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Xiaokong has Yushu in hand. Although the robot track is considered a blue ocean, currently Yushu's solution is only for mall dance performances. Until robots can integrate into and replace some human work and life scenarios, it's just entertainment.
This is probably one of the reasons Yushu is eager to go public. After all, if the product cannot generate revenue in the short term, then they have to rely on stock price monetization; otherwise, they cannot sustain research and development. The robot track has a long and arduous road ahead.ETH的上涨逻辑和BTC有明显区别，BTC核心叙事是数字黄金、存量稀缺，而ETH上涨的驱动力分成杠杆资金、链上质押锁仓、机构ETF、生态叙事、大盘联动五层，不同行情阶段主导力量不一样。 第一，短期快速拉升最直接推手：杠杆空头回补。ETH合约清算盘集中，当价格靠近支撑位，大量空单被动平仓买入，带来短期脉冲式拉涨。但这种上涨只是杠杆资金博弈，缺少现货承接时反弹持续性很差，很难走出独立行情。 第二，独有的中长期底层支撑：质押锁仓带来流通量收缩。大量ETH转入质押合约长期锁仓，市场上可流通抛售的筹码变少。每当市场传闻ETF开放质押分红，会快速调动市场做多预期，吸引巨鲸分批买入转入质押，慢慢夯实底部支撑，这是BTC完全不具备的叙事逻辑。 第三，机构增量的核心风向标：ETH‑ETF资金流向。BTC‑ETF主打资产配置，而市场更期待ETH‑ETF开放质押收益，一旦ETF开启连续净流入，代表合规机构资金进场；当前ETH‑ETF持续小幅净流出，机构中长期做多信心不足，很难单独走出趋势行情 。 第四，生态叙事催化。Layer2、再质押、现实资产代币化等赛道出现行情时，资金会回流以太坊生态，#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案
The core of this draft is to open new financing channels for crypto projects: setting issuance exemptions and safe harbor mechanisms, so they don't have to go through the full securities registration process.
For example, startup exemption allows financing of $5 million within 4 years; financing exemption allows $75 million within 12 months, with the final limit subject to the official text.
Another key safe harbor clause: if the project team completes or permanently stops core management work, the tokens will no longer be subject to securities law constraints under the original investment contracts.
On the other hand, the CLARITY Act is still pending Senate vote, which will classify assets and divide regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC.
There are now two key points worth pondering:
1. Whether the SEC's rules can be implemented and smoothly connect with subsequent congressional legislation will directly determine the compliance boundaries for US crypto project financing and token trading.
2. This is only a draft, not the final law; there is still a long way from draft to implementation, so it cannot be directly regarded as an already implemented benefit.
The market sentiment is indeed shifting, and the SEC chair has frankly admitted that past regulation was "weaponized" against the crypto industry. But positive expectations ≠ reality; we need to wait for the official text and implementation.
What do you all think? Is this a real industry deregulation, or just a paper benefit? #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案
The SEC's release of the "Crypto Asset Regulation" draft is a very significant signal for the industry recently. Many interpret it as the "SEC giving the crypto industry a green light," but I believe it should not be understood as a complete deregulation; essentially, it aims to establish a set of enforceable rules.
The draft primarily designs two mechanisms: issuance exemptions and safe harbor. Issuance exemptions set thresholds for crypto investment contracts; projects that meet the conditions can complete financing without going through the cumbersome full securities registration process. Previously cited reference limits include a startup exemption with a four-year financing cap of $5 million and another exemption with a 12-month cap of $75 million. However, these are just proposals; the final conditions and amounts will be subject to the official published text.
The safe harbor provision is very critical: when a project team completes the promised core development work or permanently ceases project management, the corresponding tokens can be detached from the original investment contract and no longer be subject to securities law. This solves a long-standing pain point in the industry where many projects' early-stage financing was deemed securities, but the token's circulating status remained ambiguous later on.
However, it is important to note that the SEC's administrative rules and the CLARITY Act congressional bill pending Senate vote are two separate things. The CLARITY Act covers digital asset classification, the division of authority between the SEC and CFTC, and trading platform regulation, with a broader scope. The biggest suspense going forward is whether the SEC's draft can truly be implemented and whether it can be compatible with congressional legislation.资金不会撒谎，尤其是在成交量枯竭的亚盘时段。当二级市场的交易量像退潮般萎缩时，链上数据的走向却暴露出截然不同的真相。今天，我们不谈K线，只追踪资金留下的脚印。在成交量骤降近8%的背景下，全市场TVL不仅没有失血，反而逆势吸水。这绝非偶然，而是巨鲸们在缩量期进行的结构性调仓。 ══════════════ 📌 【全市场总TVL】$760.87亿 | 24h 逆势增长0.36% 📌 【全市场总市值】$2.189万亿 | 24h 缩水0.53% 📌 【全市场总成交量】$684.93亿 | 24h 骤降7.92% 📌 【市场情绪指数】46 (恐惧) ══════════════ 🔍 调查一：量价背离背后的“资金蛰伏” 现货市场成交量跌破700亿大关，$BTC 在 $64,388 附近窄幅震荡，看似一潭死水。但链上数据却讲着另一个故事：总TVL稳步爬升至760.87亿美元。当散户在二级市场因恐惧而交出筹码或离场时，大资金并未撤出加密生态，而是将资产沉淀在链上协议中。这种“二级市场缩量、一级市场蓄水”的背离，通常是变盘前巨鲸锁仓的典型特征。 🔍 调查二：第二梯队的“贴身肉搏” 剥开 $Some friends asked what to do if $OKB falls below 100?
Yesterday the contract upgrade was implemented, the good news was fully priced in causing a short-term sell-off, and today it bounced back a bit to 101.
It retraced from 109 down to 97, but the monthly chart is still up 30%. It rose from 65 to 109 in one month, and now the 11% retracement is just profit-taking, not a trend break. The supply of 21 million tokens is fixed, X Layer TVL has grown 10 times in half a year breaking $100 million, stablecoins exceeding 2 billion have pushed it into the top ten public chains, the deflationary and ecological logic remains unchanged.
Contract upgrade implementation = selling the fact. Previously, the upgrade expectation drove it up to 109, but the actual implementation broke below the 100 psychological level, with a single-day drop of -5.57% (7-day range 94.10-109.85). This is a typical "good news is bad news" scenario. MA5 at 103.37 is short-term resistance, MA10 at 100.30 is support near the current price.
95-97 is the short-term critical zone. MA20 at 93.85 is strong support; if it doesn't break 95, it remains the most resilient among the 6 coins; breaking 95 means looking at 90. Sentiment is weakening, but the fundamentals are clean and not deteriorating.
Trading strategy: buy in the 95-97 range with a stop loss at 92; once it stabilizes above 100.30 (MA10), look towards 103 (MA5), do not chase before breaking 109.85.#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
Xiaomi's latest Q2 earnings report shows revenue holding steady at 100 billion, but a closer look reveals a tale of two extremes.
On the smartphone side, the push towards high-end models is indeed progressing, with average selling prices hitting new highs and the share of domestic models priced above 3,000 yuan increasing. However, the cost pressure from rising storage chip prices is very real, leading to a contraction in shipment volume and a significant hit to gross margin, making the core business far from easy to sustain. Relying on smartphones to generate large profit elasticity in the short term is quite challenging.
In contrast, the automotive business has firmly established itself as the second growth curve. Quarterly deliveries have surpassed 100,000 units, gaining market share against the overall market downturn, with revenue accounting for nearly a quarter of the group's total revenue. However, it is still in the investment ramp-up phase; although scale has increased, losses continue and it is not yet profitable. The annual delivery target of 550,000 units is set, making the delivery pace in the coming months crucial.
Looking ahead, two key points stand out: first, whether storage chip costs can decline to rescue smartphone gross margins; second, whether the automotive business can gradually narrow losses through economies of scale after continued delivery growth. $XIAOMI The market is really tough right now. BTC is holding its range, but internal divergence is visible to the naked eye. Incremental funds are on the sidelines; most of the market action is just funds moving around within the market. Don’t get the illusion of a full bull market just because BTC has a slight rebound.
BTC current price ~64400
Short-term support 62200‑62600, resistance 65000‑65500.
ETF funds have started to show slight inflows, but GBTC is still continuously being redeemed. Institutional sentiment is split, with no clear bullish consensus.
On-chain, long-term holders have not fled their positions, but many large addresses are moving funds to exchanges, indicating some chips are ready to be sold.
We are currently in a news waiting period; everyone is watching the Jackson Hole speech. The probability of breaking upward and retesting support is about 40/60, with a slightly higher chance of a downward retest.
Try to avoid opening leverage in the middle of the range; frequent spikes are common, and stop-loss hunting back and forth is normal. Only after holding above 65500 will short-term upside open; a decisive break below 62200 will amplify market risk, and altcoins will be heavily hit.
ETH current price ~1908
Support 1820‑1845, resistance 1930‑1950.
ETH-ETF inflows are intermittent and lack sustainability. The key indicator is the ETH/BTC ratio; if this doesn’t rise, even if BTC goes up, ecosystem coins will struggle to have a big rally.
Layer 2 network actual data continues to grow, TVL is maintained, which is a solid foundation, but landing does not equal a price pump. Without new funds entering, good news often becomes a window for major holders to sell.
ETH is more volatile than BTC; when the market strengthens, it rallies sharply, but when it weakens, the pullback is also more severe. Position sizing should be controlled.
SOL current price ~76.2
Support 70‑72, resistance 78‑81.
On-chain activity remains high, AI-agent narrative heat is still present, and Grayscale’s ETF application is still waiting for approval.
Many people fall into the trap of treating the application as a positive catalyst and go heavy early, but if approval is delayed, a correction is likely.
SOL is a typical high-beta asset with no independent trend; its fate is completely tied to BTC. When the market consolidates, it oscillates within a range; when the market breaks down, its decline will far exceed BTC and ETH.
Derivatives positions remain high, with intense long-short battles, causing wild volatility, making it unsuitable for large position sizes.有一家机构持续不停买进以太坊，现在手里攥了581.5万枚，市面上差不多每20个以太坊里面，就有接近1个是它的。 更夸张的是，它把手里87%的以太坊直接质押锁起来拿利息，只有很少一部分留在手里可以随时卖掉。 锁进去之后，不能说想卖立刻就卖掉，要排队等退出。 这么做有两层心思。 第一，拿利息，这么多币锁着，每年光奖励就能拿到一大笔钱，不是单纯赌涨价赚钱。 第二，摆明态度，短期不打算大批量抛售砸盘，对以太坊$ETH 长期比较看好。 但是这里面也藏着现实问题。 绝大部分币被锁住，手上能拿来变现的筹码很少。 真要是遇到急需用钱的时候，想大规模卖出，流程很慢。 现在市面上能流通抛售的以太坊变少，短期对价格算是个利好。 可长远看，这些锁起来的币不是永远不动，未来排队解锁出来，就会变成潜在抛压。 同样是大户囤币，有的机构拿着比特币$BTC 就放着不动，啥收益都不要。 这家机构不一样，买以太坊不光赌涨价，还要靠它年年产生收入。 #BitMine增持至581.5万枚ETH，质押率约87% #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #BitMine成全球最大ETH质押方 The most notable thing last night was not the surge, but that it didn't drop.
$BTC is still holding steady around 64,000, and $ETH has climbed back above 1910. The small positions I had before are now somewhat profitable, but I won’t rush to add more at this level. 🙂
$BTC faces resistance between 64,800 and 65,500; only a strong volume-backed close above 65,500 will make me consider it a breakout. ETH needs to hold above 1900 and break through 1930 to 1940 for strength to be further confirmed.
Currently, the market still lacks capital momentum. The Strategy selling 1,638 BTC is true, but it’s not a full exit. To be precise, these funds are mainly used to pay preferred stock dividends and repurchase STRC; the replenishment of USD reserves mainly comes from selling MSTR shares at the same time. Even they are prioritizing cash flow now, which is worth noting. 📌
The vote on the CLARITY Act has been postponed to September. The current market is resilient and has potential, but the breakout is not yet confirmed. If a substantial positive catalyst comes later, the market could indeed react strongly. 👀#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
Xiaomi Q2 Earnings Report: Cars Racing Ahead, Phones Under Pressure, AI as the Hidden Trump Card
Xiaomi's Q2 report is out, with revenue of 108.9 billion appearing lively, but the "gold content" deserves a closer look. In short: Cars and AI are desperately trying to save the day, while the core phone business is indeed holding things back.
The phone business is facing growing pains. Due to rising storage costs and strategic shipment adjustments, phone revenue fell 7.5% year-over-year to 42.1 billion, with shipments dropping 26.5%. The only consolation is that the average selling price (ASP) surged 25.9% to a record high.
The real growth engine lies in cars. Revenue from automotive and AI innovation businesses reached 24.9 billion, up 17.1% year-over-year. SU7 and YU7 deliveries are steady, but gross margin fell from 26.4% to 19.2% due to changes in delivery structure, with a quarterly operating loss of 2.6 billion; car manufacturing is still burning cash.
Additionally, Xiaomi's AI business made its debut as a standalone segment, contributing 1 billion in revenue, becoming a hidden highlight in the report.
Overall, this is a pressured earnings report. Phones are sacrificing profit for space, while cars are supporting the growth ceiling with scale. This high-stakes "people-car-home" gamble is indeed moving toward "cars saving the day." Do you have confidence in Xiaomi's future stock price? In theory, Bitcoin's current correction of 59% to 67% should happen, but it's unclear what event will trigger it. Also, the market trend was interrupted by a "black swan" event, so it hasn't fully played out and is still hanging in suspense.
The Child of Fortune once calculated the peak to be between $109,200 and $126,000 when Bitcoin was at $40,000, and this has been verified.
However, calculating these trivial things is a waste of fortune.
Ethereum should see a major rally this year to heal the wounds left unfinished last October.
$BTC $ETH $LDO BTC每一轮上涨，通常是衍生品资金、链上现货筹码、宏观预期、消息情绪四类力量叠加驱动，不同阶段主导力量各不相同，拆解如下。 第一，短期反弹最直接推手：空头回补逼空。当价格靠近关键支撑位，大量集中的空头头寸被触发清算，空单被迫平仓买入BTC，被动买盘快速推升价格，属于杠杆资金带动的脉冲行情，这是很多短期快速拉升最直接的动力 。这种上涨持续性偏弱，如果没有现货资金接力，行情很容易再度回落。 第二，中长期底层买盘：链上巨鲸持续沉淀筹码。过去60天大型持币地址累计增持约4.3万枚BTC，价格下探至低位区间时，长线资金不断从市场吸纳筹码转入冷钱包锁仓，流通盘面可抛售筹码变少，抛压逐步减轻，给行情提供底部支撑。这类资金不会快速拉盘，但会慢慢筑牢底部区间。 第三，机构增量风向标：BTC‑ETF资金流向。当ETF重新开启持续净流入，代表合规渠道的机构资金进场，是能够带动趋势行情的核心增量；单日短暂流入只能短暂提振情绪，只有连续多日稳定流入，才具备推动新一轮趋势行情的力量。 第四，宏观与消息面情绪催化。降息预期变化、地缘避险情绪、政策利好传闻（如即将到来的白宫加密闭门会议预期），会改变市From the weekend to today, $BTC has climbed out of the 62,000+ pit, steadily pushing up to over 64,000 and touching 65,000.
Honestly, this rebound wasn't unexpected.
First, the US July retail data was weaker than expected, causing the market to immediately lower rate hike bets, the dollar softened, and risk assets caught a breather.
Then, spot BTC ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of about $137 million, showing institutions are genuinely buying.
Plus, with the White House crypto summit tomorrow, Trump is set to meet CEOs of giants like Coinbase and Ripple, fueling early expectations of regulatory breakthroughs.
There's also a detail—the funding rate surged to a nearly 20-month high, shorts were liquidated for about $120 million, a classic short squeeze plus long push.
⚠️ But don't get carried away.
This rally is heavily leveraged; the 65,000 to 66,000 range is a key resistance zone, and without volume breakout, it can only be considered a range rebound.
The FOMC minutes this week are the real variable; if hawkish, all gains could be given back.
Historically, August is a weak month for BTC, and with the low probability of the "CLARITY Act" passing, the risk of a pullback after the good news is something to watch.
Personally, I think don't rush to chase before firmly holding 66,000. Hold 64,000 first before making moves. SPCX is currently around 142.32, with short-term prices trading within the 127.89–156.33 range. Sellers have a slight advantage in the order book, but the direction may still fluctuate, so a short grid is used to handle volatility and avoid chasing one-sided trading. Strategy Parameters SPCXUSDT Futures Grid | Short | 10x Margin: 10.00 USDT Range: 127.89–156.33 Grid: 50 bars Current Profit: +0.0002 USDT (0.00%) Estimated Strong Dollar: 164.76 The strategy has started running and is currently in its initial stage.BTC 64,500, back to a familiar position.
In the past 24 hours, the highest reached 65,058, the lowest 64,027. Up about 1.5% in a week, with a market cap of 1.3 trillion.
But three sets of data are contradictory:
First, Bitcoin ETF net inflow in a single day was $297 million. BlackRock $160 million, Fidelity $110 million. Institutions are buying.
Second, whales have increased holdings by 43,000 BTC in the past 60 days, worth $2.75 billion. This started when the price dropped to 60,000. All holding tiers are buying.
Third, the funding rate has risen to a nearly 20-month high. Longs are leveraging up, willing to pay higher costs to hold positions.
Institutions are buying, whales are buying, leveraged longs are adding positions.
So why isn’t the price rising?
Spot trading volume is too low. Derivatives are active, but spot has no follow-through. Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility is already lower than Nasdaq; the market is waiting for direction.
My judgment: On-chain funds are quietly accumulating, but macro factors (30-year US Treasury at 5.31%, US stocks falling) are suppressing the price. Some are slowly taking positions, others are waiting for clearer direction.
Holding spot without moving. Waiting for volume to pick up.
Comment below with your judgment—will it break 65,000 this week?
$BTC $ETH APR vs. RAVE Analysis (Personal Opinion and Market Analysis Combined with AI) 😭
Why RAVE Could Surge to $28 Back Then
RAVE has a total supply of 1 billion, with only 23-26% circulating during the rally phase, and the tokens were highly concentrated in the hands of large holders.
Most of the $28 price was due to contract short squeeze spikes; actual spot trading volume was very low, representing an extreme short squeeze scenario;
At that time, market sentiment was extremely bullish, and a large number of short contracts were liquidated in a chain reaction, forcibly pushing the price up;
• Outcome: a 98% crash, directly falling back to the $0.2-0.3 range, trapping the vast majority of late buyers.
Key point: $28 was not a healthy rise but a one-time frenzy controlled by whales plus contract short squeeze, not replicable.
APR Fundamentals
• Total supply: 1 billion APR, current price $0.2007, circulation rate 27.78%, close to RAVE’s circulation rate;
• All-time high only $0.74, never experienced a 100x rally like RAVE;
• On August 23, a large institutional unlock will occur, with institutional cost around $0.1-0.2, showing strong selling pressure;
• If APR were to rise to $5: circulating market cap would reach $1.38 billion;
If it rose to $10: circulating market cap would approach $2.8 billion.
Realistic Judgment: The probability of APR replicating RAVE’s surge to $5-10 is extremely low
1. RAVE’s surge was an extreme short squeeze during a specific period, rare and hard to replicate; APR faces large unlock pressure, with institutions ready to sell, making a multi-tens-of-times rally very difficult.
2. APR’s all-time high is only $0.74, indicating less capital enthusiasm compared to RAVE’s peak.
3. Even if a miracle short squeeze pushes it high, the likely outcome is a repeat of RAVE: a rapid crash after a sharp rise, making it hard for ordinary investors to exit at the top.
3. Current APR Trend and Buying Situation
• Just dropped from 0.2228, down 7.8% in 24 hours;
• Resistance above: 0.21-0.225; support near 0.18;
• Buying strength: mainly contract-driven speculation, spot buying is not strong; with the August 23 unlock approaching, capital will be cautious.
• Scenario Analysis
◦ Scenario A: short-term rebound to 0.22 resistance, then continue to fall under unlock pressure;
◦ Scenario B: supported by a strong bull market, unlock selling pressure absorbed by new capital, challenging the all-time high of $0.74. $5-10 is a low-probability fantasy.
Summary: For those still hoping for a 100x moonshot token, I think it’s unlikely, but $1 is still possible… 😂
Actually, I’m also looking forward to a moonshot token,
But honestly, this overall analysis is a bit tough… 😭 I hope it becomes a 100x moonshot, I’m bottom-fishing with heavy positions… 😭#美国财政部推进GENIUS稳定币规则 #IREN首个微软AI云项目交付，矿企转型受关注 $APR #花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容 $BTC $ETH Real-time Data Analysis of Total Trading Volume in the Crypto Market (August 19, 10:18)
In the past 24 hours, the total trading volume across the entire crypto market was $47.56 billion, down 14.3% compared to the 7-day average. Overall trading continues to shrink, with a strong market sentiment of caution. Breaking down the trading structure, derivatives trading still holds absolute dominance, with contracts and options combined accounting for about $34.72 billion, or 73% of the total volume; spot trading was only $12.84 billion, showing significantly low spot capital activity and insufficient willingness of incremental spot funds to enter the market.
By coin, BTC and ETH together account for nearly 42% of the total market volume, with capital highly concentrated in these two major mainstream assets; the vast majority of other small and mid-cap coins continue to see low trading volumes. Only short-term hot altcoins like xSNDK and PUMP have experienced phased pulse-like volume surges, but after the heat fades, trading quickly declines, showing very clear capital rotation characteristics.
From the volume-price logic perspective, the current low-volume oscillation indicates the market lacks a unified directional consensus, and leveraged funds are unwilling to actively bet on a one-sided trend. In an environment without news catalysts, the thin liquidity under low volume makes it easy for a few large orders to trigger short-term rapid spikes, sweeping leveraged positions on both long and short sides. Only when the total market trading volume continuously rises above $65 billion does it indicate that off-exchange funds are re-entering the market.
Currently, most trading funds are waiting for news from the White House's closed-door crypto meeting. Until clear signals emerge, it is difficult to see large-scale volume surges.
This article is for market review only and does not constitute any investment adviceLet me briefly share my personal view.
Crypto assets have strong cyclical characteristics, but not all crypto assets can break their historical highs during cycle transitions, especially those with an "unlimited total supply."
This has been proven in the current cycle, where major assets like ETH, SOL, and DOGE struggle to surpass their previous highs. So, regarding ETH reaching $7000 in the next cycle? I am skeptical and have no confidence in that.
If consumption does not keep pace with release, even if the market cap increases, the value per token actually decreases.
We see that in this cycle, assets that can break previous highs include BTC, BNB, ZEC, and even XRP—all of which happen to have a capped total supply. Is this a coincidence?
Of course, having a capped supply does not guarantee repeated new highs. This is closely related to asset attributes, token distribution, and supply-demand dynamics.
For ETH, the question is: where is the new demand coming from? If it relies solely on treasury companies buying, that is far from enough, or rather, they simply cannot buy it all.
Ultimately, it still depends on market forces, such as ecosystem development and large-scale applications, to continuously provide the driving force for demand.Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate has reached its highest level in 20 months today. BTC rebounded from the low below $60,000 in June, with investors continuously increasing bullish leveraged positions, causing the funding rate to soar.
First, let's clarify what the funding rate is:
The funding rate is a periodic fee paid between longs and shorts in perpetual contracts, designed to keep the contract price close to the spot price. A positive rate means longs pay shorts—the more longs there are, the higher the rate and the greater the holding cost.
What does this number mean today:
On one hand, the funding rate hitting a 20-month high indicates extremely bullish sentiment in the derivatives market. If BTC breaks above $66,000, these long positions will create positive momentum, accelerating the upward move.
On the other hand, this extreme crowding of longs increases downside risk—once price support fails, forced liquidations will trigger a chain reaction, amplifying volatility.
The key price contradiction is here: BTC is currently around $64,100, consolidating below short-term moving average resistance near $66,300 without a valid breakout. Longs are paying the highest holding cost in 20 months, yet BTC has not broken through.
Historically, when the funding rate reaches extreme highs, it often signals a short- to mid-term top rather than an acceleration of the trend.
Whether $66,000 can be broken and held is the watershed between unlocking further gains or triggering a short squeeze cascade.SpaceX(143) Review and Plan
Review
Yesterday before the market opened, we established short positions around 144. At the open, it dropped to 139, then pulled back to 142 and oscillated. Despite the overall market dropping -1.5%, it rallied intraday to 146, then fell back to close at 143!
Positive aspects
1. The open was strong; it quickly bounced back after breaking below 140, indicating the bears lacked strength!
2. The intraday rally shows the bulls are very resilient and not afraid of adjustments!
3. No drop before the 8.20 unlock, suggesting that after the unlock, the negative impact will be fully absorbed and turn positive!
Negative aspects
1. The late pullback shows some bulls are still worried and may exit!
2. The high points are gradually lowering, from closing at 146 to closing at 143, entering a weak zone!
3. The 8.20 unlock means increased supply; if it doesn’t rise, it will shake the bulls!
Overall, if it can hold 140, the pre-unlock drop should be limited, and the focus should be on the post-unlock market.
A brief analysis: The 8.6 unlock didn’t cause a drop because it had already fallen deeply before; not dropping before the 8.20 unlock is not a good sign for after the unlock!
Plan
Although last night’s drop wasn’t as expected, the late pullback remains bearish. Continue holding the short positions!
Brothers, I will write an analysis of the chip situation after the 8.20 unlock shortly. Stay calm and steady! Wait for me! 👏🏻Last night, the US stock market was all green, but the first thing I looked at wasn’t the Nasdaq, because I’m that old short-seller.
At yesterday’s open, there was a battle between bulls and bears. $SNDK dropped from 1827 to around 1566, then bounced back to 1612, just touching my cost line at 1615.
Honestly, there’s nothing to brag about this time. It’s not that I suddenly understood SanDisk better; it’s that the US Treasury market changed the valuation yardstick.
The 30-year Treasury yield previously surged to around 5.3% and is still near the highest level since 2007.
The Nasdaq fell 1.3% last night, with Nvidia, Micron, and Broadcom being the main drags.
Yields haven’t continued to spike, but as long as they don’t come down, the pressure remains.
When long-term bonds can yield 5.3%, capital naturally asks: why should I pay a high price now to prepay a storage company’s profits from 2028 to 2030?
That’s the awkward position SanDisk is in.
Long-term agreements haven’t expired, and AI storage demand hasn’t disappeared, but the market had already priced in all the good news for the next few years at once.
When the discount rate rises, the farther-out stories get discounted more heavily.
So last night, you can’t blame the Treasury market entirely; the AI trade being overcrowded and valuations being too full were also triggers; but the Treasury market determined how fast this fire spread.
The short position finally returned near cost, but I don’t dare to take the macro window as my own skill level.
Next, just watch the 30-year yield: if it stays pinned high, high-valuation rebounds will be very tiring; if it falls significantly, shorts also need to guard against a sudden recovery surge.
$XAU $BTC
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Speaking of which, failure is the mother of success. Let's first review yesterday's mistakes.
8.18 BTC goat short position review:
Yesterday's plan was to short on the rebound at 64450‑64600, with a stop loss at 64780, but the stop loss was hit and the position was closed.
Core mistake: misjudged the brief 1-hour spike and stagnation as a bullish exhaustion. In reality, it was just a bullish continuation with a shakeout; 64450‑64600 was not an effective strong resistance, and the trend momentum directly broke through the resistance and stop loss level.
Lesson: In a strong bullish market, short-term resistance does not equal a top, and the upper Bollinger Band should not be blindly used to guess a top and short. Without a major top or key support break, do not prematurely counter-trend to try to catch the top. Trading should prioritize respecting the major trend; short-term stagnation can be replaced by sideways movement instead of a decline. $BTC 当汽车的油门踩过手机的刹车：小米Q2的千亿困局，藏着加密市场下半年最狠的启示 8月18日小米交出Q2答卷——单季营收1089亿元，经调整净利润62.19亿元、同比骤降42.6%；汽车交付104199辆、同比涨28.2%，手机出货3120万部、同比却跌了26.5%。这不是汽车救场，也不是手机拖后腿，是小米在用手机的血，喂汽车的肉。 【老手的碎碎念】 看懂这份财报，比你看十篇行情分析都有用。 把镜头切到加密盘。2026年6月29日，BTC失守6万美元、最低砸到58888美元，恐慌贪婪指数跌到12的极度恐惧区，24小时超6万人爆仓、总金额1.73亿美元。资金在干嘛？从山寨逃，往BTC钻。 BTC市占率攀到58%以上，是自2021年4月以来最高。ETH周跌9.6%，DOGE周跌13%，XRP跌8.1%，SOL相对抗跌也就跌3.4%。 这和小米Q2的剧本，一模一样。 小米手机的窘境，就是山寨币的窘境。存储芯片涨价，LPDDR5X环比涨78%到83%，LPDDR4X涨70%到75%，手机毛利率从11.5%被压到8.5%。小米怎么做？砍中低端、保ASP。 出货少了1120万部，但均价从1073.Short position floating profit 22%, but ACE cut made my hands shake
short ACE @0.2009, TP0.1466/SL0.1737, floating profit 22.4%. A coin that dropped 56% rebounding is like free money, I'm waiting for a second dip.
long LINK @9.487 floating profit 0.76%, counter-trend +7.2% momentum still there, SL fixed at 9.10.
US stock tokenization 1 up 4 down, XSPY sideways, XSKHY up 0.54%, money is shifting to ARK innovation. XSOXL down 0.36%, semiconductor bulls are not awake yet.
BTC volume shrinks stuck at $63K, volume ratio -42.6%, this rebound is fake.
$OKB $105.91, only down 1%, wealth management still earning interest as usual, no matter how hot US stocks are, this side is steady as an old dog.
Are you holding this ACE position? Where to set SL? Leave your thoughts in the comments.
#OKXPlanet #ACE #LINK #OKB
Crypto assets are high risk, this article does not constitute investment advice, purely personal opinion. Today, overall risk appetite in the Asian session weakened rapidly. Japanese and Korean stock markets plunged sharply in early trading, with the Nikkei 225 dropping over 3%. The Korea Composite Index widened its intraday decline to 6%, exchanges triggered algorithmic trading controls, semiconductor heavyweight stocks plunged collectively, and the technology sector saw concentrated profit-taking. The three major A-share indices opened lower simultaneously, with market risk aversion rising rapidly, Hong Kong stocks also coming under downward pressure, and the entire Asia-Pacific equity market entering a short-term risk release phase. The first layer of impact is the transmission of short-term risk sentiment. Crypto is still classified by the market as a high-β risk asset. The collective sell-off of tech stocks in Asia-Pacific markets will lower overall risk appetite in early trading, potentially triggering short-term selling pressure in the crypto market. South Korea is also a highly active crypto trading market. When the local equity market panics, some local funds simultaneously reduce their crypto positions, causing short-term liquidity disturbances. The second layer is differentiated transmission logic. A sharp drop in the storage sector's underlying stocks will directly put pressure on xSNDK sentiment; Meanwhile, the gold-mapped token XAUT benefited from rising risk aversion and attracting capital attention, resulting in structural divergence. Mainstream coins BTC and ETH have not followed the sharp decline for now, mainly because the market's core focus is on the upcoming White House crypto closed-door meeting, and the news expectations have offset some panic caused by external markets. Overall, the Asian trading market has mostly brought short-term sentiment shocks, making it difficult to sustain a rally. What truly determines the future direction are policy news and post-market capital movements in the US market. If panic in the Asia-Pacific market continues to spread, it will only be possible to bring it forward汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？小米Q2这份财报，藏着Crypto本轮周期最该看懂的仓位密码 2026年8月18日盘后，小米交出Q2成绩单：单季营收1089亿元重回千亿，智能电动汽车交付104199辆、同比涨28.2%，但经调整净利润62亿元、同比骤降42.6%，手机毛利率从11.5%跌到8.5%，汽车及AI创新业务分部经营亏损26亿元。 【老手的碎碎念】 看完这份财报我第一反应是——这哪是小米的故事，这分明是当下Crypto市场的镜像。 一边是汽车，单季交付首破10万辆，收入239亿元，是整个集团最靓的增量曲线，可它还在亏，二季度经营亏损26亿。一边是手机，收入421亿元、出货量3120万台，ASP涨到1351元创历史新高，可毛利率被存储芯片涨价从11.5%活生生啃到8.5%。 这不就是BTC和山寨的关系吗。 BTC现在卡在63000到64500美元这个箱体里磨，像个负重爬坡的整车厂，交付量（算力/机构持仓）在涨，可单位经济模型（挖矿毛利、ETF净流入）被电费、被宏观利率啃得吱吱响。山寨呢？少数妖币单日飙35%，绝大多数流动性枯竭、刷新低点——像极了手机业务"量降价升、毛利塌方"的窘境。 真$BTC Short-term Strategy Summary (8.19)
· Current Price: ~64,410-64,600 USD, 24h increase 0.35%-0.60%
· Key Ranges:
· Support: 63,600-63,800 (4-hour midline) / 62,400-63,000 / 59,800-60,400
· Resistance: 65,050-65,100 (short-term) / 65,700-66,000 (strong) / 67,000-67,500
Trading Ideas (Short-term slightly bullish, mainly buy on dips, short on resistance as secondary)
· Long (preferred): Stabilize on dip at 63,600-63,800 → Stop loss 63,000, target 65,000→65,700; conservative traders wait for strong support zone at 62,500-63,000
· Short (defensive): First pressure touch at 65,000-65,100 → Stop loss 65,700, target 64,000→63,500; conservative traders short after stagnation at 65,700-66,000
· Breakout tracking: Volume surge and steady above 65,100, light position long, stop loss 64,200, target 65,700-66,000; effective break below 63,600, short on rebound, target 62,500-62,000
Core Logic
① ETF funds sharply reversed: After 5 consecutive days of net outflow totaling about 385.8 million USD, yesterday Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of 297.56 million USD. BlackRock IBIT net inflow 160.23 million USD, Fidelity FBTC net inflow 111.9 million USD leading. Institutional funds re-entered below 64,000 USD, forming bottom support.
② Technicals slightly bullish short-term: 4-hour price stands above multiple short-term EMAs, EMAs in bullish alignment, Bollinger Bands slightly opening upward. BTC has maintained an upward channel since the 62,714 low. However, daily EMA60/EMA90 still downward, indicating a large-scale consolidation phase after a major drop; no effective breakout means no confirmed one-sided bull market.
③ Box range consolidation intact: BTC has been sideways between 62,500-66,000 USD for nearly five weeks, volatility extremely compressed. Bollinger Bands continue to contract, signaling daily timeframe is about to choose direction. Break above 65,700 opens upside space; break below 63,600 ends rebound structure.
④ Macro catalysts concentrated: Tonight the Fed July meeting minutes release (Beijing time Thursday 2 AM), market will seek clues on rate cuts and inflation expectations. Meanwhile, White House crypto industry meeting also held today. News may be key trigger to break current deadlock.
⚠️ Personal review record, not investment advice. Imminent convergence end and turning point, volatility may be intense around Fed minutes, strictly stop loss, light positions, wait for direction confirmation. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ Entry: Phased trading in the 64,500–65,000 range. Stop: above 65,500. Target: 63,500–62,800. Last night, derivatives short squeezes pushed the price to 65,000. The 56 million short position was instantly liquidated, but when the price reached 65,000, it quickly fell back to around 64,700. The selling pressure above was extremely heavy. This kind of rebound driven by short squeezing is the biggest trap for those chasing long positions. It looks fierce but lacks sustainability. Although the ETF had a single-day net inflow of 297 million yuan, ending a three-day outflow, the cumulative outflow over the previous five days was 386 million yuan, and a one-day rebound does not indicate a trend. Resistance remains unbroken, rebounds remain unchanged. $BTC #SEC提出 draft of the "Regulation of Crypto Assets." #花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容
Global banking giant Citibank plans to launch institutional Bitcoin custody services, marking a key step in Wall Street's crypto strategy by resolving compliance bottlenecks for large asset managers and corporate funds entering BTC. For a long time, the biggest obstacle for institutions allocating Bitcoin has been compliant custody channels, as most asset management risk controls do not allow assets to be entrusted to native crypto custodians. Citibank, with its bank-level regulatory qualifications, can integrate BTC into traditional asset unified clearing and reporting systems, significantly reducing friction costs for institutional allocation. $BTC
On the business side, Citibank's custody platform will include Bitcoin alongside stocks and cash within the same operating system, so institutions do not need to build entirely new crypto processes. Keys will be managed with bank-grade security standards, addressing core concerns like private key loss or theft. Initially, only BTC will be supported, with plans to expand to multiple digital assets later.
From a macro perspective, this is a landmark signal of traditional finance fully embracing BTC. Spot ETFs open indirect holding channels, while bank custody enables compliant native BTC ownership, broadening institutional capital entry points and providing a long-term expectation of stable incremental funding for Bitcoin. Short-term price impact is limited, with no immediate large buy orders, but it continuously strengthens the narrative of crypto asset compliance, boosting market bullish sentiment. Potential risks should not be overlooked: regulatory details remain inconsistent across regions, and the pace of business rollout is uncertain; centralized bank custody may exacerbate asset centralization, conflicting with Bitcoin's decentralized nature. Overall, Citibank's custody launch will expand institutional capital access and is a medium- to long-term positive for raising BTC's valuation baseline. VanEck发了一组数据：他们追踪的12项投降指标中，8项已经触发。比特币从6月到现在一直在58,000到66,500之间横盘，当前价格比历史高点低了约48%。 说8项触发了，它本身不能预判价格是否已经触底，但它在描述一种状态：投降正在发生，并且正在走向尾声。 当前价格区间的意义 比特币从6月到现在已经横盘了两个多月，价格在58,000到66,500区间窄幅波动。经历过高点回落，当前估值处于相对低位，但尚未出现突破迹象。 VanEck给出的周期参照是：过去三次熊市从峰值到最大回撤平均耗时12.7个月，当前是第11个月。我认同这个时间框架：底部结构的形成需要足够的时间，而目前距离历史均值还有一段距离。 ETF资金流入的信号 周一ETF净流入近3亿美元，这是5月5日以来最强的单日表现。 在价格横盘的背景下出现大额流入，意味着有资金在通过ETF渠道持续买入。这种行为在降息周期中具有一定的支撑作用。 我对“9至11月吸筹阶段”的看法 VanEck预计市场可能在9至11月进入吸筹阶段。这个判断是基于历史周期的平均时长，和当前市场状态的交叉验证。 形态相似不等于走势复制。即使投降阶段即将结束，底部禾赛科技$HSAI 这份 Q2 财报的主线很清楚：激光雷达主业仍在放量，机器人业务出货增速更快，SGI 也终于开始形成收入。但收入和出货的增长，并没有同步转化为更强的经营利润，市场后面要看的不只是“卖了多少台”，还包括产品结构变化后毛利率能否稳住。 先看核心数据 2026 年 Q2，禾赛营收 8.61 亿元，同比增长 21.9%；其中产品收入 8.60 亿元，同比增长 22.9%。净利润为 7060 万元，同比增长 60.0%；Non-GAAP 净利润为 1.01 亿元，同比增长 38.3%。公司已连续第五个季度实现 GAAP 盈利，主业规模化交付仍是业绩底盘。 出货增长仍是最强信号 本季总激光雷达出货量达到 62.83 万台，同比增长 78.4%。其中，ADAS 激光雷达出货 48.59 万台，同比增长 60.1%；机器人激光雷达出货 14.24 万台，同比增长 193.4%。机器人业务基数较低，但增速已经明显快于车载业务，说明禾赛的增长来源正在从单一智能驾驶，逐步延伸到更广的机器人感知场景。 利润质量不能只看净利润 营收和出货表现不错，但利润表中更值得正视的是经营端压力。Q2 毛利$BTC consolidated sideways for two days over the weekend, and today's sharp rally is obvious to any keen observer: it's either a reversal or a move aimed at triggering stop losses of those tens of millions of shorts. After precisely liquidating the short positions, the market immediately lost momentum, and the bulls who chased in became the new batch standing guard.
On the liquidity front, there was no real follow-through: ETFs overall still saw net outflows last week, and tokenized assets on the US stock side continue to divert funds from the spot market. Without fresh capital inflows, relying solely on a chain of liquidations in the futures market, this kind of rally is like building a sandcastle—looks tall but collapses with a single push. Above 64k, layers upon layers are trapped positions; trying to break through with this volume is harder than climbing to the sky.
My view remains unchanged: continue to be bearish. This kind of low-volume bull trap has always been more trap than treat. A rebound to a high level is not a buying opportunity but a better defensive position for the shorts.
⚠️ The above is just an interesting market recap and does not constitute investment advice. August 19th $BTC 64k–64.8k USD range oscillation
Structure: Still stuck in the 62,000–65,000 range (more precisely 62,800–65,000), 64,000 is the recently reclaimed bull-bear dividing line, 64,500–65,000 is the option Call accumulation + 50-day EMA resistance zone
Volume: 24h trading volume up 20% QoQ but absolute level still low, on-chain spot volume at multi-year lows, rebound is not driven by incremental funds but more by short covering + macro expectation shift
Sentiment: RSI 4H about 63, daily about 51, neutral to slightly bullish; futures OI relatively high, funding rate slightly positive, spike washout risk greater than smooth one-sided rise
US July retail weaker than expected → September rate hike probability dropped from ~55% to ~31%, dollar weakens, short-term rate expectations loosen, "bad data = good news" trading returns
Shorts crushed: On 8/18 pushed from 62,900 to 64,500+, 24h total network liquidations 96.6% from shorts, triggering technical short covering. $BTC $SNDK #Anthropic信贷拟超百亿美元 #花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容 #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案 $BTC 8.19$BTC making a double bottom (game theory support rebound)
Rising then falling to enter short-term repair, price running below the moving average, moving average pressing downwards, representing a pullback after a rise. Retesting support is a good opportunity to enter at a low double bottom, do not chase highs, wait for the pullback to stabilize before entering.
Entry: Retest around 63900
Stop loss: Break below 63500 key support to exit effectively
First target: 64690 → 64900 exit in batches
Second target: 65300
#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案 Market Flash｜Day 3
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
#SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓
1. Content Analysis
1. SanDisk
SanDisk fell back to around 1500 today, compared to the recent high of 1820, showing a significant pullback. As mentioned before, the stock plunged sharply to 980 due to divorce asset division news, at which point institutional and quantitative funds entered to bottom-fish, driving a rally over half a month to challenge the 1800 range.
It was previously noted that the rally driven by positive news would not continue indefinitely; a pullback was only a matter of time. Not sure if followers agree with this market logic.
2. SPCX
Rocket’s bullish momentum remains strong recently, currently consolidating sideways in the 139-149 range. On August 20, about 7% of original shares will be unlocked. Based on past capital operation patterns, it is highly likely there will be a pullback washout a few days in advance, followed by a price rally after the unlock.
Recent fluctuation range: high 149, low 139. You can try small position long-short trades based on the range’s highs and lows.
⚠️ Risk Warning: The above is only a summary of public market information and does not constitute any investment advice. 大盘层面，早间整体维持窄幅震荡格局，BTC在64400附近反复测试200周均线支撑，多空博弈加剧，市场观望情绪浓厚，多数资金静候白宫加密闭门会议的消息落地。BTC‑ETF前一交易日重回大额净流入，但盘前资金流入节奏明显放缓，增量资金进场节奏暂时中断，场内依旧以存量博弈为主。 主流币种分化运行，ETH走势弱于BTC，在1880‑1920美元区间震荡，ETH‑ETF资金小幅流出，机构做多意愿偏弱；OKB走出独立逆势行情，平台币避险抱团特征凸显；SOL、XRP、BNB等其余主流币种几乎没有独立行情，被动跟随大盘小幅波动，成交活跃度偏低。 热点山寨板块热度依旧集中在xSNDK，虽然近期持续回调，但依旧霸占热搜首位，高位多空厮杀不停；游资轮动加快，DOS、PUMP这类小盘币种短线脉冲拉升，属于存量资金短暂炒作，行情持续性无法保证，前期热度退潮标的BEAT、$APR持续遭到资金撤离。 合约端整体持仓小幅回落，杠杆资金不愿主动押注单边行情，全网清算盘集中在关键压力与支撑位置，短期盘面扫荡杠杆的概率偏高。整体来看当前市场缺少统一主线，资金四处试探，在重大消息落地之前很难走出持续性单边行情。#贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 RWA is reshaping the flow of funds in the crypto space at a pace far beyond expectations. Tokenized stock holders doubled from 670,000 to 1.31 million in one month, with monthly transfer volume soaring from less than 10 billion to 23.1 billion, a 179% increase. The total market value reached $2.8 billion, and the RWA share expanded from 5% to 15%. This is not a test; it is a large-scale migration.
Wall Street has laid its cards on the table: BlackRock's CEO stated that tokenization is the next big trend, with JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley entering the market. Ondo Stocks launched less than a year ago, with TVL surpassing $1.01 billion and cumulative trading volume reaching 27 billion.
But one detail is overlooked: the total value of RWA in DeFi protocols is $3.98 billion, a sixfold increase in one year; the total issuance of tokenized assets is 34.55 billion, but only 1.15 billion is actually used on-chain. Most assets are still idle.
Where is the money coming from? From the crypto space. BTC hovered around 63,000 for over a month, gold hit new highs, U.S. stocks are rising, while crypto is sideways. The same batch of funds exited Bitcoin ETFs and moved into gold ETFs and tokenized stocks. Money follows trends, not stories.
The fundamentals of BTC and ETH haven't changed, but funds are being reallocated. The door to buying U.S. stocks on-chain is open; the SEC is still hesitating, but Wall Street and millions of people have already entered the market. $BTC bounced from 62,600 to 65,000 this round, looking like it’s stabilizing, but I told my brothers: don’t get ahead of yourself, this is still a rebound, not a reversal.
ETF finally saw inflows but they’re weak. On Monday, the spot BTC ETF ended the previous week’s net outflow of over $385 million and turned to net inflows, but on Tuesday the flow went straight to zero, indicating institutions are just tentatively replenishing, not continuously bottom-fishing with real money.
Technically, it’s being crushed by long-term moving averages. The daily RSI at 51.95 just passed the midpoint, price is above the 20/50-day moving averages (63,800/63,900), but the 100-day at 66,416 and 200-day at 69,079 are both in downtrends, with a dense liquidation zone around 64,700, forming a wall of selling pressure above.
Tonight’s FOMC minutes are the real variable. The market prices in no rate hike in September, but officials are divided: hawkish minutes and a stronger dollar would push BTC to retest the 62,200 liquidation pool; dovish minutes could push it up to 66K. Right now, macro liquidity completely overshadows on-chain fundamentals.
Trading plan: don’t chase near 64,600; reduce positions before the 64,700 liquidation wall; if it retests the 62,600-62,800 support zone with volume and holds, you can lightly buy in with a stop loss at 62,000; if it breaks 62,000, look for 60,000. De-leverage before the minutes tonight, don’t bet on direction.Unlisted AI giants' revenue falling short of expectations triggered a one-sided correction in semiconductors, widening the Nasdaq's 1.32% decline compared to the Dow's 0.22% drop, indicating the market is squeezing pure expectation valuations. Whether crypto risk assets can become desensitized is the core contradiction.
From the market performance perspective, funds are withdrawing from upstream hardware, with AMD down 4.30%, Broadcom down 3.20%, and Nvidia down 2.36%, directly dragging down tech-heavy indexes. SanDisk weakening alongside implies the premium logic for memory chips is being suppressed, but the broader US stock market has not experienced indiscriminate selling.
The priority order of asset-driven factors has shifted to: downstream revenue realization ability outweighing upstream chip valuation premiums, which in turn outweighs the macro liquidity environment. When risk appetite for tech stocks is impaired, if the US dollar index and interest rate expectations remain stable, the liquidity linkage between safe-haven assets and crypto assets will diverge.
On the upside scenario, if the crypto market shows strong resilience during the US tech stock adjustment period and BTC exhibits strong desensitization characteristics, funds will regard crypto assets as an independent risk hedge pool. To trigger this scenario, observe no outflow of crypto funds after the US semiconductor sector stops falling; the scenario fails if BTC follows the decline and breaks key downside levels.
On the downside scenario, if the US tech stock valuation cuts trigger cross-market deleveraging, high-beta crypto assets will face secondary liquidity withdrawal. As AMD and Nvidia's declines deepen, dragging the Nasdaq further down, weak US market risk sentiment will transmit through the liquidity chain to the crypto sector.
The current failure condition for cross-market transmission logic is: the Dow and broad market indexes' catch-up declines turn into comprehensive contraction, or the AI hardware sector quickly recovers losses and rebuilds bullish consensus. During this period, marginal changes in the US dollar and interest rates will re-dominate the rebalancing of yield differentials among assets.
The key variables to watch over the next 7 days are the US semiconductor sector's stop-fall signals, BTC's correlation slope during US market open hours, and the allocation preference of safe-haven funds across cross-market assets.
#花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值暴跌多少？ 暴跌10% 130附近 不是看空SpaceX 上一波108入，已经在148止盈 8/20前后FOMC纪要和第二档解锁 SPCX 8月收盘价与累计可转让上限 为什么看回调？ 上次拉爆空头 第二次解锁还会？ 8/3盘中低104.83，8/17盘中高149.80。十来个交易日，最大涨幅接近43%。8/12摸到149.60，8/17又摸到149.80，两次都没站上150。 8/6解锁日成交2.55亿股，8/17成交1.10亿。解锁日本来就容易放量，不能只靠这组对比判断见顶；但放在两次没过150旁边看，我选择不追。 我把150当眼前压力。135是IPO发行价，也是8/10重新站回的位置；130对应8/10低点130.17。收盘跌破125我就走，低接的前提失效。 SPCX 8月日线，8/3–8/17 消息面也赶在一起 美东8/19公布7月FOMC会议纪要，北京时间已经是8/20凌晨。那次会议以9比3维持3.50%–3.75%的利率区间，三位委员主张加息25个基点。纪要如果比声明更偏鹰，高估值成长股通常先承压，SPCX也可能受影响。 7月CPI同比3.4%，比6月低0.1个百分点；环比Starting February 2022
February 4th is the Labor Data release day, data released at 21:30, BTC experienced a rapid rise
On February 10th at 21:30, the CPI was released, and from the 4th until 20:00 on the 10th, the price kept rising.
From the 10th onwards, there were no 5-star data points to record or observe for the rest of February.
Review summary: The market was in a bear market state, on the 4th the data triggered a rally, continuous rise, and the rally ended at a high point when the CPI data was released.
If you want to go long, choose the low points. Timing the lows is an art.
In a bear market, CPI released at a high point, regardless of being positive or negative, often represents the end of a phase of the market. The correct strategy is to clear long positions before the release and short on rallies.
Around 11 AM on February 24th, the Russia-Ukraine war suddenly broke out.
From the start of the war on the 24th, the market kept rising until March 2nd (6 days) (very similar to February 28, 2026, when the US-Iran war broke out, the negative news led to a market decline lasting until March 5th)
Review summary: The market was in a bear market state, the war broke out suddenly, and on the 24th the market was at a low point (it had already retraced about 23% from the previous high to the outbreak moment), this could be the start of a reversal and going long. The direction is the starting point of a bull trend (when predicting the overall trend). A Bitcoin mining company quietly hoarded nearly 5% of the Ethereum supply. $ETH $BTC
Bitmine (BMNR, associated with Tom Lee) just disclosed holding 5.82M ETH, valued at about $11B, accounting for nearly 4.8% of the total ETH supply, having added 9,926 ETH this round. Tom Lee (Fundstrat) is calling tokenization and Agentic AI the forces breaking ETH/BTC's years-long downtrend, also saying ETH might outperform BTC.
But the market hasn't caught up in 24h: ETH currently at $1,917 (+0.2%), ETH/BTC = 0.02963 (-0.07%), almost unchanged.
My observation: The big players' call for a breakout is backed by real money hoarding (nearly 5% supply is not just talk), but the 24h market shows no reaction yet; either funds haven't entered or the timing isn't right. Don't rush to chase at this position; first watch if ETH/BTC can volume-wise reclaim above 0.03.
Risks: Tom Lee's "$5,000" is a personal view, not a guarantee; if 5.82M ETH is truly sold, it would significantly impact liquidity; ETH/BTC's years-long downtrend won't reverse with just one bullish candle.
Can this "hoarding faction" break ETH/BTC's years-long downtrend this round, or is it just another round of talk ahead of funds? $ETH Distinguish between internal capital rotation and genuine external inflow to avoid the biggest market illusion
Everyone is eagerly awaiting incremental capital to enter the market and trigger a major rally, but the vast majority of traders cannot tell what is true incremental capital and what is merely internal capital reshuffling within the market.
Pseudo-incremental capital refers to internal rotation of existing funds within the crypto circle. Selling $BTC to buy $ETH, or selling ETH to switch to BTC. The capital never actually comes from outside the circle; it’s just money already in the market moving between positions.
This kind of capital flow only creates strength and weakness rotations among coins. One coin may surge sharply while another weakens simultaneously. It can spark localized short-term rallies but is insufficient to drive a market-wide bull run.
True external incremental capital comes from outside capital that has never participated in the crypto market before—real money entering for the first time. It’s neither old players switching positions nor contract market longs and shorts gambling.
The market characteristics of true incremental capital arrival are clear: BTC and ETH strengthen simultaneously, newly created active addresses on-chain continuously rise, and the overall market capitalization expands rather than just shifting between coins.
In reality, the vast majority of price increases are due to existing capital competition. Existing capital can create profit opportunities and bring swing trading chances, but don’t mistake internal rotation for a signal that a major bull market has begun.
When waiting for a rally, more than chasing bullish candlesticks, it’s crucial to discern whether the capital entering is old money within the circle or new capital coming from outside. Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped nearly 5%, closing at 11,992. Chip stocks were broadly hit, and the Nasdaq also fell 1.33%.
Two factors hit simultaneously:
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged, reaching a nearly 19-year high.
Rising long-term bond yields mean the market is repricing financing costs.
For capital-intensive industries like semiconductors, higher interest rates increase valuation pressure.
On the other hand, the US and Iran are deadlocked in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices up. Rising oil prices → inflation expectations heat up → rate cut expectations are suppressed → growth stocks continue to be under pressure. Both factors tighten simultaneously, with semiconductors taking the brunt.
————
A 5% drop in one day is not uncommon; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is naturally volatile. But the underlying logic is worth noting: this is not a company earnings shock, but a change in the macro environment.
Interest rates and geopolitics are both applying pressure. If long-term bond yields continue to rise, the valuation baseline for semiconductors may need further adjustment.
In the short term, watch if sentiment release is sufficient; in the medium term, watch interest rate trends and geopolitical developments. Don’t rush to bottom-fish, nor panic.
This is my personal observation; data should be based on official disclosures.Anthropic's annual revenue fell short of expectations, and all three major US stock indices dropped. But the Dow only fell 0.22%, the Nasdaq 1.32%; can this really be called a crash? The main declines were in AI chips: Nvidia down 2.36%, AMD 4.30%, Broadcom 3.20%. Other sectors in the market barely moved.
More subtly, Anthropic isn't even publicly listed. A private company's revenue miss dragging down the entire semiconductor sector sentiment shows how much of this AI round's pricing is based on expectations versus actual revenue. When revenue growth was fast before, no one questioned it; now that it's slightly lower, everyone is pulling back.
SanDisk is also falling; yesterday I said chasing highs only to give back half, and today the memory price hike trend is also retreating. This means the only AI sub-sector with some recent heat is cooling off.
I actually want to see if BTC will catch on. If US stock AI continues to cool down while crypto pretends nothing is wrong, that would be true desensitization. But it won't last long.What does this have to do with us? Three layers.
First layer, the money is being drained. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, three companies with a combined valuation of over 3.6 trillion, are all competing for public market funds. Crypto, as a high-volatility asset, will find it hard to get big money before the AI IPO frenzy ends.
Second layer, the narrative follows. If Anthropic really goes public at a 2 trillion valuation, the ceiling for the entire AI sector will be pushed up. AI projects in the crypto space with real business backing will see their valuation logic pulled higher accordingly. But conversely, if valuation overextension causes the market to start doubting AI’s profitability, the risk will spread to the entire tech sector, and the crypto market won’t escape.
Third layer, computing power itself is being repriced. With 6.5 billion in annualized revenue and a 2 trillion valuation, Wall Street’s pricing of computing power has far surpassed any traditional industry. When computing power becomes an asset that can be priced, financed, and securitized, Bitcoin, as the most original expression of computing power, will see its long-term ceiling only raised, never lowered.
Here’s my view. In the short term, the AI giants going public en masse squeezes liquidity in the crypto market, which is unavoidable. But looking longer term, when global capital starts allocating computing power as a core asset, Bitcoin, as the original benchmark of the computing power economy, will see its valuation ceiling systematically lifted.
The more AI burns money, the more expensive computing power becomes, the less Bitcoin loses.
$BTC $SNDK #Anthropic年化营收达650亿美元 The 200-week moving average is Bitcoin's most cyclical long-term indicator. Historically, it has formed major cycle bottoms near it multiple times, but touching it does not mean an immediate reversal. The final trend depends on three core variables: the weekly closing position, the strength of capital support, and macro news resonance. The current 200-week moving average is around $64,500, with the current price repeatedly rubbing near the moving average. The following scenarios can be divided into three scenarios: Scenario One: Quickly stabilizing the moving average, with the weekly moving average closing above (a bullish path). If the weekly price rises above 64,500 with increased volume and the weekly closing holds steadily, it means this dip is just a pin test for support. Long-term whales and fixed investment funds will accelerate their entry, with a short-term rebound challenging the resistance range of 67,000-68,000; However, to break out of a new wave of trend, BTC-ETFs need to return to continuous net inflows, combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts to provide incremental capital drivers. Relying solely on existing funds on the market is unlikely to trigger a major rebound immediately. Scenario 2: Prolonged repeated oscillating grinding at the moving average level (neutral path, current highest probability) The price is oscillating back and forth between 63,000 and 65,000, with ongoing bullish and bearish tug-of-war. A long upper and lower shadow lines close on the weekly K-line, unable to choose a direction for a long time. In this state, the market enters a prolonged bottoming cycle, with leveraged funds constantly being liquidated. Short-term market fluctuations dominate, mostly in swing movements, making it difficult to break out of one-sided trends. Funds will continue to wait for key signals such as the White House crypto meeting and Federal Reserve policy before making decisions. Emotion$BTC Many people are now focused on $65,000.
But I’m more concerned about $66,400.
Why?
Because $65,000 has already been repeatedly tested by BTC; what can truly change the range structure is a complete breakthrough of the key resistance above.
If BTC breaks through $66,400 with strong volume, then the consolidation structure of the past few months may see a significant change.
At that point, discussing "whether it’s a breakout" no longer makes much sense.
The market will tell you itself.
Conversely, if BTC gets pushed down again in the $65,000-$66,400 range, then this rally is most likely just a rebound within the range.
So don’t try to guess the top or the bottom right now.
Mark the key levels.
$63,000 — the bulls’ defensive line.
$65,000 — short-term resistance.
$66,400 — the real breakout point.
BTC has reached the doorstep of choosing a direction.
Next, it’s about who breaks first.Interest Rate Storm Hits: From Stocks to Bitcoin, All Assets Need Repricing
📈 First, look at the data
The US 30-year Treasury yield broke through 5.30% last night, hitting the highest level in 19 years.
This number is not just a cold indicator—it is the "anchor" for global asset pricing. When it fluctuates, stocks, exchange rates, and loan interest rates all move accordingly.
🔥 Why did it suddenly rise so high? Three factors combined:
1. Geopolitical tensions heating up
Trump threatens military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of the world's oil passes.
Oil prices surged to $91/barrel in three days, inflation can't be contained, so interest rates can't come down.
2. Corporate bond issuance spree
AI companies are frantically issuing bonds to build data centers, at 12 times the average annual level of the past decade.
Too many bonds and not enough buyers have forced yields sharply higher.
3. "No takers" for US debt
The total US national debt has exceeded $40 trillion, with experts predicting it could reach $50 trillion by 2029.
Who will buy it? No answer. The market is responding with sell-offs.
📉 Market reaction:
· US chip sector stocks plunged 5.5% in a single day, Nasdaq dropped 355 points.
· A-shares slightly rose instead, Shanghai Composite missed 4000 by 6 points.
· Bitcoin is bottoming around $64,000, ETH below $1900.
ETF funds continue to flow in, institutions are buying at lows, but retail confidence is insufficient, so prices can't rise.
⏳ What to watch next?
The Fed meeting minutes will be released tonight; if they signal rate cuts, BTC may trigger a rebound.
🧠 Core judgment:
This is not a short-term fluctuation but a global repricing.
In a high interest rate environment, overvalued tech stocks, growth stocks, and crypto assets will continue to face pressure.
The storm has arrived, and the logic of asset allocation is being rewritten.
$BTC $ETH $CL
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高