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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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CPI让加息的风险降低了,但PPI才能告诉我们通胀是真的走了,还是只是歇了口气 CPI数据出来了——同比3.4%,核心CPI 2.5%,双双符合预期。 9月加息概率从48%掉到38%,维持不变的概率冲到62%。 好消息,对吧? 然后比特币冲了一下64,400,转头就砸到了63,500。 你没看错。利好出了,价格跌了。 为什么? 因为市场从来不为“符合预期”买单,市场只为“超出预期”狂欢。 3.4%的CPI,跟所有人猜的一模一样。没有惊喜,没有惊吓,什么都没有。 住房成本还是涨的,贡献了月度涨幅的三分之二。核心通胀2.5%,离美联储2%的目标还有半个点。 这组数据的真正含义是—— 加息的风险降低了,但降息的可能性?一点没增加。 Sygnum Bank的首席信息官说得很直白:“经济正在逐步降温,既没有衰退恐慌,也没有重新引发鹰派定价。” 翻译成人话:通胀没死,只是喘了口气。 而真正让我紧张的是下面这句话。 DWF Labs的管理合伙人Andrei Grachev昨晚说了一段话,我建议你读三遍: “符合预期的CPI数据……并没有解决太多问题。更有趣的细节是,比特币期权市场仍然对保护性期权收取高昂溢价。在8月底到期的期权中,接近60,000美元的下行行权价成本高于接近70,000美元的同等上行行权价。” 看懂了没? 市场愿意花更多的钱去买“比特币跌到6万”的保险,而不是买“比特币涨到7万”的彩票。 这不是看涨的信号,这是恐惧的定价。 Grachev还说了后半句—— “明天的PPI将是检验这一溢价是否开始缓解的下一个节点。” 今晚8:30,美国7月PPI公布。 前值PPI月率-0.3%、年率5.5%。市场预期月率转正到0.2%。 两种可能: PPI低于预期 → 生产端通胀全面降温,9月暂停加息概率继续上升,比特币可能突破64,400阻力位。 PPI高于预期 → 工厂还在涨价,成本还在往下游传,加息预期卷土重来,比特币面临63,000支撑位考验。 CPI是消费者已经付了多少钱。PPI是生产者还要涨多少钱。 前者告诉你过去,后者告诉你未来。 再说一个让人不安的信号。 分析师Rekt Capital在X上发了一张图:比特币从63,000美元区域反弹的力度,从6.27%→5.83%→3.18%→现在只剩1.15%。 反弹一次比一次弱。 Bitfinex的研究部门也说了:比特币在65,000-65,500区域已经被拒了六次。 六次。 同一个天花板,撞了六次都没过去。 这不是什么好兆头。 06. 所以今晚的策略很简单—— 别在CPI落地后重仓押注方向。 市场现在处在“等下一个数据”的真空期。期权市场还在为8月底的下行风险定价高溢价。 这意味着什么?意味着大资金还没下注。 他们在等PPI。等今晚8:30。 CPI让加息的风险降低了,但PPI才能告诉我们通胀是真的走了,还是只是歇了口气。 今晚8:30,你会盯着PPI数据吗? $BTC $ETH $XAU #7月CPI平稳落地,9月加息预期降温
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Miners Become 'Landlords': Behind the $9.1 billion AI order, Bitcoin's supply logic is being rewritten If a Bitcoin mining company no longer makes money by selling coins— Would you still look at it by the valuation of "miners"? On August 10, Riot Platforms dropped a bombshell. AI giant Anthropic—the company behind Claude—signed a 20-year hash rate lease with Riot. $9.1 billion, guaranteed minimum level. If both renewal options are fulfilled—$16.1 billion. Riot's approach is simple: lease 191 megawatts of power capacity from the Rockdale campus in Texas to Anthropic for AI operations. As soon as the news broke, Riot's stock price surged 25% in after-hours trading, surging to $24.40. A Bitcoin mining company sold "electricity" instead of "coins," giving itself a 25% increase. But if you think this is a simple positive story—you're too naive. Riot released its Q2 earnings report on the same day. Revenue was $174.2 million, exceeding expectations. However, net losses were $237.2 million, nearly double the market expectation. Losing 237 million yuan, the stock price rose 25%. What is the market betting on? The bet is that Riot is no longer just a "mining company." Behind this is an ongoing structural migration. In the first half of 2026, Riot has already sold 9,665 Bitcoins, cashing out $732.5 million. Why sell? Because mining is no longer profitable. The mining costs including depreciation for US-listed mining companies have already soared to $112,000. And how much is Bitcoin now? Around $64,000. Digging one is a loss for another. So mining companies collectively searched for solutions. Core Scientific's AI data center revenue soared from $8.6 million to $77.5 million, a ninefold year-on-year increase. IREN, Hut 8, Cipher Mining—all are turning. This is not a choice, but survival. Riot's $9.1 billion deal has pushed "transformation" to a new level. Bernstein's analysts did the math: AI hosting accounts for 84% of Riot's target enterprise value, while Bitcoin mining only makes up 11%. 84% vs 11%。 Is this still a "Bitcoin mining company"? H.C. Wainwright directly raised Riot's price target from $25 to $40. Morgan Stanley set a target price of $36, rating it as "Overweight." Wall Street is redefining this company. So what does this mean for those of us who hold Bitcoin? Three matters, each one deeply moving. First: Miners' pressure to sell coins is easing. Previously, miners were the "native sellers" of Bitcoin—they had to sell large amounts of Bitcoin every month to pay electricity bills and buy new mining machines. But things are different now. Riot sold 9,665 bitcoins in the first half of 2026 to invest in AI infrastructure. But after investing this money, it yielded 20 years of stable rental income of $9.1 billion. Once AI leases start generating cash flow, miners no longer need to rely on selling coins to keep operating. Reduced selling pressure → reduced BTC selling pressure. Second: The valuation logic of mining companies has changed. How did the market view mining companies in the past? They looked at hash rate, the number of mining machines, and the mining cost per coin. What about the future? Look at power capacity, long-term contracts, and customer credit. The capital market has consistently discounted valuations of Bitcoin mining companies, with EBITDA multipliers typically only 6 to 12 times. But what about AI data center companies? More than 10 times higher. The same assets—electricity, land, data centers—are labeled differently, and their valuations differ by nearly half. The third: and the most important item— Bitcoin's "supply-side narrative" is being rewritten. Over the past decade, the core narrative of "halving → reduced supply → price increases" has been Bitcoin's core narrative. But if miners no longer rely on selling coins to maintain cash flow—is the supply shock from the halving still that big? No one can answer this question now. Riot's deal will not be fully commercially operational until June 2028. $9.1 billion is the total revenue over 20 years, which averages out to about $450 million per year. Riot's current annual revenue is around $700 million. Distant water cannot quench the nearby thirst. Moreover, the market has already started to cool down. The day after the announcement, Riot's stock price gave back some of its gains during regular trading. Wall Street's attitude toward AI transformation among mining companies has shifted from "fanatic" to "rational." Early AI announcements could trigger an average of 24% of stock price volatility, but now only 10% remains. The storytelling stage is over; now it's about real money. So back to the initial question: Is Riot still a "Bitcoin mining company"? From the perspective of income structure—not yet. From the perspective of valuation logic—things have already started to change. In the long run—perhaps not anymore. Miners are shifting from "coin sellers" to "rent collectors." What this means for Bitcoin may need to be reconsidered. Do you think mining companies' transition to AI is a good thing or a bad thing? $BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单

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