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78.0K has already been breached; the most dangerous impulse is not panic, but mistaking the first dip as a buy-the-dip signal. Public market data shows $BTC around 77.4K, currently at the day's low, with a clear retracement from the 79.3K high.
This is my personal market observation: I won’t immediately buy just because it dropped fast. After breaking a key level, the primary confirmation is not "how cheap it is," but whether the rebound can retake 78.0K and if there is support on the pullback; if it can’t hold, the rebound looks more like relief for trapped funds.
The condition that would overturn my cautious judgment is simple: closing back above 78.0K, with volume following the upward move, and no subsequent decline. Otherwise, I will reduce position assumptions and avoid bottom-fishing against the trend during acceleration.
Overall judgment: first guard against a false rebound, then talk about reversal. Will you wait for a close recovery or focus more on support on the pullback?
This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC
🔥 Surge then pullback! BTC plunged from 79,400 to 77,000
Three main drivers behind this retracement:
· Wash's lingering impact: After the Fed Chair's hawkish remarks, the market is still digesting the September rate hike expectations
· $6.4 billion options expiry: Last Friday BTC options expired, short-term speculative funds exited, amplifying volatility
· Real technical resistance: The 200-day moving average at 78,670 repeatedly suppresses price breakthroughs; on-chain data shows a dense supply zone of 975,000 BTC above 83,000
Last night BTC surged to a high of $79,400, just shy of 80,000, then faced heavy selling pressure and retraced to 77,100, currently around 78,400. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin first broke through 80,000 then pulled back, with the 80,000 level once again acting as a "ceiling."
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK After NVDA released its earnings report, I added some more MU shares. This time, Nvidia's earnings actually gave me a pretty interesting signal.
Everyone is focused on NVDA's revenue beating expectations again and AWS adding 2 million more GPUs, but I paid more attention to one detail: NVDA's Q2 gross margin was 75%, and the Q3 guidance dropped to 74%, partly due to rising memory costs.
This is a cost pressure for NVDA, but from another perspective, who benefits in terms of profit? The answer is quite obvious—MU.
Here's the logic: AI computing power continues to expand, GPUs are being stacked more and more, and the demand for HBM and server memory behind them will grow accordingly. More importantly, the capital expenditure of hyperscale cloud providers is still increasing, which means this round of AI infrastructure investment shows no clear signs of slowing down for now.
So when I look at MU, it's not just that NVDA goes up and MU follows.
It's a more direct logic: AI CapEx, that is, the rise in artificial intelligence capital expenditure, leads to increased demand for HBM/server memory, so memory prices will rise, and ultimately the memory giant MU's profitability becomes stronger.
That's why I think, at this stage, MU's odds might be more interesting than simply chasing the AI leader.
Of course, everyone knows the biggest issue with storage stocks—the cycle.
When prices rise, profit elasticity is very high, but once supply starts to increase and storage prices peak, the logic will quickly reverse.
So I won't go all-in on MU just because of one NVDA earnings report; instead, I will focus on observing signals like future memory prices, MU's fundamentals, and capital flowing back into the semiconductor sector.
If the trend is confirmed, I would be more willing to treat MU as a catch-up play in this round of AI infrastructure market. Last Friday, the US stock market broadly closed lower and consolidated, with the Nasdaq and S&P slightly retreating. The technology and semiconductor sectors weakened noticeably, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging over 3% in a single day, clearly signaling pressure at high levels.
The core suppression came from the hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, which sharply increased market expectations for a September rate hike. In the short term, US Treasury yields rebounded and the dollar strengthened, directly suppressing valuations of high-level tech growth stocks, which is the main trigger for this round of index pullback.
Market structure:
The major indices' declines are controllable, overall showing high-level oscillation and shakeout, but AI semiconductors and high-level tech are the main hard-hit areas, with funds clearly taking profits at highs and flowing back into safe havens.
Overall forecast for tonight: biased towards weak oscillation, continuing digestion pattern
1. The indices have no risk of a sharp drop but are unlikely to rebound quickly; there is significant resistance above;
2. Technology and semiconductors will continue to face pressure in the short term; avoid chasing highs at elevated levels;
3. Financials and traditional value sectors are relatively resilient, with a continued differentiated market.
The biggest market focus this week: Broadcom earnings + Nonfarm payroll data
These two data points will directly determine whether US stocks can stabilize and whether the AI sector can see a secondary recovery. Tonight is mainly for wait-and-see digestion.
Trading strategy:
Continue to avoid high-level tech, maintain a light position and observe overall, waiting for negative factors to be fully digested and for the market to show signs of stabilization and stopping the decline before participating. Short-term rhythm: do not chase highs, guard against continued declines, wait for stabilization. $SNDK $BTC
In the early crypto recovery of 2023-2024,
Bitcoin's performance is basically much stronger than altcoins.
This is also a very healthy sign
and many people choose to hold Bitcoin first at the beginning of a bull market.
Take DOGE as an example in the recovery year 2023-2024,
DOGE was almost flat,
but Bitcoin had already risen about 150%.
And the fact that Bitcoin is usually stronger during bull market recoveries,
will this continue?
I believe it will, but there may be changes.
The current situation is very different from before.
OTHERS' exchange rate against BTC is in a long-term upward trend,
and the lows have not been broken,
which means the average performance of OTHERS is still better than Bitcoin.
In the recovery years 2019 and 2023,
OTHERS/BTC exchange rate was at mid-levels.
Unless OTHERS/BTC is also at mid-levels now,
but the technical analysis pattern seems to be forming a bottom.
According to the past pattern of higher bottoms,
the probability of a low position is higher than mid-level.
If the bottom of OTHERS/BTC has already passed,
it means the upward cycle will continue.
The average future performance of altcoins will still be higher than BTC.
So even though I know Bitcoin usually performs better during bull market recoveries,
I still hold most altcoins.
And ETH/BTC is still in an upward trend now,
with weekly RSI showing bullish divergence,
which is also different from past bear market conditions.
This is also a signal worth paying attention to.September's A-shares are so boring they make people nod off.
Trading volume has shrunk like a hemp rope, hotspots change every day; today it's chasing military stocks, tomorrow they're buried.
Holding that small position, stuck neither up nor down, I simply switched to check out the crypto world.
Goodness, it's a completely different world over there.
$BTC stubbornly surged from 58,000 to 64,000 in mid-September, drawing a textbook V-shaped reversal.
But strangely, altcoins didn't follow; $ETH actually stayed flat.
Old stock traders immediately understand this situation—it's a zero-sum game, not enough money to go around.
It's like the A-share market pulling banks to crush small caps; the main force is focusing fire on the leaders.
That sharp drop in early September, with spikes and margin calls, was just like the panic stampede when our market broke 3,000 points.
Only the crypto market doesn't mess around; it wiped out two weeks of A-share losses in two days.
I learned my lesson and tried bottom-fishing using the stock market's "lowest volume signals lowest price" strategy, but ended up buying halfway up the mountain.
Later I realized, crypto has no financial reports, no support teams, it all depends on market sentiment in one breath.
There's no logic, it's just about who runs faster and who has stricter discipline.
The lesson from September is simple: don't bring stock market patience into crypto; over there, you need quick eyes and fast hands.
Set your stop-loss line well, cut losses when it hits, don't hesitate, staying alive means you get the next round.$BTC THE REAL SHIFT IS HAPPENING BEHIND THE CHART
Bitcoin reclaiming $80K is getting attention, but I think the bigger story is the type of capital entering the market.
The latest ETF flows suggest institutional demand is becoming a more important part of Bitcoin's structure.
That changes the way BTC should be viewed.
This isn't simply another crypto rally driven by retail excitement and leverage.
Bitcoin is increasingly being discussed alongside traditional macro assets like gold, especially when investors start thinking about inflation, currency debasement and long-term monetary risk.
But there is an important difference.
Gold has decades of established history as a defensive asset.
Bitcoin is still proving itself.
Its volatility remains significantly higher, and sharp corrections can happen even when the long-term thesis remains intact.
That's why I don't think the $80K reclaim alone is enough.
The real test is whether Bitcoin can hold the level while demand remains consistent.
If capital continues flowing into spot products and BTC maintains higher support, the market could gradually become more comfortable pricing Bitcoin as a strategic asset rather than simply a speculative trade.
And if that happens, the potential impact goes beyond one cycle.
We're talking about a gradual change in how capital views scarcity in a digital economy.
Gold represents physical scarcity.
Bitcoin represents digital scarcity.
Both can attract attention when confidence in monetary stability becomes uncertain, but Bitcoin is still much earlier in that journey.
So I'm watching three things from here:
ETF flows — Is institutional demand continuing?
$80K — Can BTC turn resistance into support?
Macro liquidity — Are financial conditions becoming more favorable or restrictive?
If all three align, the current move could have a stronger foundation than a typical crypto rally.
If they don't, Bitcoin may simply need more time to consolidate.
Either way, the important development is clear:
Bitcoin's conversation is getting bigger. $ETH $SKHY $SNDK 1. Fundamentals & Product Negatives 1. Risk of Delay in HBM4 Shipments Bernstein estimates based on South Korean export data show a 27% decline in Hynix HBM-related exports in July compared to April; the market speculates that Rubin chip's supporting HBM4 delivery is delayed. Samsung's HBM4 ramp-up is significantly faster, and Samsung's HBM revenue in Q3 may surpass Hynix. Although this is only institutional speculation and not officially confirmed, it has already suppressed market expectations. 2. Long-term Contracts Are a "Profit Ceiling," Not a Shield A large amount of HBM prices are locked by long-term supply agreements: when AI demand surges and spot prices rise, it cannot capture spot premiums; once AI demand weakens, long-term contracts make rapid price adjustments difficult. Earnings flexibility is locked, which is the biggest point of disagreement among institutions. 3. High Dependence on a Single Customer, Nvidia Over half of the company's profits come from HBM, highly tied to Nvidia. Nvidia GPU specifications can change at any time (rumored Rubin VRAM specs downgrade); once GPU VRAM plans are modified, it directly impacts Hynix's long-term revenue expectations. Nvidia continues to promote supply chain diversification, with Samsung and Micron HBM capacity ramping up, eroding Hynix's exclusive benefits. 4. Huge Capital Expenditure Consuming Cash Flow To maintain HBM advantages, continuous aggressive capacity expansion and factory construction are required, with massive annual capital investments; even if accounting profits are high, free cash flow will be heavily consumed. Once the industry cycle turns, high depreciation will quickly crush profitability. 5. Worsening Competitive Landscape According to the logic of the previous two Planet articles, being bullish on Broadcom means you can buy it directly. If you are bearish on Broadcom, you can supplement with spot positions in Meta and Google. Because when customers squeeze supplier profits, the customers benefit; in this scenario, holding Google can partially buffer the supplier profit risk of Broadcom.
The relationship among the three is: Google and Meta spend money to build AI data centers, and Broadcom collects money from that.
The possible trend is Broadcom falling while the other two rise, or all three rising together. If all three fall together, it indicates the market is starting to doubt the returns on AI investments, at which point gold and BTC will rise.
If you want to buy all, just hold spot positions; otherwise, you won’t be able to hold them. The entire investment market is currently rotating, and following the rhythm is rarely wrong.
If you use leverage, you should close your position after reviewing the financial report; treat it like a scratch card, and calculate your take-profit and stop-loss carefully. If major clients like Google, Meta, OpenAI, etc., are unwilling to give all AI computing power profits to NVIDIA, then Broadcom is currently one of the most mature self-developed ASIC partners.
From a certain perspective, Broadcom is the secondary shovel seller in AI infrastructure expansion.
Broadcom's data from the last quarter was already very strong. Q2 AI semiconductor revenue was $10.8 billion, a year-over-year increase of 143%. At that time, the company’s guidance for the next quarter’s AI semiconductor revenue was $16 billion, a year-over-year increase of over 200%.
Going from $10.8 billion to $16 billion means nearly a 50% quarter-over-quarter growth in a short time, which is quite an exaggerated slope.
If the financial report shows AI semiconductor revenue significantly exceeding $16 billion, the market will likely revise the 2027 AI revenue model upward, making a valuation increase very possible.
My deepest understanding of Broadcom is that it sells the ability for clients to shorten their R&D cycles, so this moat is very deep, harder to replicate than paper patents, allowing it to benefit simultaneously from Google TPU, custom ASICs, and AI network expansion.
If you want to trade short-term, you can choose to use a small amount of capital with leverage to bet on the earnings report, setting stop-loss and take-profit according to option market volatility pricing. I am long, planning to close the position after a drop and then hold the spot.
No need to short. If you are bearish on AI-related stocks, you can directly use the money from short positions to buy BTC spot or gold. Don’t short US stocks without reason.Don't rush, no rush at all, I treat this weekend's rally as fishing.
$ETH has already surged to 2510, standing back above the three moving averages on the 4-hour chart, and the MACD has turned positive.
It looks pretty good, but although ETF inflows have provided some support at the bottom, the problem is that the proportion of long positions has soared to around 72%, and the long-short ratio has reached 2.57.
With longs so crowded, once it turns back, the stampede won't be gentle.
$BEAT's market cap is only a bit over 40 million dollars, with very thin trading volume. The selling pressure from previous unlocks hasn't been fully absorbed, and the chips are concentrated in the hands of a few.
If 0.13 doesn't hold, it will have to test lower; only when it stands back above 0.15 can it catch a breather, and around 0.178 remains a hurdle.
$SNDK closed near 1485 on Friday, rallying intraday from 1437 to 1516, with both longs and shorts getting shaken out hard.
The news of SanDisk and Kioxia expanding production is indeed a long-term positive, but some are still taking profits at the high levels.
However, there is no major data from the US on Monday, so whether it can be pushed down depends on the performance of the US stock market and semiconductor sector.
I still lean bearish, but honestly, the short position is less than 4% away from the forced liquidation line at 2609.
I say I'm not worried, but deep down, the tension is still there.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK The most critical thing for $BTC right now is not how much it rises, but whether it can reclaim $80K.
After surging near $81,300 and then falling back, BTC's lowest point reached around $77,000.
It has now returned to around $78,000.
This rebound looks good, but the real test is still ahead.
$79,500—$80,000 is the level the bulls must break through.
If it breaks through with volume and holds above $80K, market sentiment is likely to quickly strengthen, and the next step will be to challenge the previous high of $81,300 again.
But if every time it approaches $80K it gets pushed down, beware that the rebound might be a "bull trap."
Below that, keep a close eye on $77,000.
If it holds, there is still a chance for consolidation and recovery.
If it breaks below, the short-term structure clearly weakens, and attention should return to around $76K and $74K.
So don’t rush to bet now.
Break above 80K, then consider attacking.
Break below 77K, first consider defense.
The consolidation in between is not worth risking principal to prove your judgment. @王短鸟（长鸟版） Is Wang Duanniao really going to win big this time on $OKB?
In August 2025, OKX will burn about 65.26 million OKB tokens at once, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million. The supply is reduced, and the reduction is significant, instantly maximizing scarcity, with the number deliberately aligned to Bitcoin's 21 million.
The bigger change is: it’s no longer just an exchange platform token. On X Layer, transfers, DeFi, and RWA all require paying fees with OKB. OKX has a large user base; as users move from the exchange to the chain, they will genuinely consume this token. Staking, interactions, and project onboarding will all increase demand.
Previously, profits from the platform were used for buybacks; now it depends on whether people are truly using it on-chain.
Ultimately, it comes down to three things: whether serious projects are running on X Layer, whether real money is being invested, and whether regulations suddenly tighten.
If the ecosystem really heats up, the price will have solid support. If it’s still just hype and no real use, even with the total supply locked at 21 million, it’s just good on paper. $OKB #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $BTC BTC broke 80,000 and has been stuck oscillating at a high level; it should move out of this consolidation range this week.
ETF inflows continue, supporting the market floor, but veteran players are starting to take profits, and shorts are increasing their positions. Both longs and shorts on-chain are aggressively active, with no clear winner yet.
A noticeable change is that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly synchronized with gold, and less tied to US tech stocks.
In short, market sentiment is shifting away from just speculating on tech risks and starting to use it as a hedge against currency depreciation. But remember, this is only a short-term phenomenon, not a permanent correlation.
$XAU At Jackson Hole, hawkish remarks were made; inflation has not yet been brought down to target, and the probability of a September rate hike has jumped to nearly 60%. US Treasury yields are surging, and both gold and Bitcoin are being hammered down.
This point must be clear: even if BTC is rising with gold now, it doesn’t mean they will always move in lockstep.
$ETH Fundamentally, the two are completely different assets; they are only temporarily moving together due to US dollar expectations.
Once rate hike expectations continue to heat up, leverage starts to contract, and the macroeconomic hammer falls, prices will fall as they should.
Don’t stubbornly bet on a one-sided move in the high range; macro variables are significant, so don’t be blindly optimistic.
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Superstorm this week! The September 4th Nonfarm Payroll is the "master switch," strong data will solidify rate hike expectations
Family, pay attention, the market is about to face two superstorms next week 🌪️
1️⃣ September 4th (Friday) Nonfarm Payroll report — this is the last employment report before the September 16th FOMC meeting, known as the "master switch." If the data is strong, it will further boost rate hike bets; if weak, rate hike expectations may retreat.
2️⃣ Broadcom earnings — the second key sample of AI capital expenditure after Nvidia, the market needs a "second witness" to confirm that the AI narrative is not an isolated case.
In addition, there will be frequent Federal Reserve officials' speeches next week:
📢 Thursday: Fed Governor Waller interview
📢 Friday: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester's opening remarks
📢 Beige Book: an important reference depicting the economic picture
This means that almost every day next week could have catalysts triggering market volatility. For cryptocurrencies, BTC's current position at 78,000 is very sensitive — upward movement requires the catalyst of weak Nonfarm data, while downward movement may break due to strong data plus hawkish officials' statements.
The most favorable scenario for risk assets: weak Nonfarm + Broadcom earnings beat expectations → rate hike probability falls + AI narrative strengthens → BTC rebounds
The least favorable scenario: strong Nonfarm + collective hawkish officials → rate hike expectations solidify → BTC tests 75,000 or even 70,000
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Air Force brothers, the meat is on the table!!🤫🤫
I just said it yesterday, and before I finished speaking, $TRUMP promptly crashed the market.
First, one-way liquidity injection, withdrawals running away. Just the day before yesterday, TRUMP was unilaterally injected into the Meteora liquidity pool, and today USDC has already been withdrawn clean—$3.39 million withdrawn in 10 hours. The market doesn't show a direct dump, but a one-sided pool is essentially the same old story: traders swap coins within a set range, and TRUMP automatically converts to USDC. Withdrawals were $4.6 million in April, $94 million in December—an old script.
Second, sell on every rebound, a tried and true tactic. TRUMP is a habitual offender; every rebound is a selling window. Last week, the White House crypto summit combined with rumors of "Trump launching a new coin" caused a 75% surge in a week. After Eric Trump personally denied the rumors, the team sold millions of coins at the peak, cashing out over $12 million. On-chain evidence is crystal clear—every pump call is just liquidity provision for the team to cash out at high prices.
Third, a bigger bomb is coming. On September 18, 28.7 million TRUMP tokens will unlock, which at $2.5 each means $77 million selling pressure. Don't forget that every day in September, 900,000 tokens continue to flood the market. Total supply is 1 billion tokens, about 80% held by Trump-related entities, and this unlocking plan will run through 2028.
#伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码
#TRUMP关联地址减持，抛压会否延续？ Today, I want to recommend the stock AVGO (Broadcom) to all the brothers who like watching AV.
A few days ago, Nvidia's earnings report proved that AI capital expenditure hasn't collapsed yet.
This is also very important for AVGO because AVGO is not simply competing with NVIDIA in the GPU market.
We can roughly break down the AI data center into:
1. Computing chips → GPU / ASIC
2. Networking → Switch / Ethernet / interconnect
3. Custom chips → Google TPU / OpenAI ASIC, etc.
Broadcom covers two and a half of these three, especially the latter two.
So if AI clusters continue to expand wildly (which Nvidia's earnings report has somewhat proven), then Broadcom's AI Networking and Custom ASIC are more likely to secure orders.
$AVGO Over the weekend, $BTC pulled up to 79300 and then continued to decline, essentially a false breakout caused by low liquidity: institutions and market makers left the market over the weekend, and the order book depth was 30%–40% thinner than on weekdays. A small amount of capital could push the price to resistance levels, creating a "breakout" illusion, but lacking real buying support.
79300 happens to be stuck in a previously dense trading zone, with selling pressure from trapped positions being released, short-term profit-taking, and bears rebuilding positions all overlapping. The price failed to stabilize effectively and fell back stepwise, with the highs gradually moving lower. The 78200 starting point has been tested multiple times, weakening its support.
Combined with Monday's broad decline in US stock futures and the sudden change in the Iran situation triggering risk aversion, this "fake breakout" looks more like leverage reduction plus a liquidity trap rather than a trend reversal. The true confirmation of direction depends on whether liquidity recovers in the Asian session on Monday and if 79000 can be reclaimed; if it cannot hold above that, bears will take control, with the downside target at the dense chip zone of 77500–77000. From a trading perspective, chasing longs is not advisable; shorting is possible when the rebound meets resistance at 78800–79000, with a strict stop loss above 79300.
$ETH $SOL
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 When talking about "large on-chain anomalies," one thought comes to mind: don't just look at the K-line; what truly determines the short-term direction is the smart money daring to bet heavily. Let's start with the "Bull Come" wave, a typical script of main forces resonating with the exchange.
At 19:30 on August 30, Binance launched the Bull Come contract, and the market cap quickly rose from 93 million to 104 million, surging over 159% in 24 hours. The key is that a few hours earlier, on-chain analysts detected that the suspected KOL @XXAntiWar's address bought 17.56 million tokens at a market cap of 86 million, costing about 1.51 million USD. Once the announcement was made, their position's unrealized profit once exceeded 47%, with a peak unrealized gain of 860,000 USD.
The logic is clear: the exchange supports liquidity by launching a high-profile Meme contract, while smart money pre-positions to harvest the information asymmetry. @XXAntiWar has a strong track record, and this heavy bet shows a clear capital advantage.
So who will be next? Pons ($PONS) on Robinhood Chain is worth watching. As the native token issuance platform on that chain, Pons is regarded by the community as the Pump.fun of that chain, having paid over 20 million USD to creators in the past 47 days, with a market cap once exceeding 3.6 billion. If Robinhood follows up with contract launches, a similar script of "heavy positions before announcement, harvesting after announcement" is likely to replay on Pons. Overall, monitoring large on-chain anomalies means tracking the flow of information asymmetry. Don't chase the rally; wait for signals, see where the smart money goes, then decide whether to follow.📊 $DOGE Contract Liquidation Express (August 31)
Long positions crashed from an extreme 74.7x leverage down to 6.77x, with a 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeding $4.81 million, concentration reaching 98.5%, and short squeeze momentum completely exhausted...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $2.332 million $2.3012 million $0.0308 million
4 hours $4.0174 million $3.9333 million $0.0841 million
12 hours $4.7435 million $4.1245 million $0.619 million
24 hours $4.8158 million $4.1963 million $0.6196 million
In 1 hour, longs dominated with an extreme 74.7x leverage controlling the market, amounting to $2.3012 million; at 4 hours, long leverage dropped to 46.8x with volume surging to $3.9333 million; at 12 hours, longs crashed to 6.66x leverage with volume rising to $4.1245 million; at 24 hours, only 6.77x remained, with $4.1963 million liquidated longs versus $0.6196 million shorts, totaling over $4.81 million. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 98.5% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration—longs nearly completed all harvesting within 12 hours, but leverage plummeted from 46.8x to 6.77x. Long leverage fell from 74.7x to 6.77x, short squeeze momentum fully depleted, and the long-short gap rapidly returned to equilibrium. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; although the direction is bullish, the strength has significantly weakened, so avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Waller's hawkish tone reignites rate hike expectations, Bitcoin's high-level oscillation strengthens its correlation with gold, and a $13 trillion asset management giant accelerates its crypto expansion—three forces reshaping the market landscape within the same time window.
🏛️ Waller Turns Hawkish: Rate Hike Probability Soars to 60%
On August 28 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. He mentioned "inflation" 25 times, clearly stating that U.S. inflation remains "too high," and if inflation does not fall "fast enough," "there is still work to do." Although Waller emphasized "do not interpret today's speech as forward guidance," the market quickly digested his hawkish signal—the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the meeting to 60%; the two-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points intraday to 4.33%; the dollar index closed up 0.6%. Former Fed Vice Chair Brainard commented that this statement "seems to be looking for a rationale for rate hikes." Waller sent the loudest hawkish signal with a "quiet" speech.
₿ BTC High-Level Oscillation: Strengthened Gold Correlation, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin briefly surpassed $81,000 this week, then retreated to oscillate at a high level between $78,000 and $79,000; international gold prices simultaneously approached $4,700/oz. The common source of strength for both assets points to the revaluation of fiat credit triggered by U.S. Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen above 50%. Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a record $7 billion in inflows. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously.
🏦 Schwab Adds SOL, AVAX, and LINK: $13 Trillion Giant's Crypto Expansion
On August 27, financial services giant Charles Schwab, with $13 trillion in assets under management, announced plans to add Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Chainlink (LINK) trading services to the Schwab Crypto platform in the coming months. Schwab Crypto launched in May 2026, previously supporting only Bitcoin and Ethereum. As one of the largest U.S. retail brokers moves from "testing the waters" to "expansion," the boundary between traditional finance and crypto is rapidly dissolving.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Waller paves the way for a September rate hike with "still work to do," hawkish tone confirmed; Bitcoin and gold strengthen together under the macro narrative of U.S. debt surpassing $40 trillion, with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Schwab expands from BTC/ETH to SOL, AVAX, and LINK, accelerating traditional financial institutions' crypto layout. DOGE contract longs crashed from 74.7x to 6.77x leverage, with cumulative liquidations of $4.81 million and 98.5% concentration, short squeeze momentum fully exhausted. Combined with BTC liquidations exceeding $45.24 million and ETH over $54.15 million, the three major coins' 24-hour total liquidations exceed $100 million, signaling a comprehensive retreat of longs. As central bank tone, macro narratives, and institutional expansion converge in the same time window—the market is repricing September in the clearest way. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK The delisting of the CORE token by leading exchanges like Binance is a significant external warning signal for the project, indicating a severe blow to liquidity and market recognition, which directly harms a large number of ordinary holders.
Many community opinions believe that after the delisting event, the project leadership did not give enough public attention or timely communication and adjustments regarding the delisting crisis and community concerns. They continued development at the original pace, giving the impression of acting arbitrarily and ignoring the real situation of retail investors.
Objectively, there are two realities here:
1. Exchanges have multi-dimensional evaluation criteria for delisting, including trading volume, liquidity, development activity, compliance, and market performance. This does not necessarily mean the project is completely dead, but it directly damages liquidity and market confidence. Once a top exchange seat is lost, the token’s trading depth will shrink significantly, making it harder for holders to liquidate.
2. From the project’s perspective, a public chain project can continue running on-chain nodes and iterating ecosystem products; but from the ordinary investor’s perspective, what is expected is that the project faces the problem head-on during a crisis and reassures the community, rather than just focusing on technology and ignoring the market liquidity crisis and holders’ loss pressure.
When a major negative event occurs, the lack of a public crisis response from the project can easily drain the remaining community support. No matter how good the story or technical whitepaper is, the exchange’s attitude, token price trend, and selling pressure are the real votes of the market. Once trust is lost, it becomes exponentially harder to reverse the situation later.The $TRUMP token faces 4-hour double top resistance near $2.80, resonating with the correction pressure from the overvaluation of the US stock DJT. The current core conflict lies in the confirmation of the right-side breakdown between the $2.65 neckline support and the selling pressure from chip transfers above.
The market structure shows that $TRUMP has fallen steadily from the previous high of $73, rebounded after hitting a low of $1.37 in early August, and currently forms a clear 4-hour double top at $2.80. The 1-hour level simultaneously constructs a descending flag continuation pattern, with short-term volatility narrowing between the $2.65 neckline and $2.80 resistance.
The driving factor primarily comes from large chip selling pressure. Associated wallets transferred 2.62 million TRUMP tokens (equivalent to about $6.21 million) to exchanges, directly suppressing the price to fall 33% from the high to $2.40, indicating that the large holders' willingness to cash out outweighs the locked-in forces on the market.
Secondly, news traps suppress valuation. Previously, false rumors stimulated the price to surge 80% within 24 hours to $3.60, but subsequent denial statements quickly caused a 33% price pullback, confirming that $3.60 is a distribution zone. The US stock DJT’s price-to-sales ratio is as high as 915 times, with mid-term targets down to $6.25 or even $4.65, fundamentally cutting off the token’s premium space.
The bullish scenario triggers if the price closes above $2.90. If a sudden event stimulates capital inflow and the price holds above $2.90, it will trigger short-covering, pushing the price to retest the $3.60 liquidation zone; if the rebound fails to break through $2.90 with volume, the structure remains a high-level bull trap, and a drop below $2.80 will declare the bullish scenario invalid.
The bearish scenario triggers if the price breaks below the $2.65 4-hour neckline and the lower edge of the 1-hour descending flag. Once the closing price falls below $2.65, confirming the right-side breakdown, selling pressure will accelerate and open the downside space to test $2.40 and even the historical low of $1.37; a quick intraday recovery above $2.65 will invalidate the bearish scenario.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on the closing effectiveness at the $2.65 neckline and whether large chips show signs of a second transfer to exchanges.
#财报观察员：AI需求延伸至存储与软件 #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开#财报观察员：AI需求延伸至存储与软件
If BTC is digital gold and ETH is on-chain infrastructure, then HYPE represents another path:
Trading infrastructure.
The most valuable aspect to study about projects like Hyperliquid is not the token price, but their attempt to move a large volume of derivatives trading directly on-chain.
In the latest market rankings, HYPE has already entered near the top ten by market capitalization.
This indicates a change:
The market is beginning to assign higher valuations to "on-chain trading platforms."
In the past, everyone speculated on public chains.
Then on DeFi.
Now the market is starting to realize that protocols capable of consistently generating trading volume and fees may have more direct commercial value.
So HYPE's real competitors are not necessarily just other tokens.
What it truly needs to face in the future are centralized exchanges.
If on-chain trading can continuously approach centralized platforms in speed, depth, cost, and user experience, then the valuation logic for models like HYPE will be completely different.
This is also why I believe it is worth observing over the long term. 上任三个月，沃什的风格终于被市场看清：不承诺，只划界。这和鲍威尔时代完全不同——过去美联储习惯提前给出方向性指引，市场也早已适应“联储会救市”的预期。如今沃什直接砍掉前瞻指引、废除点阵图，说白了就是：我不会告诉你我下一步做什么，数据决定一切。🗂️ 首次亮相杰克逊霍尔，整场演讲没有一句关于“何时降息”，反而反复强调通胀风险。2%目标“坚定且不可动摇”，“核心通胀未明显回落前仍有工作要做”——这等于直接告诉市场：别赌降息，先把通胀压下来再说。 结果，9月加息预期迅速升温，市场措手不及。比特币从81452跌至76888，单日振幅近5000美元；以太坊从2550跌至2450下方，跌幅超3%；黄金更惨，从4631跌至4444，直接失守4500关口。三大资产同步下挫，超96000人遭遇清算。📉 本质在于，市场尚未适应沃什的新规则。过去美联储看市场脸色行事，现在完全以经济数据定节奏，重要数据公布前，波动率大概率维持高位。9月FOMC前还有核心PCE和非农两份关键数据，那才是真正的方向标。当前阶段不宜单边押注，轻仓观望最为稳妥。 风险提示：市场波动较大，以上内容仅为市场观察，不构成投资建议，请理性Recently, capital flows in the AI storage sector have shown clear divergence, with the three core targets each in different situations that deserve careful analysis. After a surge in Micron $MU's stock price, it gently retraced its 20-day moving average, with trading volume shrinking in tandem. Institutional consensus is the most stable, and net capital inflows are clear—a typical strong consolidation. In contrast, SanDisk $SNDK has seen considerable gains this year, but after hitting its peak, it faced fierce sell-offs, heavy profit-taking pressure, and divergent institutional views have sharply diverged, leading to increased capital inflows and outflows. SK Hynix, on the other hand, is dragged down by domestic Korean capital flows, with ADRs continuing to flow out and short-term momentum weak. Looking at the overall funding ranking, Micron leads, SK Hynix is in the middle, and SanDisk ranks last. Fundamentals each have their own notable points. Micron covers the entire DRAM, HBM, and NAND chain, with long-term contracts accounting for about half of revenue, making profit revaluation logic. However, expanding capacity in the US requires huge capital expenditures and a long fulfillment cycle. SK Hynix is the absolute leader in HBM, with HBM3E deeply tied to Nvidia. HBM4 will ramp up early in Q2. Management has bluntly stated that the supply-demand gap may continue until 2030, but its 2029 mass production plan remains uncertain. SanDisk's business is purely focused on enterprise NAND and SSDs. From 2028 to 2030, revenue and gross profit growth rates are expected to reach 80%, but it lacks cyclical hedging between DRAM and HBM. Some major banks believe NAND prices are nearing their peak. Technically, Micron shows a head-and-shoulders bottom-bottom structure, with SanDisk showing strong support near 1400.#财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解
Latest Data
The U.S. Treasury is considering using funds from the TGA government cash account to buy back long-term bonds. Upon the news, long-term bond yields briefly fell but soon rebounded. $BTC 77420.
Market Consensus
Some view TGA funds as a powerful tool that can stabilize the bond market; however, more institutions see it as only a temporary support measure that cannot solve the longstanding issues of large deficits and heavy bond issuance.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Using cash on hand to buy bonds can temporarily increase buying demand and release some liquidity, but it does not reduce total debt. Once the money is used up, fiscal pressure remains, and the problem of long-term bond supply is not fundamentally resolved.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
This is a marginal positive, but do not be overly optimistic. The main focus remains on changes in U.S. Treasury yields. BlackRock bought $15 billion in cryptocurrency in one month, and Russia will start accepting ETH collateral loans tomorrow
When I saw these two pieces of news, my first reaction was to check the original announcements from the Russian Central Bank and Sberbank.
BlackRock's crypto holdings increased from $53.36 billion to $68.48 billion in August, a surge of $15 billion in a single month. Bitcoin spot ETFs are the main force, with holdings jumping from $47.69 billion to $60.35 billion.
But last Friday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $202 million, ending a nine-day streak of net inflows.
BlackRock is buying, while others are selling.
On the other side, tomorrow, September 1, Russia's new crypto law officially takes effect.
Russia's largest bank, Sber, has announced plans to accept USDT and Ethereum as loan collateral. The vice chairman clearly stated that after approval from the central bank, these will be formally included as collateral.
BlackRock represents compliance to the extreme—ETFs, custody, Wall Street channels. Russia is an alternative layout after sanctions—collateral loans, cross-border payments, bypassing the dollar.
One is the world's largest asset management company, the other is the most heavily sanctioned country globally. Both are making moves—crypto is becoming the common language of two parallel worlds.
BlackRock is scooping up assets, Russia is paving the way. Different directions, but the same destination.
I will continue to watch whether BlackRock resumes inflows on Monday; this speaks louder than any candlestick chart.
$ETH $USDT Altcoin season is coming, or is it just another FOMO trap?
BTC faced resistance after hitting $81,300 and has currently pulled back to around $78,500; ETH remains in the $2,400–$2,500 range. Recently, inflows into spot BTC ETFs have heated up again, with institutional funds continuously returning over the past few trading days, providing some support to the market.
But the problem is: altcoins have not truly experienced a broad-based rally.
Currently, market attention is mainly focused on a few strong assets like SOL, XRP, and HYPE, while tokens such as H, LAB, KAITO, BEAT, and SNDK remain weak.
This looks more like a localized rotation of funds rather than a confirmed full-fledged Altseason.
BTC has not completely broken through key resistance zones, and the macro environment remains uncertain. Additionally, BTC’s recent pullback after surging near $81,000 indicates clear profit-taking pressure above.
So what we need to be most cautious about now is not missing out on the rally, but FOMO triggered by a few altcoins suddenly surging, leading to chasing prices before liquidity truly broadens.
A real altcoin season should involve widespread capital diffusion, not just a few popular coins running wild alone.
Before confirming a clear improvement in market breadth, patience may be more important than blindly chasing gains.
Right now, it looks more like a Rotation rather than a complete Altseason.$BTC is hovering around $78K–$79K while $ETH sits near $2.45K. But neither has confirmed the next trend. A pump can squeeze shorts. A pullback can wipe leveraged longs. So don’t watch candles alone. 👀 Watch: • Volume • Open Interest • Spot demand If price rises while OI climbs but spot buying stays weak → 🚨 FOMO trap. The healthier setup? Leverage cools off + spot buyers absorb supply + price holds. Until then, patience beats chasing. Let the market confirm the move first. 🎯 #BTC #ETH #CryptoSaylor posted "We're ₿ack," which is not a buy signal but a restart signal for the institutional capital machine.
From what I see, this time is different from the old script of "posting a chart on Sunday → filing an 8-K to increase holdings on Monday": The Strategy holds about 840,447 $BTC (average cost around $75,385), and BTC returning to $78k+ has turned the paper profit positive. There is still $6.69 billion in liquidity on the books (including a $1.59 billion free cash pool). So what’s "back" is not faith, but the closed loop of issuing preferred shares/ATM fundraising → converting to BTC on dips has restarted.
My judgment has three layers:
1. Short-term sentiment is bullish, but don’t take it as a guarantee to "buy immediately"; before the SEC filing is finalized, it’s just an expectation game;
2. In the medium term, MSTR uses BTC as a balance sheet arbitrage tool: when prices rise, they issue more shares; when prices fall, they buy back STRC. Retail investors following this trend risk buying at a high premium;
3. What really matters is not what Saylor says, but whether next week’s 8-K adds new holdings, whether STRC continues buybacks, and whether BTC can hold above the $75k cost line.
I just want to say: a whale’s voice ≠ you should go all in. My operational framework is—use Saylor’s signal as a macro indicator, not an entry command; if you really want to follow, wait for document confirmation + a pullback that doesn’t break the previous low before acting. 📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 31)
Shorts went from extreme crushing to continuous strengthening, with leverage rising from 71.5x to 92x, but the total volume for the day was only $43,100, indicating extremely low liquidity and an invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $87.31 $73.46 $13.85
4 hours $336.82 $322.97 $13.85
12 hours $32,800 $451.56 $32,300
24 hours $43,100 $462.97 $42,600
The 1-4 hour volume was insufficient at $337, considered invalid; shorts violently reversed at 71.5x leverage over 12 hours, with volume soaring to $32,300; shorts slightly increased to 92x over 24 hours, liquidations at $42,600 versus longs at $462.97, totaling $43,100. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for 76%, with a moderately high concentration. Short leverage rose mildly from 71.5x to 92x, indicating a mild squeeze momentum, but the total daily volume of only $43,100 reflects extremely low liquidity and an invalid market, offering no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; this token has very poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Waller's hawkish tone reignites rate hike expectations, Bitcoin's high-level oscillation strengthens its linkage with gold, and a $13 trillion asset management giant accelerates its crypto expansion—three forces reshaping the market landscape within the same time window.
🏛️ Waller Turns Hawkish: Rate Hike Probability Soars to 60%
On August 28 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. He mentioned "inflation" 25 times, clearly stating that U.S. inflation remains "too high," and if inflation does not fall "fast enough," "there is still work to do." Although Waller emphasized "do not interpret today's speech as forward guidance," the market quickly digested his hawkish signals—the probability of a September rate hike surged from about 35% before the meeting to 60%; the two-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points intraday to 4.33%; the dollar index closed up 0.6%. Former Fed Vice Chair Brainard commented that this statement "seems to be looking for a reasonable basis for a rate hike." Waller sent the loudest hawkish signal with a "quiet" speech.
₿ BTC High-Level Oscillation: Strengthened Linkage with Gold, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin briefly surpassed $81,000 this week, then retreated to oscillate at a high level between $78,000 and $79,000; international gold prices simultaneously approached $4,700/oz. The common source of strength for both assets points to the revaluation of fiat credit triggered by U.S. Treasury debt surpassing $40 trillion. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold has risen above 50%. Over the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a record $7 billion in inflows. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously.
🏦 Schwab Adds SOL, AVAX, and LINK: Crypto Expansion by a $13 Trillion Giant
On August 27, financial services giant Charles Schwab, with $13 trillion in assets under management, announced plans to add Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Chainlink (LINK) trading services to the Schwab Crypto platform in the coming months. Schwab Crypto launched in May 2026 and previously only supported Bitcoin and Ethereum. As one of the largest U.S. retail brokers moves from "testing the waters" to "expansion," the boundary between traditional finance and crypto is rapidly dissolving.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Waller paves the way for a September rate hike with "still work to do," hawkish tone confirmed; Bitcoin and gold strengthen together under the macro narrative of U.S. debt surpassing $40 trillion, with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Schwab expands from BTC/ETH to SOL, AVAX, and LINK, accelerating traditional financial institutions' crypto layout. OKB contract liquidations totaled only $43,100 for the day, reflecting extremely low liquidity and an invalid market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes—capital is rapidly concentrating in leading assets. When central bank tone, macro narratives, and institutional expansion converge in the same time window—the market is repricing September in the clearest way. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK $BTC THE BIGGER STORY ISN'T $80K, IT'S WHERE THE MONEY IS COMING FROM
Bitcoin reclaiming $80K gets everyone's attention.
But the more important development may be the continued institutional participation behind the move.
August spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have crossed $3B, showing that demand for BTC isn't coming exclusively from short-term crypto traders.
And that matters because Bitcoin's market narrative is changing.
For years, BTC was primarily treated as a speculative asset within the crypto market.
Now, more investors are placing it in a much broader conversation:
Inflation. Currency debasement. Fiscal policy. Global liquidity. Monetary protection.
That's where the comparison with gold becomes interesting.
Gold has historically been used as a store of value when confidence in fiat currencies or traditional financial systems weakens.
Bitcoin offers a different version of the same idea — digitally native, globally transferable and scarce by design.
But Bitcoin still has something gold doesn't:
Extreme volatility.
So calling BTC “digital gold” shouldn't mean calling it a risk-free safe haven.
It means the market is increasingly testing whether Bitcoin can serve as a long-term monetary hedge alongside traditional assets.
The next phase will be about proving that demand.
If BTC can remain above $80K while institutional flows continue, the market may begin treating this level as a new foundation rather than another temporary resistance zone.
But if flows weaken and price quickly falls back below the level, that would suggest the market still needs more time to establish higher support.
That's why I'm not focused only on the next price target.
I'm watching the relationship between price and capital.
Strong price with weak demand deserves caution.
Strong demand with stable price can indicate absorption.
And strong demand combined with a confirmed breakout is where the bigger trend becomes much more convincing.
Bitcoin doesn't have to replace gold to succeed. Is the September rate hike script flipped just like that?
The script for a September rate hike reversed just like that?
The probability of a 25 basis point hike in September on CME Fedwatch has surged to 57%, while it was only 39.9% a week ago?
This sudden explosion in rate hike expectations, isn't it all triggered by Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole?
The 2% inflation target was nailed down as a hard indicator by him, leaving no room for negotiation?
The 12-month PCE reached 3.7%, and the 6-month even soared to 4.1%, isn't that miles away from the target?
He then decisively said the economy is not weak at all?
AI is driving corporate investment, S&P 500 profits up 20% in a year, unemployment steady at 4.1%, isn't that clearly saying "I dare to hike rates, the economy can handle it"?
Last week the market was buzzing about rate cuts, this week it suddenly flips to rate hikes, isn't the speed of rate expectation reversal faster than flipping a page?
For risk assets like $BTC, rising US dollar interest rates naturally mean short-term passive drainage pressure?
But is it really so bearish to the point of complete pessimism?
At the craziest points of previous rate hike expectations, wasn't it always a golden window for BTC to jump in and position?
After the market rushes in, won't the wind direction change to a whole new scene?
September 16 is the final day to find out, shouldn't we spend the remaining half month less chasing hype and more focusing on core data?
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 $ETH $ZEC Bitcoin institutional story used to be simple: ETF buy price goes up adoption headlines follow. But there's a second engine that's been running just as hard public companies stacking BTC on their balance sheets. And that engine is now sputtering. The Playbook That Powered It The model was straightforward: raise capital buy Bitcoin let BTC appreciate watch the stock re-rate higher. Dozens of companies copied Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) approach funding purchases through debt and share issua$BTC THE MONETARY HEDGE THESIS IS GETTING HARDER TO IGNORE
Bitcoin reclaiming the $80K area is important, but the bigger story may be happening underneath the price.
August spot ETF inflows have surpassed $3B, showing that institutional demand remains an important part of Bitcoin's market structure.
And this changes the conversation around BTC.
Bitcoin is no longer being viewed only as a high-growth crypto asset.
Increasingly, investors are comparing it with traditional stores of value such as gold.
The reason is simple:
When concerns about currency debasement, fiscal deficits, inflation or long-term monetary stability increase, investors naturally start looking for assets with limited supply.
Gold has played that role for centuries.
Bitcoin is attempting to build a digital version of that thesis.
But there is an important distinction.
Bitcoin is still far more volatile than gold.
A monetary hedge doesn't necessarily mean a safe asset.
BTC can attract institutional capital while still experiencing brutal corrections.
That's why I think the real test isn't whether Bitcoin can reach another round number.
The bigger test is whether sustained institutional demand can continue absorbing supply through volatility.
If ETF demand remains strong while BTC holds above $80K, the market could gradually shift from viewing $80K as resistance to treating it as a new base.
That would make the next move much more interesting.
And if Bitcoin continues strengthening while gold remains relevant as a defensive asset, we could be watching the early stages of a broader change in how investors think about monetary hedges.
BTC doesn't need to replace gold tomorrow.
It simply needs to continue proving that there is a place for a scarce digital asset within the global capital market.
That's the thesis I'm watching.
**Gold represents the traditional hedge.
Bitcoin represents the digital experiment.
Institutional flows are testing whether the experiment can scale.**
$BTC Yi Lihua: A new bull market is about to begin, and on-chain finance, especially stocks, opens up imagination
Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital, recently spoke out, calling on the market to break free from internal industry conflicts and refocus on industrial innovation. He judges that a new bull market is approaching, with on-chain finance, particularly stock tokenization, opening up a new imaginative space for this market cycle. At the same time, the AI sector also holds huge opportunities.
Bullish logic: Real-world asset tokenization is an important narrative for on-chain finance. Mapping U.S. stocks and equity assets onto the blockchain enables 24/7 trading and borderless circulation, breaking down barriers between traditional capital markets and the crypto world. Once widely implemented, it will bring traditional incremental capital into the market. Not only native crypto assets, but real-world equity assets will become the new main storyline.
Personal view: The narrative space is large, but it is still in the early stage.
Stock tokenization still faces many practical obstacles such as regulatory compliance, asset custody, and legal confirmation of rights. It is a long-term narrative, and large-scale performance and market gains are unlikely to be realized in the short term. The bull market judgment from industry leaders is more from the perspective of the industrial cycle and does not mean the market will immediately surge unilaterally. The current market is still directly influenced by Federal Reserve policies and ETF capital flows.
From a practical standpoint, on-chain RWA and stock tokenization can be considered mid-to-long-term sectors to watch, but do not heavily bet solely based on a bull market statement. Bull markets also develop through fluctuations and will still experience multiple deep corrections along the way. $ETH Ethereum Real-Time Market
Current Price: $2,464 (Coinglass 06:51 $2,461.63, approx. +0.6% in 24h; MEXC 04:20 delayed $2,505.30 / OKX daily $2,513.56 is an early snapshot not taken; cross-exchange real-time median $2,462–2,465)
Intraday Range: $2,444.68–$2,519.00 (OKX daily; today’s Asian session high 2,519 did not reach last night’s 2,534, low 2,444.68 near current price)
Market Cap: ~ $29.72 billion (120.68M × 2,464), approx. 10.8% dominance
Volume: 24h spot $220.15M (MEXC single exchange data) + total ~$8.54B (CNBC Africa), volume declined in Asian session, no expansion
Sentiment: Fear & Greed 68 Greedy (Alternative same frame 68/100); daily RSI ~70.8 still overbought (Bitget 70.84 / CoinDesk 75.59 warning); 4H RSI 52 neutral, MACD green bars shrinking above zero line, 1H MACD below zero line opening again, Bollinger middle band 2,508 gained then lost
Technical Structure: Below 2490–2500 watershed → new friction zone 2444–2464 vs strong resistance 2530–2547/2550
Capital and Ecosystem (relative to BTC differences)
Spot ETF: 8/28 (US Eastern) +102.18 million USD (10 consecutive inflows, ETHA alone 83.79 million); BTC 8/28 first net outflow -201.9 million background, ETH ETF still inflowing, relatively strong and unbroken
On-chain: Major liquidation price 1,854.30 far from current price by 610; Coinglass broke 2,356 mainstream CEX long liquidation intensity 1.274 billion USD; last night 2,418 spike cleaned chasing longs; exchange reserves 6.28M ETH (down 18% since June), staking >42 million ETH supply tight narrative ongoing
Macro: Wash hawkish → September rate hike probability 57.5% (some sources mistranslated 91% as cut, use your previous 57.5%); CLARITY Act Senate vote 9/15; DXY 98.65; spot trading volume at 16th percentile this year, flows alone questionable
Quality: High short squeeze proportion (futures volume down 70% from June peak), but ETF August inflow near 1.5 billion stronger than BTC monthly outflow, ETH/BTC 0.03127 holding above 0.031
Today (Monday Asian-European session → US session restart) scenarios and ideas
Baseline (high probability): 2,444–2,490 friction, hold 2,444 then grind 2,464–2,480; rebound 2,490 not broken continue short pressure
Rebound follow-up: 1H close above 2,490 target 2,530→2,547→2,550; failure to reclaim 2,490 all rebounds are opportunities to reduce positions (daily RSI 70.8 overbought)
Pullback follow-up: 4H close below 2,444 target 2,410→2,344; daily close below 2,300 then deep washout at high level, wait for 2,122
Spot/Mid-term: 2,300–2,400 hold for small position dip buy (single ≤5%, downgrade overbought), daily close below 2,300 pause adding, wait for 2,122; no reduction logic at 3,000 unchanged
Contracts: 2,480–2,490 stagnation light short (stop loss 2,500, target 2,444) leverage ≤2x; pullback 2,444–2,464 stabilize light long (stop loss 2,430, target 2,490); no chasing before US session restart
Key Observation Windows
2,490–2,500 1H close reclaim? (failure confirms yesterday’s watershed turned resistance, structure returns to 2,444–2,490 box)
2,444–2,464 4H hold? (loss 2,444→2,410 deep wash, last night 2,418 warning)
2,410–2,450 original new watershed 4H close hold? (loss this zone → 2,344)
2,300 psychological level daily close test? (test triggers ETF 10 consecutive inflow bottom test)
8/29 ETH ETF final value (Monday US Eastern release) whether 10 consecutive inflows continue (Biturai +102 million vs Farside -164.6 million source conflict pending liquidation)
Monday US session restart + September rate hike probability 57.5% pricing to choose side, 2,534 four failures then back to 2,464 is washout or mid-level shift
⚠️ Objective market analysis not investment advice. 2464 is your calibration anchor (Coinglass 2461.63 same frame), daily RSI 70.8 still overbought + 8/29 tested 2,534 four failures, today fell back below 2,490, 4H close below 2,444 counts as true break of friction zone, stop loss relaxed 50–60% more than usual.
Quick summary: ETH 2.444/2.464/2.490/2.530 | Asian session touched 2519 fell back 2464 lost 2490–2500 watershed, 2444–2490 new box, 2530–2547 four failures, 2550 200-week SMA ultimate resistance, daily RSI 70.8 overbought, ETF 8/29 10 consecutive inflows pending final value check. $ETH The fundamentals are like a diet meal, while the market is a buffet.
Wash's phrase "inflation first" smashed $480 million in leveraged losses, with $BTC free-falling from 81,400 to 76,800. Now $BTC is pretending to stand back at 79,000, but ETFs have a net outflow of 200 million, ending a nine-day winning streak—institutions are exiting, retail investors are gambling on the 80k-81k resistance level.
$ETH returned to 2,460, with ETFs seeing a net inflow of 100 million and 10 consecutive days of positive flow. Funds are clearly shifting from BTC. But between 2,490-2,500, there are piled-up 10x long and short positions, turning it into a casino game. Wash's panic also caused $ETH to drop significantly; the rebound is weak, and now it depends on BTC's mood.
ZEC violently surged from 600 to 880, then after ETF launch pulled back to 800 and bounced back again, also riding on the first US ZEC spot product ZCSH. Retail investors are ecstatic, saying "this time there are fundamentals." But the previous high of 880 is the real threshold; a volume breakout could push it to 1,000, with an ultimate target of 1,100. However, this coin historically rises fast and falls slowly; those chasing longs near 800 know well that a high bounce means a hard fall, and being slow means standing guard at the peak.
$UNI surged 16% in one day back to $5, with retail investors shouting about a DeFi revival. Essentially, it's about protocol fee burn deflation—4.64 million UNI burned in 90 days, and Robinhood Chain generated 20 billion in trading volume over two months. The logic is indeed stronger than before, but the lifeblood of altcoins is in BTC's hands, and the trapped positions above $5 are as dense as a spider web.Many people enter the digital currency market because they are attracted by stories of "quick wealth creation." Online, you can see cases of returns of several or even dozens of times, with 24-hour uninterrupted market trends, as if opportunities are everywhere. But only by being truly involved do you understand: this market has never lacked short-term get-rich-quick legends, yet it's hard to retain profits for most people. The market can create paper profits, but human nature, capital structure, and external macro factors constantly erode ordinary people's gains. 1. The Market Has Completely Changed: The Era of Retail Investors Moves to Institutional Competition A few years ago, the crypto market was dominated by retail investors, geeks, and whales, driven by community sentiment and sector narratives. But by 2026, the entire market landscape has fundamentally changed. Represented by US spot ETFs, institutional funds have deeply entered the market, and the pricing of BTC and ETH is largely influenced by ETF inflows and outflows, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policies. Macro liquidity has become the baton hanging high above the market. Inflation data and official speeches can easily rewrite short-term market trends. The current market is divided into two layers: one layer is leading assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, where institutional funds can continuously allocate funds with ample liquidity and trends tied to global risk assets; the other layer is a large number of altcoins and MEME coins, still a stock game driven by speculative capital and whale traffic, driving pulse surges with the goal of completing chip distribution. A very practical change: broad-based bull markets are becoming less common, and structural differentiation has become the norm. The large-cap index rebounded, with more than half of the small coins underperforming the mainstream, many of them$PUMP PUMP 0.0046, buybacks happen daily, but the price still didn't hold.
Pump.fun had a revenue of $11.52 million last week, ranking fourth across all protocols. The smart contract uses half of the fees for buyback and burn, burning about $5.52 million weekly. The cumulative buyback and burn has exceeded $429 million, burning about 28.6% of the circulating supply. Jupiter also holds 1.6 billion PUMP tokens, worth $5 million. Annualized revenue is $458 million, with a market cap just over $1 billion, valuing it at 4x.
The fundamentals look good, but the price dropped from 0.0051 to 0.0046, a 10% decline. SAR=0.004966 is overhead, EMA21=0.004758 has been broken down, only EMA55=0.004547 is supporting from below. RSI6=36.6, KDJ's J value is 27.8—short term it is indeed oversold. But oversold doesn't mean the downtrend has stopped. August revenue is expected to be $45 million, up 36% from July. The last time revenue exceeded $40 million, PUMP rose to 0.0087. However, before the revenue data is released, the market may still be cautious.
Watching the market with no position doesn't mean not understanding it, just not wanting to bet on direction at a critical point. The anxious ones are those who chased above 0.005 and are now worried if it will continue to fall tomorrow.
Comment below, did you sell or hold this round of PUMP? 🫡$HYPE HYPE 80.66, down 3%, unrelated to the overall market, it's the unlocking speaking.
This week, HYPE unlocking amount reaches as high as $820 million, about 9.91 million tokens. On August 29, a batch of 141,800 tokens worth about $1.2 billion was unlocked, and on September 6, another wave of 99,200 tokens worth about $800 million is coming.
Hyperliquid has not been idle—on August 26, AQAv2 was just activated, using USDC reserves' yield for HYPE buyback and burn. But the buyback speed may not keep up with the unlocking speed. SAR=84.086 is pressing overhead, EMA21=82.185 has been broken down, only EMA55=79.253 is supporting below. RSI6=29.61, KDJ's J value is 16.25, short-term is oversold. But oversold does not mean the decline has stopped; the selling pressure from unlocking has not been fully digested.
Every time before unlocking, the price is pumped to attract followers, then slowly sold off after unlocking. This script has played out several times with HYPE.
Watching the market with no position does not mean not understanding the market, just not wanting to bet on direction amid the supply flood. The anxious ones are those who chased above 84 and are now hesitating whether to cut losses.
Comment below, did you leave or stay during this HYPE wave? 🫡$XRP XRP 1.382, at the 1.38 level, some are buying, some are selling, and no one is yielding.
Analyst Ali Martinez said that about 3.2 billion XRP are changing hands between 1.35 and 1.38, which is one of the largest demand zones on the URPD chart. Ripple is also taking action—on August 29, it announced the four-phase quantum-resistant upgrade plan for the XRP Ledger, aiming to complete the migration by 2028. CoinDesk reported that Ripple's Senior Director of Engineering, Ayo Akinyele, personally spoke about this. On August 31, Ripple recruited financial executive Joseph Thompson from the London Metal Exchange. Brad Garlinghouse also said that Ripple's revenue could more than double this year.
There is plenty of news, but the price is still stuck here. SAR=1.432 is overhead, EMA21=1.401 is also pressing down, and only EMA55=1.378 is supporting from below. RSI6=37.09, KDJ's J value is 23.26—short term it is indeed oversold, but oversold does not mean the downtrend has stopped. The price bounced back each time it touched 1.37, but each rebound's high point is lower. It can't break through 1.70, nor drop below 1.38, and has been sideways for almost three weeks.
At this level, holders want to exit but hesitate, and those wanting to enter hesitate seeing so many positives but no price movement. Watching the market empty-handed doesn't mean not understanding it, just not wanting to bet on direction in a stalemate.
Comment below, did you exit or hold during this XRP wave? 🫡When Anthropic's IPO timeline was spotlighted, what I saw was not a bell-ringing celebration but a deep foundation pit support diagram — this building is finally going to expose its underground load-bearing structure to the sun. On a construction site, the worst thing is not complicated blueprints, but renderings that look too perfect while the reinforcement inside the load-bearing walls only meets the minimum standards.
In the construction industry, I've seen too many projects with renderings beautiful enough to win awards, but once the scaffolding is removed, even the settlement joints are not left according to regulations. That's exactly what an IPO is: the renderings are taken back, and the structural calculation reports are reviewed one by one. The market is now discussing valuations from $1 trillion to $2 trillion, but to me, that's just the most attractive target line in the design brief. A $30 trillion potential market? That’s more like the master plan on the overall site map — planning to cross three rivers, but the riverbed survey for the first river hasn't even been completed yet. When the blueprints are submitted for approval, structural engineers will take a red pen and mark line by line: Is your revenue quality really using C60 concrete? For computing costs, is the reinforcement steel skimped on? Customer concentration means the entire building's live load is pressing on the same column network; when wind vibration occurs, the floor slabs tremble first. These are the questions that must be answered before the foundation pit inspection — not whether the facade looks good, but how deep the basement’s anti-floating piles have been driven.
Actually, what investors should focus on is not the proposal booklet, but the "concealed works acceptance records" in the construction logs. Revenue quality is like the density of concrete; a shiny surface is useless — core drilling samples reveal all honeycombing and roughness. Cost calculation is the amount of reinforcement steel per square meter — the reinforcement ratio in load-bearing walls determines how many levels of earthquake the building can withstand and how high the capital expenditure tower crane can lift. Customer concentration is more straightforward, like placing the entire water tank at one end of the roof; normally no problem, but when lateral forces hit, the nodes on that entire floor yield first. As for arrangements allowing some old shareholders to exit early while others are locked for 180 days, it reminds me of the "core tube first, podium building later" in construction organization design. If the pouring sequence is disrupted, shrinkage cracks will run up from the transfer floor. The lock-up period is the curing age of different components; if formwork is removed too early, the concrete hasn't reached design strength and the walls will crack. Old shareholders leaving early is like dismantling the bottom formwork ahead of time, leaving those below to assess the floor slab’s load-bearing capacity themselves.
As for XAMZN, it is the established landmark building next door. The new building will excavate a deep foundation pit within its red line; retaining piles, dewatering wells, support beams — each affects the foundation response of the neighboring building. The market’s appetite for Anthropic essentially depends on whether Amazon’s building’s cloud base can provide sufficient power and water capacity for the new building. If computing costs can't be reduced, no matter how tall you build, the annual elevator electricity bills and cooling station energy consumption will eat through the profit statement. I’m watching that schedule — filing after Labor Day, roadshow mid-September, listing late September to early October. This is a typical rush schedule. In construction terms, rushing the schedule is not a skill; delivering on time without the building collapsing is. See, the white paper is just a blueprint; the pile static load test before pouring is the only criterion that determines whether this building can stand.
There is a saying on construction sites — "All miracles soaring into the sky ultimately come back to the ±0.000 elevation issue." Before the foundation pit passes inspection, any praise about height is just noise before pouring. #anthropicipoupdate Account Position Divergence Radar
Account ratio answers who has more accounts, position ratio answers who holds more weight; these two things should not be mixed.
$DOGE account numbers have already tilted towards the long side, but the scale of top positions has not followed. The current divergence comes from quantity and weight. Price and positions increased in 15 minutes, leverage risk exposure is increasing during this upward movement. Until the top position ratio returns above 1, the long account advantage remains an incomplete consensus.
$ZEC all accounts and top accounts are biased short, but the scale of top positions is biased long; account direction and position weight are opposite. Price fell and positions reduced, risk exposure is contracting, so it cannot be directly written as new shorts. Later, stop counting accounts and directly monitor whether the top position weight is repairing towards the short side.
$SUI there is a misalignment between long and short ratios; number of accounts, top accounts, and top positions cannot yet be combined into one conclusion. Price and positions are rising synchronously, confirming that risk exposure expands with the rise. When the metrics are not aligned, first observe which side the top positions converge to, then see if the price responds.From "Digital Gold" to "Yield-Generating Asset": CORE Institutional Edition Launches, Comparing Bitcoin's Long-Term Value and Short-Term Limitations
⚠️This article is for industry information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice
Recently, CORE launched an institutional solution targeting professional capital, focusing on compliant BTC staking and lstBTC liquidity services, specifically connecting custodial institutions, asset management companies, and family offices. Objectively analyzing the long-term value and short-term expectations of this news.
Long-Term Positive Logic
1. Directly addresses core institutional pain points: Many institutions hold BTC long-term in cold wallets, lacking compliant channels to generate yield. CORE collaborates with leading custodians like BitGo and Hex Trust, allowing assets to remain within the custody system without transfer, using time-locked staking to generate BTC yield without cross-chain wrapping into WBTC. This mature yield solution is expected to increase traditional capital's willingness to allocate to Bitcoin.
2. Completes the BTCFi narrative system. Bitcoin has long been viewed mainly as a digital store of value with limited financial application scenarios. After institutional tools are implemented, BTC can participate in staking, lending, and liquidity certificate issuance, further broadening Bitcoin's acceptance in traditional finance.
3. Optimizes chip structure. Institutional holders no longer rely solely on buying low and selling high for profit; stable staking yields will encourage long-term funds to reduce short-term selling, potentially easing spot selling pressure in the mid to long term.
Short-Term Constraints to View Rationally
1. Institutional business implementation involves a long cycle. Risk control reviews, system integration, and fund strategy adjustments often take months; large capital inflows will not occur immediately upon product launch, so the positive impact has a clear time lag.
2. The core drivers of Bitcoin's market remain USD liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, ETF funds, and overseas regulatory policies. BTCFi is a derivative narrative that can boost the market but is unlikely to independently drive price strength against macro trends.
3. Competition in the sector continues; many BTC layer-2 and staking solutions exist, and institutional funds will diversify, making it difficult to concentrate all capital in a single ecosystem.
Impact on the $CORE Ecosystem
Relying on the ecosystem's dual staking mechanism, BTC holders seeking higher yields need to stake CORE together, which is expected to continuously generate token demand in the long term.
Key signals to monitor going forward: official cooperation announcements from leading asset management and custody institutions; steady growth in on-chain native staked BTC. Without real on-chain growth, market gains are likely just short-term sentiment pulses.
Trading Thoughts
Without a clear easing turning point in macro liquidity, it is unwise to rely on a single ecosystem's positive news to bet on a unilateral surge.
Over a longer cycle, the continuously improving institutional BTCFi infrastructure is an important foundational buildup for the next bull market, representing a gradual and progressive long-term logic. CORE's market performance is closely tied to BTCFi sector heat; continue to watch official cooperation announcements and on-chain data changes.
$BTC $CORE #CORE #Bitcoin #BTCFiAmazon provides AI for the government—who do they choose and who do they not?
AWS GovCloud offers a series of AI models to U.S. government agencies. On the surface, it's a product launch, but in reality, it's a filtering gate.
Strict requirements from government clients: code must be auditable, data must not leave the country, and the supply chain must be transparent. These three directly exclude $OPENAI and Claude—closed-source models don’t even disclose weights, so the government cannot feed sensitive data into them.
Therefore, AWS can only offer small-scale open-source models, possibly fine-tuned versions of Mistral or Llama, or commercially licensed models released by certain academic institutions.
My judgment: this combination targets the niche market of "compliant AI." For large model vendors, losing government contracts is not fatal, but losing the AWS channel means losing competitiveness on the B2B side.
Small AI companies may take this opportunity to enter the government procurement catalog and could become the biggest beneficiaries of this wave of compliance-driven dividends. BTCFi Four Kings Ultimate Review: Steady, Hardcore, Elastic, Ambush — Who Is the True Leader of the Bull Market?
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article only outlines the track logic and project architecture and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please conduct independent analysis and participate rationally.
The Bitcoin ecosystem bull market wave continues to advance, with many investors confusing STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY as all BTCFi track targets.
In fact, they are completely different levels, logics, and capital narratives.
These four projects respectively represent the four top BTCFi schools: Native Steady, Full-Chain Infrastructure, Inscription Elasticity, and Underlying Security. Their underlying architecture, asset risks, growth potential, and capital logic differ vastly.
1. Core Positioning of the Four Schools: Thoroughly Distinguish the Hierarchy
STX | Native Steady School: The Orthodox Bitcoin L2 Benchmark
Stacks is the earliest and most orthodox L2 infrastructure in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
It does not alter Bitcoin’s base layer; relying on PoX consensus + a dedicated programming language, it realizes on-chain smart contracts on Bitcoin and builds a complete BTC-denominated DeFi system using sBTC.
Advantages: Orthodox ecosystem, high institutional recognition, most stable price trend.
Drawbacks: Not EVM compatible, slower ecosystem expansion, limited explosive potential.
Positioning: BTCFi defensive leader, pursuing long-term steady compound growth.
CORE | All-Purpose Infrastructure School: Bitcoin’s Only Independent L1 Public Chain
Biggest market misconception: treating CORE as a Bitcoin Layer 2.
CORE is an independent Layer 1 public chain, not L2!
It relies on exclusive Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, leveraging Bitcoin’s entire network hash power as a security base, fully EVM compatible, truly a "Bitcoin Supergrid."
Coverage: BTC staking, institutional lstBTC liquid staking, SatPay payments, lending, RWA real-world assets; the only BTCFi leader with a complete commercial revenue system.
Entering cash flow profitability era in 2026, with real business, real institutional demand, and real buyback expectations.
Positioning: BTCFi aggressive infrastructure leader, largest growth potential, most hardcore narrative.
MERL | Inscription Elasticity School: Dedicated Channel for Bitcoin Native Assets
Merlin Chain focuses on ZK Layer 2 + inscription ecosystem, precisely solving BRC20, Ordinals asset congestion, and high gas fees.
All ecosystem activity, hype, and capital are tied to Bitcoin inscription cycles.
Advantages: Extremely strong bull market elasticity, highest gains during hype.
Drawbacks: Market highly dependent on sector sentiment, no independent narrative, very cyclical.
Positioning: BTCFi cyclical speculative target, riding waves and hype.
BABY | Underlying Security School: Bitcoin Security Leasing Dark Horse
Unique and completely differentiated track.
Does not do DeFi, trading, or applications; only one thing:
Zero-risk staking of Bitcoin native assets and security leasing for the entire PoS public chain network.
User BTC remains in native addresses throughout, no custody, no cross-chain, no wrapping; BTCFi’s highest security model.
Earns continuous income by "renting out Bitcoin’s top-level security," representing the most fundamental and essential public chain infrastructure narrative.
Positioning: Ultra-long-term ambush-type underlying dark horse, highest odds.
2. Asset Security Hierarchy (The Most Important BTCFi Watershed)
✅ BABY | Ceiling-Level Security
BTC remains in native UTXO addresses throughout, pure cryptographic staking, zero custody, zero wrapping, zero bridge risk, absolutely secure assets.
✅ CORE | Non-Custodial Hardcore Security
BTC locked with Bitcoin mainnet timelocks, principal never leaves BTC chain, no institutional custody risk, only data relay synchronization, extremely low risk.
⚠️ STX | Consortium Multi-Signature Mode
Asset security depends on node consortium; although there is a penalty mechanism, theoretical risk of consortium misconduct exists.
⚠️ MERL | MPC Custody Mode
Assets require custody mapping; native BTC leaves mainnet, exposing institutional counterparty risk.
3. Value Capture Logic: Determines Bull Market Multiples
STX
Pure ecological consumption + BTC-denominated staking yield, value slowly raised through ecosystem expansion, steady but slow.
CORE
Dual staking lockup + 2026 cash flow realization
lstBTC institutional service fees, cross-border payments, on-chain fees, future revenue buybacks
— The only BTCFi leader transitioning from "storytelling" to "real earnings"
MERL
Inscription ecosystem fees + 50% profit buybacks, market fully follows sector bull and bear cycles, high elasticity, weak sustainability.
BABY
Continuous income from network-wide public chain security leasing fees, unique track, long-term value severely underestimated.
4. Ultimate Summary: Four Targets Suit Different Investors
✅ Seeking stability, long-term holding, avoiding volatility: choose STX
Bitcoin native orthodox, heavy institutional holdings, most stable trend.
✅ Riding the bull market main rise, earning growth dividends, focusing on fundamentals: choose CORE
BTCFi’s only L1 infrastructure + only cash flow track, core mainline of this bull market.
✅ Speculating on hype, capturing waves, playing cyclical markets: choose MERL
When inscription hype arrives, elasticity crushes the field.
✅ Low-position ambush, betting on underlying narrative breakout, super high odds: choose BABY
Network’s safest BTC staking model, underlying infrastructure dark horse.
The true profit logic of the bull market:
Not randomly buying BTCFi, but selecting the mainline that fits your style.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFiThe BTCFi race is fiercely contested—can Core DAO truly stand out?
⚠️ Risk Warning: The content is for industry logic discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; participate rationally and control risks strictly.
Trillions in dormant BTC assets are seeking yield channels, and BTCFi has become the core theme of this bull market. The field is crowded with contenders: Babylon, STX, Merlin, and Core DAO each follow different paths. Many community members ask: amid intense competition, does Core have a chance to break through?
First, understand the landscape: it’s unlikely that a single giant will dominate the BTCFi track; the future will likely be segmented, with different solutions serving different capital needs.
Babylon positions itself as a pure BTC re-staking tool with a simple model—users can rent out native BTC to earn network security yields without needing additional tokens, favored by minimalistic Bitcoin holders. However, its downside is clear: it’s just an infrastructure protocol without an independent smart contract public chain, unable to support lending, payments, RWA, and other complete ecosystems, inherently limiting its potential.
Stacks, as a veteran Bitcoin L2, has a solid institutional foundation. Staking STX to earn BTC yields forms a stable narrative. But a fatal bottleneck is its incompatibility with EVM; its unique programming language raises developer barriers, making it hard to capture Ethereum’s vast DeFi overflow capital. Its token has no hard cap, leading to long-term inflation that suppresses its valuation ceiling.
Merlin Chain focuses on ZK-Rollup Bitcoin Layer 2, supports EVM, and attracts large retail traffic through BRC20 and inscriptions. But its ecosystem heavily depends on hype cycles, lacks a native non-custodial BTC staking system, and most assets rely on cross-chain wrapping, making it hard to appeal to large Bitcoin institutional funds seeking extreme security.
In contrast, Core DAO follows an independent L1 public chain route, possessing a unique differentiated moat in the track. Based on Satoshi Plus consensus, it leverages Bitcoin’s hash power network-wide to secure the network while fully supporting EVM, allowing all Ethereum DeFi apps to migrate and deploy at low cost. Unlike various wrapped BTC solutions, Core supports native Bitcoin mainnet time-locked staking, with users holding their private keys, no cross-chain wrapping or asset transfer needed, meeting the core security demands of conservative BTC whales.
With a dual staking mechanism, pairing BTC with CORE for higher-tier yields, the b14g network has been widely implemented, continuously driving long-term CORE lock-up demand. The long-term roadmap is clear: staking infrastructure, SatPay crypto payments, DeFi, and RWA coordinated development aiming to build a complete BTCFi ecosystem loop; the token supply approaches 2.1 billion with an inflation end point, aligning with Bitcoin’s deflationary narrative.
Behind the opportunities lie unavoidable risks. The 81-year continuous block reward release means long-term inflation pressure is the biggest mid-to-long-term constraint; high-tier dual staking requires holding both BTC and CORE, posing a participation barrier for pure BTC holders. SatPay’s full public beta, ecosystem fee revenue buybacks, and other core narratives are still in the expectation phase; currently, the number of blockbuster ecosystem apps is insufficient, and TVL growth speed remains to be proven.
For Core to stand out amid fierce competition, four key inflection signals matter: continuous new highs in native BTC staked on b14g; steady user growth after SatPay’s official launch; normalized fee buyback mechanisms to hedge inflation; and attracting a large influx of external DeFi and RWA projects.
In the long run, the track’s demand naturally segments: capital seeking simple staking yields chooses Babylon; inscription and short-term speculative capital prefers Merlin; native Bitcoin developers choose Stacks. Core targets incremental capital that values BTC asset security while needing a complete EVM smart contract ecosystem.
If heavyweight products launch as scheduled and cash flow flywheels connect, Core is poised to solidify its position as the leading independent L1 BTCFi, achieving relative breakout; if ecosystem rollouts continue to delay, competition will persist long-term, making it hard to break out with a major independent rally.
Competition in this track has never been about short-term hype; the ultimate outcome depends on who first converts grand narratives into sustained on-chain demand.
Who do you think among the many BTCFi projects is most likely to become the ultimate winner? Share your thoughts in the comments.$XRP could narrow the yield gap with $SOL if the lending ecosystem on XRPL develops strongly. The native lending protocol of XRPL is being voted on by validators, opening up the possibility for users to generate income from lending activities instead of staking. This is a noteworthy direction as institutional credit demand increases. However, lending differs from staking in nature, accompanied by credit and counterparty risks. If implemented effectively, this could become a new growth driver for the $XRP ecosystem. This is a new growth momentum.Why does the $SOL ETF have an advantage over $XRP? The Solana blockchain allows staking, generating additional income from network rewards alongside the price appreciation of $SOL. This is an advantage that products like BSOL can leverage to increase their appeal to investors. Conversely, $XRP lacks a native staking mechanism, so the $XRP ETF mainly depends on price and market demand. As institutional capital increasingly focuses on performance, this difference is worth monitoring.