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ETF funds show structural divergence, with BTC and ETH institutional buying logic changing
Recently, US spot crypto ETFs have indeed been flowing back, with weekly net inflows reaching nearly a 10-month high, but the money is not rushing in all at once; internal preferences have already split.
ETH is more stable: spot ETFs have continuous net purchases, with BlackRock's ETHA as the main recipient. The increment seems driven more by medium- to long-term allocation/staking expectations, with funds stepping in on pullbacks. This aligns with on-chain data—ETH is continuously withdrawn from exchanges, inventory is decreasing, and there is a strong tendency for self-custody.
BTC, on the other hand, is more trading-oriented: ETFs show buying during price rises and selling on pullbacks. Many of these are short-term/hedging/market-making funds that take profits when prices fluctuate. On-chain, BTC exchange inventories have slightly replenished, with some old coins moved back onto exchanges when prices rise, preparing for swing trades or hedging.
In short, ETH is attracting allocation capital, while BTC reflects trading sentiment. But don't overlook: both are risk asset funds, and if macro conditions tighten or interest rate expectations rise, ETFs could withdraw simultaneously. In the short term, ETH's structure looks stronger, BTC depends on liquidity and options walls; operationally, don't use the same logic to bet on both.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $HYPE This time it's worth a second look.
It is upgrading from a "trading platform" to "on-chain financial infrastructure."
Recently, the testnet showed signs of a suspected large compliant exchange deploying the HIP-3 test environment, including institutional-level features such as access control, whitelisting, and permission management.
There is no official confirmation yet, but if it materializes, the significance is considerable:
The compliance capabilities of traditional institutions + on-chain transparent settlement + perpetual contract market may truly be coming together.
HIP-3 itself allows third parties to deploy perpetual markets on Hyperliquid. Once traditional financial institutions start connecting, the potential of HYPE is no longer just "an exchange token," but it may begin to be revalued by the market as financial infrastructure.
$BTC, as the liquidity core of the entire crypto market, will ultimately also benefit from the continuous expansion of on-chain financial infrastructure.
The biggest focus now is not how much it will rise, but rather—who will be the first institution to truly bring traditional finance into HIP-3.$SPCX｜Index rebalancing game, don't mistake front-running for passive buying
The overall market remains sluggish, volatility continues to decline, capital attention is scattered everywhere, and trading gradually becomes a daily routine task, wearing down traders' mentality.
$SPCX is currently moving in line with the Nasdaq adjustment rhythm, with relatively sufficient buying power on the board, but it's important to distinguish between two completely different types of capital. The number of new stocks and official weights will be announced after the market close on 9.11, while passive funds tracking the index will execute at the closing auction on 9.18 and officially take effect on 9.21.
In other words, the capital entering the market now is mostly front-running capital engaging in early speculation, not passive buying driven by the index.
History can refer to the market from 8.14 to 8.17, when capital pulled prices up in advance to reserve space for selling after the unlocking on 9.10, which is a typical event-driven speculative game.
Therefore, before the time windows of 9.10 and 9.18 arrive, SPCX is not suitable for blind short selling. In the short term, it is highly likely to maintain a stable oscillating pattern, but beware of the "sell the fact" risk after positive news is realized.#Strategy与BitMine同步增持
In the same week, one had an unrealized gain of 2.5 billion, the other an unrealized loss of 5.3 billion.
Strategy sold stocks to raise 370 million USD, bought 4,603 BTC at an average price of 80,000 USD each, bringing total holdings to 845,000 BTC, with an unrealized gain of 2.54 billion USD.
BitMine spent 132 million USD to buy 53,500 ETH, with total holdings of 5.9 million ETH, showing an unrealized loss of 5.29 billion USD. It staked 86% of its holdings, earning an annualized staking income of 335 million.
▪️ Strategy model: leveraged buying of coins, profiting from BTC appreciation beta
▪️ BitMine model: staking for yield, earning cash flow beyond ETH
▪️ But the 335 million interest is only 1/16 of the 5.3 billion unrealized loss
The divergence is not about whether to buy, but about what kind of money the treasury earns.
To get a sense of scale: 845,000 BTC is 4% of the global total, 5.9 million ETH accounts for 4.9%—nearly 10% of the crypto circulating supply is being turned into balance sheet figures by companies.
Can staking interest outperform coin price declines? In the next market cycle, will you back a BTC treasury or an ETH treasury? $xNVDA Nvidia's fundamentals are explosive, but the market is hesitant.
Good news: Vera Rubin has secured orders from all major clients. Jensen Huang said it will be the fastest product ramp-up in history, with Q3 accounting for 20% of data center revenue. Pending orders total $2 trillion, and the top five cloud providers' capital expenditures approach $800 billion in 2026, possibly reaching $1.3 trillion in 2027. Revenue could still grow 70% next year. 58 analysts have buy ratings with an average target price of $323 (current price $217, still 49% upside).
Reason for hesitation: growth is slowing, Q2 grew 106% but Q3 guidance is mid-80%, decelerating quarter by quarter. The past five earnings beats were all above expectations but the stock fell after four of them. Forward P/E is 18x, the lowest in 5 years, but "low valuation" does not mean "immediate rise"; catalysts are needed.
Key signals: If the CLARITY Act procedural vote passes on September 15, the entire crypto and AI sectors will benefit. Also, new Russian crypto regulations take effect today; Sberbank predicts $46 billion in trading volume in the first year, adding to global computing power demand.
Strategy: Hold long-term without selling, wait for Vera Rubin's volume data release to look for new catalysts. #BroadcomDellAIResults
How is this capex financed?
Hyperscalers aren't funding $50B+ backlogs from cash flow they're issuing debt at a pace unseen since dot-com. Earnings this week are also a story about credit markets absorbing that issuance while 10Y yields climb on their own.
AI capex pulling on capital, government debt quietly losing real value both bets that money now beats money later.
Watch if AI spending starts pressuring yields directly, not just inflation.
NFA.Everyone is doing BTCFi, but STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY are fundamentally different asset classes
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is only for outlining track logic and technical architecture, and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto is highly volatile, please be sure to DYOR.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is booming, but many people tend to confuse STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY. In fact, although these four targets all carry the "BTCFi" label, their underlying positioning, security models, and business logic are completely different. Some are building elevated bridges, some are creating new continents, and others are doing "security business." Today, we will thoroughly clarify these four tracks in 1000 words.
1. Core Positioning: Four Completely Different Species
STX (Stacks): The "veteran" of Bitcoin native L2
Stacks is one of the earliest explorers of Bitcoin Layer 2. It uses a unique PoX consensus and Clarity language, aiming to implement smart contracts without modifying the Bitcoin mainnet.
Core logic: Connect assets through sBTC, allowing users to play DeFi on top of Bitcoin. After the Nakamoto upgrade, it achieves second-level confirmation, but its non-EVM nature means it is a relatively closed yet highly native track.
CORE (Core DAO): The "independent L1" with its own power grid
CORE is not a layer two but an independent Layer 1 public chain. It pioneered the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, "borrowing" idle computing power from Bitcoin miners to secure its own chain.
Core logic: Build an EVM-compatible "Bitcoin power grid." It serves not only retail users but also focuses on institutional-level lstBTC (liquid staking Bitcoin) business, aiming to become the underlying infrastructure for RWA and payments.
MERL (Merlin Chain): The "ZK express lane" for inscription players
MERL is an authentic Bitcoin ZK-Rollup Layer 2 network. It was created to solve congestion and high gas fees for BRC20 and inscription assets on the BTC mainnet.
Core logic: EVM-compatible, specifically serving liquidity release for BTC native assets (Ordinals/Runes). Its success heavily depends on the activity of the inscription market.
BABY (Babylon): The "wholesaler" of Bitcoin security
BABY has the most unique approach. It is not a chain for running applications but a Bitcoin staking protocol.
Core logic: Allows users to stake BTC directly on the Bitcoin mainnet, "renting out" the security of these BTC to other PoS public chains (such as the Cosmos ecosystem). It is currently the only solution to achieve BTC non-custodial staking.
2. Security Watershed: Who is truly guarding your BTC?
This is the most hardcore metric to distinguish these four projects.
BABY (top tier): BTC always remains in the Bitcoin mainnet UTXO, no cross-chain bridges, no wrapped assets (no wrapping), pure cryptographic staking. This is currently the safest trust model in the industry.
CORE (non-custodial): User BTC is locked in Bitcoin mainnet's CLTV time lock, private keys are not handed over to anyone. The main risk lies in the state synchronization mechanism of relay nodes (Relayers).
STX (consortium-based): Connects assets through sBTC, relying on a decentralized signer alliance. Although there are economic incentives and penalties, there is still a theoretical risk of alliance collusion.
MERL (custodial): User BTC enters MPC multi-signature custody addresses, mapping out stMBTC. Assets leave the mainnet, trusting the honesty of the MPC custodian, with counterparty risk.
3. Token Value Capture: Who is paying for the tokens?
STX: Burn model. Users consume STX when using the sBTC ecosystem; staking STX can earn BTC rewards (BTC-denominated yield).
CORE: Dual staking necessity. To obtain advanced yields, staking CORE is required; the official plan is to use revenue from institutional businesses like SatPay and lstBTC to buy back tokens.
MERL: Profit buyback. The official promise is to use 50% of ecosystem profits for MERL buybacks. On-chain gas primarily consumes BTC, MERL is mainly used for node staking and governance.
BABY: Security rent. PoS public chains pay Babylon fees to obtain Bitcoin-level security. Meanwhile, BABY is also the network's gas and governance token.
5. Summary
STX is the "conservative reformer" on Bitcoin, pursuing nativeness and stability.
CORE is the "radical infrastructure fanatic" in the Bitcoin world, pursuing scale and institutionalization.
MERL is the "traffic operator" of Bitcoin assets, pursuing speed and inscription popularity.
BABY is the "behind-the-scenes arms dealer" of Bitcoin security, pursuing ultimate cryptographic trust.
In this cycle, understanding which layer the asset is on (L1/L2/middleware) and who holds custody (non-custodial/custodial/consortium) is far more meaningful than just watching the K-line.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFi US-Iran Military Conflict Escalates Again: Market Impact and Investment Analysis
The US-Iran confrontation continues to intensify, with market focus centered on the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil supply, and the risk of spillover in the Middle East situation. Both sides have launched successive military actions, driving the market to reprice geopolitical risk premiums.
Core Logic of the Escalation
The US military struck Iran's rocket launch facilities on Larak Island, with the US stating that the facility posed a potential risk of laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran launched ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan and attacked US targets in the Gulf region. US President Trump stated that the US would impose severe retaliation on Iran.
This round marks another cycle of direct military confrontation between the US and Iran in over a month: the US strikes targets in Iran → Iran retaliates against US bases → the US threatens further retaliation. Neither side has explicitly stated an intention to start a full-scale war, but the chain of retaliation has formed, significantly increasing the risk of miscalculation and further escalation.
Jordan's strategic position is becoming increasingly critical. The country hosts US military bases and serves as an important hub for US air operations in the Middle East.
The greatest risk remains centered on the Strait of Hormuz. The US strike on Larak Island essentially revolves around this global energy chokepoint. If Iran continues to use missiles, drones, and mines to threaten shipping through the strait, global crude oil transportation will be impacted. About one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through here, making oil prices highly sensitive to changes in the situation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 $TRUMP The Trump family's crypto money printing machine
I've long figured it out, who is still risking it by rushing into the President coin?
Today the volume is as thin as paper, the team casually smashed through it with a single move. Their team pumped coins into the Solana pool, withdrew USDC to cash out, and the market not "crashing" in essence is just unloading. Just after that: another batch was injected on-chain today, withdrawing 3.39 million USDC, just like on 8/23, transferring okx.$SPCX has now reached 143, and it really does seem like it could continue to surge, but at this level, I am actually more cautious.
Many viewpoints on Wall Street believe that $SPCX's current valuation is clearly too high. A new type of rocket company valued at the $2 trillion level—aren't these expectations too exaggerated?
From a purely fundamental perspective, I personally think the $70–80 range might be relatively reasonable. The current stock price is largely driven by market sentiment, Starship expectations, and Elon Musk's influence.
After all, $SPCX's core business is still rockets, Starlink, etc., and the Q1 financial report is still in a loss state. The Q2 report is expected to be released in December; if performance still shows no significant improvement, the pressure from the high valuation will sooner or later return to the market.
So at this 143 level, the divergence between bulls and bears is actually very large.
For those already holding positions, if the funding rate and position size are manageable, I actually think there is no need to easily close positions due to short-term fluctuations; but if leverage is too high, risk control is necessary.
The Starship launch plus unlocking expectations are pushing $SPCX to a critical point where sentiment and fundamentals are in a tug of war.
#SPCX #Starship #USStocks
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults In the first week of September, what I fear most now is not a sudden crash of BTC, but that the US employment data is "not bad enough".
This sentence sounds a bit counterintuitive.
The market has already pinned many hopes on a policy shift in September: weak employment = rising expectations of rate cuts = a breather for risk assets, everyone understands this logic#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Rebirth: My Trading in High School Campus 💻
(200u Stable Compound Interest Chapter)
$ETH Ethereum's one-hour chart is actually quite clear. Earlier, it dropped sharply from 2534 to 2386, then although it rebounded, it clearly faced resistance again around 2470-2480 🤔
Now the price is back around 2466, and the rebound strength is obviously not as strong as the previous drop #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Gm! September has begun!
This is historically bitcoin:native's worst performing month. But August was down there too and just had an amazing one so that's just to show how seasonality doesn't always apply.
Having said that, I think a lot of investors were waiting to allocate in September due to the historically mediocre August & September months. Since Q4/October is usually when the big upside moves for Bitcoin have started.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Is the broad altcoin rally season over? Understanding the new real-money liquidity from SOL, KAS to HYPE
The eternal question retail investors care about most: When will the altseason actually arrive?
The reality is harsh: the previous era of "Bitcoin rising and all the trash altcoins soaring together" with a broad market rally has most likely ended permanently.
According to the latest ecosystem data from Binance Research and DefiLlama, as Bitcoin consolidates around the 80,000 mark, capital is extremely precisely flowing into three new strongholds:
First, high-performance trading public chains. Represented by Solana (SOL), on-chain active addresses and DEX trading volume continue to lead, with speculative capital always clustering in ecosystems with the most concentrated wealth-creating effects;
Second, fair distribution narratives. Represented by Kaspa (KAS), a pure PoW architecture, which, thanks to no pre-mining and pure community consensus, shows strong capital absorption in a volatile market;
Third, real yield and buyback dividends. Represented by Hyperliquid (HYPE), the leading on-chain perpetual derivatives platform, which relies on solid fee cash flow to buy back tokens, completely overturning the previous "pure hype, zero income, high valuation" VC air coins.
In the era of stock competition, only tokens with network effects, fair consensus, and real value generation capabilities can survive. Clinging to air coins with no income will only lead to ruthless elimination in a structural bull market. $TRUMP The Trump family's crypto money printing machine I've long figured it out, who is still risking it by rushing into the President coin? Today the volume is as thin as paper, the team casually smashed through it with a single move. Their team pumped coins into the Solana pool, withdrew USDC to cash out, and the market not "crashing" in essence is just unloading. Just after that: another batch was injected on-chain today, withdrawing 3.39 million USDC, just like on 8/23, transferring to OKX $BTC funding is at the 84th percentile, meaning traders are paying more than usual to keep longs open.
But 1-month IV is only at the 16th percentile, meaning the options market expects a relatively calm month.
Futures OI is also 0.4σ below its 1Y trend.
If this gap closes, we could see longs get flushed or volatility pick up fast#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Coinbase's CEO made another statement: on-chain reputation will replace FICO credit scores. His logic is that a public ledger can prove repayment ability, multiple lenders share the same data, and on-chain lending can already provide unsecured credit lines up to $3,000.
Some bloggers directly poured cold water on this, and I agree with most of it: on-chain identities can be created in bulk at zero cost, reputation scores can be manipulated, and real lending with actual money still relies on collateral. The hardest part of credit evaluation is not the data, but preventing fraud. On-chain reputation can be used as an auxiliary reference, but replacing FICO? It's still too early.Strategy Is Buying $BTC Again. After Selling 6,916 $BTC This Summer
The company just bought 4,603 BTC for $370M, paying an average $80,318 per coin; its first Bitcoin purchase since June 22.
That's interesting because the summer had looked very different. Between June 30 and August 10, Strategy sold 6,916 BTC for roughly $430M as part of its new BTC monetization program.
📊 After the latest purchase:
🟠 BTC holdings → 845,050 BTC
🟠 total acquisition cost → $63.7B
🟠 average purchase price → $75,412
🟠 USD cash reserve → $1.61B
🟠 STRC repurchased last week → $152M
So the old Strategy story of "just keep buying Bitcoin" is getting more complicated. It can now sell BTC, rebuild cash, repurchase its own securities and then buy Bitcoin again when it chooses.
Saylor may still be the world's loudest $BTC bull, but Strategy itself is starting to look more like an actively manage treasury
#BTCGoldCorrelation Data from DefiLlama: Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours reached $1.33 billion, surpassing Ethereum's $993 million, and also exceeding BNB and Base, ranking only behind Solana. Network layer revenue was $963,000, three times the combined total of Ethereum, Solana, BNB, and Base.
However, this surge is supported by Meme trading, with on-chain TVL only at $725 million. There's quite a bit of fluff. My judgment: the exchange's favored chain doesn't lack traffic entry points, but it lacks real usage that retains users. Don't treat single-day data as a trend; whether the volume remains next week is what really counts. 过去两轮牛市复苏期收官后均经历主升前经典二次探底（忽略20年312黑天鹅） ┌── 链上数据详情 ──┐ 图中上方指标为比特币价格；图中下方指标为比特币链上短期持有者MVRVVolatile and Correlated to Beta: Bitcoin and Gold
Bitcoin and gold have been highly volatile and correlated with the S&P 500 (SPX), which suggests what matters. What's changed -- other than the crypto's peak from an extreme in 2025 and similar for the metal in 1Q -- is that gold's annual volatility premium vs. the SPX is about 2.2x, well above its roughly 1-to-1 20-year average.
Full report on the Bloomberg here: {BI COMD}#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults The most common mistake people make with the non-farm payrolls is only looking at the result, not what the market was originally expecting.
Suppose the market has already priced in "cooling employment and rising rate cut expectations."
Then the non-farm payrolls actually show cooling.
Logically, this should be bullish for $BTC, right?
Not necessarily.
Because if this news has already been bought into by the funds, then after the data is released, it might actually turn into profit-taking.
This is the most troublesome part of the market.
Prices never wait for the news to happen; they anticipate the news in advance.
So the same non-farm number can lead to two completely opposite market moves depending on the market environment.
That's why I’m doing less and less of this simple judgment:
"Non-farm is below expectations, so BTC goes up."
This sounds reasonable, but it’s far from enough when actually trading.
You also need to know how much the market has already risen before the release, how the dollar is moving, where rate expectations stand, and whether the funds have already priced in this result.
Sometimes the most exciting moves come from data that looks very ordinary.
Because the market expected A, but the result is A plus a little bit.
The numbers are correct, the direction is correct.
But the price just doesn’t rise.
Then a bunch of people get confused.
Actually, the market has already written the answer into the price in advance.
So this time for the non-farm, I want to see "how much the expectation and reality differ."
The data is just the answer.
What really determines how the price moves is what the market originally thought the answer would be.😈 $ZORA — Time to Short?
Just opened a short on $ZORA . 📉
With around $43M open interest and a 6:4 long/short ratio, longs look heavily crowded.
Too much retail positioning on the long side could leave ZORA vulnerable to a sharp pullback.
Now let’s see if this short plays out. 👀🐻#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Robinhood Chain has officially been live for just over two months, and yesterday's single-day profit was 2.66 million, already surpassing Ethereum's 1.27 million, making it the second most profitable blockchain overall, only behind $SOL's 5.07 million. But the main driver is meme coins: since going live, there have been over 22,600 meme coins trading, with most of the revenue coming from here, which is definitely not good news for the cryptocurrency sector. And even the top Solana only makes about 5 million a day, while $NVDA's daily revenue exceeds one billion, basically incomparable. Blockchain is still in its infancy stage, so these amounts really aren't something to flex about; the goal is to become like Nvidia or Apple. But it’s undeniable that Robinhood Chain has quite a few users, and $HOOD is also a stock with a lot of potential. In late August, ETH experienced a rare strong rally for the year. From August 19 to 21, ETH rose from about $1916 to an intraday price of $2546, a significant increase surpassing BTC over the same period. Afterwards, the price did not quickly retreat but consolidated near the $2500 level, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded significantly from the mid-year low. This rally was first ignited by improved risk appetite and short squeezes, but the real discussion in this article is the supply and demand changes behind the rally: the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a weekly net inflow of nearly $700 million, about 42 million ETH staked, exchange balances dropped about 15% compared to early June, and corporate treasuries continue to increase holdings. Several forces are combining, compressing the amount of ETH available for immediate sale. Based on this, author Itai Smidt suggests that ETH's circulating supply has tightened significantly compared to June, and new funds entering thinner markets may generate greater price elasticity. However, a decrease in supply does not necessarily mean a price increase; this round also includes a large amount of short covering and leveraged funds, so the sustainability of ETF inflows has yet to be fully verified. Therefore, what the market needs to confirm next is not only whether ETH can break through $2550, but also whether institutional funds can continue to flow in, whether ETH/BTC can hold onto the rebound gains, and whether staking and corporate holdings continue to absorb new supply. These variables will determine whether this rally is a quick short squeeze or an ET#OpenAI广告业务年化营收达10亿美元
ChatGPT's advertising business launched less than 200 days ago, with annualized revenue reaching 1 billion USD, becoming the third major monetization stream after subscriptions and API, solidifying the commercialization story ahead of the IPO. The ads mainly target free and low-cost plan users and have now expanded to more than forty countries, with self-service ad tools simultaneously opened in Europe, the Middle East, and other regions.
However, advertising revenue still accounts for a small proportion of total income, with a significant gap remaining to the full-year target of 2.5 billion USD, while also facing controversies over user experience and differentiation from competitors.
BTC and ETH markets are not directly affected; the main market trend still depends on macro liquidity.
On-chain AI-Agent and AI marketing concept tokens have only received sentiment-driven boosts, benefiting mainly from thematic factors.
AI commercialization has been validated, but thematic speculation should distinguish real business from hype, and blindly chasing hot targets is not advisable.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. Hormuz oil tankers attacked, is BTC about to get hit again just as it catches a breather?
Two supertankers were struck by unidentified objects in the Strait of Hormuz while leaving the Persian Gulf.
Brent crude oil immediately broke through $92, the probability of a September rate hike surged to 65%, and U.S. Treasury yields hit new highs.
For BTC and ETH, the chain of transmission is clear and direct: geopolitical conflict → oil price rise → rate hike expectations heat up → risk assets come under pressure. BTC remains volatile around 78K, ETH struggles near 2450, with geopolitical risks acting as a short-term suppressing factor.
If oil doesn't spiral out of control, BTC can still hold; if oil keeps soaring, BTC will keep taking hits. Watch more, act less, wait for the shoe to drop.
$BTC $ETH The dull market is always broken by sudden macro events. Once the tension in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, crude oil rises and gold falls. A better buying opportunity than yesterday appeared, so I decisively increased my position.
The logic behind the oil price rise is straightforward: the tension in the strait reduces transport capacity, so oil prices go up.
The gold decline was also verified in the last round, meaning gold has good liquidity. Once oil prices rise, sovereign states will sell gold to exchange for oil to maintain social operations. Once this trend gains momentum, funds will rush in during every sudden event. The longer-term logic is that the probability of a rate hike in September has been rising recently, and rate hikes are bearish for gold.
The US stock market and Bitcoin usually also fall due to liquidity risks.
Trading mainly depends on what level you are operating at. For example, looking at yesterday, being long gold and short oil was indeed a bit early. For ultra-short-term trades, there have already been several waves of fluctuations, but if you want to hold for at least a few weeks, you can gradually increase your position according to the market.
Currently, the round of conflict escalation that started over the weekend shows no signs of ending yet. Based on past experience, it will last several days, but it is unlikely to escalate to a higher level. After all, the US military's war fatigue is well known. Even if the strategic smokescreen to cover the conflict is deployed, the subsequent conflict is just for show. $CL $XAUT Regarding WLFI, most people still associate it with "that crypto project from the Trump family." But its USD1 stablecoin issuance has already reached around 4 billion dollars, ranking it among the top five stablecoins. In mid-August, the OCC conditionally approved its application for a national trust bank, so issuance, reserves, and custody might soon shift from BitGo to its own management. The original post redefines it as "dollar financial infrastructure," which I think is a description closer to the truth than just a label.
The competition among stablecoins is shifting from "who issues more" to "who can solidly implement compliance and custody." Whether institutions dare to use it depends on reserve transparency and regulatory licenses, not community hype. For ordinary people, don’t chase it just because the name has political connotations, and don’t ignore it due to bias—just look at its reserve audits and custody structure.Market Brief: Contrarian Short Trade Amid SNDK's Violent Rebound
Market Overview
SNDK rapidly surged from 1450 to 1579 in a short time, with extremely high pre-market volatility; the intensity of the move rivals that of altcoins. Traders positioned short near 1553, setting stop-loss above the previous high at 1580, planning to exit if the breakout occurs, or wait for a pullback if it doesn't.
At the same time: ZEC rebounded to 846 but failed to reclaim the key level at 887, showing weak rebound strength; BTC also started a rebound but with limited upward momentum, overall a passive recovery. All three rebounded simultaneously but lack certainty for long-term holding.
Market Logic
SNDK remains a high-speculation asset, with fundamentals, event catalysts, and capital short squeezes intertwining, causing short-term pulses at any time.
This trade is a contrarian play with a stop-loss, acknowledging the market can still push higher, clearly defining the failure boundary by price rather than subjectively assuming the price must fall.
ZEC and BTC's weak rebounds reflect insufficient buying power in the overall market; the rebounds are more of an oversold correction without forming a new offensive trend.
Trading Insights
In contrarian trading, the most important thing is not to bet on direction but to predefine where your judgment is proven wrong and strictly execute stop-loss.
Even if the market feels "irrationally high," never hold on without stop-loss; short squeeze moves can continuously exceed expectations.
In collective rebound markets, without a clear main driver, avoid blindly holding long-term positions; prioritize short-term speculative trading. There are two conflicting things happening in the prediction market this week. The compliance route took a hit: The Ninth Circuit Court ruled Kalshi's sports contracts as sports betting, which falls under state jurisdiction, and since sports revenue accounts for 70% of its business, this ruling strikes at its core. On the other hand, the permissionless route is accelerating, with Hyperliquid's HIP-4 launching on the mainnet, not serving US users, so regulators can't catch up for now. Polymarket is also rumored to have raised $1 billion with a valuation of $21 billion, and money keeps flowing in.
The prediction market is splitting into two species: one trying to enter the regulatory system, the other trying to bypass it. For ordinary people, don't treat it as a guaranteed winning casino; its essence is an information market, where winning or losing depends on information asymmetry. If you want to play, first think clearly: How is your information source stronger than the market's pricing?Volatility is building as NFP approaches.
$BTC BTC keeps testing $79K while $ETH ETH struggles below $2.5K. The market feels ready for a breakout.
Key catalysts: Middle East tensions, NFP, and CPI. The Fed is widely expected to stay on hold in September, but the real volatility could come around these events.
Altcoins are moving hard too. $ARB has been volatile, and I’m watching for another short setup after consolidation.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Axis released a set of data, and I read it twice. They received 660 manual corrections, but only 161 segments, 24.4%, were actually used to train the robot. Even more counterintuitive: feeding the model with the entire human operation reduced the success rate from 40% to 36.7%; leaving only the key short segments that correct errors raised the success rate to 48.3%.
More data is not always better; feeding in garbage dilutes the signal. This is also why they recently changed the badge system: 500 trajectories, 30 consecutive days, completed within 3 seconds. On the surface, it's a task, but in reality, it's screening human behavior patterns. My judgment: in the future, feeding data to robots will devalue quantity and increase the value of quality. Those who want to participate should not spam volume but focus on refining a single scenario; this kind of data will be valuable in the future.The largest lending protocol on Cronos, Tectonic, was exploited, with losses estimated at $75 million. The method was not new: the governance token TONIC had very thin liquidity, its price was pumped 100 times, and then used as collateral to borrow real money. The chain's reaction is worth pondering; validators directly shut down the entire chain, rolling back to before the attack, effectively erasing nearly two hours of everyone's transactions, including innocent users' transfers. Only about $6 million had already crossed to Ethereum and cannot be recovered.
Cutting off the network can stop losses, but the cost is that the chain is no longer trustworthy. The money you put in might disappear because someone else got into trouble. Don't put large assets into protocols with governance tokens that have high collateral factors but thin liquidity; this is the most direct lesson from this round. After an incident, first see if the official side rolls back or compensates anyone, then decide whether to keep or exit your position.#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
Right now, many people are anxious: if there really is a rate hike in September, will this bull market for $BTC and $ETH come to a halt? After all, the market's bet on a September rate hike has risen to 66%.
But let's calmly analyze — does the Fed really have the capacity to raise rates, and dare it continue tightening? Even if it does act in September, how much of a stir can it really cause?
One key fact is: the Fed hasn't officially acted yet, but the market has already "consciously" priced in a rate hike. After Walsh spoke, the 2-year US Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points, meaning traders preemptively completed part of the Fed's operation. Whether the officials hike or not, the cost of capital has already been pushed up.
Since the rate hike's negative impact has been largely priced in, and the market has already experienced a drop, when the boot truly drops, the shock will actually be much weaker — the expectation gap has been mostly closed.
Moreover, this correction would have come sooner or later even without Walsh's hawkish remarks. After continuous rallies, consolidation and clearing of floating positions is a necessary phase of the market; the speech just happened to be the trigger.
Looking at the longer term, this round of BTC breaking 120,000 and ETH surpassing 5,000 is basically a done deal. Short-term fluctuations won't change the medium- to long-term direction.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 . $BONK rose 17.3% in 24 hours, with a market cap close to $290 million, surging to the top of OKX's gainers' list. The price increase alone is quite impressive, but I checked the transaction volume and saw only $2.5 million in 24 hours. For a meme coin, this volume can't even support decent turnover.
I even checked the transaction distribution: there were only a few big orders, mostly small orders worth hundreds or thousands of dollars pushing upward—a typical sentiment market. Meme coins are like this—they only cost a little when they get listed, and as soon as the rankings are listed, they're just following the crowd. But the problem is, when you see the leaderboard, it's often already the latter half. By the time you decide whether to chase, they've probably already sold their shares 😂Today, CME data shows that the probability of a rate hike in September has reached 65.4%.
After Wash's speech, this number doubled from 35%.
In the past, such a level of macro bearishness would have caused BTC to drop at least 5 points initially.
But this time it didn't crash; the lowest hit was 77396, then it bounced back.
Why didn't it fall?
Bitfinex released an analysis yesterday:
The August rally was mainly driven by spot buying, not leveraged positions.
Open interest is rising, but the basis is relatively restrained.
Someone is buying with real money.
On-chain data tells the same story:
Whales holding 100-1000 BTC increased their holdings by 73,300 BTC over 60 days, the highest since April 21.
Retail investors holding 0.1-1 BTC have a cumulative trend score as low as -0.982, almost selling out completely.
Whales are accumulating, retail investors are selling out.
But on the ETF side, signals are mixed:
Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of nearly $1 billion.
But on Friday alone, there was a net outflow of $202 million, ending a 9-day streak of net inflows.
On Monday today, BlackRock brought back $217 million.
In the same market, three sets of data are conflicting:
65% rate hike probability, BTC didn't crash.
Whales are buying, retail investors are selling.
ETF saw $200 million outflow on Friday, then $200 million inflow on Monday.
Someone is selling, someone is buying. Who has the stronger force? Unknown.
At this position, no movement.
Before the rate hike is finalized, neither chase nor cut losses.
Let the data speak.
$BTC $ETH $ARB, $CRV, and $OP's move today feels more like the price moved first, and then the story followed.
$ARB surged over 30% today, briefly touching 0.119. The core reason is still the implementation of technical upgrades—ArbOS 61 was just completed, Stylus contract capacity expanded fourfold, and zero-knowledge proof technology was integrated. Additionally, the Robinhood chain built on Arbitrum Orbit contributed a lot of traditional financial traffic, accelerating RWA capital inflow, with institutions positioning ahead of month-end. ARB broke through the range it had been sideways in for three months in one go today; the price rose first, and the discussion heat followed. #Robinhood链上交易激增，币股Meme成主角
$CRV also rose by more than ten points, hovering around 0.35. Curve still holds influence in stablecoin swaps, and with ARB and OP, which are Ethereum-based, moving together, funds naturally flowed over. $OP also rose about 9% today, but it seems more aligned with BTC's macro rhythm rather than having its own independent catalyst.
However, ARB's RSI has already exceeded 70, clearly overbought. Open interest contracts actually plunged 46% during the price rise, indicating many are using this rally to sell rather than add positions. The same goes for $OP, where open interest dropped 16%, with some taking profits on the 9% gain. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 $ARB, that is, Arbitrum, as one of the leading Layer 2s in the Ethereum ecosystem, usually fluctuates considerably, but this time, it suddenly surged from a low point to nearly 20%, which really ignited market sentiment. My first reaction was actually quite simple: Is this the "rushing to find opportunities to short" stage again? After all, after similar sharp rallies in $BICO and $BEAT, I tend to wait for sentiment to overheat and liquidity exhaustion before looking for a reversal. But this time, I was a bit hesitant. The reason is simple—strong coins fear hitting the top early. If $ARB is just a short-term capital pulse, rising on high volume and stagnant, then then pulling back to key support, then shorting at high levels might indeed have a good profit-loss ratio. But if, like some previous strong trend assets, funds keep flowing in and short positions are constantly liquidated, then what you call "short selling at the high" may eventually turn into being forced short all the way. What's even more troublesome is that the current macro environment itself is quite complex. Recently, BTC has repeatedly fluctuated around $77K, ETF funds have diverged, $ETH have attracted more attention, and there is a clear rotation of funds within the market. Technically, $ARB has clearly deviated from the moving average in the short term, with prices quickly surging beyond the upper Bollinger Bands, and indicators like RSI entering high levels. From a technical perspective, there is indeed a demand for a pullback. But the most dangerous part of the crypto world lies here: overbought ≠ immediately falls. As long as capital keeps pushing, overbought is acceptableRevisited all of Waller's public speeches from his appointment until last Friday,
The change in attitude is very obvious.
I believe that based on the current data, a rate hike by Waller in September is almost 100% certain; this is the inevitable choice to prove the Federal Reserve's independence.
If there is a rate hike, it should be the only one. If the September 16 rate hike causes a big drop, that will be the best bottom-fishing opportunity.
Recently, the frequency of actions will decrease, patiently waiting for the best buying point.
For bottom-fishing, the targets remain the same: AI storage sector, crypto DeFi sector, plus some cost-effective leading meme coins.
The approximate ratio is 4:4:2 for $BTC
Opportunities come from waiting; do not enter the market blindly #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 ZEC THE BIGGER STORY ISN’T THE PUMP. IT’S ACCESS TO CAPITAL.
Zcash moving from below $600 toward $880 has obviously caught attention.
But the price increase isn't the part I find most interesting.
The bigger development is the changing access to institutional capital.
With Grayscale's Zcash ETF now trading on NYSE Arca, traditional investors have a more direct vehicle for gaining exposure to ZEC without needing to navigate the underlying asset themselves.
That's important because accessibility can influence how an asset is valued.
Privacy-focused assets have historically faced a major challenge: strong narratives and technology don't always translate into easy access for traditional capital.
An ETF changes that equation.
According to the figures being discussed, the fund has accumulated roughly 393,000 ZEC, representing more than $260M in exposure.
That's a very different market structure from one driven purely by retail speculation.
But there's another side to the story.
ZEC's recent rally has also attracted significant leverage, with futures open interest approaching $1.8B.
That means volatility shouldn't be underestimated.
A heavily leveraged market can move aggressively in both directions, even when the broader thesis remains intact.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see ZEC experience sharp pullbacks after such a powerful move.
The important question is whether those pullbacks actually damage the larger structure.
For me, the roadmap is straightforward:
$880 → first major breakout test
$1,000 → psychological milestone
$1,100 → longer-term level I'm watching
But those targets only matter if the market continues to demonstrate real demand.
The institutional angle is what makes this cycle different.
If traditional capital continues gaining easier access to privacy-focused assets, ZEC's valuation discussion could gradually shift from:
“Can this coin pump?”
to:
“How should institutional investors value exposure to privacy infrastructure?”
That's a much bigger question.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH $TRUMP The Trump family's crypto money printing machine
I've long figured it out, who is still risking it by rushing into the President coin?
Today's volume is as thin as paper, the team casually smashed through it with a single move. Their team pumped coins into the Solana pool and withdrew USDC to cash out; the market not "crashing" is essentially a sell-off. Just after that: another batch was injected on-chain today, withdrawing 3.39 million USDC, just like on 8/23, transferring to OKX and then directly crashing 33%.
Also be wary: on September 18, 28.7 million coins will be unlocked, all given to insiders, which at the current price means 67 million in selling pressure; this is the 19th time, and there are 16 more times totaling 279 million coins until 2027.
One million retail investors are floating a loss of 3.2 billion, the only hope for a rise is betting on Trump's calls, but every call is the team cashing out at the top.
Trump's 2025 crypto income is 1.4 billion, buyers have cumulatively lost 3.8 billion, for every 1 dollar earned, buyers lose 6 dollars.
So are you still contributing to the President coin?Is Nvidia stable? Investing 3.5 billion in MediaTek, HBM4E is coming
Nvidia ($xNVDA) rose 1.48% yesterday to close at $220.78, with a trading volume of 27.2 billion ranking second in the entire market, showing a very solid foundation.
Looking at several things together:
First, NVDA announced an investment of 3.5 billion USD in MediaTek to deepen AI chip cooperation and expand its circle of partners;
Second, Samsung is cooperating with Nvidia's request to develop HBM4E, pushing speed specs to 17-18 Gbps, the computing power arms race continues;
Third, FY27 Q2 revenue reached 96.2 billion USD, doubling year-on-year, and it gave a FY28 full-year growth guidance of about 70%. This is not a peak, but a growth curve still in a steep phase.
My judgment: NVDA is no longer "hype" but a "performance fulfillment + ecosystem lock-in" double hit. When it rises, the entire AI and crypto-stock-chain breathes with it; when it coughs, the market catches a cold. As someone in the crypto circle, watching NVDA is more important than many altcoins, as it is one of the main switches for risk appetite in this round. Share two recent market opportunities This morning when I was looking at Robinhood Chain, I was drawn in by two chains. Monad’s TVL suddenly jumped noticeably, but the token price barely reacted; this kind of divergence should eventually show up in the coin price. Base has been trending upward slowly. If you look closely, it’s mainly that lending demand has picked up—both the borrowing volumes of $MORPHO and $AAVE are increasing. As things stand, in this bear market MORPHO hasn’t actually dTesting 81500 without falling back, this doesn't look like a bear market rebound
Lately, people keep asking: Is the range from 60,000 to 80,000 just a bear market rebound?
My answer: 99% no.
The bears' entire basis is "past bear markets have dropped for a full year, and this cycle hasn't reached that yet." But price action has already given the answer — after testing the previous high of 81500, there was no rapid fall, it has been stabilizing at a high level, a pattern rarely seen in the latter half of a bear market.
On-chain data also supports this: Glassnode's profit chip ratio in two bear markets bottomed around 45%, meaning more than half the chips are at a loss, which is the bottom value zone.
Only one step left for official confirmation: to hold steady between 80,000 and 90,000. I see the short-term correction limit at 75,500; a pullback to support is actually an opportunity.
Also, to be honest: the 200,000 target I mentioned before was just a guess, a reasonable expectation, not to be taken as a basis.
Personal opinion, not investment advice, profit and loss at your own risk.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC $ETH The market was actually quite stable today. Ethereum was oscillating within the 2455-2480 range, with lows rising and no sign of further decline. This pattern shows that the buying market below is real rather than just incomplete. A whale is selling on-chain—167,855 ETH, worth about $408 million. Over the past 48 hours, over 70,000 ETH have been dumped on exchanges, with over 90,000 still unsold. With 400 million yuan in shares, ETH still holding steadily above 2470 is honestly considered solid. On the other side, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $87.67 million yesterday, marking 11 consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock ETHA had a single-day net inflow of 59.93 million. Bitmine continues to keep buying, maintaining a 65-week streak without interruption. On one side, whales are dumping; on the other, ETFs and institutions are accumulating. The bullish and bearish tug-of-war is obvious, but the price hasn't fallen, indicating stronger buying. On the news front, the upgrade range for Hegota has been finalized, and EIP-8141's status has shifted from "considering" to "scheduled." This is the biggest upgrade since The Merge, with more narratives to follow. My judgment: whale selling pressure remains, and ETH will likely need to be tempered in the short term. But continuous ETF inflows + Bitmine's continued accumulation + Hegota upgrade period means the support below is very strong. With this pattern, pullbacks are buying opportunities. $ETH Buy on a pullback to 2450-2455, stop loss at 2410, target 2500-2520, and increase volume targeting 2550#贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解
Besent again advocated for easing bank regulations at the G20, focusing on increasing credit supply to small and medium-sized enterprises and households. However, at this stage, it remains a policy direction and capital rule proposal, not fully effective. The Federal Reserve proposed three sets of capital rule reforms in March, covering large banks' Basel III, systemically important surcharges, and traditional loans for small and medium banks; the June stress test showed all 32 large banks exceeded the minimum common equity tier 1 capital threshold. Costs remain tight: as of August 31, the prime lending rate was 6.75%, and the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.75%. If regulatory adjustments are implemented, credit supply may improve, but interest rates and risk pricing will still limit demand. Subsequent observations will focus on final rules, bank capital requirements, loan standards, and small business loan growth.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.This time, I was indeed on the wrong side. No major positive news suddenly landed; the market was mostly a technical breakthrough combined with concentrated short closing of positions. $BTC After breaking through the key oscillation range, short positions were continuously liquidated, forcing buying further to push prices higher, followed by capital spreading toward high-beta assets. Next, it was $ETH's turn to gain momentum, with prices quickly regaining near $2,500; Then $SOL accelerated, with leverage and volatility making its upward elasticity even more apparent. The entire capital rotation path was very clear: BTC broke out → ETH followed → SOL to amplify the market. More notably, crypto ETF funds have maintained strong resilience recently. Although $BTC ETFs experienced capital outflows at times, $ETH ETFs maintained continuous net inflows, indicating institutional funds have not completely withdrawn from the market but have shown clear signs of asset rotation. And now I still have a $ETH short position, with an entry price around $2,410. This time, the market reminds me again: don't just focus on direction, but also pay attention to liquidity and liquidation chains. When shorts are crowded enough and the price truly breaks out, the market often doesn't give you much time to react #BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto #LaborMarketTestsWalshThe Damocles sword hanging over the US: if the 30-year US Treasury yield reaches 6%, it marks the start of a death spiral!
On one hand, Fed's Waller says inflation is moving a bit fast, fueling rate hike expectations; on the other, US Treasury Secretary Yellen says traditionally there won't be rate hikes!
Current policy deadlock
Yellen is conducting long-term bond buybacks to ease bond market liquidity but can't solve the root cause of the deficit;
Waller keeps rate hike options to fight inflation, but hikes would further raise Treasury interest costs. It's hard to balance both.
Once US Treasuries approach 6%, Bitcoin and gold will take off directly!
Inflation or US debt— which to save next? The key focus remains on the CPI for August, to be released in September!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解 Just yesterday, the world's largest oilfield services company SLB announced the acquisition of German heat exchanger manufacturer Kelvion for $4.1 billion. The deal includes $3.4 billion in cash and the assumption of approximately $700 million in debt, and is expected to be completed in the first half of 2027. Kelvion is expected to generate revenue of $2.3 to $2.4 billion in 2026, with data centers already becoming its largest and fastest-growing customer market. After the integration is completed, SLB hopes that the data center solutions business will achieve revenue of $4.5 to $5 billion by 2028. SLB's acquisition of Kelvion, a century-old industrial company that grew through drilling, pumping, and underground engineering, now spending billions to enter AI data centers, reflects that global capital is seeking new entry points beyond GPUs. AI chips are becoming increasingly popular, and cooling computing power has become a heavy-asset business. From data center air conditioning to chip water cooling Traditional data centers mainly rely on air cooling. Cool air enters from the front of the cabinet, and fans carry the heat generated by servers to the back, where it is handled by air conditioners and chillers. Early server cabinets had power of only a few kilowatts, and air cooling was sufficient. As CPU and GPU performance improved, the power per cabinet gradually increased. With advanced chip manufacturing processes, the number of transistors continues to grow, but voltage and leakage control become increasingly difficult, concentrating heat in a very small area. AI training further amplifies the problem. Nvidia GB200 NVL72 integrates 36 Grace CPUs and 72 Blackw