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US-Iran clashes push Brent crude above $90, but gold is hammered below 4400, with whales still betting on oil breaking $100!
US-Iran clash again, a tanker was blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude rose nearly 3% to close above $90. Geopolitical risk premium is fully priced in, but gold simultaneously fell below $4400.
The same geopolitical event causes oil to surge and gold to plunge—because higher oil prices push up inflation expectations, the market bets on a more aggressive Fed rate hike, US Treasury yields rise, and gold is crushed by "rate hike expectations."
Gold's safe-haven attribute is failing. The higher oil prices rise, the stronger the rate hike expectations, and the harder gold falls.
Smart money is betting on extreme scenarios. Polymarket whale tetrose continues to add tail bets at $90, $95, and $100 during the oil surge, while shorting the S&P 500 at 50x leverage with a position average price of 7759 points. The logic is clear: geopolitical risk pushes oil prices up → stubborn inflation → Fed rate hikes → risk assets under pressure.
My judgment: In the short term, the oil price geopolitical premium is not over, but gold will remain under pressure due to the rate hike logic. The medium-term "US dollar credit devaluation" logic for gold is intact, but don't rush to catch the falling knife in the short term; wait for Friday's nonfarm payrolls release.
$XAU $CL $BZ
#EmploymentDataIntensiveRelease, #WashPolicyStanceTested
#USIranClashAgainTankerBlockedBrentBackAbove90
#USTreasurySecretaryBecerraMeetsJapanForexAndRateHikeFocus Han Xinyi, CEO of Ant Group, listed "cryptocurrency payments" as one of the four major global AI payment paths on a domestic forum. This statement carries far more weight than it appears.
Let's first remember one identity: Han Xinyi, CEO of Ant Group and Chairman of Alipay, holding the largest mobile payment gateway in China.
Recently, at a payment clearing forum, he categorized global AI payment practices into four types: payment technology platforms like Stripe, cryptocurrency companies like Circle/Coinbase, card organizations like Visa/Mastercard, and AI platforms like Google/OpenAI.
It sounds like an industry scan without a stance. But the second type—"using cryptocurrency as a payment medium directly supporting automated machine-to-machine payments"—comes from such a person under China's usual cautious tone toward crypto, and it carries significant weight. This is not a casual mention; it is more like a cautious signal.
To understand this sentence, you first need to look at how much Ant has bet on AI payments. By the end of May, Alipay's AI payment transactions had surpassed 300 million, covering 95% of mainstream intelligent agent frameworks. Han Xinyi's exact words were: "Agents are the execution carriers, tokens are the value carriers"—what he wants to do is not a single product, but a complete AI-native payment infrastructure.
And the ones who truly scale up in this new "machine-to-machine" scenario are precisely the second category he mentioned. Here is the data: In the past 12 months, on-chain AI agents have completed a cumulative total of about 1.76Gold at $4380, are you ready to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: hawkishness is terrifying, the dollar is fierce.
In the past week, gold fell from 4700 to 4380, a drop of nearly 7%. Today it plunged directly from 4452, hitting a low of 4364, currently struggling around 4385.
But the 100-day moving average is 4366, and today's low was 4364, just 2 points away. It held.
The medium- to long-term uptrend channel remains intact, with the 50-day moving average at 4218 and the 100-day moving average at 4366 supporting from below. The pullback is your chance to get on board; don’t be scared silly.
First thing: Scared by rate hike expectations? The market overreacted.
What did Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh say at Jackson Hole? PCE inflation at 3.7%, 4.1% over 6 months, still accelerating. "If there is not enough confidence that inflation will return to 2%, there is still work to be done."
Just these few words, the market immediately pushed the probability of a September rate hike from 30% to 60%, the dollar index soared, and gold took a heavy hit.
Three rate cuts in 2025, now the federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%. Economic growth just over 2%, unemployment at 4.3%. Raising rates in this environment? Does the Fed really want to crash the economy?
The market overinterpreted the hawkish remarks, gold dropped 7%.
Second thing: You were scared silly by short-term noise, but central banks are quietly buying.
Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end gold target at 4900, expecting central banks to buy an average of 50 tons per month in 2026, far above pre-2022 levels.
ETFs and retail investors are selling, central banks are buying. The de-dollarization narrative remains unchanged. Has the Middle East conflict, Strait of Hormuz risk, or global geopolitical fractures disappeared? Oil prices are rising, inflation expectations are heating up, the dollar is strong short-term—but these are all just noise.
Third thing: A technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared.
The daily low today hit 4364, the 100-day moving average is 4366—precisely touched and then rebounded.
This is no coincidence. Around 4380 was a repeatedly tested support level in July-August, and it has held again now. The daily chart remains within the uptrend channel, the medium-term structure is intact.
Although the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are bearish, the drop from 4461 to 4364 is nearly $100, and a short-term oversold signal is forming.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
100-day moving average at 4366 precisely held, technical support effective
Central banks buying 50 tons monthly, fundamentals very strong
Goldman Sachs maintains 4900 year-end target, institutions haven’t fled
Dropped from 4700 to 4385, down 7%, short-term oversold
De-dollarization + Middle East geopolitics, long-term logic unchanged
On the other side:
Fed hawkish remarks, rate hike probability up to 60%
Dollar index strengthening, US Treasury yields rising
Today’s 1.5% plunge, short-term momentum weak
If JOLTS and nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, another drop possible
Resistance above: 4400-4430 → 4450-4460 → 4530 (200-day moving average) → 4600
Support below: 4360-4370 → 4320-4300 → 4218 (50-day moving average) → 4100
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If clear stop-fall signals appear at 4360-4370, lightly go long with stop loss at 4320, target 4400-4430. If rebound stalls at 4410-4435, lightly go short with stop loss above 4450, target 4360.
Data traders:
Tonight’s JOLTS and ISM are the biggest variables. Soft data → rebound holds at 4400; hot data → possible breakdown and accelerated decline.
Mid-term positioning:
Build positions gradually in the 4300-4250 range, based on central banks’ continued gold buying + de-dollarization. Goldman Sachs’ 4900 year-end target remains, but the path will be more volatile.
This gold pullback is just a "stress test" of the bull market—
99% of people think "rate hikes will crash gold," but central banks are quietly buying, Goldman Sachs maintains 4900 target.
The day 4364 holds, you will realize:
It’s not that gold is weak, it’s that you always sell at the bottom.
What is your gold cost?
At 4385, do you dare to bottom-fish?
$BTC $XAU $XAUT #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 US-Iran clashes push Brent crude above $90, but gold struggles below 4400, while whales continue betting on oil breaking $100!
US-Iran clashes again, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Brent crude rises nearly 3% to close above $90. Geopolitical risk premium is fully priced in, but gold simultaneously falls below $4400.
The same geopolitical event causes oil to surge and gold to plunge—because higher oil prices push up inflation expectations, the market bets on more aggressive Fed rate hikes, US Treasury yields rise, and gold is crushed by "rate hike expectations."
Gold's safe-haven status is fading. The higher oil prices climb, the stronger the rate hike expectations, and the harder gold falls.
Smart money is betting on extreme scenarios. Polymarket whale tetrose continues to add tail bets at $90, $95, and $100 during the oil surge, while simultaneously shorting the S&P 500 at 50x leverage with an average entry price of 7759 points. The logic is clear: geopolitical risks push oil prices up → inflation stubborn → Fed hikes rates → risk assets under pressure.
My judgment: The short-term geopolitical premium on oil prices is not over yet, but gold will remain under pressure due to the rate hike logic. The medium-term "US dollar credit devaluation" logic for gold remains intact, but don't rush to catch the falling knife in the short term; wait for Friday's nonfarm payrolls to land before deciding.
$XAU
$CL $BZ
#美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元
#贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The US core PCE in July remained at 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month; the overall PCE rose to 3.7% year-on-year. The data did not continue to worsen, but it also did not bring the long-awaited inflation decline surprise to the market. The real question arises: with core inflation stuck at 3.3%, how will Waller set the tone at Jackson Hole? Should the market's expectation for easing be cooled down again? The answer is clearer than the market imagines. In Waller's speech at Jackson Hole, he did not directly give a rate decision for any future meeting, but his policy framework is very clear: the 2% inflation target will not change. If it cannot be confirmed that inflation is returning to the target at a sufficiently fast pace, the Federal Reserve still "has work to do." 1. The biggest problem with the 3.3% core PCE is not that it is "high," but that it is "stuck." The market's previously most anticipated logic was: inflation continues to decline → Federal Reserve policy pressure eases → future financial conditions gradually loosen. But the July PCE data did not reinforce this logic. The core PCE year-on-year remained at 3.3%, indicating that although inflation is already far below the highs of previous years, there is still a significant gap from the 2% target. The overall PCE year-on-year reached 3.7%. More notably, Waller gave a somewhat hawkish assessment in his speech: the US PCE year-on-year is 3.7%, with an annualized increase of 4.1% over the past six months, and inflation has not shown a sufficiently clear improvement trend. In other words, the Federal Reserve's biggest concern now is not "inflation spiraling out of control again," but another more troublesome...$BTC $ETH $SOL are not followers; they are leverage barometers. Without ETH/BTC repairing altcoins, there is no spring; ETH spot ETF saw a reversal inflow of +102 million on 8/28, with 10 consecutive inflows, but the price at 2,460 is weaker than BTC, indicating buying is more about allocation than aggression. 2,500 is the bullish baseline; breaking 2,480 targets 2,350. If ETH doesn't rise, ZEC flying again is just fireworks; don't mistake ETF inflows as a mandate for an independent ETH rally. #BTC high-level consolidation, stronger correlation with gold #SanDisk MSCI rebalancing takes effect, NAND valuation in focus #Stripe consortium reportedly exits, PayPal drops nearly 13% At the end of the previous cycle, I was not optimistic about $SOL. I vividly remember a data point: in November 2021, the price of SOL was $250, with a market cap of $73B; by September 2025, the price of SOL was still $250, but the market cap had risen to $135B. That's an outrageous inflation rate.
At the end of August, the SOL community just passed a proposal, in short: it will accelerate deflation, starting from the first half of 2029, the annual inflation rate will become 1.5% and remain stable thereafter.
This cycle, I have started to be optimistic about SOL, with a personal long-term target of $400+. When a downtrend channel lasts for a long time and the breakout volume significantly increases, the price increase could reach 1.5 to 2 times the height of the channel.This time the focus is not on "banks researching Bitcoin," but on banks actually entering the $BTC spot market. On September 1st, 24X completed the platform's first crypto spot transaction, with the asset being BTC. Standard Chartered acted as the Liquidity Taker, Cumberland DRW provided liquidity, and both the crypto spot and FX used the same institutional-grade trading infrastructure. The official announcement did not disclose the amount, nor did it specify whether Standard Chartered was buying or selling, or whether it was proprietary trading or executing on behalf of clients. 1. BTC is entering the trading systems familiar to banks. The real breakthrough this time is not just "banks participating in crypto." More importantly, BTC spot has begun to be integrated into the FX trading workflows familiar to traditional institutions. This means that for large institutions, entering the Bitcoin market is becoming more like accessing a new tradable asset rather than building an entirely new crypto system. 2. Bitcoin is transitioning from an "alternative asset" to routine institutional trading. Previously, banks entering crypto were mostly focused on research, custody, ETFs, or client services. The change now is that banks are directly participating in the BTC spot market as real trading counterparties. As traders can handle BTC using increasingly familiar institutional infrastructure, the boundary between crypto and traditional finance will continue to blur.When a company buys Bitcoin as often as it buys coffee, the market's character quietly changes. Have you ever thought that what really slows prices down isn't retail investors stopping buying, but that some people simply don't plan to sell? This week, while watching the market, I noticed a fact overshadowed by daily price fluctuations: corporate treasuries bought over $640 million worth of crypto assets in one week. This number doesn't make headlines like ETFs do, but its signaling significance may be more worth pondering than a single day inflow. The most prominent example is Strategy. After ten weeks of silence, it bought 4,603 BTC in one go, spending about $370 million, with an average price of about $80,318. Now its total holdings have pushed to 845,000 BTC, which is close to $63.7 billion at current prices. This isn't bottom-fishing; it's executing faith according to plan. Then comes ETH. Bitmine added 53,501 ETH, about $131 million, its largest purchase since June, with a total holding close to 5.9 million, already accounting for about 5% of Ethereum's total supply. Honestly, this ratio is no longer financial allocation but more like strategic positioning. Then Strive, who bought another 1,800 BTC, about $143 million, directly squeezing into the top five listed companies' Bitcoin holdings. The capital preference behind these moves is a different kind from short-term traders. They don't look at the four-hour candlestick and don't care if they can hold tonightFamily, gold has indeed been a bit rough these past two days. On August 25th, it surged to around 4697, then turned around and has since retraced about 5.5%, continuously falling below the 200-day moving average. Previously, everyone was shouting to buy gold in chaotic times, but now that chaos has arrived, gold itself is in turmoil.
There is a reason for this drop. After the hawkish remarks from Wash, US Treasury yields shot up sharply, and the market's expectations for a rate hike in September clearly intensified. Coupled with rising oil prices reigniting inflation concerns, people who used to buy gold fearing inflation are now selling gold first, anticipating possible rate hikes.
This situation is also quite interesting for the crypto space. A drop in gold doesn't necessarily mean BTC will rise. If the underlying factors are a stronger dollar, rising real interest rates, and declining global risk appetite, then highly volatile assets like BTC are also vulnerable to short-term hits. Currently, BTC is oscillating around 78,000, and the resistance between 80,000 and 82,000 hasn't truly been overcome. Oscillation is a good thing; a market without oscillation isn't a healthy market.
The trading idea is simple: the core resistance zone is between 80,000 and 82,000. Only a volume breakout and a stable hold above 82,000 will turn this adjustment into a buildup, aiming for 85,000 or even higher. Below, watch the 76,000 support; if that doesn't hold, look at 72,000. Be patient; opportunities come from waiting. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $XAU $BTC $ETH SMART MONEY IS ROTATING?
Institutional flows are sending a signal. On Aug. 31, spot $BTC ETFs rebounded +$216.7M, while $ETH attracted +$87.7M, extending its inflow streak to 11 sessions. For the week ending Aug. 28, $BTC and $ETH ETFs attracted roughly $924.5M and $824M.
I’m watching: $ETH → ETF flows + ecosystem strength $SOL → ETF potential + on-chain growth $XRP → institutional demand $HYPE → buybacks + revenue $LINK → RWA + infrastructure
If $BTC stays stable, rotation may be starting. The market is entering a critical window. After the Jackson Hole annual meeting, investors did not get a clear rate cut path from Walsh; instead, they received a more important message: the Federal Reserve will not inform the market of answers in advance but will let data determine policy direction. Therefore, the upcoming intensive release of U.S. employment data will become the true battleground to test Walsh's policy logic. The question also becomes clearer: If employment continues to remain resilient, will the Federal Reserve reinforce a hawkish stance? If employment starts to cool down, will BTC see new liquidity expectations? 1. Employment data is becoming the new core of market pricing. In the past, the market mainly focused on inflation. But as the core PCE remains high and the pace of inflation decline slows, the Federal Reserve's focus is gradually shifting to another question: Can the U.S. economy withstand a longer period of high interest rates? Employment is the key answer. If the labor market remains strong, it indicates that companies still have the capacity to absorb the high interest rate environment, and the Federal Reserve is under little pressure to quickly shift to easing. Conversely, if new employment significantly slows and the unemployment rate rises, the market may reprice "economic cooling" and "policy easing." Currently, Walsh's policy framework is very clear: it does not rely on a single data point, nor does it commit to a rate path in advance, but adjusts policy based on the latest economic changes. This means the importance of each future employment report will be amplified. 2. What the market truly worries about is not weak employment, but employment being too strong. Many investors believe that employment decline aThe US stock spot ETH ETF has achieved 11 consecutive days of net capital inflow, with a cumulative inflow exceeding $1.6 billion in this round. The latest single-day inflow was $87.68 million, with BlackRock's ETHA product alone absorbing $59.9 million. The continuous capital inflow proves that institutions are making long-term, normalized allocations to ETH rather than short-term speculative trading.
However, despite the sustained capital inflow, ETH has been fluctuating around $2470 without triggering a strong one-sided rally. There are two key reasons for this:
First, the capital volume is insufficient to leverage a large market cap rally. ETH's total market cap is close to $300 billion, and a cumulative inflow of $1.6 billion is unlikely to create scarcity-driven squeezes; moreover, ETH has risen about 30% in the past two weeks, and much of the positive impact from the ETF launch has already been priced in by the market.
Second, there is a clear divergence between volume and price. Although ETF funds continue to flow in, spot trading volume has not increased correspondingly. Dense overhead positions and short-term profit-taking continue to sell, firmly suppressing upward space, resulting in capital inflow without price movement.
Key focus areas for the subsequent market:
✅ Holding $2400: indicates solid institutional support and effective bottom support
✅ Breaking through $2500–2560: only then can capital advantage translate into a substantial upward trend
Conversely, there is potential risk: if ETF inflow intensity continues to weaken and the price fails to break through the $2500 resistance level, it means the current positive factors have been overdrawn in advance, and the market will likely enter a high-level consolidation phase. $BTC $ETH $SOL The US debt surpassing $40 trillion does not necessarily mean the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. On the contrary, high debt means the government’s interest burden is increasing, making it more inclined to cut rates; but the problem is that inflation remains high, with July's PCE reaching 3.7%, and recent rises in oil prices and US Treasury yields are instead forcing the Fed to consider rate hikes. The September 16 FOMC meeting currently has the market pricing about a 65% chance of a rate hike.
I am cautiously bearish on BTC in September. If there is a rate hike in September and US Treasury yields continue to rise, BTC could retest the $70,000 to $76,000 range; if there is ultimately no rate hike and dovish signals are released, it could challenge the $85,000 to $90,000 range again. Therefore, the period around September 16 is very likely an important turning point.
The CLARITY Act has not failed but has been postponed to continue progress in September. The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote for September 15, but it requires 60 votes. The biggest obstacles remain bipartisan disagreements on ethics provisions, developer protections, and commodity regulation. $BTC $ETH $OKB $ETH2440 held, the opportunity for a rally tonight has arrived!
During midday, ETH's dip had several rebounds but lacked strength, causing many to panic again.
But here’s the key point: support near 2440 has clearly strengthened, the price has stabilized again, and the bears have not continued to push it down.
Looking at the liquidation map, there are over 300 million in liquidation chips near 2500, which is likely the key battleground between bulls and bears tonight.
The market is already warming up, on-chain funds are continuously flowing in, and buying support is increasing.
As long as 2440 holds, the bullish outlook remains, with 2500 as the first target. Fans have already been notified to position early; now we just wait for the market to play out.$BTC Well, this is interesting. Price is currently moving lower while open interest has increased significantly. At the same time, however, spot buying has picked up strongly again. This suggests that new short positioning is entering the market while spot buyers are actively trying to absorb the selling pressure. We therefore have two opposing forces at play here, and it will be very interesting to see which side gives way first. If spot demand remains strong, shorts could eventually get trapp#英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元
The leader has something to say
NVIDIA invested $3.5 billion in MediaTek's convertible bonds. MediaTek issued 3.9 billion in bonds this round, and NVIDIA took nearly 90% of it. Alphabet also participated, but the amount was not disclosed.
NVIDIA bought bonds, not shares. MediaTek is using the money to develop AI chips, and NVIDIA retains the right to convert the bonds into shares in the future. No controlling stake, no consolidation, no explanation of acquisition premium; if MediaTek's business grows significantly, it can still benefit from equity appreciation.
The core is not the money, but NVLink Fusion. MediaTek's custom AI chip business can now directly use NVIDIA's NVLink Fusion interconnect technology, including NVHBM memory. Customers who commission MediaTek to design custom XPUs will have the required NVLink connections, memory architecture, advanced packaging, and rack-level technology for mass production all jointly provided by NVIDIA and MediaTek.
Custom ASICs have long been seen as the most likely direction to take market share from GPUs, with Broadcom and Marvell as veteran players in this field. MediaTek's AI chip revenue target is $2 billion in 2026 and aims to reach $7 to $12 billion in 2027.
AI infrastructure is the main battlefield, with PC and automotive sectors advancing simultaneously. Locking in an ecosystem position with $3.5 billion, Huang (NVIDIA's CEO) has clearly calculated this.
On the market front, holding over 78,100 long contracts with a stop loss at 76,000, targeting 80,500 to 81,000. Continuing to hold short positions on ZEC; the two positions do not conflict directionally and have separate allocations.
$BTC $ETH Give me some strength!
If it can't break 2500 by 11 PM, I'll close the position.
Close the position and switch to short.
This long at 2436 currently has about 60% unrealized profit, but after $ETH rebounded near 2480, the upward momentum clearly slowed down.
I set a time limit for this long because the market keeps failing to break through, and the cost-effectiveness of holding on will get lower and lower.
If it reaches 2500, take profit as planned.
If it’s still grinding below by 11 PM, I’ll end the long and look for an opportunity to go short based on the position at that time.
$BTC is weaker now, oscillating around 78,000, with the price below the short-term moving average; several rebounds failed to firmly reclaim 79,000.
So tonight I’m paying more attention to BTC’s performance: if it continues to be weak, it will be harder for ETH to break 2500 alone.
This time I’m not planning to wait indefinitely for the price to give a result; 11 PM is the deadline I set for this long.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Crude oil surged, how to view the tech and crypto markets tonight?
Recently, macro factors have been tugging back and forth, with rapid switches between bulls and bears, and frequent stop-loss spikes making chasing gains and cutting losses risky on both ends. Combining the current market situation, here are my thoughts.
First, let's talk about the two core triggers for the recent rise in risk:
① Fed officials' hawkish statements continue to ferment: Waller openly signals rate hikes, September rate hike expectations rise rapidly, and rate cut expectations cool significantly. Market funds tighten in advance, US Treasury yields rise, directly suppressing high-valuation tech and risk assets.
② Unexpected strength in oil prices brings secondary pressure: Geopolitical tensions push Brent crude to hold above $92, energy price hikes reignite inflation concerns. Under the shadow of inflation, funds flow out of growth sectors seeking safety, pressuring tech and crypto sectors.
On the market front, after a strong rally in US AI hardware, chips have loosened, BTC and ETH rebounds are blocked, and investor sentiment is cautious.
My personal view is clear: the market is in a short-term high-level oscillation pattern, do not blindly chase longs; treat rebounds primarily as opportunities to reduce positions and set up shorts.
Tonight during the US session, I will focus on tracking the linkage between US Treasury yields and oil prices, waiting for clear signals before making moves. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC 2025年1月30日，Uniswap V4正式上线。彼时，市场对它的期待更多停留在“V3的升级版”——更低的Gas费、更高效的架构。然而，到了2026年4月，以uPEG、SATO、Slonks为代表的Hooks项目集中爆发，V4累计交易量突破4,220亿美元，并在2026年8月占据了DEX季度交易量约一半的份额。Hooks初始化数量突破4.1万个。 这场爆发引出了一个更深层的追问：V4 Hook究竟是一次技术升级，还是一场真正的范式转移？它能否将DeFi从“乐高时代”推进到“可编程金融时代”？ 一、什么是“乐高时代”？ DeFi的“乐高时代”始于2020年的“DeFi Summer”。这个比喻的精髓在于：每个DeFi协议都是一块独立的乐高积木，开发者可以将它们拼接成复杂的应用，但每块积木本身的形状和功能是固定的。 在Uniswap V3时代，AMM的规则是写死的——x*y=k的恒定乘积曲线，固定的费用结构，标准化的流动性池。开发者可以“组合”这些协议（比如将Uniswap的流动性池接入Compound借贷），但无法修改协议内部的运作逻辑。如果你想要一个动态费用的AMM，你得自己从头写一Market Brief: Market Divergence from the Perspective of Large ETF Inflows
Market Overview
Last week, crypto ETFs set a record with $3.2 billion in weekly inflows. BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP all simultaneously hit new highs for weekly inflows this year, with institutions making large-scale purchases. Occasionally, there are short-term outflows in a single day, such as the $200 million BTC outflow on August 28, but over a longer period, large net weekly inflows are maintained.
Post Perspective: Candlestick charts can be manipulated by news and short-term spikes to create illusions; fund flows are the underlying signal. The market repeatedly oscillates and prices jump up and down, but institutional funds continue to enter, interpreted as price suppression to accumulate positions. There is no need to overanalyze short-term candlestick price fluctuations.
Market Logic
ETF funds represent medium- to long-term institutional allocation power. Large and continuous inflows support the market bottom, but inflows do not immediately drive prices up.
Funds are slow variables, while candlesticks, geopolitics, and data are fast variables; the two can show phase divergences. Institutions keep buying, allowing for market oscillations, pullbacks, and spike washouts.
It is also important to be objective: inflows can slow or turn into outflows; it is incorrect to assume that as long as there are inflows, prices will never fall. Single-day outflows do not directly indicate a trend reversal; continuous period changes must be observed.
Trading Insights
Fund flows are an important reference dimension but should not be the sole trading holy grail; price structure must be considered together.
Institutions are accumulating, but this does not mean short-term positions cannot continue to be tested; oscillations and washouts will still occur. $BTC closed both July and August in the green.
Since 2013, every time that happened, September ended red.
And this September has another major risk; the CLARITY Act vote on September 15.
If that gets delayed again, history could repeat itself with another red September.#Employment data released intensively, Waller's policy stance under scrutiny
I am Cige. This Thursday, four employment reports will be released in a cluster, which will be the real judge of whether there will be a rate hike in September.
Waller has made it clear at Jackson Hole: inflation is still too high, overall financial conditions are far from restrictive, and the labor market is still in a state of full employment. If inflation cannot "clearly and quickly enough" return to 2%, the Federal Reserve "still has work to do." The probability of a rate hike in September has surged from 35% to 65%, the two-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points, and the market is already pricing in a rate hike, now waiting for data to confirm.
July nonfarm payrolls were down 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000, signaling a cooling in hiring demand. If August data continues to weaken, rate hike expectations will be extinguished. If the rebound exceeds expectations, Waller's hawkish stance will have data support.
BTC is currently fluctuating around 77,600, with 80,000 turning from support into resistance. Strong employment data solidifies rate hike expectations, and BTC continues to be under pressure. Weak employment data cools rate hike expectations, giving BTC a chance to retest 80,000. Don't bet on the data; wait for it to land before making a move. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL Japanese government bond yields surge past 3%! The global "cheap money" source is drying up, and $BTC's "code credit" has instead become hard currency
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has hit 3% for the first time this century—just 1.5% at this time last year, doubling. More importantly, the U.S. is pressuring Japan to continue raising rates to curb yen depreciation, turning traditional monetary policy completely into a political tool. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's fixed supply and the narrative of code as law are once again being highlighted by the market.
But don't celebrate too soon. If Japan's rate hikes trigger unwinding of yen carry trades, global risk assets including crypto will face liquidity siphoning—history's lesson was in August 2024 when Japan raised rates and Bitcoin dropped 15% in a single week.
Retail investors say: Japan's interest rate is the water temperature, and Bitcoin is the people on the boat. When the water temperature changes, don't think you can sit steadily on the fishing platform. #日韩同日抛售美元护汇 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #美财长贝森特会谈日方，外汇与加息受关注
Intervention lost 96.4 billion, the yen reverted to its original state in one month — US Treasury Secretary changed stance: time to raise interest rates.
▪️ 7/31 US-Japan joint intervention, a record 15.4 trillion yen spent in a single month, totaling 27 trillion yen this year
▪️ Effect: 164 pushed back to 155, then returned to 160 after one month, recovering most of the losses
▪️ Besent at G20 said face-to-face: the next step should be rate hikes, I have market information unknown to others
▪️ 9/17 rate hike probability priced at 73-90%, 10-year Japanese bonds break 3% for the first time since 1996
The disagreement is not whether the yen can strengthen, but whether to buy time by spending money (intervention) or change the game rules (rate hikes).
Intervention is a pulse, rate hikes are a trend. But rate hikes come with debt — once carry trade unwinding ignites, liquidity assets like BTC will be the first to feel the pressure. The Japanese side is also firm: monetary policy does not listen to the US.
Do you bet the yen will survive by intervention or by a hard landing through rate hikes? This time, the issue wasn't about the price of $BTC, but what kind of company BTC Treasury actually was. On September 1, Strategy officially submitted its opinion to MSCI, opposing its new index access review plan. In their letter, Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le directly referred to the plan as "discriminatory, arbitrary, and misguided," and requested its withdrawal. MSCI is currently discussing an additional review mechanism for companies with "operating assets less than 50% of total assets." 1. What Strategy is truly worried about is whether it will be treated as a "non-operating company." MSCI's new approach does not only look at whether the company has business, but will further review companies with less than 50% operating assets. In the simulation screening, both Strategy and Metaplanet may face deletion, while SharpLink is under observation. This pushes the BTC treasury model to a very core question: If a company's main asset is Bitcoin, is it still a business or more like an investment vehicle holding financial assets? 2. What truly affects this issue is the capital cycle of BTC treasury companies. Many BTC treasury companies actually rely heavily on capital markets: enter the index → obtain passive funds, → stock price and liquidity are better, → financing ability is stronger, → continue buying BTOn the first trading day of September, the crypto market experienced a very fragmented rally. Last weekend, it was repeatedly suppressed by hawkish speeches from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, causing massive long positions to be liquidated. Today, however, the market quickly recovered, $BTC firmly rebounded above 78,000, and the market greed index rebounded to 69, returning to the greed zone. Many people wonder: with so many negative news hitting new lows, why hasn't the coin continued to hit new lows? Today, let's talk about several core real contradictions in the current market. 1. Fed rate hike expectations still hang overhead, but institutional funds have not fled. The aftermath of Jackson Hole's hawkish remarks remains, with the market pricing in a 64% rate hike probability in September. US Treasury yields are rising, and risk assets are under overall pressure—this is a real macro negative factor. But a key reversal signal emerged: the Bitcoin ETF, which had ended nine consecutive net inflows, recorded a net inflow of $216.7 million again on Monday, with BlackRock's products contributing the vast majority of the buying and institutional funds returning. This forms the core tug-of-war now: on one side is the Damocles sword of the Fed's possible rate hike, and on the other is the real buying from spot ETFs continuously entering the market. Negative expectations exist, but real money is reluctant to exit, resulting in the current ambiguous and volatile situation. With the overall net inflow of over 3 billion yuan in ETFs in August, it is difficult to break out of a one-sided sharp decline in the short term. 2. Geopolitical conflict logic fails, safe-haven funds do not blindly embrace Bitcoin The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, oil prices soared, as usual#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
Wash's hawkish remarks shattered the market's optimistic expectations for rate cuts. He clearly stated that the pace of inflation decline is slower than expected, and the Federal Reserve may restart rate hikes. The probability of a rate hike in September rose accordingly, and market sentiment quickly shifted toward monetary tightening trades.
Risks had actually been lurking in the US stock market for some time. Although the S&P 500 hit a record high, the rally was highly concentrated in a few leading stocks. The divergence between the index and market breadth reached a nearly 30-year extreme, and the underlying support for the rise is weakening. The previously frenzied AI hardware rally has quickly faded, with many late buyers giving back profits. The unilateral upward phase has basically ended, and high-level oscillation has become the new normal.
In a volatile market, heavy bets on a single direction are most to be avoided. Recently, many traders have revisited the permanent portfolio by Brown: allocating one quarter each to stocks, long-term bonds, Bitcoin, and cash, with regular rebalancing. This system-enforced approach helps to buy low and sell high, reducing subjective market timing by trimming positions during surges and adding during drops.
Under the current tightening expectations, equities and crypto volatility have increased, long-term bonds can hedge downside risk, and cash reserves provide dry powder for bottom-fishing. The era of one-way trends is over; balanced allocation and dynamic rebalancing are more prudent strategies at this stage.$USELESS USELESS 0.10173, BonkGuy is back, saying "The current bullish sentiment exceeds the previous BONK." As soon as this statement came out, it surged 36%. It jumped from 0.067 to 0.104, and the market cap rose from 47 million to 73 million, all within a few hours. The question is whether this time, after his shout, it will continue to rise or follow the old script.
Last time BonkGuy shouted, TRUMP went from 1.7 to 3.68, then sideways before selling off. Before that was BONK, and before that DOGE. Each time he shouted near the start of a rally, but after each shout, most followers ended up stuck at the peak. When he doesn't shout, the price moves sideways; when he shouts, the price moves, and then nothing follows. Whether you see him as a shout-trading golden finger or a precise top-escape signal depends on whether you entered before his shout or chased after.
SAR=0.073 below, EMA21=0.076, EMA55=0.068, price is above all moving averages. RSI6=83.22, KDJ J value 98.57, short-term overbought signal is very clear. If 0.104 doesn't hold, the next support is around 0.09; if it breaks out above 0.105 with volume, the upside space may open, but those chasing after the open already have a 10% profit, and selling pressure is accumulating.
At the 0.10 level, those chasing are betting that BonkGuy's shout will continue, while holders are considering whether to take some profits near 0.104. Every time BonkGuy shouts, new people rush in to take the bags. Will this time be different? Comment below, are you still on the ride or have you already run? 🫡The interesting part of today’s market isn’t the pullback. It’s why BTC is struggling despite fresh ETF demand. BTC is around $78.1K and ETH near $2.46K, while spot ETF demand has remained supportive. ETH has also just come through a strong multi-session inflow streak. But September opened with a different macro backdrop. U.S. yields are pushing higher, the 10Y is around 4.79%, oil is back above $92, and rate-hike expectations have increased. That creates a direct headwind for risk assets — incMarket Brief: Geopolitical News Impacts BTC Trading
Market Overview
An oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was attacked, causing sudden geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East. BTC quickly plunged in the short term, dipping to 77778. The Persian Gulf is a key oil passage, and escalation of conflicts will suppress global risk assets.
The 15-minute chart shows bears dominating, with KDJ entering oversold territory, suggesting a slight recovery is possible, but blind bottom-fishing is not recommended. Short-term support is at 77778, with resistance above 78650. Approaching the non-farm payroll data release, there is a dual risk from news shocks and economic data.
SNDK also pulled back by -4.36%, with the market expecting a rebound to challenge the 1650 level.
Market Logic
Geopolitical news causes instantaneous shocks, creating rapid spikes but not necessarily changing the existing mid-term trend. Sudden news often triggers mass stop-loss orders, causing sharp drops, and after overselling, technical small rebounds are likely.
The real test will be the release of the non-farm payroll data; the resonance of news and data will amplify volatility. The storage sector SNDK remains driven by MSCI rebalancing and storage cycle narratives, moving independently with high volatility from the broader market.
Trading Insights
For news-driven sharp drops, avoid immediately bottom-fishing just because of oversold conditions; there will be secondary fluctuations after spikes.
During the dual window of geopolitical and data risks, prioritize reducing leverage positions to guard against two-way rollercoaster moves.
Even if some individual assets have strong fundamentals, it is difficult for them to remain completely unaffected when broad market risks emerge. $TRUMP TRUMP Market Personal View — Pump and Dump Script
Looking at the TRUMP liquidation map, 💹
The long position support below is at 2.250, with a cumulative long liquidation intensity of 8,349,300.
The short position resistance above is at 2.570, with a cumulative short liquidation intensity of 12,995,000.
Just saw on-chain news that the Official Trump team transferred out 11.01 million TRUMP tokens, worth 26.65 million USD, the chips have already been moved.
If they dump the market right now, it wouldn’t make much sense.
On one hand, dumping at the current price would crash the coin price, making it hard to sell chips at an ideal profit; on the other hand, it would boost a bunch of short positions above, letting short sellers profit directly, which is disadvantageous for the team on both ends. 📉
According to previous scripts, it’s more likely to be a pump and dump.
First, pump the price up to eat through the accumulated short positions above, heat up the sentiment, and attract retail investors to chase in, targeting around 2.8–3.
Once there’s enough buying at the high level and liquidity opens up, they will gradually distribute the large chips they hold in batches, and after selling out, then turn around to dump the market.
Of course, this script depends on the overall market environment cooperating and follow-up funds entering. If the market weakens and no one wants to chase the high, the pump won’t work, and the script will fail, resulting in a slow shakeout.
Large on-chain transfers are a risk signal; even if there is a short-term pump, the essential purpose is still to dump, so don’t blindly chase the high. 💹
The above is just a personal market analysis; the market can move differently at any time and does not constitute investment advice. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Guys, when I checked the trending topics today, $ARB (Arbitrum) jumped straight to number one, rising nearly 30% in 24 hours. How did a coin that climbed from its historic low of $0.07 suddenly become the brightest player in the market? Let's have a good chat today. Why can $ARB top the trending list? To put it simply, it's three words — it can collect rent. Here's what happened: US brokerage Robinhood has launched its own chain called Robinhood Chain, which is built using Arbitrum's technology (Orbit technology stack). According to Arbitrum's expansion plan, all chains built using their technology must return 10% of their net protocol revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem. Everyone knew about this, but no one paid much attention, because when Robinhood Chain first launched, it only made $100,000 a day, while Arbitrum only got $10,000—barely enough to squeeze into the gaps. But things have changed these past two days. Robinhood Chain's daily trading revenue suddenly soared to over $2 million. Someone did the math—at this rate, Arbitrum could earn about $73 million a year. From 10,000 to 190,000 per day, who wouldn't be confused by this growth rate? Plus, Arbitrum just completed the ArbOS 61 upgrade and integrated Succinct SP1 zkVM, so there's a story to tell on the technical side. Technical upgrades + explosive revenue,bitcoin: Native aggregated order flow update:
> The spot market continues to buy during the price rise, and the price is rewarding this capital flow.
> Meanwhile, fresh long perpetual contracts are entering, which improves the quality of the trend in the short term.
This does not worry me at the moment. What I want to see is fundamental strength pushing the price into key levels, then assess how the capital flow changes and how the price reacts there.
> The funding rate has also significantly turned positive now. As we discussed before, a positive funding rate itself is not bearish
-> It just indicates that the demand for leveraged long exposure has become slightly more expensive
> Combined with the rise in open interest (OI), this tells us that long demand is willing to pay a premium for exposure, which can quickly translate into vulnerability.
As long as the price continues to reward this positioning, it’s fine. The important signal appears when long exposure continues to accumulate but the price stops advancing—just like we discussed yesterday.
That is when the structure becomes fragile, and those longs may convert into opposite capital flow through liquidation.
If strength is rewarded above key levels, we still have additional resonance near 80.2k, where there is a single leveraged liquidation level that overlaps well with the remaining wick fill/relief area.
To me, this still looks like a top formation process.
This does not mean the top has formed. It just means we are seeing some anticipatory components around the top.
More work is needed before I call it confirmed.#OpenAI广告业务年化营收达10亿美元
Google took 20 years to reach 224.5 billion, OpenAI hit 1 billion annualized revenue in 200 days.
▪️ Launched less than 200 days ago, annualized revenue of 1 billion USD, covering 40+ countries
▪️ 1 billion weekly active users break down to about 1 USD contribution per person per year
▪️ Overall annualized revenue approaching 40 billion, advertising accounts for 2.5%; target is 2.5 billion, less than 1/90 of Google's search
▪️ Ads only run on free and Go tiers, with tens of thousands of advertisers
The debate isn't whether OpenAI ads can grow big, but whether to take Google's existing market or grow the overall pie.
What OpenAI wants isn't this 1 billion, but to prove before IPO that free traffic can be monetized sustainably. Net loss of 38.5 billion in 2025 — the real target is Google's and Meta's market.
Are you betting advertisers will start shifting budgets to ChatGPT, or is this just an IPO card?US-Iran conflict escalates again: What BTC really needs to guard against is not war, but inflation reignited by oil prices
Direct military confrontation between the US and Iran has resumed, with Brent crude oil rising to around $91. More critically, only about 5 commercial vessels are currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, far below the recent average of about 14, signaling renewed global energy supply risks.
This is not purely bullish for BTC
Geopolitical risks may indeed strengthen the narrative of gold and BTC as "scarce assets"; however, continued oil price increases also push up inflation expectations, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to ease. The market's pricing for a September rate hike has already risen to about 66%, and gold has even fallen today despite heightened safe-haven demand, indicating that interest rate pressure is offsetting safe-haven demand.
So the real chain now is:
War escalation → Oil price rise → Inflation expectations rise → US Treasury yields pressured upward → BTC high volatility.
This kind of market is most dangerous for heavy one-sided bets
Geopolitics determines the magnitude of volatility, the Federal Reserve determines the ultimate direction of risk assets. When uncertain, cash itself is also a position. $BTC #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 In-depth Analysis of the 2026 Digital Currency Market: The Institution-Led Era, Old Cycle Experience Is Losing Its Effect After cycles of bull and bear cycles, the crypto market in 2026 has completely left behind the barbaric era dominated by retail investors. ETF scaling has been implemented, regulatory frameworks are gradually clarifying, and traditional finance is entering large-scale cross-industry sectors. The entire market's capital structure, market logic, and sector rotation rhythm have undergone structural changes. Many traders are still trading with the mindset of previous bull markets, applying past experience to the current market, resulting in BTC hitting new highs while their own accounts struggle to make money. Understanding the underlying changes in this year's market is the only way to avoid the loss trap caused by eradicated misalignment. 1. Restructuring the Capital Structure: Institutions Become the Core of Pricing, Retail Investors' Voice Is Diluted. In past bull markets, the market was driven by retail investor FOMO, and once Bitcoin started, funds spilled out and counterfeit users collectively celebrated. By 2026, institutional funds have become the most important pricing force in the market. Bitcoin spot ETFs have become the most important entry point for incremental funds, with funds no longer just short-term speculation but more from asset management, family offices, and corporate asset allocation. Funds are allocated monthly and quarterly in batches, no longer the previous surge-like hot money inflow. This brings a very intuitive market feature: the BTC chassis is extremely resilient; there will be support during major drops, but it is unlikely to see the continuous violent rallies of the past. The period of volatility and bottoming has been extended, and insertion and shakeout have become more frequent. The capital logic of Ethereum ETFs has changed again; institutions no longer just treat ETH as a Bitcoin follower, but are beginning to value staking#Strategy与BitMine同步增持
At the end of August, Strategy spent about $370 million to purchase 4,603 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 845,100 BTC, with funds mainly sourced from issuing additional common shares;
Meanwhile, BitMine increased its holdings by 53,500 ETH during the same period, pushing its total holdings to 5,901,100 ETH, of which over 5.06 million ETH were directly staked, expected to generate approximately $335 million in staking cash flow annually.
These two giants represent two different treasury approaches for publicly listed companies:
The first is Strategy's "pure capital leverage model." It heavily relies on continuous stock issuance financing and the unilateral appreciation of Bitcoin, essentially using capital market valuation premiums to blindly leverage long positions;
The second is BitMine's "yield-generating self-sustaining model." It not only bets on Ethereum price appreciation but also values the stable, real cash flow from PoS staking, using endogenous cash generation to hedge against secondary market volatility.
However, while continuous issuance to buy coins provides strong spot buying pressure, it also brings the double-edged sword of equity dilution and asset concentration. Once the coin price undergoes a deep correction, the company's net asset value per share (mNAV) will suffer from valuation markdown backlash.
Investors now are competing not just on which of BTC or ETH rises faster, but on which of these two treasury models can truly sustain and increase intrinsic value per share. Exclusive September Analysis of ETH｜Three Indicators Basically Define the Upper Limit of This Rally
To judge ETH's next four months, I will look at a lot of data. Today, I will only discuss the three most important indicators.
First and most important: the annual moving average.
ETH:
Up about 90% in 2023
Up about 46% in 2024
The two-year annual moving average increase totals about 136%.
But in 2025, it only dropped about 11%.
And so far, the 2026 annual moving average still only dropped about 17%.
This raises a very clear issue:
First, the annual moving average is suppressing this year.
Second, the current drop is far from enough.
After two consecutive years of big gains, last year only retraced 11%, and this year so far has only dropped 17%. From an annual perspective, this adjustment is still very limited.
Even if this year’s final drop is calculated at 30% based on the annual moving average, using last year's closing price near 2970:
By the end of this year, it should still be around 2000.
So if in Q3 or even October ETH can be pushed back to:
2800—3000,
I would define this as a very clear spot realization zone.
Because from the annual moving average perspective, there is already a huge downward space between this price and my year-end judgment.
⸻
Second: Q2 quarter closed near 1570.
At the end of June, ETH closed near 1570.
If Q3 surges to 3000, it means nearly doubling in one quarter.
Nearly doubling in a quarter is a very strong performance even in a bull market, let alone this year which is a bear market.
So from the quarterly gain perspective:
2800—3000 already belongs to the top-tier allocation of this rally.
Going higher is mathematically possible, but the odds are completely different now.
⸻
Third: ETH lending interest rate.
This is data many people simply do not observe.
At the start of this rally, Binance ETH staking loan's flexible interest rate was about 4%.
Now ETH has risen so much, but the rate is still only about:
5.1%—5.2%.
That means throughout the rally, the cost of borrowed funds only increased by about 1 percentage point.
This indicates, at least from this funding indicator:
The incremental leveraged funds truly entering the market are not as enthusiastic as the price performance suggests.
From my past observations of truly sustained major trend markets, flexible lending rates can reach about 20% or even higher.
But now it’s only about 5%.
At the same time, looking at ETH weekly volume, there is also no sustained volume expansion matching the price rise.
So the three indicators actually point to the same conclusion:
The annual moving average drop is still insufficient.
The quarterly rally amplitude is already very high.
Incremental funds have not fully entered.
This is why my judgment has not changed:
Q3 is a rally, Q4 still guards against a decline.
Why will Q3 rise? I have already said:
This is not a bull market story, but a math problem.[Data Weekly Simulation] Nonfarm Payrolls Showdown: Two Possible Directions and Response Plans for BTC and ETH
BTC is currently holding above 78000, building momentum, while ETH is holding at 2459. This week, the intensive releases of JOLTS, ADP, and August nonfarm payrolls will directly test the validity of the hawkish rhetoric from the Fed.
Scenario One (High Probability): Cooling Employment, Refuting the Fed, Bullish Main Rally Starts
· Data Logic: Previous cumulative revisions exceeded 100,000 downward; if weakness continues this week, September rate hike expectations will plummet, U.S. Treasury yields will decline, and liquidity constraints will ease.
· BTC: After breaking through 80000, it will head straight to 84000.
· ETH: Breaks through 2500-2550, catching up to 2800.
Scenario Two (Low Probability): Strong Employment, Short-term Deep Pullback for Consolidation
· Data Logic: Data exceeds expectations, rate hike panic intensifies, U.S. Treasury yields surge, short-term risk-off selling.
· BTC: Retraces to 75500-76500, holding the 75000 lifeline indicates consolidation.
· ETH: Retraces to 2350-2380 to form a double bottom.
Practical Response
· Before data release: Avoid high-leverage one-sided bets, guard against spikes.
· Right-side signal: After Friday's nonfarm release, if data is weak and BTC closes strongly above 79000, follow the momentum to go long. What exactly happened to $ARB today that caused such a sharp rise! And what is its market analysis?
ARB is one of the leading Ethereum Layer 2 projects, with fundamentals much stronger than $LAB and $BEAT! It has a mature DeFi ecosystem, deep capital accumulation, a large number of developers, high institutional recognition, and the DAO treasury holds a large amount of assets. It is currently known that the DAO treasury still holds over 2.5 billion ARB tokens, which is very important information! It indicates that the project is not dead. However, it also means that a large amount of ARB tokens are controlled by the team, foundation, investment institutions, and the DAO treasury, so there is a serious risk of market manipulation! Like many altcoins, it also faces unlocking risks, with 3 billion tokens still locked. This causes the phenomenon of falling quickly and rising slowly. In summary, ARB is not a worthless coin, nor a typical market-manipulated coin. But it belongs to the typical category of: good project + poor token price structure BTC Trading Plan for the Evening of 9.1:
1. Yesterday, multiple short positions were taken at 78400 and 78800, reaching around 77700. The strategy continues to be validated by the market. So far, every strategy given has without exception yielded profits.
2. Daytime volatility was limited; there was no accelerated decline yesterday. In this morning's post, it was clearly stated that the market will start to consolidate over the next few days, with an expectation to test the 81000 resistance once more.
3. From a long-term perspective, it is still believed that BTC is overall in a bear market. The rise from 62000 to 81000 is not a bear-to-bull reversal but a correction after a decline. Many are eyeing the 100000 level, which in my view is purely wishful thinking.
4. Expect consolidation for at least the next three trading days.
Specific Plan:
① Short positions at 80500, 78800, and 78400 should consider reducing positions near 77500.
② For those without short positions, directly switch to long positions between 77200-77600, with a stop loss at 76800.
③ The expected adjustment range is not large, so focus on short-term trades in the coming days.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH $SOL BTC fell back to around 78,000, while ETH remains in the green; this divergence may not be a good sign.
At valuation, BTC is about 77,950, with a 24-hour range of 77,675 to 79,250; ETH is about 2,457, with a range of 2,437 to 2,490.
Today, US-Iran conflict flared up again, Brent crude rose to $92.2, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.79%, and the probability of a September rate hike was pushed to about 65%. The chain is clear: rising oil prices → increased inflation concerns → higher interest rate expectations → pressure on BTC and ETH. However, the funding side hasn't completely fallen apart; in the previous trading day, US spot ETFs saw net inflows of $216.7 million and $87.6 million respectively, with support below.
Tonight, just waiting for the 15-minute confirmation. $BTC closing back above 78,300 on the 15-minute chart, holding on the pullback is bullish; 79,250 is the first target, main target 80,000; closing below 77,650 on 15 minutes invalidates this.
$ETH closing above 2,468 on the 15-minute chart, holding the pullback between 2,458 and 2,462 is bullish; 2,500 is the first target, main target 2,535; closing below 2,437 on 15 minutes invalidates this. If conditions are not met, just wait.
For market analysis only, not investment advice. #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 Just glanced at the on-chain data, and a huge whale withdrew 44.19 million $ENA in one go, worth nearly 7 million dollars. The key point is that this person didn't withdraw to dump; they immediately staked all of it. The timing of this operation is very subtle. Calculated out, the unit price is only 0.154, which is directly halved compared to the 0.273 accumulation price in December last year.
You might say this is an ordinary retail investor bottom-fishing, but it doesn't quite look like it. Who bottom-fishes by going all-in with 40 to 50 million tokens? Moreover, the withdrawal was from an exchange, not buying by placing orders, which means this guy either had orders placed early or acquired the tokens off-exchange. The key point is staking, not selling. This signal is very interesting: it's obviously not for short-term rebound speculation but for long-term lock-up, most likely preparing for the next airdrop or accumulating governance weight.
Looking back at last year's rhythm, during the April peak, many early stakers gradually redeemed in May, made a profit, and left. But from the second half of last year, some professional addresses—you know, market makers or project affiliates—have been continuously accumulating from major exchanges and locking them into staking pools. This address's operation is exactly the same, just more aggressive, staking over 44 million tokens at once.
In October, a suspected related address quietly accumulated 450 million ENA. Now another whale with such a high concentration appears. The staking governance structure of Ethena is visibly being reshaped by a few addresses. The share of tokens held by retail investors is being heavily diluted, and future governance votes will basically depend on how these big holders align themselves.The news of oil tanker obstructions will continue to ferment, and Brent crude returning to $90 is just the beginning.
On August 30, new disturbances emerged in the US-Iran situation, and on August 31, Brent crude rose 2.71%, closing at $90.49, reclaiming the $90 mark. By September 1, reports of oil tankers being attacked or obstructed continued to spread, and the market's concern shifted from just crude oil supply to the transportation efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz.
These two issues are actually completely different.
Oil fields can still produce normally, but if oil tankers start rerouting and navigation efficiency declines, transportation costs and insurance fees will rise together, pushing crude oil prices higher. More importantly, if this impact persists, it’s hard to treat it as just a one- or two-day emotional fluctuation.
So right now, I’m less concerned about the $90 figure itself and more interested in whether oil tankers can resume normal passage in the coming days of September. If the obstructions are sporadic, oil prices might spike and then digest the risk; but if navigation issues persist, Brent crude could test $95 or even $100, significantly increasing pressure.
And this time, we can’t just focus on crude oil.
Sustained oil price increases most easily transmit to inflation expectations first, then affect rate cut expectations and US Treasury yields. For BTC, this is the key variable going forward. Short-term oil price rises may bring risk-off sentiment, but if it evolves into persistent energy inflation, liquidity expectations could worsen, and the pressure above BTC will become increasingly apparent.
Therefore, what’s truly worth watching on September 1 is not just whether Brent crude can hold above $90.
It’s whether oil tankers can pass smoothly, and whether this round of energy pressure will ultimately turn into liquidity pressure for BTC.
#美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 $BZ $BTC $CL NVIDIA strikes again
This time directly investing $3.5 billion to buy MediaTek convertible bonds, and the two sides will further cooperate on AI infrastructure, AI PCs, and smart cars.
But I think the real importance is not this $3.5 billion.
Now giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI are all developing their own AI chips, which theoretically could threaten NVIDIA GPU's position in the long term.
NVIDIA's strategy is very smart:
You can make your own chips, but it's best to connect to my NVLink and the entire AI infrastructure.
This is also why NVIDIA started supporting ASIC players like MediaTek. In the future, what it wants to control may no longer be just GPUs, but the entire AI data center ecosystem.
$NVDA $BTC $SNDK #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 Two Saudi crude oil supertankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz
Fact: Two supertankers, each carrying about 2 million barrels of Saudi crude oil, were attacked by unidentified projectiles while exiting the Strait of Hormuz; the crew are safe. The UK maritime authority has confirmed the related attack incident.
Market reaction: Oil prices gained further risk premium, with Brent holding above $91; global bond markets continue to be under pressure.
Impact chain: Tanker attack → Increased transportation risk in Hormuz → Higher crude oil/inflation expectations → Rising US Treasury yields → Pressure on US stocks and BTC; the US dollar is relatively strong, with gold caught between safe-haven demand and high yields. Traditional finance
is opening up to cryptocurrencies at an accelerating pace.
Charles Schwab plans to add $SOL, $AVAX, and $LINK to its own crypto trading platform, which previously mainly offered BTC and ETH trading. Schwab currently serves nearly 39.9 million accounts, managing client assets totaling about $13.1 trillion.
I think the truly important point of this news is that Wall Street is expanding beyond BTC and ETH.
Previously, the institutional world basically only recognized BTC, then accepted ETH, and now SOL, LINK, and even AVAX are starting to enter the trading scope of traditional brokers.
Each additional traditional financial entry point expands the capital pool accessible to altcoins.
If this trend continues, I believe the largest incremental funds for the next altcoin market rally may indeed come partly from traditional investors who previously never touched altcoins.
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Recent altcoin contract operations have had both gains and losses, with the overall position still in a floating loss state. Long-term holdings of $BICO, $BEAT, and $ASTER have brought positive returns, while CORE, KAITO, and TRUMP have underperformed. Today, short positions were opened on the top gainers 0G and ZORA, with results to be verified tomorrow.
Observing recent strong coins, they are almost all concentrated in the finance and platform sectors. AAVE, UNI, and HYPE have seen considerable gains, while OKB and BNB, as platform tokens, also belong to the top tier, along with some security tokens. In contrast, blockchain gaming, storage, and AI sectors are clearly weak.
If the market undergoes a deep correction, the plan is to gradually enter the three strong sectors mentioned above using spot funds. Contract trading rarely has consistent winners and is more suitable for small positions to gauge the market. Truly substantial profits still depend on spot positioning. Large capital in contracts requires very high technical skills; unless the funds are sufficient to withstand continuous losses, it is not advisable to attempt lightly.
At the current macro level, employment data is being released intensively, and Walsh's policy stance is under scrutiny; BTC is oscillating at high levels with increased correlation to gold; Broadcom and Dell are taking over the earnings season, and the AI return logic is being re-examined. Multiple variables intertwine, potentially intensifying short-term volatility.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, and contract leverage amplifies risk. Please control your position size rationally and make independent decisions.Strive (ASST.US) and Strategy (MSTR.US), two major giants, have successively resumed their Bitcoin accumulation actions, marking the reestablishment of the 'Bitcoin Treasury Model' market tone after a long period of silence. This round of capital inflow led by enterprises not only injects certainty demand into the recently volatile crypto market but also reveals a profound internal industry differentiation: leading players accelerate accumulation through aggressive leverage, while tail participants are forced to exit amid liquidity exhaustion. The entire ecosystem is shifting from disorderly expansion to ruthless survival of the fittest $BTC This structural transformation is not a simple cyclical recurrence but an inevitable result of dual screening by capital efficiency and risk tolerance, indicating that only institutions with strong financing capabilities and volatility resistance will survive in the future. The macro-level price rebound provides a critical window for this round of accumulation. As of Monday, Bitcoin's trading price approached $78,600, with an accumulated increase of over 24% in August. The restoration of market sentiment directly eliminated the downward pressure caused previously by enterprises pausing purchases or even selling. As a pioneer of this model, MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy), founded by Michael Saylor, broke a 10-week buying silence last week by purchasing $369.7 million worth of 4,603 BTC, raising its total holdings to 845,050 BTC. It is worth noting that during this gap period, Strategy was not completely inactive but in June