Orbit Post Sitemap
Seeing last week's Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF assets surge by $23 billion, do you think institutions are frantically buying?
The reality might not involve that much new capital entering the market.
According to the latest data reported by Decrypt, out of this $23 billion AUM (Assets Under Management) increase, only $2.6 billion is actual "new money" inflow.
So where did the remaining $20+ billion come from? It's all due to the underlying coin price appreciation and the liquidation of short positions.
During $BTC's breakout past key resistance levels, about $4 billion worth of short positions were forcibly liquidated within two days. This short-squeeze-induced "stampede buyback" became the strongest fuel driving the price surge.
Therefore, this rally is essentially a "revaluation of existing holdings + leverage liquidations," rather than a systemic inflow of genuine external incremental funds.
Looking at a longer timeframe, year-to-date, these two major ETFs still show a net outflow deficit of about $3.1 billion.
The single-day biggest capital inflow still comes from BlackRock's IBIT, with the oligopoly's bloodletting effect intensifying.
Relying on short-squeeze liquidations can indeed create short-term hype, but for the market to truly stabilize and kick off a raging bull run, we must see sustained volume-driven net buying in the spot channels. A large-scale short squeeze in Bitcoin drives the price up, with futures open interest significantly declining. Over the past week, Bitcoin surged rapidly from around $62,000 to about $80,000, marking the second-largest weekly gain in nearly five years. Unlike previous rallies, this increase was not driven by a large influx of new long leverage. Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest dropped from approximately 646,000 contracts on August 14 to about 588,000 contracts, hitting a nearly five-month low. This indicates that many shorts betting on price declines were forced to buy back to close or were liquidated, creating a classic short squeeze that further pushed prices higher. Meanwhile, the perpetual contract funding rate remained at a relatively low level, showing that the market did not exhibit overly aggressive bullish positions. This structure is viewed by the market as relatively healthy: derivative participation has decreased, especially contracts using cryptocurrency as margin have fallen to historic lows, helping to reduce volatility risk and making the rally more sustainable. Overall, the current price increase is driven more by short covering rather than new leverage accumulation.
$BTC $BTC
Last cycle gave us a tight 56-day low followed by 98 days of range-bound price action.
That consolidation was the real accumulation phase.
Current price is working through a longer 84-day base.
If the same 98-day window repeats, the next major expansion is still months away.
Time symmetry is still the cleanest read on the HTF.#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
$BTC breaks through 80,000, tonight's $NVDA Nvidia earnings report is the most critical for the AI industry chain this week.
The market expects Nvidia's Q2 revenue to be about $92 billion, with a 2% margin of error — a $1 billion difference will determine whether this earnings report is "in line with expectations" or "exceeds expectations."
Several potential upside support points:
First, demand for Blackwell remains strong. Wedbush mentioned in a June report that the supply tightness of the Grace Blackwell system is "unprecedented since Ampere/Hopper." TrendForce expects Blackwell to account for 71% of Nvidia's high-end GPU shipments by 2026.
Second, Rubin is ramping up ahead of schedule. Analysts expect Rubin chips to contribute about $9 billion in revenue in Q3, and AWS has announced it will add over 1 million Blackwell and Rubin GPUs starting in 2026.
Third, the entry of H200 into the Chinese market brings additional increments. Nvidia's official guidance has excluded revenue from Chinese data centers, but FT reported that H200 chips have been approved for small-batch entry into mainland China, with ByteDance and Tencent each receiving about 10,000 units — this part is not within expectations, and if confirmed, it will be pure incremental revenue.
AXTI is the indium phosphide substrate supplier upstream in Nvidia's optical interconnect supply chain. If tonight's earnings exceed expectations, the semiconductor equipment chain will likely recover accordingly. Family, today let's talk about an interesting transmission chain.
Kazakhstan has lowered its 2026 oil production target from 98 million tons to 96 million tons, a reduction of 2 million tons, mainly related to attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium facilities. Many people see this news and their first reaction is, "I trade BTC, why care about oil?" Hehe, the most intriguing part of the financial market is right here.
A reduction of 2 million tons itself isn't huge, but in the current environment—with Middle East tensions, the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, transportation, crude oil inventories—the entire energy market is already very tight. Production cuts will push oil prices up, and when oil prices rise, living costs go up, prices increase, and inflation pressure rises. When inflation rises, the Federal Reserve's expectation of rate cuts might change, and they might even have to raise rates.
After rate hikes, there is less money in the market, institutions tend to become conservative, and high-risk assets like stocks, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies become less attractive. They prefer to buy gold, U.S. Treasuries, or even deposit money in banks. Then the chain links the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, stocks, and BTC together.
An oil news story that seems completely unrelated to you might ultimately affect your BTC position, or even cause you to get liquidated. If crypto traders only focus on coins, they can easily become blind. BTC is increasingly like a macro asset now; you have to watch the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, liquidity, and sometimes even fate. Family, do you understand this chain? Let's discuss in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The CoinShares weekly report mentioned that the expectation of US regulators promoting Hyperliquid to enter the US market under a compliance framework is one of the important recent catalysts for HYPE.
However, policy themes have a characteristic: prices rise fastest when expectations form, but may fluctuate repeatedly before actual implementation.
HYPE funding rate is about +0.0068%, which is not extreme at the moment, but after approaching historical highs, policy progress and price trends should be judged separately.
#HYPE #HyperliquidWith the midterm elections approaching, VIX futures have already started pricing in — 17.4 for September, 19 for October, 19.7 for November; volatility is rising, and the market is preparing for the outcome. My judgment is: If Trump wins, $BTC and $ETH can hold in the short term and have a bottom in the long term. He will likely promote crypto heavily — capital gains tax adjusted for inflation, signing executive orders to push BTC reserves; these messages are enough to trigger a market pulse. CoThe market is entering a phase 🔍 where early positioning is needed rather than catching up afterward. The most noteworthy signal right now is that the rhythm of capital flows is changing: large-cap blue chips and Ethereum are expected to launch first, then gradually spread to smaller coins. This sequence means that if we only focus on catch-up stocks, we may miss the most certain first wave of the market. From the perspective of capital structure, the perpetual contract sector remains one of the most solid cash flow businesses in the crypto ecosystem. This judgment is not baseless but based on trading depth and user stickiness over past cycles. Whether leading protocols or emerging platforms, as long as derivatives trading volume remains active, the fundamentals of related tokens are supported. In contrast, the situation of meme coins has become more nuanced. On the surface, they remain lively, but many projects are actually competing within the same liquidity pool. The so-called rally feels more like transactions forced into existing funds rather than truly opening up new demand. In this environment, aggregated protocols that can continuously generate revenue may outperform individual meme coins because they do not rely on a single gust of luck but instead extract value from all participants. Looking further ahead, the current market feels that a correction is not a bad thing; rather, it is a window to recalibrate positions. But the key point is that this window may not last long, as the overall market atmosphere remains in a bull market atmosphere, and any decent decline can be quickly bought back. Waiting for the perfect low may not be realistic; a more pragmatic approach is to think ahead about what price you are willing to be at in advance$ETH followed the market today to $2,533, up 3% in 24h. This week it climbed from $1,900 to $2,533, a gain of over 30%, outpacing BTC's 20%+ by a wide margin. The most noteworthy aspect is not the price, but the nature of the capital — Grayscale's staked ETH ETF rose 3.56% today, accumulating +31.17% over five days. This is institutions pricing "compliant staking," not retail chasing.
The quality of ETF inflows is improving. Last week, ETH ETF inflows reached $697 million, the best single week since October 2025. The absolute amount is smaller compared to BTC's $1.92 billion, but relative to market cap, ETH's capital inflow strength is twice that of BTC. Fidelity's application to add staking functionality to the ETH ETF is still pending, with up to 100% of holdings staked. Once approved, this will be a game changer from zero to one.
The circulating supply is getting tighter. Over 42 million ETH are locked in staking contracts, exchange reserves continue to decline, and Coinbase Premium remains positive. When prices rise, the available supply shrinks, which is the root of high elasticity. From pure volume and price perspective, the ETH/BTC exchange rate recovery is just beginning.
However, short-term overextension is evident. RSI surged to 87.3, and the rise from $1,950 to $2,300 was mostly on low volume, a thin range that will eventually be retested. $2,545 is this week's high resistance; breaking through opens the psychological $3,000 level. A pullback to $2,300-$2,350 is the high-quality opportunity to add positions. $1 TRILLION NARRATIVE. $4 BILLION REALITY.
Everyone is front-running the Treasury's war chest but the only money actually scheduled is $4 billion in buybacks.
Watch the map. Short liquidity above: gone. The magnet below: $50,000–$56,000.
If the trillion stays a headline, that's where price hunts.
My first bids are laddered at $64,000–$70,000. Let them chase.
$BTC If you are currently out of Bitcoin positions, it can indeed feel quite uncomfortable. The market is going through a typical selection phase: not getting in for fear of further rises; chasing in for fear of another pullback. Currently, there are basically two strategies:
(1) Strategy 1: Wait for a pullback, referencing the on-chain short-term holder cost (STH-RP, currently around 70K). For the bold and those planning to hold long-term, go all in on the dip. For those not in a hurry, take partial positions; if it falls below the STH-RP, keep buying more as it drops, continuously averaging down.
(2) Strategy 2: Wait for trend confirmation. Reference the 365-day moving average (currently about 83K). Historical data shows that when BTC reclaims the 365-day moving average (for example, stabilizing above it for 3 days), it often means the main bear market downtrend has ended, and you can chase the rally directly.
Because the current on-chain data and candlestick charts resemble 2019, if the market follows a similar pattern to 2019, it would be a continuous rally, directly entering a small bull market before any pullback. So Strategy 2 also serves as a Plan B, but you have to overcome your fear of heights.
(This strategy is based on model analysis, for reference only, trade at your own risk) BTC breaks through $80,000, the base narrative is being validated
On August 25, Bitcoin returned to the $80,000 mark for the first time since May 13, reaching an intraday high of $81,270, with a cumulative increase of up to 28% in August so far. This bullish candle did not appear out of thin air—before the breakout, BTC experienced several weeks of sideways trading in the $63,000-$64,000 range, enduring repeated outflows from ETFs, delays in the CLARITY Act, and fluctuations in macro interest rates. The bad news didn’t break it down; the base narrative is being validated.
The direct catalyst for the breakout was a change in the macro environment. The recent disguised quantitative easing measures introduced by the U.S. Treasury caused the dollar exchange rate to weaken, driving funds toward hard assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $337.6 million on August 24, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of net inflows, totaling $2.26 billion over the past six days. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed about $209 million in a single day, accounting for more than 60% of that day’s total inflow.
More important than the single-day inflows is the structural base BTC is forming. Strategic reserve lockups, 401(k) retirement account channels, and continuous corporate treasury accumulation—these long-term funds that “don’t watch the price” are elevating BTC’s bottom from an “emotional bottom” to a “allocation bottom.” The August breakout is another victory for a simple narrative within an institutional framework. BTC doesn’t need much explanation; it just stands there, waiting for the macro winds to knock on the door.BTC breaks through 81,000, ETH stands above 2,500, shorts liquidated 7 billion in one week
$BTC returns to $80,000 after three months, reaching an intraday high of $81,270, currently trading above $80,500. It has risen over 23% in the past week, marking the largest weekly gain in three years.
$ETH also strengthens, standing above the $2,500 mark, with a weekly increase of about 30%. XRP has surged over 50% in one week to around $1.50, surpassing USDC and BNB in market cap to rise to fourth place.
Liquidation data is staggering: In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $681 million liquidated, with $460 million from short positions. Approximately $7.2 billion of leveraged shorts were liquidated in the past week. The whale "SetTenTargets" holds 1,830 BTC short positions (entry price $76,397) with an unrealized loss of $9.86 million.
What’s driving this? The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchase operations triggered a sell-off of the dollar, reigniting "devaluation trades." Spot ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $2.6 billion in one week. However, BTC's 4-hour RSI has reached an overbought level of 77, making chasing longs above 81,000 less cost-effective. Last night, many people were watching the market waiting for oil prices to surge—after all, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just launched a "economic isolation" package against Iran on August 24, covering five areas at once: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, and adding nearly 60 entities/individuals/ships to the list.
So what happened? Brent didn’t rise but fell, closing near $90.37 per barrel, and WTI dropped over 2% to $84.98. The market’s vote with its feet is straightforward: this isn’t a missile launch, just an escalation of sanctions; as long as the Strait of Hormuz isn’t truly blocked and Iranian oil tankers aren’t massively halted, traders won’t pay a premium for "slogan-type hedging."
But what should be watched most in this wave isn’t the one or two candlesticks of oil prices, but that the U.S. has changed its approach.
Previously it was "banning your own oil companies," now it’s tracing through settlement—transshipment—insurance—fiat currency entry points step by step: whoever launders money for Iran, whoever flies a convenient flag to receive goods, which insurer underwrites, and which payment channel handles inflows and outflows could all be dragged into secondary sanctions. This approach doesn’t reflect immediately on the market like warfare; it’s more like slowly tightening a noose—the comprehensive cost of Iran’s oil sales will gradually rise, and only when third-party service providers start to withdraw will export volumes be passively cut, at which point the oil price will be trading on a "real supply shortage," not just news headlines.
A side note on a commonly misunderstood point in the crypto circle: including digital assets in the sanctions again reminds everyone that BTC is not a "safe haven magic coin" hanging in a vacuum. As long as it still goes through CEXs, still touches stablecoins, and still passes fiat channels, every link in the chain can be choked by OFAC. So the simplistic narrative "Middle East chaos → BTC must rise" is too crude—if oil prices are suppressed by sanction expectations, inflation expectations fall, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields don’t spike, the risk asset liquidity environment might actually be looser than during military escalation; conversely, if supply is truly interrupted, oil price surges drive inflation, BTC might not fare well either.
Going forward, just watch three things:
1. Whether Iran’s maritime crude oil exports are really declining month-on-month (look at loading volumes, not just quotes);
2. Whether the Strait of Hormuz’s navigation rate and war risk insurance rates have sudden changes;
3. Whether the U.S. dares to extend sanctions to third-country banks and major commodity traders.
Brent is stuck around 90, indicating that the market assumes "this is still a stress test." When oil prices rise again, that’s the market saying "I believe you really cut off supply"; if it continues to drift down, it’s still economic war expectations running ahead of actual impact.
The same applies from a crypto perspective—where BTC goes next depends not on who talks tougher, but on where the four knobs of the dollar, oil price, U.S. Treasury, and liquidity preference finally turn. The economic war has already started, but the cards haven’t been fully dealt yet.
(The above is just a logic analysis based on public information, not investment advice; leverage with caution.)
$BTC $ETH $CL
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #三星巨额回报遭抛售，市场为何不买账？
Samsung really messed up this time.
Where's the problem? Simply put, the market wanted an atomic bomb, but you pulled out a string of firecrackers.
It's not that the amount isn't large enough; the core detail of "how it's distributed" wasn't handled properly. The plan only mentioned first releasing 30 trillion in cash, but what about the remaining hundreds of billions—will it be repurchased and canceled or just left hanging? That wasn't made clear. Compared to SK Hynix next door, which directly "repurchases and cancels" in a hardcore move, Samsung's approach clearly falls short.
To put it bluntly, the market doesn't care about what you say; it only cares about what you can immediately deliver.
This situation is very familiar in the crypto world. A project is flooded with good news, yet the coin price tanks. The core reason is one: expectation gap. What you give is something the market already anticipated, all vague "to be announced later" promises. In a highly competitive market, the worst is when good news lands and there's no surprise.
Samsung's current predicament is very much like those projects with plenty of money on the books but trying to push both mainnet and ecosystem development, ending up pleasing neither side.
Here's my take.
Samsung's lesson this time is a reminder for all big capital tracks: the art of distributing funds lies not in the total amount but in the certainty of execution and the immediate effect of share reduction. The market wants a commitment of "real cash repurchases regardless of bull or bear market," not an empty IOU that says "maybe rewards."
This matter doesn't directly affect Bitcoin, but the direction is clear—the market is re-pricing the quality of capital allocation, not the quantity.
$BTC Middle East conflict nearing its end
There has been continuous news from the Middle East these past two days. Basent announced a new sanction plan against Iran called the "Exile Plan," which essentially signals a failure in the military conflict. Additionally, the U.S. has redeployed diplomats to the Middle East, indicating an expectation of stability in the situation; finally, Palestine is mediating, and the U.S. has proposed a new plan to lift the blockade of the strait.
These three pieces of news have driven oil prices to plunge. Behind this is the U.S. aiming to address the current U.S. Treasury yields. Among the three paths, inflation and inflation-related factors are included, along with tonight's release of the U.S. consumer confidence index hitting a new low for the year and new home sales reaching a January low.
All of this points to economic weakness, combined with the major nonfarm payrolls turning negative, laying the groundwork for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Tomorrow is the U.S. July PCE report. The current expectation is that the core PCE will remain unchanged at 3.3%. I believe the Fed Chair must ensure that the PCE continues to decline, so it is highly likely to come in below expectations.
This will give the current U.S. Treasury market and the AI tech sector (China-U.S. stocks) a breather, easing pressure on the Fed this Friday. Of course, it will also benefit gold and Bitcoin.
Friday will be the real test and a turning point. If the Fed fails again, gold will break through 4700 and head toward 5000. If the Fed can provide clear guidance and emphasize its determination to raise rates, then U.S. tech stocks will rebound, and gold will pull back.
In any case, be prepared for both scenarios. The current U.S. Treasury issue is at a very critical juncture. I lean toward the view that there will be a "final drop" in U.S. Treasuries before a successful rescue.
Whether this drama unfolds this Friday or at the September rate meeting remains unknown and depends on the maneuvering skills of Basent and the Fed.
Overseas, continue with gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. stocks—betting on both ends. Domestically, a dumbbell allocation of tech and dividend stocks is comfortable and can be both offensive and defensive.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks. Logic remains, the position remains; if logic breaks, decisively exit
Seeing today's topic, I also want to share my real approach.
When a position shows an unrealized loss, my first reaction is not to look at the profit and loss number, but to ask myself three questions:
Is the original logic for opening the position still valid?
Has the market structure been fundamentally broken?
Is the current trend still operating within my expected framework?
If the answers to these three questions are all yes, I choose to continue holding and patiently wait for the market to confirm. The stop-loss line should have been set early—either it gets hit and I accept the loss, or it reaches the take-profit level and I exit—the process in between, I try not to interfere.
But if I find the situation becoming confusing, the trend has deviated beyond what I can understand, or I myself can’t explain why I’m still holding on—then regardless of how much the unrealized loss is, I will choose to exit with a small loss.
Here’s a recent real example.
When I was trading ETH, I judged it to be range-bound, so I placed a short at 1920. Suddenly, a huge bullish candle shot up directly to above 1960. At that moment, I immediately closed the position because such a strong bullish candle basically confirms a true breakout, and the structure has been completely broken. If I had stubbornly held on, hoping it would fall back, the price would have risen to 2500 in the next two days, and liquidation would have been the only outcome. I only lost a little on that trade but preserved my account and all future opportunities.
Losses are something every trader cannot avoid. They are not your enemy but the tuition you pay and the signals you buy. What really matters is not "can I avoid losses," but "are my losses justified."
As long as the logic remains, holding a position is execution; when the logic is gone, holding becomes gambling.
On the trading path, those who survive are not the smartest, but those who best respect the market and their own rules.
May we all protect our accounts and maintain our rhythm. Let’s encourage each other. 🔥
$ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 【Crypto Script】
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
I'm Script Bro. Many people's first reaction to this news is:
"The US sanctions Iran? Won't oil prices soar?"
But the market responded: You're overthinking it 😂
Oil prices didn't rise but fell. The core reason is that the market doesn't just look at the news headline; it also considers whether there is any substantial impact behind it.
Right now, everyone is worried about whether the sanctions can truly affect Iran's crude oil exports. If it's just talk and the supply side doesn't decrease significantly, then oil prices naturally won't rise easily.
Also, oil prices are more realistic; unlike gold, which rises on any hint of turmoil as a safe haven, oil prices depend more on global economic demand.
Currently, the market is watching the September rate cut expectations while also worrying about economic slowdown. If demand is weak, oil prices are easily suppressed.
So now there's an interesting scene:
Gold is surging, oil is lying flat.
One is busy hedging risk, the other is still worried about "no one driving to refuel."
The key variables to watch next are:
First, whether Iran's exports will really be affected.
Second, whether the Fed's September rate cut expectations can continue to heat up.
If the supply side has issues, oil prices may rally again; if economic pressure dominates, oil prices may continue to grind.
What do you think? Is this oil price drop a fake fall, or has the market already priced in weak demand? Let's discuss in the comments 👇$BTC $ETH $CL #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ Good evening everyone!
$BTC BTC
The opportunity cost of holding BTC is giving up the excess returns brought by the explosion of the public chain ecosystem. When market hotspots rotate and altcoins collectively stir, BTC often underperforms, which is its biggest implicit cost. But its advantage is that it almost never faces the risk of going to zero or logical falsification.
Choosing BTC essentially means prioritizing "certainty." Giving up high multiple imagination in exchange for cross-cycle survival ability. In highly uncertain phases, such as unresolved regulations and fluctuating macro data, capital is willing to accept lower potential returns in exchange for a safety cushion. Only when the market is fully confident about the future is capital willing to leave BTC to take risks. It is more like the cash position in the crypto world; to gamble for high returns, you have to switch out of BTC, and to hedge risks, you return to BTC.
$ETH ETH
ETH faces a two-way opportunity cost. Upward, it competes with new-generation public chains like SOL for the valuation of a "new story"; downward, it competes with BTC for "pure safe-haven" capital.
Choosing ETH means bearing the downside of regulation and L2 diversion, while not having the absolute safety of BTC. Capital buying ETH is betting on two things: staking brings continuous returns, and the ecosystem continues to expand. If the stories of RWA and L2 materialize, it can capture growth dividends; if the narrative falls short of expectations, capital will withdraw from both ends—some returning to BTC for safety, some chasing high-elasticity new public chains like SOL. Therefore, ETH often experiences pressure from both sides, a choice that touches both ends but is extreme in neither.
$SOL SOL
The opportunity cost of holding SOL is the extremely high principal drawdown risk. Capital buying SOL actively gives up the safe base position allocated by institutions in exchange for the explosive dividends of new ecosystem narratives.
Choosing SOL means you cannot seek bear market resilience; its pricing almost entirely bets on future increments. When the hype around new public chains and MEME fades, capital will quickly flow to ETH or BTC. It has no safe-haven value, only offensive value. When the market is optimistic, you give up safety for high returns; when the market cools, you bear the cost of rapid liquidity drying up. Buying SOL equals actively giving up defense and going all-in on risk appetite continuing to rise.
Summary of the trade-offs among the three: For safety, accept low elasticity and choose BTC; for growth, accept two-way pressure and choose ETH; for explosion, accept high drawdown and choose SOL. The current market is in a phase of expected rebound, and most capital is still unwilling to completely give up the safety cushion; large-scale migration to high-risk targets has not yet occurred. $BTC shows capital rotation across markets, with crypto and US stocks moving inversely
Today, the traditional stock market and the crypto market exhibited distinctly opposite trends, indicating that existing funds are rotating between different assets.
The S&P 500 closed slightly up by 0.26%, corresponding to an increase of $240 billion in the overall US stock market capitalization.
On the other hand, $BTC fell from its intraday high by 3%, with a market cap evaporation of about $48 billion.
A noteworthy detail in the timeline is that the start of Bitcoin's sell-off coincided exactly with the bottoming and rebound of US stock index futures.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
#TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？ BTC has surged close to 80,000, yet the Strategy that buys BTC the most suddenly sits on cash, a contrast more worth pondering than it continuing to accumulate.
From August 17 to 23, the company sold about 18.26 million shares of $MSTR, raising $2.007 billion USD, but didn’t add a single $BTC, keeping holdings at 840,447 coins.
Funds were first used to repurchase STRC, boosting the USD Reserve to $5.1 billion, and a new $1.59 billion cash pool was established.
The previous playbook was “financing—buying coins—refinancing,” but now it’s clearly shifted gears: first arrange dividends, interest, and liquidity, then decide the next move.
Simply put, it’s not a sudden bearish view on BTC, but 840,000 coins are already heavy enough; the company needs to first install a protective frame on the balance sheet to avoid forced selling if the market turns.
But common shareholders don’t get the safety net for free. Dilution from the issuance caused MSTR to drop more sharply than BTC today; the market is paying for this insurance premium.
What I want to watch most now isn’t Saylor’s next call, but where that $1.59 billion cash goes first: buying BTC would mean reigniting structural buying; buybacks or debt repayment would indicate the Strategy cares more about preserving the financing flywheel.
Not buying this time doesn’t mean a lack of faith, just that the old gambler is finally starting to keep a backup plan.
$SNDK
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 18 hours, $2.74 billion lost, 172,202 people liquidated.
You think this is the end? No.
In the past 18 hours, short positions were forcibly liquidated, leaving a trail of retail casualties. Bitcoin rose 26% in a week, pushing from 62,000 to 81,000.
Is it over? No.
Lookonchain data shows that Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute still hold $603 million in short positions—138,000 ETH shorts and 3,425 BTC shorts.
Retail traders were liquidated at 81,000.
Abraxas Capital’s BTC short liquidation prices are at $128,521 and $140,437, Wintermute’s BTC short liquidation price is at $251,307.
Bitcoin needs to rise another 66% to even scratch them.
Even more ruthless, Wintermute is still adding to positions, losing while adding.
But Abraxas Capital’s trump card is even more extreme—they hold 3,161 BTC spot and 47,600 ETH spot, with short coverage exceeding 28%, and ETH coverage reaching 172%.
You think they are betting on direction?
They are profiting from funding rates.
The shorts aren’t dead; they’re simply not on your battlefield.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $UNITREE Current market value is 400 to 50 billion USD. Honestly, judging by its performance alone, it is not worth the price. In the first half of 2026, Unitree Technology will achieve operating revenue of 1.152 billion yuan and net profit of 274 million yuan. In other words, at Unitree's current profitability rate, it would take hundreds of years to capture its market value. Moreover, according to Wang Xingxing of Unitree Technology at the World Robot Conference, he believes the ChatGPT stage in the robotics sector will take another two to three years, possibly five to ten years. It is expected that the embodied intelligent ChatGPT moment will arrive within 2-3 years at the earliest, but it could also take 5 or even 10 years. Therefore, I believe that at this price, Unitree Technology is not worth going long. As for whether it can be shorted, I personally lean toward shorting. Because right now, neither its own situation nor market sentiment can support its rapid rise. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. You can see that since this contract launched, its open interest has been steadily increasing, while the long-short ratio of contracts keeps declining. This means that a huge amount of capital is currently entering the market to short the market. Many people didn't notice it early on because when Bitcoin launched suddenly surged, it drew all the market's attention. I paid attention to this coin, but at the time, I didn't short it. Why? Because I was also busy shorting mainstream coins at the timeBTC retreated to around $79,100 after reaching $81,266. The current core issue is whether spot funds will maintain the breakout momentum after the short squeeze triggered by the $3 billion short liquidation ends.
The market performance shifted from a one-sided rally to high-volatility oscillation, with concentrated selling pressure appearing above $81,266. In terms of liquidity drivers, the strong liquidation feedback on the derivatives side dominates. The $3 billion short position liquidation accelerated the breakout speed, while spot buying provided bottom support with a net inflow of $1.9 billion in a single week.
The US Treasury's increase in long-term bond repurchases and the weakening dollar improved macro liquidity, but the persistently high long-term US Treasury yields mean valuation expansion lacks sustained interest rate support. Once the liquidation squeeze on the derivatives side subsides, market liquidity must shift from leveraged funds to spot buyers.
The bullish scenario triggers if $BTC reclaims the resistance zone between $79,400 and $80,400, accompanied by spot buying pushing the price above the $81,266 high. A volume breakout above this high would indicate the short squeeze has successfully evolved into a trend driven by real capital; the scenario fails if the breakout is accompanied by a sharp drop in ETF inflows or a significant volume contraction.
The bearish scenario triggers if the price breaks below the key support near the lower Bollinger Band at $78,600. If it continues to lose the $78,000 level, it confirms the $81,266 peak was a short-term bull trap, and previously accumulated profits will trigger a secondary sell-off; this scenario fails if strong spot buying emerges near $78,600 and quickly recovers above $80,000.
After short positions are cleared, a lack of follow-up buying will directly amplify the pressure of a high-level pullback. The quality of support at $78,600 directly determines whether the current high-level turnover can absorb profit-taking.
The most important variables to watch over the next 7 days are whether the US stock spot ETF inflows continue and the state of spot holdings within the $78,600 to $80,000 range.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视BTC surged to 81,000 before quickly pulling back: The most dangerous misjudgment in this rally is mistaking a short squeeze for trend confirmation
BTC's rise over the past week has been very strong, but today's 15-minute chart shows a change worth watching.
The price peaked at $81,266, then quickly retreated, currently hovering around $79,100. From the chart, there is a clear strong selling pressure near 81K for the first time, and the previous one-sided rally is turning into high volatility consolidation.
There is indeed real capital driving this rally.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.9 billion last week, marking one of the strongest weeks this year; meanwhile, the US Treasury increased long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakened, and regulatory expectations improved, all of which enhanced market risk appetite. (Reuters)
But one detail cannot be ignored:
This rally is driven not only by spot buying but also mixed with intense short covering.
About $3 billion worth of short positions were liquidated during this rally. In other words, when BTC suddenly accelerated from a low point, part of the rise was a positive feedback loop of "price increase → short stop-loss → forced buyback → continued rise." (The Wall Street Journal)
This is why I am not overly optimistic around 81K right now.
Because a short squeeze can create speed but cannot guarantee sustainability.
What truly determines whether BTC can upgrade from a "violent rebound" to a "new trend" is whether new spot capital continues to step in after the short squeeze ends.
Back to the 15-minute structure, several levels are very clear now.
The short-term resistance zone has formed between $79,400 and $80,400. BTC needs to firmly hold above 80K and further break today's high of $81,266 to prove that buying power can still expand upward.
On the downside, focus on around $78,600.
This level is near the lower Bollinger Band and is an important support area after this pullback. If 78.6K holds, it can still be understood as normal consolidation after a rise; but if it breaks again, especially losing 78K, then the 81K breakout should be watched carefully for a potential short-term bull trap.
Additionally, a macro variable is approaching.
The market will soon refocus on inflation, long-term US Treasury yields, and monetary policy expectations. Part of BTC's recent rise is due to a weaker dollar and improved liquidity, but long-term rates remain high, so the macro foundation of this rally is not yet fully solid. (The Block)
Therefore, I now prefer to define BTC as:
The trend is attempting to reverse, but the market is still in the "proving itself" phase.
The biggest change in recent days is not how much BTC has risen, but that ETF funds have returned, macro liquidity expectations have improved, and the market is willing to assign higher valuations to risk assets again.
But the real test after 81K is just beginning.
If BTC, after a $3 billion short squeeze, can still hold the $78,600–80,000 zone and break above 81.3K again relying on spot capital, then this rally may truly shift from a "short squeeze" to a "trend rally."
Conversely, if ETF funds start to fade and 80K cannot be sustained, the faster this rally climbs, the more the subsequent profit-taking pressure should be watched.
The market now needs to answer not:
Can BTC still rise?
But rather—
After most shorts have been cleared, who will take the next baton? $BTC This time, SanDisk's move is not just a simple oversold rebound; institutional funds are repricing NAND.
SNDK quickly pulled back from intraday lows today, currently priced around $1511.85, up 1.55% on the day. From the 15-minute chart, it once sharply dropped from around 1566 to the 1480 level but did not continue to fall uncontrollably and then showed clear support.
Technically, the price has now reclaimed the MA5 and MA10 areas, and the KDJ indicator is turning up from a low point. However, the $1530–$1537 range remains the first short-term resistance. To truly strengthen again, this zone must be reclaimed first. Above that is the previous high region of $1560–$1567.
But what I’m more focused on is not just these few candlesticks.
Recent disclosures show that Jane Street’s holdings in SanDisk have grown large enough to require a separate 13G filing. SEC documents indicate that as of the disclosure trigger date, it held about 7.409 million shares with shared voting rights in Sandisk. (Securities and Exchange Commission)
The real point to consider here is:
Why would large institutional funds continue to hold heavy positions after such dramatic volatility in the storage industry?
Because the market’s trade might no longer be the traditional "NAND cycle rebound," but AI is changing the entire demand structure of the storage industry.
On August 13, Sandisk’s Investor Day clearly presented a new long-term growth model, while continuing to emphasize storage demand driven by AI and data-intensive applications; the day before, the company and Kioxia announced a new generation of QLC 3D Flash technology aimed at AI and high-data-volume scenarios. (Sandisk Corporation)
The biggest weakness of NAND in the past was its cyclicality:
Supply expansion → price drop → manufacturers cut production → price recovery → then expand production again.
But in the AI era, a variable is changing.
Previously, the market mainly focused on shipments of PCs, phones, and consumer electronics. Now, more and more new demand comes from data centers, AI training, inference, and massive cold data storage.
In other words:
GPUs handle computation, HBM feeds data at high speed, and NAND stores the ever-growing data assets.
If AI ultimately brings not just a server procurement cycle but a multi-year explosion in data production, then NAND’s long-term demand center could be raised overall.
That’s why I don’t simply interpret Jane Street’s holdings as "a big institution being bullish."
Institutional holdings alone don’t guarantee stock price rises, and both 13F and 13G filings have disclosure delays. Jane Street itself is a market maker and complex strategy institution, so not all holdings can be directly equated with directional bullishness.
But at least it shows one thing:
Large funds are putting Sandisk back into the core trading pool.
Back to the chart, I’m currently focusing on three levels.
Around 1490 below is the first layer of short-term defense; if it breaks again, it may retest the 1466 level. On the upside, watch $1537 first; if it breaks out with volume, then look at the previous high of $1567.
So the most critical thing for SNDK now is not "it rose 1.55% today."
It’s:
Whether the dip near 1480 this time is just a short-term bottom-fishing by funds or the start of a new round of institutional repricing.
If AI ultimately not only reshapes GPUs and HBM but also begins to reshape NAND’s long-term demand curve, then the next real discussion for storage stocks might no longer be "when the cycle peaks," but—
Whether the profit center of this cycle is already completely different from the past? $SNDK This rebound is increasingly less like an ordinary emotional recovery. BTC is approaching $80,000, and many people's first reaction is "the bears have been squeezed out." That's certainly true, but just talking about squeezing doesn't explain the strength of this rally. A deeper change is that funds are beginning to retranslate US fiscal, debt, and liquidity arrangements into Bitcoin narratives. US debt buybacks, dollar pressure, fiscal deficits, and spot ETFs continue to flow in, pulling BTC back from a highly volatile speculative asset to the position of a "macro hedge asset." #BTC breaks $80,000—can it hold a new level? This is why Strategy's latest moves are worth a closer look. The company raised over $2 billion this time but did not immediately continue buying coins; instead, it first supplemented the dollar pool and capital structure. This shows that even the most aggressive corporate holders are acknowledging a reality: the market has returned, but capital management is more important than chasing prices. For the market, this isn't negative news; rather, it seems like a sign of maturity. Hot money is rushing, veteran players are managing the table. On the other side, Ethereum's institutionalization is also accelerating. BitMine pushed ETH holdings close to 5% of total supply, and a large amount of assets are already staked. ETH is no longer just a "public chain token"; it increasingly feels like a means of production that can be packaged by listed companies, increased yields, and embedded in balance sheets. This change is more important than short-term price fluctuations. Another signal that cannot be ignored comes from Washington. Stand With Crypto endorses 32 opinionsMicron rebounded from a sharp drop, but what’s really worth watching isn’t this bullish candle, it’s that the “AI memory wall” is becoming more severe.
MU quickly bounced today from around $894 to $933, even touching $947 intraday. On the 15-minute chart, the price has reclaimed MA5, MA10, and MA20, and KDJ is recovering from a low, indicating short-term funds are flowing back after yesterday’s plunge.
However, I believe what’s more important behind this rebound isn’t the technical indicators, but a recent industry signal Micron has released:
AI computing power growth is clearly outpacing memory bandwidth growth.
At Hot Chips 2026, Micron pointed out that AI compute performance roughly triples every two years, while HBM bandwidth increases by less than double, meaning the “Memory Wall” could actually worsen. Even more notably, about 17.2% of unexpected interruptions during Meta’s large-scale Llama 3 training were related to HBM3. (BigGo Finance)
This implies future AI competition may no longer be just about “who has more GPUs.”
As GPU compute power continues to grow exponentially, memory bandwidth, capacity, cooling, packaging, and HBM yield could all become bottlenecks limiting the efficiency of entire AI clusters.
This precisely strengthens Micron’s long-term thesis.
HBM consumes more wafer area compared to traditional DDR5; Micron disclosed that currently, the same capacity requires about 3 times the wafer area. As HBM stacking and bandwidth continue to improve, this “wafer penalty” is even expanding. In other words, every additional portion of HBM capacity consumed by AI servers more noticeably squeezes traditional DRAM supply. (Tom’s Hardware)
So the current memory cycle is no longer purely driven by PC and smartphone demand as in the past.
AI is simultaneously creating two things: higher demand for high-end memory and tighter effective wafer supply.
Micron has even announced plans to invest $10 billion over the next decade to build Micron Research Labs to study next-generation memory, advanced packaging, and compute architectures, indicating the company is betting on the path where “memory evolves from a supporting role to a core bottleneck in AI infrastructure.” (Micron Investor Relations)
Back to the market.
The $936–$947 range remains the first resistance zone, especially near $947, which is today’s high. If volume expands and price breaks through and holds above this level, I would interpret this move as a recovery after a panic washout near $894; but if it encounters resistance again near $940, then this can still only be defined as a technical rebound after a sharp drop.
On the downside, I’m focusing on around $925 and $919. If it falls below $919 again, it means buying support is still insufficient.
So my current view on MU is:
The short-term reversal is not fully confirmed yet, but the long-term logic is becoming clearer—the real scarcity in the AI era may not just be compute power, but the memory that “feeds” that compute power.
If GPUs get stronger but HBM bandwidth, cooling, and capacity can’t keep up, will the market eventually realize that the AI supply chain’s true sustainable pricing power lies in storage? $MU Bitcoin has once again stepped onto the stage of breaking through $80,000, marking its second attempt in recent years. There's an old saying in the market: 'You don't have to do it three times; the third time often reveals the real deal.' So right now, everyone's biggest concern is whether this crucial leap can actually happen. Looking at the current market structure, the probability of success this time is indeed more promising than the previous two times. A clear signal is that the strength of each pullback after each rally is decreasing. The first attempt was severely suppressed by the price, and although the second attempt failed to hold steady, it remained volatile at a high level. This change indicates that the selling pressure near $80,000 is gradually being digested, fewer people are willing to sell at this level, and the stability of the chip is improving. At the same time, the recovery in capital conditions has also provided confidence for this round of offensives. Bitcoin's rapid surge from over $60,000 to nearly $80,000 was accompanied by a large number of short positions being liquidated and continued inflows of ETF funds. Compared to a few months ago, the overall liquidity environment has clearly improved, and institutional funds have become more proactive. This kind of financial support is often more convincing than a purely technical pattern. Market sentiment is quietly shifting. Previously, everyone was worried about whether it would fall below 60,000, but now the focus of discussion has shifted to when it will break 80,000. In a bull market atmosphere, the most typical trend is often not an immediate breakout, but rather a sudden direction after repeated high-level fluctuations and accumulation. This psychological shift itself is a sign that the market is maturing. However, the more he was at such a threshold,@小二哥哥68 What truly remained in this event was not a coherent market judgment, but a scene where positions, sentiment, and execution discipline all lost control. The whole event revolved around a long Ethereum position: he originally saw $BTC breaking through 80,000 in the morning session and briefly standing near 80,000 as a signal of rising risk appetite, so he took a long position around $ETH around 2500–2523; But after the price didn't rally as expected, the live stream quickly shifted from market analysis to anxiety about losses, increasing positions, and liquidation lines.
According to his own account during the livestream, this ETH position was traded around 2508, 2518, and 2523 in succession. He had previously considered using 2460 as a short-term stop-loss reference, but later repeatedly expressed unwillingness to execute stop-losses and not want to exit at a loss. He said he was still bullish, but on the other hand, admitted he was actually more bearish and was already stuck; There was a clear disconnect between direction judgment and holding behavior. Later, he repeatedly discussed topics like cross-positioning, margin addition, 150x leverage, and the liquidation line around 2418, no longer a trading plan based on unified conditions.
This is the most important risk boundary to be kept in this match: opening long positions above 2500, risk levels near 2460, and liquidation pressure near 2418 are all personal position information mentioned by streamers during highly volatile emotions, not verifiable buy or sell advice, and certainly not as points to follow. Especially when he himself has already said things like "No stop-loss set anymore," "Add more and you're finished," "This is pure gambling," these words precisely reveal the original meaningBitcoin
Historically, when $BTC first touched the Monthly Tenkan 🔴, the cycle bottom was already in.
Whether price reclaimed it immediately or not didn’t change that.
We are now at the first touch again.Today $BTC directly broke through $81,270, standing above this round number for the first time since May. At the time of writing, it is $80,970, up 4.59% in 24h. In 24 hours, 94,000 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $635 million, mostly shorts getting liquidated.
The capital flow is really strong. GSR weekly report: BTC+ETH spot ETFs last week saw a net inflow flip from -$400 million the previous week to +$2.5 billion, the highest single week this year. Among them, BTC ETFs took $192 million, ETH ETFs $697 million. This means this rally is backed by fresh money, not just leverage-driven hype.
But leverage has also piled up. RSI surged to 90.2, BTC broke above the upper band, and Glassnode shows 85% of altcoin funding rates are above historical averages — the market is already filled with a "perpetual bull" sentiment. Short-term holders are massively profitable, exchange balances started to flow back this week, indicating early entrants are gradually selling. The most likely scenario at this stage is not a top, but a single-day large red candle washing out some weak longs, then continuing to slowly rise.
Tonight is the US House of Representatives CLARITY Act voting; Wednesday 8/27 NVDA earnings (options implied ±5.4%); Friday 8/29 PCE; next Wednesday 9/3 ISM manufacturing; 9/9 US Treasury next QE operation. Four events impacting within three weeks, betting on a single direction is a gamble. # Core Reasons for BTC and ETH's Recent Rise (August 2026) > > Risk Warning: China prohibits cryptocurrency trading. The following is only an objective analysis of market logic and **does not constitute any investment advice**. This round of rally is driven by multiple favorable factors resonating with **macro liquidity + improved US regulatory expectations + institutional funds + short squeezing**, with ETH's gains outperforming BTC Securities Star. ## 1. Macro Liquidity (the Core Trigger) The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury bond repurchase plans, raising the maximum limit per operation from $2 billion to $4 billion starting in September, to stabilize the bond market, according to Sina Finance. - Directly pushing down 10-30 year U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the US dollar index; - Risk-free yields are declining, funds are flowing out of US Treasuries toward high-risk assets like BTC, and gold and crypto have strengthened simultaneously. > > The previous continuous rise in long-term bond yields is the biggest macroeconomic shackle suppressing the crypto market; loosening these shackles directly opens up room for gains. ## 2. Significant improvement in U.S. regulatory expectations (Sentiment Catalyst) Multiple positive news items materialized on August 18-19: 1. The SEC released a draft new crypto asset regulation, setting up a **safe harbor mechanism**: after project development is completed, tokens can "graduate" and are no longer classified as securities, providing a clear compliance path to reduce the risk of industry lawsuits and delisting (the draft has not yet been legislated, and market trading is based on expectations), according to Sina Finance. 2. The White House convened encrypted meetingsTRUMP at $2.3, do you dare to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: positive news bombardment, but the price weakens independently.
A one-week surge of 75-80%, from 1.36 to 3.6, with tens of millions of dollars in short positions liquidated in a single day. Then the team sells off + takes profits, and the price falls from 3.6 to 2.3, a 36% drop. BTC is rising, ETH is rising, only TRUMP is falling.
Daily chart shows a pullback from a high, RSI cooling down from overbought, volume still active. The hype remains, but some are quietly exiting.
First thing: the team is selling, you might be kept in the dark.
Lookonchain monitored: the Trump-related team operated through Solana liquidity pools, netting $3.39 million USDC in 10 hours, while a large amount of tokens were transferred to exchanges. Similar transfers/unlocks happened before.
Total supply is 1 billion tokens, circulating only 251 million (25%), the remaining 75% unlocks over 3 years, the team holds a massive amount of chips.
You buy in at 2.3 thinking "a 36% drop is cheap enough." But what is the team's cost? Nearly zero.
Second thing: Eric Trump personally denied rumors, but the market selectively ignores.
In mid to late August, the White House crypto summit + Trump's pro-crypto statements, combined with rumors of "new coin issuance soon," pushed a 75% surge in a week. Then Eric Trump came out saying: "It's absolutely a scam."
Market reaction? Ignored. The price kept rising. The hype is all about the name "Trump."
This coin has no fundamentals, no utility, no revenue, just a person's name. ATH was $75, current price $2.3, a 96%+ retracement. Every surge is because Trump said something good, every crash is because the team is selling.
Third thing: a technical warning signal has appeared.
From 1.36 to 3.6, up 164%. Retraced to 2.3, just over 60% of the rise—this is a classic "Fibonacci 618 support level."
If it holds 2.2 and BTC stays above 80,000, it may retest 3.0-3.5. If it breaks below 2.0, next stop is 1.7.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself.
On one side:
BTC above 80,000, overall crypto bullish
White House crypto summit + ongoing Trump hype
Midterm elections approaching, political memes have narrative premium
Rebound from 1.36 to 3.6, trend turned bullish
On the other side:
Team earned $3.39 million in 10 hours, wallet still holds massive chips
75% locked, selling pressure could come anytime
Eric denied new coin rumors, hype cooling down
ATH 75 → current 2.3, 96% of holders underwater
Resistance above: 2.50 → 2.80 → 3.00 → 3.50-3.6
Support below: 2.20-2.25 → 2.00 → 1.70-1.8
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If 2.20-2.25 stabilizes + volume increases with bullish candle, lightly go long targeting 2.50-2.80, stop loss at 2.10. If it breaks 2.20 with volume, lightly short targeting 2.00-1.80, stop loss at 2.35.
Swing traders:
Wait for a pullback to 2.0-2.2 to enter, target 3.0-3.5, stop loss below previous low.
Risk control:
Position ≤ 1-3% of total funds, this is not BTC
Always set stop loss, meme coins can halve anytime
Watch: team wallet movements, Trump X statements, whether BTC can hold 80,000
Midterm elections approaching, political black swan risk rising
TRUMP coin, simply put—
When Trump is on stage, it can rise; when the team sells, it must fall. You profit from hype, lose by holding the bag.
At 2.3, do you dare to bet?
TRUMP coin
Do you think it can return to 3.5 before the midterm elections?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #宇树上市后连续回落，估值如何定价？
The leader has something to say
Yushi Technology opened at 1100 yuan on the first day, rising 629%, with a market value once reaching 444.9 billion. On August 24th, it closed at 603 yuan, down about 45% from the opening high, but still up 300% from the issue price of 150.8 yuan.
Revenue was 1.152 billion, net profit 274 million, and performance is indeed growing. But a market value of over 240 billion corresponds to 1.152 billion in revenue, with a PS exceeding 200 times. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter dropped 48% year-on-year, so the full-year profit level still needs to be observed.
There are two drivers behind the surge on the first day. Being the first humanoid robot stock, the track is scarce, and the market is willing to pay a premium. But the circulation ratio was extremely low at the beginning of the listing, with no price limits, so the liquidity premium was amplified to the extreme, essentially making it mostly a chip game.
The continuous decline is within expectations. The market is starting to shift focus from the robot concept to commercialization progress, order growth, and profitability. After the premium brought by the low circulating shares fades, what remains is the real fundamental valuation. The intraday low of 588 yuan is already close to four times the issue price; whether it can hold depends on orders and delivery data.
The impact on the market is relatively indirect. A super IPO in the A-share market temporarily siphoned off some funds. But Yushi's continuous decline indicates cooling sentiment, and the overflow funds may instead flow back to the crypto market. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin is fluctuating around 80,000, all long positions have been exited waiting for a pullback. Nvidia's earnings report, PCE, and Powell's speech are concentrated midweek, so no heavy bets on direction. SPCX base positions continue, adjustments in storage and others will be made later.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.Many people overlook a reality: after the same round of rally ends, the shakeout logic of BTC and ETH is completely different.
$BTC has a large amount of chips in a long-term dormant state. After a big surge, major holders tend to hold and wait rather than sell off massively. The pullback mainly comes from liquidation shocks of contract leverage, making the downward rhythm relatively mild. ETH's chip liquidity is much higher. After a significant rally, swing profit-taking and unlocked staked floating chips will concentrate on fleeing. Even if the overall market does not show obvious weakness, $ETH will still experience an independent retracement.
This is the tormenting part of the high-level phase: the overall market looks relatively stable, but the ETH retracement on hand exceeds expectations. Do not simply use BTC's resistance to decline to predict ETH's support strength. In a high-level oscillation market, ETH's support will be more fragile. When trading with leverage, position size and stop-loss standards must be treated differently for the two coins; one set of parameters cannot be universally applied.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ ？ #贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 When $SNDK pulled back to 1549.2, I immediately checked the on-chain position distribution. At that time, the top whale addresses started unloading and transferring out, but the number of retail addresses was still increasing—a typical shift of chips from strong hands to weak hands.
The price hit a new high, but the holding structure was deteriorating. On the day of confirming the transfer out, I went 50x short. Now at 1509.42, with an unrealized profit of 128.38%. I set a stop loss to lock in costs and let the remaining position run profits. If you missed it, next time when whales unload, I'll be earlier to act. $BTC $ETH $SUI Today's Trend Analysis: The "Long-Short Meat Grinder" at $0.81, Directional Choice Below the 84-Cent Ceiling
On August 25, SUI traded with extremely low volume near $0.81, moving sideways. At the time of writing, it is around $0.81, with a 24-hour increase of only 0.32%. The intraday low touched $0.79 before finding support and rebounding. Market capitalization is approximately $3.27 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $775 million.
The recent rise is closely linked to the overall market recovery. Bitcoin's return above $80,000 has created a bullish environment for altcoins. SUI has gained over 22% in the past week, outperforming the overall crypto market's roughly 10% increase. However, today's market is almost "still"—the MACD histogram has returned to zero, indicating not healthy consolidation but a "market holding its breath": buyers have exhausted momentum from the previous rally but have not yet committed to the next push.
Technically, a "falling wedge" pattern is forming. Analysts note that on the 4-hour chart, SUI has formed a potential bullish falling wedge, with buyers repeatedly defending the $0.81 support zone. A valid breakout above the $0.83–$0.84 resistance could target $0.87 on the upside. However, resistance above is unusually dense: $0.84 coincides exactly with the upper Bollinger Band, and $0.86 aligns with the 200-day moving average—this is the institutional dividing line between bull and bear markets. SUI currently trades below this line, meaning from a macro perspective it remains in a "rebound mode" rather than a "bull market chart." On the downside, $0.79 (7-day moving average) is the intraday dynamic support, $0.78 is a more critical recent defense line, with deeper support at $0.76 and $0.72 (overlapping 20-day and 50-day moving averages).
Signals from the derivatives market are cautionary. Nearly 75% of top traders hold long positions, with retail investors at 71%—this is not "conviction" but a "consensus bet," which in leveraged crypto markets often gets punished before rewards are realized. More importantly, the buy-to-sell order ratio is only 0.71, meaning aggressive sellers are offloading nearly twice the volume of buyers—someone is quietly "distributing chips to the long wall." Open interest has slightly increased by 0.67%, and new capital still chooses to go long. This combination of "extremely bullish positioning, net order outflow, and zero momentum" is a textbook precursor to a long squeeze.
Fundamentals show both positives and concerns. Today, tZERO announced a strategic partnership with the Sui blockchain, directly integrating the Sui network to support issuance, custody, trading, and settlement of regulated digital asset securities. Sui network's daily transaction volume surpassed 8.5 million, a three-month high. Additionally, Sui launched Squid Mode, allowing AI agents to use wallets without surrendering private keys. However, Phantom wallet announced it will stop supporting the Sui network on September 24, and stablecoin supply has dropped from a peak of $1.6 billion in May 2025 to about $478 million, signaling capital outflow worth monitoring.
Risk Warning: SUI is currently in a "compressed spring" state—average daily true range is about $0.06, meaning it can swing from $0.81 to $0.87 or $0.75 in a single day. Whether $0.84 can be effectively broken will determine the short-term direction—if volume surges and healthy capital inflows accompany a breakout above $0.84, $0.87 and even $0.95 are possible; if it is rejected near 84 cents and falls back, losing $0.79 could open deeper correction space. Investors are advised to strictly control position sizes, avoid chasing with high leverage, and closely monitor the battle between $0.84 resistance and $0.78 support.$PEPE meme pumped to 0.000004072, my first reaction was to check on-chain data. At that time, the number of non-zero balance addresses started to turn down, indicating retail investors were exiting at the top, and the number of holders was shrinking.
The price was still at the peak but user count was declining, a typical distribution end phase. After confirming the turn, I entered a 50x short position, now at 0.000003959, with an unrealized profit of 138.75%. Stop loss locked in the cost, letting the remaining profit run.
For friends who missed it, next time when the number of holding addresses turns, I will give an early alert. $BTC $ETH Oil prices continue to weaken, entering a low-level consolidation after a sharp drop
International crude oil has not completed a trend reversal, overall maintaining a downward trend and fluctuating in a low range. On August 24, Brent and WTI crude oil both fell about 2.4%, with Brent closing at $92.17 per barrel and WTI at $85.01 per barrel; although there was a slight rebound during trading on August 25, the market's reaction to the new round of US sanctions on Iran was muted, with no significant safe-haven buying inflow.
The core logic has three points:
First, the market judges that the actual implementation strength of this round of Iran sanctions is limited, and it is difficult to cause a substantial contraction in global crude oil supply in the short term, cooling expectations of supply disruption.
Second, oil prices had risen for six consecutive trading days previously, accumulating a considerable gain, leading to concentrated profit-taking on August 24, with bulls actively reducing positions.
Third, the market anticipates that the US approach will mainly be economic pressure without escalating military conflict for now, and the geopolitical premium on shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz continues to fade.
However, there is a bottom-line support for the downside: the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation. If Iran takes countermeasures to disrupt passage through the channel, oil prices will quickly reprice geopolitical risks and rebound. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #US launches economic isolation against Iran, why did oil prices fall? US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a "economic isolation" move, expanding sanctions to five major areas: aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, with nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels blacklisted. After the news landed, the market showed a divergent trend: WTI and Brent both fell more than 2%, Brent closed at $92.17, and further dropped below $89 intraday today; meanwhile, COMEX gold rose above $4700, hitting a three-month high, and $BTC broke through the 80,000 mark in one go.
The geopolitical tension caused oil prices to fall, explained by three layers of logic: First, buy the rumor, sell the fact. Brent had risen over 12% in the past two weeks, with traders already pricing in the US's geopolitical premium on Iran. When the boot actually dropped, the first reaction of funds was to take profits, not chase higher.
Second, sanctions do not equal supply cut. This is financial and economic isolation, not a military strike, nor a direct blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's crude oil exports have not been physically cut off in the short term, so there is no substantial impact on the supply side. Moreover, OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months since Q2, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have ample spare capacity, and any gap can be filled at any time, so the market is not panicking.
Third, Iran is signaling easing. President Ebrahim Raisi stated the desire to rationally get out of the "neither war nor peace" state. Translated, this means no real desire for war, directly discounting expectations of conflict escalation.
In short: the strait remains open, sanctions are just talk; if it were truly closed, prices would be dirt cheap now, but that's another story. $BTC Post-Rebound Major Chip Reshuffle: BTC vs ETH, Which Has a Healthier Position Structure?
After the violent rebound in the crypto market in August, it entered a high-level consolidation phase. BTC has been tugging between $75,000 and $79,000 repeatedly, while ETH fluctuates widely between $2,380 and $2,580. On the surface, this looks like a technical consolidation after a rise, but essentially it is a profound reshuffle of chips — funds with different attributes are redistributing, rotating, and settling between the two leading coins. Although both are in consolidation, the chip reshuffle logic of BTC and ETH is completely different, and the health of their position structures varies greatly, directly determining the stability and explosive potential of subsequent market trends.
BTC’s chip reshuffle follows a route of institutionalization of existing chips, showing healthy characteristics of "circulation contraction, cost elevation, and position concentration." The core change during this rebound is not how much the price has risen, but that chips are undergoing a large-scale transfer from short-term investors to long-term institutions. On the capital side, the US spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $1.92 billion, hitting a nearly 10-month high. Leading institutions like BlackRock have used real capital to absorb the selling pressure from continuous redemptions of Grayscale GBTC, concentrating the stock chips of old-generation institutional products into new-generation leading institutions. On-chain data confirms this: in the past two weeks, the net outflow of BTC from all exchanges exceeded 13,000 coins, with whales and institutions continuously moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking. The proportion of active chips in circulation continues to decline, and the share controlled by long-term holders has reached a new high since December 2023.
This reshuffle directly solidifies the bottom support of the market. The $75,000 level is the core cost zone for institutional accumulation this round; every time the price dips to this level, there is quick support that lifts it back up, forming an unbreakable short-term support. The stagnation above the $80,000 mark essentially reflects the concentrated unlocking of trapped positions formed between $78,000 and $82,000 by the end of 2025. Retail chips are rotating at high levels to institutional funds, steadily raising the market’s average holding cost. This one-in-one-out process saw no panic selling or leveraged liquidations, representing a typical healthy mid-uptrend rotation.
ETH’s chip reshuffle shows a layered characteristic of a solidified base and an active upper layer, overall a differentiated pattern of "solid bottom support and intense upper-layer competition." The stability of the base chips is even stronger than BTC’s: as of late August, the total staked amount on Ethereum reached 41.89 million coins, accounting for 34.7% of total supply, a new historical high. More than one-third of circulating chips are locked long-term in staking contracts, almost not participating in secondary market trading, effectively sealing off deep downside from the supply side. This is the fundamental reason why ETH can recover every time it pulls back to key levels.
However, the chip structure on the upper trading side is far less healthy than BTC’s. On one hand, institutional ETF holdings are clearly insufficient: last week, spot ETH ETF net inflows were $697 million, only about one-third of BTC’s, and highly concentrated in a single BlackRock product, lacking industry-wide systematic accumulation support. The depth and breadth of institutional base holdings are far inferior to BTC’s. On the other hand, the proportion of short-term trading chips is too high: during this rebound, ETH perpetual contract positions fluctuated over 12% in a single day, funding rates once surged to a high of 0.08%, with a large amount of short-term speculative and leveraged funds gathering in derivatives markets. The ETH balance on spot exchanges also showed a slight rebound. This results in ETH’s characteristic of "a bottom that can’t be easily broken but a top that rises quickly," with the base staking supporting the price floor and upper sentiment funds amplifying volatility, making chip stability weaker than BTC’s.
In the short term, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting at the end of the month will accelerate this chip reshuffle. Under the baseline scenario, the Fed maintains a neutral stance, BTC will continue to complete rotation amid consolidation, further optimizing its position structure; ETH will continue layered competition with wide fluctuations. In an optimistic scenario, dovish policies push the market upward, BTC breaking through $80,000 will trigger new trapped position rotations, while ETH may rapidly surge on sentiment but with increasing chip looseness. In a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance triggers a pullback; BTC has institutional base support limiting the decline, while ETH may face concentrated liquidations of upper-layer leveraged positions, causing significantly larger volatility.
Overall, BTC’s chip reshuffle is a healthy optimization across the entire chain, with increased institutional holding ratios, reduced circulating chips, and elevated average costs, making the market more stable and suitable for mid-term allocation strategies. ETH’s reshuffle is a differentiated layered pattern, solid at the base but volatile at the top, with high elasticity but also high volatility, better suited for swing trading strategies. Operationally, BTC can be held as a base position, with phased accumulation near $75,000 on dips; ETH should be taken profit on rallies and bought on dips with strict position and leverage control, seizing timing differences in the chip reshuffle process. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 With the midterm elections approaching, VIX futures have already started pricing in — 17.4 for September, 19 for October, 19.7 for November; volatility is rising, and the market is preparing for the outcome.
My judgment is:
If Trump wins, $BTC and $ETH can hold in the short term and have a bottom in the long term. He will likely promote crypto heavily — capital gains tax adjusted for inflation, signing executive orders to push BTC reserves; these messages are enough to trigger a market pulse.
Coinbase's policy chief also said the Trump administration is "more likely" to pass crypto-supportive legislation. At least he won’t actively suppress it, which gives the industry some breathing room. Even if policy implementation is slow, it’s good that things won’t worsen in the short term.
If Trump loses, the Democrats will continue to crack down on crypto; $BTC and $ETH will suffer short-term pain, but it might not be a bad thing. Increased regulation will push prices down for a while, and bills will continue to be stalled.
But from another perspective — if crypto isn’t big enough, they won’t bother fighting it. Continuous pressure will only force the industry to accelerate compliance, which in the long run will attract more institutional capital.
Whether it hurts in the short term depends on who wins, but crypto won’t die.
80% of midterm election years have higher volatility than the previous year. I haven’t changed my position and will wait for the shoe to drop before acting. The bias is bullish, but I’m not betting on the short term. Abolish the four-year halving? Veteran privacy coin Zcash sparks a monetary policy revolution
As a loyal follower of the Nakamoto halving model, the veteran privacy coin Zcash officially launched a disruptive network-wide referendum on August 25.
The core issue of this referendum is whether to completely abolish the traditional four-year stepwise halving mechanism and instead adopt a smooth, slowly decaying linear inflation curve. Meanwhile, the community is also discussing major monetary policy adjustments such as shortening block times and returning part of the transaction fees back to the funding pool.
Why does Zcash want to overhaul the halving rule that has been in place for ten years? The core pain point lies in the severe backlash of the stepwise halving on network security. After every hard halving in history, miners' block rewards were instantly cut in half. If the coin price did not double accordingly, many miners would be forced to shut down due to unprofitable operations, triggering a network-wide hash rate crash and increasing the risk of 51% attacks.
The logic behind the smooth decay curve is to spread the cliff-like supply contraction evenly across each block, while locking in the ultimate hard cap of tokens, providing miners with a more predictable long-term revenue expectation and completely smoothing out the large fluctuations in hash rate cycles.
Combined with recent regulatory expectations as Grayscale applies for a spot ETF conversion, this governance referendum not only helps ZEC shed the stereotype of a zombie old coin but also sparks a broad industry discussion on the feasibility of PoW public chain economic models in the post-halving era.
Do you support the public chain continuing to adhere to the four-year hard halving, or shifting to a smooth decay curve? A CLEAR LIQUIDITY ROTATION IS PLAYING OUT BETWEEN CRYPTO AND US STOCKS TODAY.
The S&P 500 is up 0.26%, adding $240 billion to US stocks.
$BTC Bitcoin is down 3% from its day high, wiping out roughly $48 billion from its market cap.
$BTC Bitcoin started dumping at almost the exact moment US stock futures bottomed and reversed higher.$SNDK opened with a plunge; is technology really dead?
Many people don't understand. Clearly, the US-Iran conflict is easing, crude oil is falling, US bonds are dropping, so logically it should be good for storage and technology. Why then is SanDisk still falling? Why is technology still plunging? Is technology really dead?
First, we need to understand why SanDisk is still so weak by analyzing a few points.
First, although the overall market environment is recovering and indeed somewhat favorable to technology and SanDisk, SanDisk's previous gains were too high, so profit-taking by investors is normal.
Second, the market is waiting for a financial report, that of Nvidia. It can be said that Nvidia's earnings report is the key to whether AI can continue. If it exceeds expectations, storage will continue to go crazy. Nvidia is the switch that determines the continuation of this AI wave.
Third, Apple is seeking deeper cooperation with Chinese storage companies, which is also a key factor affecting SanDisk's market share.
Although the overall market environment is recovering, geopolitical conflicts are not yet resolved, and the market is watching what kind of answer Nvidia can deliver. After all, prices have been falling continuously, so be prepared for a potential sharp pullback.
Putting these aside, SanDisk is currently struggling to break through the 1580 resistance level, but I personally remain optimistic. After all, Hynix is still very strong. I think this wave looks more like a shakeout before good news, making room for gains and a better upward breakout. #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ BTC and ETH may rally together, but their shakeout behavior can be completely different. $BTC has a huge amount of long-term dormant supply. After a strong rally, many major holders tend to keep holding rather than aggressively sell. As a result, BTC pullbacks are often driven more by leveraged liquidations, making the decline relatively controlled. $ETH is different. Its supply has much higher active liquidity. After a major move, swing traders taking profits and previously locked/staked supply$SOXL Today's Trend Analysis: The Semiconductor Roller Coaster of a Triple-Leveraged Crash and Rebound from $302 to $106
On August 25, the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF Direxion (SOXL) experienced severe volatility. During regular trading hours, it plunged 7.83%, closing at $111.16; intraday it hit a low of $106.00. However, it rebounded 2.85% in the subsequent after-hours trading to $114.33. As of today's close, SOXL has retraced over 60% from its previous high of $302.
The direct trigger for this round of sharp decline was a systemic sell-off in the semiconductor sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.7% on Monday, with the memory chip sector collectively plunging—SanDisk dropped over 6%, Micron Technology fell 5.83%. The plunge of SOXL's largest holding, Micron Technology, directly dragged down the ETF's performance. The core negative news was that the Trump administration might allow Apple to source Chinese DRAM and NAND flash chips for some product lines, sparking market fears of U.S. semiconductor market share being replaced. Meanwhile, ahead of Nvidia's earnings report (to be released August 26), market risk aversion increased, accelerating capital withdrawal from high-volatility leveraged products.
However, the other side of the crash was a frenzy of capital inflows. From August 17 to 24, South Korean retail investors net bought $712.91 million of SOXL, ranking first among all U.S. stock ETFs. Over the past month (July 22 to August 21), South Korean investors net bought $598 million of SOXL. This "buying the dip" behavior by retail investors sharply contrasts with institutional fund withdrawals.
Technically, extremely weak signals are present. SOXL hit a low of $106 today—exactly the bottom area tested multiple times since July. The MACD is extremely bearish, and $116.68 has become a strong resistance. Key levels: the first resistance above is in the $113–$116 range—if the after-hours rebound can effectively break through and hold, a short-term recovery above $120 is possible; but if it is resisted and falls back near $116, downside risk remains. The $106 level below is the most important current support—if effectively broken, it could open a decline to $100 or even lower. The higher resistance at $154–$155 is the level that must be broken to reverse the medium-term trend.
Risk Warning: SOXL is a triple-leveraged ETF with extreme intraday volatility. The current price has been halved twice from the $302 high, but the trend reversal is not yet confirmed. Nvidia's earnings report tomorrow is the biggest uncertainty—brokerages generally describe it as "a quarterly nationwide referendum on the AI sector." If the report exceeds expectations, SOXL may see a violent rebound; if it falls short, the triple leverage will amplify the decline. Investors are advised to strictly avoid high-leverage operations, closely monitor the $106 support level and Nvidia's earnings results, and wait for a clear direction before making decisions. $BTC has bounced after a day of correction and is once again testing the 8W resistance zone, currently holding steady around $79,000. 🚀 After several consecutive days of gains, the market is consolidating rather than experiencing a sharp pullback toward the 7W support. This kind of controlled correction can be a healthy sign, allowing the previous trend to strengthen. The $79K–$80K zone is now the key area to watch. A clean breakout and sustained move above $80K could open the door for furtherSuppose you are bullish on BTC in the long term but expect a pullback in the coming weeks. How would you respond?
The most obvious approach might be to sell some spot holdings and buy back after the price drops.
But the problem is, you not only have to decide when to sell, but also when to buy back (two decisions). If the market doesn't pull back, you might not be able to restore your original spot position.
Another approach is to keep your spot holdings unchanged and hedge with leverage to reduce net exposure.
For example, if you hold 10 BTC, you only hedge 3 of them. When the price drops, profits from the short position can offset some of the spot losses; when the price rises, you retain most of your long exposure (the short position is closed without two separate timing decisions).
Objectively speaking, leverage itself is neither "good" nor "bad"; the difference lies in how people use it—whether as a "trading strategy" or a "gambling tool."
Here comes another question: how to choose the tool?
Many people immediately think of perpetual contracts when they hear leverage. But there is also a tool called Margin Trading (spot leverage).
The biggest difference between it and perpetuals is that one trades real spot assets, while the other trades price contracts; also, their cost structures differ.
The core holding cost of perpetuals is the funding rate, which can remain negative during crowded one-sided short positions. Using perpetuals to hedge in this case results in continuous erosion, which is unfavorable.
If you use spot leverage, it means borrowing BTC → selling at a high price → buying back after the price drops → repaying the borrowed BTC.
The hedging effect is the same, but the cost structure changes to: trading fees + market borrowing interest rates