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Er Bing finally started to climb upward
Last night, the Nasdaq rose 0.81%
The S&P gained 0.65%
U.S. stocks are the first to boost risk sentiment
Crypto is making a quick rebound now
This rhythm is perfectly normal
Last night, I still lost 500 USD
Now they've basically fought back
59 $ETH remain held
ETH is currently fluctuating around 1886
The intraday low dropped to 1862
Then it quickly pulled back
This means there are still people taking over below
In the short term, first check if it can break through 1900
Only by holding above 1900 can there be a chance to accelerate further
Below, first hold 1871
If it breaks again, it will likely push back to 1862
——
$SNDK Don't panic just yet, if you're trapped
Last night, it surged another 13.7%.
The intraday high reached near 1579
Investor Day Overlap AI Storage Logic
They squeezed the short positions out again
But I still hold that view
This kind of price increase cannot last forever
Storage is ultimately a cyclical industry
Now the market is pricing in its expectations for the coming years
The higher you pull up
The more pressure is to realize the value later
I don't believe it can keep rising indefinitely
Hold on a bit more
Just wait for the emotions to subside
But the crowd is being sold out too hard right now
Make sure to keep enough margin
——
$BEAT Still the same demon coin
Currently around 0.85
24-hour drop of about 7%
The transaction amount still exceeded 40 million USD
After unlocking the large amount earlier,
Prices have plunged continuously from their highs
Leveraged funds have clearly not been fully cleared out
This coin will rebound strongly
Even if you hit it, it wouldn't give you any reaction time
The current rally resembles an oversold pullback
It still cannot be directly regarded as a trend reversal
——
Now is ETH catching up
SNDK was squeezed out at a high level
BEAT continues to clear leverage
Three discs
Three sets of logic
I'll hold ETH for this round of recovery
The 500U lost last night has already been recovered
Today, nothing is wrong
Let profits run a little longer on their own
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up $SNDK Market Analysis on August 14: How do you repay what SanDisk owes me!
It hurts so much, fellow Baidu friends. Last night I stopped my losses on short positions, and this morning the section chief has been searching for positions and analyzing SanDisk.
At a smaller level, watch for a pullback near 1604 during the day. This daytime scenario has played out several times before, at 7.31, 8.5, and 8.7. So during the day, watch for a pullback to 1604. For example, if it pulls back to 1600 in the afternoon (watch around 1604, this is an example), then your short stop loss should be based on closing above 1610 within 15 minutes.
This approach was just the section chief's study of SanDisk's personality and might not be accurate.
Two daily resistance levels are 1675 and 1788. Further attention can be paid to these two levels for pullbacks.
The support below is at 1385, which should be a good place to go long. If you want to cut losses, exit if the hourly close falls below 1330. Seeing 1430-1440 is already pretty good. If you're lucky, you can look a bit higher, which would be above 1500.
I suggest controlling SanDisk's position size. If you go further down, going long might be more reliable. You can try small positions. They can't hurt us again, right?#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
1. Data Overview: CPI and PPI cooled simultaneously
In terms of CPI, July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous 3.5%, in line with market expectations
Regarding PPI, July PPI rose 4.7% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 4.9%
2. Market Reaction: Expectations for rate hikes continue to cool
After the inflation data was released, market bets on a Fed rate hike in September sharply declined. On August 13, it further dropped to 40.1%.
3. Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve: Hawk-dove standoff escalates
Cooling inflation has not eliminated divisions; instead, it has made policy debates within the Federal Reserve more open.
Root causes of disagreement:
The root of the Fed's internal divisions lies in mixed signals from economic data. July CPI was mild, core CPI hit a five-year low, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, indicating economic resilience. Core CPI has dropped to 2.5%, but core PCE inflation remains above 3%, showing a clear divergence. Inflation has stayed above the 2% target for five consecutive years, causing some officials to doubt that "inflation is about to win."
4. Outlook: Uncertainty at the September interest rate meeting
Currently, the US macro environment shows a complex pattern of "inflation cooling but not reaching targets, widening differences but not making decisions."
Reasons for holding steady: CPI and PPI have cooled for two consecutive months, oil prices are clearly trending downward, and August employment reports and inflation data will be key variables ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. #标普收盘再创新高, expectations for an 8,000-point rise are high $SNDK Investor Day dropped the bombshell of "80% gross margin, 50% free cash flow margin, and 100% cash return to shareholders," causing the stock price to soar 14%—I stared at the screen and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: the market always rewards "storytellers," but the ones who truly make money are those who leave before the story is finished. 📊 Let's start with Investor Day: SanDisk dropped a nuclear bomb. On August 13, SanDisk announced its long-term financial model for fiscal years 2028 to 2030 at the 2026 Investor Day: Revenue Growth Rate: Medium-to-high double-digit growth (about 15%-19%) · Non-GAAP gross margin: approximately 80% · Non-GAAP operating margin: approximately 75% · Adjusted free cash flow margin: approximately 50% · Capital Return: After completing business investments, 100% excess free cash flow returns to shareholders, with remaining buyback quotas of $15.5 billion. There are also 8 long-term NBM customer agreements covering $94 billion in contract value, with about two-thirds of Bitcoin shipments locked in FY2028. By 2030, the potential market size for enterprise data center flash memory is expected to reach 1.2ZB. After the news broke, SanDisk's stock price surged as much as 17.6% intraday and closed up nearly 14%, driving SK Hynix and Western Digital up over 7%, and Micron up over 4%. Goldman Sachs set a target price of $2,200, still 44% higher than the closing price that day. Looks perfect, right? But the first point of anti-human thinking is—when everyone thinks it's perfect, it's often the same way$SNDK SanDisk surged 17% overnight! A trillion-yuan storage giant plays a "trump card"—the AI sector has gone absolutely crazy!
Last night on the US stock market, $SNDK surged over 17% intraday, closed up 13.67%, and its market value soared to $227.6 billion! What does that mean? A company worth hundreds of billions rising in a single day!
Reportedly, SanDisk held an "Investor Day" and dropped a trump card: for fiscal years 2028-2030, revenue is expected to grow by mid-to-high double digits annually, gross margin reaches 80%, operating profit margin 75%, and free cash flow margin 50%. Even more impressive, they promised 100% of the money earned will be returned to shareholders, leaving the buyback quota alone at $15.5 billion! Samples will be delivered next year, and the entire storage sector will soar wildly.
On the technical side, Wednesday closed at $1,528, with an intraday high of $1,580, marking a more than fivefold increase this year. Goldman Sachs directly set a target price of $2,200. Breakout on high volume, the bulls have won decisively.
Three key trading strategies: Do not chase highs in the short term; wait for pullbacks and stabilization before rewatching. Long-term players are closely watching AI storage as the main theme. NBM long-term contracts have locked in 50%-67% of shipments over the next two years, offering strong performance certainty.
Sanjie's personal view: SanDisk's current round is real cash performance and shareholder returns... But even the best stocks will pull back; don't get impulsive and chase after them at the peak.
The above is only a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market carries risks; invest cautiously.
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term targets become the focus. #海力士推进NAND扩产, expectations for storage supply are rising $LAB Heavy pressure from large-scale token unlock (core negative factors) 8-14 Massive unlocks: 282 million LAB, accounting for 28% of total supply. Team + early investors released their chips, leading to early market selling and early sales. Today's sharp drop signals the fulfillment of expectations, with continued monthly unlocks ahead. Selling pressure will persist long-term. Highly concentrated shares, market trust collapses. On-chain research points out that early internal wallets controlled the vast majority of tokens, but in July, there was already a massive internal address crash, plunging 98%+ from a high of $27. Market confidence was shattered, buying pressure was extremely weak, and even a slight sell could cause a drop of ten or twenty points. Liquidity is thin, prone to amplifying price drops. Poor depth, once a key support is broken, it triggers a large number of long contracts liquidation, leading to continued sell-offs, creating a negative cycle. As a result, daily sharp fluctuations of -15%~-25% are common. Without new major positive factors to support the market or major product iterations or major collaborations to reverse the narrative, relying solely on oversold rebounds results in poor sustained rebounds, and after the rebound, they are easily unlocked and dumped again. Is there still hope for a price to recover? Short-term (weeks): There may be a technical rebound, but it's hard to directly reverse into a major bull market. After oversold conditions, when the market recovers, a 20-40% rebound may occur, which is considered oversold recovery and does not mean returning to previous highs. As long as unlocking chips continue to flow out, the rebound height will be severely suppressed. The probability of returning to historical highs is extremely low. A large amount of low-cost early chips can be sold; Market to$ETH opened a 25x ETH short position, with an average opening price of 1884.5. Now I'm in a small floating loss. Here's a brief record of my thinking and market realities at the time.
Kaiku's thoughts at the time:
The 15-minute chart surged to around 1897, facing obvious pressure, with a long upper shadow and repeatedly failing to break through the 1900 level.
Combined with the news that large options were expiring that day, subjectively there was heavy selling pressure above, bullish strength exhausted, and a pullback expected here. Trying to catch a short-term pullback and speculate on profits in the 1870-1860 range, directly entering to open short positions.
But the market did not follow my script 📉
After the rally, it did quickly drop to 1863, but the bears did not continue. Buying support was strong, and the price pulled back to the 1880-1890 range, oscillating back and forth.
Now the price has returned above the opening price, and the short position is directly stuck.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard $ETH [Pharaoh Market Watch]
The Pharaoh said directly:
Don't assume that the S&P is aiming to break 8,000 points and assume it's the full bull market of 2007 when everything goes up with eyes closed. Wake up, this round is AI finally handing over homework to the finance department, not the Fed driving a water truck and throwing money all over the streets.
JPMorgan just raised its year-end target from 7,800 to 8,000, while Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank ...... have gathered seven 'Calabash Brothers,' all shouting for 8,000. The S&P touched above 7,800 during Thursday's session and closed at 7,798, which is indeed a record high. But pharaohs must remind you—these new highs are 'calculated by the accounts,' not 'released by loosening the water.'
What does that mean? When the Q2 reports came out, 85% of companies in the S&P 500 exceeded expectations, far above the historical average of 68%. JPMorgan Chase casually raised this year's earnings per share forecast to $365, 35% higher than last year. Where does the money come from? The backlog of cloud orders has finally turned into real cash. After years of burning through AI, it's finally starting to see returns. Goldman Sachs added another cut: this year's US equity issuance could reach $700 billion, but buybacks will be $1.4 trillion, enough to keep selling pressure on the ground.
But—Pharaoh takes the key—don't let the numbers cloud your judgment.
What is the current rally? Storage, optical communications, AI software—all are rising like they've been on stimulants. On Thursday, the S&P hit a new high, with SanDisk's nearly 14% surge driving the storage sector. What about other industries? Just standing on the sidelines and watching the drama. This is called a structural rally, not a comprehensive bull market. If you buy blindly, the index might hit a new high, and your account is still hitting new lows.
What about Dabing?
In the short term, the S&P hitting new highs shows that market risk appetite remains, and the market is not being drained to the brink. But the problem is—the rise in US stocks is driven by the "AI fulfillment logic," not the "liquidity easing logic." Bitcoin won't naturally follow the rise; don't expect others to eat meat while you drink the soup. Although the Fed's rate hike expectation has dropped from 57% to less than 40%, Treasury yields remain high, and the zero-risk interest rate suppression on risk assets is like your mom squeezing your pocket money—this has always existed.
Pharaoh's conclusion:
The S&P 8000 points was calculated by AI, not by inflating the market. Whether Bing can keep up depends on its own narrative—don't keep staring at US stocks and drooling.
Good deals are waited for, not chased. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the heart to control what you hold. When you rush in, you think you're bottom-fishing; looking back, it's most likely you're buying the stock.
Pharaoh finished speaking; you should reflect on it yourselves.
If you think Pharaoh makes sense, like and share, and I'll keep speaking with you next time. $BTC $ETH $OKB #标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point expectation is heating up $AMAT This Q3 FY2026 financial report focuses not only on record-breaking revenue but also on the combined strength of revenue, profit margin, cash flow, and next quarter guidance. For semiconductor equipment companies, this combination is more valuable than a single revenue beating expectations, indicating that demand and operating leverage are currently at play. Let's look at the core data: For the third fiscal quarter ending July 26, 2026, Applied Materials' revenue was $9.115 billion, up 25% year-over-year; GAAP net profit was $2.538 billion, up 43% year-over-year, with GAAP earnings per share of $3.17. Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $3.50, up 41% year-over-year. Revenue growth was lower than profit growth, mainly due to simultaneous improvements in gross margin and operating profit margin, rather than just increased shipment volume. Margins continue to rise. GAAP gross margin for the quarter was 50.3%, up from 48.8% in the same period last year; GAAP operating margin was 33.7%, up 3.1 percentage points year-over-year. Non-GAAP gross margin and operating margin were 50.4% and 34.0%, respectively. Management mentioned that the company has achieved year-on-year improvement in gross margin for 13 consecutive quarters, indicating that the revenue structure of advanced process, storage, and advanced packaging products is supporting profitability. Semiconductor Systems Business Remains the Core of Growth This quarter, the semiconductor systems business generated $7.04 billion in revenue, up about year-on-year Picture
☀️ Compiled from Morning Post | Friday, August 14, 2026
🟡 Gold Morning Post (XAUUSD) Spot Gold Price: $4,321/oz | As of 02:00 UTC on 8/14 (morning session range 4,320-4,325) Trends over the past two days: On Wednesday, weak CPI pushed gold prices upward and closed near 4,436 (up about 1.5% daily); On Thursday, there were sharp highs with sharp fluctuations. COMEX gold futures touched 4,500 twice before retreating, with spot prices closing down about 1.1% near 4,355; On Friday morning, the US dollar rebounded, but gold prices continued to fall to around 4,320. Technicals: RSI around 54, reversing downward; MACD below zero axis, weak momentum; The price has fallen below the 20-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average (around 4,330) serving as the dividing line between bulls and bears. Support below is 4,300/4,280, with further support at 4,218; Resistance above is 4,357/4,380, with strong resistance at 4,441-4,450. Macro: US July CPI (year-on-year 3.4%, core 2.5%) and PPI both came in below expectations, cooling market bets on Fed rate hikes, and US Treasury yields retreating; However, the US dollar index (DXY around 100) strengthened slightly during the week to suppress gold prices, SPDR holdings rebounded and central bank gold purchases provided support, and the situation in Hormuz has not fully subsided. Conclusion: After a retracement from highs, there is a weak recovery, with 4,300-4,330 as the contested zone; Holding 4,300 remains range-bound; a break below 4,218 would be a downside target.
🛢️ Crude Oil Morning (WTI / Brent) WTI spot: about $81.0/barrel | As of early 8/14 trading (intraday range 80.5-81.5) Brent spot: about $87.0/barrel | As of early trading 8/14 (intraday range 86.9-87.2) Trends for the past two days: After the EIA announced +17.42 million barrels of unexpectedly strong inventory accumulation (the largest in over 20 months) on Wednesday, WTI fell from a high of 84.35 to around 82.40; On Thursday, the two crude oils continued to fall more than 2%, with WTI closing at 81.25 and Brent down about 2.2% to 87; On Friday morning, the market stabilized following news of the Hormuz shipping incident and diplomatic mediation. Technicals: Daily MACD and RSI show weakening upward momentum, with oil prices fluctuating above the medium-term moving average resistance band; WTI support at 81.35/80.1 (below 78.1), resistance at 82.2-82.7; Brent support around 86.5, resistance at 88.0-88.9. Macro: EIA crude oil inventories +17.42 million barrels, total inventory highest since June 5; OPEC lowered its 2026 demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, IEA monthly report also tilted bearish; However, risks of Hormuz flight closure remain, US threats to "indefinitely blockade" Iran, and expanded dark ship shipments and escorts have caused geopolitical premiums to fluctuate. Conclusion: Supply-demand and geopolitical tug-of-war, mainly range-bound fluctuations: WTI at 80.1-82.7 range, weakening after breaking below 80, rebound needs to hold above 82.7.
₿ Crypto Morning Report: BTC: 63,500 (+0.2%) ETH: 1,888 (+0.7%) BNB: 610 (+0.3%) SOL: 76.2 (+0.8%) Total network market capitalization is about ₿2.18 trillion (BTC accounts for about 58.5%). Commentary: The market is stabilizing and showing divergent trends. BTC holds above 63,000, ETH and SOL are relatively strong, and a slight decline in BTC share indicates capital is spreading to altcoins; However, volume remains moderate, not yet in a phase of full-scale strength. Resistance above is 64,500, with support below at 63,000/62,000.
📌 Today's Focus • 20:30 US July Retail Sales MoMo: Consumer Momentum and Fed Policy Path Repricing Affect Dollar and Gold • 22:00 US August University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Preliminary (July final 55.2): Focus on 1-year/5-year inflation expectations • To be determined Hormuz situation and Fed officials' speech: Oil price geopolitical premium and policy expectation variables
In short: After consecutive rebounds from highs, gold is finding support around the 4,300 level. Oil prices are tuging between inventory-building and geopolitical tensions, while crypto is stabilizing with a slight strength. Today, the focus is on US retail sales and consumer confidence.
This is for market record purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.BTC miners are now feeling a bit uncomfortable: the share of fee income has dropped to 0.71%, almost back to the historical low of December 2015. At that time, the fee share was 0.69%, but Bitcoin's price was only about $394; Now, the situation is completely different: the block reward has halved from 25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, so you can't simply compare it by looking at a single ratio
More notably, the 7-day average BTC hashrate across the entire network has fallen 23% from a peak of about 1,150 EH/s in October 2025 to 886 EH/s; During the same period, the token price dropped from $124,700 to $63,400, nearly halved. Since mid-2025, fees have remained around 1% or even lower, meaning on-chain transfers and block space competition are not fierce, and miners mainly rely on block subsidies to make a living
I don't think this is called "miner surrender." Large mining farms shutting down some inefficient machines and cutting costs is a normal move in bear markets or low-profit phases. What really matters is not how much hashrate drops on a given day, but whether the fee share can regain 1% and persist, while hash rate starts to recover. That shows that on-chain demand and miner expectations are truly repairing $BTC Single-currency capital movement rankings
$BTC If there is short-term movement, first confirm whether the money is in the spot or leveraged side.
Prices moved first but position response was limited; whether to add volume in the next round is more critical. Active buying accounts for 35.8%, and currently no one has fully taken over. Let's see if transactions can break the balance.OKX brings crypto, stocks, and AI narratives into the same entrance—where is the real opportunity for OKB?
Recently, OKX has been continuously expanding tokenized stocks and equity perpetual products, bringing together crypto assets, stablecoins, money-making tools, and the X Layer ecosystem. The platform is transforming from a "place to buy and sell digital currencies" into a comprehensive gateway connecting crypto, traditional assets, and on-chain applications.
This means $OKB more than just adding a few more products to the platform. What matters is whether new users and transaction demand can flow to X Layer, forming a closed loop of wallets, stablecoins, gas, and applications. If users only trade on centralized interfaces, OKB gains more brand traffic; If assets enter the chain for use, OKB may have sustained demand.
AI will also intensify this competition. In the future, users may no longer manually switch between dozens of pages, but instead have intelligent agents handle market analysis, asset exchanges, and risk management. At that time, the most valuable platform will not necessarily be the one with the most features, but the one that connects accounts, liquidity, on-chain settlement, and AI entry points most smoothly.
Therefore, OKB's logic should upgrade from "whether platform tokens have benefits" to "whether it can become on-chain fuel for comprehensive financial gateways." Fixed supply provides scarcity, OKX provides traffic, and X Layer turns traffic into on-chain assets.
$BTC is the value anchor of the entire market, $ETH is the settlement layer of on-chain finance, and $OKB must prove whether the trading entry can grow into its own on-chain economy.Monitoring two major on-chain players. 26M account size $26M, 59 positions covering various cryptocurrencies, overall win rate 45%. Current positions are one-sided, short at $75M, long positions are almost nonexistent.
Bulk short positions: $BTC added $97K, 20x leverage, entered 63,368, unrealized loss of $63K; ETH added $579K, 15x leverage, entered at 1,885, unrealized loss of $40K; SOL added $94K, 20x leverage, unrealized loss of $126K. The only reduced position was on XRP short position, minus $70K, profiting $22K. Notably, this trader had 84 zero-win trades on $BTC and zero on 10 ETH trades.
Another account won 1,104 trades and only traded one variety. This time, I added $145K to an ETH short position, 3x leverage, entered at 1700, held $94M, and lost $9.4M. The historical win rate was perfect, but this time I entered too early and was worn down by the market for a long time.
Both big players are betting on short bets, but both are trapped. I don't follow, I'm just watching and waiting.
#Hyperliquid #链上巨鲸 #BTC #ETHInflation data has cooled across the board—why aren't BTC and ETH rising?
Many people messaged me privately today: CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, PPI is weakening in tandem, and even though expectations for rate cuts are rising, the market is still flat and unmoved?
A review of the market reveals the core contradiction: the market had already exhausted the positive news in advance, and all the bullish funds cashed out before the data was released.
$BTC current price is 63,552, with a full-day fluctuation of less than 500 points, and the $64,000 level is firmly suppressed; $ETH stuck at 1,886, the 1,900 above defensive line is repeatedly tested by bears.
More importantly, the $140 million option expiring tonight means neither bulls nor bears are willing to bet early; entering now is purely a game insertion.
Those chasing the upper price of storage-mapped $xSNDK should be especially cautious. After surging 13% the previous day, it pulled back for two consecutive days, with the 4-hour RSI severely overbought, and short-term profit-taking selling pressure not yet over.
Don't blindly buy just because good news is good; the market logic has long changed; when positive news arrives, it becomes a window to sell.
The above are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice.
#SandiskLongTermTargets #SP500Nears8000 #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit [Afan] 8.14 $ETH Approach
Entry: Near 188~190 Kong, defense 192, watch 187~185
Analysis: Erbing previously surged above the 190 level and was under pressure and moving downward. After testing the low of 186, it began a consolidation recovery, but the rebound strength is limited, and resistance from the upper moving averages persists. This round of rebound is a weak rebound after a decline, with insufficient upward momentum. The overall bearish structure has not been broken. If the rebound reaches the resistance range, you can position yourself in the Kongdan game for a pullback
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up Geopolitical deadlock supports commodities, US-Iran standoff triggers crude oil shortages, yet oil prices remain stagnant? With inflation cooling and continued ETF inflows, why is BTC falling instead of rising? There has been no substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations so far, and Iran maintains a tough stance: if the US refuses Iran's terms, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blockaded. Trump claims that the U.S. has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping and satellite data show that Iran's main export terminals are basically shut down, and both sides have fallen into a stalemate of no fight. The IEA estimates that strait blockages will cause a global daily supply gap of 1.8 million barrels in the third quarter. However, the three major energy institutions simultaneously lowered their demand forecasts, and combined with a surprise increase of 17.42 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, the upside for oil prices is limited, with WTI fluctuating around $83. Next, let's look at the overnight market. U.S. stocks were mixed, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% at 7,798 points, approaching a record high; The Nasdaq rose 0.8%, the Dow closed slightly higher, the AI sector continued to strengthen, and CoreWeave and Nebius remained highly popular. The US Dollar Index hovered near 99.8, with slight fluctuations after inflation data was released. Gold remained near $4,425, supported by mild inflation and easing rate hike expectations, but the US-Iran standoff suppressed safe-haven buying. Bitcoin's current price near 63,450, CPI and PPI confirm mild inflation, failing to drive the market. Its correlation with gold also rebounded from -0.9 at the beginning of the year to 0.7, gradually returning to digital gold attributes, with short-term difficulties8.14 $BTC Layout on Silk Road:
After a rapid dip to the low of 62,800 earlier, strong buying support led to a V-shaped recovery rebound.
The price has stabilized above the middle Bollinger band, with the moving averages turning upward to support the price; The MACD green bars are continuously narrowing, bearish momentum continues to weaken, and bullish strength is gradually returning.
Short-term support: 63,400 (Bollinger middle band, short-term bullish defensive level)
Strong support: 63,113. This is an important pullback support for this round of rebound. As long as it doesn't break below the physical level, the rebound structure remains intact
Resistance above: 63,980.6, previous high; after a breakout, the rebound space will fully open
Market analysis: The main trend is a recovery after bottoming out; pullbacks without new lows are a form of pullback and accumulation. As long as support holds, there is a chance to challenge the previous highs.
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
Admission:
Stable: Phased trading around 63,100, pullbacks stabilizing near support
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
Aggressive: Tried clearing positions near 63,400
Defense: 62,700 broke below previous low, support broken, strictly stop losses and exit
First objective: 638-639 to reach the Reduced Cang Half
Second target: Strong resistance zone near 64,250, mainly take profitNick Saab: Before Bitcoin was born, he was a cryptographic pioneer who wrote about "electronic gold."
Many say Satoshi was not the first to want decentralized currency, but he was the first to succeed. And Nick Saab is the one standing on Satoshi's shoulder.
As early as 1998, eleven years before Bitcoin's birth, this cryptographer proposed the complete concept of "Bit Gold": a fully decentralized, cryptographically and proof-of-work electronic money system that could be freely transferred globally without any third-party endorsement.
Many core designs in this concept, such as distributed ledgers, proof of work, and immutable transaction records, are highly similar to later Bitcoin. Because of this, there have long been rumors in the industry that Nick Saab is Satoshi himself. However, he has always denied it, saying he is merely a theoretical researcher.
He was not involved in Bitcoin's early development, but he has always been one of Bitcoin's most staunch supporters and the proposer of the "smart contract" concept, known as the "father of blockchain theory."
In a sense, without his early theoretical exploration, there might not have been the later Satoshi Nakamoto, nor Bitcoin. He is like a paver buried in history, watching his own vision transformed by another mysterious person into a reality that changes the world $BTC $ETH $BTC
BTC continues its range-bound consolidation pattern, surging intraday to 63,990 but pulling back under pressure, with bullish momentum lacking strength.
The 15-minute Bollinger Bands have narrowed, with prices repeatedly tugging around the middle Bollinger band. The slight short-term rebound is an internal recovery from consolidation, with insufficient momentum on one side.
The divergence between bulls and bears in the market has widened, with persistent selling pressure above, making it difficult to sustain a rally in the short term.
Operating Approach:
The rebound between 62,800 and 63,200 can be short-positioned, with a defense below 63,500, targeting 63,800, and an effective target at 64,200. Investors will focus on long-term targets going forward. #标普收盘再创新高 is expected to rise at 8,000 points, #CPI与PPI同步降温 and widening rate divergence $SOL The next wave of traffic may not be MEME: US stock tokens are competing for the "24-hour trading" market
Today, it is worth focusing specifically on a sector that is heating up: stock tokenization.
The U.S. SEC is studying a tokenized securities framework, and market participants already include Robinhood, Coinbase, Nasdaq, NYSE, and others; DTCC also plans to promote tokenization of U.S. Treasuries and large-cap stocks.
This represents a new competitive scenario for public chains like SOL and $ETH:
Who can handle on-chain trading of traditional assets such as stocks, funds, and U.S. Treasuries?
Compared to MEME, the imagination space for this sector comes from real financial assets. If stocks enter 24/7 on-chain trading, the competition is low cost, settlement speed, liquidity, and compliance. SOL's high throughput route is naturally worth attention, while ETH also has institutional and RWA ecosystem advantages.
So I won't simply bet "SOL will definitely win," but look at three data points: on-chain stock trading volume, stablecoin inflows, and real active addresses.
Regulation may drive the track and may also restrict third-party stock tokens. At this stage, it's better to treat it as a mid-term main theme rather than chasing rallies just because the word "tokenization" is mentioned.
$BTC #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen #交易之声: your experience deserves to be heard #$BTC Stalemate sideways: Can $63,445 hold? BTC touched $65,234 after CPI then dropped ~3%, once again showing the "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern. Key level: MA50 at ~$63,445 — the critical boundary. Margin orders are heavily concentrated in the $64,500–64,700 zone. Awaiting PPI data tonight. Macro: Probability of a September rate hike has dropped to ~40%; SEC vote on crypto regulations today could shape the trend for the second half of the year. The longer the sideways movement,#SandiskA $BTC major player with three years of holding the position is suspected of selling, with costs as low as 20,000, and at its peak, the unrealized profit exceeded $15.31 million 😲
Address bc1q7... jvlgw recharged 158.7 BTC ($10.01 million) 8 hours ago, with funds sourced from address 3JLdM... jEp9L, proposed on 2023.03.11; Held firmly during this period and made significant profits in this bull market, but did not choose to take profits. If sold this time, a profit of $6.206 million would be made, with profits shrinking by over 40%
Entry Address: 3JLdM8YXvHfCuHSvpMXm7ZUgHoh6DjEp9L
Forwarding address bc1q7v0xc0em9w6hjnphwcp7ntj6y80mv9meljvlgwThe total market capitalization of stablecoins is about $302 billion, but this is down 1.4% week-on-week. Structurally: USDT accounts for 60.6%, USDC for 23.9%, and others together for about 15.5%.
Contradiction: USDT's share is still rising, but the total stablecoin supply is shrinking. This indicates that funds are not leaving the market but are concentrating on the "safest and most liquid" stablecoins.
New variables: Mitsubishi UFJ plans to use blockchain for instant settlement of Japanese government bonds; Standard Chartered Anchorpoint issues the HKDAP stablecoin HKDAP; Miden is preparing to launch the privacy stablecoin USDCx
When will the total supply of stablecoins grow again, and will you think a new market cycle is coming?
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened What's the rush? The fiercer the shakeout, the more exciting the upcoming drama! 📌
Holding onto the $ETH chips tightly, cost 1902, with such a dramatic fluctuation, trying to knock me out? The dealers' tactics are way too small-scale.
Just now, ETH made a tentative dip and pushed it straight to 1870, but in the blink of an eye, a large order pulled it back above 1900. If it really happened to crash in a trend, the key defensive line at 1860 would have already been breached, so how could there still be enough room for the bulls to adjust? Clearly, this was a standard stop-loss sweep and a surge in leverage liquidation.
The 1885 area is the current defensive pivot; as long as this position is solidified, it is a solid foundation:
First goal: decisively reclaim the psychological barrier of 1885;
Key Breakout: Once 1885 holds, the chip void zone above 1892-1900 will be directly opened.
The market is trading time for space; as long as it doesn't break new lows, the bears who can't break through will panic themselves.
The Nasdaq and S&P have been hitting new highs, with overall risk appetite not shrinking at all. The current lag in the crypto market is purely due to the timing of capital rotation—the wider the scissors gap between the two markets, the more intense the catch-up rally that follows.
$LDO As the leading staking leader in the ETH ecosystem, bottom buying has quietly begun to accumulate, indicating that major funds have not exited;
$UNI The order book's support has significantly strengthened. As a core indicator of DEXs, its stabilization and stabilization have given the market a strong boost;
US tech giants $NVDA remain extremely robust in turnover at high levels, and overflow capital will ultimately seek high Beta returns in the crypto market.
The market is indeed tough, but trading is essentially a psychological game.
I'll treat this as the last bait chip thrown by the dog farm. As long as the 1935 bottom line isn't broken, I'll play this whole story with the main players!
#ETH再现链上安全事件
#美股全线走高, crypto stocks led the gains
#美国暂停预测市场州级禁令 Last night, core U.S. data was released, greatly dispelling market doubts and greatly boosting confidence in tech stocks. A few days ago, expectations of rate hikes led to significant divergence in the tech sector, leading to significant divergence in the tech sector. $SPCX $MU
Before the data came out, many worried that rising energy prices would reignite inflation and force the Fed to raise rates in September
But when the data came out, everyone realized it wasn't that scary
In July, U.S. CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year; Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, rents rose 0.1% month-on-month, food prices rose 0.1%, but energy prices actually fell 1.5%
In other words, the energy shock caused by the recent Middle East conflict is gradually fading, and market bets on a rate hike in September have been pushed from nearly 48% to around 40% intraday, with some statistical standards later dropping to around 34%.
The market's first reaction was relief. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high, and memory stocks rebounded well. Of course, the expectation of rate hikes has been suppressed, but that doesn't mean rate cut expectations have risen. Investors should rationally refer to #CPI and PPI cooling simultaneously, and the rate hike divergence is widening $联想集团 这份最新季度财报，表面上看有一个容易让人困惑的数字：报表归母净亏损 6.09 亿美元。但如果把认股权证公允价值变动带来的非现金亏损剥离出来，联想这一季的经营表现其实相当强，AI相关收入和基础设施业务是最值得看的两条线。 先看核心数据 截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日的 2026/27 财年第一季度，联想营收 269.43 亿美元，同比增长 43%；毛利 44.52 亿美元，同比增长 60%，毛利率从上年同期的 14.7% 提升至 16.5%。调整后经营利润为 15.23 亿美元，同比增长 141%；调整后归母净利润 10.75 亿美元，同比增长 176%。营收、毛利和调整后利润的增速同步上行，说明这不是单纯依靠低利润率扩张换来的增长。 报表亏损不能简单理解成经营走弱 本季度报表归母净亏损 6.09 亿美元，主要受到 16.90 亿美元认股权证公允价值变动非现金亏损影响，另有 0.30 亿美元可转换债券名义利息。这个会计项目会明显扰动当期净利润，但不等同于主营业务现金经营恶化。对这份财报，更适合同时看报表利润和调整后利润，而不是只盯着净亏损一个数字。 AI开始成为收入结构PPI ignites the tech market—how much longer can the carnival last?
Last night, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the S&P 500 hitting a new intraday high. However, the market showed clear structural differentiation, with highly biased market trends and gains mainly concentrated in technology and software sectors, while most other sectors performed flatly, and the profit-making effect was not as intense as the indices appeared.
The core driver came from July PPI data, with the monthly rate flat and the annual rate falling sharply to 4.7%, better than market expectations. Inflation cooled further, pushing the probability of a rate hike in September below 40%. The market interpreted this as a signal of a soft economic landing, rising risk appetite and a massive influx of funds into high-growth tech stocks
On the index side, the Nasdaq and S&P performed strongly, mainly driven by semiconductor and software sectors. Acquisition news stimulated a surge in related software stocks, boosting sector indices; Dow Jones' gains were slight, further confirming that the market breadth falls short of $SNDK $SKHYNIX
The bond market showed divergence: the 10-year Treasury yield declined, while the 30-year Treasury auction rate hit a 2001 high, and the market remains concerned about the long-term U.S. fiscal deficit. On the commodities side, despite geopolitical disturbances, some still retreated, gold pulled back in tanse, the US dollar index fluctuated sideways, and the yen once again approached the 160 mark.
The current market theme is very clear: inflation easing combined with AI narratives has become the core stock selection logic for funds. However, the market is highly concentrated, so caution must be held against the risk of pullbacks after favorable conditions have fully priced in.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened Seeing UBS, a top conservative firm that usually holds meetings even if a tie is slightly crooked, aggressively buying BlackRock's IBIT, the only word in my mind is: irresistible.
According to the latest 13F filing on August 14, the operations of this Swiss banking giant UBS can be described as a violent surge.
1. As of June 30, the number of IBIT shares held by UBS skyrocketed from 549,000 at the end of last year to 2.5 million shares. The holding quantity surged by 355%, this is not just testing the waters, it's like jumping straight into the pool.
2. With Bitcoin's fluctuations in the first half of the year, the value of these positions held by UBS has reached $90 million. Compared to $27 million at the end of last year, the value increased by 230%. Although this is just a drop in the bucket within UBS's trillion-level management scale, the growth slope says it all: demand is out of control.
Here, I have to pour a little cold water (professionalism requires it). The 13F filing has a common problem: it cannot distinguish whether this money was spent by UBS itself for proprietary trading or if it was bought by its private banking clients worth hundreds of millions, with UBS just placing the orders on their behalf.
But honestly, does it matter? More importantly, if it is client assets, it means the world's most selective and risk-averse old money class is flocking through compliant channels to enter the Bitcoin gate. UBS, as the gatekeeper, used to discourage, now acts as a "proxy buyer". This change in attitude is the real❤️ Analysis for August 14, 2026
News expectations are gradually turning negative, Bitcoin's daily bearish trend is relatively strong, the US session has not broken below levels, insufficient liquidity is insufficient, and the tech sector has been severely affected [Mostly on volatility, less on trading, try to wait for price levels for trading]
On the day: Today rebounded first with bullish momentum, then downtrend, 4-hour high volatility, rebound to position short positions,
Resistance levels: 1930, 2030, 65500, 67200 Support levels: 1850, 1800, 62500, 61500
Ethereum for the day: 1910, 1927 short positions, stop loss at 1940, take profit at 1850, 1820, 1800, 1750
Bitcoin Today: Current price fluctuates at 63,500, gradually moving higher. Short positions at 64,500 and 64,800, stop loss at 65,200, take profit
63200,62000,61600
For reference only, combining live streaming and technology to control position management👀 Brothers, the long-established public chain Harmony has backfired again!
This time, it wasn't stolen—4 billion tokens were printed out of thin air and dumped directly! The attackers truly "got something for nothing," swindling the project team and all holders' real money.
---
Core of the event: 4 billion ONE tokens were created out of thin air, with the price cut in half and halved again
On August 11, Harmony was attacked at the protocol layer, with a vulnerability in cross-sharding receipt verification. Attackers exploited empty block vulnerabilities for cross-sharding arbitrage, exploiting two technical flaws simultaneously:
· Blank signature records deceive the committee's quorum check
· The receipt spent mark is not bound to the signed block header data
· Tampering proof fields make the same receipt repeatedly recorded
As a result, the attacker minted about 4 billion ONE out of thin air, accounting for 26% of the total supply at the time. Even more astonishing, CertiK detected that the number of anomalously minted ONE tokens had exceeded 3 trillion, involving six anomalous blocks!
The attackers immediately transferred about 2.8 billion of these coins directly to exchanges for smashing.
---
The market exploded: 38% of its market value evaporated instantly
ONE plunged from $0.00118 to $0.00056, hitting a historic low. Within 24 hours, nearly 38% of its market value evaporated, reverting to its original state.
---
What is Harmony doing? Patching the barn after the sheep are lost, but the barrack is broken
· Emergency release of patch v2026.1.1 fixes two core vulnerabilities
· 409 suspicious wallets and 10,288 transfers were tracked
· Hundreds of suspicious deposits were reported to exchanges, and the relevant exchanges have blocked hacker wallets
· 53% of validators completed the upgrade within 4 hours
· On August 13, it was announced that the minting vulnerability fix had been activated, and a rollback plan was being coordinated with validators and exchanges
But the problem is: before the rollback plan was officially implemented, about 97% of the newly issued tokens were still on exchanges, and selling pressure was far from cleared. ZachXBT refused to assist with tracking, so the freezing effect is questionable.
---
This is already the third major safety incident for Harmony in three years!
· 2022: $100 million theft of the Horizon Bridge
· 2023: Staking vulnerability mistakenly issued 146 million ONE
· 2026: 4 billion ONE tokens will be minted out of thin air
A public chain has experienced three major failures, making trust restoration nearly impossible. This level of trust collapse doesn't stop with ONE; it will spread throughout the entire altcoin market.
---
Impact on BTC (Plain Language):
Short term: neutral to bearish
Security incidents can temporarily suppress overall market sentiment, but Harmony is too small to have a direct impact on BTC that is almost negligible. What truly needs to be watched out is that a trust crisis among altcoins is accumulating.
Mid-term: This may actually be a hidden positive for BTC
Every altcoin collapse causes funds to move toward harder assets. The loss of trust in ETH and altcoins ultimately reinforces BTC's risk-averse narrative. Whether the rollback plan can be successfully executed is a key short-term variable—if successful, it could trigger a technical rebound; if it fails, trust will collapse completely.
But regardless of the outcome, BTC will not change its direction because of this incident. Counterfeit matters are resolved at the altcoin level, while BTC follows its own path.
---
💎 To sum up a simple saying:
Harmony has crashed three times in three years, and this time it directly printed 4 billion coins to dump it, shattering trust. Fake collapses drag BTC's short-term sentiment, but medium- to long-term funds will shift toward stronger assets—BTC's "digital gold" narrative is repeatedly piled up by the corpses of the knockoff brothers.
Guys, do you think Harmony can be saved this time with a rollback? Or is this round completely doomed? Comment section: Bye bye! 👇
(Pure nonsense, not investment advice. Counterfeit assets carry high risk, so don't hold too much position!) ）$ETH A new narrative emerged: stocks, lending, and payments began to be integrated into the same on-chain account
Today, what should be watched about ETH is not its price, but a new direction for capital—on-chain financial accounts are moving closer to traditional brokers.
On August 13, Ether.fi announced the addition of tokenized stock trading and fiat accounts, and offered portfolio collateral loans through Aave.
The logic behind this is more concrete than simply "RWA benefits ETH":
Previously, users mainly traded crypto on-chain; Now, stocks, stablecoins, lending, and payments are gradually merging into the same account system.
If this model succeeds, ETH will compete not only on DeFi TVL, but on parts of traditional brokerages and banks.
In trading, I watch ETH/$BTC rather than chasing ETH just because of the news. Only when ETH continues to strengthen relative to BTC does it show that the narrative is beginning to shift into genuine capital preference.
Users will definitely use ≠ product launch. What truly matters to track is the subsequent asset scale, trading volume, and active users, not how many features the project team announces.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen #交易之声: your experience deserves to be heard [Afan] 8.14 $BTC Approach
Entry: 635~640 near Kong, defend 645, watch 625~620
Analysis: Bitcoin previously surged to 640 before pulling back under pressure, tested the 628 low before forming a recovery rebound, with volume gradually weakening during the rebound phase and significant resistance from moving averages above; This rebound is a recovery after a sharp drop, with Doto's upward momentum weak and the bearish structure not fully reversed. The rebound to the resistance zone could be a gamble for a Kongdan retracement
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up Weakness relative to BTC and bullish relative to ETH—this dichotomy is the signal that shapes the overall direction of the market. On the surface, BTC's decline and ETH's rebound seem to be in the same direction, so why is the market interpreting these as different signals? Recently, as U.S. CPI has not significantly deviated from expectations, the immediate shock of macro variables has diminished. Market attention is once again shifting to the Fed's interest rate trajectory and the next macro event. In this phase, the relative strength difference between BTC and ETH is not just a tick-by-stock movement, but reflects risk premiums and shifts in positioning in the derivatives market. BTC is showing relatively weak performance among major asset classes. This suggests that derivative indicators such as futures expiration, funding rates, and option put/call ratios are influencing market direction rather than spot demand. Given that BTC serves as a liquidation indicator representing the overall market trend, the current bearish trend is seen as a precursor to reduced risk appetite. On the other hand, ETH shows relative strength against BTC, The idea is fulfilled, and the strategies given by both BTC and ETH are precise and effective. I'm sure everyone has already witnessed it!
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion
#以太坊主网十一周年: Eleven years of uninterrupted operation and ecological achievements 8.14 Analysis of the Two Cakes
Erbing is currently oscillating repeatedly near the Bollinger middle band, with the KDJ indicator continuing to entangle and remain unclear. Overall, the rebound is weak, bullish momentum is severely lacking, and there is a possibility of a second downward move at any time. Traders must be cautious of sudden spikes and pullbacks
Analysis: Short in the 1900-1920 range, stop loss at 1940, target 1860-1820SanDisk is so powerful, even the mainstream is stunned.
---
Everyone, let's not make a single order in the morning.
This market is a bit hard to see, so let's wait and see.
SanDisk's recent surge really impressed me—
It jumped straight from 1330 to 1579 without a moment's breath.
US stocks are even stronger than mainstream stocks—what kind of script is this?
🔍 Why has SanDisk surged so much?
First, Investor Day released hardcore numbers.
FY28 revenue grew in double digits, with a gross margin of 80%, operating margin of 75%, and free cash flow margin of 50%.
Second, the HBF technology roadmap has been unveiled.
In the Qwen3 test, capital expenditure efficiency can reach up to 8 times,
It was instantly elevated to another level.
Third, customer loyalty is stronger than expected.
These are not expectations, but contracts signed in black and white.
🤔 Why are US stocks stronger than mainstream stocks?
ETH and BTC are still holding sideways, while SanDisk, a storage stock like that, has already soared.
Money is heading toward places where "performance is realized."
AI storage is not a story; it is about orders, contracts, and gross margins.
CPI and PPI cooled simultaneously, rate cut expectations remained, but the market began to be selective—
Real things are rising.
SanDisk happened to reveal all its cards at this moment.
💬 What do you think comes next?
I really didn't get to eat this time.
But don't regret it; don't force yourself to buy market trends you don't understand.
$SNDK
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened ROBO/USDT Perpetual Latest Market Overview + Intraday Execution Guide
Current Reference Price: 0.01410 USDT
Timeframe Standard: Mainly 4 hours, 1 hour auxiliary | Mode: Isolated Margin | Leverage Cap: 3 to 5x
I. Core Key Price Levels Update
Support (from near to far)
1. Short-term Defensive Support: 0.0122 ~ 0.0126
2. Mid-term Strong Support: 0.0102 ~ 0.0105 (Bottom Defense Line)
Resistance (from low to high)
1. Short-term Primary Resistance: 0.0144 ~ 0.0148 (Currently the most critical level)
2. Mid-term Watershed Resistance: 0.0160 ~ 0.0165
3. Heavy Trapped Position Zone: 0.0195 ~ 0.0210
II. Market Status Qualitative Analysis
1. Long-term trend: Continuous decline from the high of 0.0618, daily chart shows no reversal of the long-term downtrend, currently in a low-level consolidation phase;
2. Current Position: Price at 0.0134, within the middle range of [0.0126 support — 0.0148 resistance]
✅ According to trading rules: The middle zone has poor risk-reward ratio, not suitable for new entries, priority is to wait and observe for better entry points
3. Market Attribute: AI robot sector small-cap coin, highly correlated with BTC and AI sector, daily volatility generally 15%~25%, with frequent stop-loss hunting spikes by main players;
4. Fundamentals: Large unlocks concentrated in 2027, no significant short-term selling pressure, but lacks major bullish catalysts for sustained rallies.
III. Standardized Intraday Execution Checklist (Use as direct reference)
Pre-entry Screening (Any trigger → No new positions allowed)
1. BTC daily volatility >4%, pause trading due to increased risk of linked stop-loss spikes
2. Avoid opening new positions during late-night low liquidity periods, try to close positions intraday
3. Price operating within 0.0126 — 0.0144 middle range, maintain flat and observe
🔽 Long Entry Signals (Counter-trend, smaller position size, lower priority)
All entry conditions must be met simultaneously:
1. Retracement to 0.0105 ~ 0.0126 support zone
2. No new lows on 4-hour chart, presence of long lower shadows, consecutive stop in decline candles, shrinking selling volume
Stop-loss: 0.0100
Take-profit stages: First target 0.0144 (reduce 50%) | Second target 0.0160 (exit all)
❌ Prohibited long entries: Bottom fishing mid-move, blindly bottom catching during continuous new lows, only single spike lower shadows
🔼 Short Entry Signals (Trend-following, higher priority)
All entry conditions must be met simultaneously:
1. Rebound reaches 0.0144 ~ 0.0148 resistance zone
2. 4-hour chart shows long upper shadow with rejection, volume-less impulse rally
Stop-loss: 0.0152
Take-profit stages: First target 0.0125 | Second target 0.0105
❌ Prohibited short entries: Chasing shorts after sharp drops, shorting near 0.0105 bottom support
IV. Breakout Confirmation Rules (Avoid false breakout chasing)
Upward breakout long (low probability opportunity)
Strict confirmation: 4-hour candle closes solidly above 0.0148 with volume expansion, next candle does not retreat
Pullback to 0.0144 to stabilize before following; stop-loss 0.0138; target 0.0160~0.0165
Spike-only breakouts = bull traps, no long entry
Downward breakdown short
Strict confirmation: 4-hour close decisively below 0.0105, rebound fails to recover
Follow shorts on rebound; stop-loss 0.0109; target 0.0085
Single candle lower shadow spike break not valid breakdown
V. Position Management & Risk Avoidance Rules
1. Upon reaching first take-profit, reduce position by half and move stop-loss to protect profits; unconditional close on stop-loss hit, strictly no holding losing positions or averaging down
2. Do not rely on funding rates for long-term holding, as rates fluctuate frequently
3. Pause new entries if short-term price moves exceed 15%, indicating overheated sentiment, observe calmly
$EDEN surged over 50% in a single day without any official positive announcement, quickly pushing the $30 million market cap shallow to the 0.08 to 0.10 USDT resistance zone.
The 24-hour trading volume on the market surged sharply, with spot buying and contract liquidity quickly pushing prices higher. The previously low-level accumulation of chips formed a short-term short squeeze.
External sentiment stems from the return and rotation of funds in RWA sectors such as U.S. Treasury tokenization. Against the backdrop of new collaborations or product launches in the target companies themselves, pure liquidity competition has become the dominant force.
The extremely small circulating market cap amplifies the marginal utility of local buying, but it also means prices heavily rely on incremental funds to maintain risk appetite.
If trading volume can sustain support and effectively break above 0.10 USDT, long positions are expected to continue right-side momentum, further opening up upside space.
Once the team and investors regularly unlock tokens on August 15 and the funds flow into the secondary market, and buying cannot absorb the new inflationary supply, the price is very likely to break below 0.06 USDT and slide toward the 0.045 USDT support level.
Current judgments about pure liquidity pulses will be overturned when there is significant fundamental progress on-chain.
The most important variable to confirm in the next 24 hours is whether trading volume will plummet before and after the August 15 unlock date.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widened #黄金维持高位, the Bank of Korea returned to market #海力士推进NAND扩产, and expectations for storage supply rose#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
Trouble is set to happen again: CPI and PPI have cooled consecutively, but the internal arguments within the Fed have only gotten even fiercer.
On Wednesday, CPI came first, with overall 3.4%, core 2.5%, and month-on-month 0.1%, all in line with expectations. The main factor was the slowdown in gasoline price increases. On Thursday, the PPI followed, year-on-year at 4.7%, below the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.5%. Core PPI was 4.2% year-on-year, and 0.2% month-on-month, also below expectations.
The data is moderate, and the market reacts directly. The CME's probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 51.2% to 40.1%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged rose to 59.9%. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October also dropped to 44.9%. Traders began pushing rate hike expectations into October or even December.
But this does not mean the risk of rate hikes has disappeared.
Three hawkish Fed members are still publicly calling for rate hikes. Hamack was very direct—"Inflation hasn't returned to target levels yet, and the Fed may need to raise rates multiple times," and added, "A 25 basis point hike at once won't have much impact on the economy." There are also rumors on Walsh's side that if inflation data is hot, he's prepared to support rate hikes in September.
Data is cooling down, hawks are calling for rate hikes, and both sides are happening simultaneously.
The chief economist at United Credit Bank said, "July's inflation data will have a greater impact on the Fed's next decision than this month's employment report." But he also reminded that August's employment and CPI data will be released before the Fed meeting, so the July report can only be considered a mid-week break.
Both sets of data do provide reasons to "pause rate hikes," but whether to raise rates in September is not yet certain. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, and the probability of a rate hike is 40.1%. To put it bluntly, the market itself is hesitating. The CPI in August is the real decisive factor. What this data truly changes is not whether the Fed will raise rates, but the market's pricing of the "urgency of rate hikes"—from "a rate hike is a sure to be in September" to "a high probability of not raising rates in September." Before the August data comes out, I won't heavily bet on the direction at this level.If CPI drops to 3.4%, you expect to cut rates? Goldman Sachs said: Don't dream about 2026
"US July CPI fell to 3.4% year-on-year, core CPI fell to 2.5%, and inflation has been cooling continuously."
Then you feel a surge of joy: interest rate cuts are coming? Is BTC about to hit 70,000?
Don't rush.
Turning the next page—CME FedWatch data shows the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September at 65.2%. The probability of holding rates steady in October drops to just 50.1%.
65% think there will be no rate hike in September, but no one thinks there will be a cut.
This is the reality you face.
July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 3.5%; Core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, compared to 2.6% previously. PPI year-on-year was 4.7%, below the expected 4.9% and flat month-on-month. Initial jobless claims for the week rose to 209,000.
Inflation is cooling down, employment is loosening—everything seems to be heading in the direction of "easing."
But there's a number you must not overlook:
The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
Between 3.4% and 2%, the gap is not just 0.4 percentage points, but the Fed's entire year of "holding steady."
CNBC experts bluntly stated: Inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target. Capital.com analyst put it bluntly—the Fed is unlikely to declare victory.
Now, let's talk about institutions.
Goldman Sachs: No rate cuts for the entire year of 2026.
Goldman Sachs EMEA Head of Investment Strategy Matheus Dibo made it clear: "The market is still pricing in rate hike expectations, but we do not agree. We believe the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future." ”
Goldman Sachs' Chief U.S. Economist David Mericle has removed all rate cut forecasts for 2026, changing them to 25 basis point cuts each in June and December 2027.
Glenn Smith, Chief Investment Officer of GDS Wealth Management, put it even more sternly:
"At present, the Fed is very likely to keep rates unchanged until the end of the year."
Soochow Securities and CITIC Securities both maintained their judgment of "no interest rate hikes within the year."
It's not about "delaying rate cuts," but about "don't even think about it this year."
What's even more interesting is that the Fed itself is still quarreling internally.
Richmond Fed President Barkin said: Support holding the rate unchanged, as inflation mainly stems from shocks like tariffs and oil prices, which "should subside."
Cleveland Fed President Hamack directly retorted: "The Fed must raise rates now, because current policies are not restrictive, and recent shocks have driven inflation up." ”
She had already voted against a 25 basis point rate hike at the July FOMC meeting.
One said no, the other said it must.
The Fed itself doesn't know which direction to take, so why do you think rate cuts are imminent?
Back to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin hovered around $64,000. Over the past three weeks, it has fluctuated between $63,000 and $65,000. On August 14, it once dropped to $62,912, with $227 million in positions across the network being liquidated.
If the data is good, BTC hasn't risen. If the data is bad, BTC hasn't fallen.
This is the new normal under the "interest rate plateau."
Bitcoin does not pay interest—this disadvantage is amplified in a high interest rate environment. Short-term Treasuries offer you a guaranteed return of over 4%, while BTC has traded sideways between $63,000 and $65,000 for months.
This contrast simply didn't exist in 2021. Back then, interest rates were zero, and BTC was the only casino.
Now it's different.
To put it bluntly:
Don't use the 2021 script to fit the 2026 market.
In 2021, the Federal Reserve's interest rate was 0%, with unlimited liquidity injection, and BTC surged from 10,000 to 60,000.
In 2026, with interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% and inflation at 3.4%, the Federal Reserve holding it steady.
Two completely different worlds.
Sharp rises and falls will decrease. Range-bound fluctuations may be the main theme for the coming months.
This is neither a bear market nor a bull market.
This is the new normal under the "interest rate plateau"—short-term traders who endure the pressure, and those who survive win.
If inflation hasn't returned to 2%, rate cuts won't come.
Surviving in this market depends on patience, not fantasy.
$BTC $ETH $OKB #CPI与PPI同步降温, the divergence over rate hikes has widened $SNDK 1: Investment logic should not focus on trading or speculation
Looking at the investment logic focused on trading and speculation over a 3-year cycle, the probability of loss is 99% dead and 1 lifetime!
Large funds mainly focus on spot trading and high-quality core assets (multi-market). Use small funds to hone your skills, and after more than five years of stable profits, then increase your investment! When you can't make stable profits, any amount of money you invest is a loss—it's just giving money to the dog farm. You make money by luck, but you lose it through strength! In the investment field, it's all about who lives long and long; you only need to get rich once in life. Slow is fast
What does it mean to get rich twice? It means having experienced bankruptcy. It's actually very difficult to make a comeback after bankruptcy, and the inner torment is immense. So proceed steadily and steadily.
My multi-market asset allocation includes precious metals, cryptocurrency, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks—five major market asset allocations
2. Consider the cost of opening trades. Frequent orders won't win, because your funds are worn down by fees. So you need to reduce the number of trades, and find the optimal position to open with strong support and pressure, with a P/P ratio greater than 2:1, even 3:1, 5:1, 10:1, or even 20:1. As long as the P/L ratio is greater than 2:1, a 50% win rate will be a win. Pursue the ultimate P/P ratio. Open at the extreme position, minimize stop-loss and maximize profit. After the market moves, dare to gradually transition to 4, 6, or 12-hour levels to take mid-term and long-term opportunities. While pursuing the P/L ratio, increase your win rate. Only conservative and steady people can survive in the market long-term!
3. The premise of everything: do the right thing, do the right thing! Don't take chances and do things wrongly. Set take-profit and stop-loss when opening trades, don't resist trades, strictly stop losses. Holding positions is the most mistaken thing in trading! Death is only a matter of time. Respect the market! A mistake is a mistake; dare to admit mistakes, be brave enough to admit mistakes. Trading isn't about whether one trade is profitable, but about bundling ten trades. Within ten trades, there are three orders with a margin for error, and losses per trade should be controlled within 3%, or profits calculated monthly. Overall profit and loss should be mindset, never get carried away. Dare to take profits when profiting, don't hold positions when losing. Don't hold heavy positions; heavy positions must carry trades.
4. Whether investing or speculating, the first thing to think about is not to lose money, to keep your principal, to hold onto your principal, to protect your principal, not to make a lot of money. First, think about living longer, then think about profit. Principal is limited, opportunities are unlimited. Better to miss than to make mistakes; missing out won't cause losses, but making mistakes will lead to losses.
5: Learn to be empty, be patient, and wait—lurk like a cheetah, then strike decisively! The awesome are good at waiting.
6. Trading is a highly specialized task. Trying to make money by opening any trade is unrealistic. You need to study your skills and monitor the market well. Making money in trading is harder than starting a business, so it requires more effort and effort. Drawing lines is an essential skill; learning trading is essential. You need to have a logic for entering the market—take-profit points, stop-loss points, and the logic for taking profit and stop-loss — it's best to write them down.
7: When investing in large-cycle spot stock index funds, reduce attention and divert attention. The more you see, the more you want to act; the more you pay attention, the more it affects your mindset and the harder it is to hold onto. Work, fitness, basketball, card games—all are fine. Don't communicate with beginners, don't read financial information, and stay away from the market.
8: This time is different. Market sentiment is high, which is a sign of a crash. Many people believe in eternal or long-term rises, which is exactly the trap Dog Farm sets for retail investors!$SOL SOL stuck at $76 – Going to break out?
SOL consolidates around $76, preparing for the next move.
Critical level: $78 to confirm a breakout, towards $90–100; below $74 there is a risk of a decline towards $67–60.
Catalyst: SGP-0003 governance proposal aims to increase daily burns from ~650 to 7,500–9,000 tokens, pulling the inflation target to 2029. Currently 14.4% support, 15% is needed by August 18 to move forward to the vote.
Other news: MoneyGram expands fiat deposit port to Solana; Agave 4.2 upgrade underway.$BTC $ETH Trezor 披露，物流合作方 ShipMonk 遭到未授权访问，13,689 名客户资料暴露。其中 11,742 人的姓名、邮箱、电话和收货地址全部泄露，另有 1,947 人泄露了部分资料。Trezor 的系统、设备和私钥没有被攻破。 这起事件要分成两层看。 第一层是密钥安全。硬件钱包把私钥隔离在离线设备里，这一层没有失守。第二层是持有人隐私。购买实体设备会经过商店、支付、仓储和配送，每一步都可能留下“谁买了钱包、住在哪里”的关联。攻击者拿到这些资料后，不必破解芯片，只要冒充客服，用姓名和订单信息降低你的警惕，就能把普通钓鱼升级成定向攻击。 这次真正起作用的安全措施，是数据少留。Trezor 要求合作方在 90 天后删除或匿名化订单资料，因此更早的订单不在泄露范围内。安全不只是把数据库加密，还包括少收集、短期保存，以及让第三方执行同样的删除规则。 如果收到事件通知，不要因为陌生邮件或电话而立刻“迁移钱包”。设备和私钥未泄露，慌忙操作反而容易进入攻击者准备好的流程。不要在网页输入恢复短语；涉及安全操作时，手动打开官方渠道核对；购买硬件设备可考虑专用邮箱，并在条件允许时使用自提点或非家庭CPI and PPI Cooling Both Trigger Market Divergence: Interest Rate Hike Disagreements Intensify, US Stocks Strengthen, Crypto Pulls Back
US inflation data weakens across the board, with CPI and PPI cooling simultaneously. Inflation pressures on both production and consumption sides continue to ease significantly, greatly reducing the Federal Reserve's motivation for further rate hikes. However, internal policy views within the Fed are increasingly divided, and market monetary expectations have become cautious, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Marginally rising expectations for policy easing push US Treasury yields down, boosting risk asset valuations. US stocks broadly recover with widespread gains in individual stocks, led by a rebound in the tech growth sector. The market trades on the logic of economic soft landing plus valuation repair.
In contrast to the strengthening US stock market, the crypto market retreats against the trend. The core reason is that crypto assets heavily rely on comprehensive rate cuts and incremental easing liquidity. Currently, only the probability of rate hikes has declined, the rate cut cycle has not yet begun, and the liquidity environment is not substantially eased. Coupled with prior positive factors already priced in, speculative funds are taking profits and exiting, leading to pressure and adjustment in the market.
Overall, the current market shows a typical structural divergence: cooling inflation benefits equity market recovery but is insufficient to support sustained strength in crypto assets. In the short term, US stocks show a somewhat structural trend, while the crypto market continues a weak, volatile pattern. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 $BTC Encountering an abnormal market: CPI and PPI are both good, so why still can't break through to 64,000?
US July CPI fell year-on-year to 3.4%, and core CPI also dropped from 2.6% to 2.5%; The latest PPI performance is also moderate, but BTC remains held back near $64,000.
This actually shows that what BTC lacks right now is not positive news, but active buying.
On-chain cost data shows that about 9% of circulating BTC costs are concentrated between $62,000 and $65,000, while the average cost for short-term holders over the past six months is about $68,700. Every rebound may trigger uneven sell-offs.
So today, I won't use macro data as a reason for price increases, but rather see if prices can prove their strength:
Only when the 64,000–65,000 volume stabilizes will demand regain dominance;
If the 62,000–63,000 level is lost, it means that even positive news cannot drive the market, and the structure is actually weaker.
The most important thing to watch out for is not a decline from negative news, but rather "good news not rising." Positive news that the market does not accept cannot be used as trading logic for now.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen $ETH 8.14 SanDisk morning thoughts
$SNDK Looking back at yesterday's SanDisk, the white market entered a typical range-bound consolidation, with bulls and bears repeatedly tugging. We followed the trend, buying low and selling high, steadily closing in over 50 points during the day, laying a solid base for trading all day. However, the evening situation suddenly changed, with news triggering the market. SanDisk sprang from the 1332 low and surged with volume to 1580. This accelerated rally after a breakout tests decisiveness on the spot. At that time, A Yue decisively entered a long position at 1369. The logic was simple: a strong breakout stimulated by the news, a pullback was confirmation, and following the trend was sufficient. In the end, over 180 points of profit were fully pocketed. This trade was both a fulfillment of prediction and a commitment to trading discipline. In fact, trading isn't all about fancy tricks; it's just about staying patient during volatility and not acting rashly; daring to stand on the right side amid divergences during market changes. Profits are never made by guessing, but by stepping on rhythm. Grinding oscillations during the day and surging at night. As long as you stick to the system and block out noise, the signals will come. Don't be afraid of missing out or be greedy. Lock positions when you should, exit when you should. The market will eventually reward those who remain calm and focused.
Looking at the current four-hour chart, SanDisk, stimulated by news last night, has seen an extremely high-volume rally, with a single bullish candlestick directly breaking through all short-term resistance barriers. However, this concentrated emotional outpouring has actually exhausted its momentum. Currently, after a sharp surge, SanDisk is stuck in a high-level sideways consolidation, with the body shrinking and a long upper shadow. This is a typical signal of weakening bullish momentum. Although the trend reference is still rising, the deviation between the price and the trajectory is too large, indicating a strong technical need for a pullback and recovery. Chasing rallies here makes it easy to get trapped, and the gradual decline of the rebound high also indicates increasing selling pressure at high levels. Looking at the candlesticks, if a rapid second volume increase breaks through the previous high, there is a structural suspicion of constructing a double top or a bullish trap. Right now, the competition is patience and risk control, not blind gambling. Rather than focusing on the above, before a valid breakout forms, it is better to rely on the previous high as defensive resistance, then shift to a high level mindset and wait for value to return once sentiment cools.
For trading, SanDisk is short around 1360-1380, with targets focused on 1350-1400.
$BTC
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus $OpenEden (EDEN) surged 50%+ in a single day
The rise is driving several points
The narrative of RWA real assets is reviving once again
OpenEden's core track is RWA, focusing on US Treasury tokenization and USDO yield-bearing stablecoins, making it one of the representative RWA projects in the industry. Recently, the RWA sector has rotated collectively, with capital flowing back into this track, and EDEN was selected by capital to drive up the market.
The market cap is small, making it easy for prices to rise
With a total market cap of only about $30 million, the circulating market is not large, and a small amount of capital entering the market can generate a 50%+ gain. The 24-hour trading volume surges, with contract + spot funds pouring in, creating a short-term short squeeze.
Technically, it rebounded from oversold stocks
In the early stage, the market experienced a long-term deep decline, remaining in a low range, accumulating a large amount of trapped positions, with concentrated chips at low levels. Once buying pressure entered, selling pressure could not be released in the short term, leading to a rapid surge.
No new projects launched, no new partnerships with major institutions, no new airdrop announcements, and no major news simultaneously on Twitter or GitHub. This is market capital speculation, not fundamentals-driven growth.
Key risk points
Continuous token unlocks: Every month, team and investor tokens are unlocked, with unlocks available every 8-15 minutes. After a surge, it's easy for unlocked chips to sell and dump on the rally, and after a sharp rise, rapid drawdowns often follow.
Small-cap coins can rise sharply or fall sharply, with contract insertion being very aggressive.
RWA is a thematic hype; when narrative hype fades, prices quickly fall.
Key Price Reference (for observation only, not trading advice)
Short-term resistance: 0.08-0.10 USDT range
Key support levels: 0.06, 0.045 USDT
Key point to watch: Watch whether trading volume can continue to expand. If volume shrinks, it is most likely a short-term pulse market.
$EDEN This time, it wasn't the agreement being hacked, but the search results that stole $550,000
Someone searched for the official Hyperliquid website.
Click on the ad at the front.
Then about $550,000 USDC was gone.
On-chain records released by security personnel show that a user allegedly entered a fake website promoted by search ads, after which three transfers were made to the attacker's address.
Let's clarify the facts first:
Currently, there is no evidence that the Hyperliquid protocol has been compromised.
What is truly exploited is users' trust in search rankings and the "sense of ad validation."
What's even scarier is that this is not an isolated case.
In April this year, the security organization SEAL intercepted 356 malicious search ad links within several weeks, including pages impersonating Hyperliquid.
Scammers don't need to break blockchain at all.
All you need to do is sign the authorization yourself.
Even the strongest smart contracts in Web3 can't protect the most common fake link in Web2.
My habit is to only check bookmarks, official social media links, and domain name verbatim verification; no search ads connect to the wallet.
Do you think wallets should default to blocking unauthorized authorizations, or should asset security be solely the responsibility of the user?钱包没被攻破，买钱包的人却先暴露了 今天看到 Trezor 的数据泄露消息，我第一反应不是“又一家被黑了”，而是去翻了一下自己买硬件钱包时留下过什么资料。 姓名、手机号、邮箱、收货地址。 凑在一起，已经足够让骗子讲出一个很像真的故事。 据 Trezor 对外披露，其物流合作伙伴 ShipMonk 遭到未授权访问。事件涉及 13,689 名客户：其中 11,742 人的姓名、邮箱、电话和收货地址全部暴露，另有 1,947 人泄露了姓名、城市和邮箱。 Trezor 强调，其自身系统和设备没有被攻破。 这当然是个重要区别，但对用户来说，麻烦并没有因此消失。攻击者不需要破解硬件钱包，只要知道你买过一台、住在哪里、电话是多少，就能设计一场更有针对性的钓鱼。 “您的设备存在风险，请立即迁移资产。” “这是官方安全团队，请核对订单信息。” “我们将寄送替换设备，请先验证助记词。” 以前看到这种话术，很多人会觉得太假。但如果对方能说出你的姓名、购买时间和收货地址，警惕性很容易松动。 更让人不舒服的是，这并非一个孤立事件。 Coldcard 最近的固件漏洞说明，设备没有联网，也不等于种子生成过程没有风险