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Wintermute: September FOMC is a key catalyst for BTC, rate hike expectations rise to 61.9%
Wintermute pointed out that the September 15-16 FOMC meeting will be a major catalyst for risk assets, including the crypto market. After Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, market expectations for a rate hike in September rose to 61.9%. BTC's short-term direction is hard to predict, with key support levels at $75,000 and $72,000, and resistance at $82,000.
Wintermute is a leading global crypto market maker, and its market outlook is valuable for institutional capital allocation. This statement comes against the backdrop of Fed official Warsh's hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, which led the interest rate futures market to price a rate hike in September to 61.9%, exceeding the previous market consensus. As crypto assets are highly sensitive to liquidity and risk-on, repeated rate hike expectations have become the core factor suppressing BTC's breakthrough of the $82,000 resistance zone.
Looking at cross-asset performance in August, BTC rose 0.10%, lagging behind gold's 3.42% gain and Brent crude oil's 4.31% gain, roughly in line with the S&P 500 (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.42%) but with greater volatility. ETH fell 0.86%, underperforming other mainstream risk assets. BTC absorbed a previous 23% gain over the past week, briefly breaking above $81,000, but fell back below $78,000 after Warsh's remarksFinancial liquidity risks are beginning to emerge: yen rate hikes are beginning to be priced in, expectations for the US-Japan interest rate spread are shrinking, financial liquidity is limited, and risk asset flows are tightening! Japan's Finance Minister and Bescent delivered speeches today. The market expects Japan's fiscal policy adjustment, with the 10-year Japanese bond yield breaking through 3% for the first time in 30 years. #就业数据密集公布, Warsh's policy stance is being tested. Previously, when I warned about yen risks, I mentioned a combination: if the yen breaks 162-165, the 10-year Japanese bond yield will rise to 3%, and the 30-year bond yield will break above 4%. At that time, the Japanese economy will face extreme loss of control risk, provided the government does not intervene. In the past six months, we have frequently seen Japanese government intervention in the exchange rate market. Even Becent, cooperating with the U.S.-Japan joint exchange rate market, combined with their recent speeches, clearly indicates a change in Japan's fiscal policy. Japan's policy has gradually taken the lead in prioritizing the yen, managing inflation second, and finally considering Japanese bonds. This is completely different from previous government-stimulated bond markets. Facing the harsh environment of high global oil prices, high inflation, and Japan's high imported inflation, Japan has actually formed a policy swap with the US. That is, Japan accepts higher bond yields in exchange for a stronger yen. In the future, the Bank of Japan is likely to reduce long-term bond purchases, tolerating continued rises in long-term bond yields and raising yen asset yields. This will result in a narrowing US-Japan interest rate spread, less attractive for arbitrage trading, capital flowing back to Japan, yen appreciation, and reduced import and inflationary pressures. I mentioned this in this week's macro weekly reportStripe consortium exits, PayPal drops nearly 13%, the market seems to have suddenly removed the "M&A filter"
Acquisition rumors often keep old companies alive because they temporarily spare investors from worrying about growth, competition, and product aging. Now that the buyer is gone, PayPal has to face those old problems on its own: developer access is being taken by Stripe, mobile payments are being challenged by wallets, and cross-border settlements are being targeted by stablecoins
PayPal does have assets, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to tell a new story that excites the market
The most painful part of this drop is that the market is not asking "who will buy you," but rather "if no one buys you, can you still become valuable on your own?" This question is quite harsh for many established internet finance companies
#Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13% The divergence between $SPX call Skew and Put Skew also indirectly reflects the current state of the S&P 500.
1. Due to investors chasing gains and buying upward SPX calls, premiums have increased, causing Skew to soar;
2. PUT Skew declines conversely, indicating reduced demand for investor protection—in short, the market is perceived as low risk...
Although the $SPX has just recently fallen below the 20-day moving average in the short term, it remains close to new highs and the bulls still have momentum. Short-term risk appetite is relatively strong, and the market conditions support continued short squeezes and gradual price increases; however, trading is already crowded, and downside protection is insufficient. Once a negative shock occurs, volatility may suddenly spike.
$SPY $QQQAre ETF funds starting to "go their separate ways"? The institutional logic of BTC and ETH is quietly diverging.
Recently, there has been a clear inflow of US spot crypto ETF funds, with the combined weekly net inflow of BTC and ETH hitting a nearly 10-month high.
But don’t just look at the total amount; what’s really worth noting is — the money is coming in, but what institutions are buying has already changed.
ETH ETFs have been attracting funds for several consecutive days, with BlackRock’s ETHA continuously absorbing inflows.
On the other hand, BTC ETFs look more like "buy on the rise, run on volatility": funds surge during price increases but start flowing out with slight pullbacks.
Why?
BTC ETFs have more trading-type funds, so when the market fluctuates, profit-taking and exits happen very quickly.
ETH ETF’s new funds tend to be more medium- to long-term allocations, betting on potential dividends like staking ETFs, and are willing to slowly accumulate on pullbacks.
But don’t think ETH funds are too stable either. If macro conditions continue to tighten, these risk-on funds could also withdraw en masse.
On-chain data echoes this:
ETH continues to flow from exchanges to self-custody wallets, with exchange inventories steadily declining; meanwhile, BTC exchange inventories have risen somewhat, as some long-term holders seem to be putting chips back on exchanges during the rally, preparing for swing trading.
So what’s most worth watching now might not be "whether ETFs have funds coming in."
Rather — whose money is this, and how long are they planning to hold it? 👀
#DailyOrbit #贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解
Sent wants banks to lend more, but the market has pushed US Treasury yields to 4.75%.
At the G20 Finance Ministers meeting, Bassett advocated relaxing capital constraints on small and medium banks, using credit and investment to grow the economy and use growth to manage debt. Meanwhile, Wash left the door open for rate hikes—CME shows a 66% probability of a September rate hike.
▪️ 10-year US Treasury at 4.75%, a 19-month high, intraday spike over 4.77%
▪️ Treasury doubled 30-year repo to 4 billion per session, large-scale entry on 9/10
▪️ Triple pressure: Wash fighting inflation + US-Iran oil price rebound + long-term bond supply
The disagreement is not about whether to lend, but where the credit flows.
Flowing into equipment, manufacturing, technology → supply strengthens, inflation cools, "growth to manage debt" works; flowing into asset prices → inflation stickiness, prolonged high interest rate cycle, more fiscal pain.
To get a sense of scale: US Treasury debt is 40 trillion, each 1% interest rate equals 400 billion in interest. From 0.73% in 2020 to 4.75% now, annual interest payments increased by about 1.6 trillion—the first step to managing debt is to first earn this 1.6 trillion.
This round of liquidity, will it flow into factories or asset prices? Do you believe in growth or in interest rates?Still the same words, if Brother Jin can't hold on, how can BTC hold on?
1. Trump clearly stated that he will respond to the attack on Iran, geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are going up.
2. Warsh's speech scared the market, the probability of a rate hike surged, and the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policy will cause funds to flee and wait.
3. The US Treasury Secretary supported tightening monetary policy at the G20 finance ministers' meeting, urging the Japanese to raise rates, and market liquidity will be further severely drained.
What can be seen is that the external macro environment is unfriendly to the market, so the choice was to short.
If it can still rise under these circumstances, then it can only be said that BTC has detached from modern economic logic, which is obviously impossible, right?
So continue to short!! #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH Subtle reminder:
$BTC .D topped out 2 months before $BTCUSD did last year, and it has refused to make a low since 10/10 liquidations where it saw a 7.5% spike upward in one day. That was the biggest crypto liquidation event in the history of the space$BTC #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults US military airstrikes on Iran cause international oil prices to surge sharply, while US stock futures weaken. According to past logic, risk assets should simultaneously come under pressure, but BTC defies the trend, rising from 77,000 to 78,500, a daily increase of 1.5%; ETH and $SOL also rise in tandem, with the total crypto market capitalization increasing by 1.7% in a single day.
This is no coincidence; the market is re-pricing BTC's attributes, as it shifts from being purely a risk asset to one that also has safe-haven qualities.
On the other hand, at the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Powell sent a hawkish signal, with the probability of a September rate hike soaring from 35% to 55.5%. The rising rate hike expectations should have pressured the crypto market, yet $BTC firmly holds the 78,000 level, with negative news unable to push it down, indirectly confirming that the buying power below is far stronger than the market imagines.
In contrast, Meme coins like Dogecoin and TrumpCoin remain highly sentiment-dependent; they tend to spike when the market stabilizes but also experience more severe pullbacks. Avoid blindly chasing highs.
Funds that bottomed at 77,000 on the day of the conflict have already realized profits, while many are still waiting stubbornly for the 75,000 entry point. The market often does not offer comfortable entry opportunities—prices rise when hesitant and fall when chasing highs.
The 78,000 level is suitable for phased positioning; entering with half a position allows for both offense and defense, reserving ammunition to cope with potential pullbacks in mid-September.
⚠️ Risk warning: The above is only a market view and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; do not blindly take heavy positions. The most dangerous moment on the chessboard is never the check itself, but the silent second before the check — the USD/JPY is hanging on such a silence at the 160 horizontal line.
As a grandmaster, I have seen too many opponents mistake "waiting" for "stability" under high pressure. The meeting between Bessent and Kazuo Ueda at the G20 was superficially a courteous sidestep, but in reality, it was a brief and ruthless tactical combination. Fiscal sustainability, interest rates, and foreign exchange — three pieces were thrown out simultaneously, like the classic Spanish opening repositioning — each move increasing the opponent's tactical burden.
Bessent's remark that "Japan can take action to support the yen" is like a queen exchange invitation in the middle game. If the opponent accepts the exchange, it means conceding the opponent's line of play and giving up strategic initiative; if avoided, the opponent must immediately adjust the pace of play, shifting time originally meant for domestic economic calculations to the foreign exchange defense line. Japanese officials' response that "central bank policy should only consider domestic conditions" superficially avoids this trap but actually exposes a gap in their layout: you can treat domestic inflation as the sole coordinate, but the exchange rate is precisely a hidden line derived from this coordinate, and it won't disappear just because you close your eyes.
Now, the market's focus is entirely on whether the next step will be "rate hikes" or "intervention." In chess terms, these are two completely different position evaluations. Rate hikes mean sacrificing some forces in the middle game to directly pressure the king in the endgame — it will change all fixed exchange imaginations between U.S. Treasury bonds and the yen, giving all pieces a new range of movement. Intervention is like directly launching a pawn on the flank, as if you suddenly push out a forgotten pawn at the most unexpected moment — in the short term, this move can defend the king's wing but at the cost of weakening your own pawn structure and leaving enough invasion paths for the opponent later.
Whichever move is chosen, the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk assets will reposition in the next few rounds. This is no longer a game of exchange rates alone but a global liquidity battle. What Bessent truly wants to control may not be the yen's numbers but the diagonal line connecting Tokyo, Washington, and global capital. When he uses words to squeeze the intersection between interest rates and fiscal policy, every move by the Japanese player must bear the pressure of time.
The most subtle point is that 140, 150, even 155 — coordinates once considered limits — have now become historical footnotes on the chessboard. 160 is important because it is the critical point where the player must make a real choice: continue shifting or suddenly change formation. All observers are focused on the possible "intervention" move, but I believe what deserves more attention is a kind of implicit concession — when the Bank of Japan is forced to respond to international capital attacks with domestic policy logic, any seemingly stable move may unknowingly cede space.
What Bessent did not say aloud is a long-term restraint: you are not playing chess against the U.S.; you are fighting against the rhythm of the entire world. Japanese officials think "domestic conditions" are their king's castle, but in fact, it is just a study room with drafts on all sides. The real game happens in places no boundary map can find.
The chess clock is ticking; neither side has time to waste. 160 makes every hesitation costly. #bessentjapanfxtalksThe overall market remained dull in the evening, with market volatility continuing to decline and capital attention dispersed. Many traders treat trading as a daily routine, and the market lacks a clear direction.
$BTC maintains a sideways range. MACD shows a divergence signal, but without a volume breakout above the previous high, it can only be seen as a consolidation, not a direct bottoming signal. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $216.7 million in a single day, with BlackRock contributing the vast majority of funds, reversing the outflow from the previous day. However, a single-day inflow does not equal a trend reversal; the sustainability needs to be observed, and one should not be misled by single-day data.
$ETH's performance is weaker than BTC, following the overall market's fluctuations, lacking incremental capital catalysts. It is difficult to see an independent trend in the short term and requires new news stimuli.
Meme coins like Dogecoin and TrumpCoin have much greater volatility than mainstream coins and are highly dependent on public opinion and hot sentiment. When the market is stable, they tend to have pulse-like rallies, but once the market weakens, the corrections are larger. Blindly chasing highs should be avoided.
$SPCX follows the Nasdaq adjustment, with decent buying on the market. Current entries are mostly speculative capital trying to get ahead; passive index funds will only execute on 9.18. Referring to historical trends, there is a possibility of early pumping to unlock selling. It is not suitable to blindly short before the 9.10-9.18 window, but one should be wary of the risk of selling to realize profits.
On the macro level, continue to closely watch employment data, BTC-Gold correlation, and AI giant earnings reports, all of which will affect market risk appetite.The MSCI index adjustment notice on my desk looks like a construction blueprint soaked in water—its edges curled up, with red lines marking SanDisk's position. At 2 a.m., what flickers on the market software isn't the price, but the rotation speed of the concrete pump truck's arm. xSNDK/USDT hangs above $1500, but this number means nothing to a structural engineer: it's merely a temporary load test value after scaffolding is set up; the real verification is whether the main structure can still stand after the supports are removed.
The capital flow of passive funds is essentially an approval document from the urban planning department. It changes the land where SanDisk is located from an "industrial control zone" to a "high-end commercial complex," so all funds tracking MSCI—those uniformly lined-up concrete mixers—must, after the closing bell, pour prefabricated mortar into the designated molds according to the volume on the weighting table. Once the molds are removed, the smooth surface is just an illusion; whether the building can reach its topping-out depends on whether the vertical rebar in the columns is thick enough and spaced closely enough. The passive funds' timed purchases are just like tower cranes lifting trusses onto embedded parts ahead of schedule to meet deadlines—the welding quality hasn't been inspected yet, and the wind will make them creak. The client agreement is the design specification, and the profit margin is the material acceptance report—if these two don't meet standards, even the most beautiful facade is just a paper mansion.
Looking further, the $31 billion NAND manufacturing base by Kioxia in Japan is a true "underground diaphragm wall" project. Its construction schedule extends to 2032, longer than any supertall building's construction period. It lays the foundation piles for artificial intelligence and cloud data centers—each model training consumes massive storage, just like every elevator and water pump in a skyscraper consumes structural lifespan. The number of NAND wafer layers determines the effective usable area, while the yield rate determines whether that floor slab can bear a live load of 250 kg per square meter. When AI training clusters sway like tuned mass dampers atop supertall buildings, storage bandwidth is the steel core column running through the core tube—without it, every computational force would be nullified. The market is pricing these parameters, but most people can't even understand the structural force diagrams.
Index inclusion is just a ticket to compete for the "Luban Award." A 5.5% stock price increase is far from enough to conclude anything about construction quality—it's just a banner hanging from the tower crane's jib. What investors really need to watch are Kioxia's equipment purchase orders and the data center customers' contract signing rates—these are the cement strength grades in the load-bearing walls. When contract signing volumes accumulate floor by floor like building loads, but capacity expansion can't keep pace, the whole building will develop plastic hinges at the yield points. When passive funds retreat, that wall built with infill blocks can't even withstand a typhoon.
True architects never drink champagne at topping-out ceremonies. They just lie by the window openings without glass installed at midnight, listening to the wind wailing through the structural beams—there lie all the secrets about reinforcement ratios and crack widths. #sandiskmscirebalanceThe afternoon market shows a subtle restlessness, with $BOME rising on reduced volume and prices quietly climbing. This trend is not reassuring—last week it just went through a round of surging then falling back, rising 20% before returning to its original level. Today it is pushed up again, but volume hasn't kept pace, inevitably evoking thoughts of a bull trap before distribution. $ZORA surged 33% yesterday and has shifted to sideways trading today, seemingly laying the groundwork for distribution. Whether $BOME will repeat the same pattern is worth watching closely. $PEOPLE rose 9.7% riding the residual heat of the Constitution DAO concept, but this narrative has long cooled off, with previous fluctuations ending in high-level traps. On-chain data also confirms concerns: retail investors are actively chasing in, while large wallets remain almost inactive, indicating an unhealthy chip structure. $TNSR previously showed a similar pattern of sharp rise followed by a steep drop, with both shapes quite alike. $LPT’s stubbornness is even more puzzling; the AI sector is generally sluggish, $ARKM continues to weaken, and news about the Grayscale trust has been repeatedly priced in. This sudden 14% surge now feels more like a last flash before the curtain falls rather than a value rebound driven by fundamentals. The three groups’ reduced-volume rises show a highly consistent picture, with short-term correction pressure building up. Market volatility is intense; please control your positions and assess risks rationally.Evening crypto market review shows multiple signals awaiting confirmation📉 Overall remains sluggish, volatility continues to decline, market attention is scattered, and many traders have turned trading into a daily routine.
$BTC maintains a sideways range, MACD shows divergence signs, but without a volume breakout above the previous high, it can only be seen as a consolidation signal; do not blindly bottom-fish. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $216.7 million in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the vast majority of funds, reversing the outflow from the previous day. However, a single-day inflow does not equal a trend reversal; it is necessary to observe whether inflows can continue to avoid being misled by single-day data.
$SPCX follows the Nasdaq adjustment, with relatively ample buying power. It is important to distinguish between front-running funds and passive index funds: the new equity weight will be announced after market close on 9/11, passive tracking funds will execute at the 9/18 closing auction and officially take effect on 9/21. Current entries are mostly front-running funds betting on expectations; referring to the historical market from 8/14 to 8/17, there is a possibility of early pumping to unlock selling. Before the 9/10 and 9/18 time windows, it is not suitable to blindly short; short-term is likely to be oscillating with a stable bias, but beware of the risk of selling to realize profits on good news.
On the macro level, keep a close eye on employment data, BTC-Gold correlation, and AI giant earnings reports, all of which will disturb market risk appetite.
The market is currently in a grinding phase; indicators, funds, and events can only be used as references. Do not treat divergence or single-day ETF inflows as a bottom-fishing decree. Be patient for volume confirmation, control position sizes, avoid high leverage, and wait for clear signals from the market.ETF funds show structural divergence, with BTC and ETH institutional buying logic changing
Recently, US spot crypto ETFs have indeed been flowing back, with weekly net inflows reaching nearly a 10-month high, but the money is not rushing in all at once; internal preferences have already split.
ETH is more stable: spot ETFs have continuous net purchases, with BlackRock's ETHA as the main recipient. The increment seems driven more by medium- to long-term allocation/staking expectations, with funds stepping in on pullbacks. This aligns with on-chain data—ETH is continuously withdrawn from exchanges, inventory is decreasing, and there is a strong tendency for self-custody.
BTC, on the other hand, is more trading-oriented: ETFs show buying during price rises and selling on pullbacks. Many of these are short-term/hedging/market-making funds that take profits when prices fluctuate. On-chain, BTC exchange inventories have slightly replenished, with some old coins moved back onto exchanges when prices rise, preparing for swing trades or hedging.
In short, ETH is attracting allocation capital, while BTC reflects trading sentiment. But don't overlook: both are risk asset funds, and if macro conditions tighten or interest rate expectations rise, ETFs could withdraw simultaneously. In the short term, ETH's structure looks stronger, BTC depends on liquidity and options walls; operationally, don't use the same logic to bet on both.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $HYPE This time it's worth a second look.
It is upgrading from a "trading platform" to "on-chain financial infrastructure."
Recently, the testnet showed signs of a suspected large compliant exchange deploying the HIP-3 test environment, including institutional-level features such as access control, whitelisting, and permission management.
There is no official confirmation yet, but if it materializes, the significance is considerable:
The compliance capabilities of traditional institutions + on-chain transparent settlement + perpetual contract market may truly be coming together.
HIP-3 itself allows third parties to deploy perpetual markets on Hyperliquid. Once traditional financial institutions start connecting, the potential of HYPE is no longer just "an exchange token," but it may begin to be revalued by the market as financial infrastructure.
$BTC, as the liquidity core of the entire crypto market, will ultimately also benefit from the continuous expansion of on-chain financial infrastructure.
The biggest focus now is not how much it will rise, but rather—who will be the first institution to truly bring traditional finance into HIP-3.$SPCX｜Index rebalancing game, don't mistake front-running for passive buying
The overall market remains sluggish, volatility continues to decline, capital attention is scattered everywhere, and trading gradually becomes a daily routine task, wearing down traders' mentality.
$SPCX is currently moving in line with the Nasdaq adjustment rhythm, with relatively sufficient buying power on the board, but it's important to distinguish between two completely different types of capital. The number of new stocks and official weights will be announced after the market close on 9.11, while passive funds tracking the index will execute at the closing auction on 9.18 and officially take effect on 9.21.
In other words, the capital entering the market now is mostly front-running capital engaging in early speculation, not passive buying driven by the index.
History can refer to the market from 8.14 to 8.17, when capital pulled prices up in advance to reserve space for selling after the unlocking on 9.10, which is a typical event-driven speculative game.
Therefore, before the time windows of 9.10 and 9.18 arrive, SPCX is not suitable for blind short selling. In the short term, it is highly likely to maintain a stable oscillating pattern, but beware of the "sell the fact" risk after positive news is realized.#Strategy与BitMine同步增持
In the same week, one had an unrealized gain of 2.5 billion, the other an unrealized loss of 5.3 billion.
Strategy sold stocks to raise 370 million USD, bought 4,603 BTC at an average price of 80,000 USD each, bringing total holdings to 845,000 BTC, with an unrealized gain of 2.54 billion USD.
BitMine spent 132 million USD to buy 53,500 ETH, with total holdings of 5.9 million ETH, showing an unrealized loss of 5.29 billion USD. It staked 86% of its holdings, earning an annualized staking income of 335 million.
▪️ Strategy model: leveraged buying of coins, profiting from BTC appreciation beta
▪️ BitMine model: staking for yield, earning cash flow beyond ETH
▪️ But the 335 million interest is only 1/16 of the 5.3 billion unrealized loss
The divergence is not about whether to buy, but about what kind of money the treasury earns.
To get a sense of scale: 845,000 BTC is 4% of the global total, 5.9 million ETH accounts for 4.9%—nearly 10% of the crypto circulating supply is being turned into balance sheet figures by companies.
Can staking interest outperform coin price declines? In the next market cycle, will you back a BTC treasury or an ETH treasury? $xNVDA Nvidia's fundamentals are explosive, but the market is hesitant.
Good news: Vera Rubin has secured orders from all major clients. Jensen Huang said it will be the fastest product ramp-up in history, with Q3 accounting for 20% of data center revenue. Pending orders total $2 trillion, and the top five cloud providers' capital expenditures approach $800 billion in 2026, possibly reaching $1.3 trillion in 2027. Revenue could still grow 70% next year. 58 analysts have buy ratings with an average target price of $323 (current price $217, still 49% upside).
Reason for hesitation: growth is slowing, Q2 grew 106% but Q3 guidance is mid-80%, decelerating quarter by quarter. The past five earnings beats were all above expectations but the stock fell after four of them. Forward P/E is 18x, the lowest in 5 years, but "low valuation" does not mean "immediate rise"; catalysts are needed.
Key signals: If the CLARITY Act procedural vote passes on September 15, the entire crypto and AI sectors will benefit. Also, new Russian crypto regulations take effect today; Sberbank predicts $46 billion in trading volume in the first year, adding to global computing power demand.
Strategy: Hold long-term without selling, wait for Vera Rubin's volume data release to look for new catalysts. #BroadcomDellAIResults
How is this capex financed?
Hyperscalers aren't funding $50B+ backlogs from cash flow they're issuing debt at a pace unseen since dot-com. Earnings this week are also a story about credit markets absorbing that issuance while 10Y yields climb on their own.
AI capex pulling on capital, government debt quietly losing real value both bets that money now beats money later.
Watch if AI spending starts pressuring yields directly, not just inflation.
NFA.Everyone is doing BTCFi, but STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY are fundamentally different asset classes
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is only for outlining track logic and technical architecture, and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto is highly volatile, please be sure to DYOR.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is booming, but many people tend to confuse STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY. In fact, although these four targets all carry the "BTCFi" label, their underlying positioning, security models, and business logic are completely different. Some are building elevated bridges, some are creating new continents, and others are doing "security business." Today, we will thoroughly clarify these four tracks in 1000 words.
1. Core Positioning: Four Completely Different Species
STX (Stacks): The "veteran" of Bitcoin native L2
Stacks is one of the earliest explorers of Bitcoin Layer 2. It uses a unique PoX consensus and Clarity language, aiming to implement smart contracts without modifying the Bitcoin mainnet.
Core logic: Connect assets through sBTC, allowing users to play DeFi on top of Bitcoin. After the Nakamoto upgrade, it achieves second-level confirmation, but its non-EVM nature means it is a relatively closed yet highly native track.
CORE (Core DAO): The "independent L1" with its own power grid
CORE is not a layer two but an independent Layer 1 public chain. It pioneered the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, "borrowing" idle computing power from Bitcoin miners to secure its own chain.
Core logic: Build an EVM-compatible "Bitcoin power grid." It serves not only retail users but also focuses on institutional-level lstBTC (liquid staking Bitcoin) business, aiming to become the underlying infrastructure for RWA and payments.
MERL (Merlin Chain): The "ZK express lane" for inscription players
MERL is an authentic Bitcoin ZK-Rollup Layer 2 network. It was created to solve congestion and high gas fees for BRC20 and inscription assets on the BTC mainnet.
Core logic: EVM-compatible, specifically serving liquidity release for BTC native assets (Ordinals/Runes). Its success heavily depends on the activity of the inscription market.
BABY (Babylon): The "wholesaler" of Bitcoin security
BABY has the most unique approach. It is not a chain for running applications but a Bitcoin staking protocol.
Core logic: Allows users to stake BTC directly on the Bitcoin mainnet, "renting out" the security of these BTC to other PoS public chains (such as the Cosmos ecosystem). It is currently the only solution to achieve BTC non-custodial staking.
2. Security Watershed: Who is truly guarding your BTC?
This is the most hardcore metric to distinguish these four projects.
BABY (top tier): BTC always remains in the Bitcoin mainnet UTXO, no cross-chain bridges, no wrapped assets (no wrapping), pure cryptographic staking. This is currently the safest trust model in the industry.
CORE (non-custodial): User BTC is locked in Bitcoin mainnet's CLTV time lock, private keys are not handed over to anyone. The main risk lies in the state synchronization mechanism of relay nodes (Relayers).
STX (consortium-based): Connects assets through sBTC, relying on a decentralized signer alliance. Although there are economic incentives and penalties, there is still a theoretical risk of alliance collusion.
MERL (custodial): User BTC enters MPC multi-signature custody addresses, mapping out stMBTC. Assets leave the mainnet, trusting the honesty of the MPC custodian, with counterparty risk.
3. Token Value Capture: Who is paying for the tokens?
STX: Burn model. Users consume STX when using the sBTC ecosystem; staking STX can earn BTC rewards (BTC-denominated yield).
CORE: Dual staking necessity. To obtain advanced yields, staking CORE is required; the official plan is to use revenue from institutional businesses like SatPay and lstBTC to buy back tokens.
MERL: Profit buyback. The official promise is to use 50% of ecosystem profits for MERL buybacks. On-chain gas primarily consumes BTC, MERL is mainly used for node staking and governance.
BABY: Security rent. PoS public chains pay Babylon fees to obtain Bitcoin-level security. Meanwhile, BABY is also the network's gas and governance token.
5. Summary
STX is the "conservative reformer" on Bitcoin, pursuing nativeness and stability.
CORE is the "radical infrastructure fanatic" in the Bitcoin world, pursuing scale and institutionalization.
MERL is the "traffic operator" of Bitcoin assets, pursuing speed and inscription popularity.
BABY is the "behind-the-scenes arms dealer" of Bitcoin security, pursuing ultimate cryptographic trust.
In this cycle, understanding which layer the asset is on (L1/L2/middleware) and who holds custody (non-custodial/custodial/consortium) is far more meaningful than just watching the K-line.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFi US-Iran Military Conflict Escalates Again: Market Impact and Investment Analysis
The US-Iran confrontation continues to intensify, with market focus centered on the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil supply, and the risk of spillover in the Middle East situation. Both sides have launched successive military actions, driving the market to reprice geopolitical risk premiums.
Core Logic of the Escalation
The US military struck Iran's rocket launch facilities on Larak Island, with the US stating that the facility posed a potential risk of laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran launched ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan and attacked US targets in the Gulf region. US President Trump stated that the US would impose severe retaliation on Iran.
This round marks another cycle of direct military confrontation between the US and Iran in over a month: the US strikes targets in Iran → Iran retaliates against US bases → the US threatens further retaliation. Neither side has explicitly stated an intention to start a full-scale war, but the chain of retaliation has formed, significantly increasing the risk of miscalculation and further escalation.
Jordan's strategic position is becoming increasingly critical. The country hosts US military bases and serves as an important hub for US air operations in the Middle East.
The greatest risk remains centered on the Strait of Hormuz. The US strike on Larak Island essentially revolves around this global energy chokepoint. If Iran continues to use missiles, drones, and mines to threaten shipping through the strait, global crude oil transportation will be impacted. About one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through here, making oil prices highly sensitive to changes in the situation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 $TRUMP The Trump family's crypto money printing machine
I've long figured it out, who is still risking it by rushing into the President coin?
Today the volume is as thin as paper, the team casually smashed through it with a single move. Their team pumped coins into the Solana pool, withdrew USDC to cash out, and the market not "crashing" in essence is just unloading. Just after that: another batch was injected on-chain today, withdrawing 3.39 million USDC, just like on 8/23, transferring okx.$SPCX has now reached 143, and it really does seem like it could continue to surge, but at this level, I am actually more cautious.
Many viewpoints on Wall Street believe that $SPCX's current valuation is clearly too high. A new type of rocket company valued at the $2 trillion level—aren't these expectations too exaggerated?
From a purely fundamental perspective, I personally think the $70–80 range might be relatively reasonable. The current stock price is largely driven by market sentiment, Starship expectations, and Elon Musk's influence.
After all, $SPCX's core business is still rockets, Starlink, etc., and the Q1 financial report is still in a loss state. The Q2 report is expected to be released in December; if performance still shows no significant improvement, the pressure from the high valuation will sooner or later return to the market.
So at this 143 level, the divergence between bulls and bears is actually very large.
For those already holding positions, if the funding rate and position size are manageable, I actually think there is no need to easily close positions due to short-term fluctuations; but if leverage is too high, risk control is necessary.
The Starship launch plus unlocking expectations are pushing $SPCX to a critical point where sentiment and fundamentals are in a tug of war.
#SPCX #Starship #USStocks
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults In the first week of September, what I fear most now is not a sudden crash of BTC, but that the US employment data is "not bad enough".
This sentence sounds a bit counterintuitive.
The market has already pinned many hopes on a policy shift in September: weak employment = rising expectations of rate cuts = a breather for risk assets, everyone understands this logic#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Rebirth: My Trading in High School Campus 💻
(200u Stable Compound Interest Chapter)
$ETH Ethereum's one-hour chart is actually quite clear. Earlier, it dropped sharply from 2534 to 2386, then although it rebounded, it clearly faced resistance again around 2470-2480 🤔
Now the price is back around 2466, and the rebound strength is obviously not as strong as the previous drop #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Gm! September has begun!
This is historically bitcoin:native's worst performing month. But August was down there too and just had an amazing one so that's just to show how seasonality doesn't always apply.
Having said that, I think a lot of investors were waiting to allocate in September due to the historically mediocre August & September months. Since Q4/October is usually when the big upside moves for Bitcoin have started.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Is the broad altcoin rally season over? Understanding the new real-money liquidity from SOL, KAS to HYPE
The eternal question retail investors care about most: When will the altseason actually arrive?
The reality is harsh: the previous era of "Bitcoin rising and all the trash altcoins soaring together" with a broad market rally has most likely ended permanently.
According to the latest ecosystem data from Binance Research and DefiLlama, as Bitcoin consolidates around the 80,000 mark, capital is extremely precisely flowing into three new strongholds:
First, high-performance trading public chains. Represented by Solana (SOL), on-chain active addresses and DEX trading volume continue to lead, with speculative capital always clustering in ecosystems with the most concentrated wealth-creating effects;
Second, fair distribution narratives. Represented by Kaspa (KAS), a pure PoW architecture, which, thanks to no pre-mining and pure community consensus, shows strong capital absorption in a volatile market;
Third, real yield and buyback dividends. Represented by Hyperliquid (HYPE), the leading on-chain perpetual derivatives platform, which relies on solid fee cash flow to buy back tokens, completely overturning the previous "pure hype, zero income, high valuation" VC air coins.
In the era of stock competition, only tokens with network effects, fair consensus, and real value generation capabilities can survive. Clinging to air coins with no income will only lead to ruthless elimination in a structural bull market. $TRUMP The Trump family's crypto money printing machine I've long figured it out, who is still risking it by rushing into the President coin? Today the volume is as thin as paper, the team casually smashed through it with a single move. Their team pumped coins into the Solana pool, withdrew USDC to cash out, and the market not "crashing" in essence is just unloading. Just after that: another batch was injected on-chain today, withdrawing 3.39 million USDC, just like on 8/23, transferring to OKX $BTC funding is at the 84th percentile, meaning traders are paying more than usual to keep longs open.
But 1-month IV is only at the 16th percentile, meaning the options market expects a relatively calm month.
Futures OI is also 0.4σ below its 1Y trend.
If this gap closes, we could see longs get flushed or volatility pick up fast#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Coinbase's CEO made another statement: on-chain reputation will replace FICO credit scores. His logic is that a public ledger can prove repayment ability, multiple lenders share the same data, and on-chain lending can already provide unsecured credit lines up to $3,000.
Some bloggers directly poured cold water on this, and I agree with most of it: on-chain identities can be created in bulk at zero cost, reputation scores can be manipulated, and real lending with actual money still relies on collateral. The hardest part of credit evaluation is not the data, but preventing fraud. On-chain reputation can be used as an auxiliary reference, but replacing FICO? It's still too early.Strategy Is Buying $BTC Again. After Selling 6,916 $BTC This Summer
The company just bought 4,603 BTC for $370M, paying an average $80,318 per coin; its first Bitcoin purchase since June 22.
That's interesting because the summer had looked very different. Between June 30 and August 10, Strategy sold 6,916 BTC for roughly $430M as part of its new BTC monetization program.
📊 After the latest purchase:
🟠 BTC holdings → 845,050 BTC
🟠 total acquisition cost → $63.7B
🟠 average purchase price → $75,412
🟠 USD cash reserve → $1.61B
🟠 STRC repurchased last week → $152M
So the old Strategy story of "just keep buying Bitcoin" is getting more complicated. It can now sell BTC, rebuild cash, repurchase its own securities and then buy Bitcoin again when it chooses.
Saylor may still be the world's loudest $BTC bull, but Strategy itself is starting to look more like an actively manage treasury
#BTCGoldCorrelation Data from DefiLlama: Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours reached $1.33 billion, surpassing Ethereum's $993 million, and also exceeding BNB and Base, ranking only behind Solana. Network layer revenue was $963,000, three times the combined total of Ethereum, Solana, BNB, and Base.
However, this surge is supported by Meme trading, with on-chain TVL only at $725 million. There's quite a bit of fluff. My judgment: the exchange's favored chain doesn't lack traffic entry points, but it lacks real usage that retains users. Don't treat single-day data as a trend; whether the volume remains next week is what really counts. 过去两轮牛市复苏期收官后均经历主升前经典二次探底（忽略20年312黑天鹅） ┌── 链上数据详情 ──┐ 图中上方指标为比特币价格；图中下方指标为比特币链上短期持有者MVRVVolatile and Correlated to Beta: Bitcoin and Gold
Bitcoin and gold have been highly volatile and correlated with the S&P 500 (SPX), which suggests what matters. What's changed -- other than the crypto's peak from an extreme in 2025 and similar for the metal in 1Q -- is that gold's annual volatility premium vs. the SPX is about 2.2x, well above its roughly 1-to-1 20-year average.
Full report on the Bloomberg here: {BI COMD}#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults The most common mistake people make with the non-farm payrolls is only looking at the result, not what the market was originally expecting.
Suppose the market has already priced in "cooling employment and rising rate cut expectations."
Then the non-farm payrolls actually show cooling.
Logically, this should be bullish for $BTC, right?
Not necessarily.
Because if this news has already been bought into by the funds, then after the data is released, it might actually turn into profit-taking.
This is the most troublesome part of the market.
Prices never wait for the news to happen; they anticipate the news in advance.
So the same non-farm number can lead to two completely opposite market moves depending on the market environment.
That's why I’m doing less and less of this simple judgment:
"Non-farm is below expectations, so BTC goes up."
This sounds reasonable, but it’s far from enough when actually trading.
You also need to know how much the market has already risen before the release, how the dollar is moving, where rate expectations stand, and whether the funds have already priced in this result.
Sometimes the most exciting moves come from data that looks very ordinary.
Because the market expected A, but the result is A plus a little bit.
The numbers are correct, the direction is correct.
But the price just doesn’t rise.
Then a bunch of people get confused.
Actually, the market has already written the answer into the price in advance.
So this time for the non-farm, I want to see "how much the expectation and reality differ."
The data is just the answer.
What really determines how the price moves is what the market originally thought the answer would be.😈 $ZORA — Time to Short?
Just opened a short on $ZORA . 📉
With around $43M open interest and a 6:4 long/short ratio, longs look heavily crowded.
Too much retail positioning on the long side could leave ZORA vulnerable to a sharp pullback.
Now let’s see if this short plays out. 👀🐻#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Robinhood Chain has officially been live for just over two months, and yesterday's single-day profit was 2.66 million, already surpassing Ethereum's 1.27 million, making it the second most profitable blockchain overall, only behind $SOL's 5.07 million. But the main driver is meme coins: since going live, there have been over 22,600 meme coins trading, with most of the revenue coming from here, which is definitely not good news for the cryptocurrency sector. And even the top Solana only makes about 5 million a day, while $NVDA's daily revenue exceeds one billion, basically incomparable. Blockchain is still in its infancy stage, so these amounts really aren't something to flex about; the goal is to become like Nvidia or Apple. But it’s undeniable that Robinhood Chain has quite a few users, and $HOOD is also a stock with a lot of potential. In late August, ETH experienced a rare strong rally for the year. From August 19 to 21, ETH rose from about $1916 to an intraday price of $2546, a significant increase surpassing BTC over the same period. Afterwards, the price did not quickly retreat but consolidated near the $2500 level, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounded significantly from the mid-year low. This rally was first ignited by improved risk appetite and short squeezes, but the real discussion in this article is the supply and demand changes behind the rally: the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a weekly net inflow of nearly $700 million, about 42 million ETH staked, exchange balances dropped about 15% compared to early June, and corporate treasuries continue to increase holdings. Several forces are combining, compressing the amount of ETH available for immediate sale. Based on this, author Itai Smidt suggests that ETH's circulating supply has tightened significantly compared to June, and new funds entering thinner markets may generate greater price elasticity. However, a decrease in supply does not necessarily mean a price increase; this round also includes a large amount of short covering and leveraged funds, so the sustainability of ETF inflows has yet to be fully verified. Therefore, what the market needs to confirm next is not only whether ETH can break through $2550, but also whether institutional funds can continue to flow in, whether ETH/BTC can hold onto the rebound gains, and whether staking and corporate holdings continue to absorb new supply. These variables will determine whether this rally is a quick short squeeze or an ET#OpenAI广告业务年化营收达10亿美元
ChatGPT's advertising business launched less than 200 days ago, with annualized revenue reaching 1 billion USD, becoming the third major monetization stream after subscriptions and API, solidifying the commercialization story ahead of the IPO. The ads mainly target free and low-cost plan users and have now expanded to more than forty countries, with self-service ad tools simultaneously opened in Europe, the Middle East, and other regions.
However, advertising revenue still accounts for a small proportion of total income, with a significant gap remaining to the full-year target of 2.5 billion USD, while also facing controversies over user experience and differentiation from competitors.
BTC and ETH markets are not directly affected; the main market trend still depends on macro liquidity.
On-chain AI-Agent and AI marketing concept tokens have only received sentiment-driven boosts, benefiting mainly from thematic factors.
AI commercialization has been validated, but thematic speculation should distinguish real business from hype, and blindly chasing hot targets is not advisable.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. Hormuz oil tankers attacked, is BTC about to get hit again just as it catches a breather?
Two supertankers were struck by unidentified objects in the Strait of Hormuz while leaving the Persian Gulf.
Brent crude oil immediately broke through $92, the probability of a September rate hike surged to 65%, and U.S. Treasury yields hit new highs.
For BTC and ETH, the chain of transmission is clear and direct: geopolitical conflict → oil price rise → rate hike expectations heat up → risk assets come under pressure. BTC remains volatile around 78K, ETH struggles near 2450, with geopolitical risks acting as a short-term suppressing factor.
If oil doesn't spiral out of control, BTC can still hold; if oil keeps soaring, BTC will keep taking hits. Watch more, act less, wait for the shoe to drop.
$BTC $ETH The dull market is always broken by sudden macro events. Once the tension in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, crude oil rises and gold falls. A better buying opportunity than yesterday appeared, so I decisively increased my position.
The logic behind the oil price rise is straightforward: the tension in the strait reduces transport capacity, so oil prices go up.
The gold decline was also verified in the last round, meaning gold has good liquidity. Once oil prices rise, sovereign states will sell gold to exchange for oil to maintain social operations. Once this trend gains momentum, funds will rush in during every sudden event. The longer-term logic is that the probability of a rate hike in September has been rising recently, and rate hikes are bearish for gold.
The US stock market and Bitcoin usually also fall due to liquidity risks.
Trading mainly depends on what level you are operating at. For example, looking at yesterday, being long gold and short oil was indeed a bit early. For ultra-short-term trades, there have already been several waves of fluctuations, but if you want to hold for at least a few weeks, you can gradually increase your position according to the market.
Currently, the round of conflict escalation that started over the weekend shows no signs of ending yet. Based on past experience, it will last several days, but it is unlikely to escalate to a higher level. After all, the US military's war fatigue is well known. Even if the strategic smokescreen to cover the conflict is deployed, the subsequent conflict is just for show. $CL $XAUT Regarding WLFI, most people still associate it with "that crypto project from the Trump family." But its USD1 stablecoin issuance has already reached around 4 billion dollars, ranking it among the top five stablecoins. In mid-August, the OCC conditionally approved its application for a national trust bank, so issuance, reserves, and custody might soon shift from BitGo to its own management. The original post redefines it as "dollar financial infrastructure," which I think is a description closer to the truth than just a label.
The competition among stablecoins is shifting from "who issues more" to "who can solidly implement compliance and custody." Whether institutions dare to use it depends on reserve transparency and regulatory licenses, not community hype. For ordinary people, don’t chase it just because the name has political connotations, and don’t ignore it due to bias—just look at its reserve audits and custody structure.Market Brief: Contrarian Short Trade Amid SNDK's Violent Rebound
Market Overview
SNDK rapidly surged from 1450 to 1579 in a short time, with extremely high pre-market volatility; the intensity of the move rivals that of altcoins. Traders positioned short near 1553, setting stop-loss above the previous high at 1580, planning to exit if the breakout occurs, or wait for a pullback if it doesn't.
At the same time: ZEC rebounded to 846 but failed to reclaim the key level at 887, showing weak rebound strength; BTC also started a rebound but with limited upward momentum, overall a passive recovery. All three rebounded simultaneously but lack certainty for long-term holding.
Market Logic
SNDK remains a high-speculation asset, with fundamentals, event catalysts, and capital short squeezes intertwining, causing short-term pulses at any time.
This trade is a contrarian play with a stop-loss, acknowledging the market can still push higher, clearly defining the failure boundary by price rather than subjectively assuming the price must fall.
ZEC and BTC's weak rebounds reflect insufficient buying power in the overall market; the rebounds are more of an oversold correction without forming a new offensive trend.
Trading Insights
In contrarian trading, the most important thing is not to bet on direction but to predefine where your judgment is proven wrong and strictly execute stop-loss.
Even if the market feels "irrationally high," never hold on without stop-loss; short squeeze moves can continuously exceed expectations.
In collective rebound markets, without a clear main driver, avoid blindly holding long-term positions; prioritize short-term speculative trading. There are two conflicting things happening in the prediction market this week. The compliance route took a hit: The Ninth Circuit Court ruled Kalshi's sports contracts as sports betting, which falls under state jurisdiction, and since sports revenue accounts for 70% of its business, this ruling strikes at its core. On the other hand, the permissionless route is accelerating, with Hyperliquid's HIP-4 launching on the mainnet, not serving US users, so regulators can't catch up for now. Polymarket is also rumored to have raised $1 billion with a valuation of $21 billion, and money keeps flowing in.
The prediction market is splitting into two species: one trying to enter the regulatory system, the other trying to bypass it. For ordinary people, don't treat it as a guaranteed winning casino; its essence is an information market, where winning or losing depends on information asymmetry. If you want to play, first think clearly: How is your information source stronger than the market's pricing?Volatility is building as NFP approaches.
$BTC BTC keeps testing $79K while $ETH ETH struggles below $2.5K. The market feels ready for a breakout.
Key catalysts: Middle East tensions, NFP, and CPI. The Fed is widely expected to stay on hold in September, but the real volatility could come around these events.
Altcoins are moving hard too. $ARB has been volatile, and I’m watching for another short setup after consolidation.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Axis released a set of data, and I read it twice. They received 660 manual corrections, but only 161 segments, 24.4%, were actually used to train the robot. Even more counterintuitive: feeding the model with the entire human operation reduced the success rate from 40% to 36.7%; leaving only the key short segments that correct errors raised the success rate to 48.3%.
More data is not always better; feeding in garbage dilutes the signal. This is also why they recently changed the badge system: 500 trajectories, 30 consecutive days, completed within 3 seconds. On the surface, it's a task, but in reality, it's screening human behavior patterns. My judgment: in the future, feeding data to robots will devalue quantity and increase the value of quality. Those who want to participate should not spam volume but focus on refining a single scenario; this kind of data will be valuable in the future.The largest lending protocol on Cronos, Tectonic, was exploited, with losses estimated at $75 million. The method was not new: the governance token TONIC had very thin liquidity, its price was pumped 100 times, and then used as collateral to borrow real money. The chain's reaction is worth pondering; validators directly shut down the entire chain, rolling back to before the attack, effectively erasing nearly two hours of everyone's transactions, including innocent users' transfers. Only about $6 million had already crossed to Ethereum and cannot be recovered.
Cutting off the network can stop losses, but the cost is that the chain is no longer trustworthy. The money you put in might disappear because someone else got into trouble. Don't put large assets into protocols with governance tokens that have high collateral factors but thin liquidity; this is the most direct lesson from this round. After an incident, first see if the official side rolls back or compensates anyone, then decide whether to keep or exit your position.#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
Right now, many people are anxious: if there really is a rate hike in September, will this bull market for $BTC and $ETH come to a halt? After all, the market's bet on a September rate hike has risen to 66%.
But let's calmly analyze — does the Fed really have the capacity to raise rates, and dare it continue tightening? Even if it does act in September, how much of a stir can it really cause?
One key fact is: the Fed hasn't officially acted yet, but the market has already "consciously" priced in a rate hike. After Walsh spoke, the 2-year US Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points, meaning traders preemptively completed part of the Fed's operation. Whether the officials hike or not, the cost of capital has already been pushed up.
Since the rate hike's negative impact has been largely priced in, and the market has already experienced a drop, when the boot truly drops, the shock will actually be much weaker — the expectation gap has been mostly closed.
Moreover, this correction would have come sooner or later even without Walsh's hawkish remarks. After continuous rallies, consolidation and clearing of floating positions is a necessary phase of the market; the speech just happened to be the trigger.
Looking at the longer term, this round of BTC breaking 120,000 and ETH surpassing 5,000 is basically a done deal. Short-term fluctuations won't change the medium- to long-term direction.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 . $BONK rose 17.3% in 24 hours, with a market cap close to $290 million, surging to the top of OKX's gainers' list. The price increase alone is quite impressive, but I checked the transaction volume and saw only $2.5 million in 24 hours. For a meme coin, this volume can't even support decent turnover.
I even checked the transaction distribution: there were only a few big orders, mostly small orders worth hundreds or thousands of dollars pushing upward—a typical sentiment market. Meme coins are like this—they only cost a little when they get listed, and as soon as the rankings are listed, they're just following the crowd. But the problem is, when you see the leaderboard, it's often already the latter half. By the time you decide whether to chase, they've probably already sold their shares 😂