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The market never trades the data itself, but the gap between the data and expectations. The September CPI was slightly higher than expected, with the excess limited; looking at the data alone is insufficient to reverse any trend. What is noteworthy is on the other side: the interest rate hike expectation has been pushed to 90%, indicating that the previous decline was not the market digesting this inflation, but a worse scenario than reality. The actual outcome is lighter than the assumption, so the rebound follows—prices stabilize ahead of the data, confirming that the prior sell-off exceeded what fundamentals required.
This logic is even clearer when applied to $DOGE. DOGE is sensitive to liquidity and sentiment; it bears pressure when tightening is expected and shows greater elasticity when expectations improve. This round, it rose with the broader market, relying not on its own new news but on the slight easing of the burden over risk assets. Musk's statements and DOGE ecosystem progress provide a long-term narrative, but short-term pricing power still lies in macro factors.
Therefore, what to watch is not the decimal deviation in CPI, but the pendulum of expectations. With a 90% interest rate hike expectation, there is little room left for bad news; as long as the data remains "slightly high," the pendulum swings back, and Dogecoin's recovery often leads the way. The August CPI data came out tonight, slightly bearish for crypto but not a total blowout.
Overall CPI monthly rate is 0.4%, annual rate 3.4%, basically in line with expectations. The trouble is the core CPI monthly rate at 0.3%, which is significantly higher than the expected 0.2%, while the annual rate at 2.4% is still okay. The market immediately pushed up the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike next week, lifting the dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets initially.
The crypto market reacted typically: BTC first dropped to around 76,000, then quickly pulled back to the 76,900-77,000 range; ETH also surged briefly before retreating. The short-term move is just an emotional purge, not a one-way crash.
In the next few days, watch two things. First, the FOMC next week—if the core remains hot, rate hike expectations will harden, keeping liquidity tight. Second, whether BTC can hold around 76,500 and ETH around 2,406. If they can't hold, consider trimming positions; don't chase the rebound right after the data release. For those already holding, treat tonight’s spike and pullback as digestion, and avoid levering up to tough it out. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $BTC $ETH CPI released, basically in line with expectations!
But the core CPI month-on-month ≥0.3%, so it strengthened the rate hike expectations for next week, and the market has already priced in a 90% probability of a rate hike.
The recent continuous market pullbacks have already digested this rate hike expectation; the market is truly worried about consecutive rate hikes, not just this one.
So overall, the rebound of $BTC started, the spike to 76k just hit the key support! Oracle’s latest earnings show the market is starting to reward real AI execution, not just hype. AI cloud revenue jumped 121% YoY, while RPO climbed to $664B and guidance improved. Adobe also beat estimates, yet shares fell as investors demand stronger AI monetization and cash flow. For BTC, massive AI capex keeps liquidity expansion relevant, but near-term direction still depends on inflation, rates, and tonight’s CPI. Execution matters more than promisesCPI explodes! Core inflation exceeds expectations, September rate hike probability soars to 90%
1. Data Breakdown: Inflation rises across the board
① Overall CPI monthly rate +0.4% (in line with expectations), gasoline cost rebound is the main cause; annual rate 3.4%, unchanged from last month.
② Core CPI monthly rate +0.3%, higher than the expected +0.2%, energy shocks have begun to transmit to core inflation.
③ Combined with strong Thursday PPI and last week's nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 far exceeding expectations, the three data points resonate.
2. Market Reaction: Rate hike expectations surge
① After the inflation data release, the market expects the Federal Reserve's rate hike probability next week to soar to about 90%.
② The rate cut fantasy is completely shattered, US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar strengthens, and risk asset valuations are under comprehensive pressure.
3. Impact on the crypto market
① Rate hike expectations suppress, BTC/ETH face a new round of selling pressure tests in the short term.
② Funds tend to stay on the sidelines before the policy meeting, rebound resistance is huge, and it is difficult to have a trending market in the short term.
③ Operationally, control your hands, do not blindly bottom-fish, do not catch falling knives during declines, wait for the policy meeting results next week before deciding the direction.
In a word: Inflation has not retreated, the rate hike sword hangs high. BTC still needs to endure in the short term, waiting for the Federal Reserve's final decision.
$BTC $ETH $BTC in the evening, it seems the bullish view is correct,
Currently holding long positions on BTC,
$ETH
Long position on Ethereum at 2417, now at 2493 directly closing the position, reversing to short. Target 2460
#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
#BTC spot ETF continuous outflows BTC stuck at 77,000, this CPI is half sugar and half knife
The data landing is like opening a two-layer box, the upper layer is sugar, the lower layer hides a knife. $BTC stuck at 77,000 is not rushing to choose a direction because both bulls and bears have caught half.
Sugar in the annual rate: overall CPI year-on-year 3.4% meets expectations, core year-on-year dropped to 2.4%, declining for three consecutive months, hitting a new low since April 2021, the big trend of inflation is retreating. Knife in the monthly rate: core month-on-month 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, the highest in 5 months, the pace of decline has stalled in the past month. Once the data came out, the dollar briefly rose about 20 points, gold fell back, the market first recognized the "knife".
On the crypto side, BTC is tugging at 77,000, $ETH stable around 2,460, SOL still at the 100 threshold, DOGE stuck at 0.083 without recovery. The cooling annual rate is distant water, unable to save the near-term heat of the month-on-month rate, the suspense of next week's rate hike has not been removed.
If the US stock market opens and holds, BTC rallies back above 78,000 with volume, the sugar will ferment, SOL and $DOGE will rebound; if the dollar continues to strengthen and BTC breaks 76,000, the knife will fall, high beta will take the hit first. Don't draw conclusions by only looking at half.Full Data Overview: Surface Meets Expectations, Core Month-on-Month "Hidden Risk"
Indicator Actual Value Expected Value Previous Value
CPI Year-on-Year +3.4% +3.4% +3.4%
CPI Month-on-Month +0.4% +0.4% +0.1%
Core CPI Year-on-Year +2.4% +2.4% +2.5%
Core CPI Month-on-Month +0.3% +0.2% +0.2%
Data Source:
On the surface, both overall CPI and core CPI year-on-year fully meet expectations. However, the core CPI month-on-month recorded 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, marking the highest since May this year.
This is the most critical figure tonight. Core CPI excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, directly reflecting underlying inflation pressure. A 0.3% month-on-month increase means inflation pressure is spreading from the energy sector to core goods and services — exactly confirming the "stickiness of core inflation" warned by Federal Reserve Chair Powell at Jackson Hole.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Just said to follow the smart money to short, and this market slapped me directly.
Looking at the chart below, it's a full V-shaped rebound. BTC surged from 76,001 straight up to 77,713, ETH pulled back sharply from 2,405 to 2,505, and SOL was the most aggressive, rebounding from 97.90 to above 101. The big bullish candles shot up, those who chased shorts just now are probably trapped inside again.
Looking at the news in the screenshot, it's all on the warm side. Metaplanet will set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong as an Asian trading hub, clearly signaling plans to accumulate more BTC. Standard Chartered Bank issued a report optimistic about SKY token rising to $0.325 by the end of 2028, five times the current price, clearly supporting the Ethereum ecosystem narrative.
The market was still crazily pricing in rate hikes, with interest rate futures plunging and the probability of a September hike soaring to 90%. Normally, such a macro hammer would have broken BTC's support long ago. But what happened? As soon as the shorts rushed in, this violent rally blew them out clean.
This market is like this: when everyone thinks rate hikes must cause a drop and follows the smart money to short, that's often when the big players are closing their nets. The smart money made a killing going long ETH last time, now going short BTC, maybe hedging with macro moves. Retail investors blindly copying will only get wiped out.
I'm not stubborn anymore. Since the V-shaped rebound has started, I respect the market. For now, no catching falling knives, no blind chasing longs. Tonight, let's see if BTC can hold above 78,000. Only if it holds can we talk about a reversal; if not, it's a bull trap.🔥 US August CPI heats up beyond expectations! Core CPI accelerates month-on-month, will BTC fall or is the bad news already priced in?
□□ US August CPI
CPI month-on-month +0.4% +0.1% ↑
CPI year-on-year +3.4% +3.4% unchanged
Core CPI month-on-month +0.3% +0.2% ↑
Core CPI year-on-year +2.4% +2.5% ↓
🔥 Key highlights
1️⃣ CPI month-on-month clearly accelerates
From 0.1% in July → 0.4%, inflationary pressure resurfaces.
2️⃣ Core CPI month-on-month rises to 0.3%
This is hotter than the market's hoped-for 0.2%, indicating that price pressures remain after excluding energy and food.
3️⃣ But core CPI year-on-year falls to 2.4%
This is a relatively favorable aspect, showing that core inflation is still slowly declining on an annual basis.
4️⃣ Gasoline is a major driver of this CPI increase
August gasoline price index rose 3.9%, energy index rose 2.1%.
📌 My judgment
This CPI report is:
"Overall inflation is on the hotter side, but core year-on-year continues to cool down"
This is not a very comfortable data point for the Federal Reserve.
Short-term market impact: bearish for BTC, bearish for US stocks.
Especially if the market had previously priced in a Fed rate cut, then **core CPI month-on-month 0.3%** may suppress rate cut expectations, supporting the US dollar and US Treasury yields. 根据最新公布的数据，2026年9月11日发布的美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）具体结果如下：
整体CPI：同比增长 3.4%，与前值及市场预期一致 。
核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）：同比增长 2.4%，符合市场预期，但较前值（2.5%）有所回落 。
核心CPI环比：增长 0.3%，略高于市场此前0.2%的预期 。
数据背后的主要驱动因素：
此次整体CPI的反弹主要受到能源价格（如汽油价格）上涨的推动 。不过，剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心通胀的总体趋势仍在回落，住房成本降温等因素起到了关键作用 。
对美联储政策的影响：
这份数据是美联储9月议息会议前的最后一份关键通胀报告。由于核心CPI环比涨幅（0.3%）略超预期，且此前公布的非农就业数据强劲，市场对于美联储在9月重启加息的预期显著升温。不过，核心通胀同比降至2.4%也给美联储维持利率不变提供了一定空间，最终决策将取决于美联储对通胀压力是否扩散的评估 。$BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Bitcoin is holding near the $77K–$78K zone, but the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to macro data. The big catalyst today is U.S. CPI. Yesterday’s PPI came in hot, with producer prices rising 5.4% year-over-year, while surging oil prices are adding another layer of inflation pressure. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield close to 5%. Markets are now pricing roughly a 67–70% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike next week. That creates a diff$ETH This time I will treat it as a position in the altcoin market to buy
$ETH is currently around $2460.
My reasons for buying ETH are completely different from $BTC.
For BTC, I look at the overall market direction; for ETH, I care more about whether, after the CPI risk passes, the market turns Risk-on again,and whether funds will flow again from BTC to ETH and altcoins.
Previously, ETH spot ETFs have already seen significant capital inflows again, and currently about one-third of ETH supply August CPI Released: Core CPI Monthly Rate Hits Highest Since May This Year
US August inflation data released: Unadjusted core CPI annual rate at 2.4%, in line with expectations, previous value 2.50%; core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, above the expected 0.2%, marking the highest since May this year.
Seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate 0.4%, in line with expectations, previous value 0.10%; unadjusted CPI annual rate 3.4%, matching expectations.
Overall, year-on-year decline, but core inflation rebounded month-on-month, reflecting persistent inflation stickiness. Energy price increases drove overall price rise, and resilience in service and housing prices remains. After data release, the market repriced rate hike risks, US Treasury yields and the dollar fluctuated, and the crypto market saw a rebound with clear warming of on-exchange long sentiment.
It is important to distinguish that this round of rise is a short-term sentiment recovery after data release, not indicating that macro pressure is fully relieved. Core CPI month-on-month exceeding expectations means the possibility of a rate hike at the September meeting next week remains high; it cannot be directly concluded that rate hike expectations have peaked.
In the crypto market, the current trading logic is "bad news priced in," with funds speculating on next week's FOMC decision. Short-term bullish sentiment is warming, but caution is still needed: if the meeting signals a hawkish stance, the market could easily reverse again.
After BTC and ETH rebound, key support and resistance levels need to be reassessed; LAB unlocks $BTC tomorrow #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 US August CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, unchanged from July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. Core CPI year-on-year fell to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, but the month-on-month 0.3% is slightly higher than the common market expectation of 0.2%. Gasoline rose 3.9% in a single month, contributing more than one-third of the overall increase; housing also rebounded from 0.1% to 0.3%. The data does not indicate "out-of-control inflation," nor can it be described as "significantly cooling down." For the crypto space, the key is not this year-on-year integer, but the interest rate decision next week. Yesterday's PPI was already on the hot side, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike remains around 70%. The core is still trending down, but oil prices, housing, and month-on-month figures make it difficult for the Fed to pivot immediately. Real interest rates are close to 5%, making yieldless Bitcoin more expensive; ETFs have seen net outflows in recent days, and leveraged longs are being liquidated first. BTC is under pressure near $77,000, and altcoins are even more fragile.
This CPI report seems more like a confirmation: macro is still winding up risk assets. The real pricing point is the September 16 FOMC. Before that, rather than betting on a sentiment reversal after the CPI, it is better to watch whether US Treasuries can hold above 5% and whether the rate hike probability will be revised upward again. 💥💥💥CPI "0.3% Threshold"
August CPI: Year-over-year 3.4%, month-over-month 0.4%, all within expectations; but core month-over-month 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%—this is the critical decimal point.
JPMorgan drew the line early: 0.2% means no change, 0.3% means a rate hike. CME tools show a 67.4% probability of a 25bp rate hike in September. Coupled with PPI year-over-year at 5.4% and oil prices breaking $100, the rate hike on 9/16 is basically locked in.
For the crypto circle: BTC has retreated to 76,000–77,000, ETFs have continuous net outflows, and short-term pressure remains. But don't forget the market's old script—"rate hike realization" often means the worst is over. The real direction awaits Fed Chair Powell's speech on 9/16.#LAPTOPCrash99%
Whenever I sweep away the layers of ash scorched by fierce flames with a hand shovel and brush in the excavation pit, I can always smell the same burnt scent as on today's blockchain. LAPTOP completed its funeral ritual of plummeting 99% from $191 within just a few hours, leaving behind another charred remnant of humanity in the digital strata of the Base chain.
A real liquidity pool of $48,000 arrogantly supports a paper fully diluted valuation as high as $144 billion. This absurd structure is no different from the giant stone coins sunk into the deep sea off Yap Island in the Western Pacific, which islanders still account for and transfer out of thin air. It is also the perfect reincarnation of the 1720 British South Sea Bubble in the cyber world. As long as no one truly demands to salvage the giant stones from the deep sea, the illusion of prosperity can circulate freely on clay tablets or ledgers.
Under my archaeological lens, there is nothing new under the sun. The golden age of all paper valuations is built on an extremely fragile illusory consensus: no one must ever demand on-site verification of real gold or redemption of silver. 🏛️
A total supply of 1 billion tokens, with 30% locked in the founders' dark vaults and 20% dispersed in batches under the name of airdrops. This is nothing but an ancient play from the Mesopotamian priests monopolizing temple granaries and controlling the labor of believers with clay chips. When the first airdrop claims are cashed out, the market makers' chips and early profiteers' shovels simultaneously strike the surface, and the thin layer of floating soil, only $48,000 thick, is doomed to collapse instantly into a void fault.
Many blame this disaster on network congestion or matching mechanism flaws. But from a stratigraphic perspective, this is not a technical failure of infrastructure at all, but a contemporary Pompeii site just sealed. The victims gathered in the rubble at the top layer are essentially no different from the ancients thousands of years ago who sacrificed their entire harvest to fictional gods and ultimately froze to death before the altar.
They exchanged real gold and silver for a string of digital inscriptions that cannot bear physical weight, until the ruthless scraper of liquidity exhaustion fell, stripping away all illusory flesh. History has never been a one-way extending line but a cyclical imprint of human weaknesses on different technological carriers. 📜
From the tulip bulbs trampled in 17th century Amsterdam, to the charters reduced to waste paper in London coffeehouses, to today's hundred-billion on-chain ghosts propped up by tens of thousands in capital, all empty reputations without physical backing ultimately turn to dust buried in peat layers millennia deep.#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测
FactSet survey shows that Datadog ($DDOG) has an average rating of Buy, with a target price of $288.05, and analysts are generally bullish.
Datadog focuses on cloud monitoring and observability; the more AI applications and data volume there are, the stronger its demand becomes. This logic is somewhat similar to Oracle — both sell the tools, with revenue visibility better than the application side. However, the SaaS sector is very sensitive to interest rates, and valuation multiples tend to be pressured by macro factors, so whether the target price can be realized depends on the direction of rate hike expectations. It's not surprising that analysts rate it as a Buy; what’s truly worth watching is whether the target price is being raised. If the pace of upgrades accelerates, that signals renewed recognition from investors.In financial markets, blows do not come as a knockout all at once, but rather arrive as successive signals that force everyone to recalculate. Last night witnessed a direct confrontation with the latest inflation data; the figures released on September 10 loudly confirmed that inflationary pressures have begun to awaken again. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for purchase prices in the United States rose by 0.4% month-over-month in August, bringing the annual growth to 5.4%, surpassing market expectations and sparking a heated debate among investors (especially after achieving 7 consecutive wins previously1. Core CPI rose month-over-month, indicating a slower pace of inflation decline, leading the market to lower expectations for rate cuts: the Federal Reserve will not cut rates quickly or significantly.
2. Market interpretation: hawkish bias.
- Negative impact: U.S. stocks, gold, cryptocurrencies (weaker rate cut expectations, making the dollar more likely to strengthen)
- Positive impact: U.S. dollar.Brothers, the CPI data has been released, meeting expectations, but the market hasn't relaxed.
$BTC is currently around $76,900, $ETH around $2,470. August CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, all in line with expectations. After the data release, Bitcoin slightly rebounded.
Why doesn't it rise despite meeting expectations? Because the probability of a rate hike hasn't decreased.
CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September remains as high as 71.3%. CPI just "doesn't add trouble," but it also doesn't give the market a reason for "no rate hike." The 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 4.9%, so the risk asset's threat hasn't been removed.
Liquidation data reveals the market's position structure.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $446 million, with long positions liquidated at $352 million, nearly 80%. Bitcoin long liquidations were $111 million, Ethereum long liquidations $74.01 million. This shows that before the drop, most of the market was betting on a rebound—longs were too crowded, so when it fell, it caused a stampede.
Technical aspect: BTC is testing the key support zone of $76,000-$76,500. ETH's $2,400 is a defense line repeatedly held since September. If these two levels are confirmed broken, the next targets are $75,000 and $2,350.
All data is out, next is the Fed's decision on September 15-16. The market's vote with its feet is: inflation is not out of control, but there's no reason for a rate cut.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 The US August CPI will be released tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time). The market expects headline month-on-month +0.4%, year-on-year 3.4%; core month-on-month +0.2%, year-on-year 2.4%. The headline is very likely to be pushed higher by oil prices, which is not surprising since crude oil has already surged past 100 this week. The real tone-setting for next week's FOMC is the core: 0.2% can still argue for holding, but if it reaches 0.3%, the rate hike expectations will be lifted.
Focus on three components. Energy rebounds about 2.5%, airfares and hotels will follow fuel prices; if rent and owners' equivalent rent remain around 0.22, it indicates stickiness hasn't dissipated; if used cars and apparel continue to decline, the core can be contained. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both put the core around 0.22, Citibank is a bit lower at 0.18. A difference of one decimal point changes the direction of the dollar and US Treasury yields.
Market reactions are straightforward. If the core exceeds expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields rise, gold and Bitcoin are first to be drained, and crude oil may go even crazier in the short term; if the core is close to 0.2%, it will fluctuate back and forth without a clear trend; if the core is significantly below 0.2%, risk assets have a chance to rebound. Don't place orders prematurely assuming "definite rate hike" or "definite hold"; wait for the numbers, look at the core and rent first, then act. $BTC $ETH 🚨 CPI Released!!!
CPI Year-over-Year: 3.4%, in line with expectations
CPI Month-over-Month: 0.4%, in line with expectations
Core CPI Month-over-Month: 0.3%, exceeding expectations!
On the surface, both CPI figures meet expectations, but core inflation is clearly more stubborn. Coupled with yesterday's similarly hot PPI, the inflation backdrop really looks quite unfavorable.
Well, this is great 😂
Market expectations for a rate cut in September continue to be suppressed, while expectations for a rate hike are heating up even more!
Next week’s Fed move, it really looks like it’s coming……
September rate hike expectations: fully loaded!!!$PONS CP2 data is very positive, no hope for a US dollar interest rate hike1. Core CPI rose month-over-month, indicating a slower pace of inflation decline, leading the market to lower expectations for rate cuts: the Federal Reserve will not cut rates quickly or significantly.
2. Market interpretation: hawkish bias.
- Negative impact: U.S. stocks, gold, cryptocurrencies (weaker rate cut expectations, making the dollar more likely to strengthen)
- Positive impact: U.S. dollar.CPI bombshell! Core monthly rate exceeds expectations, BTC at 76000 is hanging by a thread, who dares to catch the falling knife tonight?
Brothers, the data just came out, core CPI monthly rate is 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, hitting a new high since May this year. Rate cuts are completely off the table, not raising rates would be like burning incense.
Don't be fooled by the annual rate of 2.4% hitting a new low since 2021, the monthly rebound is the real killer — inflation is far from eradicated, giving the Fed even more reason to stay hawkish.
BTC is now struggling around 76000, technically extremely oversold, but it has no strength to rebound. Plus, as I mentioned the day before yesterday, altcoin OI surpasses BTC, leverage piled up like a mountain. With this data out, if the market can't hold, a chain liquidation could happen anytime.
My judgment: short-term bearish, definitely not catching the falling knife. With inflation data exceeding expectations, the market will most likely reprice rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets. How much do you earn delivering takeout in a day? Don't feed the dog traders. Wait for this BTC liquidation wave to finish and for stabilization signals before making a move.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 CPI 0.4% MoM, expected 0.4%
CPI Core 0.3% MoM, expected 0.2%
CPI 3.4% YoY, expected 3.4%
CPI Core 2.4% YoY, expected 2.4%
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Today's pain trade might not be bad news it might be being positioned wrong for good news. Shorts have taken the liquidation hit all week, funding's barely positive, sentiment's cooling not stretched. If CPI comes in soft, the crowded short trade is what gets hurt, not the longs everyone's worried about.The latest earnings from Oracle and Adobe are sending a much clearer message to the market: AI alone is no longer enough to drive a stock higher. Investors want proof that AI is translating into contracts, revenue, cash flow and sustainable growth. 🔹 Oracle $ORCL Oracle delivered a powerful Q1 FY2027. Revenue reached $19.3B, up 30% YoY, while total cloud revenue climbed 62% to $11.6B. The real standout was Cloud Infrastructure: 🚀 $7.4B revenue 🚀 +121% YoY 🚀 $664B remaining performance obligaOn the Eve of the CPI Release｜Conspiracy Theory Speculation: The U.S. Treasury's Debt Script
With the CPI about to be revealed, the market is circulating a rather imaginative speculation about the U.S. debt operation. Let's take a look at this conjectured logic behind the U.S. debt maneuver.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently made frequent public statements. Some believe there is an internal strategy within the Treasury aimed at lowering the real debt burden of outstanding government bonds. The scale of U.S. federal debt is enormous, and long-term bonds carry a heavy interest burden. If the Treasury takes advantage of the sharp drop in long-term bond prices to repurchase and retire them, it would be equivalent to settling a huge amount of long-term debt at a discount. The same amount of U.S. dollars can buy bonds with a higher face value, directly reducing interest expenses for decades to come.
To push long-term bonds down to cheap prices, inflation data needs to strengthen, boosting market expectations for rate hikes. As interest rates rise, long-term bond prices will come under downward pressure. The full conjectured script is: deliberately tolerate inflation, maintain high interest rate expectations, use market sell-offs to push down long-term bond prices; once the Treasury's repurchase task is largely completed, switch to a narrative of rate cuts. On the surface, this operation allows the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to perform their respective roles while preserving the Federal Reserve's policy independence under Chair Powell.
Of course, this is just a market conspiracy theory speculation, not an established fact. In reality, the Treasury's primary responsibility is to ensure the smooth issuance of government bonds. Artificially creating inflation is extremely costly; uncontrolled inflation would undermine the dollar's credibility and carry social and political costs.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Bitcoin is under pressure as the market enters a sensitive zone ahead of the Fed meeting on 15–16/9. After PPI exceeded expectations, the focus shifts to the US CPI: if inflation continues to persist, yields and the USD may maintain pressure on risk assets, including BTC and altcoins. Notably, the reaction of capital flows is worth mentioning. BTC, ETH, and many altcoins are diverging instead of moving in the same direction. This indicates that the market lacks a clear consensus on risk appetite. For crypto at this moment, the story is not c$WLD's rise this week is not due to the revival of AI narratives; it's because a company actually put real money on the line!
Eightco Holdings (Nasdaq ticker OCTO) announced a $250 million private placement, making $WLD its primary reserve asset. BitMine added another $20 million. After the deal closes on September 11, the company will be renamed "ORBS."
A publicly listed company has put a cryptocurrency on its balance sheet — that's far more substantial than any KOL hype, okay!!
The fundamentals are also supporting this: in the past week, 530,000 new verified users were added, the largest increase in months, with a total of over 33.5 million verified.
But the price hasn't kept up: after hitting 0.5058 on September 8, it steadily fell to 0.4006, dropping 2.57% today, breaking below the MA20 (0.399) and the 60-day high of 0.5058.
In my opinion, the company's coin purchase is news, not sustained buying pressure. We need to see how much they bought and whether it's locked. 0.395 is short-term support; today's low already touched 0.3946. If it can't hold above 0.45, it will still be a rebound.#10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo operations fail to stop yield rise
The US Treasury implemented long-term bond repo operations, with a repo scale of $5.187 billion this time, not reaching the upper limit, resulting in limited support for the bond market. The 10-year US Treasury yield continues to surge, approaching the 5% mark. Coupled with previously strong PPI inflation data, the market worries about inflation recurrence, and the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations remain high.
US Treasury yields rising is bearish for non-interest-bearing assets like gold. As the risk-free rate rises, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, combined with a stronger dollar, gold prices face short-term pressure.
The crypto market also bears liquidity tightening pressure. Currently, BTC is quoted around $77,380, slightly up by 0.17%. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset, and its price is very sensitive to liquidity changes. With rising US Treasury yields, funds prefer stable US Treasuries and may withdraw from the crypto market, increasing short-term correction risks for $BTC. The market's focus will next be on CPI data. If inflation cools and rate hike expectations fall, US Treasury yields may decline, allowing room for rebounds in gold and Bitcoin. However, if inflation remains strong and the 10-year US Treasury yield stabilizes above 5%, risk assets will continue to face pressure. US Treasury yields will be the core macro theme influencing gold and crypto market trends in the near term.If the rate hike is implemented in September, followed by a gradual economic slowdown and inflation no longer heating up again, gold may usher in a recovery window after the full digestion of tightening expectations. The recovery in the market requires two major preconditions: first, the market's expectations for continued rate hikes stabilize and decline; second, the suppressive forces from real interest rates and the US dollar index marginally ease. On this basis, if gold ETF holdings rise simultaneously and incremental funds enter the market, the capital foundation for the recovery will be more solid.
However, it should not be simply understood as "the rate hike implementation means all bad news is priced in." If inflation remains high and real interest rates continue to rise, even if this rate hike has been executed, gold prices will still face pressure, and one should not blindly bottom-fish to bet on a reversal.
Looking at the longer time dimension, central banks around the world continue to purchase gold, global foreign exchange reserves diversify, combined with geopolitical conflicts and the demand for fiat currency credit hedging brought by US fiscal expansion, these remain the core medium- to long-term support logic for gold. This round of gold price correction does not overturn these underlying logics, but short-term volatility will significantly increase.
In practical terms, those who already hold gold positions can review their portfolios against their asset allocation targets; those planning to build new positions should prioritize dollar-cost averaging and phased buying to reduce timing risk and gradually build gold exposure that matches their risk tolerance.
Mapping this to the crypto market, the logic can be interconnected. If rate hike expectations peak and fall, and real interest rates decline, BTC and other non-yielding hard assets will also welcome an improved macro environment. But if inflation remains stubborn, even after one rate hike, the high interest rate environment will continue #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 After breaking through the $80,000 mark, Bitcoin did not choose to continue its upward push but instead gently pulled back to near $78,000 for consolidation. Such a trend is not uncommon after breaking through a key psychological price level; it seems more like the market is digesting earlier gains rather than signaling a trend reversal. Meanwhile, Ethereum's performance has been relatively steady, firmly holding above $2,400, providing a buffer for the structural health of the entire market. The truly noteworthy highlights lie in the details of capital flows. During this correction, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of about $314.3 million on August 25, while Ethereum ETFs attracted about $179.8 million. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin ETFs had cumulative inflows of $1.92 billion, while Ethereum ETFs had earned $697 million. Put together, these numbers paint a very clear picture: although prices are taking a breather, institutional funds have not stopped. This combination of "price correction and capital inflow" often reveals changes in the market participant structure. Short-term traders may choose to cash in above $80,000, but long-term allocation funds seem to be using this rare volatility window to gradually build positions at relatively calm prices. ETFs, as compliant and transparent channels, have inflow data that acts as the most direct thermometer of institutional sentiment. When the rhythm of such funds briefly diverges from price trends, it usually means the market's bottom support is quietly being strengthened. However, we also need to maintain a holdInterpreting CPI should not rely solely on year-over-year figures; the focus should be on the month-over-month core CPI excluding food and energy, tracking the stickiness of housing and service prices, and assessing whether energy price increases have spread to all categories of goods. PPI is used to observe upstream production costs and can also be used to infer components of the PCE price index. A single year-over-year decline is easily affected by base effects; only continuous month-over-month trends can truly determine the extent of easing inflationary pressure. In July, overall PCE was up 3.7% year-over-year, core PCE 3.3%, with monthly data already showing marginal improvement.
If CPI again exceeds expectations, the market will raise rate hike expectations, and gold will continue to face short-term pressure; if inflation continues to cool, concerns about tightening will ease, providing conditions for gold price recovery. Oil prices and geopolitical factors are two-way forces: geopolitical conflicts bring safe-haven buying, supporting gold; but energy price increases push inflation higher, forcing real interest rates and the dollar up, which in turn suppresses gold prices.
This rate decision meeting requires simultaneous attention to three things: the rate decision itself, the dot plot rate forecast, and the post-meeting policy guidance.
Mapping this to the crypto market, the logic is similar to gold. Hot CPI data will push up rate hike expectations and real interest rates, putting liquidity pressure on interest-free assets like BTC and ETH; cooling inflation will ease macroeconomic pressure. Geopolitical safe-haven demand under a high interest rate environment is unlikely to be an independent driver for crypto asset rallies. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 My preferred CPI data combination is:
Overall year-on-year 3.4%, month-on-month 0.4%;
Core year-on-year 2.4%, month-on-month 0.2%.
This indicates an acceleration in overall price increases, but the core remains relatively moderate.
The conclusion is that the overall data meets or falls short of expectations (a positive market rebound).
Additionally, if tonight's CPI data is strong, the expectation for a rate hike in September will further increase, and Wash may not withstand the pressure.
Moreover, oil prices started rising sharply in September, with August being relatively moderate; the expected value is already much higher than the previous one, making it unlikely to exceed expectations.
$BTC $XAU The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the 5% threshold, and repo operations are failing to stop the yield from rising.
BISENT tripled the repo scale, but the 10-year US Treasury yield still hit a three-year intraday high. The market simply isn't buying it—60 billion in repo is like a pea shooter fighting a tank against hundreds of billions in weekly bond issuance.
$BTC has been hovering around 77,000 this week, seemingly not dropping much, but the macro pressure is real. The 10-year yield is nearing 4.97%, with risk-free returns almost at 5%. Holding assets that don't generate cash flow has too high an opportunity cost. Institutional funds are doing a simple calculation: buy US Treasuries to lock in 5%, or hold BTC and endure volatility?
$ETH is even worse, unable to hold above 2,300. Wolfe Research directly gave a judgment—both BTC and ETH's downtrends are not over, and ETH might even fall below 2,000.
Tonight's CPI is a hurdle. If core CPI exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September will jump from 61% to over 70%, and the 76,000 support for BTC will really be in jeopardy. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the data to come out.
#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 @OKX中文 我不会把这三个资产简单看成三笔相同的交易，它们更像是观察市场情绪的三个不同窗口。 🟠 $BTC → 判断市场方向 目前 $BTC 在 $77.1K 附近。 它更适合用来判断整体风险偏好是在增强，还是资金开始趋向防守。 🔵 $ETH → 观察资金参与度 $ETH 目前约 $2.44K。 如果 ETH 能重新获得成交量和资金支持，通常意味着市场参与正在从 BTC 向更广泛的生态扩散。 🟢 $SOL → 衡量风险偏好 $SOL 目前约 $99.5。 SOL 的表现更能反映交易者是否愿意进一步承担风险、寻找更高弹性的资产。 有意思的是，最近 ETF 资金已经出现分化：9月9日 BTC 现货 ETF 净流出约 $120.2M，而 ETH 和 SOL ETF 分别录得约 $34.7M 与 $11.2M 净流入。 这并不意味着资金已经全面转向山寨，而更像是资金开始出现选择性轮动。 所以我的观察框架很简单： BTC = 市场环境 ETH = 资金参与 SOL = 风险偏好 三种资产，三种信号。 现在真正重要的不是谁涨得最快，而是谁能在成交量和资金参与同步增加的情况下持续走强。 另外，宏观环境仍然The recent decline in gold essentially reflects the direct transmission of policy expectations to asset prices. At the Jackson Hole conference, Federal Reserve's Waller emphasized price stability and policy discipline, prompting the market to reassess the monetary tightening path. The August nonfarm payroll data further confirmed employment resilience, with a significant rebound in new jobs, unemployment holding at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month, and weekly hours increasing to 34.4 hours. Employment did not show significant weakening, greatly reducing the Fed's urgency to quickly pivot to easing due to employment deterioration. Instead, inflation levels have become the core metric for policy decisions.
After the reversal of expectations, capital began to reallocate. The market raised future interest rate expectations, boosting the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, while gold experienced capital outflows. Since gold itself does not generate interest, rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, effectively making holders "pay rent" daily, directly suppressing gold prices. Intraday, gold's decline even exceeded 2%.
However, a single month's employment improvement does not equate to sustained economic overheating. Stronger short-term interest rate constraints do not mean gold's reserve allocation and fiat currency credit hedging value have completely disappeared. The policy outcome still depends on a series of subsequent economic data. Waller previously stated that if inflation continues to improve, rates will remain unchanged; if inflation improvement stalls, he supports rate hikes.
Nonfarm payrolls only amplified the risk of rate hikes and did not lock in the September policy decision. The future direction of gold depends on CPI and other inflation data, observing whether the market will continue to revise the rate path upward. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 BTC $77,000
I started to buy back the positions I reduced earlier
BTC has now returned to around $76,800–$77,000.
This drop was actually not unexpected.
Oil price $CL previously surged to around $110, the US 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, and the market's pricing for a 25BP rate hike in September once reached nearly 70%. Yesterday's PPI did not provide much comfort to the market.
But I need to make one thing clear:
Higher macro risks do not mean BTC has already entered a new bear market.
I reduced leverage and shrank positions earlier precisely to wait for data risks to push the price down before buying again. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike this month given by CME is 69.4%. But note, before the PPI data, this probability was only just over 60%, and when PPI exceeded expectations, it surged nearly 10 percentage points.
Regarding CPI, the market expects the overall CPI month-on-month in August to jump sharply from 0.1% to 0.4%, mainly driven by energy prices. But the core CPI month-on-month expectation is only about 0.2%. This is interesting—the overall inflation is being forcibly pushed up by oil prices, but core inflation is actually cooling down.
For the crypto community, this data combination is quite subtle. If the core CPI can really hold steady at 0.2% or even lower, the probability of a rate hike will likely retreat from around 70%, allowing the market to catch a breath and rebound. But if the core CPI also exceeds expectations, the rate hike probability will surge above 75%, and the BTC price at 77,000 might not hold.
On the market, BTC has already dropped from 82,000 down to around 77,000, a deep enough fall that technically calls for a correction. However, the capital inflow is insufficient, so the correction strength is weak.
My outlook: If CPI is favorable, BTC could rebound short-term to around 79,000-80,000; if unfavorable, it could quickly drop to 75,000 or even 71,000. For ETH, the upper resistance is in the 2,485-2,510 range, and support is seen at 2,100-2,200.
Before tonight’s data release, control your positions well and avoid heavy bets on direction.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $BTC $ETH ETF outflows continue, while 13F private-equity exposure rose 7.5% QoQ.
$ETH is attracting interest for its staking yield, while $BTC remains allocation-driven.
With Treasury yields still elevated, I’m staying patient until flows clearly converge.
#BTCSpotETFOutflows $ETH 【Real-time Monitoring】After the bears pushed the RSI to an extreme zone at 19:00, they did not follow through to break below 2450; on the contrary, the price was continuously pulled back, KDJ formed a golden cross at a low level, and RSI kept recovering. This indicates there is indeed support around 2450.
Short-term stop of decline: evidence already exists.
Short-term bullish reversal: not yet.
Confirmed bullish reversal: at least stabilize above 2464–2465 again.
Upward targets: 2459 → 2465 → 2470 → 2480.
Downward targets: 2450 → 2440 → 2430/2423 → 2404.
There are still two hurdles.
First hurdle: 2458–2459
MA10 is at 2458.75.
If it can stabilize above 2459 next, it means this rebound is more than just a minor correction at the MA5 level.
Second hurdle: 2464–2465
MA20 and the middle band of BOLL are both at 2464.42.
This is the real bull-bear dividing line on the 15-minute chart now.
If after the data release the price moves up and quickly:
2459 → 2465 → stabilizes
I would consider this round of selling before CPI mainly as risk-off ahead of the event, not a new trend down.
Then the upper targets reopen:
2470/2471 → 2478/2480
The downside is also very clear
The lower band of BOLL has already reached: 2449.8
2449–2450 = the near-term 15-minute critical survival line. GM ☀️ $BTC and $ETH remain the key assets I’m watching, but I’m not assuming the market goes straight up from here. I expect more consolidation and volatility over the next few days. $BTC → $77K–$78K is the key near-term zone. If it holds, bulls can attempt a move back toward $80K–$82K. But if selling pressure accelerates, I’d watch $71K–$68K as a deeper demand zone rather than panic-selling into weakness. $ETH → $2.35K–$2.36K remains important support. A reclaim of $2.50K–$2.56K would strengtheToday's share
Oracle AI cloud surges 121%, but chip stocks crash first as a sign of respect
Oracle's earnings report exploded—Q1 revenue of 19.35 billion exceeded expectations, cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121% year-over-year, remaining performance obligations surged to 664 billion, and after-hours trading rose over 9% at one point. Jensen Huang added: AI infrastructure spending is expected to reach 3-4 trillion by 2030.
But the market didn't buy it. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 2.66%, Intel fell over 5%, AMD dropped over 3%, SK Hynix ADR fell over 5%, Micron and SanDisk dropped over 4%. Japan and South Korea opened continuing to crash, Kioxia down 6.6%.
The logic is very fragmented: the AI demand story is getting stronger, but chip stocks are having their valuations cut. PPI exceeded expectations + oil prices broke $100, the probability of a rate hike soared to 71.3%, high-valuation growth stocks are hit first.
My thinking: Oracle's data shows AI capital expenditure hasn't stopped, and the long-term logic for storage and computing power remains intact. But short-term rate hike expectations are pressing down, chip stocks will be very volatile. Wait for CPI to settle, then see if the market cuts valuations first or recognizes the logic first. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows This time I will treat ETH as a position for altcoin market trading.
$ETH is currently around $2460.
My reasons for buying ETH are completely different from $BTC.
For BTC, I look at the overall market direction; for ETH, I care more about whether, after the CPI risk passes, the market turns risk-on again and capital flows from BTC back to ETH and altcoins.
Previously, ETH spot ETFs have already shown clear capital inflows, and currently about one-third of ETH supply is staked.
So when ETH returns to above 2400, I won’t treat it as a simple rebound trade.
I will first buy half.
Because if tonight’s CPI is lower than expected and interest rate trades suddenly reverse, high-beta mainstream coins like ETH might not give much time to buy slowly. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows This time I will treat ETH as a position for altcoin market trading.
$ETH is currently around $2460.
My reasons for buying ETH are completely different from $BTC.
For BTC, I look at the overall market direction; for ETH, I care more about whether, after the CPI risk passes, the market turns risk-on again and capital flows from BTC back to ETH and altcoins.
Previously, ETH spot ETFs have already shown clear capital inflows, and currently about one-third of ETH supply is staked.
So when ETH returns to above 2400, I won’t treat it as a simple rebound trade.
I will first buy half.
Because if tonight’s CPI is lower than expected and interest rate trades suddenly reverse, high-beta mainstream coins like ETH might not give much time to buy slowly. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows #PPI and CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days The US August PPI data was released first, showing divergence. Overall PPI year-on-year at 5.4% exceeded expectations, with Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushing up energy prices, further increasing inflation pressure; core PPI excluding energy and food month-on-month was 0.2%, slightly below expectations.
Once the data came out, the market sharply raised expectations for Fed rate hikes, with CME showing the probability of a September rate hike soaring to 70%, and funds betting on at least one rate hike before the end of October. The market awaits this Friday's CPI release; these two major inflation data points will directly determine the policy direction of the September FOMC meeting.
The asset side reacted quickly. Interest-free assets like gold were the first to come under pressure, with spot gold plunging sharply, once falling below $4330, and the US dollar index returning above 99. Stronger rate hike expectations raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, suppressing gold prices.
$BTC is also under pressure. Crypto assets are high-risk assets, extremely sensitive to liquidity changes. Rate hike expectations represent tightening market liquidity and rising risk-free yields, causing funds to flow out of the highly volatile crypto market, increasing short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin and other coins.
Next, CPI will be the watershed for the market. If core CPI falls, rate hike expectations will cool down, and gold and the crypto market are expected to recover; however, inflation risks brought by oil prices remain. These two days' inflation data will dominate the short-term market trend.$OKB
Can the platform token develop an independent trend in a risk market?
With continuous net outflows from BTC ETFs, and the US PPI and oil prices pushing up interest rate pressures, platform tokens will first be affected by the overall risk appetite.
OKB also has independent variables such as platform activities, token utility, and supply arrangements. If the price remains stable when the market is weak, and platform transactions and user activity improve, it indicates that its own demand is absorbing selling pressure.
If there is no business data support and the strength is only formed by short-term rallies, beware of rapid pullbacks caused by thin liquidity. Price synchronization with platform data constitutes effective confirmation.