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Musk is making empty promises again.
At a SpaceX all-hands meeting, he made a statement that completely changed the company's positioning—"In five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's value." ”
In Musk's eyes, SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company; AI revenue is expected to surpass the combined total of all other company businesses by September. By the end of next year, it aims to reach 10 gigawatts of computing power, which, according to his algorithm, would generate $300 to $500 billion in annual revenue. What does 10 gigawatts mean? Hundreds of thousands of GPUs running simultaneously, burning enough electricity to power a medium-sized city.
He also proposed a route of "ground training and space reasoning," essentially packaging Starship's transport capacity, Starlink network, and AI computing power into a single infrastructure. Rockets aren't just about sending satellites into space; they're paving the way for AI. The path is wild and the direction is indeed the same. Starlink's coverage is already so large, and if you add space computing nodes, the entire network architecture is indeed a dimension higher than ground data centers.
What does this have to do with the crypto world?
First, AI computing power demand is still exploding—it's not linear, it's exponential. If Musk's 10 gigawatts really land, hardware procurement alone would be astronomical. Miners waiting for computing costs to drop shouldn't get their hopes up too much in the short term—demand is still surging.
Second, capital will continue to concentrate in the AI track. AI and DePIN projects in the crypto community are more likely to attract attention and funding, but only if you have something substantial—not just good at presenting PPTs.
Third, the intersection between AI and crypto is deepening. Musk is working on space reasoning, crypto projects are working on decentralized computing power, and the two paths may eventually converge at some point. Whoever gets through first will be the next generation of infrastructure.
Let me share my thoughts. Musk's words may sound like bragging, but the realization rate of his boasting is higher than most people imagine. Starlink, Starship, and Tesla's AI training clusters are all real-world solutions. With SpaceX's cash flow and Starlink revenue as a safety net for 10 gigawatts, it's at least much more reliable than those empty crypto projects.
But for traders, this level of narrative corresponds to an investment cycle that is too long. You know it might be right, but you have to go through countless fluctuations along the way. Looking at the overall direction, the AI sector is still in its early stages; the real big market hasn't arrived yet. #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC CPI met expectations, rate hike expectations cooled, and tech stocks did breathe a sigh of relief.
Many people just want to go all in at once, but I suggest playing it safe~
But if you're planning to do medium- to long-term (1+year), relying solely on macro discount rates to boost valuations is far from enough. The key going forward is whether the company's EPS and AI expenses can be monetized.
Personally, I prefer the "core + flexibility" approach:
• 60%-70% core: QQQ / Giant base player. Strong cash flow, solid defense, able to hold on.
• 20%-30% Satellites: Semiconductors / AI computing power / Cloud computing. Consume high beta elasticity.
• 10% cash/short-term bonds: Keep them for dip fishing on pullbacks, never go all out at once.
Good news often comes with volatility; don't rush to chase highs with FOMO. Build positions over 3-6 months, hold onto the core, and wait for earnings reports to verify the logic—that's the real deal.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days The most common misunderstanding on the one-hour trending chart is that the total volume is mistaken for trends. The official snapshot of OKX Onchain OS dated 08:00 on August 13 shows that BTC, ETH, and SOL were mentioned 57, 27, and 40 times respectively in the past hour; The total 24-hour volume was 1,482, 638, and 601 times. To compare the two windows, you can first divide the total of 24 hours by 24, then use the latest hour to compare. The results were BTC at 0.92x, ETH at 1.02x, and SOL at 1.60x. A score above one indicates activity in the most recent hour compared to the full-day average; below one indicates relative quiet; This is just a discussion of speed, not rate of return. Based on this caliber, BTC is roughly close to the long window average, ETH is roughly close to the long window average, and SOL is clearly accelerating. Whoever has the highest original mentions may not necessarily be the one whose baseline temperature is rising the fastest. Distinguishing between "the highest volume" and the "fastest acceleration" can reduce many misjudgments. The tone is another layer to consider. BTC is close between bulls and bears, with slightly bullish and bearish rates of 30% and 26%, respectively; ETH is close between bulls and bears, with ratios of 26% and 22%; SOL is clearly bullish, with proportions of 35% and 8%. The key here is the denominator. ETH only happens 27 times per hour, SOL 40 times, so a few new texts can significantly change the percentage; Although BTC has a larger sample size, it may also contain forwards of the same event#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
美国7月CPI同比从3.5%降至3.4%，核心CPI从2.6%降至2.5%，整体符合预期。数据本身偏利好，至少说明通胀没有重新失控，再叠加此前偏弱的非农，美联储9月继续加息的理由又少了一些。
但市场反应其实没有想象中强，BTC目前约63500美元继续震荡，黄金也从CPI后的上涨回落至4386美元附近，这说明市场已经提前交易了一部分通胀降温，一份符合预期的CPI还不足以打开新的上涨空间。
对美股尤其是AI科技股来说，加息压力下降至少缓解了估值压力；BTC想真正向上，还是需要美元和美债收益率进一步回落；黄金短线跌破4400美元也不用过度解读，中东、财政赤字和货币政策这几条中期逻辑都还在。
CPI只是过关，不是发令枪。今晚继续看PPI，而真正决定后面通胀能不能继续降的，还是原油。如果布伦特长期顶在高位，这轮CPI带来的轻松可能维持不了多久。机构到底在押谁？BTC还是铁锚，ETH已经开始抢增量了说实话，每次刷到现货ETF资金流，我都会多看两眼。这已经是传统金融给加密世界的实名投票：钱往哪流，就说明他们更信什么。先问一句：机构还是只爱“数字黄金”BTC，还是已经开始给ETH这个“链上经济体”认真定价？BTC依旧是绝对锚点
现货$BTC ETF从上市起就是机构进加密的主入口。CoinShares数据显示，加密基金AUM一度冲到2110亿美元时，BTC始终占大头。哪怕单周BTC+ETH合计吸金37亿美元，BTC也从没让过位置。逻辑太简单：稀缺、抗通胀、宏观对冲，董事会也好交差。但ETH正在抢增量
真正有意思的是$ETH 曾有一周，ETH现货ETF流入直接干到21.2亿美元，几乎咬住BTC的21.96亿美元。这说明市场开始认真想：是不是该从“只买数字黄金”再往前走一步，买点有质押收益、能跑应用的东西？ETF资金流远不止价格信号，更像传统金融的风险偏好体检。只买BTC，说明还把加密当避险+投机；ETH开始抢量，则是有人愿意赌链上真实经济能跑出来。BTC还是压舱石，ETH则在抢那些想吃增量的钱。Micron's $MU locks in a floor price through the 3-5 year SCA protocol, converting cyclical spot fluctuations into capital expenditure certainty, but risk appetite transmission depends on whether downstream computing Capex can continue to deliver on long-term contracts.
Market facts show that major clients are forcing lockdown orders, which has driven a restructuring of memory chip pricing logic. In terms of driver rankings, rigid AI server demand ranks first, followed closely by macro inflation expectations and changes in risk appetite, with short-term spot price fluctuations taking a secondary position.
From the perspective of event risk transmission, stable inflation expectations help sustain investment in computing infrastructure, increasing market risk appetite for tech growth stocks and concentrating capital positions toward long-term contracts with defensive bottom prices.
The trigger for a bullish scenario is that downstream data center Capex continues to expand, and more 3-5 year SCA long-term contracts are implemented as planned. At this point, it is necessary to observe the fulfillment rate of major clients' long-term contracts. If fulfillment is stable and the bottom price takes effect, it will increase the consistency of position holdings; The expiration signal is a sudden increase in spot selling pressure, squeezing the long-term contract premium.
The trigger for a bearish scenario is that a decline in macro risk appetite leads server customers to tighten Capex, which in turn triggers risks of long-term contract rebooking or slowed fulfillment pace. At this point, it is necessary to observe long-term contract default risk indicators and the speed of position outflows. If major clients show signs of premature order adjustments, selling pressure will be released quickly; The failure signal is that spot prices will surge, exceeding expectations once again.
If downstream computing power Capex is significantly reduced, or if large-scale long-term contract terms are revised, the original assumption of profit certainty will immediately become invalid, and capital positions will revert to the traditional storage cycle game framework.
The most noteworthy variable in the next seven days is changes in Capex spending guidance from major downstream server manufacturers and the disclosure of long-term contract fulfillment data for storage chips.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cool, #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebounded over 22% in ten days #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report takes the stage one after anotherJuly’s U.S. inflation print shifts the balance of risk without settling the policy debate. Headline CPI eased to 3.4% YoY and core CPI to 2.5%, both matching forecasts, while the odds of no September rate change rose to 59.9%.
The more revealing signal is the divergence across markets: short-term Treasury yields declined, gold reversed an initial fall, and BTC remained rangebound. That suggests less urgency around an immediate hike, not broad conviction that inflation risk has disappeared. With fiscal deficits and term premiums still supporting long-end rates, today’s PPI matters for whether this repricing can hold. Not advice, just analysis.
#CPIEasesHikeBets#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
I'm the mid-line intelligence bro. Focusing on Musk's line, "AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value in five years," I started by pouring cold water: don't let slogans sway the rhythm—this is a valuation anchor switch, not a rocket business reversal.
Hard data is clear: Q2 AI revenue was $2.6 billion, up +213% quarter-on-quarter and +247% year-on-year. In September, it aims to surpass the combined total of aerospace + Starlink, and by the end of next year, it aims to boost 10 GW of computing power, corresponding to annual revenue of $300–500 billion.
In the medium term, Starship/Starlink haven't been abandoned; they've been downgraded to an 'AI physical foundation'—trained on the ground and on inference orbits, rockets becoming computing power transport tools. This narrative directly pulls SpaceX from aerospace PE to AI PS, switching valuation models—that's the real 99% truth.
Intelligence Bro's judgment: short-term is just a pie in the sky; in the medium-term, focus on 10 GW implementation and monetization through Grok's enterprise API. As long as computing power rental revenue continues to be recognized, SpaceX will no longer be a space stock but a space computing power stock. But 99% of this is extreme extrapolation; the tangible value of aerospace assets is less than 1%. In the medium term, just trust "AI-led" — don't believe in "space reset."
Stability is the priority; once the Q3-Q4 revenue structure materializes, the anchor will be adjusted.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
$SPCX Wind speed was 4 meters per second, humidity was 65%, and the target was 1,800 meters away. In my scope, breathing had to stop precisely between two heartbeats—because in a very distant hunting ground, even the slightest pulse would send a bullet off the target by dozens of centimeters.
That paranoid commander assigned new coordinates to his tactical squad on the radio channel: before September this year, the cash flow generated by algorithmic computing power must outshine all the hydrocarbon fuel roars on the launch tower; By the end of 2027, the 10-gigawatt computing power matrix must deliver annual results of 300 to 500 billion US dollars on the battlefield; Within five years, 99% of the value of the entire arsenal will depend on the firing pin of the "ground training and space reasoning" space armor-piercing munition.
To onlookers, this sounds like a super heavy bullet piercing the era. But the sniper lying in the wet, cold shelter only sees the cold truth of ballistics.
The ideal parabola on blueprints has never been the same as a confirmed kill at the impact point. A massive ten-gigawatt computing power matrix means terrifying recoil generated by tens of billions in capital expenditure. Starship's payload frequency, orbital cooling bottlenecks, interference from high-altitude high-energy particles—every unresolved engineering variable is an unpredictable high-altitude crosswind. The frenzied chase of funds on the market is like a group of rookies blindly cheering in a night vision goggle, not even calculating the target's wind deviation correction before already celebrating victory in advance.
Looking at the tactically linked $XMSFT markets, the halo on the crosshair edge is slightly deflected due to the heavy pressure of capital expenditures. Management's performance forecasts are merely manual data before shooting; exposing hidden positions and blindly pulling the trigger before the market's black hole in capital consumption and actual execution risks is fully priced in will only make you a target for the enemy's anti-materiel rifle.
My hunting ground rule is always one thing: trading isn't about the frequency of gunfire, but about long, silent lurking and ruthless killing strikes. Without forming an ideal profit-loss ratio and waiting until the target is fully in the rangefinder's blind spot, any emotional impulse is fatal.
Wind speed change, bolt locking.
#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI Last night, I watched people Photoshop the GME pot all night, but didn't make a move. When your attention is focused on it, you can actually make money, as long as you act fast
The few stocks still holding up on BSC are obvious: the ones with many retail investors can no longer hold on, while the high-control ones are still okay with little volatility. As long as the market makers don't retreat, these high-controlled ones are relatively stable. Of course, those with more retail investors who enter early have more room to go—it depends on which type suits you
Actually, many projects follow certain patterns. For example, a few days ago, I guessed who the market owner was by who was trading and linked it to the previous project to reverse that project's trend, and it was 100% accurate.
$BTC AI earnings season: a world of fire and ice.
CoreWeave, the leading computing cloud company, posted Q2 revenue of $2.575 billion, more than doubling year-on-year, far exceeding expectations, with its stock price rising 19% that night. Nebius rose 34%, AMD Computer rose 19%, and Lumentum in optical communications rose 13.63%. It seems like the AI fundamentals are solid, right?
But on the same day, Meta fell 3.38%, Microsoft dropped 2.26%, and the seven tech giants overall declined. All funds were pouring into "AI infrastructure stocks," while the leaders were abandoned.
A few days ago, Dalio publicly said: "We are already in an AI bubble." "Three signs of collapse: rising interest rates, increased stock supply, and retail investors leveraging to rush in."
The earnings report is genuinely good, and the valuation is genuinely expensive. Is it the fundamentals holding the line, or is it just a final celebration?Combining the previous round's pressure/support framework, break down the current SNDK trading approach (closing at 1344.29 on 8/12, stuck between 1300 support and 1389/1500 resistance) into three scenarios, all based on "no trend longs under bearish moving average alignment, only rebound or breakdown shorts."
1. Current Market Qualitative Assessment
• Main trend: Bearish (price below MA20≈1393, MA50≈1688; ADX 15.6 indicates weak trend but downward direction)
• Short term: 1300–1389 range consolidation, MACD negative bars narrowing, RSI ~47 neutral, representing oversold recovery rather than reversal
• Fundamental overhang: NAND Q3 contract price gains dropped sharply from +70% to +17~20%; on 8/13 investor day, wide-range oscillation likely to persist, making one-sided moves difficult
2. Three Trading Scripts (applicable to spot/perpetual, price points in USD)
Script A: Buy on support pullback (short-term rebound, medium priority)
• Entry: 1300–1264 (around MA10 + 1300 psychological level), more conservative at 1230–1240 (8/3 rebound start zone) with volume contraction and bullish close
• Stop loss: Exit if price breaks below 1190 effectively (i.e., losing 1200 round number support), no holding through
• Targets: First 1389 (8/12 high) → Second 1487–1500 (MA20 strong resistance zone)
• Position size: ≤20%, leverage ≤3x; halve position at 1389 to secure breakeven, remaining position targets 1487
• Trigger conditions: Opening does not break 1300, MU/WDC/SK Hynix simultaneously stop falling, 5-minute volume surge bullish candle confirmation
Script B: Short at rebound to resistance (with main trend, high priority)
• Entry: 1389–1410 (intraday high + previous high resistance) with stagnation and long upper shadow; or 1487–1500 (MA20) rally then pullback
• Stop loss: Above 1520 (bullish surprise) to stop loss, indicating resistance failure
• Targets: First 1300 → Second 1210–1230 → Third 998–1000 (monthly low)
• Position size: ≤15%; this is the higher probability plan following bearish moving averages, but note 1300 has support, so take partial profits at first target
• Trigger conditions: Rebound with low volume, weak storage sector/SOX, CPI or US Treasury yields leaning hawkish
Script C: Breakdown short (defense line breached, medium priority)
• Signal: Daily candle effectively breaks below 1300 and next candle does not recover → or further break below 1210 platform
• Entry: Short on failure to reclaim 1300 after break; or short directly on break below 1210
• Stop loss: Pullback above breakdown price by 2% (e.g., if break 1300, stop loss at 1326)
• Targets: 1000 round number → extreme 850 (July panic extension level)
• This is only done when accompanied by bearish news like "NVIDIA cuts HBM/NAND prices again"; pure technical breakdowns often encounter bottom-fishing rebounds around 1200
Counter-trend breakout long (standby only, not active)
• Condition: Large volume bullish close above 1500 (upper MA20)
• Stop loss 1389, target 1707 (MA50) — no trend longs before this candle
3. Risk Control Iron Rules (SNDK volatility often 10%+, mandatory for contracts)
1. Single trade loss capped at 1–2% principal, leverage ≤3x, no heavy positions 30 minutes before open (US market often gaps at 21:30 Beijing time)
2. No chasing rallies or selling into dips within the 1300–1389 range; wait for boundary touch + candle confirmation before acting
3. Always pre-set stop loss, no averaging down; lock profits at first target to breakeven
4. Monitor MU, WDC, SK Hynix, SOX — SanDisk rebounds alone tend to be weak, trade with sector resonance
5. News around 8/13 investor day prone to spikes; try to close positions intraday, avoid overnight holds
Summary: 1300 is the bull-bear gate, 1389 is the short-term ceiling, 1500 is the trend switch. Below 1500, treat overall as "rebound—short or breakdown short"; only above 1500 consider trend reversal longs. #黄金站上4400美元, demand for risk avoidance is heating up
· Why are gold prices so strong? Looking at tonight's (August 13) US July CPI data, if inflation falls short of expectations, it will strengthen rate cut expectations and directly benefit gold. The medium- to long-term support is the three points you mentioned: rate cut expectations (weak employment data), geopolitical risks (Hormuz agreement not yet implemented), and continued central bank gold purchases. This round of gains has stronger fundamentals than before.
· Large movement in XAUT (Tether Gold): Abraxas Capital transfers $110 million worth of XAUT, usually a large amount of funds adjusting positions or preparing for trading, not direct buying. However, the wallet still holds about $600 million, indicating that the whales have not exited and remain confident about the market outlook.
· Controversy over "digital gold": The post vividly mocks BTC for "playing dead." The current market logic is "safe haven" and "resistance to rate cuts," with funds directly flowing into physical gold and its token (XAUT). BTC leans more toward "risk assets" and only shows its "digital gold" attributes during real global panic, so this time it really didn't keep up.
· What should be watched going forward? Short-term CPI data is a key variable; In the medium term, see if geopolitical tensions worsen; Technically, $4400 has become strong support; if it holds firm, the next step may test the psychological barrier of $4500.
Overall, gold has a solid foundation for its strength, and XAUT directly benefits as an on-chain compliant gold token. However, if tonight's CPI exceeds expectations, it could trigger sharp fluctuations, so be cautious of risks when trading short-term. #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温
最近一直在盯着黄金这条线，说实话走势是真的强。
金价已经站上4400美元关口，8月11日最高冲到4448.8美元一盎司，仅仅这个月涨幅就已经超过8%，白银也跟着同步走强。不光是现货黄金，链上黄金资产也出现明显的资金调动，Abraxas Capital相关钱包三天转出大约2.54万枚XAUT，折合1.1亿美元，整个钱包持仓规模依旧接近6亿美元，大资金在贵金属赛道的动作十分明显。
这一轮金价走强，并不是单一因素推动。就业数据偏弱，市场对于加息的预期被压低，加上霍尔木兹海峡谈判迟迟没有落地，叠加各国央行持续购金，避险资金扎堆涌入，一层层把金价托了起来。
有一个细节我也留意到了，传统黄金一路冲高，被称作数字黄金的比特币，这一轮却没有跟上节奏，联动性明显减弱。
接下来重点就是今晚美国7月CPI数据，这份数据会直接牵动美元、实际利率的走向，贵金属也会迎来一次大波动。黄金和链上XAUT这波强势能不能守住，核心还是要看避险资金会不会继续留在贵金属板块里。行情瞬息万变，我会继续保持观察，不盲目追高。政策这只靴子，终于在华盛顿的地板上挪动了几步，声音不大，但圈内人都竖起了耳朵。SEC那边传来消息，说接下来几天要推两件大事，一件是给加密项目的募资开一条专属通道，圈里人管这叫Regulation Crypto，说白了就是别再逼着每个项目都走传统IPO那套让人脱层皮的流程，给个豁免的台阶，让大家能光明正大地筹钱。另一件更有意思，是要搞个创新豁免，让数字版股票能在区块链上全天候交易，七天二十四小时不停歇，这要是真成了，美股那套朝九晚四的老规矩，怕是要被撬开一道口子。 很多人可能会问，这算不算美国终于想通了？别急，故事还没到高潮。众议院那边早在2025年7月就以294票对134票的悬殊比分通过了一个叫《数字资产市场清晰法案》的东西，听着挺提气，参议院银行委员会也过了，可一到了参议院全体投票这关，就像老牛拉破车，硬生生卡在八月的休会期前，愣是没捞到表决机会。现在说要等九月中旬，但掐指一算，中期选举在即，政治日程挤得跟早高峰地铁似的，加上一堆关于道德条款、DeFi这些犄角旮旯的争议还没磨平，华盛顿那帮分析师给出的通过概率，也就勉强25%，这个数字，让人心里凉半截。 可你说怪不怪，SEC这边倒是一#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
All four figures were at the expected level—July CPI year-on-year was 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core CPI year-on-year was 2.5% (previous 2.6%), and core month-on-month was 0.2%, with none of them breaking through.
The biggest positive news isn't a sharp drop in inflation, but rather that it "hasn't scared the market again." The data is realized: the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to 59.9%; The CME's probability of a rate hike in September fell to a one-month low, with ZeroHedge saying it cut 16 basis points compared to two weeks ago. The dollar softened briefly in the short term, while short-term US Treasury yields retreated, and gold fell first then rose to 4389—funds are repricing the "Fed temporarily holding it back."
BTC, on the other hand, was the weakest: 63,550 was flat, down 0.4% in 24 hours, perpetual OI at $2.14 billion unchanged, rate +0.01% neutral. Soft landing for inflation is usually a positive sign, but this time it chose to wait—because what really could be derailed were tonight's PPI and employment revision, while CPI only got off to a solid start.
If you're optimistic, don't forget: the nonfarm payrolls in May and June cut nearly 70,000 jobs, and July employment has turned negative. The next stage is the bet on which will accelerate the worsening employment or Middle Eastern inflation.
#CPI #美联储 $BTC $ETH $OKB Last night's CPI of 3.4% fully met expectations, so why did $BTC fall back after only a 0.3% increase?
$ETH Why are you stuck in place?
Last night, did your heart race as you stared at the CPI data?
After the CPI was released yesterday, CME data showed that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to 59.9%.
The probability of a rate hike dropping from 50% to 40%, and the expectation of rate cuts has gone from nothing to none—sounds great, right?
But the problem is: even before the CPI was released, the market had already priced in the phrase "cooling inflation."
US July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, and core CPI was 2.5%, both accurately meeting expectations.
Inflation is cooling down. The probability of a rate hike in September has decreased. The negative news has disappeared.
$BTC Is it about to take off?
And what happened?
BTC rebounded from $63,200 to $64,400, up 1.9%—then turned downward, plunging back near $63,500.
Full-day gains? 0.3%。
The Nasdaq rose 0.54%, and gold reversed in a V-shaped rally and gained over 1%.
Bitcoin, as if nothing had happened, just lying flat on the spot.
Are you stunned?
Where did the problem lie?
"Meeting expectations" is itself the biggest issue.
The market never pays for what is "expected."
A month ago, the probability of a rate hike in September was 30%. Everyone was anxious, panicked, and couldn't sleep.
After the CPI was released yesterday, CME data showed that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to 59.9%.
The probability of a rate hike dropping from 50% to 40%, and the expectation of rate cuts has gone from nothing to none—sounds great, right?
But the problem is: the market had already priced in the phrase "cooling inflation" even before the CPI was released.
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $854 million, the strongest since May.
Smart money has already gone in.
When the data actually came out, everyone discovered—"Oh, just as we guessed"—and then? No "after."
The buying opportunity is gone. Because what needed to be bought was already sold out last week.
The disappearance of negative news does not mean that good news has appeared.
What the market wants is not "no rate hikes." What the market wants is "certainty about rate cuts."$BTC: Calm Before the Storm? 👀🔥
Bitcoin is moving sideways around $63.5K, but underneath the surface, things are getting interesting.
SAR is sitting near $64.4K, while EMA21 and EMA55 are both turning down. Every bounce is getting squeezed by resistance.
And then there’s the miner data… 👇
Bitcoin miner fee income has fallen to just 0.69% — near a 10-year low.
That sounds bearish at first. But historically, extreme miner-income weakness has often appeared around major BTC bottoming phases, including periods before the big moves in 2015 and 2019.
The crazy part? Hash rate is still making new highs. Miners are under pressure, but they’re still fighting to survive.
Meanwhile, KDJ is sitting low, RSI6 is around 38.8, and BTC volume is nowhere near strong enough to convince me that bulls can easily reclaim $65K.
So here’s the battle:
🔴 $65K = major resistance
🟡 $62K = key support
🟢 $60K = bulls’ last major defense
My short-term view: BTC could lose $63K, retest $62K, and then we’ll see whether the bulls can defend the bigger picture.
But here’s the twist…
What if this miner-income collapse isn’t a warning of a crash, but actually the signal that a major bottom is forming?
If history rhymes, $70K may not be as far away as it looks. 👀🚀
I’m watching the next few days very closely.
Bottom signal or crash signal? What’s your call? 🔥
#DailyOrbit With inflation cooling down, why is Bitcoin "stagnant"?
US July CPI year-on-year fell to 3.4%, and core CPI dropped to 2.5%, both in line with expectations. Inflation continues to cool, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping from 48% before the data release to about 38%—which should have been a clear positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin did not rally and instead remained fluctuating around $63,500.
Expectations have long been digested. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of about $854 million for five consecutive days in the week before the CPI release, with funds already positioning themselves around easing inflation and cooling rate hike expectations. When the positive news materialized, there was actually a lack of reason for further surges.
Geopolitical risks have been hedged. US-Iran negotiations have once again stalled, hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz dashed, and Brent crude climbed to $89. Rising oil prices, in turn, have pushed up inflation expectations and interest rate hike concerns, which have offset easing expectations brought by cooling CPI.
Policy direction remains uncertain. Although inflation is cooling down, it is still quite far from the Fed's 2% target. The probability of a rate hike in September remains close to 40%, and the market lacks a clear consensus on direction.
A "not too bad" data does not mean liquidity will immediately return. Bitcoin's true breakthrough still requires clearer policy signals.
$BTC
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled $LIGHT Bitlight In-Depth Research: Selling Higher or Buying at Low Prices?
#Bitcoin Is Layer 2 a pseudo-demand?
90% of the chips remain unlocked—who will take over?
Speaking of Bitcoin #Layer 2, it has been one of the hottest sectors in the crypto market since 2024. After the Ethereum re-staking narrative saturated, funds began to flow back into the Bitcoin ecosystem—#RGB protocol, #Taproot assets, #Ordinals...... Various project teams are eagerly labeling Bitcoin as "programmable." Representative projects include #Stacks, #Merlin Chain, and $B² Network, which once supported multi-billion dollar valuations during bull market peaks.
Amid this wave of Bitcoin Layer 2 narratives, Bitlight Labs made a strong debut with the "RGB protocol + Lightning Network" technology combination, claiming to bring smart contracts and stablecoin transactions directly to the Bitcoin mainnet—no cross-chain or trust third-party transactions. Sounds great, doesn't it?
However, since $LIGHT launched in October 2025 #PancakeSwap, it has plummeted from its all-time high of $4.80 to the current $0.16, a drop of 96.7%. Meanwhile, between $67M of FDV and a mere $6.9M of circulating market cap, there is an uncirculated gap of up to 89.7%—whose wallet are those locked tokens? Today, I'll take you through the trump cards of this project Yesterday, the Hong Kong stablecoin market took a very critical step. Anchorpoint Financial, with participation from Standard Chartered Bank, has officially launched the first phase issuance of the HKD stablecoin HKD At Par (HKDAP). This time, it's not concepts, testnets, or "preparing to apply for licenses." Anchorpoint is now a stablecoin issuer officially licensed by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses issued by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on April 10, 2026, is limited to just two licenses: Anchorpoint and HSBC. Now one of them has truly started bringing products to market. 1. The first phase is not for retail investors to speculate on cryptocurrencies. According to the latest report from Reuters, the first phase of HKDAP is mainly open to institutional distributors and professional investors. These authorized participants can facilitate exchanges between HKDAP and fiat currencies and connect them to commercial and financial applications. Anchorpoint clearly stated that the current focus is on real-world use cases such as payments and settlements. The company plans to expand to retail users as early as the end of 2026, but this will still depend on market conditions. This is very important. The primary goal of HKDAP is not: to speculate on exchanges; Aim for high APY; Issuing coins to boost TVL. From the very beginning, it has been doing business settlement; Payment; Fiat currency exchange; Commercial scenarios. This is completely different from the growth path of many native crypto stablecoins. 2. The underlying shareholder mix itself indicates the direction of Anchor截至8月13日早间，BTC约63,472美元，日内高点约64,298美元、低点约63,267美元。昨晚美国7月CPI落地后，BTC没有出现市场期待的突破，依然被压在近期震荡区间内部。 ① CPI没有爆雷，但BTC也没把利好变成上涨 美国7月CPI环比上涨0.1%，同比从6月的3.5%降至3.4%；核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比从2.6%降至2.5%，全部基本符合市场预期。数据公布后，美债收益率下降，美元指数小幅走弱，美股反而上涨。 从传统风险资产的角度看，这份CPI至少不是坏消息。 但BTC的问题恰恰在这里： 宏观环境稍微改善了，价格却没有明显反应。 CPI之后BTC依然运行在64,000美元下方，说明现在市场真正缺的不是“一个不差的数据”，而是能够主动追价的新增资金。The Block也指出，BTC在CPI之后仍被困在大约62,000—66,000美元的震荡区间。 ② ETF没有重新形成强劲买盘 目前Farside最新表格中，8月12日所有BTC ETF产品暂时均显示0.0；考虑到数据仍可能继续更新，我不会把它直接解读成“当天完全零资金流”。最新可以明确确认的完整非零数据仍是8月1#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Family, Musk is making empty promises again, this time making a big picture. These past few days, Mi Ge's livestream has been talking about not shorting, not shorting, not shorting, if you want to do it, only go long, chase long, keep bullish. It's already at 149, really 🐮
In the early hours of August 12, SpaceX released a video of Musk's internal speech. It lasted 29 minutes, with the core saying in one sentence: AI is going to swallow SpaceX, and all other businesses are just supporting roles.
Let's first see what he said.
AI revenue could surpass the combined total of rocket, spacecraft, and Starlink businesses as early as September this year. Within four to five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value. The goal is to build 10 gigawatts of AI computing power by the end of next year, corresponding to annual revenue of $300 billion to $500 billion. Starlink will carry over 90% of global internet traffic in the future. Starship's annual payload capacity will increase from 2,500 tons to over 1 million tons.
He also made a much-musk statement: in five years, SpaceX's value will be an "astronomical figure."
Let's break down the numbers.
SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, AI business $2.6 billion, up 213% quarter-on-quarter and 247% year-on-year. Starlink $4.291 billion, space launches $962 million. AI business is already the second largest source of revenue, and its growth rate far exceeds traditional businesses. September surpassed the total of all other businesses, which is quite possible at this rate.
But on the other hand, the AI business posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion in Q2. Last year, SpaceX lost 4.9 billion yuan for the whole year, mainly from investments in AI infrastructure. AI capital expenditure in the first half of the year soared from 3.3 billion yuan in the same period last year to over 23 billion yuan. 10 gigawatts of computing power means expanding tenfold from the current scale. Where does the money come from? It depends on continuing to burn.
How did the market react?
On the day the earnings report was released, SpaceX fell 8% in after-hours trading due to capital expenditures far exceeding expectations. The first batch of 911.5 million shares was unlocked, and the market worried about selling pressure worth hundreds of billions. But after the lock-up, the stock price rose 23% in two days, and the short sellers were hit hard. But don't celebrate too soon—on August 20, about 7% of the restricted shares will be unlocked [as added in context]. Short positions hold 219 million shares, accounting for 34% of the free float, and these people won't easily admit defeat [as further provided in the context].
Mi Ge said a few words.
Musk's promises are never for eating, but for valuation. From Tesla to SpaceX, he's played this trick for over a decade, and it's always been effective. But this time, there are a few questions worth pondering for a few more seconds.
99% of valuation comes from AI, implying that rockets, Starlink, Starship—things that took twenty years to build will only be worth 1% in five years. So why would he spend so much money on Starship? Why launch tens of thousands of satellites? Logically, it doesn't make sense. It's more like telling a bigger story to the market.
10 gigawatts of computing power corresponds to 300 to 500 billion yuan in annual revenue, and this estimate is based on two premises: computing power can be built on time and market demand can keep pace. AI computing power demand is indeed exploding, but marginal growth is already slowing. The storage sector's earnings guidance has already begun to be cautious [based on context]. If there is any loosening on the demand side, this accounting method must be recalculated.
SpaceX's current situation is actually very clear—its traditional business is making money but its growth is limited, while its AI business is burning cash but its story is attractive. The market is willing to pay for this story, but only if Musk delivers on time. In September, AI revenue surpassed other businesses, which can be seen as a signal. If it really succeeds, the story can continue. If not, this rebound could be another peak for a phase.
How should you interpret this position?
The rebound after the unlock-up shows that the bear market's logic isn't smooth, but the pace of AI burning money won't disappear out of thin air. When you don't understand, control your positions—don't get carried away by just one sentence from Musk. Wait for the September AI revenue data to come out, and for real progress in 10 GW of computing power, then talk about faith.
How much do you think Musk's promises this time will be fulfilled? Let's talk in the comments $SPCX $BTC $SNDK #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
7月CPI平稳落地！9月加息概率砸到40%，BTC这波“假利空”变真助攻？
昨晚美国7月CPI公布：
• 整体CPI同比 3.4%（前值3.5%）
• 核心CPI同比 2.5%（前值2.6%，追平2021年来低位）
• 环比整体+0.1%，核心+0.2%，全在预期内
数据一出来，CME FedWatch把9月加息25bp的概率从50%附近直接砸到 39%–43%，维持不变概率抬到57%+。美股期指跳涨、美元小跌、黄金拉十周新高，美债短端收益率先下后回抽——市场一句话总结：“不急着加息了，但也没到降息庆祝的时候”。
放到币圈怎么翻译？
• 紧信用预期退潮 → 无风险利率上行压力暂缓 → BTC/ETH的“宏观压制”松了一扣
• 但通胀还卡在3.4%（离2%目标远着）→ 不是宽松拐点，只是从“必加”变成“可不加”
• 真正定9月死活的其实是8月非农+8月CPI，现在只是中段赛点，不是终场哨
所以别看群里已经有人开始喊“和平牛市2.0”“加息结束牛来了”——这数据撑不起反转，撑得起的是：震荡里多头敢接、空军不敢追、山寨流动性先回一口血。
我个人判断：
• BTC 短线看前高附近承接，宏观给的是“不杀估值”环境，不是“猛灌水”环境
• ETH 和老牌L1跟风险偏好修复，Meme看资金轮动速度
• 真要确认宽松预期，得等核心PCE也软+就业再弱一次，单月CPI不够盖章
币圈交易的从来不是现实，是预期差。昨晚这份CPI的价值，就是把“9月一定加息”这个共识打掉，让盘面从宏观紧箍咒里喘口气。#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Musk recently said something exaggerated at a SpaceX all-hands meeting: In five years, AI could contribute 99% of SpaceX's value. If you only interpret this as "Musk is telling stories to AI again," you would miss a very important asset pricing change behind it. Because what SpaceX is doing is not adding an AI business to rocket companies, but trying to compress rocket capacity, satellite communications, energy, GPUs, data centers, and AI models into a single infrastructure network. That's why I believe the final impact of this incident is far more than just $SPCX. It could once again impact the entire $US AI industry chain, as well as $BTC, $ETH, $TAO, $AKT, and even a group of listed companies that were once labeled "mining stocks" by the market. The real main theme of trading is not "AI is hot again." Instead: computing power is shifting from a software issue to an infrastructure issue determined by energy, chips, networks, and capital expenditure together. The biggest change in SpaceX is the shift from Starlink to AI, and the market is buying SpaceX in the past. The market mainly focuses on three things. Falcon and Starship represent capacity. Starlink stands for Cash Flow. Mars represents forward optionality. But now there's another one, and it's likely to become the most important one—AI. Musk in August, the entire staff63,500横了六天，八月下半场往哪走？ BTC报63,500美元附近，过去一周几乎没动。63,000-64,000这个区间，磨了整整六天。 八月上半场，市场交出了一份“窄幅震荡”的答卷。下半场怎么走，需要拆解几件事。 一、CPI数据落地了，但市场没反应 昨天美国7月CPI同比3.4%，完全符合预期。纳斯达克应声上涨0.54%，但BTC仅在数据公布后反弹约0.3%便回落。市场已经提前定价了通胀降温，CPI没有超预期，就构不成新的买盘催化剂。 CME数据显示，9月加息概率已从一个月前的30%升至60%左右。好消息是加息预期在升温但幅度有限，坏消息是降息预期依然遥不可及。加密资产仍在“没有新利好”的真空期。 高盛与摩根大通两位策略师近日罕见同台表态：美联储年内大概率按兵不动，加息并非基准情形。高盛判断通胀向更广泛领域蔓延的迹象有限，摩根大通则认为工资未能形成持续推动物价上涨的动力。两大机构的判断，为市场提供了一个“加息不至于失控”的基准参照。 二、CLARITY法案推迟至9月，监管催化剂缺席 美国参议院未能在8月休会前推动CLARITY法案表决，投票时间推迟至9月。这意味着整个八月，加密行#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%
Let's talk about the recent split situation in the treasury of listed companies. After reading the news, I still feel quite touched.
Empery Digital recently sold nearly half of its BTC reserves, selling a total of 1,400 BTC since May at an average price of about $62,200, raising over 80 million USD. The funds were used to invest in AI data centers, repay debts, and cover legal expenses. Interestingly, not long ago, this company was aggressively increasing its BTC holdings, showing a significant contrast in operations.
Now the entire treasury camp is clearly divided into three attitudes.
One group chooses to sell BTC and pivot to the AI sector;
Tether, for example, which used to buy BTC with 15% of its quarterly profits, seems to have paused this move in Q2, opting to wait and see;
And Boya Interactive still insists on buying more on dips, continuing to accumulate coins. Even Strategy, which has always been firmly holding, has included selling coins in its policy plan.
There is no unified standard answer; each company has made different choices based on their own cash flow and plans.
On one side, the AI story is very attractive; on the other, there is the long-term narrative of BTC. Who will come out on top? Let's just watch the show slowly.#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
Recently, the South Korean capital market has seen a powerful rebound, with the KOSPI index posting an intraday gain of over 4%. Since starting from the July 30 low, the cumulative rebound has exceeded 22%, officially entering a technical bull market.
The core driving force of this round of market movement is memory chip giants represented by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. During the session, Samsung Electronics' gains once exceeded 5%, while SK Hynix surged more than 7%. The rapid surge directly triggered the suspension mechanism for programmatic buy-orders, reflecting the strong capital rush. The underlying logic supporting sector strength is clear: global AI capital spending remains high, the prosperity of the memory chip and optical communication industry chains continues to recover, and industry fundamentals are steadily improving.
In addition, a major rumor continues to stir up the market: Temasek is evaluating direct investment in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Although there is still no clear information on the scale or timing of the investment, expectations for this potential long-term capital have further amplified market optimism.
Looking back, the Korean stock market had suffered a sharp sell-off caused by leveraged funds closing positions, with the volatility leaving many investors uneasy. Because of this, market divergence has become increasingly apparent: some believe this rally is a reasonable valuation recovery driven by the recovery of storage cycles combined with foreign capital returns, providing a foundation for market continuity; others remain cautious, noting that the concentration of Korean stock stocks is extremely high, with indices closely tied to a few chip leaders, and they are wary that this surge is merely a rapid retaliatory rebound after a sharp drop, and that the risk of further pressure should not be ignored.
Looking at the global linked market, the external environment also provided emotional support. U.S. CPI data met market expectations, U.S. Treasury yields retreated, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.24% overnight, Micron also attracted capital favor, and the overseas semiconductor sector warmed up, providing a favorable external environment for Korean storage companies.
For traders, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have become the most important indicators for watching this round of market development. While short-term sentiment is hot, it's important to distinguish between expectations and reality: Temasek's investment news has yet to materialize, and the pace of memory chip price recovery, changes in global monetary policy, and the direction of foreign capital flows are all core variables determining whether this rebound can go further. In a highly volatile market, it's even more important to remain rational amid the frenzy and be wary of rapid pullbacks caused by the ebb of sentiment.The CPI of 3.4% fully met expectations, so why did $BTC fall back after only a 0.3% increase?
Last night, did your heart race as you stared at the CPI data?
US July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, and core CPI was 2.5%, both accurately meeting expectations.
Inflation is cooling down. The probability of a rate hike in September has decreased. The negative news has disappeared.
You might think: BTC is about to take off, right?
And what happened?
$BTC rebounded from $63,200 to $64,400, up 1.9%—then turned downward, plunging back near $63,500.
Full-day gains? 0.3%。
The Nasdaq rose 0.54%, and gold reversed in a V-shaped rally and gained over 1%.
Bitcoin, as if nothing had happened, just lying flat on the spot.
Are you stunned?
Where did the problem lie?
"Meeting expectations" is itself the biggest issue.
The market never pays for what is "expected."
A month ago, the probability of a rate hike in September was 30%. Everyone was anxious, panicked, and couldn't sleep.
After the CPI was released yesterday, CME data showed that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose to 59.9%.
The probability of a rate hike dropping from 50% to 40%, and the expectation of rate cuts has gone from nothing to none—sounds great, right?
But the problem is: the market had already priced in the phrase "cooling inflation" even before the CPI was released.
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $854 million, the strongest since May.
Smart money has already gone in.
When the data actually came out, everyone discovered—"Oh, just as we guessed"—and then? No "after."
The buying opportunity is gone. Because what needed to be bought was already sold out last week.
The disappearance of negative news does not mean that good news has appeared.
What the market wants is not "no rate hikes." What the market wants is "certainty about rate cuts."
CPI was not given. So BTC didn't move either.
Going deeper: CPI of 3.4% is still 1.4 percentage points short of the Fed's 2% target.
Inflation has cooled down, but it's far from a 'victory.'
Oil prices are still hovering around $100. Housing costs rose 0.1% in July, accounting for two-thirds of the overall increase.
The Fed has no reason to cut rates. Not a single one.
So look at CME data—the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, and the probability of a rate hike is 40.1%.
No rate hikes, but no rate cuts either. This is what is called "higher for longer."
For BTC, this is the most disgusting state.
Interest rate cuts are the engine of a bull market. Not raising rates just means "not dead," not "alive."
Speaking of which, I want to talk about another ongoing event—mining companies are collectively fleeing Bitcoin.
You may not have noticed: Core Scientific's AI data center hosting revenue soared from $8.6 million a year ago to $77.5 million, a year-on-year increase of more than ninefold, and has now replaced Bitcoin mining as the company's largest business line.#特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大, BTC holdings declined
I think Trump's financial report clearly exposes the other side of "listed companies hoarding BTC."
In Q2, the company's net loss reached $238.1 million, with about $190.4 million in unrealized losses from digital assets, related collateralized assets, and securities. In other words, a large portion of operating cash was not actually lost, but rather that the price drop of assets like BTC was directly reflected in the financial statements. (Reuters)
This is also one of the biggest differences between companies holding tokens and individuals holding $BTC long-term:
Companies not only need to judge whether BTC will rise long-term, but also manage cash flow, earnings volatility, and shareholder pressure.
So I actually think it's normal for corporate treasuries to shift from "buying, not selling" to dynamic management. When BTC rises, it can improve asset flexibility, but in a bear market, if you hold too much, company profits and stock prices can be held hostage by BTC.
Previously, the market liked to simply interpret companies buying BTC as good news, but going forward, I will focus more on three things: purchase cost, BTC as a proportion of total assets, and whether the company itself has stable cash flow.
A truly healthy BTC corporate treasury should not rely solely on BTC prices rising to survive.
If more and more companies start proactively adjusting their positions, I don't think this is bearish on BTC; on the contrary, it shows that holding coins is moving from "telling stories" to a real balance sheet management stage.
Long-term holding is a strategy; surviving the full cycle is a true capability.Breaking news! The BTC bottom is approaching, and Ahao directly said: 54,000 is the bottom of this bear market!
I know everyone has been anxious lately. BTC has dropped below 60,000, those holding coins can't sleep, and those with short positions don't know whether to buy. Today, Ahao said this—around $54,000 is the bottom area of this bear market.
It's not just a slap on the head—it's all four dimensions pointing to the same number at once.
---
1. Technical graphics are not mystical; two independent signals both calculate 54,000
There are two bearish patterns on the candlestick chart: one is a 4-hour rounded top and the other is a daily bearish flag. These two charts are like two unrelated fortune tellers, each calculating with their own fingers, and the result is surprisingly consistent—both have downward targets near 54,000.
This is not a coincidence; it's the market structure speaking. When it falls below 60,000, two signals are triggered simultaneously, indicating that bear forces are indeed releasing. But what about after the release is complete? History tells us that when the monthly MACD drops to the zero axis, it is often the bottom area. Over the past decade or so, BTC's bear market bottoms have all appeared near this level.
---
2. On-chain data is calculated as real cash cost accounts
What is on-chain data? It means looking at everyone's real transaction costs—not by drawing lines, but by calculating accounts.
· First note: The average cost to buy all Bitcoins is now between 53,000 and 54,000. At this level, most people start losing money—retail investors panic and want to run, big players are eager to buy in, and after fierce competition, the bottom often forms here.
· Second account: The cost for a miner to mine one Bitcoin is about 55,000–56,000. Miners are the last to see the price fall below cost. Once it approaches this line, hash rate adjusts and selling pressure decreases.
· Third note: Over the past decade, the bottom of the bear market has always been between 1.0 and 0.8 times an indicator called MVRV, and the 1.0x benchmark is exactly 54,000.
The triple cost lines converge around 54,000, which is no coincidence; it is the market's real monetary bottom line.
---
3. Institutional giants are also eyeing 54,000
Don't think institutions are so mysterious—their calculations are similar to ours. Galaxy Digital gives 51,000–54,000, Fidelity estimates 60,000–75,000, Bernstein gives around 60,000. Look, 54,000 is the common bottom line for all these predictions.
In other words, smart money around the world is watching this position. Of course, there are even more pessimistic ones, saying over 40,000, but that would require a financial crisis like 2008, which currently seems highly unlikely.
---
4. The macro environment is shifting, and the toughest times are almost over
The Fed's rate hikes have weighed on BTC for over a year, and now the hikes are nearing their end. The market generally believes there will be no further hikes in September, and once rate hikes officially stop, the heavy burden weighing on BTC will be lifted away. The head of research at Grayscale Fund also publicly stated that as long as rate hikes stop and the economy stabilizes, the bear market is very likely to end.
Think about it: over the past year, due to interest rate hikes, funds kept flowing out of risk assets, with BTC bearing the brunt. Now this logic is reversing, and the soil at the bottom is forming.
---
Finally, Ahao said something heartfelt
I know everyone has been having a tough time lately—those with floating losses, those stuck repeatedly buying at the bottom, those hesitating to act—all are tough.
But you have to see one fact: this round of BTC has only fallen 50% from its peak, whereas previous bear markets have dropped 75%–85%. Why is it less this time? Because there are ETFs, institutions, and big companies continuing below. The bottom is stronger than before.
So Ahao has a bottom line: if BTC really hits 54,000, that's not a time to panic and flee—it's time to bend down and pick up chips.
I've heard this eight hundred times when others fear my greed, but very few actually live up to it. I hope you are one of them.
Ahao finished speaking. Stay steady, we can win.
---
A reminder: investing carries risks. What I'm saying is just my personal opinion and does not constitute trade advice. You make your own decisions and take responsibility.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled Don't rush to take CPI as a positive factor: the door for a September rate hike just hasn't been closed
After the CPI came out, many people's first reaction was: inflation hasn't exploded, the rate hike in September is over, and the crypto sector is about to rebound.
On the contrary, I feel it's still too early to celebrate.
The data hasn't continued to fuel inflation, which is certainly a good thing.
But core inflation is still above target, and the Fed cannot lock in all other options just because of a single "expected" data.
More importantly, the market is on the market.
$BTC Now back near 63,400, with a 24-hour high of 64,496 and a low of 63,309.
After the CPI was implemented, 64,500 failed to hold firm.
This indicates that the market is willing not to fear rate hikes for now, but is not yet willing to pay early for "rate cuts and liquidity recovery."
So the current logic isn't this:
If the CPI hasn't exploded→ go straight bullish.
Instead:
CPI hasn't exploded → The worst-case scenario is postponed; next, we will continue to monitor core inflation, employment, and subsequent policy pricing.
I will focus on two positions:
Only when 64,500 regained ground did the market begin to recognize this figure.
If 63,300 is smashed through again, it means even the CPI buffer can't hold up the market.
Don't misread "nothing worse" as "has improved."
The market is not currently worried about CPI.
It's because the CPI has passed, but buyers still refuse to return.
$BTC $ETH #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled $XAU Although US July CPI growth slowed to 3.4%, cooling market expectations for a rate hike in September, Bitcoin did not rise as a result. The core reasons are:
· Positive news has been digested: The market had partially priced in expectations of a slowdown in CPI, and the "expected" results lacked additional surprises.
· Sentiment remains cautious: the Panic & Greed Index shows the market is in the "fear" zone (27-36 points), with funds waiting for clearer signals $BTC $ETH Today’s Quick News:
U.S. core CPI met expectations, supporting the Fed to stay put; Singapore’s Temasek targets a storage giant in South Korea; DeepSeek and Grok spark a price war
💥 Key Catalysts:
U.S. July CPI met expectations, showing that the drag from energy is narrowing, goods have rebounded, and housing remains soft—indicating no widespread signs of a renewed acceleration. Temasek plans its first direct investment into South Korea’s stock market, targeting Samsung and SK hynix. DeepSeek and Grok both launched flagship models, driving model integration and token adoption by cutting prices.
🔍 Key Logic Shifts:
1️⃣ Expected CPI solidifies the Fed’s wait-and-see: Calm inflation gives the Fed room to hold steady, even though a credibility gap keeps U.S. Treasury yields elevated. What to watch: U.S.-Iran talks, oil prices, and Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August.2️⃣ Sovereign capital backs storage recovery: Temasek’s move into Samsung and SK hynix confirms that the storage sector has bottomed out, helping new-cloud and South Korean storage stocks rebound.
3️⃣ Token price war speeds up adoption: Although the cloud ROI debate is still ongoing, price competition is accelerating model penetration. Sentiment is stabilizing, but volatility remains high.
$SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG $TSM $OKB 在3月5日触及124美元后一路回落，最低跌至65.76美元。时隔五个月，它再次突破100美元关口，现报103.50美元，24小时涨幅8.53%。 从124到65，再到103——这条价格曲线，浓缩了OKB叙事从狂热到冷却再到重燃的全过程。 3月5日的124美元：ICE入股点燃的“消息牛” 3月5日，纽约证券交易所母公司洲际交易所（ICE）宣布以250亿美元估值入股OKX少数股权。消息一出，OKB从约77美元急速拉升，盘中触及124美元高位，24小时振幅超过50%。 那一天的逻辑很清晰： ICE是华尔街的象征，其入股被视为对OKX的顶级信用背书 OKB作为平台代币，直接受益于市场对OKX估值的重估 叠加此前2025年8月销毁后2100万枚的“通缩叙事”，情绪共振推至高潮 124到65：利好出尽，一地鸡毛 但ICE入股的催化剂是一次性消息，不是持续的基本面改善。 利好兑现后，获利盘蜂拥而出。OKB从124美元高位迅速回落，随后一路下行，最低触及65.76美元。 五个月，腰斩过半。 这段下跌的核心原因是：ICE入股改变了市场对OKX的估值，但没有改变OKB的供需结构。 2100万枚的[Blockchain Asset Morning Report | August 13]
BTC $64,050｜ETH $1,905
🔥 Today's Market
BTC has returned to around 64,000.
It just broke below yesterday and pulled back today, indicating that both bulls and bears are reluctant to let go at this level.
But there's a piece of data that's not very good:
On August 12, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $46.79 million, marking two consecutive days of capital outflows.
Before the 65,000 yuan stands and can't go back, I won't chase long.
ETH is actually a bit interesting, performing slightly better than BTC today.
If ETH/BTC continues to strengthen in the future, I would be more willing to watch ETH than I do now.
😈 A mountain stronghold
The top 50 market capitalization remains a local trend today.
The top gainers were PUMP, Canton, and CRV, but overall, the profitability was still average.
There was no widespread stampede during the decline.
⸻
📰 Today is worth paying attention to
(1) US July CPI release
US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations.
The market has not experienced significant volatility so far, and BTC remains near $64,000.
(2) The SEC will discuss its first major crypto rule tomorrow
The SEC has scheduled a public meeting on August 14, with topics related to new crypto regulatory rules that are worth watching.
U.S. crypto regulation has begun to enter a true "rule-setting" phase.
(3) Securitize's first financial report since going public
This BlackRock-affiliated RWA company posted second-quarter revenue of $14.4 million, down 5% year-over-year, with net losses widening to $21.7 million.
It seems the RWA story is big, but doing business isn't that easy.
(4) BTC ETFs saw net outflows for two consecutive days
There was just a round of strong capital inflows earlier, but now it's starting to diverge.
So don't just look at "net inflow" from the previous year,
Whether short-term funds continue to buy is the key to whether the price can continue to rise.
⸻
🧠 My opinion
Today, I remain cautious.
If BTC at 65,000 won't rise, I won't chase.
Instead, they focus on ETH.
Because if the next round really has a market move,
Leaning more towards the following:
BTC stabilizes first, ETH moves first, and knockoffs come out last.
Be patient DYOR🚨 Fed rate hike expectations have fully faded!!
In just one month, market expectations have completely reversed—from concerns over whether to continue rate hikes in September to betting on the next easing cycle.
Data forces a shift: July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, core CPI was 2.5%. Combined with weakening employment data, the probability of the Fed holding steady in September has risen to about 64%.
Core capital logic: The market does not trade "no rate cuts when prices fall," only preemptively "whether future liquidity is loose or not."
Liquidity conduction chain
Fed rate hike expectations are fading
👇
The US dollar is under pressure + US Treasury yields have retreated
👇
Risk appetite is rebounding (BTC, US growth stocks, and gold are seeing capital inflows)
The key logic behind BTC
BTC has never feared "high interest rates," but rather the expectation of "more expensive and longer-lasting" tightening. Now that shackles have been loosened, valuation pressure has been greatly eased.
The following three monitoring indicators
Dollar Index
U.S. Treasury yields
BTC capital flows
If all three shift simultaneously, it would not only mean a "pause in rate hikes in September," but also signal that large funds have started to race ahead of the next easing cycle.
#7月CPI符合预期, will there be another rate hike in September? $BTC $ETH $SOL #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
After reading Musk's speech at the SpaceX all-hands meeting, to be honest, I was a bit shocked.
In most people's fixed impressions, SpaceX is just rockets, Starlink, Starship—a hardcore aerospace company. But Musk made a groundbreaking prediction: in five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's corporate value.
According to his plan, AI revenue by September this year will surpass all other businesses; The goal is to reach 10 gigawatts of computing power by the end of next year, with corresponding annual revenue projections set at $300-500 billion. He also proposed a "ground training and space inference" approach, packaging Starship capacity, Starlink network, and AI computing power into a complete infrastructure.
This is no longer just about spaceflight; it is linking space internet with large model computing power, opening up a whole new imaginative space.
But after calming down, I realized all of this is management's prediction—quite a pipe dream. Market focus is also shifting: moving away from rocket launch frequency and Starlink's cash flow, it's starting to question a reality—can AI business really support current valuations? Massive spending to expand computing power, huge capital expenditures, and various risks in implementation—has the current price already priced in all the positive factors in advance?
The capital market's reaction was also interesting: the related tokens rose in the short term, but the underlying stocks themselves experienced intense market fluctuations and maxed earnings expectations. However, the market repeatedly struggled, and after the rebound, momentum began to weaken.
The ideals are grand, but grand goals do not necessarily mean they are realized. The story is certainly sexy, but the risks cannot be ignored. While watching the drama, we must distinguish between vision and reality.Yesterday, $APR surged a lot. It doubled within a day, and now it looks like it might turn into a monster coin. For such monster coins, my usual strategy is to be bearish without shorting and to buy on dips. However, yesterday I went against my own strategy and shorted this coin, and now I'm stuck in a losing position. It's okay, I believe it will retrace back to my entry point, so I still have a chance to break even. If $APR doubles again at my entry point, I might get liquidated. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. We can see that its contract open interest sharply dropped this morning, while the long-short ratio increased. If we look at the candlestick at that time, we notice a wick spike. This indicates that many large short positions were liquidated at that level. After the wick spike, $APR's price continued to be pushed higher, liquidating some shorts. However, from the contract data trend, the number and quality of shorts liquidated now are far less than those during the wick spike. This suggests that short liquidation at this level now yields very little profit. Let's also look at the contract data over a longer period. We can see that the open interest has been gradually increasing, and the long-short ratio first fell then rose. This indicates that during the uptrend, not only were many shorts accumulated, but also a considerable number of longs. These longs will create some resistance to the price increase. I believe ifLet's start with the conclusion. If you still think of $BICO as an old project for "account abstraction and gas-free users," it's easy to miss the real changes that have happened over the past year. Biconomy is attempting to migrate from the Account Abstraction infrastructure to a higher-level Universal Execution Layer—the Universal On-Chain Execution Layer. Accounts, Gas, cross-chain, DEX routing, Intent, and AI Agent execution—these previously relatively fragmented modules are being repackaged into a unified execution infrastructure. If this is done, the valuation logic of $BICO will change. But I want to put another point first: Biconomy's biggest problem now is no longer whether the product has value, but how much of that value can actually be passed on to $BICO. This determines whether it is just a small-cap old coin easily driven by themes, or an asset with a chance to re-enter the infrastructure valuation system. Why has the market suddenly regained its $BICO recently? As of August 13, $BICO price was around $0.032, with intraday volatility still very volatile. In early August, $BICO even saw a rapid single-day surge of over 70% due to new perpetual contract market entries, but then clearly pulled back. This price action is important. What it tells us is not that "fundamentals suddenly improved by 70%", but ratherNebius surges today by +35% and has already gained +77% in just two weeks.
▌Three factors driving the rise:
➫ Leopold Aschenbrenner, who made $20 billion in one year, cut in at the lowest point—$NBIS was one of his largest holdings.
➫ Nebius just reported revenue of $582.3 million. Riding the explosive growth of its AI cloud business, its revenue surged by 514%, and—backed by an aggressive expansion fueled by more than $40 billion in outstanding orders—it has moved into the ranks of the world’s leading AI compute service providers.
➫ Michael Burry has just disclosed that he increased his short position in Nebius
$NBIS When the CPI data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September plunged from 55% straight to 40%, and US stock futures were in the red—I stared at the screen and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: the market's "big pig" has finally started to pedal, and what you need to do is be the little pig waiting to eat nearby. 📊 Let's start with CPI: Data is solid, rate hikes are uncertain. On August 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July CPI data: Overall CPI month-on-month was +0.1%, but in June it was -0.4% (the first monthly decline in six years); Year-on-year +3.4%, lower than June's 3.5% · Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose +0.2% month-on-month and +2.5% year-on-year, matching the lowest growth rate since March 2021. All data fully matched economists' expectations. Once the data was released, CME FedWatch's probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 55% to 40.1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged soared to 59.9%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell in response. In short: Inflation is cooling down, and the Fed is very likely to remain unchanged in September. 🐷 Smart Pig Model: Why the Best Strategy for Retail Investors Is to "Wait" The smart pig game is one of the most classic cases in game theory: In a pigsty, there is a big pig and a small pig, each trough has a pedal, and a single step causes 10 portions of food to fall out. But pedaling costs the cost of two servings of food. If the big pig steps on it: the big pig eats 6 portions, the little pig eats 4 portions (big pig net profit 4, small pig net profit 4) · If the piglet steps on it: By the time the piglet runs back, the food has already been eaten by the big pig$BTC $ETH July's CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, fully in line with expectations. No surprises or shocks. Both the US S&P and Nasdaq gave positive feedback, but BTC didn't follow at all. It moved a bit lower. What does this mean? It shows that the old logic of macro data is weakening its driving force for Bitcoin. CME's interest rate tool shows the probability of holding rates steady in September jumped from 50.1% to 59.9%, while the probability of a rate hike dropped to 40.1%. Look, the market is clearly leaning dovish, but BTC just isn't buying it Funds are now more focused on the internal structure of crypto, not betting on macro directions. Looking at on-chain data, spot buying has clearly shrunk these days. The inflow rate of major wallets has slowed. Contract positions are still piling up, but the proportion of long positions keeps shrinking. To put it bluntly, there's no new story to tell on the macro level, so funds are returning to a state of stock competition. There's still PPI tonight, but the impact probably won't be significant. The core issue for BTC right now isn't inflation data, but how long has the 65,000 line been holding down? It can't push higher, and the lower limit won't break through Grinding People to the Point of Losing Temper, Macro Economy Returns to Neutrality, Bitcoin Must Find Its Own Direction #July CPI Steadily Landed, September Rate Hike Expectations Cool #财报观察员: AI Infrastructure Earnings Debut One After Another #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% DON'T MISTAKE A QUIET MARKET FOR A LACK OF OPPORTUNITY
Many investors believe crypto has lost momentum because prices remain in a tight range.
But beneath the surface, today's market tells a different story.
Institutional capital—not retail FOMO—is driving the narrative.
Over the past week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $853 million in net inflows. Yet $BTC has not broken out decisively because profit-taking and institutional distribution continue absorbing buying pressure.
At the same time, the latest U.S. CPI came in broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. That has eased pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
This is why I believe the current market is about portfolio positioning, not chasing the next 20% move.
If I were building a long-term portfolio today, my focus would be on:
$BTC — The primary destination for institutional capital and the foundation of any long-term portfolio.
$ETH — Positioned to benefit if ETF inflows remain strong and on-chain activity continues to recover.
$SOL — One of the most active Layer-1 ecosystems, with the potential to outperform if liquidity rotates into large-cap altcoins.
$LINK — A leading infrastructure project as tokenized real-world assets and blockchain adoption continue to expand.
$OKB — Worth monitoring as exchange ecosystems grow through new products, trading activity, and broader utility.
The most important indicators over the coming weeks won't be price alone.
Watch whether ETF inflows remain resilient, whether the Fed maintains a patient stance, and whether liquidity begins rotating from $BTC into high-quality altcoins.
Markets rarely reward those waiting for perfect certainty.
They reward those who prepare before the next major trend becomes obvious.
If you had $100 to invest every month starting today, which crypto asset would receive the largest allocation in your portfolio?
#CPIEasesHikeBets
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
#IBITCutsBTCThreshold
$BTC
$ETH Everyone in the market has suffered from unrealized losses; short-term fluctuations wear down your mindset, but I am bullish on SpaceX in the long term.
Referring to the latest Q2 financial report: Starlink is now a stable cash business, with 12 million subscribers, and continuous growth in corporate and government orders, enabling sustained profit-making. In July, Starship's 13th test flight successfully launched the Starlink V3 satellite, moving from empty testing to payload validation, and the 14th test flight at the end of August involved tower recovery. Combined with the company's hundreds of billions in cash reserves and AI computing power expansion plans, the entire long-term roadmap is clear.
After the financial report was released, the stock price pulled back in the short term, essentially due to market concerns about high capital expenditures. But looking at the long term, Musk's "Starlink cash flow + Starship cost reduction + AI computing power expansion" layout is hard to replicate.
I am willing to endure short-term volatility, bet on this long-term track to gradually realize its value, and remain bullish on SpaceX for the long term $SPCX $SNDK #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 7月CPI公布以后，市场明显松了一口气。 同比3.4%，核心CPI同比2.5%，基本贴着市场预期落地。没有重新加速，也没有出现足以迫使美联储进一步收紧的意外。 于是最直接的一笔交易出现了：9月继续加息的概率下降，短端美债收益率回落，黄金先跌后涨，$BTC则继续在高位震荡。 很多人第一反应会是： 通胀降了，美联储不加息了，利好 $BTC。 这个逻辑没错，但只说了一半。 如果站在交易的角度看，这份CPI最大的意义，并不是告诉我们“牛市要来了”，而是暂时排除了一个最危险的左尾风险——美联储重新转鹰。 换句话说，市场现在得到的不是进攻信号，而是一张继续留在牌桌上的门票。 真正决定 $BTC 下一段趋势的，不是降息两个字，而是三个更重要的东西。 第一个信号，是长端利率能不能真正下来 这可能是目前最容易被忽略的一件事。 市场天天盯着美联储，但对 $BTC 这种久期很长、估值高度依赖流动性的资产来说，10年期美债收益率有时候比联邦基金利率更加重要。 CPI降温之后，2年期收益率容易跌，因为它交易的是美联储未来几次会议的政策路径。 但10年期不一样。 美国财政赤#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 大势：牛市基础仍在，但告别单边猛涨，进入高震荡阶段，指数创新高，内部分化严重。
利好：AI龙头盈利韧性强，企业利润高，经济软着陆预期，市场博弈美联储降息。
风险：整体估值偏高，美债收益率高位扰动；一旦降息延后，容易出现快速回调；多数中小股跑输指数。
方向思路：优先算力、云龙头、高股息防御板块；规避纯题材概念股，不追高，分批布局，普通投资者优先宽基指数。
BTC比特币
盘面：在64000‑65000美元区间震荡，近期明显跑输美股，美股创新高，BTC没有同步跟涨。
驱动：高度绑定美联储流动性；ETF资金、巨鲸囤币提供底部支撑；本轮美股上涨由AI企业盈利驱动，对加密资产溢出效应有限。最大共同变量：美联储利率、美债收益率，降息预期是两者共同的利好，高利率是共同压制。
当前特征：美股是企业盈利驱动；BTC更多靠流动性与资金情绪驱动，本轮美股结构性行情没有充分传导到加密市场。
风险共振：如果美股出现大幅回调，BTC大概率同步承压。$BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX 盘中暴涨超7%突破布林上轨，1小时图RSI冲高至80以上。价格强行撕开高位波动区间，把短线筹码直接推向超买边缘。向上能否站稳1140关口决定突破有效性，回踩若跌穿1120支撑则意味着多头动能出尽。一旦下破1090防线，高位价格结构将彻底失效，后续需观察均线承接力与供给扩产预期的博弈。
#Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温 #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%$HYPE HYPE Holds at $56, Fundamentals Turn Positive
Recent positive developments for Hyperliquid:
· Earnings: Hyperion DeFi Q2 net profit hit **$31M**, doubling QoQ. HYPE holdings grew from $71M to $133M.
· Institutional accumulation: Bitwise keeps buying HYPE, with ETF net inflows over $5M this week — no sell-offs.
· Regulatory upside: Lobbying CFTC to launch perpetual futures in the US, which could unlock a massive market.
#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
最近AI基建这一批财报扎堆出来，看下来心情挺复杂的。
好多公司营收数据看着真的很漂亮，Lumentum、CoreWeave还有超微电脑营收涨幅都冲到九成以上，Nebius更夸张，二季度营收直接同比暴涨454%，Coherent业绩指引也超预期，思科全年营收利润也都是双位数往上走。
看着数据一片红火，但市场好像已经不单纯为高增长买单了。
有个很现实的点现在摆在眼前：大家砸出去的资本开支实在太高，Nebius单单一个季度资本开支就干到57亿美元。哪怕业绩超预期，Coherent盘后照样跌了8%。
能赚营收是一回事，能不能把高额扩产，最后转化成实打实、可持续的利润，这才是现在市场最关心的事。
接下来就看应用材料的财报交卷，半导体设备的需求能不能稳住。
感觉AI基建板块的容错空间已经在收缩，不再是只要增长就能涨的阶段。后面估值怎么定价，利润会是最重要的考核标准。
你们怎么看这一波AI基建财报，还会继续看好这条线吗？