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From the latest Long-Term Holder Supply In Profit Share (LTH Supply In Profit Share), the profit status of long-term chips is rapidly recovering.
This may no longer be a typical bear market rebound but closer to the early stage of a new cycle, with V-shaped recovery characteristics strengthening.
What requires more caution is: if a market similar to 2019 emerges, how should individuals respond?先说结论，就三句话： 一，继续拿住。二，不在这个位置加仓。三，涨到关键位置要分批减仓。 金价今天创三个月新高。$PAXG 现价 4,664.8，日内 +1.32%，24 小时成交额 153 万 U——昨天这个时候只有 53 万，量几乎放大了三倍。$XAU 同步 +1.32%，成交额 1,545 万 U，是 PAXG 的十倍，深度依然是全平台黄金映射资产里最好的。 我昨天写的那篇里说"4,600 不追高，等 4,650 放量站稳再补"。它今天站上 4,650 了，还放量了。我没补。 原因不复杂："站稳"和"追高"之间，差着一个回踩。 没有回踩，就没有我要的位置。 今天的涨，逻辑没变 这轮上涨的发动机还是那台——贬值交易（debasement trade）。 美国债务规模今天有个新数字：突破 40 万亿美元。财政部还在扩大长端国债回购，美元承压，黄金作为"反法币"的定价逻辑继续被强化。上周黄金 ETF 净流入 28 吨，创 1 月以来单周新高，这是实打实的买盘，不是期货情绪。 所以"继续拿住"这半句，我一点都不犹豫。中期逻辑没有坏，仓位不到卖出的时候。 但短线有三件事，值得你警惕 1.SanDisk $SNDK has strong support at 1500; if it doesn't fall below, I'll do some trading, probably sideways until the US stock market opens before it drops further.
Currently, the mainstream trend is upward, but technology is clearly under pressure due to US-Canada trade frictions, high US Treasury yields, and geopolitical conflicts. US stocks are down in pre-market trading, including Korean and A-share storage sectors, which are not performing well. Clearly, this storage sector correction is still ongoing #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Bessent Put is gradually forcing out the Fed Put
Bessent wants to use nearly 1 trillion from the TGA to buy back long-term bonds, but this move only raises more suspicion.
The TGA is originally the core buffer prepared for the debt ceiling in the first quarter of next year. Using this money early to suppress yields is like robbing Peter to pay Paul—using ammunition meant for future negotiations to deal with current market pressure.
More importantly, this approach will slowly pull the Federal Reserve deeper into the situation. Since the TGA is held on the Fed’s balance sheet, once its scale is heavily used or needs to be rebuilt later, the market will naturally start to speculate whether the Fed will cooperate or ultimately be forced to intervene. The boundary between fiscal and monetary policy is thus gradually blurred.
What truly suppresses the long end has never been accounting maneuvers, but fiscal discipline itself. Using cash buffers to buy time often just postpones the problem, and makes it worse when it returns $SPCX weakened before the market opened, with the tech sector collectively under pressure, which is worth noting.
Reviewing recent patterns, this stock often experiences a pre-market surge followed by a post-market decline over the weekend phase. This time, the same rhythm was repeated, with the pre-market upward momentum completely absorbed during the trading session.
Not only SPCX, Nvidia also fell synchronously by 2%, and the US tech sector generally weakened. The significant surge in June made many participants optimistic, but now the market is beginning to show signs of pressure.
The ongoing weakness of the US dollar is not a favorable signal for the equity market. There is insufficient incremental capital in the market, and most funds remain cautious. If the downward trend is further confirmed, it could easily trigger a rapid sell-off, amplifying overall market volatility.
Semiconductor-related stocks, including SanDisk, have also been affected by this adjustment. Attention should continue to be paid to the news that Anthropic plans to submit IPO documents by the end of August. The scale of this fundraising is expected to be comparable to SpaceX and will have some impact on market liquidity.
#SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #BTC experiences volatility after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #Sandisk closes up over 8%, long-term agreements in focus Good evening everyone!
Bitcoin, Sandisk, and SK Hynix belong to two completely different asset categories. BTC is a cash-flow-free crypto asset, while Sandisk and SK Hynix are publicly listed companies in the storage sector. All three are influenced by US Treasury yields and global risk appetite, but their value anchors and cycle logics differ greatly.
$BTC Bitcoin BTC, as the benchmark of the crypto market, sees intermittent capital inflows from spot ETFs, with prices recovering and rebounding amid easing rate expectations. It has no revenue or profit; pricing relies entirely on external capital and consensus, with institutional and short-term speculative funds having divergent demands. Historical resistance from previous holders remains above; this rebound is mainly liquidity-driven rather than fundamental improvement. If inflation data exceeds expectations or rate cut expectations are delayed, the coin price will quickly come under pressure.
$SNDK Sandisk is an independently listed pure NAND flash manufacturer, focusing on consumer SSDs, memory cards, and enterprise flash. It lacks HBM high-end AI storage capacity and mainly benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics and enterprise storage demand. Currently, NAND prices are in a cyclical upturn phase, but industry competition is fierce, and product gross margins are significantly lower than those in the HBM sector. The company has real cash flow from financial reports but lacks the boost from high-growth AI business, making its elasticity weaker than Hynix. Its stock price mainly follows the NAND cycle and consumer electronics demand fluctuations.
$SKHYNIX SK Hynix holds both HBM high-end AI storage and regular DRAM/NAND businesses. HBM4 is accelerating ramp-up in the second half of the year, with many long-term contracts locking in future capacity. Q2 performance was impressive, but the market has started to price in supply pressure from capacity expansion, compounded by cloud providers' capital expenditure expectations causing disturbances. The stock price sharply corrected from highs, followed by a large-scale buyback to stabilize market sentiment. It simultaneously benefits from AI high-growth dividends and faces strong storage cycle risks. Performance is visible, but caution is needed regarding peers' yield improvements compressing product premiums.
In the risk asset rebound window, BTC tracks ETF funds and macro expectations; Sandisk focuses on NAND spot prices; Hynix closely watches HBM capacity release and competitive landscape. If US Treasury yields rise, all three asset types will face valuation pressure. #BTC fluctuated after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in. The 76000-78000 range has been oscillating for three days, and I'm torn about whether to short or not.
BTC has been sideways between 76000-78000 for almost three days. Neither up nor down, no drop, no rise.
The price hasn't moved, and people are going crazy.
Chasing longs? 80000 is a barrier that can't be passed. Opening shorts? What if ETFs suddenly buy aggressively again?
Honestly, I haven't felt good these days either. This round went from 64000 to 79000, up 15000 points, with almost no decent pullback before the sideways movement. Missing out is missing out; chasing hard risks getting trapped, shorting hard risks getting liquidated.
What's even more frustrating is—ETH has already broken 2500, Trump has tripled in three days.
But have you noticed? BTC actually stopped before 80000. ETH is catching up, Trump is soaring, while the leader BTC is sideways. What does this mean? It means short-term funds are being diverted, not working together to break through.
If BTC were really strong, it should have already broken through 80000 directly with liquidity. The reason it's sideways is because the sell orders above are indeed heavy, and bulls need to catch their breath.
I don't recommend opening positions with emotions in this kind of market.
If you're out of position, stay out; missing out doesn't lose money. The urge to short is because the recent one-sided rise was too strong, and short-term indicators are indeed overbought, but the odds for shorts aren't high.
The truly comfortable entry is to wait for it to choose a direction itself—either a volume breakout above 80000 or a pullback to 75000 to stabilize. Entering now is just gambling.
The market isn't short of opportunities; it's short of patience to wait for them $BTC 过去几天市场最大的变化不是BTC反弹，而是资金开始从BTC逐步向ETH，再向部分高Beta山寨扩散。ETF资金重新流入、白宫加密峰会后监管预期改善、美国财政部回购长债释放流动性预期，共同推动BTC从低位快速反弹。近期比特币ETF单周净流入接近19亿美元，创下去年10月以来最强表现之一。与此同时，ETH近一周涨幅明显跑赢BTC，市场开始出现典型的： BTC → ETH → 山寨 一、启动雷达：量价同步 + 关键位确认 $LIT（3.4–3.6区间）：24h涨幅与成交同步放大，属于典型启动型。
观察重点：能否在放量后守住近期启动低点附近并继续抬高。若价格回踩时成交明显萎缩，容易变成脉冲。 $PENGU（0.0094–0.0096）：24h涨幅约12–15%，成交同步放大。
关键阻力：0.0100心理关口（突破后下一目标约0.012附近）。
关键支撑：0.0081（200日均线附近）、0.0073。
量价配合下，守住0.0081上方结构更健康；跌破则短线热度可能快速消退。 $AAVE（135–140）：涨幅与成交同步提升。
关键阻力：需日线收稳149.4上方才更有延续空间。
关键支撑：10Fidelity Fund Doubles Gold Holdings to the Limit: When Top Managers Question Fed Credibility, the Safe-Haven Logic Completely Changes
George Efstathopoulos, portfolio manager at Fidelity International, doubled his gold holdings in the past three weeks, directly reaching the 5% position limit, and clearly stated that he would further increase it if the dollar's safe-haven status continues to decline. The trigger for this aggressive increase was the panic selling of long-term U.S. Treasuries by global investors after the July Fed meeting.
George bluntly said that the plunge in long-term U.S. Treasuries reflects a Fed credibility crisis. The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases seems more like manipulating the yield curve rather than solving the deficit problem. Now, the underlying logic of gold trading has completely changed: the market's focus is no longer on the rise in yields itself, but on why yields are rising. When rising long-term rates reflect sovereign credit default risk premiums, U.S. Treasuries lose their safe-haven attribute and instead become a source of risk from fiat currency credit dilution.
Traditional long-term capital like Fidelity buying gold to the limit shares the same underlying logic as crypto capital increasing Bitcoin allocations: both are accelerating the escape from a sovereign debt system with impaired credit and reconstructing the pricing power of non-sovereign hard assets.
Facing the out-of-control long-term U.S. Treasuries and Fed credibility crisis, how do you allocate your safe-haven positions? Between gold and Bitcoin, which do you think can better inherit this sovereign credit migration?
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 It turns out that the 10 addresses associated with bit collectively hold over $323 million in $ETH and $BTC long positions, with unrealized profits exceeding $41.95 million! 🤯
▶︎ ETH long positions: holding 65,977.9684 ETH ($165 million), unrealized profits over $15.08 million
▶︎ BTC long positions: holding 2000 BTC ($158 million), unrealized profits over $26.87 million
This does not even include the $9.897 million profit previously realized by address 0x6c8…d84f6
Who exactly is this powerful entity, financially strong and so early and firmly bullish… $BTC USD falls, ETF buys, shorts buried
1. US Treasury repurchase doubles, suppressing the USD, reigniting depreciation logic, gold rises accordingly.
2. ETF net inflow of 1.92 billion in a single week, BlackRock absorbs 500 million in one day, institutions directly pushing the market.
3. 4 billion short positions forcibly liquidated, a stampede-style short covering boosts a short squeeze rally.
USD falls, ETF buys, shorts explode, three forces jointly pushing the market. Understand the logic, next time there's a move you can profit too.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 When Wall Street begins to reassess the crowded trades in AI hardware, Micron $MU is the first target to be singled out for liquidation. The BofA July Fund Manager Survey shows that 82% of respondents believe semiconductors are the most crowded trade, with no short positions; Renaissance Technologies has already significantly reduced its Micron holdings in Q2. Smart money is retreating, and your short position happens to be on the opposite side of institutional portfolio adjustments — it's following the trend, not going against it.
Trading logic: Currently, MU has fallen from the opening price of 1,010.45 to 931.91, with bearish momentum still releasing (MACD green bars expanding). Operationally, 920-930 is the core support zone; if broken, you can lightly add to short positions, targeting 820-790; if the price rebounds near the 1,000 round number resistance, you can add to short positions with a stop loss at 1,040. However, with 50x leverage, the bottom line is to take profits on at least 60% of the position, and move the stop loss on the remaining position to 970 (below the opening price) to let profits run risk-free.
$ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 The crypto market breaks out independently, with Bitcoin and Ethereum leading a separate rally
On August 24, U.S. stock pre-market futures for the three major indices all fell, with Nasdaq futures down 0.73% and S&P 500 futures down 0.22%. However, the crypto market showed a completely different trend—Bitcoin $BTC surged above $77,000, rising about 23% over the past week and breaking out of the trading range suppressed below $67,000 for several months; Ethereum $ETH simultaneously broke above $2,500, with a weekly gain of 31.3%.
This is not a simple short-term divergence. Data shows that the 20-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has plummeted from about 0.43 last week to nearly zero, while its correlation with gold has climbed above 0.5. After the Fed announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, the dollar weakened, and gold and Bitcoin strengthened in tandem, signaling a return to the "currency depreciation trade" logic.
Bitcoin is transforming from a "risk asset" into an "independent asset class." While U.S. stocks are pressured by tech stock headwinds, the crypto market is carving out its own path thanks to its unique characteristics as a non-sovereign credit asset.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The DEX competition is getting much more interesting.
And $ASTER # is one of the projects I think deserves more attention.
Aster isn't simply trying to be another spot exchange.
Its bigger thesis is around onchain derivatives and competing for the traders who currently dominate centralized exchanges.
That's a difficult market to enter.
Hyperliquid has already shown how strong the demand for decentralized perpetual trading can become.
So the question isn't:
Can Aster become another DEX?Concentration is decreasing, and chips are starting to loosen!
As of August 24, the highest chip peak — the accumulation at $63,000 — has dropped from a peak of 1.22 million coins to 980,000 coins;
while the nearby $62,000 bar shows little change, indicating that the short-term price rally has little impact on the chips here.
As we deduced in the possible future scenarios on August 21 (see quote): once chips start to loosen, the price will either stabilize or even pull back.
A new chip concentration area will then form. Because the price staying put provides an opportunity for turnover.
Now it seems the $76,000-$77,000 range has the potential to become a new chip concentration area (Figure 1).
In just 3 days, 320,000 BTC were added in this range.
At the same time, when BTC broke through to $77,000-$78,000,
there was a strong wave of profit-taking, the largest scale in nearly 6 months (Figure 2).
But even so, the price did not drop significantly.
Clearly, there is capital absorbing the supply here.
Assuming a new chip peak can really form near $76,000-$77,000, do you remember the "double anchor structure" theory?
Long-term followers of mine should be familiar with it. Once this structure forms, the subsequent BTC pullback is very likely to fall in the middle of the structure.
That is roughly around $68,000-$70,000.
So the question is simple: now it depends on whether the $76,000-$77,000 range can form a meaningful chip concentration area.
Yes! This requires a bit of time. August 24–30 Global Macro Guidance: How the 'Macro + Geopolitical + Interest Rates + US Stock Quadruple' Will Guide Market Pricing! The yen remains a potential risk! This week, the pricing logic for macro and risk assets was influenced from four perspectives: macro data (July PCE) + geopolitical (US-Iran situation) + interest rates (Wash's speech) + US stocks (Nvidia earnings), forming a complete macro framework! Global Focus: Determining the Direction of Energy and Inflation Expectations—US-Iran Situation or Oil Price Fluctuations Is the US Economy Really Trading Stagflation? Or to mitigate economic risks—July PCE will be decisively decided Will the latest data change central bank monetary policy——— Will Wash's Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting Debut #杰克逊霍尔临近 Can Wash clarify its policy path? The closing of the US Q2 earnings season, the overall acceptance of the AI industry chain — #NVDA Earnings report release The following stages are arranged by impact on the public: (the end includes potential yen risk) 1. From the US-Iran situation to energy price fluctuations, global inflation expectations and economic stability will be determined! 1. Although the US-Iran situation is normalized, its importance cannot be ignored. If a major change occurs, large fluctuations in energy prices will disrupt the macro rhythm this week. 2. So far, priority attention is on whether the US announced the latest economic sanctions on Iran on Monday, and whether secondary sanctions are involved, as these relate to developments in the US-Iran situation. 3. Middle Eastern leaders frequently visit Tehran. Pakistan's top military leader, Munir, has already arrived in Tehran to mediate and coordinate the US-Iran situationToday, S&P 500 futures showed a weak trend, with the September contract at 7673 points, down 0.20%, hitting an intraday low of 7672 points.
The market pressure comes from five overlapping negative factors:
First, Nvidia's earnings report is due this Wednesday, and the market has set very high profit expectations for the AI sector, leading to early risk position reductions by funds; second, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, continuously suppressing valuations of high-growth tech stocks and the overall S&P 500 valuation; third, U.S.-Canada trade talks have broken down, with both sides imposing tariffs on each other, increasing risk aversion; fourth, the Jackson Hole symposium is approaching, and Federal Reserve official Waller's speech will determine the future interest rate direction, with policy uncertainty weighing on the market; fifth, Asian markets have weakened sharply, with South Korea's KOSPI down over 3%, Samsung Electronics plunging significantly, further dragging down sentiment in the global AI and semiconductor sectors.
In the short term, the market is generally bearish, but it is still too early to conclude that the upward trend has reversed.
If after the U.S. market opens, the S&P 500 effectively breaks below key support levels and the Nasdaq's decline further widens, it is likely to trigger a chain reaction of tech stock weakness → index pullback → collective pressure on risk assets across the market; conversely, if futures losses narrow quickly, the current decline is more likely a risk-off move during the earnings window and ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 Web3 / Cryptocurrency Daily Brief｜August 24, 2026④ ETH and Stablecoins｜ETH Outperforms BTC, Payment Adoption Accelerating
Ethereum has clearly outperformed Bitcoin this week, a conclusion that can be maintained. CoinDesk noted in its weekly review on August 22 that ETH rose about 18% over seven days, while BTC increased about 8.8%; during the most intense phase, ETH surged nearly 19% within 24 hours, with short covering being a key driver.
This rally is also accompanied by an accelerated integration of stablecoins into traditional payment systems. Elon Musk's X is exploring paying content creators and influencers with stablecoins; Visa is seeking new stablecoin settlement partners; HSBC and Standard Chartered have completed the first real-time interbank transaction on Swift's 24/7 ledger. A correction to the original statement is needed: it is not simply "Swift completed the first transaction," but rather HSBC and Standard Chartered used Swift's around-the-clock ledger to complete real-time interbank settlement.
ETH's short-term rise mainly stems from risk appetite recovery and market structure changes, but stablecoin payments, bank settlements, and on-chain financial infrastructure expansion are forming fundamental variables worth tracking long-term. If stablecoin settlements continue to grow in the future, on-chain activity, fee revenue, and DeFi capital scale should also be monitored simultaneously. $ETH Text by @OKX星球 @OKX成长学院 @OKX中文 Bitcoin violently surged from $62,500 to $79,500, then pulled back to $77,000; the altcoin season index just hit 67 before turning down, falling back to 44. The divergence between bulls and bears has never been so intense—ETF inflows reached $2.6 billion in a single week, yet major market makers are heavily short.
Many believe this is the start of a bull market, but I want to say it’s still a bear market; the bull market is still far, far away, though the price has risen so much.
Macro: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks will at least double, a policy shift that directly ignited market sentiment.
Capital: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.6 billion in one week, setting a historical record.
Trading: The price had been consolidating between $62,000 and $67,000 for a long time, accumulating a large number of shorts. After the breakout, shorts were forced to cover by buying, creating a "short squeeze" spiral that further pushed prices higher. $BTC High-level volatility hides deadly risks! Be extremely cautious about the major risk event at midnight
$BTC is currently consolidating around 77600, the market appears calm on the surface, but there are hidden currents and risks are accumulating📊
Tonight, focus on a critical time window: 2 PM Eastern Time (2 AM Beijing Time on August 25)
The US Treasury Secretary will hold an emergency press conference to announce the launch of the "Economic D-Day" against Iran, essentially initiating comprehensive financial maximum pressure.
If the geopolitical situation escalates further and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, oil prices will likely gap up sharply, and market inflation expectations will rise again.
The chain reaction is very clear:
Inflation rebounds → Fed rate cut expectations cool down → US dollar strengthens → Market liquidity tightens passively, and overall risk assets will be directly pressured and weaken.
Looking at the technical side, $BTC has risen from 60,000 to now, with the 4-hour RSI once reaching an extreme overbought level of 93.
The market has accumulated a large amount of profit-taking positions, the technical indicators are severely overextended and urgently need a deep pullback to digest.
Tonight's breaking news is just the fuse accelerating the adjustment, not the sole reason for a market reversal.
A sincere reminder here: absolutely avoid heavy overnight positions tonight, avoid stubbornly holding one-sided positions.
Do not confront the critical midnight window and breaking news head-on, and do not stay up late watching the market or compete with the main players' speed. Institutions have the dual advantage of data and capital; the only protection for retail investors is to control position size and reduce risk.
Especially altcoins and niche tokens, avoid them all tonight.
At such geopolitical risk nodes, the main players love to violently spike prices using news and conduct two-way shakeouts, specifically to harvest funds from trend-following traders. I have suffered many such losses in altcoin markets in the past and fully understand: behind short-term windfall profits lie uncontrollable hidden risks.
Currently, my position strategy is very conservative:
Spot holdings only retain core $BTC positions, paired with a small amount of $OKB as a base hedge against volatility; all other coins are fully out of the market, observing without taking risks.
The market never ends; the real end is when the principal is lost.
Respect the news, respect market uncertainty, stay steady amid high volatility🧊
$ETH
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 The core catalyst accelerating the short positions on $SNXX on August 24 was Samsung's shareholder return plan falling short of expectations—Q3 return amount was not impressive, the buyback plan was scrapped, and the shareholder return ratio was locked at 50% without an increase. JPMorgan bluntly stated "no positive surprises." This directly triggered a collective pre-market decline in memory stocks: SanDisk fell over 4%, Micron dropped over 3%, SK Hynix declined over 3%.
As a 2x leveraged product tracking SNDK, SNXX acts as an amplifier for sector negative news—SNDK spot fell 4%, SNXX targeted an 8% drop. Coupled with the fact that on August 22, just a slight stagnation and pullback in SNDK triggered a chain liquidation and passive deleveraging within SNXX. Short opened at 15.39, precisely positioning for the triple resonance of "Investor Day positive realization (939 billion long-term contract priced in on August 13) + Samsung plan falling short of expectations + internal deleveraging in leveraged products."
Event-driven declines can be sharp but may also reverse quickly. If SNDK holds the 1500-1515 range, a technical rebound may occur. With 20x leverage, the tolerance is only 5%; after floating profits exceed 2.5x, exit in batches without greed for the final segment. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BITCOIN’S BIGGEST INSTITUTIONAL SHIFT MIGHT NOT BE WHO’S BUYING BTC
Bitcoin can rally on institutional demand without every institution buying BTC directly.
ETF inflows are surging, while Strategy just raid $2B without adding a single Bitcoin.
That raises a more interesting question:
Are institutions buying Bitcoinor simply finding new ways to get exposure to it?
The bigger shift may not be who is buying BTC.
It may be how institutions are choosing to play the Bitcoin trade.
#DailyOrbit Has the altcoin season really returned?
$ENA and $PUMP have surged recently, altcoins are clearly heating up, but I think this looks more like capital starting to test high Beta assets rather than a true altcoin season.
The old logic was $BTC rises → $ETH rises → altcoin rotation → all coins flying together.
Now it's obviously different; capital prefers projects with real revenue, users, and catalysts. ENA has stablecoins and yield narratives, PUMP has a trading ecosystem, and HYPE has real protocol revenue.
So the key focus this round is that capital is starting to pick coins. Even if an altcoin season comes in the future, it’s likely that a few strong assets will absorb most of the liquidity rather than all coins flying together.
Next, watch three key signals:
Whether BTC can hold at a high level
Whether ETH can continue to outperform BTC
Whether BTC dominance starts to decline significantly
If only ENA, PUMP, and HYPE keep running wild, I’m more inclined to see it as a risk appetite recovery.
A true altcoin season requires capital to continuously diffuse from the top assets.
My judgment is that the altcoin market may have started to warm up, but the era of blindly buying coins and all coins flying together is very unlikely to return.
Not investment advice, DYOR
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 BTC实时行情 截至发稿，BTC报 77,600美元附近，日内最高约 77,778美元、最低约 76,694美元。经历上周约23%的急涨后，今天主要在高位横盘消化。 ETF资金 最近完整美国交易日8月21日，美国现货BTC ETF合计净流入约3.075亿美元，连续第 5个交易日净流入；上周累计流入约 19.2亿美元。 这意味着上周上涨并非只有挤空，机构现货资金已经形成连续承接。 稳定币流动性 USDT最新规模约 1832.1亿美元，较8月17日增加约 2亿美元；USDC约 735.4亿美元，较8月17日增加约 17.3亿美元。 近一周主要增量明显来自USDC，USDT基本稳定。相比月中链上美元流动性停滞的状态，目前已出现更实质的改善，与ETF连续流入方向一致。 合约数据 BTC期货未平仓量约 545.4亿美元，24小时下降 2.65%；主流永续资金费率仍在 0.01%左右，普通账户多空比约 0.924，整体偏空而非多头拥挤。 周末回调中，BTC多单24小时爆仓约 5582万美元。价格随后重新回到77,000美元上方，而OI没有快速重建，说明这次回撤更多是在清理前几天追涨杠杆，目前尚未出Web3 / Cryptocurrency Daily Brief｜August 24, 2026③ BTC｜The rise is real, but the core is liquidity and short squeeze
Bitcoin’s strong rebound this week is indeed real, but the driving force needs to be described more precisely. According to CoinDesk data, BTC reclaimed the $70,000 level this week and is approaching the $80,000 mark; over $4 billion in crypto short positions across the market were liquidated within two days, creating a positive feedback loop of "short squeeze — price increase — continued forced liquidations." Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury expanded its Treasury repo operations to improve bond market liquidity, serving as a key macro catalyst for the risk asset rebound. Policy momentum is also heating up: Trump urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, CFTC Chair Michael Selig called on staff to prepare a digital asset regulatory framework even if the bill does not pass, the SEC is pushing forward rules related to Regulation Crypto, and the Treasury has begun drafting implementation details for the GENIUS Act stablecoin regulations.
Therefore, attributing this round of gains simply to a single positive factor is inaccurate. A more reasonable explanation is the combined effect of "improved liquidity + rising regulatory expectations + forced short covering." From a trading structure perspective, this type of forced liquidation-driven rally moves quickly, but if there is no sustained net inflow from ETFs and spot buying to follow, a sharp pullback could also occur. It remains important to distinguish between a "trend reversal" and a "short squeeze-style rebound." $BTC @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 $ETH's inner monologue — You chasing the highs and selling the lows is really funny.
I am ETH, currently at 2448. Up less than 1%, and the market is restless again.
At 2087, you shouted "ETH will go to zero"; at 2549, you shouted "Rushing to 3000, super cycle." But from 2549 it dropped to 2380, those who chased the highs got trapped, panicked and sold at a loss, and now at 2448, you're hesitating again.
Actually, the worst thing for the market is emotional swings. There is selling pressure from trapped positions at 2480-2500 above, support at 2400-2420 below, and currently it looks more like a range-bound consolidation.
So don’t chase just because it rises a bit, and don’t panic just because it falls a bit. Before a clear breakout, patiently waiting for direction might be more important than frequent trading.
The above is just personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 Last week, $BTC spot ETF net inflows reached $1.92 billion, the highest since October last year. Net inflows continued for 5 consecutive trading days, with trading volume surging from 6.9 billion to 22.1 billion, tripling. BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbed 1.3 billion.
More importantly, the Coinbase premium index. This indicator stayed in negative territory for 97 days, setting a historical record for the longest duration, and finally turned positive last week. The spot buying demand in the US domestic market has returned, not just a unilateral rally from the Asia-Pacific market. Some quant traders say this indicator is even more solid than ETF data because it reflects real onshore demand in hard cash.
But on the flip side: in the past three days, 53,000 $BTC flowed into exchanges, mainly short-term holders selling. The tug of war between ETF buying and exchange selling pressure will determine the direction.
My personal conclusion: bullish in the medium term. Continuous ETF inflows + premium turning positive = institutional return. But short-term profit-taking is not yet fully digested, so definitely don’t chase above 78K!!
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Fundamental Research Report $TAO / Bittensor (AI/Compute Power) $237.11 (24h +4.89%)
To put it simply: Bittensor ($TAO) has a composite score of 42/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking it down into three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network has weak usage evidence, and the token's value transmission still needs observation.
Project Overview: Bittensor (token $TAO) operates in the AI/compute power sector. It focuses on a distributed AI network and Subnet incentives. Competitors include RNDR and FET. Traditional compute power rental is dominated by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by GPU hours, with A100 monthly rental fees ranging from $12,000 to $25,000, which is expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment compute power for bidding, allowing suppliers to avoid centralized audits, turning idle GPUs into available supply. The average customer price is $50–$500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment is in testing or pilot phases, with code progress ongoing; mainnet/product stages depend on the official roadmap. The latest version is v10.5.0, with 9,920 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User Metrics: Monthly Active Addresses (MAU) and Daily Active Addresses (DAU) are undisclosed; 24h trading volume is $252.30M; TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed; supplier income is approximately 80-90% of user fees (distributed to LPs and nodes); protocol treasury income undisclosed; token holder buyback and burn has no annualized burn mechanism. The 24h trading volume represents business flow, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, and protocol profits do not equal token holder profits. Code side: 9,920 valid commits in 90 days, 100 active contributors, latest version v10.5.0. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A); token private and public sales are documented in the whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A); market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs; technical integration is grade B based on API/SDK evidence; strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. Use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equal NVIDIA investment; exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token Metrics: Total supply 21,000,000.0, circulating supply 9,597,491.0 (45.7%), FDV $4.98B, next unlock undisclosed (percentage of circulating undisclosed), no clear annualized buyback and burn mechanism. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, with moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (using consistent criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): Circulating market cap: Bittensor $2.28B, RNDR undisclosed, FET undisclosed. FDV: Bittensor $4.98B, RNDR undisclosed, FET undisclosed. Annualized revenue: all undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: all undisclosed. Data based on public snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $2.28B, FDV $4.98B, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic scenario values circulating market cap at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario assumes revenue doubling, burn implementation, and enterprise clients, aligning FDV P/S with top projects. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 42/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap is reasonable or slightly undervalued relative to fundamentals; FDV is moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlocks causing sell-offs, protocol revenue long-term dropping to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key metrics to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, reassessment is needed.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit🔥OKB surged to 119.69 then pulled back, hovering around 110. Why is the 120 level so hard to break? $OKB
On August 24, OKB was priced at $110.21, down slightly by 0.56% in 24h, with a daily range of 105.58–113.00; from July 24's 81.57 to the August 22 peak of 119.69, it rose 46% in one month, currently showing a typical "high-level turnover after a sharp rally."
In the recent 13 hours of volatility, there was no exclusive catalyst for OKB—CMC clearly pointed out that this 3.05 percentage point fluctuation in OKB mostly followed the broader market: since August 19, BTC rose from mid-60,000s to nearly 80,000, the total crypto market cap increased by about $500 billion in a day and a half, followed by a flash crash and tens of billions in liquidations. OKB, as a high-beta "exchange platform token," was swept up in this, not due to its own news. In other words, the area around 110 is not an independent OKB trend but a reaction linked to the overall market.
The real key is the chip structure:
$70–85: The largest accumulation zone since 2026, a very strong short-term bottom
$100–120: The most important historical heavy lock-in zone since 2025, the current price is stuck here, repeatedly grinding
$120–170: Very sparse chips above; if volume increases and it stabilizes above 120, selling pressure will quickly drop, and the vacuum zone directly targets the previous highs of $142–237 $OKB #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ Folks, Kashkari spoke out today with a very direct attitude — U.S. Treasuries are not malfunctioning, and the Fed won't intervene.
He said the 10-year Treasury yield is close to 4.7%, but market trading and liquidity remain normal. The Fed doesn't need to directly respond to long-end rate fluctuations and should continue focusing on inflation. The implication is that the rise in long bonds is your own issue; don't expect the Fed to come to the rescue.
Meanwhile, the Treasury has already taken action. The liquidity support repo cap for long-term Treasuries from 10 to 30 years has been raised from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective from September 9 to November 4. The 30-year Treasury yield subsequently fell from 5.34%.
But Kashkari's remarks highlight a key point: Treasury repos are mainly for liquidity management and debt optimization, not a prelude to rate cuts or QE. These are two separate operations and should not be confused.
The current debate is whether the rise in long-end yields is due to short-term trading pressure or a structural reassessment driven by fiscal deficits and inflation expectations. If it's the former, repos can stabilize the market. If the latter, this scale of repos can only reduce volatility but cannot suppress rising financing costs.
For BTC, high long-term yields will suppress valuations, but Treasury repos signal a liquidity floor. BTC is likely to oscillate between 75,000 and 78,000 in the short term. After PCE and Jackson Hole events, the direction will become clearer. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP $SNDK SanDisk's strategy today is very on point!!!
The current approach remains unchanged: short on any rebound!
From the current market situation, the overall trend has not shown a clear reversal yet; bears still hold the advantage. Be patient if there is no good entry point, and absolutely do not chase.
Next, focus on the strength of the rebound. As long as a suitable high-level opportunity arises, don't miss out on any profits!!!
The trend hasn't changed, the strategy remains the same, keep waiting to get in on the rebound!!! #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 l$BTC currently hovers in the $75,000–$77,000 range, having previously surged to $78,500; $ETH is holding steadily above $2,300. Recently, the return of spot ETF funds and short closing have provided additional momentum for the market rebound, but funds remain clearly concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Looking at the performance of altcoins, $BEAT, $BICO, $KAITO, $LAB, $SNDK, and others still lack sustained volume growth and clear signal of trend reversal, and market risk appetite has not yet fully spread. The latest data shows that over the past week, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw a combined net inflow of about $2.6 billion, with institutional funds returning to the market, but currently more focused on core assets. What truly deserves attention is not a single bullish candlestick, but whether funds begin to spread from BTC and ETH to high-beta altcoins. Before trading volume and liquidity have clearly spilled over, this is more like a BTC-led recovery rally rather than a full-blown Altseason. #BTC #ETH #Altcoins #Crypto #BitcoinETF$LIT smart money has shifted from "halving profit-taking" to a complete exit.
The same swing whale with a leaderboard score of 73 and about 3.1m USD profit in the past 30 days previously sold about 333.6k USD and retained about 367.9k USD in core long positions. Today from 10:57 to 11:08 UTC, it sold the remaining 100,000 LIT, transacting about 343.2k USD and realizing about 101.4k USD in profit.
Official snapshots twice show $LIT holdings reduced to zero with no open orders; the two exits total about 676.8k USD, realizing about 196.0k USD in profit.
This is not a continued reduction in position but a complete exit. BTC surged from 62,000 all the way above 77,000, with a single-week increase of 23%. It is currently consolidating at a high level, and short-term profit-taking faces pressure to realize gains.
The US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive days last week, totaling $1.92 billion, hitting a 10-month high. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $1.3 billion, representing solid institutional entry.
This round of the market was ignited by a short squeeze plus a decline in US Treasury yields. Institutions have already started treating BTC as an allocation asset.
78,000‑80,000 is the next major test.
A short-term pullback to 74,000‑75,000 is a normal correction;
As long as ETF funds do not dry up and the weekly line holds above 70,000, the mid-term logic remains intact.
Trading strategy: Do not chase highs, buy on pullbacks, exit on breakdowns, hold for the mid-term, and don’t get shaken out by volatility.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
$ETH $BTC 2026Saylor just broke the pattern. 👀
During the biggest Bitcoin move since election week 2024, Michael Saylor bought zero BTC.
That’s unusual.
The last two times BTC had a +20% weekly move, Saylor bought 12K BTC and then 79K BTC into those rallies.
And here’s the bigger picture:
Since July 2024, every major BTC move ended higher 3 months later, with an average gain of around +30%.
So if history is rhyming…
this might not be the top. It might be the setup.
Higher. 📈
#DailyOrbit Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $1.92 billion, the highest since October 2025. Core data: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $1.92 billion, the highest weekly inflow since October 2025. During the same period, Bitcoin prices rebounded strongly, reaching $78,000 last Friday. Notably, just last week, Bitcoin ETFs were still experiencing net capital outflows. In just one week, capital sentiment reversed rapidly, reflecting the structure of funds This round of inflows is highly concentrated in leading ETFs like BlackRock IBIT, mainly with traditional institutional funds entering the market, not dominated by retail investors. Ethereum spot ETFs also saw capital inflows simultaneously, indicating that the crypto sector is attracting institutional attention overall. The overall asset management scale and trading activity of ETFs have risen simultaneously. The logic behind the inflow: on one hand, the rapid rise in coin prices attracts institutions to allocate Bitcoin through ETFs, while funds need to buy spot BTC, further boosting prices and forming a short-term positive cycle. On the other hand, rising market expectations for Federal Reserve easing have attracted capital over risk assets, driving a recovery in crypto asset allocation sentiment. Risks to watch are lagging indicators. ETF funds are lagging indicators Large inflows do not necessarily mean the market will continue to rise on one side. Once the token price pulls back, institutions will quickly redeem it, causing capital outflows and suppressing the market. Going forward, it will be important to closely monitor whether ETF funds can maintain net inflows and changes in macro liquidity. 0824 Nearly 1 Hour Capital Flow Ranking as of 20:40 See what capital has been doing in the past hourAltcoins have been collectively restless these past two days. Combining the latest on-chain and sentiment data, the optimistic sentiment around altcoins has fully heated up. The much-discussed altcoin season is entering a critical phase of accelerated sentiment release. Two major data points confirm the explosive heat: • Glassnode data shows that currently 85% of altcoin funding rates are above their respective historical averages, setting the highest record since BTC last hit a historical high. The derivatives market's long positions are highly crowded. In a complete altcoin market cycle, such high funding rates can persist for several weeks. • Today's Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 73, just one step away from the peak of 74 in the past year, approaching the sentiment level before the "1011" crash. The entire market has entered the greed zone, with risk appetite continuously rising and funds flowing into the highly volatile altcoin sector. The direction of the altcoin season is determined by the major coins. How far the altcoin market can go still hinges on the trend of major coins, which corresponds closely with the current technical outlook of ETH: ETH weekly chart is clearly overbought, with price significantly deviating from the moving average system, indicating a clear need for a technical pullback; short-term 6-hour and 12-hour MACD show bearish divergence, with bullish momentum continuously weakening. The following two paths will directly determine the lifespan of the altcoin season: 1. Direct pullback and stabilization: a more durable market. ETH falls back to the $2070-2200 moving average support to complete turnover, then stabilizes and enters a narrow range. Major coins face no systemic crash risk, funds will continue to spill over, and the altcoin market will shift from broad gains to thematic rotation, with stronger sustainability. 2. Pump and dump: early end$BTC I did miss out on part of this rally, but I have no intention of chasing the remaining funds all in at the high to make up for it.
Currently, I have converted only about 40% of my originally planned investment into BTC spot. Moving forward to accumulate chips, I mainly use two methods:
The first is selling put options.
I choose positions I was already willing to buy. If the price doesn't drop, I collect the premium; if the price drops, I take on the corresponding long exposure.
The second is a coin-margined grid strategy without market price entry.
When setting up the grid, I don't open positions directly at market price but place orders stepwise below the current price. If the market doesn't pull back, I accept earning a bit less; if the market does pull back, the grid will gradually build positions as planned. If it later enters consolidation, the grid can also accumulate some coin-margined returns.
I believe the current risk is still manageable because only about 40% of my chips have been converted into the target, and there is still some capital that can be invested in batches when the price drops to supplement margin and reduce the overall holding cost. Bitcoin can rally on institutional demand without every institution buying BTC directly.
ETF inflows are surging while Strategy just raised $2B without adding a single BTC.
That changes the interesting question.
The bigger institutional shift may not be who is buying Bitcoin.
It may be how institutions are choosing to gain exposure to it.49.6 million holders crush gold: Bitcoin completes generational surpass, trillion-dollar valuation gap closing
Latest statistics show that the number of adults in the United States currently holding Bitcoin has reached 49.6 million, nearly 21 million more than the 28.8 million gold holders. After five thousand years of historical accumulation, gold has been generationally surpassed by Bitcoin, which has only been around for a little over a decade, in the key dimension of population penetration. Nearly one-fifth of the adult population in the U.S. holds Bitcoin, marking its complete transformation from a niche geek toy to an irreversible, nationwide core asset.
The more critical competition lies in the extremely large valuation gap behind this. In terms of holder scale, Bitcoin has reached 1.7 times that of gold, but its total market value is only about one-tenth of gold's. This divergence, where the user base leads by a large margin but the market value is severely inverted, clearly reflects that the holder group mainly consists of millennials and emerging wealth. As tens of trillions of dollars in generational wealth transfer from the baby boomer generation in the coming decades, combined with the normalization of spot ETFs and pension channels, the transmission of adoption rate to capital density will unleash huge revaluation dividends.
Facing the generational inflection point where the number of holders surpasses gold by 21 million, when do you think Bitcoin's market value can truly catch up with gold? In your long-term asset allocation, do you prefer physical gold or digital gold?
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Over the weekend, news of Nvidia's server price hike of over 15% went viral, and many people's first reaction was "AI computing power continues to thrive, tech stocks are going to keep rising." But today, the tech stock performance delivered a slap in the face—many sectors plunged, shattering the "price hike boost" narrative. This price hike logic is completely different from the first half of the year. 1. The essence of the price increase: not a surge in demand, but a cost push. The core reason for this price hike is the soaring price of HBM memory chips. AI servers demand HBM 8 to 20 times that of regular servers, and global HBM capacity is heavily concentrated among Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. As storage cost share rises, no matter how high Nvidia's gross margin is, it cannot withstand the pressure of upstream price hikes and can only pass costs downstream. This is not a proactive price hike driven by explosive AI demand, but a passive increase in costs across the industry chain. The market interprets this as "continued prosperity," but in reality, it confuses "tight supply and demand" with "unlimited demand." 2. Transmission Chain: From Cloud Providers to US Treasuries, and Then to Tech Stock Valuations The most easily overlooked aspect of this price increase is its impact on macro liquidity. 1. Cloud Vendor Debt Scale Expansion Cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have been aggressively borrowing money to expand computing power. Since 2026, the total debt of the five major US tech giants has approached $220 billion, far exceeding the $108 billion total for the entire year of 2025. Now, with servers rising another 15%, their capital expenditures will continue to increase$BTC Breaking above the 200-week moving average: Will historical patterns really repeat?
BTC reclaimed the 200-week moving average this week, which is one of the most important bull-bear dividing lines in technical analysis. In January 2023, after BTC also broke above this moving average, it rose about 48% in 90 days, rising from $19,000 all the way up to above $28,000, kicking off a nearly two-year bull market.
Now the signal is coming back — BTC started at $60,000, reached a high of $79,800, with a weekly gain of over 30%. Unlike 2023, this round is supported by sustained net ETF inflows, accelerated institutional allocation, and improved macro liquidity, making the driving logic more solid and not simply seen as a rebound.
But precisely because the signal is too clear, market consensus expectations easily cause short-term chip crowding. The 200-week moving average is a reference anchor for long-term positioning, not an excuse for chasing gains. History will repeat itself, but it will not repeat itself. The signal is clear, and the rhythm determines victory or defeatENA is close to doubling, PUMP surges, Meme coins and some DeFi tokens are recovering simultaneously, and the long-dormant altcoin market is finally becoming active again. However, from the perspective of capital and market structure, this looks more like a localized correction rather than the official start of a full altcoin season.
This round of gains is mainly concentrated in a few high-volatility assets, each with clear catalysts behind them, and capital has not fully flowed into small and mid-cap tokens. Meanwhile, Bitcoin still holds the core position in the market, and the overall performance of altcoins relative to BTC has not reached the confirmation standard of a traditional altcoin season.
More importantly, the market structure in this cycle has changed. Institutional funds entering the market through ETFs and crypto treasuries now prefer highly liquid, fundamentally clear leading assets. The past pattern of "BTC rallies first, ETH takes over, then thousands of coins soar together" is weakening.
Additionally, the number of new coins continues to increase, further dispersing limited liquidity, making it increasingly difficult for projects relying purely on hype to secure sustained funding.
Therefore, even if the altcoin rally continues to spread, it is more likely to be a structural bull market. What truly deserves attention are projects with real users, protocol revenue, product implementation, and long-term demand. An altcoin season may be brewing, but the era of "blindly buying and everything goes up" has most likely passed. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Today, I actually don't want to call this wave a bull market.
BTC has risen about 23% in five days, once surging close to $79,000, and in the past week, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a net inflow of about $1.9 billion. On the surface, price, capital, and sentiment have all returned.
But there's one issue that can't be ignored: the first half of this rally was mixed with a very obvious short squeeze. On August 19, when BTC broke through, over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within a single hour. In other words, a fast rise doesn't mean the new buying volume is equally strong.
So what I'm more concerned about now isn't "how much more BTC can rise," but the next two things:
First, whether the price can hold after the short squeeze ends.
Second, whether capital will truly spread from BTC to those coins that haven't started yet.
If later BTC just moves sideways at a high level while altcoins surge one after another in a day, then it's most likely still a sentiment-driven market;
If BTC stabilizes, ETFs continue to flow in, and meanwhile a batch of coins start to show volume increases, open interest slowly rising but prices haven't yet moved up, that's the stage I really want to wait for.
After a rise, anyone can find good news.
What’s truly valuable is finding assets where capital has already entered but prices haven't moved yet, before everyone is shouting about the rally.
These days, I’m not short of coins I want to buy; what I lack are coins worth positioning in advance.
$BTC BTC is oscillating at a high level near 77571, with the total market capitalization reaching 2.71 trillion. ETH is strengthening in sync, quoted at 2458, up 1.27%.
U.S. stocks closed higher across the board last night, with crypto-related concept stocks collectively surging; Robinhood soared 13%‑14%.
📌 Key Macro Events
1. Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech on August 28 is his most watched public address since taking office, with the market awaiting monetary policy signals. Institutions warn that if the tone is more dovish but falls short of expectations, it could further intensify the selling pressure on U.S. long bonds.
2. Basent confirmed that on the 24th, measures to isolate Iran's economy will be introduced, targeting Iranian oil purchases, fund transfers, and ship-to-ship transfers, accompanied by secondary sanctions threats. Iran responded strongly: once the economic war begins, oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf may be interrupted, with energy risks looming overhead.
📌 Industry News
Nvidia has notified some major clients that AI servers will see price increases, with most orders rising over 15%, mainly due to a significant rise in memory chip costs. AI infrastructure supply and demand remain tight, and storage chips have become the core bottleneck.
📊 Crypto Market Analysis
BTC current price 77571
Below 75000‑77000 range, long liquidation pressure has been largely relieved;
Above 78000‑80000, short leverage continues to accumulate, and once effectively broken through, it can easily trigger a chain reaction of short covering to boost the market.
The overall direction has not changed, only the pace of the rise has shifted, with high-level oscillation digesting chips.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#BTC oscillates after rallying, ETF funds continue to flow in
#ETH oscillates after hitting $2500
Trader DogZong ETH surged directly from 1900 to 2550 in this wave, with a weekly increase of nearly 30%, showing much greater elasticity than BTC.
However, the rapid rise was followed by a quick pullback, dropping back to around 2400 after touching the 2550 high, which is typical after a short-term sharp rally that requires sufficient turnover to digest floating profits.
The data is very intuitive:
ETH rose 29.8% last week, compared to Bitcoin's 22.9%, significantly outperforming. On August 19, there was a violent single-day surge of 17.5%, pulling directly from 1917 up above 2250, marking the strongest rally since mid-April.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded to 0.031, with funds starting to rotate into Ethereum's leading assets.
This round of gains is driven by three resonating factors:
① Ethereum spot ETF net inflow of $697 million in one week, institutional funds entering the market;
② Shorts liquidated $1.69 billion over three days, with forced liquidations acting as a turbo for the rally, creating a short squeeze;
③ US Treasury repo suppressing long-term yields, weakening the dollar, and overall risk assets receiving liquidity support.
On-chain data also supports this: ETH supply on exchanges dropped 15% within the month, staked total surpassed 42 million, reducing the actual sellable market supply.
But failing to hold the 2550 level also signals technical warnings:
Daily RSI hit 86, entering severe overbought territory; price deviated significantly from the upper Bollinger Band by 5.5%, making short-term chasing less cost-effective, naturally triggering profit-taking pressure.
Outlook:
The first resistance zone above is 2440‑2510; only by stabilizing above this range can ETH challenge 2550 and even 2750 again.
Key support below is 2210‑2130; a decisive break below would weaken the short-term trend.
Short-term, it is highly likely to oscillate between 2400‑2500 to digest positions.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
Trader GouZongHyperliquid: From Perp DEX to a 24/7 Global Trading Market (4)
If regulatory relaxation progresses in tandem with institutional products, Hyperliquid's future potential will no longer be limited to crypto perpetual contracts. What the market truly focuses on now is whether it can further expand on-chain trading of spot, tokenized assets, and traditional financial assets. In recent years, tokenization of U.S. stocks, gold, commodities, and indices has become a key direction for the entire industry. If in the future stocks, commodities, indices, and other assets can achieve around-the-clock on-chain trading through compliant frameworks, Hyperliquid has the opportunity to evolve from a "Perp DEX" into a broader 24/7 global trading market.
This logic also explains why the market continuously compares Hyperliquid with early infrastructure assets like BNB and Solana. BNB initially relied on the Binance exchange and gradually gained platform ecosystem value as users and trading volume expanded; SOL was initially seen as a high-performance public chain and later formed a more complete network effect through applications, DEX, DeFi, and Meme ecosystems. HYPE follows a third path: first perfecting a high-frequency trading application, then building the underlying network and ecosystem in response to trading demand. If this model succeeds, its value source may not be "how many applications are deployed on the chain," but rather "how many global assets ultimately choose to trade here" $SOL @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 Don't rush to short $BTC right now, why?
The US spot BTC ETF is warming up, with a net inflow of $1.9 billion last week, and it has attracted funds for 5 consecutive days. The premium index has turned positive again, indicating that US spot buying is coming back.
But it's not without pressure; in the past few days, 53,000 BTC have flowed into exchanges, meaning some short-term money is taking profits, and selling pressure is indeed increasing.
However, the problem is that while there is selling pressure, the bulls are stronger.
The sell orders above the current market are not thick, and although weekend volume shrank, the bears have not launched a counterattack either.
So I tend to believe: before the news on Tuesday, BTC still has a chance to surge near 82,000.
If the news is positive, it will continue to rise; if negative, it will first consolidate and then pull back.
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Hyperliquid: Real Revenue and Institutional Entry (3)
From a business model perspective, this is also the biggest difference between HYPE and many purely narrative tokens. Hyperliquid already has real trading volume and protocol fee income, and the market's main focus is whether this income can continuously flow back into HYPE's token economic system. According to relevant public materials, Hyperliquid has allocated a considerable portion of platform revenue to mechanisms such as HYPE buybacks. This means that HYPE's valuation logic is attempting to shift from the traditional "user growth × story" to "trading volume × protocol revenue × value capture." This is especially important for Crypto Native capital because the future market is increasingly likely to reward protocols that can truly generate cash flow, rather than simply rewarding grand narratives.
Another incremental variable comes from traditional capital entry. After Grayscale launched the Hyperliquid staking product, it quickly accumulated a certain asset scale, indicating that HYPE has begun entering the institutional product packaging stage. In the past, whether a token could be allocated by traditional investors largely depended on whether they were willing to set up wallets, cross chains, and bear on-chain operational risks; but once ETFs or similar securitized products gradually mature, these complex operations may be encapsulated. For traditional capital, what they may be buying is no longer an "on-chain coin," but an investment product that can be placed in a regular securities account. $HYPE @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 Is the U.S. policy quietly loosening restrictions on the crypto market? Strategy increased its holdings of STRC by $136 million last week, raising its dollar reserves to $6.685 billion. If this signals a liquidity release, the market may have already priced it in early.
1) Has the market responded? BTC and ETH rose by 2.11% and 3.13% respectively within 24 hours, with a narrowing price range, indicating short-term sentiment stabilization. However, whether this rebound stems from improved liquidity still needs verification.
2) Where is the real impact? Federal Reserve experiments show that over the past year, Bitcoin’s gains have significantly increased the probability of households holding crypto assets, indicating that asset appeal has formed path dependence at the household level. If U.S. stocks strengthen due to policy expectations, this could transmit risk appetite to the crypto market.
3) Both sides must be considered: A positive signal is that the U.S. economic isolation of Iran may reinforce the dollar’s status as the global settlement currency, enhancing its liquidity support. On the downside, if the U.S. tightens its participation threshold in the global financial system, it could trigger capital outflows and suppress risk asset performance.
4) What answers are we waiting for? Currently, no official data indicates that U.S. fiscal or trade policies have directly adjusted the crypto asset regulatory framework. Only if central banks increase crypto asset holdings or issue clear policy guidance will the market truly confirm the transmission path.
This is for informational and market scenario analysis purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.