有效突破；如果后Good news: The Zcash ETF (ZCSH) has started trading on NYSE Arca with a sponsor fee of 2.5%; bad news: $ZEC has dropped from a high of $890 to about $787 currently, down 8% in 24h, basically crashed.
It's quite realistic—ETF listing means the compliance channel is open, but the price pullback also shows that fulfilling expectations doesn't mean continued rise. Of course, the long-term significance of the ZEC ETF far outweighs the price performance of these one or two days. Let the dust settle for a while and first see the subsequent asset scale and real inflow situation.$UNI stabilizing at the $4.0 level reflects the daily protocol revenue of $318,000 supporting spot market liquidity on the secondary market. The core issue is whether the deflationary burn can absorb sell pressure fast enough to offset liquidity contraction following a decline in on-chain trading activity.
In the spot market, the price rose from $2.3 to $4.6 before pulling back to $3.2, currently forming a dense support zone around $4.0. The launch of Robinhood Chain has driven daily revenue to $318,000, with a single-day burn peak of 186,000 tokens. Compared to the early deflation phase where only $800,000 was burned over 12 days, the daily deflation absorption capacity in the spot market has significantly changed.
The driving factors ranked by impact weight are: spot buy support from daily protocol repurchase and burn on the secondary market, incremental trading liquidity injected by the new Robinhood Chain ecosystem, and derivative market repricing of the deflation model premium. Protocol revenue directly converts into spot deflation burns, forming a real liquidity buffer in the $3.2 to $4.0 support range.
In a bullish scenario, if daily protocol revenue remains above $318,000 and single-day burn volume stays near historical highs, spot sell pressure will continue to be absorbed by the deflation mechanism. Combined with the chip structure stabilizing at $4.0, the price is expected to retest the previous high of $4.6 and expand valuation upward. The invalidation signal for this scenario is a continuous decline in daily revenue falling below the early deflation growth pace.
In a bearish scenario, if on-chain trading activity wanes causing a significant drop in daily fee revenue, the spot repurchase and burn’s ability to support market liquidity will quickly weaken. Once the $4.0 support breaks, the price will retest the previous pullback low of $3.2. The invalidation signal here is a single-day burn volume breaking the historical high of 186,000 tokens again, triggering forced supply shortage in the spot market.
Regardless of short-term trends, if protocol revenue cannot sustain spot buy injections into the secondary market or if front-end traffic experiences severe diversion, the long-term repricing logic based on the deflation model faces significant risk of revision.
The most critical variables to watch over the next 7 days are whether single-day burn volume can remain stable in the historical high range of 186,000 tokens and the depth of spot turnover at the $4.0 level.
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视The market is now at a very delicate point. External macro positive factors have already been fully reflected in the price. For BTC and ETH to move up another level, completely different triggering conditions are needed.
For $BTC to continue rising, ETFs need to maintain large net inflows, and corporate treasuries must keep buying to support the price; for $ETH to break out, relying solely on the overall market rally is far from enough. It requires a rebound in on-chain DeFi and Layer 2 network activity to drive a revaluation of network value.
If there are only macro positives but the on-chain ecosystem remains cold, then most likely BTC will maintain a high-level consolidation, and ETH will repeatedly grind down, underperforming the market. Don't confuse the two; understand the conditions each needs to rise to avoid the embarrassment of being right about the macro environment but holding the wrong coin $DOGE #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is approaching, and the market is highly focused on Federal Reserve official Wash's speech, hoping to capture clear signals on interest rate policy. Currently, the market is divided: on one hand, earlier long-term U.S. Treasury yields surged and inflation has been volatile, with many officials leaning hawkish, advocating to maintain high interest rates longer; on the other hand, U.S. stocks, crypto, and other risk assets are very sensitive to rate cut expectations and are eager for easing guidance.
However, this round Wash is unlikely to provide a very definite timeline for implementation. The Fed currently prefers to keep policy flexible and will not directly lock in a rate cut timing, emphasizing "data dependence" instead, with core focus on inflation persistence, employment resilience, and financial environment changes caused by long-term bond yield fluctuations.
In terms of market reaction, if Wash's tone is hawkish, emphasizing inflation risks and downplaying rate cut expectations, it will boost U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while suppressing stocks, gold, crypto, and other high-risk assets in the short term; if the tone is dovish, signaling possible rate cuts within the year, it will boost risk appetite, benefiting growth stocks, precious metals, and crypto assets.
Overall, this speech leans more toward expectation games, making it difficult to finalize a complete policy path directly. The focus is not on "clear conclusions" but on capturing his attitude toward inflation and interest rates, with short-term market volatility expected to be significantly amplified. $BTC $ETH $SOL Brothers, this is strange, $BICO suddenly surged to 0.02, what's going on? Is it accumulating at the bottom to pump, or setting a bull trap?
Yesterday, I was still holding a long position at 0.04105 with a floating loss of 149% at 0.02053, but today the price suddenly jumped from around 0.019 to 0.0205. You might think a small rise like this is nothing, but you have to know BICO fell from its all-time high of $21 to 0.017, a 99.9% drop. For a coin that has dropped so deeply, even a small rebound is a big gain. At the beginning of August, it surged from 0.011 to 0.089, a 700% increase in one week.
The market data also supports a rebound.
BICO's total perpetual contract 24-hour trading volume reached $93.95 million, with Binance and OKX each accounting for about $36 million. Such a large trading volume indicates capital movement. The most critical point is that BICO's funding rate has dropped to -0.749%! A negative funding rate means there are overwhelmingly more shorts, with extreme short crowding. When everyone is waiting to short, who will keep dumping? With shorts crowded to the extreme, any positive news or large investors buying in the opposite direction can trigger shorts to liquidate each other, causing a strong price rebound. The surge in early August was exactly due to shorts being liquidated and forcibly pushed the price up.
Moreover, BICO's fundamentals are not bad. It focuses on account abstraction, helping users save on Gas fees and combine multiple transactions—key infrastructure for Web3 onboarding. On August 21, Upbit just announced the launch of BICO trading pairs, a major Korean exchange listing, adding liquidity support.
My judgment: around 0.02 is the bottom area. With the funding rate negative to the extreme, crowded shorts, solid fundamentals, and a major exchange listing, going long here offers much better value than shorting.
Brothers, this time I choose to open my mindset and keep holding my long position!
$BTC
$ETH
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Anthropic has projected a potential market size of $30 trillion in its IPO preparations, but expects revenue of about $200 billion by 2028, which is less than 1% of the theoretical scale. Once this figure was released, the market immediately exploded with discussions on how AI companies should actually be valued.
Frankly, the $30 trillion figure seems more like a grand narrative crafted by investment banks to hype the IPO, essentially equating the total salaries of global knowledge workers as potential replacement space. In business history, no matter how large the ceiling is drawn, if it cannot be converted into a positive business loop, it will ultimately remain just on paper.
The primary market can pay for growth and vision, but once it moves to the secondary public market, investors' scrutiny logic becomes extremely harsh. Pure revenue scale does not guarantee survival; the key lies in the unit economics model and gross margin quality. If the model requires high computing power consumption and infrastructure depreciation costs for every dollar earned, scaling up will actually accelerate the rate of cash burn.
If Anthropic goes public in the future, I would never pay solely for theoretical market size; real free cash flow and the ability to cover computing costs are the hard truths. For asset allocation in the AI sector, the phase of separating the real from the fake has arrived, and only companies with sustainable cash generation capabilities can survive the cycles.
Seeing the $30 trillion market estimate, do you think this is a reasonable industry outlook or an overly optimistic capital frenzy?
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Bitcoin $BTC surpassing 80,000 is the result of macro liquidity, institutional capital, and a short squeeze resonating together, not simply an endogenous trend in the crypto world. US Treasury buybacks pushed down long-term yields, the dollar weakened, and combined with US crypto regulator-friendly expectations, spot ETFs saw the strongest weekly net inflow in nearly 10 months, with institutional funds continuing to enter the market; At the same time, a large number of short positions were concentrated in liquidation, further accelerating price hikes, with an 8-day cumulative gain close to 30%, and market sentiment quickly shifted to a greedy zone. Daily trading volume breakdown: On the day the 80,000 mark was broken, the total BTC spot + contract trading volume across the network surged significantly, with futures trading volume accounting for a higher proportion, and leveraged funds being the main driving force behind the rally. 24-hour spot trading volume is about $7.4-8 billion, with contract turnover close to $99 billion, with volume and price expanding simultaneously. The breakout is driven by incremental funds, not by existing funds entertaining themselves. However, an excessive contract proportion also indicates heavy market leverage. 24-hour short liquidations amount to over a billion USD, with strong short-squeeze characteristics. Market Perspectives Bullish: Continued ETF inflows and a weaker US dollar environment. After holding above 80,000, the upper target is the 83,000-85,000 resistance level, indicating institutional allocation logic remains effective. Bearish risk: Historical selling pressure is piling up around 80,000; part of this rally comes from short liquidation, not all from new spot buying; Once ETF inflows slow and U.S. Treasury data reverses, leveraged positions will quickly flee, making sharp pullbacks and chasing overbought stocks extremely risky. #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？
The AI hype contest has set a new record again.
Anthropic is preparing to present investors with a $30 trillion market opportunity in its IPO prospectus.
What does $30 trillion mean? The global GDP in 2025 is expected to be around $115 trillion. But this $30 trillion is just a theoretical ceiling, not an actual revenue forecast. The real figure is—Anthropic expects revenue of about $190 to $200 billion by 2028, which is 0.6% of $30 trillion. The space is indeed huge, but not even 1% has been captured yet.
The significance of this for the crypto world is not about Anthropic itself. When an AI company can claim a $30 trillion TAM, the entire sector's ceiling is being systemically re-evaluated. AI projects in crypto with real business support will benefit, but pure concept speculation will become increasingly difficult. Those who only hype will be rapidly eliminated in this round of standard upgrades.
The big market is now volatile; the more money burned in the AI sector, the more expensive computing power becomes. As the most fundamental expression of computing power, the long-term narrative of the big market will only get stronger.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Let's talk about US debt. First of all, 40 trillion is really not a small amount.
Moreover, just like a snowball rolling bigger and bigger, with annual deficits, even if the interest rate is 0, the snowball keeps growing; the interest rate only determines whether it grows fast or faster.
Why hasn't it crashed yet? Because interest rates were low in previous years, making old debt cheap, but those are about to mature soon, and new debt is expensive. This buffer period is roughly about 3 years.
One reason for the big increase is that AI has also issued a lot of debt, competing with the government for funds, which has driven up US debt. As a result, the 30-year US Treasury yield has pushed to a 19-year high at 5.3%.
AI-issued debt has taken about a quarter of the government's share, making government borrowing more expensive, which hurts both itself and the government.
The government has a few options:
1) Direct QE, printing money to solve the problem. The person in charge of the Fed, Powell, is historically the most opposed to printing money, showing his integrity; plus, printing money directly causes inflation.
2) Intentionally crashing the stock market to reduce inflation and interest rates? Almost impossible.
3) Just dragging it out? The drag tactic is unlikely to work; short-term debt has already hit borrowing limits, and long-term debt is being taken by AI.
4) The most likely is changing the rules to have banks buy government bonds, creating a buyer. In the end, borrowing the phrase from the Ming Dynasty, "make the people suffer a bit," letting inflation slightly exceed interest rates, so the actual purchasing power of money in your bank slowly shrinks. This shrinkage quietly repays the government's debt. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 ZEC is a position opened by two traders together, with a total holding size of $455,168, the largest single position being $411,996 at 10x leverage, and another $43,173 at 5x leverage, with an average price of 757.77.
It looks like a multi-person resonance, but in reality, it's just putting all the chips on the same side. When it profits, it’s indeed fierce; when it’s wrong, it hurts just as much. The market never favors this kind of crowd play.
This kind of position fears two things the most: first, chasing in emotionally; second, stubbornly holding on when the direction turns wrong. With high leverage, even a slight volatility can wipe out your principal before you see any profit.
It’s not that you can’t go long on ZEC, the problem is you have to first figure out if you can withstand the shakeout. If you can’t and still force it, no matter how large your position is, it’s just an amplifier that magnifies greed and mistakes.
A veteran trader’s advice: a large position size doesn’t mean a high win rate, and high leverage doesn’t mean you’re smarter than the market.
Cut losses when you should, don’t wait for forced liquidation to teach you a lesson. Jackson Hole is approaching, can Waller clarify the policy path?
I believe the real highlight of this Jackson Hole is not whether Waller will directly announce a rate hike in September, but whether he can provide the market with a clear "policy reaction function."
Currently, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are very obvious. The July FOMC maintained the 3.50%—3.75% range with a 9 to 3 vote, with three officials advocating for an immediate rate hike; the meeting minutes also showed that if inflation continues to exceed the target, more officials believe further tightening may be necessary.
Just before Jackson Hole, Boston Fed President Collins again sent a hawkish signal: if future data does not prove that inflation continues to decline, the Fed may need to raise rates soon.
So what the market really lacks now is not "hawkish voices," but where Waller himself stands.
I think it is very likely he will not directly give a "September rate hike" answer.
This relates to Waller's own style of policy communication.
He has never liked giving the market overly explicit forward guidance and prefers to let policy follow the data. After the July meeting, he also did not provide a clear interest rate path.
Therefore, what is more likely to appear this time is:
If inflation does not continue to decline → policy needs to remain restrictive, and further rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
If employment deteriorates significantly and inflation continues to cool → then there is room to reconsider easing.
In other words, Waller may not tell the market "whether to hike or not in September," but will tell the market:
What kind of data would force him to raise rates.
This is actually more important than giving a specific timeline.
The most critical contradiction now is between "inflation" and "employment."
Currently, core PCE remains significantly above the 2% target, while the labor market has not completely stalled. Meanwhile, factors such as oil prices, tariffs, and AI investment may continue to put pressure on inflation.
So Waller faces a very typical policy dilemma:
High inflation → afraid to cut rates.
Weak employment → afraid to raise rates lightly.
High long-term US Treasury yields → cannot ignore financial conditions.
And this is why Jackson Hole is especially important—the market hopes Waller will explain:
Under what conditions will the Fed tolerate inflation continuing above 2%, and under what conditions will it hike again?
For BTC, this speech may be more important than a single data point.
If Waller signals:
"Inflation continues to decline, we can wait for data confirmation"
then the market will lower September rate hike expectations again, easing pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, and BTC, gold, and other risk/hard assets may gain support.
But if he says:
"If inflation does not continue to approach 2%, further tightening must be considered"
then the market will reprice:
September rate hike → Treasury yields rise → dollar strengthens → BTC faces short-term pressure.
Especially now that BTC is already in a high range, if macro policy expectations turn hawkish again, volatility may be amplified.
So this time, don’t just listen to what Waller says.
I suggest paying attention to three details:
① Whether he clearly acknowledges that inflation is still the primary risk.
② Whether he gives clear conditions for "continuing to hike."
③ Whether he downplays the market’s single bet on a September rate cut/hike.
If all three signals lean hawkish, BTC at high levels should guard against a significant expectation adjustment.
If Waller instead emphasizes that data is improving and does not give clear conditions for further hikes, the market may interpret this as:
"Hawkishness is just an option, not the current baseline path."
This would be more friendly to risk assets.
In short: Jackson Hole may not give a "hike or not in September" answer, but Waller is likely to provide a set of judgment criteria. What the market needs most now is not a fixed date, but to know—under what circumstances will the Fed hike, and under what circumstances will it continue to wait. This answer is the key to determining whether BTC can continue to break upward in the next phase. $BTC #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Wash is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole this Friday, making his first appearance as Fed Chair.
The July meeting held steady, but there were three votes against a rate hike, and internal disputes have already erupted. More importantly, Wash said nothing clear after the meeting—no direction, no framework—leaving the market completely confused.
If he doesn’t say something concrete this time, the market will only continue to guess wildly—will there be a hike in September or not? What data counts as a hard indicator for a rate hike?
When it comes to Bitcoin $BTC, the market isn’t afraid of rate hikes; it’s afraid of not knowing what you’re thinking. If Wash keeps dodging the issue, long-term rates will keep rising, and BTC will inevitably fluctuate along. If he can clarify the reaction logic, it would actually be a reassuring sign.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Trump's good friend Wash is very unlikely to provide a clear interest rate path or timetable at this Jackson Hole meeting, instead opting to "outline the macro framework and institutional principles" rather than "offer definitive forward guidance."
As Wash's debut at Jackson Hole after taking over as Fed Chair, the market eagerly hopes for an anti-inflation roadmap and policy benchmark, but multiple deep constraints mean he tends to maintain strategic ambiguity and a strong reliance on data.
Why is Wash unable to provide a clear interest rate path?
A firm opposition to "nanny-style" forward guidance philosophy, Wash has advocated since taking office for a "quieter Fed," repeatedly stating he is unwilling to "feed" Wall Street with overly detailed path forecasts. He believes forward guidance overly restricts monetary policy flexibility and distorts asset pricing mechanisms.
The "two-way squeeze" of the inflation anchor and long-end rates
Inflation has remained above the 2% target for years; prematurely releasing a dovish path would directly undermine the Fed's credibility in fighting inflation.
The Treasury's debt issuance is focused on the short end and advancing buybacks, while long-end U.S. Treasury yields and term premiums remain under pressure. If Wash releases an overly hawkish tightening path, long-end Treasuries and highly leveraged fiscal positions will face severe interest repricing shocks 🤑
Tonight, gold, U.S. stocks, and crypto markets are united‼️
$BTC $ETH For $BTC, low volatility feels more like a buildup of strength rather than exhaustion. On August 26, the PCE and GDP data will be released, followed by the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27. With these macro catalysts lined up, both bulls and bears are reluctant to take heavy positions before the events. Holding positions steady and reduced trading volume are typical signs of the market holding its breath, waiting for direction confirmation. Once the data or Powell's statements provide a signal, the compressed volatility could quickly be unleashed.
For $ETH, the underlying tone of low volatility is much more dangerous. ETF inflows are stagnating, DeFi activity remains sluggish, and on-chain gas fees have been persistently low — these are not signs of waiting, but a real contraction on the demand side. BTC's volume shrinkage is big players waiting for the wind, while ETH's volume shrinkage reflects the absence of marginal buyers: no new funds are willing to price its volatility.
In other words, the calm on August 16 was a stillness before the bowstring is fully drawn for BTC, but it might be a deserted coldness for ETH. Judging the market outlook requires looking beyond price volatility itself and focusing on where liquidity is coming from. The upcoming two-week macro window may first answer BTC's questions; for ETH to get out of the mire, it likely needs more than just a macro tailwind — it needs the on-chain ecosystem to tell a compelling story that attracts capital again.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ $xNVDA Today is Nvidia's critical day, with the Q2 fiscal year 2027 earnings report releasing after the U.S. market closes tonight (early morning Beijing time on August 27).
Wall Street consensus expects revenue of $92 billion, with Jefferies more aggressively forecasting $95 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year. Last quarter was $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 74.9%.
But there's a harsh pattern: Nvidia has beaten expectations in the last four earnings reports, yet the stock price fell after all four. Why? Because expectations were too high, and during the seven consecutive declines, the market had already priced in the "no price increase despite good news" scenario.
Goldman Sachs mentioned three points: earnings will be strong, guidance has room for upward revision, but the stock price may not rise unless three major catalysts are released: improved profitability of hyperscale cloud providers, easing of capital cycle risks, and large-scale buybacks and dividends.
Servers equipped with Nvidia AI chips will see prices rise by over 15%. Major customers for Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell shipments next year have already been notified. This indicates demand is not the issue; the problem lies in market confidence in valuation.
Trading strategy: don't bet on direction before the earnings report. An oversold rebound after seven consecutive declines can happen anytime, but once the earnings report is out, the direction becomes clear. Look at the data: revenue exceeding $92 billion + guidance over $108 billion = good news, stock price may rebound; below expectations = prepare for an eighth consecutive decline.
For those wanting to play, either take a light position before the earnings or wait for the data to decide the direction. Don't catch a falling knife before the earnings.BTC just touched $81,238, then quickly dropped back to around $79,000. The two most familiar phrases in the market immediately appeared: one side shouting "Bull return quickly," the other saying "bull trap ends." I think both sides were too early to shout. Over the past week, BTC rose about 22.7%, with a net inflow of about $1.92 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and over $4 billion of crypto short positions liquidated. Putting these three numbers together makes the story easy to understand: first, real money entered, then short sellers were forced to buy back, and finally thin liquidity amplified the gains. The problem lies right here. Short squeezes are like fireworks—bright when exploding, but they're not power plants and can't supply electricity every day. After the shorts that should have exploded, whether the market can move forward depends on whether anyone will continue to hold spot positions during pullbacks. $80,000 is not the answer; it's more like a temporary test: the test is not whether the bulls can break through, but whether anyone will keep buying after the break. This rally is not just one person's shout. The weakening dollar and the retreat in long-term Treasury yields have given risk assets a breather; ETF net subscriptions have turned "liquidity improvement" from a macro slogan into visible buying orders. But the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases mainly improves bond market liquidity, not the Fed's reopening of liquidity. Calling it a "mini QE" is somewhat a bit of a fast storytelling. Therefore, I will not announce that a new bull market has been confirmed for now. BTC is returning from the previous high of about $126,000While the United States expands sanctions on Iran, new progress on the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has been reported. These seemingly contradictory pieces of news are actually jointly determining the direction of the next phase of the energy market. On August 25, the U.S. Treasury Department announced an expansion of economic sanctions on Iran, adding measures targeting nearly 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, covering sectors such as oil, shipping, gold, aviation, and crypto assets, and further strengthening secondary sanctions pressure on Iran's trade network. However, while the U.S. continues to apply pressure, Iran and Oman are discussing the establishment of a temporary security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz and advancing work to clear mines, creating conditions for the gradual resumption of shipping. On August 25 alone, only five bulk commodity vessels passed through the strait, far below normal levels. This is where the market's real focus lies. Whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume navigation is more important than the sanctions themselves. The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and is one of the world's most important energy transportation channels. Under normal circumstances, about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass through here. Therefore, as long as shipping cannot resume, the market must add a higher "geopolitical risk premium" to crude oil. Currently, Brent crude briefly fell to around $86, and WTI to about $80. The weakening oil prices do not mean the market believes Middle East risks have disappeared; rather, the resumption negotiations have led the market to start betting that the worst-case scenario for energy supply may be behind us. But sanctions and resumption of navigation are actually two different lines. The strategy the U.S. is now adopting is becoming clearer: after reducing military pressure, through financial, oilBTC at $79,000, are you going to chase it?
First, look at the surface: a barrage of positive news, shorts bleeding heavily.
In the past 10 days, BTC surged from 64k to 81k, a 23% weekly increase, with record short liquidations. ETFs have accumulated inflows of $2.7-3 billion in August, the Treasury is buying back long bonds to suppress the dollar, and Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act. The weekly chart just broke above the 50-week moving average, RSI is 80-88 indicating overbought, the direction is right, but the price is frighteningly high.
First thing: ETFs are buying, but the buying momentum is slowing down.
Net inflow was $338 million on August 24, then sharply dropped to $7.5 million on August 25. After 6-7 days of aggressive accumulation, it turned into "slowing down and watching."
Same script: In March 2024, after continuous ETF inflows slowed down, BTC fell from 73k to 56k. In January 2025, the same rhythm, from 108k down to 89k.
Retail investors are still shouting "the bull market is here," but institutions have started waiting for data.
Second thing: The macro window is here, today through Friday is a "pressure chamber."
Today (August 26) 8:30 AM ET: July PCE + Q2 GDP revision
August 27: Nvidia earnings
August 27-29: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting
Friday, August 28: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first keynote speech
PCE expected core YoY 3.3% (steady), GDP second revision expected 1.5%.
If data is soft: dollar falls, BTC pushes to 81,200 again
If data meets expectations: high-level consolidation, wait for Friday
If data is hot: the core logic of this rally—"fiscal easing + devaluation trade"—will be challenged, first hit around 76,500-77,000
Third thing: Two conflicting technical signals have appeared.
Signal A: The trend has indeed strengthened.
The weekly chart just broke above the 50-week moving average (around 77k-80k), the first time since November 2025. CryptoQuant Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 within a week, the highest since the October top last year.
Signal B: But the price is too high.
Daily RSI is 80-88, extremely overbought. Price is nearly 20% above the 50-day moving average (around 66k). On August 25, after hitting 81,200, it closed with a long upper shadow bearish candle—a typical "first stagnation candle after an acceleration phase."
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
ETFs have had 6 consecutive days of net inflows, $2.7-3 billion accumulated in August
Weekly chart above 50-week moving average, mid-term structure strengthening
Treasury buying back long bonds, weak dollar, favorable for risk assets
Shorts liquidated, leverage cleaned, futures positions down to near 5-month lows
On the other side:
Daily RSI 80-88, extremely overbought
August 25 long upper shadow, stagnation signal
ETF buying dropped sharply from $338 million to $7.5 million, slowing down
Double event risk from PCE + Jackson Hole, high volatility
Resistance above: 79,500-80,000 → 81,200-81,300 (August 25 high) → 82,800-84,000 (50-week MA + 0.382 retracement)
Support below: 78,300-78,500 → 76,700-77,300 (50-week EMA) → 73,900-75,000 (trend lifeline)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Reduce existing longs above 79,000 to less than 30%. After PCE data release, wait 15 minutes for candle to stabilize before acting. If data is hot and price breaks below 78,300, lightly short with targets at 77,000/75,000, stop loss at 79,800, quick in and out.
Swing players:
Place buy orders at 77,200 and 74,800, avoid 78,800 which "looks cheap but is actually mid-slope." First batch 20-30% at 76,700-77,300, stop loss 75,800; second batch add to 50-60% at 73,900-75,000, stop loss 72,800.
Breakout chase:
If 4H close above 81,300 and pullback to 80,000-80,500 holds, open longs again, target 82,800-84,000, stop loss below 80,000.
Invalidation line: Daily close below 75,000, August rebound downgraded to oversold bounce, strategy shifts from "buy the dip" to "sell the rally."
BTC now looks like 70k in March 2024—
99% think "ETF is here, it will go straight to 100k," but it consolidated for 8 months before truly breaking out. The direction was right, but those chasing at the top held through the entire summer.
At the moment of breaking 81,200, you will realize:
The direction was right, the timing was wrong, and you still lose money.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At 79,000, do you dare to chase?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 BTC remains the core anchor of the market, with a clear divergence appearing in the crypto market. Currently, about 60% of altcoins are in a downtrend, while $BTC shows stronger resilience around $79.2K, demonstrating clear relative strength compared to $ETH and $SOL. Notably, the spot $BTC ETF has maintained net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with a single-day net inflow of approximately $338M on August 24, indicating that institutional demand remains strong. At the same time, whales c$BTC surged to 81,000 before pulling back—Is this a bull market restart or a short-term short squeeze?
Over the past week, the crypto market has experienced a long-awaited breakout. Bitcoin returned above $80,000 for the first time in three months, reaching a high of $81,237 yesterday, currently trading around $78,900. $ETH rebounded strongly from around $1,900 to the $2,440-$2,460 range, with a weekly gain exceeding 25%. $BNB briefly surpassed $700 yesterday, now trading around $695.
This rally is driven by a triple resonance. On the macro level, U.S. Treasury repo operations doubled to no less than $4 billion each time, with the market betting on a "currency depreciation trade," pushing funds toward supply-constrained gold and Bitcoin. On the regulatory front, the SEC disclosed a new crypto asset regulatory framework, and Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, significantly reducing policy uncertainty. On the capital side, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw net inflows exceeding $2.2 billion over six consecutive days, totaling $2.61 billion for the week.
However, hidden risks lurk amid the frenzy. Nearly $300 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the network in 24 hours. Analysts point out that the initial phase of this rally was driven by large-scale short covering, and whether it can continue depends on whether spot buying can take over.
Tonight's PCE data and the Jackson Hole Symposium will be critical turning points. If inflation exceeds expectations, rising rate hike expectations could reverse market sentiment; if Fed Chair Powell signals dovishness, it could provide new support for the rebound. After this triple positive resonance, is the crypto market restarting a bull run or just a short-term celebration? The answer is about to be revealed.This round of increase, besides ETF funds, is also driven by two macro expectations:
The US dollar weakening temporarily;
The US Treasury expanding the scale of long-term bond repurchases.
Additionally, with the expectation of improved US crypto regulation, funds are buying BTC again.
However, the macro-driven market also carries risks: if the US dollar and US bond yields reverse, BTC may also quickly give back gains.With the Jackson Hole annual meeting approaching, global markets are waiting for Fed Chair Kevin War to send a key signal: Will tightening continue in September, or should we wait and see for now? Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office as Fed Chair at Jackson Hole on August 28. Compared to a regular speech, this time the market is clearly more focused on the Fed's internal divides over the interest rate path. The July meeting ultimately kept rates unchanged by a 9-3 vote, but several officials have already indicated that if inflation persists, rate hikes may still be needed in the future. Inflation remains Wash's biggest constraint Currently, U.S. inflation is still clearly far from the 2% target. In June, PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, core PCE increased 3.3%; July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year. This means that although price pressures are not out of control, they are still far from the level the Fed considers "stable enough." What's more troublesome is that the job market has already started to cool. In July, U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, while the combined employment data for May and June was revised down by 103,000. So Walsh faces a typical policy contradiction: inflation is not low enough, but employment is not strong enough. If rates are cut too early, inflation may flare up again; if rates continue to rise, it could further suppress the already slowing job market. What the market is truly waiting for is not a single "rate hike" or "rate cut" The most important thing at Jackson Hole this time is whether Wash can change the previously vague communication style. Wash had previously leaned toward reductionThe crypto market continues its strong rally, with multiple coins experiencing explosive gains. Overview of mainstream coin trends. BTC: Breaks through the $80,000 mark, up over 4% intraday, with a cumulative gain over 25% over the past week! ETH: Firmly holding above $2,500. SOL: Surging nearly 8%, climbing back above $100. XRP: Outstanding performance, rising over 50% in the past week. The core driving forces behind this strong rally: 1. Improved macro liquidity expectations: The US Treasury has expanded long-term US Treasury repurchases, causing Treasury yields to fall, greatly easing selling pressure on risk assets. 2. Short Liquidation Spiral: Previous short positions have been continuously liquidated, further boosting Bitcoin's upward momentum. Key Risks and Future Signals: Short-term overbought warning: BTC's short-term indicator has entered the overbought zone. Next, focus on whether the $80,000 level can stabilize effectively and whether mainstream altcoins can continue to rise. Key Events This Week: Closely watch the latest speech from the Fed Chair and the upcoming PCE inflation data! #BTC突破80000美元 can it hold the new level $BTC
Currently, BTC is around $78,900, having reached a high of about $80,200 today. What really matters is that it has just ended the previous sideways range of $62k–$67k that lasted about 6 weeks, with a gain of over 20% in the past week. This breakout initially had a clear short squeeze component, but then spot demand started to catch up, and meanwhile, futures open interest actually decreased and the funding rate did not become extremely overheated, which is healthier than a pure high-leverage pump.📊 $XAU Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Long positions controlled the market throughout but leverage declined continuously from 2.53x to 1.89x, with a 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeding $3.05 million, concentration only 18.4%, and short squeeze momentum marginally weakening...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $96.6K $69.2K $27.4K
4 hours $205.6K $155.5K $50.1K
12 hours $562.5K $340.7K $221.9K
24 hours $3.0531M $2.1946M $858.5K
In 1 hour, longs tested control with 2.53x leverage, volume $69.2K; in 4 hours, leverage slightly dropped to 2.34x, volume rose to $155.5K; in 12 hours, leverage further dropped to 1.54x, volume increased to $340.7K, long-short gap rapidly narrowed; in 24 hours, leverage rebounded to 1.89x, liquidation $2.1946M for longs vs. $858.5K for shorts, totaling $3.0531M. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for only 18.4%, indicating very low concentration and continuous long-short competition throughout the day. Long leverage fell from 2.53x to 1.54x then slightly rose to 1.89x, forming a V-shaped oscillation but overall still in a declining trend, with mild short squeeze momentum, direction biased long but with limited advantage. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, direction biased long but avoid blind chasing.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin briefly tested $80,000 before pulling back to consolidate; US economic isolation of Iran failed to push oil prices up; and Anthropic's $30 trillion TAM narrative shocks the largest IPO in history.
₿ BTC Pullback After Breaking $80,000: The Short Squeeze Test Has Just Begun
On August 25, Bitcoin once climbed to $81,257, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. It rose about 23% over the past week, marking the best performance in 2023.
However, the breakout did not hold—Bitcoin then retreated to the $78,000-$79,000 range to consolidate. The catalyst for this rally came from macro factors: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term Treasury buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-off and reigniting "devaluation trades." Last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October last year.
Analysts point out this rally was mainly driven by short squeezes; whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. Around $83,000 lies multiple resistance including the 365-day moving average, liquidation zones, supply zones, and overbought signals—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on spot buying stepping in to replace short covering.
🚢 US Expands Sanctions on Iran: From Military Strikes to "Economic Isolation"
On August 24, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a new round of sanctions aimed at "economic isolation" of Iran, calling the action an "economic Normandy landing day." The sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities listed. Yellen said the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government."
Meanwhile, progress was made in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman agreed to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor and advance mine clearance projects in the strait. However, Iran reiterated that reopening navigation depends on the US fully fulfilling its obligations.
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92/barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase, easing concerns.
🤖 Anthropic Rushes the Largest IPO in History: $30 Trillion TAM Super Narrative
AI company Anthropic expects to tell investors in its IPO prospectus that its total addressable market (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion, higher than SpaceX's previous estimate of $28.5 trillion. The company projects revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028.
The IPO target valuation is about $2 trillion, with fundraising possibly exceeding $100 billion—if realized, it would be the largest IPO in human history. The company may list as early as September or October.
A company only a few years old uses a $30 trillion TAM narrative to justify a $2 trillion valuation—the market is betting not on current profits but on AI's complete restructuring of the enterprise market. When Anthropic's IPO narrative resonates with Bitcoin's "devaluation trade" in the same week—global capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin pulled back to consolidate after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can turn into sustained buying remains uncertain; the US shifted from military strikes to "economic isolation" of Iran, with oil prices falling due to "bad news priced in"; Anthropic's $30 trillion TAM narrative shocks the largest IPO ever, redefining AI valuation limits. XAU contract longs moderately control with 1.89x leverage, cumulative liquidation $3.05 million, concentration only 18.4%, and short squeeze momentum marginally weakening. When devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and AI bubbles converge in the same time window—the market is fiercely repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 BTC broke through 80,000 again, rising 23% last week, marking the largest single-week gain in nearly three years.
There are two driving forces behind this surge: the US Treasury Secretary announced increased long-term bond repurchases, weakening the dollar and lifting both Bitcoin and gold; last week, $BTC ETF net inflows reached $1.92 billion, the strongest in nearly 10 months, and Trump is also pushing for crypto legislation.
However, the data shows some concerns. Short-term holders (cost around 68,700) took profits and transferred over 43,000 BTC to exchanges, the largest profit-taking this year. New whales realized over 1.2 billion in profits in three days, with a single-day record of 614 million. Last week, short liquidations totaled 7.2 billion, indicating this rally was largely driven by a short squeeze.
Whether it can hold depends on whether 70,000 can be defended, and whether this week's PCE and Jackson Hole provide a dovish signal. 83,000 is the first hurdle; only after surpassing it can we look at 85,000-90,000.
Personally, I am short-term bearish; funding rates have soared. After surging to 80,908 last week, it quickly fell back to 77,000, a rehearsal of a leverage liquidation. I placed some short orders and will wait for a pullback to buy back in. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $NVDA Earnings Countdown｜Landing after market close at 4:20 AM Beijing time on August 27.
The market consensus expects revenue of $92 billion, slightly above the company's $91 billion guidance, with the data center business remaining the core growth driver.
What truly determines the market trend is not this quarter's data, but next quarter's earnings guidance, gross margin, and the response to server price hike rumors.
There have been multiple instances of "earnings beat but price drops," indicating expectations are fully priced in.
This earnings report is also a barometer for AI hardware, directly impacting the storage sector including $SNDK, Micron, and Hynix.
- Guidance exceeds expectations → AI chain sentiment recovers, storage sees a rebound window
- Guidance falls short of expectations → Tech sector collectively under pressure, $SNDK further tests 1438 support
Volatility will be intense before and after the earnings; high leverage requires strict position control, do not hold through hard.
#USStocks #AIChip #StorageChip #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $$The US July Core PCE Price Index will be released at 20:30 tonight. This is a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve and will cause significant market fluctuations in the evening session.
Higher than expected → stubborn inflation, bearish for the market.
Meets expectations → market remains stable.
Lower than expected → bullish for risk assets.
Old Li tends to believe this PCE will be more likely flat or slightly higher; the probability of a significant drop is not large. The pressure on Treasury bonds is more about easing debt stress and supporting the market, rather than directly and quickly lowering inflation. Coupled with the resilience of US consumption still present. $BTC $ETH
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Everyone, tonight's NVIDIA earnings report, but let me say a few words: the financial numbers are in the past, the conference call is the future. Let's first look at the clear cards on the table. The company's own guidance is $91 billion (±2%) in revenue and a 75% gross margin. Wall Street expectations are slightly higher, with revenue around $92 billion and EPS around $2.08 to $2.09. The room for market expectations to "exceed expectations" is already very limited. After the options market priced earnings report, stock price fluctuated ± 5.4% to 5.9%, corresponding to a market value exceeding $280 billion that could be repriced. The stock price fell for seven consecutive days before the earnings report, indicating that institutions are already hedging in advance. The five signals you really need to hear during the call: First, the quality of AI cloud orders. Are the expansion of new players like CoreWeave and Nebius driven by financing or real revenue? In August, NVIDIA partnered with BlackRock and Goldman Sachs to launch a $500 billion AI computing power financing platform. If customer utilization increases, financing becomes an accelerator; Utilization rates remain stagnant, financing is debt. Second, can Rubin connect to Blackwell? Shipping two generations of products together solidifies revenue visibility. The warning signs are management's excessive talk about system complexity and the client's data center not being prepared—this statement is basically a tactful way to push revenue backward. Third, independent revenue from Vera CPUs. Last quarter delivered visibility close to $20 billion. NVIDIA is entering the Intel and AMD markets, adding another growth curve for CPUs. Fourth, can gross margin be maintained?At 16:00 Beijing time this Friday (August 26), crypto options giant Deribit will see the expiration of 81,700 Bitcoin options worth $6.44 billion. This is not just a simple settlement but a close-quarters battle between bulls and bears at the $80,000 mark.
This week, Bitcoin has surged like it was fueled by Red Bull, climbing from $62,000 all the way to $80,000. The most embarrassed? Those market makers who sold call options.
Currently, a 0.83 put/call ratio clearly tells you that the vast majority of the market is betting on a rise. And with the price soaring, many previously absurd call options have now become in-the-money.
The current situation is that market makers are sprinting on a treadmill.
Because the price is rising too fast, to hedge risks, market makers are forced to buy more BTC in the spot market to balance their positions. This cycle of price increase—market makers buying to hedge—leading to further price increases is what we commonly call a gamma squeeze.
*Within a price range of ±5% (approximately $76,000–$84,000), there is over $500 million in notional value accumulated. This means that any slight movement around the Friday settlement will be magnified exponentially.
The most concentrated strike prices are firmly stuck at $75,000 and $80,000.
*By Friday afternoon, bulls and bears may repeatedly tug-of-war around the $80,000 level Many people are shorting $BTC and might suffer heavy losses. This rally is different from the previous two rebounds after declines; it is driven by real spot capital rather than leverage-driven short squeezes. All indicators show this is a very healthy bull market trend, at least a small bull market. Currently, big players are aggressively going long, while retail investors haven't FOMOed yet and are even shorting, which means there is still room to rise.
The current pullback is just a correction for the daily overbought condition, using 4-12h divergences for the correction. The larger timeframe is still a very strong uptrend, and market makers will keep the price below 80k until August 28.
September 15 is a critical date; after that, the market will decide whether to continue the bull run or revert to a bear market pattern. With such a large inflow of capital now, a big drop is unlikely unless the main players deliberately trigger a crash by killing longs, but even then, it will be quickly recovered.
Right now, everyone is focused on crypto and gold. Previously hot AI hardware and some persistently weak big tech and consumer stocks can be bought when no one is paying attention. Yesterday, I started a position in McDonald's and am watching Nike, Meta, ORCL, INTC, and Google. Most of these are hard to pump for others, but a crazy short squeeze will definitely happen in the future. Find the right timing, enter on the left side, and if it breaks key levels, stop loss; if not, hold on and feel secure.