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On August 8, I watched the market and was more concerned about a contrast today: ETF funds have returned, but on-chain liquidity hasn't significantly expanded yet.
Farside shows that on August 5, 6, and 7, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw net inflows of $244.4 million, $137.6 million, and $101.7 million respectively, totaling about $484 million over three trading days. This means institutions have not withdrawn, at least are still buying on pullbacks. However, the price reaction was not particularly strong: around 19:31, BTC-USDT was about $64,977, with a 24-hour range of $64,519-65,388; Binance was at about $64,974 at the same time. ETH was also only holding near $1,920.
Therefore, I wouldn't directly interpret ETF inflows as a 'must break through.' DeFiLlama showed the total market capitalization of stablecoins during the same period was about $300.665 billion, but over the 7th it only increased by about $614 million, or +0.2%, and on the 30th, it was still -0.67%. This is more like bottom-tier buying holding up BTC, rather than the overall market risk appetite opening up.
The next key question is: Can net ETF inflows be sustained and steadily push BTC away from around 65,000? Or will we wait for stablecoin supply and spot trading to recover together before altcoins and DeFi will feel more viable? #BTC #ETF #CryptoGold surged 7% for the week, with the central bank buying, institutions rushing, and aunties chasing—is it still a good time to get on board now? To start with the conclusion: this round of gold is not a "gambling on rate cuts" or simply "avoiding risk"; it is three forces working together as one. Geopolitical chaos controls risk avoidance, nonfarm payrolls manage interest rates, and the central bank's purchase of gold is a backup plan. Walking on three legs together, so the weekly gain can be 7%. You ask me whether my funds are betting on interest rate cuts or risk avoidance? My answer is: only children make choices; this wave of adults wants it all. Let's start with the most unusual incident. The Strait of Hormuz has closed, Iraq's oil exports have been cut by 75%, and Iran has even bombed oil tankers in the UAE. According to the old script, in a supply crisis of this scale, oil prices should skyrocket, inflation expectations rise, rate hike expectations heat up, and gold should be suppressed. But what about this time? Oil prices are falling, and gold is going crazy. Why? Because the US suffered a major upset in July's nonfarm payrolls—employment numbers directly declined. The market saw the economy was so weak, why would you still raise interest? Expectations for a rate hike in September were immediately suppressed. Once the dollar and real interest rates are relaxed, half of gold's "financial attributes" will be brightened. On one side, the strait is closed, and the sense of avoidance cannot be suppressed; On one hand, rate hike expectations have collapsed, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. Previously, these two logics always clashed, but this time, for the first time, they resonate in the same direction. This golden wave is a double kill. And where the money comes from—that's the most crucial point. According to CFTC data, as of August 4, COMEX gold speculative net long positions had surged to 132,000 contracts; gold ETFs increased by 2Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on new route coordinates, but the strait is still a long way from truly reopening—Old Mo tells you that oil price risks don't dissipate so easily
Brothers, there's new news about the Strait of Hormuz, but Old Mo advises you not to jump to conclusions.
Let's talk about progress first—there really is progress.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ghaliba Badi stated on August 5 that the agreement between Iran and Oman regarding commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing finalization. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagae also said that both sides have agreed on the geographic coordinates of the proposed new route, and the joint statement has entered the final review stage.
Based on currently disclosed information, the new arrangement roughly follows this: the existing two waterways—the northern route on the Iranian side and the southern route on the Oman side—are both closed. Instead, a new temporary route passing through Iranian territorial waters is expected to be used for 2 to 4 months. Sources say the provisional agreement is initially set for 60 days, with no tolls charged during those 60 days.
The U.S. side is also optimistic. Treasury Secretary Besent once claimed the agreement "could be reached today or tomorrow." A spokesperson for Qatar's Foreign Ministry said the U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered a "very deep stage."
Oil prices plummeted in response. Brent dropped 11.9% cumulatively over two trading days, plunging from above $80 to $79.36. The market once thought the "war premium" was about to be cleared out.
But Old Mo tells you, things are far from that simple.
First, Iran said the agreement does not mean reopening.
Bagae's exact words were very direct: Iyah reached an agreement does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will resume safe navigation. The closure of the strait stems from U.S. military actions and maritime blockades against Iran; as long as these "threatening actions" remain, the security situation in the strait will not fundamentally improve.
Second, the U.S. blockade continues.
On August 3, the U.S. Central Command stated that the U.S. military continues to strictly enforce the blockade on Iran. On August 6, Trump said the U.S. Navy is carrying out blockade operations against Iran and controlling the relevant waters. As of August 6, the U.S. maritime blockade has forced 48 commercial ships attempting to enter and exit Iranian ports to change course. Iran has also made it clear: even if an agreement is reached with Oman, if the U.S. does not lift the blockade on Iranian ports and does not resume fulfilling previous memorandums of understanding, the strait will remain closed.
Third, Iran is pushing for more radical programs at the parliamentary level.
On August 6, the Iranian parliament released a preliminary text of the proposed strategic management plan for the Strait of Hormuz, which includes banning U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the strait, with violators facing fines of up to 20% of the value of the goods. Salimi, a member of the Iranian parliament's presidium, publicly disclosed the plan.
The plan is still under review, but the direction is clear—Iran wants not just temporary flights, but permanent control arrangements.
Fourth, the charging issue was never agreed upon.
Iran once demanded a fee of 5% to 7% of the value of goods; Oman negotiated about 3%, but the US insisted on free charges. The provisional agreement said no fees for 60 days, but what happens after 60 days? No one is filling this hole.
Has the risk of oil prices cooled down? It has dropped in the short term, but it hasn't dispersed.
Brent fell from a high of $115 all the way down to below $80, and the war premium has indeed squeezed out a large chunk. Goldman Sachs' judgment is that until a new U.S.-Iran agreement is confirmed or the conflict escalates significantly, Brent is expected to remain in the $80 to $90 per barrel range.
A verbal draft agreement does not mean there are actually oil tankers passing through the strait. 60 days of temporary arrangements, 30 days of mine clearance, approval by the Iranian parliament, and whether the US lifts the blockade—if any link goes wrong, oil prices immediately rebound.
Back to the market.
BTC's latest price is around 64,800-65,000, trading within the 64,200-65,300 range for 24 hours. ETH is trading around 1,900-1,920. Bitcoin surged sharply without falling with oil prices, indicating the market is still waiting—the protocol hasn't finished its mark, and no one dares to heavily bet on direction.
Lao Mo said a few words about the operation.
If Bitcoin pulls back to 64,200-64,400 and stabilizes, consider light positions and test long. Set stop-loss below 63,800, targeting 65,300-65,500. If volume drops below 63,800 or even breaks below 63,500, hold fast and avoid bottom-fishing. ETH also looks for stabilization and long positions at 1890-1900, stop loss below 1860, target 1940-1950.
Before the agreement is finalized, oil prices and the market promise will be in a tug-of-war. Don't chase after a "near-reach" agreement; wait until it's signed in black and white.
Do you think the Hormuz agreement can truly be operated within 60 days? Let's discuss in the comments.
If you think Lao Mo has broken it down clearly, give a like and follow. I'll call you right after the agreement is implemented. $BTC $ETH $BICO #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the oil price risk cooled down? The Senate has postponed the CLARITY Act until September.
Thune said the unsayable as he left: "The Democrats insist on no Clarity vote."
The real blocker is an ethics provision proposed by Tillis and Gallego that would force the president and senior officials to divest any holdings worth more than $1 million in any digital asset company if that stake exceeds 10% of the company's total value. This is tailored for one person, and everyone knows who that is.
The bill passed the House in July 2025 by a vote of 294-134. It passed the Senate Banking Committee in May by 15-9. Bill 423 has been on the schedule since June 1, and leadership can arrange a full chamber vote at any time. Thune promised a vote before the August 3 recess. Four days later, it will be September.
This week, the full chamber time is allocated for: government funding, a Russian sanctions bill, and a batch of nominations.
The odds on Polymarket that it becomes law this year have dropped from 30% a week ago to 15.5%. #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克 #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？ #西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 号称金融创新的预测市场却在用赌场的方式报价
八月八日，美国商品期货交易委员会的两个部门联合发了一封信。收信人是所有做事件合约的受监管机构，内容核心只有一句，你们展示价格的方式可能在误导用户。
监管点名的是一个细节，美式赔率。就是体育博彩里常见的那种写法，一个数字前面带加号或者减号，告诉你押一百块能赢多少。看起来直观，赢多少一目了然。
但事件合约本来不是这么定价的。它的价格是零到一美元之间的一个数，五毛三就是市场认为这件事有五成三的可能会发生。这个数字背后有买卖盘，有深度，有你下单会把价格推多远。换成赔率之后，这些全没了，你只看得到能赢多少倍。
CFTC说得很直白，用赔率格式展示，可能让用户搞不清自己在交易什么，也拿不到市场深度和价格冲击这些关键信息。监管还要求，展示的信息得让消费者明白，这是在受监管交易所交易的衍生品，不是那种利润率更高、价格不由市场决定的产品。
这句话其实挺重的。翻译一下就是，别把一个金融合约包装成一个庄家产品。
更狠的在后面。CFTC说，展示误导性定价信息，可能违反联邦法律里关于禁止使用操纵手段的规定。而且平台不能只管自己，还得管住中介、关联方和合作伙伴。你的推广渠道怎么写价格，也算你的责任。
这封信来得不算突然。Kalshi因为事件合约正在被纽约州指控，Polymarket的结算机制和广告问题也一直被盯着。前几天九名民主党参议员刚联名要求禁掉野火相关的盘口，理由是可能鼓励纵火。监管的动作在明显密集起来。
但我觉得最耐人寻味的不是监管说了什么，而是这件事本身暴露出来的东西。
预测市场这两年最爱讲的故事是，我们不是赌场，我们是信息市场，我们比民调准，比媒体快。这套说法确实有它的道理，Polymarket的月访问量已经超过FanDuel、DraftKings和Kalshi三家加起来，估值传闻也到了两百亿。
可如果你的产品真的是在做信息定价，为什么界面要长得像体育博彩，为什么要用赔率而不是概率？答案可能很简单，因为赔率的转化率更高。概率是让人思考的，赔率是让人下注的。
监管这次并没有说你不能开盘口，只说了你报价的方式得像个金融产品。听上去只是改个显示格式，其实是在逼平台回答一个问题，你到底希望用户用哪种脑子来用你。
咱们说白了，同一个五毛三的价格，写成概率和写成赔率，看的人心态完全不一样。前者你会想这事到底能不能成，后者你只会算这把能翻几倍。
那你们觉得，如果哪天所有预测市场都被要求改回百分比显示，交易量会掉多少？$BICO 这两天涨幅非常惊人。 从数据上来看，现在已经有很多的空投被爆掉了。 按理来说，有这么多的空投被爆了，庄家的货应该也出完了。 我记得，之前的$UB 就是这种情况，之后$UB 就暴跌了。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，在今天中午的时候，它的合约多空比是有一次迅速的上涨的。 但是，它的合约持仓量并不是和多空比同步到达高点，而是呈现一个先上涨后下降的趋势。 我个人认为，中午的时候应该是有很多多头进场的，这些多头进场的目的就是为了爆空。 它们也确确实实做到了，因为数据显示当时是有很多空头走的。 在那个价位空头走，那其实就是说明空投被爆了。 我个人也是能够体会到的。 因为我自己也是持有它的空单，在中午的时候确实ADL 预警了，在补充了保证金之后才在ADL 平仓顺序中靠后了。 —————————————————— 我并不能确保我的判断完全正确。 但是从我自己的感觉讲，我自己确确实实是能够体会到中午的那一波杀空的。 当时$BICO 那种情况，和之前$MMT 插针差不多。 我个人认为，$BICO 应该是要见顶了。 这个位置就算不去空，也最好不要再去What's the current situation with the three storage fools? $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
What exactly is the AI storage pyramid?
This diagram actually clearly illustrates the storage system of AI servers:
The higher you go, the faster the speed and the smaller the capacity; The lower you go, the larger the capacity and the lower the cost.
SRAM: The cache inside the GPU chip. It is the fastest but has very limited capacity, mainly storing data that the GPU needs immediately.
HBM: The core high-bandwidth memory of current AI GPUs. It is responsible for quickly "feeding data" to GPUs, offering fast speed and high bandwidth, but is expensive and has limited capacity.
HBF: High Bandwidth Flash. It can be understood as a new level between HBM and SSD. It is not as fast as HBM, but has greater capacity and lower cost. In the future, it can store large AI data such as model weights and KV cache.
SSD: The largest and cheapest capacity, but relatively slow, mainly responsible for training data, model files, and cold data.
Therefore, in the future, AI servers may form:
SRAM → HBM → HBF → SSD
What truly deserves attention is HBF.
In the past, the biggest winner in AI storage was HBM; If HBF is truly commercialized, NAND could also move from ordinary storage media into high-performance AI storage systems.
This could be the next AI logic worth speculating about in the storage industry.🌙 Evening Market Report
🔴 Fed remains hawkish, September rate hike odds still above 50%.
🛢️ Oil rebounds, keeping inflation concerns alive.
📉 BTC volatility and volume have collapsed — a major move looks close.
₿ BTC stuck in the 62.5K–66.2K range.
⚠️ Volatility is exhausted, but direction remains unclear. Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls will likely decide the next breakout.
📊 Relative strength: $ETH > $BTC > $SOL
🎯 Trading Plan: • BTC: Buy support 62.2K–62.5K, trim near 66K.
• ETH: Preferred long on dips.
• SOL: Weakest chart, rallies may be short opportunities.
🧯 Don't chase moves before NFP. Wait for breakout + volume confirmation.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
�I can make it even shorter (X/Twitter style, under 280 characters) if you want.10. U.S. data center construction spending jumped 46% YoY in June to a record $68B annualized rate, the largest annual increase in 12 months. Since January 2024, spending has surged 158% and is now more than 3x higher than 2022 levels. At the same time, office construction spending has fallen by more than $25B since 2022 to roughly $43B, the lowest since 2016. Data center construction now exceeds office construction by $25B, the widest gap on record, a massive reversal from 2022 when office construction was $57B higher than data centers.
11. Trading activity in the Memory ETF $DRAM has surged to extreme levels, with daily volume reaching as high as roughly $8B, surpassing the $5B peak that ARKK hit during its 2020–2021 mania. Cumulative flows into $DRAM have climbed to around $27B, already above ARKK’s peak of roughly $18B, despite DRAM only launching in April 2026. The comparison is not perfect since DRAM tracks profitable memory chip companies rather than the mostly unprofitable growth names that dominated ARKK, and today’s rate environment is very different from 2020. Still, ARKK’s flows eventually peaked and reversed for years, while $DRAM is already down nearly 40% from its June high.
12. Alibaba $BABA reportedly plans to seek revenue sharing for the next version of its open-source Qwen AI model, while Moonshot is asking partners for up to a 30% revenue share for its Kimi K3 model, according to Reuters. The move suggests China’s leading AI labs are starting to push harder on monetization as open-source model adoption scales.
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.They all say "all negative news has been gone" and "policy uncertainty," but their bodies are honest—money really doesn't lie.
Looking at the July data: the US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow for the month was about $172 million. Not a huge flood, but the key is that it's a strong "stop-drop buyback" sentiment. On July 30 alone, BlackRock IBIT absorbed about $183 million, meaning a single product almost completely absorbed the entire month's industry net inflow. Morgan Stanley's latest 13F also pushed IBIT holdings to 5.5 million shares with a face value of about $188 million. Combined with the small tails of ARKB and GBTC, Morgan Stanley's exposure to BTC spot ETFs is no longer just a "trial waters"—it's a solid downside allocation.
So the current market is actually quite straightforward:
$BTC depends on the "certainty" of institutions—compliant channels, clear custody, and relatively low volatility. Large money entering the market should buy it first, no problem;
$ETH What he's waiting for is spillover—once the ETF stabilizes, smart money will gradually shift into the ETH staking + RWA narrative, but the pace is half a beat slower than BTC;
$SOL These high-β assets bounce the hardest when emotions rebound, but when pullbacks hurt the most, they are considered "icing on the cake" rather than "bottoming positions."
Policy talk has been coming one after another these days, but ETF subscriptions and 13F positions won't play the trick. My feeling is: this wave is still BTC taking the lead first, solidifying institutional bottom position logic; waiting for BTC to hold flat or slow push, ETF to have several weeks of net inflows stabilize, ETH to follow, SOL and a few new public chains with real income to amplify sentiment—a full relay of altcoins in full relay? We have to wait for retail account openings and on-chain activity to return; for now, it's still a breath of fresh air.
Simply put: BTC is the "anchor for institutions to vote with their feet," while altcoins are "amplifiers of sentiment recovery." The order is likely to remain the same; don't expect a single good news to rotate out of order.In January 2025, Bitcoin broke through 109588, marking the end of the phase bull market and falling until bottoming out in April
During the same period, Ethereum fell from 4100 to a staggering 1385
From the current perspective, you should clear your positions promptly before January
But in real conditions, selling is a very difficult event—harder than bottom-fishing in a bear market.
Let's look at what happened at that time
Institutions unanimously expect $200,000: Bernstein, Standard Chartered, ARK, and Deutsche Bank have released reports almost simultaneously, setting a target price of $200,000 for Bitcoin in 2025, citing triple drivers such as pension fund entry, deepening institutional allocation, and favorable policies
Trump's policies have only just begun: the market generally believes that taking office is just the beginning, with a series of policy dividends such as the stablecoin bill, the introduction of 401k pension funds, and the Bitcoin strategic reserve, making the narrative far from being realized.
ETF funds continue to flow in: for the entire month of January, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.3 billion, while BlackRock alone saw $3.2 billion in inflows, indicating a steady stream of institutional buying
The four-year cycle model says the top is still early. : The halving is in April 2024. According to historical patterns, the top is 12–18 months after the halving, that is, from mid to the end of 2025, with January only being the ninth month. According to this model, at that time it was not just a top but was halfway up the mountain
These views weren't made up afterward; they were publicly available information you could see every day at the time. When you're in the midst of them, you naturally feel the bull market is still early, and now it's only halfway up, making it hard to actively think the market is ending.
This is the first hurdle: the whole world is full of good news, and there's no reason to sell
More importantly, the mainstream interpretation of the January decline at the time was "reversing the car to catch the driver" and deleveraging to lighten the car and pave the way for a rise
Because every bull market main upward wave experiences two or three rounds of sideways consolidation, and each consolidation is considered bearish; in reality, this is just a temporary adjustment
But after many times, it creates a wolf effect. When a real bear market declines, people think it's a correction, which creates a kind of mindset.
This is the second hurdle: ignoring risk, all declines are an ingrained belief in shakeouts
We all know that the bear market decline before April 2025 was due to Trump's tariff policies
However, at the beginning of 2025, almost no one regarded tariffs as a core variable accelerating the bear market
It wasn't until February 2025, when the market saw its first large-scale crash and crashed, that the market truly began to take it seriously; By April, when global reciprocal tariffs were fully implemented, Bitcoin bottomed out, and during the same period, altcoins fell for a full four months, even dropping as much as 80%.
This is the third hurdle. You can't know the real bad news in a bear market, but it will definitely appear
Therefore, relying on so-called news and analysis to cash out in a bull market is extremely difficult
When it's time to sell, the whole world is good news; by the time bad news comes, the bear market is already halfway over. Selling then will be even harder, since everyone hates loss
So don't spend too much energy on external factors like narrative and news aspects
What's truly useful is paying attention to the chip structure, which brings us back to our old viewpoint
The fundamental reason for the end of a bull market is the drying up of buying demand,
The fundamental factor behind the sluggish buying is "price consensus"
In 2025, Ethereum consolidated sideways at 3800. When it broke below the consolidation, most started to panic, but then recovered the next day and never looked back, breaking through 4700.
The critical moment came. After the 3800 wave ended, good news kept coming, especially Tome Lee repeatedly saying Ethereum would break 10,000 by year-end. Everyone knew he was boasting; most people thought 6000-8000 was a reasonable target, and then an anchor point was formed: Ethereum was aiming for 6000, and news kept spreading this price
More and more people believe and buy, but as a result, buying runs dry, and the bull market ends
So, when a price consensus is reached, it's time to start reducing positions—selling more as prices rise, selling regularly, just like regular investing, just selling off
Because you have a position, you are part of this market, and your ideas can represent the public's perspective. So you will have the same price anchor as the masses, but our actions will become selling, rather than continuing to believe like the masses
So I have summarized several more detailed points below
1. Everyone firmly believes the bull market is coming
2. Volkswagen began to agree on a higher price anchor
3. No longer fearing a downturn; thinking it is just a pullback to clear leverage
When these signals appear, don't worry about any positive news. Sell firmly, don't be afraid to sell early. Selling early still keeps your rationality. What's truly scary is the top. Selling feels like betrayal, as if you were wrong, and you might even buy back uncontrollably, causing even greater losses
I believe in these words more: selling a flight makes a profit, fleeing from the top is a disaster
Now that the bear market is in August, a bull market is bound to come. The purpose of writing this article is to prepare for the next bull market
We hope to stay clear-headed at the end of the bull market and secure profits in time
In the crypto world, compound interest comes from realization, not necessarily long-term holding. #HormuzNegotiations have progressed. Has oil price risk cooled down? #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook: #标普收盘再创新高. Expectations for 8,000 points have risen #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the risk of oil prices cooled down?
Core judgment: The positive signals from the Hormuz negotiations drove oil prices plunging over 7% in a week, but for BTC and ETH, the logic of "falling oil prices = easing inflation = lower rate hike expectations" is fragile—the protocol itself is full of holes, and once it falls, risk assets will be driven back by the price increases.
On August 4, U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent made a high-profile statement that "an agreement will be reached in two days today," causing WTI to plunge 5.7% to $75.77 that day, and Brent to fall below $80. WTI fell 7.67% the following week. Iran and Oman have clarified the overall framework of the agreement, and the final text is expected to be released soon.
However, the agreement details are deeply divided—Iran charges a 5%-7% toll, Oman negotiates 3%, and the U.S. insists on zero charge. Iran denies direct negotiations with the U.S., and the U.S. military continues to maintain a maritime blockade. Currently, fewer than 10 oil tankers pass through daily, far below normal levels.
For BTC and ETH, the logic behind the oil price drop is that "inflationary pressures ease→ the probability of rate hikes decreases→ risk assets rise," and BTC once broke through $65,300. But the agreement could turn hostile at any time. If negotiations break down and Iran makes another move, there is considerable room for a rebound after a sharp drop in oil prices—when inflation expectations rise and risk appetite reverses, BTC's $65,300 could be the top of this rebound. 📊 Whale wallets aren't waiting for confirmation
BitMine has quietly built a 5.8M $ETH stack — over 4.3% of total supply — adding another 10.4K ETH just last week. CryptoQuant confirms it's not isolated: mid-size ETH wallets (10K-100K) just hit a record 19.6M coins held.
Spot ETFs are backing the trend too: $244M into BTC funds and $61M into ETH funds in a single day (Aug 5), BlackRock leading both.
The macro backdrop is actually cut-friendly, not restrictive — July payrolls badly missed estimates, pushing rate-cut odds higher for September rather than hike fears.
Real accumulation + softening macro = a setup worth watching, not assuming.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound $BTC $ETH
Source: BitMine holdings (CoinDesk, Aug 3); CryptoQuant whale data; Farside ETF flow data (Aug 5); July payrolls reportBuying the right coin, holding it for a whole month, watching it stay flat — while $ADA surged nearly 20% in just one week. That’s the current market: $BTC hovering around $64k, more than 48% below its previous peak, but the money flow isn’t standing still — it’s moving very selectively. While small memes like $PONS, $WKC, $HEI are heating up, the privacy group $ZEC (+12%/week) and $XMR are quietly breaking out; conversely, $ONDO and the RWA group are down -10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, $PEPE are in a tug of war.
One perspective says this is smart money rotating — altcoins with their own stories are still winning big. But another view argues that the $ZEC, $ADA wave is just a short-term shift in a market lacking liquidity: until $BTC breaks its peak, altcoins won’t have a strong, sustainable rally.
In my opinion, what matters isn’t the price, but the money flowing into defensive groups — privacy and even gold tokens like $XAUT rising 7%/week. That’s a risk-off mentality, not an altseason. Altseason might not be gone, but fragmented into waves by sector — those who pick the right group win, those holding “good” coins waiting for a big surge might wait forever.
If you could only hold 1 coin until the end of the month, you
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs SpaceX passed its first unlock test, but not yet its valuation test.
Shares rose 6.1% to $114.92 on Aug 6 even as up to 911.5M shares became eligible for sale, more than the roughly 638.9M shares sold in its IPO. The rebound followed a nearly 14% drop the previous day, while the stock remains below its $135 offering price.
Its first post-IPO earnings report delivered a clear top-line beat:
· Revenue reached $7.8B, up more than 90% YoY
· Net loss narrowed to $541M, or $0.09 per share, less than half analysts expected
· AI revenue reached $2.56B, up 247% YoY
SpaceX now reports AI as a core segment following its February acquisition of xAI, bringing xAI, Grok and X into the broader business.
But Starlink remains the current revenue engine. The connectivity segment generated $4.29B, up 66% YoY and accounting for more than half of total revenue, while Starlink subscribers doubled to around 12M.
The spending side changed the conversation. Total quarterly capex climbed to about $18.3B, with roughly $15.8B directed toward AI infrastructure, more than double the previous quarter and significantly above current quarterly AI revenue.
That comparison does not capture the multi-year value of infrastructure, but it shows the scale of the upfront buildout. Investors are increasingly separating rapid AI demand from the cost of delivering it.
The unlock also requires context. Shares becoming eligible for sale does not mean all of them were sold on Aug 6. The rebound shows the market absorbed the first day of potential supply, not that selling pressure has disappeared.
Aug 6 was only the first staged release. Additional tranches remain under the IPO lockup schedule, while Elon Musk’s shares are subject to a 366-day lockup.
The next test is whether Starlink’s revenue base and rapid AI growth can support higher capex before more shares become available.
Which signal matters more now: AI revenue converting into stronger margins, or continued absorption of the unlocked supply?
#SpaceXUnlockRebound #AIMemoryBullTest Seeing $SPCX's -1027% loss rate, I stared at the screen for three seconds, then smiled helplessly.
75x leverage, 18.4U margin, unrealized loss of 160U.
The ratio is shocking, and the amount is painfully real.
That damn SPCX, as soon as the news of the unban came out, I didn't even think about it and shorted it—116.94.
At the time, I felt confident—wouldn't unlocking the ban be bad news?
But it jumped straight to 134.48, like a slap in my face.
A 30% increase combined with 75x leverage, it's normal that 18.4U couldn't hold up.
Do you really believe Musk's Planet Plan?
It doesn't matter, the market is convinced.
Prices range from 116 to 134, that's the reality.
My short position was buried with 160U, which is also true.
The most useless thing in trading is "I think"—
I think unlocking is bearish, but it went up.
I think it's time for a pullback, and it keeps pushing upward.
I think Musk is just making empty promises; the market is taking it seriously.
The market never cares what I think; it only cares where the money flows.
The 1-hour MACD red bars on the chart started to shrink, ranging sideways between 134-132, indicating the bullish momentum is weakening.
This trade is left unchanged now; if it pulls back to 130, it will reduce losses; if it breaks 135, it will close and exit.
The 160U lost money, but not too much or less, but it can still hold up.
It's pretty funny to think about it—clearly planning to grab a pullback, but the market just keeps pushing you to the floor.
The most magical part is that the direction of this order is completely opposite to the market's direction,
Instead, it made me much clearer—I was gambling, not trading.
$BEAT rose 26%, from 1.608 to 2.598, just as strong as the wave the day before yesterday.
The bulls are unstoppable; this kind of trend absolutely cannot be counter-trending to short sellers.
$RE is also decent, bottoming at 0.371, V-shaped reversal up 16%, MACD golden cross.
If it doesn't break below 0.40 on the pullback, you can try going long.
The most valuable thing in this deal isn't the profit or loss, but the lesson of 75x leverage—
A 3% reverse fluctuation resets to zero. If you convert it to 100U of principal, you'd be enjoying the wind on the rooftop now.
Leave the SPCX order hanging, whether it explodes or not.
But I still want to know, how long can this planetary plan last?
The faster you pull, the more pain it hurts when you hit.
Either someone is lying in wait in advance for the ban to be lifted and shipments are being lifted,
or speculative capital will use news to force a push,
No matter which one it is, it's not something I can bet on.
It's the weekend, so the market is the market, and I am the same.
If you lose, then accept it.
This order hangs there; if it blows up, it's its fate; if it returns, it's its luck.
I watch my show, and it follows its own path.
Each has their own way.#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
The S&P 500 has once again hit a new all-time closing high, several Wall Street institutions have raised their year-end targets, and market expectations for 8,000 points continue to ferment. An interesting market phenomenon: US stocks are rising steadily, but Bitcoin has not exploded in tandem, showing a clear divergence between strength and weakness. Many insiders are asking: Why doesn't Bitcoin follow the US stock market during a bull market? If 8,000 points are realized, can the crypto world reap the dividends?
Let's first clarify the underlying logic behind this round of US stock market rally. This round of rally is not simply about injecting liquidity to hype valuations; the core driving force comes from AI-driven upward revisions in corporate earnings. Leading tech companies' earnings reports continue to beat expectations, and the market has revised future earnings per share forecasts. Even if valuations haven't expanded significantly, rising earnings still push the index higher.
But at the same time, there are objective risks: the market is highly concentrated in a few AI-heavyweight stocks, with poor market breadth; Although institutions have set an 8,000-point target, almost all of them warn that the rise will not be straight, and there is a significant risk of a significant correction in the fall; The biggest constraints remain inflation data and Federal Reserve policies. If inflation rebounds and high interest rates persist, it will directly suppress the upside of US stocks.
Breaking down these two scenarios, we can understand US stocks and understand the transmission of Bitcoin.
Scenario 1: Continued earnings realization, S&P steadily advancing toward 8,000 points (Benchmark Optimism scenario)
AI companies' earnings reports continue to exceed expectations, inflation is moderately easing, the market is trading expectations for rate cuts, and overall risk appetite remains high.
- U.S. growth assets continue to strengthen, with institutional risk appetite opening up;
- Some capital will spill over into the crypto market, providing emotional support for Bitcoin.
Key practical issue: This round of US stock market rally funds has largely accumulated in domestic US stocks rather than large-scale flows into crypto, resulting in a "US stock market surge, Bitcoin oscillating and recovering, but it is difficult to break out of the violent, unilateral rally" differentiated situation.
Scenario 2: 8000 points is just a narrative, with a sharp pullback midway (risk scenario)
CPI inflation rebounds again, wages rise again, and the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates; or AI companies may have earnings below expectations, leading heavyweight stocks to collectively sell valuations.
- The S&P has entered a deep pullback, with risk appetite shrinking rapidly;
- As a high-beta risk asset, Bitcoin tends to face greater volatility pressure, with pullbacks often larger than those in US stock indices.
A very important misconception: Don't assume that just because US stocks hit new highs, Bitcoin will definitely surge. Recently, the correlation between the two has clearly declined. US stocks are driven by AI corporate earnings, while Bitcoin depends more on US Treasury yields, spot ETF funds, and crypto on-exchange liquidity. The logical chain is not entirely synchronized.
Additional Bitcoin market analysis
Current market status
BTC continues to fluctuate in a large box range between $63,200 and $65,200. US stocks keep hitting new highs, but inflows of Bitcoin incremental funds are limited, ETF funds are intermittent, suppressed by macro policy expectations, and have emerged from an independent grinding rally.
Key Technical Points:
Short-term resistance: 64,800-65,200 USD; only with increased volume and a stable position can there be a chance to open upward space;
First support: $63,200-$63,500, a box for bullish defensive centers;
Strong support: $62,000-$62,400; a valid break below indicates a collective weakening of risk assets.
A practical reminder for community members
1. The S&P 8000-point push is a medium- to long-term narrative; don't use the US stock market high as a direct basis for going long on Bitcoin. What truly determines the Bitcoin market are CPI inflation, US Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve's stance. US stocks are just sentiment amplifiers, not decisive factors.
2. Distinguish between two scenarios: U.S. stocks rising and falling interest rates are the real benefits for Bitcoin; If U.S. stocks rely on high interest rates to withstand profitable increases, the actual dividends for Bitcoin are very limited.
3. The market remains in a box pattern. Maintain a oscillating mindset: reduce positions near the upper boundary and light positions near the lower boundary to test long positions, avoiding high leverage and one-sided gambling.
4. Pay close attention to risks: If US stocks experience a pullback after a surge or pullback, Bitcoin's downside resilience is often greater than stocks', so risk control plans should be prepared in advance.当加密市场苦于等待下一个大叙事的时候，反观黄金，它的故事一直在持续发酵。 美股靠AI、航天、光通信不断制造新热点，加密市场在旧叙事耗尽之后陷入存量博弈，唯独黄金，不需要颠覆式创新，依靠宏观现实，持续吸引场外增量资金进场。 支撑黄金的，是两套长逻辑叠加短期催化。 第一是去美元化的长期趋势，全球央行持续增持黄金储备，把黄金当做资产安全的压舱石，这个大趋势不会因为短期涨跌而轻易改变。第二是地缘冲突常态化，世界不确定性增加，每当局势紧绷，避险资金第一选择就会流向黄金。再加上美国就业数据走弱，市场开始交易美联储降息预期，多重力量一起推着金价不断走高。 但热闹背后，要分清什么是长期逻辑，什么是短期情绪。 现在金价处在历史高位，连续快速拉升之后，超买已经十分明显。很多人看见一路上涨，害怕踏空，冲动追进去。可黄金不是只会单向上涨，一旦通胀数据超预期、美元再度走强，一轮深度回调随时会到来。 很多人有一个误区：看好黄金长期，就等于任何位置都可以重仓进场。其实不是。央行买黄金是做底仓配置，拿的是数年周期，能扛住20%级别回撤。普通散户如果抱着短线暴富心态高位冲进去，一次回调就容易心态崩盘Changle No.1 · New Version of Altcoin Short Selling Launched | Full Network Scan + Funding Rate/Long-Short Ratio Dual Congestion Signals
Purely real records, not stock recommendations or investment advice. Small capital real trading tracking and verification in progress, data continuously updated.
1. Current Status (August 8, 19:11)
Changle No.1 has been revised from BTC/ETH dual coins to [Full Network Scan Altcoins · Pure Short Selling] V3.0, now online in observation mode (analysis only, no orders placed).
This round selected 7 short signals, all daily bearish + retail crowd congestion tops:
TSLA(76), TRUMP(76), MU(70), SKHYNIX(68), HYPE(65), WLD(62), DRAM(62)
2. What Changed
· Coin selection: screened from 438 USDT perpetual contracts across the entire market, with trading volume >3 million, excluding mainstream large coins, only retaining daily bearish altcoins
· Added funding rate: positive rate = long crowd congestion favorable for shorting, negative rate = short crowd congestion veto
· Added long-short ratio: the crazier retail longs (higher long-short ratio) the more favorable for shorting — smart money goes contrarian
· Risk control: 10x leverage, 3% per position, max 10 positions, 3% stop loss, extreme diversification to prevent single coin liquidation
3. Strategy Core (Review)
Trend-following short + dual congestion confirmation. Short only in altcoins where "daily has turned bearish + retail is still greedily long" — places where long leverage clusters, bubble pressure to fall is greatest. No counter-trend, no chasing highs, no bottom fishing.
4. Honest Words
This revision learned from the old version’s lessons: old version’s 2% take profit was too narrow and got repeatedly stopped out by trend fluctuations, fixed dual coins were too concentrated. New version uses multi-coin diversification + congestion signals instead, but observation period signals have not yet been market-verified, the 7 signals are only "logically consistent," not guaranteed profitable. Current samples are all highly congested stock-like tokens (TSLA/TRUMP/SKHYNIX/MU), market chose so, recorded truthfully.
5. Next Steps
DRY_RUN observation for a few days to verify the real hit rate of these congestion short signals. When signals are continuously stable, switch to real orders, data continuously updated.
Trading involves risks, enter the market cautiously. This is just my experimental record. Manually opened BICO positions, feeling rough... $TSLA $TRUMP $MU I took the BICO long order at 16:11, and this hour it pulled back from +7.73% to +2.79%—Yaobi is faster than flipping a book.
BTC Card 65,018 (+0.08%) was stagnant all day, volume contracted by -81.6%, Funding +0.0065% neutral, OI 107,200 unchanged, Fear 30.
The most exciting capital flows: BICO turned from +5.5% to -3.88% (Binance -3.69%), last hour it was a solo dance, this hour it gave it back.
Leading the Exchange: On-chain US stock XSPCX took over at 24h +14.05%, with all large-cap coins zombie-dominated, and real volatility only in US stock token sectors.
Money moves from the coin to on-chain US stocks, while the market remains completely still—not an incremental bull market, but a robbing of existing stocks to pay Paul Paul.
By the way, self-mockery: My XSNDK short position (2X) still has a floating loss of -0.24%. Both bulls and bears are training partners.
Real review: BICO is still holding on to +2.79% and not exiting. The end of the Yaobi One-Hour Party is a signal of unity collapse.
Take this trick: Watch rotation and don't focus on the index; Meme coins shift from leading gains to leading declines, telling you earlier than any indicator that money is withdrawing.
BICO: Do you dare to take the knife during this pullback? If you dare, share your reasons in the comments; if not, talk about what you're afraid of. Don't lurk.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $BICO #OKX星球 #币种异动 #资金搬家$ONDO 項目方的收入穩定但持有代幣著只有投票資格而且每年還有大筆大筆的代幣解鎖而有可能造成大量賣壓，近期有爆發內部糾紛！真的蠻希望項目方可以好好的規劃啊😅
Ondo Finance（代幣：ONDO）作為加密貨幣市場中**現實世界資產代幣化（RWA, Real World Assets）**領域的龍頭項目，市場關注度一直極高。以下針對 Ondo 的現狀進行技術面分析與未來發展評估：
一、 技術分析現狀
從目前中期與短期圖表結構來看，ONDO 呈現以下技術特徵：
整體趨勢（中長期）：
震盪築底 / 修正階段： ONDO 在歷經高點後進入中長期的回檔與打底整理。目前多個時間軸（週線、月線）的技術指標均處於偏向觀望或承壓的狀態。
籌碼解鎖壓力： 市場需特別留意其代幣發放曲線。由於初始流通量相對較低，後續解鎖導致的市場流通供給增加，在技術面上會形成隱性的長期上檔壓力。
關鍵位階與指標：
關鍵支撐： 近期下方的心理與技術強支撐位於 0.30 - 0.35 美元 區間（若跌破可能下尋前低區間）。
關鍵壓力： 上方第一道強壓力落在 0.50 - 0.60 美元（此區間累積大量套牢籌碼及均線交會之處）。
動能指標（RSI / MACD）： 日線等級的 RSI 和 MACD 多次在低檔橫盤，顯示多頭尚未展現強烈的強攻信號，暫時以區間震盪、消化賣壓為主。
二、 未來發展與潛力優勢
Ondo 的核心價值來自於將傳統金融（TradFi）資產（如美債、貨幣市場基金）帶入 Web3 鏈上：
1. RWA 賽道的絕對龍頭地位：
旗下產品如 USDY（生息美元代幣）與 OUSG（短期美債代幣），已為加密市場提供了合規且具固定收益的鏈上資金避風港。
2. 頂級機構支持與合規優勢：
Ondo 團隊具備投資銀行背景（如高盛），並獲得 Founders Fund、Coinbase Ventures 等頂級機構投資。其合規框架在美股/美債代幣化領域屬於第一梯隊。
3. 生態拓展（Ondo Global Markets & Ondo Chain）：
Ondo 正在推動將傳統美股及更多金融衍生品帶上鏈，並著手推進合規專用鏈（Ondo Chain）與跨鏈基礎設施，嘗試打通代幣化資產在各 DeFi 協議間的流動性。
三、 未來潛在風險與挑戰
1. 代幣價值捕獲能力（Token Value Capture）：
ONDO 目前主要作為治理代幣。協議資產管理規模（TVL）的增長是否能直接轉化為 ONDO 代幣本身的實質需求與賦能，仍是市場質疑的重點之一。
2. 高 FDV（完全稀釋估值）與解鎖拋壓：
ONDO 總發行量上限為 100 億枚。未來幾年內團隊、投資人及生態基金的代幣解鎖釋放，會大幅增加市場的實質供給。
3. 傳統金融巨頭的直接競爭：
隨著 BlackRock（貝萊德）、Franklin Templeton 等傳統金融巨頭加速佈局 RWA 賽道，Ondo 將面臨傳統金融機構「親自下場」的競爭壓力。
總結建議
短期操作： 技術面目前處於沉澱期，建議觀察是否能於 0.30 - 0.35 美元 關鍵支撐區有效打底並出現築底反彈訊號，不宜盲目追高。
長期佈局： Ondo 基本面非常堅實，是關注 RWA 賽道不可或缺的標的。長期投資者需重點關注：代幣解鎖時程、傳統監管法規進展，以及 Ondo 能否賦能代幣更多實質收益。 🇺🇸 MACRO NEWS
Trump Media just pulled out of crypto, canceling the $CRO treasury deal with Crypto.com
Another blow to the "treasury boom" that once lifted the entire market. $CRO dropped -3.6% today, -5.4% this week, and Trump-adjacent tokens like $TRUMP, $WLFI (currently at bottom territory, -84% from ATH) are losing momentum.
At the same time, the U.S. Treasury expands sanctions on Iran, targeting two exchanges related to $USDT liquidity — short-term liquidity risk, but pushing more funds into "clean" institutional assets like $XAUT/$PAXG and privacy coins like $ZEC.
Forecast: political meme tokens will continue to face pressure, tokenized gold and privacy coins will keep attracting defensive flows, and $BTC is unlikely to break out in the short term.
What do you think, is Trump Media's "retreat" bad news for the whole market or just a political bubble popping in the right place?
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus The Coldcard vulnerability losses are still expanding, affecting about 4,500 addresses with a total close to $89 million. But the most noteworthy issue is not the numbers, but that the problem lies in the moment the wallet generates the mnemonic.
Many stolen wallets were never connected to the internet, and the devices were not taken. The old Coldcard firmware had insufficient randomness when generating seeds; some Mk3 firmware versions may have only about 40 bits of entropy left, while some older versions of other models have about 72 bits, whereas the target should be at least 128 bits. Attackers only need to know the pattern of seed generation in the old firmware, repeatedly calculate possible seeds and derive addresses, and when they find one with a balance, they directly obtain the private key.
Therefore, upgrading the firmware does not save old wallets. The official fix released on July 31 only addresses new seeds going forward; the private key space was fixed at the moment the old mnemonic was created, and upgrading will not increase randomness.
Many people understand cold wallet security as the private key not being online, which is correct, but that only solves how to store the key after generation, not how the private key is generated. If the random number generation phase is flawed, then even offline storage is just safeguarding a key that is easy to guess. All these on-chain transactions are legitimate; the blockchain cannot verify whether the key was computed. Not your keys not your coins addresses exchange risks; this time the warning is that risks do not disappear after self-custody, they just become trusting that the entire process has no vulnerabilities. How those 24 words are generated is as important as how they are protected.
#Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 Why am I bearish on ETH? Say something human
First quote: Currently, ETH is around $1,900, with a high point of over 4,900 last year, and it has already been cut off. But I don't think it's over yet. Here are a few reasons that even beginners can understand:
1. The "Deflation Myth" is broken
The biggest story of ETH in the past was "destruction > output = less and less = more and more valuable". What about now? L2 has lost all the fees. It only takes 0.22 ETH a week to destroy, and it hasn't been pledged yet. The annual supply is still increasing by 0.85%, and deflation has turned into inflation. The story cannot continue.
2. Compared to BTC, ETH is a brother
The ETH/BTC ratio has hit a new low in several years. The meaning is that for cryptocurrencies, funds are more willing to buy BTC rather than ETH. The position of the second is getting more and more unsteady.
3. The big man is running
Spot ETH ETFs have been continuously experiencing net outflows, and institutions are voting with their feet. With such high yields on US bonds, isn't it good to make 5% profits while lying down? Why take the risk of a 2.6% pledge return? Smart money has gone to a safer place.
4. The technical side is unsightly
2000 The knife did not pass twice, forming a double top. Now it's in the downward channel, and once it breaks through the key support, it's down to 1600 or even 1500. When the lever plate explodes, there is no bottom to step on.
5. Stablecoins are withdrawing
USDC's stablecoins continue to flow out of exchanges, indicating that the entire market is getting fewer bullets. There's no water. How does the boat float?
In summary, it's not that ETH is going to zero, but rather that there is no strong logic of an increase in the short term. The narrative is broken, funds are withdrawn, and technical aspects are broken. Under the triple pressure, shorting has a higher winning rate than longing.
⚠️ The above are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Contract risks are high, novices should not touch high leverage.$ETH Today is the weekend. Last night's nonfarm payroll was actually quite generous—expected +80,000, actual -23,000, employment turned negative, and according to the old script, BTC should fly alongside gold.
So what happened? Today was Saturday's liquidity shriveled. $BTC failed to get past the 65,000 mark three times last night, so today I just gave up, grinding between 64,000 and 65,000 all day, with volatility below 1%. Even holding 100x contracts, I didn't feel any volatility...
Gold surged 2.5%, while BTC seemed to have been put on silent.
There's a reason for that—the US stock market was pausing during the weekend Asian session, and market makers didn't want to waste money at this point. The nonfarm payroll positive news is on the table for now, waiting to see who picks up on Monday.
If it's sideways, then so be it. At least it hasn't surged, which is better than reckless movement. Keep holding short positions and see how things goSanDisk delivered a report card that shut all the bears off, with revenue soaring to $8.97 billion, a quarter-on-quarter surge of 51%, and a staggering 372% year-on-year. Gross margin was 84.6%, earnings per share were $39.25—every figure pushed the boundaries of imagination. But the market is just that unreasonable—the more impressive the earnings report, the harder the stock price crashes after hours. It's not that SanDisk is losing its place, but that AI players are overcrowded. Simply beating expectations is no longer enough; the market wants to exceed expectations and deliver even more terrifying slopes every quarter in the future. Shifting back to the crypto world, the same drama plays out every day. $BTC repeatedly rubbed around $65,000, $ETH was caught gasping at $1,922; beneath the seemingly calm surface, there was a battle of expectations. AI narratives have indeed brought real demand to the storage sector. SanDisk's explosive performance is solid evidence, but once the good story has been told by everyone, marginal growth becomes the only thing that can stimulate the market. Those storage tokens branded as AI, such as decentralized storage projects, may remain active in the short term riding this trend, but once the market shrinks or a giant's earnings report floppes, the correction won't be much milder than SanDisk's drop. The market is currently in an awkward sweet period; fundamentals are improving, but prices have already priced in the improvements. SanDisk's 372% year-on-year growth earned a bearish candlestick, showing that capital is not foolish and only willing to pay for disappointing expectations. #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market stable? ##非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
As soon as the weekend arrived, BTC and ETH started trading sideways again $BTC $ETH
BTC fluctuated around 65,000, ETH surged to 1944, then returned to the 1910–1920 range.
US stocks and spot ETFs were closed over the weekend, with institutional incremental funds temporarily absent; The sentiment brought by Friday's nonfarm payrolls had already traded once, and the market is once again waiting for next week's CPI, so neither bulls nor bears are willing to continue pushing in the middle of the range.
This nonfarm payroll has indeed impacted price increases.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, while the market had expected an increase of 80,000; meanwhile, data for the previous two months was revised down by 103,000 jobs.
After the clear cooling in employment, the market quickly lowered expectations for the Fed to continue raising rates in September, causing the dollar and Treasury yields to retreat and risk assets to rebound overall.
BTC surged to around 65,300, and ETH, riding market sentiment and short covering, briefly pushed to 1944.
But weak non-farm payrolls are not purely unilateral positive news.
On one hand, it reduces the pressure to continue raising rates; On the other hand, employment is starting to turn negative, which also increases market concerns about an economic slowdown. Coupled with inflation still elevated and CPI not yet released next week, it remains uncertain whether the Fed will truly pivot.
So after the positive news pushed the price to the resistance level, subsequent buying did not keep up.
BTC failed to hold above 65,300, ETH failed to break through 1930–1945, and profit-taking began to be realized; After the weekend, ETF funds temporarily paused, and the market naturally retreated to its original box.
Next, let's focus on:
✔ BTC holds above 65,300, ETH breaks through 1945, and continues to watch 1960–1980
✔ BTC has fallen below 64,000, and ETH is very likely to retest 1900–1890
✔ ETH has fallen below 1890, then look for 1870–1880
Currently, it is still a period of recovery supported by capital, and a new round of gains cannot yet be confirmed.
The non-farm market stepped on the accelerator, but the resistance level didn't break through, and the car drove back to the parking lot.
Currently, 1910–1920 is stuck right in the middle of the range. Going long has resistance at the top above, short selling has support below, but the price-to-loss ratio is not ideal.
Weekends are the easiest way to make people want to move sideways, but what you really need to do now is wait for your spot, not blindly enter for a sense of participation.SanDisk sndkusdt
- Monday (8/4): After earnings exceeded expectations, it rebounded violently, closing at 1427.62 (+10.8%), but volume was insufficient and divergence began to emerge
- Tuesday (8/5): Surged then retreated, closing at 1350.5 (-5.4%). Institutions began lowering target prices, and sentiment turned cautious
- Wednesday (8/6): Plunged on high volume, closing at 1258.58 (-6.81%), turnover at 24.2 billion, the second highest recently, triggering panic trading
- Thursday (8/7): Continued decline, closing at 1212.21 (-3.68%), down about 48% from the June high, approaching the technical oversold zone
Key Feature: Earnings exceeding expectations but triggered by "positive news sales," closing the weekly session with a long bearish candle, forming a typical Davis double blow (valuation reduction + sentiment sell-off).
2. Market sentiment and capital flow analysis
Sentiment indicators
- The Fear Index (VIX) surged 28% this week, with the storage sector at the center of volatility, and SanDisk's single-day swing sustained at 10%+
- Options market: The put/call ratio (PCR) rose to 1.78, a nearly three-month high, with bearish sentiment reaching an extreme point
- Social Media: From "AI storage supercycle" to "cycle peak" and "inventory backlog," with pessimism dominating
Capital flows
- Institutional funds: Goldman Sachs and Bank of America maintain their buys, but Jefferies lowers target prices from 3000→1750 to Citigroup's 2500→2100, a reduction of over 15%, indicating concerns about the price increase slope
- Insider trading: In the past 90 days, executives sold a net $9.99 million, with 8/3 director Bernard Shek selling 600 shares, signaling caution
- Quantitative funds: Passive index funds continue to reduce holdings due to S&P 500/Nasdaq 100 weight adjustments, intensifying short-term selling pressure
- Smart money signal: From 8/6 to 8/7, signs of institutional bottom-fishing appeared, with giants like BlackRock and State Street increasing their holdings slightly, attempting to establish new positions in the $1200 range
3. Next Week's Trend Prediction (Three Scenarios)
Baseline scenario (70% probability): Bottoming out with a consolidation + weak rebound
- Monday: Inertia tests strong support at $1150 (50% retracement level of the June uptrend); if holding, it triggers a technical rebound
- Tuesday–Thursday: Fluctuating between 1150-1280, trading volume gradually shrinking, bearish strength waning, bulls attempting to form a counterattack
- Friday: May close with a small bullish candlestick, with a doji pattern with a long lower shadow on the weekly chart, laying the groundwork for a subsequent rebound
Core logic: Current valuations have already priced in some cyclical concerns (PE dropped to 16.4x), but demand for AI storage remains, supported by a $14 billion buyback plan; at the same time, although NAND price increases have slowed, enterprise-grade SSDs remain in short supply, and fundamentals have not collapsed.Funds have been trading in the $CRCL $60 to $63 range, with the core conflict being the long-term pricing of on-chain US dollar settlement channels and the short-term risk of interest rate spread shrinkage.
The market is showing spot turnover support near $63, showing signs of medium- to long-term funds accumulating at this level. Derivatives and capital flows indicate that the market is repricing Circle's financial infrastructure attributes, but expectations of Fed rate cuts still suppress reserve yields.
The priorities driven by capital flows are: opening up traditional financial channels under the National Trust Bank license framework, expanding liquidity network effects on USDC chains, and changes in reserve asset interest income. Rate cuts directly narrow reserve interest spreads, but the depth of access to capital channels determines the upper limit of the valuation center.
The upward scenario is based on the assumption that the price holds above $60 and on-chain settlement volume continues to grow. The trigger condition is for institutional funds to complete turnover and form support in the $60 to $63 range. The variable to watch is the average daily on-chain dollar settlement flow; if it falls below $60, the scenario is declared invalid.
The downward scenario is based on the Fed's rate cuts causing a sharp reduction in reserve interest income and industry competition eroding the spread. The trigger condition is that the net interest margin narrowing faster than expected; the variable to watch is changes in reserve yields. If non-interest income is generated through bank licenses, the downward scenario will become invalid.
The overall logical failure condition lies in an unfavorable shift in the stablecoin regulatory framework, or if competitors cut off its network effects. If the value of the underlying settlement channel is weakened, the current chip accumulation will lose support.
In the next 7 days, focus should be paid to $CRCL net capital flows near the $60 mark, as well as the outcome of the on-chain dollar settlement volume and the outcome of the game between the Fed's rate cut expectations.
#黄金升破4300美元, are funds on edge or are they cutting interest rates or hedgeing risks? #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, pressure to invest in AI is heating up. #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook"U.S. Stock Market High-Level Fluctuations and BTC Threshold Defense: Breaking Down the 'Double Bet' Logic of Institutional Funds"
1. Macro Mirror: "Capital Diversion" in a High-Interest Environment
US Stocks: Defensive vs. High Valuation Battle
The S&P and Nasdaq remain volatile at high levels, while the stickiness of long-term Treasury yields puts pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. Funds are gradually shifting from small-cap, high-risk stocks to big tech and high-dividend sectors with strong cash flow, showing a clear defensive rotation.
Crypto: Institutions buying dips while retail investors are waiting
Compared to retail investors' cautious and wait-and-see sentiment, spot ETFs have consistently recorded net capital inflows. This indicates that traditional compliant institutions are viewing the current consolidation range as a stage value bottom for medium- to long-term allocation, forming a pattern of "retail investors hesitating, institutions accumulating shares."
2. What new strategies are institutions playing?
The simple linkage of "US stocks surging = crypto world surge" has been broken, and institutions are now adopting more refined hedging strategies:
1. US Stocks Take a Defensive Position: Focus on cash-flowing tech giants (Big Tech) and high-dividend value targets to provide stable underlying returns.
2. Crypto for offense/hedging: Reduce exposure to long-tail, high-risk altcoins, concentrate risk budgets heavily on BTC/ETH spot and derivatives, and capture volatility premiums.
3. US Stock Crypto Concept Stocks: By leveraging targets like MSTR and COIN to connect traditional US stock accounts with crypto asset returns, two-way arbitrage is achieved.
📌 Investors are focusing on key points today
Technical offense and defense: BTC needs to hold the $65,000 - $65,600 resistance zone with increased volume to establish a new upward channel; Below $63,000 is short-term strong support.
Macro disturbances: Closely monitor upcoming PCE/CPI inflation data and oil price trends, as these determine the Fed's rate cut window and liquidity release pace.#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 非农爆冷，而市场真正交易的而是美联储的下一步。
7月非农就业减少2.3万人，远低于市场预期，同时5月、6月数据合计下修10.3万人，这说明美国劳动力市场正在快速降温。
但这里有一个细节，失业率反而降到4.1%，并不是因为经济强，而是劳动参与率下降带来的结果。简单来说，美国就业市场不是突然变好，而是正在慢慢失去动力。
这次非农最大的意义，是给美联储释放了一个信号
-继续维持高利率的压力正在下降。
过去市场最大的矛盾是，通胀不下来，美联储不敢降息，就业一旦开始恶化，美联储又不能继续强压经济。
现在天平正在发生变化。
如果下周CPI继续降温，那么9月政策转向预期会进一步升温，美元和美债收益率可能承压。
对于市场来说
$BTC 短期偏利好。比特币本质上吃流动性，一旦市场开始交易降息预期，风险资金回流，BTC有机会迎来新一轮反弹。
美股$SNDK 同样受益，尤其AI、科技股，高估值资产对利率最敏感。但如果后续经济数据持续恶化，市场也可能从“降息交易”切换成“衰退交易”。
黄金$XAU 则继续享受双重逻辑，弱就业+降息预期，都会推动资金继续配置避险资产。
以上仅个人观点，包括个人交易仓位测试，不构成任何投资建议！Buying the right coin, holding it for a whole month, watching it stay flat — while $ADA surged nearly 20% in just one week. That’s the current market: $BTC hovering around $64k, more than 48% below its previous peak, but the money flow isn’t standing still — it’s moving very selectively. While small memes like $PONS, $WKC, $HEI are heating up, the privacy group $ZEC (+12%/week) and $XMR are quietly breaking out; conversely, $ONDO and the RWA group are down -10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, $PEPE are in a tug of war.
One perspective says this is smart money rotating — altcoins with their own stories are still winning big. But another view argues that the $ZEC, $ADA wave is just a short-term shift in a market lacking liquidity: until $BTC breaks its peak, altcoins won’t have a strong, sustainable rally.
In my opinion, what matters isn’t the price, but the money flowing into defensive groups — privacy and even gold tokens like $XAUT rising 7%/week. That’s a risk-off mentality, not an altseason. Altseason might not be gone, but fragmented into waves by sector — those who pick the right group win, those holding “good” coins waiting for a big surge might wait forever.
If you could only hold 1 coin until the end of the month, you
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound 功德+1，参议院在夏季休会前算是办了一件大事，大大减缓了10月1日可能因为国会博弈造成的政府停摆可能性
相信去年的美国历史上最长政府停摆事件还是历历在目，所以对于国会议员来说，如果不能提前避免政府停摆，其他事项都会被延后推动
而这个事情，对《清晰法案》本身是一个重要利好，这意味着9月14日后美国参议院有更多的时间来推动清晰法案了。
而对于宏观来说，9月份的政治风险减少一个，让市场聚焦点集中在宏观经济数据、利率调整与中期选举上，减少了一个不确定性！#CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 "Things I Can't Finish, No Words to Say Forcefully"
📈 Market Divergence Analysis | Gold surges violently, breaking new highs, $BTC trend is significantly weak and lagging behind
$XAU international spot gold has recently shown a strong one-sided trend, with prices surging yesterday to hold above the $4,339 mark, with a weekly increase exceeding 7%. This surge has sparked heated market discussion: Has a new round of gold super bull cycles officially begun?
In my view, this round of gold price surge is by no means just a short-term rebound driven by technical breakthroughs; essentially, it is a systemic act of global capital collectively shifting toward safe-haven assets and reallocating safe assets, with three layers of logic behind it being quite robust:
🔹 Logic One: Weakening U.S. employment, rate cut expectations support gold prices as the core logic
U.S. employment data continues to cool, and a weakening labor market has greatly increased market sentiment betting on a shift in Fed monetary policy. Weak employment directly undermines the Fed's confidence in continuing rate hikes, putting pressure on both the U.S. dollar index and real U.S. Treasury yields under pressure; Gold, as a non-interest-free safe-haven asset, has a weak dollar + low real interest rates as the most favorable macro environment, with strong fundamental support.
🔹 Logic Two: Global uncertainty surges, with safe-haven buying continuing to pour in
Currently, global geopolitical tensions, energy price fluctuations, and fiscal deficit pressures in various countries are coexisting, and the demand for safe havens for funds continues to grow. Currently, buying gold is no longer just about playing the price of candlestick movements; it is more about hedging against potential risks of currency and credit depreciation and economic cycle downturns, making it a solid long-term safe-haven allocation.
🔹 Logic Three: Institutional funds are leading the long position, not retail investors following the crowd
From the position data, long positions in gold are steadily rebounding. The main force behind this round of gains is large institutional funds building positions in batches, rather than retail investors chasing gains, so the base for the rise will be more solid.
⚠️ Gold market risk alert
However, we should not blindly go long on gold or assume the bull market will continue permanently. After a short period of consecutive surges, bullish sentiment in the market has already overheated up. To maintain strong momentum, two key indicators must be closely watched: Federal Reserve officials' statements and inflation data trends. If policy expectations reverse, gold prices are likely to pull back and absorb gains.
🆚 Horizontal comparison: Both are safe-haven assets, but BTC has significantly underperformed gold
On the other hand, $BTC and Bitcoin have shown a strong contrast, with recent market trends clearly weaker than gold.
Also carrying a risk-averse narrative, gold successfully hit a two-month high, while Bitcoin has yet to break through effectively. The divergence between the two clearly reflects capital choice preferences: whenever market panic rises and overall risk appetite contracts, the primary safe haven choice for capital is always traditional gold, not crypto assets.
This is enough to show that Bitcoin still hasn't obtained the safe-haven certification for traditional financial funds, and the market still positions it as a high-volatility risk asset.
💡 Market Outlook Summary
This round of gold rally essentially signals that global funds are switching to defensive allocation; For Bitcoin to return to a strong rally, two major conditions must be met: the return of overall market liquidity and the warming of risk appetite across the market.
The short-term outlook is now very clear: gold maintains strong dominance, $BTC is weak and volatile, and the flow of funds has already been answered.
$ETH #黄金升破4300美元, are funds on hold to cut rates or to hedge risks? #非农意外转负, CPI is key to rate hikes 🔥 Progress has been made in the Hormuz negotiations, but has the risk of oil prices really cooled down?
Let's start with good news. Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the shipping route, and a new navigation plan is being finalized. Trump also said the negotiations are "progressing well," and it looks like this global oil lifeline may resume access. Brent crude oil had previously surged due to geopolitical tensions, but now that negotiations have made progress, market sentiment has indeed eased considerably.
But if you think the oil price risk will just pass, you might be a bit naive.
A few key details are worth savoring.
First, Trump himself said, "We cannot yet say it has been officially achieved." In other words, all the "progress" is still on paper, still far from being officially signed. In the Middle East, there are countless examples of consensus at the negotiating table going from execution to failure.
Second, the core differences have not been resolved at all. The U.S. demands free and free navigation, while Iran wants control and possibly a "service fee." Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister has even declared that the new shipping route is "different from the past 60 years" and will pass through Iranian territorial waters. What does this mean? It means that even if the straits reopen, the rules of passage will change, costs may be higher, and uncertainty may increase.
Third, the Iranian parliament is reviewing a bill to restrict passage for US and Israeli vessels. Such a move at this critical moment shows that Iran's hardliners are not buying it. Negotiators negotiate well in Oman, only to be tripped up by parliament later; this kind of internal and external rivalry is common in Iran.
So the reaction to oil prices is quite interesting. After the news of the negotiations broke, oil prices did pull back, but after the announcement from the Iranian parliament on August 6, Brent crude rose another $3 to $82.49. The market is repeatedly weighing two scenarios: "reaching an agreement" and "uncertainty in the agreement."
For the crypto community, the chain of impact of this matter is as follows:
Smooth navigation in Hormuz → oil prices fall→ CPI energy pressure eases→ opening room for Fed rate cuts → risk assets to benefit. This is the best scenario.
But if negotiations break down or the agreement is discounted→ oil prices soar again→ CPI exceeds expectations→ the Fed is caught in a dilemma→ and tech stocks and BTC are under pressure. This is the most disgusting scenario.
The market is currently swinging between two scenarios, and any new piece of news could tip the scales.
My advice:
Don't rush to go long on risk assets just because you see the phrase "negotiation progress." Before the agreement is finalized, the geopolitical premium on oil prices will not completely disappear. Next week is the CPI; if energy stocks stick due to previous oil price increases, the Fed's hawkish tone will remain.
BTC is currently at 64,000 levels; it lacks catalysts upward, but supports downward but not strong. If the Hormuz issue can be smoothly resolved, it would be a hidden positive news; If further complications arise, it would only add insane damage.
In terms of operations, keep holding spot stocks, but don't add positions because of this news. Contract trading must be even more stable; fluctuations in geopolitical news are harder to grasp than false technical breakouts.
Once the agreement is truly signed, the ship is truly approved, and oil prices stabilize, then it's not too late to act. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is certainty.
Do you think Hormuz's negotiations will go smoothly? Let's discuss in the comments.
#霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the risk of oil prices cooled down? #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
7月美国非农新增就业-2.3万，大幅偏离市场8万的预期值，5、6月历史数据合计下修10.3万，劳动力市场降温信号明确，CME数据同步显示9月美联储加息概率从58%骤降至42%，宽松预期短暂带动币圈小幅回暖。看似就业走弱能打消加息念头，但失业率回落至4.1%只是大量人群退出劳动力市场的假象，叠加中东地缘推高油价、通胀粘性仍存，美联储早已表态抗通胀是首要目标，接下来即将落地的7月CPI数据，才是敲定9月货币政策的唯一核心依据。我日常深耕星球输出行情感悟，操作上保持谨慎不提前赌政策结果，静待宏观尘埃落定、市场行情逐步回暖。
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
仅代表个人观点，不构成投资建议。The July nonfarm payroll data is as chaotic as a quarrel.
Jobs decreased by 23,000, while the expected increase was 80,000, but two months ago it was revised down by 100,000—that's pretty bad, isn't it? As a result, the unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, because 260,000 people directly left the labor market and stopped searching.
In the same report, some looked at the unemployment rate and said "it's okay," while others looked at employment numbers and said "it's doomed." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 57% to 44%, and US Treasury yields plunged accordingly.
Nick Timiraos of the New Federal Reserve News Agency put it bluntly: this report basically says nothing. How will September go? Ignoring employment, looking at next week's CPI.
$BTC was the first to get excited, rebounding from the low to $65,300.
Personally, I feel that when employment weakens, rate hike expectations cool, short-term breathing is not a problem. But how long this breathing can last depends entirely on the quality of the CPI. Washi previously said—if employment is relaxed, it will be fine, but if inflation is tough, it will still rise. Don't rush to rush; wait for the CPI to hit the market. #非农意外转负, CPI is the key to raising interest rates Last week, he was still under pursuit, and this week he spent 500 million to join a secret company
Last week, Leopold Aschenbrenner was simultaneously notified by several major Wall Street brokers calling margins. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America—one after another. His roughly $16 billion long-short portfolio was forced to be sold to Citadel, at a discount of over 10%.
A 25-year-old only started the fund last September, managing about $20 billion. This year, a 439% return in the first half of this year, and a 67% loss in July alone.
Logically, the next steps should be apology letters, reckoning, and disappearing.
As a result, on Tuesday, he invested $400 million in a chip company called Source Foundry, and with the previous $100 million, the total reached $500 million.
The company won't be founded in San Francisco until 2025, founded by Stanford materials scientists Abdulmalik Obaid and Joe Burg, with Sequoia behind the scenes. What they want sounds pretty crazy: bypass ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography machines and build advanced chips with a simpler, cheaper, and faster process.
Here's the interesting part.
What knocked him down in July was exactly the same narrative. His heavy holdings in Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, and CoreWeave were all public market targets in the AI computing power chain, dropping over 30% in a month. With nearly fourfold leverage amplified, his account hit bottom. Coincidentally, big short Michael Burry just shorted Nebius at $211.77 a few days ago, which was one of his heavy holdings. Forced to close down, others opened on the opposite side.
Now they've changed their approach. The public market has daily quotes, and when the quote drops, brokers come knocking. Private equity is different—there's no daily market mark, no one calls you late at night asking for extra money. Even if it's a bet on AI computing power gaps, if you put it in a container with no visible price, you won't get pushed off the back.
This isn't admitting defeat; it's moving your position to a place where you won't be pursued for protection.
Going deeper, this money may not have been entirely deliberately chosen. The fund shrank to about 10 billion, of which 5 billion was originally Anthropic's private equity, which itself couldn't be moved. The rest was kept being stuffed into private equity. To put it nicely, it's long-termism; to put it bluntly, it's a smooth transition after liquidity is locked down.
By the way, after Citadel took over that batch of chips, the July stock fund rose 14.2%. Something sold at a 10% discount ends up in someone else's hands as a profit. The real cost of leverage is never judging the wrong direction, but depriving you of the right to wait.
We're actually familiar with this feeling here. The Bitcoin sideways stayed near 65,000, the upside implied volatility hit a historic low, and no one was betting at either end. A bunch of people held their positions and said they were waiting, but actually, there was nowhere else to go for now.
Someone who was forced to cut losses last week dares to invest 500 million in a company almost nobody has heard of. Do you think he truly believes in this path, or just found a corner where he doesn't have to check quotes every day?Michael Saylor said something I think is especially apt. He said Bitcoin doesn't need the CLARITY Act; it's the U.S. that needs it. Whether Bitcoin has such a law or not, it's just running around—mining when it's supposed to be mined, holding when it's supposed to be. But American institutions can't get in, banks don't dare touch it, and funds can only watch idly.
A vacuum will not stop industry development; it will only push opportunities elsewhere.
The FTX incident has already proven that the industry needs rules, but Washington has been arguing for three years and hasn't even clarified "who will set the rules." The House has been passing it for over a year, and the Senate Banking Committee has been passing it almost three months ago. A bill over 600 pages long, plus 300 pages of amendments, took eleven months of discussion, and then? The meeting was adjourned, and we'll talk about it in September.
But what if it still doesn't pass in September? After the midterm elections, the political landscape could completely change. Lummis also warned that if it drags on until after the election, legislation could stall for up to four years. Four years, three years is already a long time. #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window has shifted back $BTC Buying the right coin, holding it for a whole month, watching it stay flat — while $ADA surged nearly 20% in just one week. That’s the current market: $BTC hovering around $64k, more than 48% below its previous peak, but the money flow isn’t standing still — it’s moving very selectively. While small memes like $PONS, $WKC, $HEI are heating up, the privacy group $ZEC (+12%/week) and $XMR are quietly breaking out; conversely, $ONDO and the RWA group are down -10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, $PEPE are in a tug of war.
One perspective says this is smart money rotating — altcoins with their own stories are still winning big. But another view argues that the $ZEC, $ADA wave is just a short-term shift in a market lacking liquidity: until $BTC breaks its peak, altcoins won’t have a strong, sustainable rally.
In my opinion, what matters isn’t the price, but the money flowing into defensive groups — privacy and even gold tokens like $XAUT rising 7%/week. That’s a risk-off mentality, not an altseason. Altseason might not be gone, but fragmented into waves by sector — those who pick the right group win, those holding “good” coins waiting for a big surge might wait forever.
If you could only hold 1 coin until the end of the month, you
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs Geopolitical risks are gradually fading, and Ethereum is entering a breathing room
Tensions in the Middle East continue to ease, the risk of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, and the war premium is gradually being stripped away from oil prices.
Oil prices no longer keep surging, indirectly easing global inflationary pressures and providing real support for the Fed not to raise rates further, thus providing a bottom-up for risk assets.
Previously, when the market tightened, funds immediately fled highly elastic coins, and ETH was always the first to be dumped;
Now, the threat of external black swan events is diminishing, and combined with weakening nonfarm payrolls, the macro environment has shifted to a neutral to bullish bias.
On the market, it can be seen that when ETH falls, there is support, repeatedly clearing out short positions. In the same interest rate environment, compared to the previous 2400 level, the current price offers outstanding value for money.
The negative shackles on geopolitical factors have been removed, and once subsequent data aligns, Ethereum's elastic advantage will be unleashed.
Don't blindly chase highs; wait for pullbacks to support before considering positioning$OKB Ahhh! 😂🤡😂🤡 I never expected to make this profit, but the ICE and burn event is really top-notch
In the afternoon, I glanced at my OKB holdings, and the unrealized profit doubled, but unfortunately, I can only enjoy a little pork knuckle rice
I should be happy, but I know deep down this has nothing to do with my skills. It's purely riding on the news.
The ICE strategic investment in OKX was officially announced in June, with a valuation around $25 billion. The NYSE parent company and OKX formed a joint venture to bring tokenized stocks and futures on-chain, mainly targeting US users. When this news came out, OKB surged from around 80 to over 120, then later fell back to fluctuate around 90.
On August 15th, there will be a total supply burn event, with 279 million OKB sent to a black hole address, permanently reducing the total supply to 21 million. A significant supply cut, the market expects this to be a locked-in positive.
Looking at the market, the price has already risen quite a bit, so those who chased in have a high cost. The ICE event is indeed a big positive, but the market has already digested it for a while, and the price has factored in the expectations. When the burn actually happens, if it turns into a "good news fully priced in" sell-off, the small profit I have can't withstand a few points of pullback. Realizing profits is what matters.
#VolatilityRadar: Coin movement observation Nonfarm payrolls shocked negative growth, causing a short-term market frenzy, but don't let emotions sway you.
In July, nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, while the expected increase was 80,000, with the data for the previous two months sharply revised downward; The unemployment rate appears to be declining, essentially because many people are directly leaving the labor market, which is an early sign of weakening employment.
Once the data came out, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled rapidly, US Treasury yields fell, and BTC surged from around 64,000 to 65,300 before starting to pull back—a short-term sentiment pulse.
But the Fed's core bottom line is inflation; poor employment does not mean an immediate shift to easing. At the last meeting, three hawkish members already supported rate hikes.
The real decisive point is the July CPI on August 12.
If inflation remains sticky beyond expectations and the Fed still holds interest rate hike options, this wave of bulls can be quickly harvested; Only when inflation clearly declines can expectations for a pause in rate hikes in September materialize.
BTC needs to hold between 63,000–63,400 in the short term to have room for further competition. Only by holding above 64,500–66,000 with increased volume and CPI combined will new opportunities open up.
Nonfarm payrolls are just a temporary getaway; inflation is the core that holds the real power over market trends. #非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes 📊 SpaceX: Shares Unlocked, But the Stock Rallied 6%. What Happened?
The first batch of restricted SpaceX shares has entered the sellable window, with approximately 911.5 million shares potentially available.
The market expected the unlock to create selling pressure.
Instead, the stock jumped around 6%.
At first glance, that looks bullish.
But I wouldn't rush to conclude that the unlock risk has already been fully absorbed.
🧠 What Could Be Happening?
Before the unlock, bearish expectations were already extremely crowded.
High capital expenditure.
Large losses.
A huge number of shares becoming tradable.
That combination gave short sellers plenty of reasons to position for a decline.
But when the unlock actually arrived, the expected selling pressure didn't immediately appear.
Instead:
No immediate selling → price rises → shorts come under pressure → short covering → stop losses triggered → further upside.
That's a classic setup for a short squeeze.
🎯 The Real Test Comes Next
The important question isn't:
“Why did it rise 6%?”
It's:
“What happens when the short covering ends?”
If additional unlocked shares gradually enter the market and the stock starts weakening again, this rally could simply be providing liquidity for sellers.
But if the stock absorbs the selling pressure and continues holding higher levels, that's much more meaningful.
📌 My takeaway:
The 6% move proves that the bears were positioned aggressively.
It does not yet prove that the bulls have won.
The next phase of price action will tell us much more.
#SpaceX #Stocks #Trading #ShortSqueeze #MarketAnalysis #IPO #StockMarket #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound $BTC I believe BTC and ETH have already bottomed out, and from August onward, they are very likely to enter a volatile upward trend.
Those still waiting for the "last drop" will mostly have to watch the market slip away.
Here's my reasoning: from market sentiment, the most extreme fear phase in this year's bear market actually materialized as early as February, and that level of panic is often the sign of a stage bottom. Looking at the time cycle, past bear markets usually only last about a year; BTC has barely rebounded since October last year, falling in a dark state until now, and short-selling momentum should have mostly drained away long ago. ETH is even worse, having been heading south since August, falling for nearly half a year, accelerating to the bottom, and the space has actually been squeezed.
The consensus among retail investors is too strong—everyone says there will be an ultimate crash from October to November, thinking it's a paradise for bottom-fishing—but who in the market can predict the outcome so precisely? According to the 80/20 rule, the script most people are watching usually can't be played.
So I lean more toward the idea that February was already an initial bottom, and June and July even hit rock bottom. This is very similar to the structure of June 2022, where there was a crash, then sideways consolidation until November before finally bottoming out. By analogy, a new market could start at any moment.
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future?
$BTC $ETH $BICO $XTER "S&P surges with market cap increases by 2.1 trillion, but why $BTC $ETH crypto is stagnating"
What is the reason why US stocks are soaring wildly now, yet cryptocurrencies have yet to show any sign of activity?
I've been watching both sides of the market lately. This month, the S&P 500 added $2.1 trillion in market capitalization, major AI tech stocks hit new highs, but Bitcoin only rose slightly by 2%, and for a long time, it was stuck at $64,600, oscillating around Sina Finance.
In my view, the most crucial thing is that all the funds are being drained by the AI sector.
This round of US stock rally has been driven solely by computing power sectors like Nvidia and memory chips. Institutional funds believe AI has solid orders and revenue as support, making it highly certain.
A large amount of capital has been withdrawn from Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have seen net outflows for several consecutive weeks. The total supply of stablecoins used to enter the crypto space has been shrinking, and the market liquidity is severely lacking in Securities Star.
Second, US stocks rely on listed companies' earnings reports and business earnings as confidence, while Bitcoin has no profitable income; its market performance relies solely on liquidity and market sentiment.
As long as off-exchange funds are unwilling to enter, no matter how hot the US stock market is, dividends are hard to overflow into the crypto market.
Moreover, with the current regulatory uncertainty in the crypto industry and occasional platform security incidents, many large asset management institutions are choosing to remain cautious and hesitant to lightly increase their holdings in the crypto sector.
When will institutional funds be willing to divert from the AI track and turn their attention to the crypto sector?
Forward!但斌悄悄买入Circle：$CRCL，可能是他组合里最值得研究的一笔
但斌前两大重仓是谷歌和英伟达，这两笔很好理解。一个是AI时代的平台型基础设施，一个是AI算力的核心资产；台积电、美光同样属于AI上游。
但Circle完全不一样。
一家做USDC的稳定币公司，为什么会进入但斌的组合？
Circle并不一定应该被简单理解成一家“加密货币公司”。
更值得研究的，是它有没有机会成为一家金融基础设施公司。
如果未来全球跨境支付、数字资产结算、代币化证券以及链上金融持续发展，那么USDC真正的价值可能并不在于它是一种稳定币，而在于它成为资金在全球数字金融体系中流动的底层通道。
这意味着，投资Circle的逻辑并不是简单押注比特币或者加密货币价格上涨。
真正押注的是：
未来全球金融体系，会不会越来越多地通过链上美元进行结算。
这也是为什么Circle获得银行牌照值得关注。
如果Circle能够通过国家信托银行框架进一步进入传统金融体系，它与银行、资产管理机构、支付机构以及其他金融基础设施之间的连接能力都会发生变化。
换句话说，Circle正在尝试从“稳定币发行商”向更完整的金融基础设施平台靠近。
市场此前对Circle的叙事完全不同。
当股价跌到约63美元附近时，很多投资者看到的是竞争、监管和估值压力，甚至开始怀疑Circle的商业模式。
而如果但斌确实是在这一阶段附近开始建立仓位，那么真正值得研究的并不是“他买了多少”，而是：
他看到的东西，和当时市场看到的东西，到底有什么不同？
这和但斌过去一些看起来“不容易理解”的投资，其实存在一个共同点：
不是等所有人都看懂之后再买，而是在市场还无法形成共识的时候下注。
过去重仓茅台，可以理解为押注消费品牌和消费基础设施；重仓苹果，可以理解为押注移动互联网生态；重仓谷歌，则是押注互联网入口向AI基础设施进一步演化。
那么现在买Circle，如果这个逻辑成立，押注的就是：
USDC能不能从一种数字资产，逐渐变成全球金融体系的基础设施。
但这里必须保持清醒。
Circle和谷歌、英伟达、台积电并不是同一个风险等级。
后者已经拥有经过多年验证的商业模式、巨大收入规模和成熟的产业地位，而Circle所押注的，是一个仍然处于快速发展、监管持续变化、竞争格局尚未完全确定的新金融基础设施。
所以，Circle可能是一个巨大机会，也可能是一个非常昂贵的错误。
也正因为如此，这笔投资才值得研究。
如果三年后USDC成为全球数字金融的重要结算层，那么今天市场对Circle的理解可能仍然非常初级。
但如果稳定币最终无法形成足够大的网络效应，或者竞争对手、监管以及利润结构发生变化，那么今天看起来非常宏大的故事，也可能无法兑现。
所以，这笔投资最值得思考的并不是：
“但斌是不是又押中了一个大牛股？”
而是：
“他是不是在押注下一代金融基础设施？”
如果答案是后者，那么Circle可能确实是他整个组合里最有想象力的一笔。
三年后，市场才会给出答案。Circle under bearish pressure: box formation or continued bottoming?
Recently, CRCL (Circle) has been flooded with negative sentiments: Q2 revenue fell short of expectations, reserve yields have declined, analysts have lowered target prices, and institutions have issued cautious ratings...... The stock price has repeatedly fluctuated around $60, with market sentiment leaning pessimistic. From another perspective, these concentrated negative news releases may not be a true reflection of fundamentals, but could also be routine practices by institutions to leverage retail investor panic for chip swaps. Combining supply-demand and box movement, the current phase is more like a bottom-up accumulation phase.
1. The underlying logic behind negative public opinion and the financial report "falling short of expectations."
The market's bearish sentiment mainly focused on: revenue slightly below Wall Street expectations (about $701 million vs. expected about $717 million), USDC rebounding quarter-on-quarter from its Q1 high, reserve return down to around 3.5%, and some institutions maintaining low ratings and sharply lowering target prices. These figures did put pressure on short-term sentiment, and stock prices fell accordingly.
But two things need to be distinguished. First, the profit side actually delivered beyond expectations (EPS about $0.18), USDC circulating supply still grew about 19% year-on-year to $73.3 billion, on-chain trading volume grew significantly, the company raised its full-year revenue guidance, and advanced strategic progress such as OCC trust licensing and the Arc network mainnet. Short-term financial fluctuations do not mean long-term competitiveness collapsed. Second, negative factors concentrated around the earnings window, combined with stock price declines, more likely to trigger retail investors' stop-losses and panic selling. This is a common chip redistribution process in mature markets: using sentiment to create low price buying space. Acknowledging the objective existence of short-term sentiment and numerical pressure, equating these one-time or cyclical factors directly with "long-term bearishness" is insufficient. Core corporate value still depends on stablecoin adoption, reserve management, and new business expansion, which are not entirely negated by a single financial report.
2. Market Supply-Demand and Box Movement: Signs of Bottom-Down Accumulation
From the market perspective, selling pressure momentum has clearly weakened. When the stock price repeatedly dipped near $60, selling pressure failed to amplify sustainably; instead, there was clear buying support, with multiple "pin insertions" quickly pulling back and failing to effectively break below the level. This pattern of repeatedly testing bottoms but holding key positions usually corresponds to major players accumulating at low levels rather than selling in a trend.
In terms of movement, CRCL has recently shown a clear $60-70 box consolidation: each rebound to around $70 is followed by pressure and pullback, and further support near $60. $60 serves as strong short-term support, while $70 is a clear resistance. Box consolidation itself is a process of amplified chip exchange. If volume can be significantly amplified and effectively stabilized during subsequent $70 attempts, the original resistance level may turn into support, and the market may shift from volatility to upward movement. Current selling exhaustion + repeated confirmation of support better align with bottom accumulation rather than a one-sided breakdown down.
3. Technical simulation reminders under three scenarios
1. Volume increases and holds above $70: The original resistance level has turned into new support. A pullback near $70 may suggest opportunities for market entry, but volume and subsequent support must be confirmed.
2. Pullback below $60 without setting a new phase low: Below $60 may become a low-level buying zone to watch, still a positioning near the lower edge of the range.
3. Effectively breaking below previous lows and continuously hitting new lows: Do not rush to bottom-fish; stay on the sidelines and wait for a bottoming structure that no longer hits new lows before assessing after a bottoming structure emerges.
The above is only a technical trend logic simulation and does not constitute any investment advice.
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? #非农意外转负, CPI is key to rate hikes. No matter how bad the CPI data looks, it won't go up. The tech competition between China and the US has reached a critical stage. Unless the US has already gained the upper hand, Walsh will only manage expectations and show a tough stance, but won't actually take action.🚨 WHY THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ MATTERS FOR CRYPTO
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just an energy story anymore. It has become a macro signal that crypto traders should be watching closely.
Why? Because the chain reaction is simple:
🛢️ Hormuz tension → oil prices rise
📈 Higher oil → inflation pressure
🏦 Inflation pressure → fewer expectations for Fed easing
💵 Tighter liquidity → pressure on risk assets
₿ Crypto → volatility rises, especially across altcoins
That’s why every development around Hormuz can quickly affect market sentiment.
The bullish side is just as important.
If tensions ease, shipping risks decline and oil prices stabilize, markets could get relief from fears of another inflation shock. Lower energy costs can support softer inflation expectations, improving the liquidity backdrop for risk assets.
For crypto, that could mean stronger conditions for $BTC first, followed by selective rotation into $ETH, $SOL and high-conviction altcoins.
But there’s a catch. This market is already showing signs of selective liquidity rather than a broad-based altseason. Capital is concentrating in assets with stronger narratives, liquidity and catalysts.
So I’m watching three indicators together:
🛢️ Oil prices
🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury yields
₿ $BTC price action
If oil cools while yields decline and $BTC holds its structure, the setup becomes increasingly constructive.
If Hormuz tensions escalate and oil spikes, expect the opposite: risk-off positioning, higher volatility and weaker altcoin performance.
The next crypto move may not be decided by crypto alone.
Watch the oil. Watch yields. Then watch where the liquidity goes. 👀
⚠️Not financial advice. DYOR.
$SOL $ETH $BTC
#HormuzTalksAdvance
#HormuzDealStillPending
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus