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Bitcoin's total network hashrate repeatedly hits the historic level of 1 ZH/s, hash price continues to decline, traditional mining profits are continuously squeezed, and a large number of listed mining companies have begun to redirect power resources to AI data centers, marking a major shift in the mining business model. 📑Key Points Summary 1. Hashrate surges, mining competition intensifies On September 1, the estimated total network hashrate was 974 EH/s, with a peak surpassing 1.03 ZH/s on August 31, and multiple times stabilizing above 1 ZH/s in August. The sustained increase in hashrate likely means Bitcoin $BTC mining difficulty will rise subsequently, enhancing network security but making competition for block rewards even fiercer. 2. Hash price declines, miner profits continue to be squeezed Current hash price is about $39/PH/s·day. Older mining rigs and high electricity cost farms face sharply increased survival pressure. Listed miner MARA's powered-on hashrate in Q2 rose 22% year-over-year, but revenue dropped 27% year-over-year; they mined 2,422 BTC with a single coin mining electricity cost as high as $38,690. Hashrate up, revenue not up has become the industry norm. Hashrate is an estimated value based on block statistics and may fluctuate in the short term; it is not a direct real-time measurement. 3. Power resource competition: mining VS AI computing power Bitcoin mining farms and AI data centers do not share chip hardware, but their core essential demand is exactly the same: massive stable power, grid capacity, and data center space. The strategic value of power assets is being reconsidered; power resources flow to wherever yields are higher. 4. Leading mining companies massively shift toward AI cloud industry #MarketAlert｜Panic in the bond market spreads outward, stock market, gold, and silver hit simultaneously
The sell-off in the US Treasury market is no longer confined to the bond market itself; the shockwave is spreading across asset classes.
When US Treasury prices plunge sharply, leveraged institutions that heavily use Treasuries as collateral trigger margin pressure. To obtain cash to cover margin calls, these institutions sell their most liquid assets at any cost, resulting in a rare phenomenon: risk assets and traditional safe-haven assets decline simultaneously.
▪️Stock Market: US Treasury yields form the valuation foundation for global assets; rising yields directly suppress valuations, putting pressure on tech growth stocks.
▪️Gold and Silver: Short-term "safe haven failure" occurs. On one hand, rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals; on the other hand, under liquidity crunch, gold and silver, as highly liquid assets, are sold by institutions to raise cash. Silver, with its industrial attributes, tends to be more volatile than gold.
Implications for $BTC
Two phases:
1. Liquidity squeeze phase: BTC falls in line with the broader market, all narratives fail;
2. If the 30-year yield continues approaching the 6% warning line, the debt death spiral narrative intensifies, and Bitcoin and gold will switch back to roles hedging US dollar credit risk, leading to a differentiated market.
Currently, the market is simultaneously playing two main themes: real interest rate pressure from rate hikes VS the US Treasury debt crisis hedge narrative.
Key indicators to watch: 30-year US Treasury yield, CPI inflation data.
#BTC #USTreasury #MacroCrypto
$BTC $ETH $XAU Is Xiaomi at the bottom yet?
The market looks weak indeed, hovering around 3.5, corresponding to 27.6 HKD. It has dropped from 59.9, nearly halving—quite brutal.
Smartphone shipments fell 26.5% in Q2, but ASP hit 1351 yuan, a record high. They actively cut low-end models because storage chip prices surged too much to bear. Volume is down but prices are up; this is a deliberate adjustment, not a crash #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults The United States and Iran have once again engaged in direct military conflict, and Trump has threatened further strikes on Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East again.
Normally, the $XAU script should be like this: war escalation → everyone seeks safe havens → buy gold → gold surges.
But this time the script is somewhat different: war escalation → increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz → BZ, $CL crude oil rises → energy inflation risk rises → Fed finds it harder to ease interest rate policy → global bond yields rise → gold falls.
Both lines make sense, but currently, the second line clearly dominates: the market's fear of inflation outweighs the demand for safe havens, and the Middle East tensions have become bearish for gold.
This also reminds us that many things have two sides; yesterday the market was trading war safe havens, today it may shift to trading inflation and rate hikes; understanding the logic behind these event trades and preparing corresponding plans is essential to be ready for similar events in the future 🫡
#美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 🔥 ROBINHOOD COULD BE A BIG DEAL FOR $ARB — AND HERE’S WHY.
Robinhood didn’t just launch another blockchain.
They built their own chain using Arbitrum’s tech stack.
And under the Arbitrum Expansion Program, 10% of Robinhood’s net revenue flows back into the Arbitrum ecosystem — 8% to the DAO treasury and 2% to developers building on the stack.
Now think bigger. 👇
As Robinhood grows activity around stock tokens, trading.
#DailyOrbit BTC's trend in September will face a fierce clash between "historical seasonal bearishness" and "macro policy battles."
Short-term (early September): Before the release of the US August non-farm payroll data on September 4 and the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16, the market is likely to maintain a narrow range between $77,500 and $79,500. If the non-farm data is strong and rate hike expectations further solidify, BTC may test the $77,000 support level downward; conversely, if the data is weak, it is expected to break above the $80,000 mark.
Medium-term trend risk: Historically, September is usually a weak month for the crypto market. Coupled with the current 65% probability of rate hikes and potential leveraged long liquidation risks, the probability of BTC pulling back downward in September is slightly higher than breaking upward.
Potential upside catalysts: Some analysts (such as Tom Lee) believe that when market fear of a September "crash" reaches an extreme, it may trigger a contrarian rebound; additionally, if the US CLARITY Act (crypto asset regulatory bill) vote around September 15 makes substantial progress, it will inject strong institutional compliance capital expectations into the market.
BTC faces severe macro liquidity tests and high leverage risks in September. Before the Federal Reserve clarifies its stance, it is recommended to treat the market with a range-bound mindset and be cautious of downward spikes causing liquidations. The market's true directional choice will heavily depend on the early September non-farm data and the mid-September Federal Reserve decision. $BTC $ETH $ZEC A keen reading of the market and detailed scene analysis🌏 1. The end of the "Free Yen" era (Yen Carry Trade) 🛑 For decades, investors worldwide relied on borrowing Japanese yen at near-zero interest rates to liquidate these funds and inject them into high-risk assets, such as US tech stocks and Bitcoin. With the rise in the 10-year Japanese government bond yield and the Bank of Japan moving to raise interest rates, one of the largest "liquidity printing machines" in the world is officially shutting down. 2. Short-term impact: a wave of correction and forced decline 📉⚡ Capital flight: rise in theIn the past month, the A-share market has rebounded without volume, surging high and then falling back as if playing a game. Today it pumps insurance stocks, tomorrow it crushes tech stocks, and my account stubbornly shows no gains.
Trading volume has shrunk from trillions to 600 billion; every chase ends in a trap, so I might as well lie low and play dead.
This situation reminds me of the crypto circle, where $BTC has been fluctuating between 58,000 and 65,000 all August, just teasing.
The old stock market saying "don't chase highs on low volume" works just as well in crypto; the longer the sideways consolidation, the fiercer the breakout.
Last week, $ETH followed the US stock market rally, but as soon as the CPI data came out, it gave back all gains within half an hour.
It’s just like A-shares opening high on good news but closing low—same old tricks, no effort to change.
My biggest lesson in stock trading is adding positions during sideways moves, thinking the price won’t fall, but when it breaks down, you can’t even get in line to cut losses.
Now I have a strict rule: only hold 20% of my position in stocks and crypto, and if it breaks below the 20-day moving average, I exit immediately, no attachment.
A common retail investor mistake is averaging down; stocks can be held deadpan for dividends, but if crypto goes to zero, there’s not even a splash.
By the end of August, both markets shrank into a straight line; seasoned retail investors know this is the calm before the storm.
Don’t trust KOLs’ calls, and don’t believe "this time is different"—the market punishes stubbornness.
Wait for that volume spike before making a move. For now, watch more and act less; staying alive means having a chance at the next round. $TRUMP has directly surged to over 80 billion in market cap this round, I'm stunned.
Honestly, I used to think holding LEO and UNI was already a strong show of faith—platform tokens plus established DeFi leaders, they seemed much more solid than new faces. But now the narrative has been completely taken over by sentiment coins, celebrity coins, and memes. As soon as they launch, liquidity bombs hit hard, with FDV and exposure crushing the competition. Looking back, LEO only has a floating market cap of a few billion, and UNI has been stuck in that range for years, which is quite a psychological gap.
But thinking calmly, something like $TRUMP isn’t based on cash flow at its core, but on attention, community mobilization, and event-driven factors. A strong pump doesn’t mean it can hold; unlocks, token distribution, platform depth, regulatory rumors—any one of these variables can flip the curve. Older coins are slower but at least their logic is clearer.
I’m not chasing anymore; I’m managing my holdings properly: hot money stays hot money, core holdings stay core. Don’t let the meme’s explosive growth invalidate your original research, and don’t try to explain capital games with the value coin framework.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 On September 1st during the US stock market session, the semiconductor and memory sectors collectively weakened, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 3%, and Intel falling nearly 4%—this scale of decline deserves a closer look.
Specific figures: Micron fell 2.53%, SanDisk fell 2.26%, Seagate fell 3.06%, Western Digital fell 1.94%, SK Hynix ADR fell 2.41%, NVIDIA fell 3.25%, Intel fell 3.88%, and AMD fell 3.48%. Both memory chips (Micron, SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital) and logic chips (NVIDIA, Intel, AMD) declined simultaneously, indicating this is not an issue isolated to a single segment but that the entire semiconductor supply chain faced pressure on the same day.
These companies correspond to different links in AI computing power—NVIDIA is the core of computing power, Micron and SanDisk correspond to storage demand, and SK Hynix is a key supplier of HBM high-bandwidth memory. If only NVIDIA had fallen, it could be attributed to individual stock sentiment; however, the simultaneous weakening of memory and logic chips looks more like the market is repricing the entire "AI hardware industry chain" rather than questioning the fundamentals of any single company.
The semiconductor sector has always been regarded as a leading indicator of tech stock sentiment. The driving factors behind this broad decline (inventory cycle, demand expectations, or pure profit-taking) still need to be confirmed by capital flow data in the coming days. The single-day drop alone is insufficient to draw conclusions.
#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 In August, $BTC surged about 24%, marking one of the strongest August performances since 2017, driven indeed by ETF funds and short-covering.
But after the price surged to $80,000, a new change began to emerge: the pace of the rise noticeably slowed.
I think this is more noteworthy than a simple pullback.
Because now BTC is no longer in the previous scenario where "a dip means someone will buy." Above $80,000, clear profit-taking has appeared, and although funds are flowing back in, there is not yet a sustained acceleration.
What’s even more interesting is that BTC’s correlation with gold has been clearly strengthening recently.
The latest data shows that BTC’s 90-day correlation with gold has exceeded 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33%. In other words, BTC is increasingly less like a pure tech risk asset and is beginning to exhibit some "digital gold" characteristics.
The logic behind this is actually easy to understand.
When funds start worrying about the purchasing power of the dollar, fiscal deficits, and long-term interest rates, gold benefits, and BTC may also attract attention. So this BTC rally is not just a crypto market celebration but also involves some macro funds.
But problems arise as well.
Gold can rise slowly in a safe-haven environment, but BTC is not that stable. It is more volatile and is influenced by ETF funds, leveraged positions, and risk appetite.
So I now tend to define BTC as:
"A critical confirmation phase after a strong rally."
$80,000 is no longer just an ordinary number.
If BTC can hold above $80,000 again and ETFs continue to see net inflows, this breakout has a chance to turn from a "spike" into a genuine trend continuation. Once the upper space reopens, funds will have reason to keep chasing.
But if repeated attempts to hold $80,000 fail and ETF funds flow out again consecutively, caution is needed.
Because this kind of movement most easily leads to a situation where the price has risen too fast and needs time and consolidation to digest profit-taking.
Personally, I won’t turn bearish just because BTC falls back to $78,000, nor will I chase just because $80,000 was broken once.
Instead, I will focus on two things.
First, whether $80,000 can turn from resistance into support.
Second, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in.
Especially the second point is much more important than any short-term candlestick. On August 31, ETFs saw a renewed inflow of about $217 million, at least indicating institutional demand has not disappeared.
So I don’t think this rally is over for now.
But from a trading perspective, the most comfortable phase to chase the rally may be over, and now we are entering a verification phase.
If BTC can stabilize near $78,000 and launch an effective breakout above $80,000 again, I would lean more toward trend continuation; if $80,000 cannot hold for long and even breaks below previous key support, then a deeper short-term shakeout should be guarded against.
One more detail cannot be ignored: September itself is a month dense with macro data, with U.S. employment, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy expectations all set to influence the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields again.
So BTC’s real opponent going forward may no longer be a certain round number but global risk appetite.
$80,000 is just the first gate.
Whether it can hold is the real answer for the next phase of the market.
$ETH $ARB
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 September 1 Bitcoin $BTC Market Review
#Employment data is being released intensively, Wash's policy stance is being tested
To be honest, the current market trend is completely hijacked by the upcoming employment data.
After the Jackson Hole speech, the market immediately raised expectations for a September rate hike. Originally, everyone still hoped for a rate cut, but now that hope has been completely dashed.
This week, JOLTS job openings, ADP, initial jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls will be released one after another. This series of data is used to test Wash's policy stance.
If the employment data remains strong, it means the economy is still resilient, inflation will be hard to fall quickly, so expectations for rate hikes will further strengthen, US Treasury yields will continue to rise, and the crypto market will continue to be under pressure.
Conversely, if employment weakens significantly, the market will reprice rate cut expectations, and risk assets will begin to recover.
Currently, market sentiment is very conflicted; both bulls and bears dare not make large moves casually.
Funds are on the sidelines, waiting for the data to be released before making choices, so the market is prone to volatile swings and spikes.
With only one principal amount, in this kind of pre-news speculative market, do not go all in ahead of time.
I am temporarily not optimistic about a unilateral big market move right now; all current trends depend on the answers given by this week's data.
Do not be fooled by small rebounds during the session; before the news is released, everything is uncertain.
Rather than betting on direction prematurely, it is better to patiently wait for the data to be released and participate only when the market gives a clear signal. 🚨 BITCOIN JUST ENTERED A MONTH WITH A VERY INTERESTING HISTORY…
Bitcoin closed both July and August in the green.
Sounds bullish, right? But there’s a catch. 👀
Since 2013, every time BTC has finished both July and August higher, September has ended in the red.
And this September has an extra catalyst to watch: the CLARITY Act vote expected on September 15.
If the vote gets delayed again, market uncertainty could rise—and history may once again favor a red September.
#DailyOrbit Nonfarm Payroll Release · Quick Hawk-Dove Judgment Checklist (September 4, 20:30 Beijing Time)
⚠️ Macro logic popular science only
Judgment priority: Average hourly earnings > Nonfarm payroll additions > Unemployment rate > Previous value revision (downward/upward)
1. 【Hawkish Combination → Bearish for BTC/ETH, biased down】
If any 2 or more of the following appear, define as hawkish:
1. Nonfarm payroll additions significantly exceed expectations
2. Unemployment rate decreases or remains low
3. Average hourly earnings monthly and yearly rates exceed expectations (wage inflation is the Fed's biggest concern)
4. Last month's nonfarm data revised upward
Market reaction: USD strengthens, US Treasury yields rise → Crypto market under pressure, prone to rapid plunge
2. 【Dovish Combination → Bullish for BTC/ETH, biased up】
If any 2 or more of the following appear, define as dovish:
1. Nonfarm payroll additions significantly below expectations, even negative
2. Unemployment rate rises
3. Average hourly earnings growth below expectations
4. Last month's nonfarm data revised downward
Market reaction: Rate cut expectations rise, USD weakens → Risk assets rebound, crypto market likely to surge
3. 【Neutral (Meets Expectations) → Sideways Market】
Nonfarm additions, unemployment rate, and wages all near expectations
• High probability of a short-term sharp rise and fall, then stop-loss hunting back and forth, forming a V-shaped oscillation, with direction emerging after 1-2 hours.
4. Four Most Dangerous "Contradictory Combinations" (Most prone to whipsaws)
1. Nonfarm very high, but wages very low → Fall first then rebound
2. Nonfarm very poor, but wages very high → Rise first then crash (fake dovish, most harmful to bulls)
3. Nonfarm good, unemployment rate surges → Bulls and bears fight, intense volatility
4. Data matches expectations, but previous value revised sharply upward/downward → Reverse market
5. Quick Monitoring Mnemonic
Wages rule, additions assist, watch unemployment trend, previous value revisions hide traps.
Wages exceeding = hawk, wages falling = dove; once wages explode high, even if nonfarm is average, it tends to be bearish for crypto.
$BTC $ETH Today I saw a very small transaction, but I found its structure particularly interesting.
Adam Back directly used:
10 BTC
to subscribe to new shares of the UK-listed company Connecting Excellence Group.
These 10 BTC were valued at:
£577,999.
After the transaction, the company's BTC Treasury increased to:
72.941 BTC, +15.9%.
And Adam Back will hold about:
29% of the company's shares.
Note the funding path here:
Not:
BTC → sold for GBP → bought shares.
But:
BTC → shares.
This is what I think is worth the Crypto community's attention.
As Bitcoin Treasury develops to the next stage,
BTC may not just "sit" on the company's balance sheet.
It could gradually become:
a financing tool,
an acquisition asset,
collateral,
even capital for equity exchange between companies.
People used to ask:
"When can BTC be used to buy coffee?"
I actually think the real big story might not be coffee.
But one day:
companies start directly using BTC to buy companies.
This transaction is still very small in scale, but the direction is worth remembering. 🚨 What exactly has gone wrong with CORE recently? Is it a technical vulnerability, management error, or human factors? Recently, $CORE has seen a series of controversial incidents. What truly deserves attention may not be a single incident, but rather the governance and risk management capabilities exposed behind these issues. 1. Technical Level: Abnormalities in Reward Mechanisms On August 31, some validator nodes experienced excessive block rewards. The official statement stated that user assets were not stolen; the issue was due to a logical anomaly in reward distribution. The issue has been identified and fixed, and a full review has been promised. This seems more like a fixable technical incident, but the rewards and consensus mechanisms of public chains are core at the underlying level. Any abnormalities could inevitably affect validator and community confidence in system stability. 2. Ecosystem Level: DeFi Liquidation Risk Amplified Colend Large-scale liquidations have further amplified the risk of chain liquidations in CORE's price. The core issue is the ecosystem's high dependence on $CORE collateral. When the native token drops rapidly, the risk of lending protocols is rapidly amplified. This does not necessarily mean CORE itself has technical vulnerabilities, but it does expose that there is room for improvement in ecosystem risk control and risk warning. 3. What truly dissatisfied the community is crisis communication. Binance's delisting itself is already a major negative factor. But what the market cares about more is: whether the project team responds promptly, explains the reasons, proposes countermeasures, and protects community confidence at such critical moments. If communication is clearly insufficient after a major event, even with technical development,● Fed rate hike expectations sharply intensify: This is the core macro factor currently suppressing BTC prices. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is only 34.6%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike has surged to about 65%. Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting have put the market under significant liquidity tightening pressure ahead of the September 16 policy meeting.
● Geopolitical risks heighten inflation concerns: Recent escalations in US-Iran conflicts have caused global crude oil prices to surge (Brent crude briefly rose over 3% above $91). Rising oil prices directly push up inflation expectations, further reinforcing the Fed's rate hike rationale and pressuring risk assets.
● Divergence in spot ETF fund flows: Despite a strong net inflow of over $3.5 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs in August, the streak of nine consecutive days of net inflows was broken at the end of August, with about $200 million in net outflows. This indicates institutional funds are starting to take profits or becoming cautious at high levels, weakening short-term demand support.
● Long-term holders and whale movements: During August's rally, the number of long-term holders and whale wallets actually decreased, indicating they have been distributing chips to the market. However, on August 31, long-term holders' net positions showed signs of turning positive. $BTC $ETH $ARB $QQQ $xQQQ consistently buy 100u every month, target 10 shares 😊 #Anthropic：IPO new progress, prospectus planned to be public in September
The technology of future humans will continue to advance
Core market factors driving today's trend
Rising concerns about macroeconomics and interest rates:
The market has recently been highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. With inflation data and officials' remarks (such as the market's rising expectations for a possible rate hike or maintaining high rates in September), U.S. Treasury yields face upward pressure. A high interest rate environment tends to suppress valuations of Nasdaq 100 components, which are mainly tech stocks with relatively high valuations.
Sector rotation in the broader market and correction after August's gains:
In the just-passed August, QQQ performed well, recording about a 4.8% increase for the month, attracting substantial capital inflows (over $9 billion in August). On the first day of September, some investors chose to take profits in tech stocks, causing the overall tech heavyweight stocks to decline collectively, dragging QQQ down.
Long-term support centered on AI and semiconductors remains:
Although today's market declined due to macro sentiment and short-term capital adjustments, the overall market enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductor chips, and large tech giants has not changed. Previously, heavyweight earnings reports and future outlooks from companies like NVIDIA showed strong momentum, which is also the core confidence supporting QQQ's over 26% surge in the past year.The August market run has ended. Looking back, $BTC rose from 62,000 to around 77,000, with a monthly increase close to 25%. ETFs saw a net inflow of about 3 billion USD this month, showing that institutions are indeed buying.
But one detail is worth noting: the 9 consecutive days of inflows stopped at the end of the month. So the key going forward is not how the candlestick charts look, but whether ETF funds can return to a net inflow state. If next week's data continues to improve, this correction might just be a consolidation; if the data remains weak, then the risk at this level needs to be reassessed.
My strategy is simple: watch more and act less until the data confirms.Here's a hot trading tip for tonight: The U.S. Treasury Secretary has taken a hard line of zero tolerance toward Iran and plans to announce banking sanctions this week or next. He also specifically added that oil will be transported via land pipelines, not through the Strait of Hormuz. To translate: he's preemptively warning the market not to panic-buy oil whenever there's trouble in the Middle East. Over the past two years, I've repeatedly shared a counterintuitive framework: the first reaction to war news is "risk-off, bullish for $BTC," but the real transmission chain usually goes like this—oil prices rise → inflation sticks → rate hike expectations strengthen → gold and crypto both get hit. So don't blindly call it a safe haven just because of missile launches; first check how the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields move. In the current macro environment, war is often priced as another rate hike, not as a safe haven.The real trading in the night session isn't the shadow candle, it's that Walsh has put rate hikes back on the table
① Last Friday at Jackson Hole, he said PCE is still at 3.7, the half-year annualized rate is 4.1, the trend hasn't improved. The rate hike pricing moved from 40% last Thursday to over 60% tonight. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.78%, gold spot dropped to 4360, having touched 4451 during the day
② As the US stock market just opened, tokenized XSPY is at 762, Nasdaq's XLITE looks worse at 865, having been 904 during the day
③ Bitcoin current price is 77982, spot ETF added 217 million on Monday, 924 million last week, money hasn't left, pricing moved first
④ July nonfarm payrolls have already decreased by 23,000, unemployment rate is 4.1. Walsh still says the labor market isn't the problem, inflation is. So tonight the fear isn't unemployment, but employment being too stable
⑤ At 22:00 JOLTS, Wednesday ADP, Friday nonfarm, September 11 CPI, and the 16th is the FOMC. This whole week is to test Walsh's statement $BTC
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO
The boss has something to say
Cook officially stepped down as Apple's CEO and transitioned to Executive Chairman of the Board. Taking over is John Ternus, head of hardware engineering.
Ternus was previously responsible for product lines like iPad, AirPods, Apple Watch, and Vision Pro. He comes from a hardware background, not software or services.
Apple is currently facing a complex situation. Its AI capabilities lag behind OpenAI and Google, in-house chip development is ongoing, and Vision Pro has yet to break out. Ternus needs to simultaneously advance AI implementation, hardware iteration, and supply chain management. Whether he can provide a clear AI roadmap will directly impact AAPL's valuation logic.
Apple is also involved in a trade secrets lawsuit with OpenAI; Apple is pushing to expedite evidence collection, while OpenAI denies the allegations. The new CEO faces legal disputes right after taking office, an unfortunate timing.
The leadership change at Apple has no direct impact on the crypto market but indirectly affects overall sentiment in tech stocks. If the new CEO is accepted by the market, tech stocks may strengthen, benefiting risk appetite in crypto. If there is strategic wavering during the transition, tech stocks will be pressured, dragging crypto down as well.
The observation window is during upcoming product launches and AI feature rollouts, not now.
On the market front, holding long positions on BTC at 78,100+, stop loss at 76,000, target between 80,500 and 81,000. $ETH $SOL
$BTC Once Saylor buys, the narrative comes alive
Strategy hasn't made a move for over two months, and despite the sharp rise in August, it didn't chase. But as soon as September started, it bought 4603 $BTC
This move is very Saylor: watching the show when prices rise, replenishing stock during sideways movement. The market immediately relit the line that "the company treasury is still accumulating"
Add to that the ETF flows turning from outflows to inflows in just one day, the US-Iran tensions, oil price jumps, and rising rate hike expectations, yet $BTC is still holding steady at 78,000 without crashing
You can call this resilience, or you can say no one dares to short yet. Either way, $BTC isn't telling a story now; it's waiting for someone to give upThe so-called massive capital inflow is actually a superficial cash-out stage
Externally, everyone is shouting that billions of dollars are pouring into crypto ETFs, like liquidity saviors, but when you break it down, many are just authorized participants, market makers, and institutions engaging in subscriptions, redemptions, and basis/arbitrage turnover. The books look busy, but prices don’t necessarily agree. Last week's flow data was indeed impressive, with weekly net inflows rising for BTC and ETH, and SOL and XRP also attracting funds, yet the spot market remains sticky: ETH grinds within a range, SOL moves sideways, and BTC is often influenced by macro factors and options positions, indicating that inflows have not fully translated into sustained buying momentum.
More typically, on a certain day, BTC ETF saw a large net outflow, and the market immediately started looking for "long-term logic" to soothe sentiment. A single day cannot define a trend, but if fund flows and coin prices continue to diverge, caution is needed: ETFs are both allocation channels and tools for institutions to arbitrage, hedge, and rebalance. Ordinary users seeing net inflows tend to imagine "whales lifting the market," but many of the benefits are eaten up at the mechanism level.
When watching the market, don’t just look at news headlines; focus on actual premiums, on-chain withdrawals/deposits, stablecoins, and futures basis. Good-looking fund data does not equal profits for you.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $ZEC is really fierce, with a 24-hour low of 820 and a high pulled up to 871, and a trading volume of 46.68 million. I've been watching the OKX order book, and I keep wondering: this isn't just a coin, it's like it has a grudge against the shorts.
Are you all shorting? This ZEC rally is clearly targeting the short positions. The higher it pushes, the more people think, "It’s risen so much, it should fall now," so the shorts pile up more and more. Then the big players pull it up suddenly, turning all the shorts into fuel, causing it to explode higher and higher, creating a vicious cycle of rising prices and increasing shorts. I glanced at the contract data on OKX, and ZEC’s funding rate has floated quite high, indicating shorts are still holding on hard, but that’s exactly why it can keep climbing.
In this kind of market, the worst thing is itchy fingers. I said a couple of days ago, don’t short this ZEC wild card lightly. Now it’s clear: whoever shorts it suffers. But I also won’t chase longs, because this kind of rise built on short squeezes will crash as soon as the shorts mostly capitulate, giving you no time to react. Those chasing longs often end up being the next ones taught a lesson.
My own strategy: I’m holding my spot positions and watching the show. It rises, it rises; I hold my BTC and OKB base positions, eating and sleeping as usual. There are crazy coins in the market every day; you can’t participate in all of them. ZEC is for those with guts and quick hands to lick the blade—I admit I don’t have that skill.
$ZEC key levels I casually mark: support below at 840-845; if it falls back here, it means the first wave of sentiment has retreated; resistance above at 871, today’s high, and beyond that is the 900 round number. But honestly, in this purely sentiment-driven market, levels are just references; what really determines its movement is liquidation data. I’ll keep watching the changes in open interest on OKX, waiting for the day it releases huge volume, surges high, then falls back—that will be the climax of this drama.Still waiting for rate cuts to revive crypto? Take your eyes off the K-line and have a look: Eurozone inflation returned to 3.3% in August, and the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate hike by the ECB on September 10 as a done deal; Japan's 10-year government bond yield has reached a 30-year high, and the US 10-year yield just broke 4.75% yesterday. Money from major central banks worldwide is getting more expensive together, which is the gravitational pull over all risk assets. $BTC won't automatically become immune just because you're optimistic. I'm not saying a crash is imminent, but in an environment where interest rates are being pulled up, chasing highs and going long is clearly a bad bet. The bias is bearish, but don't rush blindly—wait for a real crack to loosen, not one you imagine yourself.Macro and micro factors are forming two hedging forces in the crypto market. On the geopolitical front, the US-Iran conflict has pushed crude oil to $90, combined with rising US Treasury yields, the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 64%, and inflation expectations are suppressing risk assets, making it significantly harder for BTC to break through $80,000. On the other hand, the ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of $824 million last week, marking the highest weekly peak since October last year, with funds clearly diverting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and the buying coming from real spot rather than leverage.
Institutional moves carry more signaling significance. Strategy resumed increasing its position after two months, adding 4,603 BTC at a cost of $369.7 million, bringing total holdings to over 840,000 BTC, with an average cost of $75,412, which has become the market's psychological bottom; meanwhile, a 12% dividend yield continues to attract stable capital. Another institution, BitMine, continues its 65-week consecutive ETH acquisition plan, recently acquiring 51,000 ETH, with holdings approaching 5% of circulating supply, most of which are staked to generate yield, driving ETH's performance to outpace US stocks, with short-term support in the $2,350-$2,400 range.
This week's employment data will be released intensively, putting Wash's policy stance to the test. Whether the macro narrative can resonate with institutional buying demand may be more worth watching than any single price point.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#ETHETF #EthereumInflow #ETHTrend$SOL The real change has arrived
It's no longer just supported by Meme coins
Today I saw a set of Solana data, and I think it's more worth paying attention to than the short-term price fluctuations of $SOL.
Although Solana network revenue in the first half of this year dropped 87% year-on-year, the underlying structure has completely changed: the proportion of Meme coins in spot trading volume dropped from 40% to 16%, while stablecoins rose from 6% to 19%.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh Is the bull market really starting? The signals I've been watching have basically never failed in past cycles.
Earlier, I actually talked about $BTC's 50-week moving average, but after reviewing the history again these past couple of days, I think we need to add another indicator: 50 Week MA + Weekly Supertrend.
Looking at these two together is much more interesting than just focusing on 80,000, ETF inflows, or how much it rose on a certain day.
Let's look at the past first.
In October 2015, $BTC reclaimed the 50-week moving average around $280, and then the Weekly Supertrend also completed a long-term bullish flip.
Everyone knows what happened next.
$BTC went from a few hundred dollars all the way to nearly $20,000 in 2017. That round of the real bull market started gradually from this stage.
Galaxy's historical statistics also show that after reclaiming the 50W MA in 2015, the price stayed above this line for 135 consecutive weeks.
After BTC dropped to over $3,000 at the end of 2018, it reclaimed the 50W MA again in May 2019, when the price was about $5,800.
Just over a month later, BTC surged to nearly $14,000, more than doubling.
The 2022 bear market was even more typical. BTC bottomed at just over $15,000, the Weekly Supertrend flipped bullish again at the start of 2023, and then in March BTC officially reclaimed the 50-week moving average around $28,000.
A year later, BTC had already broken through the previous all-time high of $69,000.
There is a detail here I find very critical.
Looking at the 50W MA alone, it is not 100% accurate.
Because at the end of 2021 and in March 2022, BTC briefly reclaimed the 50-week moving average, but ultimately continued to fall.
At that time, the Weekly Supertrend did not simultaneously complete a true long-term bullish flip.
This is why I no longer look at any single line alone, but always combine these two indicators:
➡️ 50W MA to judge whether BTC has crossed the long-term bear market resistance again.
➡️ Weekly Supertrend to determine if this breakout has truly formed a long-term trend.
In past cycles when the market truly switched from bear to bull, these two signals basically resonated together. Conversely, the few false 50W MA breakouts in 2021–2022 were not confirmed by the Weekly Supertrend.
So looking back at now, it’s very interesting.
Recently, BTC surged from over 60,000 to above 80,000, reaching a high of $81,265.
At that time, the 50-week moving average was around $81,000–82,000.
It almost touched it.
But it ultimately didn’t hold, the weekly candle closed back below, and now BTC is back near $78,000; the Weekly Supertrend still hasn’t fully flipped bullish.
So my current judgment on this round is simple: the bull market has not officially started yet.
It looks more like it’s oscillating just below this last layer of long-term resistance. As I said before, I still expect a dip before a healthier rise...
But if BTC can truly hold above the 50W MA on the weekly chart, with the Weekly Supertrend flipping bullish, and then hold on a retest after the breakout—
I will take this signal very seriously.
Because past cycles have told us the same thing: once the bear market ends and these two long-term indicators both turn bullish, it’s usually no longer just a rebound of a few dozen percent.
It starts to be measured in years for the next phase.
So whether $BTC is at 77,000 or 79,000 right now, I’m not so worried.
What I really want to see is when it can truly cross both lines near 81,000 together.
If it really holds this time, then the area around 60,000 might very well be the last bear market bottom we see this cycle.
I’m also preparing to add this trendline to our observation indicators to help everyone with investment decisions.
In one sentence: invest scientifically, everyone stay tuned...WTI has risen from about $68 in July to a higher low, currently breaking through the long-term downtrend line and reaching around $88.
Technically, it has strengthened, but the $88 to $92 range remains a dense resistance zone. How high it can rise next depends not on demand but on whether geopolitical risks cause actual supply disruptions.
This round of increase is mainly driven by US-Iran clashes, attacks on oil tankers, and restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is again at its lowest level since 1982, and the market is repricing supply risks.
OPEC+ plans to increase production by about 188,000 barrels per day in September, but war and transport restrictions may keep some of this increase only on paper, merely capping oil prices and making it difficult to immediately eliminate geopolitical premiums.
If WTI holds above $90, inflation and rate hike expectations may rebound, US Treasury yields will also face upward pressure, benefiting energy stocks relatively, while technology, consumer, aviation, and BTC sectors need to guard against a stronger dollar and tightening liquidity.
I tend to think Trump will continue to use military pressure as leverage for negotiations in September while pushing for increased production to control oil prices. He needs to suppress Iran and does not want high oil prices to backfire on inflation.
The baseline range for September is expected to be $82–$95. If it holds above $92 and conflicts escalate, it could reach $95 to $100; if negotiations resume and shipping routes improve, it may fall back to $80–$83.
This is not the time to chase highs or rush to test the top. Wait for geopolitical premiums to cool down and for technical structures to weaken before judging the turning point.Rezolve Ai's revenue in the first half of 2026 reached $130.8 million (a year-on-year surge of 1970%), with over 1,640 enterprise customers onboarded, directly delivering a strong boost to the current market's doubts about the "lack of commercialization of AI applications." This is not just a single AI software explosion, but a rapid realization of the trinity business model of "AI algorithms + Web3 underlying data + traditional IT giant channels." Microsoft, Google, TCS, and Tech Mahindra are not merely customers but directly serve as the global enterprise product distribution network. Through the sales systems of these IT giants, Rezolve increased its customer base from 950 to over 1,640 in just half a year. The full-year revenue target is $360 million with a $500 million ARR expectation: having completed $131 million in the first half, the company reaffirmed the $360 million full-year guidance, implying management expects accelerated revenue growth in the second half (approximately $230 million needed in the second half). This usually corresponds to the concentrated fulfillment and monthly billing release of a large number of major channel contracts signed in Q2 during the second half. In the first half, the company invested about $250 million through equity financing, but as of June 30, free cash and cash equivalents on the books were only $33.2 million (with an additional $67.4 million in restricted cash). This indicates that as the business scale rapidly expands, the accounts receivable period is being extended.You just finished reading about TRIA's high FDV trap, and then I came across a "negative example" — USELESS (USELESS), whose name literally translates to "useless." A coin that calls itself useless dropped to 0.033 in August, then surged to 0.09 in 14 days, a 178% increase. Interestingly, the logic behind its rebound is exactly the mirror image of the reason TRIA crashed. Let's first look at its 90-day trend, divided into three phases: Phase one (June to mid-August): a continuous slow decline. From 0.10 down to 0.033 on August 12, a drop of 67% over more than two months, beaten down alongside the meme sector of the market with no resistance. Whoever held it then was mocked. Phase two (August 14-22): initiation. +12.4%, +5.7%, +18.1%, +11.3%, with consecutive volume increases, and a single-day jump of +31.7% on August 22. Phase three (August 23 to now): acceleration. Today another +31.9%, current price $0.0898. 14 days +178%, 30 days +108%, 7 days +66%, 24 hours +51%. Why can a "useless" coin rise so much? I broke it down into three reasons: 1. Ironic marketing itself is the moat of meme coins. Other coins boast about "changing the world," but this one calls itself "useless" — this kind of self-mockery actually becomes the strongest memory hook. AFR financial media even wrote a special report: "Why traders keep buying a coin that calls itself 'useless'" The August rally left the market with a thought-provoking note: Bitcoin's monthly gain was nearly 25%, briefly surpassing $81,000, but failed to break out smoothly. After hitting a high, the price quickly fell back to around $77,000, then slowly recovered to $79,000, clearly showing concentrated selling pressure in the 80K to 82K range. 📉 Interestingly, institutional attitudes contrasted with price trends. Bitcoin ETFs had recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with outflows of $201.9 million only on August 28, indicating that large funds had not truly exited. A strong monthly chart, institutional buying, and resistance levels coexisted, indicating the market is in a typical momentum gathering phase, waiting for a new catalyst to break the balance. ⚖️ September's macro environment is not easy: US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices back above $90, US Treasury yields continue to rise, market expectations for Fed rate hikes are heating up, and key nonfarm payroll data is coming this week. These factors put pressure on risk assets; for Bitcoin to break above the 80K level, stronger spot buying will be needed. If the 77K support holds, the breakout window remains; If macro pressure intensifies, prices may continue to hover below 80K. 🔍 For ETH, SOL, and XRP, I watch whether they can maintain relative strength during BTC's consolidation—if they weaken simultaneously, it indicates external pressure has taken over. August proved buyers' willingness to accumulate, while September will test their determination to push prices higher. The market direction may be revealed this week. Please note that digital assets are highly volatileLast night, the $SNDK candlestick was classic — first a drop then a pullback, a double kill for bulls and bears.
After opening with a surge, it plunged sharply, hitting a low of 1449.50. The short sellers were feeling smug, but the close saw a violent rebound, finishing at 1566.70, up 5.5%. Thought it was going to crash? It turned around and hit a new high. This isn’t a technical move; it’s a blatant shakeout.
The real trigger was the news: $SNDK was officially included in the MSCI Global Index after the close on August 31. All passive funds tracking this index had to complete their positions before the close, leading to concentrated buying at the end of the session — that’s the truth behind the $100 late-session surge.
Fundamentals are even stronger: Bernstein set a $3000 price target, and Mizuho maintains an outperform rating. AI reasoning and KV cache expansion continue to drive demand for high-capacity SSDs — storage chips aren’t just a story, they’re a money printer.
My judgment: The 1450 level has been repeatedly tested, with lows at 1416 on August 24 and 1449 on August 31 — the lows are rising, the base is solid. This kind of “false breakdown, real accumulation” is big money grabbing liquidity from MSCI inclusion, making shorting very risky.
Strategy: Buy in batches on pullbacks to the 1480-1500 range, set stop loss below 1450, target 1550-1580.
Brothers, do you think this $SNDK bottom is stable? 👇$SNDK Let's review and discuss several reasons for today's sharp drop in $XAU, listed in order of importance (personal ranking).
First, the bond market collapsed: the US 10Y Treasury yield rose to around 4.8%, the highest since early 1998; meanwhile, Japan's 10Y reached 3%, the UK's 10Y exceeded 5.25%, and Germany's 10Y hit 3.36%; this is a global bond sell-off.
Second, the hawkish speech by the new Federal Reserve Chair, Waller: this directly increased the probability of a Fed rate hike. As of today, the chance of a rate hike in September has risen to 66%; high interest rates undoubtedly suppress gold prices, and the market is already front-running this expectation.
Third, the US dollar strengthened: influenced by rate hike expectations, the dollar strengthened against currencies like the yen and the pound, and the dollar index rose; correspondingly, gold prices came under pressure, as people prefer holding dollars over non-yielding gold.
Finally, gold had a significant prior rally, so a correction was indeed needed; the above factors further amplified the correction.
Attentive readers may have noticed I deliberately omitted an important event, namely the escalation of US-Iran conflict; the impact of this event on gold is complex and will be discussed separately.
P.S. Attached below is the US dollar index trend.
#美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元
@OKX星球 Today, the real variable in the crypto world might not be BTC.
It's oil prices and U.S. Treasury bonds.
Oil prices surged to around $92, and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the market even starting to trade "Fed rate hikes" again.
So BTC just broke above 80,000 but was quickly pushed back down.
Interestingly, institutional funds haven't clearly fled.
On one hand, macro conditions are cooling; on the other, funds are still flowing in.
Is this wave just a normal shakeout in a bull market, or is macro risk starting to be repriced?
September might be much tougher to navigate than August $BTC $ETH $BTC $ETH
$HYPE The strength really has its reasons.
Data from Allium shows that the scale of cryptocurrency buybacks reached $638 million this year, far exceeding the same period last year.
As of August, Hyperliquid leads with about $370 million in buybacks, followed closely by Pumpfun with $200 million.
This means the two projects alone account for 90%, while the remaining N projects share less than $100 million.
This is the core issue: buybacks are a strategy borrowed from the stock market, and for it to work, there is a premise: you really have to be making money.
Hyperliquid earns fees from perpetual contracts, and pump.fun profits from token issuance commissions; both are businesses with solid cash flow. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Bitcoin’s cycle bottoms are getting less painful:
2011: -58% below market cost basis
2015: -44%
2018: -31%
2022: -25%
2026: +10%
In simple terms:
Each cycle, Bitcoin is falling less below the average investor’s cost.
If the 2026 low holds, this could be the first major cycle bottom where BTC never traded below the market’s cost basis.
That’s a big sign of a maturing Bitcoin market.After Wash-Jackson Hall's speech, the probability of a rate hike in September soared from 35% to nearly 60%. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has reached 65.4%. What about Bitcoin? It has sharply dropped from above $81,000, once falling to around $76,000. Now it is fluctuating around $79,000. The market has already priced in a lot for a "hawkish Fed." Everyone is waiting for Friday's nonfarm payroll release. Here's the question—what if the nonfarm payroll data falls exactly in the "neither good nor bad" range? Will the market's expected 'one-sided narrative' be broken? "In July, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, and the May and June data were revised down by a combined 103,000. The average job growth over the past three months was only about 20,000. On the surface, the job market looks very weak. But look closely: the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1%, the lowest in 13 months. This improvement is only related to the labor force participation rate dropping to 61.4%. The drop in unemployment is not entirely due to stronger job demand. Some people have directly exited the labor market. The job market is not a complete collapse. It has structural issues. What is the market's current expectation for August's nonfarm payrolls? Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs. Deutsche Bank expects 65,000. Wells Fargo expects 80,000. NBC expects 80,000. From -23,000 to +58,000, the market expects a "violent rebound." Unemployment rate forecast remains at 4.1%. This is quite interesting—has the market priced in the logic of "weak nonfarm → not raising rates"?Ethereum ETF has had net inflows for 11 consecutive days
Is Wall Street collectively bullish on Ethereum? 😂
This time Ethereum really has something going on
US spot ETH ETF
Net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days
11 days, brother
Not buying one day and resting two
But buying continuously for 11 days
On August 31 alone, about $87.68 million came in
BlackRock's ETHA alone took nearly $60 million
When retail investors buy ETH
Damn, it dropped so much, can we still buy?
But Wall Street is totally different
Drop? It dropped, perfect, keep buying 😂
This is a bit infuriating
Before, ETH was disliked by the market like a twice-divorced old man
Funds were indifferent
Now it's different
ETF funds suddenly start queuing to enter
This shows one thing
Institutional interest in $ETH
Is really coming back
And the most intriguing part this time is
ETH price hasn't blindly skyrocketed like $BTC $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Today, TRIA plunged 24%, and many people thought it was caused by a $1.1 million Rain contract loophole. But if you look at the historical data, you'll find: from its July 7 high of $0.033 to July 12, TRIA dropped 76% in one week. That week, BTC stayed above $60,000 and even rose slightly—in other words, this main decline had nothing to do with the overall market, but was purely a "structural collapse" for individual coins. Today's negative news was just the last straw that broke the camel's back. Looking back over the past 90 days, TRIA has hit every pitfall new coin should have had. I break it down into four signals. If any one appears on a new coin you're optimistic about, be cautious: Signal 1: Market cap and FDV diverge sharply from TRIA's market cap by 8.4M, but FDV (fully diluted valuation) reaches as high as 125.6M—a 15-fold gap. This means over 90% of tokens are still locked up, the circulating market is very small, it's easy to pump the market, and selling is easier. The circulating market is the "naked swimming detector" for new coins. Signal 2: The unlock schedule is a sword hanging over the head. Community tokens have unlocked 1.45B/4.1B (35%), with 887 days of continuous release. New tokens enter the market every day, and rebounds are the selling point. Look at August 19: Robinhood Chain integrated positive news surged +18.5%, then was swallowed back by -23% the next day—a textbook volume of positive news. Signal BTC rose 26% in August, but entering September, what we really need to be cautious about might not be the coin price, but the interest rates.
Over the past month, BTC strengthened, with the core logic being: the US dollar weakened, the market bet on looser liquidity, and funds flowed back into hard assets like gold and BTC.
But Wash recently poured cold water on the market. At the G20 meeting, he mentioned that globally it used to be "too much money, too few good projects," but now it's the opposite. AI, energy, and infrastructure are absorbing a lot of capital, interest rates might be higher than expected and stay elevated longer.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has returned above 5.2%, previously hitting 5.34%, the highest since 2007. Although the Treasury has doubled the long-term bond buyback scale from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, it can only ease volatility and is unlikely to reverse the long-end interest rate trend.
If the economy continues to be strong, AI capital support keeps increasing, and US bond yields remain high, cash and bonds can also provide decent returns, then BTC and gold, which do not generate cash flow, will naturally lose appeal.
So Wash is not announcing the "end of the BTC bull market," but reminding the market that the "dollar depreciation + liquidity easing" logic traded over the past month is being tested.
The 26% rise in August is already history. In September, the focus is on US bond yields, the dollar, and the Fed's stance.
If long-term rates continue to rise and BTC can still hold $80,000, it would actually indicate the market is really strong; if it can't hold, then whether this rally is a trend start or a liquidity-driven big rebound needs to be reassessed.Something has changed in the way BTC is trading lately.
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has been getting stronger, and personally, I find that more interesting than another short term BTC price target. For much of the recent cycle, Bitcoin often behaved like a high-beta tech asset. Now we’re seeing BTC and gold respond more closely to some of the same concerns government debt, inflation, currency debasement and long-term monetary uncertainty.
That definitely gives the “digital gold” argument more weight, but I’m still not fully convinced.
Gold has decades of history as a defensive asset. Bitcoin is younger, much more volatile and can still behave very differently when markets suddenly turn risk off.
For me, the real test won’t be whether BTC and gold rally together during a good month. I want to see what happens during the next serious market shock.
If stocks fall hard and BTC stays closer to gold than tech, that would really get my attention.
Until then, I see this as an interesting shift not proof that Bitcoin has officially become digital gold.
#BTCGoldCorrelation $BTC Tonight, the Planet Hot List puts BTC and gold together, but I actually want to remind you: rising together for a few days does not mean they have become a trading pair.
Kaiko's statistics over the past year show that the 30-day rolling correlation between BTC and gold fluctuates between -0.48 and 0.67. CME, after extending the period, found that since 2024, their correlation has mostly hovered near 0. Correlation changes with the sample window and market environment, and short-term alignment can easily be interrupted by a new event.
Gold is more often influenced by real interest rates, the US dollar, and safe-haven demand. BTC is also driven by tech stock risk appetite, ETF funds, and leverage in the crypto market. Tonight on OKX, BTC is about $78,100, down about 0.7% in 24 hours. Just chasing BTC because gold is strong, I think the evidence is insufficient.
I treat gold as a background variable and then look at the Nasdaq, the dollar, and BTC's own capital flows. If they don't confirm together, I won't increase my position with the term "digital gold."
Personal record, not investment advice.
$BTC #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $KO Market Watch｜Anomalous Scene: Traditional Safe-Haven Assets Sold Off Collectively
After the hawkish outcome of the Jackson Hole Symposium, global major asset classes showed a rare abnormal trend: geopolitical risks have not yet subsided, but traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the yen were collectively sold off. Even the defensive leader $KO Coca-Cola retreated from its highs, signaling a complete shift in market risk-off logic.
This meeting released a strong signal for rate hikes, with the market's probability of a September rate hike jumping sharply from 35% to 64%–66%. The expectation of rising interest rates completely overwhelmed the demand for geopolitical safe havens, becoming the core dominant logic in the current market.
Traditional safe-haven assets weakened across the board: gold plunged over $300 from its August peak, as the high interest rate environment continues to suppress the valuation of non-yielding assets; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to a new phase high, putting continuous pressure on Treasury prices; silver also fell sharply to a new phase low, the yen continued to depreciate and weaken, and the traditional safe-haven track failed comprehensively.
Previously, defensive blue-chip $KO, which served as a capital refuge during market volatility, could no longer withstand macro pressure. The stock hit a historic high earlier, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 31.6%, but recently it has been steadily retreating from highs, with a significant cumulative pullback over five trading days. The capital structure shows a notable divergence: while major players slightly net bought, small and medium investors have been continuously fleeing, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
The biggest change in the market now: risk-off no longer means buying gold, bonds, or defensive stocks, but cash is king, and the dollar is king. The U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen, approaching the 100-point mark. In a high real interest rate environment, all non-yielding and low-yield assets are undergoing valuation reappraisal. The lobster whale has most likely started selling tokens, the data is very straightforward, let's take a look at the data together!
Data changes of the top 40 lobster holders on 2026.9.1
Gate ：Outflow 5.14% 47.49%
Binance ：Outflow 1.84%
MEXC ：Inflow 1.28%
pancake ：Outflow 15.94%
New entries in top 40: 8 people, all inflows
Dropped out of top 40: 8 people, 4 fully exited, 3 reduced holdings, 1 dropped in ranking
Top 40 increased holdings: 5 people, 3 inflows, 2 increased holdings
Top 40 decreased holdings: 11 people, 5 reduced holdings, 6 outflows
$Lobster Daily Key Summary:
Compared to previous days, the on-chain data of lobster has become more complex, but many things can still be seen from the data. Gate outflowed over 40 million tokens. The 8 new addresses entering the top 40 are all inflows with no one buying. Among the 8 who dropped out, 7 clearly either fully exited or reduced holdings, only 1 dropped in ranking. Regarding the increase and decrease data, very few increased holdings but many reduced holdings. The data already reflects that the front runners are accelerating their escape. Single kill inference suggests the whale has started to unload. Previously Gate was always inflowing, now it starts small daily outflows. Everyone must pay attention to the risk here. That's roughly the data, see you next time! Trade Review:
After last week's market surge to 81500 and subsequent sweep, Wash then released a hawkish message. The market has pulled back these past two days due to increased expectations of a September rate hike, but BTC has shown resilience, and gold has undergone a clear and smooth correction, reaching the pullback target I anticipated.
Main points expressed:
1. The pullback caused by rate hike concerns is a good thing; as long as the policy decision remains unchanged, it is positive (not optimistic about Wash's rate hike).
2. BTC's correction is not over yet; it is currently in a range-bound adjustment, and after the pullback ends, another rise is expected.
2. Gold's first phase of correction is over; all short positions above 4600 have been closed for profit, and a rebound is expected next.
There are many directly related data points this month; it is recommended to anticipate data releases and prepare accordingly.
[Personal trading views only, not investment advice]
$BTC $ETH $XAU $TRUMP's 80 billion is a paper-diluted valuation bubble, not a circulating market value built on real money; the confidence comes from the presidential IP + low circulating supply + global crypto FOMO, representing a typical one-time event Meme bull market, not a new top-tier infrastructure.
In a bubble market, it's easy to develop the illusion that "my holdings aren't valuable."80,000 is a psychological barrier, not the end point
Last week $BTC touched 81,500 and then was pushed back, many immediately started saying "top confirmed, September will definitely be bullish"
Please, August just saw one of the best Augusts in recent years, the bears have already been liquidated once, ETF had a net inflow of 217 million on Monday, with IBIT contributing the majority
If the 77,000 area holds, this wave is just consolidation; breaking it is another matter. Now the screen is full of people shouting about September seasonal bearishness, and at times like this $BTC loves to prove them wrong
Not telling you to go all in, just reminding you: when consensus is too uniform, prices usually don’t follow the consensus path Mask Brother leveraged tech/storage stocks**, with a peak unrealized profit of 180 million in July but didn’t exit
- By the end of July, after this tech stock crash, he ended up with a net loss of 67 million**
- He’s in a very low mood, went to Yunnan to relax, and fans in the comment section are already "demanding rights"
- His way to recover losses is through **planet membership fees, roughly tens of millions per year** — the money lost is from fans copying trades, the money earned is from fans paying membership fees, think about this cycle carefully
The most ironic thing is that on August 2 he posted an article titled "The peak of storage is most likely not this year," with the core point "the absolute price peak will be in Q1 2027" — translated as "I didn’t lose, I’ll turn it around next round."
**This matter directly concerns you in two ways:**
1. **Unrealized profit is not money.** An unrealized profit of 180 million turning into a net loss of 67 million means he used leverage + didn’t use trailing stop-loss. Your PENGU sale was the opposite (missed profits), but at least the principal was safe; his side lost all profits and even owes money. The correct approach is always: **let profits run, but move stop-losses up, locking in some profits bit by bit.**
2. **You should listen to this type of influencer in reverse.** The more heavily he’s losing in tech stocks, the louder he shouts "AI turning point" and "storage hasn’t peaked" — because he needs a rebound to break even. Today’s Apple video is factually true, but his bullish stance is hostage to his position size.
Your current discipline of 50U small contract positions, buying spot in batches, and no leverage is the lesson he bought with 67 million.