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This time at Jackson Hole, what Wash most needs to provide is not a hawkish or dovish statement but a reaction function that the market can understand. What investors are really worried about now is: what if inflation is a bit higher? What if employment is a bit weaker? What if long-term bond yields keep rising? If every question is answered on the spot, the market will fill in the blanks itself. And when the market fills in the blanks, it usually gets expensive. Bonds will move first, followed by the dollar and gold, and then BTC and tech stocks will be dragged along. I think the core of Wash's speech this time is not to soothe emotions but to draw a line. Which data will trigger a rate hike, which kind of financial stress will make the Fed step back—if these are not made clear, every macro data release afterward will turn into a guessing game. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The U.S. government and capital markets talk big about the bill, but in reality, they are fully betting on AI. They are continuously channeling funds into AI and have also invested in companies like rare earths, Intel, and IBM, making banks' balance sheets carry more AI assets.
On the other hand, the U.S. government also wants to direct funds toward stablecoins. The inflow of stablecoins during the crypto bull market can boost U.S. Treasury demand and improve the current Federal Reserve balance sheet.
Increasing holdings of AI assets is the main task, bearing future development and returns. The secondary task is to issue policies supporting crypto to direct funds into stablecoins, using stablecoins to boost U.S. Treasury demand.
Therefore, once the bull market starts, I believe there is no turning back. Crypto assets have the responsibility to finance U.S. Treasuries, like a small horse pulling a big cart. If policy can drive hundreds of billions of dollars into stablecoins without spending money, entering U.S. Treasuries, this is the best solution and also the cause of this bull market. $ETH $BTC $SOL From the order flow, a large number of limit ask passive trades can be seen.
BN's CVD high points show weak divergence.
Then the aggregated CVD highs appear normal, but the lows show absorption divergence.
CB continues to buy,
but BN's trading volume is even larger.
CVD above 100K shows a weak state,
accompanied by a large amount of buy delta, corresponding to passive trades on limit asks.
Of course, some aggressive shorts also entered at today's low.
The buyers and sellers are in a tug of war; we just watch.
In terms of operation, the current market shows significant buyer weakness and extreme supply suppression when pushing toward the 80,000 high. Although the price once broke the critical level, demand failed to sustain effectively, causing many buy orders to be passively executed within the upper limit ask zone. Derivatives data and large capital flows both show clear high-point divergence. Overall assessment indicates that the market's momentum to continue upward at the current high is exhausted, with clear signs of chip distribution phase. The probability of a deep correction sharply increases, so the current strategy should focus on defense and locking in profits. Gamblers, saints, and those preparing to reset after liquidation, let's throw the research reports straight into the trash and break down tonight's Nvidia earnings report in gambler's language. Remember our traders' iron rule: don't read the news, watch candlestick charts; don't guess bulls or shorts, just guess Dog Broker. 🎰 Tonight's "Casino Rules" (Beijing time 04:20 tomorrow) The options market is betting on a 5.4% fluctuation ± tonight, meaning $280 billion is bouncing up. This isn't a financial report, this is the Macau turmoil. Let's not think about "value investing"—we just want to think about three things: which side to buy? When to exit? Where to cry if you get hit to cut losses? Nvidia will release its Q2 earnings after the U.S. market closes tonight (August 26), with extremely high market expectations: · Revenue: Wall Street expects about $92 billion, nearly doubling year-on-year · Earnings per share (EPS): Expected about $2.08-2.09 · Option pricing: Stock price fluctuates ±5.4% after the earnings report, corresponding to about $280 billion in market cap volatility The key issue is not "beating expectations," but "explosive growth." After Nvidia's last four earnings reports, its stock price has all fallen, though each time it has exceeded expectations. The market now wants Q3 revenue guidance to break above $103-105 billion and maintain gross margin around 75%—below this figure is "failing." Additionally, Goldman Sachs warned that if the three major catalysts are not implemented, the stock price may still fall; The market is also watching the progress of Vera Rubin architecture's fall shipments and the definition of the $500 billion AI financing plan. 2. Impact on Memory Chip Trends Storage ChipsNVIDIA's earnings report tonight presents a question that is no longer "can revenue continue to grow," but rather how much of this growth comes from independent, sustainable end demand. The market's expectations have already reached an awkward level: ordinary beats might still not be enough; what truly determines the narrative is whether the new generation Rubin can successfully take over, and where customers' money for buying chips is coming from. NVIDIA has officially confirmed it will release its fiscal 2027 Q2 results tomorrow morning Beijing time. Last quarter, the company’s revenue reached $81.6 billion, an 85% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue at $75.2 billion, up 92% year-over-year; the company’s guidance for Q2 revenue is around $91 billion with a 2% margin of error, explicitly excluding China data center compute revenue from the guidance. Meanwhile, the Vera Rubin platform is entering the next product cycle, and the market is beginning to test whether the transition from Blackwell to Rubin will encounter delivery, gross margin, or customer budget gaps. What I am more concerned about is another layer of change: NVIDIA is no longer just collecting chip payments at the end of the supply chain; it is also involved in data center, power, and customer financing arrangements. Previously, the company partnered with several large financial institutions to build a compute financing platform aimed at mobilizing over $500 billion in third-party capital over the long term; Reuters also pointed out that investors are questioning whether some transactions form a cycle of "NVIDIA helping customers finance, and customers then purchasing NVIDIA equipment." This cannot be directly equated with$OKB is now $114, down 3.00% in 24 hours, with a high of 118.22, a low of 110.88, a trading volume of 15.6 million, and an RSI of 77.8.
It is currently stuck in the historical resistance zone of 100–120, moving sideways without much change, having pulled back from 118 to 113. To break through, it must see increased volume.
But honestly, among platform tokens, I am most optimistic about OKB for these reasons: a total supply permanently locked at 21 million, directly comparable to BTC's scarcity; X Layer's TVL has grown nearly 10 times in half a year, surpassing 100 million; Circle has integrated native USDC; the NYSE parent company ICE has also made a strategic investment in OKX, with a valuation of 25 billion. This line is stronger than other platform tokens.
Risks must also be mentioned: 100–120 is a dense trading resistance zone, and rising futures positions indicate increasing leverage, so a real pullback could be severe.
My approach: strong fundamentals but short-term consolidation. Buy above 110, reduce positions if it breaks below 100, and watch for higher targets if volume breaks above 120. I see the range as 100–120. Holders of OKB need a bit more patience.A large part of this $BTC rally is undoubtedly driven by short squeezes.
Since the initial high on Friday, the actual accumulation has been quite steady, and spot trading volume has been relatively high.
Open interest continues to trend downward, and it seems no one is willing to push the price higher in this area.
If we continue to see spot inflows from (ETF) funds and the price keeps hovering in this range, that will be a signal worth watching in the coming days.
Shorts have been squeezed, so you need strong spot buying to keep the party going. There is spot buying, but the price also needs to keep following through, or the momentum will stall. Looking back at the storage sector now, I see that the significance of the story is no longer much. It is entering a sideways bottom zone to digest; fluctuations are normal, but the noticeable point is that it cannot go deeper, nor can it break out. SanDisk, Micron, Hynix are all in the same state, short-term influenced by capital flow and sentiment, but the story of AI, HBM demand, and the supply chain#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ Folks, the Anthropic IPO story keeps getting bigger.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Anthropic is preparing to disclose to IPO investors that its total addressable market exceeds $30 trillion, even higher than the $28.5 trillion proposed when SpaceX went public. This figure represents the theoretical revenue potential assuming the company captures all possible demand, not an actual revenue forecast.
Correspondingly, Anthropic expects revenue of about $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028, which is only about 0.6% of this market size. In other words, the company only needs to capture a tiny fraction of this huge market to support the current valuation expectations.
But where are the boundaries of this figure? The reasonableness of the $30 trillion TAM depends on whether enterprise software and knowledge work demand can truly be restructured by AI, and whether Anthropic's model differentiation, customer retention, and pricing power can translate into real market share. If computing power and R&D investments remain high, can this vast market space support profits and cash flow, rather than just inflating the IPO valuation?
Let's wait for the public IPO documents to see the details. For now, don't get carried away by the $30 trillion figure. Share your thoughts in the comments on whether you think this TAM is realistic. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $ANTHROPIC First, let me mention a pretty interesting phenomenon. During the recent rally, the funding rate occasionally turned negative, indicating that shorts once dominated. But looking at the recent daily chart, since hitting the 58,000 low, the funding rate has basically been rising steadily, showing that long positions have been continuously increasing. This trend actually started quietly forming from the 84,000 peak. The liquidation heatmap shows a lot of liquidity stacked on both the top and bottom sides, which is quite normal given such a big rally.
More importantly, there's this—the 365-day moving average. Almost every bear market ends with the same script: the first attempt to break above it always gets rejected; there has never been a direct successful breakout. In 2019, it was the same—first rejected, then a real breakout; in 2022 it was even clearer—after being pushed back by this line, the price struggled for two whole weeks before a big drop followed. Now the price is approaching this line again, and according to historical patterns, it will most likely be rejected once more. However, if the weekly candle can close above this line, that would be a strong confirmation signal that the bear market is over. I will be closely watching this line in the coming weeks.
Additionally, the two-week MACD has formed a golden cross. This signal has appeared a few times historically—the last time after the golden cross, the price surged directly; the 2022 bear market bottom also saw the same golden cross, which then triggered a trend reversal; and in 2020, the price took off right after the golden cross. This signal doesn't mean an immediate rise, but it indicates a clear momentum shift on a higher time frame, which is worth noting.
Technically, we are still in a bear market. As long as the weekly EMA ribbon isn't broken and the 365-day moving average isn't firmly held above, we can't say we've entered a bull market. But we are definitely in a dangerous zone, getting closer to a turning point. My overall view hasn't changed—I am still willing to hold positions, and if confirmation signals come out later, I plan to hold all the way to new highs. I mentioned in an earlier video that the bear market bottom is most likely between 58,000 and 47,000. The 58,000 level has indeed acted as support, and if the price goes lower, I won't rule out watching several levels below.
We've talked many times before about the EMA ribbon—historically, there are often several false breakouts before a real one. This time, we have to wait for the weekly candle to close above to confirm; no premature conclusions. Yesterday's video also discussed the 200-day moving average, which always gets retested after a breakout—feel free to check it out if interested. Ethereum has been quite stable, holding above the high end of its range and doing fairly well. That's all for today; if you found this useful, remember to like and follow.帆啊交易员原名帆少，被一重大佬打假后消失，劣行有骗投资人钱亏光后跑路，骗粉丝开单赚手续费，制造虚假人设等。前几天又爆仓一次，爆仓前转走几十万人民币用来偿还部分债务，企图用剩余资金翻身结果又爆仓。目前在粉丝群向粉丝索要500u作为初始资金，号称亏了全赔。实则亏了就踢人。短期内帆筹集不到资金，证明我错很简单，就是他接下来一段时间都不可能用几十万资金开仓了，因为已经被许多人拉黑借不到钱了This surge is not a fundamental change but a pulse rally jointly driven by macroeconomic tailwinds, short squeeze liquidations, and a short-term cluster of ETF funds. 1. Macro trigger: The U.S. Treasury doubled its repurchase of long-term bonds, causing U.S. Treasury yields to decline and the dollar to weaken. The market initiated a "devaluation resistance trade," with Bitcoin and gold both pulled by capital inflows. This is a broad risk asset rally driven by liquidity easing, not a Bitcoin-specific fundamental boost. 2. Regulation is only an expectation, not realized: Trump's meetings with crypto executives and promotion of the CLARITY Act are merely friendly signals. Actual legislation and formal SEC rules are still far off. The current rise is a "premium on expectations," and if policies fall short, gains could be quickly given back. 3. The biggest driver: short-squeeze liquidations. A large volume of short positions accumulated during the prior long consolidation phase. After price started moving, cascading liquidations occurred, with passive buy orders pushing prices sharply higher. Weekly gains exceeded 23%, and within 24 hours, BTC long and short liquidations surpassed $110 million. This kind of liquidation-driven rally naturally lacks sustained momentum. 4. ETF funds are short-term liquidity, not long-term committed buying. Spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in one week, a 10-month high, but funds are highly concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT, and much is arbitrage capital rather than long-term allocation. Once inflows slow, buying support will immediately weaken. 2. Current market real data (August 26) Current price near $78,500, with an early session high touching $81,200 before quickly retreating: -$TRUMP went long at 1.622 this morning, actually watching that the 1.60 whole number level didn't break and the 4-hour bottom fractal formed before moving.
Now at 2.259, the rise feels good, but the volume is a bit scattered at the high level, RSI has also pulled into the overbought area, and the short-term deviation is too large, so a sharp pullback could happen anytime.
Don't be greedy, reduce positions and watch the market, move the stop loss above the cost. Honestly: playing this kind of emotionally-driven coin, technical analysis is just an aid; what really saves you is the pre-set stop loss and the habit of halving positions. $BTC $ETH The key distinction here is between realized selling and overhanging supply. A team-linked address reportedly sold about 1.1M TRUMP for 2.94M USDC, while its roughly 3.837M TRUMP transfer to centralized exchanges is not proven to have been fully sold.
That uncertainty may matter as much as the completed sale: buyers must price both current flow and the risk of additional distribution. If token movements pause and volume recovers, the pressure may prove temporary; further transfers or USDC withdrawals would strengthen the bearish signal. Not advice, just analysis.
#TRUMPSellPressure📊 $SKHYNIX Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
After a short-term extreme monopoly by the bulls, their advantage collapsed, and within 24 hours the bears took over with a slight edge. Total liquidations exceeded $840,000, with a concentration as high as 74.8%, forming an inverted V-shaped exhaustion pattern...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $20,400 $20,400 $0
4 hours $88,600 $88,500 $147.54
12 hours $633,300 $313,000 $320,300
24 hours $846,300 $387,900 $458,300
In 1 hour, bulls monopolized (bears at 0), with a scale of $20,400, a tentative control; in 4 hours, bulls crushed with an extreme 600x dominance, volume soaring to $88,500; in 12 hours, bears slightly reversed with a 1.02x ratio, volume surged to $320,300, bulls and bears completely balanced; in 24 hours, bears slightly expanded to 1.18x, liquidations at $458,300 vs. bulls' $387,900, totaling $846,300. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 74.8% of the 24-hour total, a moderately high concentration—bulls completed most harvesting within 12 hours, bears suppressed with a slight advantage in the latter 12 hours. Bull multiples crashed from an extreme 600x to being reversed by bears at 1.18x, short squeeze momentum completely exhausted. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction has turned bearish, the strength is very weak, favor more watching and less trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin briefly tested the $80,000 level before pulling back to consolidate; US economic isolation of Iran failed to push oil prices higher; and Anthropic challenges the largest IPO in history with a $30 trillion TAM narrative.
₿ BTC Pulls Back After Breaking $80,000: The Short Squeeze Is Over, the Test Has Just Begun
On August 25, Bitcoin once climbed to $81,257, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. It rose about 23% over the past week, marking the best performance in 2023.
However, the breakout did not hold—Bitcoin then retreated to the $78,000-$79,000 range to consolidate. The catalyst for this rally came from macro factors: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond buybacks to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-offs and reigniting "devaluation trades." Last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since October last year.
Analysts point out that this rally was mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen. Around $83,000, multiple resistances exist including the 365-day moving average, liquidation zones, supply zones, and overbought signals—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering.
🚢 US Expands Sanctions on Iran: From Military Strikes to "Economic Isolation"
On August 24, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a new round of sanctions aimed at "economic isolation" of Iran, calling the action an "economic D-Day." The sanctions expanded to five sectors including aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with about 60 entities listed. Yellen said the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government."
Meanwhile, progress was made in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman agreed to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor and advance mine clearance projects in the strait. However, Iran reiterated that reopening navigation depends on the US fully fulfilling its obligations.
After the sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell rather than rose—Brent crude dropped to about $92 per barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks, and the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase, easing concerns.
🤖 Anthropic Rushes to the Largest IPO in History: A $30 Trillion TAM Super Narrative
AI company Anthropic expects to tell investors in its IPO prospectus that its total addressable market (TAM) exceeds $30 trillion, higher than SpaceX's previous estimate of $28.5 trillion. The company projects revenues of $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028.
The IPO target valuation is about $2 trillion, with fundraising possibly exceeding $100 billion—if realized, it would be the largest IPO in human history. The company may list as early as September or October.
A company only a few years old uses a $30 trillion TAM narrative to challenge a $2 trillion valuation—the market is betting not on current profits but on AI's complete restructuring of the enterprise market. When Anthropic's IPO narrative resonates with Bitcoin's "devaluation trade" in the same week—global capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin pulled back to consolidate after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can turn into sustained buying remains uncertain; the US shifted from military strikes to "economic isolation" of Iran, and oil prices fell due to "bad news already priced in"; Anthropic challenges the largest IPO in history with a $30 trillion TAM narrative, redefining AI valuation limits. SKHYNIX contract bulls exhausted from an extreme 600x to a slight 1.18x reversal by bears, with total liquidations of $840,000, and short squeeze momentum fully exhausted. When devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and AI bubbles converge in the same time window—the market is fiercely repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视
NVIDIA has done three things this month that, when combined, suggest it may be building an entire AI empire, no longer just a GPU chip company.
NVIDIA is reported to have strategically increased its investment in the rising AI search star Perplexity. The hardware giant’s deep integration with downstream killer applications has once again pushed the "AI capital closed loop" into the spotlight.
The deep business logic behind this ecosystem investment strategy is worth pondering:
Chip leader driving sales through investment: NVIDIA locks in long-term procurement of its GPUs by directly investing in high-quality AI application unicorns, firmly building a software-hardware integrated ecosystem moat.
Disruptor challenging traditional search engines: Perplexity, with its real-time conversational search, is rapidly eroding the traditional search market. NVIDIA’s alliance accelerates the explosive adoption of generative AI in consumer and office scenarios.
Market scrutiny of the cyclical investment model: The model of selling chips with one hand and investing in customers with the other can quickly mature the ecosystem in the short term but has also triggered Wall Street’s rigorous scrutiny of the AI industry’s true independent profitability.
In this ecosystem battle deeply tied to tech giants, do you believe AI search will completely disrupt Google, or is this just a capital game before the bubble bursts?
$NVDA $GOOGL #英伟达 #Perplexity #AI搜索 #人工智能 #科技股 BTC surpasses $80,000, but the real main theme might not be "the bull market is back," rather the "devaluation trade" is restarting. On August 25, BTC stood above $80,000 again after 102 days, ETH returned above $2,500, and SOL briefly broke through $100. More notably: gold and BTC strengthened simultaneously, while Nvidia fell for seven consecutive days, and the Nasdaq remained under pressure.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM According to Russian media citing sources from the Pakistani military and Iranian security departments, the US and Iran have reached a consensus on the terms of a ceasefire agreement, but the agreement has not yet been formally signed and implemented, pending further confirmation. This news is generally positive for the market, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices while benefiting global risk assets and the crypto sector.
Specific impacts:
1. Crude oil faces significant short-term bearish pressure. The US-Iran ceasefire will greatly reduce the risk of supply disruptions in Middle Eastern crude oil. The news mentions that the agreement includes free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran and Oman are preparing to establish a temporary maritime transport corridor. As a result, WTI crude oil briefly dropped to around $81, and Brent crude fell back to $88.6. If shipping through the strait stabilizes, oil prices are likely to further decline to the $75–80 range.
2. Gold faces short-term pressure as the risk premium from geopolitical tensions gradually fades, and earlier long positions are being closed for profit-taking. However, medium- to long-term support factors such as the US dollar trend, inflation, and fiscal pressures remain, so the medium-term fundamental logic for gold has not been completely undermined.
3. US stocks see clear benefits. The decline in oil prices will ease global inflationary pressures, further fueling market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, directly benefiting the technology growth sector. $BTC $SOL $ETH #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #OpenAI's Self-Developed Chip Debuts, Inference Cost Becomes Key
The boss has something to say
OpenAI has released a chip called Jalapeño.
Sam Altman posted on X: "We made a chip, and it's very fast." Not a PPT claim, but based on real test data.
Performance competes directly with NVIDIA
Jalapeño is an inference-only chip, not for training. The tests used SemiAnalysis's InferenceX public benchmark, running three models: GPT-OSS 120B, DeepSeek R1 670B, and Kimi K2.5 1T.
The data is solid. AI throughput per watt is 1.5 to 1.9 times that of the comparison systems, with end-to-end latency reduced by 28% to 59%. In high-interaction scenarios, performance is 2.1 to 4.1 times higher.
By model: On GPT-OSS 120B, peak throughput per kilowatt is 1.9 times higher than GB200. On DeepSeek R1, throughput per watt is 1.7 times higher than GB300. On Kimi K2.5, throughput per watt is 1.5 times higher than GB300. Third-party SemiAnalysis measured single-card throughput at 1459 tokens/s, while GB200 only reached 535, a 2.7x difference. End-to-end latency for Jalapeño is just 1.65 seconds, compared to nearly 6 seconds for GB300.
Power consumption is manageable
Rated power is 700 watts, with test load sustained below 550 watts. GB300 consumes 1400 watts. Although OpenAI normalizes power consumption by chip packaging, the direction is clear.
Jalapeño is equipped with 6 sets of HBM4 memory, totaling 216GB capacity and 15.4TB/s bandwidth. It uses TSMC's N3P process, with design to tape-out completed in just 9 months.
Cost is the real killer feature
Broadcom CEO Chen Fuyang said early tests show inference costs are about 50% lower than current mainstream AI GPUs. OpenAI handles hundreds of millions of API calls daily; cutting token cost by 50% saves astronomical amounts annually.
OpenAI is integrating the entire stack
Jalapeño is not sold externally, only for internal use. OpenAI is building a full-stack closed loop of models, software, chips, and data centers. Notably, OpenAI's own large models participated in the chip design process. AI helping design AI chips—once this loop is established, iteration speed will accelerate.
The second generation is in late development, and the third generation has started concept design. Small-scale deployment is planned by year-end, with expansion in 2027. NVIDIA remains a partner; the multi-vendor strategy continues.
Financials are a drag
Jalapeño's technology is impressive, but OpenAI's financials look less so. Q2 revenue was 6.7 billion, up only 18% quarter-over-quarter, compared to 35.7% in Q1—nearly halved. Operating loss widened from 9.3 billion to 12.3 billion. Anthropic's revenue in the same period was 11.5 billion, more than doubling quarter-over-quarter, with a slight adjusted operating profit. OpenAI's CFO said they plan to go public in 2027, possibly earlier if business accelerates.
Impact on crypto
Jalapeño confirms a trend: AI companies are shifting from buying chips to making chips, rapidly lowering inference costs. The lower the inference cost, the more widespread AI applications become, increasing demand for computing power. For the crypto market, AI infrastructure capital expenditure will continue to expand, and the capital siphoning effect will not stop.
Trading notes
Bitcoin is oscillating around 80,000, all longs have been closed waiting for a pullback. Avoid heavy directional bets before PCE and Wash speeches. Continue holding SPCX as a base position; wait for adjustments in storage and others before acting. NVIDIA's earnings report will be released early morning August 27 Beijing time, the most critical validation point for the AI industry chain this week. Those holding positions should set stop losses.
$ETH $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.Gold at $4660, approaching a three-month high, up more than 7% in a week. BTC is hovering around $79,000, after surging to $81,000 yesterday and then dropping back. The same macro environment, the same set of rate hike expectations, two "interest-free assets" with vastly different trends. What is gold rising on? What is BTC waiting for? Let's start with gold. Are rate hike expectations still there? Yes. CME data shows a 67% probability of a rate hike in December, and a 64% probability of no change in September. But the market no longer believes it. It doesn't believe rate hikes can solve inflation. It doesn't believe the Fed's hammer can smash through three walls—tariffs, oil prices, and AI investment. Gold is pricing in three narratives: First, inflation stickiness. PCE is still at 3.7%, target 2%, nearly double the difference. Inflation has been above target for over five years. Second, dollar credit erosion. U.S. public debt has surpassed $40 trillion. Richmond Fed President Barkin said: "There will be a reckoning, no one can tell you when." Third, debt unsustainability. IMF Managing Director Georgieva put it bluntly: "All countries need to solve their fiscal problems." JPMorgan predicts the average gold price in 2026 to be about $5243, possibly rising to $6000 by the end of the year. Gold is speaking with its price: rate hikes don't scare me anymore. What about BTC? BTC's "digital gold" narrative has been disproven too many times during liquidity tightening. In the 2022 rate hike cycle, BTC fell from 69,000 to 16,000. "Digital gold"?As of 15:00 on August 26 📊 Total SOL Position Volume and Long-Short Status Total Network Position Volume (OI): approximately $3.12 billion Long Positions: approximately $1.58 billion Short Positions: approximately $1.54 billion Note: Due to a dense concentration of high-leverage retail traders on the long side, the nominal total long positions slightly lead, with an overall intense long-short battle. 📉 Distribution of Holdings in Three Specific Ranges Low-Profit Accumulation Zone ($110 ~ $135): 45% Mid-Term Shakeout and Turnover Zone ($135 ~ $155): 35% High-Risk Speculation Zone ($155 ~ $165): 20% 🧠 Underlying Logic of Holdings Distribution Low-Profit Accumulation Zone Logic: As the largest portion of holdings, this corresponds to the bottom consolidation box where the price oscillated the longest and turnover was most sufficient during the market bottoming over the past several months. This portion mainly consists of long-term coin-margined longs, spot hedges, and institutional trend base positions. As long as there is no systemic market crash, these “dead long” holdings will not be easily relinquished during market fluctuations. Mid-Term Shakeout and Turnover Zone Logic: This range represents the most intense tug-of-war and oscillation center during the recent main upward wave and the breakthrough of previous resistance levels. Here, shorts trapped at previous highs cut losses on pullbacks, while longs who missed the initial move buy on dips, completing a large-scale transfer of holdings ownership. The density of holdings in this zone directly determines the support strength during market pullbacks. High-A $30T market sounds incredible. That's exactly why I'd focus on the smaller number. Anthropic's projected $190B-$200B revenue for 2028 would capture only around 0.6% of that TAM. The IPO case isn't really about how enormous AI could become. It's about how much Anthropic can actually capture while paying for compute, talent and R&D. Huge TAMs sell stories. Retention, pricing power, margins and cash flow ultimately justify valuations. #Anthropic30TTAM The US is expanding sanctions while negotiating Strait navigation; oil prices are giving back war premiums — the market is pricing in a "diplomatic window" rather than "military conflict"
The US has expanded financial and trade sanctions against Iran (including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping under secondary sanctions), but at the same time has shifted pressure from military action to economic blockade and has begun arranging for some diplomatic personnel to return to the Middle East.
Countries like Qatar continue to push for the resumption of US-Iran negotiations, and Iran and Oman are also discussing a temporary joint navigation channel, joint mine clearance, and subsequent management plans for the Strait of Hormuz.
The current market pricing is not about "whether sanctions will succeed," but whether negotiations can achieve a breakthrough.
The market no longer overreacts to "announcements of sanctions" — what truly drives oil prices is not what the White House says, but whether oil tankers can pass through the Strait of Hormuz smoothly. The diplomatic window period means short-term pressure on oil prices, but the enforcement strength of sanctions is the key variable for the medium-term direction.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
$BTC $ETH That’s the potential market Anthropic reportedly believes AI could eventually address and honestly, that number is difficult to ignore.
But I think there’s an important distinction here: $30T TAM doesn’t mean Anthropic expects to make $30T. It represents the theoretical size of the opportunity if AI becomes capable of handling a much larger share of work across software, research, finance, customer service and other industries.
Personally, I find the idea exciting, but I’m also a little skeptical of numbers this large. AI is clearly becoming more useful, but there’s still a big gap between “AI can potentially do this work” and “customers will actually pay AI companies enough to capture that value.”
That’s what I’ll be watching. Not how big companies say the AI opportunity could become, but how quickly real adoption, revenue and productivity actually catch up with those expectations.
#Anthropic30TTAM $BTC $ZEC narrative completely breaks out — Grayscale founder bullish on ZEC to $8,000
Grayscale founder Barry Silbert believes ZEC's long-term market cap could reach 1/10 of BTC's, corresponding to about $8,000; meanwhile, ZEC just experienced a surge, hitting a high of $855, with derivatives 24H trading volume reaching $9.5 billion, showing heavy leverage.
Interestingly, he also predicts that US stocks might move toward 7×24-hour trading in the next 5 years, and competition from Hyperliquid could accelerate this process.
My strategy: regard $ZEC at $8,000 as a long-term narrative, not a short-term target to chase. Above $800, first see if it can hold steady; consider scaling in on pullbacks to $700–750; if it falls below $700, reduce leverage first. The ETF has officially launched ZCSH, and after the positive news settles, be cautious of "buying the rumor, selling the fact." Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the US July PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data will be released, which is the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator. For the crypto space, the core impact path is: PCE data → Fed interest rate expectations → US dollar and US Treasury yields → risk asset (cryptocurrency) prices. Market expectations and potential risks · Market consensus: overall PCE year-on-year 3.6%, month-on-month +0.07%; core PCE year-on-year expected between 3.2%-3.3%. · Main upside risks: July core PPI (Producer Price Index) surged 0.4% month-on-month (four times June's), with portfolio management fees jumping 6.5%, these components will directly feed into the PCE calculation, so there is a risk of core PCE exceeding expectations tonight. How will the data affect the crypto space? Scenario 1: PCE higher than expected (persistent inflation) · Interest rates and USD: weakens rate cut expectations, USD strengthens. · US Treasury yields: 30-year Treasury yield may rebound from 5.19%. · Crypto impact: directly hits the logic chain of "yield decline → risk appetite recovery → BTC aiming for $80,000." Bitcoin and altcoins may face selling pressure. Scenario 2: PCE meets or is below expectations (inflation cooling) · Interest rates and USD: consolidates rate cut expectations, USD weakens. · US Treasury yields: yields remain low or decline further. · Crypto positive: strengthens the narrative of "inflation cooling → easing expectations → positive for risk assets," which helps Bitcoin stay above $80,000 ZEC ETF officially launched, but the reality isn't as strong as imagined 🤔
The Grayscale ZEC spot ETF has been listed, with a first-day trading volume of $14.8 million. I think it's important to distinguish that having trading volume doesn't mean a large amount of real money is flowing in; there are both buyers and sellers.
Before the news came out, the market had already speculated in advance, pushing ZEC up steadily. Now the price is around $780, showing a pattern of rising sharply after the positive news and then pulling back.
I think the ETF can only be considered a bonus; the ETF concept alone can't sustain a continuous big rally. What really determines whether it can keep going up is the actual ecosystem development in the privacy sector. If there is no continuous capital inflow after the ETF, relying solely on speculation, the market will easily lose momentum.
The privacy sector has indeed regained market attention thanks to this ETF, but don't be blindly optimistic.
My trading thoughts: the current position is not suitable for chasing highs. Resistance above is at $860, and short-term support below is at $740.
For those already holding, you can take profits by selling some on rallies; for those not yet in, don't rush to jump in—be patient and wait for a pullback near support to look for opportunities. Going forward, focus on two things: first, the subsequent capital inflow data for the ETF, and second, whether the market can hold key support levels. No matter how good the concept is, without capital support, it's all in vain.
This is just my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice.
$ZEC #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 Citibank sounds the alarm! Gold's false fire VS Bitcoin's real gold, tonight is the life-or-death moment
Citibank just released a report bluntly stating that this gold rally is entirely driven by speculative futures funds, with physical demand not keeping up at all. The meaning is straightforward — the rise is fake, and any sudden disturbance could trigger a crash at any time.
Coincidentally, Bitcoin is following the same script right now. It surged 24% in the past week, once breaking through 81,000 dollars, but frankly, this is also driven by liquidity expectations + short squeeze + speculative funds piling in. The repeated sharp ups and downs at high levels these past two days are the best proof.
Personally, I think Citibank's words are a warning to us — markets driven by speculative funds come fast and go even faster.
Tonight at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak. If he speaks dovishly, Bitcoin might surge again; if he speaks hawkishly, the dollar will rebound, liquidity will tighten, gold will fall first, and Bitcoin will most likely suffer as well.
Bitcoin now is no longer a pure safe-haven asset; like gold, it is extremely sensitive to macro policies and liquidity.
What should retail investors do? Don't chase highs or panic sell, control your positions well, and wait for the annual meeting outcome before making moves.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC HYPE just pushed to a new all-time high around $83, while Hyperliquid continues to attract serious trading activity. The timing is interesting. On August 29, around 14.18M $HYPE tokens are scheduled to unlock, worth roughly $1.2B at current prices. That represents about 1.4% of total supply and 2.7% of HYPE’s market cap. Nearly 47% of the unlocked tokens are allocated to insiders. 0 This creates a very interesting setup. $HYPE is entering the unlock with strong momentum instead of weakness. IfAnthropic tells investors a $30 trillion story, surpassing SpaceX's $28.5 trillion — how much of the AI "market size narrative" can be realized?
Three questions the market needs to verify as the public IPO filing approaches, investors need to judge:
1. Is the TAM reasonable: Does the $30 trillion cover the real demand for enterprise software and knowledge work?
2. Can the share be captured: Can model differentiation, customer retention, and pricing power translate into real market share?
3. Can profits be realized: With sustained high computing power and R&D investment, can the huge market space support profits and cash flow, rather than just inflating the IPO valuation?
Anthropic is telling a "bigger story than SpaceX" — but if 2028 revenue accounts for only 0.6% of the TAM, then 99.4% of the "potential market" will take decades to reach. Is the IPO valuation anchored in the imagination of the TAM, or the visibility of $200 billion revenue in 2028?
The $30 trillion TAM is Anthropic's "largest imagination" prepared for the IPO, but the market will ultimately ask: under the pressure of the computing power arms race and open-source models, what justifies you capturing this 0.6%?
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Good afternoon everyone
$BTC BTC
Among the three, it has the strongest resistance to external black swan events. The impacts can be divided into two categories: macro-financial shocks and internal industry black swans.
At the macro level, soaring US debt and a major stock market drop will drive BTC down, but institutional allocation provides support, making bottomless crashes very rare. At the industry level, public chain security incidents, DeFi crashes, and collapses of other coins rarely destroy BTC's core consensus. Its value does not depend on any specific smart contract or application, only on social consensus.
The cost is that when facing major regulatory negative news, it will also suffer sharp corrections. But as long as the consensus foundation remains unshaken, the probability of recovery after shocks is highest. When black swans occur, it acts as an internal safe haven within crypto assets, with funds flowing back from public chain assets to BTC.
$ETH ETH
Its resistance to shocks is moderate. It falls alongside BTC under macro shocks; internal industry shocks hurt it more.
If there are unfavorable SEC rulings, large-scale staking unlocks, or major contract vulnerabilities, market confidence in its infrastructure will be directly hit. The ETH ecosystem is highly coupled; large-scale DeFi liquidations or major L2 security incidents will transmit to ETH’s price. Its value is tied to the entire ecosystem; if the ecosystem has problems, the token will be sold off accordingly.
Its advantage lies in a solid developer community base; even when facing negative news, the ecosystem won’t collapse quickly, providing a foundation for recovery. But in every industry crisis, ETH’s drawdown is usually greater than BTC’s. It does not have safe-haven properties during crises and is treated as a high-risk asset.
$SOL SOL
It has the weakest resistance to shocks. Whether macro tightening or minor industry panic, its correction amplitude is the largest among the three.
It lacks institutional base holdings as a buffer; most chips are trading funds. No major black swan is needed—just a slight decline in market risk appetite or fading on-chain meme heat can trigger massive sell-offs. Even if on-chain technology is faultless, if market sentiment cools, the price will plunge sharply.
The ecosystem’s user base is highly speculative with limited loyalty; poor market conditions lead to immediate withdrawal. It has the greatest elasticity during positive news but almost no funds willing to actively support the bottom during risks. It lacks an internal crypto safe-haven function; when crises come, it is often the first to be sold off regardless of cost.
Summary: During crises, fund flow sequence: SOL is sold off first → ETH follows with declines → BTC acts as the internal crypto safe-haven absorbing funds. In good markets, the order reverses. The current market is in a positive expectation environment, with risks temporarily concealed; once external shocks occur, the differentiation among the three will immediately become apparent. $BTC and the overall market's recent pullback caused the total open interest (OI) across all contracts to drop about 5.1% in 24 hours to $55.56B; futures liquidations across the market exceeded $230M in 24 hours. This situation is what Ajian mentioned before: price decline accompanied by OI decrease, indicating some leverage is being actively or passively squeezed out; this is healthier than price dropping but OI surging, as at least the market is clearing fragile positions.
Looking at the continued net inflow into ETFs, institutional buying hasn't disappeared, so we can't say the rally is over. A truly dangerous trend reversal usually comes with ETFs starting continuous outflows; price breaking below the previous structural low; increased spot selling pressure; OI rising instead of falling; and funding rates remaining expensive despite the decline.
So friends, don't immediately treat pullbacks in a strong trend as bearish. I suggest watching three things first:
1. Can it reclaim $80K?
2. Can ETF inflows continue?
3. After OI cleanup, is spot buying stepping in again?
When the price is strong, such pullbacks are actually good entry opportunities, but the premise is knowing whether you are buying the dip or catching the falling knife #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The market can be asleep one minute…
…and completely insane the next.
DOGE is sitting around $0.08612, showing +0.48%, with approximately $45.97M in volume.
That puts DOGE back on the radar.
WATCHING:
Support: $0.0845–$0.0855
Resistance: $0.0895
If DOGE holds support and volume expands, the next push could target $0.0895 and potentially $0.093.
But DOGE is not an asset I want to chase blindly.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM Crude oil and long-term US Treasury yields falling have driven a recovery rebound in US stocks and $QQQ, with the current structure classified as a position adjustment on the eve of macro events. Overall market volume has shrunk by 12.7% compared to the 20-day average, the S&P 500 rose 0.32% but the equal-weight index fell 0.09%, with only 207 constituent stocks rising, and gains concentrated among the leaders. Under the triple pressure of PCE data, Nvidia earnings, and the central bank annual meeting, US stocks and rate assets currently lack the foundation for a trend breakout. If heavyweight earnings reports and data far exceed expectations, a volume breakout in US stocks and a simultaneous strengthening of the equal-weight index would confirm the continuation of the trend.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Tonight at 8:30 PM, the July PCE will be released. For BTC and ETH, what really matters tonight is not the data itself, but whether it will change the market's expectations for the Fed's subsequent policies.
I simply divide the outcomes into three scenarios: If the core PCE basically meets expectations, BTC and ETH will most likely continue to fluctuate, with funds waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday; if it is significantly below expectations, inflation cools down, US Treasury yields fall, BTC has a chance to challenge 82,000, and ETH looks at 2550-2600; conversely, if the PCE exceeds expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, BTC will focus on support at 75,500-76,300, and ETH will also be under pressure.
So even if the data is positive, don't rush to chase; you can take profits in the short term. Spot markets don't need to be scared by one data point; the real show is still Powell's statement on Friday. PCE is just a prelude; policy expectations are the direction.
$BTC $SOL $ZEC #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold?
Key points to know about Bitcoin's subsequent trend!!! @OKX中文 @OKX星球
1. July PCE is the short-term key: If PCE inflation exceeds expectations, the September rate hike expectations will heat up, strengthening the USD and US Treasuries, which is bearish for Bitcoin; if data meets or falls below expectations, it will only provide limited support, and the high interest rate environment is unlikely to change. AI costs, stock market management fees, and Middle East energy are potential inflation risk factors. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
2. Jackson Hole Symposium: The Fed Chair's speech will determine mid-term volatility; a hawkish stance will suppress Bitcoin, while a neutral stance will maintain consolidation. Institutional baseline judgment is that a rate hike in September is unlikely but the possibility remains. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
3. End of September PCE statistical revision: Historical inflation data will be revised retrospectively, disturbing monetary policy expectations and causing additional Bitcoin volatility.
4. Medium to long-term pressure: AI-driven price increases and geopolitical energy cost hikes will extend the Fed's high interest rate cycle, suppressing Bitcoin's upward potential.
5. Baseline scenario: If data is moderate, Bitcoin will mainly consolidate, but risks of decline from inflation exceeding expectations and hawkish central bank remarks remain. $OKB's trend—I’ve been watching it all day, and my heart has been on a bit of a roller coaster. The 24-hour low hit 107, now it’s pulled back up to 114.8, with a trading volume of only 13.7 million. Honestly, that volume is not enough to be convincing.
Let me break down what I see in the market. The 107 level is exactly the lower boundary of the consolidation range from a few days ago. It dropped to this point today but didn’t break through, then slowly bought back up, indicating some capital is quietly accumulating at the bottom, but the buying isn’t aggressive—more like a stealthy entry. Now at 114.85, it’s right at the mid-level resistance of the recent downtrend. The first hurdle above is 115-116, and beyond that, 120 is a clear strong resistance. Without volume expansion, it’s hard to push through these levels.
I checked the OKB order book on OKX; the order depth is a bit thicker than yesterday, but large orders are still sparse. A 13.7 million trading volume for $OKB is just enough for a few big players to flip some hands back and forth. To drive a decent rebound, the volume needs to at least double. So my current stance is: a rebound is possible, but don’t expect to get rich overnight.
I previously added a small base position around 105, and I don’t plan to move that. The logic remains the same: the OKX ecosystem supports it, with buybacks and burns, Launchpad, and fee discounts—these are solid fundamentals that give confidence to hold long-term despite short-term fluctuations. For short-term, I’ve added some positions and will be more flexible. If it pushes up to 115-116 without volume expansion, I’ll reduce a bit first and consider buying back near 110 on a pullback. If it breaks and holds above 116 with volume, I’ll add more and decide whether to exit near 120.
Conversely, if it can’t get past 115 and falls below 110, I won’t panic. I’ll keep the base position and cut losses on short-term trades as needed, not stubbornly holding. The advantage of OKB is that you can hold through dips, unlike air coins where the bottom is unknown.
At this point, I don’t recommend chasing if you’re empty-handed because the upside space isn’t open and the risk-reward is average. If you really want to participate, try a light position on a low-volume dip near 110-111, set stop loss below 108, and target 116-118—that’s more cost-effective.
Lastly, a side note: every time OKB drops, the community starts complaining; when it rises, people shout “take off.” I’ve held OKB for many years and am used to this. Platform tokens don’t surge like altcoins; they’re more like a marathon. Short-term speed doesn’t say much.Bitcoin surged to $81,270 intraday yesterday, soaring 24% in a week, marking the best performance since 2023. The market greed index hit 80, indicating extreme greed. But at this moment, DeepSeek's data is even more explosive — revenue for the first 7 months reached 475 million, 10 times last year's total; API business gross margin is 82.9%, overall gross margin 44.6%. The most impressive is that their V4-Pro peak output price jumped from $0.87 directly to $3.96. Where does this confidence come from? AI infrastructure investment skyrocketed from 1.2 billion last year to 11 billion in the first 7 months.
Qihang's view is simple: the AI computing power track is replicating the logic of the 2021 DeFi Summer. DeepSeek is valued at 500 billion, with an IPO planned in Shanghai next year. This is not just an AI circle matter — computing power equals power, power equals narrative, narrative equals liquidity. Bitcoin's breakthrough past 80,000 is backed by the US Treasury's bond repurchase easing + Trump's push for the Clarity Act, but the next narrative to take over is likely the AI x Crypto track.
What should retail investors do? Don't chase the high Bitcoin price; watch for support at 78,000 on pullbacks. Focus on foundational infrastructure projects combining AI + blockchain, such as computing power leasing and decentralized inference — these directions could be the engine for the next major upward wave.
Which track do you think this AI narrative will propel? Let's discuss in the comments. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 #AnthroZEC at $790, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: ETF launched, surged then pulled back, retail investors panicked.
In the past week, ZEC surged from 570 all the way to 883-888, hitting an eight-year high, the whole network celebrating "the spring of privacy coins has arrived." Then on August 25, Grayscale ZCSH officially debuted on NYSE Arca, and that day it immediately dropped sharply, hitting a low of 754, now struggling at 790.
A typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.
First thing: The ETF is here, but the 2.5% fee rate tells you institutions aren’t that enthusiastic.
The world’s first ZEC spot ETF, with about $310 million AUM, holding 390,000 ZEC. Sounds like great news?
But look closely at the fee: 2.5%. BTC ETFs usually charge 0.2-0.4%, this is 5-10 times more expensive. Even Grayscale itself lacks confidence to attract large-scale institutional funds, so they rely on high fees to make money first. The first-year management fee flows back to the ecosystem for marketing—translated: afraid no one will buy, so they use money for advertising.
Classic pattern: rush to accumulate before ETF launch, surge then pull back after launch.
Second thing: NU7 voting is triggering an even bigger bomb.
The token holder vote started around August 25, topics include: whether to adjust the issuance mechanism, whether to weaken or cancel the traditional halving, and switch to a smoother issuance curve.
Only shielded ZEC spendable in the Ironwood privacy pool has voting rights, rumored threshold is around one million coins.
If passed: miner security budget improves, but breaks the "BTC halving benchmark" narrative.
If not passed: status quo maintained, but miner revenue pressure continues.
Third thing: derivatives overheating to a dangerous level.
Perpetual/futures open interest soared from 960 million to 1.8 billion in one week, nearly doubling. Positive funding rates indicate longs are crowded to suffocation.
If BTC retraces or macro news turns negative, ZEC’s damage will far exceed spot price drops. The more crowded the longs, the more brutal the stampede.
Long vs short, you decide.
On one side:
- The world’s first ZEC spot ETF is listed, institutional channel opened
- Ironwood upgrade launched, supply verifiable, trust restored
- Shielded supply 25%-31%, actual circulating supply compressed
- From 570 to 888, main uptrend volume exploded
On the other side:
- ETF launched then dumped, 2.5% fee exposes limited institutional enthusiasm
- NU7 vote may rewrite halving narrative, huge uncertainty
- Open interest doubled to 1.8 billion in a week, longs crowded
- Daily RSI still above 70 overbought, moving averages too far apart
Resistance above: 810-830 → 850-870 → 883-888 (eight-year high)
Support below: 780-790 (weak) → 750-765 (first lifeline) → 720-730 → 650-680
Daily close below 730 ends main uptrend. Weekly close below 700 signals mid-term weakness.
Trading strategy
For existing longs (cost below 720):
Reduce 1/3 to 1/2 above 830, lowering cost to below 750.
For existing longs (cost 780-820):
Reduce half at 790-810, keep a base position targeting 850, stop loss at 748.
For empty positions wanting to go long:
Do not chase at 790. Wait for a pullback to 750-765 with hammer/volume spike, stop loss 738, target 810-850. Or wait for daily to stabilize above 830 before chasing on the right side.
For those wanting to short:
Watch for long upper shadows with volume contraction at 808-828, light short with stop loss 848, target 765-730. If 888 is reclaimed with volume, exit immediately.
Position rules:
Single-side position no more than 20% of principal, leverage within 3x. High volatility assets + crowded contracts + macro window, default to reduce leverage.
ZEC now is like Coinbase on its IPO day—
Everyone thinks "ETF listing = immediate surge," but it surged then pulled back, retail chasing at the peak, smart money waiting at the bottom.
Those chasing at 880 and those entering at 570 see the same ZEC, but completely different worlds.
This market never lacks opportunities, it lacks patience.
What is your ZEC cost?
At 790, are you chasing or waiting?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 BTC retreated after hitting 81270, testing the strength of the pullback
📊 Market Analysis:
BTC surged to 81270 before falling back to 78762. Last week's 23% rally was mainly driven by the US Treasury Secretary's debt repurchase doubling + short squeeze. The daily RSI is at 82, indicating overbought conditions, making a short-term pullback almost inevitable.
📈 Trading Insights:
The rally driven by forced liquidations is unlikely to sustain; the key is whether spot buying can take over. The ETF weekly net inflow of 1.92 billion is a positive signal, but if the pullback shows increased volume without recovery, caution is warranted.
⛏️ On-Chain Data:
BTC balances on exchanges continue to decline, with whales withdrawing coins. Short-term holders' MVRV has risen to 1.15, approaching the 1.2 profit-taking threshold. Stablecoin inflows have not significantly increased, indicating slow new money entering.
📝 Market Commentary:
Currently, the market is driven by "news flow + short squeeze," not a full return of new liquidity. It's advisable to watch more and act less before PCE and Jackson Hole events.
📈 Key Levels:
🟢 Support: 77800-78500
🔴 Resistance: 80000-81270
⚠️ Risk Level: 77000
🧠 My Approach: Hold the base position; add more if 77800 stabilizes or there is a volume breakout above 80000. September is usually the weakest month, so position management is more important than directional calls. BTC Breaks 80,000: Is the Bull Market Truly Starting, or Is It Another "Wolf is Coming"?
This rally is indeed stronger than expected.
A few days ago, the market was still debating whether 76,000 could hold, but the price stopped falling and rebounded directly at 77,800, climbing all the way back above 78,000 without even a decent pullback.
On August 25, BTC peaked at 81,237, returning above 80,000 after three months, with a weekly gain of over 20%, showing very strong momentum.
But this rise is not just a short-term short squeeze.
On one hand, shorts were heavily liquidated, with over a billion dollars in short positions cleared in a short time;
On the other hand, and most importantly: spot institutions are genuinely entering the market.
The US stock BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, the strongest in nearly ten months, with BlackRock continuously accumulating, indicating a very solid capital base.
Combined with weakening US Treasury yields, a retreating dollar, and gold hitting new highs, the macro environment is fully supporting risk assets.
However, to be honest: breaking through does not mean fully holding the ground.
80,000 is a long-term strong resistance level, with multiple historical rejections after rallies. Whether the bull market continues depends on two points:
1. Whether ETF funds can keep flowing in steadily, rather than in pulses
2. The Federal Reserve’s stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will determine short-term monetary policy expectations
The market also clearly shows capital divergence:
BTC is holding new highs steadily, but second-tier coins like ETC are pulling back more noticeably.
This is a typical early bull market characteristic: capital clusters around the leaders, not a broad, chaotic rally.
Three clear scenarios going forward:
- Strong continuation: holding above 80,000, fully opening the upside space
- Most likely consolidation: range-bound between 76,000–82,000, digesting profits
- Weak pullback: capital outflow plus macro headwinds, falling back below 75,000, just a rebound, not a reversal
Various on-chain indicators and institutional sentiment all point to the early stage of a bull market.
But I remain rational: bull markets don’t rise straight up, rallies never mean stability, and true trends are confirmed by pullback support.
Short-term key support: 79,000–80,000
Holding this range looks toward 83,000 resistance; breaking below means continuing to watch for consolidation.
At the 80,000 mark, the real battle between bulls and bears is just beginning.
Don’t get greedy or speculative; follow the trend and wait for certainty.
$BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
Damn! The US thinks that adding more sanctions can strangle Iran, but Iran counterattacks by holding the Strait of Hormuz hostage to the world!
Washington just hit hard, blacklisting Iran's digital currency, gold, shipping, aircraft, and technology all at once, naming over 60 entities, not even sparing the biggest exchange bosses. Bassent is shouting "economic isolation," aiming to completely choke Iran's finances.
Iranian advisors and the deputy foreign minister directly stated: Want the strait to reopen? First settle the debts and blockades in Lebanon and Yemen, otherwise no deal.
But the market isn't buying it. Oil prices are falling instead of rising, and risk premiums have been wiped out. Oman and Iran have already set up a temporary joint shipping channel, mine clearance is on the table, and Qatar is shuttling to push negotiations.
Everyone is betting that diplomacy will land first; sanctions are just background noise. Once the strait is open, the energy panic will immediately calm down, inflation expectations will ease, and stocks and crypto can have a short-term boost.
Conversely, if sanctions really choke off Iran's oil exports and cross-border payments, energy prices and dollar liquidity will have to be re-evaluated together. Bitcoin faces pressure from both sides: safe-haven funds might flow in, but if liquidity tightens, it could be hammered—it's a matter of which side moves first.
In the medium term, it still depends on whether the strait can truly reopen; that will be the real strong positive. Right now, the market is all betting on negotiations landing first; no matter how harsh the sanctions, oil prices just aren't buying it, and risk assets are still holding up.🧭 Uncle 24h Radar｜8.26: BTC failed twice to break 81K, retail investors are going long at the most dangerous position
BTC pulled up to 80,742 during the Asian session today then fell back to 78,981 (-2.15%), touching 81K twice in two days and failing both times.
⚠️ Retail long-short ratio rose from 0.937 to 1.0133, retail investors kept adding longs in the 79K-81K range, but the price dropped instead of rising—a typical distribution pattern of strong hands selling off.
🔥 $TMX +186% (King of Alpha), but the ecosystem is bleeding, $牛来 -9.54%, siphoning effect worsens.
SOL lost 100 again (currently 96.94), $STX fell back to 0.28.
🎯 Tonight at 20:30 PCE sets the direction. Below expectations → break through 81K; above expectations → 77.8K in danger.
Control all positions with stop losses before 20:30. Wait for the data to land before making moves. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 A record headline can still disappoint when the mechanism is unclear. Samsung's KRW90T-KRW110T 2026 shareholder-return plan was followed by an 8.7% share decline, while the KOSPI fell 3.12%, suggesting investors are assigning more value to execution than to the aggregate commitment.
Only about KRW30T in Q3 cash dividends is clear. Without firm buyback and cancellation details, the market cannot yet judge the impact on share count or per-share value. My read: confidence may depend on whether Samsung can define a credible balance between distributions, cancellations and AI expansion, especially beside SK Hynix's explicit approach.
Not advice, just analysis.
#SamsungPayoutSelloffThe current market is a typical "early bull market consolidation shakeout" pattern, with several details worth noting:
1. Mainstream coins outperform the broader market, capital begins to overflow
ETH has been continuously strengthening against BTC for a week, and the leading coins in the DeFi and Layer2 sectors have averaged gains of over 15% in the past 3 days, indicating that capital has spilled over from Bitcoin's one-sided trend and started to spread to mainstream sectors. Sector rotation has already begun. However, it should be noted that small coins are mostly experiencing "one-day tour" trading without sustained profit effects, indicating that capital is still in a cautious trial-and-error phase and it’s not yet a widespread rally.
2. Bullish momentum is weakening, highs are gradually moving lower
Bitcoin's highs over the past three days were $81,023, $79,970, and $78,982 respectively, with each high lower than the previous one. However, the lows have not effectively broken the $78,000 support level, indicating heavy selling pressure above and strong support below—a typical high-level consolidation digesting profit-taking. Open interest (OI) in the futures market remains at a historical high of $17.8 billion, showing both bulls and bears are leveraging to bet on direction. Subsequent spikes to trigger stop losses will become common, so don’t set stop losses too tight or you risk precise liquidation by market makers.
3. Whales and retail investors operate in opposite directions
On-chain data shows that in the past 7 days, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 12,000 BTC, while retail addresses holding less than 0.1 BTC have cumulatively reduced holdings by 37,000 BTC. This is a typical "retail can’t hold chips, whales accumulate against the trend" scenario. This also explains why every dip has support and every rise has selling pressure—whales are rotating positions during consolidation, shaking out retail chips.
📰 Key news impacting the market
The core driving logic of this rebound still exists but has been partially priced in:
1. Regulatory optimism cools down
The previously expected US CLARITY Act implementation may be delayed until mid-September. The positive impact has already been reflected in this 14% rebound, and without further unexpected policies in the short term, the market naturally struggles to rise.
2. ETF inflow slows down
Bitcoin spot ETFs have had a net inflow of $1.27 billion in the past 3 days, slower than last week's daily average inflow of $800 million, but still positive, indicating institutional long-term positioning logic remains unchanged, though short-term eagerness to chase highs is weak.
3. Macroeconomic uncertainty persists
The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has dropped from 68% last week to 42%, and the US dollar index has rebounded for 3 consecutive days, suppressing risk asset valuations. This is a key reason why Bitcoin has struggled to break through $80,000.
⚠️ Key points for subsequent operations
At this position, avoid blindly chasing highs or shorting easily. Focus on two core levels:
● Support: $78,000 is the lifeline of Bitcoin’s current rebound. If it breaks effectively (4-hour close below $77,500), it indicates the start of a short-term correction. The next support is at $75,000, possibly even retesting the previous platform at $72,000.
● Resistance: $80,000 is a strong short-term resistance. If it breaks out with volume and holds, it means the shakeout is over, and the next target is $85,000.
● Sector opportunities: Focus on opportunities in ETH and the Layer2 sector. The ETH/BTC rate has already broken out of a nearly 3-month consolidation range, showing strength relative to the broader market. The Ethereum Cancun upgrade expectations will gradually ferment, likely outperforming Bitcoin in the upcoming market.
Finally, a reminder: This article is only an objective market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; be sure to manage your positions well, avoid excessive leverage, don’t get shaken out by short-term volatility, and don’t chase highs impulsively. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The US, Iran, and Russia are taking frequent actions, actively promoting positive developments in the situation!
1. Iran has disclosed for the first time the specific structure of the temporary route. The new temporary channel is 7 miles wide, with the section entering the Persian Gulf passing through Iranian waters, and the exit part of the route also passing through Iranian waters. The new route is basically under Iran's main control.
2. The US has begun to restore the dispatch of diplomatic personnel to the Middle East. Diplomats from Middle Eastern countries and their families can return to the region, which can be seen as a military de-escalation.
3. Russian sources say that the US and Iran have reached a consensus on a ceasefire agreement. This news alone is not highly credible, but combined with another report that the CIA director secretly visited Russia yesterday, during which Ukraine temporarily stopped attacks on Russia.
Combining these two pieces of news greatly increases the credibility of the Russian information. Next, it depends on the specific dynamics between the US and Iran.
Stage summary:
The energy market has already accelerated pricing based on the current positive developments. International crude oil and US oil have further fallen to critical points. Going forward, it remains to be seen whether the US and Iran will issue official announcements to confirm Russia's statements.
It is worth mentioning that, according to data websites, although the situation has improved, the navigation data for the Strait of Hormuz yesterday is still not ideal. The temporary strait between Iran and Oman is basically under Iran's main control, which may increase the difficulty of US recognition and may also cause continued disputes over the strait between the two sides. #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进 $BTC has already fallen back below 80000 USD, with the spot price fluctuating around 79000 USD, indicating that this upward breakout has not yet held.
This is actually more worth paying attention to than a simple rise.
Because BTC's rapid rise from a low level is driven by two forces: on one side, spot ETF funds warming up, with continuous net inflows earlier; on August 24, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net inflow of about 338 million USD; on the other side, after the price broke through a key level, short covering further pushed the market upward.
The problem lies here.
ETF fund inflows mean someone is genuinely buying, but the rise caused by short covering may not be sustainable. When BTC surged above 80000 USD, short-term profit-taking began, and 80000 USD immediately turned from a breakout point into a resistance level.
Moreover, the latest ETF fund data is also worth noting: inflows are not continuously increasing; recent statistics have shown single-day net outflows.
So personally, I think we can no longer simply say "BTC breaks through 80000 USD and immediately starts a new round of rally."
A more accurate statement would be: BTC attempted to break through 80000 USD, but the first time it did not hold.
The most critical thing next is not to keep guessing whether it will rise or fall today, but to watch the strength of this pullback.
If BTC only falls back to fluctuate around 79000 USD, then quickly stands back above 80000 USD, and ETF funds resume inflows, this would look more like a normal consolidation after a breakout. After all, a rapid price rise in a short time naturally leads to profit-taking.
But if 80000 USD clearly becomes resistance again, with each rebound being suppressed, plus continuous ETF fund outflows, then this rally needs to be reassessed. By then, the previous rapid rise might have been more driven by funds and short covering rather than a genuine new trend opening.
I've always thought the biggest fear in trading BTC is getting excited at a breakout and panicking at a drop.
The 80000 USD level is now very clear: the first breakout failed, which doesn't mean the market is over, but it does indicate that selling pressure above is heavier than expected.
What’s truly worth watching next is whether funds continue to buy after the price falls.
Prices are more honest than words.
If the price falls but funds keep flowing in, and BTC can reclaim 80000 USD, then this pullback might not be a bad thing. But if the price continues down and funds start to withdraw, don’t rush to treat a spike as a trend reversal.
BTC’s real test this time is not whether it can surge above 80000 USD.
It’s whether it can stand back up after falling.
$ETH $ZEC
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 U.S. stocks rebounded after crude oil and long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell simultaneously, with Nasdaq and SOX leading the gains, but this is more akin to a pre-event tech stock position repair rather than a new trend breakout.
The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, while the equal-weight index fell 0.09%, and only 207 constituent stocks advanced, indicating the index outperformed the average stock and gains remained highly concentrated.
Total market volume was only 14.32 billion shares, about 12.7% below the 20-day average volume, which does not support the judgment of "institutional large-scale chasing of gains."
The market condition defines that the long-term bull structure remains intact, with a short-term rebound but insufficient breadth, entering a triple event window of PCE, Nvidia earnings, and Jackson Hole. $QQQ Bitcoin's 24-hour level shows the first sign of momentum decay! Opportunity is coming!
On August 22, $BTC at 78,000 had a realized profit 24-hour peak of $100 million; on August 22, BTC at 80,600 had a peak of $181 million.
The price is higher, but the realized profit is not higher, which now indicates momentum decay.
Normally, when the price surges, market trading should also be more active. Profit-taking emerges, funds are absorbed, and the price is pulled up; this is a sign of strong demand.
Conversely, if there is an upward divergence, it means the driving force is starting to weaken.
But weakening does not mean an immediate drop!
It can also be broken by the next wave of demand or show a secondary divergence. Until the price holds but momentum severely shrinks.
At least what I can see now is that there was a slight problem before 81,000.
It needs to be emphasized that this is not a signal to short!
Rather, if the small problem gradually grows bigger, then those who missed the previous opportunity should pay attention and hurry to find a chance to get on board.The most absurd scene tonight is not that the US keeps expanding the sanctions list, but that with each additional page on the list, oil prices actually drop further.
Digital assets, gold, and shipping are all included in the secondary sanctions against Iran, with claims of "zero leakage." $CL and $BZ should have surged, but both fell over 4%.
Then it became clear: crude oil trading is about how many barrels are missing at sea#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsAndTalks #Anthropic30TTAM