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South Korea's KOSPI rose for three consecutive days
South Korea's KOSPI Index Surges Violently 23%: This Time, Can the Storage "Cycle Curse" Be Broken?
South Korea's KOSPI index rose for three consecutive days, rebounding about 23% from its July 30 low, directly entering a technical bull market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the gains, and the Korea Exchange even triggered circuit breakers due to the large gains.
What exactly is the market trading? Three "obvious" positive signs
The first clear card: Temasek wants to "bottom-fish."
Singapore's sovereign wealth fund plans to invest directly in Samsung and SK Hynix, with a frighteningly straightforward reason—"memory chips in the AI supply chain are still undervalued." This is Temasek's first direct investment in the Korean stock market, and the signal is more important than the money itself.
The second clear card: the largest shareholder return in history.
SK Hynix is preparing a return plan worth about 100 trillion won (about 71 billion USD), and Samsung may follow, with total potential exceeding 200 trillion won. Compared to last year's 14.3 trillion won, that's nearly a sevenfold increase. In plain terms: they've earned too much cash, so instead of lying low, it's better to put it back into shareholders' pockets.
The third clear card: the supply-demand gap has no end.
Micron executives publicly stated that storage supply and demand in 2027 will be tighter than in 2026, "The primary constraint is DRAM itself, not power or factories." JPMorgan Chase raised its storage market size forecast for 2026-2028 by 4%-8%, forecasting the global storage market to reach $1.44 trillion by 2027.
This round of rebound trading is a triple resonance of "fundamentals remain firm + shareholders willing to share money + endorsement from foreign investors." But the cyclical nature of memory chips has not disappeared; they have only been temporarily overshadowed by AI demand. A forward P/E of 3.6 is indeed cheap, but cheapness has never been a reason to rise; poor expectations are
$KR200 $SKHY $SKHYNIX In the high-thermal night vision device, the space computing fortress claimed to build 10 million kilowatts of power in low Earth orbit is currently just a floating artificial heat source.
Lurking in the damp, cold, hidden pit, I'm used to filtering out all market noise before pulling the trigger. Musk's tactical blueprint to his team is extremely ambitious: by the end of 2027, deploy a 10GW computing cluster in orbit, rely on Starship and Starlink infrastructure combining "ground training and space reasoning," and within five years, this business will consume 99% of the value of the entire tactical fortress and leverage $300 billion to $500 billion in annual cash flow. Once this internal presentation was released, bullish funds on the market instantly became restless, and $XSPY linked targets were loaded with bullets, as if the computing power gold mine in space could be mined tomorrow.
But a true ace gunner only sees ballistic curves, air pressure, and wind speed correction.
In the crosshair of the optical sight, this so-called "space computing power matrix" is filled with extremely high ballistic deflection rates. 10GW of orbital computing power is not just empty talk; it means thousands of Starship launches carrying transport payloads, cooling dead points in extreme vacuum environments, and the devastating blows of high-energy cosmic radiation to micron-scale chips. This is a typical "ultra-long-range yaw target"—the grand figures predicted by management are certainly tempting, but in the eyes of ballistics, these are just illusory parameters that have not been tested by real gunfire.
The current $XSPY price premium is nothing more than a phantom of a kill imagined by market watchers under anxiety. Astronomical capital expenditures and hellish construction risks are not reasonably priced in current price discounts. At this juncture, blindly following the crowd and pulling the trigger means prematurely exposing your disguise and having your shoulder blades shattered by the raging recoil, with no chance of winning.
My hunting rule is extremely cold: if there is no absolute dominating profit-loss ratio, I will never put my index finger on the trigger.
Let those impatient skirmishers desperately burn through ammo. I'll keep lurking in the shadows, tightly locking the $XSPY's bottom support band with a precision scale, quietly waiting for a crack when project delivery delays or market liquidity hits a cold snap.
The bullet only ejects when the target's flaws fully align at the crosshair intersection of the scope.When the market applauds "triple-digit growth," all I hear is the ticking of the chess clock—not applause, but a countdown.
On the mid-game board, Lumentum, CoreWeave, and Supermicro each delivered over 90% revenue increases, like three horses leaping across a river boundary, stepping on each other's e5, c4, and f4 squares. Outsiders look at the lively chess board, counting, "I have one more horse, he is missing one elephant," but true grandmasters never count such accounts. What I might ask is: are these pawns backed by pawn chains? Do their jumps sacrifice center control? The key is—if your opponent uses a low-value pawn to "trade" in the next turn, will you choose to preserve pieces or maintain tempo?
Nebius's quarterly capital expenditure is $5.7 billion. This is a classic "rear wing's gambit" temptation: if you send the queen to the enemy's frontline, you can get unlimited moves and offensive fantasies, but if you miss a step, the opponent's bishop can come through A4 to dig into your castle. $5.7 billion isn't an operating cost; it's a game declaration of "abandoning half a piece for momentum"—the problem is, your opponent has already seen your gap. Coherent beat the guidance last quarter but dropped eight percentage points in after-hours trading. This isn't sentiment, but a common "double attack" in chess moves: when a company faces both "growth" and "cash-burning speed," even if the data looks good, cracks have already appeared in the chess structure. That one-eighth drop was like a "post-trade" move, stripping away the surface offensive completely.
Cisco's double-digit growth is more like a steady "Italian opening" three-foot formation. It doesn't pursue a fatal blow, but ensures every move leaves enough space for the king to settle in the endgame. But this is a chessboard of intelligent computing power; everyone can finish the entire layout within an hour, so who has the patience to maintain classical structures? Applied Materials is about to make its move, and all players are holding their breath, watching whether it will be a "king's wing attack" or a "rear wing exchange"—the real suspense is not how much it earned this round, but whether it can establish a sustainable "pawn chain structure" behind billions in capital expenditure. Once this move is judged as "lone advancing," the entire formation's formation will collapse at the slightest touch.
What I see in these numbers isn't lines, but the players' expression management. When an opponent only remembers to hide their trembling by drinking water ten minutes after selling, you can tell how many gaps are in their offensive and defensive plan. The brightest revenue numbers in the market are often just "discarded pieces" set by the opponent—making you think you've gotten a bargain, but in reality, you're forcing your king into the trap of the middle lane.
Every quarter's financial report is a review of moves within the move limit. A true chess master never cares about how powerful a single pawn is, but whether these pieces can still form a deadly game after fifty moves. Now, a bitter scent lingers above the board—it's not the smoke of victory, but the prelude to losing due to excessive spending and burning.
At the moment you are shogunated, no one will remember how many beautiful chess pieces you have eaten before #AIInfraEarningsWatch BTC Community Temperature Update: 0.65x is just attention, not buying
On August 13th at 11:00, OKX Onchain OS recorded 40 mentions of BTC in one hour, including 35 times x and 5 news articles.
Compared to the 24-hour hourly average, this round is 0.65 times faster, which is considered a "clear slowdown"; The tone is 38% bullish and 20% bearish. There's no need to force the same conclusion between the two lines: the buzz answer is how many people are talking, and the tone response text leans toward which side. Neither can directly replace transactions or cash flow.
If the next round continues with speed, news sources, and actual market transactions, confidence in judgment will be further boosted; If it quickly returns to the mean, this change will resemble short-window noise.Gold prices edged lower in Asian trading on Thursday, with XAU/USD retreating to around $4,400. Gold had previously maintained a strong performance at elevated levels, but new geopolitical risks are prompting the market to reassess energy prices and the inflation outlook, leading to some profit-taking by short-term investors. However, gold’s downside remains limited by shifting expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy; the fact that U.S. inflation data for July did not show a renewed acceleration has reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further in September. The gold market currently faces a rather unique fundamental environment. On the one hand, ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, have increased risks to global energy supplies, which could push up crude oil prices and create new inflationary pressures; on the other hand, U.S. inflation data itself is showing signs of cooling, leading to a significant decline in market bets on near-term Fed rate hikes. This means that gold is simultaneously influenced by two opposing forces: “geopolitical risks” acting as a positive factor and “energy inflation” acting as a negative factor. #XAUUSD #CPIOKX and Gate.io launched perpetual contracts for Xiaomi, Pop Mart, and RIOT on the same day. Binance simultaneously launched a stock token display portal.
Three exchanges, same day, same direction.
The reason for looking at ETH is very specific: over 90% of tokenized equity protocols run on Ethereum→ More assets are on-chain, so on-chain trading volume rises, and ETH consumption rises accordingly. A positive cycle in the mechanism.
Direction: Bullish on ETH. Stock listings are accelerating, with each new protocol consuming more ETH.
$ETHUSDCThis trend is no longer a "roller coaster"; it's like the drop tower machine didn't have a seatbelt.
What happened? $BEAT went from $2.29 to $0.95 in less than 24 hours
I reviewed the timeline:
· August 12: BEAT jumped from $1.90 to $2.29 on OKX, rising over 9% in 24 hours and leading the top 100 by market cap
· Now: it has fallen directly back to the $0.85-$0.95 range, plunging 50%-60% in a single day, with liquidity under severe pressure
Some analysts reviewed this wave of decline, calling it a typical "distribution + panic selling" structure:
🎈 During a pull-up, buying interest is weak, but the volume of shipments is huge
🎈 Liquidity pools (especially Pancake) became thinner during the crash, with severe slippage
🎈 Those chasing higher prices are all stuck between $1.90 and $2.29
Previously, those bullish signals like whales withdrawing from Gate and turning positive on Market Delta were now just smokescreens to lure long sellers.
Technicals: $0.85-$0.95 is the "last line of defense"
Looking at the market data, several key positions are very clear:
· Current price: $0.95, down more than 50% in 24 hours
· Support below: $0.75-$0.80, which is the first true bottom range given by analysts. If it breaks cleanly, $0.60-$0.65 will soon become the target
· Resistance above: $1.10-$1.20, with a large amount of trapped positions accumulating here. If the rebound reaches this level, there will be selling pressure
The RSI has already fallen into the oversold zone in the short term, but the daily chart is still bleeding. Oversold does not mean stopping the decline—before panic trading is cleared, bottom-fishing is like catching a flying knife.
Is there a fundamental problem with the project?
Despite the technical collapse, the fundamentals haven't changed—BEAT is still the token of the Audiera ecosystem (rhythm game + AI agency + music creation), and the project team has recently boasted "weekly revenue of 2.8 million USDT, 19.42 million BEAT burned."
But some people directly expose that this income is fake: users pay with BEAT, the project team converts it into dollars at BEAT's overestimated price, then claims the income is burned. It's not external cash flow buying tokens from the market; the higher the price, the better the income—burning is just marketing; unlocking is the real deal.
Moreover, on August 1, 21.25 million BEAT tokens were unlocked (worth about $81.66 million at the time). The token unlock is a real increase in supply, while what is burned is the data the project team has played.
My opinion
BEAT fell from $3.5 to $0.85, pulled up to $2.29, and then crashed back to $0.95—the same coin completed the full script of "crash→ doubling→ halved" within two weeks.
I said last time the essence of this coin: a high-volatility game product, not a value investment product. Poor liquidity, tricky tokenomics, obvious whale control.
If you must do it:
✨ Bottoming now? The risk is extremely high. The $0.75-$0.80 hasn't reached yet, and analysts believe that's the real bottom range
✨ Want to grab a rebound? Wait until volume rises to reclaim $1.10 before talking. Right now, it's unclear whether $0.95 is the bottom or halfway up
✨ The safest bet: not touching this vote is better than anything else
From $2.29 to now $0.95, a 58% floating loss. If you're on this stock and now asking "should you cut or not?", I can only say— this drop is panic buying + unlocking selling pressure + liquidity exhaustion triple kill. Bottom-fishing and holding on are unsafe.
💰 Today's Profit and Loss: I still haven't made a move on BEAT. From $2.29 to $0.95, this kind of move is simply not something retail investors can play. Share in the comments: Did you get buried in chasing the high this time? 👇
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard The market is treating softer rate expectations as a cushion, not a catalyst. BTC holding near $63.4K while ETH and SOL also drift lower suggests macro relief is being offset by unresolved geopolitical pressure and a persistent haven bid in gold.
My bias is defensive: until crypto shows it can absorb the Hormuz risk premium and rally on easier-policy expectations, this looks more like consolidation than the start of a durable risk-on move.
Not advice, just analysis.No matter how beautifully the rebar is tied, before concrete is poured, it's just a visual effect. The SEC's August 14 meeting announcement was an emergency on-site structural adjustment before the legislative blueprint was stamped: the CLARITY Act design was still under review and being used for laying out the lines, while regulators had already brought safety helmets to lay the lines.
I saw several key load-bearing nodes: certification exemptions for investment contract tokens, construction methods for the fundraising safe harbor—these are like setting up temporary pillars for the site before the white paper is finalized. Those of us in the industry know that construction floors can provide emergency relief, but cannot support permanent structures. What the market is waiting for is the "Structural Design General Statement," but what is waiting is the "On-site Negotiation Record"—the compliance path now looks like a fast-track assembled from prefabricated components, but unfortunately, the cement at the joints hasn't dried yet.
People often ask: If the foundation hasn't been accepted, can the wall be built on top? This August, they're trying to answer this question. Allowing the exemption to be raised starts first, which means building the wall first and then signing off on the structural engineer's opinion; Safe Harbor, on the other hand, is more like 'temporary support not demolished'—theoretically it can provide a safety net, but over time, no one can say whether this shear wall was a design feature or a construction mistake for reinforcement.
The project team's current mood is just like a contractor who has obtained the "foundation preliminary construction permit" but hasn't yet received the full seismic special approval. You stare at that limited fundraising release slip, while the full-professional blueprints for this building behind you still quietly lie in the archives. To put it nicely, it's phased construction; to put it bluntly, it's buried municipal pipelines first, then plans where to place the building.
Targets like XUSAR are currently serving as the tower crane on site—everyone is watching which materials it is lifting, but no one checks whether the crane's foundation weight counterweights and anchors are being constructed according to the drawings. Policy determines the construction survey reports for the next three years, while the price is just the final version of the supervision meeting every evening.
Concrete hardening takes time. Each round of fine-tuning of regulatory caliber is a slump adjustment, deviating from the design mix ratio for the sake of meeting performance standards. This "dynamic design" is recognized in the industry, but settlement observation and load testing are necessary as a safety net. The current question is: Can temporary measures and the formal main structure ultimately be combined on the same as-built drawing?
Compliance paths can reserve pipelines in the blueprint, but you can't set the structural elevation just months early by entering the site. I don't look at the tower crane's ascent speed, only at the bedrock burial depth #secactsasclaritywaitsThere was a detail in today's market that was quite interesting
I just glanced at the US stock market, and honestly, it's kind of interesting.
The S&P rose about 0.2%, QQQ was about the same, and the 10-year yield dropped from 4.70% to around 4.64%—this seems like a pretty normal scenario of "interest rate declines and tech rebounds," right?
But if you only focus on the index, you're missing what truly matters.
The two real strongest stocks were CoreWeave, which at one point dropped nearly 19%, and SMCI dropped about 14%. Moreover, they barely pulled back at the open, which is a crucial detail. Ordinary AI concept rebounds usually start with a surge and then slowly decline; today's moves were clearly different.
What does that mean? The market rewards companies that can produce real products.
CoreWeave's order backlog is close to $100 billion—take a closer look at that figure. Revenue exceeds expectations, losses are narrowing—that's what the market recognizes. But honestly, I've always been conflicted about this kind of stock—it's strong, it's strong, but would you dare to hold it overnight?
Its problem is obvious: capital expenditures are shockingly high, financing costs are obvious, customer concentration is high, and free cash flow is consistently negative. If you say these stocks are worth a certain price, the logic holds; If you say they're not, you can still find ten reasons.
So my trading strategy is simple: if the VWAP pulls back and volume increases, you can take a look; if it falls below VWAP and the rebound loses volume, don't follow it. Don't chase the second wave if it's a quick rally—this is a lesson, not an analysis.
SMCI's logic is slightly different.
This time, the market isn't paying for revenue—honestly, everyone has fully priced in on servers—the key is that profit margins have improved. But if you look at last quarter's cash flow, the net operating cash outflow for the quarter was $6.6 billion, and this hole is no joke.
So while it has risen, a question mark lingers in my mind: how much inventory has been suppressed? Can the improvement in gross margin continue?
Same trading discipline: wait for the first pullback, and if it falls back to the opening range and is even weaker than QQQ, then it's a script for financial report gap filling, not a trend start, so don't overthink it.
In the next few hours, look at three things:
First, whether CRWV and SMCI can hold their high levels from the morning, and more importantly, whether there are smaller players in semiconductors, servers, and power supply catching up. So far today, the diffusion effect has been very average, and VRT and others have basically remained untouched.
Second, can QQQ stand up on its own when its returns fall? If only two individual stocks are supporting the scene, then the quality of this rebound should be compromised.
Third, can the 10-year yield hold at 4.64%? Honestly, if it spikes above 4.70% before tomorrow's PPI comes out, all this will be sold back today.
CPI didn't cause any surprise today, so the market breathed a sigh of relief, but it was only a relief. The demand for AI computing power was once again confirmed by the earnings report, which is real; But the index was just so-so; no one repriced all AI assets because of one CRWV.
The market has become very discerning, and I think that's a good thing.
About tomorrow's PPI.
I've fallen into this trap before—just because CPI is good, I think PPI will be good too, but the data came out in a different direction, and my positions the night before were instantly suffocated. So no matter what I do today, I most likely won't hold overnight positions.
Remember one thing: today's market rewards "verified," not "possible." These are two completely different narratives.
Some friends even asked me if I was optimistic about CRWV's future. Honestly, with this high capital expenditure and high leverage business model, I can't confidently say long-term certainty. If there is short-term momentum, then follow the short-term rules; Don't fool yourself into thinking you're investing in value while doing it.
The most likely place in this market where people lose money isn't that they don't know who's strong, but because they can't help but chase the strong and find there's no volume left, leaving the price hanging on the mountaintop.
Today's mood was good, but not good enough to close my eyes and rush in.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled After the CLARITY extension, the SEC wants to first make up for the regulatory rules. This may seem good in the short term, but in the long run, it's actually quite awkward.
The industry is waiting for Congress to set a set of hard rules: which assets belong to the SEC, which to the CFTC, how exchanges register, and how stablecoins and tokenized stocks to operate. But the bill gets stuck between political divisions, bank interests, and official coin ethics, and is stuck on the move. The SEC has no choice but to step in and give the market a temporary direction.
The problem is, temporary directions are not law.
Today, the SEC can issue explanations, grant exemptions, and open registration channels; tomorrow, with a new chairperson, a court ruling, or a congressional version, the rules might be rewritten. Project teams fear not strict regulation but spending big on compliance, only to lose the floor.
I think this is a case of "stopping the bleeding but not curing the disease" for the U.S. crypto market. It can give institutions some temporary courage to move, but real big money will wait for Congress to nail down the boundaries.
In a regulatory vacuum, the most expensive cost is called uncertainty.
#CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule supplementation Russian Central Bank: Retail investors can trade $BTC $ETH $USDT
Russia is opening a door to cryptocurrency, but the gap is narrow.
According to an article by bits.media, the recent draft consultation published by the Russian Central Bank states that ordinary investors will only be able to trade three crypto assets for the time being: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT.
Within a single broker, crypto exchange, or asset management institution, the annual purchase limit per person cannot exceed 300,000 rubles, and a risk test must be passed before trading.
Some trading restrictions are seen here: the market capitalization must be large enough, the average daily trading volume must be high enough, and there must be at least five years of price history in overseas markets.
However, professional investors face relatively relaxed restrictions; they can trade other cryptocurrencies without purchase limits but must complete compliance requirements.
This plan does not represent a full liberalization of crypto trading in Russia but aims to gradually bring funds that were previously in the gray area into licensed institutions and regulated accounts.
The related system is expected to be implemented from September 1, and the Moscow Exchange has also begun preparing its own crypto asset custody institution.
More notably, the Russian Central Bank ultimately included USDT, a US dollar stablecoin issued by an American company, alongside BTC and ETH in the initial list, indicating that regulators prioritize liquidity scale when faced with demand.
This time, Russia has not fully accepted the crypto community because, for most altcoins, the door to the compliant market remains firmly closed!As of the morning of August 13, 2026, BTC was trading near $63,676, but after being halved from a high of $126,000 this year, it has been bottoming out in the $60,000–67,000 range; ETH is trading around $1,891, with the 52-week range between $1,506 and $4,955, and currently hovering near the yearly lows. Against this backdrop, two pieces of news worth watching together: DTCC's tokenized securities pilot completed its first batch of real production transactions on July 15, with over 30 institutions including the New York Stock Exchange, BlackRock, and JPMorgan participating, and will officially launch in October; Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick set a target of $200 by 2030 for Chainlink this week, with the report titled "Owning the Rails."
RWA has shifted from narrative to infrastructure, completely tearing apart the pricing logic of $BTC and $ETH.
BTC's current role is clear: it serves as reserve collateral for the on-chain world. It doesn't generate cash flow or participate in settlements. Wall Street's logic for buying it is like buying gold—to counter fiat currency oversupply and serve as a non-sovereign reserve on its balance sheet. So BTC's price is driven by two variables: macro liquidity and institutional allocation. The current price of 64,000 is driven by repeated Fed rate cut expectations and slowing ETF inflows. Its "reserve premium" market has been priced in for over two years, with no new stories to tell.
ETH is different. The underlying layer of the DTCC pilot runs on the Canton Network and private Besu chains, but the public settlement layer, oracles, and cross-chain interoperability needed for Wall Street's on-chain upgrades are basically anchored in the Ethereum ecosystem. Standard Chartered's $200 logic for LINK is essentially for ETH: on-chain tokenized assets will rise from about $340 billion now to $4 trillion by the end of 2028, with settlement fee income expanding and token prices following fees. ETH's pricing anchor should be "on-chain GDP," not market sentiment.
The problem is, this "track value" currently cannot be transmitted to ETH's price. ETH at $1,880 has dropped 37% this year, while on-chain RWA scale is hitting new highs during the same period—this divergence is the core market contradiction. The reason is simple: L2s have diverted economic activity, mainnet gas fee revenue is diluted, and the token's ability to capture value has been weakened by the architecture itself. The more Wall Street uses it, the more ETH is not necessarily more valuable. This may be the first structural dilemma in crypto history where "good fundamentals but token prices don't rise."
So stop looking at these two assets using the same macro framework. BTC is a transaction between interest rates and dollars, depending on the Fed's mood; ETH is a transaction involving adoption and fee capture mechanisms, depending on whether it can solve the L2 value return problem. The division of labor between the reserve and settlement layers is taking shape, but the market is only paying for the reserve layer—this balance is either recovered by ETH or proven "the track is worthless." The two answers mean completely different terms to positions.$CORE Honestly, this move is pretty surreal.
The price of coins dropped 99% from the peak, and I didn't sell a single token—my losses were so bad I couldn't even be bothered to look.
But after reviewing the project team's actions over the past six months, it really hasn't just given up:
SatPay public beta, BTC liquid staking, dual staking increases, and repurchase fee changes.
Even the London Stock Exchange has listed BTC staking ETPs based on Core, and Custody platforms like BitGo and Copper have also been incorporated.
To be honest, the team is "working."
From a forced mining narrative to BTCFi revenue routes, in August they will also adjust the gas economy to accelerate buybacks.
But despite the actual investment, the token price is still hovering around 0.019, and liquidity is weak.
For someone like me who is deeply invested hundreds of times, selling is unacceptable, since ecosystem data (over 300 million staked, TVL recovery) is indeed rising;
Hold onto it, worried about another year of sideways trading.
Those who have completely fallen understand that feeling best:
You know the project team is working, but the red text in your account is still glaring.
Not a single coin was sold—not faith, just numbness.
I also want to see for myself whether this "revenue era" can really translate into current coin prices.
⚠️ CORE's current price is about 0.019 USDT, down over 99% from its 2023 high. In the short term, Maple's $150 million $BTC dispute remains unresolved; buy the dip and ask DYOR.In an internal meeting, Musk set a long-term goal that AI would account for the vast majority of SpaceX's value, and predicted that in the short term, computing power revenue would surpass its infrastructure business. This prediction of reshaping business logic once again reinforces the grand narrative of global computing power infrastructure expansion. If real computing power orders are delivered as scheduled, the decentralized computing power sector will receive structural positive support; If the high cash rush phase is accompanied by large-scale unlocking and release, market sentiment may quickly cool and turn into a pullback. Once the pulse hype fades, the final trajectory will still depend on the actual progress of business revenue realization.
#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebounded over 22% in ten days, #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC showing divergence in corporate finances【BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (46-2)】
Long-term holders' deep cut indicator on exchanges is here 🫴
This bear market bottom, the indicator remains steadily underwater 😏
┌── 🐼 On-Chain Data Details ──┐
The indicator at the bottom of the chart shows the realized profit and loss ratio of LTHs sending to exchanges
Indicator logic: stripping out the original cost of long-term holders (>155 days), it only compares the "pure profit" and "pure loss" amounts within the chips they transfer to exchanges
🔴 Bull Market Top Escape Warning: When the ratio shows exponential surge, it means almost all transfers by veterans to exchanges are "pure profits." Large-scale sell-offs driven by huge floating gains are typical top-chip distribution characteristics
🟢 Bear Market Bottom Signal: When the ratio falls below 1.0 and shrinks close to 0, it means "pure loss" dominates absolutely. This indicates even die-hard fans who have endured long cycles can't withstand the drop and are forced to deeply cut losses on exchanges. Complete panic and surrender often signal that a solid macro bottom has been established
Note: This article refers to ratio <1.0 as "underwater" Bitcoin has fluctuated between $61,000 and $65,000 since last month. According to on-chain data, over 2.4 million BTC have been accumulated, accounting for 12% of circulating supply. Of these, around $63,000, 1 million BTC have accumulated, accounting for 5.2% of circulating supply, with tokens concentrated at a rare level in history.
Historical comparison: From June to November 2022, after the major bull market of 2021, the market plunged in the first half of the year, and from mid-year to November, there was a half-year adjustment.
Later, from $21,480 to $15,476, a massive accumulation of tokens appeared on-chain.
In July, AI trading collectively deleveraged, with the Nasdaq 100 down 7% and the S&P 500 barely moving. But the Nasdaq is still at a high level for now, and an avalanche could happen at any time in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's weekly downtrend isn't over—beware of the final drop!#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
Musk made a major statement in an internal meeting: in the next four to five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's total value, with aerospace and Starlink becoming supporting infrastructure. He also predicts that AI revenue in September will surpass all of Rocket Starlink's business revenue, with full bets on computing power expansion.
Market optimism logic
1. A complete shift in corporate positioning: transforming from an aerospace company into an AI computing power giant. Big capital continues to pour into the AI infrastructure track, reinforcing the narrative of the global AI computing power cycle.
2. The further upgrade of the computing power arms race will help the entire AI computing power industry chain regain sentiment, and the crypto AI and decentralized computing power sectors will see thematic catalysts.
3. The concept of Starlink + space computing power opens up imagination, bringing long-term story expectations to computing power-related concepts.
You can't blindly follow trends and hype votes
1. This is a long-term goal, part of management's vision, not a performance already realized. In the short term, it is still in the stage of large-scale cash burning to expand computing power, with high uncertainty.
2. Intensified competition in the AI sector, with giants pouring money wildly, squeezing the survival space of small and medium-sized computing power projects in the future. Not all AI-related tokens will benefit.
3. SpaceX still has large unlocks hanging overhead, and its stock price itself is highly volatile. Most sentiment transmission to the crypto market is impulse-driven, and its sustainability is questionable.
In my view, this is yet another reinforcement of grand narratives, which is positive for the sentiment of AI computing power themes, but being driven solely by story does not mean the market is directly bullish.
In practice, don't chase news pulses; focus on observing the actual orders and revenue realizations in the computing power sector, pay attention to pullbacks, and avoid small coins that are speculating at high levels. Last night, the US July CPI was released, basically in line with expectations, not causing much surprise to the market.
CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, core CPI 2.5%, month-over-month rose 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, all basically meeting expectations. After the data release, US stocks were slightly stronger, but BTC reacted rather mildly, once dipping below around $64,000.
I think the biggest significance of this CPI for the crypto market is not to directly trigger a surge, but rather:
At least for now, it does not give the Federal Reserve a reason to continue a hawkish stance.
The previous nonfarm payrolls have clearly cooled down, and now inflation has not accelerated again, easing market concerns about September policy.
But the problem is, CPI only "met expectations," not significantly below expectations, so the rate cut trade has not been fully ignited yet.
For BTC, what’s more critical going forward is liquidity and Federal Reserve expectations.
If employment continues to weaken and inflation continues to slowly decline, the market will start to bet again on rate cuts, and the funding environment for BTC, ETH, and high-beta altcoins will significantly improve.
My judgment:
Short term: oscillating with a slight strength bias, but not yet the time to start a one-sided rally.
Medium term: if subsequent data continues to support rate cut expectations, risk assets still have upward potential.
So now I prefer to wait for BTC to break out, rather than FOMO just because of a CPI that met expectations.
The worst of the macro environment may be behind us, but the real liquidity turning point still requires more data confirmation. #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days
KOSPI rebounded more than 22% from its low in ten days, entering a technical bull market, led by Samsung and SK Hynix.
Catalyst: AI computing power demand supports storage expectations, with the market awaiting large-scale buyback and dividend plans from two companies, coupled with gradual foreign capital inflows.
Support conditions: U.S. inflation data cooling, easing interest rate hike concerns, and rebounding risk appetite.
Risk Points: The index heavily relies on the storage giants, and Korean stocks have always been highly volatile. After a rapid short-term rebound, there is pressure to realize profits.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. Did you notice? The last time the bottom of a bear market appeared, it was panic selling and short selling, which caused the funding rate to be extremely negative. This bear market hasn't happened this time, and market sentiment is less panicked. Many people think it's already bottomed. If it really hit the bottom, with so many going long, the main players don't need to bring so many to make money; they definitely need to wash the stock. If there's another big pullback, I'll buy spot stocks to avoid missing out. If the chart shows a sudden drop in funding rates, I'll go all-in on spot $BTC $ETH $SOL 1.2 Short-term and long-term perspectives on investment profitability
You hold 10% of the convenience store shares, and at year-end you receive a 20,000 yuan dividend. You think your investment income for the year is 20,000
You're at home making tea when a friend comes to visit. He tells you he heard someone wants to transfer 10% of the convenience store's shares at a price of 220,000. At this point, you realize that although you received a 20,000 yuan dividend, the "stock price" dropped by 30,000. That means the investment return for the year was 10,000 yuan, and you fall into deep thought.
At that moment, a friend received a call. Another friend said the seller felt the price was too low and didn't want to sell
Then you find your investment returns go from losing 10,000 to making 20,000. In those few minutes, you do nothing, but because someone else plans to sell and then cancels, your investment returns change dramatically
"Did I really make a profit or a loss?" you fall into deep thought again
What does other people's trading prices have to do with your own investment returns?
If you need money today and must sell, and the buyer is only willing to pay 220,000, then there's no doubt that after closing, you'll lose 10,000 yuan on your investment for the year
But if you think the price is really too low, and after a few years buyers are willing to offer 250,000 yuan or even more, then your investment is a win
If you have to sell in the short term, you can only accept others' offers
If you're not in a rush to cash out and plan to invest long-term, you can wait for a good price quoted by the market—not only will you earn dividends, but you can also earn a bit on the stock price.
The short-term profit and loss depend on market quotes, while the long-term profit and loss depend on intrinsic value and the moment of the last sale.
To be continued...
#投资 #股票 #理财 #投资入门 #财务自由Open interest is approaching its October 2025 peak, yet DOGE's price has already dropped by 72%—leverage is accumulating, and direction is disappearing
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📊 1. Real-time Price Overview: $0.07, struggling near the three-year low
As of August 13, Dogecoin (DOGE) was quoted at $0.070310 on Binance in the UK, down 2.52% in 24 hours, with an intraday fluctuation range of 0.068890 to $0.072250. The Investing.com index was at $0.070117, down 2.77%. CoinGecko data shows DOGE was at $0.06922, down 4.90% in 24 hours.
· Market capitalization: approximately $11.99 billion (ranked 10th)
· 24-hour trading volume: approximately $470 million
· 52-week range: $0.06785 to $0.30628
· Year-to-date: down 40.17%
· 1-year drop: as high as 71.28%
⚠️ Data discrepancy reminder: CoinGlass shows DOGE at around $0.0982, which is significantly different from mainstream CEX data, possibly due to different data sources or contract types. It is recommended to refer to mainstream data such as Binance and Yingwei Financial.
🔥 2. Market Review: Rally and then pull back, $0.07 gained and then lost
DOGE surged intraday to a high of $0.073 today, and rose 0.81% within 24 hours. However, bulls failed to hold their gains, and the price continued to fall, falling below the $0.07 mark and hitting a low of $0.06889. As of press time, DOGE was fluctuating between $0.069 and $0.070, with the overall trend still showing weakness and recovery.
📉 3. Core Contradiction: Surge in Open Interest, Yet Prices "Lie Flat"
The most noteworthy data: DOGE futures open interest has risen to about $1.21 billion, and by token count (about 171.8 billion DOGE), it approaches the October 2025 level of 177.8 billion DOGE. At that time, the price was about $0.25, but now DOGE has dropped to $0.07—the same leverage scale, but the price has fallen by 72%.
TokenPost data shows that DOGE derivatives trading volume surged 95.24% to $1.39 billion in the past 24 hours, while open interest grew 10% to $1.27 billion. Trading volume and open interest grew in tandem, indicating a large influx of new leveraged positions.
Speculative positions have returned to October 2025 levels, while spot prices have plunged 70%—the market is using increasingly high leverage to compete for an increasingly narrow range. The expansion of open interest not only means increased market participation, but also means that once prices fluctuate sharply, the risk of chain forced liquidations is rising sharply.
📈 4. Technical Aspects: Under Comprehensive Pressure
Yingwei Financial Composite Technical rating is "Strong Sell," with technical indicators and moving averages "Sell." Investing.com also gives a "Sell" rating.
Key resistances: $0.0708-0.0723 (today's high area) → $0.075 (recovered as a short-term stabilization signal) → $0.08-0.09 (mid-term watershed)
Key support: $0.0689 (today's low, bullish lifeline) → $0.06785 (52-week low) → $0.065 (downside target after breakdown)
💎 5. Summary
DOGE is currently trading in a weak oscillating range of $0.0689-0.0723. CPI data met expectations and should have benefited risk assets, but DOGE briefly surged to $0.073 before quickly retreating, with poor sustain in the rebound.
Bullish signal: In CoinGecko user voting, 71% are bullish on DOGE's outlook; DOGE has been trading sideways around $0.07 for weeks, with volatility compressed to the extreme and Bollinger Bands tightening to the limit—the direction is about to be triggered at any moment.
Bear pressure: Open interest has surged to October 2025 levels, but prices have already dropped 72%—leverage is accumulating, but buying is retreating. Once prices break below the $0.0689 support, chain liquidations could push DOGE toward 0.065 or even lower.
$DOGE Solana nearly faced a "final shutdown," with 28.8% of staking nodes going offline—just 4.5 percentage points away from disaster
---
📊 1. Real-time Price Overview: Fluctuating around $76
As of August 13, Solana (SOL) quotes vary slightly across platforms. Yingwei Financial data shows SOL at $75.72, up 0.82% in 24 hours; CoinLab data shows SOL at $75.48, down 1.00%; Other platforms quoted SOL at about $76.17, down 0.34%.
The 24-hour fluctuation range is $74.57 to $77.33, with a market capitalization of about $42.9–44.5 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of about $1.26 billion. BTC's market share has risen to 58.54%, with funds still concentrating on Bitcoin. The CMC Fear and Greed Index stands at 36, still in the "fear" range.
🔥 2. Today's Core Event: 28.83% of Staking Nodes Go Offline, Nearly Triggering a "Final Shutdown"
On August 13, the Solana network experienced a major event that nearly led to a final halt in transactions.
Event Details: An internal internet routing error within hosting provider Teraswitch caused about 90 validator nodes across 12 locations worldwide to go offline simultaneously. The issue was identified within about 10 minutes, but some validators took around 33 minutes to recover.
Key data: At the peak of the event, 28.83% of staked SOL entered a "non-transaction" state, just 4.51 percentage points away from the 33.34% threshold for triggering finality stop—meaning about 4.5% less staked and the Solana network would lose transaction finality entirely.
Lesson from the event: Solana Foundation Chairman Lily Liu previously emphasized that "a fully on-chain architecture is more valuable for DeFi and Solana's future," but this incident exposed the risk of validator nodes being overly concentrated on a single custodian (Teraswitch). About 118.89 million SOL (more than a quarter of total staking) are concentrated in a single autonomous system.
Market reaction: SOL's price only slightly fell by about 1%, and the market did not immediately react significantly. However, the issue of excessive concentration of validator nodes may prompt the community to reassess the degree of network decentralization. If similar failures or more serious incidents occur again in the future, SOL's price could face even greater downward pressure.
📋 3. Other Market Dynamics
📈 USDC newly minted 250 million coins
USDC Treasury minted 250 million USDC on the Solana network, injecting a large amount of stablecoin liquidity into the Solana ecosystem, which usually means institutions or market makers are deploying funds on the Solana chain.
⚙️ The Agave 4.2 upgrade is about to be launched
Solana plans to roll out Agave 4.2 during the week of August 17, aiming to reduce block time from about 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds, further compress the long-term target to 200 milliseconds, and continuously optimize network performance.
🏦 MoneyGram expanded to Solana
International remittance giant MoneyGram has expanded its crypto-cash two-way exchange service "Ramps" into the Solana ecosystem.
📉 4. Technical Aspects and Key Positions
Current Pattern: After finding support at $74.57, SOL rebounded to near $76, still in a volatile recovery phase after a rally and pullback. Moving averages have converged highly—EMA5 around $76.00, EMA10 around $75.92, EMA30 around $75.97, showing extremely balanced bullish and bearish forces. MACD is attempting to form a positive crossover in the negative area. The daily technical rating remains "Sell"—13 Sell, 9 Neutral, 3 Buy.
Key resistances: $76.0-76.6 (previously concentrated volatility resistance zone) → $77.3-$77.4 (24-hour high; a break would break bearish structure) → $78.5-$80.0 (target after breaking 77.4)
Key support: $75.0-$75.3 (stage support; a break would open downside space); → $74.5-$74.6 (today's low); → $73.0-74.0 (target after falling below 74.5)
💎 5. Summary
Solana is currently fluctuating between $75 and $77. Today's biggest event was a validator node routing failure, causing 28.83% of staked SOL to go offline, with the network just 4.51 percentage points away from final shutdown. Although the price was not significantly affected, the problem of validator nodes being concentrated in a single custodian was fully exposed.
$77.3–$77.4 marks the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears—if volume increases and the area holds, it could open up space toward $78.5–$80; if resistance persists and it falls below $75.0, it could push back to $74.5 or even $73–$74.
The core contradiction lies in: 250 million new USDC mints, the upcoming Agave 4.2 upgrade, MoneyGram's expansion into the Solana ecosystem—these fundamental positive factors—but also the tug-of-war between high concentration of validator nodes, technical 'sell' ratings, and continued capital concentrating on Bitcoin.
$SOL #现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains
Speaking of BTC, the recent market situation has really left me at a loss.
Let's start with the market: today (August 13) BTC was basically fluctuating within the pitifully narrow range of 63,400 to 63,680. The current price hovered around 63,500, down 0.36% in 24 hours. It fell 1.24% over seven days, and 27.5% year-to-date. From the January high of 93,000, it dropped 31%. To put it plainly—it fell for more than half a year, then traded sideways for almost two months.
Technically, there's really nothing to get excited about. On the daily chart, the ADX is only 8.6, showing no trend at all. The 4-hour ADX at 33.4 shows some trend, but what about the direction? No one knows which direction to go. The EMA7 has already crossed below the EMA30 to form a death cross, locking in the short-term rebound potential. The DIF and DEA on the MACD are both hovering below the zero axis without turning positive; this is a false rebound, not a real reversal. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 63 and 907 is resistance; the lower band depends on whether it can hold.
65,000 above is a strong resistance zone, below 63,200 to 63,500 is short-term support, and below 62,500 is the most important recent bottom. Simply put, moving averages are topping above and Bollinger bottoming is a typical consolidation pattern. Don't bet on one-sided before the direction is clear.
On-chain data is more fragmented.
On one hand, whales are accumulating shares like crazy. The number of wallets holding over 10,000 BTC has risen to 90, a six-month high. Over the past 60 days, these whale addresses have accumulated holdings of 46,420 BTC. One mysterious address transferred 6,494 BTC in 45 transactions within three weeks. Whales are buying, and buying very aggressively.
But on the other hand, prices just don't rise. Why?
CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju put it bluntly—Bitcoin's rally lacks spot demand support. Open interest is increasing, but on-chain spot demand is still in the net selling zone. Price increases are mainly driven by funds in the futures market, while the spot market hasn't caught up. Ki Young Ju's exact words are: "A sustainable rally requires both spot and contract demand to coexist. The contract-driven rally in April quickly disappeared without spot demand."
There's another signal worth pondering—USDT's market cap has shrunk by $4 billion in the past two months. CryptoQuant says this is one of the most severe declines in USDT's market cap in recent years. Interestingly, the worst USDT contractions in history mostly occur in the late stages of bear markets, not during the most intense sell-offs. This may indicate that selling pressure is nearing its limit.
The ETF side is also quite fragmented. From August 3 to 11, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for eight consecutive days, totaling over $1 billion. In just the first week of August, $854 million flowed in, nearly five times the total inflows for the entire month of July. BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed 70% to 81%.
But even so, prices still couldn't rise. Why? The sellers are fierce too. On August 11, ETFs saw $144 million in outflows, ending a five-day inflow streak. Off-exchange selling from big players like miners and Strategy basically offset ETF buying. Institutions are buying, big players are selling, both sides are opposed, and the price is stuck here.
There was little support from the macro perspective. US July CPI fell to 3.4%, in line with expectations. The Fed voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged. Market expectations for a pause in rate hikes in September rose to 60%. But while CPI is good, it's still far from the Fed's 2% target. The US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is still escalating, with oil prices at $83.71 per barrel and gold soaring to $4,487. Traditional safe-haven assets are diverting money from the crypto market.
So what's the essence of the current situation? Whales are accumulating shares, ETFs are buying, buying, but retail investors are retreating, spot demand can't keep up, and the macro environment is weak. Glassnode describes the current market as "priced at nothing, yet reacting to everything." Translated into plain language—prices haven't moved, but any news can make them shake a bit.
Sellers are already showing signs of fatigue near 64,000. Glassnode says 54.6% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, with average holders basically breaking even—a situation that historically often coincides with the end of a correction. But Glassnode has made it clear—the bottom has not yet been confirmed.
Whether it can truly strengthen depends on whether it can cleanly break through 65,000. If it rises, the logic of recovery holds; If rejected, then keep grinding.
Finally, let me share some personal feelings. This kind of sideways movement is really exhausting, even more painful than a crash. At least a crash is satisfying; sideways trading means you stare at the candlestick until your eyes sore, and it just keeps moving back and forth within those few hundred dollars. My current strategy is simple—control your hands, don't add to your position, don't cut losses, and so on. Going long or short at this level feels like dancing on the edge of a knife; it's better to just watch the show with your spot stock. Anyway, the first rule of self-cultivation for retail investors is: don't move when you don't understand.
What do you all think about this sideways move? Do you think 65,000 can break through, or do you need to push it further to 62,000? Talk in the comments section and let me see if there are any brothers who've been so worn-out like me that they've lost their temper.
$BTC The difference between 2026 and 2022 is:
Because 2025 will be different from 2017 and 2021.
Below is ISM reaching 58, triggering the BTC.dominance crash. We haven't seen this since 2021—hence the start of altcoin season.
However
You'll see ISM continue to soar, as productivity is soaring and balance sheet expansion is happening.
Everyone is waiting for the "four-year cycle" where Bitcoin rises first, then ETH, then altcoins... But now, because altcoins are expected to bottom out relative to Bitcoin in 2025, when $BTC suddenly rebounds, altcoins may immediately wake up, and when ISM data continues to rise, BTC.d will eventually collapse......
This means altcoins may reach a frenzy in 2027/2028; last year was not a true top, nor is it a true bottom...... The next top will be later, and the next bottom will be more painful.The market is sending a very different message this morning: Inflation has cooled, but crypto buyers still aren't showing enough aggression. $BTC has slipped toward the $63K area despite the latest U.S. CPI coming in broadly as expected. That is important because a favorable macro print normally gives risk assets more room to breathe. Instead, Bitcoin remains defensive. So where is the money moving? 🧭 1. BTC IS STILL THE LIQUIDITY GATEKEEPER $BTC remains trapped in a fragile range around the loCPI positive news misses the moment, Bitcoin hovers at $63,500—triple negative pressure — why does the rebound always feel "weak"?
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📊 1. Real-time Price Overview: $63,500, moving sideways for 6 weeks
As of August 13, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $63,666 on the Bitfinex platform, down 0.22% in 24 hours. The UK's financial index was at $63,728, down 0.05%, with intraday fluctuations ranging from $63,371 to $63,738. CoinMarketCap data shows BTC trading in the $63,000-$63,400 range.
· Market capitalization: approximately $1.28 trillion
· 24-hour trading volume: approximately $22.78 billion
· 52-week range: $57,877 to $126,110
· Year-to-Date: Down 27.38%
· 1-year decline: 48.16%
Bitcoin has been trading sideways in the $62,000-$65,000 range for over six weeks, with volatility continuously compressed to yearly lows. The South Korean market premium is -0.31%, with the Fear and Greed Index at 37, still in the "fear" range.
🔥 2. CPI meets expectations, but Bitcoin "falls instead of rising"
July CPI was 3.4% year-on-year, and core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, fully in line with expectations. Normally, as inflation slows → rate cut expectations heat up→ risk assets rise. But Bitcoin has shown almost no positive reaction.
The reason is: the market has never priced in the "data itself," but rather on the "difference between data and expectations." When the data fully meets expectations, it means the market has already priced in the positive news in advance, with no new incremental information driving the price breakout. After the CPI data was released, Bitcoin briefly touched $64,500 before quickly retreating, then fell to around $63,000.
🏛️ 3. The US-Iran deadlock is a greater source of suppression
More noteworthy than the CPI is the geopolitical stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran conflict over the strait continues to escalate, Iran rejects Trump's statement of "control" over the strait, and rhetoric from both sides keeps escalating. Oil prices climbed to $83.71 per barrel, and gold climbed to $4,487 per ounce.
Rising oil prices→ rising inflation expectations→ the Fed making it difficult to cut rates→ putting pressure on risk assets—this transmission chain continues to suppress Bitcoin's upside potential. Traditional safe-haven assets (gold, crude oil) continue to attract capital inflows, while Bitcoin's positioning as a "risk asset" is being reinforced by the market.
📉 4. ETF funds turned to net outflows
On August 12, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $61.1 million, BlackRock IBIT saw a net outflow of $14.3 million, and Fidelity FBTC had a net outflow of $46.8 million. The previous eight consecutive trading days of net inflows exceeding $1 billion were broken. ETF funds shifted from "continuous inflows" to "net outflows," which is the most direct evidence of weakening short-term buying pressure.
📈 5. Technical Aspects: Comprehensive Pressure
Bitcoin is currently close to the 50-day moving average ($64,122), with the 100-day moving average at $66,682 above and the 200-day moving average at $72,017. Prices remain below all medium- and long-term moving averages, and the overall trend has not yet significantly strengthened.
· The daily RSI is around 49.6, in a neutral range
· The ADX is only 8.6, with no trend at the daily level
· The 1-hour MA has turned short
· The multi-period moving averages are arranged in an EMA5<EMA10<EMA20<120 EMA120, indicating a bearish structure intact
Analysts point out that the current market is more like a sideways consolidation than a clear reversal. For Bitcoin to reopen upside, it first needs to reclaim the $66,000-$67,000 range, followed by breaking through and stabilizing the 200-day moving average near $72,000. Before that, any rebound can only be characterized as a weak recovery.
💎 6. Summary
Bitcoin is currently in a weak oscillating range of $63,000-$64,500. The CPI data fully met expectations but failed to drive a price breakout, confirming that the market has already priced in the positive news early. The US-Iran Strait of Strait of Hormuz continues to push oil prices higher, with ETF funds shifting from eight consecutive days of net inflows to a single-day net outflow of $61.1 million, with technical pressure across the board—three layers of negative factors are collectively suppressing Bitcoin's upside potential.
$64,500-65,000 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears—a high-volume breakout and stabilization in this area could open up recovery space toward $66,000-67,000; If resistance persists and it falls below $63,000, it could pull back to $62,000 or even $58,000.
$BTC #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
I just finished checking out the financial report call on the Super Micro computer, and my head was still a bit dizzy.
This week, the AI infrastructure sector has truly delivered a cluster of results. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) released its Q4 2026 fiscal year results after the market closed last night, with revenue surging 93% year-on-year to $11.1 billion. Most outrageously, the gross margin soared to 17.6%, beating the previous guidance range of 8.2%-8.4%. Liang Jianhou said during the conference call that new orders for the quarter exceeded $60 billion, with a record high backlog. The stock price surged over 10% after hours.
But interestingly—revenue was actually a bit below the market expectation of $11.6 billion. The market is in this state now: a slight revenue miss, and it gets a bad look, but the explosive gross margin has pulled sentiment back again. You can only say that this stock is trading now, based on profit margin logic, not net revenue scale.
Looking at neighboring Broadcom, AI semiconductor revenue surged 143% year-on-year to $10.8 billion, with AI revenue guidance for fiscal year 2027 surpassing $100 billion. AMD's data center revenue doubled to $6.7 billion, but still fell 9% after hours. CoreWeave's revenue is expected to double, but losses widened by 339%.
Notice? The market's attitude toward AI infrastructure has changed. Previously, it was "as long as your revenue goes up," now it's "how much real money you earned, how much you burned, how much remains." Doubling revenue isn't enough—you have to look at profit margins; Orders worth hundreds of billions aren't enough—you have to look at cash flow.
What does this have to do with our crypto world? AI sector coins have recently become highly polarized—only a few leading players like TAO and RNDR have capital grouping, while the rest of the AI altcoins have generally weakened. After WLD's hype faded, it fluctuated and declined steadily. To put it bluntly, traditional AI stocks have started to settle accounts, and the AI concept in crypto can't rely solely on storytelling to support valuations; it needs real substance.
NVIDIA will release its Q2 results for fiscal year 2026 on August 26, and that's the real highlight. Investment banks expect revenue to be $94-95 billion. We'll see how the market reacts—whether it'll continue to "fight back with good earnings" or embrace AI narratives again.
Have you been eyeing any coins in the AI sector lately? Or do you think this round of traditional AI stocks' earnings has nothing to do with us? Share your thoughts in the comments.
This isn't investment advice, just sharing 😂Rewind to a month ago, while traders are still anxiously debating whether another rate hike storm will erupt in September.
At this moment, the script had already turned to a new page.
📊 The latest data shows that the probability of the market betting on "holding stead" in September has soared to around 64%.
Supporting this shift is the July CPI year-on-year drop to 3.4%, core CPI recording 2.5%, combined with persistent labor market signals—the underlying logic behind the Fed's continued tightening is beginning to collapse.
[Key Points]
This is the real winning or losing move in the market.
Because the market's pricing has never been about "whether interest rates are cut now," but rather:
👉 Will forward macro liquidity become marginally loose?
[Logic of Derivation]
Once expectations of the rate hike cycle ending are confirmed, a chain reaction will immediately unfold:
The US dollar index came under pressure 📉
⬇️
US Treasury yields declined
⬇️
Global capital risk appetite is recovering
⬇️
Risk assets such as BTC, Nasdaq growth stocks, and gold have regained capital favor
[Key Emphasis]
BTC is especially noteworthy.
What it truly fears is not a high interest rate environment, but rather the "Higher for Longer" repricing brought about by sudden expectations.
Now, this tightening curse is loosening.
[Operation Recommendations]
Therefore, the key focus for market monitoring going forward should not be limited to just a few words from the Fed, but rather to closely monitor three major indicators:
US dollar trend + US Treasury yield + net BTC inflows.
[Closing Elevation]
If these three exhibit resonance and direction,
What we are about to face is far more than just a "pause in rate hikes in September."
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
$BTC $ETH $BEAT Fidelity is about to upgrade its FETH fund (nearly $900 million) by allowing ETH staking and quarterly cash distributions. Specifically: The fund may stake up to 100% of its $ETH holdings It will retain 85% of staking rewards, with 15% going to the sponsor, custodians, and node operators Remaining rewards after fund expenses will be distributed in cash to investors every quarter In my view, this is a quite positive signal because: The $ETH ETF will finally generate real yield, instead of jus#波动雷达: Currency Movement Observation Overall, the market long-short ratio is 1.04, total net liquidation across the network is $60.3M**, and trading volume for most coins has not significantly increased, indicating a market of existing capital competition. 📈 Gain Observation $CYS +34.1% | Open interest slightly increased, 24-hour strong rally, OI $100.3M, funding rate normal $SPCX +10.0% | Open interest barely moved, large open interest at $1.3B, funding rate -0.022% $VIRTUAL +10.4% | AI sector, slight increase in interest, stable market $KORU +8.6% | 4-hour open interest pulled back, price rises, indicating reduced position shakeout and upward $BTW +5.2% |4-hour open interest plunges 13.7%, reduction drives up shakeout characteristics$DRAM +4.4% | Storage sector, slight reduction rises $AVAX +3.4% | Slight increase in positions, market remains stable $ZEC +2.5% | Overall volatility is minimal 📉, weak stocks $BEAT -13.8% | Price plunges, holding changes little, existing selling pressure released $FIL -4.4% | Slight increase in position decline, long-short ratio 0.84, bears dominate $MSFT -2.1% | US stock tokens, Slight increase in positions and downward 📝 movement. Market summary: 1. Many rising coins have seen price increases and lower open interest, which is a type of take-profit shakeout for long positions. This is not a large-scale influx of new funds, so chasing at the high point is not cost-effective. 2. The scale of liquidations is not largeThe macro picture has changed again. The latest U.S. CPI report did not deliver a major downside surprise, but it was soft enough to reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve. July CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. The bigger signal came from rate expectations. Markets have cut the probability of a September Fed hike from roughly 54% to 40% following the inflation release. That is a meaningful shift — especially after July's surprisiExpectations for rate hikes have decreased
Why can't the previous drops just go back up?
I really don't quite understand this logic
Earlier, the market was trading frantically, fueling expectations of rate hikes
Funds are safe havens
Risk assets are being smashed
$ETH Pullback all the way from a high point
As a result, the market has now started to cool down
Federal Reserve pressure is easing
Logically,
The assets that fell the hardest before should be the first to rebound
But reality is different
The news has softened
But the price hasn't been fully fixed
Could this decline not be caused by interest rate hikes at all?
Or is it true?
Is the rate hike just a reason Lao Zhuang found to sell off?
——
Let's review this market trend
Actually, it's quite obvious
The news was just the trigger
What truly drives prices is the behavior of money
When prices rise, everyone talks about expectations for rate cuts
When prices fall, people talk about inflation risks
The market will always find an explanation
But what truly determines the direction
It's always about whether new funds are entering the market
During previous upward cycles, a large amount of profit-taking accumulated
Once market sentiment weakens,
The first reaction of funds is not to buy the dip
Instead, they make the money first
So even if the negative news disappears,
Nor does it mean someone will be willing to bring it back immediately
——
$ETH This position is quite awkward right now
Fluctuating repeatedly around 1880
This indicates that both bulls and bears are waiting for a new catalyst
Focus on the 1850 area below
If we hold this place,
This indicates that the previous sell-off was more about emotional release
There was also a chance to retest the 1920–1950 period
But if 1850 falls,
The market may continue to seek areas with lower liquidity
After all, after the high-leverage liquidation,
Prices often don't immediately return to square one
It takes time to rebuild confidence
——
$BTC Same here
Many people are hoping that CPI will rise immediately after easing
But the problem with Da Bing right now isn't news
Instead, it is pressure trapped above
A large amount of trading chips has accumulated around 65,000
Every rebound has funds choosing to reduce their holdings
Looking short-term
63,000 is an important support level
64,000–64,500 is the rebound resistance
If there is no trading volume to cooperate,
It's easy for the market to continue in a consolidating and exhausting market
——
$SPACX Recently, market attention has also been high
The core logic still revolves around space commercialization and future growth expectations
The biggest feature of these assets is:
Growth depends on imagination
Declines depend on valuation
When market risk appetite declines
Funds will prioritize withdrawing from these high-expectation stocks
Even if the long-term story remains unchanged
Short-term funds also choose to wait
So the point isn't whether the story still exists
It's about whether new capital is willing to offer a higher valuation
——
$BEAT This small-cap stock is more obvious
After the previous sharp drop
The market needs time to digest the selling pressure
Many people think it's all over when they see the rebound
But the real bottom
It doesn't just happen after one drop
Instead, there are fewer and fewer listings for sale
Buying is slowly returning
If trading volume does not increase significantly,
A rebound can easily turn into a short-term capital rescue
The key is to see if it can hold back near $1
If funds flow back into the flow
Only then will they have a chance to challenge the initial pressure zone
——
The biggest question now is:
This wave of macro expectations was a misjudgment
Or is it funds using news to complete a high-level distribution?
I feel like both
The news only gave the market a reason
The real correction comes from taking profits after the previous rapid rally
So don't expect a CPI to bring everything back to a peak
The market is not that simple
When prices rise, capital is needed
When prices drop, all you need is an excuse
Next, it depends on whether new buyers enter the market
This wave isn't over yet
But there is no need to panic blindly
Take your time to consider the direction of your funds
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% The most awkward part is that the ETF outflowed $61.1 million, yet the $BTC barely dropped.
Normally, when this kind of news comes out, many people would first think about "taking it down," but today it has been stalling between 63,310 and 64,500, as if deliberately pretending to be calm.
I just finished working overtime and came home. Doudou was squatting by the keyboard watching me cut the K-line lines. Even cats were 😅 calmer than I was
Honestly, I feel more cautious about this situation where "bad news comes in but prices won't drop quickly."
Not because it's ridiculously strong, but because contract trading is now 8.9 times higher than spot trading, which looks very crowded.
This kind of position is the most annoying—some are pulling out on the spot side, while the contract side is still holding on. Whoever lets go first will lose face.
So I'm not bullish here.
I tend to wait and see, even a bit biased toward shortness, but not the kind of bearish that wants to chase shorts immediately.
If it can't break up later, I feel this fierce and grueling trend will eventually break someone's guard 💀
Do you really see ETF outflows as a real pressure, or do you think the market has already priced it in?
The market is changing; what works today might be wrong tomorrow $BTC #BTCU.S. official data showed that the U.S. July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, in line with expectations and lower than June's 3.5%; Core CPI year-on-year was 2.5%, also in line with expectations but lower than the previous value of 2.6%. Both inflation indicators cooled simultaneously, continuing the decline from 4.2% in May. For the market, the data did not surprise any new inflation increases.
However, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% inflation target and has remained above the target for the ninth consecutive month. In other words, the main theme of this data is a slowdown in price momentum, not that inflationary pressures have disappeared; The year-on-year decline has improved the short-term inflation narrative, but there is still a gap to policy targets.
The Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is currently at 3.75%, while the policy rates for April, June, and July have all remained at 3.75%. With inflation in line with expectations and continuing to cool, the need for the Fed to continue raising interest rates has diminished; However, CPI remains above the 2% target, and policy may remain cautious about an early shift to rate cuts. #今晚CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?Base链DEX接入B20代币化股票并启用PropAMM机制，核心矛盾在于新做市算法能否在缺乏大资金深度验证下维持低滑点成交。
BaiBai以PropAMM与聚合器结合的形式在Base链上线，并预告接入由Coinbase背书、1:1资产映射的B20代币化股票交易轨道。资金端的博弈重点由此从常规代币兑换，转移至新标准股票轨道的流动性定价效率。
决定资金流向的因素排序依次为：PropAMM做市算法对交易滑点的控制能力、B20标准底层资产的1:1映射验证透明度、以及聚合器路由的实际成交速度。
上行路径推演：若小额测试显示的实际滑点持续优于传统AMM，且B20标准的背书状态获得资金认可，链上股票交易将吸引套利资金提供买方深度。该路径需观察挂单厚度与测试单成交速度。若大额挂单发生严重价格偏移，该上行逻辑即刻失效。
下行路径推演：若做市商因波动风险收紧PropAMM的流动性供给，或B20代币在跨资产对价时出现价差无法平抑的情况，买卖差价将显著拉大并抑制成交量。该路径需观察跨池价差与滑点损失率。若资金池深度在无补贴状态下逆势增长，下行剧本宣告失效。
当前做市模式与代币化股票标准均处于初期阶段，小额订单的滑点表现与背书链条的实测反馈是评估流动性真实度的核心依据。
未来7天最重要的观察变量为小额探针交易的滑点曲线，以及B20代币化股票轨道的首批挂单深度变化。
#贝莱德IBIT换购门槛降至100万美元 #Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%$ETH Second Brother is currently the top choice for institutional entry, but the younger generation is quickly catching up. If he doesn't improve himself, he might be surpassed 😏
[Latest Ethereum (ETH) Market Highlights and Technical Analysis]
Market Status: Following the broader market in a narrow range of $1,850 to $1,920, the overall trend remains highly correlated with Bitcoin.
1. Key technical checkpoints
• Major resistance levels: $1,920 - $1,950 (Dense technical moving average resistance; a volume breakout is needed to break the current bottoming pattern)
• Strong resistance level: $2,000 (Psychological and technical round-digit levels; holding firm is essential to establish a major reversal signal)
• Key support levels: $1,850 - $1,870 (a short-term strong support area that has been tested multiple times recently)
• Defending lower boundary: $1,800 (key defense baseline; breaching it may trigger a drop to $1,720)
2. Fundamentals and chip movements
• On-chain Data: Ethereum L2 network transaction volume continues to grow, and total staking remains stable, providing some support from long-term lock-up effects.
• Capital Flows: Spot ETFs and institutional capital outflows slowed after the CPI data was released, and the market is awaiting clear short-term volume support.
3. Strategic Recommendations
• Short-term traders: You can buy low and sell high within the range between $1,850 and $1,920, and test the waters with light positions near $1,850 and strictly set stop-losses; If the volume breaks through $1,920, you can follow the trend to buy long.
• Medium- to Long-Term Investors: It is recommended to continue the Phased Regular Amount Assessment (DCA) strategy to reduce leverage ratios to cope with future market volatility. Why is the first big rebound in a bear market the easiest to mistake for the return of a bull market?
After going through several cycles, I've found that what really causes people to lose big money is often not the crash itself, but the first big bullish candle after the crash.
When prices keep falling, everyone is cautious; but once BTC quickly rebounds and altcoins broadly rise, sentiment immediately shifts from despair to "the bull market is back soon."
I've fallen for this trap before: afraid to buy at the bottom, then fearing missing out after a 20% rise, chasing in when people in the group start showing profits, only to realize later that the rally was not new money entering, but short covering, oversold rebounds, and trapped holders trying to save themselves.
A true trend reversal is not just about fast gains; it also depends on whether the pullback can hold, whether volume can sustain, and whether spot funds can take over. Bear market rebounds are often sharp and fierce because chips are light and shorts are many; but once it reaches the early trapped zones, sell orders flood out like a tide.
What the market exploits most is people's desire to "regain what was lost": fearing zero when prices fall, and fearing missing the next bull market when prices rise.
So when I see a big bullish candle now, my first question is not "how much more can it rise," but "who is buying, and how long can the buying last."
Remember: rebounds awaken greed, but only trend reversals can preserve profits. 加密 KOL 的变现，正在从“拉新赚佣金”走向“用交易结果换信任”。 过去一段时间，返佣和收费策略确实有过一扇不小的窗口。尤其在 2024—2025 年间，部分平台注册门槛较低，用户甚至可以通过注销账户后重新绑定邀请码，给早期参与者留下了套利空间。那时的市场像一条刚开张的街，摊位不多，客人却不少，谁先支起遮阳伞，谁就可能先做成生意。 但加密行业从来不缺聪明人。随着头部博主纷纷入场，返佣赛道迅速变得拥挤，用户争夺加剧，平台规则也开始收紧。2025 年 9 月，币安进一步调整规则：同一身份下的账户无法再更换邀请码，返佣套利空间因此明显收缩。部分 KOL 转向其他交易所，包括一些返佣比例较高的小型平台，但新的问题也随之而来：平台监控趋严，群聊禁言等处罚并不罕见。以前是流量找人，如今更像是规则拿着放大镜找流量。 从第一性原理看，KOL 的收入最终依赖三件事：用户是否愿意跟随，用户是否能获得持续体验，以及平台是否允许这种关系长期存在。返佣解决的是“用户从哪里来”，收费解决的是“内容怎么卖”，而带单试图进一步回答：“用户为什么愿意留下？” 因此，在当前的内容生态中，带单被一些 KOL 视为变现效率Why did the "data meet expectations" actually drop?
(1) Boots landing = all the good news is being released. If the CPI doesn't provide a new direction, those funds betting on "accelerating rate cuts" will take profits as soon as the data comes out. As expected, assets that have already risen are the "reason to sell."
(2) Gold rests, coins weaken, stocks are stable. After gold hits a two-month high, it rests as soon as the boots land; Crypto is already weak, and in-line CPI can't save it; US stocks are most stable under a soft-landing narrative.
(3) The crypto structure hasn't changed; small-cap coins are the most fragile. AAVE, ADA, XRP have fallen again, once again proving that small-cap coins don't just "follow the market when it's stable"; they get dumped first in a weak market.
Focus: #7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September have cooled
• BTC holding at 63,000 is expected to stabilize; if it breaks, it will continue to weaken;
• Gold: Hold 4,382 for high-level consolidation; if broken, look for pullback.
In short: "meeting expectations" is actually an excuse to take profits for gold that has already risen and crypto that has weakened. Now that we're entering a data vacuum, let's see who stabilizes first. Don't catch the knife in a weak market—patience is worth more than prediction.
⚠️ CPI data verified by BLS, current prices come from real-time terminals; This is not investment advice and does not constitute buy or sell orders.
Sources:
• BLS July CPI
— Guanlan · Yunxiang Research InstituteI think many people analyze this issue without getting to the root of it; most of the time, they're just talking about themselves without truly seeing the essence behind it.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
@okx
Although it started relatively late in the US stock market, the xStocks product launched about three weeks ago, and its trading volume on X Layer already accounts for over 80% of all on-chain transaction volumes, showing strong momentum.
And
@binance
bStocks had an on-chain trading volume of about $7.4 billion in July alone, accounting for roughly 85% of the total Tokenized Equity DEX trading volume that month, directly making it the most actively traded tokenized stock product on-chain at the time.
The logic behind these two is completely different.
I think it's actually the same!
Because a large portion of people who actively trade crypto assets like xStocks and bStocks are already crypto users.
So at this stage in the crypto stock field, platforms not only compete on products, asset quantities, liquidity, and trading experience, but also on how many active crypto trading users they have and how strong they are, further converting these users into US stock trading users.
Relatively speaking, the latter is more important.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Binance and OKX's early advantages were very evident.
They already have a first-tier crypto user base and trading traffic, naturally possessing a terrifying ability to migrate existing users.
When a new asset class emerges, they don't need to start from scratch to educate or acquire users; they just need to find ways to migrate users already trading crypto on the platform into the new asset class.
Moreover, Binance and OKX have another advantage: besides exchange user bonuses, they also benefit from their own chain ecosystem dividends.
OKX directs users to trade xStocks, and trading volume, users, and liquidity can ultimately continue to accumulate on X Layer;
Binance's launch of bStocks can also bring trading volume, assets, and users to BNB Chain in turn.
In other words, the dividends from stock trading can continue to feed back into their own on-chain ecosystem during this round of crypto US stock growth, with both ends mutually reinforcing.
So at least from my current judgment, in this sector, OKX and Binance are very likely to remain the two leading players in this sector.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
So, regarding
@Gate
@bitget
These exchanges, which I consider to belong to the "1.5 tier," actually follow a similar logic.
Although they don't have as large user bases as Binance or OKX, they have also accumulated a large number of users, brand recognition, and trading habits over the past market cycle.
So after this wave of crypto US stocks picks up, they also have a certain scale of existing crypto users and strong user conversion capabilities, though they are somewhat weaker compared to the first tier.
Another difference is that they currently mostly benefit from exchange user dividends, making it difficult for them to further consolidate trading volume into their own public chain ecosystem like Binance and OKX.
Even so, with their current user base and distribution capacity, I think they are still strong enough to maintain a relatively high position in this round of crypto US stock competition.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Of course, from another perspective, the competitive threshold for the exchange sector itself is getting higher and higher.
In every market cycle, a batch of exchanges falls behind, declines, or even disappears entirely.
A large portion of users lost by these platforms eventually return to the leading exchanges.
As a result, leading exchanges have more users, stronger liquidity, more products, and more stable brands, making it easier to convert users first in the next wave of new asset acquisitions.
This actually creates a very obvious snowball effect.
The current crypto US stock landscape is essentially like a snowball rolling up, with leading exchanges accumulating years of users, brands, liquidity, channels, and distribution capabilities in the crypto market, now migrating to the crypto US stock market.
The wave of crypto US stocks has further solidified the existing hierarchy of exchanges, but opportunities for mid- and long-tail exchanges may truly become increasingly few.
I think this is actually one of the reasons I advised everyone not to play Xiaosuo.#7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温
Last night at 8:30 Beijing time when the Labor Department numbers came out, my first reaction was—Is that it? July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, month-on-month 0.1%, core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, all perfectly in line with expectations. The data was so good there was nothing to complain about, but also nothing to get excited about.
In plain terms—that means the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from about 46% to around 42%, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the odds of no change rising above 55%. Energy prices fell for the second consecutive month (gasoline dropped nearly 3%), housing costs are still rising but at least more moderately.
But did you notice? After the data came out last night, BTC dropped below 64,000.
Logically, with inflation cooling and rate hike expectations falling, risk assets should rise, right? But BTC didn’t give any face at all. Then I realized—the market isn’t afraid of rate hikes, it’s afraid of uncertainty. The data being "in line with expectations" gave no directional signal, and BTC has been oscillating between 62,000 and 66,000 for weeks. Last night’s data didn’t break that range. Gold, on the other hand, surged, while BTC just acted like a dead fish here.
Honestly, my position isn’t big now, about 60%. This kind of grinding market is the worst for chasing highs and cutting losses—getting hit from both sides. I’ve lost too many times before—rushing in on good data only to be crushed by market manipulators; cutting losses on bad data only to see a rebound. It’s really frustrating.
That said, core CPI dropping to 2.5% is the lowest since March 2021, so the trend is still positive. Next, we’ll see how August CPI and Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole go. The probability of a September rate hike is just over 40%, much better than before.
What’s your current position size? Did you add or reduce after last night’s CPI data? Chat in the comments, let me see if I’m the only one struggling here.
Not investment advice, brothers, just sharing. Don’t blame me if you lose money. 😂
$BTC $ETH $OKB SPCX's pre-market public quote today is around $149 to $150, showing a clear rebound from the previous post-unlock low, but this number fluctuates quickly, so please refer to the broker's real-time market for the final transaction price. Fundamentally, the company reported about $7.8 billion in revenue for Q2, a year-over-year increase of over 90%, but still posted a net loss of approximately $541 million; more importantly, the first batch of about 911 million shares has entered the sellable window, so the selling pressure from unlocked shares is not yet over.
I did not chase the bullish candle to open a long position today; earlier, I took a rebound position near $120, and after the price surged, I took profits first. The remaining position is observed with low leverage. Now I consider $135 as the boundary between bullish and bearish; only if it holds above $150 will I look toward $155 to $160; if it surges then falls back below $135, I would rather accept a profit shrinkage than #CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly between $63,000 (median realized price) and $68,700 (short-term holder cost basis), with spot trading volume dropping to 2019 lows.
Macro positive factors (CPI falling to 2.5%, new highs in US stocks) have not been passed on to BTC—the absence of buyers is clear.
Seller exhaustion signals appeared: earnings supply approached the historical bear market bottom, the seller fatigue indicator touched a cyclical low, and SOPR was rejected near the breakeven line nine times.
Lack of buyers simultaneously: ETF inflows are minimal, exchange inflows remain positive, leveraged long positions are overcrowded, open interest/volume ratio is high, and order book buying is thin.
Key observation levels: Above 68,700 + continuous ETF inflow = improvement signal; Falling below 58,500 = accelerated decline under a buying vacuum.
Currently, this is classified as a late bear market compression phase, and real demand signals have yet to appear. Spring pressure is tightening, and a turning point is imminent.
#美股全线走高, crypto stocks led the gains by $BTC The Russian central bank pushed the door open just a crack, but only let three people in: $BTC, $ETH, and $USDT.
Retail investors have an annual purchase limit of 300,000 rubles (about $3,700), calculated solely by intermediaries, and must pass risk tests first; Professional players have no limit but must comply with regulations. The threshold is clearly stated: large market cap, substantial transactions, five years of overseas price history—altcoins are directly welded outside the door.
Starting September 1, the Moscow Exchange has been building custody. What's more subtle is USDT's list: it's not that the Russian central bank favors Tether, but regulators prioritize "compliance" and "real liquidity."
This isn't embracing the crypto world; it's driving gray market funds into a cage. For $BTC/$ETH, it's an emotional boost, but for most altcoins, the door to compliance remains tightly closed.$BTC Currently, the bullish and bearish sectors are in a bullish tug-of-war, and the probability that the Fed will lean toward not cutting rates has increased significantly 🧐 after the CPI data was released
[Latest Update: Key Bitcoin (BTC) Market Highlights and Technical Analysis After CPI Data Release]
Latest price: approximately $63,559 USD (about NT$ 2,044,438)
Market Status: With the release of the latest U.S. CPI inflation data, market uncertainty has temporarily eased, and prices remain in the $63,500–$64,000 range for digestion and consolidation.
1. Data implementation and market response
• CPI Data Interpretation: Inflation data meets or is close to expectations, and macro wait-and-see sentiment is gradually easing. The market has not experienced a sharp one-sided plunge, indicating strong buying support below.
• Capital Flows: Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to show net inflows, with institutional investors gradually replenishing positions after the data is released, marking the end of the short-term shakeout phase.
2. Key technical checkpoints
• Major resistance levels: $64,180 - $64,500 (EMA moving average overlapping area; a volume breakout would trigger a new rebound)
• Strong resistance levels: $65,000 - $65,600 (key daily chart-level watershed; holding firm will confirm a strengthening turn)
• Key support levels: $63,000 - $63,200 (short-term bulls defend the bottom line; if the pullback is not broken, the structure remains healthy)
• Lower support level: $62,500 (Extreme support; if breached, beware of a drop to $60,000)
3. Recommendations for subsequent trading strategies
• Short-term traders: Wait for the price to break through $64,500 with volume and then follow the trend to buy long, or test the waters on dips when the $63,000 support is effective, strictly setting stop-losses.
• Medium- to long-term investors: After the data is released, the overall trend is likely to become clearer. It is advisable to maintain a regular investment (DCA) strategy layout and moderately control leverage ratios to guard against sudden volatility. Huang Mao, please raise the interest rate for me!
Originally, the profit from this order had already reached 15,000 USD
I was really a bit inflated back then
Thinking of waiting for CPI
waiting for the market to re-speculate on rate hike expectations
Wait until ETH falls below 1800 before exiting
But then human nature started acting again
They didn't leave when the profits were highest
Now, all he could do was watch as he gave up part of it
After trading for so long, it's still the same issue
I always feel like there's even bigger meat at the back
In the end, they often don't even eat the fish tail properly
But it's not bad
This time, I didn't lose out
At least it's still profitable
You can still hold 100x short positions
At least the initiative was still in their own hands
——
This market really taught me a lesson
It was originally thought that the CPI would become the new trigger
If inflation does not improve significantly,
Market resumes trading: "Rate cut delayed"
Risk assets are under pressure
ETH followed the trend toward 1800 or even lower
This script is logically sound complete
That's why I thought I'd broaden my horizons a bit more
Unexpectedly, after the data came out,
The market gives a completely different answer
——
After the CPI data met expectations,
Market concerns about Fed tightening have actually diminished
Funds have begun to bet again on future policy shifts
U.S. Treasury yields have not continued to rise
Pressure on the US dollar index has also eased
The crypto market did not experience the expected sell-off
That's the hardest part
No, the direction is completely wrong
Instead, the market has already finished trading expectations ahead of time
When the news finally arrived
Instead, they started following a different logic
——
$ETH Now back to around 1900
In the short term,
The area around 1890 is the first support
Only after breaking below will there be a chance to continue testing the 1850 area
If we can once again establish our footing in 1930–1950
Bearish pressure will increase significantly
After all, this rebound was not driven solely by retail investors
ETF funds and market liquidity are both influencing prices
They want to smash through with just one CPI
Looking back now, it was still a bit difficult
——
$BTC This side is also crucial
Near 63,000, there has been repeated contest
This indicates that the bullish consolidation is still ongoing
However, resistance remains significant in the 64,000–65,000 range above
If it cannot break through with increased volume,
It is likely to continue consolidating
Once it falls below 63,000
Only then will market sentiment truly weaken
Below, the 62,000 or even 60,000 area will reappear in sight
——
$MU recent trends are also worth watching
The biggest logic in the semiconductor sector right now is still AI demand
Growth in storage demand driven by data center expansion
This has led the market to reassign new valuations for memory cycles
However, the stock price has already priced in expectations in advance
In the short term, profit-taking is also likely to be realized
Watch the story when it rises
When adjusting, look at the funds
The area around $140 is an important resistance zone
If it breaks through, it means funds are still willing to continue the relay
Otherwise, avoid absorbing with high-level oscillations
——
$SNDK is the same
The AI storage concept is still in place
But after continuous increases,
Short-term funds will definitely consider cashing out
Truly strong stocks
Not a crazy daily price increase
Instead, there is still buying support during pullbacks
Next, focus on changes in trading volume
No volume increase
It can easily turn into the last wave of inducement for bulls
——
This deal is indeed a bit tough right now
The profit from 15,000 USD was not fully realized
Anyone would feel it's a pity 😭
But that's just how the market is
You can never sell at the highest point
It can safely emerge from a profitable state
It's already better than many who chase gains and sell on dips
From now on, don't go against the market
Take it when it's time to take
When it's time to stop, do it
This time, I just thought of it as spending money to buy experience
Laozhuang wants to eat off my profits
It's not that easy either
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days The leader had something to say
Don't lay out any counterfeit plans now.
After the CPI data was released, the market was still grinding, with no signs of capital spreading. AI infrastructure earnings reports were full of positive news: CoreWeave, Chaowei, and Lumentum all saw double-digit revenue growth, but their stock prices kept falling when they should. SanDisk rebounded to around 1380 in storage and started to come under pressure, indicating that incremental funds didn't come in, and existing stocks were trading back and forth among several large stocks $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The current market situation is very clear. Liquidity is concentrated in Bitcoin and a few AI concept stocks; counterfeit stocks have no independent rally. When Bitcoin is trading sideways, altcoins often fall in the shadows. Once Bitcoin truly breaks out, it's not too late to consider altcoins.
I have three orders with different logics. Short position on Bitcoin 64,250 was halved at 63,800, and the remaining half is still taken, targeting below 63,500. Holding SanDisk's 1377 short position, stop loss at 1,420, target 1,300 to 1,320. Started building positions in batches near SPCX 135, light positions, testing long positions.
Put the fake ones aside for now, and wait for the big band to gain some direction before dealing with them.
All of the above analyses are time-sensitive. You must set stop-loss orders for your orders. Good luck to you.BTC: Why the market's attitude of waiting for confirmation rather than predicting direction is effective After the CPI release, there are observations that the way individual traders respond has become a key variable determining performance. The core of the original text is simple. This means responding to confirmation, not prediction. This approach runs counter to the psychological patterns of individual investors, but when considering the risk structure of the derivatives market, it actually reads as a rational choice. Currently, BTC does not immediately respond to the macro variable of CPI, but instead fluctuates within a specific range. In this range, the futures market does not strongly indicate the direction of funding rates, and the implied volatility of the options market does not fluctuate sharply. In other words, the market is still in a phase where you reduce or hedge positions until a direction emerges, rather than betting on a specific direction. What matters here is the expectation already priced in. Rather than the CPI figures themselves, the market is pricing in the Fed's future path and changes in the liquidity environment. Therefore, right after the data release,