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I heard there was another clash between the US and Iran last night.
🛩️ What happened last night?
In the late night of August 30 Beijing time, the US military launched an airstrike on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. This was the first military action taken by the US against Iran in over a month since July 29.
Immediately after, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at US military bases in retaliation. The day before, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister had just announced the "complete closure" of the Strait of Hormuz.
📉 The market instantly exploded.
· Oil prices surged: Brent crude oil directly broke through $90 per barrel.
· Risk assets came under pressure: US stock futures fell across the board, BTC briefly plunged nearly 0.7%, dropping to as low as $77,000.
💣 This drop was caused by two overlapping factors.
First, the geopolitical conflict raised risk aversion, prompting funds to flee first. Second, the hawkish speech by Federal Reserve Chair Wash at Jackson Hole last Friday was still reverberating—he clearly stated that inflation remains too high, hinting at possible future rate hikes. The probability of a September rate hike has jumped from 35% directly to 60%.
But BTC doesn't seem very concerned about these minor skirmishes now; it just symbolically dips and then pulls back. It's mostly institutions and experienced investors now, who won't be scared off by small incidents.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK On August 31st, Beijing time, the US-Iran situation escalated again. The US military confirmed strikes on two rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island. The US side stated that these devices might have been used to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, Iran launched missiles at US targets in Jordan, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps also stated it would retaliate against the US actions. Strictly speaking, this operation is still a limited-scale military strike, not a large-scale bombing targeting the entire territory of Iran. But the problem is that the strike site is right next to the Strait of Hormuz. This route is related to about 20% of the world's oil transport, so the market's real concern is not the destruction of two military facilities, but whether the conflict will escalate into shipping disruptions, rising oil prices, and a rebound in inflation. Why is the market reacting so sensitively? After the announcement, Brent crude briefly climbed back above $90 per barrel, WTI crude rose to around $85, both gaining more than 2%; US stock futures weakened slightly. Judging from the gains, the market has not yet priced in a "total war" scenario, but has re-added some geopolitical risk premiums. The logic behind this event's impact on the market can be simply summarized as: escalation of the US-Iran conflict → increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz → rising oil prices → inflationary pressures rebounding→ making it harder for the Fed to cut rates, and possibly even raising rates → putting pressure on global risk assets. The real trouble is that this geopolitical conflict happened just after Fed policy expectations clearly turned hawkish. Federal Reserve Chair Wash emphasized inflation risks at the Jackson Hole meeting, and the market is expected to see September$BTC currently hovers between $77,200 and $77,500, with a 24-hour drop of about 1.3%. $ETH has fallen back to around $2,400, with $SOL drops even more pronounced and short-term funds clearly starting to shrink. Looking at the overall market, total market capitalization has fallen in tandem, while BTC's market share continues to rise to nearly 60%, indicating that not all assets are falling simultaneously, but that altcoins are experiencing more obvious capital withdrawals. The core catalyst for this round of decline remains macro and geopolitical risks. The latest news shows that after the U.S. launched operations against Iran-related military targets, Iran subsequently launched missile strikes on U.S. military targets inside Jordan, quickly reassessing the risk of "energy supply disruptions." Brent crude briefly broke through $90, with a single-day gain of over 2%. Once oil prices remain high, the market's concern goes beyond the war itself, but rather: rising energy → increased inflationary pressures→ narrowing room for rate cuts→ longer high interest rates, → risk assets under pressure. Meanwhile, market expectations for the Fed's September policy have clearly turned hawkish, with the probability of a rate hike now rising to about 57%. The US dollar and US Treasury yields are both strong, naturally putting pressure on BTC, a highly volatile risk asset. So don't rush to label this decline as a new round of major drops. In the short term, I'm more focused on three positions: 📌 around 77,500: first line of defense 📌; around 76,000: the next support 📌 after breaching, 78,500–7.9$CORE 【Objective Review: Multiple Factors Behind CORE's Decline】
The decline of CORE is not due to a single negative factor but the result of multiple pressures resonating together.
First, pressure from the tokenomics side. A large amount of early tokens continue to unlock, constantly increasing market supply; CORE's consumption scenarios are limited, mostly used only for staking and governance, lacking real business-driven burn and buyback, so selling pressure persists long-term, and the token distribution structure is clearly under stress.
Second, ecosystem implementation falls short of market expectations. The project focuses on the BTC-Fi narrative with a great vision, but on-chain real locked value and active user data are weak. Many DApps are just multi-chain deployments without deep cultivation of Core, and no phenomenally successful applications have emerged. The market no longer just listens to stories but values real on-chain data, and this expectation gap has led to capital outflows.
Third, intensified competition in the sector. More players are entering the BTC-Fi sector, and similar projects are diverting market attention and funds; Core has not formed an absolute differentiated barrier.
Fourth, liquidity and overall market environment. The overall crypto market trend is weak, altcoins are generally under pressure; Core's market liquidity is insufficient, and a small number of sell orders can amplify price drops, easily causing panic selling.
An objective view: the project's fundamental narrative still exists, but in the short term, real ecosystem data, token model optimization, and protocol revenue realization need to be seen to reverse market confidence. The above is only community analysis and not investment advice.$BTC BREAKS $79K — BUT CAPITAL ISN’T DISAPPEARING
$BTC loses $79K, $ETH follows lower, and ETFs show outflows. Crypto is being repriced as rate expectations turn less favorable.
But memory-chip stocks tell a different story.
$MU, $SNDK, and AI infrastructure remain supported by structural HBM/NAND demand.
The divergence matters:
Crypto is sold on valuation.
AI is bought for real demand.
If this gap persists, the story may not be “risk-off” — but capital rotating toward tangible growth. In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has not seen a clear one-sided rally, but the defensive stance of funds is becoming clearer. BTC is mostly moving sideways, while ETH and SOL have shown more pronounced pullbacks; Meanwhile, BTC's market share continues to approach 60%, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping from 69 to 62. The market has not entered panic, but the previously rapidly expanding risk appetite is cooling down. The most important thing now is not "how much the market has fallen today," but rather: funds are withdrawing from high-beta assets toward more liquid directions, awaiting re-trading of ETFs and confirmation from a new round of macro data. 📈 BTC clearly resilient to declines, market enters defensive rotation As of 08:39 on August 31 HKT: BTC:$78,025 | 24h -0.27%
ETH：$2,433.18｜-1.18%
SOL: $102.36 | -2.87% CoinGecko Global According to API data, the total crypto market cap is about $2.613 trillion, with BTC's market share rising to 59.67%. The Fear and Greed Index further dropped from 69 to: 62|Greed The biggest feature of today's price structure is not BTC's decline, but BTC's clear outperformance of ETH and SOL. During the market correction a few days ago, SOL often took on a higher beta role; Today, SOL fell nearly ten times compared to BTC, and ETH is also noticeably weaker than BTC. Meanwhile, BTC's market share is close to 60%. This indicates the market is actively lowering its position$BTC is accumulating after a strong correction.
Bitcoin once touched $81,455 but then fell below $78K as expectations for a Fed rate hike in September increased. While the BTC ETF just ended a 9-session inflow streak, the stablecoin market rose to about $304.6B.
This is noteworthy: the money hasn't necessarily left crypto — liquidity is still within the ecosystem.
The important question now is not whether BTC will rise immediately, but whether stablecoin flows will become a new buying force.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoClearing out and running, is the AI bubble about to burst?
1. The market is rising on low volume
Although $SPY has rebounded all the way and even hit new highs, trading volume has plummeted. The current average daily volume is about 31 to 32 million, which is more than 30% lower than even Christmas or Thanksgiving days when the market was open for only half a day, marking a nearly 20-year low. A rise on low volume indicates a severe lack of buying momentum and an extremely fragile market.
2. Chip stocks no longer lead the rally
The only core engine driving the US stock market's surge over the past three years has been semiconductors $SMH and tech leaders. But in this new high, the chip sector has not led the rally at all. Without the most core mainline, this rise is like a skyscraper without a foundation.
3. The real economy can't hold up
The 10-year US Treasury yield continues to rise, the 30-year yield and mortgage rates are approaching 7%, returning to the high levels seen during the worst inflation period of 2023. High interest rates put tremendous pressure on businesses and ordinary people's wallets, posing significant fundamental risks.
4. The rate cut dream is shattered
Oil prices have been oscillating at a high level of 80-85, and could break upward again at any time, pushing inflation higher. The Federal Reserve is now stuck in a deadlock of maximum employment + inflation that won't come down: not only is a rate cut completely off the table, but rate hikes could be threatened again at any time.
5. High valuation risks are extremely high
Stop fantasizing that every pullback is a buying opportunity. Taking on high valuation or high-risk assets, like the current $IREN or $NVDA at over 200, is very dangerous. Buying now must be based on actual valuation and margin of safety; blindly chasing highs is very risky.
Appropriately reduce positions to lock in profits, hedge defensively, keep enough cash, and don't be the last one holding the bag.#$CORE Who is the project team? Step forward#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估
Two companies plan to invest $31 billion in phases by 2032 to expand flash memory capacity, targeting the incremental storage demand brought by AI.
Capacity release is a long-term process and will not immediately change the current tight supply situation; the storage price increase cycle still has room to continue.
$BTC price movement is not directly driven by this industry news and still depends on macro liquidity.
Storage-related concept tokens have seen short-term sentiment benefits, but the expansion cycle is long, and the pace of benefit realization is slow.
Long-term capacity expansion also requires caution against future overcapacity risks; do not blindly chase hot spots.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. $6.38 billion poured into gold ETFs; the tower cranes for Bitcoin spot ETFs roar in unison. This is not a rotation of funds, but two load-bearing walls undergoing load tests simultaneously on the same site. Global physical gold ETFs attracted near a ten-month peak in inflows last week, with gold prices holding at $4700, like the old church's arch stabilized by its own weight, unmoving. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is catching its breath near the rebound high, like the residual micro-vibrations of a steel-structured skyscraper after wind tunnel testing.
Citibank says futures drive the breakthrough, while physical demand in Asia is weak. Translated into construction jargon: the design institute's computer simulations have passed, but the masons have not yet arrived on site. Futures are the virtual loads on the tower crane; physical assets are the real bricks laid into the wall. Institutions are hoisting according to the blueprint, but Asian retail investors haven't pushed their brick carts yet—the construction rhythm is out of sync, but that doesn't mean the foundation has failed. The supervisor of this construction is not the central bank, but the global capital's load standards. The thickness of the load-bearing walls determines survival rates in the next earthquake.
Currently, two streams of capital are simultaneously injecting into non-sovereign assets. If gold ETFs and Bitcoin spot ETFs both attract funds, it's equivalent to driving two foundation piles of different materials into the same excavation pit: one is limestone, the other prestressed concrete. Limestone relies on end bearing, concrete on frictional side resistance—one seeks stability, the other anchoring depth. They share the same structural plane—the raft foundation of 'de-sovereignization.' Institutional allocation is like a concrete pump truck, momentum like a tower crane; you can't tell if it's design-driven or mechanical inertia, but the concrete is climbing up the conduit.
However, if capital flows diverge, the market becomes the client's final decision on the curtain wall scheme. Gold is the low-level, heavy vault; the wall itself is the load-bearing structure, with defense coming from mass and section moment of inertia. Bitcoin is the ultra-high-rise with viscous dampers, relying on a lightweight frame and active control to resist wind vibrations. High beta means high sensitivity to wind vibrations. Choosing gold is choosing the certainty of the enclosure structure; choosing Bitcoin is choosing the tension of a skyscraper rising from the ground.
And US stock token assets like XNVDA are like the pile cap connecting multiple pile heads. Its market linkage depth directly reflects the stiffness of the entire structural system—the more nodes, the less likely the whole is to disperse. If the pile cap cracks, piles and columns act independently, and the floor slabs yield before the columns.
However, the lines on the blueprint never turn into concrete by themselves. ETF fund flows are just the dynamic loads on the tower crane hook; the real structural stress is hidden in the steel reinforcement and grouting inside the walls. Either it gets poured or it cracks. #goldvsbtcetfflows$CORE is slipping away... Why I'm liquidating CORE now: A selling guide for those trapped
If you still hold CORE and are waiting for "break-even," "the next bull run at 3 or 5 dollars," or "Bitcoin-secure orthodox L2" — first read the following points before deciding whether to click "sell."
1. The price says it all: from $6 to 2 cents, a 99.6% drop
CORE's historical high was about $6.47 in February 2023; it bottomed at $0.01678 on July 28, 2026, and struggled around $0.018–0.02 by the end of August, a decline of over 99.5% from the peak.
This is not a shakeout but a three-and-a-half-year value reassessment: the market has voted with its feet, wiping out all the "Bitcoin-secure L1" premium.
2. Inflation + unlocking perpetual motion, selling pressure never ends
Total supply is 2.1 billion tokens; insiders control about 34.5% (team 15% + treasury 9.5% + reserves 10%), with a 36-month linear unlock schedule, still in concentrated release in the second half of 2026;
Staking produces new CORE daily, with no burn or forced buyback, relying purely on inflation subsidies to support APY;
The treasury's 199.5 million tokens were once pledged to borrow stablecoins and cashed out, ultimately flowing into the secondary market. Buyers are using real money to pick up free chips, causing perpetual supply-demand imbalance.
3. Liquidity drying up, exchanges are fleeing
Starting in the first half of 2026, risk control took action:
Bitget delisted CORE/USDT perpetual contracts on March 20 and removed CORE on-chain earning products on July 17;
BingX delisted CORE standard/perpetual contracts on March 19;
HTX delisted CORE/USDT perpetuals in April;
Several second-tier exchanges' spot depth shrank to million-dollar levels, with huge bid-ask spreads and large orders causing sharp price spikes.
Contract delisting is a precursor; if spot liquidity inspections fail, the next step is spot delisting. Once spot disappears from mainstream exchanges, you won't even be able to bear the slippage to "cut losses."
4. The 3/30 liquidation event: physical evidence of trust collapse
On March 29–30, 2026, CORE plunged 48%–53% in a single day; the on-chain lending protocol Colend triggered cascading liquidations, with whales preemptively selling millions of tokens, and the project team immediately closed the comment section.
No support under low liquidity + leverage death spiral means this asset no longer has normal price discovery, only "who runs fastest."
5. The narrative is patched, security is borrowed, the name is hijacked
"Secured by Bitcoin": actually BTC hash power delegation + relay reporting + DPoS, fixed 31 validators, not recognized as L2 by the Bitcoin community;
Hijacking Satoshi / Bitcoin Core: no relation to Satoshi Nakamoto or Bitcoin Core client, purely marketing parasitism;
Satoshi Plus = PoW+DPoS patchwork monster, no original breakthroughs, Stacks/Babylon have already crushed it in the BTCFi track;
SatPay "Bitcoin new bank" still in small-scale beta as of August 2026, no public merchant flow;
Over 180 DApps mostly shells, TVL dropped from peak 1 billion to a fraction, real fees can't sustain buyback promises.
6. Highly controlled token supply, retail investors have no pricing power
Top 5 on-chain addresses often hold over 80% of supply; 25 whales control nearly 90% of circulating tokens.
In July 2026, whales redeemed 440 BTC from Core, and earlier transferred 1803 BTC to Binance — real big holders are withdrawing BTC, leaving retail to hold the CORE inflation shell.
7. Domestic legal bottom line: trading itself is unprotected
China clearly defines virtual currency trading as illegal financial activity; CORE only circulates on overseas exchanges, OTC/small exchanges can shut down and freeze anytime, with no compliant legal recourse after deep losses. Self-comforting with "long-term holding" and "node interest" is naked exposure legally and liquidity-wise.
The logic of selling is not bearish on Bitcoin but bearish on CORE's value capture
It plays dead when Bitcoin rises, jumps off a cliff when Bitcoin falls; narrative relies on hijacking, security on borrowing, yield on inflation, governance on insiders, liquidity on retail catching the knife — these six traits combined make it not "temporarily undervalued" but a structurally weak asset.
Only two realistic paths:
Reduce or liquidate on rebounds, withdraw funds from highly controlled inflation tokens, recognizing loss is also stopping loss;
Continue staking to "earn rewards," but know those rewards essentially dilute your own principal, and the token price at unstaking day will be very different.
The music has stopped; those holding CORE are not winners. Whether to sell is your choice, but don't let yourself be fooled by market-disproven phrases like "Satoshi coin," "Bitcoin-secure," or "soon back to $3."
Risk warning: This article is based on public on-chain data and exchange announcements and does not constitute investment advice; virtual currency trading is illegal financial activity domestically, participation means bearing full principal loss and compliance risks. After NVDA released its earnings report, I added some more MU shares. This time, Nvidia's earnings actually gave me a pretty interesting signal.
Everyone is focused on NVDA's revenue beating expectations again and AWS adding 2 million more GPUs, but I paid more attention to one detail: NVDA's Q2 gross margin was 75%, and the Q3 guidance dropped to 74%, partly due to rising memory costs.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto The valuation logic of the crypto market is undergoing a fundamental change — gradually shifting from hype around concepts to focusing on revenue❗️💹
Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer put it bluntly: "Nowadays, except for $BTC, the value of crypto assets is increasingly measured by the same standards as stocks and bonds: revenue."
There are several turning points in this:
First, regulatory easing. The SEC lost the Ripple case, and with the new chairman in place, tokens distributing revenue to holders are no longer considered "illegal securities offerings."
Second, the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid uses 97% of its fee income to repurchase and burn $HYPE on the secondary market. Over the past year, the protocol's revenue was $871 million, with a market cap of $13.46 billion, a valuation multiple of 15x.
Grayscale also listed the 15 highest-revenue on-chain protocols; $PUMP generated $459 million in revenue, with a market cap of $456 million, a valuation multiple close to 1x. Many crypto assets with substantial revenue have valuation multiples even in the single digits.
Institutional target prices: Bernstein expects $150,000 by year-end, Standard Chartered $100,000, and possibly up to $250,000.
BTC has no cash flow and is not suitable for traditional P/E ratio valuation. It follows the "digital gold" path — priced based on scarcity, decentralization, and macro hedge narratives.
#加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年
What this news really triggered is the market's repricing of SpaceX's "AI+Starlink+Starship" revenue curve being realized earlier than expected. Morgan Stanley projects $3.5 trillion by 2040, but Musk directly cut the timeline to 2033, a huge difference in expectations; interestingly, SPCX did not surge wildly because of this, closing at $141.50 on August 28, up only 0.45% that day, with about 55.1 million shares traded, not far from the IPO price of $135.
The capital already knows the $SPCX SpaceX story is huge; what is being traded now is the "speed of realization," not the story itself. Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, with Starlink contributing $4.29 billion, already an absolute cash cow, but AI and Starship are still in heavy capital investment stages.
I actually feel this is more like the valuation anchor being raised rather than a short-term catalyst. A $300 target price implies more than doubling upside, but what the market wants next is not Musk continuing to paint a picture, but actual increases in Starship launch frequency, Starlink revenue, and AI computing power. Otherwise, the 2033 figure sounds great, but the valuation may not be willing to pay for it seven years in advance. This is starting to look more and more like the Moonwell incident from a few days ago.
Last night, Tectonic had an issue.
The attacker reportedly pumped the TONIC price by almost 100 times in about 20 minutes.
And then?
Used the TONIC that had increased 100 times as collateral.
Borrowed real money.
Currently, on-chain estimates involve about $75 million.
In the end, Cronos directly shut down the entire chain.
Now I’m starting to get a bit of PTSD from seeing small coins used as collateral 😂
Coins can be very cheap.
But if the protocol really takes that price seriously,
the loans taken out afterward are real money.
$CROETH had a pretty strong rebound last night over the weekend, surprisingly reaching as high as 2534.48, but the volume was too weak, making it hard to break through 2550. So, I cleared all ETH long positions at 2526 and 2522.25 (cost price 2428), which was quite a good gain, and successfully avoided this morning's major pullback. At that time, I opened a short position at 2528, closing it at an average price of 2509.53 for a small profit. Why did I only take 18 points and run? Mainly because I was too tired and felt uneasy shorting while sleepy. Since I made a little profit, I closed it. Unexpectedly, this morning I woke up to find the price back near 2400, so I took this opportunity to re-enter at 2404.61.
SOL last night followed the big rebounds of BTC and ETH, hovering around 107 at the high point. However, SOL's rebound was clearly weaker compared to BTC's, so I closed one-third of my base position at 106.76. After waking up, it had pulled back to around 100, giving me another chance to add to my position, which I did near 100.6.
Overall, this operation followed the market changes well. Personally, I still remain bullish. As long as it doesn't fall below 2350, I will hold and wait patiently.
The above is my personal trading experience record and does not constitute investment advice! $BTC #$ETH $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 🚨$BTC can't break through 80,000; the real thing to watch out for isn't a drop, but the chasing-up sentiment!
BTC surged from 63,600 to 81,400, rising nearly 28% in just over ten days. But after hitting 80,000, it didn't continue to break out with volume; instead, it quickly fell back to around 78,000.
At this point, the easiest illusion to have is: after such a long drop, it's finally taking off.
But the problem is, the market has shifted from "no one dares to buy" to "everyone fears missing out."
What’s even more noteworthy is ETF capital. Previously, there were nine consecutive days of net inflows exceeding $3 billion, but on August 28, there was a sudden net outflow of about $202 million.
One day of outflow can’t define the end of a bull market, but at least it shows that chasing funds around 80,000 are starting to hesitate.
So now I’m only watching two levels:
📌 77,000–78,000: Whether it can continue to hold will determine if this is a normal turnover or further weakness.
📌 80,000–81,000: Must regain volume and hold steady to truly confirm a breakout.
Holding 77,000 means there’s still a chance for the market to continue oscillating upward; if it breaks down, then look for support near 75,000.
No need to rush to call 100,000 now, nor to call a bear market just because of one pullback.
True strength isn’t about going up, but about people still buying on the way down.
Do you think the area around 80,000 this time is a shakeout or a temporary top?👇
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK 🚨With just one sentence from Wash, $BTC dropped directly from above 80,000 back to 78,000!
What’s truly worth paying attention to this time is not just BTC falling over 3,000 dollars, but the sudden change in market interest rate expectations.
After Jackson Hole, the September rate hike expectation quickly rose from about 35% to nearly 60%, with the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthening simultaneously, naturally putting pressure on risk assets.
On top of that, BTC had been rising continuously with leverage piling up; once the macro outlook changed, profit-taking and leveraged positions both triggered a sell-off, amplifying the decline.
Even more noteworthy: after nine consecutive days of net inflows into BTC ETFs, on August 28 there was the first net outflow of about 202 million dollars.
But I’m not ready to call the "bull market over" just yet.
Why?
Because it looks more like a macro shock + high-level rotation + leverage cleanup.
📌 Will ETFs continue to see net outflows?
📌 Can BTC hold around 77,000?
📌 Will Treasury yields keep rising?
📌 Can September CPI and nonfarm payrolls cool down rate hike expectations again?
80,000 can’t hold for now; 78,000 is the new battleground between bulls and bears.
If it can hold here, it might just be a deep consolidation after the rise; if 77,000 is continuously broken, the next step is to watch out for a deeper correction.
The biggest risk now isn’t picking the wrong direction, but heavily betting on a direction before confirmation.
Do you think 78,000 is an opportunity or a pause before the next drop?👇
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 On the last day of August, the market is not facing the question of "whether it can still rise," but whether this round of gains can carry funds into September.
As of now, $BTC is around $78,600, up about 25% from approximately $62,800 at the end of July; $ETH has risen about 30% this month, and $SOL is closer to 45%.
But price increases are just the result; the capital structure is the focus for tomorrow.
The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $202 million on August 28, ending a streak of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows. However, over the last five trading days combined, there was still a net inflow of about $925 million.
So I won’t judge institutional withdrawal based on a single day of outflow, nor will I assume a continued one-sided rise in September just because of a strong monthly close.
Tomorrow, watch for three signals:
Whether BTC can continue to hold $77,000
Whether ETF buying resumes after the US stock market opens
Whether ETH and SOL can maintain relative strength, rather than funds returning only to BTC
If BTC holds $77,000 and ETF outflows do not expand, this looks more like normal turnover after a rise; if the price breaks key levels and ETF outflows continue, August profits may start to turn into selling pressure in September.
The August monthly candle for the crypto market will officially close at 08:00 Beijing time on September 1. In the last 24 hours, do you think funds will choose to lock in profits or start positioning for September early? After the hawkish impact of Jackson Hole, the market structure has changed significantly:
BTC's 90-day correlation with Nasdaq dropped from 60% to 33%, while its correlation with gold rose to over 50%.
Previously, BTC was considered a high-volatility tech risk asset, moving with US stocks; now some institutions are starting to view it as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation.
The medium- to long-term narrative is shifting, but in the short term, it remains suppressed by Federal Reserve interest rates. With US Treasury yields rising, gold and BTC will continue to face pressure.
BTC is in a period of dual identity conflict:
✅ Long term: US debt expansion draws institutional attention to its scarce reserve attributes
❌ Short term: High interest rates maintain ongoing pressure
ETH has not decoupled and remains highly linked to Nasdaq.
Market differences: In downtrends, BTC spot shows stronger support and limited pullbacks; ETH experiences sharp volatility following market risk appetite.
US military strikes on Iranian facilities push Brent crude oil above $90, with the current core conflict centered on the clash between secondary inflation concerns triggered by the Hormuz Strait supply premium and asset de-risking pricing.
Brent crude surged over 2% on Monday, breaking above the $90 mark, directly driving US stock futures to fluctuate downward and causing a divergence in safe-haven assets. The escalation of geopolitical conflict shifts risk weighting toward the energy sector, rising inflation expectations suppress US Treasury performance and boost the US dollar, resulting in US stocks and crypto assets facing dual pressure from rising interest rates and shrinking risk appetite, with only gold benefiting from its geopolitical safe-haven status.
If Iran’s subsequent retaliation remains limited to verbal statements or does not affect commercial shipping through the Hormuz Strait, a drop in oil prices below $90 will trigger an oversold risk appetite recovery. At that point, pressure on US Treasury yields will ease, and US stocks and crypto assets will regain valuation support after the oversell.
The trigger for this oversold recovery scenario is Brent crude closing below $90 intraday; key variables to watch include traffic data from major Middle Eastern shipping routes. If oil prices surge past $95, this recovery scenario will be invalidated.
If Iran’s actual retaliatory actions directly block substantial crude oil transport channels and oil prices remain firmly above $90, the market will fully shift to secondary inflation pricing. Rising US Treasury yields will strengthen the US dollar, gold will trend upward amid volatility, while US stocks and crypto assets will enter a secondary correction driven by liquidity tightening.
The trigger for this sustained pressure scenario is oil prices breaking above and holding at $92; the variable to monitor is the magnitude of the US Treasury yield spike. If oil prices fall below $88, the secondary inflation trade will be directly invalidated.
The key to the overall scenario’s failure lies in the actual extent of damage to crude oil supply. If supply and demand data confirm the conflict poses no threat to physical crude delivery, tightening pressure on interest rates will quickly dissipate.
Core variables to observe over the next 24 hours to 7 days: whether Brent crude can stabilize at the $90 level, the actual impact of Iran’s retaliatory actions on shipping routes, and the extent to which US Treasury yields follow oil price fluctuations.
#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配核心关注：BTC ETF九连阳终结后首次验收真实买盘｜7.7万–7.8万美元决定结构强弱｜ETF能否重新转正是关键｜关注今晚美股开盘后资金流向 $BTC 早盘约78,300–78,400美元。相对周末高点约79,380美元，只是回撤一截；真正的大跌发生在上周五，从约81,350–81,450美元砸到约76,900美元。亚洲早盘是周五阴线后的余波，不是又出了一条新黑天鹅。周末没有新的ETF打印，目前7.8万上方只是现货和衍生品发生消化，还不是机构重新进场的确认。#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 这轮从约63,000美元拉到81,000美元上方，主驱动是空头回补叠加ETF连续吸筹。8月19日至21日全市场短清算上到数十亿美元级别，轧空买完以后，8万美元上方必须换成现货接。上周五两件事同时发生：沃什在杰克逊霍尔强调PCE同比约3.7%、近六个月折年约4.1%，通胀仍高于2%目标，9月加息概率从大约35%抬到55%–60%；同一天美国现货BTC ETF净流出约2.02亿美元，终结连续9日、累计约30.4亿美元净流入。黄金跌约2.4%，美股吐回，BTC从81,450美元附近打到76,900美8.31｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
The opening strategy for the new week is very clear: mainly short at the rebound highs, no chasing longs without volume to reclaim 80,000.
$BTC is currently consolidating around 78,000. After surging to 81,300 on Friday, it was pushed back by the hawkish speech at Jackson Hole by Wash, and over the weekend it only weakly rebounded to around 79,300 before stalling. The issue is not just the candlestick pattern, but that after the sharp rise from 63,000 to 81,000, the bulls have not yet been cleared out. The ETF also ended a nine-day inflow streak on Friday, and funding rates remain positive. In this situation, if employment data is strong, it is very likely to trigger another drop.
$ETH is now around 2,420, basically moving in sync with BTC.
‼️ The real variable this week is the US employment data chain: tomorrow JOLTS/ISM, and Friday Nonfarm Payrolls. If the data confirms an overheated economy and September rate hike expectations rise again, BTC could retest 76,000 at any time, or even see 74,000.
Current trading strategy:
BTC: Short in the 79,200-80,500 range, target around 74,000-75,000.
ETH: Short in the 2,460-2,520 range, target around 2,340-2,380.
If BTC breaks above 81,300 with volume, the short positions are invalidated immediately; never stubbornly hold against the trend.
What do you think before the Nonfarm Payrolls release: will BTC first drop to 75,000, or directly rebound to 80,000?
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#OKX星球话题来啦
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 The US has struck Iran again and again, causing the market to be directly hammered. The 24-hour liquidation data is very representative: long liquidations at 179 million far exceed short liquidations at 106 million, with a large number of long positions being washed out in the short term. Geopolitical news has become a tool for short-term harvesting of longs. The liquidation map shows that long position liquidity still accounts for 60.22%, and the long orders below remain, so the overall structure has not collapsed directly.
Current market status:
BTC 77756, slight pullback, the market temporarily holds the key price level;
ETH 2422, the correction is greater than BTC, the linked market weakens;
SOL 101.85, the largest drop, highly elastic tokens are hit hardest when bad news comes.
My honest opinion:
Many people see the Middle East conflict and immediately think the bull market is over and a big crash is coming. My view is exactly the opposite: most geopolitical sudden events are short-term emotional sell-offs that do not change the medium-term major trend. The panic selling caused by news is often just a shakeout, specifically clearing out short-term longs who chased high prices.
The greed index is still in the greed zone, and the market already needed a correction. The Middle East event just happened to serve as an excuse to hammer the market. Short-term will definitely continue to fluctuate repeatedly, with new uncertainties in the news at any time.
Do not panic sell, and do not impulsively go all in to bottom fish.
You can continue holding your base positions, but new positions must be controlled. Strong altcoins like SOL surge sharply when rising, but also drop hardest when bad news hits. For contracts, be sure to reduce leverage and avoid holding losses.
The most tormenting thing in a bull market is this kind of sudden black swan event.South Korea is cracking down hard on single-stock leveraged ETFs, causing daily trading volume to collapse, plummeting 97.25%.
The core logic is straightforward: the domestic high-leverage on-exchange channels are completely blocked, forcing a large group of young retail investors with high risk appetite to find new outlets for their liquidation funds. Their attention is now turning to overseas high-volatility assets with weaker regulatory constraints.
Data is clear: the daily trading peak for single-stock leveraged ETFs was 19.4 trillion KRW, dropping directly to 5.35 billion KRW. The margin threshold was raised from 10 million to 30 million KRW, with mandatory cash deposits required. This threshold effectively drained retail liquidity.
Tracking leveraged ETFs for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw cumulative net outflows of $381 million and $601 million respectively, totaling nearly $1 billion. This marks a large-scale monthly liquidation flight since the product launch at the end of May.
Margin increases plus suspension of new leveraged ETF issuance have directly cut off high-leverage supply on-exchange. Combined with strict rules like a 20-share purchase limit per transaction and mandatory 5-day simulated trading, retail investors in their 20s and 30s can only close positions passively. The forced-out funds will inevitably rebuild cross-border investment paths.
Risks are very likely to spill over externally.
This nearly $1 billion of squeezed-out retail hot money moving to offshore high-volatility assets with looser regulation will directly increase turnover and short-term volatility there. The rise in offshore retail account openings and net buying for three consecutive trading days should confirm this. Perhaps this is also bullish for the crypto space $BTC $ETH $ONDO On August 5th, I sold my last bit of Wuliangye at the daily limit down, then immediately bought all $BTC, entering at 57,000.
The friend group exploded, saying I jumped from one fire pit into another, but two weeks later the market crashed below 2850, while $BTC touched 65,000.
My only move was placing an order for $ETH at 2360 to catch the dip, then selling when it bounced back to 2500, repeating this four times mechanically like clocking in at work.
I learned three lessons: don’t fall in love with a downtrend, don’t trust the policy bottom, and don’t gamble out of spite in the same market.
Every day I only watch the perpetual funding rate; when it’s negative, I add positions, when positive, I stay flat. This works ten times better than watching the news.
On August 26th, the stock market plunged, but the crypto market reversed with a bullish candle—I fully believed the funds were moving.
The biggest gain this month wasn’t how much I earned, but learning to decisively admit mistakes and switch tables to keep playing.
Remember, it’s not that you lack ability,
it’s that you chose the wrong arena. Let go of obsession; if it’s time to change, then change.
Now I check the funding rate every night, turn off the lights, and sleep more peacefully than in the past year. This August was worth it. $ETH Last night’s sharp surge and this morning’s sudden drop in Ethereum
are the result of a fierce short squeeze sentiment colliding with macro/geopolitical bearish factors in a short time.
Essentially, this is a game between institutional buying of the spot ETF and selling in the derivatives market along with macro risks.
Fortunately, we were watching the 2400-2500 range yesterday; if you don’t understand it, don’t get attached and exit quickly 😅
The sudden drop seen right after the market opened was really scary, but seeing support around 2380, I lightly entered a position to hold and watch, with short-term resistance near 3450.
📈 The driving force behind last night’s surge: short squeeze and ETF inflows
· Massive short liquidations (short squeeze): In the past 24 hours, about $107 million in contract liquidations occurred across the network, with ETH being the "hardest hit," liquidations reaching $54.1 million, of which short liquidations accounted for $46.25 million (85%). Short covering buying directly pushed prices up.
· Continuous institutional inflows: Since August 12, the US spot Ethereum ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of about $1.5 billion, forming a solid buying base.
📉 The drivers behind this morning’s sharp drop: multiple bearish factors converging
· Fed’s "hawkish" speech: Chairman Warsh sent hawkish signals at Jackson Hole, reaffirming anti-inflation stance and keeping rate hike possibilities open. This pushed up US Treasury yields and the dollar, causing ETH and other risk assets to be sold off.
· Escalation of geopolitical conflicts: US military attacked Iranian rocket launchers, followed by Iran retaliating with missile launches. Market risk aversion increased, Bitcoin fell below $77,000, and ETH dropped sharply in sync.
· Technical overbought and fragile liquidity: ETH’s daily RSI is in the overbought zone, indicating a need for correction. Meanwhile, order book depth is very shallow (buy/sell ratio only 0.63), so small sell orders can trigger sharp volatility.
· Hidden selling pressure in derivatives market: While ETF funds flow in, there is active selling or hedging behavior in the derivatives market, creating a tug-of-war between spot buying and derivatives selling pressure.
The above analysis is based on public market data and does not constitute investment advice. Please bear your own risks. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码 #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 AI会不会交易，已经不是最难的问题了。 真正难的是：出了事，责任算谁的？ 前CFTC代理主席、现任FIA总裁兼CEO Walt Lukken 最近谈到AI Agent进入金融市场时指出，一个非常棘手的问题就是： “怎么让一台机器承担责任？” 他目前还担任CFTC创新咨询委员会主席，而这个委员会本身就正在研究AI、自主系统和Crypto等新技术带来的监管问题。 一、以后AI可能不只是帮你“选股票” 现在很多人理解的AI交易，还是： 人制定策略，AI帮忙分析和执行。 但未来的Agent可能完全不一样。 用户只给它一个目标，比如： “帮我赚钱，同时控制风险。” 接下来AI自己找市场、设计策略、选择交易时机，甚至自己决定怎么下单。 这时候一旦策略触碰市场操纵或者其他违规行为，问题就麻烦了。 二、真正的漏洞，可能出现在“责任链”上 传统市场出问题，通常还能找到一个明确的人： 交易员、基金经理、公司或者平台。 但如果策略是AI自己生成的呢？ 到底应该罚： 下命令的用户？开发AI的公司？模型提供商？交易平台？ 还是最后所有人都说： “这个具体操作不是我决定的，是AI自己做的。” 这也是为什么最近讨论This early morning plunge honestly made my heart skip a beat. Bitcoin just touched 80,000, then immediately got smashed through 77,000. The whole network saw liquidations of 180 million dollars in one hour, 90% of which were long positions.
Two negative factors stacked together. Wash's hawkish remarks are still buzzing in my ears, saying "inflation isn't over, don't stop raising rates." The market had just digested that for two days, but then the US military really bombed Iran overnight. Oil prices jumped, US stock futures crashed, and Bitcoin followed suit. What happened to the "digital gold" safe haven? Every time there's a war, it falls harder than anyone else, which shows that right now it's a high-risk speculative asset, so don't fantasize about any safe-haven properties.
Personally, I think tonight's big drop is a bit of an overreaction. Wash's talk actually brought nothing new, the probability of a rate hike is only about 55%, not even over half; the Iran situation looks more like a small-scale retaliation, with a low chance of escalating into a full conflict. But market sentiment got overheated, long leverage got liquidated, and no one could stop it.
What about the outlook? Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term. Also, there are US economic data coming up; if employment exceeds expectations again and rate hike expectations heat up, Bitcoin will most likely test 75,000. But if the Middle East situation doesn't escalate within three days, after the panic subsides, short covering could pull it back above 79,000. So those with heavy positions should reduce a bit, and those with no positions can place a buy order at 75,000 to catch a bargain, but don't chase the highs or sell in panic.
In short, this level is tough for both bulls and bears. Many are more bearish than I am, but I believe after the panic selling is done, it could be an opportunity—provided you control your impulses, enter in batches, and don't go all in at once. The Fed and Iran, neither are friendly players; let's wait and see how the news unfolds first.The core impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes on BTC and ETH is essentially a "drain" on global liquidity and a "dimensionality reduction strike" by the risk-free rate (U.S. Treasuries) against risk assets. When U.S. Treasury yields are pushed up to 4%–5%+, global institutions and large funds can obtain extremely high risk-free returns without bearing any volatility risk in the crypto market. This directly leads to a large amount of incremental capital giving up entry, and even withdrawing funds originally allocated to BTC/ETH to redeposit in U.S. Treasuries, resulting in a typical "capital hemorrhage."
Essentially, BTC has inflation-resistant properties, but during most rate hike phases, it suffers valuation compression due to macro liquidity tightening. The underlying logic of ETH after transitioning to PoS is "bondification." In a low interest rate era, ETH staking yields of about 3%–4% are very attractive; however, during a rate hike cycle, the U.S. dollar risk-free yield directly surpasses ETH staking yields. Rate hikes strip away the low-cost capital that the crypto market relies on for survival. For BTC, this means a downward shift in valuation anchors; for ETH, it means a dual hemorrhage of ecosystem activity and staking yield attractiveness. $BTC $ETH $OKB #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 On the last day of August, the market finally turned the "high-level long-short tug-of-war" into a real fight. In the early session, $BTC quickly dropped from above 79,000 to around 76,900, and $ETH was even more severe, plunging directly from around $2,460 to $2,386 before a rebound occurred. This decline cannot be simply understood as "whales dumping the market"; behind it are actually three forces simultaneously at play: macro expectations, the end of the previous short squeeze, and technical profit-taking. The biggest variable remains Powell. His latest statement continued to emphasize inflation risks, and the market's bet on a September rate hike once rose from 35.4% to 55.7%. The US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously, and gold also fell more than 3% in a single day. In other words, the "currency depreciation trade" that supported $BTC and gold in recent days is now facing a rate repricing. What is even more noteworthy is that during this rally from around 62,000 to 80,000, although real funds pushed it, more than $4 billion in shorts were also liquidated within two days. Forced short covering itself is buying pressure, and once this mechanical buying disappears, the market must re-verify whether there is enough spot capital willing to continue buying between 78,000 and 80,000. Therefore, I am not in a hurry to declare the bull market over. In the daily structure, $BTC and $ETH are still far from returning to the previous launch zone, but the short term has already entered a "deleveraging phase." For $BTC, I first look at 76,500–77,000; if it breaks below, it is likely to test around 74,000; only if it regains 79,000 with volume can we talk about 80,000–80隔夜 $CORE 再次走弱，连续两天位居跌幅榜前列，昨日跌超6%，今日一度再跌8%+，明显跑输整体市场。 更值得注意的是，CORE近期基本面并非没有消息：Core上线 Rev+ 收入分成机制，并将区块奖励按年下调约3.61%，试图改善生态收入与长期供给结构。 但短线市场看的不是故事，而是资金与筹码。 目前约67%总供应已进入流通，剩余供应释放仍是市场需要消化的压力之一。 当大盘反弹、BTC重新站稳高位时，$CORE 却持续走弱，说明资金认可度仍然有限。 一句话：叙事可以续命，接盘资金才决定价格。 如果“深夜利好、白天砸盘”的节奏持续，短线仍需警惕抛压进一步放大。 $CORE 目前最大的考验，不是还能讲出多少新故事，而是能不能真正出现持续买盘。⚠️SPK 这次上 OKX 的 X-Perp，不是一个简单的“又多了个合约”的小消息。 OKX 公告写得很直：SPKUSD UM（X-Perp）在 2026 年 8 月 28 日 7:00 UTC 开放交易，覆盖网页端、App 和 API。重点有两个，一个是标的是 SPKUSD，另一个是产品类型是 X-Perp，也就是更偏灵活交易和期限结构表达的衍生品，不是现货上新。 我会把这类消息拆开看。第一层是流动性入口。一个币进入 X-Perp 体系，意味着更多人可以用美元计价去表达多空观点，也更方便做事件交易、对冲和短线波动管理。对 SPK 这种 DeFi 治理和质押相关代币来说，衍生品入口本身会放大关注度，但不会自动改变协议基本面。 第二层是项目本身。Spark 官方文档里，SPK 被定义为 Spark 的原生治理和质押代币，用来做治理信号、协议安全相关的质押，以及奖励分配。文档还提醒，SPK 空投已经结束，最后领取日期是 2025 年 12 月 17 日，后面再看到所谓“还能领 SPK”的链接，就要先当风险处理。 这点很关键。现在市场最容易犯的错，是把“合约上线”直接理解成“项目要起飞”。其实Overnight plunge of more than 3%! Fed's Waller unexpectedly hawkish at Jackson Hole, is gold at a turning point or just a short-term pullback?
Last Friday, gold experienced a dramatic deep drop, catching many off guard, with high-position long orders trapped. For a moment, it was unclear whether this decline was just a normal correction or if the bullish trend had completely ended. Today, I will thoroughly explain the trigger for this plunge, the complete market logic behind it, and the key signals to closely watch going forward.
Let's briefly review the market: last Friday, spot gold fell steadily during the session, hitting a low of $4445.50, marking the lowest point since August 20, with a single-day drop exceeding 3%. On Monday morning, gold prices remained under pressure, briefly dipping to $4431.52 before a quick rebound from bargain buying, though the rebound was limited and prices fell back below $4450 to consolidate.
The most direct trigger for this sharp drop was Fed Chair Waller's public speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference.
Previously, the market generally expected a cautious tone without strong tightening signals, but this time the stance clearly shifted hawkish. Waller explicitly stated that if it cannot be confirmed that core inflation is steadily moving toward the 2% target, the Fed still has work to do. Currently, the labor market remains resilient, inflation is falling slower than expected, and financial conditions have not reflected the tightening effect of rate hikes. Controlling inflation remains the top priority at this stage.
This series of hawkish remarks directly rewrote market expectations for the September rate decision. The probability of a rate hike surged from 36% the previous day to 58%, and expectations for another hike in December rose to 89%. It’s important to understand that gold is a non-yielding asset; once rate hike expectations rise and real interest rates increase, the opportunity cost of holding gold goes up, naturally causing funds to flow out of the precious metals market and putting pressure on gold prices.
After the speech, the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously, creating a double negative impact. The dollar index surged in a single day, and both 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose, further weighing on dollar-denominated gold. Even though Waller later clarified that his remarks should not be taken as a clear policy guide, the market had already priced in the move and the downtrend was underway.
Many may wonder why, despite ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, US military actions, and escalating conflicts, safe-haven demand failed to support gold prices?
The core reason is that the market’s main focus has shifted. Currently, interest rate expectations have a much greater influence on the market than geopolitical risk premiums. Geopolitical conflicts can provide short-term support but cannot offset the systemic pressure from Fed rate hike expectations. Additionally, physical gold demand in India has cooled, local gold prices are increasingly discounted, and physical buying is cautious, which indirectly reduces support from below.
Market views are now clearly divided. Some analysts believe rate hike expectations will continue to intensify, and gold may further test the 4400 level; others insist this is just a healthy, larger-scale correction, with the medium- to long-term bullish foundation intact. Inflation stickiness, geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank gold purchases worldwide will continue to support gold prices over the long term.
In the coming week, the market’s outcome hinges on a series of US employment data releases. ADP, nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, and other data will be published sequentially. If employment data remain strong, it will give the Fed more confidence to continue raising rates, putting new pressure on gold prices; conversely, if employment data weaken and rate hike expectations cool, gold will have a chance to breathe and start a recovery rally.
Overall, this round of decline is driven by macro expectations, not a fundamental reversal of gold itself. The market is currently in a high-volatility, 50-50 probability game on rate hikes, with short-term bearish forces dominant. Focus closely on the critical 4400 support level; if support holds, there is still a chance for consolidation and recovery; if support breaks, the correction space will further expand.
For subsequent operations, avoid chasing highs or selling lows. This week’s data are dense, and market volatility will significantly increase. Be sure to manage position sizes carefully and patiently wait for key levels and data releases before positioning accordingly.
Risk reminder: Personal views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Capital preservation is paramount, and risks are borne by the individual.🚨The expectation of a rate hike in September suddenly heats up, is BTC really going to crash?
The market is a bit panicked this time.
After Jackson Hole, the expectation of a September rate hike clearly intensified. Just a few days ago, the market was still discussing "rate cuts," but suddenly it shifted to "will there be a rate hike?"
The signal released by Wash this time is very clear: don’t rush to expect easing before inflation returns to the 2% target.
This is also why BTC is under short-term pressure—interest rate expectations rise, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthen, and risk assets naturally suffer.
But I don’t think we can directly conclude now that the bull market is over.
What’s really worth noting is whether the market has already priced in the "rate hike" in advance.
If upcoming CPI, PCE, and non-farm payroll data start to weaken, and rate hike expectations cool down again, BTC might actually see a reversal in expectations.
Conversely, if inflation remains stubborn and employment stays strong, and interest rate expectations continue to rise, then BTC really needs to be on high alert.
So the worst thing now is to panic sell at the mere mention of a "rate hike."
I’d rather wait for three signals:
📌 Macro data
📌 U.S. Treasury yields
📌 Whether BTC’s key support breaks down with volume
Speeches are just expectations; data is the answer.
What do you think—will there really be a rate hike this September?
If there is a rate hike, do you think BTC will continue to drop, or will it "rise after the bad news is priced in"?👇
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 🚨 Breaking｜After the US military attacked Iran, Brent broke through $90 again
Fact: After the US military attacked the military facilities on Iran's Larak Island, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirmed casualties and stated they would retaliate.
Market's first reaction: On Monday, crude oil opened with a jump of over 2%, and Brent stood above $90/barrel again. This means the market has started to reprice the supply risk premium of the Strait of Hormuz.
Impact chain:
US-Iran conflict escalation → Crude oil ↑ → Inflation risk ↑ → US Treasury yield pressure ↑ → USD strength bias → US stocks/BTC face pressure from interest rates and risk appetite; gold simultaneously gains geopolitical safe-haven support.
My judgment: The biggest difference this time compared to yesterday is that the price is beginning to confirm the risk. Previously, it was just military news; now the oil price has made a clear reaction. If Iran's retaliation directly affects commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, "energy inflation" may once again become the core trade in the global market.
Key confirmation: Iran's actual retaliatory actions and whether Brent can sustain above $90.$BTC THE NEXT MOVE DEPENDS ON WHO STEPS IN AFTER THE SELLERS
Bitcoin's recent ETF flow story has been strong, but the most important part may come after the first signs of profit-taking.
The reported nine-session inflow streak ended with roughly $201.9M in outflows on Friday, after more than $3B of cumulative ETF inflows during the broader period.
At first glance, an outflow can look bearish.
But one day of selling doesn't automatically mean institutional demand has disappeared.
In fact, the more useful question is:
Who is willing to buy when the easy momentum disappears?
During a strong rally, buyers often arrive because price is moving higher.
That's momentum-driven demand.
But when Bitcoin pulls back and buyers continue absorbing supply, the market starts revealing something more important — whether there is genuine demand underneath the excitement.
That's why I'm less interested in the ETF streak itself and more interested in what happens next.
If BTC pulls back but remains structurally strong while spot demand returns, the correction could simply be the market transferring coins from short-term profit-takers to investors with a longer time horizon.
That would be a healthier development than endless straight-line inflows.
Markets need sellers.
Without sellers, there is no real price discovery.
The important thing is whether the market can absorb those sellers without losing its structure.
For $BTC, I'm watching how price behaves around the recent support zones.
If buyers consistently step in on weakness, it suggests demand hasn't disappeared.
If price continues falling while ETF outflows persist and spot volume weakens, then the market may need a deeper reset before the next attempt higher.
There's also an important distinction between ETF flows and price direction.
ETF inflows don't guarantee that Bitcoin will rise immediately.
Likewise, a single outflow doesn't prove that the long-term institutional thesis is broken.
Capital can pause.
Investors can rebalance.
Profit taking can happen.This wave of Middle East tensions has indeed suddenly tightened the market's nerves again. According to the latest reports, on August 30, the U.S. military attacked two launch facilities on Iran's Larak Island. The U.S. side claimed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was preparing to use rockets to drop mines into the Strait of Hormuz; This was the first time in weeks that the U.S. publicly admitted to launching direct strikes on Iranian targets. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard later warned of retaliation, and the situation entered a highly sensitive phase again. More notably, Iran later announced ballistic missile launches at U.S. bases in Jordan. Although reports said most incoming targets were intercepted, this means the market is no longer concerned about "attack incidents," but about whether a new chain reaction escalation of the conflict will occur. The energy market has already given an answer: Brent briefly rebounded above $90, with the latest price around $90.32, up about 2.5% intraday; WTI reached about $85.41, up about 2.4%. The Strait of Hormuz has once again become a core variable—it typically carries about one-fifth of the world's oil transport. If shipping and energy supply are further disrupted, the oil price risk premium is likely to continue widening. Meanwhile, $BTC is currently around $81,500, which is noticeably calmer compared to the sharp reaction in crude oil. This is actually quite interesting. BTC did not trigger a panic sell-off due to geopolitical conflicts, indicating that funds have not yet formed a clear logic of "full switching between safe-haven and risk assets." What really needs to be observed next is not just BTC itself, but crude oil energyDefi was hacked for 6 million USD. Just yesterday, people were still saying to stay away from defi wealth management.
Cronos is another hacker story where a low-liquidity asset was rapidly pumped, then used to leverage a huge loan position.
The attacker pushed the price of the low-liquidity TONIC token up by about 100 times, then used this inflated collateral to borrow around 75 million USD worth of other assets. The technique was quite sophisticated.
There was a slight rise over the weekend, but there still isn’t much really worth acting on, so just wait a bit longer.
ETH looks stronger than BTC, and HYPE is still high, but the problem is that chasing now means profiting from continued acceleration while bearing the risk of a high-level pullback, so it’s better not to move at all.Ethereum has something Bitcoin simply doesn't: native yield through staking. And that gap is becoming increasingly important as traditional finance starts packaging ETH exposure together with staking rewards. Staking Has Outgrown Its Crypto-Native Roots Roughly 36.6M ETH about 30% of total supply is currently staked. That's a huge chunk of the asset economically locked into securing the network rather than sitting available for trading. But the more interesting shift is happening on the product The core conclusion of today's market is: risk appetite has shifted back to caution, and on Monday's Asian open, the primary concern is no longer just the Federal Reserve, but the sudden escalation of the Middle East situation. On Sunday, the U.S. military attacked rocket launch facilities on Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first known direct strike on Iranian targets by the U.S. military since late July; Iran subsequently launched ballistic missiles in response and warned of continued retaliation. Driven by this, Brent crude oil surged back near $90. Meanwhile, the hawkish signals released by Warsh at Jackson Hole have yet to be fully digested by the market, and pressure on the dollar and interest rates remains. BTC temporarily held near $78,000 over the weekend, so what we really need to watch today is how oil prices' rebound will lead to the repricing of BTC, Asian stock markets, and U.S. Treasuries. 1. What happened overnight? 1. The U.S. military directly struck Iran again, suddenly raising the risk in the Strait of Hormuz. Facts: On August 30, the U.S. military struck two rocket launch facilities on Iran's Larak Island. U.S. officials said these facilities were operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and were preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the first known direct U.S. strike on Iranian mainland targets since late July. Iran then launched ballistic missiles at U.S. forces stationed in Jordan, most of which were reportedly intercepted. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the U.S. attack caused multiple casualties and vowed to respond. Market reaction: Crude oil became the most direct pricing asset. The latest Asian trading data shows: Brent crude oil rose about 2.52% to 90. US military night raid on Hormuz causes oil prices to surge, Bitcoin gets "hit" again
The US military conducted a night raid on the Revolutionary Guard rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island, claiming they were preparing to deploy naval mines. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard vowed "inevitable retaliation" and has launched missiles at US military bases. As a result, WTI crude oil jumped nearly 2% at the open on Monday, and Brent crude returned to $90. The crypto market simultaneously plunged, with Bitcoin falling below $77,000, down about 1.7% in the past hour, while Ethereum, SOL, ZEC, and other leading tokens also dropped collectively.
This is not a safe haven move, but inflation transmission.
War → oil price rise → inflation expectations heat up → Fed rate hike expectations strengthen → liquidity tightens → risk asset valuations contract. BTC is still currently a "risk asset with crypto attributes," not "digital gold." Every step oil prices rise tightens rate hike expectations, lowering the valuation ceiling for crypto by a notch.
ETF funds also confirm this: amid rising rate hike expectations in September, BTC ETFs ended a 9-day inflow streak, with about $202 million net outflow yesterday; ETH ETFs saw zero inflows or net outflows for 9 consecutive days.
The key is to watch the 4-hour support. If it holds, it's still a chance to go long; if it breaks effectively, the direction turns bearish. Geopolitical disturbances are short-term noise; macro liquidity is the mid-term guiding star.
In short: oil prices rise, Bitcoin falls; if support holds, wait for confirmation; if broken, exit and don't hold the position.
$BTC $ETH The expectation of rising interest rates is transmitting to macro asset pricing, with overvalued tech stocks facing cross-market valuation pressure. Although $NVDA's earnings report was strong, the chip sector subsequently showed divergence. The high-level pullback of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indicates weakening market support for high valuations. If this week's U.S. employment data is strong, further fueling expectations of a Fed rate hike in September, volatility in U.S. tech stocks will directly impact overall risk assets. Going forward, monitor Broadcom's earnings performance and whether interest rate expectations reverse after the employment data release.
#银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13%What to do if the price crashes right after you buy?
Stay calm. For dollar-cost averaging, it can even be a bit exciting, as it means you can buy at a lower price. The capital flows on August 28 are telling the market a story quite different from before. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million that day, while Ethereum-related products attracted $102.1 million at the same time, while Solana and XRP also saw net inflows of $17.3 million and $18 million, respectively. At first glance, this seems like a picture of "funds abandoning BTC," but if you look back, a more accurate interpretation might be: institutional interest is spreading from a single asset to diversified sectors, rather than bidding farewell to Bitcoin entirely. This divergence is not a sign of panic. In recent weeks, the market has been highly cautious about BTC, with prices repeatedly testing within a narrow range. The net outflows from ETFs seem more like a sign of profit-taking and rebalancing needs. What truly deserves attention are those assets that have seen net inflows against the trend—ETH, SOL, XRP—each representing different narrative logics. ETH's appeal is closely linked to the ongoing fermentation of spot ETFs, with funds pricing for more mature on-chain ecosystems and institutional infrastructure; SOL inflows are accompanied by a rebound in on-chain activity and intensive advancement of ecosystem projects; Meanwhile, XRP, once the regulatory environment becomes clearer, has once again become part of some institutional allocation portfolios. Structurally, this is more like a rehearsal for "internal rotation" rather than the end of a trend. BTC's status as the market's ballast remains unshaken, but the marginal preference for incremental funds is changing. If BTC can stabilize at key support levels,Core theme: Shift from Jackson Hole sentiment to nonfarm payroll data verification, both technology and crypto enter high-level volatility 1. U.S. Market Outlook Last week ended the full sentiment cycle of "Nvidia earnings surged → Jackson Hole hawkish retreat," with the three major indices closing higher but under pressure over the weekend. This week, the market will shift from policy expectations to fundamental data verification. The August nonfarm payroll report is the absolute core, directly determining the probability of a September rate hike and the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. • Benchmark judgment: High-level volatility is digesting, indices unlikely to show one-sided rallies. Nasdaq core trading range 26,100-26,800, S&P 500 range 7,630-7,780. • Upside trigger: weakening nonfarm payrolls + slowing wage growth, market trading with rate hikes peaking and cutting early, growth stocks experiencing valuation recovery. • Downside risk points: Nonfarm payrolls are stronger than expected, with the probability of a rate hike in September surging above 70%. US Treasury yields have hit previous highs, putting renewed pressure on tech stock valuations. II. Core Sector Outlook 1. Semiconductor and Storage Sector Last week, the semiconductor index pulled back, but the memory sector showed significant resilience. The two underlying logic of AI demand + price hike cycles remains unbroken, indicating a sentiment correction rather than a fundamental reversal. • Core catalysts this week: Expectations for September storage contract price negotiations are heating up, and the market will preemptively speculate on the extent of price increases. • Continued internal differentiation: HBM and enterprise SSD leaders have the strongest fundamental certainty and offer the best cost-performance after corrections; Consumer storage targets are highly elastic but more volatile. • Key observation: Whether Micron and Seagate Technology can hold their previous platform support, the companies...Iran and the US are still using the Strait as a bargaining chip, with $BTC $XAUT $ETH being pulled by two axes
On the 29th, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed; ships can only pass with Iran's permission, there is an understanding with Oman, but it will not reopen until the US complies. The presidential stance is that it can reopen under the framework, provided funds are unfrozen and the blockade lifted. Before the conflict, about 20% of the world's crude oil passed through this waterway. Brent crude hovered around 88 over the weekend. Gold has already priced in this premium, but after Wash's speech on the 28th, it was hit again by rate hike expectations, dropping about 3% on Friday alone, with spot gold around $4450 over the weekend. Bitcoin ground from 77,800 on Friday to around 78,800, touching 79,300 intraday. Ethereum climbed back above 2500, outperforming Bitcoin slightly.
My view in one sentence: The Strait being closed raises the risk premium on oil and gold, while rate hike expectations suppress the discount rate on gold and crypto. BTC these days behaves more like US Treasuries, not like oil. Gold pulling back a bit doesn't mean the geopolitical tension is over, and crypto rebounding a bit doesn't mean the Strait is reopening. On Monday, watch gold and US Treasuries at the open first; don't assume all three assets move up or down together. #伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码 August's Strongest Rebound: BTC Rises Nearly 25%, Breaking the August Curse Since 2013
One sentence summary for August crypto: The worst month of summer turned into the strongest August since 2017.
Data first on the table
• BTC: Around $62,800 at the start of the month, monthly low about $62,200, surged to approximately $81,300–$81,500 on August 28, then retreated to around $78,200–$78,800 by month-end. Monthly increase about 22%–25%, the strongest August since 2017. Historical August median is about **-7%**.
• ETH: Around $1,860 at the start, about $2,460 at month-end, monthly rise over 30%.
• SOL: Around $103–$105 at month-end, nearly 30%+ increase in 30 days.
• OKB: About $114–$115 at month-end, nearly 30%+ increase in 30 days.
• DOGE: Around $0.07 at the start, about $0.085 at month-end, roughly 20%+ increase.
• Total market cap: Raised from about $2.25 trillion to approximately $2.64–$2.70 trillion. BTC dominance about 59%.
Where did the rise come from?
Three factors combined: US Treasury repo expectations boosting liquidity, spot ETF inflows, and short squeeze liquidations.
US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow in August was about $2.38 billion, with about $1.92 billion entering in one week—the strongest week since October 2025. Mid-month single-day short liquidations were massive, forcing a short squeeze that pushed the price directly from around $62,000 to above $78,000. Institutions bought spot, leveraged shorts were forced to close positions; this was not just retail frenzy.
Note the ceiling remains: The October 2025 high was about $126,200, still roughly 37% higher than now. This is a rebound month in a bear market, not a new peak rally month.
September outlook
Seasonally bearish: From 2013 to 2025, September averages about **-3% to -4%**, with 8 out of 13 years closing down. A harsher fact: Historically, after several "green Augusts," September closed red with an average pullback of about -6%. September has closed red for three consecutive years from 2023 to 2025; the curse has loosened but is not ironclad.
What to really watch in September is not the calendar but capital and policy:
1 Starting September 9, the US Treasury will increase long-term bond repos, keeping the liquidity narrative alive.
2 The CLARITY Act window is around mid-September; whether it passes or not will disturb sentiment.
3 Key levels: $77,000–$78,000 is the defensive zone after August's rebound; $81,000 is the upper edge of the descending channel; about $83,000 is the 365-day moving average. Only by holding above these can a trend reversal to bullish be discussed.
One sentence outlook
August proved shorts will be liquidated and ETFs are still buying. September will likely start with consolidation before choosing a direction: holding $77,000 offers a chance to turn August's rebound into a new trend; breaking below means treating August as a bear market bounce. Position sizing is more important than prediction.
Data as of August 30, not investment advice. $BTC really shows that no matter what indicators you look at, money is what matters! Just yesterday, there was a net outflow of over 200 million USD, and today it started to drop! Hopefully, 77k can hold.