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73.929 $HYPE long, 50x, now 81.016. The core of this trade is not the technical aspect, but the sector rhythm — the sector to which HYPE belongs started ahead of the broader market that day, and 73.929 was exactly the follow-up entry point when the sector leader pulled back. Reviewing the trade shows: the pattern of the sector leader moving first and the followers moving later is fully confirmed in this trade.
After holding for about an hour, it reached 81.016 with substantial unrealized gains. However, the follow-up stocks' upward momentum is weaker than the leader's; usually, when the leader pauses, they drop. This is a common issue with sector rotation trades.
Subsequent handling: do not hold out with them; reduce position directly in the 81-82 range, and move the stop loss for the remaining position up to cost. The money made in sector rotation trades is from "being first," not from "late momentum." Next time with similar opportunities, only trade the leader, not the followers, or get on board after the leader is confirmed. $BTC $ETH South Korea's central bank raises interest rates for the second consecutive time! Global liquidity divergence, the market's hidden variable has arrived
$BTC South Korea's central bank has acted again! The benchmark interest rate has risen to 3.00%, tightening for the second time in two months, marking the first consecutive rate hikes in over three years.
Once the decision was made, the Korean won continued to strengthen, rising as much as 0.56% on the day. Since June, the won has surged over 12% in total.
Why is South Korea in such a hurry? Growth (GDP growth expected at 3.3% in 2026) is decent, but inflation remains above the 2% target, and exchange rate pressure is huge—three major burdens pressing down, so they have to hit the brakes.
But what’s really worth watching today is not South Korea, but the "divergence"
The market is still waiting for the U.S. to ease, while South Korea has already hit the brakes twice in a row.
On one side, global funds are trading on expectations of U.S. easing; on the other, Asian central banks, due to growth, exchange rate, and inflation pressures, are pushing funding costs in the opposite direction.
Global liquidity is not a broad easing but a severe split.
What does this mean for BTC?
1. Don’t expect a "global easing" resonance in the short term
One of the core logics behind BTC’s rise from 64,000 to 80,000 was the "easing expectation." Now South Korea’s rate hike proves: not all central banks are easing, liquidity stories have cracks, and U.S. expectations alone can’t support a full bull market.
2. The strength or weakness of the dollar is the real game changer
South Korea’s rate hike → stronger won → Asia-Pacific capital inflows/volatility, which may disturb risk appetite in the short term. But BTC’s pricing anchor remains the dollar + U.S. Treasury real yields. Whether the Fed eases or not is still the biggest variable; South Korea is a side story, not the main line.
3. Who turns first next is the big variable
The market is currently betting on U.S. easing, but if inflation fluctuates, the Fed holds steady, and Asia tightens, global liquidity will be tighter than anyone expects. This expectation gap is the powder keg for the next big risk asset volatility.
In summary
South Korea’s rate hike itself is not fatal, but it is the latest evidence that "global easing is not universal."
BTC’s real opponent has never been the South Korean central bank, but the shift in global liquidity expectations.
Next to watch closely: U.S. CPI, Fed speeches, dollar index—who eases first, who tightens first, that’s the hand that will decide the next wave’s direction. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Recently, the market has been discussing a question: Will AI Agents directly eliminate traditional SaaS? Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has come forward this time to say: There is no such thing as a so-called "SaaS end." Let's put it simply. SaaS is the software that companies pay for every month or year, such as Salesforce helping companies manage customers, sales, and after-sales. AI Agents are more like "AI employees who can do their own work"—if you tell them the goal, they can search for information, access software, handle customers, or even complete entire tasks. So the market worries: since AI can handle things on its own, will companies still need to buy so many traditional software accounts in the future? But Salesforce's latest financial report offers a different answer. Q2 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 11% year-on-year; More importantly, Agentforce and Data 360's annualized recurring revenue has approached $3.9 billion, up more than 210% year-on-year, and the company has also raised its full-year revenue forecast. In other words, AI has at least not swallowed Salesforce yet; instead, it is becoming its new source of growth. This is also Benioff's confidence in refuting the "SaaS end." AI agents may change the way we use software, but enterprise data, customer relationships, and workflows will not disappear into thin air. The future may just be "people pointing software"Reviewing historical data, BTC's volatility around the Jackson Hole Symposium is always significant. In 2023, Powell's speech was hawkish, and BTC dropped 5% that day; in 2024, the speech was dovish, and BTC rose 8% over the week. This time, with Wash's speech and PCE data holding steady, market expectations lean dovish. BTC current price is 78099, 24h amplitude 1742 points, rebounded 299 points from the low of 77800. Support and resistance levels verified by three methods: previous high 79542, round number resistance 80000, moving average resistance 79200; support at 78500/78000. Retail investors often heavily bet on direction before major events, which is a big taboo. I previously lost 200,000 U betting this way. Now opening a position with 5000 U, 5x leverage, stop loss at 77800, target 80000, risk-reward ratio 3:1, never hold a position without a stop loss. History won't simply repeat, but retail investors' mistakes always do. Don't let this speech become your liquidation anniversary. $BTC #USCorePCEStableMonthOverMonth, how will Wash's Jackson Hole speech set the tone?NVIDIA's earnings report exploded, but $BTC may not follow the rise! Why?
Q2 revenue was $96.22 billion, exceeding expectations;
Adjusted EPS was $2.22, also above expectations;
Data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year!
Q3 revenue guidance is directly set at $108 billion, also higher than expected.
The data is indeed impressive, so why didn't the stock take off with such a report? Because the market is no longer satisfied with just beating expectations.
NVIDIA's performance in recent quarters has been increasingly impressive, yet the stock price remains under pressure. For NVIDIA now, beating expectations has become the baseline.
There are three key points here:
First, can Rubin smoothly take over;
Second, how long can the massive AI capital expenditure continue;
Third, will rising storage costs like HBM and DRAM continue to squeeze gross margins.
These are the real answers behind this earnings report.
As for BTC, there's no need to try to rationalize its movement based on NVIDIA's stock price.
Because the correlation between BTC and NVDA is not as strong as before; BTC has its own ETF funds, liquidity, and capital logic.
Moreover, last night the PCE indicated a pessimistic outlook on rate cuts, while today NVIDIA stated AI demand is still strong. One is bullish, the other bearish. Next, let's watch for Wash's statement tomorrow.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 X Layer (OKX L2) Current Situation and Outlook
X Layer is currently in a phase of accelerated expansion, positioned as the "new infrastructure for on-chain finance." Technically, it has migrated from zkEVM to an enhanced version of OP Stack, with OKB as the sole Gas token (supply capped at about 21 million), and transaction fees are extremely low (approximately $0.0001–0.0005).
Key Data (August 2026)
• DeFi TVL surpassed $100 million (about 10x growth in half a year), with Aave + Uniswap as the main contributors
• Stablecoin supply exceeds $2 billion, with USDG accounting for a very high proportion
• Cumulative active addresses exceed 4.2 million, with over 400 million transactions
Core Narrative
Focus on pushing RWA (xStocks trading is active, often accounting for over 80% of trading volume) and Exchange OS (staking OKB allows deployment of spot/perpetual/prediction markets). Recently launched a $5 million RWA liquidity incentive, with the first round already implemented.
Advantages and Risks
Advantages include OKX traffic diversion + extremely low costs + deep integration with CeFi. Risks lie in the ecosystem still being early-stage, with growth highly dependent on incentives and parent company resources; real user retention and independent application deployment are key tests.
Personal View
Short-term (second half of this year) optimistic about continued momentum in RWA and trading scenarios. Medium to long-term cautiously optimistic—if incentive-driven traffic can be converted into long-term liquidity, there is a chance to become a distinctive on-chain financial infrastructure; otherwise, it may fall into the competitive dilemma of being an "exchange-affiliated chain."
Not investment advice; data changes rapidly, recommend continuous tracking of L2BEAT, DeFiLlama, and official updates. $SNDK Third scenario realization?
Yesterday's drop before the US stock market opened was actually a bear trap, making everyone think the market would continue to fall today. But after the US market opened, SanDisk perfectly matched Kai Ge's third scenario, blasting the shorts, breaking through 1500 with high volume at the open, and holding above 1500. Then, Nvidia's earnings report came out at midnight, pushing the price even higher.
The information Nvidia provided last night is very critical — fiscal year 2028 revenue is expected to grow about 70%, far exceeding the previous analyst expectation of 44%. The company also stated that actual demand growth has already exceeded 70%, even approaching 100%.
This means AI demand is not over; it is actually accelerating. As AI computing power increases, the demand for servers, storage, and data centers grows accordingly. This is why funds have returned to the semiconductor and storage sectors today.
As one of the leaders in the storage sector, SanDisk has directly wiped away the downturn and completely reversed sentiment. Today, the key focus is whether 1500 can hold. If it holds, I continue to expect strength to persist; if it doesn't, be cautious of a pullback after a rally.
Nvidia has reignited the AI sector, so can SanDisk leverage this momentum to break through previous highs? The real highlight is yet to come! 👇👇👇
This is my personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice! #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Coinbase teams up with Better to launch BTC mortgage down payment program
Coinbase and Better have opened a BTC mortgage down payment program to eligible homebuyers in the United States. It does not involve buying a house directly with BTC: borrowers do not need to sell their coins but must collateralize BTC worth at least 250% of the down payment loan.
A BTC price drop itself will not trigger a margin call; however, if repayment is overdue by 60 days, Better can liquidate the collateral.
This provides long-term holders with a financing option without selling their coins, but it is not a risk-free way to maintain upside exposure. The price risk of BTC does not disappear; it coexists with monthly repayment obligations. If cash flow issues arise, the collateralized BTC may be sold.
What changes is the financing method for holders, not BTC's payment attributes.
#Bitcoin #BTC #BTC突破80000美元, can it hold a new threshold? This round of BTC surged from over 60,000 to $81,235 (8/25, the first time in over three months above 80,000). Many attribute it to "short liquidation + rally chasing," but I want to point out a deeper logic—on August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced **doubling its purchase of long-term Treasuries** — that was the real match that ignited the rally. When fiscal signals "easing" are sent and the dollar weakens, "debasement trades" return: funds flow back into "scarce, non-sovereign" assets like gold and BTC to hedge fiat dilution. That's why this wave of BTC and gold strengthened simultaneously—it's not just a crypto internal competition, but a cross-asset "fiat credit repricing." Here are some notable figures: (1) From 8/17 to 8/21, the US spot BTC+ETH ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $2.6 billion, the strongest in 2026. BTC products accounted for about $1.92 billion, with IBIT contributing nearly 78% ($239 million in a single day on August 21); More importantly, on August 24 and August 25, inflows continued at $338 million and $314 million respectively, marking eight consecutive trading days of positive inflows—after the short squeeze, ETFs are still buying with real money, indicating spot demand is driven by leverageAfter the previous violent short squeeze, BTC has now entered a high-level turnover phase. After surging to touch 81,000, it has pulled back and is currently consolidating between 78,000 and 79,000. Many people are debating whether it can firmly hold above 80,000. My view is: do not blindly go long now, nor casually take heavy short positions.
Current Market Situation
This round of rally was driven by liquidity expectations from US Treasury repurchase operations, continuous ETF inflows, and short covering. However, short-term indicators have already entered a greedy zone. There is a large amount of selling pressure from positions being freed above 80,000-81,000. The bullish momentum from continuous rallies is clearly weakening, and every surge triggers profit-taking and selling pressure.
Two Scenario Analyses
Scenario One: Breakthrough Upward Again
Conditions: ETF maintains large net inflows, US Treasury yields do not rebound, and the pullback does not effectively break below 77,500. After holding above 80,000, the next target resistance is 82,000-83,000.
Scenario Two: Surge and Pullback
If ETF inflows rapidly shrink and macro expectations reverse, and 80,000 repeatedly fails to break, a round of correction will begin. The first support is 77,500-78,000. Once volume-driven break below 76,000 occurs, the short-term rebound structure will be damaged.
Do not chase highs.
If you want to go long, wait for a pullback to key support to stabilize before entering with a light position; if you want to short, do not top pick too early—consider it only if the 80,000 level fails to break.
Focus on two signals: ETF capital flow and 10-year US Treasury yield. These two are the core factors driving this market move. Do not simply watch the candlesticks to bet on direction.The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $2.61 trillion to $2.67 trillion, with a 24-hour change of about -2.15%. The total market 24-hour trading volume sharply dropped from $171.56 billion the previous day to $114.01 billion, a decline of about one-third.
Bitcoin $BTC is fluctuating narrowly in the $78,000-$79,000 range, failing to effectively break through the $80,000 mark. Ethereum $ETH is relatively strong, breaking through $2,500.
Short term: The market is in a "post-surge digestion phase" — Bitcoin holds above $78,000, but market breadth has sharply deteriorated, trading volume has halved, and many longs have been liquidated, indicating increased risk in chasing gains.
Medium term: Bitcoin's weekly gain still reaches 18%, ETFs continue to see inflows, institutional interest returns, and fundamental support remains intact. The market is digesting rather than reversing. Tomorrow (August 28), Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole will be a key catalyst.📊BTC Market Data Review｜23% Weekly Surge, This Rally Not Purely Driven by Contract Short Squeeze
This week BTC recorded a 23% weekly gain. Previously, the market was long shrouded in cautious sentiment, with short positions continuously accumulating. Then two rounds of large-scale liquidations directly shattered market expectations: $1.37B liquidated across the network on the 19th, and another $739M on the 21st, with short squeezes driving prices rapidly upward.
A noteworthy signal: after the high-leverage positions were cleaned out, the market did not immediately enter an aggressive re-leveraging phase.
Perpetual open interest fell back to 284,000 BTC, and the funding rate returned to a neutral range.
The contract leverage did not expand in sync, indicating that this rally is not solely driven by derivatives competing to push prices up; incremental spot buying provided the underlying support.
For the continuation of the trend, focus on the sustainability of spot capital inflows and changes in overall market leverage levels.$ZEC surged from 760 to 818 early this morning, retail investors must clearly understand this logic
The day before yesterday it dropped to 760. On the surface, the ETF's first-day trading volume was only 14.8 million, below expectations, short-term funds rushed out, and leveraged long positions were liquidated one after another, dropping 111 USD in one day.
But this kind of thing is too common in the crypto world—positive news turns into negative, just an emotional release.
The rebound to 818 last night happened because the market calmed down and realized that none of the fundamental logic supporting ZEC's bull run has been broken. This privacy coin ETF by Grayscale is the first of its kind in the US, with Coinbase custody and Jane Street as market maker; the compliant institutional entry channel has been opened. Grayscale's parent company DCG is also rumored to inject 200,000 ZEC, and the ETF approval won't be overturned just because the first-day trading volume was modest.
Looking at the technical side, the NU7 upgrade voting has started, smoothing issuance and reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, all substantial improvements. More importantly, the Ironwood upgrade completely fixed the May vulnerability, with old pools frozen and new pools mathematically verified line by line—this is the hardcore trump card institutions dare to heavily invest in.
My personal judgment:
The rebound from 760 to 818 means the market is saying "The ETF has landed, but the story is far from over." However, the current long positions are crowded, so a short-term pullback to shake out weak hands is highly likely. Retail investors should not rush to chase; consider waiting for a pullback near 780 for a safer entry.
Just like some previous altcoin ETFs that fell first then rose after approval, the script often repeats. #XRP leads crypto market down nearly 7% #Dollar hits largest gain in nearly four weeks $AAOI's post-market surge to $118 indicates buyers are attempting to repair the structure, but the $600 million ATM offering has suppressed the momentum to break through the 52-week high of $233. The core conflict centers on the pace of Q3 revenue guidance between $255 million and $290 million landing versus the valuation pressure from equity dilution.
The current stock price closes at $113.8, having risen from the 52-week low of $18.5, with a YTD gain exceeding 220%, but it remains in a wide consolidation phase digesting the May high of $233. The post-market price rising above $118 triggers a short-term reshuffling of chips within the pullback range.
In terms of driving factors, the doubling of 800G shipments and Q2 revenue of $192 million (up 86% YoY) establish a performance baseline. Texas capacity expansion locks in the delivery capability of 650,000 units per month by year-end, while the dilution expectation caused by the $600 million ATM offering is the main factor suppressing the slope.
If the upward scenario initiates, the price needs to solidify chips around $118 and test higher resistance. The premise is that Q3 revenue reaches the upper guidance of $290 million, and the 1.6T capacity ramp-up progress eliminates the valuation discount caused by the offering. The signal of this scenario failing is intraday turnover expanding without volume and failure to close above $118.
If the downward scenario triggers, selling pressure from the ATM offering will dominate the trend, and the price may test and break the $113.8 support zone. Trigger conditions include production ramp-up delays or bottlenecks in 800G delivery, causing deviation from the $1.1 billion full-year revenue target. Once $113.8 is broken with sustained volume contraction, the downward structure will be confirmed.
Peers $LITE trade near $939 with YTD gains over 150%, $COHR is at $294, and the sector overall remains buoyant but with increased volatility. The failure point of the overall bullish structure is set at the key support of $113.8; daily closes consistently below this level would indicate a phase reversal of the prior 220% uptrend.
The most critical observation variables over the next 7 days are the strength of the $118 post-market gains during regular trading hours and the actual execution pace of the $600 million ATM offering.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 Hyperliquid activated a new mechanism yesterday: 90% of the earnings from approximately $5 billion in reserves will be automatically used to buy back HYPE, with the first execution on October 3; the platform's daily fees are about $6.5 million, which is the buyback fund.
However, on August 29, about 14.18 million HYPE tokens were unlocked, worth approximately $1.2 billion at the current price, nearly half of which went to early investors. The buyback funds will arrive in October, but the unlocked tokens will circulate by the end of the month, meaning the directions are opposite and the timing is staggered.
The real test comes after the unlock: how many tokens will enter exchanges.
On the same day, Uniswap confirmed the activation of the v4 fee switch, where about one-sixth of the trading fees are used to buy and burn UNI. The daily protocol revenue increased from $114,000 to about $325,000. Two leading DeFi platforms implemented "revenue → buyback" on the same day.
The headwind is macroeconomic: US July PCE year-over-year rose 3.7%, slightly above expectations, and the market's pricing for a September rate hike rose to 42%. Bitcoin fell from above 81,000 to around 78,000. Before the Fed Chair's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, interest rate expectations remain a variable.
Next, watch three things: exchange inflows of HYPE within 48 hours after unlocking, the actual daily UNI burn amount, and whether the Jackson Hole speech provides a policy path.$XPL listened to advice and shorted down to 0.02. Do you still dare to bottom-fish this coin? The project team looks down on you. This is not a dump at all, you know? The project team’s support rate for this token is almost zero. It’s not a real cash buyback but a release of reward xpl, endless and infinite selling pressure. Which market maker dares to move? This is also why the peak was right at the opening. I bottom-fished from 0.6 to 0.4, then after communicating with a group of big shots on TG for a long time, I directly cut losses and switched to shorting. Now everything has long since come back.NVIDIA's earnings report is out, and Hynix is really frustrating right now 😭
Stayed up until dawn last night to finish watching NVIDIA $NVDA's earnings report, feeling quite conflicted after.
Objectively, the earnings data looks great, with revenue and next quarter guidance all exceeding market expectations. The after-hours trading followed the usual script: a plunge at first, then a strong rebound.
At least one thing is confirmed: the overall demand for AI computing power hasn't collapsed, the big foundation is stable.
But there's a very key point many people overlook.
Throughout the entire call, they never clearly confirmed the HBM memory specs for the next-generation GPU.
There have been rumors about possible downgrades, which is the biggest hidden risk hanging over Hynix, like a stone suspended in midair, not fully settled yet.
Back to Hynix $SKHY itself.
The fundamentals are indeed strong, profits have surged significantly, and HBM orders are basically fully booked, with Hynix taking the largest share of this pie.
But the awkward part is, these good news have already been largely priced into the stock.
Those who have traded Hynix recently should deeply feel this stock is especially torturous right now.
Often it strengthens before the market opens, then plunges sharply right at the open; if it weakens pre-market, it tends to bottom out and pull up.
Stop losses on both long and short sides get triggered repeatedly, whether you hold long or short, the experience is very poor.
Now that the shoe has dropped, the reality is:
The mid-to-long-term logic hasn't been disproven by the earnings report, so no need to be completely pessimistic.
But don't expect a single earnings report to trigger a huge, spectacular rally.
There are a lot of profit-taking positions piled up at high levels, and many trapped positions waiting to be freed above, so any slight rebound will see funds cashing out and running.
Most likely, the stock will either:
- Keep oscillating within a range, churning shares back and forth;
- Or see funds fleeing after good news is realized, retesting support again.
Honestly, a reminder: don't get overheated and rush in just because the earnings beat expectations.
The uncertainty around HBM specs remains, and future volatility will only increase.
Especially when trading contracts, be sure to manage your position size carefully; in this kind of high-frequency spike market, stop losses can easily be triggered unfairly.
👉 Just want to ask everyone, are you currently long or short? Do you think storage can still start a new major uptrend? Brothers and sisters, the big coin $BTC is hovering around $78,000 today, with a slight drop of less than 1% in 24 hours, which is a normal breather after last week's sharp surge from $63,800 to $81,200.
It has risen more than 22% this week, so it's normal for short-term traders to take profits; don't panic at every pullback. The key point is that spot ETFs have had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, with $314 million absorbed just on Tuesday, and over $3 billion accumulated in August. BlackRock's IBIT alone took the lion's share. What does this mean? Institutions are not just talking bullish; they are buying with real money, which is completely different from pure leveraged rallies.
The technical side is a bit stretched, with the daily RSI above 84, indicating severe overbought conditions, so high-level oscillation is not surprising. The strong resistance is between $80,000 and $82,500, with short-term support at $76,900 and further down at $75,700. This round of rally from $63,800 to over $80,000 in 21 days was driven by $4 billion worth of short positions being squeezed out, combined with continuous ETF buying—a combination of macro liquidity adding positions and short squeeze.
Whether it can hold above $80,000 next depends on real buying power, not just short sellers being squeezed out. My personal view is that the structure is intact, but chasing highs has average cost-effectiveness; it's more comfortable to consider adding positions after a pullback to key support. Don't forget the August options expiration and Jackson Hole are just around the corner, so volatility will only get more intense. Control your hands and save some bullets; that's better than anything else.$BICO: Short it, wait for the waterfall!
Core reasoning logic is as follows:
1. Token valuation ceiling: 100% full circulation means complete transparency on the supply side, with no expectation gap from future unlocks. Lacking new narratives to bring in external incremental funds, relying solely on speculative trading within the market naturally limits its explosive potential. A 20%-30% rise easily hits resistance levels where major players cash out.
2. Bottom-tier chip structure: According to the "smart money" data in the screenshot, short positions held by major players reach 2.14 million U, while longs are only 1.32 million U. The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 61.41%, and shorts are heavily underwater (-185,000 U), indicating shorts are aggressively holding against the trend; although longs have a high profit ratio (66%), their position size is small, typical of "false strength."
3. Negative fee "trap" mechanism: The current extreme negative fee rate of -1.898% is a "tool" used by major players to lure retail investors into going long. The major players use this high fee subsidy as bait to create a false appearance of market strength, forcing retail investors to chase highs despite high long costs, making them liquidity takers at the peak.
4. Waterfall expectation: The long margin of only 1.32 million U cannot withstand the selling pressure of 100% circulating supply. Once the negative fee harvesting cycle ends (countdown over 5 hours), long funds will be exhausted, and major players will close shorts and aggressively dump, causing the market to quickly reveal its true form and return to its real value range.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Over the past week, Bitcoin's narrative focus has quietly shifted from price charts to capital flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of over $2 billion in just five trading days, marking a rare wave of intensive accumulation in the past decade. What is noteworthy is not the figure itself, but where it occurred—Bitcoin is not at the low point after a deep drop, but is approaching a key resistance zone after a strong rebound. This "high-level acceptance" pattern forces the market to re-examine institutional capital's true intentions. We cannot know the exact strategy of each fund, but capital behavior itself sends a clear signal: even when prices are no longer cheap, large capital is still willing to increase exposure within this range. This at least indicates that the current price is still within an acceptable value range for some institutions, or that they are positioning for longer cycles. Compared to single-day fluctuations, this sustained inflow trend often better reflects the true attitude of professional capital. If you only look at candlesticks, market sentiment is easily swayed by red and green candlesticks. But the significance of ETF flows lies in providing a calmer dimension for observation. If Bitcoin experiences a pullback in the future and institutional inflows remain resilient, it likely means large funds are accumulating shares through volatility rather than panicking out. Conversely, if prices repeatedly struggle at resistance levels while inflow data shrinks simultaneously, that is the real warning of weakening demand momentum. Therefore, rather than a single inflow peak, I pay more attention to the slope and persistence of the flow curve. Currently, above $80,000The market these past few days has actually been quite interesting. On the surface, it seems calm, but beneath the surface, the breathing rhythms of different sectors are completely different. Today, I want to share some of my observations on the current market structure, focusing on two easily overlooked dimensions: liquidity and volatility. Let's start with Bitcoin. As the stabilizing anchor of the entire market, its 24-hour total turnover across the entire network has remained stable between 70 billion and 110 billion USD, which speaks volumes. Daily volatility is roughly between 1.5% and 3.5%, and even in extreme news, single-day fluctuations rarely exceed 8%. The advantage of this scale is that when panic selling occurs in the market, Bitcoin tends to absorb the strongest bottom-fishing funds. Its current trend is mostly driven by macro variables such as inflows and outflows from US ETFs, US Treasury yields, and regulatory policies. Events like Nvidia's earnings report, though occasionally causing brief emotional turmoil, basically cannot change the medium-term trend. Ethereum presents a different picture. Its total network turnover is about $35 billion to $50 billion, but intraday volatility is significantly wider, typically between 2% and 5%, and in extreme market conditions, it can even reach 8% to 12%. This high Beta attribute means that when risk appetite rebounds, ETH is more resilient than Bitcoin; But once US tech stocks weaken, the impact is even more direct. Currently, the $2550 area is a key resistance level; if it enters a liquidation-intensive zone, it could further amplify the downward amplitude. Looking further into the middle tier, SOL and ZEC are among those with independent value$AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics): Closed around $113.8 (+0.5%), rising to over $118 in after-hours trading. YTD up more than 220%, 52-week low at $18.5, with a high reaching $233 (in May). Recently pulled back due to a $600 million ATM issuance plan, but Q2 revenue was $192 million (+86% YoY), 800G shipments doubled, Q3 guidance $255-290 million, with a full-year target of about $1.1 billion. Accelerating expansion in Texas, targeting AI data center 1.6T demand, with a year-end capacity goal of 650,000 units per month.
Peer performance:
$LITE (Lumentum) around $939, recently strongly rebounded, clearly benefiting from AI lasers/optical chips, YTD up over 150%.
$COHR (Coherent) around $294, data center business growing rapidly, supported by Nvidia, but with high volatility.
The overall sector is driven by AI computing power optical interconnects (800G→1.6T, CPO), with demand far exceeding capacity, and both Chinese and US supply chains are prosperous. In the short term, watch for dilution from issuance and valuation digestion; mid-to-long term logic remains strong. Focus on expansion implementation! #Lumentum营收翻倍，AI光通信需求延续 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Overnight, the full US July PCE data was released, overall stronger than expected!
PCE year-on-year at 3.7% exceeded market expectations, core PCE year-on-year remained flat at 3.3%, showing no signs of inflation stickiness fading.
Once the data came out, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields both strengthened simultaneously. The market immediately raised the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 42%, bringing back concerns about tightening liquidity. But note, the Fear and Greed Index has already surged to 80, an extreme greed zone, making the risk-reward ratio for chasing $BTC $ETH very poor.
For gold, the data is bearish. London gold briefly fell below $4590 overnight and is now barely stabilizing around $4610. It is difficult for it to rally strongly in the short term; it is more likely to face pressure and fluctuate. Do not blindly chase longs.
Focus on tonight’s official opening of the Jackson Hole annual meeting and tomorrow night’s Powell keynote speech. This is the most important policy guidance window before the September FOMC.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 最近关于特朗普相关代币的讨论又热闹起来，但热闹背后藏着不少值得细想的信号。有人晒出做空战绩，说得头头是道，咱们不妨把里面的信息拆开看看。 这枚代币的走势确实够戏剧性。上线交易所当天就冲到八十美元以上，随后一年里一路阴跌，最低砸到过一点三美元。最近因为一则假消息，价格又从谷底反弹到接近三美元，让不少人以为行情稳住了。可就在两点九美元附近，有交易者果断加仓做空，还专门强调自己看得“透彻”，认为这种靠情绪和消息面撑起来的币，收割起来根本没有上限。 乍一听挺有道理，但仔细琢磨，这种笃定其实带着风险。假消息能瞬间拉高价格，说明市场情绪依然敏感，资金随时可能借题发挥。做空最怕的不是价格高，而是价格在利空出尽后突然反转。那位交易者把均价挂在二点五二美元，确实比现价低不少，但前提是价格真能如他所愿继续回落，否则浮亏会随着每一次反弹不断放大。 他还晒了另一笔单子，做空大零币，均价设在七百七十七美元。昨天价格从八百五十美元掉下来，他松了口气，目标先看六百五十美元，打算一步步吃。这个思路更接近传统做空逻辑，毕竟大零币属于老牌币种，市场热度有限，流动性也不算充裕。但问题是，这类币的波动往往更依赖大盘脸色，如果$CVX $OKTA
CVX: Current price 2.416, 24h +18.08%, pulled up from 2.28 to 2.491 then retreated, range in the last two hours 2.384—2.457. After a 15-minute spike, volume contracted, fee rate +0.0011%, OI $442,400; more like a pull-up followed by profit-taking, cannot conclude if new longs or short covering. Convex aggregates Curve/Frax liquidity and governance, CVX can be staked for dividends and voting participation. No confirmed recent catalysts, watching 2.384 support and 2.491 volume breakout. Risks include weakening ecosystem fees and thin liquidity spikes.
OKTA: Current price 157.81, 24h +20.86%, intraday 127.35—162.79, after a spike retreated to 153.20—158.64. Fee rate -1.00%, OI $397,900, price rise with extreme negative fee rate looks more like short covering, this is an inference. It tracks Okta Inc. OKX stock perpetual, not a crypto token; the company provides employee, customer, and AI identity security. The company confirmed FY2027 Q2 earnings release on August 26, watch performance, guidance, and US stock spot, cannot attribute this rally to that. Losing 153.20 risks pullback; low OI can amplify slippage. ⚠️
#CVX #OKTA #DeFi #StockPerpetual#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Good morning everyone!
$BTC BTC inflation neither exploded nor declined beyond expectations; rate cut expectations remain delayed, US Treasury yields fluctuate, macro environment is neutral. From inflation data → Fed speeches, ETF fund flows, US crypto policies 82000‑84000 76000‑78000 no unilateral drive, high-level range oscillation; institutional base positions stable, main liquidation from leveraged positions, lacking strong catalysts makes it hard to break new highs directly
$ETH ETH neutral macro cannot offset high interest rate environment; US Treasury yields remain high, staking yields relatively suppressed. Regulatory rulings, L2 value capture ability, ETH/BTC price ratio Benchmark BTC price pressure range Follow BTC support range Mainly follow the overall market; ecosystem narratives have speculative windows but hard to have independent rallies; once turning bearish, retracement larger than BTC
$SOL SOL “Not bad, but not enough to explode,” no macro downside to crash, but no strong liquidity easing dividend either. On-chain hotspots, on-exchange speculative sentiment, overall market risk appetite Previous phase highs Follow strong market support Only suitable for pulse-style short-term trading; insufficient incremental external funds, market relies on internal funds self-circulation; if Fed releases hawkish signals, will be sold off first with largest retracement
Core conclusions
1. After PCE release, macro tail risks temporarily lifted, but incremental positives missing, no longer the main driver of the market.
2. Next market triggers depend on Jackson Hole meeting statements + US crypto-related policies.
3. Risk preference order: BTC (oscillating defense) > ETH (speculative price ratio repair) > SOL (local hotspot speculation, highest risk).
4. In a neutral environment, high elasticity coins should not expect trend-driven rallies, most hotspots are short-term pulses. #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码
The US-Iran drama has a new plot twist: negotiating while fighting, both sides not missing a beat.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold. Short-term sentiment has basically been digested; sanctions didn't trigger a surge in oil prices, and Bitcoin actually fell from 81,000 to around 79,000, giving the market a breather. But digital assets have now been included in the secondary sanctions scope, with on-chain settlements and transactions coming under scrutiny.
In the medium term, uncertainty remains. A temporary corridor is still just temporary, and sanctions are intensifying. Ships can pass, but whether the oil can be sold or the money recovered is a completely different matter. Iran still holds the Strait card; if really hurt, it’s not impossible for them to retaliate by blocking it.
Here’s my take: Iran signing the agreement is about regaining the initiative, not conceding. The US is ramping up sanctions, Iran is using the Strait as leverage, and these two forces are tugging at oil prices. Short-term market sentiment is relatively stable, but the real turning point will be the CLARITY Act vote on September 15, so patience is key.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE In the current context of liquidity shortage, the "two-way kill by market makers" is an inevitable choice for stock game and market makers (including major players) to obtain liquidity and profits. The upcoming 2026 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting this Friday will directly determine the subsequent lifeline of funds in the crypto circle by releasing signals on macro monetary policy and financial innovation.
1. Why do market makers go crazy with "back-and-forth kills" when liquidity shrinks? As you have observed, the average daily spot trading volume and liquidity in the crypto circle in 2026 have indeed dropped significantly compared to the peak in 2025 (in some phases shrinking by nearly 30% to 70%). During the liquidity drought period of "lack of money and new retail investors," the behavior logic of major players has fundamentally changed.
From "following trends" to "cutting stock": In the 2025 bull market, funds were abundant, and major players attracted external funds to take over by pushing up coin prices (making money from trends). In 2026, due to the lack of external incremental funds, the market has become a zero-sum or even negative-sum game. Major players cannot launch unilateral big moves and can only repeatedly spike within key oscillation ranges (such as Ethereum ETH around $2500) to harvest contract positions of long and short leverage inside the market (making money from fees and liquidation orders).
Using the "liquidity black hole" for precise blasts: $2500 is currently an important psychological and technical dense defense level for ETH. Because of poor liquidity, the market's order book depth is very thin. This means major players only need to use much less capital than before to easily smash the price up or down by hundreds of points in "spike" moves.
The "two-way kill" mechanism to lure the enemy in: When ETH falls below 2500, retail investors panic to short or stop loss on longs, and major players absorb liquidity by buying at the bottom, then quickly pull back. When ETH rises above 2500, retail investors aggressively chase longs or get liquidated on shorts, and major players short at the high and smash the price down. The essence of this back-and-forth wash is not about direction but to eliminate high leverage and force retail investors to surrender bloodied chips.
The globally watched 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held from August 27 to 29. This year's theme is very special—"Financial Innovation: Impact on Payments and Policy."
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver a heavyweight keynote speech Friday morning, which will cause shocks in two major dimensions in the circle:
1. Expectations for changes in the "main gate" of macro liquidity (conventional core) interest rates and inflation tone: The market is extremely sensitive to the Fed's interest rate path. If Warsh shows a dovish stance in Friday's speech (implying accelerated rate cuts and liquidity release in the future), it will directly benefit risk assets, and the crypto circle may take this opportunity to firmly hold Ethereum $2500 and launch an upward breakthrough.
If hawkish or ambiguous: If signals are released that inflation remains sticky and high rates must be maintained, the already dry financial market liquidity will be further drained, and the crypto circle may face a new round of slow decline or severe crash due to "bleeding."
Policy tone and compliance catalyst: The newly appointed Warsh himself has deep ties in blockchain and DeFi fields (his public investment portfolio included multiple crypto protocols). The market highly expects him to mention the regulatory direction of US stablecoin legislation (such as the advancement of the GENIUS Act) in Friday's speech.
Signal for compliant funds entering: If the meeting releases favorable policy defenses for programmable dollars or compliant stablecoins, it will introduce a continuous influx of traditional financial institutional giants into the currently depleted crypto circle (such as large US banks entering stablecoin issuance). This is often the only solution to end the current "stock two-way kill" adverse situation. $ETH $BTC
In short, not gambling is winning.The stronger Nvidia's earnings report, the more AI trading enters a "nitpicking stage"
In the past, the market only needed one phrase: demand explosion. Now that's no longer enough. Revenue beating expectations, strong orders, and continued growth in data centers—these have all been anticipated. What truly affects valuation are the less glamorous details like gross margin, memory costs, customer concentration, and capital expenditure returns.
Marvell is also under scrutiny because it represents another layer of the AI infrastructure answer: custom chips, networking, and data center connectivity—can it spread Nvidia's momentum across a broader industry chain?
The harshest aspect of this AI cycle is that even good news is being dissected and questioned. The market no longer just listens to stories; it starts asking: when will the money spent turn into real cash back?
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Core PCE is flat; the most frustrating thing is not that inflation hasn't exploded, but that it is stuck like this.
The market actually fears this kind of data the most: it's not bad enough to force the Fed to act immediately, nor good enough to let risk assets celebrate freely. Core inflation is still clearly above target, and the GDP revision shows the economy isn't that weak, so at Jackson Hole, Walsh can't just say "rate cuts are coming soon."
For assets like BTC, what matters most isn't a single month's data, but whether the policy path has become clear. The awkward situation now is: inflation persists, growth hasn't collapsed, and the bond market is not convinced.
So this time, I'm more concerned about how he sets the tone. If he continues to be vague, the market will keep guessing on its own, and one wrong guess will cause a round of volatility.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #PCEToJacksonHole July core PCE came in exactly as expected: 3.3% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Inflation didn’t accelerate, but it also didn’t give the Fed much reason to relax 😮💨
At the same time, Q2 GDP growth held at just 1.5% annualized. That combination feels awkward—price pressures remain above target while growth is already losing momentum.
What caught my attention is that September hike odds still edged higher. The data itself wasn’t especially hawkish, but without a clearer policy framework, markets seem to be treating uncertainty as a reason for caution 📊
That makes Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks on Friday more important than usual. I’m less interested in whether he sounds “hawkish” or “dovish” and more interested in how he weighs inflation against weaker growth and jobs.
Right now, the numbers support patience—but they don’t make the decision easy.#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
The Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chair are each playing their own tune. How will this tug-of-war between debt and inflation ultimately play out?
Besant is conducting long-term bond buybacks at the Treasury, aiming to pull down the soaring US Treasury yields, while the Fed under Waugh insists on respecting market pricing and firmly fighting inflation.
Faced with a US Treasury market stockpile worth tens of trillions of dollars, an additional quarterly buyback of billions is nothing more than a drop in the bucket. Using a mechanism originally meant to supplement liquidity for price intervention exacerbates the risk of borrowing short and lending long. If inflation forces the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the Treasury's interest costs will actually soar even faster.
Waugh's Achilles' heel: credibility and signaling
Waugh advocates letting the market price autonomously. If the Treasury forcibly intervenes, market signals get distorted, making it difficult for the Fed to make decisions.
If Waugh compromises with the administration, the market will perceive the Fed as losing its independence, demanding higher risk premiums and pushing up long-term rates. If he insists on a hawkish stance against inflation, it will directly undermine the Treasury's position.
Market outlook
Fiscal intervention will quickly lose effectiveness.
Without deficit reduction, any buying intervention will be overwhelmed by market selling pressure.
Waugh will play Tai Chi.
In his Jackson Hole speech, he will likely reaffirm the anti-inflation stance to preserve credibility, shifting the pressure to cut rates back to fiscal budget cuts.
Hard assets continue to rally.
Gold and cryptocurrencies are strengthening, reflecting capital betting on currency depreciation and fiscal mismanagement. As long as inflation doesn't come down, this awkward tug-of-war between the central bank and the Treasury will persist. BTC is repeatedly bouncing around $78,770, with the overall market cap stabilizing at $2.73 trillion. This position is critical because it is stuck in a sensitive zone where bulls and bears intersect. Above, a large number of short liquidation orders have accumulated in the 80,000 to 81,500 range. If volume surges above $80,000, it could trigger a round of bear squeeze, driving price momentum upward. Below, between 77,000 and 79,000, dense long leveraged positions lie underway. If the $78,000 support is breached, those high-leverage buyers may face concentrated liquidations, and the decline could actually outpace the rise. Therefore, the current narrow range between 78,000 and 79,000 has become the real battleground for bulls and bears. 🪑 The direct driver of the rebound in risk appetite is the rapid cooling of geopolitical tensions. According to Russian media reports, the U.S. and Iran are expected to resume negotiations, with both sides reaching preliminary consensus on key ceasefire terms, which may be officially announced in the coming days. After the news broke, the market's pricing of geopolitical risks was significantly lowered, with crude oil prices dropping nearly 2% to $80.47 per barrel. The decline in oil prices is usually seen as a signal of easing inflationary pressures, which also provides emotional support for risk assets. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks strengthened across the board, with crypto-related stocks performing particularly well. Robinhood rose over 8% in a single day, indicating capital interest in high-risk assetsNVIDIA's “Sweet Problem” — It's not that products can't be sold, it's that there aren't enough products to sell
On the recent earnings night, NVIDIA experienced a rollercoaster.
After-hours, the stock once dropped 3%, then instantly surged 5%.
What happened? It wasn't a bad earnings report — Q2 revenue was $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year, with accelerated growth for four consecutive quarters.
It was CFO Colette Kress who ignited the market with one sentence during the call —
"Fiscal 2028 revenue growth of about 70%."
Previously, analysts expected only 44%.
But even more explosive was the next sentence: "Customer forecasts show growth will double next year."
To translate: customers want 100% of the products, but NVIDIA can only supply 70%.
A 30% demand gap corresponds to about a $200 billion revenue shortfall.
Jensen Huang added: "Without supply constraints, the outlook would be much higher."
This is not a demand issue; it's a capacity issue.
Why is supply so tight? Three reasons:
First, memory prices have gone crazy.
NVIDIA is facing an "extreme high memory price" situation. Compared to the previous generation, Vera Rubin's overall cost rose 2.1 times, with memory costs soaring 2.5 times. The HBM4 memory on a Rubin GPU costs as much as $4,943, accounting for 53.4% of the chip cost.
Global HBM capacity is almost monopolized by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The entire 2026 HBM capacity has been bought out by customers, with core customers even locked in through 2028.
Jensen Huang already warned in June in South Korea: memory shortages are not short-term fluctuations but a structural industry dilemma lasting years.
Second, Vera Rubin is fully ramped up, but the entire supply chain is running at full capacity.
Vera Rubin began production and shipment in early August. Huang said this is NVIDIA's "fastest product ramp in history."
But the problem is — everyone is running at full throttle. It's not a single bottleneck; the entire chain is under pressure.
Third, the CFO personally confirmed: supply will remain a bottleneck at least through fiscal 2028.
Not next quarter, not next year — a full two years.
What investment opportunities does this represent?
Memory chip suppliers are the biggest winners.
SanDisk, SK Hynix, Micron — whoever controls HBM capacity holds pricing power.
NVIDIA itself has already spent $145 billion locking in the supply chain. In this industry where "a shortage of one component can disrupt production," those who can lock in supply early are the ultimate winners.
Any technology that can alleviate the memory bottleneck — such as HBF — will command a premium.
NVIDIA's "problem" is the kind every CEO in the world wishes to have —
Not that products can't be sold, but that there aren't enough products to sell.
$SNDK $SKHY $NVDA #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 On the same night, Jensen Huang said "demand doubled," while Burry said "bubble peak" — who do you believe?
Last night after the US stock market closed, two magical things happened.
First, Nvidia released its earnings report.
Quarterly revenue was 96.2 billion USD, doubling year-over-year. After hours, the stock price went from down 3% to up 5%. Jensen Huang stood on stage and said: We have never given guidance a year in advance, but we are confident in 70% growth for fiscal year 2028.
Then he added — "The real demand growth rate far exceeds 100%, 70% is just the result of supply constraints."
To translate: it’s not that no one is buying, it’s that I can’t produce enough.
AWS has already confirmed deploying 2 million new GPUs in 2027-2028. The top five customers’ capital expenditures jumped from 800 billion to 1.3 trillion.
On the demand side, it’s truly crazy.
Second, on the same day, "big short" Michael Burry disclosed his positions.
He bought Nvidia call options as a hedge while increasing his short position on Nvidia. He also increased shorts on Oracle, Palantir, Nebius, and Caterpillar.
Burry’s short stock positions exceed 21% of his portfolio, not counting deep out-of-the-money put options.
He said: Nvidia’s "theoretical valuation is far below the current market price," and AI profit contraction could be "shocking."
So here’s the question: on the same night, two of the smartest people gave completely opposite answers.
Jensen Huang says demand doubled — Burry says bubble peak.
Jensen Huang says the AI inflection point has arrived — Burry says this is no different from the 2000 internet bubble.
Who is right?
My judgment is — both are right.
Jensen Huang is looking at a 12-24 month demand explosion. AWS’s orders are there, customers’ money has already been transferred, this is not wishful thinking.
Burry is looking at a 3-5 year profit margin reversion. Nvidia’s top five customers account for 70% of accounts receivable, concentration risk is indeed rising. Monopoly rents can’t last forever.
One is saying "how good it is now," the other is reminding "there is always risk."
Isn’t this the eternal debate in the BTC market?
"Institutions are buying, ETFs are flowing in" — true.
"Post-halving miner sell pressure, macro uncertainty" — also true.
Both narratives can coexist; the key is your holding period.
Day traders listen to Jensen Huang, monthly traders listen to Burry.
Mature investors listen to both.
$BTC $xNVDA #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 NVIDIA's Q2 earnings report has reignited the AI fire.
Revenue doubled year-over-year to $96.2 billion, net profit reached $59.7 billion, with a gross margin of 75%. The data center alone generated $89 billion. Even more impressive, NVIDIA provided its first-ever guidance of 70% growth for fiscal year 2028, and Q3 revenue is directly guided to hit $100 billion. Jensen Huang said, "AI has reached a turning point and is doing useful work."
But don't just look at NVIDIA taking the lion's share; the real signal from this earnings season is that AI has moved from "storytelling" to "accounting period."
Google Cloud revenue grew 82%, Microsoft Azure up 43%, and Anthropic turned profitable for the first time—AI is starting to generate returns. On the other hand, the giants' free cash flow is collectively under pressure: Alphabet's quarterly CapEx is $44.9 billion, Tencent's $52.8 billion surged 176% year-over-year, Alibaba $67.7 billion, and Amazon has had negative free cash flow of $7.6 billion for 12 consecutive months. Money has been poured in, but when will it pay off? Alibaba says 3 years, maybe even 2.
Personal view: NVIDIA selling the shovels is the safest bet; but the cloud providers buying the shovels are already diverging. Google Cloud and Azure are realizing returns, while domestic providers are still in the money-burning phase, so don't treat them all the same. The AI application layer is just getting started; Anthropic's profitability shows large models can make money, but most applications are still burning cash. The next few quarters will be a real test.
In the short term, the AI computing power chain still has momentum. In the medium to long term, the real winners are companies that can turn computing power into revenue. Those who just burn money without delivering returns will eventually be abandoned by the market #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Today, an interesting market structure emerged: BTC was still trading sideways at $79,000, but SOL had regained the $100 level, and ETH had broken through $2,500 again. Among the three confirmation conditions I focused on yesterday, SOL has completed its first recovery, but BTC has yet to hold above $80,000, and ETF growth has clearly slowed. So today's core is not a "bull market restart," but rather: funds have started trying high beta rotation again, but BTC has yet to confirm a breakout. 1️⃣ 🚀 SOL has climbed back above $100 and once again become the leading mainstream coin gainer As of 09:29 HKT: BTC:$78,910|+0.22%
ETH：$2,502.39｜+2.00%
SOL: $101.59 | +4.94% Fear and Greed Index: 71 | Greed Yesterday, SOL fell back below $100 at a low of about $97; Today it has rebounded to: $101.59, which means the $100–102 points that were closely watched yesterday have re-entered the contest. This is a positive signal for SOL. Because if the breakout above $100 completely fails, normally one should continue to look for support at $94 or even $90. But the actual trend is: 101.9 → 97.2 → 101.6, indicating there is indeed capital support near $100. However, the final step is still needed: can it truly hold above $102? For example$OKB: This wave is not an ordinary rebound but also not suitable for chasing
OKB is currently priced around $112, with a slight 24H pullback, still up about 9.4% over 7 days; more importantly, the past 24H trading volume is about $30M, while the perpetual open interest (OI) is about $30.6M, indicating that leverage has clearly participated but has not yet reached an extremely crowded level.
Looking at the broader market, BTC is currently around $78.9K, up 13.6% over 7 days, having once surged to $81K; OKB's recent rise has obvious market beta support.
OKB's biggest trump card remains its fixed supply of 21 million tokens. After a large-scale burn of 65 million tokens last year, the scarcity logic has completely changed.
My judgment: moderately bullish in the mid-term, wait for a pullback in the short term. $110 is the first support; breaking below $105 turns bearish; $118–120 is resistance, only a breakout with volume gives a chance to continue rising. The cost-performance ratio for chasing the rally now is average; holding is fine, but if you want to add positions, wait around $108–110. If BTC falls back below $78K and OKB breaks below $105, this judgment must be reconsidered.[Crypto News] Bitcoin returns to the $80,000 mark, with the "buy gold and Bitcoin together" trend unfolding.
Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have collectively attracted about $7 billion in inflows, setting a record. The trigger was U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's announcement to expand long-term Treasury repurchases, reigniting the "currency devaluation trade" logic. Gold broke through $4,600 per ounce, and Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000.
BTC is currently fluctuating around $78,700, with a cumulative 7-day gain close to 13%. CryptoQuant's bull market score surged from 30 to 80 within a week, with 8 out of 10 indicators bullish; from August 17 to 21, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $1.92 billion. However, the Fear & Greed Index has reached 81, indicating extreme greed, and combined with the July U.S. PCE data release pushing the September rate hike probability to about 42%, short-term correction risks are rising. The $80,000–$83,000 range is a critical watershed.
On regulation, the SEC submitted a new digital asset custody rule proposal to the White House for review on August 25, aiming to clarify the crypto custody framework for investment advisors and investment companies; the Thai SEC is also soliciting feedback on a crypto ETF draft, initially including only Bitcoin and Ethereum.
With extreme greed and rising rate hike expectations, will you chase at this level or wait for a pullback? #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Hello everyone, let me share my current view on the storage sector.
The latest US core PCE data remained flat compared to last month, indicating that inflation stickiness has not eased, and expectations for rate cuts have been postponed again. Now, all eyes in the market are focused on Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole.
Storage belongs to the high-valuation growth track and is very sensitive to Federal Reserve interest rate news. Nvidia's earnings beating expectations have already supported the AI fundamentals of storage, but liquidity remains a key factor to watch for Powell's stance.
Three scenarios correspond to my operational approach:
1️⃣ Hawkish speech (implying high rates will be maintained longer)
In the short term, the storage sector is likely to face pressure and decline.
Action: Do not rush to bottom-fish; holders can reduce positions on rallies to lower exposure and wait for a stable pullback.
2️⃣ Dovish speech (signaling easing)
Liquidity expectations improve, combined with the inherent prosperity of AI storage, the sector is expected to rebound and recover.
Action: Hold existing positions; if not holding, consider small, phased buys of leading stocks at low prices.
3️⃣ Ambiguous speech with no clear direction
The market will likely enter a phase of oscillation and consolidation.
Action: Focus on range trading, avoid chasing highs or selling lows, control position size and wait for clearer direction.
My current approach
Before the speech lands, I will not heavily bet on direction.
Nvidia has already proven the long-term demand for AI storage is solid; short-term fluctuations are more influenced by macro liquidity sentiment. Priority is to preserve cash flow, wait for the Jackson Hole event to unfold, and after clarifying signals, increase exposure accordingly. NVIDIA fought its most brilliant battle with a “discounted” guidance
Last night, NVIDIA’s after-hours movement had everyone sweating.
The earnings report just came out: revenue $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year; EPS $2.22, fully beating expectations.
After-hours stock price immediately dropped 3%.
“Beating expectations” was no longer enough. The market wanted a “beat within the beat.”
Then the earnings call began.
CFO Colette Kress dropped a bombshell — fiscal 2028 revenue growth of about 70%.
What did analysts expect before? 44%.
After-hours stock price instantly reversed from down 3% to up 5%.
But the real brilliance was in how she said it.
Kress’s exact words: “Customer forecasts show growth doubling next year. But due to supply constraints, we expect growth around 70%."
Jensen Huang added: “If there were no supply constraints, this number would be much higher.”
To translate —
The real demand growth is 100%, but NVIDIA only promises to deliver 70%.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon did the math: 70% guidance means an increase of $200 billion compared to previous outlook.
NVIDIA’s “discounted” guidance does two things at once:
First, it raises market expectations from 44% to 70% — bullish.
Second, it provides a “reasonable excuse” for any growth below 100% — supply shortage, not demand shortage.
The highest-level narrative is redefining the problem itself.
The market was previously focused on “Will AI capital spending slow down?” NVIDIA directly shifted the topic to “When will capacity bottlenecks be resolved?”
Wafer capacity, HBM memory, data center power — all are in tight supply. The AI compute supply shortage will last at least until the end of fiscal 2028.
This is not bearish; it’s NVIDIA proactively drawing a moat around itself.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
NVIDIA is the “thermometer” of the entire AI infrastructure. It tells everyone with 70% guidance —
The main AI infrastructure story is far from over.
AWS just confirmed an additional deployment of 2 million GPUs. The top five cloud providers’ capital expenditures will approach $800 billion in 2026 and reach $1.3 trillion in 2027.
The entire AI sector is still accelerating.
For Web3+AI projects, this is a mid-term reassurance. Financing continues — just in mid-August, nearly $4.5 billion flowed into the Web3 space, mostly directed at AI infrastructure.
Compute shortage = the opportunity is far from over.
The after-hours stock price rollercoaster from down 3% to up 5% revealed a truth —
The market doesn’t disbelieve NVIDIA; it just doesn’t know how to price “infinite demand.”
NVIDIA played a stronger hand with a “discounted” guidance than it would have with an “undiscounted” one.
The highest-level players never answer the question itself —
They redefine the question.
$BTC $NVDA #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $XRP/USDT: 24h range 1.3567–1.4504, 56% retraced. The nearest hour showed an impulse of only 0.61x with funding +0.0090%, and OI increased by +0.18%:
acceleration did not occur on 15m, 1h, and 4h, but the median of green candles is +2.29%. Is the market taking a breather between waves? When BTC and ETH consolidate within a range, doing T trades to reduce cost after confirming the direction is a very good opportunity. Yesterday, ETH was bought multiple times between 2431.37 and 2445, and the T position was sold between 2460 and 2472, reducing the cost from the original 2448.94 to 2425.78. After 5 AM, it started to rally, reaching a high of 2514.37. Currently, the key 2500 level is being contested repeatedly; if 2500 holds, a significant upward rally is not far off.
SPCX reduced its cost from 125 again after T trading yesterday, with the current holding cost at 119.45. A good point for SPCX is that it has now advanced above 140.
Additionally, a SOL coin-based long position was established last night at an opening price of 96.87. This morning it surprisingly reached 101.68, yielding 100% profit. A portion was taken off for profit. Currently, it is the third attempt to break above 100. The remaining position is being observed to see if it can break through, as the probability of this third breakthrough is somewhat higher.
Yesterday, a small position in SanDisk first gained 7.3U. At night, a small SanDisk position was opened at 1495 with a stop loss at 1530, resulting in a 23.78% loss, actually losing 5.33U. Overall, still profitable.
With ETH, BTC, and SPCX all rallying and the T trades yesterday, the total capital grew by 27.5% yesterday, which is considered a good day.
The above is my trading record and does not constitute investment advice!
$BTC $ETH $SOL ##美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 英伟达这份“逼近千亿”的财报，对“储能”和“半导体”这两个相关领域的影响其实是一明一暗的两条逻辑线。 简单来说：半导体是眼下被带飞的“显性赢家”，而储能则是未来破局的“关键钥匙”。 🔌 半导体（存储）：财报里的直接“受益人” 这份财报最直接印证了HBM（高带宽内存）的卖方市场地位： · 业绩直接挂钩：英伟达数据中心营收暴涨117%，全靠GPU，而GPU离不开HBM。只要英伟达卖得好，上游存储芯片需求就差不了。 · “锁单”动作明显：英伟达将未来供应与产能承诺直接飙到2790亿美元，其中绝大部分是用于锁定HBM产能。这等于给三星、SK海力士和美光吃了长期定心丸。 · 成本转嫁：黄仁勋承认内存“价格极端高企”。分析师认为，只要英伟达能维持75%左右的毛利率，就说明成本压力成功转嫁给了下游，存储厂的议价能力在增强。财报后美光、闪迪盘后股价涨超3%，就是市场用钱投票的结果。 ⚡️ 储能（电力）：要解决AI“吃不饱”的瓶颈 财报虽亮眼，但市场真正担心的是：GPU造出来，有没有足够的电让它跑起来？ · 头号瓶颈：黄仁勋在电话会上直言，电力、散热、液冷是增长面临的巨大挑战。AI数据中心需要吉瓦级电The strategy of initially shorting then going long on Bitcoin is a complete win
The US market fell from 78500 to 77500, dropping 1000 points before the price rebounded, then it rebounded by 1500 points
The second coin's 2430 northbound move is even more flawless, couldn't be more precise, rebounding from 2430 to 2510, an 80-point gain $BTC BTC is still holding hard near 79K, but the macro environment has shifted from a "tailwind" back to a "mixed" scenario: PCE is slightly hotter, the dollar is strengthening, and rate hike expectations are rising; the good news is that oil prices continue to cool down, and long-term yields have not yet spiraled out of control.
① BTC: 80K remains resistance, not confirmed support
This morning Reuters recorded BTC at about $78,875, a slight intraday increase of about 0.55%. ETH is around $2,498. After BTC broke through 80K a few days ago, it has fallen back below 79K, indicating the market has not yet truly "stabilized."
I am now more inclined to view 80K as a contested zone rather than a confirmed support level.
② PCE hotter than expected, Fed rate hike probability rises again
US July PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%; month-over-month +0.2%, also above the expected +0.1%. Core PCE remains around 3.3%.
After the data release, the market's pricing for a September rate hike clearly increased, with Reuters estimating the probability rising from about 36% to a range of 40%–44%.
For BTC, this logic is straightforward:
Inflation not falling → Fed less likely to ease → Dollar/yields likely to strengthen → Increased pressure above 80K.Earnings night, retail investors are guessing the ups and downs, what are the "big short sellers" doing?
Last night, Nvidia's earnings report played out like a textbook roller coaster—
Revenue of $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year; data center revenue $89 billion, surging 117%. After-hours initially dropped 3%, then during the call, a statement of "70% growth in fiscal 2028" instantly pulled it back up 5%.
A 7 percentage point reversal, quite thrilling, right?
But the most exciting part last night wasn’t how the stock price moved.
It was what the "big short seller" Michael Burry did.
On the same day as the earnings report, Burry disclosed his latest holdings—
He was both long and short Nvidia at the same time.
You read that right: buying December expiry NVDA call options with strike prices in the mid-to-high $200 range, with premiums accounting for only 3.5%-4% of his position. At the same time, increasing Nvidia shorts and shorting Oracle, Palantir, Nebius, and Caterpillar. His short stock positions now exceed 21% of his portfolio.
What did Burry himself say?
"I'm not here to make money."
That statement is brutal.
In plain terms—
He believes Nvidia is overvalued, but he knows the earnings might trigger a short squeeze. Buying calls isn’t to make money, it’s to survive.
This isn’t a contradiction in views; it’s risk management.
Think about it: if the earnings cause a surge, calls make money to offset short losses; if it crashes, shorts make money. He’s covered either way.
Retail investors guess the price moves, top players manage risk.
So why is Burry bearish on Nvidia?
He said it plainly on Substack: "On the surface, this stock is severely undervalued—low PE, high growth, monopoly rents. But my theoretical valuation is far below the current market price."
He believes Nvidia’s "monopoly rents" are unsustainable, and profit margins will decline. The company is focusing on capex and expansion, "not returning enough to shareholders."
He even warned: Nvidia is "investing at the bubble peak," which could lead to "shocking profit contractions" in the future.
On the other side, Jensen Huang said something equally thought-provoking during the call—
"Real demand is far above 70%, but supply limits our confidence to deliver 70%."
70% is not a demand ceiling, it’s a capacity ceiling.
One says demand is unlimited, supply is the limit; the other says monopoly is unsustainable, profits are about to collapse.
Who’s right or wrong? Unknown.
But one thing is certain—
On earnings night, retail investors guess the price moves, Burry hedges risk.
$NVDA #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Bank of Japan officials made a rather contradictory statement: the economy faces downward pressure, but prices are still rising, although the supply crisis has eased considerably.
Market interpretations are divided: it sounds dovish, but there is still a possibility of a rate hike in January next year, which is potentially bearish for risk assets; fortunately, the hard landing risk has decreased, and the medium-term market base remains relatively stable.
On-chain, the tug-of-war is obvious: Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates are rapidly declining, with shorts aggressively adding positions; meanwhile, stablecoins have a net inflow of 120 million USDT over 4 hours, with large funds quietly buying the dip.
Overall judgment: the short-term market is likely to weaken and fluctuate, but there is capital support at the bottom. Don’t be swayed back and forth by news; pay more attention to the on-chain actions of whales.
$BTC #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 麻吉大哥刚刚又梭哈了一笔，主打一个浮盈加仓
要么暴富，要么爆仓$ETH
链上新鲜开仓数据来了，大哥依旧贯彻宇宙真理：只做多，做空不存在的！刚新开一笔40倍杠杆BTC多单，50枚比特币进场，开仓均价78712美元，这笔新单小幅吃肉浮盈8200多美金。
总仓位名义金额超1亿美金，ETH 25倍杠杆重仓28250枚，开仓均价2357美元，妥妥的赚钱劳模，稳稳一百多万浮盈。反观BTC老仓位直接变成拖油瓶，40倍高杠杆扛着573枚，均价79247美元，还在小幅亏钱，属于大哥左手赚大钱，右手疯狂输血。还顺手开了10倍HYPE山寨小仓位，娱乐一把土币行情。
想当初行情一跌，就得紧急变卖无聊猿NFT凑保证金，江湖人称卖猴续命专业户。这回回血充足，NFT猴子直接下岗休息，再也不用充当应急ATM。
赚到的浮盈一分钱不提现，油门踩死全部滚仓继续冲。全网吃瓜网友24小时在线蹲清算警报，追剧都没这么积极。大哥的操作是币圈大型真人秀，我们看热闹笑笑就行
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Something unusual is happening with $HYPE . While the broader market is struggling to maintain momentum, HYPE is hovering near its highs around $82, after a roughly 40% weekly move and a recent ATH near $83.19. The interesting question isn't: “Why is HYPE pumping?” It's: “What is the market pricing in?” Hyperliquid has quietly developed one of the strongest activity-to-token narratives in crypto. In H1 2026, the protocol reportedly generated around $419M in gross fees, while trading volume reach