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Robinhood Chain, 74% of this quarter's revenue was concentrated in 12 days.
Brendan Ma, who manages 800 billion euros in institutions, is asking: With so much activity on the chain, what does it have to do with the coins I bought?
But they can completely avoid buying ARB,
and still operate on it.
So the question is not "whether to buy," but "can you make money without buying it?"
What does this mean?
The path to making money bypasses the coin itself.
Infrastructure can be used, coins don't have to be held.
With Bitcoin, the coin itself is indispensable; transfers, storage, decentralization all rely on it.
With Arbitrum, the money is on-chain, but the value can reside off-chain.
Bitcoin cannot be bypassed, Arbitrum can — this is its fatal difference.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
After Netflix's subscriber growth peaked, the ad-supported plan became the second growth curve, essentially an iteration of the business model in a mature market. The low-cost ad plan attracts price-sensitive users, with the same user contributing both subscription fees and ad value, effectively broadening the user base. However, there are obvious drawbacks: ad revenue currently accounts for a relatively low proportion of total revenue, making it difficult in the short term to fully offset the decline in subscription growth; advertising technology and targeting capabilities are still inferior to traditional digital ad platforms; and increased ad inventory tends to cause downward pressure on CPM. Similar cases include Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video launching ad-supported plans; domestically, iQIYI and Tencent Video adopted a dual-track membership + advertising model years ago, relying on ads to tap into existing user value when subscriber growth slows.🚨 PPI month-over-month is 1.3%, more than double the expected 0.6%, yet BTC bounced back above $82,000 after breaking below $80,000.
🌡️ September PPI year-over-year is 6.3% (expected 5.5%). Energy rose 10.8%, gasoline up 20.3%. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the year-over-year increase is still 5.0%, indicating that price hikes are not just due to fuel.
📉 BTC briefly dropped to about $79,806 on October 15; CoinGlass shows approximately $972 million liquidated within 24 hours, with longs accounting for 91.7%. My judgment is that this drop mainly came from leveraged long liquidations, but just looking at these data, I can't confirm and might be mistaken.
🏦 On the other hand, from October 1 to 14, spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $539.8 million, and Binance funding rates also turned negative. The signals from the funding side are inconsistent, and I'm still thinking about how to interpret them.
📍 The levels I'm watching:
• $83,115 / $83,691: recent failed breakout points
• $82,000: current support area
• $80,000: tested on October 15
The FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28.
$BTC $ETH #USCPIAndPPITopForecasts #CanBTCHold80K #TeslaRoadsterUnveiled #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #Its first full quarterly report since going public nearly doubled revenue, AI business revenue rose 250% year-on-year, and Starlink business carried all the profits. The most intense was its single quarter capital expenditure of over $18 billion, of which $15.8 billion was invested in AI infrastructure, which directly caused the stock price to drop nearly 9%. Now the second full quarterly report is about to be released, will the AI burn rate slow down, and can Starlink's 12 million user base continue to grow? I think as long as its capital expenditure does not continue to surge beyond expectations this time, combined with the current heat of AI computing power, it is very likely that the sharp drop after the last financial report will not happen again. 📉 Weak rebound, don't mistake it for a reversal
$BTC and $ETH remain overall bearish, but I tend to expect a weak recovery first: a bull trap, then a pullback. Not a one-way drop.
CPI at 3.7% exceeded expectations, cooling down rate cut bets. CME shows the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 53.7%; the dollar index is at 102.7, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5.33%, hitting a 24-year high. Williams, Collins, and Goolsbee successively hawkish, repricing "higher for longer." If there is a sudden surge now, I only recognize it as a strong bull signal, but the probability is too low.
BTC dipped to 80,230 intraday, 80,000 is within reach, with 484 million liquidations across the network in 1 hour, longs accounting for 464 million. ETFs saw a net outflow of 261 million BTC and 129 million ETH yesterday, with BlackRock withdrawing over 100 million. However, on-chain whale holdings rose to 3.03 million BTC, the fastest monthly accumulation since February. Institutions sell, whales buy; behind the divergence, someone is betting on the direction.
My average BTC price is 63,000, picking up along the way to 80,000. Friends laugh at me for catching the falling knife; they wait for 50,000; but I fear missing out due to no position, which is more painful than floating losses. Only trading spot; contracts have brutal spikes, and my buddy was liquidated this morning.
Looking ahead only at: BTC 80,000, ETH 2,360. The real bottom for BTC is at 78,000 and the ETF cost zone; ETH is weaker, with ETFs having a net outflow of 783 million over 10 consecutive days⚠️#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #巴克莱推演SpaceX收购特斯拉方案 $TSLA
The share swap ratio is set at 0.7, while the current market cap ratio of the two companies is 0.71, about a 2% discount.
▪️ Barclays report simulates SpaceX acquiring Tesla through a full share swap
▪️ The timing window points to before Tesla's annual shareholders meeting, no later than December 6
▪️ Based on current valuations, SpaceX is about $2.1 trillion, Tesla about $1.5 trillion
▪️ Estimated ratio is approximately 0.7 SpaceX shares for every 1 Tesla share
▪️ Combined scale of the two companies is about $3.6 trillion
▪️ Tesla shareholders will not receive cash, but a certificate of the swapped shares
The disagreement is not about whether the merger will happen, but whether the swap ratio measures market value or control rights.
A full share swap means no cash consideration; pricing can only rely on the valuation ratio of both sides. SpaceX's valuation comes from primary market quotes, Tesla's from daily trading; these prices are formed in different markets, so the calculated ratio is naturally biased. Voting rights are another matter: Musk holds about 82% of SpaceX's voting rights, which will only increase after the merger.
The direction is to wait and see — only an official announcement from both parties counts as entering the process; the ratio in the research report simulation is just an estimate.Wow, I found a coin quietly rising $GRVT
Looks like it's worth checking out
What it is: A licensed self-custodial "on-chain Goldman Sachs"
GRVT is a hybrid decentralized exchange combining the matching speed of centralized exchanges with the self-custody features of decentralized finance.
It holds the first Class M license issued by the Bermuda Monetary Authority for on-chain derivatives exchanges, which is a key advantage for its compliance leadership in DEX.
Value capture: 100% surplus return, but "power-on" time is short
GRVT's tokenomics are clear: 100% of the protocol's economic surplus ultimately flows to GRVT holders through "ecosystem reinvestment + systematic buybacks."
But the key issue is the absolute scale of the "fuel." GRVT has not disclosed specific figures for its protocol revenue. Based on typical DEX fee structures and its roughly $107 million TVL, annualized protocol revenue might be in the millions of dollars range.
Core risks
First, the "trust paradox" of hybrid exchanges. Although it holds a Bermuda license, off-chain matching means there is still centralized dependence on the operator.
Second, a crowded competitive landscape. The derivatives DEX sector already has strong competitors like Hyperliquid, dYdX, Lighter, etc.
Third, recent security incident. In early October 2026, GRVT experienced a security incident involving about $3.8 million, with the attacker ultimately returning all the funds. $TAO
TAO rises over 10%, can the AI sector rebound turn into sustained demand?
Spot price increased about 10.67% in 24 hours, ranging from 256.4 to 289.1, with the price positioned at approximately 94%. Both the increase and position are relatively strong, indicating that it has received a relatively positive valuation in this rebound.
AI hype can attract capital, but sustained value requires a balance between real demand and incentive costs. Price increases alone cannot prove that the network output has gained more external payments.
If it stabilizes above 289.1 and maintains higher lows, the strength is worth continued tracking; if AI-related assets cool down and quickly give back gains, the sustainability assessment should be downgraded. If 256.4 is breached, the judgment must be revised, as industry growth cannot be directly equated with revenue growth for each token. One hour after the US stock market opened, BTC, ETH, and SOL all pulled back, but what I'm watching isn't the price, it's another data point.
$BTC current price 82358, up 1.47%. $ETH 2475, up 4.34%, $SOL 106.3, up 3.12%. It looks lively, but open interest is decreasing. BTC dropped from 2.58 billion to 2.45 billion, the long-short ratio fell from 1.88 to 1.76, ETH's long-short ratio dropped from 2.73 to 1.85. SOL went down from 2.72 to 2.31.
Putting these three data points together, the meaning is straightforward: leverage is retreating, not new money coming in. The price is pushed up by short covering, not active buying. After the US stock market opened, tech stocks didn't crash, giving crypto a breather, but this is a correction, not a reversal.
BTC faces heavy resistance between 83000-84000, ETH has trapped positions at 2500, and SOL's hurdle is 110. If these three levels aren't broken, the rebound is for reducing positions, not adding to them.
I still haven't opened any trades today; I don't chase this kind of corrective rally. Tomorrow I'll wait for the US market close to see ETF fund flows before deciding what to do.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #MSCI new regulations may remove Strategy and other BTC treasury companies from the index
The leader has something to say
I've written about the MSCI new regulations before; the core is that treasury companies like Strategy might be removed from the index. Today there's new data worth looking at. Someone in the comments did some calculations: if removed, passive funds would be forced to sell MSTR, potentially leading to an outflow of up to $8.8 billion.
I think this is a short-term negative sentiment but no need to panic excessively. There are two reasons. First, this is currently just a simulation assessment; the final list will be announced on November 11 and take effect on November 30, with room for negotiation on exemption clauses in between. Second, the stocks being removed from the index are treasury company stocks, not BTC itself. Passive funds are selling MSTR, not Bitcoin. BTC's buying sources are broader and won't rely solely on index funds.
MSTR fell 1.9% today, BTC slightly rose 0.10%, market reaction was muted. After closing my 81500 short position, BTC rebounded strongly, now I'm out of positions.
Resistance above is seen between 84000 and 85000, support below at 80000. Holding 82000 means consolidation; breaking below 80000 could lead to deeper correction. Do not chase highs or sell lows. Wait for a pullback near 80000 to see if there's support; if volume shrinks and price doesn't break, lightly try going long with a stop loss at 79000.
MSCI new regulations are a slow variable, not a directional switch. BTC short-term still follows macro trends.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Just placed a bet on OKX Planet that TSLA's earnings report will exceed expectations, choosing Yes.
It's not because I think Tesla will take off as soon as the Roadster is released. New cars, robots, and autonomous driving stories easily stir emotions, but their impact on this quarter's settled revenue and profit is actually limited.
What I’m more focused on is: the market’s current expectations for Tesla aren’t exactly relaxed. As long as the automotive business’s gross margin can hold steady a bit, energy storage continues to provide growth, and expenses don’t get out of control, the earnings report could show results better than the market fears. Plus, if management can clearly explain the upcoming deliveries, energy business, and FSD progress, the gap in expectations might not be small.
Of course, risks are also present: whether the profit recovery after price cuts is sufficient, and whether the automotive business continues to be under pressure, will directly affect the outcome. So this isn’t a blind bullish bet, just that I think from a position where "the market is already very cautious," the upside odds are worth trying once.
Position size isn’t large, just placing this bet first and waiting for the earnings report to verify.
#OKX美股财报季ZEC surged from 1073 to 1219 in this wave, looking like a counter-trend hero but actually more like a carefully arranged bull trap. While $BTC and $ETH are both drifting down, it insists on dancing solo; such independent rallies never last long. Even more bizarre is the long-short ratio at 20% to 80%—retail traders are almost unanimously short, while the main force is pushing this wave, clearly aiming to first blow out high-leverage shorts and then conveniently leave the chasing longs stranded at the peak. The question arises: if it really wanted to rally, why not break through the previous high of 1253 in one go? The answer is straightforward—there isn’t enough strength. The 1240 to 1300 range is a previous trapped zone; with the current meager volume, what can be freed? The positive effect of the November network upgrade has already been priced in, ETF funds continue to flow out, and the main players are just playing the old script of pumping to unload old holdings. Looking at the volume structure, the volume on the rebound is even smaller than during the decline, a textbook bull trap. Whoever chases is the bag holder. If $ZEC can’t break 1253, don’t talk about a faith reversal; it can’t even touch 1250—who is this rally really for? My judgment is straightforward: against the backdrop of $BTC and $ETH weakening simultaneously, $ZEC’s independent strength lacks sustainable support. Unless it breaks and holds above 1253 with volume, every rally is a window to reduce positions, not a signal to buy in. The 80% short positions held by retail traders are exactly the best fuel for the main force—but once the fuel burns out, all that’s left is a mess. #USCPIAndPPITopForecasts [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Can the foreign capital selling pressure ease with this rebound in the Korean stock market?
Pharaoh says directly, don't be fooled by this rebound candlestick. This is not foreign capital returning; it's retail and institutions holding firm underneath, while foreign capital is secretly fleeing above.
First, let's see how hollow this "recovery" is. On October 16, the KOSPI once rebounded over 3%, and Samsung and SK Hynix also rose more than 3%. But looking at the capital flow reveals the truth—foreign investors net sold 345.1 billion KRW that day.
Why is foreign capital fleeing so decisively?
First, the concentration of weights is too high; when one suffers, all suffer. Samsung and SK Hynix together account for over half of KOSPI's weight. This year, foreign investors sold 176 trillion KRW worth of just these two companies, accounting for 86% of total foreign selling. The foreign ownership ratio of Samsung has dropped to its lowest since 2008.
Second, the biggest "buyers" have stopped. The combined 55 trillion KRW stock buyback plans of Samsung and SK Hynix are nearing completion. JPMorgan estimates that last month's $23 billion Korean stock purchases were mostly supported by these two companies' buybacks.
Third, the AI narrative is fading. The market is increasingly anxious about whether "AI capital expenditures can be recouped." Even with Jensen Huang shouting that orders are booked two years ahead, it can't withstand the U.S. semiconductor sector losing $1.6 trillion in market value over six days. Korea's AI tailwind has now turned into a roller coaster.
$ETH $ZEC $SOL #韩股修复反弹，外资卖压能否缓解？ $BTC is being bought, $ETH is still bleeding
◆ ETF | One in, one out
October 15 (latest release): BTC spot ETF net inflow of $5.06 million, with BlackRock IBIT alone contributing $16.79 million; ETH spot ETF reversed with a net outflow of $60.22 million, with ETHA accounting for $44.39 million. Over 30 days: BTC attracted $2.1 billion, ETH saw an outflow of $360 million. Institutional money is more honest with its actions than words.
◆ Liquidations | ETH bulls suffer the most
On the same day, total network liquidations reached $937 million, 84% of which were long positions. ETH liquidations hit $286 million, 46% more than BTC's $215 million — despite ETH's market cap being only a fraction of BTC's, its leverage is much heavier; CPI hikes add fuel to the fire.
◆ Funding Rates | Near zero
On OKX, BTC funding rate is 0.0028% per 8 hours, ETH only 0.0006%, basically near zero. After leverage washout, neither longs nor shorts are crowded; this position is actually clean.
$BTC can be bought on a pullback to 81,000–81,500, and if it breaks above 82,500, look for higher levels; $ETH can be bought around 2,400 on a pullback, but only considered recovered if it breaks above 2,500. Conversely, if BTC hourly closes below 80,000 or ETH falls below 2,320, then stop for now. #SpaceXQ3Earnings English:
The Q3 miss is noise. $5.87 vs $6.94 est was 100% due to one-time Brazil tax charge. Excluding it, operating margin beat. Key is Ads tier = 50% of new sign-ups and FCF margin 23.11% - strongest in years. Market punished for a non-recurring item while ad business is inflecting. Bullish into Q4Tesla recently sparked market frenzy by unveiling the second-generation Roadster equipped with an air propulsion system. This "flying" new car resonates with investors' optimistic expectations for the earnings report. However, reality may be more sober than sentiment.
Although the Q1 earnings report exceeded expectations across the board, the market generally anticipates a year-over-year decline in Q3 profits, with revenue expected to drop to around $27.9 billion. Morgan Stanley raised the price target to $400 but maintained a "neutral" rating and warned of a potential net free cash flow burn of $11.7 billion for the full year. The real test lies in whether the Roadster and Robotaxi can transition from technological gimmicks to solid profits. The technology "flying" is just icing on the cake, but the short-term earnings pressure is the true touchstone for testing Tesla's valuation bubble. #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $TSLA Compound interest machine activated! $TRUMP long position yield directly 104%, just looking at it is intoxicating!
I entered at 1.816 with 50x leverage, now the price is 1.854, earning 0U but the percentage is very strong. The background is the widely circulated snapshot of large holders' positions at the dinner, plus the recent warming sentiment in the crypto circle, TRUMP is rebounding accordingly.
But on-chain funds are actually flowing out, the team holds a large share of the chips, and they could dump anytime. Also, there are many trapped positions at the 2.0 level, making the breakout very difficult.
So don't get dazzled by the numbers, keep an eye on 1.76, exit immediately if it breaks down. High leverage trades, preserving principal is the priority. $BTC $ETH #AnthropicIPO估值预期降至1.5万亿 Less than a quarter of the tokens are circulating on the market; after I figured out this calculation, I never panicked again.
HYPE currently has a circulating market cap of about $18.15 billion, with a fully diluted valuation of $77.95 billion; the circulating supply is about 222 million tokens, total supply 955 million tokens, with a circulation ratio of only 23%. Daily trading volume is $957 million, which is 5.3% of the circulating market cap, so there’s no worry about liquidity.
Because the supply is limited, the unlocking schedule will continuously affect the price. But also because the supply is limited, every penny the platform spends on buybacks has a stronger impact.
I don’t pay much attention to short-term candlesticks; I closely monitor the unlocking schedule and buyback income. With a rhythmic supply and incoming demand, this calculation adds up.
The 23% figure for $HYPE was intimidating the first time I saw it, fearing future token releases. But after seeing the platform consistently use funds for monthly buybacks, that fear turned into confidence.
Understanding supply and demand is more useful than reading candlesticks.
Faith is calculated, not shouted out.The current market situation is a textbook case of a double liquidation of longs and shorts. Last night, the price plunged below 80,000 and then made a V-shaped recovery; today it hovered around 82,000, grinding all day, with longs and shorts cutting each other but neither daring to make the first move. This is not a trend; it's the main players repositioning themselves.
First, let's talk about $BTC, Bitcoin. After the PPI data was released, Bitcoin dipped to just over 79,000, then violently pulled back above 82,000. Over the past 24 hours, more than 700 million in liquidations occurred across the network, clearing both longs and shorts, with the largest single liquidation exceeding 26 million. ETFs saw a net outflow of over 500 million from early October to the 14th, but on-chain data shows the U.S. has turned into a net inflow country for Bitcoin for the first time. The long-short ratio favors longs, funding rates have turned negative, and shorts are paying to bet.
Next, $ETH, Ethereum. ETH once dropped to 2,360, with liquidations exceeding 157 million, marking the largest single-day liquidation recently. But today it bounced back to around 2,450. In the last 12 hours, short liquidations have been more than five times those of longs, indicating that shorts betting on a decline are being forced to cover.
Finally, $XAUT, Gold. Gold broke below 4,100 yesterday but rebounded above 4,170, gaining about 1.6% intraday. The moves are driven by futures speculators, while gold ETFs and central banks have been accumulating steadily. Central banks have increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, adding 740,000 ounces in September alone. Gold buying is driven by allocation demand, not leverage; when it dips, real buyers step in.
The essence of this round of double liquidation is that the main players are redistributing chips. Don't heavily bet on direction at this time; wait until the market fully prices in the Fed's credibility discount before making moves. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Dogecoin's open interest dropped by 200 million, which actually makes me feel more at ease.
Here's another data point: the total market contract open interest was $1.46 billion in early October, now it's $1.26 billion, down 200 million in about ten days.
Many people only look at the price and ignore this. From my experience, when both price and open interest decline, it's not a bad combination. It indicates that the portion of funds borrowed to open positions is leaving, and leverage is retreating. Leverage acts as a booster when prices rise and a stampede when they fall. The previous several times prices accelerated downward, it was always due to concentrated liquidation of leveraged positions.
Now that some leverage has withdrawn and the price is hovering above 0.078 without breaking down, the market looks cleaner. Those remaining in the market have a higher proportion of spot and light positions, so if prices drop further, there will be less ammunition for chained forced liquidations.
Of course, $1.26 billion is not low, the long-short account ratio is still 2.5, so the bulls are still crowded. This is called improvement, not safety—don't confuse the two.
In my market notes, the $DOGE open interest column was only added in 2021. Before that, after losing many times, I didn't know if I lost to the direction or to leverage. After adding this column, I realized: most of the time, it was the latter.
The data is moving in a positive direction, albeit slowly. I'm not rushing it; I've waited eleven years.$APE It's almost the weekend, and there's not much market movement. Playing around with altcoins 😁, it surged up to a high of 0.157, but I feel this rebound for APE is about to end, a head and shoulders pattern is forming, and it's very likely to drop.
The current price at 0.156 is already close to the upper Bollinger Band, and selling pressure is gradually emerging above. This rally looks more like short-term funds speculating and then running. Weekend liquidity is poor, making it hard to keep pushing upward. The bullish momentum is probably about to be exhausted, and a slow decline might follow.
This is the kind of move where people just take a quick bite and run; it's not for long-term holding. Right now, Bitcoin is basically near its high, breaking 2500 is tough, and APE's rally is basically just a distribution phase. ETF withdrew 1 billion in two days, whales increased 90,000 $BTC on the 30th
🔬Technical upgrade: Coinbase released a post-quantum roadmap, BIP-360/P2MR entered draft stage, ML-DSA and other post-quantum signature candidates. Custodians have started engineering preparations.
💰Capital movement: ETF net outflow of 744 million on 10/14, 262 million on the 15th; on-chain whale holdings rose from 2.94 million to 3.03 million BTC, with the fastest accumulation speed since February 2026 on the 30th. New whale cost is about 77,000, realized market value share increased from 18% to 33%; miner sell pressure greatly reduced.
📉Technical adjustment: Glassnode: resistance at 88,000 and 100,000 as cost barriers above; support at 78,000 "real market average price" and 81,500 ETF cost below. On 10/15 BTC dipped to 79,950 then pulled back to 82,500, currently at 82,331. Options IV only 35%, max pain at 83,000, low volatility brewing a breakout.
🌐Information: US Treasury withdrew draft restrictions on coin mixing/self-custody, CFTC advancing regulatory framework; but 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.20%, AI stocks evaporated over 1 trillion, macro pressures valuations. BTC and USD 90-day correlation at -0.40.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Personally, I think the real focus shouldn't be on the number of subscribers, but on the advertising business. The low-cost ad packages can now attract quite a few new users. As long as the ad inventory fill rate and CPM can be maintained, this represents solid incremental growth and can be considered the next point of interest.The air thrusters have all been installed on sports cars; Tesla is really daring this time. I am more optimistic about the US stock TSLA continuing to rebound from tonight until before next week's earnings report. The new car has brought new discussions, and the pre-market price is also recovering. Nasdaq shows that TSLA's pre-market price tonight once returned to around $375, about 3.5% higher than yesterday's close of $362.44, recovering yesterday's losses. The pre-market rise looks good, but there must also be buying support during regular trading hours. If it falls back to around $362 and continues to decline, the gains after the new car launch will not hold, and I will turn to expect further adjustments. Yesterday's close is just an observation point and cannot be considered definite support. The official website lists different versions: the Thrust version uses air thrusters for acceleration, the Rocket version supports upward acceleration and aerial attitude adjustment, but is by invitation only and clearly states it is not approved for public road use. Putting this kind of thing on a sports car really makes me want to see how well it will sell in the end. However, demonstrating flying capabilities is still a long way from ordinary users being able to drive it on the road. The cars already delivered are still mainly Model 3/Y. Tesla delivered a total of 486,500 vehicles in Q3, of which about 478,200 were Model 3/Y, accounting for 98.3%. No matter how eye-catching the sports car is, you can't use the attention from the launch event to estimate the profit of this batch of cars. The Q3 earnings report will be released in the early morning of the 22nd Beijing time. The company has already reminded that delivery volume alone cannot represent financial performance; price and cost will affect how much profit is made. How much more profit is made per car after delivery will be more thanThis $BTC concentration indicator shows that BTC is about to change trend soon.
Historically, every time it approaches 15%, or shortly after exceeding 15%, there is usually a significant trend change, which could be either an upward or downward movement.
Now the indicator has reached 14%, greatly increasing the probability of a trend change.
The logic of the indicator is: how much BTC cost basis is currently stuck within a very narrow range of 82000 ±5%? (The last trading price at this level)
The more concentration there is, the more people's holding costs are clustered near the current price level, so after a trend change, there will be enough people making profits or losses to further drive the price.
Historically, this indicator has an accuracy rate of over 70%.
Now let's analyze the recent rise of this indicator in the context of the current Bitcoin market and the possible outcomes.
Because this increase in concentration happened at a new level after the price has already risen from 60,000 to 80,000, it represents a re-accumulation at a higher level, which is structurally healthier. As long as the price can hold this new cost zone without breaking down, the probability of an upward move during subsequent volatility expansion will be higher.
The key is to watch whether the concentration turns when the price is moving up or down next. If Bitcoin breaks below 80,000 downward, the situation will be much worse.
So, do you think it will go up or down? #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ I came across that VanEck has withdrawn the registration application for the Lido staked Ethereum ETF. I just took a casual look, and this is my personal opinion, which may not be accurate, so please take it as a reference.
Some bearish voices might think this indicates that regulators are still much more cautious about approving staking-related products compared to spot ETFs. The short-term optimistic sentiment around on-chain staking that everyone was expecting has fallen through, which might affect the sentiment of some funds sensitive to ecosystem narratives in the short term.
But on the other hand, the channel for spot ETH ETFs is already open, and staking products are just a subsequent extension. Withdrawing after a year of no approval is not really beyond expectations. In the long run, the big picture of institutional allocation to Ethereum hasn’t changed. I’m just holding and watching, not rushing to conclusions, taking it step by step.
What do you think about the impact of this withdrawal on the short-term market? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix Q3: record ad sales, but margin missed. Revenue $11.51B, +17% YoY.
Operating margin 28% vs 31.5% expected, dragged by a $619M Brazil tax charge.
Ad tier: 94M MAUs; ad revenue to more than double in 2025. Amazon DSP integration starts Q4. Q4 guide: $11.96B, ~24% margin. Ad momentum is clear; margin proof still pending. Today, Wash's remarks basically gave no clear direction and did not deny inflationary pressure. The market's mood changed really fast! The expectation for an October rate hike dropped sharply from about 27% to 15%. The market breathed a sigh of relief, and some altcoins quietly took off. The US dollar weakened, but Bitcoin $BTC still hovered around $82,000, and Ethereum $ETH also failed to break out clearly. The US spot Bitcoin ETF only had a net inflow of $5.1 million on the 15th, while Ethereum saw a net outflow of $60.3 million; from the 12th to the 15th, cumulative net outflows were about $146 million and $250 million respectively. Although rate hike expectations have eased, ETF funds have not yet strengthened accordingly. Currently, Bitcoin's daily chart still shows a downward structure and has not closed upward. At this position, going long won't push prices up in the short term, but shorting has limited downside space. The usual volatility range here is about 8%. I tend to expect continued high volatility and oscillation over the weekend, with a slightly higher risk of a pullback than a direct rally. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
My expectation is No, why?
Netflix's high growth phase has ended, entering a mature stage where profits are maintained through price increases, advertising, and efficiency, but engagement growth is weak and it is losing the attention battle against free platforms. Under the rapid development impact of AI, the traditional multimedia business pie is being divided by AI videos and TikTok short videos. Although the current stock price has dropped significantly, it still prices in a relatively optimistic probability of successful transformation. Once the earnings report continues to confirm growth deceleration, there is still room for valuation multiples to be revised downward.
The stock price has recently been around $70, with a decline of about 20-25% this year and about 40% over the past year, significantly falling from the 52-week high.
The company's own Q3 guidance: revenue about $12.86 billion, EPS $0.82, operating margin 33.2%.
Wall Street consensus is basically consistent: revenue about $12.88 billion, EPS about $0.82.
Analysts remain overall optimistic: consensus ratings are mostly "Buy," with an average target price around $90-95, corresponding to about 25-30% upside. Valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable level (P/E about 22-23 times, far below the historical average).
Recent negative factors online:
- Just announced about 6% layoffs;
- Change of content head, market doubts about content strategy;
- Even when performance meets expectations in recent quarters, the stock price often falls after earnings reports.
$NFLX #IEA警告柴油紧张至2027年，俄乌冲突加剧供应风险 $CL
Diesel inventories have fallen to their lowest level since December 1989, with a supply arrangement just finalized during the same period.
▪️ The IEA October monthly report extends diesel tightness into the second half of 2027
▪️ OECD government-controlled oil stocks fell to their lowest since December 1989 in August and continued to decline in September
▪️ Diesel products tightened counter-seasonally in Q3, with inventory declines in the previous three months far exceeding normal levels
▪️ The IEA judges that the US-Russia diesel arrangement is "unlikely to materially change the global diesel market balance"
▪️ Russian refining capacity is impaired; diesel is the product with the largest decline this year, accounting for about 25% of the total demand drop
▪️ Crude oil can be replenished through production, but diesel depends on refineries
The disagreement is not about whether the shortage will continue, but whether the "agreement" and "refining capacity" are the same thing.
The agreement solves where the cargo comes from; refineries solve whether the cargo can be produced. Russia’s impairment is refining capacity; shipping crude out is not the same as shipping diesel out. After inventory buffers are depleted, market rebalancing can only rely on demand reduction, which the IEA frames as a cost rather than an option.
The outlook is to wait and see — relief only counts when refinery utilization rates rise and inventories stop falling; relying solely on the agreement keeps cracking spreads strong.#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
The current "earnings report trading" in the US stock market is a crowded, competitive type of trading that is difficult for retail investors to achieve positive EV.
Buying direction with options suffers from a sharp collapse of high IV on earnings day, which consumes a lot of profit; buying direction with futures faces erratic spikes on earnings day and often ends up as liquidity for the main players in the long run.
Earnings reports, in essence, cannot change the trend of a stock.
In an uptrend, a good earnings report = continued rise, a bad earnings report = pullback then continued rise.
In a downtrend, a good earnings report = rebound then continued fall, a bad earnings report = continued fall.
Taking $SNDK as an example, the previous time was in an uptrend, the latter time was in a downtrend.
Based on personal trading experience, "counter-trend" earnings reports are actually better trading opportunities. A bad earnings report in an uptrend creates good opportunities to add positions; a good earnings report in a downtrend creates good shorting opportunities. HYPE, $ASTER, and $UNI are all doing buybacks, but their financial strength differs by a wide margin.
1. $HYPE is the benchmark with real money. The 30-day perpetual volume is close to 200 billion, with fees alone exceeding 48 million USD. They do buybacks every day without stopping, and holders receive actual USD. This "trading as dividends" model currently has no strong competitor.
2. ASTER is weaker. Around 0.71, its 30-day volume is only one-fifth of Hyperliquid's. Although the wallet count exceeds 2 million, most insiders know that the majority are driven by incentives. The base is too thin, and the fee scale is orders of magnitude lower.
3. UNI is the strongest today, with a single bullish candle rising over 7%. The Uniswap fee switch narrative has always been a starting gun hanging overhead; once implemented, it will be a qualitative change. But it plays in the spot DEX field, which is different from the perpetual track of the other two, so don't confuse them.
If you want to buy, I recommend UNI (more imagination) > HYPE (leader, stable) > Aster #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Simply relying on membership price increases and new subscriber growth has reached a bottleneck; the ad tier is Netflix's second growth curve. Don't just focus on revenue in the Q3 earnings report; pay closer attention to the scale of ad-paying members, ad inventory fill rate, and CPM performance. The incremental gross profit from the ad business is much higher than that of the traditional subscription business. Once ad revenue scales up, there is room for overall profit margin improvement; if ad business data is flat, relying solely on the membership side will hardly support the current valuation. Last night BTC crashed through 81,000, and the group chat was full of wails. But I stared at the liquidation data for a long time; both longs and shorts were wiped out, retail investors were panic selling, while MicroStrategy was buying more against the trend at 86,000, and the whale holdings also hit a new high. This script is too familiar.
Strategy is about to release its Q3 earnings report. On the surface, the 20.9 billion floating profit looks explosive, but I dug into the underlying logic and found a big hidden risk: MSCI might kick it out of the index. Once passive funds stop buying, its "stock-for-crypto" flywheel won't keep spinning.
So, will the main players use this negative news as an excuse to deliberately push the price down, washing out all the unstable leveraged positions? I think the probability is high. ETH bottomed at 2362 and then sharply pulled back, following the same pattern.
My thinking is simple: don't rush to go all in before the shakeout ends. As long as BTC doesn't effectively break the key support at 77,000, this is just a pullback to pick up people. Once these unsteady chips are handed over, the short squeeze in Q4 will truly be worth looking forward to.
Keep an eye on two signals: when ETF funds start to flow back continuously, and whether BTC can hold above 83,000.
Don't get left behind by short candlesticks; where there's an expectation gap, there's a price gap. $BTC $ETH
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Don't be afraid, all the bad news being out is actually good news 💪💪
There is a short-term need for a pullback as global storage stocks have been continuously adjusting recently. On October 12, Micron and SanDisk closed down 3.88% and 5.97% respectively, while Samsung and SK Hynix stock prices also came under pressure.
Although AI servers are driving storage price increases and profit growth, the market is re-evaluating supply and demand prospects. Changxin Storage plans to launch its new generation 4F² DRAM for server memory by the end of the year, with expected capacity ramp-up, but mass production capability still needs verification.
Samsung and SK Hynix stock buybacks are nearing completion, combined with foreign capital reducing holdings and previous large gains, amplifying short-term adjustments. The market is focusing on whether new capacity additions in 2027-2028 and AI demand can sustain industry profits and valuations. $ETH bounced back from 2318 to 2458, the candlestick looks like a reversal, but ETF funds are running out.
In the past two trading days, nearly $190 million net outflow from the US spot ETH ETF, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing 44.4 million.
What is happening on-chain at the same time?
A giant whale has sold 1601 BTC over 5 consecutive days, converting it into 132 million USDC, and then bought 53,095 ETH.
On one side, ETF holders are reducing exposure, while on-chain large funds are rotating positions.
The rebound elasticity of ETH/BTC has always been stronger—bouncing 5.5% from the low compared to BTC's 2.9%—but this time the rebound is driven by position rotation and short covering, not incremental institutional entry.
The candlestick is repairing, but the capital structure has not yet shifted. In sectors, AI, DePIN, and Layer2 have pulses, but incremental confirmation is needed.The heat in the pot has dissipated. The flame under the main dish, BTC, has shrunk from 86,000 all the way back to 80,000, the bottom of the pot is starting to burn, and the foam on top—3,209, about 258 million in spot fund net withdrawals—is being skimmed off spoonful by spoonful into the waste bucket.
The chef first checks the proportions. Market dominance still holds at 60%, meaning the main dish in this pot is still pressing down on the stove, and the spice jars dare not jump around. This is good news: the main dish’s volume hasn’t been diluted, the broth is still clear, not cloudy.
The trouble lies on the other side. The price reports across the ocean are hot to the touch, with CPI and PPI both exceeding expectations, and the flame of interest rate hikes is being fanned again. The casserole of risk assets is set on high heat, oil splattering, the lid jumping. The neighboring stall’s pre-made US stock dish XSKHY trembles along—same stove, same fire, same pot of soup flavor; no one can stay unaffected.
The real drama is in the cold chain. Since the end of August, big players have quietly moved in goods at 60,000, with costs all pressed between 80,000 and 86,000. This isn’t a speculative quick stir-fry; it’s a gourmet’s low-temperature slow cook—they accept the saltiness at this price level, they accept this heat.
So this 80,000 pot is currently a tug-of-war between two forces: the front of house is removing dishes, the kitchen is stocking up. What’s being removed is low-margin quick money; what’s coming in is the aged, preserved stock.
Now about the chili. Leveraged contracts are that jar of extra spicy chili—half a spoon to refresh, a full spoon to choke. In this unstable oil temperature and pressure market, adding more is just asking for a gut-burning spice. I’ve seen too many kitchens where the main dish didn’t burn, but the chili they added choked them out.
Altcoins? Just seasoning. When the soup hasn’t settled in flavor, sprinkling salt and pepper is all a gamble on luck—don’t shake your hand.
Look again at this 80,000 technical hurdle; it’s the baseline saltiness of the broth: if it holds, it means there are still people willing to dip their spoons here; if it doesn’t, you have to try the older broth at 76,000 to re-season.
Keep a close eye on the XSKHY side dish; it shares the same stove and fire as the main dish, and when linked, there’s no courtesy for leftovers—when the front of house withdraws orders, the kitchen has to change the dish.
What decides whether this dish succeeds is never how many times the front of house calls to remove dishes, but whether the kitchen is willing to add another scoop of the 60,000 goods. If they add, the slow simmer continues; if not, this pot of soup needs to be stripped to the bones and re-cooked, dumping both broth and residue to start over.
This 80,000 chopping board can withstand the knife, but not meat without sinew. #canbtchold80k Summarized the core points from Coinbase and Glassnode's Q4 crypto reports.
Approximately 1.75 million $BTC holdings have a cost basis between $89,820 and $93,905, indicating heavy selling pressure above.
In Q3, the US spot Bitcoin and $ETH net inflow was $7.5 billion, with long-term holders continuing to accumulate without selling. 74% of tokens are in profit but have not yet reached a high-risk zone. Key resistance is between $87,080 and $94,600, with support near $75,460. Most indicators suggest weak short-term returns; ETF funds and old coins holding firm are positives, but whether the supply above can be broken through is the core issue.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Term Structure Radar
$SOL mark spread is positive, but the best bid for buying near and selling far is inverted. Near-month annualized +2.01%, far-month annualized +0.37%, the near end is more expensive; mark near-far spread +0.09%, best bid spread for buying near and selling far -1.13%. The direction that can be executed is opposite to the mark.A storage news tonight: Changxin Technology's net profit for the first three quarters is expected to increase to over 130 billion, turning from loss to profit, and the chairman personally proposed to repurchase its own shares with one to two billion. The screen is again flooded with "Storage, the eternal god."
Traders need to learn to think in reverse. When a company repurchases with real cash at the peak of prosperity and a surge in net profit, it looks like confidence on the surface, but often deep down it means the stock price can no longer hold up on fundamentals alone and needs cash support.
This is the same principle as at the poker table: the harder the opponent pushes chips into the pot to show a strong hand, the more you should ask what they are afraid of. The real topping signal is never written on the income statement; it is written in these "must-do" actions. Do you believe Changxin's current repurchase is confidence or a bottom support?#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 An earnings report that exceeded expectations, but the corresponding stock price may not rise because the expectations have already been priced in[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
My DMs exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh, the commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked again, can oil transportation still hold up?
Pharaoh says directly, it can hold, but it's getting harder and harder.
At least 10 commercial ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz this week, the highest frequency since the war began. On October 11 alone, 6 ships were hit, and on the 13th, another 4. The Singapore-registered container ship "GFS Pride" sank directly, and 21 crew members evacuated urgently.
But Pharaoh has to be fair, oil is still flowing out. The Saudi East-West pipeline has restored a daily transport capacity of 5.8 million barrels. The ship-to-ship transfer tactic is still in use, with shuttle tankers moving oil from the strait to safe waters, then transferring it to larger ships. Persian Gulf export volumes once recovered to 80% of pre-war levels this month.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? In the short term, it's a combination of "bleeding + stampede." Brent crude oil stood at $106, the 10-year US Treasury yield simultaneously surged to 5.36%, and Bitcoin was hammered from 83,000 down to around 82,000. The expectation of rate hikes combined with geopolitical panic is hitting risk assets collectively. But Pharaoh reminds you, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to the highest since 2020. If geopolitical risks persist, its "non-sovereign safe haven" narrative will be repriced.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #霍尔木兹商船遇袭，石油运输持续承压 The negative news has been fully absorbed, which is actually positive, and I remain firmly bullish.
$BTC is currently hovering around $82,000. Today's movement is quite interesting — it briefly dropped to 79,800 overnight, broke 80,000 but was quickly pulled back, and now it’s stabilizing with fluctuations around 82,000.
Honestly, the previous impact from CPI and PPI has basically been digested. When the bad news is all out, it turns into good news. I am firmly bullish. 📈
The earlier pullback actually created a very comfortable entry point. I started buying $BTC before the data release, adding more at just over 79,000, with an average cost of 80,300. Tonight it surged to 82,900, so I took partial profits and let the remaining small position run. I’m quite satisfied with this rhythm — entry, adding positions, and taking profits were all well timed, and my mindset stayed steady. There’s still plenty of room to the upside, so I’ll hold patiently and won’t chase hastily. 🙌
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ #渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展 Keep an eye tonight on a corner you usually don't watch when doing leverage: the primary bond market. US banks rarely issue bonds on Fridays, with the longest maturity at 11 years; meanwhile, several companies have quietly postponed high-grade bond issuances these days.
The reason is clear—inflation is stronger than expected, combined with market concerns about AI trading, whenever US Treasury yields fluctuate, companies dare not issue bonds. To put it simply: the pipeline supplying liquidity to the entire risk market is losing pressure.
Assets like $BTC, which rely purely on liquidity and risk appetite, should never focus on their own candlestick charts but rather on the financing side's water level. When the water is receding, don't rush to dive in. Do you think this tightening is temporary, or is it just the beginning?#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Beware of a deceptive rebound! The key watershed for BTC/ETH is set, with hidden risks in the market
$BTC This round of rebound hides structural risks, with 82,000 as the current core watershed between bulls and bears. Last night, the price dipped to 79,775 but quickly recovered; the 80,000 level held well, but the 82,600–83,000 range above is strongly resistant and difficult to break through in the short term.
After the PPI data release, the market first dropped then pulled up, hitting a low of 79,694 and rising to 82,520. Although it looks like a strong rebound, there was a 24-hour total network leverage liquidation of $929 million, with long liquidations reaching $777 million. This rise is a typical short-covering rally; spot funds lack sustained follow-through, and the recovery strength is very limited. The market must effectively hold above 82,000 to confirm the continuation of the rebound; if it falls below 81,000, it will likely retest the 80,000 support.
$ETH The short-term critical defense line is 2,400. After rebounding from the low of 2,317, the golden retracement level at 2,397 coincides with the 2,400 mark, which is the core boundary between short-term strength and weakness. Holding 2,400 suggests a rebound target of 2,450; losing it will first test 2,380, with a risk of retesting previous lows in a weak market.
On-chain signals are clearly bearish: large whale holders reduced 170,000 ETH in 24 hours, market funding rates turned negative simultaneously, and large funds continue to withdraw. Short-term bullish momentum is weak, so operations must be cautious.Yesterday everyone was asking: Can the critical 80,000 level still hold?
On Friday, the answer came — it held.
This week saw three rounds of sell-offs, all directly hitting the 80,000 defense line: Tuesday at 80,168, Wednesday at 80,033, and Thursday's low touched 79,725.
Each dip's low point kept moving lower, but the rebound speed after hitting bottom got faster each time.
Three probes, three types of sell-off patterns, yet the 80,000 gate was never breached.
Yesterday's most dramatic spike down hit 79,725, but within a few hours it quickly recovered, climbing back above 82,000, currently priced at 82,114.
Many misread the source of this support: it wasn’t institutions holding the market up.
Recently, ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, with institutional funds still on the sidelines watching.
The real force resisting the selling pressure is the on-chain whales. Large holders’ selling pressure has clearly waned, and during this downturn, they have been quietly accumulating spot positions.
Market funds are polarizing: retail investors are redeeming ETFs and exiting, while on-chain whales keep buying in the spot market.
So the reality to recognize is: holding 80,000 is a fact, but this bottom is built by whales, not institutions.
Whales are long-term slow money; bottoms supported by slow money are more resilient.
Whales willing to buy at this level means the price is recognized by capital;
But as long as institutional funds don’t return, this rebound lacks the core momentum for sustained upward attack.
Going forward, watch two key signals:
First, ETFs turning from outflows to net inflows, indicating institutional funds re-entering;
Second, Bitcoin effectively stabilizing above 83,000, which confirms a trend reversal.
Current price is 82,000, still 1,000 short of 83,000.
Until both signals are fulfilled simultaneously, 79,700 can only be considered a phase bottom, not a confirmed trend reversal.
Let’s talk: do you think the 80,000 defense line can still hold at Monday’s open?