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Meta's stock price rose after the massive settlement, once again showing the market's cold-blooded nature
Many people see the sky-high number and think it's a major negative, but what investors really calculate is: whether this money is controllable, whether the timeline is extended, and whether the business model has been dismantled. If the answer is "it can still operate," bad news is instead treated as uncertainty being released
It's uncomfortable, but very real. The capital market is not responsible for moral judgment; it is responsible for pricing risk. As long as algorithm recommendations, advertising systems, and AI computing power narratives remain, the settlement looks more like an expensive fine rather than a fundamental transformation
So this kind of rise does not mean the problem has disappeared, it only means the market thinks the problem has been incorporated into the financial model
It sounds cold, but this is the strongest aspect of big companies: depreciating the storm into a cost
#Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 ETH supply increased by 20,125 over the past 7 days, which feels more like a reminder. After the coin price lifted from the low, what the market fears most has never been the issuance itself, but everyone mistaking improved liquidity as a free pass for a one-sided rally.
The U.S. Treasury recently expanded long-term bond repurchase operations, long-end yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk assets moved first, with BTC and ETH following with increased volume. The ETH spot ETF has also recorded consecutive net inflows, indicating institutions are still buying. But macro funds buy on expectations, while on-chain new supply and exchange deposits sell chips that can be cashed out at any time. These two forces will tug back and forth at the highs.
I tend to interpret this ETH rally as a combination of liquidity, policy expectations, and short covering. It can push prices up quickly but also cause sharp pullbacks. An increase of 20,125 in supply won’t change ETH’s long-term narrative but will amplify short-term sentiment, especially when leverage starts to build.
Next, watch three things: whether ETF net inflows can continue, whether U.S. Treasury yields will rise again, and where the new ETH ultimately flows—to staking, on-chain applications, or exchanges. The first two determine whether funds want to stay in the market, and the last determines if there is enough support for the rally. If liquidity remains loose, ETH still has room to test higher. If macro expectations turn cold, this incremental supply will be magnified by the market, and funds chasing highs will bear the volatility first. Right now, it’s more suitable to watch the capital structure $ETH $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Avici caused approximately $1M loss to 1,685 users due to a security vulnerability and is currently planning full compensation. Another report estimates the loss at about $0.5M, but Ajian believes the significance of this matter lies not in the exact amount lost, but in whether compensation is provided, how it is provided, and who is responsible for it.
For a payment product, security incidents are not frightening; what is frightening is when the project has no compensation plan and no clear user liability statement. A well-functioning risk resistance framework must have an accident budget. For ordinary users, when using such crypto cards/neobanks, remember to first carefully review the compensation terms, custodians, and withdrawal permissions I made myself a list of trading mistakes, and every time I lose money, I jot it down. After half a year, I found it’s always the same few types.
One type is called "chasing the rise"—seeing a big bullish candle in five minutes, I get impulsive and jump in, only to buy at the peak.
Another type is "bottom fishing"—thinking it’s time to rebound after a big drop, but there’s still eighteen layers of hell below.
There’s also the "panic selling" type—cutting losses as soon as a support breaks, only to see the price bounce right back, which is infuriating.
I print out these mistakes and stick them next to my computer, taking a look before every order.
Sometimes just looking at them calms me down, and if I realize my current move matches one on the list exactly, I stop immediately.
This method works better than any technical indicator because it directly targets my own weaknesses.
Now I have a rule for myself: every time I want to trade, I must write down at least three reasons clearly.
If I can’t come up with them or the reasons don’t hold up, I don’t make the trade.
For example, reasons like "feeling it will rise" get crossed out immediately because feelings are the least reliable.
Also, "everyone in the group says it’s good" doesn’t count—if group members could make money, they wouldn’t still be in the group.
I now only allow myself to trade in two situations: one is when the preset order price is reached, and the other is when there’s a major fundamental change.
The latter rarely happens, so most of the time I’m just placing orders and waiting.
While waiting, I don’t stay idle—I review my past mistake records to refresh my memory.
You’ll find people always make the same mistakes, like being stuck in a loop, unable to break free.
But recording is the switch that breaks the cycle, giving you a buffer when you’re impulsive.
I’ve strictly followed this for the past three months. Although I missed some opportunities, I also avoided several big crashes.
Losing less is earning more—this truth took me two years to truly accept.
And after recording more, I have a clearer understanding of myself and know when I’m most likely to lose control.
For example, I found I’m especially impulsive to place orders after midnight, so now I shut down my computer at that time.
These details are more important than any $BTC and $ETH price chart.
After all, the market is always open, but your capital is limited.
Being able to control yourself is way more powerful than predicting the market.
I now treat this list as a treasure and occasionally
flip through it to remind myself not to be that familiar fool again.
Stay steady, and you’ll wait out for the opportunity that belongs to you. SOL at $103, do you dare to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: a barrage of positive news, but the price doesn't rise.
In the past two weeks, it surged from 75 to 110, a nearly 40% increase in about a month. SGP-0002 passed, raising annual inflation from 15% to 30%, reducing SOL issuance by 18.8 million over the next 6 years. Bitwise BSOL AUM broke $1 billion, with $60.91 million inflow on August 27 alone. Charles Schwab plans to add SOL to its trading channels. All good news. Yet SOL dropped from 110 back to 103.
Daily chart shows overbought pullback, 4-hour uptrend line broken, the 100 level is a battleground between bulls and bears.
First thing: SGP-0002 passed, but you might have been misled.
Voting result was 67.001%, just over the two-thirds threshold. Kraken flipped to bullish at the last moment to barely pass. Why so tight?
Because staking yields will be suppressed. Models show nominal staking yield dropping from 5.2% to 2.25% in three years. Validator interests are divided.
Retail sees "deflationary benefits," institutions see "big stakers withdrawing." SGP-0003 (increasing burn) failed; daily burn remains 650 SOL, supply reduction relies on "printing less" rather than "burning more."
Second thing: ETF funds are still flowing in, but macro is not buying it.
Bitwise pumped in $60.91 million in one day, ARK is still buying, Solana-related products have net inflows, but BTC is withdrawing massively—$280 million outflow.
Friday’s Jackson Hole debut, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hawkish: PCE at 3.7%, 2% is the "hard target," "if inflation doesn’t return to target, we still have work to do." September rate hike odds rose from 35% to 55%-60%.
BTC dropped from 81,000 directly to 77,600. Gold also fell, risk assets uniformly priced for "higher for longer."
Third thing: technicals show divergence signals.
From 75 to 110, SOL rose 46%. Daily RSI hit 70-80 overbought zone, now retreating to neutral. 4-hour uptrend line broken, short-term bears drawing a "108-110 rejection" pattern.
But daily structure remains: higher lows. 75→87→95→102, this uptrend is intact. 100 is a newly broken psychological level; first retest, bulls must defend.
Bull vs bear showdown, judge for yourself
On one side:
SGP-0002 passed, annual deflation doubled, supply contraction
Bitwise ETF $60.91 million single-day inflow, institutions putting real money in
Charles Schwab channel opened, mid-term retail capital expectations
TVL $5.85 billion, stablecoins $16 billion, no on-chain sell-off
Daily chart still higher lows structure
On the other side:
Jackson Hole hawkish turn, September hike odds up to 55-60%
110 volume sell-off, 4-hour trend line broken
Staking yield to drop from 5.2% to 2.25%, validator interests diverging
Avici hacked for $500,000, weekend sentiment dampened
If BTC breaks 75,000, SOL’s 100 level likely lost too
Resistance above: 104.5-106 (intraday bull-bear divide) → 108-110.6 (core supply zone) → 112-115
Support below: 102-100 (first defense line) → 97.5-98.5 (golden retracement zone) → 94-95.5 (main uptrend invalidation line)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
103 is not the best entry point. Wait to place low buy orders at 100.2-100.8, stop loss 95.8, target 108. If rebound stalls at 105.8-108.2, short the pullback, stop loss 110.8, target 101-98.
Swing traders:
Scale in long at 100-102, add 50-60% at 97-98, stop loss 95.8. Take 30% profit at 106-108, another 30% at 110.5, keep some for 115-120. Remember to reduce positions at 108-110.
Long-term believers:
Blindly dollar-cost average at 96-100. Institutional channels + supply contraction + real usage all improving simultaneously, mid-term logic intact.
Invalidation conditions:
4-hour close above 106 and BTC steady at 78,000 → bulls retake control
Daily close below 96 with volume → 100 breakout failed, look at 92 then 86
BTC daily breaks 75,000 → all technical levels give way, reduce positions first
SOL now looks like ETH in August 2025—
Supply cut proposal just passed, ETF inflows continue, retail oscillating between "chasing highs and getting trapped" and "cutting losses and missing out."
The day 104.5 is reclaimed, you’ll realize:
It’s not that SOL is weak, it’s that you always chase at the 110 peak and sell at the 100 floor.
What’s your SOL cost basis?
At 103, do you dare to bottom-fish?
$BTC $SOL $ETH BTC is holding near highs after breaking $80K as flows remain divided. U.S. spot ETFs see net inflows, while profit-taking, options hedging and leveraged shorts rise alongside large onchain longs. Grayscale shows BTC's 90-day gold correlation rose from near zero at year-start to over 50%, while its Nasdaq 100 correlation fell to ~33%. The issue is whether BTC is shifting from a tech-risk trade to a debasement hedge. Higher rates and deleveraging could still dominate if the link proves temporary.The saying "100 CORE equals 1 BTC" has been circulating in the community recently. The origin of this number is actually a simple arithmetic problem: the total supply of CORE is 2.1 billion tokens, exactly one hundred times the supply of 21 million Bitcoins. Some have speculated from this that assuming the combined market capitalization of two networks gradually approaches over the long term, this correspondence in unit price will naturally appear. But first, a basic fact needs to be clarified: this phrase did not appear in official project documents or announcements; it seems more like a community member's imagination based on tokenomics parameters rather than performance promises from the project team. The core logic behind this is that if the Core chain truly becomes an important infrastructure in the Bitcoin ecosystem, attracting large amounts of BTC to participate in staking, payment, and DeFi applications, market demand for CORE could indeed grow significantly. However, Bitcoin has built global consensus over more than a decade, with a market cap reaching the trillion-dollar level. For a new network's total market cap to catch up with it, the entire BTC-Fi track needs to achieve a comprehensive breakthrough from technology to commercialization, with many variables involved. A total supply of 100 times does not necessarily mean market cap will be equal; token value ultimately depends on real on-chain demand and market recognition. Rather than focusing on this distant idea, it is better to observe more pragmatic indicators: whether the amount of staked BTC continues to grow, whether ecosystem applications can truly be implemented, and whether on-chain activity is steadily improving. The vision can be retained, but actions must still be rational. Risk warning: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile,#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 In one sentence: Walsh gave the most hawkish inflation standard in a speech that didn’t feel like a forward guidance, while announcing that he will no longer set market expectations — if inflation doesn’t fall cleanly, interest rates will hang over us; but don’t expect me to tell you when the cuts will start from now on.
Overall, this speech is still neutral to hawkish, so we can continue holding our short positions and consider reducing them when it reaches the 13 range.#Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估
$16.7 billion settlement is just a discount sale compared to the $1.4 trillion "death sentence." The market is rising not because of the settlement itself, but because the "worst-case scenario did not happen."
Meta agreed to pay up to $16.68 billion to settle lawsuits from 29 states accusing its platform of "inducing addiction in children." Previously, states claimed damages ranging from $200 billion to $1.4 trillion. Upon the news, pre-market shares rose 4.4%, and at the open surged as high as 4.1%. However, it later retreated, closing up only 1.07% at $576.14, with intraday dips into negative territory.
Citigroup said the settlement was "far below expectations," reiterated a buy rating with a target price of $800. Morningstar believes the discounted $16.7 billion is less than 1% of market value, and Meta remains undervalued. But Gary Black warned that the short-term "sword hanging overhead" has been removed; Meta cannot pass litigation costs onto users like tobacco companies, and thousands of individual lawsuits remain. Rosenblatt slightly raised the target price to $886. BMO maintained a $580 target price. B Riley warned that if the judiciary ultimately rules that the platform's algorithm "deliberately causes addiction in children," it could overturn the entire social media industry.
The settlement defused one bomb, but Meta still carries $145 billion in AI capital expenditures and $145 billion in litigation risks. The market's real concern has never been the one-time $16.7 billion, but the simultaneous existence of AI cash burn and regulatory uncertainty. The $16.7 billion buys "short-term certainty," not a long-term shield.#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
September rate hike probability 35% → 58%, BTC falls back along with gold 📉
Wash's Jackson Hole debut: inflation above target, financial conditions not tight enough, employment close to full employment—summed up in three sentences: not tight enough yet.
The key is he wants to "reduce forward guidance"—rely on data going forward, not the Fed's words. Every CPI release is a repricing.
In the tightening cycle, BTC's anchor is liquidity expectations. Next, watch three things: CPI, non-farm payrolls, financial conditions index. It's very interesting to observe this phenomenon.
After Bitcoin retraced to the 4H EMA, the bears immediately became very active.
I discussed this exact scenario in detail in the previous newsletter, and this is precisely why almost everyone misses this kind of rebound.
First, almost no one buys at the bottom because the timeline has given them severe PTSD; they just keep expecting lower prices. If the price drops further, they still won't buy because they continue to expect even lower prices.
Second, the price then indeed surges sharply from the low point, and many start to worry that they missed the bottom. However, they won't buy because they "wait for a pullback" or fear a dump.
Third, some kind of pullback finally arrives, but they still don't buy because the bears start making noise again, insisting that even lower prices are coming.
Then, finally, the price pushes higher again, and everyone FOMOs chasing the highs.
Now, we have reclaimed the key levels that needed to be recovered before every previous bottom rebound, but the vast majority will hold onto the bearish view for too long.
We have achieved:
- 1D RSI above 85
- 1W 50EMA reclaimed
- 1D 200 SMA + EMA reclaimed
These three things happening simultaneously mark every cycle bottom we've experienced, yet they are ignored due to sentiment.Has anyone noticed that recently the market trend is unaffected by policy news? This phenomenon has been continuously appearing, and professional analysts usually call it the reverse logic of “buying expectations, selling facts” — more precisely, “bad news is priced in, good news is amplified.” With the continuous buying of $BTC ETF and $ETH ETF, institutions are also pouring in, which surprisingly resonates with people and might truly mark the start of a bull market. Support at the bottom keeps coming, and there are always big buyers propping it up. This only indicates one thing: the market is now playing by the logic of “bad news = good news.” The weaker the economic data (or the stricter the policy), the sooner the Federal Reserve has to pivot to easing. So when bad news comes out, big money actually rushes ahead, betting that policies will become friendlier. This is a typical policy bottom game, not a fundamental bottom. Personally, I think the next real factor affecting the market trend will be whether the Federal Reserve raises or cuts rates in September. Before that, the market may just oscillate around the highs and lows of this rally. The current major trend might only be to either add enough margin, or rush to catch enough bottoms or highs with low leverage, which might yield different results. For short-term trading, swing trading, buying low and selling high might be just right. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Viewing On-Exchange Buyer Momentum Intensity from SVD Data
The chart below shows the 24-hour average SVD (Spot Volume Delta) data for Binance and Coinbase; that is, the taker's transaction difference, where positive indicates buyer dominance and negative indicates seller dominance.
From the data, since the market started on August 19, Coinbase's SVD has remained positive, but the three peaks I circled are consecutively decreasing.
This reflects a stepwise weakening of Bitcoin's active buying strength, a typical volume-price divergence.
Binance also shows decreasing peaks, and after August 26, it turned negative overall, marking the deepest seller dominance of the entire month.
This can be interpreted on two levels:
🚩 Seller dominance without price decline may rely on passive limit orders or ETF primary market absorption that is not reflected in taker data.
If subsequent selling pressure gradually diminishes, essentially the chips are transferring from short-term profit-taking to demand-side holders, which is a digestion process.
🚩 It can be seen that market sentiment has shifted from comprehensive chasing before and around August 20 to a high-level divergence phase, with upward momentum entering a decay period.
Looking only at active buying, under the current situation, a further significant rally would be quite challenging.
For a secondary upward attack to occur, selling pressure must be fully digested, or external forces must catalyze market sentiment again.Ethereum has been a bit conflicted recently. On the surface, the spot ETF has seen nine consecutive days of net inflows, totaling about $1.42 billion, with BlackRock's product taking a large share. This is a significant number, indicating that capital is still willing to treat it as a core position for $ETH
But on the other hand, in the past seven days, supply has increased by more than 20,000 coins, issuance has exceeded burning, and network activity hasn't been particularly strong
This is the most interesting aspect of Ethereum. Unlike some assets that rely solely on a single narrative
Its strength comes from institutional capital, the underlying ecosystem, and long-term consensus
Its weakness is equally obvious: once supply loosens, the price immediately feels the pressure
So I don't want to simply label it as "bullish capital." That would be too simplistic. A more accurate way to put it is that capital is indeed buying, but the buying pressure is still hedging against the new supply
At this stage, Ethereum seems to be pulled by two forces simultaneously: one is the pricing brought by ETFs, and the other is the reality of on-chain supply and cooling activity
If you only look at inflows, you'd think it's strong; if you only look at supply, you'd think it's not clean enough
The real answer might be this: it is still the main theme, but it's not yet time to fully relax on $ETH Wash never mentioned the words "rate hike" throughout, the market scared itself, gold lost 670 billion in 7 minutes
I was watching Wash's speech closely last night, and he never mentioned the four words "September rate hike" from start to finish. His exact words were: inflation is still above the 2% target, the data is not enough to prove a substantial improvement in the trend, and the Fed "still has work to do." He emphasized throughout to look at data, trends, and cross-validation. At the beginning, he said, "Don't take today's speech as forward guidance"—refusing to give any rate commitments, repeatedly stressing that whether to raise rates depends on data, don't guess.
The market is too sensitive, adding drama to itself. The probability of a rate hike jumped from 35% directly to 60%, gold evaporated 670 billion in 7 minutes, and BTC dropped to a low of 76800. His hawkish tone is because he must admit inflation is not resolved yet, but that doesn't mean a rate hike is certain in September.
He said to focus on trends rather than single-month data points, relying on "relevant, timely, accurate, and actionable data"—this is clearly to cool down the market: don't blindly guess based on one month's data.
My judgment: the real turning point is the CPI on September 13. Before that, BTC's panic sentiment around 76800-77500 has mostly been released. Don't be led by the market's self-induced fear, wait for the data to come out before making decisions. $BTC $ETH $XAU
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 $CORE To see if a project has potential, don't just look at the K-line; first see who is speaking, who is silent, and who is changing their stance. The CORE of August 2026 has a more interesting public opinion scene than the market itself. Overseas: Small and medium KOLs repost posters, data analysts only recognize TVL. The external voices are highly concentrated—not researchers writing reports, but small and medium KOLs reposting official posters. Abdoul Konkorg tweeted in August: "August could be a very bullish month for CORE, projects that build solid products around Bitcoin will eventually be rewarded." The image is the official "Stake Bitcoin — Explore Bitcoin DeFi" poster. His logic supports Satoshi Plus + BTCFi track differentiation but provides no on-chain data support, belonging to "narrative-based bullishness." François Hervé Umba (French-speaking area), MoiniCore (ecosystem volunteer) followed the repost; MoiniCore's original words were "The only remaining task is to truly launch the product"—the clearest sentence among the bulls, admitting the narrative is ahead of implementation. Accounts like Imperium Cryptos posting "Core will be very big" are more of a fear-of-missing-out type of call, with low reference value. Among the neutral camp is Neil Richard (B截至2026年8月底，加密货币市场正处于一个非常关键的阶段。 如果只看加密行业内部，当前市场其实存在不少积极因素：比特币和以太坊现货ETF重新获得大规模资金流入，美国加密监管框架逐渐清晰，稳定币正在进一步进入传统金融体系，机构资金对数字资产的参与程度也在持续提高。 但另一方面，真正决定短期市场方向的力量，却正在重新回到宏观经济。 美联储的政策态度、美国通胀、就业数据、美债收益率、美元指数以及地缘政治带来的能源价格变化，都可能直接影响比特币下一阶段的走势。 因此，当前加密市场最大的矛盾可以概括为一句话： 加密行业自身基本面正在改善，但全球宏观流动性环境仍然对风险资产形成压力。 一、美联储重新成为加密市场最大的变量 近期市场最值得关注的变化，是美联储政策预期重新转向鹰派。 在Jackson Hole相关讲话中，美联储主席Kevin Warsh再次强调价格稳定的重要性。由于美国通胀仍然明显高于2%的长期目标，市场开始重新评估未来利率继续维持高位、甚至进一步收紧的可能性。 这对加密市场非常重要。 过去几年，比特币已经越来越明显地表现出全球流动性资产的特征。 当市场预期美联储降息时，美债收益率通The quantum computing sector has significantly increased risk appetite under the push of strategic capital, with long-term valuation premiums being excessively inflated. Pasqal achieved a $2 billion valuation based on only €16.5 million in revenue, and multiple governments and major corporations have invested tens of billions of dollars, driving market funds to prematurely concentrate in ultra-long-term positions. Once macro inflation rises and discount rates increase, long-term valuations will face severe compression, and risk positions will quickly retreat to more liquid assets. Going forward, key points to watch include the actual delivery pace of the 13 units annual production capacity and the timing of government procurement funds arrival.
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款#沃什 emphasizes inflation risks, September rate hike expectations heat up $BTC $XAUT
Last night, #沃什 firmly addressed inflation risks, shifting September from "most likely no change" to a coin toss.
He acknowledges three things: the 2% target is dead, the summer inflation data sets are insufficient, and current financial conditions are not tight. The strongest statement remains—there must be confidence that underlying inflation is clearly and quickly returning to 2%, or more work is needed. Prices come first, interest rates remain the main tool. He gave no definitive word on whether there will be a hike in September.
The market fills in the blanks itself. CME raised the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September from about 35% to 56%-60%, the two-year US Treasury yield closed near 4.34%, jumping about ten basis points. Gold dropped over 3%, Bitcoin crashed from 81,500 to 76,900. Barclays and Société Générale have already revised their stance, pricing in one hike each in September and December.
My view: rising expectations do not mean September is locked in. #沃什 provides a ruler, not a date. There are still non-farm payrolls and inflation data ahead; a 50-50 chance leaning towards a hike only means fewer shorts. Rate-sensitive assets have already been cut once; chasing shorts now is betting on the next data set, not trading last night’s speech.
Before new data arrives, treat this as a pricing adjustment, not a policy implementation. On August 28, 2026, French quantum computing company Pasqal went public on NASDAQ. The stock price rose as much as 73% intraday and closed up about 40%. Through the merger, the company raised about $360 million, bringing its IPO valuation to around $2 billion. Pasqal's revenue in 2025 is only 16.5 million euros, and it currently deploys seven quantum computers, with a combined production capacity of about 13 units per year in France and Canada. Limited revenue and immature technology yet a $2 billion valuation indicate that capital is buying ahead of a distant future. Meanwhile, IBM plans to invest over $10 billion in quantum computing over the next five years; The U.S. government is preparing to invest about $2 billion and acquire partial equity in nine quantum-related companies; The UK announced a quantum plan of up to £2 billion, with £1.2 billion allocated to purchasing large quantum computers. Quantum computing has moved from university laboratories into government industrial policy, capital spending by tech giants, and global security competition. From a physics experiment to a national-level industry In 1981, physicist Richard Feynman proposed that classical computers struggled to effectively simulate the quantum world, and perhaps machines that follow quantum laws should be used to study it. In 1994, Peter Shor proposed a quantum algorithm that, in theory, could quickly decompose large integers. Modern networks use partially public-key encryption, and the security foundation is something classical computers find difficult to accomplish. Since then, the significance of quantum computing has expanded in two directions. A silent and eerie weekend, the current state between the US and Iran remains "fighting to promote talks," though the fighting has shifted from military conflict to economic and energy games.
Of course, the silence does not mean calm; it's estimated that this weekend the phone lines between the US, Iran, and Middle Eastern countries must be smoking. Trump verbally says "I don't want to meet, I don't want to talk."
In fact, he is subtly signaling to the media that the Bank of China might be added to the US secondary sanctions list against Iran. The core of this empty bluff is likely to have China step in to mediate and lower Iran's bargaining chips. Now it depends on whether China will take the bait!
Trump's lack of urgency at this moment is indeed somewhat laughable! #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 Historically, every green August since 2013 has been followed by a red September. The average September pullback was roughly 5.9%, with no exceptions in the sample. August 2026 is currently up more than 20%, making it Bitcoin's strongest August since 2017. If history rhymes, September could bring the next meaningful correction before Q4. But remember: seasonality is a tendency, not a guarantee. The real drivers remain ETF flows, liquidity, and macro conditions. Watch the market. Not the calendarAccurate or not? Go back and check. Yesterday's exact words: There will be one more stress test in September, either Wash or CPI, pick one. The pit dug out by the test is the last cheap chip of this round. The only uncertain factor along the entire chain is Wash's mouth, and I am also reading his script.
The deadline I gave was mid-September. He submitted overnight. On his 100th day in office, at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, once Wash spoke, the whole market changed overnight — the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% directly to 60%, and the probability of a rate hike within 2026 was pushed to 68% by Polymarket. Gold fell below $4,500 overnight, dropping more than 3%. BTC crashed from above 81,000 to 76,930, down 5.6%. In my script, I wrote "a 5% to 8% correction," the magnitude was exactly right, only the timing was half a month earlier. Don't ask me how I knew Wash would flip the table, I read his script more accurately than I read the man himself.
The harshest part of this speech was not the hawkish tone, but that he personally buried the forward guidance. No more dot plots, no interest rate paths, the whole market is guessing blind boxes. Translated into plain language: volatility is about to take off. People betting on direction won't even have a reference point anymore, which is why $200 million exploded in 60 minutes last night — no one knows where the bottom is, stop-loss orders triggered a chain stampede.
75,000 to 76,000, not a single word changed on the script's coordinates. On Monday's close, we'll check the answers against the candlestick chart.
#Wash #JacksonHole #RateHike #BTC #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 "15 Million Monthly Active Wallets Delist Sui: Why Can't the Multi-Chain Story Continue After the Public Chain Subsidy Retreat?"
The leading wallet Phantom, with 15 million monthly active users, suddenly announced it will completely remove support for the Sui network on September 24.
The total locked value in the ecosystem has plummeted over 80% from a high of $2.6 billion, and the number of active on-chain addresses has sharply declined after token incentives faded.
Non-EVM architectures require dedicated teams to maintain exclusive nodes and signature modules. The low on-chain transaction volume means embedded exchange fees cannot cover costs.
The earned fees are not even enough to pay cloud service bills. After calculating real expenses, multi-chain wallets choose to proactively delist inefficient branches to cut losses.
The official team has opened a 1-month fee-free asset migration window. The old model of public chains relying on high subsidies to buy prosperity is being brutally broken by commercial revenue and expenditure realities. $SUI Hitting $3.5 Trillion Revenue Seven Years Early: Is Musk's Space Computing Dream Just a Pipe Dream or a Moat?
Musk responded to Morgan Stanley, saying that if AI and computing power businesses go smoothly, SpaceX will reach $3.5 trillion in revenue seven years earlier than originally predicted.
This astronomical figure seems exaggerated, but the logic behind it is traceable. Falcon and Starship have driven down orbital costs to extremely low levels, and Starlink's global subscriptions continuously contribute high-margin cash flow, completely solving the pain point of space spending.
What truly raises the valuation ceiling is the space AI computing center. Ground-based large model expansion faces hard constraints like power shortages and cooling heat dissipation, while Starship's super heavy payload combined with space solar power and boundaryless radiation cooling provides a brand-new physical carrier for computing power.
However, whether the long-term goal can be achieved still depends in the short term on the commercialization and reuse of Starship and the real cash flow realization of Starlink.
Among reusable launches, Starlink communications, and space AI computing power, which do you think is most likely to support the valuation of a trillion-dollar empire?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 1. Event Breakdown 1. The probability of a 25bp rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September is 59.7%. Market interest rate pricing expectations have sharply shifted hawkishly; previously, the market generally expected a pause or rate cut, but now there is over a 50% chance of another hike. Impact: The US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, while interest-free assets like cryptocurrencies and gold come under pressure, representing the biggest macro headwind for the current market.
2. AVICI (a Solana ecosystem project) suspected hacker attack, loss of about $1.02 million. The attacker stole 10,000 SOL, exchanged it for stablecoins, then converted to ETH and laundered the funds through a mixing protocol; the AVICI token price simultaneously plummeted. Impact: Security risks in the Solana ecosystem are again under scrutiny, dragging down SOL sentiment in the short term. This is a black swan event for a small-to-medium project with limited impact on the overall market.
3. Abraxas Capital holds over $472 million in perpetual contract short positions. Abraxas is a well-known crypto quantitative whale, with short positions covering $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and other major coins. Interpretation: The institution is bearish on the market and betting on a decline; however, note that short positions do not mean immediate dumping. If the market rises, the whale may face liquidation, which could instead become a short-term upward driving force (a short squeeze).
4. OpenAI: After Cursor was acquired by SpaceX, cooperation was terminated. Cursor is a popular AI programming tool acquired by Elon Musk's SpaceX; OpenAI will officially stop supplying models on November 12, citing concerns that Musk's company might violate... I can't even remember how many times I've praised ETH in this market wave. Yesterday, $BTC $ETH ended nine consecutive days of inflows.
Of course, this is just a short-term cooling signal, not proof that long-term demand has disappeared. It could be a rotation between products or a risk rebalancing after macro speeches.
On the other hand, ETFs have continued to maintain inflows for the 10th trading day. Despite a slight 24h decline, ETF buying can naturally decouple from short-term price performance.
Moreover, whales and institutions have recently bought over $1B ETH, and exchange ETH reserves have dropped to about 14.93M ETH. This is a strong supply signal for ETH, indicating that some tokens may have entered long-term holding, staking, or custody.
Next, I will observe whether inflows continue on the 11th and 12th trading days, and whether the price can hold around 2,400 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 $O 这个币，我已经关注了很久了。 我个人认为，这是一个还算不错的加密货币。 但是，目前并不值得做多。 倘若它能够跌到$0.1 到$0.25 之间，我个人认为还是可以做多的。 目前的价格，我认为实在是有点太过于高了。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 我们可以发现，在$O 价格上涨的过程中，合约持仓量在逐步增长，合约的空比在逐步下降。 这就说明，在它价格上涨的过程中，是有很多资金进去做空的。 这也就意味着，市场目前并不太看好现在这个价格的$O 。 我们再看一下它长一点时间的数据。 我们可以发现，它的合约持仓量已经到达了一个新高，它的合约多空比也已经到了一个新低。 这就意味着，目前市场做空的力量还是相当强大的。 —————————————————— 综上所述，我认为这一轮上涨大概率是诱多。 现在它这个价格是比较高的，如果真的要去追高的话，我个人认为应该要相当谨慎，不然很有可能又要被挂在山顶上了。 那有朋友可能要问，这个时候要不要去做空呢？ 我认为是可以做空的，但是我自己并没有去做空，因为我目前主要在做空另外一个币——$HYPE 。 如果我没有做空$HYPE $BTC is trading near $77.6K after a sharp pullback, while $ETH and $SOL have also weakened. That doesn't look like capital rotating into a digital safe haven. It looks more like a broad reduction in risk exposure as markets reprice the possibility of tighter financial conditions following Jackson Hole. Treasury yields have risen, the dollar has strengthened, and rate-hike expectations have moved higher. The recent BTC-gold relationship is better explained by a shared macro theme than by Bitcoin Just saw this on-chain data, quite interesting. Four addresses have cumulatively withdrawn 675,000 $HYPE from Coinbase over the past few months, worth $53.92 million, and then staked all of it in Hyperliquid. This is not an operation retail investors can pull off.
A few points worth discussing:
First, this is not a one-time operation, but continuous accumulation. 350,000 tokens were withdrawn in May, over 1 million tokens combined from three addresses in June, and nearly 300,000 tokens again in August. The rhythm is consistent and the actions are uniform, most likely the same entity accumulating in batches. With $50 million locked up, short-term dumping is unlikely.
Second, what's even more interesting is the seller on the other side. On August 25, a Multicoin Capital-related address transferred 1.06 million HYPE (about $8.41 million) to Coinbase Prime. Even more astonishing, in the past 30 days, Multicoin has cumulatively transferred about $59.04 million worth of HYPE to Coinbase through eight addresses. On one hand, they are desperately accumulating and staking off-exchange, while on the other hand, they are aggressively depositing to the exchange—this open game of strategy is quite fascinating.
Third, HYPE just hit a new all-time high of $86.71, and today it has pulled back to around $80. About $1.2 billion worth of tokens will unlock today, so supply pressure is significant. But on the other hand, exchange reserves are shrinking and staking rates are rising, so potential selling pressure is narrowing.The trading volume of South Korea's top five CEXs surged 188% week-on-week last week, hitting a nearly 10-month high. However, when this news came out, BTC, ETH, and SOL all dropped more than 2% in 24 hours.
Trading volume skyrocketed, but prices went down. This doesn't quite look like "Koreans are entering to bottom buy," but more like intense turnover during a decline—some are selling, some are buying, and chips are changing hands in a very crowded area.
Upbit alone accounts for 59.61%, and the Korean market is originally retail investor-heavy. When prices rise, there's a kimchi premium; when they fall, it's easy to trigger a stampede. This week's volume increase didn't coincide with price strength; instead, mainstream coins are retreating.
So within this 188%, how much is panic selling and how much is bottom buying is unclear. I tend to treat it as a warning first: volume rising without price increase is more dangerous during a decline than during a rise.
Let's see next week. If prices continue to fall and trading volume keeps surging, that will be a real stampede. For now, don't rush to interpret this as a reversal signal. 🔥 The correlation between BTC and gold is getting stronger!
Since August began, the weakening of the US dollar combined with changes in debt and liquidity expectations has clearly driven funds back into gold and BTC.
Recently, gold once approached $4,700, and BTC surged to $81,000, showing a clear increase in synchronization between these two asset classes.
What’s even more noteworthy is that in the past few trading days, gold ETFs and BTC ETFs have collectively seen inflows of about $7 billion, indicating that market trading is no longer just about simple risk appetite.
At its core, the logic remains:
Liquidity is increasing, but the supply of scarce assets cannot expand in sync.
In the short term, BTC still faces volatility pressure at high levels, but as long as the US dollar and US debt issues continue to ferment, the main theme of BTC + gold is not over yet.
$BTC $XAU
#Bitcoin #Gold #ETF #Macro$SOL surged 46% in August, with ETFs attracting $1.22 billion in inflows over five days, as the SGP-002 proposal ignites the narrative of Solana's supply contraction.
This month, SOL rallied from $73 to a high of $110, ending a ten-day losing streak and marking its strongest monthly performance since March 2024. The US Solana ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive days, with Bitwise's BSOL surpassing $1 billion in assets, capturing nearly 80% of the entire market's funds.
SGP-002 passed with 67% support, doubling the annual deflation rate to 30%, and reducing SOL issuance by approximately 18.9 million tokens over the next six years. However, on the day the positive news was announced, SOL price fell, staking yields continued to decline, putting pressure on some validators' profitability. Whether a bull run can follow depends mainly on whether ecosystem fees can compensate for the validators' income shortfall. Crash Breakdown
$HUMA crashed today, down 25.84% in 24 hours, with a volatility amplitude reaching 30.05 percentage points, directly slamming the market.
Current price is $0.020410, with a trading volume of 1.21M USD, volume at least doubled compared to the same period, indicating significant capital movement.
The 24-hour high was $0.028210, the low was $0.019940, creating an operational space of 30.1 percentage points between the high and low.
Belonging to the RWA sector, this round of crash is not an isolated coin event; at least 3 coins in the same track moved synchronously, showing clear sector linkage effects.
First layer: selling pressure—profit-taking concentrated and exiting.
Second layer: smart money reduced positions by at least 38 percentage points in advance.
Third layer: retail investors panicked, causing a cascade of selling.
Observation point: check if large capital is absorbing during the decline; if trading volume shrinks to less than 30% of today's volume, then it is a real drop, not a shakeout.
My view: do not chase the abnormal movement; wait for absorption to finish and observe the structure; if the structure breaks, do not stubbornly hold on.
Data comes from public market interfaces, for informational purposes only, not constituting trading advice.
Having said that, the decision is in your hands. 💬 If you could only place one order tonight: would you go long to catch the bottom, or short to wait for a breakdown?
1️⃣ BTC once fell below $78,000, with a short-term focus on $76,500–77,000; liquidity is low over the weekend, and once support is lost, volatility can easily amplify.
2️⃣ US stocks are also under pressure, with the S&P 500 down about 0.25% and Nasdaq down about 0.52%; short-term bond yields are rising, and risk assets continue to digest hawkish rate expectations.
3️⃣ BTC spot ETF ended a 9-day streak of inflows, turning to a net outflow of about $202 million on 8/28; ETH funds, however, continue to flow in, showing clear divergence among institutions.
4️⃣ Whales are still betting long: publicly verifiable positions show a large holder has established about 8,000 ETH longs, worth around $20 million, at an average price of about $2,491.58.
Bulls see ETH inflows + whales catching the dip; bears are really focused on the Fed hawkishness + BTC ETF outflows.
📊 Market judgment: neutral, I am currently not chasing longs; BTC needs to hold $77,000 and reclaim $79,000–80,000 to turn strong, breaking below $76,500 means continuing to defend.
👀 Next focus: BTC $77,000 defense and attack, whether ETH whales add positions, and whether there will be concentrated liquidations over the weekend.
#BTC #ETH #Fed #ETF #CryptoChoosing the Right Assets in a Bull Market: Recognize the Right Bull to Make Money
Even in a bull market, the bull run of BTC and the bull run of DOGE are two completely different animals.
The market from 2024 to 2025 is called the "Institutional Bull." After the launch of spot ETFs, the main players entering the market are asset management companies, pension funds, and corporate treasuries of listed companies. These funds are huge but selective—they only recognize BTC, emphasizing compliance, liquidity, and certainty. As a result, BTC repeatedly hits new highs, while assets like DOGE, driven by sentiment and hype, lag behind throughout, and the broad rally that retail investors have been waiting for never materializes.
2021 was a different story. It was a typical "Retail Bull": liquidity was abundant, home trading was popular, social platforms rallied together to shout buy signals, and funds chased elasticity and stories, flocking wherever the excitement was. $DOGE surged hundreds of times in a year, leaving $BTC far behind and becoming the brightest star of that bull run.
Comparing these two bull markets, the pattern is clear: institutional money flows top-down only to the core assets with the strongest narratives; retail money flows bottom-up, creating a frenzy around fringe assets.
Therefore, for investors, judging the nature of the bull market is more important than judging the bull market itself. In an institutional bull, hold steady with mainstream assets and don’t expect small coins to catch up; only in a retail bull do all assets soar, but the tide also recedes quickly. Choosing the wrong type of bull market means you can still lose money despite the bull run.The market twisted again around $80K. $BTC briefly pushed above $81K before a hawkish Jackson Hole message triggered a sharp reversal, wiping out nearly $500M in leveraged positions. On the surface, it looks like a macro-driven selloff. But the blockchain tells a deeper story. 🟠 Institutions are still buying. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a powerful streak of inflows, attracting more than $2B during the recent rebound. Capital continues to enter the market despite rising volatility. 🔵 E$TRUMP coin, whoever chases it is foolish!
It dropped from 73 to 2, a 97% decline.
Public Citizen reported that investors lost a total of $4.7 billion.
Pretty tragic, right? Even worse, the project team is still selling.
Today they transferred another 1.5 million coins to exchanges, with 6.7 million coins left in the wallet.
A few days ago, it rose from 2.31 to 2.93, a 23% increase in two days, looks lively, right?
Korea Blockchain Week is about to start, and TRUMP will make an appearance there; exposure in the Asian market might bring new funds.
But the problem is—every pump is an opportunity for the team to dump.
You think it’s a bottom-fishing chance, but they see it as liquidity coming in.
This kind of coin is only good for watching the show, not for putting real money in.3 billion RWA, 200 million DeFi.
These numbers are ridiculously distorted.
Stellar chain tokenized assets reach 3 billion USD
Locked volume is only 213 million
A 15-fold difference.
RWA issuance is running much faster than on-chain usability.
I monitored this report all afternoon
Four products support most of it
Amundi and Spiko funds alone account for over 700 million
Ondo USDY 530 million
VuMe bonds 500 million.
But in the lending protocol Blend
The pool accepting RWA as collateral
Is only 2 million USD.
What does this mean?
Asset providers are desperately issuing
But no one is using it on-chain.
Big capital moves US Treasuries on-chain
Just for that settlement efficiency
Completely disconnected from DeFi gameplay.
I suspect this RWA narrative
Is just traditional institutions self-hyping
Retail investors simply can’t catch on.
When these funds start redeeming someday
Can on-chain liquidity hold up?
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Bitcoin's renewed correlation with gold matters less than the reason behind it. At $77,617, a 2.27% daily decline alongside similar weakness in ETH and deeper losses in SOL points to broad risk reduction, not a clean rotation into a digital safe haven.
Iran reopening a Hormuz lane may ease one immediate inflation concern, but WalshInflationRisk remains the more durable macro signal. I would treat Schwab's crypto expansion as structural progress, while keeping a cautious near-term bias until BTC begins to separate from the wider risk unwind.
Just my read, not advice.BTC surged to 81,270 USD at the start of the week (breaking 80,000 for the first time since May), triggering a leveraged long party; however, at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, Fed Chair Powell said, "Inflation fight is not over, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out," pushing the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to 60%. US Treasury yields jumped, and both gold and Bitcoin were sold off.
In the following 24 hours, about 488 million USD worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with nearly 100,000 traders wiped out. Long liquidations accounted for 75%. BTC was hammered back to 77,000–77,800, ETH fell below 2,500 to 2,430–2,450, and SOL dropped from 101 to 95–97.
Over the weekend, with US stock ETFs halted and liquidity thin, the risk of sharp spikes was high; 83,000 is the top chip zone, 76,500 is the last defense line for the bulls, and breaking below that points to 72,000–74,000. Although institutional spot ETFs have seen continuous inflows, the first outflow appeared on Friday, indicating a squeeze and harvest strategy. Don't mistake the weekend rebound for a reversal. BTC surged past 81,200 at the start of the week (first time above 80,000 since May), ETH broke 2,500, SOL broke 100; then at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Fed Chair Powell said "inflation fight is not over, more work to do," instantly pushing the market's September rate hike probability from 35% to 60%, 2-year US Treasury yields jumped, and risk assets collectively crashed.
About $470–490 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, nearly 97,000 people wiped out, long positions accounted for over 360 million (≈75%), BTC spiked down to 76,885, ETH broke 2,431, SOL/XRP/DOGE all dropped over 4%, largest single liquidation was Binance ETH/USDT at $11.66 million.
Although spot BTC ETFs have continuously flowed in to support the bottom, no institutions stepped in over the weekend market closure, leaving leveraged longs exposed. Now 80,000 is the ceiling, whether 77,000 holds depends on US Treasury moves. With US stock and options expirations next Monday, volatility will only get crazier. Don't be fooled by the rebound; spike downs and liquidations are the norm.BTC 刚到 81K 又缩回 80K 下方，像不像有人把蛋糕端到你面前又端走了？ 但我想先问一句：这真的是反转，还是只是涨多了之后，有人在偷偷换座位？ 先说我的看法——这不是趋势坏掉，更像是一次正常的获利了结。BTC 冲到 81K 之后回落到 79K 附近，这种节奏在牛市里太常见了，像是市场在深呼吸，而不是在逃跑。更值得留意的是，ETH 稳稳站在 2500 上方，相对强度明显比 BTC 还好看一点，这在大饼主导的行情里是个稀罕信号，说明资金开始愿意往老二身上多看一眼了。 ETF 那边的流入也没停，这等于给市场垫了一层软垫子，跌下去的时候没那么疼。 但别急着喊山寨季来了。我看了一圈，真正在涨的还是少数，LAB、KAITO、BEAT、SNDK 这些还是软趴趴的，像没睡醒一样。资金确实在动，但动得很挑食，只捡自己看得上的盘子去，还没有那种雨露均沾的普涨感。 我自己的理解是，现在市场交易的不是"牛不牛"，而是"谁先被看见"。BTC 负责稳住盘子，ETH 负责给信心，山寨只能靠自己的故事去抢钱。这种阶段，选错边的代价比踏空还大。 偏多的路径很清楚：ETF 持续吸金、ETH 补涨带动情绪、BTC #BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies key level battle
On Deribit, 81,700 BTC options are expiring, with a notional value of $6.44 billion, a put/call ratio of 0.83, leaning bullish. The maximum pain point is between $68,000-$70,000, far below the settlement price of $79,682. The strike prices with the most concentrated open interest are $75,000 and $80,000.
After briefly breaking above $81,000 on August 27, the price quickly fell back, erasing about $3,000 within hours. The direct trigger was the July PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The hot inflation data reignited concerns, abruptly halting the short squeeze rally towards $80,000.
The real impact of options expiry is not the settlement itself—62% of contracts will expire worthless. The price being stuck in the $75,000-$80,000 range over the past week was due to market makers buying and selling spot near key strike prices to hedge. After expiry, this "invisible magnet" is removed.
The new resistance level has moved up to $82,000. The $82,000 strike price accounts for 22% of open interest, currently the most concentrated position.
The most intense part of the short squeeze rally is over. The space above $80,000 requires a new narrative to sustain it—either a more dovish-than-expected signal from Powell at Jackson Hole, or continued large-scale inflows from ETFs. Without either, $80,000 is a short-term ceiling, not a new starting point.$SOL Another major event worth long-term attention has arrived.
Traditional financial giant Charles Schwab has announced that in the coming months, it will successively integrate SOL, AVAX, and $LINK into its own crypto trading channels.
Don't treat this as just a new listing on an ordinary exchange.
As a leading US stockbroker, Charles Schwab has previously launched direct trading functions for BTC and ETH. This time, the newly added coins will have trading access through the official website, mobile app, and the professional trading software thinkorswim, with a single transaction fee set at 0.75%.
The deeper signal behind this is far more important than short-term price fluctuations:
Crypto assets are gradually shedding the label of "niche speculative products in the crypto circle" and are becoming formal options on traditional broker asset allocation lists.
A few years ago, ordinary retail investors wanting to allocate assets like SOL could only think of opening accounts on crypto exchanges.
Now, investors can manage stocks, ETFs, and crypto assets together in the same brokerage account, significantly lowering the switching threshold.
You can also clearly see Wall Street's selection approach:
It did not launch a large batch of short-lived popular small coins at once but prioritized mature ecosystems and top projects with high institutional research attention like SOL, AVAX, and LINK, gradually expanding the pool of assets.
Rather than saying Wall Street is starting to wildly embrace crypto, it's more accurate to say institutions are carefully screening quality assets step by step, slowly absorbing market flow.[After the Jackson Hole speech, the market still lacks direction]
Last night's Jackson Hole speech felt like talking nonsense—saying almost nothing.
If you say he was hawkish, he admitted inflation is improving; if you say he was dovish, he refused to acknowledge the trend has changed.
Interest rates are now neither rising nor falling, and the market overall has no clear direction.
But BTC rose 23% in a week, and you still tell me the bear market isn't over—I really can't understand that.
A pullback is inevitable, but the possibility of falling back to the consolidation zone bottom at 57,700 is extremely low.
I analyzed historical cases where consolidation lasted over 60 days followed by a weekly increase of over 10%: in the following 365 days, the price never fell back to the original consolidation zone bottom.
The above is only my personal market analysis and trading thoughts, not any investment advice. Please manage your position size and risk according to your own situation. #Stripe consortium reportedly withdraws, PayPal plunges pre-market
The boss has something to say
The Stripe consortium withdrew from the PayPal acquisition talks, and the news caused PayPal to drop 17% pre-market at one point. The $53 billion deal fell through because they couldn't agree on the price.
What does this have to do with the crypto market?
PayPal is not an ordinary payment company. It has the PYUSD stablecoin and crypto payment infrastructure, making it one of the traditional payment giants most actively embracing crypto. Stripe acquired Bridge, which has stablecoin issuance and settlement capabilities. If the two merged, it would create a super platform combining traditional and crypto payments, and PYUSD's application scenarios would directly expand into Stripe's developer ecosystem.
Now the merger is off. Stripe will most likely continue on its own path, and PayPal will have to figure out how to develop its crypto payment business independently.
For the stablecoin market, this means the pace of consolidation will slow down. PYUSD aiming to catch up with USDC and USDT can no longer rely on external support. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market front, BTC is around 77,800, Ethereum around 2,430. After Powell's speech, no clear direction was given, interest rate hike expectations slightly warmed up, and short-term risk assets are under pressure. All long positions have been closed waiting for a pullback, no rush to bet on direction. SPCX base positions continue the pattern, will consider buying BTC and Ethereum after pullbacks.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.#BTCOptionsExpiryTest BTC's $80K test isn't just bulls versus bears. It's spot demand versus derivatives positioning. The rally included a huge short squeeze, but futures leverage has since cooled while ETFs added $1.92B. Now $6.44B of options expire with positioning clustered around $75K-$80K.
If BTC holds after expiry removes that distortion, the breakout looks healthier. If volatility returns once positions reset, we'll learn how much of $80K was genuine demand and how much was mechanics.**9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF MONEY FLOWING INTO ETFs — BUT NOT ALL OF IT. 👀
Last week, Bitcoin ETFs attracted **$1.92 billion**, while Ethereum ETFs recorded an additional **$697 million** — the strongest increase since October 2025. 🔥 However, a deeper look is needed: **IBIT and ETHA account for about 70–80% of daily inflows**, indicating that institutional capital remains concentrated in a few key products. BlackRock is playing a leading role. This is a positive signal, but not enough to confirm a broad institutional capital wave. The U.S. national debt has now surpassed $40 trillion, and the current debt ceiling stands at $41.1 trillion. Liquidity remains the key driver across markets. When capital flows into USD, risk assets struggle. When confidence shifts away from fiat, gold and crypto tend to benefit. That's why the recent rally in both gold and Bitcoin isn't surprising. What's more interesting is Ethereum. ⚡ ETH's beta remains higher than BTC's, meaning it has been reacting more aggressively to changes in market se