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Will Bitcoin definitely break $1 million by 2033? Take a close look at this optimistic institutional projection
Bernstein's research report presents an optimistic scenario: Bitcoin is expected to challenge $1 million by 2033. Many people interpret this directly as a "certainty," but this is not a conclusion—it's a projection based on a set of stringent assumptions.
The bullish underlying logic: a total supply cap of 21 million coins, halving every four years continuously compressing new supply; spot ETFs continuously bringing in incremental institutional funds; a global high-debt environment where capital allocates Bitcoin as digital gold to hedge against fiat currency depreciation.
However, to achieve the million-dollar target, multiple conditions must be met simultaneously: globally friendly regulation, the Federal Reserve maintaining long-term easing, continuous inflow of institutional funds, and no systemic financial crisis. If any link breaks, the target cannot be realized.
The original report uses the term "possible," not "certain." Do not treat the optimistic scenario as a definite prophecy. The market also has extremely bearish views, and once liquidity tightens, there could be significant drawdowns. Long-term forecasts should only be used as a reference for ideas; avoid heavy speculative bets.SanDisk's drop is not about storage demand, but about expectations
$SNDK has been falling steadily from its highs.
The bulls are still chanting NAND demand.
What the bulls think:
The positive impact of AI storage has already been priced in.
Demand still exists, so the dip should be bought.
Looking from another angle:
The stock price reflects not demand itself, but how much stronger demand is than expected.
Chinese manufacturers are chasing, and as competition tightens, this premium disappears.
CPI is at 3.7%, and interest rates are suppressing valuations.
High expectations combined with valuation contraction mean the correction is not over.
The 1250 to 1200 range is where the bears are focused.
Stop losses placed above have already been triggered once.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#$SNDK CPI hasn't cooled down, and PPI has exploded again: originally, we hoped PPI would help cool inflation, but after the data came out, it only added fuel to the fire.
The US September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.6%, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Year-over-year, it rose 6.3%. This report poses a tough challenge for those expecting policy easing.
Who mainly drove the increase this time?
Energy prices rose 10.8% month-over-month, with gasoline up 20.3%. But the pressure isn't just from energy: service prices rose 0.8%, and excluding food, energy, and trade services, PPI still increased by 0.5%. This indicates that price hikes have spread across multiple sectors.
Looking at the CPI from the previous day:
September year-over-year rose 3.7%, core CPI year-over-year rose 2.6%, both accelerating compared to August. Consumers are paying more, and production prices are also rising, adding more resistance to cooling inflation.
This PPI adds pressure to the short-term funding environment. For the crypto market, with inflation stubbornly high, the Federal Reserve will find it harder to ease. Expecting rate cuts to bring incremental funds requires more patience. Although BTC has a long-term scarcity narrative, in the short term it still cannot avoid the influence of US dollar interest rates and institutional capital choices. ETH is similarly affected by high interest rates. The willingness of funds to enter DeFi, participate in on-chain lending, and leverage may also be suppressed.
Of course, a single PPI report cannot directly determine rate hikes; we still need to watch PCE and employment data. But relying solely on this data to urge the Fed to ease is indeed less justified. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 利好还是利空？Standard Chartered 100K vs ARK 1.5M: Who is "painting a pie" for Bitcoin, and who is doing the detailed accounting?
Standard Chartered sets a $100,000 target by the end of 2026, leaning towards a realistic cyclical calculation, more like "doing the detailed accounting." The model focuses on tracking ETF capital inflows, the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace, and corporate Bitcoin purchases, while also providing a downside scenario forecast. If the market underperforms expectations, it will proactively lower the target price, representing the baseline scenario simulation for this cycle.
ARK's Cathie Wood offers an optimistic scenario with a long-term target of $1.5 million, leaning more towards a grand narrative projection. It assumes Bitcoin will capture a large share of the gold market and that sovereign funds from various countries will allocate massively. This is a long-term ideal script requiring multiple super-positive factors to all come true.
The essence of the two is not a matter of right or wrong but completely different assumptions. Standard Chartered's forecast anchors on short-term observable capital indicators; ARK's million-level target is based on a long-term conjecture of monetary system transformation.
When reading research reports, avoid focusing only on eye-catching numbers. Short-term targets still have data support, while the million-dollar outlook is a low-probability optimistic assumption and should not be used as a basis for trading. Crypto asset volatility risk is extremely high. Core's core narrative: BTCFi (Bitcoin DeFi) track, unique Satoshi Plus consensus, using Bitcoin hash power + PoS together to secure the network, focusing on letting idle BTC be staked to earn yield, with a token CORE capped at 2.1 billion (compared to BTC's 21 million). ✅ Bullish logic (advantages) 1. Scarce track narrative BTCFi has been one of the main themes in the crypto space in recent years, attracting many Bitcoin miners and BTC whales interested in this direction; its dual staking mechanism: staking CORE can earn higher BTC staking yields, theoretically generating continuous demand for CORE. The official 2026 roadmap focuses on ecosystem revenue buying back CORE, no longer relying solely on inflation burning, attempting to build a revenue-supported token model. 2. EVM compatible, low entry barrier Ethereum developers can directly deploy contracts, with the ecosystem focused on BTC lending, BTC liquid staking, RWA, payments (SatPay), positioning itself as Bitcoin's smart contract chain. 3. Miner community foundation Early on, it attracted many BTC miners to participate in consensus, a differentiation other BTCFi projects (Babylon, Stacks) lack; many custodians and institutional service providers have joined to offer BTC staking solutions. ⚠️ Very significant risks (also the biggest constraints on prospects, the points you were concerned about before) 1. Controversy over decentralization of validator nodes + official node exit incident Previously there was an official#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The streaming user growth dividend is gradually peaking, and Netflix's pure subscription growth model has entered a bottleneck period. The global new member growth rate has significantly slowed, and the space to boost revenue solely by raising prices is increasingly limited. The ad tier has become Netflix's most critical second growth curve at present.
The low-priced ad-supported tier can attract new users with limited budgets who were originally unwilling to pay; now, many new registrants in various regions prioritize the ad tier. On the other hand, without significantly increasing content costs, it achieves dual monetization of the same user base through "subscription + ads," increasing revenue per user. The ad business growth is impressive, but its shortcomings are also evident: currently, ad revenue still accounts for a relatively low proportion of total revenue, making it difficult in the short term to fully compensate for the sluggish subscription growth.
The core focus of upcoming earnings reports is not slight fluctuations in total revenue but the scale of ad-supported members, ad fill rates, and ad pricing. Whether the ad business can meet expectations will determine the market's long-term valuation judgment of Netflix. If ad monetization falls short of expectations, even if EPS slightly meets targets, the stock price is likely to face pressure; conversely, strong ad data will lead the market to re-recognize its growth logic. Overall, the ad business is Netflix's hope to break through, but it is still in the validation stage. In the short term, it can only improve profits and is unlikely to bring explosive growth. ETH does not have a unified “whale standard”; thresholds vary across different platforms, and it is distinguished from BTC (≥1000 BTC) criteria: The two most commonly used classifications in the community (Santiment / Glassnode) 1. Super Whales: ≥100,000 ETH Very few addresses, ranging from several dozen to over sixty. ⚠️ The majority here are: Beacon Chain staking contracts, exchange custody wallets, ETF custody addresses; genuine individual whales are very rare. 2. Standard Whales: ≥10,000 ETH (the tier most closely watched) Approximately 800 to 1100 addresses; this tier represents the whales commonly referred to who actively trade and influence the market, including funds, large holders, and institutional self-custody wallets. 3. Large Holders/Sharks: ≥1,000 ETH This tier has many more addresses, numbering in the thousands, including many mid-sized funds, staking service providers, and DeFi treasuries. The most important misconception (same as BTC) Address ≠ real independent person - Beacon Chain deposit contracts, Lido, Coinbase staking pools, and major exchange cold wallets are all counted as whale addresses; - One whale can split assets into dozens of wallets; one wallet can hold tens of thousands of retail investors’ funds (custody). Therefore, on-chain data can only count wallet addresses and cannot accurately determine how many real independent “people” are whales. A simple comparison with the BTC you just asked about - BTC whale standard: ≥1000 BTC,CORE is a small-cap altcoin without an industry-standard whale threshold (unlike BTC fixed at ≥1000 BTC, ETH commonly at ≥10000 ETH). Generally, within the community, two common thresholds are used to track CORE whales (Nansen / Lookonchain): 1. CORE whales (capable of impacting the market): ≥1,000,000 CORE 2. Large holders/sharks: 100,000–1,000,000 CORE Core characteristics (the biggest difference from BTC and ETH): 1. Extremely high concentration of holdings Top wallets include: Core DAO treasury, team/investor lockup contracts, staking contracts, exchange cold wallets. The top 10 addresses hold a very high proportion of circulating supply, which is the fundamental reason why CORE’s volatility is much greater than BTC/ETH. 2. No fixed official number - The ≥1,000,000 CORE tier: the real-time number of addresses is usually in the dozens (dynamic, changes with unlocking, staking, transfers) - The ≥100,000 CORE (large holders): a few hundred addresses Many addresses are staking contracts, foundation treasury, exchange reserves, not individual large holders. The number of independent whales who can freely sell and actively trade is much fewer than the number of addresses. 3. Data pain point: On-chain statistics for CORE are not as mature as BTC or ETH. Santiment and Glassnode do not provide stable whale-specific statistics like they do for Bitcoin and Ethereum; data can only be found on Core ScanThe same Bitcoin, three destinies: Conservatives, Cyclicals, and the Million-Dollar Narrative
Facing Bitcoin, the market splits into three distinctly different judgments, corresponding to three market scenarios.
Conservatives: Do not believe in a long-term super bull market, viewing Bitcoin merely as a high-volatility risk asset. They are optimistic about short-term ETF-driven valuation recovery but see limited upside. Once liquidity tightens, a sharp correction is expected, so be prepared for a deep pullback.
Cyclicals: Believe in the four-year halving supply-demand cycle. They think the halving reduces new supply, combined with institutional inflows, will produce a standard bull and bear cycle. This bull market peak could reach two to three hundred thousand dollars, but after the bull market ends, a bear market decline will follow. They aim to profit from cycles without fantasizing about perpetual long-term bulls.
Million-Dollar Narrative: Treat Bitcoin as digital gold. They bet on long-term fiat depreciation and central bank allocations worldwide, with a long-term target of one million dollars. This vision relies on many idealized assumptions and carries the highest uncertainty.
None of the three views is absolutely right or wrong; they simply presuppose different macro conditions. Do not blindly trust any single narrative to heavily invest; distinguish between realistic logic and optimistic long-term assumptions. Dogecoin (DOGE) Whale (Whale) Classification Criteria (Market General Standard) - 🐬 Dolphin: 1 million~10 million DOGE - 🦈 Shark: 10 million~100 million DOGE - 🐳 Whale: ≥ 100 million DOGE (can clearly drive market trends) - 🦑 Super Whale: ≥ 1 billion DOGE (institutional/exchange level) Quantity and Token Situation According to Santiment: There are about 140 wallets holding 100 million DOGE ≥, and these addresses collectively hold over 108 billion DOGE, with token concentration far higher than BTC and ETH. Key pitfall: The top spot on the rich list isn't a big player, but Robinhood's custodial cold wallet (about 27.2 billion DOGE, about 17.5% of circulating supply), which contains hundreds of thousands of retail investors' tokens, not just one person's; Second place is Upbit, third is Binance, both are exchange custody wallets, which are user asset custodians, not private whales. The legendary super address that once held nearly 30% DOGE was split at the end of 2021 and is no longer a single whale. Features (compared to BTC/ETH whales) 1. DOGE is a meme coin with thinner liquidity. A truly private whale makes a large transfer or dumping the market, causing much more volatility than BTC or ETH, which easily triggers crash sentiment and triggers chain liquidations. 2. Highly concentrated chips: the top 10 addresses together account for the circulating marketMainstream on-chain analysis (Santiment) defines addresses holding ≥1,000 BTC as BTC whales - latest statistics: 2,044 addresses ≥ 1,000 BTC, holding about 7.17 million BTC in total, accounting for nearly 36% of circulating supply. However! Addresses ≠ Genuine and independent individuals/institutions, which is the easiest pitfall: Includes cold exchange wallets, ETF custody addresses, platform reserve wallets, not all large individual users. For example, an exchange may have several such whale addresses, which actually belong to the same institution. More detailed layering (another sub-caliber) - Sharks: 1,000–5,000 BTC - Whales: 5,000–10,000 BTC (narrow sense) ≈ over 100 addresses - Humpback whales (super whales): > 10,000 BTC, fewer than 100 addresses. This includes MicroStrategy, the US government, early tycoons, and large custodians. Two key misconceptions: 1. It's impossible to know the real "number of whales": one person can control dozens of wallets; A single wallet could also be the money of many users (exchanges), and on-chain you can only count addresses, making it hard to distinguish the entities behind them. 2. Different platforms have different entry barriers: Some media outlets are a bit more lenient, calling ≥100 BTC 'big holder,' and the number of addresses increases to nearly 20,000, so they shouldn't be confused. In short, summarize by the most commonly used in the circle: 1One-sentence summary: In the BTCFi and native Bitcoin staking sector, this project is "highly recognized by institutions, has strong technical reputation, but faces significant controversy among retail investors regarding the BABY token." It is a typical infrastructure project, not a speculative meme coin. ✅Positive reputation (institutions, BTC OGs, mainstream technical community views) 1. High recognition of technical approach Biggest plus: BTC does not require cross-chain bridges or wrapping into WBTC; it remains staked on Bitcoin L1 Taproot script, eliminating cross-chain bridge risks. The design shifts penalty risks to the FP (finality provider), so ordinary stakers' BTC is unlikely to be penalized. This design is widely accepted by Bitcoin native advocates. Aave's founder publicly endorsed its TBV (trustless Bitcoin vault) solution, considering it an important breakthrough in BTC DeFi; top-tier investors like Paradigm, a16z, and Polychain continue to invest, licensed custodians such as Anchorage, Hex Trust, and Kraken have integrated it, and the institutional community regards it as the leading infrastructure for BTC re-staking. 2. Reliable team, transparent disclosure, stable roadmap The founder has a cryptography background and prioritizes research papers before token issuance; regular AMAs and quarterly reports are held, audit reports are public, with minimal unrealistic promises or frequent rule changes and arbitrary token inflation. The project holds a solid first-mover position in the sector, being the largest by TVL in native BTC staking, with liquid staking projects like Lombard also relying on it How many times do institutions predict Bitcoin will rise? Short-term looks at ETFs, mid-term looks at cycles, long-term looks at faith
Various institutions have huge differences in their Bitcoin price increase predictions, which can be broken down into three layers of logic: short, mid, and long term.
The core of the short-term market is the inflow of ETF funds. If institutions continue to subscribe, buying supports the price, and institutions generally expect a 1.5 to 2 times recovery rally; once funds flow out, the market is prone to volatile corrections.
The mid-term relies on the four-year halving cycle. Supply contraction combined with macro liquidity easing is the core driver of the bull market's main rise. Institutions like Bernstein give a 3 to 5 times bull market expectation. But the cycle is only a historical statistical pattern; Federal Reserve rate hikes and regulatory tightening can disrupt the bull market rhythm.
Long-term predictions are the most exaggerated; some institutions give dozens of times growth potential. This layer is more about the faith narrative: betting on Bitcoin becoming digital gold and gaining sovereign fund allocation. These long-term assumptions are extremely stringent and have the highest uncertainty.
Institutional multiple predictions are only scenario simulations, not certain outcomes. Short-term looks at funds, mid-term looks at supply and demand cycles, and long-term narratives can only be used as references, not as buying bases. Avoid heavy positions for speculation.
Supporting commentary brief:
ETFs are the current fund drivers, halving is the mid-term supply logic, and the so-called long-term faith is an ideal scenario that can only be realized if all assumptions are perfectly met.Netflix's layoff of 1,000 employees, accounting for 6%, appears to be a routine cost-cutting and efficiency-improving move, but analyzing the cut departments and financial report data reveals that the underlying business logic of streaming media has completely shifted.
The heaviest cuts were in product, technology, legal, and HR. The signal is clear: the phase of maintaining rapid expansion through technological iteration and team expansion is over. The so-called "resource allocation discipline" in the internal memo means: the platform has hit the attention ceiling, shifting from telling a growth story to extracting value from existing users (ARPU) in a zero-sum game.
Revenue growth slowed from 16.2% in Q2 to 13.4%, with Q3 guidance dropping to 11.7%. Previous user growth mostly came from cracking down on account sharing and aggressively pushing low-priced ad-supported versions. The diminishing marginal effect of operations and declining user watch time are the most sensitive hidden risks for the capital market.
The real competition comes from the shift in attention ecosystems. YouTube and TikTok consume fragmented time without high production costs. Netflix’s heavy-asset model must bet big on the next "Squid Game"; once a hit gap occurs, retention and advertising value will sharply depreciate.
New businesses like sports live streaming, gaming, and advertising have not yet supported a second growth curve but have instead increased costs. The nearly 25% stock price decline this year has already cast a vote. The upcoming financial report will focus on whether the market can see the sustainability of hits and the hard financials of new business monetization.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The US dollar retreats and US Treasury yields fall, yet crypto assets remain weak. This divergence is not mysterious: the market is still digesting the aftereffects of inflation data.
First, the weakening dollar only means external pressure has eased; it does not signal that the inflation alarm has been lifted. Price stickiness remains, and even if interest rate expectations cool down, it is not yet the stage for funds to fully increase positions in risk assets.
Second, the decline in US Treasury yields does not necessarily indicate a rebound in risk appetite. If funds shift to treasuries for safety due to recurring inflation concerns and AI corporate debt worries, the yield drop actually reflects ongoing defensive sentiment. As a highly volatile asset, crypto cannot immediately benefit.
Current assessment:
$BTC: Watch if the 80,000 level can hold and attempt to reclaim 82,000; recovery depends on continuity, not a single surge.
$ETH: Weaker than BTC; it needs to strengthen proactively after the broader market stops falling to prove buying interest is returning.
$SOL: The Alpenglow upgrade on October 21 is a highlight; whether it can outperform the market will be a test of capital preference.
The dollar's decline is only an easing of external factors. For crypto to truly stabilize, it still depends on continuous inflows of new funds. I remain cautious and will first observe who is substantively supporting the market. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 From 1.6x to 25x! Breaking Down Wall Street's "Three-Stage Jump" Price Targets for Bitcoin
Wall Street institutions have divided Bitcoin's price targets into three scenarios, expecting a range from short-term recovery to extremely optimistic long-term outlooks, with huge multiples differences.
Level 1 (Base scenario, about 1.6x): Short-term targets from Standard Chartered and Citibank, assuming steady ETF inflows and moderately declining interest rates, with price surging to $100,000~$113,000, representing a valuation recovery rally.
Level 2 (Optimistic scenario, about 3~4x): Cycle bull market targets from Bernstein and Tom Lee, with halving effects combined with continuous institutional allocation, pushing prices to $200,000~$300,000, reflecting a neutral optimistic expectation for this bull market.
Level 3 (Extreme long-term outlook, up to 25x): Long-term projections from institutions like ARK, assuming Bitcoin successfully establishes itself as digital gold and attracts global sovereign fund allocations, with a long-term target directly aiming at one million dollars.
The three levels are based on completely different assumptions. Level 1 requires only slight liquidity easing; Level 2 depends on continuous incremental ETF inflows; Level 3 bets on long-term depreciation of the global monetary system.
Institutional price targets are not guaranteed predictions; each level comes with strict prerequisites. If the Federal Reserve policy shifts or regulations tighten, the high multiple long-term outlook will become invalid. Do not simply bet heavily based on these targets.
Supporting commentary:
The essence of the three-stage jump is three sets of assumptions. 1.6x reflects liquidity recovery; 3-4x reflects continuous institutional capital inflows; 25x and the million-dollar target represent idealized long-term projections. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Visitor traffic does not equal buying demand
User influx is often misinterpreted as token demand. But "usage" and "holding" are two different things.
Take $DOGE as an example: more people paying makes the chain look busy; but if merchants convert it back to fiat upon receipt, buying quickly turns into selling. Coupled with an annual supply increase of about 5 billion coins, long-term retention willingness is the key. After the hype fades, how many are willing to keep their balances? Being spendable is utility, willingness to hold is demand.
$WLD also needs to be broken down. Completing World ID verification solves identity issues, but does not mean users want to buy WLD. After verification, are there ongoing, necessary scenarios to consume it? If the answer is unclear, the number of verifications is just network data, not buying demand.
$RENDER is more straightforward: payments correspond to token burns, but the network also issues rewards. Looking only at burn volume is misleading. The real question is whether customers will pay repeatedly and if orders can be sustained. A one-time large order can beautify data, but continuous repurchases prove the business is stable.
Therefore, visitors are just the starting point. Payments, verification, and usage do not automatically equal buying. The true value signal is that people are willing to stay, use repeatedly, and continue paying for it.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 1. Market Review On the evening of October 15 Beijing time, the US September PPI year-on-year was 6.3%, significantly higher than the expected 5.3%. At the moment the data was released, the crypto market immediately experienced a rapid plunge. BTC briefly tested a key support level, causing a large number of short-term long positions to stop loss and exit, and panic sentiment quickly intensified in the market. However, the panic selling did not persist. After the concentrated release of short positions, the coin price gradually stopped falling and stabilized, then began a rebound recovery, showing a typical "bad news priced in, rebound after the drop" pattern. 2. Why did the data, despite being negative, lead to a rebound? 1. Expectations were priced in advance; once realized, the negative impact was fully absorbed After the previous CPI exceeded expectations, the market had already anticipated an inflation rebound, and many funds had preemptively reduced positions and set up short orders. When the PPI was officially announced, short-term shorts concentrated on dumping, representing the last panic release; once the negative news was fully realized, shorts chose to take profits and close positions, directly driving the price rebound. 2. The selling pressure mainly came from leveraged funds; spot holdings did not flee on a large scale This round of decline was mainly triggered by stop losses of short-term leveraged funds in the contract market, constituting a short-term market stampede; long-term spot holders did not panic sell massively, and the key support level held strongly, supporting the coin price to stabilize and rise. 3. The market reinterprets the inflation structure A detailed breakdown of PPI components shows that this inflation rise was mainly driven by energy and diesel prices, which is a supply-side disturbance rather than broad inflation caused by an overheated economy. Some funds believe that this oil price-driven inflation may not necessarily force the Federal Reserve to immediately restart rate hikes, and the marketPPI night raid, is the bear script still on?
CPI just passed, and PPI exploded again. ETH slowly climbed back above 2400 from 2315 in the afternoon. I was originally watching 2400-2450, waiting for it to stop rising before adding a second short position. But when the data came out at 20:30, this momentum had to be pushed back. (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
PPI annual rate 6.3%, expected 5.3%, a five-month high; monthly rate 1.3%, expected 0.5%, more than doubled; retail 0.8%, also exceeding expectations. Yesterday CPI, today PPI, consecutive explosions. PPI is upstream, even worse than CPI, cost pressure continues to pass downstream, don't expect inflation to turn around in the short term; retail is strong again, the economy is not weak, and the Federal Reserve has even less reason to be lenient. This is also the underlying logic behind my bearish view.
BTC is hanging around the 81000 and 80000 levels, ETH just bounced back to 2400 in the afternoon, but once the data hits, the rebound is very likely to give bears some entry points. 185,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, $980 million, 90% are long positions. (;´Д`)
Not chasing now, just waiting for 2400-2450 to stop rising, then queue up for the second short. ┑(￣Д ￣)┍
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$BTC $ETH PPI exploded even more than CPI, and the 80000 level endured the toughest test. Last night, September's PPI year-on-year was 6.3%, while the expectation was only 5.3%. Core PPI at 5% also far exceeded expectations, marking the fastest increase in over four years. After the data release, BTC plunged through 80000 in a sharp move, hitting a low near 79600, ETH dropped to a low of 2317, and SOL pierced 101. But note, after the drop, all were fully recovered. This morning, BTC returned to 82000, ETH to 2450, and SOL to 105. The three major US stock indexes also closed higher collectively. This sharp move carries significant weight. The first dip was at 80400, the next two at 81000, and this time it directly pierced the 80000 integer level before quickly pulling back, indicating real large orders are supporting below the integer level. Short sellers were trapped for the fourth time. Four attempts to break the bottom failed, confirming the bottom area repeatedly. However, we must also acknowledge increasing macro pressure, with inflation exceeding expectations for two consecutive days and the probability of a rate hike in October continuing to rise. The rebound will not be smooth. Next, watch 83500, which has shifted from support to resistance. Only a strong volume breakout above this level will regain control; until then, treat the range as a wide oscillation between 80000 and 83500. In terms of operations, those who confirmed support below 80000 last night according to discipline already have floating profits today. Those who missed it should not chase now; there will be further pullbacks. Hold spot positions steadily; the third tier at 78000 can still be kept as protection against black swan events, though the probability is decreasing. Two consecutive nights of data shocks were absorbed by the market, and the bulls' resilience deserves recognition.$ZEC surged above $800, causing a batch of short sellers to be liquidated directly — behind this short squeeze lies a structural problem hidden for a decade under the "King of Privacy" halo. In 2016, $ZEC debuted as a "Bitcoin privacy upgrade," with zk-SNARKs and Shielded transactions sounding like the next generation of monetary infrastructure. But ten years later, only 29% of $ZEC truly hides in the privacy pool; over 70% still flows transparently on-chain, essentially no different from $BTC's public ledger. Privacy is an "optional feature," meaning it has never been a must-have; the narrative cannot support the valuation and can only survive on intermittent hype. What is even more concerning is the trust aspect. In May 2026, the Orchard privacy pool was exposed to a vulnerability that could mint coins out of thin air, theoretically allowing unlimited forgery with almost no trace, lurking for nearly four years before being patched by an emergency hard fork. The official statement said "no evidence of exploitation" — but the privacy feature means this claim can never be verified. This is the deepest paradox of privacy coins: they protect users but also protect bad actors, and even the project team cannot prove their innocence. Governance has also been a long drama. The core development team of Electric Coin Company collectively resigned after fierce clashes with the board; the 20% founder reward has been controversial since day one, miners complain about fees, and the community questions the lack of transparency in funds. On one hand, they shout decentralization; on the other, internal disputes are so intense they embarrass outsiders. Putting these three lines together: privacy adoption is less than 30%, an📉 CPI data exploded, I continue to be bearish on BTC/ETH/SOL
Last night, the US September CPI data was released: year-on-year 3.7%, core 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. Inflation rebounds, rate hike clouds rise again, adding another layer of pressure to the crypto rebound. 🫠
My current short-term judgment — bearish bias.
🔹 $BTC: Strive spent 235 million to buy 2,822 coins, institutions are buying. But spot net outflow is 331 million, contract net outflow is 659 million, selling pressure is fiercer. The positive factors can't hold back the selling pressure, be cautious about the rebound.
🔹 $ETH: Contract net inflow of 123 million in nearly 4 hours, showing some recovery. But spot net outflow is 421 million, ETF inflows and outflows fluctuate repeatedly. Spot not following, the rebound is false.
🔹 $SOL: Spot net inflow of 9.84 million, there is support. Alpenglow mainnet goes live on the 21st, narrative is there. But contract net outflow is 7.73 million, no chasing the rise for now, watch if buying can sustain.
Core logic: macro pressure + BTC/ETH spot selling pressure not relieved. Short-term remains bearish.
Of course, if buying strength continues to improve, I will adjust in time, not stubbornly holding. The market is always right, flexible response is the way to survive. 🧠#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Analysts haven’t been this bullish on Bitcoin since August 2025.
• 84% of 164 analysts are now bullish, up from 37% in July.
• That’s more than at the same stage of the 2023 bull market, after half the price gain.
• It’s a genuine shift: 47 tracked analysts flipped from bear to bull, and only 5 went the other way.
• Macro desks moved first, going from 6% to 94% bullish. On-chain analysts, the largest group, are now 79% bullish.The $1.2B fine is like a surgical scalpel, directly cutting open the chest cavity of Bank of America’s third quarter — revenue of $29.96 billion, up 3.2% year-over-year, yet still missing expectations. This is not a simple superficial wound; it’s an atherosclerotic plaque rupture on the compliance aorta, causing embolism. Earnings per share were pushed down from $1.08 to $0.91 by the fine, and even the adjusted figure barely scraped by. On October 14, the stock price dropped 4.8%, a market’s instinctive reaction to the bleeding speed. The U.S. Treasury confirmed anti-money laundering and sanctions fines exceeding $1.21 billion, clearly identifying the lesion: not a profitability failure, but an acute flare-up of chronic inflammation in the compliance circulatory system.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s wealth management revenue hit a record high, with net new assets of $232 billion, more than half related to IPOs; Goldman Sachs’ trading income is also intensifying this divergence. What does this look like? Like two patients on the same operating table: one bleeding, the other compensatory tachycardia. Capital is being redistributed coronary blood flow, from the regulatory pressure-laden financial sector to the trading and underwriting-driven vascular pathways.
The core question now is: can IPO and trading income sustain this high perfusion? How will compliance costs, credit quality, and high interest rates affect profits and valuations? As a cardiac surgeon, I must point out: trading income is adrenaline, able to raise blood pressure short-term but cannot repair structural valvular disease. The IPO pipeline is preload, relying on market sentiment and liquidity rather than corporate fundamentals. Credit quality is myocardial contractility — high interest rates are causing ischemic changes in some borrowers. Compliance costs are ongoing anticoagulation therapy; too much causes bleeding, too little causes thrombosis, but neither can restore the heart to its 25-year-old state.
$xLLY, as a US stock token, has a linkage logic: when the traditional financial coronary arteries spasm, funds seek collateral circulation. Tokenized assets are precisely that collateral vessel. But note, collateral blood flow is never sufficient to fully replace the original coronary supply. If the compliance lesions in the financial sector continue to expand, the entire market’s blood pressure will be affected. Now is not the time to focus on EPS decimal points, but to monitor vital signs: net interest margin is heart rate, credit loss provisions are blood pressure, regulatory fines are blood oxygen saturation. Any one falling below critical values requires urgent intervention, not emotional consolation.
The significance of BofA’s fine is not the amount itself, but that it exposes large financial institutions’ loopholes in anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance — these loopholes are like endocarditis vegetations, liable to detach and cause distal embolism at any time. Data from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs show capital flowing from "regulated balance sheets" to "light capital trading and underwriting." This is a compensatory mechanism, not a cure. When the IPO window tightens or trading volatility declines, this compensation will quickly fail. In a high interest rate environment, credit quality is the next lesion requiring intraoperative biopsy. If commercial real estate or leveraged loans suffer widespread ischemia, the entire financial system’s ejection fraction will decline.
Now, the monitor on the operating table shows: heart rate is acceptable, blood pressure is high, oxygen saturation is borderline. The next step is not to administer a placebo, but to prepare for extracorporeal circulation. #bofaq3hitbyfinesThe $ZK direction seems consistent, but the volume contraction shows no clear stance
$ZK is up 13.09% in 24 hours, currently priced at 0.01736. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour structures are relatively strong, yet the current trading volume is only 0.04 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. The direction is aligned, but participation hasn't kept up, which is exactly the most debatable point right now.
Putting emotions aside, the structural information is very specific. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 0.01700504, currently strong; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 0.01615055, also currently strong. The short-term cycle reveals changes, while the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of overcrowding; when they conflict, beware of reversals. You can't just pick the side that favors you.
The stronger side has a clear task: first, firmly hold above the 1-hour resistance at 0.0188, then observe whether the 4-hour resistance near 0.0188 can still maintain support. If it only briefly breaks through intraday and quickly returns to the range, the so-called breakout lacks the crucial second half.The timer on the chessboard is still running, while the opponent has already reached for the queenside. The 10-year yield stands at 5.2%, just 70 basis points away from the 5.9% threshold for a piece exchange. The 37% group has drawn their psychological line at 6%, and the 19% group has already started to make moves—this is not an ordinary portfolio rebalancing; it is a structural transformation in the midgame, with Wang Yi's pawn chain loosening.
This Bank of America fund manager survey is essentially a record of the opponent's chess moves. It tells us that large capital is calculating the payoff of a "rook-for-two-bishops" trade: giving up the offensive power of stocks in exchange for the solid defense of bonds. BlackRock has ended nearly six years of underweighting government bonds, a signaling move equivalent to pulling back a minor piece hanging long on the Marshall attack line to a safe square, while shifting to overweight short-term debt and neutral on U.S. equities. A grandmaster looks at this move not for its immediate value but for its impact on the overall tension of the position.
The key lies in the timing difference. Short-term bonds are stable under high interest rates, like passed pawns in an endgame—controllable and calculable. But the rise in long-term yields is a heavy weight pressing down on stock valuations. This is not a simple rotation of funds; it is a linkage of two battlefields: one on the interest rate board, the other on the equity board. When the 10-year yield approaches 5.9%, stockholders face not a multiple-choice question but a forced piece exchange.
Tokenized U.S. equity assets like $xAAPL act as a "synchronous viewport" in this game. In traditional markets, large capital's piece exchanges take weeks to become visible; on-chain assets amplify these moves into real-time piece shifts. So when U.S. Treasury yields step up a notch, you shouldn't just watch the spot market—you should watch who blinks first between bulls and bears through this window.
Currently, there is no widespread rotation because most players are still reading the clock. The corridor between 5.2% and 5.9% is a midgame filled with temptations. Some will preemptively sacrifice pieces in this corridor; others will wait until the obvious critical square at 6% to act. The real risk is that if long-term yields surge first, the volatility of both stocks and bonds will amplify simultaneously. That would not be a smooth piece exchange but a double check on two fronts.
The hardest lesson I learned in the endgame is not to wait until the opponent checks you to respond, but to anticipate their path from the initial formation. The yield approaching the 6% line is not the end but a turning point. Whoever positions themselves before this holds the initiative. #bofastockbonddivide $CORE is putting on a "dying to show you" performance.
The price has dropped over 99% from its ATH, hitting a low of $0.01487, with a market cap of less than $20 million. All technical indicators are strongly signaling sell. Every technical aspect is saying "run fast," but I want to talk about something different: precisely during the same time window when the price was smashed into the ICU, CORE's fundamentals are undergoing a fundamental logical shift.
The old CORE is dead: it’s no longer viable.
What supported it before? Inflation subsidies + narrative hype. Monthly linear unlocking of zero-cost chips dumped on the market, project team controlling and offloading tokens, TVL entirely propped up by token incentives.
The 8.31 validator vulnerability was a fatal blow—some validators overclaimed rewards, a hard fork destroyed 150 million tokens, exchanges collectively suspended deposits and withdrawals, and trust in the underlying token economy was shattered. The old model no longer works.
New CORE changes the engine: from a money printer to a rent collector.
The core of the 2026 roadmap is one sentence: smash the money printer and replace it with a rent collector.
BTC staking fees, SatPay card fees, AMP asset management income—all are pooled to buy back CORE on the secondary market, replacing inflation subsidies. Meanwhile, block mining rewards are cut by 17%, reducing incremental selling pressure, and ecosystem income forms a rigid buy-side. The logic becomes: the more active the BTC chain is → the higher the income → the stronger the buybacks → the less circulation.
The DAO is gradually exiting block production, handing all block production rights to independent validators, moving toward true decentralization.
But there is one thing I can’t avoid.
SatPay has been delayed. Because fixing the 8.31 vulnerability consumed team resources, combined with licensing and regulatory issues, the launch time is uncertain, and over 20,000 users are waiting in line. This is the most critical engine of the entire "rent collector" narrative; if it doesn’t start, the flywheel just spins empty.
Community sentiment has already been torn to the extreme—some are all in for ten-thousand-fold gains, others bring up the 8.31 vulnerability shouting zero.
My judgment:
$CORE is now a target where "the logic has changed, but the evidence has not yet arrived." The death of the old logic is a fact; the establishment of the new logic requires at least a quarter of real data verification.
Watch three things closely: the official launch timetable of SatPay, the execution record of the first on-chain buyback, and whether BTC can hold above $75,000. Until these three resonate, all the "new narratives" are just PPT slides.
$CORE The moment Standard Chartered Bank directly embedded the trading desk into the existing account system, what I saw was someone finally stopping building sales offices and starting to pour load-bearing walls.
In the past few years, the vast majority of projects in the crypto industry have been working on facades. Whitepapers are renderings, roadshows are model rooms, and community calls are the light shows on the opening day. The real issue has never been whether the facade looks good, but where the foundation is, how deep the piles are driven, and whether the load can be calculated properly. Standard Chartered’s approach this time is not to build a new building but to reinforce and renovate the existing financial main structure—directly connecting BTC and ETH trading through the existing bank account channels, targeting qualified professional investors. This is equivalent to connecting the entire pipeline into the city’s original municipal network without needing to dig up the road again.
This is the most expensive and most underestimated step in structural engineering. Building a new independent building is easy; the hard part is replacing the load-bearing system of an old building without stopping operations.
Seeing BNY expanding digital asset custody in Europe, Citi pushing tokenized deposits to Japan and the UAE, and Wells Fargo building stablecoin solutions, these are different zones on the same master plan. Custody is the foundation—without a reliable foundation, the superstructure is all unsafe buildings. Tokenized deposits are prefabricated beams and columns, made in the factory, assembled on site, shortening construction time and controlling errors. Stablecoins are the concrete, the liquidity itself, which solidifies to form the framework. What does RLUSD’s custody and collateral exploration mean? It means this material is starting to be allowed to participate in load calculations, not just displayed as a sample on the showroom floor.
The real question is not whether these institutions can attract the first batch of customers. The first batch of customers has never been the hard part. The hard part is whether, after the building is topped out, residents can continue moving in, whether it can pass inspection, and whether it can withstand periodic settlement on soft soil foundations. Trading demand is not maintained by opening ceremonies but by structural redundancy—when the market declines, when volatility tears the building with creaks, does this system have enough dampers and shear walls to absorb the energy?
The way institutional funds enter is changing the load pattern. Retail investors are wind loads, coming fast and going fast; institutions are static loads, pressing down once in place. But static loads require higher foundation bearing capacity and stricter settlement control standards. The entry of banks is essentially a static load test for this building.
And the real structural signal lies in settlement. Once on-chain settlement is connected, it’s equivalent to connecting the building’s entire sewage, electricity, and fire protection to the municipal main network. At that time, trading, custody, collateral, and settlement form a closed load-bearing system where any single point failure will not cause overall collapse. This is the premise of sustainability.
As for those assets priced only by renderings, daring to sell pre-construction units before even completing the survey report, the market will eventually conduct a quality inspection to see whose piles reach bedrock and whose columns are just stuck in backfill soil.
The foundation determines the ceiling. And the foundation is built with invisible engineering work. #stanchartbtcethtradingThe Siberian high pressure is stacking against the trend over Amsterdam — that was my first reaction when I saw the €11.662B Q3 revenue. A 57.5% gross margin, even higher than forecast, this is not just an ordinary warm ridge passing through; the entire atmosphere is resetting the thermodynamic baseline for an entire industry chain.
Let's first look at the ground observation data. Q4 sales expectations are €14.2B to €15.2B, with the full-year guidance floor raised. In my jargon, this is called a “forecast revision upward,” shifting the model output from a steady state to an enhanced state. But the key is what management said — from 2027 to 2028, AI and advanced process demand may exceed planned supply; customers are already inquiring about 2029 to 2030 purchases, though these are not yet confirmed orders.
What is this? This is a typical “offshore typhoon formation signal.” Satellite cloud maps already show convection bursting, but it’s not yet time to name and report it. Customer inquiries are like those peripheral spiral rainbands; whether a real landfall typhoon forms depends on the persistence of convection over the next 48 to 72 hours. Without confirmed orders, there is no confirmed storm path. Models can provide probabilities, but probability is not a pressure gradient.
Now look at the capital market reaction. US stocks fell 3.9%, and the chip sector weakened overall. This is like a strong convective event in July — ground temperatures are high, warm moist air is abundant, everything seems to be going up, but then a mid-level dry cold air wedge intrudes, instantly triggering a downburst. Valuation concerns are that dry cold air. Pricing all the super-expected demand for the next two years into today’s stock price is like trading the typhoon path forecast as if it were reality; any model divergence causes the echo to collapse immediately.
$xNVDA, as the mapped target, has a linkage logic I can clearly see on the radar echo map. ASML is the upstream pressure field, the situational background for the entire semiconductor industry chain. The stronger the high-pressure belt it provides, the smoother the wind direction for downstream foundries, computing power, and AI accelerator cards. But today’s problem is that while the situational field is strengthening, local downflows are appearing. This “large-scale positive, small-scale negative” configuration often means the market is waiting for a clearer trigger mechanism — that is, when those “inquiries” turn into “orders.”
The variable I’m most focused on is capacity expansion. Exploring more capacity in 2028, the initiative is not on the demand side but on the supply side’s construction cycle. Building a fab, tuning a set of equipment, from laying the foundation to stable mass production, takes longer than a full El Niño event cycle. This means even if a supply gap really appears in 2027 to 2028, the capacity response function has a significant lag. The greater the lag, the more volatile the price signal swings.
So the current scene is clear: high-level clouds are rapidly thickening, cirrus hooks have appeared, and pressure continues to drop. This is the silent period before storm formation. But all meteorologists know instrument readings can lead weather changes, while order books won’t lead cash flow for long.
My judgment is: this is a deep convective system in formation, vertical wind shear is weakening, sea temperature conditions are favorable, not yet named or reported, but it has entered the window for intensified observation and consultation. #asmlq3revenuerecordWhy is everything dumping today?
Almost $1.3 Trillion has been wiped out from the stocks, metals, and crypto in just 2 hours
Key reasons:
1. US CPI hits a 4-month high, while the Core CPI hits a 3-month high
2. October rate hike odds jumped to 51.3%
3. DXY spiked to its highest level in 18 months
3. US 5Y bond yield hits a 19-year high💰 #BTC ’s bear market looks less brutal this time 👀
Compared with earlier cycles, the chart shows a shallower decline and a quicker rebound so far.
My take: institutional buyers have helped cushion the sell-off. They’ve been picking up BTC and holding onto it more firmly than the whales of previous cycles, giving the market a stronger cushion when selling pressure hits. 🐋Bitcoin Bears Are Switching Sides 👀
84% of 164 tracked analysts are bullish, up from just 37% in July. That’s the strongest reading since August 2025.
47 analysts flipped bullish, only 5 turned bearish. Macro desks led the shift, climbing from 6% to 94% bullish. On-chain analysts, the largest group, reached 79%.
Sentiment is stronger than at the same stage of the 2023 rally, despite half the price gain. 📈Hello brothers and sisters
Brothers! CPI is higher than expected, so why does the market fall instead of rise? Stop treating high inflation as a positive for crypto.
September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations. Once the data was released, the market's first reaction was not "to ease monetary policy," but "rate cuts are even harder." The Fed cannot quickly turn dovish, the probability of a rate hike in October has increased, and US Treasury yields have risen accordingly.
When US Treasury yields rise, risk-free assets become more attractive, so funds naturally withdraw from risk assets like BTC and US stocks, selling first. Crypto also faces cascading liquidations of leveraged long positions, amplifying the decline.
Many mistakenly think high inflation benefits crypto, but this is a misconception. The moment the data lands, the market prioritizes trading on tightening expectations. Even if the FOMC does not hike rates at the end of the month, inflation resilience will keep the Fed hawkish, pushing pressure to December and next year.
Next, watch PPI and the FOMC; macro uncertainties are not yet resolved. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 📊 #BTC drop from $86k has flushed out some leverage, with futures positions down about 8% in coin terms.Netflix's quarterly EPS is highly likely to exceed expectations, but surpassing revenue forecasts will be more challenging.
The core logic is: the company's own guidance ($0.82) is clearly set, and analyst consensus happens to be at or slightly above this level. As long as actual results fall within the guidance range, it is easy to meet or slightly exceed the "consensus" line.
Reasons supporting EPS beating expectations: Midterm Election Curse: BTC Bottoms Earlier Each Time
Bottomed 71 days after the 2014 election, 39 days after 2018, and 13 days after 2022. Numbers don't lie; the waiting time keeps shortening.
The logic isn't mystical: institutionalization means funds no longer wait for certainty, front-running becomes the norm; deeper macro linkage turns policy implementation periods directly into moments of liquidity restructuring.
In 2026, what to watch isn't the calendar but three signals: whether liquidity improves, whether open interest decreases or increases during declines, and whether the price dares to make new lows when the market consensus is bearish. Price drops combined with declining open interest often indicate deleveraging; only when price stabilizes and active buying strengthens is a reversal worth watching.
History only provides clues; fund behavior is the true test. Patterns are not reasons to bet early.
$BTCThe privacy narrative cools down, and capital is reconsidering its choices
Short-term capital in the market is competing to push prices higher, while long-term capital remains cautious. Compared to the broad US stock indices, this asset shows short-term correlated fluctuations, but the underlying capital logic differs. US stocks are priced based on corporate earnings expectations, whereas this asset relies more on early narrative hype to attract rotating capital. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 It's too simple 💰 Buyers kept refilling the #BTC book today.
The low timeframe view shows that the large bids that sat at $80k for the last week were filled and new large bids were placed, pushing price up systematically.
Now we see the support level under $80k weakening again.#After Tesla's deliveries exceeded expectations, the focus shifts to profit recovery - Privacy narrative cools down, funds are rebalancing
Short-term funds in the market are competing to push prices up, while long-term funds remain cautious. Compared to the broad US stock indices, this asset shows short-term correlated fluctuations, but the underlying capital logic is different. US stocks are priced based on corporate earnings expectations, whereas this asset relies more on early narrative hype to attract rotating funds.
It once touted itself as a benchmark for privacy technology, but privacy features are optional, with only about 30% of tokens entering the privacy pool; most transactions remain transparent. The Orchard privacy pool had a vulnerability that allowed token forgery, lurking for nearly four years. Even after an emergency hard fork fix, it cannot be fully proven that the vulnerability was never exploited. Internal team splits and disputes over development fund distribution persist, creating a stark contrast between the decentralized claims and internal governance chaos.
As market narrative cools, funds may continue to withdraw, and the previously correlated movement may change accordingly. How will you set your current order range and stop-loss levels?
$ZEC $BTC $ETH💰 #BTC is sitting on support.
However, underneath it a large cluster of long liquidations will be triggered. Another cluster sits around $75k.
Overhead, shorts liquidations have piled up above $85k all week. The lower clusters currently appear more fragile than those above.💰 Buyers kept refilling the #BTC book today.
The low timeframe view shows that the large bids that sat at $80k for the last week were filled and new large bids were placed, pushing price up systematically.
Now we see the support level under $80k weakening again."Macro Bearish, BTC and ETH Data Hammered Down"
Macro pressure persists. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have retreated, gold is gaining momentum, but this is just a risk-off thermometer and not enough alone to confirm a trend reversal. If tonight's PPI and retail sales trigger yield volatility again, risk assets will remain under pressure. (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$BTC: Around 81,000 is short-term support. If data is unfavorable, the probability of breaking below 80,000 is relatively high; if the rebound fails to hold above 83,500, the bearish structure remains unchanged. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for institutional choices. (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$ETH: 2,380 is current support. If lost, look down to 2,300 or even lower; resistance remains near 2,500 on rebounds, and when weaker than BTC, avoid catching the fall. (╥﹏╥)
Strategy: Before the news is fully digested, shorting is preferred over going long. Wait for PPI, retail sales, and institutional moves to settle before choosing direction. Personally leaning toward BTC breaking below 80,000 and ETH below 2,300.
Just personal opinion, not investment advice. (￣▽￣)~*
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？
#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 CPI just exploded, and now PPI has flipped the table
Inflation data has exceeded expectations for two consecutive days, with PPI year-on-year surging to 6.3%, significantly higher than CPI. The pressure is not only from gasoline and energy; housing, cars, and clothing are also rising, indicating that price increases are transmitting to the consumer end.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, targeting a range of 3.75%-4%. This PPI basically shuts down the rate cut narrative. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar still have short-term upward momentum, and stock valuations continue to be under pressure.
But there is a contrast worth noting: the Philadelphia and New York Fed manufacturing indexes have both risen above 20, with volume and prices increasing together, so the recession narrative currently has no foothold. Risk assets are struggling in the short term but remain optimistic in the long term; oil prices are the only breakout point.
$BTC$BTC Midterm election "bottom-finding countdown" is accelerating⏰
2014: After the election ended, the market still endured 71 more days before hitting the historical bottom.🐢
2018: This consolidation shortened to 39 days, with efficiency directly upgraded.⚡
2022: Only 13 days, the final drop completed, then the market soared.🚀
71→39→13, this is not an ordinary decrease, but the main force "digging the pit" is stepping on the gas📉➡️📈. The time left for retail investors to calmly bottom-fish is being wildly compressed.
Now there are only about 3 weeks left until the 2026 midterm election. According to this convergence pace, the bottom of this round of Bitcoin may no longer wait for the election results but be smashed in advance before the vote. If so, what follows the election may not be a window to take over but the starting point of a violent surge🔥.
History does not simply repeat, but the rhythm always hints: don’t wait until the bell rings to think about finding a seat.👀Last week's post made it clear: the rally starting from 80393 is most likely just a rebound, and the strength of the rise is insufficient to define it as a new main upward wave. Today BTC fell below 80226, confirming that the wave starting at 80393 is a rebound rally ✅
Will BTC further dip to 40,000 or 30,000?
From the weekly structure analysis:
As shown in Figure 1, if the decline starting at 126200 bottomed at 57800, the black line segment represents the first weekly-level upward wave. The current decline starting at 87395 is most likely a same-level correction of the black segment's rise, not a new major bear market main downward wave.
Key support: the green Gann 2/1 angle line, currently at 78400. The longer the price stays above this line, the higher the probability that the decline from 87395 is merely a correction.
Lower-level structure (Figure 2):
The weekly-level correction starting at 87395 has a relatively complex adjustment structure.
Upper resistance: 83000, which is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of the 87395—80226 downward wave.
• Holding above 83000 confirms a right-side signal of a stop in the decline, marking the end of the adjustment phase.
• Failure to hold above means the adjustment trend continues.
Summary:
The short-term break confirms that 80393 was only a rebound, but there is no need to be immediately bearish down to 30,000 or 40,000. The core observation is the key Gann support at 78400; the rebound first targets the 83000 resistance Day 23 of OKB grid trading,
continuing to decline,
losses have reached more than twenty,
still within the expected range,
16 arbitrage trades per day,
arbitrage annualized return of 103%,
more than my expected 9 trades and 70%,
I am already very satisfied.
I plan to hold this position until it exceeds the trading range
or liquidates.
In any case, let it disappear naturally,
do not cancel it manually.
Of course,
based on the principle of letting profits roll,
I will withdraw the arbitrage profits,
and use them for other purposes.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Ad subscription packages are definitely a new growth selling point.
But expectations are very high, and it’s easy to see a repeat of TSMC’s “good news priced in then sell-off” scenario. As long as ad user growth or new subscriptions fall even slightly short, capital will flee.