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In the last week of August, AI trading faces a real test
The market is moving from the first phase of storytelling to the second phase of realization. With high U.S. Treasury yields and financing costs, investors are no longer satisfied with the AI concept alone but are starting to calculate investment returns (ROI) precisely
🪁 Three core focuses this week
▶️ Nvidia earnings report
Not only must it exceed expectations, but also watch the progress of Blackwell shipments, the sustainability of cloud providers' CapEx, and gross margins. Strong guidance will boost the sector, while a lack of new catalysts may lead to valuation compression
▶️ July PCE inflation
If the data cools down, it will ease valuation pressure on growth stocks; if it rises, it will intensify concerns about high interest rates
▶️ Jackson Hole meeting
Focus on Fed rate cut signals and macroeconomic trends
🪁 Future trends and differentiation
Valuation expansion driven by capital before will shift to performance-driven growth. The AI theme will not disappear but will see increased differentiation
▶️ Favor: foundational infrastructure with orders, cash flow, and barriers; leading chipmakers, optical modules, power supplies, and cooling
▶️ Avoid: pure concept and small-cap AI stocks lacking performance support
💡 The key is not to bet on Nvidia's short-term price movements but to confirm whether the AI capital expenditure cycle is continuing to accelerate or entering a verification phase. If earnings and inflation align, the market will see a new round of recovery. Otherwise, short-term adjustments will continue
DYOR #BTC surges then consolidates, ETF funds continue to flow in
$BTC This wave of Bitcoin's rise is not driven by a large number of new buyers actively purchasing coins; the core reason is that a large amount of leveraged short positions had accumulated previously. After the price broke through a key level, it triggered a chain of forced liquidations, creating passive buy orders that pushed the price up faster and faster.
Previously, there was a long period of range-bound consolidation with a consensus bearish market sentiment, many people opening shorts, funding rates persistently negative, and short positions very crowded.
A small-scale breakout of key resistance first blew out a batch of the closest high-leverage short positions. Closing short positions = market buying BTC, which itself is buying pressure.
This buying pressure continued to push the price higher; the next batch of short positions reached forced liquidation prices, continuing to close positions and buy → forming a positive feedback loop of rising and exploding prices.
Once the dense short positions are fully liquidated, the upward momentum naturally diminishes.
Secondary and tertiary driving factors (why this particular timing for the rally)
Macro liquidity catalyst (ignition)
US long-term bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, US tech stocks strengthened, and risk appetite rebounded. Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, benefits from a favorable liquidity environment, providing an excuse for the breakout.
Regulatory/expectation sentiment support
US crypto regulatory expectations marginally improved, market pessimism about policies was repaired, and some funds were willing to replenish risk exposure. Fundamental Research Report $BLAST / Blast (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
Getting straight to the point: Blast ($BLAST) overall score 56/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, token value transmission still needs observation.
Fundamental breakdown: Blast (token $BLAST), L2/sidechain sector. Focuses on Pacman L2 native yield. Benchmarked against ARB, OP. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas spikes, TPS limits, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents occur. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $6.2K, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, Blast $3.00B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. FDV, Blast $4.20B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Annual revenue, Blast $6.2K, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, Blast undisclosed, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Numbers based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 483481.1x, FDV divided by revenue 676873.5x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 56/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus on these metrics: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitThe overall trend of ETC is relatively flat. As a long-established PoW asset, it has the foundation of hash power and miner ecosystem, but its competitiveness in applications, developers, and new narratives is limited. When ETH strengthens, ETC sometimes gains sentiment linkage, but their fundamentals and capital logic are not completely aligned. Without new catalysts such as mining, network upgrades, or ecosystem cooperation, ETC is likely to mainly follow the broader market. The key for the short term is whether trading volume can continue to recover. $ETC$SOL is not lacking narrative now, just a good price!
Solana launches governance vote to double the proposed deflation rate.
Points to watch: The plan is to increase the inflation decline rate from 15% to 30%, expecting to reach a terminal inflation of about 1.5% in approximately 3 years instead of the originally planned 6 years; in the next 6 years, it is expected to reduce issuance by about 18.9 million SOL, which translates to roughly $1.5 billion less supply under the current model.
My view: This is a long-term positive for SOL valuation, but in the short term, don’t treat “deflation” as a pump button. The key cost is reduced staking rewards, pressure on profits for some small validators, and there are already institutions publicly opposing this proposal.
In terms of strategy, you can accumulate SOL in batches when it pulls back to key support; if the vote passes and there is a volume breakout, add more; if the news is priced in and the price falls, wait for a second opportunity.As of 16:00 on August 24$ZEC 1. Positions and Long/Short Distribution Total open interest: about 138,800 ZEC (equivalent to a nominal value of about 117 million USDT), currently at a recent historical high. Long position ratio: about 21.88% (based on a long-short ratio of 0.28, the number of long accounts is very small, but the average single position amount is very large, indicating strong concentration of long positions among large players/institutions). Short position ratio: about 78.12% (short accounts hold an absolute advantage, with retail investors flocking to short). II. Chip Distribution and Range Proportion (Three Major Ranges) Based on recent (07/25 - 08/24) active buy and sell volume and candlestick price concentration model calculations, chips are mainly distributed in the following three ranges: 1. Low Bottom Zone (460 - 550 USDT): Accounts for 25% (early main force and some long-term bull positions lie in wait). 2. Rallies and turnover Zone (550 - 750 USDT): Accounts for 35% (Market acceleration period, intense bull-bear battles and retail investor entry zone). 3. High-Level Distribution and Lock-up Area (750 - 889 USDT): Accounts for 40% (Core area with recent surge in open interest, with massive chips accumulating here). 3. Analysis of Retail Investor Behavior Dynamics Main chip range for retail investors: 775 - 850 USDT. Maximum retail investor entry range: 800 - 835 USDT (on 08/23 - BTC· Possibility of entering a high boundary after ETH's surge and a brief volatility zone Why is the gap between the surface trend and the actual position risk widening the widest? While acknowledging the upward trend of BTC and ETH, the original poster judges that the rapid rise actually increases the likelihood of a rapid correction. The core concern is a scenario where the price plunges in reverse during a large candle, that is, a volatility spike linked to short liquidations. This perspective is not a simple directional prediction but stems from differences in capital behavior. What happened? The author believes BTC could face a pullback to around $68,000 and ETH to around $2,000, but he emphasizes that this is likely a process for a rebound after a general rebound rather than a trend end. He plans to enter a short position with a set stop loss and a fixed loss limit of $2,460 to test the scenario. Also, since the cumulative profits from existing long positions are sufficient, even if a stop-loss occurs, it is not a loss from the perspective of overall profits.📊【8.24 Bitcoin】58k is the sharply increasing probability bottom for this round——Action
Brothers, I've been playing jungle and researching quantification for the past two weeks, debugging tirelessly, which caused me to miss writing one weekly and monthly report. Unexpectedly, the main base camp suddenly caught fire, to the point that I have to re-examine the original plan.
Based on the currently known data, the time left for Bitcoin is running out. The left-side thinking needs to shift to right-side thinking. It's time to revise the original expectation and activate Plan B. When hit, stand at attention; when significantly deviating from the original expectation, review, analyze, and summarize.
The main factors behind last week's surge:
1. Treasury Secretary Bassett's expansion of US debt repurchase (liquidity improvement)
2. Trump's statement that the US is considering purchasing a "substantial" amount of Bitcoin (potential massive buy order expectation)
3. Epic massive short squeeze creating a short-covering rally (key reversal of bearish momentum at the end)
4. The interest rate hike expectation for the year dropped sharply to almost none (improved macro environment)
Now, my personal view on this surge (DYOR) 👇:
From the divergence of CVD and OI, this rapid rise from 65k to 79k was mainly driven by spot market leading to shorts being passively forced to close continuously. This contrasts with the end of 2022 when CME's massive futures dominated a violent pump to quickly escape the cost zone. This means this wave is a solid spot long-term capital buy-in, not short-term leveraged funds, making it more likely to stay in the market, thereby further increasing the probability that 58k is the bottom for this round [Tang Seng Trader's Notes] $BABA 115! The HKD 80 billion placement bad news is fully priced in, and the big short-sellers cursing are actually the safest!
When the big shorts stomp and curse, it is often the loudest bell signaling the bottom.
The news is mixed. On the negative side, Alibaba announced a placement of 710 million shares at HKD 112.70 each, raising HKD 80 billion entirely for AI infrastructure construction. This is the largest follow-on offering in Hong Kong stock market history. Michael Burry has sold all his Alibaba shares and switched to JD.com, saying "I won’t consider it unless the stock price halves."
But looking closely, the placement price of HKD 112.70 is only an 8.37% discount to last Friday’s closing price, with actual share dilution under 4%. More importantly, this placement was oversubscribed nearly 3 times, exceeding HKD 200 billion, with sovereign and long-term funds subscribing over 40% — sovereign funds are aggressively buying while retail investors panic sell. Who is right?
Personal view: Burry has been bearish on Alibaba for a long time, and his selling often serves as a contrarian indicator. The HKD 80 billion AI investment is a long-term positive; the short-term dip created is a golden buying opportunity. The stock price has already fallen below the placement price of HKD 112.70, so the cost basis of bottom-fishing institutions is higher than the current price.
Strategy: For conservative investors, buy in batches after a steady pullback to 113-114; for aggressive investors, buy at the current price; increase positions if volume breaks through 116.
With sovereign funds competing for 40% of the shares, do you think it’s a pie or a trap? Keep an eye on Tang Seng! #阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ The $TRUMP team just transferred 3.837 million coins to OKX yesterday, worth about $9.33 million.
At dawn today, they sold 1.1 million coins through one-sided liquidity, exchanging for 2.94 million USDC at an average price of $2.68.
In the past 24 hours, team-related wallets have transferred at least 6.45 million TRUMP to OKX, with a total value exceeding $15 million.
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap The load-bearing wall emits cracking sounds at night. On August 21, the international gold price rebounded sharply like a steel beam bent under pressure for too long—breaking through the $4,600 per ounce mark, with a weekly gain of nearly 5%. Meanwhile, the yield on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds remained stubbornly high, like cracks on the surface of a load-bearing wall covered with mortar, while the structural engineer has already heard the internal steel reinforcements groaning.
In our industry, there is a strict rule: the load path must be clear and traceable. No matter how fancy the design sketch is, if you cannot calculate a complete load transfer path to the foundation, it must be sent back for revision. The current situation in the bond market is like the foundation being buried in a softened fill layer caused by debt monetization. Dalio sees this clearly—he advises investors to reduce bond allocations, increase gold holdings to 10-15%, and hold some Bitcoin as a hedge. Translated into structural terms: the old load-bearing wall is fatigued, and the new blueprint must rearrange the support system.
What is gold? Gold is like a large raft foundation slab—high density, stable self-weight, and controllable settlement. It does not pursue fancy facades or intricate joints; its sole purpose is to provide a place for the sixty floors above to stand. But its load-bearing capacity limit is clearly stated in the survey report; you cannot expect it to simultaneously support the entire financial system’s safety redundancy. The bond market, priced by sovereign credit, has its "load design value" repeatedly bent by fiscal deficits and monetary credit overdrafts. The old practice of blindly marking "safe" can no longer pass the review of the design approval center.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is like a new composite material—lightweight, high strength, good ductility, and construction techniques still to be tested over time. It is not the concrete column in traditional blueprints, but in seismic zones and areas of geological mutation, it can provide deformation space that traditional structures cannot. Some criticize its rough joints and short construction history, but once the overall structure enters the elastoplastic stage, you will find ductility more life-saving than stiffness.
What we are witnessing now is essentially a structural transformation. The cracks in U.S. dollar credit are extending, fiscal pressure is causing the "risk-free rate" concrete protective layer to peel off in patches, and Dalio’s warning of "debt monetization" is just a bold red annotation in the structural review report: this component has exceeded its design service life. The simultaneous rise of gold and Bitcoin indicates that capital is orderly withdrawing from the old load-bearing system, seeking new benchmark calibration. Can bonds still maintain their safe-haven role? It depends on whether they can pass the "safe floor" level reinspection. But in the structural survey diary in my hands, the upper right corner of that blueprint has already been stamped "not approved" by the review agency.
The building will not collapse overnight, nor will the cracks heal themselves. The construction team has already relaid lines at the edge of the foundation pit—materials once labeled "non-sovereign assets" are now solidifying into a new foundation within the concrete. And in the annotation column of the old load-bearing wall, only one clear small note remains: strictly prohibited from further loading. #gold4600vsbondsLast week, Uniswap trading activity burned over $2.4 million worth of UNI, setting a new weekly record.
At the same time, the value of UNI burned exceeded $1 million for four consecutive weeks for the first time in history.
The single-week burn value of over $2.4 million corresponds to 640,000 UNI, which is the second highest level historically from a coin-denominated perspective.
The Meme + RWA craze sparked by Robinhood Chain has to some extent stimulated Base & Coinbase.
For Uniswap, this can be considered a windfall; Base and Robinhood Chain are the second and third largest chains for UNI burn after Ethereum.Still thinking about a rebound? First, protect your own wallet!
$TRUMP is currently priced around $2.4, down 4.1% in 24H, but there was a clear concentrated sell-off early this morning. In the past two days, it surged sharply from around $1.4 to over $3, with short-term funds taking heavy profits; more importantly, after the unlock on 8/18, historical data shows that in recent unlocks, the price dropped about 6.1% on average within 10 days. The next unlock on 9/18 will release 28.69 million tokens, about 2.9% of the total supply.Money can find a way back, but people can't find a reason to come back! U.S. Treasury buybacks drove BTC up 20% in just a few days, with ETFs seeing a net weekly inflow of $2.61 billion, and capital returning in large numbers. However, on-chain monthly active addresses fell 18% year-on-year, and the number of open-source developers fell from a peak of 45,000 to 28,000. The money is coming back, but the real industry players are disappearing. The current crypto community has undergone four profound migrations; understanding these four shifts reveals the true nature of the current market. First migration: From self-owned wallets to custodial exposure. Last bull market entry: downloaded Little Fox, transcribed 12-digit mnemonic phrases, believing "if it's not your private key, it's not your coin." Entering this bull market: Open the brokerage and directly buy IBIT. Never generated a private key in my life, didn't know gas fees, and never signed a single on-chain transaction. The total size of U.S. spot crypto ETFs is $110.3 billion, with 80% of the funds coming from ordinary retail accounts, not Wall Street institutions. These holders will leave no on-chain traces, participate in governance, and do not use DApps. As a result, the market has seen its most contradictory phenomenon: the number of passive holders rises, while on-chain active addresses fall in tandem. The number of crypto asset holders has completely decoupled from the actual on-chain activity. They treat BTC as a small part of their portfolio, disregarding decentralization and only looking at asset returns. Second migration: From frenzied leveraged speculation to limited risk exposure. On October 10, 2025, the largest leverage liquidation in crypto history will be at 190 in a single day$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
Current market status of btc: After a rebound wave, it is consolidating at a high level, surging close to 80,000 USD before facing resistance and pulling back. Now it is fluctuating back and forth in the 76,000-78,000 USD range, which is a shakeout phase after the positive news has been realized. The previous surge was mainly due to: Trump's crypto-friendly expectations + US Treasury repo expectations + shorts being forced to cover positions.
However, the positive factors remain but with uncertainties
• ETF has had continuous capital inflows recently; institutions are indeed buying;
• The market is betting on the Senate passing crypto legislation in September, but the bill may not pass, and if it falls short of expectations, a sharp drop is likely;
• The US Treasury repo will officially launch on September 9, currently it is just speculative hype.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $BTC Mid-term Trend (1-3 months, September-November, mainly focusing on the Federal Reserve + regulatory bills)
Bullish Supporting Factors
1. Macro liquidity expectations easing
The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes were dovish, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping to 30%-35%, and the market pricing in rate cuts by the end of the year; the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, suppressing U.S. Treasury yields and lowering the holding cost of yield-free assets like BTC. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to the highest level since the pandemic, strengthening the logic of anti-devaluation allocation.
2. Improved expectations for U.S. regulatory policies
Trump met with crypto industry executives, publicly promoting the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," and the SEC plans to establish a crypto asset compliance safe harbor. Market expectations for industry regulation are heating up, boosting institutional allocation willingness.
3. Extremely solid chip structure (the biggest confidence for the mid-term)
Long-term holders control 83% of circulating BTC, the highest proportion since December 2023; profit-taking chips in the $60,000-$70,000 range account for only 19%, and high-level trapped chips have significantly decreased, greatly reducing the possibility of a deep crash. Selling pressure is much weaker than during the 2025 bear market phase.
Mid-term Core Risks (suppressing the height of the rally)
1. Repeated rebounds in inflation data: If PCE and CPI exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, leading to a collective valuation downgrade of risk assets;
2. Congressional vote on crypto bills falls short of expectations: During the September-October bill voting window, if harsh regulatory clauses are added, market sentiment will be quickly suppressed;
3. Excessive market leverage: After this rally, futures open interest has surged. Once negative news emerges, it could trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations and a pullback. $BTC Current BTC price is about $77,650, with a weekly increase of 22.6%, marking the largest weekly gain in nearly 3 years. This round is driven by a triple resonance of macro liquidity, policy expectations, and short squeeze. The trend is analyzed in short-term, mid-term, and long-term perspectives:
1. Short-term trend (1-4 weeks, mainly consolidation and digestion)
1. Technical range
• Core consolidation range: $75,400 (strong support) ~ $79,500 (first resistance)
• Breakout condition: Stabilize above $79,500, with an upper target of $84,100;
• Breakdown risk: Fall below $75,000 support, short-term pullback to $72,800 to seek support.
2. Core market logic
1. The rise has exhausted a large amount of short momentum: This rally was driven by nearly $3 billion in short liquidations. After the short squeeze ends, there is a lack of leveraged buying to follow up, entering a short-term consolidation phase for profit-taking.
2. Capital structure divergence: Spot ETFs continue net inflows (accumulated $1.6 billion in a single week) providing bottom support, but futures leverage funding rates are rising, and short-term speculative traders are eager to take profits.
3. Key observation point: On September 9, the US Treasury repo plan officially launches. If long-term bond yields rebound again, BTC will face pressure simultaneously; if yields continue downward, consolidation may be followed by further upward movement.
Two short-term scenarios
• Optimistic: Sideways consolidation in the $75,500-$79,000 range with ETF inflows supporting, aiming to challenge $84,000 by month-end;
• Cautious: Inflation data rebounds and hawkish Fed officials' remarks trigger a short-term pullback to $72,000-$73,000. For those who are still heavily invested in BTC now, I can only say: you probably haven't understood the E/B exchange rate yet.
Why am I not holding BTC now?
Because in the next 2–3 years, ETH is very likely to continue outperforming BTC.
The annual E/B exchange rate is already very clear: after years of continuous decline, the drop has significantly narrowed this year, approaching a doji pattern, even brewing a reversal.
This means that even if ETH can't significantly outperform BTC temporarily, the space for ETH to continue underperforming significantly in the future is already very limited.
Since the two are highly correlated, why not choose ETH with a higher payoff?
Now let's look at BTC itself.
At the beginning of August, it was still around 62,000, then quickly surged to 80,000 in a short time. This kind of rise doesn't seem solid to me.
It's like losing five pounds in two days by taking laxatives—it's water loss, not fat.
So I still believe that 58,000 is not the real bottom of this cycle.
I don't even expect BTC to enter a true bull market throughout 2027.
The reason is simple: next year may still be a bear market environment for risk assets.
The annual structure of the US stock market is also becoming clearer. I judged in Q2 that the US stock market could maintain high-level volatility in Q3, weaken starting Q4, and enter a larger-scale decline in 2027.
If the US stock market enters a systemic adjustment, BTC and ETH will find it hard to be completely independent.
The real hope for BTC to re-enter a major upward cycle, I still see it in the 2028 halving cycle.
So BTC at over 70,000 USD now still seems very fragile to me.
It looks solid but is actually just a layer of paper The valuation narrative supporting $SNDK's extreme one-sided rally has long collapsed amid multiple rounds of chip turnover and rapid market sentiment withdrawal. Since it reached its historical valuation peak, the token's price has cumulatively retraced well beyond the extreme critical threshold of 99%, and throughout this continuous downtrend, it has been persistently pressured by primary distribution selling.
Currently, in the same sector ecosystem, $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR—previously highly correlated with its capital flow—have all, under the support of sustained incremental new funds, successively achieved effective breakthroughs from long-term bottom consolidation ranges, launching completely counter-market independent rebounds. $SNDK's downward momentum shows no sign of marginal slowdown, and there has never been sufficient spot buying volume in the crypto market to absorb the overwhelming selling pressure. $SNDK #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX Watched $AAOI all night, the pre-market atmosphere feels a bit strange. The underlying stock is being hammered by a $600 million secondary offering while some are calling for a pre-market surge, but the token price is sluggish and unmoved.
📰 News: Overnight, the underlying stock was hit 10% due to the $600 million secondary offering. In pre-market, surging news appeared in the opposite direction. Bullish and bearish news are clashing, and the token price does not follow the stock sentiment all day, indicating that capital is still wary of dilution.
🔧 Technicals: On the 4-hour chart, RSI14=48.5 is neutral with no clear direction. MACD shows a golden cross but the expanding red bars suggest some divergence. Price has fallen below MA7/MA25, with the 7/25 moving averages in a bearish alignment. During rebounds, the short moving average clearly suppresses the price.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens are down -0.41% pre-market. The broader market offers no positive feedback. US pre-market liquidity is thin, and secondary offerings tend to amplify bearish sentiment. The external environment is unfriendly to bulls.
🎯 Today's view: I am bearish today. Dilution from the secondary offering is a real pressure. Technically, the short moving averages are bearish and have not been reclaimed. The pre-market market is weak. The token lacks conditions to strengthen independently. The bulls lack convincing power at this level.
📊 Token 110.07 (-0.78%) | US stock pre-market
#USStocks
#OpticalModules
#SemiconductorSector From August 19 to 20, the stock price of stablecoin issuer Circle rose by approximately 16.7%. During the same period, Bitcoin broke through $70,000, U.S. Treasury yields declined, and crypto concept stocks generally strengthened. News such as the White House meeting with crypto industry executives and the increase in USDC market share further boosted market sentiment.
This rebound largely stems from sector-wide momentum. Circle's own fundamentals remain mixed: in Q2, USDC circulation and on-chain transaction volume continued to grow, but revenue growth has slowed, with over 85% of revenue still coming from interest generated by reserve assets. As interest rates decline, whether USDC's scale expansion can offset the drop in reserve yields becomes a key factor affecting short-term profitability.
A longer-term variable is the Arc blockchain and Circle Payments Network (CPN). The Arc public mainnet is scheduled to launch on September 16, with institutions such as BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, and DTCC participating in validation or related business integration. Circle hopes to leverage this to expand revenue from transactions, settlements, and software services, reducing reliance on reserve interest.
The $259 valuation given in this article corresponds to a neutral scenario in 2030, significantly higher than the Wall Street average target price of about $101. The former already factors in the successful commercialization of Arc and CPN, while the latter mainly relies on reserve income, interest rate environment, and recent performance over the next 12 months. Which valuation Circle ultimately achieves depends on whether the Arc launch brings real assets, trading activity, and sustained revenue. Circle's stock price rose 9.56% on August 19, closing at $78.59; it rose another 6.45% the next day, closing at $83.66, for a two-day cumulative increase of about 16.7%. On August 21, Circle continued to rise 5.16%, closing at $87.98.
The continuous rise shows a clear improvement in market sentiment. However, this article believes that the market moves in the first two trading days were mainly driven by Bitcoin's rise, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and the strengthening of crypto concept stocks, with no significant fundamental changes in Circle itself sufficient to explain this increase. Looking at Bitcoin's bear market from the early plunge in gold
Now looking at Bitcoin's reversal from the big rise in gold
US long-term Treasury repurchase supports gold and Bitcoin; the similarity between the two is that they are increasingly approaching an inverse relationship with the US dollar.
Gold continued to rise after breaking through the 4600 mark, while Bitcoin maintained a sideways adjustment at the weekly high, after last week's strong rally.
It's basically very difficult for Bitcoin to plunge sharply in the short term unless there is a major negative news stimulus. As for the upward trend, it may test 80,000 again, but the momentum will definitely not be as strong as last week.
According to my prediction, after a second surge, it will face pressure and fall back. Whether this happens also depends on whether Trump will "cause trouble" in the process.#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？
Alibaba is issuing 710 million new shares this time, raising about HKD 80 billion, and clearly directing all funds towards AI infrastructure. I think this should not be simply understood as "positive for AI" or "negative due to dilution."
It’s more like Alibaba proactively bringing forward its AI investments for the next few years to today.
From the company’s perspective, this is easy to understand. AI cloud, computing power, and model training all require continuous heavy spending. It’s better to prepare the funds now than to scramble for financing when demand arises later.
But from the shareholders’ perspective, the logic is completely different.
Issuing new shares means existing shareholders get diluted, so what the market really needs to calculate is not "how many data centers can be built with HKD 80 billion," but rather:
Can this HKD 80 billion ultimately generate new profits exceeding the cost of dilution?
Looking at these AI capital-intensive companies now, I no longer just focus on revenue growth. Revenue growth is certainly important, but more crucial is whether we can see improvements in profit margins and free cash flow later on.
Anyone can say they want to build computing power, train models, and expand data centers, but the real difference is seen years later when looking back—some have turned capital expenditures into cash flow, while others have just burned through money.
So I am not opposed to Alibaba continuing to heavily invest in AI. To some extent, I even prefer to see it putting money in now.This week, there is a meeting that can decide whether Bitcoin rises or falls, whether U.S. stocks can rebound, and even affect A-shares. It's called Jackson Hole. Let's start with the background. Last week, a major event occurred in the U.S. bond market—the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.33%, the highest since 2007. The U.S. government borrowed long-term loans and had to pay the highest interest in nearly 20 years. The Treasury Department acted urgently, announcing it would spend more money on the market to buy back long-term bonds to prevent rates from surging further. The news came out, and rates plunged in a single day. But the next day, they rose again. The government's market rescue failed within 24 hours. So now the focus is on the Jackson Hole annual meeting opening this Thursday. This is the Federal Reserve's important annual meeting, and the focus is on whether officials will say there will be rate cuts within the year. If they do, U.S. stocks will stop falling, and Bitcoin has a chance to surge to 80,000. Not to mention, US Treasuries remain high, US stocks are under pressure, and Bitcoin may pull back below $70,000. Last week, Bitcoin rose from $62,000 to $77,000, up 24%. Mainly because Trump pushed for crypto legislation, institutions followed suit, buying nearly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin ETFs in one week—the highest for a single week this year. Ethereum also rose 30%, and a large number of short sellers were forcibly liquidated, which actually accelerated the rally. Now, both are waiting for signals at high levels. A-shares opened today. Last week, precious metals rose 4.6%, and telecom computing funds net bought over 6.5 billion. Three ministries jointly introduced consumption promotion policies, supporting small and mid-sized tech stocks. Focus on today's trading volume—whether it can hold onto 1.8 trillion yuan is key to judging whether the market can move. Pop Mart’s earnings shock is a masterclass in how quickly hype can turn into a hangover. The company that once seemed unstoppable has hit a wall, and the market is scrambling to reassess its valuation. 🎢 Despite brokerages already trimming forecasts, the first-half report still surprised to the downside. Revenue for H1 2026 came in at RMB 17.173 billion, up 23.8% year-on-year, with net profit of RMB 5.1 billion, up 9.5%. But the cracks are visible. Q1 revenue surged 75-80%, yet Q2 implied revenBefore the Federal Reserve Chair's Jackson Hole speech, $BTC maintained a high-level oscillation between $75,000 and $78,000. The core conflict lies in the tug-of-war between the asset repricing risk brought by the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the currency depreciation trading logic.
Last week, $BTC surged over 25%, and gold broke through $4,600, reflecting the market's concentrated pricing of debt exceeding 40 trillion and a currency depreciation trade amid inflation surpassing 2% for five consecutive years. However, the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, a new high since 2007, suppressing risk assets from further breakthroughs from a liquidity perspective.
The current dominant factors in the market are, in order: uncertainty in the macro policy reaction function, the suppression of risk appetite by U.S. Treasury yields, and marginal expectation adjustments brought by Wednesday's PCE inflation data. Whether the Federal Reserve reiterates its commitment to the 2% inflation target or comments on the 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range will determine the transmission strength of the latter two factors.
The trigger for the upside scenario is stable PCE data on Wednesday and no further rate hike signals from the Jackson Hole speech. Under this path, if the Polymarket shows a decline in the probability of rate hikes this year from 55%, and CME shows a drop in December rate hike probability from 45%, the slowdown in long-term Treasury sell-off momentum will relieve capital pressure on high-beta assets, driving prices to break through the $78,000 upper limit; the invalidation signal is the 30-year Treasury yield breaking above the 5.34% high.
The trigger for the downside scenario is the Fed clearly expressing a hawkish stance or inflation data exceeding expectations, leading to realized rate hike expectations. If the Fed emphasizes maintaining rates above 3.50%-3.75% or even preparing for another hike, further surges in Treasury yields will tighten macro liquidity, causing positions to shift from risk assets to risk-free income assets, forcing $BTC to break below the $75,000 support; the invalidation signal is the Fed clearly reiterating a rate cut policy path.
If the Jackson Hole meeting does not provide a clear policy reaction function, resulting in the no-guidance, evasive scenario Barclays expects, the market will maintain high volatility. In this case, the current $75,000-$78,000 range-bound judgment will fail due to the lack of directional capital inflows.
The most critical variables to watch in the next 7 days are the changes in Wednesday's PCE inflation data and the Federal Reserve Chair's specific comments on the 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注Today, I saw an interesting piece of monitoring data from BlockBeats: nearly 87% of mainstream contracts on the Hyperliquid platform are rising, with BTC, ETH, and many altcoins showing impressive gains. Meanwhile, top market makers like Wintermute, Cumberland, and Auros have on-chain addresses holding a total of $230 million in crypto short positions, with unrealized losses approaching $7 million. #BTC冲高后震荡, ETF funds continue to flow in. Many people's first reaction is: "Are big institutions bearish on the market?" Is it time to crash? " Don't panic, this is actually a typical case of market makers taking on a one-sided surge. [The Core Mechanism of Market Makers: Not Bearish, but Passive 'Taking Orders'] $BTC The essential task of market makers is not directional speculation, but to provide liquidity—that is, placing both buy and sell orders on the market to earn the bid-ask spread. What happened? When retail investors and rally chasing funds rush in to buy, the high-level sell orders placed by market makers are consecutively swallowed. Result: Market makers sell a large number of contracts, automatically generating a large number of short positions in their hands. Data also shows that Wintermute continues to maintain over 800 buy orders and over 800 sell orders in both directions, indicating they are still performing their market-making duties as usual. [Core Data Overview] $ETH Market Increase Rate: 86.8% (66 out of 76 contracts rose) — ResponseI understand that feeling 😭 Clearly it was "according to the script," but this time it just crushed you on the ground
First, a hug. This isn’t a technical issue, it’s *"using last round’s winning script to fight this round’s new boss"*
*1. Why didn’t $LIT drop as you expected?*
*The effective logic for $BEAT / $APR before:*
Small altcoin surges → RSI overbought → retail FOMO finishes → you short the weak → chips can’t hold and it cascades down
This is called *"trend + weak short"*, very effective in bear/sideways markets
*This time $LIT might be different:*
1. *Different background*: Now the market is rotating with ETF + AI + BTC. Risk appetite is different. $80K BTC will bring a bunch of alts flying together
2. *Different chip structure*: The main players this time might not be the same as last round. Some are buying at highs, new narratives
3. *You brought in a "strong bias"*: You’re right. "Subconsciously relied on previous wins"
The brain automatically thinks: "It’s gone up so much = it must fall." But the market doesn’t owe us any pullbacks
*2. The three most painful words: "I thought"*
"I thought it was overbought"
"I thought resistance was coming"
"I thought it would be like BEAT"
When we use "what worked in the past" to predict "the current structure," it’s easy to get slapped in the face repeatedly.$NVDA
NVIDIA, in particular, seems increasingly focused on reducing customers' upfront AI computing capital pressure through GPU securitization and project financing, attempting to convert massive AI chip or AI computing cluster orders into long-term computing assets that can be financed and leased. However, this also binds NVIDIA more deeply to customer utilization rates, AI application monetization, and debt repayment ability; if AI inference revenue growth cannot cover the high computing costs, ecosystem financing commitments and GPU residual value may become new risk transmission channels.
A $5 trillion market cap is far from NVIDIA's endpoint? High growth and high expectations face a direct collision
NVIDIA's current market cap is about $5.25 trillion, significantly higher than Apple, which ranks second at about $4.5 trillion. However, some analysts bullish on NVIDIA's stock price outlook believe the gap between the two will rapidly widen, and it all starts with NVIDIA's Q2 earnings release on August 26 Eastern Time this week.
Since the beginning of this year, NVIDIA's expectations before earnings releases have not been that high. For 2024 and 2025, before the Q2 earnings release, NVIDIA's expected P/E ratio was about 35x. For most of this year, it was only about 24x, a relatively cost-effective expected P/E ratio. The "story" of $BTC Bitcoin is changing—it is increasingly dominated by macro liquidity rather than simply the "digital gold" narrative. Short-term rebounds rely on sentiment and leverage, while sustainability depends on whether the macro environment can truly shift from "suppressive" to "friendly." If Treasury repo can continuously release liquidity, revisiting $100,000 by year-end is not impossible; but if macro conditions fluctuate, low-level oscillation and bottoming remain the main theme. #Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Waller Clarify the Policy Path?
The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting will be held from August 27 to 29.
The market's biggest dilemma right now lies here: on one side, economic growth and employment pressures; on the other, inflation and persistently high long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Recently, the 30-year Treasury yield has risen to levels near the highest since 2007, and market concerns about recurring inflation have clearly intensified.
Therefore, Waller's speech this time is very critical. If he signals dovishness and clearly hints at room for rate cuts in September, risk assets will likely be boosted first, while the dollar and Treasury yields may come under pressure. $BTC, $ETH, and U.S. tech stocks could all see a wave of sentiment recovery.
But if he remains vague, unwilling to provide a clear path for rate cuts, or even emphasizes that inflation remains the main risk, the market may reprice "high rates staying longer." The market has already priced in some probability of a rate hike in September, indicating that funds are not fully betting on easing.
My view is that what deserves more attention at Jackson Hole is not whether rates will be cut, but whether Waller will change the market's expectations for the policy path in the coming months. What the market lacks most now is certainty. If the speech remains ambiguous, it could lead to continued high volatility in Treasuries, the dollar, and risk assets. The same applies to the crypto space; in the short term, don't just focus on the words "rate cut." What really matters is whether funding costs have started to decline and whether the market has regained confidence that an easing cycle will return. After Jackson Hole, this answer will become clear The $TRUMP team appears to be selling TRUMP through strategic liquidity additions and removals.
Over the past 10 hours alone, they have received $3.39M in $USDC from $TRUMP sales.
Serious selling pressure to watch.$ETH short-term overbought signals are more severe than Bitcoin's, making chasing the highs extremely risky; however, the mid-to-long-term capital structure is undergoing a qualitative change—ETF funds and institutional allocations may be building up greater explosive potential for it than Bitcoin. In the short term, watch closely whether the $2440-$2510 resistance can be broken; in the mid-to-long term, focus on whether Wall Street's tokenization process continues. It remains a high-risk, high-beta choice, but the "story" is becoming different.$SNDK model restructuring, valuation bottom confirmed
What truly reverses market expectations is Investor Day—SanDisk is trying to prove it is no longer a "weather-dependent" cyclical stock. The core weapon is the "new business model": it has signed 4-year long-term contracts with 8 customers, locking in at least $93.9 billion in minimum revenue through fiscal year 2028, covering two-thirds of shipments in 2028, and explicitly setting floor prices. Even if prices plunge 72%, the long-term contracts can guarantee profits won’t collapse, overturning the old model of huge losses whenever demand falls.
Valuation and risks: expectation gap remains, beware of cyclical backlash
Even though the stock price has risen several times, its forward P/E is only about 7x, far below the semiconductor industry average of 27x. Major banks like Citi and Goldman Sachs still give a "buy" rating. But this is not without risks.
1. Cyclical patterns are hard to break: long-term contracts can smooth fluctuations but cannot completely eliminate cycles.
2. Moat controversy: compared to Samsung and SK Hynix with HBM technology moats, SanDisk’s product barriers are relatively easier to catch up with.
3. Whether shareholder returns can be fulfilled: the company promises 100% excess cash return to shareholders, which supports valuation but depends on execution strength. *LATEST: Phantom officially announces dropping Sui* 😬
Only integrated for 20 months before pulling out, this speed is faster than the bull and bear cycles.
*Core Announcement*
**Item** **Details**
**Time** Complete shutdown within 2026. Phantom hasn't given a specific date yet, keep an eye on follow-up announcements
**Reason** **$SUI TVL has dropped about 82% since the peak in October 2025**. On-chain activity has significantly weakened
**User Actions** 1. Transfer assets to other wallets like **Slush** 2. Or use **Phantom's free Swap** during the transition period to exchange
**Fees** Phantom will cover swap fees during the transition period
*Why drop it? Here's the translation*
Phantom is the top wallet in the Solana ecosystem. The decision is very pragmatic:
1. *TVL collapsed*: October 2025 was Sui's highlight, then dropped 82%. No TVL = no users = no revenue
2. *No activity*: Integrating Sui consumed engineering resources, but DAU/transaction volume didn't pick up
3. *Focus*: In 2026, AI+BTC+ETH+Solana are the main lines. The Sui ecosystem story can't be sustained, so cut losses first
*Impact on $SUI and users*
1. *Short-term negative*: Phantom is one of the largest entry points. Shutdown = one less CEX-level traffic entry,#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
Trump's "Economic D-Day" escalates the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from a "military operation" to a "systemic financial strangulation." The $93 oil price already reflects the risk that "the blockade will continue," but it has not yet factored in the risk that "secondary sanctions might also drag China into the fray."
On August 19, Trump announced a "devastating economic action" against Iran, calling it "Economic D-Day," demanding the cutting off of all Iranian financial channels, oil smuggling, ship registrations, and other routes. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin followed up, calling it "the toughest sanctions in history."
Oil prices surged in response—Brent touched $94.71, hitting a nearly one-month high. WTI surged to $87-88. The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed. Research institutions estimate that if the strait remains closed for a quarter, WTI could rise to about $94, pushing U.S. Q4 inflation up by approximately 0.6 percentage points year-over-year. U.S. gasoline prices have already risen about 29% compared to a year ago. HSBC has raised its 2026 Brent average price forecast to $95, warning that even if an agreement is reached, the supply shock's impact on global inflation will be difficult to reverse.
On August 24, Brent fell back to $93.22. The market is waiting for Mnuchin's press conference that afternoon. The real suspense lies in the "secondary sanctions"—if the measures involve punishing key buyers like China, $93 is just the starting point. If it's just "more of the same," the market has already cast a vote of no confidence in advance. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Folks, this Friday is the real highlight—the Fed Chair Wash's debut at Jackson Hole. Some even think this is more worrisome than Nvidia's earnings report.
Why is the market so nervous?
Since Wash took office, he completely scrapped "forward guidance." After the July meeting, he said nothing clear, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to soar to 5.34%, the highest since 2007. Now with US debt exceeding 40 trillion and inflation above 2% for five consecutive years, the silence is turning into an expensive noise.
What exactly is the market waiting for?
Wall Street isn't looking for hawkish or dovish statements but a clear "policy reaction function"—what data will trigger rate hikes, how to view the 3.50%-3.75% rate range, and whether to stick to the 2% inflation target. Barclays expects Wash is unlikely to provide near-term guidance. If he still dodges the issue this time, long-term Treasury sell-offs may intensify.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Last week BTC rose over 25%, gold broke 4600, reflecting a "currency depreciation trade." Rate cut expectations favor risk assets, while hikes do the opposite. Currently, Polymarket shows a 55% chance of a rate hike this year, CME shows a 45% chance in December.
Before Friday, PCE data will be released on Wednesday. Until these two events conclude, Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between 75,000-78,000. Folks, the direction is good, but don't rush the pace; wait for Wash to clarify before making moves. $BTC *$TRUMP is selling again... The classic script is back* 😅
*Latest on-chain data*
**Data** **Details**
**11-hour sell-off** **3.39M USDC** taken by team wallets
**Transferred to OKX** **646,000 TRUMP** ≈ **$15.5M** just moved into the exchange
**Weekly increase** **+80%** from last week till now
**Pattern** Every time the price rebounds → the team sells off
Lookonchain is watching closely. 646K transferred to OKX basically means they're about to dump.
*What does this mean?*
1. *Typical "pump-and-dump" Memecoin play*
Price up 80% → FOMO buyers come in → team converts to USDC at the top. Matches previous reports of selling after rebounds
2. *$15.5M selling pressure*
646K dumped on the market, liquidity gets eaten up directly. Especially with the market waiting around $80K for news, it’s easy to be dragged down
3. *Why is it still rising?*
Because the "Trump + election + policy expectations" narrative remains. Retail investors are buying faith, not the token structure
*Trading perspective*
- *Short-term*: 80% weekly gain + continuous team selling = extremely high risk. Chasing the price means taking the team’s chips
- *Key level*: Watch if the OKX sell orders get absorbed. If it breaks the previous low, it could accelerate BTC weekly is up about +23%, rising from 64,700 to around 79,400, currently digesting at 77,000 today. ETH weekly is up about +28%–30%, from 1910 to around 2545, now pulling back to around 2450.
The first half was driven by treasury repo and White House/SEC expectations, short sellers got squeezed. The second half is about ETFs: BTC saw inflows of about 1.92 billion last week, ETH about 697 million. The short squeeze sets the pace; institutions decide if it can hold.
Still policy-driven trading. Clarity voting is in September and remains uncertain. BTC first looks at 73,000, ETH first looks at 2300–2350. If volume and inflows don’t keep up, it’s just a retracement.
NFAWill the US military be the last trump card for US debt? Will gold surge as a result?
Geopolitical rhetoric mostly only triggers short-term pulse moves and rarely determines the medium- to long-term trend of gold. The core drivers of gold prices are US inflation, US debt expectations, real US dollar interest rates, and safe-haven capital allocation. Risks are gradually priced in by the market rather than a single piece of news directly causing a one-sided big move.
Looking back historically, the primary role of government bonds was war financing. During World War II, the US implemented yield curve control, but the Federal Reserve will not fully backstop all US debt. At the critical point of debt pressure, there is a possibility of sacrificing bondholders’ interests to preserve fiscal stability.
The transmission path of geopolitical conflicts: conflicts push up oil prices, raising inflation expectations, pressuring long-term US debt yields, with energy as a key intermediate variable.
Currently, the market’s two main concerns are: first, sticky inflation causing real returns to shrink; second, debt expansion combined with high inflation weakening the US dollar’s purchasing power, making gold the preferred hedge. The military is only responsible for geopolitical order and does not directly guarantee US debt principal and interest.
Three scenarios for the future:
▪ Base case: inflation slowly declines, debt risks ease, gold oscillates with a slow bull trend, unlikely to see a violent surge
▪ Bull case: Middle East conflict pushes oil prices higher, inflation expectations rebound, gold strengthens
▪ Bear case: inflation falls rapidly, debt concerns cool down, gold comes under pressure and declines
$BTC $ETH $XAU #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Alibaba's 80 billion placement, plunging 10% — this is not a pullback, but a hard switch in valuation logic. $BABA
Placement price at HKD 112.7, an 8.4% discount, intraday low hit 110.
Net profit plummeted 75%, all funds poured into AI infrastructure.
The market votes with its feet because Alibaba has transformed from a light-asset platform into a heavy-asset gambler — making old shareholders bear the military-grade costs together.
But on the other side, sovereign funds snapped up the quota within an hour. Institutions are betting on AI computing power paying back in 2.5 years and Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth of 45%.
No rush in the short term: the stock price will repeatedly test the bottom around 112, 110 is the panic test level, and 118-123 above is the resistance zone. The lock-up period is 90 days, so the stock price is unlikely to have a big move.
Is this a golden pit? It depends on whether AI revenue can catch up with capital expenditure speed. Wu Yongming's 2.5-year payback window is the test.
Operation advice: aggressive investors can lightly try long positions between 112-110, stop loss at 108; conservative investors wait for a volume breakout above 118 before following; those trapped should not add positions, wait for right-side signals.
Don't forget to hedge tail risk with Puts.
In summary: the pit created by panic selling could be gold or an abyss. Wait for the AI results before deciding.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $BTC $ETH $SOL *LATEST: Grayscale Released a Report* 📊
*Key Point: "Now is a favorable entry point for long-term investors"*
*3 Reasons Given by Grayscale*
1. *Adoption Trends*
Continuous ETF inflows + AI/software companies mentioning Bitcoin reserves in earnings season. Institutional adoption is still in early stages, not peaked yet.
2. *Cycle Stage*
83% of coins are held by long-term holders. Historically, after this data appears, the next 6-12 months are mid-bull market. Not yet at "extreme greed".
Current $77K-$79K still has room compared to last cycle peak.
3. *Macro Conditions*
US Treasury balance sheet expansion + peak interest rate expectations + weakening dollar. Both risk assets and inflation-hedge assets benefit.
Trump + Congress pushing the "Clarity Act," reducing regulatory uncertainty.
*In Plain Language*
Grayscale means: *"Don’t wait for $60K, you might not see it again"*
They believe now is not chasing highs, but a "mid-term accumulation zone."
Logic: Institutions have started buying $390M/day, retail hasn’t FOMO’d yet, and macro is turning dovish.
*But watch out for risks*
Grayscale sells ETFs, so they are naturally bullish. But two risks not mentioned in the report:#BTC consolidates after a rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH consolidates after reaching $2500 #BTC consolidates after a rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH touches the $2500 mark and enters consolidation
#SNDK's rebound and turnaround fantasy has been shattered by the market 🤦
Since hitting the all-time high of $2354, SNDK has embarked on a long one-way downward path, with a maximum drawdown close to 99%, nearly wiping out all previous gains.
Currently, the storage sector is experiencing rotational recovery, with BICO, BEAT, ALLO, KAITO, and APR successively attracting capital. These tokens have fully completed bottom chip exchanges, successfully breaking out of the bottom range, with a clear rebound trend.
Only SNDK is completely unable to keep up with the sector's warming momentum.
It has neither a deep washout with volume surge nor a long-term sideways consolidation with sufficient turnover; the bottom chips have never settled. It has been drifting down without resistance throughout, with scarce buy orders on the market and severely lacking capital support.
While the sector collectively recovers, only it continues to weaken.
Capital has long voted with its feet, providing the answer.
Even if the sector's market heats up again, if an individual token's fundamentals and chip structure can't keep up, it will still miss out on the entire rebound rally.
$BTC $ETH#IranOilRiskEscalates
Iran risk is becoming an inflation story again. Brent jumped 6.4% last week as new sanctions and shipping threats raised the odds of real supply disruption. If crude keeps climbing, the chain reaction matters: higher energy costs, stickier inflation, tougher Fed pricing and pressure on risk assets. Gold may like that setup. BTC is less predictable. The key question isn't whether oil rises, but whether it rises enough to change the rate outlook.Bitcoin touched 78,800 before pulling back, currently consolidating around 77,000.
It rose nearly 20% in three days, wiping out several months of sideways movement in one go. Liquidations once approached $3 billion, with shorts being swept away in a wave.
More noteworthy than the short squeeze is that ETF funds have truly started flowing in. Last week, the combined net inflow of US $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs was $2.6 billion, the strongest single-week inflow since October last year. BTC saw $1.9 billion, with consecutive days of net buying, indicating the market is shifting from "short covering" to "spot accumulation."
However, a rally driven by short squeezes comes fast and can retreat just as quickly. Whether it can hold depends mainly on whether ETFs continue buying and if spot holders can withstand taking profits. Without fresh money to sustain it, a surge of selling at the highs will cause significant volatility.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Everyone is guessing whether Waller will be hawkish, but I think Wednesday at 20:30 is even harder to predict.
At that moment, the GDP revision and July PCE will be released together. The previous GDP was 1.5%, and the annualized PCE rose 5.1%. One controls growth, the other controls inflation. If the data leans slightly to one side, US Treasuries and the dollar might get unsettled first.
BTC hasn’t broken above 79603.1 on the 4-hour chart yet, ETH is stuck below 2549.34, and the S&P daily chart just pulled back from a high. I don’t believe there’s an advantage in betting on the speech in advance. I’ll only acknowledge this wave can continue if BTC breaks above 79603.1 and ETH closes back above 2549.34 after the data release; if interest rate expectations ease but both coins can’t break through, I’ll consider that the expectations have already been fully priced in.
$BTC $ETH #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
For information organization and personal opinion only, not investment advice. Shorting dYdX, three reasons.
First, Arcus strategic shift substantially hollowing out DYDX token value
dYdX team launched a brand-new DEX called Arcus, deployed on Robinhood Chain instead of their own dYdX Chain. Arcus offers 95 tokenized stocks and perpetual contracts with 24/7 zero-fee trading. It is an independent product with independent infrastructure. dYdX Labs is telling a new story, but this new story does not place dYdX Chain and DYDX token at the core.
Founder Antonio Juliano promised that a portion of future Arcus tokens would be allocated to the dYdX community, but allocation details and unlock timing have not been disclosed. The market worries about resource diversion and value transfer issues. After Arcus's official announcement on July 2, DYDX plummeted 45%, giving back all gains from the previous five days before the announcement. This is not a technical correction; it is a narrative collapse.
Second, the Perp DEX sector is shrinking overall, with dYdX falling the fastest
The entire Perpetual DEX sector has shrunk by over 60% from its peak in October last year. In the past 30 days, trading volume dropped from 1.36 trillion to 498.2 billion, a 63.4% decline. Among leading platforms, dYdX's weekly average trading volume fell by 43.2%. GRVT dropped 59.1%, and Hyperliquid was halved. The whole sector is squeezing out excess.
Worse, although funds remain on bridges, turnover rate has decreased—from nearly two cycles per day before to less than 1.5 cycles now. A low volatility, low trading environment is a persistent negative for protocols like dYdX that rely on trading volume.
Third, market share crushed by Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid generated $1.34 trillion in trading volume and $320 million in revenue in the first half of 2026. In the past three months, derivatives trading market share is 31%, while dYdX only has 16.76%. dYdX's total on-chain TVL is about $480 million, Hyperliquid's is $2.1 billion. Both dYdX and GMX lag behind Hyperliquid in trading volume growth and product expansion pace.
dYdX's marginalization fundamentally stems from its liquidity responsibility mechanism. dYdX adheres to a DeFi design with no protocol backstop; in extreme market conditions, when market makers withdraw, liquidity depth disappears immediately. Hyperliquid is more centralized, with a treasury willing to assume liquidity responsibility, making it better suited for high-leverage perpetual contract markets. $BTC $TRUMP $ETH
Shorting is not betting on it going to zero, but betting it will continue to be marginalized under this competitive landscape. Set your stop loss properly; don't hold on.一、先说盘面：BTC一周拉了1万多点 过去一周，加密市场走了一波让很多人措手不及的行情。 BTC从64,000附近一路拉升至77,000上方，24小时内一度突破77,430美元，创5月27日以来价格新高。过去三个交易日累计涨幅超20%，24小时内超16万人爆仓，空单爆仓金额达11.49亿美元。以太坊同步跟涨超7%，加密市场总市值跃升近8%至约2.37万亿美元。
发生了什么？
几个因素叠加共振：美国财政部宣布扩大长天期国债回购规模至“不低于40亿美元”，压低长端收益率、削弱美元；加上特朗普会见加密行业领袖释放政策信号；市场此前积累了天量杠杆空单，价格一突破6.5万直接触发连环清算，正反馈机制把BTC推到了7.7万上方。
二、但周末出现了一个插曲 就在BTC冲到77,000上方之后，周末开始出现高位回落。 8月22日至23日，BTC下跌约2.4%至76,600附近，ETH跌超5%至2,383美元，艾达币、XRP等跌幅超12%，近18万人爆仓，多单爆仓7.53亿美元。 回调原因： 一是前期获利盘集中回吐；二是伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊22日表态——任何参与对伊朗实施经济限制的国家，Taking a quick look at the bid-ask spread, $XRP is around 1.47, with the spread more than doubling compared to usual. Such a sharp widening of the spread indicates that market makers are withdrawing orders, and market liquidity is drying up.
In an environment of liquidity depletion, even a small sell order can cause a significant drop, but likewise, a small buy order can trigger a strong rebound.
Holding a 100x leverage position in this unstable microstructure carries extremely high risk. I took profit on 80% directly, and moved the stop loss on the remaining 20% to 1.5149 to break even, with a trailing stop at 1.488. If you haven't entered yet, don't open positions when the spread widens—that's a liquidity trap. $BTC $ETH A sudden little insight: Market makers passively press short sellers; behind the lively rise hides a fragile market signal
In the current round of collective rally in crypto assets, a set of on-chain data deserves the attention of all traders: the top three market makers Wintermute, Cumberland, and Auros have passively accumulated a combined net short exposure of $220 million due to market buy orders, already incurring millions of dollars in unrealized losses. Many might mistakenly think this is due to institutions actively bearish and heavily betting on a decline, but the truth is quite the opposite—this is risk inventory forced out by liquidity providers due to a one-sided upward market.
The primary role of market makers is to place two-way orders, simultaneously posting buy and sell orders to earn the bid-ask spread. Ideally, they pursue delta neutrality, avoiding holding large one-sided long or short positions and not betting on direction. When market buy orders surge and many traders aggressively take sell orders, the sell orders posted by market makers get continuously filled, passively selling contracts, and the short positions accumulate higher and higher. Data shows that even with positions heavily skewed to the short side, Wintermute still maintains thousands of two-way orders, quoting both sides in 74 out of 77 contracts, which is a typical market-making business structure, not a subjective bearish short position.
The risk lies in the word "passive." Currently, Wintermute alone carries $163 million in short positions covering multiple major coins including $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. If the market continues to rise, unrealized losses will further expand. Market makers face only two options: first, buy contracts to close short positions, which would further push prices up and create a small short squeeze; second, maintain short positions and bear the loss pressure from continued price increases.
This also reflects the volatile nature of a monkey market: a rise does not necessarily mean a fundamental reversal. Part of the buying power transforms into risk burdens for liquidity providers. Once prices surge and market makers collectively close positions, it amplifies market volatility; conversely, if prices turn down, these short positions become a buffer for market buy orders.
For ordinary investors, do not simply interpret this as "big institutions betting on a decline," nor blindly bet on a short squeeze just because institutions hold short positions. This data reflects significant structural risks accumulated inside the derivatives market, which is currently in a high-volatility phase. The more intense the one-sided market, the more severe the inventory imbalance of market makers, and the more violent the volatility caused by subsequent reversals.
In such an environment, chasing highs with full positions is extremely risky. The market has the potential to continue surging, but internal risks are also accumulating, making repeated volatility the norm. Position control and not blindly trusting single-direction signals remain the most important trading principles today.