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If you don't have time to watch the market, take a look! $ETH Suddenly hit the pause button! Hidden funds are moving near 1880—the next wave of opportunity is here!
ETH is getting interesting here......
Many people panic when the price fluctuates, but looking at the 1-hour candlestick, the previous drop to around 1860 quickly pulls back indicates that there is no buyer below.
Right now, the market seems to be waiting for a direction.
The 1880-1890 range is repeatedly fluctuating, with both bulls and bears testing the waters. My view is not to rush to chase gains in the short term; focus on two key positions first:
If it stabilizes near 1870, consider bullish positions at lower levels, targeting the 1900-1910 area;
If volume can't keep up near 1900-1910, consider shorting for a short time and defending above 1915.
Many previous market trends were like this: real opportunities often don't happen during explosive surges, but when the market hesitates.
ETH is now in the window for choosing direction; next, it depends on whether funds will break this balance.
Do you think ETH will break through 1900 first, or will it first test 1860?
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens, #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points expectation heats up #闪迪投资者日后, and long-term targets become the focus $DOGE Recently, a feeling has become increasingly clear when watching the market: as long as the overall market stays stable, it's easy for the market to experience a very clear wave of diffusion. It starts with mainstream coins, then moves to large-cap coins like $SOL, XRP, BNB, then down to mid and small caps, and finally Meme coins go crazy to finish. Many people are still waiting according to this script, so when a coin in their portfolio hasn't risen, their first reaction is "Don't worry,#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
I believe the urgency of a Fed rate hike in September has significantly diminished, but market pricing will continue to fluctuate, with the core logic being the tug-of-war between weakening data and stubborn officials.
The latest macroeconomic data shows that U.S. inflation is slowing across the board, from the production side to the consumption side. In July, the PPI year-on-year fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, and core PPI fell from 4.7% to 4.2% year-on-year, with month-on-month increases both below expectations. This directly weakened the data support for the Fed's continued aggressive rate hikes.
Although the data supports expectations for rate cuts, there is no consensus on policy, which is currently the biggest source of uncertainty.
Hawkish voices like Hamak and other officials continue to reiterate the need for rate hikes, emphasizing that inflation efforts have not been fully achieved.
Dovish/neutral voices like Barkin said many believe current interest rate levels are sufficient to curb inflation, hinting at the possibility of pausing rate hikes
Based on the above analysis, the subsequent market trend is likely to show the following characteristics: Due to the reduced urgency of interest rate hikes, the upside of the dollar index and Treasury yields is limited, and in the short term, they may remain oscillating at high levels or slightly retreat, unless inflation data suddenly rebounds.
Gold and BTC: As liquidity-sensitive risk and safe-haven assets, they have gained a breathing space amid cooling expectations of rate hikes. As long as the Fed does not issue unexpectedly hawkish signals, gold and BTC are expected to find support or even rebound within their current range.
Interest rate pricing in September will continue to fluctuate, so taking advantage of these volatility opportunities is better than holding on to long-term positions.
@OKX planet The most common misunderstanding on the one-hour trending chart is that the total volume is mistaken for trends. The official snapshot of OKX Onchain OS from 08:00 on August 14 shows that BTC, ETH, and SOL were mentioned 94, 18, and 18 times respectively in the past hour; The total 24-hour volume was 1,436, 644, and 572 times. To compare the two windows, you can first divide the total of 24 hours by 24, then use the latest hour to compare. The results were BTC at 1.57x, ETH at 0.67x, and SOL at 0.76x. A score above one indicates activity in the most recent hour compared to the full-day average; below one indicates relative quiet; This is just a discussion of speed, not rate of return. According to this caliber, BTC is clearly accelerating, ETH is noticeably slowing, and SOL is slowing down. Whoever has the highest original mentions may not necessarily be the one whose baseline temperature is rising the fastest. Distinguishing between "the highest volume" and the "fastest acceleration" can reduce many misjudgments. The tone is another layer to consider. BTC is close between bulls and bears, with slightly bullish and bearish rates of 27% and 29%, respectively; ETH is slightly bullish, with proportions of 28% and 11%; SOL is slightly bullish, with proportions of 28% and 11%. The key here is the denominator. ETH only happens 18 times per hour, SOL 18 times, so a few new texts can significantly change the percentage; Although BTC has a larger sample, it may also include forwards and references from the same event. By percentage$BTC The S&P 500 climbs a step in seven days, with 8,000 points just around the corner
On August 13, the S&P 500 broke through 7,800 points intraday for the first time, closing at 7,798.99. From first breaking above 7,700 points on August 4 to today, it took only seven days. From 7,800 to 8,000, that's just a 2.5% difference.
The direct driver of this breakthrough was the PPI. In July, the PPI was flat month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year, while the core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, all below expectations. Last week, the CPI already dropped, and this week the PPI was confirmed again, basically easing the pressure for a rate hike in September.
More importantly, profitability is still on the rise. Citi raised its full-year earnings per share forecast for the S&P 500 from $350 to $365, citing "accelerated revenue growth and further margin expansion," while maintaining the year-end target of 8,100 points. CFRA is more aggressive, setting its year-end target at 8,050 points.
From a data perspective, the rally is well-reasoned — cooling inflation + earnings revision, a typical Davis double-click scenario.
But there are a few details worth noting.
The S&P 500 Schiller P/E ratio has reached 42 times, second only to the 44 times during the 1999 internet bubble. The current P/E ratio is 28 times, significantly higher than the five-year average of 24 times. Although earnings growth has absorbed some valuations (forward PE dropped from 22.2 to 20.4), historically, this is still the second most expensive market in the past 25 years.
Additionally, when Citi raised its earnings forecast, it mentioned that the revenue trend of AI-invested companies "should help support the AI-affected portion of the index." To put it simply: whether it rises depends on whether AI can sustain its performance.
The closer the index gets to 8000, the more sensitive the market becomes to interest rates and earnings. Low inflation gives breathing room, earnings upward revisions give reasons for gains, but a 42x Shiller PE shows the market has already priced in many optimistic future expectations in advance. The next question is: can corporate earnings and AI revenue continue to support this valuation?
Though the price increases are lively, the calculations still need to be settled.
#标普收盘再创新高. The expected rise to 8,000 points is $SOL $OKB More and more signs are starting to taste like the latter half of the bear market
The proportion of short-term BTC holders continues to decline
This phenomenon has appeared in the later stages of previous bear markets
There are fewer short-term players, and new funds are not active
Market attention has declined
Meanwhile, chips are gradually settling into the hands of long-term holders
The hardest phase of a bear market is often not the daily plunge
Instead, it fell to the end, with fewer and fewer people even discussing it
The next step is for short-term holders
The proportion has rebounded from its low levels.
That means new participants and new demands are present
It has started entering the market again.老铁们，最近圈子里有个事儿，表面上看波澜不惊，实际上暗流涌动，比连续剧还精彩。大家都在盯着比特币和以太坊的价格K线，恨不得一天看八百遍，但真正的大新闻，压根不是这俩大哥又涨了多少跌了多少，而是——这顿大餐，最后到底谁才能上桌吃肉？🍽️ 美帝那边新出的稳定币规则，一锤子敲定了：想管稳定币的准备金？行，但必须是持牌上岗、受严格监管的机构，也就是银行和正规托管人。这消息一出，圈内老韭菜们的第一反应是：“哇，利好！比特币以太坊要起飞！” 兄弟，冷静，这波情绪纯属自己给自己加戏。比特币和以太坊确实能沾点光，因为合规托管的路子铺好了，机构进场的门槛低了，但问题是，托管手续费这杯羹，跟咱们持币人有半毛钱关系吗？没有！你拿着比特币，你能收到Circle给股东分红吗？想啥呢，那是人家的收益。 再看看USDC和RLUSD这俩稳定币，持有人说白了就是图个稳，跟存美元差不多，想要利息？不好意思，储备收益的大头被发行方和生态伙伴拿走了。Circle最新的账本写得明明白白，USDC的储备金主要躺在现金、银行存款和短期美债里，赚的是无风险利息，这笔钱归谁？反正不归你。这就是现实，你抱着稳定币睡觉，梦里是安稳了，但GOOD INFLATION DATA, BUT BTC & ETH STILL FLAT WHY?
CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, PPI also softened, and rate-cut expectations are heating up.
So why aren’t $BTC and $ETH moving higher?
Because markets trade expectations, not headlines.
$BTC is around $63,552, with daily volatility below 500 points, while $64,000 remains heavy resistance.
$ETH is near $1,886, repeatedly testing the $1,900 level without a convincing breakout.
The bigger issue: much of the bullish inflation narrative may already have been priced in before the data arrived. Traders who bought the expectation may now be taking profits instead of adding fresh exposure.
With roughly $140M in options expiring tonight, both sides have another reason to stay cautious.
The lesson?
Good news doesn’t automatically mean higher prices.
When positioning is already crowded, the actual data release can become a liquidity event rather than the start of a rally.
I’m watching volume and price reaction, not just the headlines.
Personal market view, not financial advice.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets $ETH Yesterday I took profit on short positions, but unfortunately didn't buy long.
If you had reversed a lot yesterday this round, you might have taken another bite today.
Today, ETH was once again grinding back and forth around 1890, with support at 1900 still unbroken.
So around 1887, I opened another empty account.
Let's test the waters first.
Recently, the wave trend has been a short-term gamble, and the previous day's pins have already broken even.
Thanks to the market for giving me face.
The current market situation is quite interesting:
Both CPI and PPI are cooling down, expectations for a rate cut in September remain, and ETH ETF funds and institutional attention are not bad.
The news is good, but ETH is just sluggishly rising.
It may take a moment to stabilize above 1900 before a clear direction can be clarified.
Recently, it has been fluctuating and consolidating.
Don't give me another big needle 😂 for this empty stroke today
If you make a profit, you run; if you make a mistake, you admit it.
Money from the market is taken slowly.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced?
#高盛收购Neos, crypto ETFs are shifting to earnings competition This SEC isn't stepping on the gas for RWA—it's pushing the accelerator back. The innovative exemption for tokenized assets has been pushed back again. Public reports say both Wall Street and the White House have concerns, especially whether third parties can issue stock tokens without the approval of a listed company. At the same time, the Reg Crypto rule proposal meeting originally scheduled for August 15 was canceled, citing "unforeseen scheduling issues" and no new date being given. With both administrative rules and legislation stuck at the same time, the short-term narrative of the RWA naturally took a breather. You could say RWA is a long-term direction, but long-term direction and short-term catalysts are two different things. What the market lacks most right now is the certainty of "it will come soon." The market has already made its stance clear. In the past 24 hours, there were about $238 million in liquidations across the network, with 131 million in long positions and 108 million in short positions, with the panic index still hovering at 29. The market isn't waiting for RWAs to take off; it's waiting for those whose expectations were disappointed to lower their leverage first. So don't take the word "tokenization" as a sign of cashing out at the founding moment. What really holds it back isn't whether the technology can be put on-chain, but that equity, regulation, and third-party rights haven't aligned yet. When the SEC delays, the first to suffer is not the future of RWA, but those who rush in using short-term benefits as long-term logic. It's not that the narrative is dead, it's that the timeline is wrong. The above content is compiled based on publicly available information and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. SEC policies, market liquidation data, and panic indices may continue to change, please8,000 is no longer a distant number.
The S&P 500 traded above 7,800 for the first time on Aug 13 and closed at a record 7,798.99, up 0.7%. The index is now up 13.9% this year.
July PPI provided the latest push:
· Headline PPI was flat MoM and slowed from 5.5% to 4.7% YoY
· Final demand goods fell 0.7%, led by a 3.1% drop in energy
· Services still rose 0.2%, showing that inflation pressure has not disappeared
The details were less uniformly soft. PPI excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.4% MoM and 4.7% YoY. Portfolio management prices jumped 6.5%, and that category feeds into the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure.
The labor signal was also mixed. Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, above the 205,000 forecast, but the four-week average remained at 199,000. The labor market is cooling, yet layoffs are still historically low.
Treasury yields eased as the data softened market pressure for a September hike. That gave equities another boost, but markets are increasingly pricing cooling inflation and strong earnings at the same time.
Citi's published year-end target of 8,100 is now less than 4% above Thursday's close. Its forecast is supported by $350 in 2026 S&P 500 EPS, although Citi has questioned how long AI-driven growth can persist beyond 2027.
The earnings structure also matters. Goldman Sachs estimates AI infrastructure beneficiaries could deliver roughly half of the S&P 500's earnings growth this year, while warning that market breadth has narrowed and momentum has risen.
The next major policy signal may come from Jackson Hole, beginning Aug 27. Any shift in the Fed's inflation assessment could quickly reset yields, equity valuations and risk appetite.
For crypto, softer inflation can support liquidity expectations and risk appetite. But elevated equity valuations also make markets more sensitive to the next inflation surprise, earnings miss or change in rate expectations.
Will BTC keep following equities if inflation cools, or start trading on crypto-native catalysts again?
#SP500Nears8000 #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit $SPY $XSPY Musk pushes AI competition into a computing power armament race—why might ETH benefit more than most AI coins?
One of the most common misconceptions in the AI market recently is that as long as Musk releases a new model and xAI expands computing power, all tokens labeled as "AI" should rise. But the real competition in large models is no longer a concept contest, but more like a heavy-asset battle over computing power, data, distribution, and business closed loops. Grok continuously strengthens programming, intelligent agents, and enterprise work capabilities, showing that Musk is not just fighting for chatbot users, but for the entry point for next-generation software.
This connection to the crypto market may not be as direct as "AI models on-chain," but it is more important than simply issuing an AI coin. In the future, if intelligent agents can search for products, manage subscriptions, call APIs, execute transactions, and even settle with another agent on behalf of users, what they need first is not an emotional token, but a globally accessible, programmable, and verifiable account and payment system. AI is responsible for decision-making, blockchain confirms ownership and completes settlements; the real intersection may lie in the infrastructure, not in the concept name.
$ETH is the opportunity here. The Ethereum Foundation's 2026 protocol priorities already place scaling, improving user experience, and strengthening L1 security on the same roadmap, with native account abstraction and cross-chain interoperability being especially critical. Today, ordinary people still need to understand mnemonic phrases, gas, and different networks when using on-chain applications; intelligent proxies need to enter the chain at scale, but they also cannot wait for human signatures at every step. Accounts need to have permission boundaries, batch transactions, fee payments, recovery mechanisms, and revocable authorizations—these are the long-term problems account abstraction wants to solve.
If this path succeeds, ETH's value may not necessarily come from "AI projects buying ETH," but from a large number of agents creating accounts, calling contracts, settling stablecoins, and verifying digital assets on Ethereum and its Layer 2 network. Just as internet companies do not need to issue "cloud computing shares" to use cloud services, AI proxies do not necessarily need exclusive tokens to generate on-chain demand. The market ultimately asks not whether a project name contains AI, but who provides the settlement, security, and liquidity that agents truly rely on.
Musk's advantage has always been not just the model itself, but its distribution capability. X has real-time content and user relationships, Grok can be an information entry point, and Tesla and other businesses may provide real-world device entry points. Once AI moves from answering questions to performing tasks on behalf of others, whoever controls the entry point can decide what services the agent calls, what payment methods to use, and what data to accumulate. For the crypto industry, the biggest variable is not whether Musk suddenly announces support for a particular coin, but whether closed platforms will allow open networks to access payment and identity layers.
This is also the difference between $BTC and ETH in AI narratives. BTC is best suited to bear the scarce reserve assets in the machine world; its rules are simple and consensus strong, suitable for companies or agents to hold long-term; ETH is more like a programmable ledger in the machine economy, suitable for complex authorization, stablecoin payments, and contract collaboration. One is responsible for preserving value, the other organizes transactions. The AI era may not necessarily replace the two; instead, it may clarify their division of labor.
On the other hand, $OKB platform ecosystem assets may benefit from a layer of traffic closer to users. Most people won't immediately learn cross-chain bridges and contract permission management just because AI proxies appear; they're more likely to start with familiar trading accounts, wallet portals, and aggregation products. If platforms can use AI for risk alerts, asset screening, strategy explanations, and automation tools, while making permission control transparent enough, it has the chance to upgrade "AI helps me check the market" to "AI helps me complete a set of auditable operations." The value here comes from real use, not from renaming chat boxes.
Of course, the biggest risk in this story now is also obvious. First, once an intelligent agent gains control over funds, erroneous instructions, model illusions, and malicious prompt injections can turn from content issues into real financial losses; Second, if on-chain authorization is designed too broadly, a compromised proxy could drain the account within seconds; Third, large model companies can fully choose traditional bank cards, internal points, and centralized databases, and may not naturally require public blockchains. Technically, "combinable" does not mean "must integrate" commercially.
Therefore, to judge whether AI can truly benefit ETH, we can't just look at how much AI coins have risen; we need to observe three more practical signals: whether smart wallets are starting to provide fine-grained authorization by default, whether stablecoins are making more machine-to-machine payments, and whether proxy calls on-chain contracts can be low-cost, recoverable, and auditable. If these data grow, ETH is absorbing AI productivity; If only project names and slogans grow, it's just repackaging the previous narrative.
My judgment is that the more Musk pushes AI toward intelligent agents and real workflows, the more the market will reassess "who provides accounts, payments, and ownership for machines." The first to benefit may not be the most vocal AI tokens; instead, networks that already have security, liquidity, stablecoins, and developer infrastructure may benefit. ETH's potential is not about riding on Grok, but about becoming a public settlement layer that any model can use and no proxy can arbitrarily tamper with.
AI is responsible for making machines think better, while blockchain ensures machine promises can be verified. The former creates efficiency, the latter builds trust.
$ETH The next question is not whether AI agents can tell another AI story, but whether AI agents can truly willingly spend and receive money on-chain for the first time, leaving a ledger for every action.🚀 $SOL SOL's popularity has been steadily rising recently, with its high performance and rapidly developing ecosystem attracting significant attention. But market competition will never stop. Who will become the biggest winner in the future: ETH, SOL, or BNB?
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus $EDEN According to economic theory and common sense, based on the relationship between vol volume and actual price, I should increase my position. At the four-hour level, there is a high probability of a strong volume-price mismatch. But recently, I met a brother who studies finance like me, and from him, I learned that even if your knowledge and market intuition are strong, if the market experiences an unusual outcome, I could be swept away in one wave. Thinking carefully, while pursuing high returns, I often forget that profits and losses come from the same source, and I always disregard risk, so I just wait and see$BTC A large amount of orders in the cluster just below the current price movement from my recent tweet was wiped out today.
Currently, we are in the middle of a range where the price has been constantly bouncing/stuck in it since the opening of the monthly session.
However, my view is leaning towards the bearish in the short term.
However, there are still many convergence factors that could lead us towards the highs around $70k, which makes me think that the large liquidity cluster around the 66k level will be "sucked in" in the next few weeks.Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East is rising again, with geopolitical risks impacting the crypto market
The Middle East situation has once again brought new variables. The US military announced the formation of a multinational drone task force called "Falcon Strike." As news broke, the crypto market immediately saw a wave of rapid sell-off. $BTC quickly plunged from around $63,600, hitting a low of 62,800. ETH weakened along with the broader market, once dropping to around $1,862, and risk aversion quickly dominated the short-term market.
From the background of the event, this drone force is a medium- to long-term military deployment, but current market sentiment is very sensitive. Iran has previously stated that the conflict is escalating, and in this environment, the U.S. military's efforts to strengthen strike capabilities in the Middle East are seen by the market as a signal of further escalation. Funds prioritize safe havens and flights, directly pricing geopolitical risks into coin prices. However, it is important to distinguish that most geopolitical news is a short-term impulse market; it depends on whether the conflict further escalates or remains merely a verbal deterrent.
$BTC current market situation
The current price is $63,300, already approaching the key support zone between $63,300 and $63,000.
If there are no signals of easing in the situation going forward, support levels will face severe challenges. Once the volume surges below $63,000, a large number of long stop-loss orders will be triggered, accelerating the market downward as the market moves further toward the $62,000-62,500 range.
The $64,000 level above has turned into strong resistance. Without volume supporting the subsequent rebound, it will be difficult to reclaim this level.
$ETH current market situation
$ETH is weakening along with the broader market and is testing the $1850-1870 support range. The persistently weak ETH/BTC exchange rate indicates that Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin.
Once Bitcoin breaks through the support, ETH's pullback is often even greater, potentially directly breaking below $1850 and moving toward the $1800-1820 range. The previously important level at $1900 has shifted from support to short-term strong resistance.
A major feature of geodynamic-driven markets is that they come quickly and fluctuate wildly, but their sustainability depends on whether the event continues to ferment. Verbal games are mostly brief shocks; Once a real conflict escalates, risks continue to spread.
On a practical level, $63,000 is the lifeline for short-term bulls. If this level is effectively broken, long positions are not recommended to hold on; timely risk control and exit are necessary. Geopolitical tensions are rising; do not blindly buy dips to play for rebounds; prioritize avoiding the damage caused by uncertainty. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen #闪迪投资者日后, making long-term targets the focus #CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
Let's take a complete look at the latest US July inflation data. The biggest market conflict right now is the weakening economic data and the Fed's internal policy stance.
Let's look at the fundamentals first: in July, the PPI fell to 4.7% year-on-year, while the core PPI rose to 4.2%, with month-on-month increases all below market expectations; Previously, CPI fell to 3.4% year-on-year, and core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year. Inflation on both the consumer and industrial production sides cooled simultaneously, indicating that upstream and downstream price growth momentum is fading. At the same time, initial jobless claims for the week rebounded to 209,000, showing signs of marginal weakening in the job market.
From a traditional logic, falling inflation combined with slowing employment would significantly weaken the Fed's foundation for further rate hikes, so the market should further lower the probability of a rate hike in September. But reality has not been one-sided; the core reason is that Fed officials' views have become clearly divided.
Hawkish representative Hamack reiterated the need for continued rate hikes, believing that vigilance should not be relaxed just because short-term inflation is declining, and that inflation should not be allowed to rebound; Balkin, on the other hand, holds the opposite view, arguing that current rates are already effective in curbing inflation and that further increases are unnecessary.
This internal divergence means the market cannot directly judge policy shifts based on inflation improvement. Data is objective, but policy judgments are made by people; as long as officials do not reach consensus, interest rate pricing in September will continue to waver.
In the coming period, fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will directly affect gold and crypto markets. It's possible that the data will be dovish and lead a wave of gains, and then hawkish officials' speeches will revert to their original state.
When trading, we can't just focus on inflation alone; we need to track it on two lines: on one hand, monitor the continuity of subsequent economic and inflation data, and on the other, focus on the public statements from Fed officials. In the current environment, one-sided betting carries high risk, and market volatility is highly volatile. Keeping more margin for error is much safer.#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
Today I carefully reviewed the latest US CPI and PPI data. Overall, my feeling is that the data is moving toward easing, but the market's uncertainty hasn't diminished at all. I want to discuss this with everyone.
In July, both the consumer-side CPI and the producer-side PPI showed simultaneous cooling. PPI year-over-year fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, and core PPI continued to decline, with the month-over-month increase even lower than the market's previous expectations; CPI also continued to fall, and core CPI weakened somewhat. Inflation is slowing on both the production and consumption sides, indicating that this round of inflation momentum is indeed weakening.
Not only inflation, but initial jobless claims also rose to 209,000, showing some early signs of weakness in the employment sector. Looking at this set of data alone, it actually reduces the necessity for the Fed to raise rates in September, and logically, the pressure should be much less.
But reality is not that simple. There is a clear split in views within the Federal Reserve. Harker remains tough, insisting that rate hikes are still needed now; on the other hand, Barkin holds the opposite view, believing that the current interest rate level is already sufficient to curb inflation.
On one side, there is real weakening inflation and weakening employment data; on the other side, senior officials express completely opposite statements. This internal division is the biggest uncertainty in the market right now. This means that the rate pricing for September will not be decided in one go and may fluctuate back and forth due to officials' speeches and subsequent minor data releases.
The US dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and BTC will all continue to be pulled back and forth by this set of expectations. Even if the data leans positive, it doesn't mean the market will have a one-sided trend; oscillation and volatility will be the norm.
Many people have already started betting that rate hikes are over, but until the Fed truly makes a decision, everything is still uncertain. I wonder how you all judge this—do you think the Fed will ultimately choose to raise rates in September, or hold steady?$BTC is moving like a market with no conviction. Price is trapped in a narrow range, with $62,850 acting as the short-term lifeline and $64,000 as heavy resistance. If $62,850 holds, this is simply consolidation and time passing. If it breaks decisively, another move lower becomes more likely. Above $64K, I would be cautious with breakouts unless fresh volume actually enters. In a weak market, low-volume rallies can easily become liquidity traps. And this is where many traders are making the sa$BTC Still fluctuating around $63,000, Formula News founder Vida chose to cut one-third of his position.
He does not believe Bitcoin will not have another bull market, but rather judges that this wait could be long.
His plan is to buy it back within the next 1 to 3 years, hoping to buy it back for $45,000 to $55,000.
The core reason is that market attention has already been stolen by AI.
Compared to the constant emergence of new AI models, products, and massive funding, Bitcoin currently has very few new stories to tell.
The most significant narrative remaining is still hedging against fiat currency depreciation, dollar credit, and U.S. Treasury risks.
But these narratives may not fully erupt in the short term.
Before a real currency crisis arrives, global assets may actually undergo a repricing first, making it difficult for Bitcoin to remain unaffected.
However, betting entirely on the dollar or US Treasury bonds in the next bull market is somewhat absolute ｜
ETF funding, global liquidity shifts, regulatory improvements, and institutional allocation may also revive demand growth.
$45,000 to $55,000 is just Vida's personal expectation, not something the market will inevitably encounter.
It feels like this event truly reflects that the crypto market is losing the certainty of "waiting for the narrative to return" that it once had.
As AI becomes the new favorite of capital, $BTC must not only fight against macro pressures but also compete for limited funds and attention.
#加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? $JD The core of this Q2 report is the simultaneous pressure on revenue and profit recovery. Revenue declined 2.9% year-on-year, but operating profit turned positive, with improvements in net profit attributable to shareholders, free cash flow, and losses from new businesses. The market will need to judge not only whether profits can continue to improve but also when retail revenue will return to a more stable growth trajectory. Let's look at the core data: JD.com's Q2 revenue was 346.401 billion yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year, with the company explaining that this was mainly due to a high base in the same period last year. GAAP operating profit was 4.547 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 859 million yuan in the same period last year; Net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.129 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders reached 8.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%; Diluted earnings per ADS were 5.01 yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year. Revenue slightly declined, but margins and profit margins improved, which was the main contrast this quarter. Service revenue continued to grow, with goods revenue at 267.115 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year; Service revenue was 79.286 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year. Among them, platform and marketing revenue grew by 8.3%, while logistics and other services revenue increased by 5.9%. Structurally, the fastest-growing revenue remains platform, advertising, and service revenue, which usually have better profit margins and explain why JD Retail's profit margins continue to improve even when total revenue is under pressure.After OKB completes its tokenomics adjustment in 2025, its supply will be permanently capped at 21 million, a figure equal to Bitcoin's total supply. Currently, OKB's price is fluctuating around $85, but market attention has shifted from the price itself to changes in its supply-demand structure. OKB also serves as the native gas token of the X Layer network, meaning every transaction on-chain generates actual consumption demand for OKB, creating a potential value leverage effect between fixed supply and growing demand. But scarcity alone is not enough to support the token's long-term value foundation. Market analysts point out that the core variables determining OKB's value are the user scale, number of transactions, total value locked (TVL), and total gas consumption in the X Layer ecosystem. If the X Layer ecosystem continues to expand and on-chain activity continues to rise, the 21 million supply cap will give OKB stronger value capture capabilities; Conversely, if ecosystem development stagnates, supply scarcity alone cannot sustain the price center. Currently, the market sentiment toward OKB is mainly focused on demand-side validation. Investors are closely watching whether X Layer can continue to attract developers and liquidity in the Layer 2 competitive landscape, as well as the actual usage frequency of OKB in cross-chain interoperability scenarios. In the short term, OKB's price may fluctuate with the broader market, but its structural valuation logic has shifted from a purely deflationary narrative to a phase of ecosystem fundamental verification. $OKB #Layer2 #CryptoIt multiplied 27 times, smoothly taking profits, and finally cashed in
Many people mocked me, calling it an ant warehouse
$SNDK Open 1U, several U positions
Actually, I want to say: I've always been a loser
However, ant warehouses can actually make a lot of money
I believe trading is not closely related to principal
The core is having its own consistently stable trading system
Early on, if your capital is low, you can play slowly, just for a longer time.
As a full-time trader, 1,000 U or 10,000 U of principal is actually enough.
Sometimes money comes too fast, and it's easy to get carried away. In this circle, I believe many people, like me, have suffered many such losses.
The crypto world is already very restless; only by learning not to lose money, surviving, and progressing step by step can you win.
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus 当单次推理消耗下降，更多业务开始调用 AI，反而可能换来更大的调用总量。 原报告：Morgan Stanley Research《Weighing In: Open-Weights Models & 3 States of the World》，2026 年 8 月 3 日 编译及整理：DaiDai、Frank，MSX 麦通研究院 核心速览 开放权重模型降低的是单次调用成本和部署门槛，不一定降低总算力需求，随着 AI 进入更多企业、工作流与设备，调用量的增长可能超过效率提升，触发典型的「杰文斯悖论」； 企业已经进入多模型时代，开放权重模型主要承担编程、文档处理、高频调用和特定领域任务，复杂推理与 Agent 工作负载仍更多依赖前沿闭源模型； 开放权重并不等于免费，企业省下的可能是模型授权费或部分 API 费用，但仍需承担 GPU、云服务、本地机房、微调、人才、安全和运维成本； 无论闭源、混合还是开放权重模型最终占据主导，NVIDIA、现场电力与安全软件都属于较明确的跨情景受益方向； 开放权重模型越普及，AI 价值链越可能从基础模型层，向推理、路由、编排、可观测性、本地基础设施、边缘设备Yesterday, Master Ye's big cake was sold at 63,900 for public support.
When the market is still hoping for further gains, I choose to look at the risks first.
Afterwards, the price fell steadily, hitting a low near 62,800, and the space above 1,000 points was once again realized.
Many people prefer to wait for the market to come out before analyzing.
But real trading is about planning ahead before the market hesitates.
What he gained over nine years of trading wasn't courage, but an understanding of position and rhythm.
Others see ups and downs; I see the next wave of market sentiment. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points expected to heat up #闪迪投资者日后, making long-term targets the focus #闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
Impressive $SNDK Investor Day Background: The previous dilemma of "rising earnings but falling stock price."
The reason SanDisk's investor day attracted such intense market attention was directly due to the abnormal stock price movement after the earnings report. In the previous quarter, SanDisk delivered a truly explosive financial report: quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; adjusted earnings per share were $39.25, down from just $0.29 a year ago; gross margin soared to 84.6%, even surpassing Apple. However, after the earnings were released, the stock price fell 12% in two days, sharply falling from its June high.
The core logic behind market concerns is very simple—the NAND storage industry is known for its strong cyclical nature, and the "too good to be true" earnings have instead triggered panic over a "cycle peak." This Investor Day is a key window for management to directly counter these doubts and re-anchor market expectations.
SanDisk's 2026 Investor Day delivered a report card that shocked Wall Street: targets for 80% gross margin, 75% operating profit margin, and 50% free cash flow margin for FY2028-30, combined with the underlying support of $94 billion in long-term NBM contracts, $15.5 billion in buyback quotas, and a commitment to 100% excess cash flow returns to shareholders, together driving the stock price to surge, nearly 14% in a single day. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens, raising expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8,000 points $AMAT Revenue for the latest fiscal quarter surpassed $9.1 billion, and even more notably, profit growth far outpaced revenue, bringing market divisions over the semiconductor cycle into the spotlight.
Financial reports show that net profit in the third quarter surged 43% year-on-year, with advanced process and packaging products driving GAAP gross margin up to 50.3%, marking 13 consecutive quarters of year-on-year improvement.
Risk appetite on the capital level has rapidly risen, with the semiconductor systems business contributing $7.04 billion in a single quarter, driving institutional positions toward equipment leaders with certain operating leverage.
The unexpectedly expanded gross margin confirmed the real premium for advanced process demand, with macroinflationary pressures and high capital expenditures temporarily taking a back seat under the pressure of forced pricing power.
The path to further strength lies in downstream wafer fab capital expenditure budgets continuing to be revised upward. Once order visibility extends into the coming quarters, the valuation center is likely to undergo a systemic re-evaluation.
The downside risk lies in macro demand fluctuations being transmitted to chip manufacturers. If major customers slow down their capacity expansion pace causing delayed equipment deliveries, it will directly disrupt the continuous improvement pace of high gross margins.
If the year-on-year improvement in gross margin stalls in a single quarter, the current long position logic supported by operating leverage will become ineffective.
The most noteworthy variable to watch in the coming week is the revision of capital expenditure guidance for the next fiscal year by leading downstream wafer fabs.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another$EDEN In the $0.077 to $0.08 range, there is a contradiction between severe distortion in the derivative chip structure and insufficient spot liquidity. Derivatives short squeezes and long positions taking profits intertwine, causing the short-term market to enter a state of high volatility and disconnection.
From market facts, $EDEN rose 55% in 24 hours, with the price rising from $0.04 to $0.077-0.08, and open interest expanding significantly. The funding rate has turned negative, and the long-short ratio has dropped to 0.65, reflecting a large amount of contract funds concentrating short positions after the main rally.
This round of liquidity-driven transmission sequence is reflected in: main funds push up spot prices, triggering follow-up trading, followed by a sharp increase in derivatives holdings, and shorts use negative rate games to establish hedging positions. A low 40% liquidity rate corresponds to about 210 million RMB in market value. The relatively small circulating market base amplifies the flexibility of funds during the rally, but it also means that once the depth of spot market support weakens, the slippage in selling will sharply increase.
The trigger for an upward scenario is whether spot buying can continue to consume short positions. If the funding rate remains negative and spot buying remains above $0.077, the 0.65 long-short ratio will force short closing and a squeeze to push prices up again. At this point, close observation is needed to see if open interest remains at a high level of rally; if open interest and spot trading volume fall in tandem, the squeeze logic fails.
The trigger for a downside scenario lies in the liquidity gap caused by spot chasing high and the release of profit-taking selling pressure. If the price drops below $0.08, the hedging demand from negative rates will turn into active downward pressure, triggering a deep pullback. At this point, monitoring for a rapid drop in open interest and a price below $0.07 indicates that major funds have exited.
The failure condition for judging an overall bearish bias is: after the spot buying rally, there is no liquidity gap; instead, external compliant funds are steadily entering to increase holdings. As long as government bond yield expectations remain stable and the scale of lock-up increases exponentially, short-term derivatives pressure will be directly absorbed by fundamental capital flows.
After small-cap stocks experience a pulse-like surge, the crowding in the derivatives market often precedes price peaks. In a situation where liquidity contraction is highly prone to a sharp contraction, what is the real willingness of spot buyers to take the position?
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, the most important variable to watch is whether the funding rate can return to neutral, whether the long-short ratio rises above 1.0 again, and whether there is significant order withdrawal in spot order depth around $0.077.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens, with expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points heating up#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens Currently, the market and most analysts tend to keep rates unchanged. If inflation rises again in August or employment unexpectedly remains strong, the probability of a rate hike will increase; otherwise, it will be further delayed. The annual path may be "0-1 rate hikes," with the Fed in a "hawkish balance" mode: patiently waiting for more evidence. Both CPI and PPI have cooled $BTC still hasn't shown a major direction, while $XAUT is slowly rising. Crypto stocks have been dropping at the open and slowly recovering during the day.Brothers, what I lost to wasn't the market, but my own eagerness to make money.
Honestly, the hardest part of trading isn't finding the right direction, but whether you can control your hand once you're right.
I held a short position of 64,721 for a few days, and now I do have some profit, so I have taken some profit. But this time I kept reminding myself: don't be like before.
I used to do this kind of thing all the time—just making a profit, then running away, then watching the market continue in the direction I predicted, leaving only a few points of room for dozens of points. If you pick the right direction, your rhythm is all wrong.
For this order, I decided to give it a bit more time and not get off so early.
I still don't think I can hold up at 63,300. If the rebound remains weak next, I'll focus on around 62,800.
By the way, let's talk about a few others:
· OKB is still the tough one, with steady prices.
· ETH, to be honest, is quite tricky. Right now, I prefer to wait until it has a clear direction before doing it, rather than rushing to chase it.
· Sentiment on SPACEX's side is still very volatile, with all the ups and downs driven by news.
· SNDK gave me a wake-up call—AI-related stocks start to fall much faster than you might think.
So my biggest insight now is:
Good trades, don't rush; Bad trades, don't take them on. Never let emotions place orders for you.
Sometimes, the hardest battle isn't market fluctuations, but the voice in your heart that wants to leave early 📉🔥
#BTC #OKB #ETH #SPACEX #SNDK #CPI #PPI
#星球日报 "SOL ecosystem meme total market capitalization approaching DOGE"? Let's settle the accounts first. On the morning of August 14, 2026, DOGE was priced at $0.0702, with a market capitalization of approximately $10.87 billion. Looking at the "encirclement army": BONK is at $0.000019, with a market cap of $1.71 billion; WIF is at $0.14, down to just $140 million; POPCAT is even worse, with a market cap of less than $50 million, having retraced over 90% from its peak. The three combined are less than $2 billion, which is only about 18% of DOGE's total. The so-called "close" doesn't even count as a fraction. If this had been said at the end of 2024, it would still be valid. At that time, WIF's market cap surpassed $4 billion, BONK was above $4 billion, POPCAT reached $2 billion, and Solana-based memes truly reached half of DOGE's market cap. Stories of "new kings replacing old kings" are everywhere, with DOGE treated as relics of the previous cycle. Two years have passed—who has been besieged and suppressed? WIF fell 96% from its peak, POPCAT fell 97%, and BONK shrank by more than half; DOGE, often criticized as "old, slow, and lacking an ecosystem," still holds a market cap of $10.8 billion, sitting at the top spot among memes. The logic behind this is simple: Meme coins ultimately compete not in story, but in terms of liquidity depth and cycle survivability. DOGE has survived for 13 years, weathering three bull and bear cycles, has the industry's deepest order book, covers all exchanges, and will be recognized as digital by the SEC and CFTC in March 2026CPI is positive but the market isn't rising? The triple squeeze of the Federal Reserve + geopolitical + institutional selling pressure means those who understand won't be swept off
These days, many people have been asking the same question: CPI has clearly cooled down, and US stocks are rising, so why is the crypto market stagnant?
US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, with consecutive declines, fully meeting expectations. The Nasdaq surged 0.54%, AI chips and cloud computing surged, and US risk assets surged across the board. But BTC only surged 0.3% before retreating, ETH struggled to follow, and the entire crypto market seemed to fall asleep.
It's not that the market is malfunctioning; it's that you haven't understood what's happening in the macro environment.
📊 Core truth: The positive news has long been priced in in advance
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $854 million, marking one of the strongest fundraising performances since May. Expectations of a cooling CPI have long been anticipated by institutions in advance, and when the data actually materializes, it turns into "all the good news has been released." That's why you see "good news," but the market is not rising.
📊 Triple pressures are quietly suppressing the market
First: Geopolitical conflicts are heating up, and funds are turning to gold for safe havens
Geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate, Iran has stated it may block the strait until 2029, and WTI crude oil has risen to $83.75 per barrel. Gold has directly broken through $4,500, hitting a two-month high. What is global capital doing? Buying gold, buying oil, buying safe-haven assets. As a risk asset, the crypto market is the first to be avoided by capital.
This isn't a problem with BTC or ETH; it's the entire macro environment forcing capital to make choices.
Second: The Fed has entered a "policy fog," with uncertainty premiums soaring
This is the easiest to overlook, but perhaps the most critical point.
Since Kevin Wash took office, the Fed has made it clear its discomfort with traditional "forward-looking guidance" and has begun to question whether guidance still applies to the current environment. In other words, the era of "you believe whatever the Fed says" is over. Policy has become unpredictable, and markets have lost the "map" they once relied on for navigation.
When central banks reduce the precision of signal communication, the market demands a higher uncertainty premium. This means: higher interest rate volatility, a stronger dollar, tighter financial conditions. For cryptocurrencies, such a highly volatile asset, this environment is naturally unfavorable.
Third: Institutions are reducing positions, and selling pressure is real
After selling 1,690 BTC last week, leading institution Strategy raised $653 million through a stock issuance, bringing its total BTC holdings to 840,447 BTC. Crucially, the average holding price of the institution reached $75,385, indicating deep unrealized losses overall, with potential selling pressure from continued position reduction and stop-loss in the future.
It's like a big ship slowly turning around—just as the bow has passed, there's still momentum behind it. Institutional portfolio reduction isn't something that happens overnight; it's a continuous, structured outflow.
📊 Big Picture: The crypto market is undergoing a period of "macro desensitization"
Previously, good CPI data = crypto surges, but now that formula doesn't work. The reason is simple: the market has entered a "policy vacuum." Expectations for rate cuts have not fully formed, geopolitical risks remain, and the regulatory bill vote has been postponed to September. There is not enough incremental logic to support a market rebound, which is why the market remains "indifferent" after the CPI is implemented.
But that doesn't mean the crypto market is hopeless. On the contrary—when macro logic temporarily stalls, it's actually when on-chain fundamentals quietly accumulate momentum. ETH staking queues are still queuing, whales are still accumulating, and institutions' long-term allocation logic hasn't changed.
📈 My judgment
In the short term, BTC may continue to fluctuate between 63,000 and 65,000 for some time. Don't expect a big bullish candlestick to take off immediately, nor panic just because it doesn't rise.
A real market turnaround requires two conditions: first, a reduction in geopolitical risks; second, a clear signal from the Federal Reserve about cutting rates. Neither of these conditions is currently in place.
But that's not a reason to be bearish. It's a reason to stay patient, control your position, and avoid being washed out.
💬 Let's talk in the comments:
With CPI positive news not rising, do you think it's "all the good news is being released" or "ready to take off"? Share your judgment 🫡 in the comments
$BTC $ETH
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens, with expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points heating up On August 14, Goldman Sachs released a report stating that SMIC's second-quarter revenue was $3 billion, up 36% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the bank's and market expectations and exceeding management's guidance of 14% to 16% quarter-on-quarter growth. The gross margin for the period was 25.3%, higher than the bank and market expectations of 21% and 21.4%, and also above management's guidance range of 20% to 22%.
Goldman Sachs stated that quarterly revenue growth was mainly driven by wafer shipments and higher average selling prices, with management attributing the improvement in gross margin to product mix improvements and higher average selling prices. As for the third-quarter guidance, revenue grew 2% to 4% quarter-on-quarter, in line with the bank's and market expectations; The gross margin guidance of 26% to 28% beat both the bank and market expectations.
The bank maintains a buy rating on SMIC, is positive about the company's long-term growth prospects, and believes growth is driven by increased demand from local fabless semiconductor customers and AI-related opportunities. Goldman Sachs has set a target price of HKD 135 for Hong Kong stocks.
#苹果测试长鑫存储芯片并展开初步供货谈判 $BTC $ETH $SNDK $EDEN phenomenon
In 24 hours, it surged 55%+, jumping from around 0.04 to 0.077-0.08.
Open interest has risen significantly, funding rates have just turned negative, and the long-short ratio is around 0.65, with a high proportion of short accounts.
Market value is about 210 million RMB, with a circulation rate of 40% and a total supply of 1 billion RMB.
Project Essence
OpenEden is a compliant RWA protocol with core products TBILL and USDO, distributing U.S. Treasury yields to holders.
This is not a pure narrative coin, but a project attempting to bring real-world low-risk returns on-chain.
In the current interest rate environment, government bond yields are inherently attractive, and the RWA sector has long attracted institutional attention.
1. Short-term sentiment-driven This kind of rally comes too quickly, with volume and positions expanding simultaneously, typical capital inflow. A negative funding rate indicates more bears or bulls taking advantage of the rally to start hedging. Profit-taking can occur at any time in the short term.
2. Mid-term Perspective on Real Implementation The core of RWAs is not the price increase, but rather:
• Has the actual value locked (TVL) continued to grow?
• Whether government bond yields have been distributed stably
• Whether the compliance framework can withstand regulatory scrutiny: If this data doesn't keep up, prices will eventually revert.
3. Valuation Perspective Current market cap is not exaggerated, but the circulating supply is relatively controllable. What truly determines the ceiling is how many real government bond yield users it can capture and whether it can create network effects among more chains and institutions.
4. Risk points
• Downward interest rate cycles will compress the attractiveness of government bond yields
• Compliance and custody risks are always present
• Pullbacks after surges are often very deep, especially for small-cap stocks
In a word
EDEN is currently rising due to expectations of "RWA + compliance + government bond yields." The real value lies in whether it can retain real returns and users later.
In the short term, you can gauge sentiment; in the medium term, you must focus on data and implementation.
Keep your position light—don't treat pulses as trends.SOL, XRP, and DOGE have all entered institutional products, so why hasn't the altcoin season arrived automatically?
The product lists of traditional asset management and crypto asset management institutions are rapidly expanding, with tokens like $SOL, $XRP, and $DOGE gradually gaining trading products or being incorporated into multi-asset strategies. Based on previous experience, this kind of news was enough to make the market shout about the altcoin season, but now capital is clearly more selective.
The reason is that "can buy" is completely different from "worth holding long-term." Productization solves compliant entry points, custody, and transaction convenience, but does not automatically generate network revenue. Once institutions obtain the entry point, they will compare more carefully: can SOL's trading activity accumulate into stablecoins and high-value assets, whether XRP's payment narrative can generate verifiable growth, and whether DOGE's cultural flow can be converted into long-term use.
This is also why, after the emergence of multi-asset products, the differentiation among altcoins may become even greater. In the past, retail investors rotated by sector, and funds easily spilled out from BTC; But actively managed institutions could increase the weighting of BTC and ETH, while constantly reducing token allocations lacking fundamental support.
The knockoff season doesn't automatically happen just because the product list is longer; it still requires three things to work together: loose liquidity, rising risk appetite, and real growth. The institutional entry only fixes the arena; it can't finish any event.
Entering ETFs or multi-asset products is like getting a ticket; Whether you can stay in a portfolio is the real recognition from institutions.#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen. US macro data over the past two days looks very comfortable. In July, CPI fell year-on-year from 3.5% to 3.4%, while core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%; On a month-on-month basis, CPI rose only 0.1%, while core prices rose by 0.2%. Immediately after, the PPI surprised the market: the final demand PPI for July showed zero month-on-month growth, quickly falling from 5.5% year-on-year to 4.7%. If you only look at the headline, it's easy to conclude: inflation is cooling, the Fed is turning dovish, and risk assets continue to rise. But standing at the trading table, I wouldn't do that. Because what truly changes this round of data is not "when the Fed will cut rates," nor even "whether the Fed will raise rates again," but a more subtle but very important question for asset pricing: Is the Fed still necessary to raise rates immediately in September? My answer is quite clear: necessity is rapidly declining. And this is the biggest macro trading in the market right now. This is not a rate cut trade, but a "rate hike delay trade." Let's first look at the odds. After the PPI was released, the probability that interest rate futures would maintain the policy rate range of 3.50%–3.75% in September rose to about 67.6%, while the probability of a rate hike in September dropped to 32.4%. A day ago, it was 40.6%, and a week ago, it was as high as 55%. This change is very important. Because the recent suppression of risk assets is not just "very high US interest rates," but the market has begun to worry whether the Fed will hold back its already high interest rates#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
Last night, during US trading hours, Sandisk surged as much as 17% and closed up 13.67%, strongly boosting the entire storage sector to recover, with giants like SK Hynix and Micron following suit. Unfortunately, I previously positioned short positions and am currently in a tough trapped phase. After learning from the pain, here is a summary of the causes and consequences of this surge.
1. Tipping point: Investor Day releases strong forward expectations
1. Performance guidance beats expectations: Management has set targets for 2028-2030, expecting revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, long-term gross margin targeting 80%, and free cash flow margin target of 50%. This move directly led analysts to raise their profit forecasts.
2. Generous Returns to Shareholders: Promises to return 100% of the remaining cash flow to shareholders (dividends + buybacks) after capacity investment is completed. This completely alleviates market anxiety about its blind expansion disrupting supply-demand balance.
3. AI inference brings new growth: The company is optimistic about AI's transition from training to inference stages, believing this will ignite demand for flash memory. It is expected that by 2030, the enterprise flash market will expand significantly, and the implementation of HBF high-bandwidth flash technology has also opened up the valuation ceiling.
2. Underlying logic: Oversold recovery meets macro tailwinds
1. Short stamping to cover: After the previous earnings report, the market worried that the storage cycle had peaked, leading to consecutive declines in stock prices and accumulating a large amount of short interest. With this sudden wave of positive news, bears were forced to close positions in concentrated fashion, amplifying the gains.
2. Improved macro liquidity: US PPI below expectations + CPI in line with expectations cooled market bets on the Fed's recent rate hikes. Marginal liquidity in growth stocks is loose, and capital is flowing back into the AI hardware sector.
3. Long-term contract orders reshape valuations: 3-5 year long-term supply agreements lock in future revenue, weakening the strong cyclical nature of the storage industry, and the market is willing to offer more stable central valuations.
3. Risk Warning (Don't Get Carried Away)
1. Event-driven nature is clear: A large single-day bullish candlestick is more likely driven by news, with heavy selling pressure for short-term profit-taking. Today's market volatility before and after the market will be very volatile, so beware of surges and pullbacks.
2. Positive news partially delivered: These are long-term plans for three years from now. Short-term quarterly earnings have not been raised, and sentiment has already priced in some of the positive news.
3. High external dependence: The storage sector remains heavily influenced by US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policies. If hawkish rhetoric returns, the sector could be pressured and pull back at any time.
4. Key points for market outlook
1. Rebound Sustainability: Watch whether it can hold above the current rebound's high. If it quickly falls back to the starting level, that's a typical pulse market—don't chase highs.
2. Sector synergy effect: Closely monitor whether SK Hynix and Micron can achieve sustained resonant rises; this is the key to deeper market development.
$SNDK The better the data looks, the more anxious I become. CPI 3.4, PPI 4.7, month-on-month changes of 0.1 and 0.
Pretty good, right? The probability of a rate hike in September has jumped straight to 34%, and the whole internet is once again calling for the rate hike cycle to end.
But if you break down the PPI: energy down 3.1% month-on-month, food down 0.9%, and overall goods down 0.7%. This wave of cooling was half the burden of oil prices. The core PPI dropped from 4.7 to 4.2, but excluding trade and services, it was still 4.7% year-on-year, +0.4% month-on-month, showing that services inflation hasn't relaxed at all.
Even more subtle, at the start of August, BZ Brent jumped directly from 79 to 89, the Iranian parliament just passed a navigation ban bill across the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis bombed Saudi refineries. If next month's PPI recovers the July cut, all current optimistic expectations will have to be rewritten.
Even the Federal Reserve itself doesn't believe this data. At the July meeting, the vote was 9 to 3, with three votes directly demanding a rate hike—the differences are worse than the numbers. If the trend were really clear, would they really need to argue like this?
$BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $865 million last week, the largest single week since April. And the result? The price was still just over 60,000 yuan, with selling pressure above like a mountain. What does this mean? Some people are selling off on good news, and the volume is not small.
$ETH Not to mention, it's just sitting below 1900, barely making a splash. We're still arguing about staking rewards being cut—weak technically, bad fundamentals, and unwilling funds.
$SNDK is actually the most honest stock. SanDisk's tokenized stock on Solana absorbed all the 7x24 hours of PPI volatility that night, and after the US market closed, it was still running. It felt great when it rose, but when it crashed, it fell 24 hours a day, with no opening buffer. Solana's RWA locked was already 2.8 billion, and the neighboring company also saw tokenized stock conversion in the past couple of days. This sector isn't just speculation—there are real people trading.
September 15 is the real highlight — the first day of the FOMC meeting, and the Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY bill is scheduled for the same day, so these two major events overlap. For the rest of this month, if you're heading in the wrong direction, don't panic—don't chase rallies or sell-offs. Don't add positions above 63,000. Keep your BTC and ETH holdings, and if you want to play some excitement, grab some SNDK, but keep your positions well and don't waste your living expenses on it.
It's pure communication, don't take it as advice. Data can be deceiving, but positions don't.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened Current Price: $XAUT 4,304.30
Key Moving Averages (1D): MA5 ($4,354.10) | MA10 ($4,325.00) | MA20 ($4,192.20)
🔍 Old Ups and Downs (Chart History)
* Summer Low: Bounced off a base of $3,963.40 around July 20, 2026.
* Strong Rally: Rallied sharply through early August 2026, breaking past $4,100 and $XAUT 4,300 on strong buying momentum.
* Recent Peak: Hit a local high of $4,427.60 around August 11, 2026.
* Current Move: Pulling back slightly (-0.81%) to test support between the 10-day ($4,325) and 20-day ($4,192) moving averages.
🚀 Short-Term Prediction
> Assumptions: This prediction assumes stable demand for gold as a safe-haven asset and steady global economic conditions. Tokenized commodities can experience short-term volatility based on macroeconomic news, and past moves do not guarantee future results.
>
* Target: $4,450 – $XAUT 4,550
* Why: The overall structure remains bullish, with the 20-day moving average ($4,192.20) sloping upward. Once the current pullback finishes consolidating above $4,250, a retest of the $4,427.60 peak is expected.
* Support (Safety Zone): $4,180 – $4,220
* Why: The MA20 ($4,192.20) acts as the main safety net for buyers during dips.
🏆 Best Prediction of All Time (Macro Target)
* Macro Target: $5,500 – $6,000+
* Why: XAUT reached an all-time peak near $5,500 – $5,600 during peak gold demand cycles. Driven by long-term central bank gold purchases, inflation hedging, and global economic uncertainties, a return to the $5,500–$6,000 zone remains the major long-term upside objective. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen. Everyone, last night's PPI data was also released, consistent with the CPI direction.
In July, PPI year-on-year fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, and core PPI dropped from 4.7% to 4.2%, both below expectations. With initial jobless claims rising to 209,000, both production and consumer inflation cooling simultaneously, making a rate hike in September less urgent. But there is still debate within the Fed: Hamack says more will be raised, and Barkin says current rates may already be sufficient. Inflation has fallen, but not fast enough, and no one agrees with the other. It's true that inflation momentum is slowing, but policy judgments remain divided, and the market will still be torn between these two expectations in the short term.
The probability of a rate hike in September has dropped again; currently, CME shows about a 57% chance of no rate hike and a 43% chance of a rate hike. This is slightly better than the 50-50 opening before the CPI data, but still not very certain. The Fed has yet to reach a consensus, and the market has not formed one-sided expectations. This tug-of-war is very likely to continue before the September meeting.
For BTC, the cooling inflation data is positive, but not to the extent that the market fully reassured the market about rate cuts. The market may continue to fluctuate around 65,000, and more data is needed to confirm the direction. The approach remains the same: no chasing highs, no heavy positions, waiting for the Fed's stance to become clearer.
Everyone, both CPI and PPI have fallen, and the probability of a rate hike in September is also declining, but it's not yet at the point where a rate cut can be confirmed. At this level, it's best to treat it as a fluctuation and not rush to take large positions. What do you all think about the upcoming policy path? Let's talk in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading $BTC $ETH $SNDK 4 billion turned into 3 trillion, Harmony needs to roll back—do you support changing the ledger, or accept losses?
If your banking system is hacked and trillions of bills suddenly appear out of nowhere, and the bank says, "Let's revert the ledger, everyone pretends it never happened"—would you support that?
Most people might say: I support it, why should hackers make money?
But what if I say this bank is called "blockchain"?
Do you still support it?
On August 12, the long-established public chain Harmony ran into trouble.
On-chain analyst Juiceberg was the first to discover: someone exploited the "empty block" vulnerability to mint about 4 billion ONE tokens out of thin air.
This accounts for 26% of the total supply.
Of these, about 2.8 billion coins were quickly transferred to major exchanges.
ONE's price once plunged more than 50%.
Things have already exploded, haven't they?
But even more explosive things were yet to come.
CertiK monitoring shows that the number of anomalous minted ONE has exceeded 3 trillion, involving six anomalous blocks.
4 billion, now 3 trillion.
26%, which becomes 2000%. You read that right.
Harmony's total supply was originally about 15 billion coins. Now, there has been an extra 3 trillion out of thin air.
The entire tokenomics collapsed overnight.
Harmony responded quickly:
Emergency deployment of patch v2026.1.1 to prevent further minting
Pause of cross-chain bridges
The United Exchange froze funds for four wallet addresses
Most importantly: on-chain rollback plans are being advanced
What does rollback mean?
This means restoring the entire chain to its state before the attack.
It's equivalent to wiping out all transactions after August 12—including legitimate transfers from innocent users, DeFi operations, and DEX trading.
Benefit: Hackers' efforts were wasted, and 3 trillion ONE disappeared from the ledger. Cost: The phrase "immutable" in blockchain has since become a joke.
This reminds me of The DAO incident in 2016.
Ethereum was hacked with 3.6 million ETH, and Vitalik chose a hard fork rollback to return the tokens to investors.
And what happened?
Ethereum split.
On one side is the rollback Ethereum (ETH), on the other is the insistence on the immutable Ethereum Classic (ETC).
Ten years have passed, and supporters on both sides are still arguing.
But today, Harmony is facing an even more extreme situation than The DAO—
The DAO is "If your money is stolen, I'll help you get it back."
Harmony is "The money is printed out, I tear up the ledger and rewrite it."
The former is about recovering stolen assets, while the latter is directly altering history. So the question returns to the beginning—
Do you support rollback?
Those who support rollback will say:
3 trillion ONE tokens appeared out of thin air, ruining the tokenomics
Without rollback, holders' assets are diluted by 2000%. Is that fair?
Hackers make a fortune—why?
The project team is responsible for protecting user interests
Those who oppose rollback will say:
The core value of blockchain is immutability
If you can roll back once today, you can roll back a second time tomorrow
Then I'd rather just deposit it in the bank—at least bank changes require approval
You keep talking about "decentralization," and that's it?
Both voices have their reasons.
But the most painful truth is—no matter what you choose, someone will get hurt.
Rollback: Innocent users' normal transactions after August 12 are wiped out. No rollback: All ONE holders' assets are diluted into scrap paper. No winners.
Even more heartbreaking—
This isn't the first time Harmony has had trouble.
In 2022, Harmony's cross-chain bridge was hacked by North Korea, resulting in a loss of about $100 million.
At that time, the community helped track the funds, but the project team didn't give them a cent, only saying, "Well done."
So this time, the well-known on-chain detective ZachXBT directly refused to provide free assistance.
"Last time I helped you chase after 100 million US dollars, and there wasn't even a thank-you fee. This time, no negotiation."
Trust is something that can be overdrawn once and it's gone.
As of August 13, Harmony has reached consensus with validators and exchanges on rollback paths, and the patch has been activated.
Rollback, most likely to be executed.
But the real impact of this event goes far beyond the price of the ONE.
It is questioning every crypto insider: do you believe in "code is law," or "the project team calls the shots"?
If code can be rolled back, laws can be changed—
So, what are the differences between blockchain and traditional finance?
Do you support Harmony rollback?
If one day your heavily invested project encounters the same issue, how would you handle it?$SNDK As expected, knockoffs are still quite violent!
Can SanDisk return to around 1400? Was this asked by fans who got stuck last night? On the 7th, I wanted to say the market trend is very difficult!
Overall, the high market value of 2373 plummeted to 972, wiping out nearly 100 billion in market value! The so-called bubble valuation is about the same!
The main reason for the previous decline was a valuation bubble, but now that the August earnings report is out, the market has turned a blind eye, with a 372% year-on-year increase in revenue, completely crushing expectations!
Actually, the main reason for the rise is that SanDisk signed an important agreement last night, the Investor Day! (Currently, there are already 8 core clients) It is precisely these long-term agreements that have brought SanDisk stable returns, directly dispelling market concerns about the savings sector!
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widened with #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points rising expectations $SPCX CPI从3.5降到3.4 核心CPI从2.6降到2.5 PPI从5.5降到4.7 初请失业金也超预期了 全是利好 但BTC就是不涨 问题出在四个字 符合预期$BTC $ETH $SNDK CPI同比3.4%精准命中 核心CPI2.5%精准命中 PPI环比持平低于预期 数据全在预料之内 市场最怕的就是没惊喜 好是好了 但没有好到让美联储必须转向鸽派 也没有差到需要紧急转向鹰派 刚好卡在中间 等于没给方向 Bitget Research首席分析师说得直白 符合预期的CPI数据 既不会让鹰派重新定价 也没提供明确的鸽派催化剂 翻译成人话 数据不够差 美联储不用急着降息 数据不够好 也不用急着加息 这份数据只做了一件事 给美联储买了时间 9月加息概率从50%降到35%左右 暂停加息概率超过60% 但市场要的不是暂停加息 要的是降息 暂停只是歇口气 降息才是发令枪 现在市场拿到的是暂停键 离扣动扳机还差得远 更扎心的是交易量已经跌到2019年以来最低水平 Glassnode原话是对好消息的疲弱反应本身就是一种警告 说明需求真的消失了 买家不进场 卖家在6.5万等着出货 约179万枚BTC持仓成$SNDK On August 13, East US Investor Day, the company issued very aggressive medium- to long-term guidance, directly stimulating capital inflow:
It is forecasted that in fiscal years 2028-2030, revenue will achieve mid-to-high double-digit growth; Adjusted gross margin will approach 80%, and free cash flow margin will be 50%.
After completing business capital expenditures, it promises to return all excess cash to shareholders (dividends + buybacks) to attract institutional funds.
Key argument: AI inference will trigger massive storage demand, greatly expanding the enterprise flash market space. By using long-term customer order lock-ups, it can weaken the traditional cyclical crash risk in the storage industry and dispel concerns about a "boom."
Good news keeps coming now. It's a pity that U was trapped by XRP earlier. I wanted to buy SanDisk earlier, #S&P$closes hits a new high, and expectations for 8000 points are heating up The bears were truly silenced this time! The original 34% short position dropped to just 11%. Everyone thought the bears would admit defeat and cut their losses and run, but after careful analysis of the details, it turns out that's not the case at all.
The real bulk was the end of the first lock-up period, when over 900 million circulating shares flooded into the market. The denominator suddenly grew so large that even if bears didn't sell a single share, their holdings would be diluted by two-thirds.
Plus, during the previous crash, buyers rushed in at low prices, pushing those who used stocks to short into a dead end. With more chips and passive liquidation, this iconic scene was played out. This time, rather than a big win for the bulls, it's more accurate to say that market rules have tormented the shorters!
#XSPCX空头持仓降至11%
$SPCX 8.14 Achen's 4-hour $BTC Silk Road and strategy
Trading advice: Do within a range (the market has broken through short-term support at 634, currently in a steady recovery phase with rebound trend, but at 4:0 AMCD is still below the zero line, the large cycle Bollinger Bands are closing and indicating a volatile market)
Trading range: 628-635 (overall trend downward, but bulls remain; after buying and rebounding, choose whether to short based on the trend)
Stop point: 625 (Below medium-term support, price stabilizes and then follows the trend)
Zhiying is splitting up
Zhiying: 1️639 (short-term resistance, stabilizes 🉑 after breakout and remains bullish)
Tier 2️⃣ Zhiying: 645 (after 🉑👀 Zhiying broke through and secured her position)
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion Russia Sets Quotas for Retail Crypto Purchases in September: Is This a Crackdown or an Official Opening?
When seeing "Russia restricts retail crypto trading," many people's first reaction might be: Russia is about to ban Crypto again. Actually, the direction is quite the opposite—starting September 1, Russia officially enshrines in law for the first time that ordinary retail investors can buy Crypto through regulated channels, but this door is not fully open; instead, a speed limiter is installed first.
Ordinary non-qualified investors must first pass a risk test, and can buy up to 300,000 rubles per year through a single intermediary, roughly $3600–$3700 worth of Crypto. Interestingly, this quota is per intermediary, not a total of 300,000 rubles across all accounts nationwide. Qualified investors also need to pass the test but have no such amount limit.
So what exactly can ordinary people buy? According to the draft implementation plan announced by the Russian Central Bank on August 11, BTC, ETH, and USDT are currently listed within the scope of publicly organized trading. Why these three? The core criteria are market size, liquidity, and sufficiently long trading history. Note, this is still a draft with public consultation until August 24, so the final version may be adjusted.
Therefore, the real translation of this matter is: Russia is not telling retail investors "you can't buy coins," but rather "you can buy legally, but first take a test, have a quota, and start with large assets like BTC/ETH/USDT." Meanwhile, the ban on using Crypto to directly purchase goods and services within Russia remains. In other words, Crypto is allowed as an investment asset but not yet as everyday currency. I think this is more worth watching than simply labeling it as "bullish/bearish." Previously, a large amount of Russia's Crypto market trading happened outside the regulatory system; now banks, brokers, trading platforms, and digital custodians have formal rules to follow. Regulation is indeed tighter, but Crypto is also genuinely transitioning from a "gray area" to an official financial product.
[My Judgment] Moderately positive on BTC and ETH in the medium to long term, but hardly worth chasing short-term gains based on this news. [Scenario A] If the September rules are smoothly implemented and major Russian banks and brokers start truly offering BTC, ETH, and USDT trading access, a wave of new funds without previous formal access may emerge; [Scenario B] If the 300,000 ruble quota, testing, and platform regulation are too strict, users may continue using existing OTC channels, meaning the actual new funds from "legalization" could be much smaller than the headline suggests.
Currently, BTC is around $63,500, down about 1% in 24 hours; ETH is near $1880, also weak in 24 hours. For BTC, I continue to watch $63K support, $64K as the strong/weak boundary, and $65K confirmation; for ETH, $1850 support, $1900 strong/weak boundary, and $1950 resistance. Regulatory news can change long-term entry points, but for prices to truly strengthen, these levels must be reclaimed first. In short: Russia's previous issue was "can retail investors buy Crypto through formal channels?" Now the answer is starting to become "yes, but first take a test and there's an annual quota." This is neither a full liberalization nor a ban, but Crypto is beginning to truly enter Russia's financial regulatory system.Current Price: $OKB 101.67
Key Moving Averages (1D): MA5 ($98.77) | MA10 ($94.30) | MA20 ($90.23)
🔍 Old Ups and Downs (Chart History)
* Major Dip: Dropped to $OKB 78.63 around July 20, 2026 before starting a strong upward run.
* Consolidation Zone: Built a solid base between $84.00 and $OKB 88.00 in early August 2026.
* Recent Peak: Rallied sharply to hit a fresh local high of $105.00 on August 13, 2026.
* Current Move: Pulling back slightly (-2.10%) to test support above the 5-day moving average ($98.77).
🚀 Short-Term Prediction
> Assumptions: This prediction assumes the crypto market stays stable and buyer demand holds above key support zones. Past price actions do not guarantee future performance.
>
* Target: $110.00 – $118.00
* Why: OKB has posted solid gains (+12.94% over 7 days and +24.64% over 30 days). All moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) are sloping upward in a strong bullish order. Once the price consolidates above $100.00, it can break past $105.00 toward $110+.
* Support (Safety Zone): $94.00 – $98.00
* Why: The MA5 ($98.77) and MA10 ($94.30) provide dynamic floors if a deeper cooling-off period occurs.
🏆 Best Prediction of All Time (Macro Target)
* Macro Target: $200.00 – $250.00
* Why: OKB previously traded near its all-time peak of $228–$258 in past market cycles. With strong exchange utility, a total supply cap of 21 million tokens, and a clean breakout from its summer base ($78.63), OKB remains positioned for a multi-year retest of its historical high zone during the next major bull phase. With both CPI and PPI falling, why is BTC still holding low?
CPI fell from 3.5% to 3.4%.
Core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%.
PPI fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, below the expected 4.9%.
Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, higher than the expected 202,000.
All of them are positive.
What about BTC? Still hovering at $64,000.
It has surpassed $65,000 six times in a row, and each time it was reclaimed.
"Inflation has gone down! Good news! Charge! ”
Rushed in, then was stunned.
"Why hasn't it gone up yet?"
The problem lies in four words: meeting expectations.
CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, exactly on target. Core CPI was 2.5%, exactly on target. PPI was flat month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%.
What is the market most afraid of? The biggest fear is "no surprises."
Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee's exact words—
"CPI data in line with expectations neither forces hawks to reprice nor provides a clear dovish catalyst."
Translate into adult language:
The data is not bad enough; the Fed does not need to urgently shift to dovish (rate cuts).
The data isn't good enough, and the Fed doesn't need to urgently shift to hawkish (rate hikes).
Market expectations for September remain unchanged, and the direction has not been decided.
What exactly does this data do?
It did only one thing—buy time for the Fed.
The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 50% to around 35%. The probability of pausing rate hikes exceeded 60%.
But what the market wants is not a "pause in rate hikes."
What the market wants is "interest rate cuts." The difference is huge.
"Pause rate hikes" = Rates are still holding firm, liquidity remains tight. "Rate cuts" = The tap is on, money is coming, and BTC can fly.
One is the pause button, the other is the starting gun.
You press pause, and the runner just catches his breath. You pull the starting gun, and the person rushes out.
What is the market getting now? Pause button.
What's even more heartbreaking is that trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since 2019.
Glassnode's exact words: "A weak response to good news is itself a warning." ”
What does that mean?
This shows that demand has truly disappeared.
Buyers don't enter, sellers wait around $65,000 to sell. The holding cost for about 1.79 million BTC is concentrated in the $62,000 to $65,000 range. Every time the price rises, someone exits the uneven. If the positive news isn't big enough, then there isn't any good news.
What to watch next?
Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Federal Reserve Chair Wash may provide clues about the next steps there.
Before that—
Don't date data.
Good data doesn't necessarily mean prices will rise. Poor data won't necessarily mean prices will fall.
What the market wants is certainty in direction, not data meeting expectations.
One last thing—
When good news comes out, prices don't change—it's not about building up momentum, but about the market telling you: this good news has already been priced in.
CPI 3.4% VS BTC 64,000—this story has been told for two weeks.
Let's wait for the next story.
Do you think BTC is gathering momentum, or has the market already finished its positive news?CPI fell from 3.5% to 3.4%.
Core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%.
PPI fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, below the expected 4.9%.
Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, higher than the expected 202,000.
All of them are positive.
$BTC where? Still lying on $64,000.
It has surpassed $65,000 six times in a row, and each time it was reclaimed.
"Inflation has gone down! Good news! Charge! ”
Rushed in, then was stunned.
"Why hasn't it gone up yet?"
The problem lies in four words: meeting expectations.
CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, exactly on target. Core CPI was 2.5%, exactly on target. PPI was flat month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%.
What is the market most afraid of? The biggest fear is "no surprises."
Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee's exact words—
"CPI data in line with expectations neither forces hawks to reprice nor provides a clear dovish catalyst."
Translate into adult language:
The data is not bad enough; the Fed does not need to urgently shift to dovish (rate cuts).
The data isn't good enough, and the Fed doesn't need to urgently shift to hawkish (rate hikes).
Market expectations for September remain unchanged, and the direction has not been decided.
What exactly does this data do?
It did only one thing—buy time for the Fed.
The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 50% to around 35%. The probability of pausing rate hikes exceeded 60%.
But what the market wants is not a "pause in rate hikes."
What the market wants is "interest rate cuts."
The difference is huge.
"Pause rate hikes" = Rates are still holding firm, liquidity remains tight. "Rate cuts" = The tap is on, money arrives, and the market can soar.
One is the pause button, the other is the starting gun.
You press pause, and the runner just catches his breath. You pull the starting gun, and the person rushes out.
What is the market getting now? Pause button.
What's even more heartbreaking is that trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since 2019.
Glassnode's exact words: "A weak response to good news is itself a warning." ”
What does that mean?
This shows that demand has truly disappeared.
Buyers don't enter, sellers wait around $65,000 to sell. About 1.79 million $BTC holding costs are concentrated in the $62,000 to $65,000 range. Every time the price rises, someone breaks evenly and exits.
The positive news isn't big enough, just no good news.
What to watch next?
Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Federal Reserve Chair Wash may provide clues about the next steps there.
Before that—
Don't date data.
Good data doesn't necessarily mean prices will rise. Poor data won't necessarily mean prices will fall.
What the market wants is certainty in direction, not data meeting expectations.
One last thing—
When good news comes out, prices don't change—it's not about building up momentum, but about the market telling you: this good news has already been priced in.
CPI 3.4% VS $BTC 64,000—this story has been going on for two weeks.
Let's wait for the next story.
Do you think they're gathering energy, or #
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another