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The recent market trend of $DOGE superficially shows that altcoins and Dogecoin have both risen, but the core driver is still Bitcoin.
When BTC moves, market risk appetite returns. It's not just a simple rise in one candlestick; it's signaling to capital that mainstream assets have buyers, and shorts are starting to cover. Thus, capital spills over from BTC to ETH, then spreads to higher volatility coins, with DOGE naturally becoming one of the most sentiment-sensitive.
Dogecoin has performed well in this rally, but I don't think it suddenly gained strong fundamentals. It's more that the market has entered a phase willing to pay for high volatility, high emotion, and high propagation. BTC stabilizes, and DOGE gets room to perform; once BTC weakens, DOGE usually falls faster than the broader market.
So don't view DOGE's rise as a standalone new cycle signal. It's more like a mirror of sentiment: when everyone starts chasing Dogecoin, it means the market is no longer satisfied with earning certainty but is seeking higher odds.
The market can be optimistic, but don't get carried away with the pace. What really matters to watch is whether Bitcoin can hold steady and whether capital continues to flow from BTC to a broader range of altcoins $BTC $DOGE
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
"US Treasury Doubles Long-Term Debt Buybacks, $40 Trillion Debt Rolled Over"
Just now! The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond surged past 5.33%, hitting a 19-year high. The US Treasury urgently slammed the table, doubling the buyback cap for long-term bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion per session for maturities between 10 and 30 years.
The moment the news broke, the 30-year Treasury yield plunged 10 basis points to 5.18%, triggering a wave of stop-losses among heavy short positions on the market.
Looking under the Treasury's hood, there is no extra cash on hand; the real money for buying back long-term bonds comes entirely from aggressively issuing short-term Treasury bills with maturities under one year.
This is a classic Treasury maneuver to reverse the situation. They break down high-interest long-term debt into short-term debt to buy some breathing room. The total US debt of $40 trillion remains unchanged, with the fiscal deficit soaring to $432.3 billion in July alone, and annual debt interest payments consuming a full $1.2 trillion.
Short-term debt interest keeps compounding daily. Once short-term financing costs are locked in by high rates, this liquidity juggling act of robbing Peter to pay Paul could at any time push the more dangerous US debt sell-off pressure back onto the table. $BTC 本轮加密市场反弹，所有人都看清了一个核心事实：比特币突破7万是情绪修复，以太坊暴涨接近20%，才是本轮行情真正的主力动作。 同样的宏观环境、同样的资金流入，ETH涨幅直接碾压BTC，从1900关口暴力拉升突破2200、2300，走出近两个月最强单日反弹。 很多散户只看懂“大盘涨、山寨跟涨”，但看不懂ETH本轮独立补涨的底层核心逻辑。 作为穿越多轮牛熊的交易者，今天一次性拆解透彻：以太坊本轮暴涨，不是跟风，是多重确定性利好共振，是资本精准布局的结果。 一、宏观流动性宽松：风险资产最大红利落地 本轮行情启动的根源，来自美元流动性边际彻底宽松。 美国财政部正式放大招：长期国债回购规模翻倍，直接压低长端美债收益率。 对于加密市场逻辑非常简单： 利率下行 → 无收益风险资产估值修复 → 资金从避险资产流出 → 涌入币市、黄金等高弹性品种。 而以太坊的属性，本身就是高弹性风险资产。 BTC偏“数字黄金、避险储值”，走势稳、反弹慢； ETH偏“科技成长、生态标的”，流动性宽松环境下，弹性、爆发力、涨幅天然碾压比特币。 这是本轮ETH跑赢BTC的宏观底层逻辑。 二、史诗级空头踩踏：ETH逼空力度远超B🔥 What happened? From August 19 to 21, the crypto market experienced the most intense short squeeze of 2026: • $BTC surged from $68,900 to a high of $75,770, hitting a nearly two-month peak • $ETH simultaneously rose above $2,340, with a single-day gain approaching 20% • Over $3.3 billion liquidated across the network, with short liquidations exceeding $3 billion, marking the largest single-day short liquidation since 2021 More than 183,000 traders were wiped out, with short positions littering the battlefield. --- 💥 Who ignited this fire? Three forces resonated, pressing shorts to the ground: 1. White House major signal Trump met with crypto industry executives, stating the government has "completely ended the war on cryptocurrency," revealing discussions about accumulating a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin. 2. Treasury's liquidity gift The U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, directly lowering long-end yields and releasing liquidity. 3. $3 billion short squeeze Shorts were forcibly liquidated → forced to buy back → prices rose again → more shorts liquidated, creating a death spiral. --- 🤔 After the surge, will a crash come? Let's pour some cold water first: The essence of this surge is a short squeeze (mechanical rebound), not a fundamental reversal. After the $3 billion short positions were liquidated, the passive buying driving the price increase will naturally dry up. ⚠️ Current warning signals • Technical indicators overheating: Bitcoin RSI has entered the overbought zone (80.3) $BTC, $ETH Accelerate Upward: Who Is Building the Support?
Behind the accelerated rise, the real support being built is actually a handoff between two forces: first, the "short squeeze" rocket fuel ignited the rally; now whether it can hold depends on whether the "institutions and spot funds" can steadily take the baton.
⛽ Phase One: Short Squeeze Provides the Explosive Power
The most direct driver of this surge is an epic "short squeeze." Before the breakout, the market consolidated around $60,000 for a long time, with massive leveraged short positions accumulated in the derivatives market. Once the price broke through the key liquidation point upward, shorts were forced to cover (buy), triggering a chain reaction and generating huge short-term buying pressure. Analysts pointed out that over $3 billion worth of short positions were liquidated in this rebound, providing the "fuel" for the rise.
But this force is one-time only. When the "fuel" runs out, for the rally to continue, it must be taken over by real spot buying.
🏗️ Phase Two: Institutions and Positive Factors Build Sustainable Support
Now, the core of building medium- to long-term support lies in the following "structural forces" gaining momentum:
· Institutional capital positioning in advance: Before the surge, on-chain and OTC data already showed that institutions with listed company backgrounds and "ancient whales" were aggressively bottom-fishing around $60,000, laying the spot position foundation for the rebound.
· Macro liquidity improvement: The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repos, pushing down long-end yields, improving overall risk appetite, and providing liquidity support for crypto assets.
· Regulatory expectations becoming clearer: The U.S. SEC released a new regulatory framework, the White House held a crypto summit and called for advancing the "CLARITY Act," policy tailwinds boosted market confidence, attracting incremental funds to reassess crypto assets.
📊 The Critical "Validation Window"
Currently, the market is at a crucial validation window: after the short squeeze buying fades, whether real spot demand, $ETF inflows, and trading volume can keep pace. The mainstream view now is to watch if $BTC can hold the 71,000 area as support and if $ETH can defend the $2,300 level.
In summary, the short squeeze ignited the first fire, but what can keep the flames burning are the "firewood" of institutional capital, macro environment, and policy expectations. The key to the rally’s sustainability lies in whether this firewood can be continuously added.After the latest financial report of 泡泡玛特
I think the market is no longer really concerned about whether Labubu can still sell, but rather who will take over after Labubu.
In the first half of 2026, the company's revenue reached approximately ¥17.17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, and net profit was about ¥5.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 10%. The numbers are still growing, but compared to the explosive period of Labubu in the past, the growth rate has clearly slowed down, and overseas revenue has declined.
The good news is that 泡泡玛特 is also actively reducing its reliance on a single IP.
The new Twinkle Twinkle is growing rapidly and currently contributes about 15% of revenue. The company also announced plans for a share buyback of ¥2 billion to ¥5 billion RMB in the future.
So I think this financial report is not bad; it feels more like entering the next stage.
Previously, the market bought into Labubu's explosion; now the market wants to see if 泡泡玛特 can truly become a company that continuously creates global IPs. If the second and third major IPs can connect, the valuation logic will have a chance to reopen.
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ $POPMART $SNDK $OKB #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ \
#财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, which business line do you favor more?
Pengcheng is a line I am willing to give some patience to, but today's surge does not mean it has already won.
In the conference call, Lu Weibing said that Pengcheng's user base overlaps with SU7/YU7 by only 10%+, representing a new price segment and incremental market, launched in September with orders exceeding expectations. This is real incremental growth, not internal cannibalization.
The risk lies in: the extended-range market declined by 13% year-on-year over six months, with 85 models competing for the same batch of customers. Pengcheng needs to fill a 550,000 target gap, requiring an average of 45,000 units per month, heavily relying on its volume growth.
In the short term, I admit I was wrong; in the medium term, I still watch to see if it can truly narrow losses. Until verified, I will not turn bullish.
$XIAOMI White House Summit: Trump Says He Discussed Buying BTC
This might also be one of the most noteworthy pieces of news behind this sudden acceleration of BTC.
On August 19, Trump held a meeting at the White House with executives from the crypto industry and financial institutions, including representatives from Coinbase, Ripple, Nasdaq, as well as officials from the SEC and CFTC.
Trump reiterated that the U.S. must maintain its leading position in the Bitcoin and Crypto space, while pushing forward the CLARITY Act.
What the market is more focused on is that Trump also mentioned the possibility of the U.S. government further expanding its Bitcoin holdings. The U.S. has already established a strategic Bitcoin reserve, mainly from government-held BTC, and an executive order allows the Treasury and Commerce Departments to explore additional BTC acquisition methods "without increasing taxpayer costs."
The real significance of this lies in expectations.
Previously, the market debated whether the U.S. would ban Bitcoin; now the discussion has shifted to whether the U.S. government will continue to increase its Bitcoin reserves.
If in the future the approach moves from "seizing assets to form reserves" to actively increasing BTC holdings, the U.S. government's stance on Bitcoin will change again.
This is also why when BTC breaks through $70,000 these days, the capital reacts so quickly.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC BTC Is Moving — But Is Crypto Really Back? 🚨
BTC just ripped 7.79% to $74,782, but I’m not convinced this is a full-blown crypto risk-on move yet.
ETH is up 4.56% and SOL 5.58% — solid gains, but both are still noticeably behind BTC.
To me, this looks more like a BTC-led positioning reset than broad speculative rotation.
For now, BTC remains the cleanest expression of the market while macro uncertainty stays elevated.
#DailyOrbit $BTC Currently around 74,770, my holding cost is around 75,188.9, estimated strong parity is 73,759.9, and there is still about 106 USDT unrealized loss. To start with the conclusion: I won't keep holding out on to this long position, nor will I treat the forced parity price as a stop-loss price. My stop-loss arrangement: First risk line: 74,400—74,450. This is the main support zone for the five-minute and fifteen-minute sideways consolidation structures, and also the area where short-term moving averages are concentrated. If the five-minute physical body breaks below this range and the next candlestick rebound still fails to recover, I will first reduce my position by 50%. This indicates that the current volume reduction consolidation has not turned into accumulation, and short-term support is starting to lose effect. Final hard stop-loss: mark the price near 74,280. All remaining positions are sold here, without waiting for the fifteen-minute close, and certainly not waiting for the price to approach the strong flat line of 73,759.9. The logic is simple: the 15-minute trend support level is roughly between 74,260 and 74,400. A drop to around 74,280 indicates that the price has broken through the lower boundary of the consolidation consolidation, breaking the short-term structure of higher and lower points. Even if it later rises again, it will be another transaction, rather than continuing to find reasons for current mistakes. It is recommended to use the mark price to trigger the stop loss and close the position at the market price, avoiding the price that has already approached the strong closing line before the latest transaction price has been triggered. My profit-taking arrangement: this time, I won't just set a distant target, but will handle it in three phases. First take-profit zone: 75,150—75,250, reduce position by 40%.📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 21)
Frequent directional switches, very small volume, an invalid market typical of low liquidity assets...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $135.37 $0 $135.37
4 hours $1,978.99 $1,648.34 $330.65
12 hours $9,266.52 $2,657.72 $6,608.80
24 hours $26,400 $3,186.64 $23,200
From CORE liquidation data: in 1 hour shorts monopolized the market, longs had zero liquidation, volume only $135, a tentative short squeeze; in 4 hours the direction reversed, long liquidations crushed shorts, longs were 5 times shorts, volume jumped to $1,648, longs briefly took over; in 12 hours direction reversed again, short liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 2.5 times longs, volume rose to $6,608, shorts regained dominance; in 24 hours short advantage expanded, short liquidations $23,200 vs. long $3,200, shorts were 7.3 times longs, total liquidation only $26,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 35% of the 24-hour total, medium concentration. Direction switched four times over 1h, 4h, 12h, and 24h, longs and shorts repeatedly exchanged control, combined with extremely low absolute volume (less than $30,000 in 24h), typical retail trading in a low liquidity asset, no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, this asset has very poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading reference.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 21
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: capital is simultaneously seeking new pricing anchors in three different tracks—whether Bitcoin's short squeeze can turn into a bull market, whether Anthropic's trillion-dollar valuation can sustain the AI bubble, and whether Pop Mart's IP iteration can transcend cycles.
₿ BTC Accelerates Rally: $3.3 Billion Shorts Vaporized, But Short Squeeze Momentum Is Fading
Bitcoin rose over 14% in two days, breaking $73,000. Over $3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours.
However, market data shows new leveraged long funds have not yet entered on a large scale. This rally is still mainly driven by short covering; perpetual futures open interest has not significantly rebounded. Whether Bitcoin can continue higher increasingly depends on spot buying and ETF inflows taking over. On the 19th, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $517 million, but ETF investors’ average holding cost is about $82,465, still overall at a loss. After the short squeeze, the real test is just beginning.
🤖 Anthropic Plans to File IPO Documents by End of August: Fundraising May Surpass SpaceX, Valuation Targets $1.5-2 Trillion
Insiders reveal Anthropic expects to publicly submit IPO documents as early as the end of August, with fundraising possibly matching or exceeding SpaceX’s record $7.5-8.62 billion, targeting a valuation of $1.5-2 trillion.
In May this year, Anthropic completed $65 billion financing, valued at $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion. By the end of July, annualized revenue exceeded $65 billion.
Founded only five years ago, aiming for the largest IPO in history. When the secondary market prices it at $2 trillion, the market is betting not on current profits but on AI’s complete restructuring of the enterprise market.
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Still First, Star People Soar 580% to Take Over
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit 5.16 billion yuan, up 9.5%; gross margin 69.7%. But revenue was below market estimate of 19.98 billion yuan.
IP landscape drastically reshaped. THE MONSTERS series featuring LABUBU generated 4.45 billion yuan, still first; new IP "Star People" revenue 2.65 billion yuan, soaring 580.6% year-on-year, becoming the second largest IP. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine, revenue 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2%. The board announced a first buyback plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan. LABUBU slows down, Star People takes over—the lifecycle management of IP is undergoing its toughest test.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: after Bitcoin’s $3.3 billion short squeeze, whether it can attract real spot buying is key; CORE contract market’s total liquidation is less than $30,000 all day with frequent directional switches, typical low liquidity invalid market with no reference value; Anthropic’s $2 trillion valuation challenges the largest IPO ever, redefining the limits of the AI bubble; Pop Mart’s LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, IP succession is ongoing. Capital is seeking direction simultaneously in three tracks—when the short squeeze fades, IPO volume peaks, and IP shifts gears, who will be the true successor? #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #BTC accelerating its rise, can the funds continue to take over?
This wave of BTC's violent surge
A large part of the momentum comes from short squeeze covering, combined with ETF capital inflows, which directly ignited sentiment.
The most critical question now: after the short squeeze finishes, can new buying support hold the high-level chips?
$BTC has directly rushed to a strong resistance zone in the short term; after continuous sharp rallies, indicators have entered overbought territory, and a wick pullback could occur at any time.
Optimistic scenario: if it can hold above 74000, and ETFs continue to see capital inflows, there is a chance to test the 78000‑79000 resistance level.
Risk point: if incremental funds can't keep up and the buying from previous short squeeze exhaustion runs out, a quick pullback to the 68000‑70000 support zone is very likely.
Now is not the time to chase highs for profits; high-level volatility will amplify, so profits should be taken in batches, and avoid holding through back-and-forth wicks.
$ETH's rebound elasticity this round is stronger than BTC's; the ETH/BTC ratio is rising, funds are clearly rotating into Ethereum, and ETFs are also seeing large inflows.
But it’s important to distinguish: part of this is driven by overall market sentiment, and part is catalyzed by its own regulatory benefits.
Bullish logic: as long as the key support at 2200 holds, there is still room to rise, and it will continue to follow BTC in an elastic market.
Risk logic: if BTC experiences a pullback, ETH's retracement is often larger than BTC's. If BTC oscillates at high levels without continuous capital rotation, Ethereum is likely to show relative weakness.The $ETH move is bigger than the Hyperliquid narrative. Three forces are coming together: 1️⃣ Ethereum had been heavily discounted, with traders questioning whether competitors could take its market share. 2️⃣ The DEX + stablecoin narrative is strengthening. If decentralized markets and stablecoins become more central to the U.S. crypto framework, Ethereum’s infrastructure could benefit—including ecosystems built around its technology. 3️⃣ Supply dynamics matter. Lower potential selling pressureMainstream coins are all up in the last 24 hours with 12 fully in the green, averaging +8.59%. 79% of the entire market is rising, with $XRP +20% and $ADA +15% leading the gains. This is a broad rally, not a single-point event. Many attribute the cause to the midterm elections, but this needs clarification: the election is on November 3, more than two months away, and it will determine whether the CLARITY Act can ultimately be implemented. That is a variable for November, not the reason for this August rally. The real triggers are threefold: the Treasury announced that long-term bond buybacks will double from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, effective September 9, causing long-term yields to drop; the White House held a crypto meeting; and the government is pushing Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The news is just the matchstick; what really pushed prices up were the shorts. On August 19, the entire market liquidated $2.99 billion, 91.6% of which were short positions. My own contract data confirms this: despite the large price increase, open interest barely rose and funding rates dropped to nearly zero. The driving force was forced short covering, not new long entries. After the shorts have burned out, it remains to be seen if real money will take over. Who is fueling this surge in Bitcoin?
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market seemed ignited. Bitcoin surged from around 64,000 directly through 70,000, Ethereum approached 2,300, rising nearly 19% in 24 hours. 180,000 people were liquidated, with $3.2 billion in positions wiped out in one wave.
Who is lighting the fire? It's not a single positive factor, but three things combined resonating together.
On August 19, it was announced that the scale of 10 to 30-year Treasury buybacks would double, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to plunge sharply from 5.337% to around 5.19%, while gold soared $125 in a single day. Bitcoin reacted even faster, jumping from 64,000 directly to 70,000. The signal conveyed is crucial — there is an implicit ceiling on long-term rates, the government will intervene to support, liquidity expectations improve, and Bitcoin is the most sensitive to this.
Trump publicly called out trades. The White House met with executives from Coinbase, Kraken, and other crypto companies, urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The top-level stance is clearly shifting. The head of research at Standard Chartered put it bluntly: increased Treasury support at the back end is exactly the signal Bitcoin wants to see, maintaining the year-end target of 100,000 USD.
Short positions accumulated over half a year were wiped out in one go. Bitcoin had been hovering around 60,000 for the past six months, with a large buildup of shorts. After breaking through key resistance, a short squeeze spiral started — the more it rose, the more it flattened; the more it flattened, the more it rose. $1.44 billion in shorts were liquidated within an hour.
The combination of these three factors validates a transmission chain: fiscal policy signals → decline in long-term rates → risk asset revaluation → resonance between crypto spot and derivatives.$BTC breaks through 75,000, with $3 billion shorts liquidated. Is this a short squeeze rebound or a trend reversal? Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin has been consolidating between 62,000 and 66,900. Market sentiment was frozen cold, with the fear index dropping to rock bottom. Everyone was shorting. The perpetual contract funding rate remained negative for a long time, and shorts pushed leverage to the extreme. Then— On the evening of August 19, BTC surged straight up from 64,000, reaching a high of 75,700 today. In 24 hours, $3.3 billion was liquidated, with shorts accounting for $3.07 billion. Nearly 200,000 people were wiped out in one wave. This is the largest liquidation wave since 2021. Then everyone asked the same question: Can this rally continue? Will there be a mess after the short squeeze? My judgment is— The short squeeze is the gunpowder, policy is the fuse, and ETFs are the fuel. A short squeeze alone cannot sustain a trend. But with the resonance of all three, this rally might last longer than most people imagine. Three signals, judge for yourself. Signal one: ETF net inflows for three consecutive days, $517 million in a single day on August 19 This is not short-term speculative capital. On August 19, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $517 million, the highest single-day record since May 4. Net inflows for three consecutive days. BlackRock IBIT attracted $285 million in a single day. Institutions are building positions with real money. Signal two: White House crypto meeting + Treasury expands bond repurchase On August 19, Trump met with Coinbase, Ri at the White House Roosevelt Room #WhiteHouseSummit: Trump says he discussed buying BTC
The White House held a summit, and Trump publicly said, "We talked about buying Bitcoin."
As soon as he said that, Bitcoin surged again, now at 74,000.
These two characters used to be considered "financial terrorists," but now the president himself says he wants it as a reserve asset.
This is the underlying tone of this market cycle—there's no narrative of a peak yet.
But don't get too excited; he only said they "discussed it."
Between "discussing" and "actually spending real money to buy," there's Congress, budgets, and a lot of back-and-forth.
On the institutional side, ETFs are seriously picking up, with three consecutive days of net inflows.
So my judgment is that Trump's words will keep fueling market imagination, but whether Bitcoin can hold its ground depends on institutions voting with real money.
$BTC Scene asking about the nature of BTC's rebound: Altcoins have not yet been confirmed. Why can't altcoins follow even though the market is rising? BTC is continuing its rebound to about $74,700, and ETH to about $2,358, reflecting improved liquidity expectations in the price. However, even within the same upward trend, the weak altcoin group remains in a vulnerable position. BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, SNDK, etc., need stronger demand signals to confirm their rebound. The key question is whether this movement is a simple rebound or the beginning of a recovery phase spreading across the entire asset class. Currently, the price structure confirms the rise of BTC and ETH, but recovery across altcoins as a whole has not been confirmed. What the market is actually reflecting is not a "broad altcoin rally" but rather a "difference in expectations for the top liquidity assets, BTC and ETH." In other words, current prices are closer to a selective response to improved liquidity conditions rather than a recovery in risk appetite. From the perspective of event repricing, the market has already factored in liquidity【For this ETH market cycle, I only focus on one signal】Many people watch ETH's daily price changes by a few points but overlook that the real factor influencing the trend is capital flow. Recently, ETH has been oscillating repeatedly at high levels, and market divergence is growing. However, it is precisely during such phases that the next wave's direction is most likely decided. My observation is that as long as mainstream capital does not show obvious outflows, the oscillation looks more like a chip exchange rather than a trend ending. Many people like to chase highs and sell lows, ending up turning profits into losses; truly stable traders plan ahead and execute according to rhythm. ETH is not just a coin but an important foundation for many public chain ecosystems and DeFi applications, so every time the market warms up, it usually regains attention. My strategy remains to control position size, wait patiently, and not let emotions dictate trades. There is no 100% certain market in crypto, but you can increase your probability of being right. Do you think ETH will break new highs next or continue to consolidate? Feel free to discuss in the comments. #ETH #Ethereum #OuyiPlanet #Cryptocurrency #CryptoMarketWatch$BTC Current price is around 74,560; after a rally of 75,770, it entered a high-level consolidation. My live trading still has a floating loss of about 160 USDT, with the position cost line around 75,188, and the estimated Strong Dollar price at 73,759.9. To start with the conclusion: the one-hour upward structure has not been broken, but the short-term trend has not rebounded either. Right now, it's a shrinking recovery on volume, not a confirmed reversal. From the market perspective: the one-hour level is still above the main moving averages, indicating a bullish trend, but the RSI remains relatively high, indicating that further upward movement requires new volume support. After a 15-minute pullback, the price consolidated sideways, holding around 74,400–74,500, but still under pressure in the 74,650–74,800 range. Five-minute volume has clearly contracted, and the RSI has returned to neutral territory, indicating that active selling pressure has temporarily weakened, but new active buying has not truly appeared. Currently, the candlestick hasn't finished yet, so you can't use the unfinished volume bars to directly judge whether the volume is rising or falling. My conditions are clear: to re-level above 74,700–74,800, then pull back to 74,550–74,600 without breaking below to consider a short-term recovery established. Continue to observe the 75,188 cost zone and the high resistance before 75,500–75,770. After a rally, it fell back below 74,400, indicating insufficient support. I will prioritize reducing position risk. The fifteen-minute physical price falls below 74,300, or marks the price near 74,200, marking the trade$ENA has shifted from a governance token to a locked staking profit-sharing mechanism, combined with institutional credit facilities boosting value capture expectations. However, the low circulation ratio and concentrated holdings mean the market is driven by capital rather than pure fundamentals.
On the market front, $ENA has a total supply of 15 billion tokens, with about 2.7 billion currently circulating, accounting for only 18% of the total. The top 10 holders control between 55% and 60%, and on August 18, a single address moved 5 million tokens (approximately $550,000), indicating a tight circulation supply.
The driving factors in order are: a strong market and ETH establishing a risk appetite base; on August 19, Ethena and FalconX launched a $1 billion institutional credit facility to expand USDe institutional pathways; and on August 17, the yield-generating asset locked staking profit-sharing mechanism started, locking in buying expectations.
The bullish scenario triggers if the price holds within the 0.115 to 0.118 range and volume increases on the 1-hour chart to stop the decline. Coupled with an ETH-driven ecosystem revaluation, the first upward target is 0.13 to 0.135, with a mid-term logical target of $0.5 to $1. Considering the team and institutions have about 5 billion tokens (33% of total) locked until September 2026, there is no large-scale unlocking pressure in the short term.
The bearish scenario triggers if market volatility causes Delta-neutral hedging and liquidation risks, leading to risk-off capital outflows. If the price fails to hold above the 0.112 floating profit protection level, the large holders controlling 55% to 60% may cash out in the short term, testing liquidity downward.
The invalidation signal is a price break below the 0.108 stop-loss line. Once broken, it indicates that the bullish logic of institutional credit facilities and yield transformation is completely offset by market risk, and the long position scenario fails.
In the next 7 days, focus on confirming the pullback within the 0.115 to 0.118 range, as well as the holding changes and capital flows of the top 10 addresses.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认I believe everyone has been shocked by the recent Bitcoin $BTC rally. In just three days, BTC surged 13,000 points, climbing from 62,800 straight up to 75,800. This wave of increase can be described as quite violent. However, the stronger the rally, the more we need to stay calm. The 75,800 level has already reached a strong resistance zone. Where is the short-term rebound peak for Bitcoin in this round? First, we need to understand that this big surge was not driven by a massive influx of new funds into the market, but mainly by three combined forces: short squeeze, liquidity release from U.S. Treasury repos, and regulatory benefits. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached as high as 3.3 billion USD, with short liquidations close to 3 billion. Simply put, this rally was largely forced by a short squeeze. Once the shorts are basically cleared out, the subsequent buying power will significantly weaken. From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart already shows a clear volume-price divergence, and a short-term correction may occur. The 75,800 level is the weekly descending trendline and also the upper edge of a historical dense chip area. Fibonacci levels, weekly resistance, and historical trapped chips—all three pressures converge here. Therefore, my judgment is that the short-term rebound peak in this round will most likely be near 75,800. Looking at funds and sentiment, the market's long sentiment is already clearly overheated. The funding rate has surged to the highest level in 20 months. The last time this happened was in January 2025, when BTC was at a phase top The real test of Pop Mart's financial report is not whether Labubu is still popular, but whether it can transform from a "hit product company" into an "IP factory." Revenue was still growing in the first half of the year, but the growth rate has clearly shifted gears, and there is pressure overseas as well. THE MONSTERS, which includes Labubu, has seen a decline in its share, while new IPs like Twinkle Twinkle are rising quickly. The management has also proposed a buyback plan. The market actually understands this: the company no longer wants everyone to focus solely on one ugly-cute doll. I think this step is crucial. The hardest part of trendy toys is not just having one hit, but continuously creating new characters, new scenes, and new reasons for consumption after the hit. A single IP going viral brings valuation premiums but also fatigue; a relay of multiple IPs is the real business moat. But having multiple IPs is not just about displaying more characters. It must prove that users don’t just love Labubu, but are willing to pay long-term for Pop Mart’s worldview. This is the real issue after the growth shift. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Bitcoin continues to rise slowly, but leverage levels remain surprisingly subdued.
Open interest has steadily declined from about 485k to around 475k, while BTC price is pushing higher.
Both futures CVD and spot CVD completed major moves during the initial pump but have since stabilized.
The funding rate remains neutral and flat at 0.0006.
The interesting part lies in the spot buy-sell flow.
The spot buy-sell spread is still heavily negative, but spot CVD remains near its highs, and the price continues to climb.
A large amount of selling is being absorbed without causing significant downward pressure.
So far, this looks more like spot absorption + leverage reduction rather than aggressive new longs chasing the rally.
A healthier structure than leverage expansion.If Anthropic really pushes forward the IPO filing around the end of August, the most exciting part is not the fundraising scale
but that AI companies are starting to directly challenge the pricing power of super assets like SpaceX.
Anthropic's revenue growth is extremely exaggerated, and the IPO expectations have been continuously raised by the market. But I think we shouldn't just watch the spectacle. AI model companies and SpaceX are not the same kind of business: one burns computing power, competing on enterprise renewals and model iteration; the other is a mix of rockets, Starlink, AI computing power, and government contracts. Both are expensive, but in completely different ways.
Investors now face a very real question:
Should they chase a model company with runaway revenue but also runaway costs, or chase a SpaceX whose valuation is already mythologized and has a very tight float? This is not a simple binary choice story; it is a litmus test of risk appetite.
The bigger the AI IPO, the more it forces the market to admit one thing:
The future is not that there are no good companies, but that good companies may also be so expensive they make people nervous.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX Why is the market so excited about the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases?
$BTC
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, it will at least double the liquidity support repurchase scale for 10–20 year and 20–30 year Treasury bonds, raising the single operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion.
After the news came out, the market easily interpreted it as "the Treasury starting to flood the market with money":
Long-term bonds rise, yields fall, gold strengthens, and BTC also gains risk appetite support.
But one thing must be clarified here:
Treasury bond repurchase ≠ Federal Reserve printing money.
The Treasury repurchasing old bonds is essentially a debt structure adjustment, not creating dollars out of thin air.
The Treasury itself clearly stated in the financing materials submitted to TBAC that repurchases will not significantly change the net Treasury financing scale that the private sector needs to absorb, because the repurchased securities will be replaced by new Treasury issuances.
Simply put:
The Treasury first buys up less liquid old long-term bonds from the market, then replenishes financing through issuing new bonds, Treasury bills, etc.
Old bonds are repurchased, new bonds continue to be issued, and the government's overall financing demand does not disappear because of this.
What really changes is:
👉 Long-term debt → Easier-to-roll short-term debt
This impact on the market is actually worth paying attention to.
On one hand, the Treasury actively repurchasing old long-term bonds can improve liquidity in the long-end Treasury market, ease discounts between old and new bonds, and help lower some long-term yields.
On the other hand, if more future financing relies on Bills and short-term bonds, then the U.S. government’s debt will become more dependent on "rolling refinancing."
If interest rates remain high for a long time, the Treasury’s financing costs will reprice faster to current rate levels.
So this should not be simply understood as:
"Treasury repurchasing bonds = market liquidity explosion = altcoin season is here."
It’s not that simple.
This policy is more like sending a very clear signal:
The U.S. Treasury is actively managing liquidity and maturity structure in the long-end Treasury market.
This is somewhat positive for BTC.
Because falling long-term yields and marginally improved financial conditions will boost market risk appetite.
But for altcoins, the logic is still missing the last link:
A truly large-scale altcoin rally requires sustained dollar liquidity, leverage expansion, and net capital inflows.
And bond repurchases themselves do not create an equivalent scale of new dollars.
So I tend to believe:
Short term — positive for BTC and gold, risk asset sentiment continues to improve.
Medium term — if long-end yields keep falling, BTC may continue to benefit.
Altcoins — still need to observe if real liquidity keeps up; cannot judge a full altcoin season just based on this repurchase.
Even from a trading rhythm perspective, the first wave of yield decline triggered by the announcement may partially retrace in the next few trading days, which is not surprising.
BTC’s retained gains will likely outperform most altcoins.
So what’s most worth watching now is not "Is the Treasury flooding the market with money?" but:
Whether long-term yields can truly continue to decline, and whether dollar liquidity is really starting to spread to risk assets.
Until these two signals are confirmed, BTC can be viewed as relatively strong, but altcoins are not yet at a stage for blind chasing. #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX The biggest fear of BTC's recent surge is not that it rises too fast
but that everyone misinterprets "short squeeze" as "long-term capital relay."
BTC has been very strong in the past few days, with short positions being aggressively eliminated, and ETFs and crypto stocks also being pulled up together. On the surface, it looks like capital has returned, but what I want to see more is: in this wave of buying, how much is truly long-term allocation, and how much is just forced covering and chasing the rally sentiment.
A short squeeze can ignite the market, but it can't sustain it.
What really makes the market go far is that after a pullback, there are still people stepping in. ETF capital is not a one-day trip, leverage shouldn't be piled up too high again, and policy benefits shouldn't just stay at conferences and slogans. Short-term surges are certainly exciting, but especially at times like this, it's crucial to distinguish between "price running fast" and "capital standing firm."
BTC is not lacking sentiment now.
What it lacks is money that can stick with it through weeks of volatility without running away.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ ETF INFLOWS ARE SLOWING — BUT PRICES AREN’T
Institutional capital has not left crypto yet.$BTC ETF inflows have dropped from +$517.19M to +$103.30M, while $ETH fell from +$189.15M to just +$11.57M. Yet $BTC is still holding around $74.47K, with $ETH near $2,347.
Prices are rising faster than new ETF capital is entering. If they remain elevated despite weaker inflows, the market may be shifting from ETF-led momentum to internal capital rotation and broader market momentum.BTC officially broke through the $69,000 mark, reaching as high as $69,888 intraday, just a step away from the key psychological level of $70,000. Meanwhile, ETH surged in sync, with a single-day increase of over 8%, climbing to around $2,119. 🚀 The direct trigger for this rally came from the U.S. Treasury. Authorities announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, which quickly pushed down long-term interest rates, with the 30-year Treasury yield sharply falling from the previous 19-year high of 5.33% to around 5%. The easing of rate expectations provided breathing room for risk assets, leading to strong buying in the crypto market. From a market structure perspective, BTC holding above $69,000 is significant. In recent weeks, this range has repeatedly acted as resistance, and this volume breakout indicates bulls are in control. If the $70,000 level can be effectively confirmed later, it could open new upside potential; conversely, if it pulls back after the surge, caution is needed for short-term profit-taking pressure. ETH's strong performance is also noteworthy. The 8% gain not only outpaced BTC but also reflects an overall improvement in market risk appetite. Rotation of funds among major coins is often seen as a precursor to broader market expansion. However, the overall follow-through from altcoins remains to be seen, and it is not yet confirmed that this is the start of a full bull market. On the macro level, the direction of U.S. Treasury yields remains a key variable. If repurchase operations continue to suppress long-term rates The BTC bottom has clearly entered a "confirmation" phase.
Today marks a very obvious second confirmation in the entire bottom tracking process:
* BTC $73,058, already 13.94% above the 200WMA;
* MVRV-Z recently rose to 0.68, starting to recover from extremely undervalued levels to normal valuation, but still far from overheating;
* 1k–10k BTC whales increased by +13,472 in 7 days, +14,870 BTC in 30 days;
* The overall 30-day net for the three tiers of 10–10k BTC is still +19,587 BTC;
* The latest single-day inflow for the US spot BTC ETF is about +$517M, indicating this breakout is not just due to short squeeze liquidations.
The probability that "60K–64K has formed the final bottom area of this cycle" has increased to:
About 80%–85%.
The most likely market path now is no longer to retest 52K, but:
Digesting a $3B short squeeze near 73K → Pullback to 67–70K → If this holds, it confirms the 60–64K bottom and enters the next trend recovery phase.
Starting today, I believe the key focus should be whether the 67K–70K range can complete the resistance-to-support flip. If this area is successfully confirmed in the next 1–2 weeks, the next stage of bottom research should officially shift from "finding the bottom" to "judging whether this recovery can ultimately reach 80K, 90K, or retest previous highs." Ethereum scaling makes mainnet and Layer 2 transactions increasingly cheaper, which is an improvement in user experience.
The controversy lies in the fact that lower fees also reduce ETH burning. Whether a more prosperous ecosystem necessarily makes ETH more valuable still depends on whether usage growth can outpace the decline in value capture.A violent breakthrough at $70,000! But I advise you not to FOMO, this is the real truth!
Volume surged 2.6 times, with $2.7 billion liquidated shorts; the script is not as simple as you think!
Bitcoin has finally stood above $70,000, and the whole network is shouting that the bull market is back. But I urge you to stay calm—the core driving force behind this breakout is the macro liquidity expectation brought by the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repos, not the crypto market's own endogenous buying.
Look at the data: the number of transactions jumped from 1.6 million to 4.16 million, indicating that a large number of shorts were forcibly liquidated, contributing the main trading volume. This is a typical short squeeze, not a healthy demand-driven rally. CryptoQuant data shows spot demand has turned positive but remains limited in scale.
My judgment is: the $70,000 level will be tested repeatedly, and there is a high probability of a pullback for confirmation. Historically, volume breakouts have a low success rate for short-term chasing.
What should players do? If you are out of position, don't rush to chase; wait for a pullback to $67,000–$69,000 to enter in batches; if you have a position, consider reducing holdings to lock in profits around $73,000–$75,000; for contract traders, now is definitely the time to deleverage or even stay out and observe.
Remember: short squeezes make money from panic, trend markets make money from cognition. Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal; watch and wait as you go, that is the best strategy $BTC $ETH $SOL One detail worth mentioning: in this 24h period of massive liquidations across the entire network, over 90% hit short positions. This indicates that a large part of the fuel driving the price surge comes from forced liquidations of shorts "helping" to buy, rather than from sustained new buying demand. This kind of liquidation-driven rally comes on strong but its endurance is questionable—once the fuel burns out, it depends on whether real capital takes over. So I never take a "one-sided liquidation leaderboard" as a reason to keep chasing; instead, I see it as a reminder that sentiment has reached an extreme. As for $BTC, let's see how genuine this move really is.The red letters on the chess clock flickered, yet Musallam, sitting in the most conservative hearing seat, launched a July "pawn sacrifice". He suggested raising interest rates now—not for the immediate checkmate, but to avoid having to trade the entire king's wing for a breather at some future point.
In chess, this is called a prophylactic exchange. You proactively trade a structural weakness to exchange your opponent's deep space, preventing them from assembling a double rook in the middlegame. The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are like two extreme annotations in an opening system: White sees a diagonal attack of overheated prices, Black sees a retreat trap in the labor market. No one wants to admit they are just repeatedly dismantled variations of the same line.
Not everyone can see the far-reaching implications of this July move. Opponents who only focus on the immediate king's wing will see it as a reckless gamble, unaware that it is precisely to drag the game into an endgame they are familiar with. The more intense the officials' disputes, the more ambiguous the chess position becomes—on the same board, one side is playing out the persistent siege of inflation, while the other guards the fragile king's castle of growth. No one can protect both flanks simultaneously in the middlegame.
And the pricing of risk assets is waiting for this kind of analysis. Players watch $xAAPL like spectators in a metropolitan game fixate on the "lone pawn" that might decide the endgame—each step forward is interpreted as a forecast of the situation, and with every move, the market quietly adjusts its theoretical library. Everyone knows the real killer move never happens at the moment you see it, but after all verifiable variations have been exhausted.
Musallam's implication is called "early cost control" in game theory. Rather than being forced to sacrifice pieces when inflation becomes a double-rook checkmate, it's better to trade off a less important pawn in the middlegame. Grandmasters know that the initiative in the opening is a tangible asset, but if you never convert it into an endgame advantage, it only becomes a weary wait.
But where players diverge is this: some calculate the dark lines of the queenside, others only see the king's wing pawns. When officials hold opposing views, the market can only toss back and forth between every "what if". From interest rate paths to economic growth, from the linkage of core assets like $xAAPL to the pricing of all risk assets—everything is like the unresolved open file in the center of the board: seemingly unclaimed, but in fact, each side is preparing to occupy it with invisible pawns at any moment. The monthly cycle means this is not a short-range tactical skirmish, but a strategic shift in the entire middlegame.
What Musallam at the Fed is pushing is not a radical move, but a "cost paid in advance for the endgame." He would rather endure some contraction pain now to exchange for avoiding the humiliation of "continuous heavy blows" in the future. This July pawn sacrifice is truly aimed not at inflation, but at the market's patience.
#ImpactCycle·Monthly #MonetaryPolicy·RateHikeDisagreement #JulyRateHikeSuggestion TIA (Celestia) Q2 data availability calls increased by 310% year-over-year, and the number of ecosystem Rollups tripled.
Then the night session plummeted over 10%, with market cap evaporating by more than 3.5 billion.
Data exploded, price exploded, both happening simultaneously.
The reason is straightforward: 62 million TIA tokens unlocked this week, with early contributors and investors selling off heavily.
Also, modular validation delays still fluctuate during peak times; the team says heat protection (performance) has been optimized, but the market is skeptical.
This is the harsh reality of the secondary market: once all the good news is priced in, it turns bearish. After the unlock sell-off, will you get on board or wait and see? #Celestia $TIA Sei's on-chain transaction volume reached $38 billion in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 220%, with daily active addresses surging by 175%.
Then the night session plummeted over 7.5%, wiping out more than $2.5 billion in market value.
Data exploded, price exploded, both happening simultaneously.
The reason is straightforward: 150 million SEI tokens were unlocked this week, with early institutions and market makers taking profits.
There are still doubts about the order book matching engine's delay issues under extreme market conditions; the official statement claims it has been resolved, but the market seems skeptical.
This is the harsh reality of the secondary market: once all the good news is priced in, it turns bearish. After the selling pressure is exhausted, will you get on board or wait and see? #Sei $SEI #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
Regarding Pop Mart's mid-year report, my view leans bearish.
First, the fundamentals: revenue of 17.17 billion seems to have grown 23.8%, but the market expected 19.98 billion, a full 2.8 billion short; net profit of 5.16 billion only reached about 70% of expectations.
The data is actually below expectations. The company itself has admitted it will likely miss the 20% growth target and said 2026 will be a "year of operational adjustment," with sales volume not the top priority—this is basically a warning to the market that growth is shifting gears.
Additionally, inventory turnover has nearly doubled from 123 days to 201 days. You might say it's overseas stocking, but the market may not buy into that efficiency.
To be honest, what makes me more bearish is not just this quarter's report, but the nature of this business.
Think about it: something costing less than 10 yuan can only be sold for 59 or 99 yuan, how easy is that money to make? The key is it’s still a blind box model—you open one and have no idea what you’ll get; if you want the popular ones, you have to keep buying. How is this different from gambling?
To put it bluntly, domestic retail investors are truly endless; many people throw money in just to get a hidden figure. Whether this business has a high ceiling or not is another matter, but in the long run, with regulators watching and players gradually losing interest, it’s not sustainable.
In the short term, buybacks might support the price and stabilize sentiment, but in the medium to long term, I remain cautious and bearish.
$POPMART Today's structural assessment of BTC
Current status:
ETF: 🟢
USD: 🟢
US crypto regulatory expectations: 🟢
Short squeeze momentum: 🟢, but depleting
Long-term US Treasury yields: 🔴 biggest risk point
Fed: 🟡 waiting for Jackson Hole
Therefore, the most important question for BTC right now is no longer:
"Can it break through $70K?"
But rather:
After the short squeeze fuel gradually runs out, can ETF and spot funds truly support BTC around $75K?
If ETF inflows continue, and the 10-year/30-year Treasury yields no longer surge, the current rally still has room to expand.
Conversely, if Treasury yields sharply rise again and ETF inflows noticeably cool down, high volatility shakeouts above $75K are very likely.
The two key numbers to watch today: the next full net inflow of ETFs + the US 10-year Treasury yield.Here's a big narrative. Global long-term government bond yields have collectively surged to multi-decade highs, with US, Japanese, and Korean bonds all rising together, and governments worldwide expanding their balance sheets — translated into plain language: fiat currencies are quietly depreciating. This is why gold and $BTC have been bought up together these days; they are treated as the same thing — an escape from fiat dilution. This trend is a slow variable; it won't be realized every day, but it sets the tone for this cycle. The short-term short squeeze will pass, but the logic behind depreciation trades won't disappear so quickly. Don't fixate on a single candlestick; look up and see the bigger picture. Let's watch and see how it unfolds. Yesterday we asked: rally or squeeze? The market just gave its first answer.
$BTC topped $75,000 on OKX spot within 24 hours, extending Wednesday’s breakout. More than $3 billion in crypto shorts were liquidated over 24 hours, per Coinglass.
Flows strengthened too. Spot BTC ETFs logged three straight days of inflows, with Wednesday bringing:
· $517M net inflows, the biggest single day since early May
· IBIT $284.7M
· ARKB + FBTC about $140M combined
Analysts read the move as longer-horizon institutional positioning, not retail FOMO.
On-chain, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added 20,000+ BTC since July 29, worth about $1.2B at the time. But exchange supply is rebuilding: around 28,000 BTC returned by mid-August, reversing roughly 84% of the prior six-week drain. That weakens the supply-squeeze case, even if exchange deposits do not automatically mean selling.
Policy added fuel. At Wednesday’s White House meeting, Trump said government purchases of “sizable” amounts of BTC “has been talked about” and again pushed Congress on the CLARITY Act. Estimates put US holdings near 328,000 BTC, almost all from seizures, with no publicly documented open-market purchase.
Regulators are moving too:
· SEC proposed its crypto offering framework
· CFTC Chair Selig directed staff to explore market rules if Congress keeps stalling
Positioning is still the question. Futures OI has rebounded toward the top of its recent range, while funding remains positive without spiking. On July 31, the $60,000 put was Deribit’s largest strike at $1.17B in notional OI. Traders had built heavy downside protection and got a breakout instead.
ETH is up close to 5%, with ADA and SOL following. Jackson Hole is less than a week away.
Whales accumulated early, ETFs accelerated and policy is turning. But exchange supply is rebuilding and conviction above $75K still needs proving. Squeeze fuel burns out fast. Real demand does not.
#BTCRallyOrSqueeze #BTC accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
I believe the current BTC breakout above $74,000 is the result of ETF fund inflows combined with a short squeeze, but whether the trend can continue depends on subsequent trading volume and whether stablecoin liquidity continues to expand.
The judgment is based on three aspects: first, OKX spot BTC/USDT hit a 24-hour high of $75,000, triggering nearly $3 billion in short liquidations, a typical short squeeze scenario; second, on August 19, the combined net inflow of US BTC and ETH spot ETFs was $706 million, with BTC accounting for $517 million, showing that institutional funds are indeed replenishing; third, the current market shows clear divergence, with some traders viewing this as a short-term acceleration, while others see it as the start of a trend recovery.
Specifically, liquidations are concentrated in medium to high positions with 3-5x leverage, with liquidation prices mostly between $72,000 and $73,500; ETF inflows mainly come from leading institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock, and the ETH inflow ratio is higher than historical averages, suggesting funds may be rotating in their allocation. Operationally, it is recommended to observe whether BTC can hold above $73,000 in the next 48 hours accompanied by a rebound in stablecoin market cap. If it fails to break through $76,000 with volume, caution is needed for a high-level pullback risk.
The current rise is a structural opportunity rather than a full bull market start; the key is the sustainability of subsequent funds.
@OKX星球 I am Dao Ge. Pop Mart's latest financial report shows revenue of 17.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, but profit only rose by 10.1%, significantly below the market expectations of 19.98 billion revenue and 6.64 billion profit. Overseas business has become the biggest drag, with Asia-Pacific and Americas revenues down 9.7% and 16.5% respectively, and online revenue plummeting 44%.
The IP structure is also changing. THE MONSTERS, which includes LABUBU, generated 4.45 billion in revenue, down 7.5% year-on-year, with its share dropping to 26%, indicating a decline in reliance on a single IP. Taking over is Star People, with revenue soaring 580.6% to 2.65 billion, directly becoming the second largest IP. Plush product revenue reached 9.825 billion, up 60% year-on-year, surpassing figurines for the first time to become the largest category, accounting for 57.2%.
Gross margin fell from 70.3% to 69.7%, mainly due to rising raw material costs and a decline in the proportion of overseas revenue. The overseas online traffic dividend is fading, with Asia-Pacific online revenue down 39.8% and Americas online revenue down 45.6%. CEO Wang Ning said it is unlikely to achieve the initially set 20% growth target this year and has designated 2026 as a "year of consolidation." Pop Mart is not shrinking; it is shifting from a hit-driven model to an ecosystem-driven one, transitioning from a high-speed sprint to a steady-paced marathon. #FinancialReportObserver: Pop Mart shifts growth gears, can multiple IPs take over? $BTC $ETH $SOL What’s most worth noting today isn’t the coin price, but the semiconductor sector: a new wave of chip price hikes is coming, with multiple companies announcing price increases in quick succession. Micron even said that data center customer demand is about 150% of what they can supply. What does this mean? The physical demand for AI hardware is real and still tight. The narrative around storage and memory is running stronger than many altcoins this round, supported by a genuine production capacity gap, not just pure sentiment. $BTC short squeeze is one thing, industry trends are another—don’t confuse the two. Those who understand, understand.$SOL is experiencing a high beta rally, and the funding rate has turned positive.
But my approach: spot trading is fine, don't chase contracts at the peak.
Today, SOL pulled from 78–81 up to 87–90, rising 6–10%, with market cap returning to 50.5–51 billion, and volume expanding to 5–5.7 billion. Coinglass's SOL perpetual funding rate flipped from negative on 8/20 directly to +0.0112%/8h (annualized 10.95%), with the entire exchange around 0.01%, showing renewed bullish enthusiasm, but this is just chasing momentum, not a bottom signal.
This move is purely beta following BTC/ETH, with no independent catalyst. The upgrade narratives like SIMD-025 remain, but no new positive news has landed. The weekly RSI's previous weak structure at 38 hasn't changed; the daily rebound can't alter the weekly trend unless it holds above the 95 neckline, otherwise, it's just a high beta rebound.
Comparing among the 6 coins: BTC is at the end of a short squeeze, OKB is catching up, HYPE surged 27% due to Trump's compliance trigger, and SOL is currently just a high beta follower. It has the greatest elasticity but also the harshest pullbacks; the previous drop from 95 to 77 was a lesson, as SOL especially suffers from liquidity issues. #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, aiming to raise funds that could match SpaceX. My first reaction when I saw this news was: Here we go again?
Anthropic is going public, with the prospectus expected as early as the end of August, and they secretly submitted the S-1 in June. Their fundraising target directly competes with SpaceX—SpaceX just set a global IPO record of $86.2 billion in June this year, and this guy says they want to match or even surpass that.
The valuation is even more outrageous; the market is already talking about $2 trillion. What does $2 trillion mean? Coca-Cola and Pepsi combined don’t even come close. A company whose most famous product externally is a chatbot, valued at $2 trillion—I really start to question my understanding of money.
But you really can’t call them crazy. Q2 revenue was $11.5 billion, compared to only $787 million in the same period last year, a 14-fold increase in one year. Annualized revenue has already reached $65 billion, and Q2 even achieved adjusted operating profit for the first time. This growth curve is unmatched in tech history.
So the question is: Is this the biggest opportunity in human history, or the biggest bubble?
I tend to wait and see. Everyone knows how fast AI burns money; Nvidia’s GPUs are not cheap. Now with hundreds of billions in revenue, they dare to be valued at $2 trillion—what if growth slows down next year? Also, OpenAI is in line, and when two giants start drawing blood, whether the market can handle it is another question.
An AI company valued at $2 trillion sounds like a game of hot potato. What do you all think? In the past 24 hours, the crypto market continued to heat up rapidly. BTC once broke through $75,000, with ETF single-day net inflows expanding to about $707 million. However, at the same time, nearly $3 billion worth of short liquidations and the greed index quickly rising to 72 also indicate that this rally has entered a phase prone to more intense volatility. In summary: Short squeeze ignited the breakout, ETFs began to provide spot relay, but what will truly determine the height of the market next is whether new funds can continue to flow in after the short squeeze ends. 1️⃣ 📊 BTC breaks through $75,000, market further strengthens As of 11:00 HKT: BTC around $74,373, 24h +7.46%
ETH around $2,344.84, +4.22%
SOL around $89.24, +5.39% Total crypto market cap rose to about $2.523 trillion, a 24-hour increase of 2.61%. BTC market dominance further rose to 59.01%, indicating that this phase is still BTC-led rather than a broad altcoin rally. Among the top 30 non-stablecoin market caps, XRP rose about 16.5%, becoming one of the strongest performing mainstream assets. Market sentiment continues to heat up rapidly. Fear and Greed Index: 29 → 62 → 72 Within just one week, it has moved from fear into a clear greed zone. This means the trend is indeed improving, but the chasing sentiment is also rapidly accumulating. 2️⃣ 💰 ETF single-day net inflows expanded to about $707 million #BTC acceleration rally, can the funds continue to take over? Today, Bitcoin broke through $73,000, reaching $73,424, the highest level since June 1, with a cumulative increase of over 14% in two days.
Just a few days ago, Bitcoin was hovering around $63,000.
The direct trigger for the rise was the targeted liquidation of short positions. The day before, the crypto market saw a record liquidation of about $2.75 billion in Bitcoin short positions, and the short squeeze further accelerated this rally.
But such a scale of liquidation itself is a signal — when short positions are extremely crowded, the price only needs a catalyst to trigger a chain reaction.
The White House gave a push at a critical moment. Trump convened CEOs of major crypto companies including Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, Ripple, and Chainlink at the White House, urging Congress to pass the Clarity Act by the end of the year.
The SEC and CFTC chairmen also attended the meeting. The president personally pushing crypto legislation is a political signal of this level rarely seen in the industry's history. The regulatory path is moving from "uncertainty" to "clarity," and the market is pricing in this change in advance.
#BTC acceleration rally, can the funds continue to take over? If Bitcoin rebounds to 73,000/82,000,
then to which two price levels will Ethereum's price rebound?
If BTC's first rebound target is near 73,000, then ETH corresponds to around 2,500.
Let's analyze specifically next, starting with BTC.
The Wyckoff accumulation structure shows that it is currently in the stage of testing the resistance line after a spring rebound. The resistance line for phase D is at 83,000, but the probability of this wave starting from 62,800 and going straight to 83,000 is low.
Why?
73,000-75,000 is the position of the weekly downtrend line, and also the historical chip concentration area of the March 2024 high at 72,000-73,000. This range is the first major test for this rebound. If it breaks above, then look at 83,000; if not, it will pull back.
So the phase target for this BTC rebound is 73,000-75,000. At this point, there is a high probability of a decent pullback.
Now let's look at ETH.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has just broken through the long-term downtrend of the past several years, which is the most important structural change in the last two years.
If BTC reaches 73,000, based on an exchange rate of 0.0317-0.034, ETH will be around 2,300-2,450. If BTC can further break through to 82,000, ETH corresponds to the 2,700-2,900 range.
The underlying logic is not complicated: the stronger BTC rises, the stronger the ETH/BTC exchange rate may go, and the greater ETH's elasticity. Historically, ETH's performance in BTC's main upward wave has always been like this: it rises more sharply than BTC and falls more sharply than BTC.
Summary of the judgment:
BTC's phase target is near 73,000; this is a position to reduce holdings/defend, not to chase highs.
ETH corresponds to around 2,450; if BTC exceeds expectations to 82,000, ETH looks at 2,700-2,900.
Don't FOMO. Missing out doesn't lose money; making mistakes does.Two triggers for BTC's surge this round
1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an increase in U.S. Treasury buybacks, which does not equate to QE money printing. The key is that it does not change the Federal Reserve's balance sheet structure; it's similar to swapping short-term debt for long-term debt. Essentially, it's firefighting to push down the 30-year Treasury yield. At the same time, gold and BTC, which rose together, will pull back.
2. The cryptocurrency meeting held by Trump at the White House, broadly speaking, even if stablecoins must be backed by short-term government bonds, the scale is only about $2 trillion, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the $40 trillion U.S. debt. Moreover, this is clearly rehashing old news; this topic was brought up a long time ago.
Personal opinion, everyone can discuss together [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh sums it up in one sentence: The Korean storage giants' current move signals that the AI dividend has officially shifted from "expansion competition" to a "real cash dividend" model.
SK Hynix first made a bold move: a 40 trillion KRW (28.6 billion USD) buyback and cancellation, the largest in Korean history. They completed 24.07 million shares in 3 months, accounting for 3.3% of the share capital. Even more aggressive, the shareholder return ratio jumped from "within 50% of free cash flow" directly to "over 50%". With net cash of 69 trillion KRW, they have so much money it’s burning their hands. Once the news broke, the stock price surged 12.7% in a single day, sending the market into a frenzy.
Samsung is still holding back a big move: the market expects the board at the end of August to unveil a return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW. Under the current policy of returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders, Samsung’s stock price has dropped 27.6% from the June high of 374,500 KRW to 270,000 KRW. If this plan materializes, it will be a strong cushion for the stock price.
What does this have to do with Bitcoin? Storage stocks are shifting from "burning cash to expand production" to "stable dividend distribution," with AI profits starting to flow back massively to shareholders. SK Hynix and Samsung combined returns start at 140 trillion KRW, with market expectations up to 200 trillion KRW. The valuation logic of storage stocks is fundamentally changing—from cyclical gambling to dividend growth stocks. Bitcoin is still hovering around 75,000 USD, which is positive for the overall risk asset sentiment.
Good deals are worth waiting for. Once Samsung’s 100 trillion KRW plan lands, the valuation anchor for the storage sector will rise another notch. Stay patient and don’t panic $BTC $ETH $SOL #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认