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$BCH The order book around 220.9 for BCH is really strange, with shrinking volume but the buy and sell walls repeatedly pushing, a typical manipulator shaking out short-term chips. The K-line bottom shows continuous volume support, clearly funds are accumulating. Now, chasing in is a bet on whether it breaks the previous high or a bull trap? I have an idea in mind, but my position isn't heavy. As usual, don't go all in; exit if it falls below 218. What do you think—is this a setup or a bull trap? Leave a signal in the comments if you're on the same page. 👇👇👇$3.37 BILLION LIQUIDATED IN 24 HOURS.
Crypto just witnessed a MASSIVE liquidation event.
•194,548 traders liquidated
•$3.07B = Long liquidations
•$298M = Short liquidations
•Biggest single liquidation: $48.8M BTC position
The leverage has been flushed.
Is this the bottom… or just the beginning?
$BTC $ETH Saturday night session, we have to talk about this kind of post-rally consolidation
After a big surge, entering a high-level turnover phase really tests the mindset—BTC holds steady at 74100, ETH rallies then falls back stuck at 2460, and many altcoins see intraday swings of 30 points. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $3.6 billion, with both longs and shorts getting wiped out in rounds.
This is no longer a simple one-way rally; it’s a phase of concentrated short-term profit-taking + some longs taking profits and exiting + new funds buying at highs, a fierce high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
BTC: 74100, entering a shakeout phase after a big surge
After BTC pierced 75200 on the upside, it saw a clear pullback, completing a violent shakeout. Notably, although there was a retracement, there was no crash-style volume dump; most of the previous breakout supports remain intact.
In the evening, repeated high-level spikes and dips show intensified bull-bear battles. Core support is at 72800‑73300; as long as this range holds, the larger bullish trend remains intact. Resistance above is 74800‑75200.
ETH: 2460, digesting huge profit-taking after the rally
Intraday high reached 2530, then quickly fell back, with an extremely volatile range. The ETH/BTC ratio remains high, indicating funds are still willing to allocate to the Ethereum ecosystem, but after consecutive sharp rises, many floating profit chips are choosing to cash out.
Evening sees back-and-forth consolidation to wash out chips, a normal pullback and rest after a big surge. Key support is 2380‑2410; if this holds without a decisive break, there is still momentum for a second rally.
SOL: 94.3, high elasticity with high volatility
After hitting 98 on the upside, it quickly pulled back, with intense high-level chip exchanges. Overall market risk appetite remains, but selling pressure starts to release after continuous rises. As an elastic leader, it surges fiercely but also pulls back sharply. Support at 90.2, resistance 97‑99.
HYPE: 18-point wide-range oscillation, altcoins start intense turnover
No longer a mindless one-way uptrend, it’s a huge shakeout after a big surge. Although the underlying narrative hasn’t changed, the short-term gains are huge, and a large amount of short-term funds are taking profits and fleeing. Chips are fully exchanging, and high-level volatility will significantly increase.
XRP, DOGE: sector divergence emerges, catch-up rallies start to diverge
XRP gave back more than half of its gains after the rally, with low-entry funds cashing out profits. DOGE sentiment cools, meme coins no longer rally broadly, and the market shows strong-weak divergence, no longer a phase where blindly buying guarantees profits.
A few core points
Tonight’s consolidation is a high-level shakeout after a big bullish candle, a risk release during the uptrend, not a direct trend reversal.
The underlying logic driving the market hasn’t disappeared, but the short-term gains are too large, and the market needs time to digest profits.
Market tiers shift: independent altcoins enter huge shakeout > ETH mainline consolidates > BTC holds the base > small and mid-cap coins show clear divergence.
Repeated spikes and liquidations on both sides tonight indicate huge internal disagreement. After a large-scale shakeout, if support holds, the next upward wave will begin.
Trading strategy
Do not chase highs, do not prematurely call tops, wait for pullback stabilization signals, reduce position size to cope with volatility.
BTC: 72800‑73300 is the key strength/weakness dividing line; hold to continue watching the wave.
ETH: wait for pullback to 2380‑2410 to stabilize before considering opportunities; do not chase highs.
HYPE: high-level volatility risk increases; avoid heavy positions.
SOL, XRP: sector divergence; abandon chasing highs, only buy dips.
A risk reminder
High-level volatility after continuous surges with two-way spikes will become normal; both bulls and bears are easily swept out. Even if the mid-term trend remains bullish, short-term deep pullbacks will occur.
A bull market does not mean blindly going long; shakeouts are the most likely times to lose money.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Gold’s return above $4,500/oz on Aug. 20 looks more significant when viewed through positioning, not price alone. SPDR Gold Shares added 9.41 tonnes, reaching 1,034.65 tonnes. Meanwhile, 53 China-listed gold funds grew by RMB26.8B since the start of August, reaching RMB424.2B by Aug. 19. That broader fund participation can reinforce the rally—but it also raises the cost of disappointment. A weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields and persistent deficit concerns remain supportive. But rising long-te⚠️ Basent's Statement
The scale of U.S. Treasury buybacks is expected to exceed $4 billion
At the same time, it points out that the current U.S. Treasury yields have deviated from fundamentals
------------
Recently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have continued to rise
The Treasury Department plans to buy back long-term government bonds
Aiming to lower long-term interest rates and stabilize the bond market
This is a debt management operation by the Treasury Department
Not a Federal Reserve money printing
Billions in buybacks compared to trillions in the U.S. Treasury market
💥 More of a confidence signal
Hard to completely reverse the major trend in the bond market
------------
When he says yields do not reflect fundamentals
He means the yield increase is not entirely driven by economic data
To a large extent, it is market panic
Driven by trading sentiment from massive bond issuance
"From the crypto market perspective, this is a short-term positive sentiment"
If buybacks can suppress U.S. Treasury yields
Dollar pressure will ease, and funds will favor risk assets
Beneficial for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin $BTC $ETH $SOL
But don't be overly optimistic, this is only a relief measure
It cannot solve the root cause of the U.S.'s large fiscal deficit
Once buybacks are implemented and yields rebound again📈
⚠️ Risk assets will face correction pressure
‼️ Currently, the crypto space is caught in a dual battle between macro interest rates and U.S. regulation
✅ On one side, watch U.S. Treasury yield trends
✅ On the other, closely monitor the September 15 vote on the "Clear Act"
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 😭😭😭 $3.4 billion in short positions buried alive, 194,800 people liquidated, and I am one of them
Last week I wrote four or five articles bearish on BTC. Every reason was true. ETFs are withdrawing, whales are running, funding rates are negative to the floor.
Then BTC surged from 64,000 to 72,000. My 63,200 short position was stopped out at 63,300.
In 24 hours, 194,800 people were liquidated for $3.4 billion, 92% were shorts. The biggest massacre since 2021. I witnessed history, the cost was experiencing history firsthand.
The most ironic thing is, none of my bearish reasons were false. But with Trump holding meetings in the White House, the SEC pushing new regulations, and the Treasury expanding bond buybacks, these three things combined caused a bullish candle to shoot up.
You talk to me about RSI? One sentence from Trump outweighs a hundred RSIs.
Just like with SanDisk. After a 47% drop, I chased shorts and got killed by a 60% rebound. After a week of decline, I was bearish again and got squeezed out with stop losses. The same mistake twice — chasing shorts during a downtrend and getting blown up by rebounds. Seems like I only learned one thing: shorting.
But stop losses were still right. The 63,300 stop loss cost me 100 points, but without it, at 72,000, my 400U would have been wiped out eightfold. Stop losses don’t stop you from making money, they stop you from dying.
Now I have no positions, neither chasing longs nor shorts. Shorting in a policy-driven market is like going against Trump, and I don’t have that courage yet. Chasing longs at 72,000? I’m not going to turn the other cheek after getting slapped on the left.
The $3.4 billion graveyard grass hasn’t even grown yet, why rush. $BTC $ETH $OKB #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ 1. ETF Institutional Funds (External Incremental Funding Window) BTC spot ETFs showed intraday high-level divergence. After large net inflows the previous day, short-term profit-taking selling increased today. Institutions did not chase the rally during the rally, and large active buying orders were rare, with funds mainly readjusting positions on the exchange. ETH spot ETFs also saw short-term cash-outs. Although the overall inflow trend has recently warmed up, the price has risen far beyond the scale of ETF inflows, so this rally is not driven by external compliant institutional funds. Institutional funds are currently cautiously watching; sustained net inflows are the key signal of a trend continuation. 2. On-chain Whale Funds (Medium- to Long-Term Chip Perspective) Long-term whale holdings remain stable, continuously withdrawing BTC and ETH from exchanges to self-custody wallets and locking them, maintaining the long-term token accumulation logic; Short-term trading whales gradually transferred chips above 72,000 to exchanges to take profits and adjust positions, without consistent large-scale positioning. In the counterfeit direction, short-term whales quickly switched to MEME hotspots BOME and PUMP with quick in-and-out moves. Most of the previously popular and obsolete coins have already been distributed at high levels by whales and exited. 3. Smart money targeting funds (short-term main force behavior) Long-term smart money maintains a base position; Short-term smart money leveraged this round of rapid rotation during this surge—some betting on XRP's main trend, while others trading in meme hotspots, with flexible leveraged positions in and out. Currently, Smart Money is not collectively bullish; portfolio rebalancing and stock swapping have become the main action at this stage. 4. Futures Derivatives Funds (Core Driver of This Round) Total Open Interest Across the NetworkAlthough SK Hynix announced a buyback and increased holdings, this positive news seems to have come too late, and the market rebound is not very strong. However, SK Hynix's performance in the Korean stock market has never been strong. Let's see how the US stock market performs tonight; or maybe storage really has a hard time rising.
But in the long run, storage is essentially a cyclical stock. Although storage chip prices are very high now (servers have become super expensive), next year or the year after might be a turning point for the storage industry. Why do I say this?
One reason is that these US-listed storage companies are also vigorously building factories and expanding capacity. Another is that downstream companies will start looking for alternatives. Also, based on the capacity projections of Chinese companies like ChangXin, the impact on the entire industry in the next couple of years will be significant. Our Chinese manufacturing industry is strong and very good at expanding capacity and engaging in price wars (similar to lithium batteries).
This is also why when listed companies release financial reports and mention large investments in AI, the market falls instead of rises, because many investors feel that this money might really not be recovered.
Right now, you can still trade SanDisk in waves, but it feels like it will be harder to do so in the future. The previously mentioned level starting with 14 hasn't been reached yet, so just wait a bit longer. Buy when no one is interested, sell when the crowds are bustling. Today, the market has surged significantly, and the entire market appears to be thriving. At times like this, many people are affected by emotions and can't help but want to go long. Or, unable to resist shorting. I believe that in such emotional moments, one should not chase after hot topics. Chasing hot topics often leads to injury; even if you make money temporarily, you might end up losing it with interest. At times like this, what we should do most is calm down and look at those coins that no one cares about. —————————————————— Personally, I think $BEAT market makers are very likely to take advantage of this strong rally to buy out the market. Because $BEAT has been declining steadily, while other coins in the market have surged significantly. In this situation, those holding $BEAT inevitably feel a lot of loss. After feeling down, many people cut their losses to chase higher prices. As a result, the chips naturally concentrate in the hands of the dealer. Once the dealer gets the chips, the price naturally rises all the way. Because if prices don't push up, it's hard for large funds to enter the market. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its data. It can be seen that the contract open interest and long-short ratio are increasing simultaneously, indicating that many people are still going long. Let's look at the data from a slightly longer period. It can be seen that data from a slightly longer period and a shorter period are almost identical. All of this indicates that the market is filled with multiple players accumulating shares#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
I am Cige. After SanDisk surged to 1800, it started fluctuating at high levels. On August 18, it once dropped more than 9% at the open, and after rebounding intraday on August 19, it fell about 3.5% again. The divergence in the storage sector is widening.
The long-term growth targets released on Investor Day are the core driving force behind the sector's rebound. Goldman Sachs set a target price of $2200, JPMorgan raised it to $2250, and long-term contracts lock in nearly $100 billion in revenue over the next four years. However, short-term funds are switching repeatedly at high levels because the pace of valuation repricing has outpaced fundamental verification.
Bank of America believes SanDisk's long-term targets can provide a reference for Micron's valuation, but the key lies in NAND price trends, the execution strength of customer agreements, and whether AI server demand can continue to support profit margins. SK Hynix announced a 40 trillion KRW buyback, but its stock price still fell about 9.2% that day, indicating that while the market rewards long-term narratives, it is also adjusting short-term valuations.
SanDisk's long-term logic has not been overturned, but the cost-effectiveness of chasing gains in the short term is declining. The storage sector is moving from an emotional recovery phase into a fundamental verification phase, a process that will not happen overnight and will continue to be volatile. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; take your time to savor it. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Haha, to be honest, I'm already a bit numb. ETH's recent surge has indeed been fierce, quickly shooting up from a low position in a short time, with shorts being continuously liquidated. Market data shows that ETH short liquidations have exceeded $1 billion, and the short-term short squeeze effect is very obvious. My own approach is rather restrained: small positions for testing, never chasing with heavy positions. Currently, my judgment remains cautious, even leaning bearish in the short term, but that doesn't mean I want to go short immediately. Because in such a strong short squeeze rally, opening shorts against the trend can easily get blown up again. Having suffered losses before, this time I'd rather be slower. Will ETH directly start a major uptrend? I've seriously thought about this question. If you only look at the candlesticks, ETH is indeed very strong now; but from the perspective of chips and market structure, I actually think there is a fairly big trap here. Historically, big rallies rarely move in a straight line. Before a truly large-scale rise, there is usually a round of sufficient consolidation, turnover, and chip sedimentation. The market needs to wash out the unsteady chips first to make room for the subsequent main uptrend. And the problem now is here: ETH has just rapidly surged, and there are still a large number of floating profits from low-position chips earlier. Suppose ETH continues to push higher around $2,250–$2,350, this is actually still close to the previous dense trading area. Once the price continues to surge, the early low-position bottom-fishing funds are very likely to start taking profits. In other words: the faster it rises, the heavier the short-term profit-taking becomes. This is also why I am currently unwilling to This rally looks more like a broad repricing of liquidity risk than a BTC-only breakout. ETH is leading at +17.27% in 24 hours, while BTC and SOL are both up around 10%, a rotation pattern that usually signals expanding risk appetite rather than isolated demand.
Still, BTC slipping back below $72K after breaking it argues against chasing the first move. With the FOMC split in focus and gold reclaiming 4500, macro uncertainty has not disappeared. My bias is constructive, but confirmation now requires BTC to hold the breakout area while strength remains broad.
Not advice, just analysis.BTC and ETH Network-wide Open Interest Real-time Data Analysis (August 21, 11:08)
BTC Open Interest: As the price breaks through 72000, the total BTC open interest across the network has rapidly increased, with leverage levels continuously rising. A large number of short positions were liquidated in a chain reaction over the past day, significantly clearing short-side positions. Afterward, both longs and shorts began establishing new positions at high levels, with the long-short ratio slightly rising. Currently, the proportion of newly added short-term long positions has increased, but there is no sign of a one-sided frenzy of long stacking. Divergence at high levels continues to widen, and once the market turns, high-leverage positions are prone to triggering rapid linked liquidations.
ETH Open Interest: ETH's recent gains have outperformed BTC, with its open interest growth more pronounced than BTC's. Many previously trapped short positions have been closed out, and a large number of short-term longs have entered and opened positions during the rally, causing open interest to rise in tandem. ETH's leverage-driven capital battles are more intense, and liquidation volatility during market fluctuations often exceeds that of Bitcoin.
Overall Summary: The overall market leverage level has reached a recent high, with derivative funds being the main driver of this rally. The continuous rise in open interest indicates that market volatility will further increase. If subsequent spot incremental funds fail to take over, a severe shakeout at high levels could occur at any time.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $BTC Liquidation Long Delta
LLD is now at 35 billion.
In all my years of analyzing crypto, I've never seen anything over 40B.
This suggests the tentative top is in and longs are past due for liquidation.
Probably high leverage longs, which are close by.Right now, the global financial markets are completely out of the loop. In the past, it took years or months of movement and buildup, but now the trend has completely reversed by the sky, with control shameless. This is actually not a big problem, because it shows that the structural contradictions of monopoly financial capitalism are hard to reconcile. The "impossible triangle" in Mundell has turned into the "impossible four corners," and a crisis is brewing. But how much of this is fundamentally related to our country? In our A-share market, what proportion of foreign capital does it hold? 4%。 Our national debt is very stable and doesn't need bailouts. Our RMB exchange rate is heading toward a sustained appreciation channel. Is our AI on the same path as the United States? If the path is completely different, then why do we just go all out whenever the external market fluctuates? Who exactly did it? Others drop today, but tomorrow they will rise immediately. Here, we always do the opposite, never studying any industry or development, and mostly doing things like draining the pond to catch the golden eggs. On Friday, the so-called U.S. debt crisis. Self-media have been hyping it up for a week, talking as if America is doomed, each one more radical than the last. Just like before, when Japan's exchange rate was ruined, every day, either this one was ruined or that one was doomed. Moreover, such "quick victory" statements claiming "China has always won a big game" will not be deleted, will spread far, and may even influence policy. You keep saying others are about to crash, but you're crashing even faster and more than they do. How can you say a tech sector can pull back in a month? The STAR 50 Index fell -25.90% in July, setting a new record for the largest single-month drop since the STAR Market's inception. **Fortune AccountBTC and ETH Spot ETF Buy and Sell Real-Time Data Analysis (August 21, 11:07)
Bitcoin Spot ETF: The intraday pre-market period shows an overall divergent pattern. BlackRock IBIT remains the main trading target for funds, with large buy orders intermittently appearing on the order book, but short-term profit-taking sell orders continue to emerge, rapidly narrowing the gap between buy and sell orders. After recording a large net inflow yesterday, on-exchange funds show divergence today, with many short-term institutions choosing to take profits on rallies. Incremental off-exchange buy orders have not yet kept pace with the sharp rise in the market. Looking solely at ETF fund movements, institutions have not chased the highs in sync; this round of the market rally is mainly driven by short covering in the derivatives market.
Ethereum Spot ETF: The ETF market heat is weaker than Bitcoin's. The leading product ETHA shows a more balanced battle between buy and sell orders, with no large one-sided sweeps. After several consecutive days of net inflows in recent days, market sentiment has warmed, but following ETH's rapid short-term surge, on-exchange profit-taking sell orders have clearly increased. Some short-term funds have cashed out and exited, while new entrants are slower to enter. ETF fund inflows are much smaller than the price increase.
Overall Summary: Currently, the coin price has surged violently, but institutional fund sentiment at the ETF level remains cautious, with no sustained large incremental buy orders entering. If ETF funds can resume continuous net inflows later, it will further confirm the medium- to long-term continuation of this rally; if ETF inflows stagnate, the risk of high-level oscillation and correction will increase.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice.Walmart's earnings report was released, showing a decline in discretionary spending data, further deepening expectations of weakening U.S. consumption. Coupled with the current high oil prices and high inflation expectations, macro stagflation expectations are rising!
The current macro focus has returned to this week's main theme—the verification of U.S. economic growth and consumption. After Walmart's earnings report showed a decline in discretionary spending, combined with previous earnings from major U.S. home goods companies, the overall indication is that U.S. consumption is marginally weakening.
Under the premise of weakening consumption plus current high oil prices and high inflation expectations, the market has begun to anticipate stagflation trades. Until August 26, if crude oil prices cannot effectively decline and core PCE remains sticky or even rises, the market will price in stagflation.
Currently, in the financial markets, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded and risen again intraday. The Fed has increased long-term bond repurchases to ease current pressure on the bond market. The accelerated rise in gold prices indicates the exposure of economic risks.
Regarding U.S. stocks, although they have declined, the SPHB/SPHQ ratio remains stable, and the VIX index has not risen significantly, so the U.S. stock market is not in panic but in a defensive phase.
Tomorrow is the release of the U.S. August preliminary S&P PMI. The data itself does not carry much weight, but at this stage, it is very likely to guide the market on whether to trade stagflation expectations in advance. #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 The short squeeze rally is still ongoing, and the data on short liquidations continues to expand. Over the past 24 hours, more than $1.3 billion has been liquidated, with over 90% being short positions. The 72,500 level was hit, indicating that the shorts' defensive line set above 70,000 has been systematically targeted. As the price reaches this level, the driving logic has shifted from "buy-side pushing" to "shorts being forced to cover pushing." The faster the speed, the more unstable the foundation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The current market shows a divergence in the pricing logic for high-valuation assets, with the ability to deliver earnings directly determining the direction of position rebalancing during shifts in risk appetite.
Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of the year reached ¥17.17 billion, a 23.8% increase, while net profit attributable to the parent company grew only 10.1%. The slower profit growth compared to revenue has lowered market expectations for profit efficiency. Although the Star People IP's revenue grew nearly sixfold with 6 IPs generating over ¥1 billion each, declines in the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets indicate growth remains heavily reliant on the domestic market.
The drivers influencing position adjustments are ranked as follows: whether actual profit margins can be restored, whether overseas markets can accelerate growth again, and the spillover effect of next week's $NVDA earnings report on risk appetite in high-valuation sectors.
In the bullish scenario, a recovery in overseas business combined with $NVDA's earnings guidance exceeding expectations next week will boost market risk appetite and trigger position replenishment. The trigger condition for this scenario is a return to revenue growth in overseas regions. Variables to watch include the proportion of institutional position increases, with a failure signal being heavy selling pressure on high-valuation assets.
In the bearish scenario, if multiple IP switches fail to offset overseas declines and high-valuation premiums are squeezed, long positions will face deleveraging and exit pressure. The trigger condition here is further constraints on profitability. Variables to monitor include the depth of sector-wide pullbacks, with a failure signal being a rapid decline in trading volume followed by a halt in price drops.
The failure condition for the above judgments is a significant overall macro risk appetite rebound, causing capital to temporarily ease strict scrutiny of profit margins.
The core variables to observe over the next 7 days are the rhythm of institutional holdings changes following the $NVDA earnings release and the net capital flow in high-valuation sectors.
#宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧Is the money coming back again? Wall Street is re-leveraging SK Hynix
$SKHY has shown a very interesting signal:
Wall Street is re-leveraging SK Hynix.
At the most crowded time last year, banks quoted swap long positions on SK Hynix at rates as high as SOFR + 1000 basis points.
And now?
Institutions like Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan have already compressed the financing spread to about 150–300 basis points.
The cost has been cut significantly.
More important than "cheaper" behind this is the fact that previously banks feared not SK Hynix's fundamentals, but that all clients were crowded on the same side, with overly concentrated positions, making even the banks' own balance sheets unwilling to take on more risk.
After this round of intense AI stock adjustments, some crowded trades have been cleared, and banks' risk capacity has actually been released again.
Even banks that previously rejected clients are now actively seeking business.
When financing costs drop and leverage channels reopen, the threshold for funds to go long is lowered accordingly.
This does not necessarily mean the stock price will immediately reverse. US stock investment websites believe:
Wall Street's most extreme "crowding risk alert" for SK Hynix is being lifted.
$MU $SNDK #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #Government bond issues resurface
Yesterday, I just commented that Besant's repurchase efforts were insufficient, and today the US Treasury yield has risen again, approaching around 4.6%.
This is the consequence of government intervention, which causes the market to suffer greater backlash, turning short-term problems into long-term structural issues.
Fortunately, most global macro hedge funds are based on Wall Street, so hopefully they won't be so ruthless as to short their own country, hopefully...
Tonight, the US stock, currency, and bond markets are all under pressure. The Nasdaq's support at 26,000 is precarious. I mentioned yesterday that the decline in this crisis might be around 10%, which is near 24,400 by the end of July. Of course, it might not reach that level, but having this psychological expectation will prevent being scared by price pullbacks.
At the same time, there is no need to rush to bottom-fish now; from both time and space perspectives, it's not yet the moment. The situation needs to develop further, with the speech by Walsh on the 28th being a key point.
Gold continues to remain strong. Now Wall Street collectively starts to turn bullish. Citibank's research report indicates a baseline scenario of $5,000, optimistically up to $6,000. I think reaching $5,000 would already be good, and I will take profits.
Last night, Moderna in the US announced the success of the phase 3 trial of the immunotherapy drug Keytruda, significantly reducing cancer recurrence rates. This is good news for humanity. Today, the A-share innovative drug sector surged. I have previously emphasized that innovative drugs are a short-term strong sector with sustained heat, so continue holding.
Meanwhile, the tech sector's momentum has been drained, coupled with bond-related negatives for AI infrastructure, leading to recent pullbacks. Slightly reducing positions or continuing to hold steadily is fine. This round of bond turmoil is expected to end in September.
Bitcoin performed brilliantly yesterday, driven by the crypto industry executives summoned by the Trump supporter and another call to buy. I think this is also a short-term move. The bigger support factor, like gold, comes from the US Treasury issue. Whether Bitcoin can break through 70,000 and subsequently surpass the bull-bear dividing line at 78,000 depends on whether the Clarity Act passes in September.
I continue to emphasize position sizing and risk control. Now gold can account for 10% of a long-term portfolio, and gold ETFs are more suitable for beginners. Silver, due to its weaker financial attributes compared to gold, will only follow gold's rise later, so patience is required.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks. This wave is driven by favorable policies and short squeeze liquidations; its sustainability depends on three factors
Whether ETFs can maintain net inflows, whether the September "CLARITY Act" vote will pass, and whether the Fed's rate cut expectations will materialize.
If all three are fulfilled, the rally can continue; if any one fails, this wave might end here.
Chasing the highs now? Think carefully for yourself. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
Recently, the storage sector has experienced a "expectation trade."
After SanDisk's Investor Day announced long-term growth targets, its stock price surged, and the market began to reprice storage demand in the AI era. The company proposed maintaining mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth over the next few years and improving profit stability through long-term customer agreements.
However, the stock price quickly retreated afterward, dropping more than 9% intraday on August 18. Storage stocks like SK Hynix and Micron also experienced repeated fluctuations.
The AI storage logic is real, but the short-term valuation has already priced in too much expectation.
In the past, the market speculated on "AI needing more computing power," but now it is further focusing on "how AI-generated data is stored."
This is why NAND, HBM, and data center storage have become focal points for capital.
If future AI infrastructure investment continues to expand, storage companies may enter a new profit cycle.
But if the market finds AI capital expenditure growth below expectations, the high-valuation sector may continue to undergo repricing.
For the crypto market, this is also an important signal:
Now, capital is chasing not only BTC and ETH but the entire AI infrastructure chain.
In the next phase, truly strong assets may come from the intersection of "AI + financial liquidity."
The market won't just look at stories; ultimately, it must return to cash flow and growth realization.
$SNDK $SKHY $MU The earnings season these days is quite interesting: a couple of days ago Xiaomi talked about "people, cars, and homes"
Today POPMART submitted its report, and next week it's Nvidia's turn to answer whether the money for AI can keep burning.
At first glance, POPMART's report looks solid, but on a second look, I'm a bit hesitant to chase.
Revenue for the first half of the year was ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8%, but net profit attributable to the parent company only increased by 10.1%.
Revenue is still growing, but profit growth is slowing down. The market can no longer just look at how many blind boxes were sold; it also needs to consider profit margins, inventory turnover, and overseas expansion efficiency.
The most critical change is the cooling off of LABUBU, while Star People grew nearly sixfold.
The good news is that POPMART is not completely tied to a single IP; six IPs generated over ¥1 billion in revenue each, which also proves that its incubation system really has substance; but the bad news is that both Asia-Pacific and the Americas are declining, making the domestic market the main support.
Today, Star People takes over, but that doesn't mean it can replicate another LABUBU tomorrow, nor does it mean overseas markets will automatically recover.
So I think POPMART hasn't ended its growth but has shifted from a "blockbuster market" to an "operational test": watching whether multiple IPs can continuously take over, whether overseas can accelerate again, and whether profits can catch up with revenue.
Next week, Nvidia faces the same situation.
One sells emotional value, the other sells computing power, but in front of high valuations, both have to answer the same question: after the story is told, can profits still be realized.
$POPMART $ETH $BTC #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ I see many friends, like me, were doing well with dual currency trading but suddenly sold off prematurely. However, I think this is not a big problem, really not.
First, let me talk about my test account. I started with $10,100 when Bitcoin was at $64,000. With that amount, I could buy 0.158 BTC. Currently, this amount has grown to $11,385.78. Based on the current Bitcoin price of $71,100, I could buy 0.16 BTC.
In other words, from a BTC perspective, I haven't actually lost money, and it doesn't mean I can't continue with dual currency trading. Of course, the difficulty now is much higher. Previously, I calculated that I could bear a Bitcoin cost below $65,000, but now it's $71,000, and at $65,000 there is almost no profit.
If you want to earn returns, you either hold long-term, like one to two months, but that doesn't align with my investment philosophy. So, don't focus on the price but on the yield. I usually choose a volatility range of 3% to 5%. For example, today I chose a low buy at $69,000.
If the drop exceeds 3%, then I might get filled. I can accept a cost of $69,000, which is equivalent to buying at $63,000 initially, so it's okay. If I don't get filled, then a 46% interest is also good.
In the short term, this is how I plan to proceed. The test account expires tomorrow; today, the one expiring is my personal account.兄弟们，北京时间8月20日凌晨，美联储7月FOMC会议纪要正式公布。结果就一句话：鹰派比想象中多，9比3的分歧只是冰山一角。 9比3的投票，背后是更广泛的鹰派阵营 7月28-29日的议息会议上，FOMC以9票赞成、3票反对，连续第五次将联邦基金利率维持在3.5%-3.75%区间。投下反对票的三位地方联储主席——达拉斯的洛根、克利夫兰的哈马克和明尼阿波利斯的卡什卡利，全部主张加息25个基点。 但纪要显示，支持加息的力量远不止这三人。纪要原文写道：“数名与会者倾向于本次会议调升目标区间25个基点”——措辞通常涵盖的人数多于三人。更值得注意的是，没有投票权的堪萨斯城联储主席施密德和圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆，会后也表示如果当时有投票权，他们会支持加息。 这是2016年以来美联储分歧最大的一次表决。 两派理由：现在加 vs 再等等 鹰派认为价格压力全面扩散，委员会应采取更具限制性的立场。现在不加，未来可能被迫进行“幅度更大、代价更高的一连串紧缩”。 鸽派认为7月至9月中旬的新增数据能提供更多线索，降低通胀前景的不确定性。 纪要对通胀前景用了四个字：“高度不确定”。与会者提到中东冲突升级、关税传导#Gold returns above $4500, institutional disagreements intensify On August 20, spot gold climbed back above $4500 during intraday trading. It took only 3 days to move from 4430 to 4500. The capital side is also cooperating, with SPDR Gold ETF increasing holdings by 9.41 tons in a single day to 1034.65 tons, and 53 domestic gold-themed funds surpassing 420 billion in scale. This is not retail investors buying; institutions are adding positions.
However, disagreements have started within institutions. UBS sees $5000 in the first half of 2027, while Wells Fargo has lowered its target price for this year and next. When bullish and bearish views diverge, it often indicates the market has reached a critical point.
Several underlying drivers remain. A weaker dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and concerns over fiscal deficits all support gold’s long-term logic. U.S. debt is approaching 40 trillion, with interest expenses continuously rising. Gold’s appeal as the ultimate credit anchor is being repriced.
For BTC, the sustained strength in gold is a positive signal. Both share the logic of easing rate expectations, but gold’s rise is more about long-term capital allocation, while BTC’s rise is more a short-term reflection of liquidity expectations. Gold holding above 4500 supports BTC’s macro narrative.
However, risks of chasing gains at high levels are accumulating. If long-term interest rates rise again or risk appetite continues to recover, gold will face significant short-term correction pressure. Gold has taken the lead; whether BTC can keep up depends on whether next week’s CPI and employment data continue to support the warming of easing expectations. $XAU $BTC $ETH BTC returns to 70000, what is really driving this rally?
BTC has stood above 70000 USD again after nearly three months.
The 24-hour peak increase exceeded 7%, reaching a new high since early June; ETH also strengthened simultaneously, once breaking through 2300 USD.
In the past week, short positions in the market were massively liquidated, totaling over 1.3 billion USD.
I believe this rally is mainly driven by four factors together.
First, short squeeze.
This is the most direct catalyst.
Previously, the market concentrated on shorting for several consecutive days. As BTC broke through key resistance, a large number of shorts were forced to close positions.
Price increases triggered more stop losses, and stop losses further pushed prices up.
Thus forming:
Rise → Short covering → Passive buying → Price continues to rise → More shorts liquidated.
This is a typical short squeeze market.
But it should be noted that the short squeeze is responsible for initiating the rally; what truly determines how far the rally can go is the subsequent spot capital.
Second, regulatory expectations have clearly improved.
Recently, positive changes have appeared in U.S. crypto regulatory policies. The CLARITY Act and the SEC's advancement of the digital asset regulatory framework have led the market to start trading under a new logic:
Crypto assets are gradually moving from "high-risk speculative products" into the U.S. financial regulatory system.
For institutional funds, this increase in policy certainty is very important.
Because what institutions really lack is never money, but a compliant channel to enter the market.
Third, liquidity expectations improved due to the U.S. long-term Treasury repurchase policy.
After the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of Treasury repurchases, market concerns about long-term U.S. bond yields and liquidity have been alleviated temporarily.
For high beta risk assets like BTC, the easing of long-term interest rate pressure itself is a marginal positive.
Fourth, and what I consider the most important—the return of ETF funds.
One of the biggest pressures on BTC previously was the lack of sustained incremental funds during price rebounds.
But recently, spot ETFs have shown significant net inflows again.
This means the market is undergoing a change:
From "short covering driving the rally" gradually transitioning to "spot capital taking over the rally."
If ETF funds can continue to maintain net inflows, then the nature of this rally will change.
It will no longer be just an oversold rebound.
⸻
Of course, risks have not disappeared.
The Federal Reserve still has obvious divisions, and uncertainties remain regarding inflation, employment, and subsequent policy paths.
So what really needs to be observed now is not whether BTC can stand above 70000.
But:
Whether 70000 USD can truly turn from a resistance level into a new support level.
If the following occurs:
Sideways trading above 70000 → Pullback without breaking → Continued ETF inflows → Another volume-driven rise
Then the height of this rally can continue to target 72000–75000 USD, or even further challenge higher areas.
But if after breaking 70000, ETF funds weaken again and the price quickly falls back below 70000, then caution is needed:
This rally is mainly driven by short liquidation rather than a trend reversal.
So the most worth paying attention to now is actually this sentence:
Short liquidation can send BTC to 70000, but only real incremental funds can keep BTC above 70000.
This is also the key to whether this rally can upgrade from a "short squeeze rebound" to a "trend rally." $BTC #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ International Spot Gold (London Gold Spot) Real-time Market Data Analysis as of August 20, 23:02
Current price is $4515 per ounce, with a 24-hour increase of +0.1%. After an early session surge breaking through the 4583 stage high, it has pulled back and fluctuated in the short term, currently in a high-level consolidation phase to digest positions.
Key price levels: First support at 4470, strong support at 4440; short-term resistance at 4583 (intraday high). Upon a valid breakout, the target range above is 4650-4700.
Market capital flow: Yesterday, the US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchase triggered a sharp rally. After the positive effect was realized, bulls began short-term profit-taking; gold ETFs have seen sustained medium- to long-term accumulation, indicating that the long-term capital layout logic remains unchanged, but short-term speculative funds are starting to diverge. Currently, the crypto market is experiencing a breakout, with some short-term liquidity flowing out from precious metals into the crypto space.
Overall, the medium- to long-term bullish logic for gold still holds, but after short-term overbought conditions, the risk of a volatile pullback increases. The cost-effectiveness of chasing higher positions at elevated levels is relatively low. Going forward, focus will be on changes in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index to judge signals for a new market cycle.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice$BTC $ETH $SOL The most heartbreaking scene in this market rally is not how much BTC has risen, but that when it rose, the once most popular DOGE didn't even touch $0.12. Capital only recognizes BTC; Meme coins are abandoned — this is not an emotional complaint, but the harsh reality unfolding in the market.
Just look at the data to see how extreme the divergence is. $BTC climbed from the low of $60,000 in February this year to above $70,000, with whales increasing holdings by 66,700 coins over 60 days, worth over $4 billion, and addresses holding thousands of coins have been adding for three consecutive weeks; but what about $DOGE? It has been steadily declining from $0.12 last December to around $0.07, spending the entire month of August fluctuating between $0.064 and $0.083, with the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all pressing down overhead, unable even to break the first resistance at $0.078. One is attracting capital, the other is bleeding; same market, two different destinies.
Why has capital suddenly become so "single-minded"? Because the nature of the money entering this round has changed. Institutional funds brought by spot ETFs and long-term buyers with treasury allocation strategies are buying the narrative of "digital gold," compliance, and balance sheet allocation. This type of capital will not buy a dog coin with unlimited issuance priced by social hype. After retail sentiment fades, DOGE loses its only engine — attention. When BTC falls, it falls harder; when BTC rises, it only dares to follow symbolically. High beta characteristics amplify gains in a bull market but become a meat grinder in a zero-sum game. #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue? $BTC Hello everyone, this rally in Bitcoin is extremely strong!
Let's look at the facts: Bitcoin broke through $72,000, reaching a new high since early June, with a cumulative increase of over 10% in two days. In 24 hours, about $3.4 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network, affecting nearly 190,000 people, with shorts accounting for more than 90%, marking the largest short liquidation wave on record since 2021.
Can it continue? There is evidence for both bulls and bears:
Bullish evidence is real money: Yesterday, the US spot ETF saw a net inflow of $517 million in a single day, the highest since May 4; on-chain, whales have increased their holdings by about 43,000 BTC in the past 60 days. This rally is not just shorts being forced to cover; there is indeed incremental capital entering the spot market.
Bearish risk is overheated leverage: Funding rates have risen to a 20-month high, RSI has entered the overbought zone, and the short squeeze momentum will inevitably weaken after large-scale liquidations; moreover, the CLARITY Act is still stalled in the Senate, so policy benefits are currently only expectations.
My view: This rally looks more like the "start of valuation repair plus structural reversal" rather than a simple rebound episode. The ETF and on-chain spot buying are the scarcest elements in a short squeeze rally, and both have appeared, indicating that there are real buyers willing to take positions above $70,000. But don't chase in the short term: short squeezes come fast and go fast. Next, watch for two confirmation signals: whether the $70,250 support holds on a pullback, and whether a volume breakout above $73,200 can challenge the $75,000–$77,400 range. If support holds, this rally confirms a bear-to-bull transition; if not, it remains a range-bound market. $BTC broke through 72000, rising 11.8% in 24 hours, with a total liquidation of $2.99 billion across the network, shorts were swept away in one wave. This is not a mild rebound; it is a self-reinforcing short squeeze. Every time the price surges to a new level, more shorts get liquidated, and the buying from these liquidations pushes the price higher until all the most stubborn shorts are completely cleared out.
There are three core drivers. The Treasury Department expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to plunge sharply from 5.33% to 5.19%, loosening the tightest constraint on BTC from long-term interest rates. Short positions are too full, and the market has been consolidating with low volatility for too long. Once the price breaks a key level, all shorts are on the same boat. ETFs have continuous net inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing over $200 million inflow in a single day, indicating allocation funds are entering.
72000 is the new key level; holding above it requires sustained spot trading and ETF capital relay. If incremental funds continue to enter, the short squeeze may shift into a trend-driven rally. If spot support is insufficient, high-level pullbacks and renewed leverage buildup will amplify volatility. The cost-performance of chasing highs is not favorable; wait for a pullback to stabilize around 66500 to 67000 before considering further moves. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Looking at the three platform tokens BNB, OKB, and HYPE together, they no longer follow the same playstyle.
$BNB is the most stable. After all, Binance is the world's largest exchange, and the entire ecosystem of BNB Chain and DeFi supports it. Its biggest advantage is that it has already established itself, but the downside is obvious: the market cap is large, so it's not easy to replicate the explosive growth it had before.
$OKB is what I've been paying more attention to recently. Last year, they directly cut the supply to 21 million tokens, permanently fixed. X Layer has started to increase gas and staking demand for OKB. The small market cap is its biggest advantage, but the problem lies in whether X Layer and Exchange OS can truly build the ecosystem. That remains to be seen.
$HYPE is the one I find most interesting.
HYPE didn't launch the token first and then tell the story; the product and trading volume have already taken off, and protocol revenue can continuously buy back HYPE. Recently, with the U.S. compliance line, the market price jumped directly from around 62 to over 70.
So here’s how I see these three:
BNB: highest certainty.
OKB: most aggressive supply, highly flexible.
HYPE: product and revenue are the most promising, with the greatest potential.
I currently hold a bit of all three.
If you want stability, look at BNB; if you want to bet on platform tokens being revalued, look at OKB; if you want to find the next phase of explosive growth, look at HYPE.
Especially HYPE, which has real trading volume, real revenue, and can continuously buy back tokens.The Federal Reserve is starting to "argue" internally, and the market's real concern is not about rate hikes, but uncertainty.
The July FOMC meeting minutes released an important signal: divisions within the Federal Reserve are widening.
Although the final vote was 9 to 3 to maintain rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range, officials Logan, Harker, and Kashkari clearly supported a 25 basis point hike, believing inflationary pressures have not fully subsided.
The problem is, the market is looking at "past meetings" but trading on "future data."
July CPI continued to cool, and weakening employment data have clearly reduced the rationale for an immediate rate hike in September. Currently, the market is more focused on whether the Federal Reserve will be forced back onto a hawkish path by inflation.
For the crypto market, the focus is not on a single rate hike, but on liquidity expectations.
If inflation continues to decline in the future and the Federal Reserve signals a dovish shift, the dollar will weaken, risk appetite will rise, and BTC and high-valuation assets may see a new round of capital inflows.
However, if AI infrastructure investment overheats, U.S. stock valuation risks expand, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the market may reprice risk.
The biggest variable in the market now is not "whether there will be a rate hike in September," but whether the Federal Reserve can still control market expectations for future policy.
Next, pay attention to two data points:
① Whether U.S. inflation continues to decline
② Whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC $ETH $SOL The release of the Federal Reserve minutes could be a turning point that determines the short-term volatility of asset markets. How much of the interest rate path has the market already priced in, and to what extent is the internal disagreement yet to be reflected? The Fed minutes are scheduled to be released at 2 AM (Vietnam time), and the key point is not the rate decision itself but the level of dissent among the members. The market has already priced in a significant possibility of 1 to 2 rate cuts within the year. Therefore, the variable to watch in this minutes release is not so much whether the timing of the cuts is brought forward, but how much the disagreement over policy direction among the members becomes apparent. Depending on the intensity of this disagreement, expectations for dollar liquidity will be reshaped, which will be transmitted at different speeds to gold, oil, and Bitcoin. - If dovish signals strengthen: downward pressure on the dollar will increase, gold will receive demand both as a safe haven asset and as a hedge against currency depreciation. Oil demand outlook will be partially supported by improved growth expectations, and Bitcoin, as a representative risk asset that follows expectations of dollar liquidity easing, could gain momentum for a rebound. However, thisETH real-time market data analysis as of August 20, 22:59
Current price is $2273, with a 24-hour increase of about 17.1%. This round of rally has clearly outperformed BTC, entering a seriously overbought zone in the short term. The 4-hour RSI has already reached a high threshold.
Key price levels: first support at 2200, strong support at 2100; short-term resistance at 2335 (intraday high). After a valid breakout, the target above is expected in the 2420-2500 range.
Contract aspect: In the past 24 hours, the scale of short liquidations has been astonishing. The large-scale chain liquidation of short positions is the most direct driver of this surge; the total open interest across the network has rapidly increased, leverage levels have sharply risen, and the intensity of high-level competition has significantly increased, with the possibility of large fluctuations at any time.
Capital aspect: ETH spot ETFs have recently seen a rare large single-day net inflow, showing a clear warming in institutional capital sentiment. However, the price increase far exceeds the speed of capital inflow. The market is mainly driven by derivatives short squeezes. Continuous capital relay is needed for further upward space to open.
Overall, the bulls have very strong short-term momentum, but the risk of pullback increases simultaneously under overbought conditions. Chasing at high levels has very low cost-effectiveness.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice$BTC $ETH $SOL BTC real-time market data analysis as of August 20, 22:58
Current price is $71,534, with a 24-hour increase of about 9.2%. The day has seen a violent short squeeze, and the short-term has clearly entered an overbought zone.
Key levels: First support at 69,000, strong support at 67,200; short-term resistance at 72,486 (intraday high). After breaking through, the target above is in the 74,000-75,000 range.
Contract aspect: In the past 24 hours, the scale of short position liquidations far exceeded that of long positions. A large number of crowded shorts were forcibly closed, fueling this round of rally; the overall network long-short ratio is basically balanced, but the divergence between longs and shorts is rapidly expanding, intensifying the battle for new high-level chips.
Capital aspect: BTC spot ETFs recorded a recent large net inflow yesterday, with institutional buying providing underlying support. However, the most direct driving force for this rally remains short covering in the derivatives market. Continuous incremental capital inflow is needed to sustain the momentum further.
Overall, although short-term bullish momentum is strong, the overbought condition may lead to a sharp correction at any time, significantly increasing the risk of chasing highs.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice $BTC There’s still room for a push into the 78K - 80K area - a major confluence of VWAPs I've been watching for a long time.
That's where I'd expect the first meaningful rejection and another period of consolidation.
But yesterday's pump is important: it has increased my conviction that we're in the process of forming the bottom.
The structure is starting to look increasingly constructive.Unrealized gains have expanded, but Hormuz is causing trouble again—can we still hold the long positions?
Brothers, first about the account: BTC long positions were held from 62.6k to 71.7k, unrealized profit +2,003 (ROI +155%). This wave has indeed been quite profitable, but just as I was about to strategize, some trouble popped up again in the Middle East.
Iran has issued three warnings in three days. If the Strait of Hormuz really gets "choked," oil prices will soar first, and risk assets will flee first. BTC just stabilized above 71k, and incremental funds were eager to jump in, but now they probably have to hesitate again. The strong resistance above is at 73k; if geopolitical tensions escalate, safe-haven funds might withdraw first, and BTC could retest 69k or even 68k. But on the other hand, if US-Iran confrontation escalates, BTC’s "digital gold" narrative might be revived, leading to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, making the direction unclear.
ETH is worse off, still stuck around 1,900. BTC can’t carry it, and with geopolitical risk rising, the catch-up rally window will likely close directly, delaying the altcoin season logic again.
My plan:
· Move BTC long stop-loss up to 69.5k, target 73k; hold if it doesn’t break the level.
· Move DOGE trailing stop to 0.075, partially take profits above 0.082, let the rest run.
· No new positions for now; wait for signals from oil prices and the VIX index.
Watching the candlesticks now is not very meaningful; better to watch oil prices and the fear index. Cash and gold have short-term advantages, but my longs have unrealized gains as a cushion, so I can still hold on.
What about you? Under this kind of geopolitical disturbance, do you continue strategizing or take profits first? Let’s discuss in the comments $BTC $DOGE
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Analysis of $ETH's explosive surge on Binance, I've already lost my mind
1. White House Crypto Summit, Trump releases major positive news
- Publicly urges Congress to pass the CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act, classifying crypto assets as commodities/securities, ending long-term regulatory ambiguity
2. SEC regulatory warm breeze: launches safe harbor rules exempting token financing from registration, reducing project compliance pressure, easing institutional panic
II. Macro liquidity flood, risk assets broadly rise
The U.S. Treasury's long-term bond repurchase scale doubles, injecting liquidity into the market, U.S. bond yields decline, and the dollar weakens.
Funds flow out of the bond market into high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, lifting the overall market.
III. The key reason Ethereum is rising faster than Bitcoin: spot liquidity drying up + epic short squeeze (blowing out shorts)
1. Exchange ETH inventories are at historic lows
Large amounts of Ethereum are locked in staking, restaking, and layer-2 networks (Arbitrum/Optimism), reducing spot available for immediate sale. When buying pressure hits, order book depth is shallow, making prices easily surge.
2. Short squeeze liquidation spiral
Many traders previously opened short positions betting on a decline; once positive news hits, prices rapidly rise, forcing shorts to buy ETH to cover losses.
Massive covering orders push prices higher, causing more liquidations, creating positive feedback, directly triggering a 20% big green candle, with over $2 billion in shorts liquidated within 24 hours BTC broke through 72000, can this round of rise continue?
My view: it can continue, but now it has already moved from the "rebound confirmation" phase into the "secondary confirmation phase after the breakout."
The quality of this rise is better than a simple technical rebound. BTC once broke through $72000 today, hitting a new high since early June; meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $517 million yesterday, the largest single-day inflow since early May, with nearly $1 billion accumulated over the past three trading days. 
So this should not be seen merely as a short squeeze.
Currently, three bullish factors are resonating:
① ETF funds are coming back
This is the most important change at present.
Previously, the biggest problem for BTC was the lack of incremental funds during price rebounds. Now, with continuous net inflows in ETFs, it indicates institutional buying is reappearing. 
If continuous inflows can be maintained, this market could gradually shift from a short squeeze rebound to a trend recovery driven by spot funds.
② Short-term decline in US Treasury yields
After the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, long-term yields briefly fell, providing liquidity relief for risk assets. BTC quickly broke through $70,000 as a result. 
But we must not be complacent—30-year Treasury yields soon returned to about 5.24%, indicating that long-term interest rate pressure has not truly disappeared. 
③ The 72000 breakthrough itself has technical significance
Previously, around 72000 was an important resistance level. If after the breakout it can achieve:
72000 breakthrough → pullback without breaking → volume expansion and renewed upward attack
then this level could turn from resistance into a new support.
So what’s next?
I will divide it into three stages.
First target: $75000
This is the next obvious psychological resistance.
If BTC can hold above 72000, 75000 will become the most direct short-term target for bulls.
Second target: $78000–$80000
If 75000 is also broken with volume, the nature of the market will clearly upgrade.
At this point, the market will start to trade "trend reversal" again instead of just a "rebound."
Third target: $85000–$90000
This target cannot be called out directly yet.
We must see:
Continuous ETF net inflows + increased spot trading volume + 72000 becoming support + US Treasury yields no longer rising continuously
Only when these conditions appear simultaneously can we further look toward 85000 or even 90000.
But the biggest risk here is also very obvious.
This rise has been very fast.
Starting from about $63,000 early this week, BTC has risen more than 15% in a short time. 
Moreover, this rise was accompanied by large-scale short liquidations; reports say crypto market short liquidations exceeded $3 billion, with BTC short liquidations about $1.77 billion. 
So the biggest fear now is:
Price continues to rise, but ETF funds start to reverse.
That would mean the subsequent rise increasingly depends on leverage and chasing buying, rather than spot funds.
In this case, the 72000 breakthrough could easily become a false breakout.
What I’m most focused on now is not "how much more it can rise"
but this structure below:
Strong:
Holding above 72000 → pullback to 70000–72000 without breaking → continued ETF inflows → renewed volume expansion
This is a relatively healthy trend continuation.
Weak:
Failing to break 75000 → quickly falling back below 72000 → significant decline in ETF inflows
Then we must guard against returning to the 68000–70000 range for consolidation.
So my judgment:
Short term: slightly bullish.
Medium term: starting to strengthen but still needs confirmation.
Key support: 70000–72000.
First target: 75000.
After breaking 75000: 78000–80000.
Strong trend market: then look at 85000–90000.
In a word:
The 72000 breakthrough itself is bullish, but what really determines whether this rise can go far is not how much it breaks through, but whether funds are willing to keep buying at high levels after the breakout.
The most positive signal currently is the strong inflow of ETFs again. If this pace continues over the next week, I will significantly raise my judgment on the continuation of this market; if ETFs turn to sustained outflows again, then this rise must be redefined as a rapid recovery driven by short covering.
So now it’s not advisable to blindly chase highs just because of the 72000 breakthrough; the truly comfortable position is to see if 72000 can turn from resistance into support. $BTC #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The UAE officially announced a complete suspension of all commercial and financial cooperation with Iran, directly cutting off Iran's crucial regional trade and capital transit channels. For a long time, the UAE has been a core trade partner of Iran, with Dubai serving as a key transit hub for Iran's connection to the global market. This ban significantly impacts Iran's economy.
First, foreign exchange circulation channels are severely obstructed. Previously, Dubai handled Iran's cross-border settlements and import financing, serving as the core channel for Iran to bypass sanctions and obtain foreign currency. After the suspension of financial interactions, Iranian companies face greatly increased difficulty in exchanging foreign currency and purchasing overseas equipment and goods.
Second, the overall cost of imports rises. Iran relies heavily on overseas imports for producing machinery, electronics, and consumer goods. Losing the UAE transit route means switching to longer logistics routes, which increases transportation expenses and trade fulfillment risks simultaneously.
Third, the suppressive effect of overseas sanctions is further amplified. The US has been trying to block Iran's overseas financial channels that circumvent sanctions. The UAE's current action aligns perfectly with the US blockade strategy, continuously shrinking Iran's external economic survival space.
Geopolitical negatives will continue to support crude oil prices, and rising energy inflation will indirectly suppress US stocks and crypto asset valuations. Ongoing monitoring of Gulf trade flow changes is necessary. $BTC $ETH $SNDK U.S. Stocks End Altcoins: The Endgame and New Order for Crypto Traders
1. Exchanges like Binance and OKX launching U.S. stock perpetual contracts (such as SNDK, Microsoft, Tesla) represent the perfect fusion of the world's most efficient trading tools (24/7 availability, high leverage, seamless clearing) and the highest quality real-world assets (U.S. stocks). When traders can directly speculate on U.S. stocks on crypto exchanges, altcoins lose their sole value as "speculative targets."
2. Inevitable zeroing out, zero fair value: Code and nodes have no technical barriers. Public chain tokens and altcoin air tokens have neither real profits nor balance sheet asset backing; essentially, they are just unrestrained chips in a game of speculation. History has already proven this (e.g., Luna's instant 99% crash, FTX collapse). Tokens without real performance and regulatory compliance are ultimately castles in the air.
3. Giants like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla have real moats, AI technology implementation, GAAP financial reports, and SEC regulatory protection. They have clear fair value and perfect narratives, making it impossible for them to go to zero overnight.
The ultimate landscape for the next three years
* Bitcoin (BTC): The only exception, existing independently due to its status as digital gold and a non-sovereign safe-haven asset.
* All other crypto tokens: Having lost their parasitic soil as the "only speculative objects on exchanges," their liquidity will be completely drained by high-quality U.S. stock derivatives and will face comprehensive exhaustion and zeroing within three years.
U.S. stock perpetual contracts are the ultimate destination for all crypto traders. From yesterday to today, Ethereum (ETH) has seen a clean and strong rally that has truly ignited trading sentiment in the market. During the session, it not only broke through the $2300 mark once, with a high approaching $2335, but in terms of elasticity and explosive power, it also left Bitcoin (BTC) far behind. Behind this big bullish candle, the most eye-catching aspect is the on-chain short liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion, as well as the complex battle between bulls and bears in the market. We can delve into the underlying logic and potential concerns of this rally from several dimensions: In the crypto derivatives market, the fiercest rallies are often not due to strong active buying, but rather the "self-destruction" of shorts being cornered. Epic liquidation scale: In the past 24 hours, on-chain ETH short liquidations have exceeded $1.1 billion, a liquidation wave of this magnitude is extremely rare in the recent narrow-range consolidation market. Whale forced liquidations: Single liquidation amounts reached approximately $108.15 million. After a high-leverage large position bet goes wrong, the triggered passive market buy orders act like a snowball, forcibly pushing the price sharply higher. Real institutional moves: Continuous net inflows into ETFs provide confidence. If short liquidations in the derivatives market determine the "speed" of the rally, then spot and ETF funds largely determine the "thickness" of this rebound. Continuous net inflow signals: On August 19 Eastern Time, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of about $189 million, marking the third consecutive $SOL 87.20, +13%, a three-month high. First time reclaiming the 200-day MA, Meme coins surged across the board with $BOME +46.5%, $TRUMP +19%. Short positions liquidated about $100 million, ETF daily inflow $2.1 million.
1. Alpenglow is the real catalyst. This upgrade reduces final confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, an 85x speed increase. Mainnet launch in Q3. If implemented, SOL's competitiveness in payment and RWA sectors will be fully enhanced. Slot time has already dropped from 400ms to 350ms, with a long-term target of 200ms.
2. Bitwise is still pushing Solana staking ETF tokenization, done through Superstate. Institutional products are accelerating rollout. But RSI is already signaling overbought, so a short-term pullback below $88 is quite possible.
3. The key is whether the $88 mid-range can turn into support. If it holds and pushes above the $98 upper range, there's an additional 16% upside. But if it falls below $76, the gains will be wiped out.
So overall, SOL's fundamentals are improving, and Alpenglow is the real deal, not just a PPT. However, after a +13% jump, chasing higher carries significant risk; better to wait for a pullback to $83-$85 for confirmation before proceeding. BlackRock BUIDL Frenziedly Penetrates DeFi Infrastructure: When All Collateral Turns into U.S. Treasuries, How Much Decentralization Remains?
The world's largest asset management giant, BlackRock, is silently reconstructing the entire DeFi foundational framework at a pace that sends chills down the spines of all crypto purists.
Its tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL, while continuously hitting new all-time highs in assets under management, is being wildly integrated by top-tier DeFi lending protocols and stablecoin systems. From Ethena incorporating it as a core reserve asset for synthetic dollars, to MakerDAO and Aave racing to set it as a top-yielding collateral, the entire on-chain world is undergoing a sweeping overhaul of RWA collateral.
On the surface, this appears to be a triumphant convergence of traditional trillion-dollar financial capital embracing on-chain finance, where DeFi protocols can finally earn around 5% real fiat risk-free returns effortlessly.
But if you truly see through the power struggle controlling the financial system, you'll find that behind this seemingly prosperous union lies the most fatal institutional co-optation of decentralization.
In the past, DeFi was called permissionless finance mainly because its underlying collateral consisted of crypto-native assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin that cannot be remotely frozen by any centralized entity. No matter how turbulent the outside world, smart contracts could still ruthlessly and automatically liquidate under mathematical rules.
But once tokenized U.S. Treasuries like BUIDL become indispensable core collateral for protocols, the entire game changes:
First, the sovereign censorship backdoor is fully opened.
BUIDL is backed by real U.S. short-term Treasuries, and every on-chain token transfer, liquidation, and redemption must embed extremely strict whitelists and accredited investor KYC in the underlying smart contracts. This means BlackRock and U.S. regulators inherently hold ultimate interpretive authority and superpowers to freeze assets with one click in the code. If geopolitical tensions or regulatory red lines arise, any DeFi protocol integrated with BUIDL will instantly lose its so-called censorship resistance.
Second, native on-chain liquidity is passively squeezed out.
When institutions and whales realize they can safely earn 5% risk-free Treasury interest by putting funds into tokenized U.S. Treasuries, who would want to lend to volatile, high-risk native DeFi lending pools? This leads to crypto-native lending yields being suppressed at low levels for a long time, native asset liquidity continuously bleeding out, and the entire on-chain financial pricing anchor forcibly dragged back to the Fed's interest rate track.
Capital always chases profit; Wall Street never does charity without returns. By using RWA to funnel cheap Treasury assets on-chain, they not only earn stable management fees but also seize the lifeline of the next-generation global clearing network.
Facing this irreversible institutional co-optation, my own asset defense strategy is very clear:
Enjoy the interest convenience brought by RWA, but never bet your entire net worth on collateral highly dependent on a single regulated entity. In the storms of bull and bear cycles, holding truly decentralized, backdoor-free native hard assets is your last air defense hole on the balance sheet.
BlackRock BUIDL's massive takeover of DeFi collateral—do you think this is a necessary path for on-chain finance to mature, or a complete compromise of decentralization spirit? When allocating interest-bearing assets, do you prioritize stable 5% returns or the permissionless security baseline?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 4. Sanliu Ling (601360)
360's large model focuses on the integration of network security and AI, launching AI security detection tools to serve government and enterprise network security businesses. The security business provides stable cash flow to support large model R&D. The C-end AI tool market is less competitive, making it difficult to capture leading market share. The vertical security track forms a differentiated route, avoiding the red ocean of general large models. Competition in government and enterprise security project bidding is fierce, and order acquisition is uncertain. The company's AI business growth relies on existing security customer resources, with a steady expansion pace. 4. Sanliu Ling (601360)
360's large model focuses on the integration of network security and AI, launching AI security detection tools to serve government and enterprise network security businesses. The security business provides stable cash flow to support large model R&D. The C-end AI tool market is less competitive, making it difficult to capture leading market share. The vertical security track forms a differentiated route, avoiding the red ocean of general large models. Competition in government and enterprise security project bidding is fierce, and order acquisition is uncertain. The company's AI business growth relies on existing security customer resources, with a steady expansion pace. 2. iFLYTEK (002230)
The Spark vertical large model deeply cultivates the education, government, and medical sectors, implementing numerous customized projects. AI learning hardware maintains stable sales, with hardware business supporting algorithm research and development. Government and enterprise procurement orders are the core revenue source. General large model giants continuously penetrate vertical markets, intensifying market competition. The delivery cost of customized projects is relatively high, with limited profit per project. The company avoids the general large model price war and focuses on industry-specific scenarios. The speed of performance release depends on local digital procurement budgets, with growth being relatively steady. $SPCX Practical Strategy:
1. The biggest variable for SPCX right now is not technical indicators, but the chip pressure caused by unlocking.
2. On August 20, another batch of SpaceX shares will enter the tradable phase. The market has already shown significant fluctuations, with yesterday's closing price around $139.65.
3. Therefore, if you see a sudden drop now, it doesn't necessarily mean the fundamentals have collapsed; it is very likely a short-term supply shock caused by unlocking chips.
4. Around 140 is an important short-term psychological level. Only if it can firmly hold above 140 with increased volume is it more suitable to expect a rebound.
5. If it continues to break below 140 and the trading volume significantly increases, do not catch the falling knife.
The most important thing for SPCX now is not to guess the rise or fall, but to wait for the unlocking pressure to be released.