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$CORE has come up with a whole new narrative: decentralization is specifically meant to filter out short-term speculators.
As the market weakens and veteran players leave one after another, instead of reflecting on the problems, they package it as the system filtering out the true believers.
It's as if as long as you hold on, you will eventually reap the fruits of victory, and those who can't hold on are all labeled as speculators.
This logic is actually quite ridiculous when you think about it.
A truly reliable public chain attracts funds and users to stay actively through its products, ecosystem, and real data.
But CORE is exactly the opposite, grinding down day after day with a slow decline, gradually exhausting holders' patience, and when everyone can't bear it and cuts losses, it externally claims to have completed a round of shakeout.
$BTC steadily rises, and the bull market is clearly visible.
CORE still habitually admits defeat; the more the market rises, the more obvious its lag.
lstBTC, BTCFi, payment ecosystems, concepts are updated round after round, with each poster more exquisite than the last.
Looking through on-chain data, the tangible achievements to show are few and far between.
When it falls, they advise everyone to stay calm, saying time will provide the answer and suggest small daily additions to average down costs.
Time is indeed fair, but what many people are waiting for is not a rally, but a continuous release of tokens and the next carefully packaged new narrative.
Beautifying a long-term weak market as filtering believers is, after all, just a way to find a cover for their own powerlessness. 1. What exactly did he say (4 core points)
1. The 2% inflation target is non-negotiable
The 2% inflation target is fixed and unchanging. Although some recent inflation data has improved, it is not believed that inflation has shown a substantial downward trend.
Exact quote: If we cannot be sure that inflation is clearly and quickly returning to 2%, the Fed still has work to do (rate hikes remain an option).
2. The U.S. economy is very resilient, and the current interest rate environment is not very tight
Employment and consumption remain strong; current financial conditions have not sufficiently suppressed inflation, leaving room for further rate hikes.
3. Weaken forward guidance, no longer providing the market with a roadmap in advance
No longer hinting at future rate hikes or cuts ahead of time as before. Going forward, policy will fully depend on real-time economic data. The market should stop guessing the Fed and judge the economic fundamentals independently.
4. Brief mention of AI
AI will improve U.S. productivity. The Fed has established a special working group to track AI’s impact on inflation, corporate investment, and asset prices, but AI will not be directly used to formulate monetary policy.
Simple plain-language translation:
Inflation is not yet under control; further rate hikes are possible; no advance notice on hikes—everything depends on upcoming CPI and PCE data.
2. What happened in the markets after the speech
1. Interest rate futures (CME)
The probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% before the speech to nearly 60%, with the market starting to price in a possible 25 basis point hike in September.
2. U.S. Treasuries and the dollar
- The 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 10-11 basis points, hitting a one-month high;
- The U.S. dollar index strengthened, and the dollar appreciated.
Rising Treasury yields are negative for non-interest-bearing assets.
3. Gold and U.S. stocks
- Gold plunged nearly 3%;
- U.S. stocks surged then fell to close lower, with high-valuation tech stocks under pressure and pulling back.
4. Crypto market (BTC, STX, etc.)
- BTC plunged quickly from $81,400 to a low of $76,877;
- High-beta coins like STX, Ethereum, and meme coins fell much more than Bitcoin;
- Massive liquidations of long contracts across the network, with nearly $480 million liquidated in 24 hours;
- However, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still saw inflows, indicating a divergence between institutional spot and leveraged speculative funds.
3. What this means going forward
1. This speech has put the "September rate hike" sword back hanging overhead. Upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data becomes crucial:
- If inflation rebounds and rises again → the probability of a September hike continues to increase, and risk assets remain under pressure;
- If inflation clearly falls → rate hike expectations cool down, and crypto and stock markets will likely recover.
2. The next major event: September 17 at 2 a.m. — FOMC official rate decision and dot plot, which will provide the actual rate outcome.
3. Waller has made it clear: no preset path, everything depends on data, so every U.S. inflation data release will trigger major market volatility.
4. Summary in one sentence
This was a hawkish speech; no rate hike now, but the door to hikes is wide open. The market has started repricing higher rates, and all risk assets (stocks, gold, Bitcoin, STX) have been sold off.#Wash Hawkishness Disrupts Rate Cut Script, September Suspense Left to Data to Decide
Wash left no room for the market this time. Inflation is falling too slowly, employment remains tight, and the financial environment is not yet tight enough to reassure the Federal Reserve—implying one thing: policy rates need to stay elevated for a while longer. What the market fears most is not a rate hike, but "uncertainty," and Wash has precisely turned September into an open-ended outcome. As soon as the speech ended, interest rate futures immediately adjusted positions, with the probability of a September rate hike jumping from 35% to 58%, the two-year Treasury yield rising above 4.35%, the three major U.S. stock indexes all turning red, gold pressured below key moving averages, and BTC also taking a hit.
Wash's speech direction is very clear: hawkish but not yet at a full bearish turn. This is not a trend reversal but a correction of macro pricing factors—the timing of rate cuts is pushed back, the duration of high rates is extended, and all risk asset valuation models must adjust accordingly. Especially for assets like BTC, which are highly sensitive to liquidity expectations, short-term volatility expansion is inevitable. But don't get the direction wrong: the most important thing now is not to guess whether there will be a hike in September, but to see if the market can stabilize at key levels after digesting this wave of hawkish sentiment.
In terms of operations, now is not the window to bottom-fish, nor the time for blind sell-offs. Wait for clear signals of a stop in the decline—such as a long lower shadow with volume on the hourly chart, or a low-volume sideways consolidation without new lows—before discussing the next step. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm has; don't fight the market, wait for it to finish this wave first. $BTC $ETH $SOLUS Stock Market Analysis: One Statement from Walsh Shakes Up Stocks, Bonds, and Forex
Walsh made his debut at Jackson Hole, firmly defending the 2% inflation target, delivering a sudden shift in market expectations.
On Friday, the three major US stock indices closed lower under pressure. The Nasdaq gave back some of the previous day's gains driven by Nvidia's earnings report, ending down 0.52%; the S&P 500 fell 0.27%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearly flat. The market quickly repriced the probability of a September rate hike from about 35% to around 60%, becoming the core logic driving various asset classes.
From asset performance perspective, Walsh's hawkish stance disrupted the original rhythm:
Stock market structure divergence: AI computing power stocks were hit hardest, with Nvidia plunging 4.57%, Marvell Technology dropping over 10%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 2.69%.
However, funds did not exit but flowed into software and cloud service sectors. Amazon rose nearly 4%, Salesforce, Microsoft, Google, and others all rose more than 1.5% against the trend, showing that under rising interest rate expectations, capital is shifting from overvalued hardware to more resilient software.
Bond market reacted sharply: The 2-year US Treasury yield, most sensitive to policy, surged 11 basis points in one day to 4.34%, hitting a one-month high. The 10-year long bond yield remained around 4.72%, flattening the curve, reflecting a decline in market risk of long-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored. $XAU $MU $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 Asian version of MicroStrategy Metaplanet,
suddenly moved over 3,000 BTC into Coinbase Prime, worth $237 million.
Is this preparing to dump?
My guess is, it’s more like playing a valuation trick for shareholders.
Think about it, a company like Metaplanet relies on continuously buying BTC, tying its stock price to the BTC it holds.
When the market is good, of course it’s great; everyone thinks it’s a BTC-buying machine.
But once the market cools down, just shouting "buy only, no sell" doesn’t work anymore.
Money locked in BTC, stock price lacks liquidity, financial statements don’t look good.
So at this time, taking some BTC out for asset allocation is actually normal.
You can lock in profits, hedge, or use it as collateral for financing.
They want to tell the market:
"I’m not just blindly buying BTC, I also know how to manage money."
Especially transferring such a large amount of BTC into Coinbase Prime, an institutional custody system,
I’m more inclined to understand it as preparing to put these assets to work.
Whether lending, hedging, or using BTC as collateral to gain liquidity, it’s definitely not just sitting idle.
Now with yen financing costs changing and market liquidity not as loose as before,
holding so much BTC tightly is less effective than turning it into assets that can leverage more money.
This is the real playbook for listed companies dealing with BTC.
What we see on-chain is:
Over 3,000 BTC moved.Krugman: What Wash "didn't say" is more important than what he "did say"
We have a normal Fed chair. Krugman believes that Wash's failure to hint at rate cuts, omission of balance sheet reduction, and abandonment of alternative inflation indicators demonstrate a traditional hawkish stance that does not cater to political pressure. The biggest contradiction lies in that Wash emphasizes the short-term interest rate as the core tool and opposes unconventional policies, while the Treasury's Bassett simultaneously advances a long-term bond purchase program that essentially amounts to quantitative easing.Bitcoin needs attention recently
ETF funds have started to show net outflows
$BTC has risen from around 60,000 to 80,000 USD in this round, and one of the biggest supports before was the continuous inflow of money into the US spot Bitcoin ETF.
But the latest data has started to change.
On August 28, the US spot BTC ETF had a single-day net outflow of about 202 million USD, directly ending the previous 9 consecutive trading days with a cumulative net inflow of over 3 billion USD.
Among them, ARK's ARKB outflowed about 115 million USD, Bitwise's BITB outflowed about 49.7 million USD, and even BlackRock's IBIT outflowed about 33.4 million USD.
So recently, I will be a bit cautious about BTC.
A single-day outflow certainly cannot directly represent a trend reversal, after all, the overall net inflow in the past 5 trading days is still about 925 million USD, and the cumulative funds in August are also positive.
What really needs attention is whether there will be continuous net outflows next.
If it's just one day, I tend to think it's profit-taking; if funds keep withdrawing for several consecutive days and BTC can't get back to 80,000 USD, then the short-term correction may not be over yet.
$BTC On the eve of the earnings report, $AVGO's market remains in a tense balance, with expectations for increased volume of custom chips from major manufacturers and profit-taking impulses from high-level funds continuously tugging during trading.
NVIDIA's latest quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, raising the performance benchmark for the entire AI hardware sector while compressing the market's margin for error on subsequent earnings reports to the extreme.
The repeated shifts in macro inflation expectations are quietly tightening risk appetite, institutional positions are increasingly diverging within the hardware supply chain, and capital's pursuit of pure computing power premiums is beginning to shift toward ASICs and network connectivity capabilities.
Whether the current high valuation can be maintained depends on whether the actual delivery pace of ASICs disclosed in next week's earnings report can smoothly absorb the liquidity discount caused by crowded positions.
If the earnings guidance clearly indicates year-over-year growth in ASIC and network business exceeding expectations, capital will naturally flow to the core segments of the supply chain; if the guidance lacks evidence of acceleration in computing power networks, the upward momentum will be declared invalid.
If the guidance shows a slowdown in the fulfillment pace of major customer orders or delayed delivery times, concentrated withdrawal of high-beta funds will trigger a chip squeeze, breaking key technical supports and amplifying turnover.
If the macro liquidity environment further deteriorates, even if business data meets expectations, it may be repriced by position rebalancing forces.
The variable to track most closely over the next 7 days is the actual delivery schedule of ASIC orders provided in the earnings guidance.
#财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估$BTC is hovering around 78,000, taking a nap again; the dream of 80,000 was halfway there before being abruptly woken by Powell's shout.
Current price 78,070, high 78,328, low 77,382, with a fluctuation of less than a thousand dollars. On Thursday at Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Powell said, "Inflation hasn't returned to 2%, no talk of easing," and $BTC plunged straight to 76,871; on Friday it recovered slightly, pretending to be dead around 78,000. The top three trending topics on OKX all revolve around the same event: the hawkish debut.
Three details on the market:
First, ETF inflows have stopped. After nine consecutive days of attracting 3 billion, Friday saw a net outflow of 200 million in a single day, with ARKB alone redeeming 115 million—institutions are waiting, not fleeing.
Second, leverage hasn't returned. After the short squeeze, futures open interest remains at a 5-month low, liquidation volume plummeted 94%, both longs and shorts are hoarding bullets.
Third, 6.4 billion in options just expired, volatility has been completely drained, the weekend will be a vacuum period.
Below 76,800-77,000, a break points to 72,000; above, first break 79,500, then test 80,300. On 9/9, US Treasury repo doubled and landed; 9/16 is the FOMC prelude.
In short: 80,000 is not the peak, just halfway up the mountain. Hold your spot in spot markets, leave the rest to time—contracts? Don't touch them.
#BTC trading volume shrinks, can ETF buying rebound
#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens $BTC fell below 80,000
But this time I'm actually more focused on
whether it can quickly recover
After Jackson Hole, BTC once dropped to around 77,500 USD, and has now returned to about 78,000 USD. The market is mainly digesting the Fed's hawkish stance and the short-term cooling of risk assets.
What’s more notable is that the previously continuous inflows into BTC ETFs have started to show a net outflow of about 200 million USD in a single day.
But I think we can't just be bearish because it fell below 80,000.
BTC has rebounded over 20% from the lows this round, with a large number of shorts liquidated earlier. Now a normal pullback can actually test the real spot support.
The most important thing next is whether 80,000 USD can be quickly reclaimed.
If it stands back above, I’d rather interpret this drop as a high-level shakeout, and still expect to see 83,000 to 84,000 later.
$BTC #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 ETH is starting to outperform BTC
Is the super altcoin season coming?
Recently, $BTC has been fluctuating around $80,000
but $ETH's capital inflow is getting stronger and stronger
The latest data shows that the US ETH spot ETF has had net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.42 billion. Meanwhile, on the latest trading day, while the BTC ETF saw net outflows, the ETH ETF still recorded net inflows.
The price trend is also very clear
ETH has rallied from the August low to around $2,500, with a single week rising over 30%, making it one of the strongest weeks since May 2025.
I think this change is more important than just how much ETH has risen.
When BTC was correcting, ETH did not weaken accordingly; instead, capital continued to flow in, which is a signal that funds are starting to diversify.
If BTC stabilizes again at $80,000, I believe the next phase of real resilience may begin to shift from BTC to ETH, and then gradually spread to altcoins.
$ETH 9月29日这天，BTC收盘77594美元，单日回撤3.3%，但真正让我留意的，不是这根阴线本身，而是它背后那股"钱在悄悄换座位"的动静。 你有没有想过，当所有人都盯着同一个故事的时候，市场其实已经在为下一个故事定价了？ 先看一组冷数据：DOGE在8月29日跌到0.08442美元，两天内吃掉约5.3%的涨幅，上周追进去的浮盈几乎被清零。TRUMP更惨，从75美元的高点一路滑到3美元，累计跌掉97%，新币传闻被否认后，连最后那点叙事热度也凉了。 这些现象串在一起，指向同一个信号：风险偏好在收缩，而且收缩得很有层次。 DOGE的回落不是孤立事件，它代表meme板块的集体退潮。前期靠情绪撑起来的涨幅，现在正被获利盘一点点抽走。技术结构还没破位，价格在高位横住、量能也没完全枯竭，说明还有资金愿意接，但接盘的力度明显不如上周。这种状态最磨人——不是直接崩，而是让你在"还有机会"和"该走了"之间反复摇摆。 TRUMP的情况更值得玩味。跌97%不稀奇，meme币本来就是这样，稀奇的是它连反弹的欲望都没有。这说明什么？说明市场对"政治叙事"这个题材的定价已经彻底失效了。当故事本身不再能吸引新钱进场，剩下🚨 $BTC $ETH ETF funds are back, but don't rush to call a bull return!
This week, crypto ETFs attracted over $2.6 billion, about $1.92 billion for BTC and about $697 million for ETH, showing an apparent warming of institutional funds.
But what really matters is not "how much money flowed in," but whether this money can continuously absorb the market's sell-off.
Continuous inflows into BTC indicate that institutional allocation demand remains, and the obvious rebound in ETH funds suggests that capital is starting to spread from a single leader to mainstream assets.
However, if next we see: ETFs continue to flow in, but BTC can't rise and even breaks key support, then beware that "fund inflows ≠ immediate price increase." Because ETF buying might be absorbing profit-taking and trapped positions.
Conversely, if funds keep flowing in, BTC breaks resistance with volume, and ETH strengthens again, that looks more like a genuine trend recovery.
So now, don't just focus on ETF numbers.
Look at fund flows, but more importantly, watch how prices respond to the funds.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 The American Bankers Association takes a hard stance against the Clarity Act, fiercely opposing the loophole in stablecoin rewards.
ICBA, representing thousands of community banks, firmly states: there is no compromise option.
The core conflict: banks view the rewards given to stablecoin users by platforms as disguised deposit interest, which would siphon off trillions in bank deposits; the crypto side argues it is merely platform usage incentives.
The bill attempts to distinguish between "holding coins to earn interest" and "transaction usage rewards," leaving room for negotiation.
On the surface, it's about regulation, but in reality, it's a battle for the trillion-dollar digital dollar market, with stablecoins already threatening traditional banks' turf.
$BTC $ETH #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $BTC briefly surged to around $81,300 a few days ago but quickly took profits and is now fluctuating back within the $78,000–$79,000 range. Meanwhile, $ETH is still consolidating around the $2,450–$2,550 range, with the market turning more attention to highly elastic assets like $SOL and $XRP. BTC's recent rally followed by a rapid pullback also indicates that selling pressure remains above. 🔥 There have indeed been notable changes in the capital flow. Recently, spot ETF funds have continued to flow into the market, with BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP all seeing simultaneous inflows. Data from August 27 shows BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $242 million, ETH about $235 million, SOL about $60.9 million, and XRP about $18.5 million. This indicates that institutional funds are no longer focusing solely on BTC but are beginning to expand their allocation to other mainstream assets. But here's a key issue: Capital inflows ≠ The altcoin season has officially begun. A real altcoin market requires BTC to stabilize, ETH/BTC to strengthen, and funds continuously spreading from large-cap assets to small- and mid-cap tokens. If BTC is only trading sideways while a few popular coins suddenly surge, the market is likely creating short-term hotspots. 📊 What needs to be watched now is: 🔹 can BTC regain its hold at $80,000 🔹 ETH, can it break through $2,600 🔹 SOL, and hold the $The A-share market has been really sluggish for nearly a month, hovering around 3100 points for almost a month, with trading volume decreasing day by day.
The sectors rotate like a fan, photovoltaic yesterday, pharmaceuticals today; whichever you chase, you get stuck.
This feeling is so familiar, exactly like watching the daily chart of $ETH, neither rising nor falling decisively.
After spending a long time in the stock market, you understand that in this kind of market, the worst thing is to be impulsive—buy and it drops, sell and it rises.
In August, I tried the A-share trick of "buying on low volume at the close and selling on high volume in the morning" on $ETH, and actually caught a few good moves.
But you must never be greedy; once I earned 3% and didn’t exit, the next day it gave it all back, no different from the big A market’s reset button.
Actually, the main players rely on sideways trading to wear down your patience, waiting for you to give up and cut losses, then they pull the price up.
In the past month, funds on both sides have been cautious; when the US stock market sneezes, the whole world has to take medicine.
Now I watch the A-share rise-fall ratio during the day and glance at $SOL futures longs and shorts at night, each reminding the other.
As long as there’s no volume breakout, I just treat it like a game, make some pocket money, and run, never getting hooked.
This experience is all hard-earned real money lost in the stock market, which saves my life in the crypto world as well.
Remember, surviving long in a choppy market is more important than making a lot of money.The current core conflict in the $AVGO market lies in the valuation reshaping driven by major companies' self-developed chips and AI network demand, versus the risk of profit-taking by funds under extremely low tolerance before earnings reports.
NVIDIA's latest quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year, raising the performance bar for the entire AI hardware sector, thereby lowering the market's tolerance for other hardware stocks missing expectations before earnings. The pricing logic of funds for the hardware supply chain before earnings windows is shifting from pure computing power explosion to a dual-driven capability of ASIC custom chips and AI network equipment.
From the perspective of event risk transmission, the concentration of institutional positions before earnings release determines the sensitivity of short-term risk appetite. If the order pace of major clients' self-developed chips and network equipment shipments continue to be validated, funds will naturally flow from high-valuation pure computing power stocks to the ASIC supply chain; if earnings guidance is somewhat flat, risk-averse profit-taking at high levels will trigger a chip squeeze.
The bullish scenario trigger is that next week's earnings guidance clearly shows ASIC business and network chips exceeding expected year-over-year growth. Variables to watch include the progress of major companies' self-developed TPU projects and gross margin performance. The invalidation signal for this scenario is if earnings guidance fails to provide evidence of continued acceleration in computing network business.
The bearish scenario trigger is a slowdown in ASIC order fulfillment pace or supply chain delivery delays in earnings guidance. Variables to watch include the outflow speed of high-beta funds and the order squeeze effect from competitor $MRVL. If short-term selling pressure breaks key support and turnover rate abnormally expands, the bearish scenario is confirmed.
If macro risk appetite tightens due to repeated inflation expectations, it will directly suppress the willingness to hold high-valuation tech stocks, causing the sector to face overall liquidity discounts.
The most critical variables to observe in the next 7 days are the actual delivery schedule of ASIC orders in earnings guidance and the post-earnings rebalancing direction of institutional positions between major tech stocks and network chip stocks.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款I've seen prime ministers meet entrepreneurs, but never seen one immediately invest $31 billion after the meeting.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi personally met with the president of Kioxia, and on August 27, Kioxia and SanDisk jointly announced: $31 billion will be invested in Japan over 6 years, provided the government offers subsidies. The most aggressive move is building Fab3 in Kitakami, Iwate Prefecture, with a single factory investment of $11.3 billion, dedicated to producing 3D-NAND for AI servers. The factory in Yokkaichi is also being upgraded.
Sanae Takaichi said, "Very exciting, the government warmly welcomes this," which basically means the country is betting on AI storage.
Why such a huge investment? AI servers consume massive storage; large model training and inference require enormous amounts of NAND. Interestingly, Fab3 will take at least two to three years from construction to mass production, so short-term supply won't increase significantly while demand continues to explode. Can storage chip prices remain firm in the short term?
Some worry about oversupply after capacity release, but reportedly Kioxia has already locked in long-term orders through 2028, securing buyers before building factories, which is very stable.
Doing the math: in the past 25 years, the two companies have only invested 50 billion yen in Japan; this time, $31 billion over 6 years is 60% of the past 25 years' total. SanDisk is paying half, with capital expenditures in fiscal 2027 accounting for about 6% of revenue.
In the short term, storage prices and the sector have support; AI demand is no joke. But in the long term, capacity must be monitored carefully—storage is a brutal cyclical business, and the last expansion oversupply is still fresh. This move is clearly targeting Samsung and SK Hynix; the NAND three-way battle promises an exciting show #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 As of noon Beijing time on August 30, BTC had returned to around $78,100, ETH around $2,457, and SOL had climbed back above $105. The market looked a bit more comfortable than yesterday, but whether this round of rebound could be considered stabilization is still too early to conclude. BTC surged to around $81,500 a few days ago, but was then directly repelled by Walsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole. Market expectations for a rate hike in September quickly rose to around 60%, with both the dollar and short-term US Treasury yields strengthening, so BTC naturally took the first hit. What's more troublesome is that US spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $202 million on August 28, ending a nine-day inflow streak. However, over $3 billion has already flowed in the previous nine days, and the entire month of August was still net inflows, so this outflow is temporarily more like profit-taking, and institutions are not collectively fleeing. The biggest drawback of today's rebound was that it happened over the weekend. With ETFs closed, trading depth thinned, and a bit of buying could push prices up. The truly useful confirmation will come after the US stock market opens on Monday: whether ETF funds continue to flow out, and whether Treasury yields will continue to rise. These two signals are much more important than a single bullish candlestick over the weekend. BTC is currently looking at $77,300–$76,800. If there is continued support in this area, it can still fluctuate and recover between $77,000–$80,000 in the short term; Only after breaking above $80,000 will there be a chance to touch $81,500 again. If $76,800 falls below again, then 75,900 will be belowTRUMP:
Only when Trump himself specifically posts about this token is there a high probability of drastic market movements; ordinary diplomatic news does not necessarily move the coin.
Ordinary diplomatic and political news such as signing oil agreements with foreign countries, space academy, Russia-Ukraine, and Iran sanctions will only boost Trump's overall popularity but will not directly drive the TRUMP token, at most it will follow the general market meme sector trends. Often, the news is lively, but the coin remains completely still.
Therefore, do not use ordinary political news as a basis for opening positions; only consider Trump's own direct statements about crypto/TRUMP token as the core signal. The most critical variable for the market next week is the U.S. August nonfarm payroll report released on Friday.
With the September Federal Reserve meeting approaching, this report will directly affect rate cut expectations and also influence the sentiment of the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk assets.
The market currently is not short of news but lacks confirmation on the direction of liquidity. A few days ago, the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on gold and silver, and the crypto space also finds it hard to stay completely unaffected. Whether BTC can hold steady and whether altcoins have sustainability depends on whether macro funds are willing to continue taking risks.
If the nonfarm and wage data are strong, the market will worry that rate cuts will be pushed further back. If the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise simultaneously, high-valuation assets are likely to be sold off first, so don’t just focus on short-term price rallies in crypto.
If employment cools significantly, rate cut expectations will heat up, potentially boosting risk assets initially. But if the data is too weak, concerns about economic slowdown will return, and the market may rally briefly before diverging.
Tuesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTs job openings, Wednesday’s ADP employment data, and Thursday’s Fed Beige Book will also influence trading expectations in advance.
My view is that next week is better suited for less forecasting and more observation. After the nonfarm report is out, first watch the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and the stock market’s opening reaction before judging whether BTC’s movement has quality.
The first candlestick after macro data releases is often misleading; the choices of funds afterward are more valuable for reference. $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)If I were to rank the core AI stocks right now, this is how I would rank them (personal investment priority)
1. $AVGO ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Benefiting from both ASIC and AI networks, the more the big companies develop their own chips, the more Broadcom benefits. Next week's earnings report is another direct catalyst; it's what I'm most looking forward to now.
2. $GOOGL ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Search drives profits, Cloud drives growth, Gemini grabs the AI entry point, and TPU can handle computing power independently. The logic is the most complete, and compared to other AI leaders, I think its valuation still has room for reappraisal.
3. $NVDA ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The fundamentals are still the strongest, with the latest quarter's revenue at $96.2 billion, doubling year-over-year. But the biggest problem now isn't poor performance; it's that the market expects it to outperform every time.
4. $MRVL ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Google's potential big order opens up imagination; ASIC has great flexibility, but the actual order fulfillment will take time, so certainty is currently less than the top three.
Broadcom is betting on ASIC expansion, Google is betting on AI revaluation, and Nvidia is taking the most certain computing power demand. In the past month, the A-share market has shrunk in volume like a stagnant pool, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering around 3150 points for a full three weeks.
Sector rotation is ridiculously fast; yesterday semiconductors led the gains, today they can fall back to the starting point, reaching out only to get hit.
This scene reminds me of watching the $BTC market, also moving sideways with an amplitude of less than 5%, which is frustrating.
Experienced stock traders know that during low-volume consolidation periods, frequent trading is the worst, as fees can eat up your small profits.
In August, I compared the A-share tactic of "lowest volume indicates lowest price" to $BTC and found that volume shrinking to previous lows does indeed lead to a small rebound.
But the rebound is very weak; you have to take your profits quickly, like making just enough for a meal, similar to ultra-short-term trading in A-shares.
Don’t listen to the "this time is different" talk; with global liquidity tightening, when the US stock market shudders, both sides have to shake.
My current strategy: watch the northbound capital flow in A-shares during the day, and glance at $BTC futures at night.
Long-short ratio.
If both sides shrink in volume, hold your hands; wait for a volume breakout before making a move. This experience comes entirely from losses in the stock market.
Remember, in a choppy market, not losing is earning, which is a hundred times better than staying up late watching candlesticks.#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
Traditional giant Charles Schwab bringing SOL, AVAX, and LINK to the trading desk—is it endorsing cryptocurrencies or simply seeking new revenue streams?
As a giant managing over $13 trillion in assets with nearly 40 million accounts, Schwab, after opening $BTC and $ETH spot trading in May, is now preparing to expand trading to these three tokens.
But from another perspective, this is actually a defensive move.
Schwab charges a 0.75% fee per trade, realistically priced compared to E*TRADE's 0.5% and Fidelity's 1%. They are not driven by decentralized ideals but aim to prevent high-net-worth clients from moving their allocations in public chains and oracle assets to other platforms.
The token selection also reveals clues: they did not choose purely sentiment-driven air coins but selected high-performance public chain SOL, enterprise-grade AVAX, and data infrastructure LINK. This shows that in traditional institutional compliance logic, assets entering the allocation system must have real applications and clear positioning.
Next, some predictions:
▶️ Channel building is a long-term project.
Although the news caused a short-term spike in tokens, the groundwork is about gradually releasing liquidity and will not trigger a sudden massive bull market overnight.
▶️ Broker follow-up trend accelerates.
This move will force competitors to expand their token offerings.
▶️ Institutional channels will further squeeze the premium space of traditional compliant exchanges, lowering capital thresholds.
The boundary between traditional finance and the crypto world is rapidly blurring. Which broker do you think will loosen restrictions next?
DYOR BTC
I’m starting to think that $80,000 isn’t a true breakout for BTC — it may be more of a stress test.
Over the past nine trading sessions, BTC ETFs attracted more than $3 billion, helping drive Bitcoin from above $60,000 toward $80,000. But yesterday marked the first net ETF outflow, totaling around $202 million, and BTC quickly pulled back toward $77,000.
The bigger concern is the macro backdrop.
#WalshInflationRisk
#BTCGoldCorrelation
#SpaceXRevenueBy2033 I discovered a very interesting phenomenon: the trades that made money are often the reasons for big losses later on.
The first time I played with $DOGE, I chased the rise; it went up 30% right after I entered, and I earned half a month's salary in two days.
Since then, I developed a habit of chasing sharp rises, thinking it was a shortcut to getting rich.
But afterwards, I chased three times in a row, got trapped at the peak twice, and only escaped once by cutting losses.
Later I realized that the profit that time was purely luck, having nothing to do with my operation.
But my brain remembered the wrong signal "chasing the rise = making money," which caused me to lose several times later.
The reverse is also true. Once I held a losing position for half a month and stubbornly turned the floating loss into a profit.
Since then, I developed the bad habit of holding on stubbornly, thinking that as long as I hold, it will come back.
But then $AVAX dropped 40%, I held for a month, and the loss just deepened the longer I held.
In the end, I couldn’t hold anymore and cut losses, losing several times more than if I had stopped out earlier.
That profit was also luck because it happened to coincide with a big rebound, not because I was so good at holding on stubbornly.
Now, for every trade I make, I ask myself: is this operation based on logic or habit?
If the answer is "I made money like this last time," I firmly won’t do it, because it’s probably a trap.
The market is always changing; the method that made money last time might be a death sentence this time.
The only constant is that you have to change with the market; you can’t cling to one fixed method forever.
Now I review my trades every three months to see which operations are still useful and which should be discarded.
I decisively discard what should be discarded, even if it once helped me make big money, I don’t cling to it.
It’s like dating: no matter how wonderful the ex was, it’s in the past; don’t always apply old experiences to new market conditions.The $CORE core project team secretly transferred nearly 100 million core from locked tokens again, some of which have already flowed to exchangers. The excess circulating supply counted by OKX is this amount. The wallet with the chain address ending in 581 is the laundering wallet. It's either a statistical error or the project team has started selling again.The A-share market has been shaking people up for nearly a month, with volume shrinking day by day, and all the hot spots are just one-day wonders.
If you chase in, you get stuck; if you cut losses, it rises—it's a classic retail investor trap.
This feeling is so familiar, exactly like watching the $DOGE trend: once news breaks, there's a spike, then a slow decline.
After spending a long time in the stock market, you understand that in this kind of low-volume market, the worst thing is to get excited; once you do, you're bound to be stuck on the sidelines.
In August, I tried the A-share trick of "buying at the close, selling at the open" on $DOGE, and it was indeed better than holding on stubbornly.
But don't be greedy; once I made a profit and didn't exit, the next day it plunged straight down, no different from the big A-share nuclear button.
Actually, the main players' tactics are always the same: they use sideways trading to wear down your patience, and when you can't stand it, they do the opposite.
In the past month, whether stocks or crypto, liquidity has been tight; don't expect independent rallies.
Now I watch the number of A-share limit-ups during the day and $DOGE open interest at night, reminding each other of risks.
As long as there’s no volume breakout, I treat it
like a game, take small profits and run, never get obsessed.
This trick was learned from the A-share halving market, and it works just as well in crypto to stay alive.
Remember, in a choppy market, staying alive is more important than anything else. Service sector inflation stubbornness + tight labor market + AI pushing up capital goods prices, three variables simultaneously point to rate hikes, so why hasn't BTC directly crashed back to 70,000?
The core logic is simple: the pricing power of this round of the crypto market has long been out of retail leverage hands.
In the past 8 trading days, BlackRock's single BTC ETF alone absorbed $2.6 billion in net inflows, and the support around 75K is all long-term institutional funds; meanwhile, nearly 60% of BTC spot in the entire market has not had on-chain transfers for 12 months, and the selling pressure from long-term holders has long been mostly digested.
The three rate hike-driven bearish signals have been clearly played out, yet $BTC only dropped 3,000 points. Essentially, institutions simply did not provide liquidity for shorts to break below 70,000. The current market is not about "rate hikes crashing BTC," but rather a tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the 75K-78K range, fiercely competing for the pricing power of the last rate hike in September.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
$ETH $SOL Bitcoin's upward momentum is weakening; can it still rise next?
From the perspective of upward momentum, Bitcoin's recent surge is the result of multiple factors resonating together: "ETF funds flowing back + improved macro liquidity expectations + short squeeze + technical breakout."
However, now these upward drivers are gradually weakening.
Wash's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting raised the probability of a September rate hike from about 35% to around 60%, significantly cooling market expectations for subsequent liquidity improvements.
Bitcoin spot ETFs had net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, but after August 19 and 20, the daily net inflow scale gradually declined, and on August 28, there was a net outflow of about $202 million, ending the continuous net inflows.
This means the marginal buying from ETF funds is weakening and has even started to turn into net outflows.
At the same time, the short squeeze formed during the surge from August 19 to 21 has clearly weakened, and the upward momentum driven by the short squeeze is also declining.
Overall, the momentum driving Bitcoin's continued rise is clearly weakening.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown multiple negative signals:
From the volume-price relationship:
After experiencing continuous volume-price divergence, yesterday's decline volume already exceeded the rising volume on August 27 and 28, indicating increasing selling pressure.
From the capital flow perspective:
Bitcoin spot funds have had net outflows for three consecutive days, increasing daily, and yesterday further increased to $205 million, indicating growing short-term profit-taking pressure.
From the RSI perspective:
Bitcoin's daily RSI has shown two consecutive slight bearish divergences; although the signal is not strong, it also indicates weakening upward momentum.
In summary:
Upward momentum is weakening, and multiple negative signals have appeared in volume-price, capital flow, and RSI.
Therefore, I believe Bitcoin's subsequent upside potential is quite limited, and the probability of a subsequent decline is increasing.
Of course, this does not mean I think Bitcoin will fall immediately; in fact, I believe Bitcoin may still test the 82,850 resistance level, but the probability of an effective breakout is further reduced.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!Today, I took a small position shorting HYPE and ZEC, which are the current "star meme coins" in the market. They have surged dramatically, but the risks have quietly maxed out.
$HYPE
Riding on the exchange cash flow narrative, it skyrocketed. Even after unlocking a large amount of tokens for sale, it stubbornly held without dropping, washing out many shorts. #WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto Behind Nvidia's earnings report, the underlying logic that most people didn't understand
Let me say something that many people haven't considered.
This time when Nvidia's earnings came out, the market finally didn't follow the old script.
Before, no matter how explosive the performance was, once the earnings were released, the stock price would first drop.
This happened four times in a row.
But this time was different. Tom Lee said this curse was finally broken.
On the day the earnings came out, Nvidia surged nearly 9%.
You think this means a bull market?
Think again.
The next day, it gave back more than half, and the $250 billion market cap was almost gone.
So this is actually quite interesting.
On the surface, it's about stock price fluctuations.
But digging deeper, you'll find that the market's logic for viewing Nvidia is no longer the same as before.
My conclusion:
That short-term surge was mostly due to pent-up emotions.
What really determines whether Nvidia can continue to rise depends on three things:
capacity, policy, and whether the market is still willing to keep investing in the AI story.
Let's start with the first.
Many people think Nvidia's biggest problem now is that its valuation is too high.
But that's not necessarily true.
Its current dynamic P/E ratio is about 18 times, which basically means:
profits are growing faster than the stock price.
The stock price looks like it has risen a lot, but Wall Street keeps raising earnings expectations, and raising them even more aggressively.
As a result, a rather magical situation has appeared:
The more Nvidia rises, the cheaper it actually is based on fundamentals.
This is what many large institutions#Bitcoin surged and then fell on Friday. Does the data validate the price movement as the price dropped?
First, looking at ETF data, net inflows were 232.2 million on Wednesday, 242.3 million on Thursday, and a net outflow of 201.9 million on Friday. It is clear that starting Wednesday, ETF net inflows fell below the 300-500 million range, showing a slowdown in net inflows.
Second, on Friday, the flow shifted from net inflow to net outflow, indicating initial capital exit. According to ETF data, the net outflow mainly came from IBIT, which highlights the drawback I previously mentioned about ETF net inflows overly relying on a single channel. When capital flow is too concentrated in one channel, buying power does not spread, making optimistic sentiment hard to sustain.
In the crypto market data, trading volume continues to decline, returning to the usual low levels before last week's short-term rally. Although capital still maintains net inflows, compared to ETF data, crypto capital liquidity lacks intuitive clarity.
Next week, the focus will be on observing ETF and crypto capital flows. If ETF data continues to show net outflows, it will confirm the current downward price trend. Moreover, if mainstream crypto funds like USDT and USDC also show net outflows, the correction trend will become even more certain! $BTC 🚨 MRVL BEAT THE NUMBERS — SO WHY DID THE STOCK DROP 8%?
Marvell just delivered a strong quarter:
📈 Revenue: +37% YoY
🏢 Data Center: +46%
🚀 FY27/FY28 outlook: Raised
And yet, $MRVL still fell nearly 8% pre-market.
What’s even more interesting? $SNDK, $MU and $WDC also moved lower, while AI heavyweights like $NVDA and $AVGO stayed relatively steady.
📌 The message from the market may be changing: AI demand itself isn’t necessarily weakening — investors may simply be becoming
#DailyOrbit Why is Bitcoin oscillating at this stage?
1️⃣ The previous surge was too rapid and needs to be digested.
This round of increase was initially triggered by a historic-level short squeeze, followed by about $2.23 billion in ETF funds taking over. However, the short squeeze fuel along the way has been largely consumed, so the marginal momentum of that kind of "short squeeze-driven rally" is declining.
2️⃣ The area above 81K–85K is not just ordinary resistance but a real wall of chips. This is actually the most important reason I believe for the oscillation. In other words, every time BTC rises to around 81K or 82K, it encounters increasingly real selling pressure.
3️⃣ Around 75K is not a comfortable shorting position either.
Recently, ETF funds have clearly flowed back in. Farside data shows almost continuous positive inflows from August 17 to 27, only to see about $202 million net outflow again after Warsh's speech on the 28th.
This indicates there is money coming in from below, but the capital strength is not stable enough to form a one-sided trend.
Most importantly, the macro environment itself is currently a "hedge between two opposing forces." The Treasury vs. the Federal Reserve, with money printing anxiety permeating the U.S. from top to bottom. Right now, it’s stuck in a very typical "support below, supply above" repricing phase.
So there is neither enough reason for a big drop again nor enough new funds to immediately consume all the chips above 85K.
What else can happen but oscillation?
But oscillation is a good thing; the longer the horizontal, the higher the vertical!
Let's just be patient!
The $BTC range at this stage (75,000–82,000) is like the value range after the last bear market started (34,000–47,000).Jensen Huang supports taxing the wealthy but does not support tax increases specifically on AI and robots. Bill Gates recently brought up the old issue of a "robot tax": companies hire workers to bear costs like payroll taxes and social security, but buying robots often counts as capital expenditures. Could this actually encourage companies to replace employees with machines? His suggestion is that taxing AI tokens and robots could be considered to supplement potentially reduced taxes in the future and support retraining for the unemployed and social security. First, what Gates worries about is that the tax system rewards "machines replacing people." Gates' logic is actually not complicated. If a company hires one person, it must continue paying wages and related taxes; but if it buys a robot, it can often be counted as capital expenditure. In this way, the tax system itself could make "machines replacing humans" more cost-effective. So he believes that if AI really starts to replace jobs on a large scale, then letting robots and AI bear part of the tax revenue and using the money for vocational training and safety nets is a topic of discussion. 2. What Jensen Huang Opposes Is Specifically Imposing a Tax on Technology Jensen Huang's stance is also very clear. He does not oppose taxes and even says that taxing the super-rich is "completely fine," but he disagrees with taxing these technologies just because AI and robots might replace jobs. The real difference between him and Gates is not about "whether society should help the unemployed," but rather whether to tax wealth and income, or directly on technological progress itself. HuangThe most interesting phenomenon in the market recently is ZEC.
BTC surged and then pulled back, ETH fluctuated, many altcoins showed no obvious performance, but ZEC still maintained very strong market attention.
Currently, ZEC's price is still running high around $800, with recent gains and trading volume being very prominent.
The most worthy aspect to study in this ZEC rally is not just how much it has risen, but that it has started to show a relatively clear independent trend.
The core narrative behind it remains privacy.
While the whole market is hyping AI, RWA, and ETFs, the privacy sector is actually a relatively scarce direction.
Additionally, with recent market expectations for a ZEC ETF, network upgrades, and heated discussions on privacy demand, funds naturally tend to concentrate on this kind of highly elastic asset.
Of course, the faster it rises, the higher the risk.
ZEC is no longer an overlooked coin with no attention, but a hot asset under the market spotlight.
Therefore, I pay more attention to whether there is support after its pullback, rather than simply chasing the gains to buy.
A truly strong coin is not one that never falls, but one that still has buyers willing to step in after it falls.Everyone is focused on whether 82,000 can be broken.
But the real battleground is at 71,000.
Doctor Profit shared the latest view:
BTC will consolidate and oscillate between 71,000 and 82,000 USD.
71,000 is the bottom of the range, 82,000 is the upper boundary that needs to be broken.
Then everyone is discussing: "Can 82,000 be pushed through?"
Wrong.
Experts watch the lower boundary, beginners watch the upper boundary.
Why?
Because how much it falls determines your loss, how much it rises determines your profit—but the premise is that you are still at the table.
82,000 is the "attack signal," 71,000 is the "survival signal."
If 71,000 is effectively broken: the box logic fails immediately, and below that is 65,000 or even 62,000.
If 71,000 is repeatedly tested but not broken: the bottom is confirmed, and the next attempt to break 82,000 will have a much higher success rate.
Currently, BTC is oscillating around 79,200-79,700, having dropped from above 81,500 to 77,500 on August 28. Without ETF buying support over the weekend, liquidity is as thin as a sheet of paper—any negative news can pierce through.
Short-term holders' cost basis is roughly 70,100 USD, with an average unrealized profit rate close to 15%. What does this mean? These people have a 15% paper profit and are watching the candlesticks, ready to take profits at any time.
Near 82,000 USD, nearly 8% of BTC circulating supply is concentrated, with about 5% of chips concentrated at just the 80,000 USD price level. This is a supply wall.
Before attacking, first ensure you can defend.
What is Doctor Profit doing?
He built a spot position at 62,000, did not short, did not sell, and continues to hold.
He predicts bearish voices will strengthen but does not sell—because he knows 71,000 is the real bottom line.
Breaking through 82,000 is the "confirmation signal," holding 71,000 is the "safety signal."
Don’t ask how much you can earn first, ask yourself if you can hold on.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 In the past month, the large A-shares have been moving like an ECG, with low volume sideways trading and unclear direction.
Sector rotation is fast; today it's rallying brokers, tomorrow it's crushing tech, making it impossible to hold heavy positions.
This reminds me of watching the $BTC market, also a dilemma up and down—sharp drops get bought, sharp rallies get sold off.
Experienced stock market traders know the best strategy during such chaotic periods is to wait and see.
In August, I applied the A-share strategy of "lowest volume indicates lowest price" to $BTC and found that low volume near previous lows indeed led to a rebound.
But the rebound space is limited; you have to take profits after covering fees and run, just like ultra-short-term trading in A-shares.
Don't believe in any independent bull market; global funds are tight now, and when the US market trembles, both sides have to shake.
My current approach: watch A-shares northbound flows during the day and $BTC futures long-short ratio at night, using both to verify each other.
As long as there is no volume breakout above the range's upper boundary,
I treat it as a consolidation, buying low and selling high, never getting attached to the battle.
This experience was all learned from losses in the stock market, and it works just as well in crypto.
Remember, not losing is winning; waiting for the wind is better than chasing it. I built a position at 62,000, today let's talk about why I stand with Doctor Profit
Doctor Profit spoke again today.
He said that in the next few days, bearish voices will grow stronger, and the market will use price volatility to wash out those bulls who chased highs and those with weak positions. BTC will fluctuate between 71,000 and 82,000.
But he didn’t short or sell; the spot position built at 62,000 is still held.
Coincidentally, so am I.
On July 19, Doctor Profit closed short positions on Bitcoin between 115,000-125,000 USD, shorts between 79,000-82,000 USD, plus over 100 altcoin shorts, locking in all profits. Then he announced he started buying Bitcoin spot for the first time since September 2025.
At that time, he said he would buy in batches between 54,000 and 64,000. 62,000, 58,000, 56,000, buying all the way down.
I also built my position in that range.
Not riding the hype — it’s an independent conclusion that just happens to match his.
Today, let’s talk about why.
First, why don’t I short?
BTC above 70,000, shorting can at most earn 20%, going long can earn 100%+. The odds aren’t worth it, anyone can do the math.
More importantly, the direction.
In August, Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq dropped from over 60% at the start of the year to about 33%, while its correlation with gold broke through 50%. BlackRock’s digital asset head said it plainly: Bitcoin is shifting from a speculative asset to a macro hedge.
What does that mean? When AI stocks fall, BTC doesn’t necessarily fall.
In the past two years, when US AI stocks surged crazily, Bitcoin liquidity was drained. Now? Miller Value Partners’ CIO says institutional funds are flowing from AI stocks to Bitcoin.
Decoupling isn’t a temporary mismatch, it’s a narrative shift.
You short at this point? You’ll be repeatedly harvested in a box range. Win rate isn’t favorable, odds aren’t worth it — neither side is on your side, so why do it?
Second, why don’t I sell?
From 62,000 to 82,000, there’s 30% space.
If I could precisely buy low and sell high, of course I would. But I know I don’t have that ability.
82,000 is currently recognized as a key resistance. On August 28, BTC once surged to 81,282 USD, then gave back gains. The market is seriously divided near 82,000, with many traders debating remotely.
But Doctor Profit’s judgment is: whether the breakout happens on the first or third attempt, it will eventually break upward.
In a trend, patience is more important than skill.
This isn’t me saying it, it’s experience learned from losses.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 2.4 billion USD in August, the strongest single-month performance since 2026. The US 1.8 trillion USD fiscal deficit is forcing funds to seek new value stores. Names like BlackRock, Fidelity, Citadel are entering.
You built a position at 62,000, why panic now?
Doctor Profit isn’t panicking. Neither am I.
82,000 isn’t the end, just a speed bump on this leg.
$ETH $TRUMP $ETH #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 8.30 BTC Brief Analysis
The drop on August 29 was not a fundamental reversal but a typical deleveraging event in the derivatives market combined with a spot liquidity vacuum resonance. The current sideways movement around $78,000 reflects the market searching for a new "fair value" while waiting for a clear macro directional signal.
Yesterday's price trajectory was not a simple "cliff-like drop" but a precise liquidity hunt targeting longs:
After the price broke below $79,500, there was a noticeable surge in Taker (aggressive sellers) activity on Coinbase and Binance spot pairs, but this selling pressure did not continue to expand. Instead, it quickly diminished after hitting the low of $76,853. This indicates that the sell-off was mainly triggered by short-term leveraged longs stopping out, rather than a broad distribution by long-term holders.
The $76,800 area happens to be the "chip vacuum zone" with the lowest on-chain turnover rate over the past three months. When the price rapidly fell through this zone, it was like falling off a cliff because there were no orders to absorb the selling, causing slippage to amplify sharply.
Long near $77,000, target $78,000 Doctor Profit spoke today.
The original statement was: "In the coming days, bearish voices on Bitcoin may increase, and bulls will face greater pressure."
Interestingly—he didn’t say "because of some data" or "because of some event."
A trader who makes a living from trading, not specifying a concrete reason, only saying "bearish voices will increase"—what is he predicting?
It’s not a macro event, not a policy negative, it’s the sentiment cycle itself.
Where do the "bearish voices" come from?
The script is already written:
Step one: Bitcoin surges to 80,000, and those chasing the high enter at the upper boundary of the range.
Step two: The price falls back, and these people get trapped.
Step three: The trapped start to panic—looking everywhere for reasons to convince themselves "the bull market is over," then wildly singing bearish on social media.
Step four: The media amplifies the panic, more people follow the sell-off, creating a self-fulfilling short-term decline.
This is what Doctor Profit is warning you about—
Next, you will see an overwhelming flood of "bearish reasons," but most are just noise.
What are the truly noteworthy anomalies?
He says "bearish voices will strengthen," but—
His own spot position built at $62,000 remains untouched. No shorting, no selling.
Someone tells you "the sky is about to darken," yet stands still.
Do you think he’s reminding you to bring an umbrella or telling you to run first?
Since taking profit on a $120,000 short in July, he has been dollar-cost averaging BTC. Switching from hedger to pure bull, betting on the continuation of AI stock corrections and crypto decoupling.
Saying bearish voices will increase, but his actions are honest.
What happened in the past two weeks?
Accumulated liquidations exceeded $9.7 billion—$6.55 billion shorts liquidated, $3.16 billion longs liquidated.
Both bulls and bears got "squeezed out."
But the Fear and Greed Index remains at 69—"Greed."
$9.7 billion in liquidations didn’t crush the sentiment.
What does this mean?
Leverage was squeezed out temporarily, but greed remains.
New leverage will quickly pile back on—then the next round of cleansing.
This is not a trend reversal; it’s a normal process of cleansing latecomers and the undecided.
$82,000—the real battleground
$82,000 has become the market-recognized dividing line between bulls and bears.
Between $80,000 and $82,000, nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is concentrated.
At just the $80,000 price level alone, about 5% of chips are concentrated.
This is one of the densest resistance zones in Bitcoin’s history.
Once the price returns to this zone, many who bought earlier return to their cost line—they will sell.
This is the "supply wall."
Doctor Profit’s range is $71,000 to $82,000.
$71,000 is the bottom, $82,000 is the top.
He says whether the breakout happens on the first or third attempt, it will ultimately be upward.
When the market is unanimously bullish, the risk is greatest.
When "bearish voices increase" but "large positions remain still"—often smart money is accumulating chips.
If you get washed out between $71,000 and $82,000, this range is your "loss zone."
If you understand it, it’s a "power accumulation zone."
Doctor Profit is telling you in a very subtle way—
You will see a lot of noise next. Don’t get carried away by the noise.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 From 120,000 short positions to 62,000 long positions: How a top short seller "defected"
He used to be the most accurate short seller in the crypto circle.
In September 2025, he precisely escaped the top at $126,000, shorting all the way until July this year.
Then, he defected.
Act One: July 30 — Taking Profit
Doctor Profit closed all Bitcoin short positions established around $120,000, taking profits.
At the same time, his short positions in stocks went crazy — MicroStrategy dropped 64.8%, Coinbase dropped 51.8%, Nvidia dropped 8.6%.
His judgment at the time was: AI stocks are adjusting, and crypto is starting to decouple.
The short trend ended. He turned around and started dollar-cost averaging BTC and ETH.
A person who had been short for almost a year voluntarily admitted defeat.
Act Two: Early August — Building Positions
He announced closing all cryptocurrency short positions — including BTC shorts in the $115,000 to $125,000 range, another BTC short in the $79,000 to $82,000 range, and over 100 altcoin shorts opened in recent months.
Then, for the first time since September 2025, he bought BTC spot.
Purchase price: $64,000.
Plan to buy in batches between $54,000 and $64,000, investing 5% of planned funds each time. By early August, 35% was allocated.
He not only closed shorts — he put all his chips on longs.
Act Three: August 30 — Now
BTC is now over $70,000.
His spot position built around $62,000 is still held.
He did not short or sell.
His judgment: BTC will range sideways between $71,000 and $82,000. Short-term bearish voices will strengthen, and longs will face pressure — but he bets on an eventual breakout upward.
$82,000 is the upper boundary, $71,000 is the bottom.
A person who once precisely escaped the top now tells you: Hold, don’t move.
Top traders aren’t those who predict accurately — but those who admit mistakes fastest when the market proves them wrong.
The switch from short to long is more worth learning than any precise price point.
He built a position at $62,000, now over $70,000, floating profit of over ten percent.
But more important than floating profit — he dares to hold, can wait, and does not short at this position.
This is the realization of cognition.
The moment you switch from short to long is the moment you reconcile with the market.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 After the $NVDA earnings report came out, I added some more $MU.
This time, the signal from Nvidia is not just that AI is still rising, but that AI capital expenditure has not stopped.
Everyone is watching NVDA's revenue beating expectations and GPU expansion, but I pay more attention to one detail: Q2 gross margin was 75%, and Q3 guidance drops to 74%, partly due to rising memory costs.
For NVDA, this is cost pressure, but for MU, it could mean profit.
The logic is simple:
AI CapEx ↑ → GPU deployment ↑ → HBM/server memory demand ↑ → memory prices ↑ → MU profitability unleashed.
So when I look at MU, it’s not just a simple "NVDA goes up, MU follows," but AI infrastructure expansion is transmitting to the storage supply chain.
Meanwhile, I will still keep an eye on Bitcoin $BTC. AI represents the expansion of tech capital expenditure, while BTC is more like a thermometer for global liquidity and risk appetite.
If liquidity improves later, and AI and crypto markets resonate again, funds might simultaneously seek tech growth and high-elasticity assets.
If AI computing power is the star on stage, HBM and storage are the behind-the-scenes shovel sellers.
I hope this time the MU I added and the BTC I hold can both give me a surprise. #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：AI需求延伸至存储与软件 FB is currently around $0.325, down more than 99% from the all-time high of $39.25, and only about 3% above the all-time low.
This position is indeed quite miserable, but a large drop only indicates many trapped holders; it still depends on whether there will be users later.
After FIP-102 is implemented, the overall issuance rate will drop from 25 FB per Fractal block to an equivalent of 12.5 FB.
Of that, 6.25 FB will remain in Fractal, and the other equivalent 6.25 FB will be prepared for distribution to Bitcoin mainnet users. The overall new supply will be halved, and rewards for Fractal mining, indexing, and staking will be reduced even more.
I think now is a good time to start taking small positions to pick up bargains.
The bet is on the halving, Bitcoin mainnet distribution, and subsequent UniSat products bringing users back.
Take a little first to observe, and wait for FIP-103 rules, trading volume, and on-chain activity data before deciding whether to increase positions. $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 A top trader no longer looks at the macro, no longer talks about cycles, no longer analyzes on-chain data—he starts guessing "what market makers plan to cut off next." When the market reaches this point, what does it mean? The major trend players have exited, leaving only micro harvesters competing with each other. Killa's exact words: If Bitcoin drops to $61,000, the expected long liquidation would reach $20 billion. Market makers have strong motivation—first dump to liquidate the bulls, then rebuild positions on the ruins. The bottom can stand, but the path to the bottom may be accompanied by a targeted leveraged clean-up. Think about this sentence. He wasn't saying, "Don't be afraid, it's bottom." He meant— "Before bottoming out, you might die once." In September 2023, before BTC hit bottom of 25,000. In August 2024, BTC bottomed out at 49,000. Before every bottom, the market has experienced similar micro-level leveraged cleanups. The harsher the wash, the stronger the bottom. Why? Because only in the bottom area do you need to harvest leverage to gain cheap shares. In a bull market, there's no need to cut long positions—incremental funds will come naturally. Bitcoin fluctuated around $78,000 today, with a Fear and Greed Index of 68, in the greed range. $80,000 became a psychological threshold, and the ETF's nine-day streak of net inflows was just ended. The market is waiting for a direction. But what Killa tells you is — the direction might first wash downward, then truly reverse. When traders start discussing "what market makers want to do," rather than "what the Fed is doing."Sector Rotation Exhaustion Perspective: Rapid Hotspot Switching Is a Leading Signal of Market Top
In the mid-to-late bull market, there is a very typical feature: hotspots rotate rapidly, with each theme erupting for just a day or two before fading.
As old hotspots just pull back, new themes immediately emerge and surge one after another, but no sector can sustain the lead. This phenomenon indicates that existing funds are insufficient to support multiple sectors strengthening simultaneously; capital is exhausted running between sectors, and the market enters a tail phase.
$BTC maintains high-level oscillation, but sector rotation accelerates and sector sustainability worsens. ETH/BTC no longer continues to rise, often corresponding to the rotation market approaching its end. At this time, reduce chasing new themes and focus on position protection.
🟠BTC: Although the overall market price is strong, is sector sustainability declining?
🔵ETH/BTC: Price ratio no longer hits new highs, beware of rotation market retreat
⚠️Market Phenomenon: During the rotation exhaustion phase, new coins and MEME coins become abnormally frenzied, representing a high-risk speculative area.
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK $AMZN (Amazon) — Recently closed at $266.43, up +3.97% on Friday
While chip stocks fell, $AMZN rose against the trend, indicating that funds have not completely left AI but have shifted to platform companies with cash flow and multiple business lines.
AWS can sell AI computing power, and advertising and e-commerce can provide other revenue sources. This structure is more likely to gain funding recognition when market risk appetite declines.
Next week, watch for support at $257.80 and resistance at $267.60. If resistance is broken, it indicates funds continue to trade platform certainty; if it falls back to support, it may just be a single-day risk rotation.
I am Yuvi. The market does not disbelieve AI, but is beginning to distinguish who is responsible for spending money and who can truly collect it.$NVDA (NVIDIA) — Recently closed at $217.55, down 4.57% on Friday
$NVDA rose 8.74% on the first day after the earnings report, then fell back 4.57% the next day. This indicates the market recognizes the performance but still has significant disagreements on valuation.
The most important thing next week is whether it can hold around $216.80. If it holds and consolidates with low volume, it means the new price after the earnings report is still accepted by the market; if it continues to fill the gap, it means the chasing funds are still retreating.
I will not assume an immediate new high just because the earnings are good, nor will I think AI demand is over just because of a one-day pullback.
I am Yuvi. The earnings report resolved the fundamental issues, but the price still needs to resolve the position cost issues.#Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过
Latest Data
The SGP‑0002 proposal passed by a narrow margin, increasing the inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, with a 1.5% floor inflation implemented ahead of schedule, resulting in about 18.9 million fewer SOL issued over 6 years. Market prices: $BTC 77520, $ETH 2426, $SOL 102.5, $OKB 110.1.
Market Consensus
Bullish views believe token supply tightening improves long-term fundamentals; bearish views think staking yields decline, making it difficult to directly drive the market in the short term.
Underlying Logic Analysis
This is merely a long-term optimization of token economic parameters and will not immediately change circulating supply; the benefits are mostly slow-moving variables.
Personal Opinion (Personally leaning towards a gradual bull market return, just a personal view, not investment advice)
This is a value-adding factor and not a reason for short-term trading; BTC, ETH, SOL, and OKB are still primarily judged based on liquidity.