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$OKB 在3月5日触及124美元后一路回落，最低跌至65.76美元。时隔五个月，它再次突破100美元关口，现报103.50美元，24小时涨幅8.53%。 从124到65，再到103——这条价格曲线，浓缩了OKB叙事从狂热到冷却再到重燃的全过程。 3月5日的124美元：ICE入股点燃的“消息牛” 3月5日，纽约证券交易所母公司洲际交易所（ICE）宣布以250亿美元估值入股OKX少数股权。消息一出，OKB从约77美元急速拉升，盘中触及124美元高位，24小时振幅超过50%。 那一天的逻辑很清晰： ICE是华尔街的象征，其入股被视为对OKX的顶级信用背书 OKB作为平台代币，直接受益于市场对OKX估值的重估 叠加此前2025年8月销毁后2100万枚的“通缩叙事”，情绪共振推至高潮 124到65：利好出尽，一地鸡毛 但ICE入股的催化剂是一次性消息，不是持续的基本面改善。 利好兑现后，获利盘蜂拥而出。OKB从124美元高位迅速回落，随后一路下行，最低触及65.76美元。 五个月，腰斩过半。 这段下跌的核心原因是：ICE入股改变了市场对OKX的估值，但没有改变OKB的供需结构。 2100万枚的[Blockchain Asset Morning Report | August 13]
BTC $64,050｜ETH $1,905
🔥 Today's Market
BTC has returned to around 64,000.
It just broke below yesterday and pulled back today, indicating that both bulls and bears are reluctant to let go at this level.
But there's a piece of data that's not very good:
On August 12, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $46.79 million, marking two consecutive days of capital outflows.
Before the 65,000 yuan stands and can't go back, I won't chase long.
ETH is actually a bit interesting, performing slightly better than BTC today.
If ETH/BTC continues to strengthen in the future, I would be more willing to watch ETH than I do now.
😈 A mountain stronghold
The top 50 market capitalization remains a local trend today.
The top gainers were PUMP, Canton, and CRV, but overall, the profitability was still average.
There was no widespread stampede during the decline.
⸻
📰 Today is worth paying attention to
(1) US July CPI release
US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations.
The market has not experienced significant volatility so far, and BTC remains near $64,000.
(2) The SEC will discuss its first major crypto rule tomorrow
The SEC has scheduled a public meeting on August 14, with topics related to new crypto regulatory rules that are worth watching.
U.S. crypto regulation has begun to enter a true "rule-setting" phase.
(3) Securitize's first financial report since going public
This BlackRock-affiliated RWA company posted second-quarter revenue of $14.4 million, down 5% year-over-year, with net losses widening to $21.7 million.
It seems the RWA story is big, but doing business isn't that easy.
(4) BTC ETFs saw net outflows for two consecutive days
There was just a round of strong capital inflows earlier, but now it's starting to diverge.
So don't just look at "net inflow" from the previous year,
Whether short-term funds continue to buy is the key to whether the price can continue to rise.
⸻
🧠 My opinion
Today, I remain cautious.
If BTC at 65,000 won't rise, I won't chase.
Instead, they focus on ETH.
Because if the next round really has a market move,
Leaning more towards the following:
BTC stabilizes first, ETH moves first, and knockoffs come out last.
Be patient DYOR🚨 Fed rate hike expectations have fully faded!!
In just one month, market expectations have completely reversed—from concerns over whether to continue rate hikes in September to betting on the next easing cycle.
Data forces a shift: July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, core CPI was 2.5%. Combined with weakening employment data, the probability of the Fed holding steady in September has risen to about 64%.
Core capital logic: The market does not trade "no rate cuts when prices fall," only preemptively "whether future liquidity is loose or not."
Liquidity conduction chain
Fed rate hike expectations are fading
👇
The US dollar is under pressure + US Treasury yields have retreated
👇
Risk appetite is rebounding (BTC, US growth stocks, and gold are seeing capital inflows)
The key logic behind BTC
BTC has never feared "high interest rates," but rather the expectation of "more expensive and longer-lasting" tightening. Now that shackles have been loosened, valuation pressure has been greatly eased.
The following three monitoring indicators
Dollar Index
U.S. Treasury yields
BTC capital flows
If all three shift simultaneously, it would not only mean a "pause in rate hikes in September," but also signal that large funds have started to race ahead of the next easing cycle.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? $BTC $ETH $SOL #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
After reading Musk's speech at the SpaceX all-hands meeting, to be honest, I was a bit shocked.
In most people's fixed impressions, SpaceX is just rockets, Starlink, Starship—a hardcore aerospace company. But Musk made a groundbreaking prediction: in five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's corporate value.
According to his plan, AI revenue by September this year will surpass all other businesses; The goal is to reach 10 gigawatts of computing power by the end of next year, with corresponding annual revenue projections set at $300-500 billion. He also proposed a "ground training and space inference" approach, packaging Starship capacity, Starlink network, and AI computing power into a complete infrastructure.
This is no longer just about spaceflight; it is linking space internet with large model computing power, opening up a whole new imaginative space.
But after calming down, I realized all of this is management's prediction—quite a pipe dream. Market focus is also shifting: moving away from rocket launch frequency and Starlink's cash flow, it's starting to question a reality—can AI business really support current valuations? Massive spending to expand computing power, huge capital expenditures, and various risks in implementation—has the current price already priced in all the positive factors in advance?
The capital market's reaction was also interesting: the related tokens rose in the short term, but the underlying stocks themselves experienced intense market fluctuations and maxed earnings expectations. However, the market repeatedly struggled, and after the rebound, momentum began to weaken.
The ideals are grand, but grand goals do not necessarily mean they are realized. The story is certainly sexy, but the risks cannot be ignored. While watching the drama, we must distinguish between vision and reality.Yesterday, $APR surged a lot. It doubled within a day, and now it looks like it might turn into a monster coin. For such monster coins, my usual strategy is to be bearish without shorting and to buy on dips. However, yesterday I went against my own strategy and shorted this coin, and now I'm stuck in a losing position. It's okay, I believe it will retrace back to my entry point, so I still have a chance to break even. If $APR doubles again at my entry point, I might get liquidated. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. We can see that its contract open interest sharply dropped this morning, while the long-short ratio increased. If we look at the candlestick at that time, we notice a wick spike. This indicates that many large short positions were liquidated at that level. After the wick spike, $APR's price continued to be pushed higher, liquidating some shorts. However, from the contract data trend, the number and quality of shorts liquidated now are far less than those during the wick spike. This suggests that short liquidation at this level now yields very little profit. Let's also look at the contract data over a longer period. We can see that the open interest has been gradually increasing, and the long-short ratio first fell then rose. This indicates that during the uptrend, not only were many shorts accumulated, but also a considerable number of longs. These longs will create some resistance to the price increase. I believe ifLet's start with the conclusion. If you still think of $BICO as an old project for "account abstraction and gas-free users," it's easy to miss the real changes that have happened over the past year. Biconomy is attempting to migrate from the Account Abstraction infrastructure to a higher-level Universal Execution Layer—the Universal On-Chain Execution Layer. Accounts, Gas, cross-chain, DEX routing, Intent, and AI Agent execution—these previously relatively fragmented modules are being repackaged into a unified execution infrastructure. If this is done, the valuation logic of $BICO will change. But I want to put another point first: Biconomy's biggest problem now is no longer whether the product has value, but how much of that value can actually be passed on to $BICO. This determines whether it is just a small-cap old coin easily driven by themes, or an asset with a chance to re-enter the infrastructure valuation system. Why has the market suddenly regained its $BICO recently? As of August 13, $BICO price was around $0.032, with intraday volatility still very volatile. In early August, $BICO even saw a rapid single-day surge of over 70% due to new perpetual contract market entries, but then clearly pulled back. This price action is important. What it tells us is not that "fundamentals suddenly improved by 70%", but ratherNebius surges today by +35% and has already gained +77% in just two weeks.
▌Three factors driving the rise:
➫ Leopold Aschenbrenner, who made $20 billion in one year, cut in at the lowest point—$NBIS was one of his largest holdings.
➫ Nebius just reported revenue of $582.3 million. Riding the explosive growth of its AI cloud business, its revenue surged by 514%, and—backed by an aggressive expansion fueled by more than $40 billion in outstanding orders—it has moved into the ranks of the world’s leading AI compute service providers.
➫ Michael Burry has just disclosed that he increased his short position in Nebius
$NBIS When the CPI data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September plunged from 55% straight to 40%, and US stock futures were in the red—I stared at the screen and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: the market's "big pig" has finally started to pedal, and what you need to do is be the little pig waiting to eat nearby. 📊 Let's start with CPI: Data is solid, rate hikes are uncertain. On August 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July CPI data: Overall CPI month-on-month was +0.1%, but in June it was -0.4% (the first monthly decline in six years); Year-on-year +3.4%, lower than June's 3.5% · Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.2% month-on-month and +2.5% year-on-year, matching the lowest growth rate since March 2021. All data fully matched economists' expectations. Once the data was released, CME FedWatch's probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 55% to 40.1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged soared to 59.9%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell in response. In short: Inflation is cooling down, and the Fed is very likely to remain unchanged in September. 🐷 Smart Pig Model: Why the Best Strategy for Retail Investors Is to "Wait" The smart pig game is one of the most classic cases in game theory: In a pigsty, there is a big pig and a small pig, each trough has a pedal, and a single step causes 10 portions of food to fall out. But pedaling costs the cost of two servings of food. If the big pig steps on it: the big pig eats 6 portions, the little pig eats 4 portions (big pig net profit 4, small pig net profit 4) · If the piglet steps on it: By the time the piglet runs back, the food has already been eaten by the big pig$BTC $ETH July's CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, fully in line with expectations. No surprises or shocks. Both the US S&P and Nasdaq gave positive feedback, but BTC didn't follow at all. It moved a bit lower. What does this mean? It shows that the old logic of macro data is weakening its driving force for Bitcoin. CME's interest rate tool shows the probability of holding rates steady in September jumped from 50.1% to 59.9%, while the probability of a rate hike dropped to 40.1%. Look, the market is clearly leaning dovish, but BTC just isn't buying it Funds are now more focused on the internal structure of crypto, not betting on macro directions. Looking at on-chain data, spot buying has clearly shrunk these days. The inflow rate of major wallets has slowed. Contract positions are still piling up, but the proportion of long positions keeps shrinking. To put it bluntly, there's no new story to tell on the macro level, so funds are returning to a state of stock competition. There's still PPI tonight, but the impact probably won't be significant. The core issue for BTC right now isn't inflation data, but how long has the 65,000 line been holding down? It can't push higher, and the lower limit won't break through Grinding People to the Point of Losing Temper, Macro Economy Returns to Neutrality, Bitcoin Must Find Its Own Direction #July CPI Steadily Landed, September Rate Hike Expectations Cool #财报观察员: AI Infrastructure Earnings Debut One After Another #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% DON'T MISTAKE A QUIET MARKET FOR A LACK OF OPPORTUNITY
Many investors believe crypto has lost momentum because prices remain in a tight range.
But beneath the surface, today's market tells a different story.
Institutional capital—not retail FOMO—is driving the narrative.
Over the past week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $853 million in net inflows. Yet $BTC has not broken out decisively because profit-taking and institutional distribution continue absorbing buying pressure.
At the same time, the latest U.S. CPI came in broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. That has eased pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
This is why I believe the current market is about portfolio positioning, not chasing the next 20% move.
If I were building a long-term portfolio today, my focus would be on:
$BTC — The primary destination for institutional capital and the foundation of any long-term portfolio.
$ETH — Positioned to benefit if ETF inflows remain strong and on-chain activity continues to recover.
$SOL — One of the most active Layer-1 ecosystems, with the potential to outperform if liquidity rotates into large-cap altcoins.
$LINK — A leading infrastructure project as tokenized real-world assets and blockchain adoption continue to expand.
$OKB — Worth monitoring as exchange ecosystems grow through new products, trading activity, and broader utility.
The most important indicators over the coming weeks won't be price alone.
Watch whether ETF inflows remain resilient, whether the Fed maintains a patient stance, and whether liquidity begins rotating from $BTC into high-quality altcoins.
Markets rarely reward those waiting for perfect certainty.
They reward those who prepare before the next major trend becomes obvious.
If you had $100 to invest every month starting today, which crypto asset would receive the largest allocation in your portfolio?
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
#IBITCutsBTCThreshold
$BTC
$ETH Everyone in the market has suffered from unrealized losses; short-term fluctuations wear down your mindset, but I am bullish on SpaceX in the long term.
Referring to the latest Q2 financial report: Starlink is now a stable cash business, with 12 million subscribers, and continuous growth in corporate and government orders, enabling sustained profit-making. In July, Starship's 13th test flight successfully launched the Starlink V3 satellite, moving from empty testing to payload validation, and the 14th test flight at the end of August involved tower recovery. Combined with the company's hundreds of billions in cash reserves and AI computing power expansion plans, the entire long-term roadmap is clear.
After the financial report was released, the stock price pulled back in the short term, essentially due to market concerns about high capital expenditures. But looking at the long term, Musk's "Starlink cash flow + Starship cost reduction + AI computing power expansion" layout is hard to replicate.
I am willing to endure short-term volatility, bet on this long-term track to gradually realize its value, and remain bullish on SpaceX for the long term $SPCX $SNDK #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 7月CPI公布以后，市场明显松了一口气。 同比3.4%，核心CPI同比2.5%，基本贴着市场预期落地。没有重新加速，也没有出现足以迫使美联储进一步收紧的意外。 于是最直接的一笔交易出现了：9月继续加息的概率下降，短端美债收益率回落，黄金先跌后涨，$BTC则继续在高位震荡。 很多人第一反应会是： 通胀降了，美联储不加息了，利好 $BTC。 这个逻辑没错，但只说了一半。 如果站在交易的角度看，这份CPI最大的意义，并不是告诉我们“牛市要来了”，而是暂时排除了一个最危险的左尾风险——美联储重新转鹰。 换句话说，市场现在得到的不是进攻信号，而是一张继续留在牌桌上的门票。 真正决定 $BTC 下一段趋势的，不是降息两个字，而是三个更重要的东西。 第一个信号，是长端利率能不能真正下来 这可能是目前最容易被忽略的一件事。 市场天天盯着美联储，但对 $BTC 这种久期很长、估值高度依赖流动性的资产来说，10年期美债收益率有时候比联邦基金利率更加重要。 CPI降温之后，2年期收益率容易跌，因为它交易的是美联储未来几次会议的政策路径。 但10年期不一样。 美国财政赤#EarningsObserver: AI Infrastructure Earnings Take the Stage Trend: The bull market foundation remains, but the era of one-sided sharp rises is over, entering a phase of high volatility with new index highs and severe internal divergence.
Positive factors: AI leaders show strong profit resilience, high corporate profits, expectations of a soft economic landing, and market speculation on Fed rate cuts.
Risks: Overall valuations are high, US Treasury yields remain elevated causing disturbances; if rate cuts are delayed, rapid pullbacks are likely; most small and mid-cap stocks underperform the index.
Strategy: Prioritize computing power, cloud leaders, and high-dividend defensive sectors; avoid pure thematic concept stocks, do not chase highs, build positions in batches, and ordinary investors should prioritize broad-based indices.
BTC Bitcoin
Market: Oscillating in the $64,000‑$65,000 range, recently clearly underperforming US stocks, which hit new highs while BTC did not follow.
Drivers: Highly tied to Fed liquidity; ETF funds and whale accumulation provide bottom support; this US stock rally is driven by AI corporate profits, with limited spillover effect on crypto assets. The biggest common variables: Fed rates and US Treasury yields, with rate cut expectations being the common positive factor and high rates the common suppressor.
Current characteristics: US stocks are driven by corporate profits; BTC relies more on liquidity and market sentiment, and this structural US stock rally has not fully transmitted to the crypto market.
Risk resonance: If US stocks experience a sharp pullback, BTC is very likely to face pressure simultaneously. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX 盘中暴涨超7%突破布林上轨，1小时图RSI冲高至80以上。价格强行撕开高位波动区间，把短线筹码直接推向超买边缘。向上能否站稳1140关口决定突破有效性，回踩若跌穿1120支撑则意味着多头动能出尽。一旦下破1090防线，高位价格结构将彻底失效，后续需观察均线承接力与供给扩产预期的博弈。
#Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%$HYPE HYPE Holds at $56, Fundamentals Turn Positive
Recent positive developments for Hyperliquid:
· Earnings: Hyperion DeFi Q2 net profit hit **$31M**, doubling QoQ. HYPE holdings grew from $71M to $133M.
· Institutional accumulation: Bitwise keeps buying HYPE, with ETF net inflows over $5M this week — no sell-offs.
· Regulatory upside: Lobbying CFTC to launch perpetual futures in the US, which could unlock a massive market.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
最近AI基建这一批财报扎堆出来，看下来心情挺复杂的。
好多公司营收数据看着真的很漂亮，Lumentum、CoreWeave还有超微电脑营收涨幅都冲到九成以上，Nebius更夸张，二季度营收直接同比暴涨454%，Coherent业绩指引也超预期，思科全年营收利润也都是双位数往上走。
看着数据一片红火，但市场好像已经不单纯为高增长买单了。
有个很现实的点现在摆在眼前：大家砸出去的资本开支实在太高，Nebius单单一个季度资本开支就干到57亿美元。哪怕业绩超预期，Coherent盘后照样跌了8%。
能赚营收是一回事，能不能把高额扩产，最后转化成实打实、可持续的利润，这才是现在市场最关心的事。
接下来就看应用材料的财报交卷，半导体设备的需求能不能稳住。
感觉AI基建板块的容错空间已经在收缩，不再是只要增长就能涨的阶段。后面估值怎么定价，利润会是最重要的考核标准。
你们怎么看这一波AI基建财报，还会继续看好这条线吗？ #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
Let's talk about Apple's testing of Changxin Memory chips. Many people only see the hype of "domestic products entering the Apple supply chain," but there are actually many practical obstacles.
Currently, it is only in the testing + preliminary negotiations, with official adoption still uncertain. The biggest external variable is the approval from the U.S. government.
Apple's original intention is very realistic: to break the supply structure of Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix and gain bargaining power.
But Changxin's stance exceeded many expectations, with rumors online that it does not accept Apple's price cuts and instead targets overseas giants.
The core reason is that domestic phone manufacturers have locked down a large amount of production capacity, with orders full and no need to sacrifice profits to gain entry tickets.
If future cooperation is implemented, DRAM supply and demand and storage manufacturers' market shares will change. But for now, everything is market expectations; stock price movements are mostly driven by sentiment. If any link in testing progress, procurement scale, or regulation goes wrong, expectations will be dashed.
Do you think Changxin will eventually enter Apple's supply chain?Breaking news!! The bottom of the bear market is slowly coming out!
So far this month, there have been 12 days: 11 days to take profit, 1 day to stop loss
I'm Cige, and to get straight to the point, the bottom of the BTC bear market is at $54,000.
Technical Side: Two independent patterns simultaneously point to 54,000
The 4-hour arc top and daily bearish flag breakdown, with both independently calculated downside targets pointing toward $54,000. When BTC fell below the $60,000 mark, both structures were triggered simultaneously, with evidence of bearish strength stacking up. After the 4-hour arc top breakdown, the vertical distance from the arc top to the neckline projected downward, with the target just below $54,000.
The monthly MACD has already touched the zero axis. Historically, the zero axis is near the low point of each bear market adjustment. This is not a random line; it reflects the cycle pattern of over a decade.
On-chain data: 54,000 is the convergence point of multiple cost lines
BTC's realized price is currently around the $53,000 to $54,000 range. The realized price represents the average cost of all Bitcoin's last move; when the price approaches this level, overall market profit pressure increases, and panic, accumulation, and bottom formation often occur simultaneously.
The 1.0x benchmark for the MVRV price band is around $54,000. Over the past decade, Bitcoin's bear market bottoms have been between 1.0 and 0.8x MVRV price bands. Bitcoin's miner production costs are roughly between $55,000 and $56,000. Technical support, realized price, MVRV compression, and miner costs—these four lines form a highly structured support zone near 54,000.
Institutional view: 54,000 is the lower boundary of the consensus range
Several institutions have identified $53,000 to $54,000 as a key bottom area. Galaxy Digital's realized price benchmark scenario is between $51,000 and $54,000. Fidelity expects $60,000 to $75,000 as a support range, while Bernstein forecasts a bottom around $60,000, with 54,000 being the lower boundary of this consensus range. Key support levels from institutions such as Citigroup, NYDIG, and CryptoQuant are also concentrated near $53,000 to $54,000.
Some analysts have given even lower forecasts, including Galaxy Research's $40,000 to $46,000 benchmark scenario and CryptoQuant's extreme MVRV level of $43,000. These scenarios often correspond to an MVRV falling to an extreme level of 0.8 times or prolonged recession pressure.
Even the most pessimistic institutions acknowledge that 54,000 is the most critical defensive position in the current cycle. From the current macro environment and ETF capital inflow structure, a deep break below 54,000 would require a systemic financial crisis to accompany it, which is not the benchmark scenario.
Macro Perspective: The rate hike cycle is at its end, and a bottoming logic is taking shape
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, clearly stated that if the Fed stops raising rates and the economy remains stable, the BTC bear market may be over. BTC's correlation with macroeconomic factors is strengthening, meaning that once macroeconomic headwinds reverse, BTC will reach a true bottom. The current Fed rate hike cycle is nearing its end, and market pricing for a September rate hike has dropped significantly. Once the cycle is confirmed to be over, BTC's bottom logic will be activated.
54,000 is not the end of the world, but an opportunity
BTC has pulled back about 50% from its all-time high, compared to previous bear market drops of 75% to 85%, and this round of correction is already quite shallow. Institutional demand, ETFs, and corporate treasury allocations are changing the depth of BTC's downside. The bottom may not be as sharp as before, but the structural support formed near 54,000 is more respectable than any candlestick.
If the price really reaches 54,000, then it's not the time to panic—it's the time to make a move.
That's all for Ci Ge. Take a closer look. #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool down #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession, $BTC $ETH $SNDK 今晚 CPI，BTC 真的会第一个动吗？别急。👀
很多人盯着 BTC 等数据一公布就冲进去，但真正的宏观资金传导，往往不是从 BTC 开始。
如果今晚 CPI 高于预期，第一反应通常来自 美元和美债收益率，随后是黄金，最后才轮到 BTC。
原因很简单：美元和美债是全球流动性最深的市场。CPI 一公布，市场会立刻重新定价美联储降息预期，2 年期美债收益率和 DXY 往往先出现剧烈波动。
黄金随后跟随，因为它既以美元计价，又没有利息收益。当美元和实际收益率快速上升，持有黄金的机会成本也会增加。
而 BTC 为什么可能慢半拍？
因为现在 BTC 的宏观定价，很大程度上仍然受到 美元流动性、纳指和整体风险偏好影响。传统市场先完成第一轮定价，风险情绪再通过资金和算法传导到加密市场。
所以今晚如果 CPI 真正“爆冷偏高”，我不会在 8:30 PM 的第一秒就追空 BTC。
先看 DXY，再看 2 年期美债收益率。
如果美元持续走强、美债收益率快速上冲，同时美股指数期货继续走弱，那么 BTC 的下跌压力可能才刚刚开始释放。
真正值得交易的，往往不是数据公布的那一秒，而是第一轮市场反应之后，趋势是否得到确认。
#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #CPI #BTC #Bitcoin #Macro
#DailyOrbit The Fear and Greed Index remains around 26, but $BTC and ETH have not simultaneously broken down, and this divergence carries more information than simple panic. Since August, the sentiment indicator has mostly been stuck between 26 and 32. Normally, such readings correspond to active position reductions, increased volatility, and a downward shift in price levels. However, over the past 30 days, BTC has still risen by 2.03%, and $ETH has increased by 6.91%. The price has not fallen along with the sentiment, indicating that the market is more likely in a phase of "low sentiment recovery" rather than the start of a new downtrend.
BTC has remained relatively stable within the fear zone, which means long-term capital has not been easily shaken out by the sentiment indicator. For institutions, what truly matters is not the fear index reading but liquidity expectations, the US dollar trend, and whether ETF funds are experiencing sustained deterioration. As long as these conditions do not tighten further, BTC consolidating amid low-level panic can be understood as a sign of selling pressure exhaustion. It may not rise immediately, but at least it shows that few are currently willing to exit at any cost.
ETH’s stronger gains reveal another layer of signal: the market has begun to test the return of risk appetite. ETH is more sensitive to liquidity and trading sentiment and usually outperforms BTC when capital is willing to increase risk exposure. Therefore, if the fear index later rises from the low 20s back above 35 into the neutral zone, ETH’s resilience will likely be stronger than BTC’s. Conversely, if the index falls below 20, extreme panic will again overwhelm the recovery logic, and BTC may still perform more bearishly resistant than ETH due to its lower volatility and stronger allocation attributes.
The core contradiction in the market right now is not whether sentiment is pessimistic enough, but whether pessimistic sentiment can still generate new selling pressure. Prices have already preemptively refused to follow the fear index downward, meaning the cost for bears to continue pressing is rising. But this is not yet a full reversal; before macro liquidity fully shifts to easing, capital is more likely to repair positions first rather than directly chase risk. What to watch next is whether ETH can continue to lead the rally as sentiment recovers and whether BTC can hold its ground during renewed panic. The former determines the rebound’s height, and the latter determines whether this round of recovery is truly effective.Payback Challenge | Day 29: Live Trading Review Record
Initial capital: 1500U
Current net asset value: 61U
1. Trade Review
Yesterday, $BTC BTC showed clear movement within the BTC range, with intraday highs and lows fluctuating between 63,280–64,450. Following a swing pattern of bullish low and high short, most traders can reap decent returns. Trapped traders can use small positions of 1%–3% to experiment, gradually diluting costs and gradually unwinding through repeated range fluctuations.
Key analysis of the logic behind the sustained rise of this round of SPCX: Recently, Elon Musk publicly stated that AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's overall value in the future. The market has completely reshaped the valuation logic for SPCX, no longer limited to rocket narratives, but instead speculated on the space AI computing power sector. Coupled with the technological benefits from the acquisition of Cursor AI, this has directly triggered market speculation, which is the core reason for the recent sustained rally.
The negative news of the first round of unlocking was fully realized, with no large-scale chip sell-offs. All negative news turned into positive ones, with a large number of short positions continuously squeezed out, forming a short squeeze and rising rally. Yesterday, the price surged to around 149 but still failed to break through the 150 resistance level, indicating heavy selling pressure at that level.
$SPCX SPCX is about to be unlocked in the second round, but there will still be selling pressure on raw chips, and short-term high-level speculation may be at risk of retreating. During the day, you can try short positions in the 147–149 range, strictly control the profit-loss ratio, firmly avoid heavy positions or heavy trades, and trade with the market rhythm.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $OKB broke through the $100 mark on August 13, 2026, with a current price of $101.8
Before this round of gains, OKB had formed a multi-week rising triangle pattern, with prices accelerating after breaking through the $90–$92 resistance area. Around August 8, OKB's single-day gain exceeded 5%. In the derivatives market, futures trading volume rose to about $34.9 million, with open interest around $25.1 million, with volume and price rising simultaneously, indicating new capital inflows
Possible driving factors
Exchange OS ecosystem outlook: OKX previously released an Exchange OS white paper, which brings trading capabilities such as matching and clearing down to the protocol layer, allowing developers to build decentralized exchanges or market prediction with one click. Since Exchange OS is based on the X Layer public chain, on-chain activities consume OKB as gas fees. With a fixed supply of 21 million tokens, rising demand directly drives prices.
Technical breakout: OKB was previously constrained by the $98–$103 supply zone, but after this breakout, this area has become a key observation level. If it can hold above $103, the upward trend is likely to continue; If it encounters resistance and pulls back, it may test the $90–92 support range.
OKB's breakthrough above $100 this time is largely the result of a technical breakthrough combined with ecosystem fundamental expectations. Going forward, attention will be paid to whether OKB can hold above the $98–$103 supply zone and the actual implementation progress of the Exchange OS ecosystem.Inflation has cooled, but why is Bitcoin still "locked up"?
On Wednesday night, when you saw the July CPI data, did you breathe a sigh of relief?
Compared to 3.4% year-on-year, core CPI fell to 2.5%, both in line with expectations. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from nearly a 50-50 split to 38.1%.
"Good news is here. BTC should be going up, right?"
Then you open the candlestick—Bitcoin briefly surges to $64,400, then plunges back to around 63,800.
What about gold? Spot gold rose over 1%, approaching $4,430.
At the same CPI, gold surged while Bitcoin stagnated.
You're stunned.
Many people don't understand: cooling inflation = lower probability of rate hikes = expectations of loose liquidity = positive for BTC.
Is this logical chain wrong?
That's right. But only half of it was right.
July's CPI is indeed cooling — overall inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and core inflation dropped from 2.6% to 2.5%.
But breaking it down, things are not that simple:
Housing costs contributed two-thirds of the month's CPI increase. Rents and owner-level rents are still rising.
Energy prices remain as high as 14.7% year-on-year. The impact of oil prices breaking 100 will only be truly included in the CPI in August.
Inflation has "cooled down," but it has not "disappeared."
More importantly—the market had already finished the "cooling inflation" script ahead of schedule.
Before the CPI release, BTC had been trading sideways around $64,000 for nearly two weeks.
"Good news has already priced in"—this is the truest portrayal of the post-CPI market.
A data that meets expectations won't make the market surge again. Only things that exceed expectations can ignite a rally.
BTC now faces two structural issues that are even more troublesome than CPI.
04.
The first issue: long-term interest rates cannot be lowered.
Short-term US Treasury yields are indeed falling—the probability of rate hikes has decreased.
But what about the 10-year Treasury yield? On Wednesday, the Treasury Department completed a $42 billion auction of 10-year Treasury bonds, with a winning yield of 4.683%, the highest since 2007.
Why? With fiscal deficits at the top, term premiums push long-term rates upward.
The deficit for fiscal year 2026 is expected to approach $1.9 trillion. The Treasury is issuing bonds frantically, and investors are only willing to take on the bonds when they demand higher returns.
What does this mean?
Even if there is no rate hike in September, long-term funding costs will not decrease. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains steady above 4.6%, which is like a knife hanging over Bitcoin with zero interest.
The short end is loose, but the long end is still tied. BTC is like its handcuffs have been loosened, but the shackles remain—it can't move.
The second issue: BTC and gold have completely separated.
Gold rose 9% this year, while BTC fell 11%.
Gold broke through $4,400, while BTC fell below $64,000.
Peter Schiff bluntly said: Bitcoin is now "anti-gold."
Although this statement sounds a bit harsh from a dead gold bull, the data speaks for itself—gold rises, BTC falls; gold pulls back, BTC rebounds; gold keeps surging, BTC keeps falling.
The narrative of "digital gold" has completely collapsed in this round of geopolitical conflict.
Why?
Gold is a purely defensive safe-haven asset—when war breaks out, sovereign funds and central banks rush in.
BTC is now classified by the market as a highly resilient risk asset—tied to the US tech sector. When geopolitical conflicts arise, institutions' first reaction is to buy gold and sell BTC to recover liquidity.
You want BTC to be a safe-haven asset? Sorry, the market doesn't accept it.
Sygnum Bank's Chief Investment Officer said something that hit the nail on the head:
With cooling inflation and weakening employment, the Fed's reasons for not raising rates are becoming more plausible—but the market is now concerned not about "when rate hikes will stop," but "when rate cuts will begin."
Stopping rate hikes is a suspended sentence. Starting to cut rates is a release.
What BTC is now receiving is just a probation notice.
As long as the Fed remains on a "higher for longer" track, as long as the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 4.6%, and institutions continue to view BTC as a risk asset rather than a safe-haven asset—
BTC is still in jail.
So when will it come out?
Two signals, both indispensable:
First, interest rate cuts are truly implemented. It's not about "not raising rates," but about "starting to cut rates." Only when liquidity valves are turned open will funds flow from gold and US Treasuries to risk assets.
Second, BTC is redefining its asset attributes. Will it rely on ETF inflows to turn itself into a "quasi-institutional asset," or will it tell a new story based on the scarcity after the halving? This path has yet to be taken.
Before that—
Don't treat "cooling inflation" as the trigger for a bull market.
It just tells you: the death penalty has been postponed. It's not a release from innocence.
After the CPI, BTC is still grinding between 63,000 and 64,000. When do you think it will truly break through?
$BTC $ETH $XAU #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled Fundamental Research Report $AAVE / Aave (DeFi) $3.20
To get straight to the point: Aave ($AAVE) has a comprehensive score of 49/100, rated as an early-stage project, with insufficient validation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at projects first: Aave (token $AAVE), DeFi sector. Focusing on lending leaders, V4 version. Benchmarking against COMP and MKR. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commissions, with user data not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with USDC or fiat settlement required. Narrative-driven track, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product launch: protocol layer officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
On the user side, address MAU is not disclosed, DAU is not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active individuals; concentrated holdings of large addresses overestimate actual user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy and burn annualized without a burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, protocol profits do not equal token holders profit. Code side: 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look at PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, refer to whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level but do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs; for technical integration, see API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. Using NVIDIA GPUs does not mean NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not mean strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), annualized buyback burn no clear buyback or burn. Must you buy coins to use the product? Some need it, medium value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Looking at it with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): Circulating market capitalization: Aave $3.00B, COMP undisclosed, MKR undisclosed. FDV: Aave $4.20B, COMP undisclosed, MKR undisclosed. Annualized revenue: Aave $2.00M, COMP not disclosed, MKR not disclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Aave not disclosed, COMP not disclosed, MKR not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% of the original price, with neutral range fluctuations; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns land, enterprise clients enter, FDV corresponds to P/S, aligned with the top companies. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: short-term large unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Key points to look at next: protocol fee weekliness, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on publicly available data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for the fundamentals; leave the rest to the market.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool down; #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession. #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebounded over 22% in ten days.
Morning analysis: The night after CPI, $BTC and $ETH didn't collapse, but they also couldn't rise
After last night's CPI "buy expectations, sell facts" crash, BTC and ETH quieted down late at night.
BTC hit a low of 63,288 in the early morning, just 125 points away from the low of 63,163 three days ago, but it hasn't been broken. Then slowly climb back to 63,482. ETH hit a low of 1872 in the early morning, still $20 safe from the previous day's 1852, and has now returned to 1879. Both players have been narrowly consolidating above their respective lows, without further breakouts or decent rebounds.
This is the market state after CPI—neither panic nor excitement. The data fully met expectations, giving neither the bears a reason to increase their holdings nor the excuse for the bulls to turn things around. The three-day losing streak temporarily halted at the 63,163 level, but the bulls still couldn't muster the strength to push upward. The direction was stuck in midair.
Tonight at 8:30 PM is the PPI. This is a supplementary verification from CPI—if PPI also cools down, the chain of inflation cooling will be complete, and the market will further suppress rate hike expectations. BTC's 63,163 is very likely to hold. If the PPI rebounds, it means cost pressure is still being transmitted to the consumer side, and 63163 will face pressure again.
Key Levels: Below BTC, 63,163 is the life-or-death line for this round; if it breaks, target 62,800. The above 64,000 level was the level lost last night; only by holding back would it stabilize. Below ETH, 1872 is the early morning low, and 1852 is a hard bottom. Above 1900 is resistance.
Before tonight's PPI, it's highly likely to be a slowdown. Whether 63163 can hold its ground depends on tonight.#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
昨夜美股三大指数涨跌互现，表面波澜不惊，实则暗流涌动：
· 标普500 微涨0.26%，收于7748.5点，距离历史巅峰仅一步之遥——这是一场"只差最后一口气"的逼空大戏
· 纳指 涨0.54%，报26588.48点，科技股在沉默中酝酿反击
· 道指 微跌0.04%，报53770.27点，连续第三日收跌——传统蓝筹的"三连阴"与纳指的倔强形成诡异反差，市场正在剧烈调仓
真正的炸点是CPI。
7月整体CPI同比涨3.4%，核心CPI涨2.5%，双双命中预期，较6月小幅回落。这不是什么惊天动地的降幅，但在这个"万物皆可恐慌"的节骨眼上，市场选择将其解读为——通胀的最后一口气快吐完了。
于是FedWatch上演惊天逆转：9月维持利率不变的概率从一周前的45%猛蹿至60%。市场直接对美联储喊话："你别动，我来涨。"
最疯狂的是VIX——华尔街恐慌指数暴跌至14.45，创下今年1月以来最低。还记得去年8月VIX飙上50时那场"黑色星期一"吗？如今恐慌盘消失得无影无踪，市场情绪从"草木皆兵"直接切换至"歌舞升平"。
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二、方向判断：短期偏多，但暗藏三重隐忧
基于以上信号，短期方向已经很清晰了——
结论：震荡偏多，大盘有继续上攻的动能，但绝非"闭眼买入"的牛市重启。
短期看多的理由（3个）：
1. CPI确认降温趋势——哪怕只是温和回落，也足够让加息预期退烧。美联储"不动"就是最大的利好。
2. VIX趴在地板上——14.45的恐慌指数说明市场毫无防备，一旦有利好催化，空头回补会点燃逼空行情。
3. AI主线重新站出来了——Nebius暴涨34%、CoreWeave涨19%、超微电脑涨19%，最能带动人气的板块活过来了。
但必须警惕的三把悬顶之剑：
1. CPI降幅不够猛——3.4%离美联储2%的目标还有距离。市场现在"往好里解读"，但下个月数据万一反复，今天笑得最欢的人明天砸得最狠。
2. 估值不便宜——标普500逼近历史高位，但企业盈利增速还没跟上。这轮上涨是"情绪驱动"而非"业绩驱动"，根基不牢。
3. 流动性拐点未至——利率还挂在5.5%的高位，借钱成本没降，靠什么支撑估值继续扩张？
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三、终极结论
美股短期方向：震荡偏多
但这不是趋势性牛市的起点，而是"预期改善"带来的阶段性反弹。
往上看，空间有限；往下看，CPI反复或美联储放鹰都能瞬间打回原形。
操作上：可参与，不追高，留后手。 涨了别贪，跌了别慌——现在这个位置，拼的不是谁赚得多，是谁跑得及。CPI data cooled as expected, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping from 50% to 40%. According to textbook scripts, this should be a carnival for risk assets. But Bitcoin only surged to $64,400 before turning back to around $63,500. Good news arrived, but prices didn't hold steady. This is not bad news but a more insightful signal: the market had already traded this part of the expectation in advance, and the real incremental funds are still waiting for the next confirmation. The data itself is fine; the problem is the timing lag. In July, core CPI year-on-year fell to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021. Inflation is declining, and expectations of rate cuts are rising—logically, this is good news for risk assets. However, the crypto market's reaction was a "brief rally followed by a pullback," and US stock futures were equally lackluster. This is not contradictory. Because before the CPI release, the market had been trading the narrative of "inflation falling down" for several weeks. Bitcoin rose from $58,000 to around $64,000, with most of the gains coming from anticipated early digestion. By the time the data arrived, the trading space for the expected gap had narrowed. The positive news is real, but it has already been priced in by the market. The key next is: can data drive real capital into the market? The rebound in recent weeks has been driven more by "short covering" and "rebalancing of existing funds" rather than large-scale inflows of new funds. Although ETF inflows continue, they are mostly institutional allocations according to plan rather than timed buying based on single CPI data. The real test is: whether the decline in inflation can be sustained,别急着抄底。 目前市场虽然冷清，但链上数据显示尚未达到历史级别的“绝望底”。ETH 距离真正的“黄金坑”可能还有一段距离。建议暂时放弃对“垃圾币”的挣扎，转为现金为王，等待明确的底部信号。
为什么市场“死”了？（横盘的根源）
你感受到的“没劲”并非错觉，市场正处于流动性枯竭的状态：
- 宏观抽水：美联储降息预期推迟，高利率环境让资金更愿意持有美债（4.9%+收益）而非无利息的加密货币，美元走强进一步压制了BTC/ETH的吸引力。
- 杠杆死绝：前期杠杆资金被反复清算，永续合约资金费率为负，说明市场上连“赌徒”都躺平了，缺乏增量资金。
- 安全恐慌：近期DeFi协议（如Balance）被盗事件频发，资金为避险纷纷撤离，导致链上活性降低。
现在是“大调整”的底部吗？（数据自查）
你想抄底，但真正的底部通常需要满足以下条件，目前尚未完全达成：
- 估值未破位：MVRV Z-Score指标显示市场虽便宜但未到“绝望”。历史大底通常需要该指标进入负值区间（目前尚未触及）。
- 矿工未投降：Puell Multiple指标显示矿工抛压压力虽大，但未出现大规模“断臂求生”的抛售潮。
- 情绪未冰封：虽然恐惧，但社交媒体尚未充斥着“归零”和彻底绝望的言论，说明还有人在观望，抛压未出清。
现在该怎么办？（策略建议）
- 停止“垃圾币”试错：数据显示95%的代币跑输BTC，73%的项目回撤超90%。继续在其中交易属于“接飞刀”，只会消耗本金。建议清仓小币种，持有稳定币或现金。
- 等待“三缺一”的底部信号：
- 情绪：恐惧贪婪指数长期处于“极度恐惧”（<20）。
- 筹码：交易所BTC/ETH余额持续下降（想卖的人卖完了）。
- 资金：ETF重新出现持续净流入。
- 若忍不住想操作：
- 高抛低吸：在箱体上沿做空，下沿做多，严格设置止损。
- 突破跟随：不猜方向，等价格放量突破箱体后再追单，避免被来回打脸。
$ETH 市场目前处于“磨底”阶段，可能还需要2-3个月的时间来完成筹码交换。在明确的底部信号出现前，“不亏”就是赢，保存实力比盲目抄底更重要。思科（CSCO）2027财年的业绩指引虽然超越了市场预期，但由于对AI收入的展望偏向保守，市场并不买账。财报一出，利好兑现变利空，盘后股价直接跳水4%，跌到了118.8美元。
这次调整的主要原因，是大户资金此前借着AI订单超预期的利好提前建仓，等财报真正落地后，资金缺乏新动力，开始在场内转圈。加上市场对AI收入能否按时兑现心存顾虑，短线情绪被偏保守的展望瞬间点燃，引发抛售。
现在短线情绪还没稳定，适合波段快进快出，千万别长线死扛。如果股价能反弹到120美元以上，建议赶紧落袋为安；要是跌破了117美元，就得果断止损离场！$CSCO #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 45% rate hike capped in the sky! $BTC. $ETH collectively declined, funds frantically fleeing ETFs
2026.8.13 Market Data Direct: $BTC current price is 63,452, down 0.18% in 24 hours, $ETH quoted at 1,878.99, down 0.14%. Spot $ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $1.76 million in a single day, with strong short-term institutional cash-out and exit sentiment.
The current core market shackle is a 45% probability of a rate hike in September, and the CPI data of 3.4% meets expectations, only eliminating extreme negative factors; the accommodative market has not materialized. Both major leaders have single-day turnover exceeding 4 billion RMB, with volumes not shrinking. The bearish decline indicates continued absorption of selling pressure, with 64,500 becoming a short-term strong pressure for $BTC, and the 1900 level serving as the dividing line between bulls and bears for ETH.
The divergence of funds from safe-haven markets is extremely evident: the native crypto market lacks upward catalysts, and funds are flowing into two major safe havens. Gold $XAUUSDT rose 0.94%, relying on its anti-inflation attributes to attract cautious funds; US storage mapping token $SNDK surged 6.65%, with a turnover of 1.559 billion, and the AI storage cycle recovery logic continues to attract hidden capital.
Practical advice: No one-sided short-term market trends, avoid blindly bottom-fishing mainstream, strictly control positions, and wait for the next round of macro data catalysts.
⚠️ Market review is only and does not constitute investment advice$XSPCX: Narrative is fading, and story bubbles are being priced in by the market
$XSPCX
You can think of this ticket as a dog raised by Musk priced at 100,000.
When the market believed in Musk and SpaceX's grand vision, buyers kept coming, prices pushed to over 100,000 yuan, and even with high valuations, people were willing to pay for the story.
But the reality is, SpaceX's speed of light was included in the Nasdaq, and despite overwhelming online promotion, the stock price kept weakening and plunging.
This already speaks volumes: the current market is no longer willing to continue paying for Musk's grand narrative.
Many people think that since the price dropped from 100,000 to 50,000, it's already a significant drop and they can buy the bottom to grab a bargain.
But one reality must be recognized: once it sheds Musk's emotional halo and strips away all the forward story premiums, this dog's true value may only be worth 10,000. #7月CPI平稳落地, September rate hike expectations cool #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Simplified US Stock Market #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 Outlook (2026.8, analysis only, not investment advice)
Overall Trend
The foundation of the US stock bull market remains intact, supported by AI capital investment + high profitability of US companies + economic soft landing; no systemic bear market in the short term. However, after a long period of rise, valuations are high and market expectations are full, ending the era of one-sided big gains, with high volatility becoming the norm.
Key Positives
Leading tech giants are gradually monetizing AI businesses with stable profit margins; slowing employment and consumption may pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates, with liquidity expectations providing long-term support for the market; the second half of the year’s market will spread from a small range of leaders to industrials, healthcare, and small to mid caps.
Main Risks
High and volatile US Treasury yields suppress growth stock valuations; if rate cuts lag market expectations, rapid pullbacks are likely; strong market divergence with indices rising but most small caps lagging, theme stocks lack earnings support and carry bubble risk; geopolitical and trade policies can cause short-term shocks at any time.
Sector Preferences
Priority: computing power chips, cloud service leaders, high-dividend defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities, consumer staples);
Avoid: pure AI-themed unprofitable small caps, high-debt and interest rate sensitive stocks.
Practical Approach
Avoid chasing high prices, adopt phased entry; lower return expectations, US stocks will mainly rise with volatility going forward; ordinary investors should prioritize broad-based indices to reduce individual stock speculation and pay attention to additional volatility risks brought by the US dollar exchange rate. $BTC US CPI landed pretty much where the market expected, and sometimes that can be just as interesting as a surprise.
My first thought is that an in-line number removes one major uncertainty, but it doesn’t necessarily give the market a clear direction. Inflation isn’t suddenly gone, and at the same time, there wasn’t a major upside surprise that forces everyone to rethink the outlook.
For me, the interesting part now is what happens after the initial reaction. Does the market stay comfortable with current rate cut expectations, or will upcoming jobs and growth data change the story again?
I also wouldn’t read too much into the first BTC move after CPI. Macro days can get noisy very quickly, and sometimes the more meaningful move comes later once yields and the dollar settle down.
#USCPIMatchesExpectations $BTC OKB/USDT Quick Take
Current Price: $OKB 101.79 is up +3.08% today, showing strong momentum and pushing well above its moving averages.
Support to Watch: $99.00 is the key floor to hold if it pulls back.
Target to Watch: A push back up to test the $OKB 102.43 resistance level is likely if buying pressure continues.#CPIEasesHikeBets #OKX.ai CPI平稳落地了。
7月CPI同比3.4%，核心2.5%，跟预期的一模一样。数据出来之后，市场直接松了一口气，9月维持利率不变的概率非常大。其他的也都没什么变化，大饼，黄金都在震荡。
这次CPI最大的价值就一件事——没出幺蛾子。非农已经冷了，CPI又没搞偷袭，加息预期基本被浇灭了。通胀还是比2%高，但已经撑不起继续加息的理由了。
不过有一点还得留意，住房成本还是硬，占了通胀涨幅的三分之二。长期压力没完全解除，这也是为什么长端利率没跟着短端一起下来。市场确认了“不加息”，但还没走到“降息”那一步。
对币圈来说，这个数据最大的意义就是预期稳了。之前最怕的是CPI超预期反弹，把加息预期又拉回来，现在这风险排除了。但别指望这个数据直接引爆行情，它更多是拆掉了一颗雷，不是扔了一颗炸弹。
你们咋看呢？
$BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 周四币市汇总一览：大盘还会再下，但现在先别动！
早啊集美们，昨晚$BTC 已经把方向走得很明显了。
依旧过不去64500，随后放量大阴直接砸穿63800，最低打到63210。
这个位置一破，多军也就顶不住了，但现在跌得不算顺。
目前在6350上下震荡，63800从之前的支撑，变成现在的压力。
所以：空，咱继续看，但现在别追。
等反抽到63800附近，再次承压，下方看62650。
已经有空单的，耐心等；
我观点不变：63800不收就看空，62650失守，下方就还有空间。
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 This chart shows the net realized profit and loss of long-term Bitcoin holders.
Here, long-term holders refer to at least
Investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days.
Therefore, on average, it excludes those who are being treated
The market is led by the nose with minor fluctuations,
Investors eaten by whales.
Historically, they rarely sell at the sight of a loss.
But when the bear market truly began, even they
It can also fall below the zero line, causing losses and selling assets.
And so, it stayed steadily below negative levels, and finally
Most long-term investors also give up and sell tiredly
And when it leaves the market, extreme negative spikes occur.
Currently, in the 2026 bear market, we have not seen anything like that
The last major drop.
Just for this alone, I anticipate unexpected moments for the public
Bitcoin will plunge again. If you hold altcoins, you might still be wondering: Is altcoin season finally back?
Some people are even wondering if this is already happening......
What they saw was: the ETH/BTC ratio started rising around early July and has now reached a three-month high (ETH/BTC: 0.2961). For many, this is exactly the start of every altcoin season: Ethereum first rises, then capital spins down the risk curve to smaller coins.
Overlooked hook: spinning needs something to spin. As long as Bitcoin itself hasn't truly risen, the most beautiful ETH/BTC chart is just sideways capital flowing and redistributing.
The latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin's dominance excluding stablecoins is still rising. If you exclude stablecoins, you're measuring Bitcoin against real altcoins. Bitcoin is still winning this battle, which means capital continues to concentrate in the safest assets. It hasn't flowed widely down the risk curve, which is the hallmark of a true altcoin season. So, what you see is just a paper signal without context. My assessment: altcoin season doesn't happen spontaneously. The signal exists, but the environment hasn't. First it's Bitcoin, then rotation, and vice versa. This time, the more honest indicator isn't the ETH/BTC chart, but where the money is actually flowing.
Before you bet on an altcoin again, observe three things: Bitcoin is rising. Dominance is shifting. Stablecoin inflows are growing. US CPI in July has just come out +3.4% YoY, Core CPI +2.5% YoY. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.1% and the Core CPI increased by 0.2%. Inflation is cooling down compared to the previous month, but the data has not yet created a "shock" big enough for the market to immediately move into a full risk-on state. (Bureau of Labor Statistics) And the market's reaction after the CPI is giving us a pretty interesting signal: Money doesn't flow into all risky assets. Money is selective. 🐸 MEME COIN – SPECULATIVE CASH FLOWS HAVE NOT REALLY RETURNED TO $DOGE AROUNDCPI reduces the risk of rate hikes, but only the PPI can tell us whether inflation has truly gone away or is just taking a breather
The CPI data is out—year-on-year 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, both in line with expectations.
The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 48% to 38%, while the probability of holding it unchanged surged to 62%.
Good news, right?
Then Bitcoin surged to 64,400, then quickly plunged to 63,500.
You read that right. Good news came out, but prices fell.
Why?
Because the market never pays for "meeting expectations"; it only celebrates for "exceeding expectations."
A 3.4% CPI is exactly as everyone guessed. No surprises, no shocks, nothing at all.
Housing costs have still risen, contributing two-thirds of the monthly increase. Core inflation is 2.5%, still half a point away from the Fed's 2% target.
The real meaning of this set of data is—
The risk of rate hikes has decreased, but the likelihood of rate cuts? Has not increased at all.
Sygnum Bank's Chief Information Officer put it bluntly: "The economy is gradually cooling down, with neither recession fears nor a renewed hawkish pricing." ”
Translated into plain language: inflation hasn't died yet, it's just taking a breather.
What really made me nervous was the following sentence.
Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, said something last night that I recommend you read three times:
"CPI data in line with expectations...... It doesn't solve much of the problem. A more interesting detail is that the Bitcoin options market still charges a hefty premium on protective options. For options expiring at the end of August, the downside strike cost of nearly $60,000 is higher than the equivalent upside strike price of nearly $70,000. ”
Do you understand?
The market is willing to spend more money on insurance for "Bitcoin dropping to 60,000" rather than buying lottery tickets for "Bitcoin rising to 70,000."
This is not a bullish signal; it is pricing in fear.
Grachev also said the second half—
"Tomorrow's PPI will be the next point to test whether this premium is beginning to ease."
Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US July PPI will be released.
Previous: PPI monthly rate -0.3%, annual rate 5.5%. Market expectation monthly rate to turn positive at 0.2%.
Two possibilities:
PPI came in below expectations → Production-side inflation has cooled across the board, and the probability of a pause in rate hikes in September continues to rise, with Bitcoin potentially breaking through the 64,400 resistance level.
PPI exceeded expectations→ Factory prices are still rising, costs are trending downward, rate hike expectations are making a comeback, and Bitcoin faces a test at the 63,000 support level.
CPI is how much consumers have already paid. PPI is how much more producers want to pay.
The former tells you about the past, the latter tells you the future.
Here's another unsettling signal.
Analyst Rekt Capital posted a chart on X: Bitcoin's rebound from the $63,000 area has grown from 6.27%, → 5.83%, → 3.18%→ now down to just 1.15%.
Each rebound is weaker than the last.
Bitfinex's research department also said: Bitcoin has been rejected six times in the 65,000-65,500 range.
Six times.
The same ceiling, hit six times and still couldn't get through.
This is not a good sign.
06.
So tonight's strategy is simple—
Don't bet heavily on the direction after the CPI is implemented.
The market is currently in a "wait for the next data" vacuum. The options market is still pricing in high premiums for downside risk at the end of August.
What does this mean? It means the big money hasn't placed its bet yet.
They are waiting for PPI. Waiting for 8:30 tonight.
CPI reduces the risk of rate hikes, but only the PPI can tell us whether inflation has truly gone away or is just taking a breather.
Tonight at 8:30, will you be watching the PPI data?
$BTC $ETH $XAU #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
$SPCX Musk dropped a bold statement at the all-hands meeting: AI revenue is expected to surpass the company's other businesses combined by September, and in five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value. He did the math — by the end of next year, building 10 gigawatts of computing power, at $30-50 per watt, corresponds to annual revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion.
SpaceX's AI business revenue in Q2 has already grown 213% quarter-over-quarter and 247% year-over-year, reaching $2.6 billion. Of the $7.8 billion total revenue in Q2, AI already accounts for nearly one-third.
The last successful short squeeze happened because the short positions were too crowded — 34% of the float was shorted. Now the short positions have dropped to only 11%, so even if the stock price continues to rise, the number of shorts forced to cover has significantly decreased. The intensity of the previous "short squeeze stampede" is hard to replicate.
A bigger issue is the continuous release of shares. On August 20, 319 million shares (about 7%) will be unlocked, about 700 million shares in September, and nearly 700 million shares in October. By the end of the year, the float will surge from 639 million shares to 5.33 billion shares.
Last week's unlock didn't crash the market because the short positions were too crowded. This week, the shorts have mostly exited; can we really expect the same script to play out again? The real factor determining the trend after August 20 is not the shorts, but the insiders and early investors who can finally sell their shares. 加密寒冬继续：BitGo营收暴涨80%，却陷入"越忙越难赚钱"。
BitGo最新财报二季度营收达到43.3亿美元，同比大涨近80%，但公司最终净亏损1900万美元。
去年同期，BitGo还赚了3830万美元。
与此同时，CFO Edward Reginelli 将在9月15日离职。
当前43.3亿美元营收中，约42亿美元来自数字资产交易，直接成本却高达41.9亿美元，真正留下的利润空间只有约710万美元。
交易量增长，单笔业务的赚钱能力却在下降。
质押业务也出现类似情况，平台抽成比例从一季度的16.1%降至6%。
BitGo此前在6月裁掉约15%的员工，并计划每年节省1500万美元现金支出。
公司强调现在最重要的任务不是继续把营收数字做大，而是把收入最大化能变成利润。
值得注意的是，BitGo目前还谈不上陷入财务危机。
公司手里有1.59亿美元现金、2523枚自持比特币，并且没有公司层面的债务。稳定币服务也是少数亮点，相关收入同比增长148%。
BitGo的财报反映了加密行业的变化：以前交易量、用户数和托管资产增长，市场愿意买单市场，现在市场最关心的还是业务利润。Analysis on August 13
After last night's CPI release, the market experienced a sharp rise and pullback, yet has yet to form a clear trend, and overall remains in a range-bound consolidation. In today's short-term early period, continue to focus on key support levels to avoid blindly chasing gains and selling losses.
$BTC
Support: 63,000
Pressure: 64,000-64,500
$ETH
Support: 1850-1870
Pressure: 1920-1950
#新手必看: Everything you need is here. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard The $ETH has minus 0.41% per day against the background of a compressed range.
Activity has fallen: volumes are cooling down, the coefficient is 0.45.
The nearest support is 1870.5 (within 0.34%), the nearest resistance is 1884.6 (0.41%).
As long as the pressure remains: if it loses 1870.5, the next benchmark is 1852.4.US July CPI (released on the evening of August 12 Beijing time)
Core data (all in line with market expectations)
- Overall CPI: year-on-year 3.4% (previous 3.5%), month-on-month +0.1% (previous -0.4%)
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy): year-on-year 2.5% (previous 2.6%), month-on-month +0.2% (previous 0.0%)
Key components
1. Housing: month-on-month +0.1%, contributing about two-thirds of the monthly CPI increase, still the largest source of inflation stickiness
2. Energy: month-on-month -1.5%, declining for the second consecutive month, gasoline prices fell; but year-on-year still relatively high, geopolitical risks remain
3. Food: month-on-month +0.1%, home food slightly declined, dining out continued to rise
4. Services: medical and airfare prices rose significantly, airfare month-on-month +2.2%
Market reaction
1. Probability of Fed rate hike in September fell from nearly 47% to the 35-40% range, market pricing increased likelihood of no rate change in September
2. US Treasury yields slightly declined, dollar weakened, US stocks and gold saw short-term gains; risk asset sentiment marginally improved
3. Inflation is cooling but still noticeably above the Fed's 2% target, expectations for rate cuts within the year remain very low
Implications for crypto market
- Data did not surprise on the downside or upside, considered "neutral to slightly positive," unlikely to trigger extreme moves;
- Key focus ahead: Jackson Hole speech at the end of August + August CPI, Morning analysis: The night after CPI, $BTC and $ETH didn't collapse, but they also couldn't rise
After last night's CPI "buy expectations, sell facts" crash, BTC and ETH quieted down late at night.
BTC hit a low of 63,288 in the early morning, just 125 points away from the low of 63,163 three days ago, but it didn't break through. Then it slowly climbed back up to 63,482. ETH's midnight low was 1,872, still $20 away from the safety cushion of 1,852 the day before, and now returns to 1,879. Both are trading slightly narrowly above their respective lows, without further breakouts or decent rebounds.
This is the market state after CPI—neither panic nor excitement. The data fully meets expectations, giving bears no reason to increase their holdings or an excuse for bulls to turn things around. The three-day decline temporarily halted at the 63,163 line, but the bulls have no strength to push upward. The direction is stuck in midair.
Tonight at 8:30 PM is the PPI. This is a supplementary confirmation from CPI—if PPI also moderates, the chain of cooling inflation will be complete, and the market will further suppress rate hike expectations. BTC's 63163 is very likely to hold. If PPI rebounds, it means cost pressure is still being transmitted to the consumer side, and 63163 will come under pressure again.
Key Levels: 63,163 below BTC is the life-or-death line for this round; if broken, 62,800 is worth it. 64,000 above is the level lost last night; only stabilization after holding back is necessary. 1872 below ETH is the early morning low, and 1852 is a hard bottom. 1900 above is resistance.
Before tonight's PPI, it's highly likely to be a stalemate period. Whether 63163 can hold remains to be seen tonight.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September?
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule supplementation Despite BTC's rise, derivative positions have already become vulnerable. The trader's experience of a sharp rise immediately after taking a short position clearly shows how sensitive the market has become to one-way bets. - The post mentions $APR and $BICO, expressing caution about the possibility of material depletion following a sharp rise. - There are three key facts. Right after entering the short position, there was a sharp rise, followed by another price drop, and now a moderate upward trend is underway. - This is an example showing how vulnerable derivatives positions can be to sudden price changes during short-term volatility phases. In this trend, what matters more than price direction is the quality of the derivative positions. A sharp rise triggers short liquidation, which in turn leads to a short squeeze. The subsequent decline is interpreted as a natural pullback as liquidated volumes have been absorbed. - This pattern is similarly observed in BTC and ETH. Especially in areas where short positions are excessively accumulated, prices react excessively even to small news reports. - The problem is this The CPI of 3.4% fully met expectations, so why did BTC fall after only a 0.3% increase?
Last night, did your heart race as you stared at the CPI data?
US July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, and core CPI was 2.5%, both accurately meeting expectations.
Inflation is cooling down. The probability of a rate hike in September has decreased. The negative news has disappeared.
You might think: BTC is about to take off, right?
And what happened?
BTC rebounded from $63,200 to $64,400, up 1.9%—then turned downward, plunging back near $63,500.
Full-day gains? 0.3%。
The Nasdaq rose 0.54%, and gold reversed in a V-shaped rally and gained over 1%.
Bitcoin, as if nothing had happened, just lying flat on the spot.
Are you stunned?
Where did the problem lie?
"Meeting expectations" is itself the biggest issue.
The market never pays for what is "expected."
A month ago, the probability of a rate hike in September was 30%. Everyone was anxious, panicked, and couldn't sleep.
After the CPI was released yesterday, CME data showed that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to 59.9%.
The probability of a rate hike dropping from 50% to 40%, and the expectation of rate cuts has gone from nothing to none—sounds great, right?
But the problem is: the market had already priced in the phrase "cooling inflation" even before the CPI was released.
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $854 million, the strongest since May.
The smart money had already gone in. When the data actually came out, everyone realized—"Oh, just as you guessed"—and then? No afterwards.
The buying opportunity is gone. Because what needed to be bought was already sold out last week.
The disappearance of negative news does not mean that good news has appeared.
What the market wants is not "no rate hikes." What the market wants is "certainty about rate cuts."
CPI was not given. So BTC didn't move either.
Going deeper: CPI of 3.4% is still 1.4 percentage points short of the Fed's 2% target.
Inflation has cooled down, but it's far from a 'victory.'
Oil prices are still hovering around $100. Housing costs rose 0.1% in July, accounting for two-thirds of the overall increase.
The Fed has no reason to cut rates. Not a single one.
So look at CME data—the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, and the probability of a rate hike is 40.1%.
No rate hikes, but no cuts either. This is what is called "higher for longer." For BTC, this is the most disgusting state.
Interest rate cuts are the engine of a bull market. Not raising rates just means "not dead," not "alive."
Speaking of which, I want to talk about another ongoing event—mining companies are collectively fleeing Bitcoin.
You may not have noticed: Core Scientific's AI data center hosting revenue soared from $8.6 million a year ago to $77.5 million, a year-on-year increase of more than ninefold, and has now replaced Bitcoin mining as the company's largest business line.
MARA, the world's largest publicly traded mining company, announced its transformation from a "Bitcoin mining company" to an "energy infrastructure platform." Riot Platforms has just signed a $9.1 billion, 20-year AI data center cooperation agreement with Anthropic.
Miners are voted with their feet.
After the halving, the block reward dropped to 3.125 BTC. The token price dropped from a peak of $126,000 to $64,000, halved.
Mining is no longer profitable. AI computing power rentals have instead become money printing machines. Even the most loyal Bitcoin miners are transforming—what do you think this means?
Back to the market.
BTC is currently stuck between $63,000 and $64,400, neither going up nor down. The 50-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average, indicating a bearish technical outlook.
The funding rate remains between +0.004% and +0.007%, with low long positions cost, no crowding, but also lack enthusiasm.
The market is waiting. Waiting for a real catalyst.
It could be tonight's PPI. It could be the FOMC at the end of the month. It could be a geopolitical black swan.
But it is definitely not a "CPI in line with expectations."
Finally, let me be honest with three things—
First, buy expectations, sell facts—this game has been played for a hundred years and has never changed.
CPI rises before the data comes out, then falls afterward. The script is clichéd, but people fall for it every time. Second, the market has already priced in "cooling inflation," and now what it wants is "certainty about rate cuts."
No CPI was given, so BTC didn't move either.
Third, even miners are transitioning to AI—are you still hoping BTC will take off with macro data?
Wake up.
This market needs something stronger than just "meeting expectations."KOSPI surges 23%, entering a technical bull market! $SKHYNIX Soars to 1143—How far can this AI boom go?
Guys, today the Korean stock market completely ignited—KOSPI surged over 4%, rebounding more than 20% from its July 30 low, officially entering a technical bull market. Samsung rose over 4%, SK Hynix soared over 7%, and the AI trading boom is making a comeback. Storage chip stocks have started to outperform the overall tech sector, marking the first time since June.
Looking at the 1-hour candlestick, SK Hynix pushed from around 1000 all the way to 1143, with all three RSI values surging. RSI 1 has risen above 88, indicating severe overbought and significant short-term risk of chasing highers. MACD crosses above the chart, but the red bars are starting to shorten, volume has shrunk, and the momentum for the rally has weakened.
Key locations:
Pressure: 1150-1160
Support: 1100-1120
Gongming's view: The medium-term logic is solid, driven by AI demand + shareholder returns + technical bull market. But short-term RSI is 88, so directly pushing to 1200 is unrealistic; it's more reliable to wait for a pullback and confirmation before rising.
Trading strategy:
Conservatively, wait for a pullback to support between 1100 and 1120 to buy long; aggressive positions should enter light near the current price.
A technical bull market is a medium-term signal, but don't chase the sharp short-term trends. #7月CPI平稳落地, September rate hike expectations cool #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days Last night's US July CPI was actually somewhat positive, but not strongly so; overall it met expectations, indicating that inflation has not worsened further and reducing market concerns about additional Fed rate hikes. However, $BTC did not rise because of this; instead, it fell back to around $63,600, showing that the current market cares more about capital flows and technical factors, with the positive news already partially priced in. Key levels to watch next: * $64,000: Short-term first res