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$BTC $ETH $HYPE The strength really has its reasons. Data from Allium shows that the scale of cryptocurrency buybacks reached $638 million this year, far exceeding the same period last year. As of August, Hyperliquid leads with about $370 million in buybacks, followed closely by Pumpfun with $200 million. This means the two projects alone account for 90%, while the remaining N projects share less than $100 million. This is the core issue: buybacks are a strategy borrowed from the stock market, and for it to work, there is a premise: you really have to be making money. Hyperliquid earns fees from perpetual contracts, and pump.fun profits from token issuance commissions; both are businesses with solid cash flow. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Bitcoin’s cycle bottoms are getting less painful: 2011: -58% below market cost basis 2015: -44% 2018: -31% 2022: -25% 2026: +10% In simple terms: Each cycle, Bitcoin is falling less below the average investor’s cost. If the 2026 low holds, this could be the first major cycle bottom where BTC never traded below the market’s cost basis. That’s a big sign of a maturing Bitcoin market.After Wash-Jackson Hall's speech, the probability of a rate hike in September soared from 35% to nearly 60%. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has reached 65.4%. What about Bitcoin? It has sharply dropped from above $81,000, once falling to around $76,000. Now it is fluctuating around $79,000. The market has already priced in a lot for a "hawkish Fed." Everyone is waiting for Friday's nonfarm payroll release. Here's the question—what if the nonfarm payroll data falls exactly in the "neither good nor bad" range? Will the market's expected 'one-sided narrative' be broken? "In July, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, and the May and June data were revised down by a combined 103,000. The average job growth over the past three months was only about 20,000. On the surface, the job market looks very weak. But look closely: the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1%, the lowest in 13 months. This improvement is only related to the labor force participation rate dropping to 61.4%. The drop in unemployment is not entirely due to stronger job demand. Some people have directly exited the labor market. The job market is not a complete collapse. It has structural issues. What is the market's current expectation for August's nonfarm payrolls? Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000 jobs. Deutsche Bank expects 65,000. Wells Fargo expects 80,000. NBC expects 80,000. From -23,000 to +58,000, the market expects a "violent rebound." Unemployment rate forecast remains at 4.1%. This is quite interesting—has the market priced in the logic of "weak nonfarm → not raising rates"?Ethereum ETF has had net inflows for 11 consecutive days Is Wall Street collectively bullish on Ethereum? 😂 This time Ethereum really has something going on US spot ETH ETF Net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days 11 days, brother Not buying one day and resting two But buying continuously for 11 days On August 31 alone, about $87.68 million came in BlackRock's ETHA alone took nearly $60 million When retail investors buy ETH Damn, it dropped so much, can we still buy? But Wall Street is totally different Drop? It dropped, perfect, keep buying 😂 This is a bit infuriating Before, ETH was disliked by the market like a twice-divorced old man Funds were indifferent Now it's different ETF funds suddenly start queuing to enter This shows one thing Institutional interest in $ETH Is really coming back And the most intriguing part this time is ETH price hasn't blindly skyrocketed like $BTC $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Today, TRIA plunged 24%, and many people thought it was caused by a $1.1 million Rain contract loophole. But if you look at the historical data, you'll find: from its July 7 high of $0.033 to July 12, TRIA dropped 76% in one week. That week, BTC stayed above $60,000 and even rose slightly—in other words, this main decline had nothing to do with the overall market, but was purely a "structural collapse" for individual coins. Today's negative news was just the last straw that broke the camel's back. Looking back over the past 90 days, TRIA has hit every pitfall new coin should have had. I break it down into four signals. If any one appears on a new coin you're optimistic about, be cautious: Signal 1: Market cap and FDV diverge sharply from TRIA's market cap by 8.4M, but FDV (fully diluted valuation) reaches as high as 125.6M—a 15-fold gap. This means over 90% of tokens are still locked up, the circulating market is very small, it's easy to pump the market, and selling is easier. The circulating market is the "naked swimming detector" for new coins. Signal 2: The unlock schedule is a sword hanging over the head. Community tokens have unlocked 1.45B/4.1B (35%), with 887 days of continuous release. New tokens enter the market every day, and rebounds are the selling point. Look at August 19: Robinhood Chain integrated positive news surged +18.5%, then was swallowed back by -23% the next day—a textbook volume of positive news. Signal BTC rose 26% in August, but entering September, what we really need to be cautious about might not be the coin price, but the interest rates. Over the past month, BTC strengthened, with the core logic being: the US dollar weakened, the market bet on looser liquidity, and funds flowed back into hard assets like gold and BTC. But Wash recently poured cold water on the market. At the G20 meeting, he mentioned that globally it used to be "too much money, too few good projects," but now it's the opposite. AI, energy, and infrastructure are absorbing a lot of capital, interest rates might be higher than expected and stay elevated longer. The US 30-year Treasury yield has returned above 5.2%, previously hitting 5.34%, the highest since 2007. Although the Treasury has doubled the long-term bond buyback scale from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, it can only ease volatility and is unlikely to reverse the long-end interest rate trend. If the economy continues to be strong, AI capital support keeps increasing, and US bond yields remain high, cash and bonds can also provide decent returns, then BTC and gold, which do not generate cash flow, will naturally lose appeal. So Wash is not announcing the "end of the BTC bull market," but reminding the market that the "dollar depreciation + liquidity easing" logic traded over the past month is being tested. The 26% rise in August is already history. In September, the focus is on US bond yields, the dollar, and the Fed's stance. If long-term rates continue to rise and BTC can still hold $80,000, it would actually indicate the market is really strong; if it can't hold, then whether this rally is a trend start or a liquidity-driven big rebound needs to be reassessed.Something has changed in the way BTC is trading lately. Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has been getting stronger, and personally, I find that more interesting than another short term BTC price target. For much of the recent cycle, Bitcoin often behaved like a high-beta tech asset. Now we’re seeing BTC and gold respond more closely to some of the same concerns government debt, inflation, currency debasement and long-term monetary uncertainty. That definitely gives the “digital gold” argument more weight, but I’m still not fully convinced. Gold has decades of history as a defensive asset. Bitcoin is younger, much more volatile and can still behave very differently when markets suddenly turn risk off. For me, the real test won’t be whether BTC and gold rally together during a good month. I want to see what happens during the next serious market shock. If stocks fall hard and BTC stays closer to gold than tech, that would really get my attention. Until then, I see this as an interesting shift not proof that Bitcoin has officially become digital gold. #BTCGoldCorrelation $BTC Tonight, the Planet Hot List puts BTC and gold together, but I actually want to remind you: rising together for a few days does not mean they have become a trading pair. Kaiko's statistics over the past year show that the 30-day rolling correlation between BTC and gold fluctuates between -0.48 and 0.67. CME, after extending the period, found that since 2024, their correlation has mostly hovered near 0. Correlation changes with the sample window and market environment, and short-term alignment can easily be interrupted by a new event. Gold is more often influenced by real interest rates, the US dollar, and safe-haven demand. BTC is also driven by tech stock risk appetite, ETF funds, and leverage in the crypto market. Tonight on OKX, BTC is about $78,100, down about 0.7% in 24 hours. Just chasing BTC because gold is strong, I think the evidence is insufficient. I treat gold as a background variable and then look at the Nasdaq, the dollar, and BTC's own capital flows. If they don't confirm together, I won't increase my position with the term "digital gold." Personal record, not investment advice. $BTC #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $KO Market Watch｜Anomalous Scene: Traditional Safe-Haven Assets Sold Off Collectively After the hawkish outcome of the Jackson Hole Symposium, global major asset classes showed a rare abnormal trend: geopolitical risks have not yet subsided, but traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the yen were collectively sold off. Even the defensive leader $KO Coca-Cola retreated from its highs, signaling a complete shift in market risk-off logic. This meeting released a strong signal for rate hikes, with the market's probability of a September rate hike jumping sharply from 35% to 64%–66%. The expectation of rising interest rates completely overwhelmed the demand for geopolitical safe havens, becoming the core dominant logic in the current market. Traditional safe-haven assets weakened across the board: gold plunged over $300 from its August peak, as the high interest rate environment continues to suppress the valuation of non-yielding assets; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to a new phase high, putting continuous pressure on Treasury prices; silver also fell sharply to a new phase low, the yen continued to depreciate and weaken, and the traditional safe-haven track failed comprehensively. Previously, defensive blue-chip $KO, which served as a capital refuge during market volatility, could no longer withstand macro pressure. The stock hit a historic high earlier, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 31.6%, but recently it has been steadily retreating from highs, with a significant cumulative pullback over five trading days. The capital structure shows a notable divergence: while major players slightly net bought, small and medium investors have been continuously fleeing, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears. The biggest change in the market now: risk-off no longer means buying gold, bonds, or defensive stocks, but cash is king, and the dollar is king. The U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen, approaching the 100-point mark. In a high real interest rate environment, all non-yielding and low-yield assets are undergoing valuation reappraisal. The lobster whale has most likely started selling tokens, the data is very straightforward, let's take a look at the data together! Data changes of the top 40 lobster holders on 2026.9.1 Gate ：Outflow 5.14% 47.49% Binance ：Outflow 1.84% MEXC ：Inflow 1.28% pancake ：Outflow 15.94% New entries in top 40: 8 people, all inflows Dropped out of top 40: 8 people, 4 fully exited, 3 reduced holdings, 1 dropped in ranking Top 40 increased holdings: 5 people, 3 inflows, 2 increased holdings Top 40 decreased holdings: 11 people, 5 reduced holdings, 6 outflows $Lobster Daily Key Summary: Compared to previous days, the on-chain data of lobster has become more complex, but many things can still be seen from the data. Gate outflowed over 40 million tokens. The 8 new addresses entering the top 40 are all inflows with no one buying. Among the 8 who dropped out, 7 clearly either fully exited or reduced holdings, only 1 dropped in ranking. Regarding the increase and decrease data, very few increased holdings but many reduced holdings. The data already reflects that the front runners are accelerating their escape. Single kill inference suggests the whale has started to unload. Previously Gate was always inflowing, now it starts small daily outflows. Everyone must pay attention to the risk here. That's roughly the data, see you next time! Trade Review: After last week's market surge to 81500 and subsequent sweep, Wash then released a hawkish message. The market has pulled back these past two days due to increased expectations of a September rate hike, but BTC has shown resilience, and gold has undergone a clear and smooth correction, reaching the pullback target I anticipated. Main points expressed: 1. The pullback caused by rate hike concerns is a good thing; as long as the policy decision remains unchanged, it is positive (not optimistic about Wash's rate hike). 2. BTC's correction is not over yet; it is currently in a range-bound adjustment, and after the pullback ends, another rise is expected. 2. Gold's first phase of correction is over; all short positions above 4600 have been closed for profit, and a rebound is expected next. There are many directly related data points this month; it is recommended to anticipate data releases and prepare accordingly. [Personal trading views only, not investment advice] $BTC $ETH $XAU $TRUMP's 80 billion is a paper-diluted valuation bubble, not a circulating market value built on real money; the confidence comes from the presidential IP + low circulating supply + global crypto FOMO, representing a typical one-time event Meme bull market, not a new top-tier infrastructure. In a bubble market, it's easy to develop the illusion that "my holdings aren't valuable."80,000 is a psychological barrier, not the end point Last week $BTC touched 81,500 and then was pushed back, many immediately started saying "top confirmed, September will definitely be bullish" Please, August just saw one of the best Augusts in recent years, the bears have already been liquidated once, ETF had a net inflow of 217 million on Monday, with IBIT contributing the majority If the 77,000 area holds, this wave is just consolidation; breaking it is another matter. Now the screen is full of people shouting about September seasonal bearishness, and at times like this $BTC loves to prove them wrong Not telling you to go all in, just reminding you: when consensus is too uniform, prices usually don’t follow the consensus path Mask Brother leveraged tech/storage stocks**, with a peak unrealized profit of 180 million in July but didn’t exit - By the end of July, after this tech stock crash, he ended up with a net loss of 67 million** - He’s in a very low mood, went to Yunnan to relax, and fans in the comment section are already "demanding rights" - His way to recover losses is through **planet membership fees, roughly tens of millions per year** — the money lost is from fans copying trades, the money earned is from fans paying membership fees, think about this cycle carefully The most ironic thing is that on August 2 he posted an article titled "The peak of storage is most likely not this year," with the core point "the absolute price peak will be in Q1 2027" — translated as "I didn’t lose, I’ll turn it around next round." **This matter directly concerns you in two ways:** 1. **Unrealized profit is not money.** An unrealized profit of 180 million turning into a net loss of 67 million means he used leverage + didn’t use trailing stop-loss. Your PENGU sale was the opposite (missed profits), but at least the principal was safe; his side lost all profits and even owes money. The correct approach is always: **let profits run, but move stop-losses up, locking in some profits bit by bit.** 2. **You should listen to this type of influencer in reverse.** The more heavily he’s losing in tech stocks, the louder he shouts "AI turning point" and "storage hasn’t peaked" — because he needs a rebound to break even. Today’s Apple video is factually true, but his bullish stance is hostage to his position size. Your current discipline of 50U small contract positions, buying spot in batches, and no leverage is the lesson he bought with 67 million.On Monday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $217 million. After about $202 million in outflows the previous Friday, funds flowed back again. This outflow ended a nine-day streak of buying momentum, which dates back to August 19—matching the longest inflow streak this year. Ethereum ETFs have never stopped. On Monday, $88 million was inflowed, marking the 11th consecutive trading day of net buying, with net purchases reaching $1.6 billion. This is the longest streak of buying for this type of product since a 20-day rally ended in July 2025. The "one-day break" is interpreted as a correction, not a reversal. The only turning positive on Friday occurred after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech pushed rate hike expectations higher. Monday's rebound suggests that allotters view it as a single-day correction rather than the starting point of a reversal. This difference remains an open question this week. The net outflow period from May to July—which led to a total reduction of about $2.5 billion in funds in 2026 and a net negative position—was similar from the start: sporadic red trading days appeared before the pattern was set. This week's data will determine which interpretation holds. The net asset value of Bitcoin ETFs closed just under $100 billion in August. After breaking through that level on August 27, Friday's sell-off pulled it back. Since its launch in January 2024, the fund's cumulative net inflows have now approached $55 billion, with August by a wide margin making it the strongest month for Bitcoin ETFs in 2026—over 4SanDisk plunged pre-market after a massive 5.5% surge, is it MSCI passive buying or a storage logic reboot? SanDisk closed overnight at $1566.70, up 5.50%, with a trading volume of $36 billion ranking first in US stocks, turnover rate at 15.97%—a huge volume. The intraday low was $1449.50, the high $1572.69, with a price range exceeding $120. The core reason for the surge is only one: after the close on August 31, SanDisk was officially included in the MSCI Global Index, prompting passive funds to concentrate buying at the close. In the last 45 minutes, the price jumped from a slight decline directly to a 5.5% gain, a typical index rebalancing pulse. The storage sector rose collectively—Micron up 2.77%, Western Digital and SK Hynix both up over 4%. Pre-market has already dropped more than 2.5% to $1527. The question is who will take over after the pulse funds exit. SanDisk is still 33.5% below the historical high of $2354 on June 22. The 15.97% turnover indicates huge divergence—some are buying, some are selling. Fundamentally, HBM spot prices have been speculated to be five times the long-term contract price, PC memory prices rose 60% and are still sold out, but the "five times" figure is unverified. My judgment: yesterday was a mechanical buy driven by MSCI rebalancing, not a fundamental breakout. After the pulse, it will most likely retreat; wait for a pullback to 1480-1500 with reduced volume to stabilize before considering action. Don't mistake index rebalancing for a long-term bullish signal. For reference only, not investment advice. $SNDK #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $SNDK $xMU $SKHY Memory Chips—HBM Spot Prices Soar to 4-5 Times Long-Term Contract Prices, Highlighting Profit Flexibility of Flexible Capacity Amid Worsening Supply-Demand Imbalance [Key Insights] As major memory manufacturers lock about 70% of HBM capacity through long-term agreements, spot market supply is extremely tight, with HBM3E spot prices soaring to 4 to 5 times the long-term contract prices. The huge price gap reveals the true extent of the HBM supply-demand imbalance. The flexible capacity remaining with memory suppliers has far greater profit potential than the market expects, and this will also force the supply chain to seek diversified cooperation to control the cost of key HBM components.Empty entry River protocol TVL has plummeted from a peak of $605 million to about $161 million. The market cap of satUSD is only $159 million, ranking as the 40th largest stablecoin — fundamentals are shrinking, yet the price once soared to $87, indicating the extent of the bubble. A 98% retracement is not the bottom. Falling from $87 to $1.4, the market has already voted with the price. Circulation rate below 20%, continuous token unlocking, protocol TVL contraction — triple signal resonance, the downtrend is far from over. $CORE Just checked the contract and got a cold sweat. All the support and buy-ins below 0.02 CORE are less than ten million. If ten million is dumped, the price will directly fall below 0.001, which means it will go to zero! In the spot market, the support below 0.02 is still somewhat decent, around ninety million. Together, both only have about one hundred million tokens supporting the price! Considering the loss of over three hundred million tokens, if they are dumped, you can imagine how far the price will fall! But please, don’t dump it all at once, or else no one will have anything to play with in the future. So, I ask you, how much can you still hold? 😀【NVDA｜$216, Earnings Continue to Impress, but Market Begins to Worry About AI Valuation】 NVDA is now around $216, just after the latest earnings catalyst: the company’s quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, and the guidance for the next quarter’s revenue is also significantly above market expectations. (fortune.com) However, today the overall U.S. stock market was pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields and declining risk appetite, with the semiconductor sector broadly under pressure, and NVDA also experiencing a pullback. (reuters.com) From a trading perspective: Earnings are accelerating, but the stock price is starting to face the dual test of valuation and interest rates. If $216 can hold and the price can climb back above $220, it indicates that capital is still willing to pay for AI growth; but if $216 breaks, caution is needed against further profit-taking at high levels. NVDA’s biggest contradiction now is not AI demand, but how high the market can still value such strong earnings. Do you think NVDA at $216 is just a pullback to gather strength, or is the AI rally entering a valuation digestion phase? #NVDA #NVIDIA #AI #USStockTradingShort-term oil prices are generally bullish. On one hand, concentrated short-covering triggers passive buying, rapidly pushing oil prices up; on the other hand, the escalation of US-Iran tensions and supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz raise geopolitical risk premiums. However, whether the mid-term trend can continue mainly depends on whether futures open interest (OI) rebounds again. Two scenarios to distinguish: ✅ Oil price rises + OI rebounds: indicates institutions are actively building long positions, and this rally is likely to strengthen further. ✅ Oil price rises + OI continues to decline: the rally is essentially a short squeeze, prone to a quick pullback after the spike. Key short-term WTI crude oil price levels for reference: $85 is short-term support; $88 is direct resistance; $90 is an important psychological barrier. Successfully holding above $90: the market will reprice crude supply risks, driving strength in the energy sector and pushing inflation expectations higher. Breaking below $85 effectively: signals the end of the short-covering rally, with market focus returning to demand data and inventory reports. Overall judgment: this current rally is a short-covering triggered by geopolitical conflict, not a bull market initiated by systematic institutional accumulation. Three key follow-up indicators: whether WTI can hold the $90 level, whether futures open interest recovers, and whether Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to worsen. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 It's over. Recently, US spot crypto ETFs have seen a round of capital inflows, with the two major coins seeing a combined net inflow for the week hitting a nearly 10-month high, but capital preference is clearly diverging. ETH-ETF has maintained net inflows for several consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA as the main bearer. In contrast, BTC-ETFs exhibit a wave pattern of "big inflows and outflows on pullbacks," with some trading days showing net capital outflows. The deeper reasons lie in the different capital attributes of the two types of institutions: $BTC - ETFs contain a large number of trading institutions, and once the market fluctuates, they quickly take profits and exit, with capital fluctuating significantly following prices. $ETH - ETF new funds are mostly medium- to long-term allocation positions, and the allocation dividends brought by the launch of gambling pledge ETFs involve staggered allocation on pullbacks. However, this batch of funds also has shortcomings and is a risk-averse capital. If macroeconomic tightening continues, centralized redemptions will also occur. On-chain data simultaneously confirms this divergence: ETH continues to withdraw coins from exchanges into self-custody wallets, and exchange inventories keep hitting new lows; BTC exchange inventories have slightly increased, with some long-term holders returning their coins to exchanges during the rise to prepare for swing trading $ETH 8月31日，BitMine向美国SEC提交的公告显示，截至8月30日美东时间15:00，公司持有5,901,112枚ETH，较前一周增加53,501枚。The Block同日依据公告独立核对了这一变化。先区分时间：8月30日是资产统计时点，8月31日才对外披露；公司所称“4.9%”按约1.207亿枚ETH总供应量计算，并不等于控制了4.9%的日常可交易流通盘。 按公告采用的每枚2,511美元参考价，这批ETH账面价值约148亿美元。公司另持有211枚BTC、5.41亿美元现金及有价证券，以及两项合计2.61亿美元的其他股权投资；其披露的加密资产、现金、有价证券和其他投资总额为156亿美元。这里要注意，账面估值会随ETH价格实时变化，“持有价值”不等于已经实现的收入或利润。 这类企业财库持续吸收ETH，可能通过三条路径影响市场。第一，大额长期持仓减少短期可售筹码，但只有真实购入、托管和资金来源透明时，这一判断才有意义。第二，集中持仓会把ETH价格波动传导到上市公司的净资产、融资能力和股价，形成加密资产与股票市场之间更强的反馈。第三，公司距离其自定的“持有5%供应量”目标已很近，后续增持速今天市场又出现了一组非常有意思的数据。 CME最新利率预期显示，市场对9月政策转向的押注已经升至约61%，相比此前约32%的水平明显升温。按过去的经验，这种宏观预期突然转向，往往会给BTC带来较大的短线压力。 但这一次，剧本却没有完全照着走。 $BTC 一度回踩至约7.74万美元附近，随后出现反弹，并没有出现市场此前担心的连续跳水。 为什么？ 一个重要原因可能是：这轮上涨的底层资金结构，和过去的高杠杆行情有所不同。 近期市场数据显示，现货买盘依然占据相当重要的位置。虽然BTC未平仓合约规模有所增加，但资金费率和期现价差并没有出现极端扩张的情况。 换句话说： 👉 杠杆资金没有疯狂冲进去 👉 现货买盘仍然存在 👉 市场并非完全依赖空头爆仓推动上涨 链上资金动向同样值得关注。 数据显示，中大型BTC持有者近期仍在持续增加仓位，而部分小额持币地址则继续减仓。过去两个月，大型钱包累计增持规模已经超过6万枚BTC，而散户持仓趋势依旧偏弱。 这就形成了一个非常明显的现象： 🐋 大资金慢慢吸筹 👤 散户持续降低风险 📈 价格却没有出现单边突破 ETF市场也没有给出统一答案。 美国现货BTCBecause of the creation on the planet, I received a perpetual contract grid compensation coupon for US stocks, so I went to try out OKX's grid strategy these days. Taking my opened $SPCX grid as an example, I started a long position at 140.59U, with the range set from 110 to 250U, 80 grids, an arithmetic progression strategy. This means that within the price range of 110 to 250, the grid will continuously trade based on price fluctuations. With 80 grids in arithmetic progression, a trade is triggered every 1.75U movement; a buy is triggered for every grid drop, and a sell is triggered for every grid rise. More grids are not always better, as more grids mean more frequent trades and higher fees and losses. It should be noted that grid profit is the realized profit from completed buy and sell trades, while unpaired profit is the current floating profit or loss of the position. Therefore, during a decline, grid profit may be positive while unpaired profit is negative; the final profit depends on both factors. So, what market conditions are suitable for opening a grid? For my long strategy, oscillation or oscillating upward trends are best, but a one-sided decline is troublesome. Because in a long grid, more long positions are continuously built during a decline. If $SPCX falls below 110, the grid space is basically used up, the previous long positions remain, leverage becomes very high, and liquidation is likely. Of course, you can adjust the range and grid number strategy according to your preferences. Overall, the experience is very suitable for people who do not want to monitor the market frequently but have a certain preference for a particular coin. #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Federal Reserve Governor Barr's remarks have poured cold water on the market. He bluntly stated that inflation remains high, and if inflation does not come down, he will support further rate hikes. Inflation has long been above the 2% target. The market estimates a 66% chance of a rate hike this month. Simply put, as long as inflation data is weak, rate hikes could happen at any time. This is a knife hanging over the crypto market. Geopolitical conflicts continue to push oil prices higher, further increasing inflation concerns and indirectly amplifying the possibility of rate hikes. On the other hand, whale moves are also quite noteworthy. Well-known institution Abraxas Capital continues to increase its ETH short positions, adding 1,556 new ETH short positions. This former superstar on HyperLiquid has now lost heavily on short positions, with an unrealized loss of nearly $17.74 million, a loss of about 64%. Even at this point, they continue to short. It's clear that institutions are deeply divided about the outlook. However, its liquidation price is at $4,023, still quite a distance from the current price. In the short term, liquidations won't trigger. On one hand, Fed officials have made hawkish remarks, and the shadow of rate hikes lingers; On the other, whales are contrarian and keep going short on ETH, but are already suffering huge unrealized losses. When these two signals collide, the market becomes especially conflicted. Many people are easily swayed by a single piece of news—they think the market is about to crash when they see officials' speeches, and blindly short when they see whales add short positions. But whales also misjudge—if they keep shorting despite such large unrealized losses, it doesn't mean they're certain of itIn the past month, the A-share market has been playing a "fan" game: one day it rallies brokers, the next day it crushes semiconductors, and the day after it relies on photovoltaics to survive. Trading volume shrank from trillions to 700 billion, and those chasing the rally basically got stuck at the top. This kind of zero-sum game perfectly fits the crypto world. Look at $BTC, which has been oscillating between 58,000 and 65,000 throughout August, with the big players manipulating the market even more aggressively than A-share main forces. Meanwhile, $ETH pulsed with the news of the Cancun upgrade, but the positive impact was instantly wiped out, following the same pattern as stock market hype. From stocks, I learned one thing: during low-volume sideways trading, the biggest fear is a major negative news event because the support is too thin. Last week's sudden flash crash in crypto was a few minutes wiping out billions in orders, not even giving time to place stop-loss orders. So now, no matter what I trade, I always keep 30% cash on hand; if a key level breaks, I cut losses immediately and never average down. Veteran stock traders know that the louder the news, the more you should look at it contrarily. Those KOLs shouting "bull market return" in August are as unreliable as the big A-share influencers hyping "breakouts." Remember, no matter how long the sideways movement lasts, the vertical rise isn’t guaranteed; more often, it’s another dip. Don’t fall in love with the market—take profits when you can, cut losses when you must, and stay alive to see the next bull market. From 4x leverage last October to just 0.54x today, the market has undergone a major deleveraging. Bitcoin has also reached what appears to be its strongest line of defense, while the Nasdaq is starting to look increasingly fragile. Despite continued ETF inflows, the Coinbase (CB) premium has failed to gain meaningful momentum. The signals are mixed, and caution may be more important than ever. 👀📊 #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation Recently, the operations of counterfeit contracts have yielded both gains and losses, with the overall position still in a floating loss. Long-term holdings of $BICO, $BEAT, and $ASTER have brought positive returns, while CORE, KAITO, and TRUMP have underperformed. Today, we have shorted the top performers 0G and ZORA, and the results will be verified tomorrow. Observing the recent strong-performing cryptocurrencies, they are almost all concentrated in the financial and platform sectors. AAVE, UNI, and HYPE have seen significant gains, while OKB and BNB, as platform tokens, also belong to the top tier. Additionally, some security-related tokens have performed well. In contrast, the sectors of blockchain games, storage, and AI have shown clear signs of weakness. If the market experiences a deep correction, the plan is to gradually invest in the aforementioned three strong directions using spot funds. Contract trading rarely has a consistent winner; it is more suitable for small positions to develop a sense of the market. Truly substantial returns still depend on spot positioning. Opening contracts with large amounts of capital requires extremely high technical skills. Unless one has sufficient funds to withstand continuous losses, it is not advisable to attempt this lightly. It is noteworthy that discussions about inflation risks at the macro level have heated up again, and market expectations for interest rate hikes have also risen. This adds a new dimension to the correlation between crypto assets and gold, and introduces more uncertainty into the upcoming market movements. For now, rather than speculating on the direction, it is better to manage your positions and mindset, and let time provide the answers. 💪 Risk Warning: The market is highly volatile. Please view short-term fluctuations rationally and manage your risk effectively. $BTC $ETHFirst, let's break down the authenticity of this video before deciding whether to buy or not. **Both things in the video are true:** 1. **Apple changing CEO is today's news** — On September 1, Cook officially stepped down after 15 years, handing over to hardware head John Ternus (the lead on the M-series chips). Cook transitioned to Executive Chairman of the Board. This was a smooth handover announced back in April, not a sudden negative event. 2. **OpenAI hoarding Macs by the ton is also true** — The Information reported on August 31 that OpenAI bought tens of thousands of Mac mini/Studio units specifically for reinforcement learning training of AI agents. Anthropic rents Macs via AWS for the same purpose. Apple's Mac business revenue last quarter was $10.4 billion, up 29% year-over-year, the fastest growth across all product lines, with popular configurations out of stock for months. This is a rare "new story" for Apple: the unified memory architecture is taking Nvidia's role in AI training niche scenarios, which makes sense. **But a discount should be applied to the video's creator:** Mask Brother was the one who suffered leveraged losses during the tech stock crash in July — rumored to have had a peak unrealized gain of 180 million but didn't exit, ending July with a 67 million loss, relying on membership fees from his community to recover. Now he’s shouting "AI turning point," essentially desperate for tech stocks to rebound. **The facts can be trusted, but the sentiment and conclusions should be filtered.** - Apple indeed meets your "only pick good companies" criteria, and Mac AI demand is genuinely incremental Core Focus: Interest Rate and Risk Appetite Game Before Nonfarm Payrolls｜ETF Turns Positive Again but Funds More Concentrated｜DELL Earnings Tonight, AVGO Earnings Tomorrow｜DeFi Begins to See Capital Rotation｜ Macro and Market: What really matters today is no longer "whether the ETF has returned." On August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day outflow of about $200 million, and on August 31, it recorded a net inflow of about $217 million, with one fund from BlackRock IBIT contributing about $206 million, almost absorbing the majority of the day's increment. The BTC ETF turning positive again is certainly good news, but the fund structure is more worth watching than the numbers themselves: currently, it looks more like leading institutions are supporting the market, and the overall market risk appetite has not yet reopened. Meanwhile, the ETH ETF had a net inflow of about $87.68 million yesterday, marking the 11th consecutive positive trading day; the XRP ETF also recorded a net inflow of about $5.64 million. Institutional allocation in SOL remains, but recent inflow intensity is noticeably lower than in previous days. This is the most interesting aspect of the September start: BTC has pulled from the $60,000 range all the way to near $80,000, with the first push driven by short covering basically completed, and now real spot buying needs to take over. BTC is currently oscillating near $78,000, with $80,000 repeatedly tested but no effective breakout yet. The price has neither sharply dropped nor accelerated further, indicating both bulls and bears are waiting for new catalysts. Whether sustained trading volume can appear above $80,000 will determine if this rally enters a new upward phase or not.Didn't Trump say it? Bitcoin strategic reserve, "never sell." So what happened? The US government recently transferred a batch of bitcoins related to Alameda, directly putting the phrase "never sell" into question. Someone asked: What about the promise not to sell? The official explanation is: to compensate the victims. Okay, that reason sounds quite just. But people in the crypto circle all know, this kind of move is like your partner saying "I'm just looking, not buying," and then you check the bill. Those who understand, understand. How long do you think Trump's "never sell" can hold? $BTCLast night, $CL crude oil returned to $90 due to a supertanker being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Iran each have their own narratives—Iran claims "illegal passage through the strait," while the US military denies any ship hit a mine. Geopolitical conflict flared up again, $BTC fell below $78,000‼️ Oil prices push inflation, inflation drives rate hike expectations. The probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 64%. Following the same logic, spot $XAU gold fell below $4,400. Oil prices rose, but BTC and gold both fell! The Fed might really raise rates. The Strait of Hormuz is not truly blocked; the real pressure comes from rate hike expectations. The non-farm payroll report on Friday will reveal the outcome. #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 Complete Logic of Bitcoin's Price Increase ⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile It can be divided into six major layers: supply side, demand side, macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, chip and leverage, narrative and belief. 1. Supply Side: Scarcity, Four-Year Halving (Fundamental Basis) Total permanent cap of 21 million coins, no additional issuance. Halving occurs every 4 years, cutting miners' daily new Bitcoin output in half, reducing new market selling pressure. - Historical pattern: The market often trades ahead of halving expectations; major tops mostly appear 12-18 months after halving. - Current status: 94% of Bitcoin has been mined, with fewer new coins entering circulation; a large amount of coins remain unmoved long-term (whales hoarding, cold wallets), reducing liquid chips on exchanges, so small amounts of capital can push prices up. 2. Demand Side: Real Buying Pressure, Institutions Are the Biggest Variable This Cycle 1. US Spot ETFs BlackRock and other ETFs provide pensions, family offices, and ordinary Americans a compliant channel to buy BTC; continuous net inflows into ETFs represent ongoing passive buying and are the most important indicator of the mid-term trend. 2. Listed Companies Hoarding Coins (e.g., MicroStrategy) Companies convert part of their cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, continuously buying and directly absorbing circulating market chips. 3. Global Retail and High Net Worth Allocation Treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge fiat overissuance and geopolitical risks. 3. Macro Liquidity (Most Impactful, Primary Short-Term Driver) Bitcoin is a highly elastic risk asset, highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity. 1. Fed rate cut expectations and declining US Treasury yields Lower risk-free interest rates cause funds to flow out of bonds into stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin; when Treasury yields surge, Bitcoin usually comes under pressure. 2. Weakening US dollar makes Bitcoin priced in dollars easier to rise. Simply put: In a loose liquidity environment, Bitcoin is more likely to bull; in tight liquidity, even strong narratives are easily suppressed. 4. Regulatory Policy Expectations - Positive: Clear US crypto legislation, softened SEC stance, ETF approvals, more countries allowing compliant holdings will open space for incremental capital inflows. - Negative: Total bans and strict regulations directly suppress the market. A large part of the bull market is trading on "expectations of improved regulation." 5. Chip Structure + Leverage Short Squeeze (Short-Term Surge Catalyst) 1. Long-term holders on-chain do not move: large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets, not sold, shrinking circulating supply. 2. Derivatives leverage: when price breaks key resistance, accumulated short positions are forcibly liquidated; shorts buying coins to close positions become passive buying, further driving up prices—this is a short squeeze. Many rapid large bullish candles come from leverage liquidations, not all from spot buying. 6. Narrative and Belief: Value Consensus Two core narratives: 1. Inflation resistance, hedge against fiat depreciation: governments can print money, but Bitcoin’s total supply cannot be changed. 2. Decentralized digital value storage, not controlled by any single country. The narrative itself does not directly drive price up but attracts capital willing to allocate, turning the story into real money. Conversely, what can interrupt the rise? 1. Fed rate hikes again, liquidity tightening; US Treasury yields continue rising. 2. ETFs shift from net inflows to sustained large redemptions, institutional funds withdraw. 3. Global economic crisis, all risk assets crash together. 4. Major negative regulatory news. 5. Excessive leverage accumulation followed by concentrated long liquidations and panic selling. Summary in one sentence Halving tightens supply as the foundation; macro liquidity determines the overall environment; ETFs and institutional funds provide incremental buying; regulation opens institutional space; leverage and sentiment amplify price swings. Relying on a single factor leads to misjudgment; only multiple factors resonating together can produce a major bull market.The phase of a broad bull market rally has clearly ended, and the market has officially entered a period of value-based selection. In the past two weeks, the market has been oscillating back and forth, making it easy to be confused about whether the market is bullish or turning bearish. It is necessary to recognize the current situation: the overall broad rally has ended, and the next two months will most likely maintain a range-bound consolidation. The market is digesting previous profits and accumulating momentum for the next round of market movement. The underlying market drivers have shifted, moving away from purely relying on emotional herd speculation to testing the real ability of capital to realize profits. BTC remains the core support of the entire market. On-chain data shows that short-term holders have strong support at their average cost positions. ETH, with its high staking rate and thriving ecosystem, has a much stronger ability to withstand pullbacks than most smaller coins. The gap within the public chain sector is gradually widening, with the developer ecosystem divide between SOL and SUI becoming increasingly apparent. Competition in this sector is returning to a fundamental strength contest, moving away from mindless herd speculation. OKB, as a platform token, can be used as a reference indicator to observe market heat. There is no need to be swayed by single-day price fluctuations; short-term candlesticks mostly reflect volatility caused by leveraged funds' games and cannot define long-term trends. High-quality trading opportunities mostly appear after long-term volume contraction and consolidation, at moments of volume breakout driven by capital inflows. Rather than repeatedly trying to predict price rises and falls and trading frequently, it is more important to settle down and patiently wait. The market rarely favors traders who chase highs and lows frequently but often rewards those with clear thinking and steady rhythm amid noisy and disorderly market conditions. On Monday, Ark Invest spent about $40.8 million simultaneously buying Block (XYZ) and Circle (CRCL), covering three ETFs: ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF. Block's stock price fell 1.85% that day, closing at $82.02: it was a complete contrarian move, not chasing a rally. This is not the first time Ark has done this. Whenever the media writes about their "losses," it is often when they are making large additions. Institutions always have ammunition to pick up when others are fearful; this is a structural advantage. But we should not impulsively follow the crowd. The reason is simple: Block is cutting 40% of its workforce to pivot to AI, revenue exceeded expectations but costs are also soaring, and its stock price is deeply tied to Bitcoin: essentially, it is an alternative product with crypto leverage. Ark's buying looks more like "buying the dip on the left side," not "fundamental improvement." What really caught my eye more is Circle. $CRCL surged 9.65% on Monday, closing at $95.55, quickly rebounding after a 7.5% drop last Friday. It has risen 52.6% over the past month. USDC stablecoin issuer Bernstein just gave an "overweight" rating with a target price of $140, with bullish logic being: increased adoption of stablecoin payments, acceleration of RWA (real-world asset) tokenization, and AI Agent proxy payments becoming a new track. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #US Treasury Secretary Yellen talks with Japan, focus on forex and interest rate hikes What does Yellen mean? Four words: It's time for you to raise rates. This is no longer a hint; it's a direct message to Japan — it's time to turn the page on Abenomics. Japan's reaction is quite interesting. They verbally distance themselves but don't loosen their grip in action. Let's break down the impact of this on the crypto space in two layers. First layer: The yen carry trade is accelerating its collapsStock traders all know how grueling the A-shares market is in August. The index jumps up and down, hotspots rotate daily; last week it was chasing AI computing power, this week it's switching to pharmaceutical safe havens. If you're not careful, you get hit from both sides. I see this kind of "volume-shrinking rotation" torment even more clearly in the crypto world. Take $BTC for example, throughout August it kept fluctuating between 60,000 and 70,000 USD [reference:5][reference:6]. Watching the Nasdaq rise nearly 4% in August [reference:7][reference:8], $BTC remained as still as a dead fish. Until August 19, when Trump mentioned launching a "crypto strategic reserve," $BTC instantly surged from 64,000 to 71,000. It gained a month's worth in three days, then fell back more than half in three days. This kind of play is like those thematic stocks in the A-shares market that survive on short essays. They spike as soon as news arrives, then fade once the good news is exhausted. Stocks can be trapped but you can still fool yourself by saying "long-term investment value," but in crypto, if you lack risk awareness and just hold on with faith, the outcome is often worse than A-shares. Talking about vision in the casino is the most expensive tuition.At 22:00 Beijing time on September 1, the US will simultaneously release the August ISM Manufacturing Index and the July JOLTS Job Openings. Market reference data: ISM Manufacturing Index: previous value 55.6, expected around 55.0 JOLTS Job Openings: previous value 7.359 million, expected around 7.32 million After Walsh's hawkish speech, the market's pricing for a September rate hike rose to about 58%. Therefore, tonight's data could directly change the short-term direction of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and crypto assets. But the market does not want to see worse data. If ISM and JOLTS cool down moderately, rate hike expectations may decline, which would be relatively favorable for $BTC and $ETH; if the data is significantly stronger than expected, yields and the dollar may rise again, suppressing risk assets. Conversely, if employment and manufacturing both deteriorate sharply, the market may shift from "fewer rate hikes" to "recession," which is not necessarily good for the crypto market either. The ideal combination is actually: economic cooling without a crash. After the data release, I won't just watch BTC's price movement in the first minute but will pay more attention to whether the direction holds after 30 minutes and whether US Treasury yields confirm it simultaneously. Do you think the market will trade on "rate hike cooling" or "the economy still overheating" tonight? This rate hike, is the US stock and crypto market doomed? Don't panic, the opportunity is here! The world's most powerful "money printing machine" is about to shut down! Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged past 3%, and this is no small matter. For decades, global investors have been borrowing nearly free yen to buy US stocks, tech stocks, and Bitcoin. Now, this "free lunch" is over. My view is clear: be cautious in the short term, watch the show in the medium term, and expect a huge bull market in the long term. With Japan raising rates, the first to be hit are the overvalued US tech stocks and the highly volatile crypto market. Money will flow back to Japan, and Bitcoin, as a high-risk "global liquidity barometer," is very likely to be panic-sold into a dip like in August 2024. But! If you panic, you lose. This is exactly the touchstone for the "digital gold" narrative. Traditional currencies are being printed more and more recklessly, making Bitcoin's fixed monetary policy even more precious. Every crash caused by macro liquidity is a discounted entry ticket for long-term investors. 最近整个盘面最大的情绪恐慌，全部集中在黄金$XAU 身上。 一周暴跌近7%，从4700高位直接砸到4340附近，日内更是从4452极速跳水，最低触及4336。 所有人现在都在慌：黄金趋势是不是彻底坏了？是不是要开启深度下跌？能不能抄底？ 今天把表层情绪、宏观误区、机构真实动作、技术生死线，一次性讲透。 一、肉眼可见的恐慌：全市场被“加息预期”吓崩 本轮黄金杀跌的直接导火索，就是杰克逊霍尔鹰派发言引爆加息计价。 最新通胀数据顽固偏高，PCE持续走高，市场瞬间应激： 9月加息概率从30%直接暴力拉到60% 美元强势反扑、美债收益率飙升，所有无息资产集体承压，黄金直接被情绪砸盘。 但这里有一个90%散户都会踩的宏观误区： 现在的加息预期，完全是市场情绪化超跌计价，并不是美联储真实落地路径。 目前美国利率3.5%-3.75%、经济增速2%+、失业率稳定。 在经济没有过热、只是通胀黏性的背景下，强行再度加息，等同于主动扼杀经济。 短期鹰派喊话，是口头压通胀； 市场无脑砸盘，是过度恐慌杀跌。 情绪杀出来的深坑，从来都是修复机会，不是趋势反转。 二、最撕裂的盘面：散户疯狂割肉，央行偷偷抄底 这轮下跌Funds are quietly changing seats, and the altcoins have finally found their light. Have you noticed that although the market is clearly shaking recently, some coins are quietly getting stronger? Last weekend, I finished reviewing ETF capital flow data, and honestly, I was a bit surprised. In the last week of August, crypto ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.2 billion, setting a new record since October last year. Among them, BTC spot ETFs attracted $3.03 billion in a single month, which is no small number. The key isn't BTC itself, but the supporting players beside it starting to steal the spotlight. - BTC weekly inflow of $924 million - ETH saw $824 million in weekly inflows, with net inflows for 11 consecutive days without interruption - SOL saw $154 million in weekly inflows, marking its strongest weekly performance this year - XRP saw $110 million in weekly inflows, also a new high since the start of the year ETH, SOL, and XRP all recorded the highest weekly inflows of the year, which is quite rare. BlackRock stuffed $206 million into BTC ETFs and $59.94 million into ETH ETFs in one day—institutions aren't here to check in. The only minor flaw was that on August 28, BTC ETF lost $201 million, interrupting the continuous inflow cycle. But looking at seven days, net inflows still reached $914 million. The outflow in one day is like beer foam—the bottom of the cup is actually full. Funds are spreading out in layers, starting with BTC as a base, then ET$XAU Oh no Gold has dropped so sharply Added more positions again, let's see if the 4300 level can hold, will be cautious with Warsh's speeches in the future 😅 Scarier than old Powell Geopolitical tensions are rising again, crude oil is surging. News is mostly bearish 1. Fed rate hike expectations soar — core bearish factor On August 28, Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole central bank conference, emphasizing the 2% inflation target as a "hard constraint," signaling readiness to act to curb inflation. The interest rate swap market's probability of a Fed rate hike in September jumped from 34% to 65%, and CME FedWatch shows the latest probability has risen to 66%. After Warsh's speech, gold plunged over 3% in a single day last Friday and continued to be under pressure this week. Rising rate hike expectations reduce gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, and higher US Treasury yields further increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. 2. Escalation of US-Iran conflict — a complex variable with mixed bullish and bearish effects For the first time in a month, US and Iran directly clashed; US forces attacked Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan. Trump threatened further strikes on Iran on Monday, and a tanker reportedly was hit by three projectiles while leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical risks have a dual impact on gold: on one hand, boosting safe-haven demand (bullish), on the other, pushing up oil prices, exacerbating inflation concerns, and strengthening rate hike expectations (bearish). Gold opened lower and fluctuated on Monday, indicating these forces offset each other. 3. Rising US Treasury yields and stronger dollar The US 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.75%, the highest since January 2025; the dollar index strengthened on rate hike expectations, creating an unfavorable "strong dollar + high yields" combination, doubly pressuring gold prices. 4. Central bank gold purchases provide medium- to long-term bottom support Despite short-term rate pressures, ongoing central bank gold buying, stable investor allocation demand, and persistent geopolitical safe-haven sentiment limit downside. Speculative funds increased net long gold futures positions for the fourth consecutive week, with net longs at 151,315 contracts as of August 25. OCBC Bank noted that structural supports like central bank gold purchases have not materially changed gold's long-term outlook. The above is my personal trading record and views for reference only; please make your own judgments and take responsibility. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Last night's market really cures all kinds of disbelief. I thought the ZEC $750 pullback had already broken down, and the short position finally reached harvest season. But what happened? The structure was forcibly repaired in a few days, and the selling pressure from the positive news was completely absorbed by ETF funds. Now the unrealized loss is over 330%, and the $890 stop loss is already set; breaking through means admitting defeat. If I hold on at this position, it will really become a bottom short. HYPE is even more painful, less than $3 away from the previous high. With 20x leverage, once it breaks through, the unrealized loss will directly head toward 600%, just thinking about it is a headache. But I also realized that in the early bull market, the kinds of assets that can touch new highs often become the leaders after breaking through. Setting a manual stop loss now is meaningless; better to set an automatic order and admit defeat if it really breaks. The biggest lesson from this round is: don't fantasize about a V-shaped rebound in a strong structure. The top of a bull market is much harder to catch than imagined. Right-side confirmation is always more reliable than left-side top hunting. Personal opinion, not investment advice. Don't FOMO on the rise, don't panic on the fall. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Recently, the prediction market has been getting hotter and hotter. At first, people watched it from a typical crypto perspective: presidential election, guessing games, betting on interest rates, guessing BTC prices. Simply put, it's betting somewhere else. But lately I've been thinking, if you only think of the prediction market as "betting," maybe you're really underestimating it. Because the real interesting part might not be making money at all. It's rather: letting something that hasn't happened yet have a price—stocks, bonds, futures—are all pricing something. The value of a company. Credit and interest rates. The future price of goods. What about the prediction market? It starts pricing something else: Will something actually happen? Will a policy pass? Will someone be elected? Will the Fed cut interest rates next time? Will BTC break through a certain price before a certain time? In the past, when discussing these issues, most of the time it was just one sentence: "I think it will." But now it's different. The market will ask you in return: "If you think it will, how much money are you willing to pay to prove it?" A market trading at 70 cents can roughly be understood as the market giving about a 70% chance of doing so. Of course, this price is definitely not the real probability. There is information, sentiment, liquidity, time cost, and a very real question: who ultimately decides the shots? But at least one thing has changed. Opinions start to have prices. This is also what I think is very different from X. It can exist on XAfter the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged directly from 35% to nearly 60%. The latest CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has reached 65.4%. What about Bitcoin? It sharply dropped from above $81,000 to around $76,000 at one point. Now it is hovering around $79,000. The market has already priced in a "hawkish Fed." Everyone is waiting for Friday's nonfarm payrolls. Here's the question—what if the nonfarm data falls exactly in the "neither good nor bad" range? Will the market's expected "one-sided narrative" be broken? In July, nonfarm employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000. The average employment increase over the past three months is only about 20,000. On the surface, the job market looks weak. But looking closely: the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, a 13-month low. However—this improvement is related to the labor force participation rate dropping to 61.4%. The unemployment rate decline is not entirely due to stronger employment demand. Some people have simply exited the labor market. The job market is not collapsing entirely. It has structural issues. What are the market expectations for August nonfarm? Reuters survey expects an increase of 58,000. Deutsche Bank expects 65,000. Wells Fargo expects 80,000. NBC expects 80,000. From -23,000 to +58,000, the market expects a "violent rebound." The unemployment rate expectation remains at 4.1%. This is very interesting—the market has already priced in "weak nonfarm → noGeopolitical black swan events continue to ferment, oil prices soar, BTC faces a two-way choice Explosive news! The Strait of Hormuz is closed! Crude oil supply is choked, BTC faces a two-way life-and-death struggle 🔥 Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister directly shatters market navigation fantasies: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and ships wishing to pass must obtain approval from Iran. Although Iran and Oman have discussed a temporary navigation route plan, it has not been implemented yet. Even if ships can leave the strait, under US sanctions and blockade, selling oil, insurance, and payment collection are all obstructed, which does not equal a true resumption of oil exports. On the other hand, the US is intensifying maritime blockade and financial oil sanctions against Iran while accelerating efforts to court Venezuelan oil resources. However, Venezuela's oil field infrastructure is outdated and lacks funds for renovation, so it cannot make up for the crude oil supply gap caused by the strait blockage in the short term. Brent crude rose 6.4% weekly, WTI crude surged 5.7%, and geopolitical risk premiums have directly pushed oil prices to high levels. With oil prices remaining high, inflation risks persist, indirectly reinforcing the Federal Reserve's high interest rate expectations, overall suppressing global risk assets. 👉BTC is caught in a contradictory market, with two forces fiercely pulling. 🔻Bearish side: Energy pushes inflation, raising rate hike expectations, putting valuation pressure on interest-free crypto assets. 🔺Bullish side: Ongoing geopolitical conflicts erode fiat currency credit, reigniting Bitcoin's "non-sovereign asset" narrative. $77,000 becomes a critical watershed. The future direction depends on which the market prioritizes: inflation and rate hike pressure, or the safe-haven narrative brought by geopolitics. #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 OKX is ranked 67th, why is ATS ranked 1st? If you only look at the profit leaderboard, Feng Yu Tongzhou Coin Sister is ranked 67th today. But among the 100 publicly tracked Lead Traders I continuously follow, she entered the ATS official Top 20 for the first time and ranked 1st on the official list with a score of 89.26: FORMAL / HIGH. This is not a story about "highest profit." As of this snapshot: • 90-day cumulative profit: +6.02% • 90-day maximum drawdown: 11.05% (90 valid observations) • Public lead trading duration: 551 days ATS does not only consider how much was earned in a certain period, but also looks at drawdown, profit quality, account longevity, and public behavior trajectory. Being ranked 67th but 1st in ATS does not necessarily mean she is better; it just reminds me that the profit leaderboard and the risk-adjusted research leaderboard are never looking at the same thing. Data as of: 2026-09-01 20:03 (UTC+8) Based solely on OKX public data, for research purposes only, not investment advice. Market Brief: ZEC Privacy Coin Narrative Market Analysis Market Overview ZEC continued its strong momentum in September, having grown into the core asset of the privacy coin sector. After breaking out on August 22, it reached a high of $860, marking an 8-year peak. Grayscale's Zcash ETF launched on the NYSE, allowing traditional US stock accounts to directly invest in ZEC, bringing new capital narratives. XMR in the same sector has also attracted capital attention. BTC is suppressed by interest rates and macro data, but ZEC's independent narrative is still developing. After multiple rounds of consolidation around 800, as long as the breakout structure is not broken, the bullish logic remains valid. Short-term resistance lies at the previous highs of 870-890; once surpassed, the market will target the $1000 level, with a longer-term target of 1100. Market Logic The ETF listing opened institutional capital inflows, serving as the most important catalyst for this ZEC rally, creating a sector trend independent of the broader market. In narrative-driven markets, structural integrity takes precedence over daily price fluctuations; as long as key supports hold, consolidations only clear floating positions. However, privacy coins remain a niche sector, and the market highly depends on the continuation of the story; if the broader market weakens systemically, the independent rally will also be dragged down. The previous highs at 870-890 represent the first major test; a volume-backed hold above this level will truly open up upside potential. Trading Insights When trading narrative-driven markets, distinguish between structural breakdowns and normal consolidations; do not get shaken out by daily volatility. At the same time, do not ignore broader market risks; BTC's macro pressures objectively exist, and independent assets are unlikely to be completely immune to market pullbacks In the entire crypto industry, the most profitable money printing machine has never been exchanges, but the stablecoin giants at the top. According to Tether's latest disclosed reserve audit report: its total assets have reached $187.7 billion, with excess reserve funds exceeding $4 billion. Even more astonishing, Tether not only fully benefits from the risk-free high interest on hundreds of billions of U.S. Treasury bonds, but also aggressively bought over 146 tons of physical gold and tens of thousands of bitcoins, turning its stablecoin into the most hardcore central bank-level balance sheet. At the same time, on the other side, the on-chain synthetic dollar ecosystem has also received massive capital injection: Top market maker FalconX has officially injected $1 billion in excess collateral loan credit for Ethena (USDe); Meanwhile, crypto trendsetter Arthur Hayes frequently publishes supportive articles, bluntly stating that as the global dollar liquidity cycle shifts, basis arbitrage will cause USDe's synthetic yield to explode again. On one side, Tether builds a monopoly moat relying on traditional U.S. Treasury interest and gold reserves; on the other, Ethena devours institutional arbitrage funds through on-chain derivatives basis. This covert battle between traditional stablecoins and algorithmic synthetic dollars is continuously supplying new ammunition for the entire bull market. Understanding the migration of stablecoin funds is to understand the underlying liquidity engine of the market.
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