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Every time the funding rate turns positive, someone in the comments shouts "the shorts are about to strike." Wake up. Currently, the rates on various exchanges are only mildly positive. It's true that shorting earns you money, but the rates are far from extreme, so this is not a signal to chase shorts at all. The real valuable signal is when the funding rate hits an extreme and longs are paying painfully high fees—that's the fuel for a crowded reversal. A mildly positive funding rate just indicates a relatively balanced long-short situation. Using it as a directional basis is like seeing "partly cloudy" in the weather forecast and concluding there will be a heavy rainstorm tomorrow. Data is meant to be interpreted, not imagined. $BTC$CORE is causing a buzz with the saying "if you don't accumulate now, you'll only realize it when it hits 3U" – it sounds compelling, but is it really worth acting on?
This viewpoint hits the fear of missing out on a big wave, but we need to separate emotions from facts. In the long term, if BTC-Fi explodes with lstBTC, SatPay, Core Alpha, and decentralized stablecoins, the 3U story is entirely plausible. Like🔥 $BTC PULLBACK OR OPPORTUNITY?
$BTC is cooling near $78K after losing the $80K level, but the broader structure remains constructive.
The standout signal is institutional demand. 💰
📈 Aug 25: BTC ETFs +$314.3M
📈 Aug 25: ETH ETFs +$179.8M
📊 Last week: BTC ETFs +$1.92B
📊 ETH ETFs +$697M
Profit-taking can bring volatility, but persistent ETF inflows suggest buyers are still active.
The dip may be a reset—not the end of the move.
#DailyOrbit
#PCEToJacksonHole Wash-Jackson Hall's debut: The next big bullish candlestick for BTC may be hidden within this policy framework
What the market is really waiting for now is not Walsh's call for "rate hikes" or "pause," but how he explains a contradiction: inflation is still above target, but the economy is not weak enough to need rescue.
The latest PCE year-on-year growth is 3.7%, core PCE is 3.3% year-on-year, and Q2 GDP remains steady at 1.5%. After the data release, the market priced in a 25BP rate hike in September has risen to about 40%, indicating that policy expectations remain highly divided.
In this speech, Walsh focused on three main points:
(1) Whether inflation above 3% is defined as the need for continued tightening;
(2) Whether it believes that rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields have partially completed the Fed's tightening efforts; #PCEToJacksonHole #BTC80KHoldOrFold #AIEarningsWatch Inflation still can't be suppressed Next, it depends on how the Federal Reserve chooses to act The latest US July core PCE is out, up 0.2% month-over-month, still 3.3% year-over-year, with overall PCE year-over-year rising to 3.7%. Meanwhile, personal income grew 0.4%, consumption grew 0.2%, and the economy is not weak enough to require immediate rescue from the Federal Reserve. This set of data is actually quite awkward. Inflation isn't coming down, but the economy is still holding up. Now the $BICO rose over 800% in a week from 0.089, then plunged 41% in a single day. On the surface, it looks like a technical narrative, but in reality, it's the result of a long-short contract game.
Looking at the data: contract trading volume is 8 times that of 51.59 million. The funding rate is deeply negative at -48bps, shorts pay holding fees daily, yet the price doesn't fall—a typical short squeeze structure. The long-short ratio was once imbalanced, forcing shorts to liquidate and push the price up.
However, the chips are highly concentrated, with the top 100 wallets controlling the vast majority of supply; a pump or dump only requires a big player to move a finger. Low liquidity plus high leverage makes sharp rises and falls inevitable.
$BICO is fully circulating with no unlocking pressure. Remember: buy when no one is interested, sell when the crowd is loud. The hype is exploding now—will you chase or wait? 💾 Storage Industry News｜KIOXIA reportedly plans to invest over ¥1T yen (1 trillion yen) to build a new NAND fabrication (flash memory wafer factory) in Iwate Prefecture, Japan.
This round of large-scale capex is driven by AI inference fueling explosive demand for large-capacity storage, ushering the storage industry into a super-cycle.
Market focus points:
✅ Supply side: KIOXIA is increasing advanced 3D-NAND capacity layout and advancing mass production ramp-up of the new generation BiCS architecture flash memory;
✅ Industry competition: Korean manufacturers are shifting resources toward HBM, slowing NAND expansion pace, while KIOXIA aims to seize AI data center storage market share;
✅ Cycle concerns: Variability in the storage price cycle. If leading manufacturers aggressively expand production collectively, long-term supply release may suppress flash spot prices, weakening industry profit margins.
The current valuation of the storage sector has already priced in some of the optimistic outlook; the pace of capacity expansion implementation needs continuous monitoring. NVIDIA reports tonight, and I think the hardest part is no longer "whether it can beat expectations," but "whether it can beat them so convincingly that everyone shuts up."
Back in February this year, revenue, profit, and next quarter guidance were all impressive, yet the stock still dropped 5.5% the next day.
In May, it delivered a new record with $81.6 billion in revenue and $75.2 billion from data centers.
But the market has gotten used to perfect results, and appetites have been whetted: ordinary beats now only count as passing grades.
So tonight, I won’t just focus on EPS.
What truly determines where $NVDA goes next is whether Blackwell and Vera Rubin orders continue to accelerate, whether gross margins can hold, whether cloud providers are still willing to raise capital expenditures, and whether customers are actually profiting after burning through so much computing power.
That’s also why the results from Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta are equally important.
No matter how strong NVIDIA is, if the software side still can’t generate new orders, the market’s final conclusion will remain: AI is very profitable, but for now, only the shovel sellers are making money.
The scenario most vulnerable to criticism tonight is actually a great earnings report with guidance that’s only slightly better than expected.
Because the stock price now reflects not just growth, but growth that must continue to accelerate.
Strong numbers are just the ticket to enter; guidance and AI returns are the verdict. $MRVL
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
$SNDK 🚀 The Market Is Moving But Who Is Ready to Follow?
$BTC and $ETH continue to be the first two charts I watch, but I’m looking beyond the majors today.
The real question for me is:
If the market stays strong, which altcoins can attract the next wave of liquidity?
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — market anchor
🔵 $ETH — confirmation
🟣 $SOL — L1 momentum
🟢 $XRP — large-cap rotation
🔷 $SUI — ecosystem strength
⚡ $LINK — infrastructure
🏦 $ONDO — RWA
💧 $AAVE — DeFi
🤖 $TAO — AI
🔥 $HYPE — higher-beta momentum
What interests me is sector strength.
If $BTC remains strong and $ETH continues to confirm, I want to see whether $SOL, $XRP and $SUI can keep attracting attention.
Then I’m watching the narratives underneath them.
$LINK and $ONDO if infrastructure and RWA start heating up.
$AAVE if DeFi begins attracting liquidity.
$TAO if AI becomes a stronger market narrative.
And $HYPE if traders start moving further out on the risk curve.
But I’m not chasing every green candle.
A quick pump can disappear quickly.
What I want is follow-through — strong volume, sustained momentum and other tokens from the same sector beginning to participate.
That’s when a move becomes much more interesting.
My sequence remains:
$BTC → $ETH → large caps → sector leaders → smaller alts
The market doesn't need every token to pump.
I’m simply watching for where strength starts spreading.
Today, these stay on my screen:
$BTC • $ETH • $SOL • $XRP • $SUI • $LINK • $ONDO • $AAVE • $TAO • $HYPE
Different narratives. Different risk.
One market, many possible rotations.
If $BTC and $ETH stay strong, which token are you watching most closely for the next rotation, $SOL, $XRP, $SUI, $LINK, $ONDO or $AAVE ?
#PCEToJacksonHole #BTC80KHoldOrFold #AIEarningsWatch Inflation still can't be suppressed
Next, it depends on how the Federal Reserve chooses to act
The latest US July core PCE is out, up 0.2% month-over-month, still 3.3% year-over-year, with overall PCE year-over-year rising to 3.7%. Meanwhile, personal income grew 0.4%, consumption grew 0.2%, and the economy is not weak enough to require immediate rescue from the Federal Reserve.
This set of data is actually quite awkward.
Inflation isn't coming down, but the economy is still holding up. Now the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to about 40%.
So the upcoming Jackson Hole speech will be very important.
What I want to see now is not whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates immediately, but to what extent they will tolerate inflation above 3%. This will directly affect the liquidity expectations for gold, US stocks, and BTC.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ OpenAI has started making its own chips
NVIDIA's real competitors may be increasing
OpenAI's first self-developed AI chip Jalapeño recently released more test results.
This chip was developed by OpenAI and Broadcom together, specifically optimized for large model inference. SemiAnalysis's actual tests show that on some models, Jalapeño can achieve up to about 1.9 times the performance per watt of NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 systems, with latency reduced to nearly one-third at its lowest.
I think the real significance of this is not "OpenAI beating NVIDIA."
Because OpenAI itself has said that training and inference will still heavily rely on NVIDIA in the future.
What is truly noteworthy is that as AI companies spend more and more money, inference costs have become expensive enough to justify optimizing from the chip level.
Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and now OpenAI, everyone is starting to make their own.
AI computing power demand hasn't decreased; it's just that more and more people want to have a slice of this pie themselves.
$NVDA $WLD $MU
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 BTC at the 80,000 threshold, ETH at the 2,500 mark — all waiting for a word from Walsh.
Yesterday $BTC surged to 81,237, a three-month high.
Today it pulled back to around 78,000.
It broke through 80,000 but didn’t hold.
Why this rally?
The US expanded Treasury buybacks, ETFs saw a weekly inflow of 1.61 billion, shorts were squeezed by 3.3 billion.
But this rally wasn’t driven by buying pressure; it was shorts forced to cover pushing it up.
Tomorrow night is more important than anything else.
August 27 to 29, Jackson Hole Symposium.
Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will deliver his first public speech since taking office.
If he’s dovish, BTC breaking 80,000 again won’t be hard.
If he’s hawkish, this rally might take a breather.
Tomorrow’s market will likely jump up or down based on his words.
$ETH rose 30% this week, outperforming BTC.
Funds are shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
2,500 is a hurdle; it needs to hold above to continue moving.
Bitcoin is rising, but altcoins aren’t following.
Money is concentrating at the top, not spreading out.
Whether 80,000 can hold depends on whether spot buying can support it, not on how much more shorts can be squeezed.
I’ve reduced my position a bit, waiting for tomorrow’s speech to land before deciding.
If the direction is right, I’ll follow; if wrong, it won’t be a big loss.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 The US continues to sanction Iran
But the real factor affecting oil prices is still the Strait of Hormuz
The US has just further expanded sanctions on Iran, this time directly targeting about 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, aiming to continue cutting off Iran's connections to the global financial and energy systems.
However, on the other side, there are signs of cooling down.
Iran and Oman have resumed talks on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, currently discussing temporary channels, clearing mines, and even establishing a long-term navigation plan in the future.
So the recent drop in oil prices is quite understandable.
The market is no longer betting on whether the US will continue sanctions, but on when this world's most important energy passage will return to normal.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens for large-scale navigation, the risk premium on crude oil caused by the war will continue to unwind.
But conversely, if negotiations break down again, oil prices could jump up at any time.
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
$BTC $XAU $CL #美国核心PCE持平上月, how should Wash-Jackson Hole set the tone for his speech? Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole debut is most likely to be set as a 'hawkish neutral' tone—verbally holding the rate hike option, continuing to hold steady in action, not willing to cut rates, and unlikely to deliver a more hawkish shock than expected. 1. Core PCE Data: Sticky Inflation Neither Rising nor Falling. US July Core PCE Price Index (Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge): Month-on-month: +0.2%, previous +0.1%, fully in line with market expectations, slightly rebounding but not exceeding expectations. Year-on-year: +3.3%, Unchanged from June, expected 3.3%, stagnating at 3.3% for two consecutive months, still clearly far from the 2% policy target. Supporting data shows inflation lacks a rapid downward basis: Personal income +0.4% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2%, indicating residents' purchasing power remains resilient. Nominal consumption expenditure +0.2% month-on-month, higher than expected; Real consumer spending is basically flat, indicating that price factors continue to support nominal growth. After the overall data was released, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was basically flat, and the market fully priced in this data, with all attention shifting to the Jackson Hole annual meeting. 2. Wash's Jackson Hole Speech: The Tone and Scenario of Market Expectations This was Wash's first official speech since becoming Fed Chairman (August 28, 22:00 Beijing time), and it was also a key occasion for him to address the "vague communication" controversy at the July meeting and to rebuild policy credibility. Direction of mainstream market expectations: 1. Core tone: Hawkish#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
The bull and bear cycles in the crypto space roughly span four years, aligning closely with Bitcoin's halving cycle. The last bull market occurred in 2021, with the bear market correction expected to last until 2024. Many believe 2026 will mark the start of a new bull market. However, bull and bear cycles are not fixed; changes in the macro environment can alter the rhythm of these cycles.
Historically, bull and bear markets have begun in an environment of global liquidity easing—when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the US dollar weakens, and capital flows in to push cryptocurrency prices higher. In the current cycle, the Federal Reserve remains in a high interest rate phase, with fluctuating expectations about rate cuts, and liquidity has not broadly eased. This is why the market has not entered a major bull run.
Many people are stuck in old patterns, expecting a big surge now based on the previous bull market's pace, ignoring the current macro environment. In the last bull market, the Fed continuously injected liquidity, flooding global markets, whereas now the Fed has maintained high rates for a long time, and liquidity tightening pressures persist.
The fundamental logic behind bull and bear cycles is the global liquidity cycle, with Bitcoin merely serving as a liquidity vehicle. Only when the Federal Reserve initiates sustained rate cuts, global liquidity eases, and large-scale incremental capital enters the market will a true bull market arrive. The current market is just a recovery rebound after the bear market, not the main upward wave of a bull market.
For investors, do not blindly follow historical cycles; instead, assess the current macro environment. Long-term investors can build a base position and wait for the bull market to come, but should not rush. In the current volatile market, patience is more important than position size. Hello everyone, I am the Big Prince with a good mindset 🐮
With the huge options expiring on Friday, the risk of big volatility needs to be taken seriously in advance
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
A rebound that started from the low point in August, BTC has now risen to around 79,100. Many people see the improvement in on-chain indicators and directly conclude that a new bull market has started. Based on years of experience analyzing on-chain data, I believe the signals have improved but are far from a full-blown frenzy stage, so we should not be overly optimistic.
From on-chain data, the realized market cap relative change has risen to +0.21%, which is the first time it has turned positive since the end of May; the 30-day apparent demand has been greater than the token issuance for 6 consecutive days, indicating the market is actively absorbing circulating supply.
However, there is a common pitfall here: a positive indicator does not mean a large influx of capital. Current capital inflow is only at the 3-4% percentile of the historical positive range, and demand strength is only at the bottom 10% historically. Simply put: funds have just stopped fleeing and are no longer dumping aggressively, but the main incremental force has not truly entered. This rebound is in the right direction, but the upward momentum is clearly weak.
Another warning sign is from whales: Lookonchain revealed that an ETH giant whale transferred chips held for nearly two years entirely into Binance, with this position losing over $10 million.
In practice, I have seen many similar cases where a giant whale moves a large batch to exchanges. This does not necessarily mean an immediate crash, but often indicates long-term holders starting to cut losses and reduce positions, signaling a contraction in risk appetite, which should be added to our watchlist.
Adding to this is a key event in derivatives: on Friday, $6.4 billion worth of BTC options will expire. Based on past settlement experience, market makers will continuously adjust hedging positions before expiration, causing prices to be tugged back and forth around key strike prices, repeatedly spiking and creating many false breakouts and breakdowns. High leverage can easily be liquidated repeatedly. Do not simply assume expiration means a big rise or fall; it mainly amplifies short-term volatility. The real direction depends on whether spot funds take over.
Summarizing all signals personally:
This rebound is mostly driven by sentiment repair, on-chain funds have only marginally improved without large-scale inflows, whales show signs of reducing positions, and the huge options settlement causes disturbances. Overall, the market is actively contracting risk appetite.
For the market to go further, two conditions are indispensable: first, sustained expansion of on-chain buying demand, not just a short-lived repair; second, after options settlement dust settles, spot trading volume must effectively take over the liquidity left by derivatives.
Practical takeaway: during settlement week, try to keep contract leverage low, don’t be misled by short-term spikes, and don’t rely on a single on-chain indicator to heavily bet on one side. Cross-verifying multiple indicators is a safer approach.
⚠️This is only a personal review and experience sharing, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 NVIDIA's earnings report fell short of the soaring market expectations. Even if the performance itself is not bad, as long as there is no sufficiently strong upside surprise, the high-valuation tech sector is prone to trigger profit-taking.
The real core focus of this earnings report is not how much NVIDIA profits, but whether it can rely on continuously exceeding expectations in fundamentals to support the high valuation of the entire AI sector.
(Market discussion, personal opinion, not investment advice)Last night, the US stock market continued to strengthen, with the Nasdaq closing up 0.66%. NVDA rose 2.2%, and mega-cap tech stocks once again became the market leaders driving the rally.
The current risk-on rebound logic is clear: crude oil declined, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and macro-level constraints suppressing the market have eased; more importantly, incremental funds have front-run Nvidia's upcoming earnings release.
Nvidia today is no longer just an ordinary semiconductor stock; it acts more like a sentiment switch for global AI trading.
If the earnings beat expectations, with strong revenue, Blackwell order demand, and next-quarter guidance, the AI thematic rally is expected to continue to ferment.
NVDA's strength drives the semiconductor sector higher, boosting overall market risk appetite, and even AI-themed crypto assets are likely to enjoy a capital premium. 🔥 The more sanctions the US adds, the more oil falls. Make that make sense. 👀
Tonight’s market reaction is seriously counterintuitive.
The US keeps tightening sanctions on Iran, targeting oil flows, shipping, digital assets and gold — with “zero leakage” as the goal.
On paper, $CL and $BZ should be ripping higher.
Instead? Both dropped more than 4%. 📉
Here’s the catch: oil doesn’t rally just because sanctions sound aggressive. What matters is how
#DailyOrbit #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Fortunately, the PCE data met expectations and did not exceed them; otherwise, the probability of a rate hike would increase, making it questionable whether rates can remain unchanged in September.
Regarding $BTC and $ETH prices fluctuating around 78000 and 2440 respectively.
The Federal Reserve targets inflation at 2%, and inflation has exceeded this target for more than 5 years based on core PCE. It is estimated that it will take 1-2 years or longer to gradually approach 2%.
From another perspective, inflation is an "old problem," and the intensified Middle East conflict has exacerbated this issue, which has then transmitted to the cost side domestically in the U.S. 🤔
In his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, Wash is expected to be neutral or slightly hawkish, possibly mentioning that if inflation persists, a rate hike option cannot be ruled out. The purpose is also to rebuild market trust in the Fed's control over inflation.
However, a notable point in this year's speech is whether the upper limit of the "FIMA repo facility" will be expanded or even made unlimited, which seems like "good news" for Japan, provided it does not affect U.S. Treasury securities.
If there is some relaxation, it would effectively be a targeted liquidity release, which might alleviate concerns about long-term U.S. Treasuries, lower yields, and reduce financing costs in U.S. society 🤔
Be cautious of risks!
@OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX $CXMT Changxin Technology is to some extent a welfare stock!!!
The pricing given by the stock market is seriously overestimated,
In terms of revenue and net profit, it is only one-fifth of Hynix $SKHYNIX,
But the market value is about 60% of it,
This excessive pricing is caused by the low liquidity in the new stock phase,
When the market is stable,
The price will slowly fall back,
It is expected to enter a downward channel.A whale who previously took a $12M loss on ETH has returned after nearly six months of inactivity. He just bought 2,165 $ETH at an average price of $2,463, spending around $5.33M. Last time, he cut his position near $2,452—now he’s buying back even higher, suggesting he may have recognized his previous mistake. 📌 $2,460 is the key battleground: Hold above it → bullish momentum Break below it → risk of further downside Smart-money positioning also favors the bulls: 🐂 4,122 long positions worth$RIVER at the price of 2, I re-entered the long position on river. The position size in the front cabin is basically around 50u. I have three reasons for taking the long position.
First, a couple of days ago during the crash, I entered a long position at 2 and closed it at 2.6, so there was already a 0.6 point profit moat.
Second, its contract funding rate started to change to a fixed 0.005% every four hours, with a comprehensive annualized funding rate of 10%. In my understanding, the funding rate has stabilized, and with the long-term gradual decline, the market makers have basically cleared out the longs who bought during the previous crash. The longs I am taking now are the bloodied chips from those retail investors.
Third, this is also a regret of mine. Since entering the market, I directly took a hit on this coin. I have never forgotten how my short contract at 11 was pulled up to 25, causing me sleepless nights. Later, when it dropped back to 15, I closed the position (incurring a lot of funding fees) and missed the subsequent profit when it fell to 7.
But to add a side note, after that wave, the price rose to 33. That’s when I got smart and started using grid trading, successfully making over 100 dollars on this coin. If I remember correctly, the first wave of grid trading benefits came from here. Since then, most of my operations have been grid trading. Looking at the comprehensive arbitrage annualized rate now, it’s as high as 88%, which is really impressive, Clara. Maybe river will be like zec, raging wildly then silent for three years, and then take off directly 😇😇😇 although I don’t know what value this coin actually has Bitcoin’s next move may depend on the Strait of Hormuz. 👀
If Oman and Iran can turn their proposed Hormuz corridor into a sustained recovery in shipping, oil could stay softer — taking pressure off Treasury yields and giving risk assets, including $BTC, another tailwind.
But there’s a big catch: only 5 commodity-vessel transits were recorded versus a 10-day average of 15. If the corridor fails or attacks return, the oil premium could come roaring back.
#DailyOrbit Over the past 24 hours, the flow of funds in the crypto market revealed a thought-provoking signal: although Bitcoin and Ethereum saw profit-taking at high levels, institutional funds did not retreat. According to the latest ETF data, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of about 4,038 BTC, equivalent to $316 million; Ethereum ETFs saw 75,150 ETH, valued at about $184 million. Combined, the total single-day net inflow exceeded $500 million, a volume rarely seen in a volatile market. Stretching the time frame to a week, the picture becomes clearer. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a cumulative net inflow of 27,403 BTC, about $2.15 billion; Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of 352,893 ETH, about $865 million. In other words, in the past seven days, the combined net inflow of these two products has exceeded $3 billion. This is not a brief emotional rebound, but a sustained flow of capital. What truly deserves attention is the timing of these capital inflows. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both experienced rapid rallies and have recently entered a consolidation phase, with some degree of price correction. Usually, at such moments, retail investor sentiment tends to fluctuate, but ETF data shows institutions are using pullbacks to continue adding positions. This combination of "cooling prices and rising demand" is often more convincing than a single large bullish candle. From Bitcoin's perspective, it remains the top choice for institutional allocation. With weekly net inflows exceeding $2.1 billion, it provides solid demand support for the price. Currently, the market is at a close positionJackson Hole Debut by Walsh: The Next Big Bull Candle for BTC Might Be Hidden in This Policy Framework What the market is really waiting for now is not whether Walsh will shout "rate hike" or "pause," but how he explains a contradiction: inflation remains above target, yet the economy is not weak enough to require rescue. Latest PCE year-on-year is 3.7%, core PCE year-on-year is 3.3%, and Q2 GDP remains at 1.5%. After the data release, the market pricing for a 25BP rate hike in September has risGood mindset, a friendly reminder not to bottom-fish too early 🐮
$BTC has pulled back from over 60,000 to 80,000 in just over a month, so why do I still feel this bear market isn't over, or that this isn't really a bull market?
Yesterday at Euro Yen Square, a friend asked me this question.
My judgment hasn't changed: I think there's a high probability of another deeper pullback ahead, possibly even back to over 60,000; but this time it might not drop back to 50,000, and instead could form a true Higher Low in this cycle.
Recently, BTC has indeed been very strong.
In the past 30 years, US Treasury yields dropped from above 5.3%, the dollar eased a bit, plus ETFs started flowing back in, and with short positions piled up heavily before, this rally blew out many shorts directly.
The market's suppressed sentiment finally found an outlet, rallying from around 60K all the way to 80K, which I find completely reasonable.
But here’s the problem: this rally has now reached what I consider the toughest segment.
I currently see 82K–85K as a very important resistance zone in this cycle.
On one hand, 80K is a major round number; above that, 83K–85K is close to the trading and trapped position area left from the late January drop this year. Back then, BTC hovered around 84K before plunging directly to 75K or even lower, so naturally, there will be a batch of holders wanting to break even in this range.
Plus, this rally from around 60K has been very fast.
So I’m not expecting it to shoot straight up to 90K in one go.
What I want to see is: after failing to break through around 82K–85K, where will the first proper daily/weekly correction find support?
Let’s first look near 75K.
If it holds there and then breaks above 85K again, the structure looks very good: 60K → 85K → 75K → new high.
That’s a textbook Higher Low.
But I’m also thinking one level deeper.
If the four-year cycle is still valid, the September–October window hasn’t closed yet. That means even if 60K was the lowest price before, it’s still entirely possible to revisit 62K–68K for a higher low before truly ending this bear market.
This is actually the scenario I lean towards now: a price bottom near 60K → a strong rebound above 80K → a big pullback around September → a Higher Low above 60K → start of a new cycle.
So I won’t declare the bear market over just because BTC has reclaimed 80K.
Likewise, I won’t start aggressively shorting now based on the “four-year cycle bottom in October” narrative.
Both extremes are too much.
For the whole of September, the two things I most want to see are: whether 82K–85K can truly be broken through,
and where the first big pullback will stop — at 75K or back down to 60K–65K.
If by October BTC refuses to deeply correct and holds firmly above 85K, I’ll admit that the previous 50K–60K range likely formed the bottom for this cycle.
But at this point, I prefer to wait.
I think the bear market still has one last leg down.
And if that leg stops above 60K without breaking the previous low, I’ll be even more willing to believe it’s the true bottom than when I first saw 60K.The 3.3% core PCE didn’t deliver a clear answer, but U.S. Treasuries may have already made a decision for Walsh in advance.
In July, the core PCE rose 3.3% year-over-year, consistent with the previous value and market expectations, and increased 0.2% month-over-month; the revised annualized growth rate of real GDP for Q2 remained at 1.5%.
This set of data is actually quite awkward.
Inflation hasn’t worsened further, but it’s still far from the Fed’s 2% target; the economy is indeed slowing down, but 1.5% is nowhere near a level that requires the Fed to step in immediately.
So the biggest feature of this PCE report is that it didn’t provide any clear answers.
It can’t say inflation is resolved, nor that the economy is already unable to hold up.
Therefore, the focus naturally shifts to Walsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
But I think everyone might be focusing on the wrong point.
What’s really worth paying attention to now may not be whether Walsh will directly tell the market if there will be a rate hike in September, but whether he will redefine the question:
What exactly counts as “sufficient tightening”?
Because the recent rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is itself raising the overall cost of financing for the economy. In other words, even if the Fed does nothing, the bond market may have already applied some brakes on its behalf.
So here’s the question.
If Walsh admits that judging whether policy is tight enough can’t just look at the federal funds rate, but must also consider long-term yields and overall financial conditions, then the 3.3% core PCE may not necessarily mean rate hikes must continue.
But if he believes the recent rise in Treasury yields is more due to debt, supply, and term premiums rather than genuine monetary tightening, then the situation is completely reversed.
The Fed might think: the bond market can do its thing, but I still have to keep raising rates.
So the real big test on Friday may not be whether Walsh leans hawkish or dovish.
It’s whether he will admit:
The responsibility for applying the brakes to the U.S. economy no longer lies solely with the Fed.
The PCE didn’t deliver the answer.
But U.S. Treasuries may have already made a decision for Walsh in advance.
$BTC #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ At 1 a.m., unable to sleep, I got up to review this week's battle with SanDisk (SNDK) again. Honestly, this battle left me speechless about myself. 1. August 24: 1418, I Precisely Caught the Bottom On August 24, the US stock market opened, and the storage sector was collectively sold off. SanDisk's underlying stock fell from 1596.08 to a daily low of 1418.44, a steepest drop of -10.3%. The SNDKUSDT perpetual contract 24-hour low was 1418.44, with volatility exceeding $180. I decisively bottom-fished near 1418. The logic is simple: 1416 is a key technical support, RSI6 dropped to 5.84 (an extreme level not seen in years), plus the AI inference-driven NAND supercycle logic remains intact, SanDisk's Q1 2027 revenue guidance is $10.3-10.8 billion, and fundamentals have not collapsed. This is a golden pit created by panic selling. After bottom-fishing, the price rebounded as expected, with the underlying stock closing at 1493.12, a perpetual rebound to around 1476. The unrealized profit was once very considerable. 2. First attempt to fail: Couldn't break through, should have left, but didn't move. The price rebounded to near 1550 (5-hour chart resistance) and got stuck, with a clear upper shadow and weakening bullish momentum. The thought of "pocketing it safely" flashed through my mind—but I didn't move. What I thought was: "With such strong fundamentals, the NAND supercycle is still in place, Nvidia's earnings report is coming soon, the storage sector will definitely rebound, let's buy more." But as a result, prices retreated, and unrealized gains were given back near the cost line. 3. Second Attempt to Die: Break-Even Orders Got Swept, Re-entry💳Institutional Trends｜V Visa partners with South Korea's leading financial group Shinhan Financial to build stablecoin infrastructure
The two parties will jointly test stablecoin issuance, remittance, and redemption processes, developing a commercialization model adapted to the South Korean market.
The core focus of the cooperation is not on coin issuance experiments but on the implementation of payment settlement scenarios: piloting the use of stablecoins for card clearing and exploring AI-driven payment solutions, B2B, and B2C payment applications.
A key signal: stablecoins are breaking out of the crypto exchange circle and officially entering the mainstream traditional financial settlement system.
No longer just a trading speculation tool, but a new generation of payment infrastructure that institutions are actively deploying. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The full set of US PCE data was released overnight, overall stronger than expected!
Core PCE inflation remained flat without declining, and both personal consumption and durable goods orders exceeded expectations.
In short, the US economy still shows resilience, inflation has not cooled further, and the market's expectation for a quick rate cut has been directly dampened.
This is negative news for gold; it is difficult for it to rally sharply in the short term, likely to face pressure and fluctuate, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
There is no major positive news for $BTC and $ETH; the rate cut expectations are delayed, making it hard for the market to explode directly, and it remains a volatile consolidation pattern.
#US Core PCE flat from last month, how will the Jackson Hole speech set the tone? Japan plans to significantly increase the launch cadence of the H3 launch vehicle, aiming to catch up with SpaceX in the commercial space sector.
Compared to Falcon 9's mature reusable model and high-frequency iterative launches, the H3 is still an expendable launch vehicle, with obvious gaps in launch frequency and cost-efficiency.
Japan hopes to boost its annual launch volume through increased budget, improve domestic launch service capabilities, and seize the industrial window for low Earth orbit satellite networking.
However, there are considerable barriers in technology iteration, cost control, and commercial operation, making it difficult to close the lead of industry leaders in the short term.#JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk, AI storage valuation under renewed scrutiny
I actually think that Jane Street holding 5% of $SNDK is a signal that the more positive the news, the more cautious we should be.
Institutional entry doesn't mean the current price is the bottom, nor does it mean SanDisk will keep hitting new highs. I still believe in the logic of AI storage, but the valuation has already risen to this level; the market is no longer just speculating on performance but on expectations for the next few years.
So what worries me most now is a bull trap. Even if SanDisk rebounds another 35%, I wouldn't easily take it as a reversal; it looks more like forming a lower high.
1400 is the critical line I’m watching closely; if it breaks below, there will be a large liquidity vacuum below, and a further 35% drop is not impossible.
As for 800-900, I will still wait. That range is the real discount zone in my view.
So don’t start blindly expecting new highs just because Jane Street bought 5%. Institutions willing to buy doesn’t mean they won’t wait for cheaper prices.
The AI storage story isn’t over, but the bubble of high valuation may still need to be squeezed further."I Don't Believe in the Bull Market at All: BTC Can't Hold 80K, 76000 Is What I Really Want to See"
I simply don't buy into the whole "bull market" narrative.
Yesterday, $BTC surged above 80K,
but clearly—it couldn't hold.
So I immediately opened another short position.
Shorted at 80298,
now around 78800, floating profit already over 580U.
Why dare to short?
Because the 80K level looked lively yesterday,
but after the price surged up, it never formed a solid hold.
More importantly:
Surge → Pullback → Rebound.
Each rebound weaker than the last.
This kind of movement, to me, looks more like distribution at a high level,
rather than the "shakeout before breakout" many people talk about.
If it were a strong breakout,
after the pullback it should quickly recover.
But now it's:
Rally with no volume, weak rebound, deeper pullbacks.
So next, I’m focusing on:
🎯 78500
If this level breaks down again,
then 78000 is very likely to fall as well.
Once continuous bearish candles start appearing,
then the space I really want to target comes:
76000.
If 80K can’t hold,
don’t rush to label the market as a "bull market."
Price doesn’t lie; the trend will tell you the truth.
---
### $SNDK: I’m Not Chasing the Last Bull Candle
Lately, I actually don’t want to chase $SNDK.
For a coin that has already had a run-up,
the biggest risk at the top isn’t that it won’t rise,
but:
The price stays high, but volume starts to dry up.
If what follows is:
Shorter and shorter rebounds,
deeper and deeper pullbacks,
and every rally becomes more difficult.
Then I tend to interpret it as:
The chips on the top are starting to loosen.
Chasing in at this point,
can easily become the last leg.
So my approach is simple:
Don’t chase the highs, wait for solid support.
Better to miss some gains,
than to catch the last leg.
---
### $XAUT: What’s Really Worth Watching Is "Strength Against the Trend"
By contrast, I’m focusing more on $XAUT.
If the crypto market continues to weaken,
gold can easily regain safe-haven capital.
But I won’t chase just because it’s rising.
What I really want to see is:
The overall market remains weak,
but it quickly recovers after a pullback.
That’s true strength against the trend.
If capital starts shifting from high-risk assets
toward safe-haven assets,
then $XAUT’s performance is worth close attention.
So my current position logic is very simple:
🔻 $BTC: Keep shorting, focus on 78500 / 78000 / 76000
⚠️ $SNDK: Beware of top-level profit-taking, don’t chase the last leg
🟡 $XAUT: Waiting for capital to shift toward safe havens
The market will never keep rising just because you believe in a "bull market."
Whether 80K can hold is the most critical question ahead.
#BTC breaks 80000 USD, can it hold the new level
#US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait resumption talks advance
#ZEC spot ETF first day trading volume $14.8 million In recent China-US interactions, the "US private stablecoin case" has been included under the multi-currency sandbox topics in the trade/AI/regional affairs grouping, with supporting dual-track audits and red lines to ensure the theme of strategic stability.
Refer to the US regulations of 5 million and 75 million tiers to increase recognition of RMB regional pilot programs India is about to become an unignorable new variable in the global RWA asset tokenization landscape.
According to Cointelegraph, India plans to launch its first batch of tokenized corporate bond pilots in September 2026, issued by the state-owned power finance company REC. The most critical breakthrough is that the entire settlement process will directly use the Reserve Bank of India's wholesale digital rupee.
Previously, market discussions on RWA tokenization were mostly limited to regulatory sandboxes in Europe and the US, with underlying clearing heavily dependent on US dollar stablecoins or traditional bank transfer channels. This time, India directly bypasses offshore stablecoins, allowing the sovereign-level CBDC to serve as the on-chain settlement layer, effectively endorsing the issuance, delivery, and clearing of blockchain assets with national credit.
This pilot bridges the last mile of on-chain asset to fiat clearing. When the wholesale digital rupee is natively on-chain, issuance, trading, and settlement truly achieve an end-to-end second-level closed loop. If India validates the synergy feasibility between tokenized bonds and CBDC settlement, emerging economies accelerating digital currency development such as Brazil, Thailand, and the UAE are highly likely to follow suit rapidly.
Of course, reality must be acknowledged: India imposes a 30% capital gains tax and a 1% withholding tax on crypto transactions. The development of tokenized bonds aims to upgrade traditional financial infrastructure rather than to inject bullish fuel into the crypto secondary market. But regardless of the original intention, when the world's most populous country embraces blockchain settlement at the national strategic level, the RWA narrative has irreversibly shifted from institutional experiments to sovereign-level infrastructure competition. The Fear and Greed Index surged to 74, the highest since the crash in October 2025! Are you panicking? $BTC $ETH $DOGE
On August 12, the index was still at 27 (Fear)
In less than two weeks, it jumped straight to 74 (Greed)
On Wednesday, it slightly pulled back to 65, but the level almost coincides with October 5 last year—
And on the 5th day after that, the entire network saw about $19 billion in daily leverage explosion.
BTC rallied from below 68,000 to nearly 80,000 within a week
DOGE rose 24% weekly, Thinking Cat +131%, Cash Cat +113%
Low liquidity memes took off first, indicating retail investors' risk appetite is back, and leverage is quietly building up.
I'm not bearish; this trend is indeed strong.
But history tells us: the index is not a buy/sell alarm, it’s a "crowding thermometer."
74 doesn’t mean a drop tomorrow, it just means the cost-benefit ratio of chasing further is worsening.
What I’m doing now:
1) Not maxing out leverage to follow the crowd
2) Taking profits in batches on winning trades, keeping a base position to watch the show Many people are puzzled that with the same overall market fluctuations, the experience of profit and loss feels vastly different. The root cause lies in the different volatility of each coin.
BTC operates in the 77800‑80000 range, with relatively stable trends; ETH sees fierce battles between bulls and bears, with frequent spikes becoming the norm; SOL experiences the most extreme volatility, with daily swings of ±8% common, and the number of contract liquidations continuously rising.
From the contract structure perspective, SOL's leveraged positions account for a significantly higher proportion than BTC and ETH. Even small capital inflows and outflows are amplified into large fluctuations by derivatives leverage.
I have made the mistake of applying BTC's stop-loss logic to trade SOL. With the same stop-loss range, BTC remains unaffected, but SOL triggers stop-loss and exits directly.
The market conditions are the same, but each coin has different volatility characteristics, so trading parameters cannot be generalized. High-elasticity assets have large fluctuations and low tolerance for errors. In a choppy market, it is essential to reduce position sizes and leave sufficient buffer space to avoid being repeatedly wiped out by the market.On the evening of August 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge—the July PCE Price Index. Data showed: overall PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, unchanged from June and 0.2% month-on-month; Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 3.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Both core data met expectations, but overall PCE month-on-month and year-on-year were 0.1 percentage points higher than market expectations. The market reacted immediately: after the data was released, the US dollar index rebounded sharply, marking its largest gain in nearly four weeks; US Treasury yields rose; Gold prices plunged; The three major US stock indices opened with mixed gains. Interest rate futures showed the market expects the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to rise from about 36% before the data release to about 42%. This report reveals three key signals: First, inflation stickiness is stronger than expected. The overall PCE year-on-year growth rate of 3.7% is nearly double the Fed's 2% inflation target. Although July CPI brought the "good news" of core CPI dropping to 2.5%, the PCE has been noticeably more stubborn due to different weight structures. Second, the consumption engine is stalling. Inflation-adjusted real consumer spending was flat month-on-month in July, ending the strong growth in May and June. The economy is cooling down, but inflation has barely fallen—this is the most challenging combination for the Fed. Third, the suspense over rate hikes is far from over. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's chief economic strategist bluntly stated that a mild, better-than-expected inflation rise "is not something investors or the Fed would like." MarketJackson Hole Debut by Walsh: The Next Big Bull Candle for BTC Might Be Hidden in This Policy Framework
What the market is really waiting for now is not whether Walsh will shout "rate hike" or "pause," but how he explains a contradiction: inflation remains above target, yet the economy is not weak enough to require rescue.
Latest PCE year-on-year is 3.7%, core PCE year-on-year is 3.3%, and Q2 GDP remains at 1.5%. After the data release, the market pricing for a 25BP rate hike in September has risen to about 40%, indicating that policy expectations remain highly divided.
Walsh's speech focuses on three key points:
① Whether inflation above 3% is defined as a must to continue tightening;
② Whether the rise in long-term US Treasury yields has already completed part of the Fed's tightening;
③ Whether clear data trigger conditions will be given instead of continuing vague statements.
**Hawkish:** Strengthened possibility of rate hikes, US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, BTC needs to guard against a pullback to 78,000 or even deeper.
**Dovish:** Emphasizes that current financial conditions are already tight enough, the market will quickly price in a policy shift, and the probability of BTC breaking through $80,000 significantly increases.
If Walsh continues to withhold a framework, that might be the most troublesome outcome—the interest rate expectations will remain divided, and BTC will maintain high volatility oscillating between 78,000 and 80,000.
What Jackson Hole truly decides is not the next interest rate, but how the market should understand the Fed going forward. $BTC #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Ethereum: From Short Squeeze Rebound to Ecosystem Reconstruction, Is This Time Different?
ETH's recent rebound has indeed been strong. It surged over 25% in a week, surpassing $2300 again after more than three months, and the ETH/BTC rate broke the long-term downtrend, returning to around 0.031. Behind this is nearly $1.4 billion in shorts liquidated, with almost 90% paid by the bears.
But more noteworthy than the short squeeze is the ongoing change:
Structural shift in capital flow. Ethereum spot ETFs have continuously attracted funds, with a net inflow of $365 million in July, marking the strongest monthly performance since launch. In the same period, Bitcoin ETFs only saw $205 million inflow. In Q2, Morgan Stanley's ETH exposure increased by 18.6%, JPMorgan by 67.3%, showing ETH growth on the banking side clearly outpacing BTC.
Technical foundation is being rebuilt. 2026 is a critical year for Ethereum: The Fusaka upgrade enhances L2 data capacity via PeerDAS, the Glamsterdam upgrade raises the block Gas limit to 200 million and TPS surpasses 10,000. Vitalik has proposed a multi-year roadmap for "streamlining Ethereum," aiming to embed native privacy and post-quantum cryptography into the protocol.
Application narrative is shifting. The driving logic has moved from past ICOs and NFTs to Wall Street's on-chain tokenization and AI agent application deployment. Ethereum remains the main battlefield for stablecoins and DeFi.
Ethereum is transitioning from "following Bitcoin" to "going its own way." This rebound may be more than just short covering.When you transfer 100 yuan to a friend, you probably picture a picture in your mind: a sum of money starts from your account, follows a certain electronic channel, and enters the other person's account a few seconds later. In fact, nothing has "run over." The Central Bank of Chile recently explained stablecoins in a very counterintuitive phrase: digital currencies don't travel. What really happens in digital payments is that the ledger first confirms your right to spend the money, then subtracts your balance and adds the other person's balance. The so-called payment network is more like a group of people who must agree on the same scoreboard, not a cash transport vehicle replaced by fiber optics. I really like this explanation because it immediately debunks the common metaphor of the "payment track." We always say money moves on-chain and cross-border funds arrive instantly, like a shiny coin passing through an underwater cable. But digital information can be replicated almost at zero cost. If the system simply copies the same "electronic coin" to two people, then it's not a payment, but an extra piece of money out of thin air. The real problem for all digital payment systems is who maintains the records, who has the right to update, and how to prevent the same balance from being spent twice. Bank transfers rely on banks and clearing institutions to maintain the ledger; Blockchain entrusts verification to a distributed set of rules. Stablecoins look more like cash on-chain, but behind them are usually issuers and reserve assets. The Bank of England's explanation is straightforward: wallets store digital keys that allow you to access your balance, while stablecoins themselves are recorded in the ledger; Issuers must also allow holders to redeem them as agreed into money within the banking system. This also explains why "transfers are so fast"Ethereum shows strong fundamentals in ETF inflows, whale accumulation, and tokenized application layers, but on-chain activity decline, mediocre staking returns, and technical weakness pose resistance. ETH may continue to fluctuate around the $2500 mark in the short term, with the mid-term trend depending on upgrade progress and macro liquidity improvement.#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
Many people compare Bitcoin to gold, considering Bitcoin as digital gold with hedging properties. However, every time a global risk event occurs, Bitcoin's performance is inconsistent—sometimes it rises as a safe haven, other times it falls along with risk assets. Many people remain unclear whether Bitcoin is truly a safe-haven asset.
Gold is a traditional safe-haven asset; during geopolitical conflicts and high inflation, capital flows into gold for protection, resulting in relatively stable price movements. Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute has only gradually formed in recent years. Its hedging function is more about protecting against fiat currency credit risk and countering inflation caused by central bank money printing, rather than geopolitical risk.
When the US dollar's credit declines, the Federal Reserve injects liquidity, and fiat currencies depreciate, Bitcoin tends to rally; but when global geopolitical conflicts escalate, market panic rises, and capital flows into the US dollar and US Treasuries for safety, Bitcoin is often sold off, falling alongside risk assets.
This recent Bitcoin rebound is driven by a weakening dollar and declining US Treasury yields, causing capital to flow from dollar assets into risk assets like Bitcoin. If geopolitical risks intensify and the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin will likely face downward pressure.
We need to distinguish Bitcoin's hedging logic: it hedges fiat currency inflation, not global geopolitical risk. Do not blindly buy Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold during risk events; instead, judge Bitcoin's price movements based on the dollar's trend and liquidity changes. NVIDIA's earnings report this time might not just be about NVIDIA itself.
U.S. stocks continued to strengthen last night, with the Nasdaq rising 0.66%, NVIDIA up 2.2%, and tech stocks once again leading the market.
The logic behind this return of risk appetite is actually very clear:
Oil prices have fallen, U.S. Treasury yields have declined, easing market pressure; more importantly, capital has already started to bet ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report.
NVIDIA now is no longer an ordinary tech company.
It is more like the "sentiment switch" for the entire AI trade.
If the earnings continue to exceed expectations, especially if revenue, Blackwell demand, and next quarter guidance can all give the market confidence, then the AI sector is very likely to continue to ferment.
Strong NVIDIA means strong semiconductors, strong tech stocks, and continued improvement in capital's risk appetite; even the AI sector within Crypto might catch a wave of capital premium.
But if the earnings report is not impressive enough, the problem is even bigger.
It's not that NVIDIA's performance is poor, but the market's expectations for it are simply too high now.
As soon as there is any signal that things are "not as good as imagined," high-valuation tech stocks could be the first to realize profits.
So what really needs to be watched this time is not whether NVIDIA can make money, but
whether it can continue to support the high valuation of the entire AI sector with earnings that exceed expectations.
$NVDA #英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视 #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 What? All 24 analysts say buy, 37% pullback with no one downgrading ratings—this is a top signal!!
$xSNDK is now at $1,471, down 37% from the June high of $2,354. Among the 24 covering analysts, 20 are Strong Buy, 1 Moderate Buy, 3 Hold, and zero Sell. The average target price is $2,134 (implying +45% upside).
A 37% pullback with not a single analyst downgrading the rating. Is this normal?
Historical pattern: When a stock pulls back more than 30% from its high and analyst ratings remain unchanged, it usually means one of two things. The first is that the fundamentals are indeed very strong, and the pullback is just a sentiment fluctuation (in which case a V-shaped reversal follows). The second is that the analyst community is caught in confirmation bias—all on the same side with no opposing views, and the market uses price to tell them "you're wrong."
Looking at the data: SNDK is up 509% year-to-date, PE 21.71, PB 15.02, Beta 5.20. This Beta means that if the market drops 1%, SNDK drops 5.2%. Next quarter EPS estimate is $45.22, compared to $0.90 the same period last year—a 49-fold increase. These numbers are extremely impressive, impressively suspicious.
Implied volatility is 77.64%, historical volatility 136.56%—the options market prices volatility at only half of historical levels, indicating options traders expect future volatility to decrease. But SNDK’s Beta of 5.20 under the current macro environment (PCE 3.7%, 42% chance of a rate hike in September) means if the market pulls back, SNDK will fall harder than anyone else.
I think the best fundamentals often coincide with the most dangerous times for cyclical stocks. The storage industry has always been strongly cyclical—the top of the last cycle also saw all analysts bullish.
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 $BTC $ETH The focus this time is not on guessing "insider information," but on whether large capital behavior has formed resonance.
If on-chain data shows large accounts continuously increasing BTC and ETH shorts at high levels, it at least indicates that some funds are hedging against the risk of a rally. But this position itself cannot prove there is definitely negative news, nor can it be directly assumed that they have insider information just because past judgments were accurate.
The biggest problem for BTC currently is the repeated pressure around 80,000; after consecutive rallies, the divergence between bulls and bears has clearly widened; ETH is also oscillating at high levels with stronger elasticity, and if BTC falls back, ETH often amplifies the volatility.
What is truly worth watching tonight is not some "insider account," but the spot trading, ETF funds, and price reaction to the 80,000 threshold after the U.S. stock market opens. If negative news appears but BTC does not fall, it actually indicates strong support; if there is a volume breakout below key support, then beware of bulls deleveraging.
So don't rush to short now, nor blindly go long. News is just a catalyst; price and volume are the final answers.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ PCE data basically meets expectations and actually has little impact, while the market is focusing on current oil prices and Powell's speech on Friday #Bitcoin #WTI
Powell's speech will indicate whether inflation is hawkish or dovish, and inflation depends on oil prices.
Currently, Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on the distribution of Strait revenues, and there is an expectation of navigation through the Strait, but the market is waiting for the US stance. If unclear, the market will worry, just like now, so the main focus is on Trump's attitude.
In the evening, oil prices began to rebound, now around 82.5. Before this post, CME's expectation for a September rate hike is above 40%, having increased. US stock indices opened lower, and #Bitcoin briefly fell below $785; the $785 level is very critical.
Before Friday, oil prices must not continue to decline below the 80-82 range. Powell's speech will definitely not be positive; it will be hawkish, and rate hike expectations will further increase. Under this background, both US stocks and Bitcoin cannot remain unaffected. Let alone expect Bitcoin to reverse into a bull run.
If oil prices continue to decline around 80, it can dispel the September rate hike expectations; Powell may not be very hawkish, but the possibility of dovishness is low. The market impact should be manageable. Then we look at August inflation data (released in September).
In summary, it still depends on Trump's attitude, which is the trend of oil prices.
In any case, personally, I think it is a bit difficult for Bitcoin to have a good bull rebound now. The best scenario is oscillation between 77-81.
Once rate hike expectations rise, market sentiment will start to seek safety again.
DYOR8月27日，杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会正式开幕，新任美联储主席沃什的主旨演讲进入倒计时，加密市场也随之进入波动率敏感期。BTC在7.9-8.1万美元区间窄幅震荡，ETH在2430-2530美元宽幅拉锯，现货价格看似波澜不惊，衍生品市场却早已暗流涌动。期权市场的定价差异，比现货走势更真实地反映了资金对两大龙头的预期：BTC期权在买保险，ETH期权在赌方向，一稳一险之间，藏着政策窗口期最真实的资金态度。 BTC的期权市场，呈现出典型的"防御性配置"特征，资金在为不确定性买保险。数据显示，近一周BTC期权持仓量稳步攀升至年内高位，其中看跌期权的持仓占比从月初的38%升至44%，看涨看跌比率从1.7回落至1.3，说明资金在价格冲高至8万美元后，开始主动增加下行保护。隐含波动率方面，BTC的1周期隐含波动率从45%升至58%，但3个月期隐含波动率仅从52%升至56%，期限结构呈现"近高远低"的倒挂特征——资金只对杰克逊霍尔年会这一短期事件定价，对中长期走势的预期并未发生根本性改变。 更值得注意的是波动率微笑的形态。BTC期权的波动率微笑相对平缓，25delta看跌期权与看涨期权的隐含波动率差仅为3个What truly deserves concern about tonight's US data is not that a single figure exceeded expectations, but that **'sticky inflation + resilience in demand' are both present. ** July PCE rose +0.2% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, both above the market expectation of 3.6%; Core PCE rose +0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, showing no further decline. Meanwhile, U.S. Q2 GDP held steady at 1.5%, consumption performance was revised upward, and durable goods orders in July grew by 1.1%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of about 0.5%. What does this data mean? It's not that the US economy is overheated, but that the economy is not weak enough to force the Fed to pivot rapidly. Inflation remains significantly above the 2% target, and consumer and manufacturing demand have not collapsed significantly, so the cost of maintaining high interest rates for the Fed is not as high as the market previously imagined. After the data was released, the market priced in a 25BP rate hike in September rose to about 40%, the dollar strengthened, and US Treasury yields also rose. Gold was the first to come under pressure, with spot gold once falling about 1%. The logic is straightforward: rising real interest rate expectations → a stronger dollar→ higher opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets→ putting short-term pressure on gold. But this does not mean gold's long-term logic is reversing. Geopolitical risks, fiscal deficits, and central bank allocation demand still exist; it's just that short-term "rate cut trades" need to cool down. Now, chasing gold is clearly less favorable than before. BTC and ETH are no exception. BTC previously quickly broke through $80,000 from over $60,000, driven by ETF buying, a weaker dollar, and large-scale short covering, but