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Walsh will appear tonight at Jackson Hole; the real risk is not whether interest rates will be cut, but how he defines "inflation" exactly.
The market has already largely priced in the usual storyline of "whether rates will be cut," so tonight's real point of contention is how Walsh will redefine the Fed's framework for viewing "inflation"—this will determine whether rate hikes are truly locked away in the toolbox.
This is why the market has been so sensitive recently, because if Walsh adjusts the inflation assessment criteria, the entire asset pricing logic must be redone.
🔍 Core risk: Walsh's "inflation framework" is being reconstructed
The market is nervous because since Walsh took office, he has sent ambiguous signals about how inflation is measured:
· Possible change in the "inflation yardstick": Traditionally, the Fed looks at core $PCE, but Walsh hinted in July that after January next year, the inflation framework might be adjusted to consider broader indicators (such as trimmed mean $PCE). Under the new metric, inflation figures would "look better," giving more room for policy.
· From "observing inflation" to "defining inflation": Walsh has emphasized the need to distinguish between "one-off price changes" and "persistent underlying inflation," believing only the latter warrants monetary policy intervention. This theoretical distinction directly affects whether he will act on the current high inflation data.
📉 Three market scenarios tonight (key focus)
Based on possible answers he might give, the market has set three reaction paths:
1. Hawkish (clear fight against inflation): If he clearly states defending the 2% target and commits to rate hikes if necessary. Short-term rates rise, the dollar strengthens, but risk assets may come under pressure.
2. Dovish (expectation of framework adjustment): If he is vague or hints at adjusting the inflation target. Term premiums soar, long-term bonds are sold off (yields rise), possibly supporting gold and cryptocurrencies as inflation hedges.
3. Neutral (communication repair): If he clearly explains the policy framework and removes uncertainty. Market risk premiums fall, benefiting stocks and emerging markets stability.
💎 Conclusion: Uncertainty premium
Currently, the market leans more toward neutral-hawkish bets; the key is how he characterizes the "surge in long-term yields." The current market pricing includes an "uncertainty premium"—traders don't know the Fed's next move and demand higher risk compensation. If tonight he can clarify this "inflation," that will be the real reassurance; if he remains vague, tonight's volatility could be greater than the rate cut itself. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies the key level battle
80,000 didn't hold, plunged all the way back to 79,000, let's see what Powell says tonight.
Last night $BTC slid from around 81,500 down to 79,000, dropping over 2,000 dollars directly; the 80,000 level hasn't been firmly secured yet. The gains pushed up by short covering and ETF inflows couldn't hold once profit-taking kicked in.
Currently, neither bulls nor bears dare to move, all waiting for Fed Chair Powell's first speech at Jackson Hole at 10 PM tonight, which is the biggest variable tonight. Also, about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options on Deribit expire today; market makers' gamma hedging may amplify volatility, and the price might be "nailed" near 80,000 or accelerate through it.
Let's first see how Powell sets the tone tonight, then decide the next move. Market Brief: Jackson Hole Speech Approaching, Market Awaits Fed Policy Signals
Market Overview
At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, the new Federal Reserve Chair, Wash, will deliver his first major public speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, an event with high volatility risk.
Current Background: U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and inflation is still away from policy targets. Wash tends to downplay forward guidance, hoping the market will independently judge based on economic data. The market is focused on his statements regarding inflation and interest rates.
Scenario Forecast: If the speech avoids interest rate topics and only discusses long-term economic issues, the market will still interpret silence as a policy signal. This speech will impact interest rate expectations and U.S. Treasuries, linking to U.S. stocks, crypto, and all risk assets.
Post Viewpoint: Inflation remains the core variable; currency depreciation will weaken the dollar, benefiting risk assets; AI remains the long-term tech theme. The current volatility is just a process of market conflict and game theory. It is considered a good time to position in tech stocks, focusing on SNDK, TSLA, GOOGL.
Market Logic
Jackson Hole is a heavyweight macro event; even slight changes in speech wording can trigger intense market fluctuations.
There are two competing forces in the market: on one hand, concerns about sticky inflation maintaining high rates suppressing assets; on the other, bets on the long-term AI industry logic, treating pullbacks as buying opportunities. Event-driven market uncertainty is very high, and both bulls and bears remain cautious before the speech. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
Kansas Fed's Schmied says inflation is stubborn, current rates are insufficient to push inflation back to 2%, does not recommend betting on a rate cut by year-end, committee discussion focuses on maintaining high rates or continuing to raise them. Boston Fed's Collins mentioned that a short-term drop in inflation is far from enough; if inflation rebounds, restarting rate hikes will be necessary.
Affected by these remarks, US Treasury yields rose slightly, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets came under pressure. However, BTC and ETH have continuous net inflows from ETFs supporting the market, preventing a crash.
Tonight at 22:00, Wash's keynote speech at Jackson Hole is critical and will directly impact September rate expectations.
Practical reminder: The first 10-30 minutes after the speech is released are prone to false breakouts; do not open new leverage positions during the pulse phase. Wait 1-2 hours and reassess the market after US Treasury trends stabilize. Breaking alert! Tonight at Jackson Hole, the biggest risk in the entire event is not a rate cut!
At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Fed's Waller makes his Jackson Hole debut with a major appearance! The whole internet is betting on whether there will be a rate cut in September, but this completely misses the point! The real life-or-death question tonight: how will the Fed redefine inflation?
The current market environment is extremely fragmented and hides huge shock risks! U.S. employment resilience exceeds expectations, initial claims data have fallen consecutively, unemployment rate has stabilized, and there are no signs of recession in the economy. But inflation stubbornly remains high; July PCE has stayed steady at 3.7% for two consecutive months, core PCE continues above 3%, far from the 2% policy target, and the inflation problem is far from solved!
The biggest uncertainty in the market right now has never been a single rate hike or cut, but the Fed's ambiguous policy framework!
If Waller leans hawkish, emphasizing the risk of high inflation and maintaining expectations of policy tightening, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strongly rebound! BTC, which has risen above the 80,000 mark with a net inflow of 2.8 billion on the 8th via ETFs, and gold, which is oscillating at high levels, will immediately face profit-taking sell-offs and sharp short-term corrections!
If Waller signals moderation, acknowledges high long-end yields and high debt pressure, and slows the pace of tightening, market risk appetite will fully continue, and the rebound in various assets will keep fermenting!
Even more fatal is the current strange pattern: short-term rates are controlled by the Fed, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4.6%, and long-end yields rise autonomously. Waller's stance on high inflation, high debt, and high long-end yields is far more deadly than a single rate decision!
$BTC $ETH The global popularity of digital currency essentially stems from different demands and groups entering the market one after another, collectively supporting a trillion-scale market. Many people trade by only looking at K-lines, yet they overlook the price fluctuations on the trading board, which fundamentally result from the competition among different player groups. The motivations, trading habits, and risk preferences of these groups vary completely, and their behaviors directly determine short-term market volatility. This article breaks down the mainstream players in the crypto space into eight categories, analyzing their operational logic from the perspective of underlying demands, differentiating it from previous articles on trading strategies and historical education.
1. Long-term believers and coin hoarders: Asset allocators against inflation
This group represents the most steadfast foundational players in the crypto space, most having experienced a full bull and bear cycle. Their core entry logic is decentralization, combating fiat currency overissuance, and asset hedging.
Their holdings are highly concentrated, heavily invested only in BTC and ETH, rarely touching altcoins, mainly focusing on spot accumulation and long-term holding, almost never engaging in contract leverage. They do not pay attention to short-term price fluctuations or intraday spikes and dips, treating Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge against currency depreciation risks caused by global central banks' quantitative easing.
Demographic profile: Middle class and above, with overseas asset allocation needs, low trust in traditional financial systems, holding periods measured in years, not panicking to sell during downturns, nor frequently taking profits during upswings, serving as the market's long-term ballast. Their large holdings are mostly stored in cold wallets, unlikely to circulate in the short term, having minimal impact on market liquidity but determining the long-term bottom support of the coins.
2. Contract high-frequency speculators: Players chasing short-term volatility
These are the most active participants in the market, emotionally...🇰🇷 SK Hynix: The True Leader in AI Storage, or Just Overpunished?
US ADR ($xSKHY) is quoted at $161.61, and Korean stock 000660 is around 1.67 million KRW. This stock has pulled back over 40% from its high of 2.98 million KRW this year, but I believe what’s falling is expectations, not fundamentals.
Hard data: Q2 revenue of 79.3 trillion KRW, operating profit of 60.5 trillion, profit margin 76%, all-time highs; HBM4 mass production started in Q2, HBM4E samples are underway; the most explosive news is the 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation plan, reducing about 3.3% of shares outstanding, directly boosting per-share value. The average target price from 10 institutions is $253, so there’s still room from the current price.
DRAM export unit prices rose about 400% year-over-year, HBM supply-demand gap can last until 2027–28, and the price hike cycle hasn’t peaked yet.
Opinion: The "water seller" of AI storage, the long-term logic is solid. But I remind you, after ADR listing, about $26.5 billion of shares loosened + 2x leveraged ETF unwinding, short-term volatility is scary. Honestly, I both love and fear this stock, so scaling in is more comfortable than going all in 😮💨
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 This quantum-secure BTC transaction by StarkWare is not about "Bitcoin is already secure." On the contrary, it reminds everyone that the real trouble in the future is migration. QSB demonstrates that without changing consensus rules, specific UTXOs can be moved into a more quantum-resistant structure. However, its current cost is high, the format is non-standard, and it still requires direct communication with miners' channels; it's not something an ordinary wallet can use with a simple click. I think the most noteworthy aspect of this is that it brings a long-term risk back from a sci-fi topic to an engineering problem. The quantum threat won't hit tomorrow, but if everyone waits until panic sets in to migrate, on-chain congestion, wallet compatibility, and custody processes will all become major headaches. The hardest part of security upgrades has never been the research papers, but actually getting millions of users to take action. #StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易 Fundamental Research Report $APT / Aptos (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
Conclusion first: Aptos ($APT) overall score 59/100, rating Narrative over Implementation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Aptos (token $APT), public chain/L1 track. Focuses on Move-based public chain, Meta-based. Competitors include SUI, SEI. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, Gas spikes, TPS limits, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents occur. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side, address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, tech integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): Circulating market cap: Aptos $3.00B, SUI undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. FDV: Aptos $4.20B, SUI undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. Annual revenue: Aptos $2.00M, SUI undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Aptos undisclosed, SUI undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Final qualitative: fundamentals solid (score 59/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus on these metrics: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources, for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, reassess.
That's the fundamentals, the rest is up to the market.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit $BTC has climbed sharply, but here’s what makes this move different: price went higher while futures leverage actually decreased. That matters because a rally powered by aggressive leverage can disappear quickly, while a move supported by real spot demand has a stronger foundation. Now the market faces another test today, with roughly $6.4B in Bitcoin options expiring and Jackson Hole putting monetary policy back in focus. So I’m not asking whether BTC is bullish or bearish. I’m watching somethiBTC was mentioned 39 times in one hour, discussion speed still needs to be viewed over the entire day
OKX Onchain OS recorded 39 mentions of BTC in one hour at 15:00 on August 28, including 36 on X and 3 in news.
Compared to the 24-hour hourly average, this round's speed is 0.50 times, classified as "significantly slowed down"; the sentiment is 54% bullish and 10% bearish. There is no need to force these two lines into the same conclusion: heat reflects how many people are talking, sentiment reflects which side the text leans toward, and neither can directly replace transaction volume and capital flow.
If the next round continues with speed, news sources, and actual market transactions together, confidence in judgment will increase; if it quickly returns to the average, this change is more like short-term noise.The tape looks selective, not broadly risk-on. BTC near $79.4K and ETH at $2,491 are both lower over 24 hours, while SOL is holding a modest gain. That divergence reads more like rotation than a durable market-wide recovery.
With BTC options expiry and Hormuz developments competing for attention, short-term volatility may obscure the underlying signal. My stance is cautious: SOL strength matters, but BTC and ETH need to stabilize before it carries wider macro weight.
Not advice, just analysis.Why can't Bitcoin break through $82,000? The answer lies in the $6.4 billion worth of contracts expiring tomorrow.
Bitcoin rose from $62,000 to $80,000 within a week, but every time it neared $82,000, it pulled back.
The reason isn't obvious on the charts. It's hidden in the options market.
Let me explain.
Bitcoin is currently between two options levels.
Above is $82,000.
Large Bitcoin holders have agreed to sell their Bitcoin at $82,000 and received premiums for it.
At this level, market makers, i.e., traders, sell Bitcoin as the price approaches $82,000 to balance risk. Therefore, every upward attempt is blocked at the same spot.
Below is $75,000.
The same logic works in reverse.
Big players have agreed to buy Bitcoin at $75,000 and received premiums. Traders buy Bitcoin as the price nears $75,000. Thus, declines stabilize at the same position.
In the middle is $80,000.
The level with the most concentrated options.
Once the price breaks through $80,000, traders will sell Bitcoin; if it falls below, they will buy.
Therefore, Bitcoin has hovered around $80,000 for 3 days.
Tomorrow, this pattern will change.
81,700 Bitcoin options will expire. Total value is $6.44 billion, about one-fifth of the open interest on Deribit.
The largest portion is call options at $75,000 and $80,000. That means most of the support at $80,000 will disappear tomorrow.
The market is preparing for something.
A week ago, investors were buying protection against a drop.
This week, call options have started trading more expensively than put options.
There are concrete examples.
2,000 contracts expiring on September 4th above $82,000 were traded.
If the price breaks $82,000, as it rises at that level, traders selling Bitcoin will have nothing left to sell. The resistance will vanish.
In my view, Bitcoin will break through $82,000 starting tomorrow.
Once it breaks through, the next level is $85,000. $ETH $OKB 🔥 At 10 PM tonight, Waller will take the stage at Jackson Hole.
This speech carries more weight than he might have anticipated. The 30-year US Treasury yield has already surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007; inflation has not been contained for five consecutive years; the Treasury is repurchasing long-term bonds to suppress yields. The market is focused on Waller, just waiting for him to speak.
The market wants only one thing—clarity. How exactly do you define inflation? What is your view on interest rates? Will you provide guidance or not?
Since Waller took office, he has pursued a "quiet Fed," canceling forward guidance, shortening policy statements, and advocating "less is more." The market has directly punished him with yields—if you don’t give guidance, I’ll use long-term bond yields to make decisions for you. Bank of America warns that if Waller continues to be ambiguous, the 30-year Treasury yield could hit 5.5% or even higher. HSBC says this is his "last chance to curb the ongoing sell-off in long bonds."
For BTC, there are only two possible scenarios:
Waller provides a clear framework (even if hawkish) → uncertainty decreases → risk assets get a short-term breather. Continued ambiguity → long bonds keep getting hammered → risk asset valuations come under pressure → BTC will struggle to stand alone.
Last week, BTC rose from 62,000 to 81,000, fueled by Treasury easing and short covering. Now it’s Waller’s turn. Give direction, catch a breath; keep dodging, and volatility won’t be small.
At 10 PM tonight, we’ll see the outcome. 👇
Join the comments and share your thoughts: do you think Waller will provide guidance or keep dodging?
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Evernorth is preparing to give $XRP wings and take off, moving the "XRP Treasury Company" to Nasdaq. Here's the situation: now its S-4 registration documents are effective, and the next step is the shareholder vote on September 30. If the vote passes, the transaction is completed, and listing conditions are met, the merged company plans to use XRPN. This code is traded on Nasdaq. It's not simply about hoarding XRP, but about using funds within the XRP ecosystem to gradually increase the number of XRP per share. The most direct impact of this will definitely be on XRP. Because if it goes public successfully, it would give traditional US investors another channel to access XRP, so they don't necessarily have to buy coins on exchanges themselves. If this model eventually succeeds, the market will easily think of a strategy: BTC can serve as a public company treasury, XRP can too, but in the future, will SOL, ETH, and even other mainstream assets be replicated? This may continue to spread the "listed company + crypto treasury" model. For investors, the most worthwhile moments to follow right now are actually a few key points: whether the September 30 vote will pass, whether XRPN will actually go public, whether capital will be willing to buy after listing, and whether the XRP per share can continue to grow. Right now, the "XRP version of Strategy" has not succeeded, but this approach has finally reached the stage of being tested by the US stock market. If it really succeeds, it will benefit not only XRP but also...$SNDK derivative positions accumulation and weak spot price rally form a liquidity divergence, with $1.73 billion in high-level positions exposing a short-term overheated leverage structure and long squeeze risk.
The current market shows characteristics of stock game and local speculative resonance. Altcoins like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR alternately attract short-term funds, while $SNDK's derivatives side is rapidly accumulating liquidity risk.
The primary driving factor dominating the market is whether spot buying can support contract leverage; the secondary factor is the transmission speed of funding rate overheating to the long liquidation chain.
Perpetual contract positions have risen to a high of $1.73 billion, indicating that chasing highs heavily relies on leverage support. Funding rates remain high simultaneously, meaning longs bear continuous holding costs. As long as spot price gains stall, leveraged positions face extremely high risk of squeeze and deleveraging.
The bullish scenario trigger condition is continuous expansion of spot trading volume successfully absorbing leveraged liquidity. If spot buying forcibly absorbs the selling pressure from $1.73 billion positions, smoothly transferring derivative chips to the spot market, the market will shift from squeeze risk to a short squeeze process, pushing prices to break highs; the signal of this scenario failing is spot volume shrinking again.
The bearish scenario trigger condition is price rallying again but position volume stops growing, or funding rates rapidly falling. Once new long funds cannot maintain the premium, price correction will directly trigger a long liquidation chain reaction, causing accelerated selling and deleveraging; the signal of this scenario failing is contract positions cooling rapidly while spot buying remains firm.
The core indicator to judge whether bearish risk fails is whether actual spot buying can fully cover the liquidity gap caused by leveraged exits.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus should be on whether $SNDK perpetual contract positions deviate from the $1.73 billion high, and whether spot volume shows active accumulation signals when funding rates change.
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #Revolut推出欧元稳定币EURRAugust 28
Gold Evening
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
Federal Reserve policy expectations, tonight's speech is the decisive event of the week
Previous PCE inflation data shows inflation is sticky, raising the market's probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates; Thursday's initial jobless claims data was moderate, showing cooling signals in employment, somewhat easing extreme hawkish expectations, with buying support appearing at the lower gold price levels.
Tonight at 22:00 is the new chairman's first keynote speech at Jackson Hole, directly affecting the September rate decision expectations, with three scenario simulations:
Hawkish speech: Emphasizes persistent inflation, retains the option to maintain high interest rates or even tighten further, boosting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, pressuring gold prices downward to test support;
Neutral speech: Does not release clear policy signals, maintains data-dependent stance, gold prices continue current wide-range oscillation pattern;
Dovish speech: Acknowledges inflation decline, signals policy adjustment, weakens the dollar, gold prices rebound to challenge upper resistance range.
Strategy: Range 4565-4575, defend 4550, target 4620-4640
Be cautious and observe for the first half hour before data release, then follow the trend accordingly.
Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, enter the market with caution
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $XAU $BTC tagged $81,000, then came back into the $79,000–$80,000 range.
That pullback is not a collapse. It is mild consolidation after a push. The market ran, took liquidity above $81k, and sat back down on the level that actually matters. As long as $79k–$80k holds, this still looks like digestion, not distribution.
The bid underneath is still institutional. Spot ETFs keep printing net inflows. That is the part people skip when they only watch the wick. Funds did not leave because BTC failed to hold $81k for more than a minute. They are still absorbing. That is why the tape can look heavy and still refuse to break.
$ETH is doing the same thing in its own way. Still stuck near $2,500, but not falling apart. That relative resilience is why some money is starting to look past the two majors. The idea of rotation is back. The proof is not.
Names like $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK can print a spike and still not mean anything. Activity is not leadership. A few hot ticks is not a follow-the-leader move. Capital right now looks like selective probing testing, taking a piece, leaving. It does not look like a full-risk bid spreading across the board.
That is the difference between “alts are moving” and “altseason is here.”
Collective upside needs volume and follow-through. This market does not have enough of either yet. Until BTC holds the $80k area and ETH stops treating $2,500 like a ceiling, the small-cap heat is just noise with a ticker.
For most people, chasing the random hotspot is the expensive lesson. Waiting for a broader rotation is slower. It is also cleaner. Let BTC decide if $80k is a base. Let ETH decide if $2,500 is support. Let volume show up in more than five names at once.
The market is still searching. Watching is not weakness. Forcing a trade into selective flow is. Tonight's main event at Jackson Hole, Wash's debut sets the market direction
At 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
Currently, the US core PCE inflation remains above the 2% target, initial jobless claims have fallen to 203,000, inflation stickiness persists, and the employment market remains resilient.
Fed officials have recently expressed divergent views, with internal disagreements over rate hikes increasing.
The market is not fixated on whether there will be a direct move in September; the real concerns are twofold:
First, what standards regarding inflation, employment, and financial conditions will trigger a rate hike or cut;
Second, how the Fed and Treasury will delineate responsibilities and authority over long-term interest rate control.
If this speech is vague and does not provide a clear policy trigger framework, the dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and BTC could easily experience a sharp wave of expectation shocks.
At 20:30 tonight, the July PCE inflation data will be released first; with the dual impact of data and speech, major asset volatility is likely to increase significantly, so please pay close attention to risk.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC $ETH $SOL The US Treasury's announcement to expand long-term Treasury buybacks was directly interpreted by the market as implicit easing. In plain language: the Treasury is cutting down long-term interest rates, effectively making the dollar weaker. So what did the money do? Run—go to gold, run to Bitcoin. Hashdex's investment director put it bluntly—Bitcoin doesn't directly respond to the September rate decision; it follows global liquidity and long-term yield curves, exactly the same drivers as gold. Do you think this is an internal crypto issue? It's basically a fiat credit issue. Citibank just poured cold water on it: this breakout for gold is entirely driven by speculative funds, and physical demand hasn't kept up. Once Wash goes hawkish, speculation runs faster than anyone else's. The same goes for BTC. Tonight, it's not about "What does Wash say," but about "Which direction is the dollar credit headed?" Three scenarios, three outcomes: Hawkish (reiterating inflation risks + keeping rate hike options) Core PCE still at 3.3%, targeting 2%. Inflation has been above target for over five years. If Wash takes a tough stance, BTC will face short-term pressure, with the 80,000 mark tested. Citi says: Hawkish remarks could end the rally in gold and BTC. Neutral (only talking about framework, not interest rates). The first thing Wash did after taking office was to remove the Fed's forward-looking guidance—removing forward-looking language from the statement and forming a group to review communication. He doesn't want to give answers. The market wants answers. If he remains vague—the market keeps guessing, volatility keeps intensifying. Dovish (implies rate hikes are delayed or ended). Dovish signals may push BTC above the 81,000 resistance.I wonder if anyone has noticed a strange phenomenon🤔: the spot market is calm with very little volatility, but the futures market experiences frequent violent surges and drops. A large part of the current market movement is no longer driven by spot holdings but by one-sided leverage battles in the futures market. Leveraged funds have become the main driving force behind the market, and ordinary retail investors are easily misled by the false signals created by leverage. 📊Core market data📈 24-hour total spot trading volume is 38.6 billion USDT, while futures market trading volume reaches as high as 61.2 billion USDT, with futures volume far exceeding spot. The total futures liquidation across the network is 544 million USDT, 72% of which comes from mutual liquidation among leveraged positions, not from spot holdings dumping. BTC spot price fluctuations are limited, but frequent spikes and rapid rises and falls occur in the futures market. A large amount of new capital is not accumulating spot assets but is flowing entirely into futures for leveraged speculation. 🔍Market status analysis🔎 Currently, leveraged funds in the futures market have increasing influence. Often, spot holdings see no large-scale buying or selling; just a large number of futures positions opening and closing can push prices up or down in the short term. This leverage-driven market movement is highly unstable, rising quickly and falling just as fast. Many retail investors see large bullish candles in futures and think a new major trend is starting, rushing to buy at the top, only to find it was just short-term leverage speculation that quickly reverses. 📈Personal market outlook💡 In the short term, this "strong futures, weak spot" pattern will continue. As long as leveraged funds remain highly active, false intraday pulse movements will persist Truly, hard work pays off
$BTC big brother is indeed the big brother, the big coin surged straight up to 81,200, but the 4-hour RSI is already overbought and turning down. I placed a take-profit order at 81,500; I didn’t dare to catch it at 80,000 this morning and now I’m even more hesitant to chase. However, I noticed some big players placing multiple buy orders around 81,000 to support the bottom, so a deep short-term drop is unlikely, but breaking through 82,000 directly is very difficult. The options pain point is at 80,000, and before settlement, it will most likely come back to shake out some traders.
As for $SOL, this follower’s gains rely entirely on the big coin’s lead, with no solid logic of its own. It rose 6% today, but on-chain activity didn’t keep up, purely an emotional premium. I opened a small short position to hedge, with a stop loss set at the 150 round number; if it breaks below 140, I’ll add to the position. Before the altcoin season arrives, this kind of rebound is just handing out losses.
Overall, this wave is still an emotional recovery after overselling, plus short sellers actively closing positions to hedge ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Tonight’s speech by Powell is the main event; if the tone is hawkish, this rally could vanish overnight. The selling pressure above Ethereum 2,550 is not to be underestimated, and there’s also a large amount of trapped positions around BTC 81,000.
Remember, a rebound is not a reversal; contract open interest hasn’t decreased yet, and the script of both longs and shorts blowing up can happen anytime. Short-term traders should set firm stop losses, don’t be greedy, take profits and run. In this market, position control is more important than directional judgment.
#ETH2550ResistanceAndPullback
#CautiousTradingBeforeJacksonHoleSymposium
#BTCBattleAround81000$LIT If LIT really achieves 1/5 of HYPE's business, the theoretical benchmark price is about $16.5, but the current price of 3.5 only values it at 21%, indicating that value discovery is far from complete; however, due to LIT's low monetization efficiency and unlocking dilution, in practice the market usually only values it at $5-12 (neutral to optimistic), and only if it can hold above $5 can the "1/5 benchmark" be considered confirmed.Not recommended to touch, the reason is straightforward:
**The nickname "Sun Cutter" is not given for nothing.**
In 2018, TRX rose from just over 0.01 to 2 yuan, and he cashed out $300 million at the high point. The coin price then plummeted 90%, burying retail investors. The SEC accused him of creating fake trading volume through over 600,000 wash trades, and in March 2026 he settled for $10 million to get off the hook.
**He holds 60 billion TRX, accounting for 63% of the circulating supply.** With this level of control, he can pump or dump at will; you’re always in the dark while he’s in the light.
**Just yesterday he pulled a classic move:** He posted a 6,000-character long article titled "My Girlfriend Jing Tian" that exploded on the internet, simultaneously issuing a token with the same name "My Girlfriend Jing Tian," which surged 993 times in 24 hours with trading volume exceeding 10 million. Who do you think was buying and selling that coin in the end?
**The logic is the same as the TRUMP coin we talked about yesterday—whales holding certificates to cut retail investors:**
- He has information advantage; by the time you see the trending topic, he’s already set the stage
- He has pricing power, holding 63% of the coins
- He has exit channels, controlling 90% of HTX exchange (formerly Huobi)
- He has legal buffer; the SEC settlement cost only $10 million, while Zhao Changpeng was fined 4.3 billion and still got penalized
**But to be objective:** TRX is different from pure air coins; the TRON network does have real business—TRC20-USDT has $82 billion circulating on-chain, stablecoin transfer fees generate $770 million annually, and TRON Inc is listed on Nasdaq. So TRX won’t go to zero, but "won’t go to zero" and "can make money" are two different things.
The BTC/SOL/ETH you hold are the real deal. Sun Yuchen himself holds 17,000 BTC and 224,000 ETH—he knows what to hold, so why take his risk?
**In short: Sun’s coins are just for watching the show, don’t put money in.**北京时间22点 美联储主席沃什将在杰克逊霍尔发表上任以来第一次主旨演讲 三个月了 这家伙上台后干了三件事：取消前瞻指引、停更点阵图、记者会拒绝解释政策逻辑市场憋疯了 30年期美债收益率飙到2007年以来最高 黄金逼近三个月高位 BTC在8万刀附近上蹿下跳 今晚沃什说的每一个字，都在给美元、黄金和比特币定价 先说说美联储信誉为什么崩了 第一，沟通真空 7月FOMC会议，9票对3票按兵不动。沃什在记者会上拒绝解释为什么——他直接说“让市场替美联储加息” 记者问他什么情况下会加息？不回答。问他通胀目标会不会调整？不回答 结果是什么？债市出现多年来最严重的一轮抛售 第二，财政部添乱 财政部长贝森特上周宣布扩大长期国债回购规模。当天30年期收益率跌了10个基点，第二天全涨回来了 市场直接懵了：你们俩到底谁说了算？ 多伦多Silver Gold Bull外汇总监原话：“沃什希望减少干预让市场信号更清晰，财政部却在扭曲这些信号。如果沃什周五不澄清立场，美元可能大幅下跌。” 第三，市场替美联储“加息” 30年期美债收益率一度突破5.3%，2007年以来最高。美银警告：沃什今晚如果不释放加息信号，30年$BTC Wash's appearance at Jackson Hole tonight: Can he clarify the policy framework?
Tonight's public speech by Wash at Jackson Hole is highly anticipated by the market. Since the 9-to-3 rate hike split at the July FOMC, he has abandoned traditional forward guidance and no longer pre-announces the interest rate path, but has not clarified the policy trigger thresholds, causing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to continue rising and various asset expectations to become chaotic.
However, the probability of unveiling a complete and finalized policy framework tonight is low, as internal related research is not yet complete, and the full report is expected by the end of the year. Most likely, he will only outline the underlying logic of the policy, reiterate the inflation-first principle, list key economic indicators to watch, continue to avoid direct statements on September rate decisions, and maintain a data-driven meeting decision-making model.
There are three possible market scenarios: if clear inflation and yield-related thresholds are defined, market expectations will stabilize and long-term bond yields will be suppressed; if only inflation risks are emphasized with vague rhetoric, uncertainty will persist and market volatility will increase; the possibility of releasing an obvious dovish signal is very low, as it would undermine the Federal Reserve's credibility in fighting inflation.
There is no need to get hung up on verbal statements about whether to raise rates; the focus should be on two points: what data will trigger policy tightening, and the attitude toward the current high U.S. Treasury yields. The framework outline is far more important than a single rate hint. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC spot ETF has recorded net inflows for the 9th consecutive trading day, but the price has reached a level that's not easy to surpass. The on-chain weighted cost basis is about $79,600; the area around $80K is both a psychological level and the average cost zone for new chips. The main supply and resistance above are pointed to $83K-$84.5K, while short-term support below is at $77K-$78K.
Ajian believes the spot quality of this BTC rally is still quite good; nine consecutive inflows cannot be explained by a short squeeze alone. However, the trading logic after $80K has changed: those who bought earlier have profits, new buyers have just reached the cost line, and leveraged accounts are still adding positions.
Therefore, I consider $77K-$78K as the first layer of support and $83K-$84.5K as the supply zone. Don't overthink whether it can break through $80K; the market likes round numbers because they are easy to communicate, but on-chain costs and liquidation zones are the numbers worth paying attention to.Wall Street is still debating rate cuts, while the central bank is aggressively buying 289 tons of gold, hitting a four-year high. On the other hand, the largest long position on-chain reduced holdings by 81.7% overnight, cashing out 4.33 million. The divergence between official heavy buying and speculative selling has gold prices stuck around the 4600 level, caught in a dilemma. News insights: Besides gold purchases, what other key signals have you missed? 1. Why is the central bank obsessed with buying gold? Beyond the usual "safe haven" logic, many overlook that since Q4 2023, the Chinese central bank has recorded the largest single-quarter reserve increase (33 tons) and a continuous 20-month accumulation streak. This largely locks in future demand for hedging against US dollar credit risk, rather than just short-term profit seeking. 2. South Korea's central bank resumed gold purchases after 13 years: In Q2, South Korea's central bank also joined the buying spree. This is an important geopolitical signal, marking a substantial shift in the asset allocation logic towards US dollar assets in the Asia-Pacific region. 3. Gold ETF short covering: Many investors focus only on central banks but overlook that in July, global physical gold ETFs saw inflows of about $3 billion. This indicates that after the prior sell-off and shakeout, institutional selling pressure has basically dried up. From Shibei's perspective, the whale's position reduction should not be interpreted solely as a "crash warning," but rather as a tactical rotation after profit-taking. XAU market strategy: Short: Light short positions can be taken when the rebound faces resistance in the 4597-4604 range. Long: Gradual long entries can be made when the price stabilizes near 4560-4565 on pullbacks. Brothers, I just took a quick look at the whale order data. Four addresses have placed $250 million worth of orders on BTC, ETH, HYPE, and ZEC. After seeing this, my back went cold.
BTC whale: Currently opened 46.8 long positions at 77,833, 40x full margin. There are 1,176 buy orders hanging below between 72,222-77,522, and 928 sell orders hangi. The clear bet is that BTC will oscillate in the $3,000 range between 77,500-81,500.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest In early 1991, Oracle released a very strange report to the market. The company's revenue still grew by 29%, yet it recorded a quarterly loss of $6.7 million. Banks immediately cut Oracle's credit line from $170 million to $80 million, and the stock price fell about 80% from its peak. A few months earlier, Oracle had already laid off 400 employees, equivalent to 10% of its U.S. workforce. The board even discussed whether to fire founder Larry Ellison. This tech giant, which later supported databases for global banks, telecommunications, governments, and large enterprises, was then very close to bankruptcy. Thirty-five years later, Oracle is once again at the center of controversy in the capital markets. In fiscal year 2026, Oracle invested about $55.7 billion to build AI cloud infrastructure, with free cash flow turning negative $23.7 billion; meanwhile, cloud infrastructure revenue is growing rapidly, and unrecognized contractual obligations have reached $638 billion. What almost destroyed Oracle back then was treating future contracts as current revenue too early. Today, Oracle faces a new challenge: investing huge amounts of cash upfront to build data centers, then waiting for future AI orders to materialize. The database revolution made Oracle run too fast. In 1977, Larry Ellison, Bob Miner, and Ed Oates founded Software Development Laboratories in California, which later became Orac$BTC
First signs of weakness.
So far, this rally was driven by spot buying.
This, however, has now changed.
Spot CVD is declining while perps are pushing price higher.
This makes the move less sustainable and more vulnerable to leverage flushes.
We might see a pullback soon.Tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. $SOL is very likely to experience a significant wave of volatility, with the direction depending on the hawkish or dovish tone of the speech.
Currently, the market environment is not favorable for crypto assets: US July PCE inflation reached 3.7%, well above the 2% target. The market's expectation for a rate hike in September has risen to about 44%, US long-term Treasury yields remain high, and the dollar is relatively strong. Against this backdrop, it is difficult for Wash to send dovish signals.
Scenario analysis: If the speech is hawkish, clearly setting conditions for rate hikes, the rising rate hike expectations will suppress liquidity. SOL, being highly elastic with many leveraged positions, often falls more than Bitcoin, possibly experiencing a deep correction or even a chain of liquidations; if the speech is neutral, providing no clear guidance, the market may see a slight rebound as the "boot drops," but SOL will likely maintain high-level volatility; if unexpectedly dovish, implying the end of the rate hike cycle, risk assets will generally benefit, and SOL may see a rapid surge.
My judgment is that a neutral to slightly hawkish tone is most probable. Since taking office, Wash has deliberately downplayed forward guidance, and with inflation high, it is difficult to expect easing statements. For SOL, tonight's volatility risk far outweighs directional opportunities. Short-term chasing of highs carries considerable risk, and the medium to long-term trend still depends on the September meeting and subsequent inflation data. The above is only an analysis based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Whale Chip Behavior Divergence: BTC Stock Locked, ETH Staking Unlocking Chips in Continuous Contest
On-chain data shows that the proportion of long-term dormant $BTC chips remains high. Despite price rebounds, old whales have not massively transferred to exchanges, indicating strong chip lock-in. Selling pressure mostly comes from external macro shocks, representing passive sell-offs.
$ETH tells a different chip story. On one hand, institutions buy large amounts and stake them directly for long-term allocation; on the other hand, staking unlocks continuously release circulating chips. Whenever the market rallies, chips flow to exchanges, waiting for swing profit realization.
In other words, ETH's selling pressure largely comes from active profit-taking of internal chips.
This explains a market phenomenon: the overall market does not crash significantly, BTC consolidates sideways, yet ETH can independently weaken. BTC is influenced by external macro trends; ETH, besides following the overall market, must continuously digest internal swing profit-taking chips.
From a trading perspective, BTC's position logic cannot be directly applied to ETH. BTC pullbacks are more about macro turning points; even without macro negatives, ETH's large internal chip profit-taking can still suppress its upside potential #Meta stock price rises after massive settlement, risk pricing reassessed
This is quite interesting.
Meta spent $18 billion on the settlement, yet the stock price actually rose by 4 points.
Sounds contradictory, right? But that's how the market works. What it fears is not that you spend money, but that you never know exactly how much you will spend. Although $18 billion is a lot, at least it's a fixed number. The uncertainty is gone once the bomb is defused, so the stock price can breathe.
The money isn't drained all at once. Most of it is paid in installments, with $10 billion provisioned in Q3, and the rest gradually. Meta's annual revenue is over $140 billion, so $18 billion is just a small fraction. The math adds up, and the market thinks it's acceptable.
This script has been seen many times in the crypto world. A project is suppressed by regulators, and the coin price stubbornly refuses to rise. Once the settlement is finalized and the fine amount is known, as long as the company isn't drained, the market often treats it as bad news fully priced in and starts to rally. When Binance settled for $4.3 billion, BNB followed the same pattern.
Here’s my take. $18 billion is indeed not a small number, but Meta's scale can handle it. It has passed the stage of "can it survive" and entered the stage of "spending money to buy certainty." The market accepts this logic: as long as you can quantify the risk and calculate the impact clearly, it will reprice you.
For crypto projects still under regulatory shadows, Meta’s case is a mirror—the market fears "not knowing" more than "how much." As long as you clarify the numbers, the market will naturally provide the answer.
$BTC $ETH $SOL [Pharaoh Market Watch]
StarkWare just did something big on the Bitcoin mainnet—on August 26 at 20:48 UTC, block 964199, a transaction merging 39,179 satoshis and 10,000 satoshis into 44,000 satoshis was mined by MARA Pool, with a fee of 5,179 satoshis. This is not an ordinary transfer; it is the first quantum-resistant transaction in Bitcoin history.
This thing is called QSB (Quantum Safe Bitcoin). The principle is simple: replace Bitcoin's current elliptic curve signatures (which quantum computers can break in minutes using Shor's algorithm) with hash function signatures. Shor's algorithm doesn't work on hashes—in other words, it adds a second lock to Bitcoin transactions, one that quantum computers cannot open.
The cost is high—each transaction costs $75 to $150, takes several hours to process, and uses a non-standard format that requires miner-exclusive channels like MARA Slipstream to broadcast. QSB does not protect addresses whose public keys have already been exposed; it only protects coins transferred into this mechanism.
In the long run, a soft fork is still the optimal solution, but QSB proves that without waiting for protocol upgrades, you can now lock seven-figure or higher holdings into a quantum-resistant safe at a cost of a few hundred dollars. Quantum computers haven't arrived yet, but the lock has already been changed. $BTC $ETH $SOL #StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易 Is the Fed really the big BOSS tonight?
Last night, $NVDA's earnings report directly ignited the AI momentum. Tech stocks were finally ready for a good run, but tonight Fed Chair Warsh is set to speak. The market's biggest dilemma now isn't whether to cut rates, but whether the next step will be a rate hike?
July's PCE year-over-year has already surged to 3.7%, showing inflation is clearly not dead yet. The market now prices about a 35% chance of a rate hike in September, and some are even betting on a full hike before the end of the year. What's more troublesome is that the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 4.6%, and the 30-year yield is approaching around 5.2%.
So what Warsh says tonight is very important.
If he continues to emphasize stubborn inflation and the possibility of rates moving higher, then the high-valuation tech stocks like $NVDA and $AVGO, just ignited by Nvidia last night, will likely have to watch the US Treasury yields closely, and $BTC and gold could also experience volatility together.
But if Warsh is not as hawkish as the market expects, it could instead become a risk relief point. After all, some have already bet on a "September rate hike" in advance, so as long as the speech doesn't ramp up hawkishness, tech stocks might not be afraid.
Tonight, focus on two things: US Treasury yields and the US dollar. Hopefully, after Warsh's speech, yields will drop, allowing the AI rally sparked by Nvidia last night to continue burning; but if the 30-year Treasury yield pushes above 5.2% again, the bulls might gather to criticize the Fed.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ CORE CORE at 0.025 – Stop Chasing PPT Dreams
Price has been stuck for months. The roadmap sounds huge — SatPay, $BTC staking, AMP. Impressive on paper.
But the numbers? ~$59K/month in fees, 9,000 daily users. Real usage, sure. But that kind of revenue can barely fund a buyback.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Many people think that digital currency is a speculative product born out of thin air, but in fact, its technological foundation spans decades. It was born amid the trust crisis of the global financial crisis and gradually evolved from a niche geek toy into a global financial phenomenon. Its rise is both a breakthrough in cryptographic technology implementation and a result driven by the global monetary system, capital demand, and the spirit of the times. 1. The Eve of Birth: The Cypherpunk Movement, Planting the Seeds of Decentralized Currency Even before Bitcoin appeared, a community of cryptography enthusiasts, hackers, and tech geeks known as the cypherpunks had been pondering a question: could they create a digital currency that is not controlled by governments or banks, ensuring privacy, security, and peer-to-peer circulation? In 1998, cryptographer Wei Dai proposed the concept of b-money, Nick Szabo proposed the idea of bit gold, and Adam Back invented the proof-of-work mechanism. These pioneers addressed the two core challenges of digital currency: how to prevent double spending and how to achieve decentralized bookkeeping. However, these solutions remained theoretical and could not be implemented. Traditional electronic payments must rely on banks or third-party platforms as trusted intermediaries. Once the intermediary collapses, overissues currency, or freezes accounts, users' assets lose protection. This is the core pain point digital currency aims to solve. 2. The Official Birth of Bitcoin: A Decentralized Experiment Triggered by the 2008 Financial Crisis In 2008, the global subprime mortgage crisis erupted. Major banks' excessive lending caused systemic risks, governments worldwide printed money on a large scale to rescue markets, and public trust in centralized financial institutions was completely$NVDA's latest quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%; data center revenue reached $89 billion, a year-over-year increase of 117%. The company’s revenue guidance for the next quarter is about $108 billion.
This data indicates that the AI narrative has shifted from "potential future profits" to "computing power generating real revenue."
For the crypto market, AI assets may further diverge:
One category of projects has real users, computing power demand, and protocol revenue; the other still mainly relies on concepts, community sentiment, and short-term capital.
As US stocks like Nvidia enter on-chain trading, investors can directly compare: whether to allocate tokens of US stocks with real cash flow or to take on higher volatility to seek growth potential in crypto-native AI projects.
In the next phase, do you favor US stock tokens or AI crypto projects?
$NVDA
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 At 10 PM tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. As one of the large-cap assets in the crypto market most sensitive to macro liquidity, Ethereum's volatility tonight is very likely to be significant.
The reaction logic of $ETH differs from Bitcoin. Besides being influenced by liquidity expectations, it also carries the attribute of a "rate-sensitive growth asset"—the value of on-chain applications, staking yields, and the Layer2 ecosystem all depend on risk appetite, so changes in U.S. Treasury yields often impact Ethereum more directly than Bitcoin. Currently, the market prices in about a 44% chance of a rate hike in September, with inflation at 3.7%, well above the target, while GDP slows to 1.5%. How Wash frames his speech tonight will directly determine which way this probability swings.
If Wash leans hawkish, emphasizing inflation risks and hinting that a September rate hike is an option, U.S. Treasury yields will spike, and Ethereum will likely plunge sharply, with a faster drop than Bitcoin, causing concentrated liquidations among leveraged longs on-chain; if Wash leans dovish, expressing confidence in cooling inflation and downplaying rate hike expectations, Ethereum usually shows the greatest resilience among major coins, with a rebound potentially significantly exceeding Bitcoin's;
Two points are worth noting: first, initial market moves after Jackson Hole speeches have historically often been false breakouts, so the direction on the night may not be the true direction; second, Ethereum's leverage and derivatives position density are relatively high among major coins, so it is advisable to wait for the speech to settle and sentiment to digest before making judgments. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ The setup here is looking very healthy.
Irrespective of any kind of incoming correction or not, the overall backdrop of this price structure isn't bearish.
1. Price - We have a very strong impulsive move
2. Funding - decreased on this recent vertical accumulation
3. Open Interest - nuking and stabilising
4. Coinbase Premium - flipping green for the first time in 3.5 months
5. Spot volume - has been very strong
This has been a heavily spot driven rally where Open interest is stable. The rebound of SOL is worth noting not just for the price but for structural changes. It rose 46% in August, once surpassing $110, ending a 10-month streak of monthly declines; Solana spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.36 billion in the past week, and treasury companies are also increasing their positions. Funds have returned, but this does not mean a new cycle is confirmed.
On-chain support is improving: 4.48 billion transactions in August, RWA scale at $4.04 billion, stablecoin supply rose to $16.5 billion, and Meme spot volume reached $5.24 billion in a single week. High-frequency capital stays, and when risk appetite rises, elasticity is also evident.
However, it's important to distinguish between activity and value. Meme can boost volume and narratives but may not retain long-term users. SOL is more about capital, sentiment, and fundamental recovery, not a one-time upgrade driving continuous gains. BTC stabilizing and ETF inflows not reversing provide a foundation for SOL to rally; when the market weakens, high Beta means faster pullbacks.
Next, watch two points: whether RWA and stablecoins continue to grow, proving demand is not just speculative; and whether SIMD-550 and 553 can be implemented. The former accelerates inflation reduction, the latter aims to increase daily burns to 7,500–9,000 tokens, improving supply is a plus.
My strategy: respect the strength but do not extrapolate the 46% monthly gain. After the rise, watch for pullback support: contraction in volume and stable on-chain data indicate strength; if only sentiment drives the rally, chasing highs is not cost-effective $SOL $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)$ETH / $BTC is starting to look very interesting.
Most people are still staring at the dollar chart and calling ETH weak. $2,500 looks sticky. BTC is still hovering near $80,000. $SOL is making more noise. So the easy take is “ETH is lagging again.”
That take is incomplete.
The pair is the real chart. ETH/BTC is sitting around 0.031. Not explosive. Not a blow-off. Just a level that starts to matter after years of Ethereum bleeding against Bitcoin. For a long stretch, every BTC bid made ETH look smaller. The ratio kept making lower highs. People stopped treating ETH as a catch-up trade and started treating it as a permanent underperformer.
That is the trend that may be breaking.
A multi-year downtrend does not snap in one session. It snaps when the market stops rewarding the same trade. BTC strength first. ETH later. Alts never. That sequence has been the default. When ETH/BTC starts holding instead of rolling over, the sequence is the thing that changes.
This is why the dollar chart can lie to you.
ETH can chop around $2,500 and still be building relative strength.
BTC can look like the leader and still be the asset capital rotates out of.
A pair breakout is not a victory candle. It is the market quietly changing who gets the next bid.
The backdrop is not empty either.
ETH spot ETFs have been taking size. Not always bigger than Bitcoin in raw dollars, but heavy relative to ETH’s market cap. That is not how a discarded asset trades. Whales have been adding while the chart looked boring. Staking keeps pulling supply off the table. The product is still the settlement layer a huge part of crypto actually runs on. None of that requires BTC to crash. It only requires BTC to stop absorbing every dollar that enters the market.
That is usually how catch-up starts.
First the leader runs.
Then the leader pauses.
Then the asset that spent years underperforming gets the rotation.$CORE Eternal Trio: Coming Soon, Right Away, Very Soon
Having been immersed in the CORE community for a long time, everyone is already familiar with the project's universal catchphrases: Coming Soon, Right Away, Very Soon.
Grid narratives, BTCFi ecosystem, SatPay payments, grand concepts are hyped one after another with nonstop promotion. Reviewing over time, not a single one has truly been implemented or operational.
The official side always compares the total supply of 2.1 billion to Bitcoin to emphasize scarcity, yet deliberately downplays the ultra-long token release cycle of 81 years, casually glossing over the continuous new selling pressure.
This playbook has long been perfected.
Every so often, a new concept is thrown out, relying on vague phrases like "Coming Soon, Right Away, Very Soon" to paint a rosy picture, keeping retail investors hopeful and continuously feeding hope to those trapped.
Ultimately, it’s a repeatedly played empty city stratagem. The city walls are noisy with drums and gongs, banners of good news hang everywhere, but upon closer look, the city is empty inside with no substantial business support.
Projects that work earnestly rely on version updates, on-chain data, and real users to speak for themselves, without needing to stabilize the community with long-term vague previews.
When output can’t keep up with promotion, indefinite phrases are repeatedly used to delay fulfillment.
"Coming Soon" does not mean completion, "Right Away" does not mean launch, and most of the time "Very Soon" is just a polite way of saying indefinitely delayed.
Many retail investors wait patiently with faith for implementation, year after year.
The project team only needs to keep weaving new stories to maintain community sentiment.
Don’t mistake promotional releases for report cards; previews are ultimately just previews. No matter how splendid the story, without real demand to support it, it remains a castle in the air.289 tons is the Q2 record, with a year-on-year increase of about 62%; more importantly, this batch of funds occurred against the backdrop of a quarterly gold price pullback of about 8%, indicating that central banks are buying for reserve allocation, not chasing the rally. China increased its holdings by 33 tons in a single quarter, and Poland bought as much as 51 tons, showing very strong demand. The market has actually priced in part of this in advance: spot gold $XAU recently surged back to about $4696, currently still above $4600; global physical gold ETFs also saw a net inflow of about $3 billion in July, indicating institutional funds have caught up. The real beneficiaries I favor more are gold mining companies, rather than simply chasing gold. For example, Harmony's profits surged 87% year-on-year, Agnico's Q2 EPS rose 57% year-on-year, and the gold price increase is directly translating into profits and cash flow. I am most optimistic about AEM (Agnico Eagle). Central bank gold buying is a slow variable, but mining company profits can amplify gold price increases. Expectations around gold at about 4700 are already priced in, but the revaluation of mining company earnings is not yet complete and deserves continued attention; corrections are more comfortable than chasing highs $XAU $BTC $ETH Nvidia exploded, Okta and CrowdStrike exploded, KOSPI hit a new all-time high again. With so many tech positives coming out, logically, these Korean AI chip sellers should collectively take off, right? But they didn't. Korean stock investors thought it would take off today, but why did it still fall? KOSPI weakened today, once dropping below 6900 in the morning session. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also retreated. I now seriously suspect that all those previous positives were just manipulations by big players to cut this wave of retail investors. But we also need to reflect on why. It feels like the AI rosy outlook suddenly cooled down. This indicates the market is starting to doubt whether AI capital expenditure can keep surging. Funds are collectively fleeing the Korean tech stock sector. This points to one thing: the market is no longer easily excited. AI is indeed impressive, but maybe the stock prices have already run up prematurely. Once this signal comes out, storage tokens like SanDisk and on-chain AI concept coins will directly face pressure. SanDisk has been dropping like crazy these past two days. I originally wanted to place a long order at 1420, but now I have some doubts. MD, this is making me lose my touch. The market has been acting crazy these past two days; good news doesn't push prices up, which itself is a signal. Don't act when emotions are unclear; wait until things become clearer. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The US stock market pre-market has currently shut down; now we just have to wait for Kevin Walsh's speech at 10 PM tonight, hopefully it will be dovish.
There are three scenarios:
1. Hawkish (emphasizing inflation risks, keeping rate hike options open): US Treasury yields rise, the dollar strengthens; US stocks and gold come under pressure, growth AI stocks face greater pressure.
2. Dovish (implying no further tightening needed): US Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens; favorable for US tech stocks and gold.
3. Continue to be vague (only discussing long-term framework, avoiding interest rate issues): this is Walsh's usual style, the market will interpret it negatively, the bond market will demand higher term premiums, intensifying volatility.
The current mainstream market expectation is that he is unlikely to give very clear signals on rate hikes or cuts, leaning more towards discussing long-term issues, taking a "middle path," but a sharp market reaction after the speech cannot be ruled out. Gold surged 14% in August! The cracks in the US dollar's credit are widening. Since August, international gold prices have soared from $4040/oz to around $4750, with a monthly increase of over 14%. On August 26, intraday prices once hit $4730.90, a nearly three-month high. This is not an ordinary rebound—gold is being repriced. Three major driving forces: 1. Loosening US dollar credit. The total US federal government debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. The deficit in the first 10 months of this fiscal year has reached $1.799 trillion, with interest payments alone consuming nearly $1.2 trillion. The market is voting with its feet: US debt is no longer a "risk-free asset." The Fed tightens monetary policy while the Treasury expands fiscal spending—this contradiction at the $40 trillion scale is beginning to shake the credit foundation of the US dollar. 2. The Treasury's "debt rescue" becomes a catalyst. On August 19, the US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks, doubling the single transaction cap from $2 billion to $4 billion. But $4 billion buybacks are a drop in the bucket compared to the $5.5 trillion stock of long-term debt. The market interprets this as the US debt problem being severe enough to require Treasury intervention. "Devaluation trades" reignite—funds flow into gold and Bitcoin. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have seen combined inflows of about $7 billion. 3. The gold pricing logic is being reconstructed. Previously, gold was priced based on real interest rates, but since 2024 this model has started to "derail." Even with the 10-year US Treasury yield as high as 4.75%, gold prices continue to rise. The driving variable is shifting from Fed interest rates to US fiscal sustainability. Most intriguingNVIDIA ignited the AI market again overnight.
This wave was timed just right.
With earnings and guidance both exceeding expectations, the stock price surged 8.7% in a single day, adding about $442 billion in market value, nearly 3 trillion RMB, pushing the total market cap to $5.49 trillion.
The most striking thing isn't the price increase.
It's the expectations.
The market was already optimistic about future growth, but NVIDIA's guidance raised those expectations even higher.
What does this mean?
The demand for AI computing power hasn't yet hit a real turning point.
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are still pouring money into building data centers. As long as capital expenditures don't hit the brakes, NVIDIA's GPU demand is unlikely to suddenly cool off.
Even more noteworthy is Hugging Face.
NVIDIA reportedly plans to acquire it for about $12.9 billion.
Is it expensive?
Looking only at revenue multiples, it is indeed outrageously pricey.
But what NVIDIA is likely buying isn't just that revenue, but the models, developers, open-source community, and AI ecosystem entry points.
It used to be about selling GPUs.
Then it was CUDA.
Now it’s about capturing the AI ecosystem.
That’s the most important aspect to watch.
Meanwhile, software stocks are starting to revive.
Salesforce and Anthropic’s AI collaboration has refocused the market on "AI monetization."
So the AI market is evolving from:
Computing power → Models → Applications → Commercialization
What truly determines the next phase’s height isn’t who tells the biggest story, but who can turn AI into real cash.
Right now, I’m watching three indicators:
Whether AI capital expenditures can continue to rise;
Whether NVIDIA’s data center revenue can keep beating expectations;
Whether software companies can convert AI users into cash flow.
As long as these three hold true,
this AI market rally is far from over.
But with valuations this high, the next battle isn’t imagination, but performance.
Expectations can be raised infinitely, but profits must ultimately catch up.
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 以前买黄金怕打仗，现在买黄金怕法币变纸 时代变了 最近数据里，165个黄金大户多头赚了，胜率84%，仓位是空头的两倍 另一边108个空头亏了，还在硬扛谁占上风，数字摆在这 价格上，黄金这周从4697跌到4610，三次冲4700都没过去，短线在4600附近来回磨。但跌了也就90美金，下面接盘的人不少，说明多头没跑远。别忘了，8月黄金已经涨了600美金，月线级别还是涨势 花旗银行喊出3个月看4800，6个月看5000，机构不只是说说，是真金白银在买
黄金现在为啥涨？老说法是避险，现在多了一条美元债务破40万亿，钱不值钱，市场在重新抢稀缺资产 连灰度报告都提了，比特币和黄金的相关性超过50%，资金在重新配置 今晚沃什讲话是关键。如果他嘴硬，金价可能回踩4550；如果嘴软，继续冲4700
操作思路：
做多，激进选手现在就能试，稳健的等4550-4570企稳再进
做空，等4635-4680附近涨不动了再考虑 记住： 别追涨杀跌，看方向比看波动重要