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📊 $SUI Contract Liquidation Express (August 26)
Long positions went from extreme crushing to continuous exhaustion, with a 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeding $2.22 million, concentrated at 75.9%...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $450.78 $0 $450.78
4 hours $204,400 $203,300 $1,000
12 hours $1,687,500 $1,611,600 $75,900
24 hours $2,224,100 $1,989,900 $234,200
Shorts monopolized the 1-hour liquidation but only at $450, an ineffective scale; at 4 hours, longs violently reversed with 194x leverage, surging to $203,300; at 12 hours, long leverage sharply dropped to 21x, with volume soaring to $1,611,600; at 24 hours, it further declined to 8.5x, with long liquidations at $1,989,900 versus shorts at $234,200, totaling $2,224,100. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 75.9% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration—longs completed most of the harvesting within 12 hours, adding only about $536,600 in the following 12 hours. Long leverage collapsed from 194x down to 8.5x, indicating a significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction is bullish, the strength is weakening, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 26
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin retreated after briefly testing $80,000, the US economic isolation of Iran failed to push oil prices higher, and the largest Bitcoin holding company chose to stay put amid the surge.
₿ BTC Retreats After Breaking $80,000: The Brief Test, The Real Challenge Begins
On August 25, during the Asian session, Bitcoin climbed 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. It rose about 24% over the past week, marking the best performance in 2023.
However, the breakout did not hold—Bitcoin subsequently fell below $80,000. The catalyst for this rally came from macro factors: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond repurchases to suppress long-end yields, triggering dollar sell-offs and reigniting "devaluation trades." Last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest single-week inflow since early October last year.
Analysts note that this rally was mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can continue remains to be seen.
🚢 US Launches Economic Isolation of Iran: The Harsher the Sanctions, The Lower the Oil Prices
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, the US Treasury expanded sanctions to five sectors including aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, sanctioning nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels. Yellen said the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government."
After the sanctions, international oil prices fell instead of rising—Brent crude dropped 2.4% to about $92 per barrel, and WTI crude fell over 2% to around $85. Oil prices had already risen for six consecutive trading days, with geopolitical risks fully priced in. The sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing some market fears.
🏦 Strategy Holds Steady: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Waiting for What?
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average price of about $75,385.
During the same period, the company raised about $2 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account. Strategy chose to pause buying and hold $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at current prices will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin’s short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin retreated after briefly testing $80,000, and whether the short squeeze-driven rally can turn into sustained buying remains uncertain; the US economic isolation of Iran failed to push oil prices higher, with geopolitical risks fully priced in; Strategy chose to hold steady with $6.7 billion cash as Bitcoin neared $80,000, making its allocation rhythm intriguing. $SUI contract longs collapsed from 194x to 8.5x leverage, with cumulative liquidations of $2.22 million and a concentration of 75.9%, showing significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum. When devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can truly hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 The $80,000 USD level was gained and lost again, and $81,000 was only touched briefly like a dragonfly skimming the water before quickly falling back. Bulls and bears are fiercely tugging here, and the market has reached a crossroads.
The core drivers of this rapid rise are becoming clear: a short squeeze was the fuse, with about $7.2 billion in short positions liquidated within a week, creating a typical short squeeze scenario; ETF inflows are the fuel, with a net inflow of about $1.9 billion in a single week, providing sustained buying power; and a warming macro outlook is the backdrop, as a weaker dollar has restored Bitcoin's "devaluation hedge" narrative.
But technical indicators have turned on warning lights: the daily RSI once touched an overbought zone at 83, prices have deviated too far from short-term moving averages, and profit-taking pressure is accumulating. Currently, $81,000 is the first resistance wall, with analysts generally focusing on $83,000—if this is effectively broken, the $85,000-$90,000 range will open up; otherwise, the $74,000-$76,000 range is the key support line below.
On-chain data also warrants caution: whales are gradually reducing holdings during the rally, with one address selling about $576 million at a high level; the proportion of short-term holders taking profits jumped from 26% to 74.9% within a week, indicating a risk of loosening chips.
The underlying tone of this rally is a capital-driven market fueled by "ETF inflows + short covering," rather than a comprehensive fundamental improvement. Breaking through $83,000 would continue the trend, but if repeatedly blocked at $80,000-$81,000, the probability of a pullback to confirm support will increase.
When direction is unclear, patience is more precious than courage.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC
Kazakhstan cuts oil production by 2 million tons, what does that have to do with BTC?
Many people's first reaction when they see this news is
I trade BTC, why care about oil?
Hehe……
This is the most interesting part of the financial market
Kazakhstan has lowered its 2026 oil production target from 98 million tons to 96 million tons
Mainly related to attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium facilities
A reduction of 2 million tons may seem insignificant
But put it into the current big picture
Middle East situation, Hormuz, sanctions, transportation, crude oil inventories……
The entire energy market becomes very sensitive
After production cuts, oil prices will rise
When oil prices rise, living costs increase, and prices go up
When prices go up, inflation pressure increases
Once inflation rises
The Fed's expectation of rate cuts may change
It becomes harder to cut rates
Maybe even need to raise rates
After rate hikes, there is less money in the market
Less money in the market
Institutions tend to become conservative
They won't dare to play with high-risk assets like stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies
They might prefer to buy gold, US bonds, or even deposit money in banks
Then the chain of dollar, US bonds, gold, stocks, BTC……
All connected for you
Fewer people may be willing to invest in high-risk assets like crypto
BTC might weaken
The financial market is just that tricky
A piece of oil news that seems unrelated to you
In the end, it might affect your BTC position
Blow you out of the market
Leaving you confused
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $BTC 在7.9万美元附近反复拉扯，@天才交易员绿毛 给出的主方向很明确：偏空。但这场直播真正值得看的，并不是一句“今晚瀑布”，而是他一边等待下跌，一边把仓位越加越重，亲手展示了方向、时点和风险控制之间的冲突。判断对了不等于一定赚到钱；仓位失控时，行情甚至不需要反向太远，就足以让账户先离场。 他的空头剧本有两道关键条件。第一道是7.85万美元，价格只有跌破并无法迅速收回，才算打开向7.5万美元延伸的空间；第二道是上方7.96万至8万美元，若15分钟级别重新站稳，尤其收在7.96万美元上方，空头逻辑就开始失效。也就是说，7.85万是下跌确认，7.96万至8万是风险边界，中间区域仍然只是高波动震荡，不适合把预测当成结果。 在目标上，他先看7.5万美元，随后把进一步观察区放在7.45万至7.47万美元附近。不过，这些位置在直播结束前并没有被确认触及。盘中BTC虽一度回落到7.9万美元下方，但反复拉升、回落，说明空头压力存在，却还没有完成单边破位。因此，更准确的理解是：只有7.85万真正失守、反抽又站不回去，7.5万和7.45万才从主观看空变成可以验证的路径。 再看$ETH。绿毛认为以太坊相🔥 BITCOIN EXPOSES THE INFLATION TAX PROBLEM
BTC’s recent rally partly reflects a weaker U.S. dollar, but the tax system still measures gains in nominal dollars, not real purchasing power.
Buy BTC at $50K and sell at $75K—you may owe tax on the full $25K gain, even though inflation reduced part of the real value created.
Income tax brackets are adjusted for inflation, but capital gains generally aren’t.
Until the rules change, long-term BTC holders can face taxes on gains partly driven 【BTC Surpasses $80K, This Rally Is Different from Previous Ones】
$BTC has surged from around $62K to above $80K, an increase of nearly 30%, but the contract open interest (OI) has not inflated uncontrollably with the price. This indicates the market is still mainly driven by short covering and spot demand, with no significant buildup of leveraged long positions yet.
More importantly, the US BTC spot ETF saw an inflow of about $337.6M in a single day, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of net inflows. Besides the short squeeze, this rally is genuinely supported by real capital taking over, making the structure clearly healthier than previous contract-driven rebounds.
Currently, spot selling pressure has not noticeably increased, and the $80K sell wall has been eaten up. The next key level naturally is the previous high at $83K.
I believe these signals further support that the bear market has ended, but the near-vertical rise is not suitable for FOMO. Rather than anxiously chasing the highs, it’s better to wait for a breakout above the previous high followed by a consolidation range, or watch for a pullback opportunity between $72K and $74K.
Do you think BTC will break through $83K directly, or will it pull back first for a shakeout?#TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？
The TRUMP team has started selling again.
The impact on the TRUMP coin is twofold.
There is indeed short-term selling pressure, and the remaining nearly 2.7 million coins could form new supply at any time, so short-term price pressure is highly likely.
The bigger issue is trust. The project team keeps selling, which continuously erodes market confidence. If the team doesn't hold their own coins, why should retail investors hold? Once this trust collapses, it will take a long time to repair.
Here’s my view.
Since TRUMP launched, the pattern has been clear—promote at highs, sell at lows. Whenever market sentiment is good, related addresses are selling. This time, when Bitcoin surged to 80,000, they came back with another wave.
I’m not commenting on whether this coin is worth playing, but if you hold it, you at least need to know you’re betting on short-term volatility, while the other side is betting on you to take the bag.
Bitcoin is currently consolidating, and overall market sentiment is still decent, but the price movement of this political meme coin has little to do with Bitcoin; it follows its own capital game logic. Those with positions should watch the rhythm carefully; those without can just watch the show.
$TRUMP $BTC $ETH BTC broke through 80,000, and everyone started shouting for 100,000 again, but I think this is exactly the time to calm down. Have you ever wondered, when everyone is excited in the same direction, who is the one who truly takes the chips? I held short positions in BTC and XRP, with an unrealized loss of nearly 50,000 USD. It would be a lie to say it hurt. But to be honest, I wasn't worried at all. Not because I'm stubborn, but because I saw some details others might overlook. Let's start with ETH. This wave started around 2355 and surged straight to 2533—the speed is indeed impressive. But here's the problem—what happens after the rush? It hasn't broken new highs again, but instead lingered above 2500, now sliding back to around 2460. This trend gave me the impression that buying wasn't as firm as I imagined; it was more like after sweeping out the bears, the buyer itself had lost much momentum. Looking at BTC, the 80,000 mark has indeed arrived, and market sentiment has been ignited instantly. But everyone only saw the price rise, but overlooked an interesting signal—a whale on the chain who had been dormant for four years recently started selling shares, with realized profits of $76.5 million. For a big player of this level, his actions are never on a whim. The more lively the market, the more likely they are quietly cutting back. So the question now is simple: who is buying, and who is selling? With prices rising so much, who will be handed over to the final baton? I know that the current bearish logic is a bit headwindy, but the market gives me the impression that BTC is facing more pressure near 80,000 than expected, and ETH as well⚡ BTC/USDT Quick Analysis
BTC is consolidating around $BTC 79,240.1 on the 15-minute chart, holding above moving averages (MA5: $79,075.1, MA10: $79,157.2, MA20: $79,095.3) after bouncing from a low of $78,127.6.
* Bull Case: Holding above $79,100 could drive a push toward $79,600 and $80,000.
* Bear Case: Losing $79,000 support increases risk of a pullback toward $78,500 – $BTC 78,120.
Trade with strict risk controls!
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #OKXTraderVoices #BTC breaks through $80,000, can it hold the new threshold? Good evening everyone!
$BTC BTC
Its point of failure is not due to technical faults, but due to a collapse of consensus and unmet institutional expectations. The code and ledger themselves are hard to destroy, but its value is entirely built on the collective trust of global participants.
The biggest risk is not a crash, but the shift of US regulation from acceptance to suppression, causing massive outflows from ETFs. As long as institutions begin to continuously withdraw, the narrative of digital gold will be re-evaluated. It won't die because of the rise of a particular public chain, but if major asset classes no longer consider it a hedging tool, its valuation will decline long-term. The failure scenario for BTC: not zeroing out, but becoming a niche speculative asset, losing its institutional allocation attribute.
$ETH ETH
ETH has two independent failure logics. First, on the regulatory side, if it is officially classified as a security, institutional ETFs and compliant funds will be blocked, directly compressing growth valuation. Second, on the ecosystem side, if L2 scales massively rise and the mainnet is completely marginalized.
When a large volume of transactions permanently migrate to layer 2 networks, mainnet fee income continuously shrinks, and staking rewards rely solely on issuance, the "world computer" narrative will be discounted. Even if the technology continues to iterate, if the mainnet loses economic value, ETH will become merely a staking certificate without infrastructure premium. Its risk is that technology remains, but economic value is diluted, decoupling coin price from ecosystem development.
$SOL SOL
The most realistic failure risk for SOL comes from unsustainable traffic. Much of the current on-chain prosperity comes from meme coins and short-term speculative hype. Once the speculative craze fades, if there is not enough real business and long-term users to take over, on-chain activity will sharply decline.
Additionally, continuous token inflation unlocking, without sufficient buy-side support, will create long-term selling pressure. It is not afraid of single network failures; the real fatal issue is that after the hype fades, developers and funds collectively migrate to other public chains. Unlike BTC's consensus or ETH's developer base, SOL's user and capital stickiness is relatively weak. The failure scenario is not the chain stopping operation, but becoming a temporary hotspot unable to accumulate long-term ecological value.
Summary: BTC fears reversal of consensus and institutional expectations; ETH fears regulatory classification plus mainnet economy diluted by L2; SOL fears speculative traffic decline and inability to retain users and developers in the ecosystem. The current market is trading on a better future, but each coin has its own unique logic falsification path.#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ Zh1ss tonight will break down this major geopolitical bearish candle for you. First, some verified numbers (neodata fully verified):
• US Treasury Secretary Bassett announced on 8/24 the "economic isolation action," personally named by Trump as Iran's "economic Normandy landing day"
• Secondary sanctions expanded to five sectors: aviation / digital assets / gold / shipping / technology, listing about 60 entities and vessels
• Unofficial rial rate at 2,039,000 to 1 dollar — a historic low (intraday 2,020,000, official still at 1,500,000)
• But WTI crude oil at $82.55, down −2.89% on the day, Brent closed down −2.5% on 8/24 — sanctions escalated, yet oil prices fell, here’s the proof: first, debunk a misunderstanding, don’t embarrass yourself: the "zero leakage" phrase you quoted — that was Iran’s own claim ("not a drop of oil leaks from the Persian Gulf"), the US side actually uses terms like "economic offensive" and "cutting off every economic lifeline." Bassett himself said "corrective timeline" and "the heaviest blow is still hanging in the air." Don’t mix up the names.
Core argument: this round of sanctions made a lot of noise, but the market had already absorbed the impact in advance. Old Zhou slammed the table to emphasize — oil prices not rising is not because the market is stupid, but because the market has calculated three accounts clearly:
① Don’t believe you can really choke off supply (main reason). Capital Economics bluntly said: about 90% of Iran’s oil flows to China, relying on shadow fleets + local currency settlements (de-dollarization) $BTC summary in one sentence: a false boom!
In September, Bitcoin will still return to 60,000 or even 50,000, for three reasons:
1. The pressure of the midterm elections in the United States. Trump, as the first crypto president in history, needs to keep the US stock market and crypto prices relatively high before the midterm results come out; otherwise, public opinion will react poorly and votes will be low. But judging from the current US-Iran situation, things are already not good, so compensation must be found elsewhere;
2. From on-chain data, Wall Street folks have not started bottom-fishing because 60,000 is not considered the bottom by them. When Wall Street starts bottom-fishing, I will also surrender and believe this is the bottom, and I will have missed the opportunity;
3. Today Bitcoin has already broken through 81,000, but there are still too many shorts, especially the short whales on decentralized exchanges who have not reduced their positions and still need to be shaken out. 80,000 is the fiercest battleground between bulls and bears, but it still hasn’t broken the previous high of 82,850, which is a bit difficult. After all, a rally requires huge capital. Would the market makers be so kind as to push it up to the previous high to let some people break even? So breaking through 83,000 is also an important signal of the start of a bull run. The monthly candle this month is very likely to be bullish, maintaining two consecutive months of bullish closes, breaking the stubborn pattern in the eyes of the bears, and turning the last stubborn people to bullish.
Recently, there have been too many positive news, reminding me of those days in early October 2025 when everyone was shouting Bitcoin to 150,000, but the result was....
The above is just my opinion, knowing and doing as one, I will not bottom-fish spot above 60,000, leaving it to time $ZEC 8-year high at $888: Grayscale ETF listing + governance vote, leverage crowding hides de-risk
$852, today surged to $888, an 8-year high since 2018, 7-day increase +67%-75.5%, second place this week. Good news, but what to watch out for is not the good news, it's the leverage.
Three catalysts collided. ① Grayscale's ZCSH officially listed today on the NYSE Arca national securities exchange (no longer OTC, largest discount in 9 years -55% overnight returned to positive); ② NU7 upgrade community vote starts 8/25 ends 9/14, threshold 1 million ZEC; ③ Privacy narrative supported by Grayscale executives "AI monitors finance, privacy demand will only rise."
But leverage is ridiculously crowded. ZEC perpetual open interest doubled from $962M to $1.8B in one week, funding +0.0106% longs start paying. With this level of crowding, as soon as BTC pulls back, large funds will withdraw, and long liquidation cascade can smash ZEC down 15-20%. Glassnode data: 85% of altcoin funding rates are now above historical averages, peak level this cycle.
Price structure is unfriendly. Price rose too fast. $900 is Fib extension resistance, less than 6% from $852; $800-812 is support zone, breaking it requires reducing positions. Mining revenue $727/MWh is 3.3 times HPC, this is a structural long logic.1. Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index Hits New High for the Year, Risk Appetite Rapidly Rises On August 26, the crypto market Fear and Greed Index rose to 74, officially entering the "Greed" zone, marking the highest level in 2026 so far. • Rare sentiment jump: 30 days ago, the index was only 26, in the "Extreme Fear" zone; a week ago it was still at 41, a "Neutral" level. The 33-point weekly surge is the fastest sentiment recovery in nearly a year. • Threshold approaching: 75 is the boundary for "Extreme Greed," currently just one point away. Historical data shows that when the index exceeds 70, short-term market volatility significantly increases, and the probability of profit-taking triggering a pullback rises rapidly. • Structural divergence: Market-wide sentiment is warming but unevenly distributed; mainstream coins lead in sentiment gains over altcoins; the altcoin season index is only 38/100, far from the 75-point altcoin season standard, indicating funds have not fully shifted to small and mid-cap coins. 2. Market Performance: Mainstream Coin Overflow Drives, Structural Leadership Rather Than Broad-Based Rally This altcoin rally is driven by the spillover effect of BTC’s weekly gain exceeding 25%, showing a pattern of "mainstream setting the stage, leaders performing," without the characteristics of a broad-based bull market. 1. Market Cap Landscape: The global crypto market total capitalization is about $2.66 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market share at 59.69%, maintaining absolute dominance; altcoin assets outside Bitcoin have rebounded to about $1.07 trillion, up approximately 22% from the recent low, but still significantly below previous highs. 2. Leading RaceThe midterm election window in September has just begun
Everyone is watching the upcoming Nvidia earnings tonight. On the surface, it looks like a company report card,
but in reality, it's more like a stress test for the entire AI market. The market no longer just wants "Nvidia to grow," but demands it to continue significantly exceeding expectations and to prove to everyone: AI capital expenditures have not peaked, data center spending can still burn, and ultimately, it can really generate returns. If there's even a slight miss against the already ridiculously high market expectations, the AI theme could face a collective revaluation.
What's more interesting is that derivatives funds are no longer just focused on tonight. VIX futures are gradually rising from September to October and November, indicating the market is willing to pay more "insurance" the closer it gets to the U.S. midterm election window. This doesn't mean U.S. stocks must fall, but everyone has accepted that while things seem calm now, the uncertainty ahead could become increasingly costly.
Historically, midterm election years have a typical rhythm: before the election, volatility tends to rise due to back-and-forth over policies, congressional control, and economic expectations; once the results are in, uncertainty may actually be released. The problem is this year is different from many ordinary midterm years—U.S. stocks are already at high levels, and AI has contributed a lot of gains, so once repricing begins, the volatility might be more intense than expected.
So there are actually two stages ahead. The first stage focuses on Nvidia: if the earnings and guidance remain strong, U.S. stocks, especially AI and semiconductors, might still rally further; if it's just "good" but not enough to keep everyone excited, then high-valuation tech stocks might start to loosen first. The second stage is the real trouble—after September, uncertainties from interest rates, policies, and the midterm elections will gradually accumulate.
Therefore, I now tend to believe that the second half of this year won't simply answer "Is the bull market over?" More likely, another scenario will emerge: indices can still rise, but it will be increasingly difficult to hold on. Today AI rallies, tomorrow interest rates hit, the day after election expectations slap again, and volatility slowly wears down everyone's patience.
Tonight, Nvidia will decide whether U.S. stocks move up or down next.
But the real big test may just begin in September as the midterm elections draw closer.
$NVDA This round of $BTC rally is essentially shorts pricing for the longs.
BTC surged from the $60,000 range straight above $81,000, rising over 35% in three weeks. The speed made many mistakenly believe the bull market had returned early. But a detailed breakdown of the capital structure behind this rise reveals a different fact—the main force driving the price up is not institutions buying up, nor retail chasing the rally, but passive buying caused by shorts being squeezed and forced to close positions.
In other words, the price was "stepped on" rather than "bought up." This kind of upward movement has very strong initial momentum, but its downside is also obvious: once the momentum from short covering is exhausted, the price, lacking spot buying support, is prone to stagnation or even retracement.
What truly determines the nature of this rally is not whether BTC can hold above $81,000, but whether it can continue to attract new proactive buying after digesting the short positions. If subsequent funds cannot take over, the current rise is just a large-scale liquidation rebound, not a trend reversal.
Chasing longs at this point is betting that shorts can continue to be squeezed; waiting and watching is to see if the market can prove it has the strength to keep rising. Both have their reasons, but the latter is safer. The accelerated easing of the US-Iran situation has caused energy prices to start returning to a downward trend. As a core macro variable, crude oil prices are falling back, naturally signaling that the macro direction needs to begin adjusting. Without discussing the direction of adjustment, the expectation is that an adjustment will occur.
Using international crude oil prices as a new reference, the current price is $87. Once it falls below $85, it will officially interfere with this week's macro mainline.
If it falls below $85 this week, it will ease future inflation pressures and similarly reduce the macro pressure brought by Wednesday's July PCE. If PCE is bearish, the decline will be hedged and mitigated; if bullish, it will amplify the rebound gains of risk assets.
If it directly falls below $80 this week, it can directly reverse this week's macro trend. The optimistic sentiment of easing future inflation will cause the market to directly ignore the adverse factors brought by Wednesday's PCE.
Regarding Nvidia's earnings report on Thursday, if crude oil falls below $85 this week and Nvidia's earnings meet expectations, the "sell the news" reaction will mean the originally expected ±6% volatility becomes limited downside with a stronger rebound, potentially leading to a collective rebound in the US tech sector. And if it falls below $80, as long as Nvidia's earnings are not below expectations, the threat of the earnings report to the US stock index can basically be ignored.
As for Wash's speech on Friday, if international energy prices fall below $80 before Friday this week, Wash's hawkish stance will also be weakened. Repeating previous hawkish views is unlikely to intimidate the market. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 One more piece of information needs to be added:
CNBC leaked that the Treasury might use nearly one trillion dollars in cash from the TGA account to fund expanded buybacks.
This conveys several messages:
1. Besent continues to increase buybacks despite criticism from his mentor, with an even tougher stance than before.
2. If this really happens, it means the Treasury is directly releasing liquidity, and gold and Bitcoin should continue to soar.
3. It hedges against Wash's QT, forcing the Fed to be more hawkish.
Now the ball is in Wash's court; on Friday he has to face the market and decide whether to comment on buybacks and whether to admit that his QT can be unilaterally hedged by the Treasury.
If admitted, it weakens independence. If denied, the market will teach a lesson. So these two brothers are starting to compete? Moreover, the probability of a September rate hike has quietly begun to rise. #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 On August 24, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the expansion of secondary sanctions against Iran, targeting Tehran's trade, financial, and energy revenues. At first glance, rising geopolitical risks should have driven oil prices higher, but the market gave the opposite answer: WTI crude slipped to around $85, while Brent crude fell to $91. This divergence of "increased sanctions and falling oil prices" is precisely the most intriguing aspect of the current market pricing logic. The market does not simply equate the word "sanctions" with "payment defaults." Instead, traders are asking a more pragmatic question: Will these measures truly reduce the physical supply of global crude oil? At least from the current signals, the answer leans toward "not for now." This U.S. move is an extension of economic containment, not accompanied by large-scale military operations, nor has there been a substantial threat of a full-scale blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, Washington's signal is closer to "pressure first, negotiate later" rather than "directly ignite conflict." This interpretation has caused the previously accumulated war premium to begin to loosen. In recent weeks, oil prices have surged sharply due to US-Iran tensions and strait risks. Now, market attention has shifted from "whether there will be a supply cut" to "how likely it is to be cut off." As long as this probability does not continue to rise, the risk premium previously included in the price will gradually be withdrawn. In other words, crude oil futures trading is never about today's spot price, but about the possibility of conflict tomorrow. Another real factor supporting the price decline is that Iranian crude oil has not truly disappeared from the market. Despite the obvious sanctionsCapital is changing direction
Recently, this capital flow is, in my opinion, more worth paying attention to than simply watching price rises and falls.
Last week, bond capital clearly accelerated, with net inflows into government bond ETFs reaching a relatively large scale recently. At the same time, after capital started flowing out of large U.S. stocks, there was also a noticeable withdrawal.
What signal is this?
It's simple: the market is starting to defend itself.
It's not that everyone suddenly turned bearish on U.S. stocks, nor that a crash is imminent, but capital is beginning to leave itself a way out.
When growth expectations start to waver and interest rates reach a peak, the attractiveness of bonds naturally rises again.
And the large tech stocks that have risen the most and have the most crowded positions naturally become the first place capital considers when adjusting positions.
What I am truly focusing on now is not how much money flowed in this week, but whether this direction will continue over the next 2–3 weeks.
If it's just a normal portfolio adjustment, there's nothing much to say.
But if bonds continue to attract capital while large stocks keep seeing capital outflows, then it's not just a simple short-term fluctuation.
This may mean the market is slowly switching from an **"offensive mode" to a "defensive mode."**
Especially now, with issues like interest rates, inflation, and fiscal policy still unresolved, capital naturally won't just focus on immediate gains.
So now, when I look at the market, I don't like to just focus on candlestick charts.
Where the money flows is more important than how prices move. I haven't posted much about US stocks these past couple of days because it's really been too boring. Last week's hot topic suddenly shifted from storage back to Bitcoin, and the few US stocks with the highest attention haven't shown much volatility, so there's not much to report.
Currently, the three major storage stocks seem to be waiting for Nvidia's earnings report to make a decisive move. Anyway, shorting on rallies should work; it will likely follow a period of a declining and oscillating trend with shrinking volume, similar to the recent gold and Bitcoin pattern, forming a bottom.
SPCX seems to have already formed a bottom above 130.
After briefly touching 130 last week, the lows have been steadily rising. With no lower positions formed despite unlocking selling pressure and a favorable price zone, it can only go up like it is now.
This stabilization is most likely due to early positioning ahead of the September 18 tidal event. If the stock price doesn't break the upward channel amid macro information and data, it will probably first test the 140 resistance level. If it confirms a breakout, the short-term structure will officially strengthen, first targeting 143.34–145, then 149.8–150; options hedging after breaking 140 might help accelerate this.
I currently lean towards SPCX entering a 135–145 bottoming box, with a high probability of first testing 143–145; the chance of directly dropping to 120 has clearly decreased.
If it rushes to 150 before the September 9 unlocking but leaves a long upper shadow again, I will still interpret it as creating an exit price for sellers; if it can hold above 145 and break 150 after unlocking, then around 159 will truly enter an expectable replenishment range. $SPCX $SNDK .WuXi AppTec (02268.HK)
The CXO sector leads the gains, with the interim report performance far exceeding expectations. Adjusted net profit increased by 37.4% year-on-year, and orders on hand grew by 62.2% year-on-year, confirming the recovery in the outsourced innovative drug industry. The restocking cycle of overseas pharmaceutical companies has begun, with orders continuously being released. Overseas geopolitical and policy changes may affect overseas orders. Industry competition intensifies, and rising labor costs will compress gross margins. After a round of stock price rebound, it is necessary to monitor the sustainability of subsequent new orders.4. Chutianlong (003040)
Three consecutive limit-ups on the digital currency concept, with the expansion of digital RMB operating institutions catalyzing sector momentum. The company is deploying digital RMB hardware wallets and security card businesses, with order expectations heating up. The company's traditional smart card business still accounts for a high proportion, and the digital currency business currently contributes a limited share of revenue. The industry is still in the promotion stage, with slow progress in large-scale commercialization. This round of price increase is driven by thematic speculation, with uncertainties in performance fulfillment and high short-term volatility risk. 2. Yingwei Ke (002837)
AI liquid cooling temperature control popular stock, stock price surged significantly. The penetration rate of liquid cooling in computing power data centers continues to rise, large-scale construction of AIDC drives growth in temperature control equipment orders, mid-year report shows volume increase in energy storage temperature control business, with substantial inflow of main funds. Industry demand is on the rise, but the influx of many new players intensifies competition, which will compress gross margins. Capital expenditure on computing power below expectations will directly impact performance; it is a highly elastic growth stock, and caution is needed for profit-taking after positive news is realized. 1. Jin Jian Grain Industry (600127)
Leading company in the seed industry sector, hit the daily limit today. The El Niño climate risk has raised global expectations of reduced grain production, strengthening the main theme of food security policies, with capital flowing into the agricultural defense sector. The company mainly engages in grain and oil processing, with continuous expansion in the seed business. The seed industry is highly competitive, and favorable policies bring thematic premiums. Short-term performance is unlikely to explode; market trends are more driven by event catalysts. The sector rotates quickly, and there is a high risk of correction as the heat fades, making it unsuitable for chasing gains at high levels. 这位OG巨鲸在当前行情下增持300枚BTC多单 价值约2324.75万美元 • 当前总持仓规模：1.47亿美元 • 持仓均价：77089.90美元 • 浮盈：346.58万美元，收益率+7.05% • 清算价：44850.61美元，安全垫非常厚，距离现价差距巨大，短期几乎没有爆仓风险。 该巨鲸背景 • 历史持仓曾手握5万枚BTC，沉寂8年，部分BTC换仓ETH； • 交易节奏和美国政策、特朗普言论高度同步； • 经典战绩：在「10.11」大跌之前提前布空，获利接近1亿美元，属于市场认可度很高的老牌链上大资金。 怎么看待这次加仓 ✅ 偏积极信号 1. 老牌OG巨鲸在靠近8万关口选择继续加多，不是止盈跑路 对比前面余烬大规模止盈、麻吉黄立成高位调仓、Abraxas逆势加空，市场出现明显分化。 这位有成功预判历史的大资金 选择在高位继续加码多头 代表他认为本轮行情还没有结束 看好向上空间 2. 清算价极低，属于“长线博弈”仓位，不是短线赌一把 清算价4.4万，意味着即便BTC出现大幅回调 这个仓位也不会被强平 不是短期投机杠杆 是偏中期的押注 ⚠️ 需要理性看待的局限性 1. 只是单一巨鲸的Objective Analysis of Bitcoin at the $81,000 Level
Recently, $BTC price has shown a rapid upward trend, with a weekly maximum increase of over 25%. After reaching around $81,000 intraday, it encountered significant resistance and a pullback at the 50-week moving average. Currently, the battle between bulls and bears at this key level is intensifying.
From a technical statistical perspective, the 50-week moving average is a mid-term trend indicator with high reference value in Bitcoin's historical bull and bear cycles. Reviewing the past 13 complete bear market cycles, in 11 instances Bitcoin effectively held above the 50-week moving average, subsequently confirming the formation of a mid-term bottom. This indicator's mid-term trend direction has been validated with a high success rate in past cycles. Therefore, the 50-week moving average near $81,000 has become the core observation point for judging the nature of the current market.
The driving structure behind this rapid price increase shows clear composite characteristics: besides the usual inflow of spot funds, a large short position liquidation in the short term contributed additional upward momentum. Nearly $3 billion in short positions were closed across the market, combined with short covering behavior, jointly pushing the price rapidly to the current resistance level in a very short time. This short-term rapid rise objectively results in insufficient turnover cycles below the key resistance level, with a relatively high proportion of floating positions in the holding structure, leading to some uncertainty in the sustainability of the subsequent market.
The core observation dimension for the subsequent market is not whether the price can briefly break through $81,000, but whether sufficient chip exchange can be completed in the $80,000 range, ultimately stabilizing effectively at the $81,000-$82,000 range on a weekly candlestick level. If this condition is met, the overall market narrative will shift from "the sustainability of the bear market rebound" to "opportunity selection for pullback positioning," and the mid-term trend expectation will undergo a significant change.
At the current stage, it is not advisable to conclude the start of a new bull market solely based on a single short-term price break above $80,000. The core verification signal for a trend reversal has never been the instant bullish candle at the moment of breaking resistance, but the sustained performance of forming effective support at that level after the breakout. This is also the key test for whether the current bullish trend can be ultimately confirmed.
Risk Warning: This article is only an objective market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The volatility of the crypto asset market is significantly higher than that of traditional financial markets. Investors should make rational decisions based on their own risk tolerance.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 ZRO rose from 0.788 USDT on August 18 to 1.313 USDT now, an increase of over 66% in seven days.
Many people's first reaction was that it was because LayerZero announced ATLAS. But the timeline doesn't match.
ATLAS was announced on August 25. Before that, ZRO had already risen to 1.18. So the real first step was the token unlock on August 20. At that time, the market was worried that more than 20 million ZRO would be sold off at once, but the price did not fall; instead, it rose all the way to 1.159. This indicates that the market had already priced in too much selling pressure, and when the day actually came, the sell-off was not as much as expected, forcing the shorts to reassess their risk.
ATLAS is the second phase of acceleration. ZRO will take on the Gas, staking, and governance functions of the Zero chain; 75% of the remaining fees will be used to buy back and burn ZRO. The market began to reinterpret it from a cross-chain governance token to a value capture asset shared by the entire ecosystem.
What is even more noteworthy is the contract market. OKX's ZRO perpetual open interest increased by nearly 48% in one day, but the long-short account ratio is still only 0.67, with more short accounts.
However, the daily RSI has now reached 77.3, and the price has hit the current high of 1.35–1.36 and the 200-day moving average. Next, it depends on whether it can truly hold above 1.36; if it falls below 1.20, then it will be a question of whether 1.10 can hold!
$ZRO Because SpaceX has been stuck recently, I'm a bit bored but also don't dare to slack off, so I'm casually writing some market impressions, not advice, just sharing.
The funding rate has been hovering around 0.01% these days; neither longs nor shorts want to pay the other side, indicating the market sentiment is very conflicted right now. But strangely, the perpetual contract open interest hasn't dropped much. I checked several major coins, and the OI remains high. This suggests many people aren't betting on direction but are instead hedging or doing range arbitrage; there aren't many funds truly willing to chase breakouts.
I also glanced at on-chain data. The net BTC flow on exchanges is still mainly outflow, but the outflow intensity is clearly weaker than last month. It feels like those who needed to withdraw coins have mostly done so; what's left are short-term chips ready to move at any time. MVRV is hovering around 1, neither high nor low. Historically, this level is the most frustrating, neither going up nor down, and we can only wait for external events to trigger movement.
I don't know when the position will be freed 😵$BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $ Bitcoin getting rejected around $81K is worth watching.
But I'm not buying the $50K is next” narrative yet.
$BTC pushed above $81K and ran directly into the 50-week moving average before falling back below $80K.
Technically, that's a warning
But one rejection doesn't automatically turn an uptrend into a bear market.
The part I find more interesting is what's happening underneath the price
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded six consecutive days of inflows, with roughly $337M entering onLooking back at this rally, the rebound from around $60,000 to $80,000 marked a huge shift in market sentiment. A few months ago, many people actively bottom-fished in the $58,000-$62,000 range, believing "if it doesn't fall below $58,000, it's an opportunity." But when BTC climbed back above $80,000, the market began discussing targets of $100,000 or even higher. But here's a question worth pondering: if everyone thinks a bull market is coming, what is it still missing? In historical cycles, Bitcoin often doesn't end at the most pessimistic moment, but swaps are completed as sentiment shifts from skepticism to frenzy. Although the four-year cycle isn't an absolute pattern, investor psychology and capital flows can still have similar effects. Currently, BTC's rise does have new support: ETF funds are flowing back;
Increased institutional configuration;
Macro liquidity expectations have improved. Recently, BTC broke through $80,000, accompanied by renewed ETF inflows and a rebound in market risk appetite. But in the short term, it cannot be ignored: the rise is too fast;
Market sentiment is heating up rapidly;
Buying up funds is starting to increase. This doesn't mean BTC will definitely drop sharply, but rather: it's more likely that BTC will enter a phase of volatility and turnover in the future, rather than simply rising all the way. My view: For some time to come, BTC may continue to battle around high-level areas. Strong Script:
Holding firm at $80,000, continuing to challenge for higher positions. Script adjustment:
Pull back to key support, clear leverage from chasing highs, and seek new upward momentum. The market never lacks opportunities; what is lacking is the capital waiting for them.The most worthwhile aspect of this review isn't a single 'spot-on' level, but the repeated switching between long and short plans in the same night. When the price approaches support, it pulls back and rebounds, then rebounds to the resistance zone and searches for new short spots; If you only remember one direction, it's easy to recoup the profits you just made in the next rally.
@交易员刺客 In the livestream, he broke down $BTC's short-term judgment into two layers: the medium-term still maintains the previous bearish logic from short positions around 80,800, while the short-term focus is on the 30-minute support near 78,000. He believes this round of rally will run along the 30-minute Vegas Channel for a long time. When the price returns to the channel and Fibonacci levels and there is coordination between MACD and KDJ, a rebound at a low level can be attempted; However, a rebound does not mean the trend has turned bullish again; if there is pressure above, the rhythm will return to "rebound continues to bear."
This is also the most easily misunderstood part of the livestream title "Pullback Going Long." A pullback is a conditional short-term trade, not an unconditional bottom-fishing, and certainly not overturning all medium-term bearish judgments. Assassin first tried going long around 78,000 during trading, then searched for short positions above 79,200. The core basis is a position change, not a sudden sentiment reversal. Trading directions can be switched, but the premise is that each trade has independent entry, expiration, and exit conditions.
He repeatedly emphasized in his position design the principle of "minimum position, the first increase second, and the last increase the maximum," and proposed a 1% base position, gradual increase thereafter, and a cap on total position. The value of this framework is to avoid the first judgment$DOGE: The market hasn't fallen, but Dogecoin is the first to kneel
In the early hours today, this wave of altcoin retreat was most typical in mainstream coins with DOGE: -2.9%, sliding down from above 9 cents. Meanwhile, BTC remains steady at 79000, up 25% this week without even a breather.
$DOGE has risen 30% this week, but the problem lies here — its 30% gain is basically free. The high Beta characteristic of meme coins means they ride the market up but are the first to be thrown off during a retreat. Today, only 14 coins on the entire spot market are in the green; DOGE is not on the list. Even BIO and CRV dropped by over ten percent. The retreat spares no one, big or small.
Looking back at fundamentals, it's the same old story: 5 billion new coins issued annually, no cap, starting with 5% inflation; no smart contracts, no ecosystem, the narrative relies entirely on Musk's Twitter and community memes. With a market cap of 14 billion USD, what you're buying is sentiment plus volatility, not cash flow.
My judgment: The market wind hasn't stopped yet. As long as $BTC doesn't break down, DOGE will still follow the sentiment for some short-term moves. But the 9-cent integer level is essentially an emotional gate — whether it holds depends not on technicals but on whether bulls are willing to keep paying for memes.
When the wind tightens, meme coins always fall first — that's an ironclad rule!
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $SOL reached 100.44, I checked the on-chain staking unlock window and validator flow; there is short-term unlocking pressure, and spot buyers haven't caught up with futures sentiment.
The 100 round number is a psychological level; if it breaks through without volume, it's a bull trap. Short at 100x leverage, currently at 97.51, with an unrealized profit of 291.71%. Set stop loss to lock in cost, let the remaining position run profits. For those who missed it, don't chase the fake breakout at the round number. $BTC $ETH Since last week when Bassett announced a doubling of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases, I have indeed been speculating whether he and Trump’s Wash are playing a tacit game on rate hikes or forcing Trump’s Wash to compromise; whether it is just a helpless move for the moment or a preparation to completely change the U.S. economic and financial framework. Coincidentally, today Bassett and Wash’s mentor Druckenmiller came out to criticize Bassett, which is very noteworthy. From the motivation per$PUMP pulled up to 0.004856, I directly checked the on-chain position distribution. Old addresses are offloading and transferring out, new addresses are rushing to buy, chips are shifting from strong hands to weak hands.
The name is PUMP, but on-chain it's already unloading. After confirmation, 50x short, now at 0.004527, floating profit 338.75%. Stop loss to lock in cost, let the remaining position run profits.
If you didn't catch it, don't pretend you didn't see the whales/old addresses transferring out. $BTC $ETH At 4 a.m., I stared blankly at DOGE's trading window, my mind filled with wild memories from three years ago. Do you remember that summer of 2021? $DOGE went from a joke to faith, reaching a peak of $0.74, and the whole market went wild. Back then, if anyone said it was a game of passing the buck, they'd probably get beaten up. But looking back now, what really made me money wasn't those posts calling for trades, but the position management I learned. Today, let's not talk about mainstream coins but the three dog-like brothers: DOGE, SHIB, and BABYDOGE. DOGE was a product of 2013; it was a joke when it was born, and no one expected it to become a meme coin totem. Its moat isn't technology, but brand recognition and liquidity. Simply put: even if the entire meme sector cools down, DOGE is most likely the last to fall. SHIB was a challenger in 2020, debuting under the banner of "Doge Killer" and later building its own ecosystem. ShibaSwap, BONE, LEASH, and others saw shocking surges in 2021, and the community consensus was solid. BABYDOGE was the trend-chaser in 2021, with a small market cap but high elasticity. It rose fiercely and fell even harder, acting more like a magnifying glass of emotions. If I had to pick one among these three, my ranking would be: DOGE is greater than SHIB and BABYDOGE. It's not because DOGE will rise the most, but because the meme market is truly in real swingThe U.S. economic actions against Iran are sending a signal worth noting: crypto assets have officially entered the global financial game.
Recently, the U.S. expanded the scope of economic sanctions on Iran, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, shipping, and other sectors as key restriction targets, warning that parties involved in related economic activities may face secondary sanctions.
The market's initial reaction is often:
"Is crypto regulation a bearish signal?"
In the short term, there is indeed pressure.
The reason is that stablecoins and centralized trading platforms have compliance attributes, and related addresses, platforms, and fund flows may be affected by regulation. Previously, the U.S. Treasury also imposed sanctions on digital asset transaction channels related to Iran.
But from a longer-term perspective, this actually validates BTC's core value:
Why the world needs an asset that does not rely on the credit of a single country.
So the impact of this on the crypto market needs to be viewed in two phases:
Short term:
Centralized stablecoins and trading platforms face higher compliance pressure.
Long term:
The greater the uncertainty in the global financial system, the stronger the discussion of BTC's value as a non-sovereign reserve asset.
What really matters is not the price fluctuations caused by a single sanction.
But whether digital assets will become part of the global financial system competition in the coming years.
The value of BTC is gradually shifting from being a "speculative asset" to a discussion about "financial infrastructure." $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 After $BTC surged past 80,000, market sentiment has clearly heated up again
But from a short-term trading perspective, I actually wouldn’t chase this wave right now
BTC is currently at the critical resistance zone of 81–83K. The previous rise was indeed supported by capital flows: ETF funds returning, a weakening dollar, and market expectations of improved liquidity all provided solid backing for the bulls
So the question now isn’t "Does BTC still have capital?" but whether this level can continue to attract incremental funds
After continuous rallies, short-term profit-taking has already increased, and chasing funds will start to diverge
Only a volume breakout and stable hold above 81–83K can open up further space; if it hits resistance and pulls back, be prepared for a retracement
So if you have a position, you can hold and observe; if you don’t, there’s no need to chase the last leg for a single bullish candle—waiting for a pullback confirmation might offer better risk-reward
Looking at $ETH
ETH is clearly lagging behind BTC by about half a beat, but that doesn’t mean a weak structure has formed. It previously touched around 2540. If BTC continues to stay strong, ETH still has a catch-up logic, with around 2600 being a key level I’m watching
However, when it reaches near 2600, don’t just focus on upside potential; profit-taking pressure will also increase
On the macro side, I’m still paying close attention to the "liquidity" theme
Arthur Hayes repeatedly emphasizes the logic that as long as the liquidity environment continues to improve, risk assets still have stories to tell
But note, this is more of a medium-term logic
Short-term trading shouldn’t blindly chase highs just because of a bullish macro view
Also, the recent performance of the US tech sector is worth watching
If Nvidia continues to weaken and US tech stocks overall are under pressure, but BTC can still maintain strength, this signal is quite interesting—it suggests that internal capital support within the crypto market might be strengthening
So my current judgment:
BTC: 81–83K will decide if short-term space can continue to open
ETH: Watch for catch-up near 2600, but also guard against profit-taking
Strategy: Being bullish is fine, but don’t chase highs; waiting for pullback confirmation is more comfortable
80,000 has already been broken
What’s truly worth watching next isn’t whether BTC can keep pushing, but:
Can 80,000 turn from a "breakthrough level" into a real "new support"?
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $XRP 7 days +53% breaking $1.52: 13-month long bear ends, South Korean bank + ETF dual resonance
$1.52, 7 days +53.1%, top in the entire network, up another +3% today. But such a sharp rise doesn’t come without cost; the faster the rise, the harsher the pullback. Breaking down three points:
ETF weekly inflow of $1.55 billion, highest since February 2026. Money is chasing, not lacking buyers. Structurally, the 50-day/100-day/200-day EMA all cluster between $1.157-$1.350, forming a strong support zone. Buyers step in on pullbacks here; only a break below means the rebound fails.
13-month long bear ends. The $3.66 high in July 2025 was rejected four times in the past 13 months; this time it broke out with volume. Additionally, South Korean banks adopting Ripple for cross-border payments (Asia Express front page) validates the institutional narrative.
RSI at 82 is already overbought. MACD is bullish, but price extension is intense, with a BTC correlation coefficient over 0.85. In other words, if BTC drops, XRP will definitely follow. This week’s BTC surge to $81K+ and $94K short squeeze triggered the move; the logic chain is BTC → XRP, not the other way around.
So overall, it’s a combination of institutional support and technical extension. $1.80-$2.00 is a dense area of trapped positions; short-term chasing is not recommended. Wait for a pullback to $1.35-$1.40 to see if support holds. Holding mid-term is fine; worst case is a pullback to EMA50 before planning next moves. Iran and Oman join forces! A temporary passage in the Strait of Hormuz emerges!
A joint statement by Iran and Oman reveals plans to establish a temporary joint maritime corridor in the Strait of Hormuz and implement a joint mine-clearing project, with the ultimate goal of a permanent passage and a clear future management approach, while inviting Persian Gulf coastal countries to participate in dialogue.
Key point: Iran chooses to cooperate with Oman to circumvent the US blockade, advancing a phased roadmap with clear steps, signaling a rare easing of geopolitical tensions.
Impact on the crypto market: Slightly positive. If the new passage is realized, the extreme expectation of "blockade cutting off oil" will fade → oil prices fall → inflation cools → pressure on the Federal Reserve eases, macro liquidity improves, benefiting BTC/ETH.
Core judgment: The opening of the temporary passage is not just a shipping route, but a breathing space for the crypto market. Although the framework is initially set and negotiations still have uncertainties, short-term sentiment recovery is expected.
$BTC $ETH
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ Here's the situation: the most interesting aspect of Bitcoin's recent rally might not be the price itself, but how the shorts are exiting. Market observations on August 25 show that futures open interest is declining, funding rates are not showing obvious overheating, yet the price continues to rise. This is quite different from a typical leverage frenzy. Usually, the higher the market goes, the more capital chases contracts, open interest and funding rates both rise, and eventually longs start stepping on each other. But this time, some short positions were forced to close first, and the market's leverage is actually contracting. Price goes up, positions go down — the picture is somewhat counterintuitive. The key to the short squeeze is not that there are many shorts, but that shorts originally believed the price wouldn't continue rising. When the price breaks through key levels, stop-losses and forced liquidations turn these positions into passive buy orders, which in turn add fuel to the rally. This process doesn't mean the market is always healthy, but it explains why prices can sometimes rise quickly without particularly exaggerated funding rates. What's even more noteworthy is that a decline in open interest doesn't automatically mean risk has disappeared. It could indicate that high leverage is exiting, or that traders are temporarily unwilling to chase prices further. What we need to watch next is whether spot demand can sustain this rally, and whether funding rates will suddenly spiral out of control when new positions re-enter the market. My own judgment is that this rally currently looks more like "shorts being cleaned out, longs haven't completely lost discipline yet," rather than a last frenzy after everyone rushes in. The former can continue, the latter usually calls for caution. So, when Bitcoin is rising, don't just focus on In the last four hours, only Coinbase has positive inflows; other platforms, especially Binance, have finally started to see negative inflows for Bitcoin.
It seems that at this price level, the zero-cost ancient whales in Asia and the US institutions have diverged.
Never overestimate how powerful US institutions are; in fact, the coins they hold are less than 10% of the total supply. They are just the currently active players but do not control the pricing power.
If it weren't for the Chen Zhi incident, I believe Bitcoin could have risen to 200,000 or even higher.
The problem is, if the zero-cost ancient whales decide to unload on a large scale, the US institutions, who are slow to react, once break below their cost line, can only cut losses, causing a spiral decline. Such events have become common from last October until today.
I believe that unless the Bitcoin price is low enough for Chinese private capital to acquire enough chips at a sufficiently low price, I don't think US institutions alone can withstand the selling pressure A CLEAR LIQUIDITY ROTATION IS PLAYING OUT BETWEEN CRYPTO AND US STOCKS TODAY.
The S&P 500 is up 0.26%, adding $240 billion to US stocks.
Bitcoin is down 3% from its day high, wiping out roughly $48 billion from its market cap.
Bitcoin started dumping at almost the exact moment US stock futures bottomed and reversed higher.
$BTC
#StrategyBuildsCash
#BTC80KHoldOrFold Shorting at this position indeed has a high cost-performance ratio, but I must be clear about what I'm actually betting on.
First, let me say where I don't bet—I don't bet that ETH or BTC will "crash." What I bet on is the correction after short-term extreme sentiment.
The data I see is as follows:
1. $BTC long-short ratio is 600%, which, in my past trading experience, belongs to the "danger zone" red line. Of course, I know there are hedging positions inside, but there are definitely many naked longs.
2. At the $BTC 83k level, when I drew the lines, I found it just pressing against two long-term moving averages on the weekly chart. The news was released exactly at this node with positive signals, the timing is too perfect. I don't believe in coincidences; I tend to think this is to cause short sellers to liquidate while giving longs the illusion of a "breakthrough," facilitating high-level position rotation.
3. I observed $ETH's position structure myself—contracts rising, fees soaring, but spot not that strong. This indicates a leverage-driven market, and the retreat is often much faster than the rise.
Finally, the phrase I keep telling myself is: when consensus is bullish, the market's tolerance for error is lowest. I don't need to predict the top; I just need to wait for the market to tell me "this is a barrier," then get on board, set stop losses properly, and leave the rest to probability.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 BTC surged about 24% last week, but Strategy didn't buy a single one.
What's even more unusual is that it sold about $2 billion worth of MSTR stock when the market picked up, but didn't immediately convert the money into BTC. Instead, it first built a $1.59 billion cash pool.
This doesn't mean Saylor suddenly turned bearish on BTC.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls ##StrategyBuildsCash 这场最狠的冲突，是看多闪迪、看空$ZEC 的两套逻辑可以同时成立，账户却依然被多空两边收割。价格先把闪迪多单打掉，又让ZEC空单承受快速拉升，真正击穿账户的不是单一方向，而是高杠杆、不断补仓和流动性错配叠在一起。
@天才少女秋秋 在直播中直接复盘，自己已经出现“闪迪多单亏、ZEC空单也亏”的局面，ZEC空单一度带走600多U。她对两个标的的中期判断并没有立刻反转：闪迪仍偏多，ZEC仍偏空；但市场用最残酷的方式说明，方向判断不能替代仓位管理。先被强平的人，就算最后看对，也没有资格等到逻辑兑现。
闪迪这边的问题，是把长期看多与短线入场混成了一件事。她认为闪迪在深跌后仍有反弹空间，盘中也多次表达偏多态度，但美股开盘后几十点来回扫，换手和波动明显放大。这样的盘面里，低位看多并不等于任何价格都适合追多，更不等于可以用高杠杆承受正常回撤。若开盘第一根K线没有给出方向，最合理的动作应是等结构稳定，而不是让预期先于价格。
ZEC则是另一种陷阱。秋秋始终把它视为高估值、高波动的山寨币，认为900附近多次受阻后，继续上冲的空间需要更强增量资金支持。这个偏空逻辑有依据，却不能直接推导出“现在就能重仓空Gold has also been rising recently, following the same logic as $BTC. The market is trading on the narrative of "dollar depreciation/U.S. fiscal credit discount."
The biggest contradiction is now very clear: the Treasury dislikes the high long-term interest rates and wants to push them down; but the Fed is concerned about high inflation and is currently unwilling to cooperate, even keeping the possibility of rate hikes.
So everyone is actually watching what Warsh will do next.
His actions will determine the market's major direction going forward.
If the Fed starts cooperating with the Treasury, stops raising rates, or even shifts to cutting rates while continuing to suppress long-term interest rates, it could truly be a super bull market for hard assets like gold and BTC.
Conversely, if the Fed remains hawkish or even raises rates, leaving the Treasury to solely support long-term debt, then this logic is not fully closed, and BTC is more likely to experience volatility or even a pullback first.
So, everyone should understand one thing: the real big market move won't start just because the Treasury acts, but when the Fed also begins to cooperate. Keep an eye on this news at all times.
Currently, with no good or bad news, the market might just be oscillating between 7.7 and 7.9.Traditional asset management institutions have moved U.S. tech stock portfolios onto smart contracts, quietly flattening the cross-market asset flow boundaries on-chain.
Tokenized U.S. tech stock portfolios focused on AI and technology themes have begun to support automatic rebalancing, compressing the distribution cycle of traditional ETF strategies to within a few days.
The demand for allocation in U.S. tech assets is extending outward, driving on-chain capital to seek portfolio tools directly linked to underlying equity.
When smart contracts take over the asset rebalancing logic, the U.S. stock risk exposure and on-chain liquidity establish an instant transmission channel.
If the regulatory environment can provide clear space for tokenized securities, the integration of traditional equity assets and on-chain asset management will rapidly absorb more incremental off-chain capital.
If compliance boundaries continue to tighten, the liquidity of on-chain thematic portfolios will be forced to retreat to restricted specific areas.
Stagnation in on-chain portfolio trading activity or long-term underlying discounts will directly falsify the expansion logic of traditional asset management on-chain.
In the near future, the regulatory agencies' stance on tokenized equity instruments will be the core variable to test whether this model can scale and be implemented.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径In August 2026, after months of silence, the cryptocurrency market experienced an unexpected strong rebound. Bitcoin $BTC suddenly surged after nearly two months of oscillating between $60,000 and $66,000, breaking through the $80,000 mark on August 25, reaching a three-month high. Ethereum $ETH performed even more impressively, climbing strongly from under $1,900 in mid-August to over $2,520, with a seven-day increase of 31.3%. Is this rebound the start of a new bull market, or just a short-lived pulse driven by short-covering? This article will analyze from three dimensions: driving factors, technical signals, and market divergences. 1. Triple Catalysts: Treasury Repo, Weakening Dollar, and Regulatory Expectations This rally was not driven by a single piece of news but by multiple positive factors resonating together. The primary catalyst came from the U.S. Treasury's bond repurchase operations. The Treasury announced increasing the long-term bond repurchase scale from about $2 billion each time to "no less than $4 billion," which the market interpreted as the U.S. government beginning to intervene more actively in the bond market to suppress long-term interest rate rises. After the announcement, long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened simultaneously, and both gold and Bitcoin rose, making "currency depreciation trades" a market focus again. Macro analyst Lyn Alden told CNBC that almost all indicators show the bottom has been reached, and with the Treasury and Federal Reserve shifting to financial repression policies, the bull market has returned. The second force came from continuous inflows into spot ETFs. Bitcoin spot ETFs in four