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$TRUMP TRUMP 2.5 — down 4%, team dumping weighs on price.
Rallied to 3.60 on fake new-token rumors, now fading back to 2.50.
The real pressure: team-linked wallets moved 3.837M tokens (~$9.33M) to OKX yesterday, then sold 1.1M at $2.68 avg this morning for 2.94M USDC. Over $10M in total selling hitting the market.
Eric Trump already called the new token rumors "completely untrue" and warned of scams.
Key levels: #BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap U.S. Treasury yields remain high, yet gold has surged back near a three-month high: What is the money protecting against?
Spot gold is currently around $4620–4640 per ounce from various real-time sources, having returned to the three-month high zone. Last week, gold prices rose over 5% for the week, marking a third consecutive weekly gain, with Friday’s peak reaching about $4632.
The background for this rally is clear.
The U.S. Treasury increased the repurchase scale of some 10–30 year Treasuries from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, temporarily easing pressure on long bonds, but the market has not eased concerns over the $40 trillion debt and fiscal deficit.
The U.S. dollar has instead continued to weaken, currently still near multi-month lows.
This creates a very special combination for gold:
Long-term yields are not low, yet funds are still willing to buy non-interest-bearing gold.
This indicates the market is simultaneously trading inflation, fiscal risk, and dollar purchasing power.
The technical side is also cooperating. After gold broke above the 200-day moving average around $4513 last week, buying accelerated noticeably, and $4600 has shifted from a resistance zone to a new battleground.
There are two catalysts ahead that cannot be ignored:
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will speak this week at Jackson Hole, and the U.S. will release PCE inflation data.
If the dollar continues to weaken and fiscal concerns persist, gold has the chance to test higher levels; if PCE heats up again and pushes up rate hike expectations, this three-week rally will face its first significant pressure test. #Kashkari says U.S. debt is not failing, can long bond repos fix the root problem?Bitcoin surged more than 20% last week, marking the strongest weekly performance in 24 years, reaching a high close to $79,600.
On one hand, this was driven by U.S. macro factors: U.S. Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened, lifting both Bitcoin and gold. On the other hand, ETF funds poured in aggressively, with a net inflow of $2.6 billion over the week, signaling institutional capital entering the market.
However! After such a big rally, don’t blindly chase the upside. Keep a close eye on three major events this week: PCE inflation data, Nvidia’s earnings report, and the Jackson Hole Fed speech. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
These events could very well determine whether this strong rally can continue.
The more frenzied the market, the more you should avoid preemptively betting on direction. Wait for the news to unfold and observe the market’s real reaction before making a move. Why can the Treasury's buyback operation catalyze an ETF explosion, and why does the market not believe it?
Last Wednesday, the Treasury announced it would double the scale of its long-term bond buybacks, raising the single transaction cap from $2 billion to $4 billion. After the news broke, the 30-year US Treasury yield dropped sharply, $BTC rose more than 23% for the week, $ETH increased by 31%, and spot ETFs attracted $2.6 billion in one week, marking the strongest week since 2026.
But looking closely, this matter is far more complicated than it appears.
Why did the market initially buy into it?
The Treasury’s signal is clear: the Treasury is willing to actively manage long-term interest rates. Although this is not QE, the effect is very similar—exchanging short-term Treasury bills for long-term bonds, pushing down discount rates, which naturally opens up valuation space for risk assets.
More critically, this move reignited the "dollar depreciation trade." When the government intervenes in the bond market, the market immediately questions: can fiscal discipline still be trusted? Is the dollar’s credit still stable? As a result, money starts flowing out of the dollar and Treasuries, rushing into assets with capped supply like BTC and gold. Last week, BTC’s correlation with gold surged above 0.5, while its correlation with the S&P 500 dropped close to zero—it’s increasingly resembling "digital gold."
Additionally, BTC had been consolidating for six weeks with a large short position built up. Once policy catalyzed the market, roughly $4.5 billion of shorts were liquidated, and passive buying pushed prices higher. Spot ETFs, as the most convenient and compliant institutional channel, naturally became the main battleground for capital inflows.
In short, the buyback ignited the fire, the dollar depreciation narrative fueled it, the short squeeze fanned the flames, and the ETF capital inflows prove institutions are genuinely putting money in.
Why does the market not believe it anymore?
Last week, the 30-year Treasury yield almost fully retraced its decline, but the dollar fell, gold rose, and BTC did not retreat. Asset prices and bond yields moved in opposite directions—this itself indicates the market does not believe the Treasury can keep long-term rates suppressed.
The core reason is simple: this is not QE. It merely adjusts the debt maturity structure without creating new base money or reducing government financing needs. In a $32 trillion to $40 trillion bond market, a single $4 billion buyback is less than 0.05%. The DWS fixed income head put it bluntly: "Throwing tissues into a tsunami."
A deeper issue is the erosion of policy credibility. This buyback came only two weeks after the August 5 quarterly refinancing plan, with no prior warning from the Treasury, abruptly breaking the "regular and predictable" principle maintained since the 1970s. In the short term, it saved about $200 million in financing costs on the 20-year Treasury auction; but in the long term, once the market doubts the Treasury’s strategic intent, future Treasury purchases will demand higher risk premiums. A tactical win but a potential strategic loss.
Deutsche Bank’s Akiki Osamu hit the nail on the head: "The Treasury can buy back its own bonds, but it cannot buy back the dollar."
What really matters
This Treasury operation is essentially a tactical "circuit breaker"—it can temporarily slow selling but cannot change the fundamentals of high deficits, stubborn inflation, and continuously supplied debt.
The real watershed will be Fed Chair Waller’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The Treasury can influence the debt maturity structure, but only the Fed can anchor inflation expectations. Whether ETF funds continue to flow in ultimately depends on whether the Treasury’s "circuit breaker" can be supported by Waller’s "anchor."
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
"Kashkari Insists US Debt Has Not Failed: How Does the Treasury's Single $4 Billion Buyback Inject Liquidity into the Market?"
As the 30-year US Treasury yield just surged to a high of 5.25%, Bitcoin stepped onto $78,000.
Kashkari firmly insists the bond market is not being bailed out, yet the Treasury doubled the single long-term bond buyback from $2 billion to $4 billion.
All hawkish talk, but behind the scenes it's real cash fiscal hidden liquidity injection.
The Fed holds firm at a high 3.75% interest rate, while the Treasury, pressured by debt interest, uses deposits directly to buy bonds.
Macro hedging and currency depreciation buying have built a support base at the $77,000 level, with anti-inflation funds completing a full turnover.
Spot base positions hold firm above 60%, leverage compressed below 2x, with stop-loss welded below $74,500. $BTC $TRUMP brothers, remember one iron rule: never touch any coin related to the Trump family.
Last week, the TRUMP team transferred 3.83 million coins (9.33 million dollars) to OKX, then started offloading through one-sided liquidity in the early morning, already selling 1.1 million coins for 2.94 million USDC.
The pattern is always the same: first release news to generate attention → pump a wave → then the team starts dumping hard. A country's president doing this kind of operation, honestly, is even more ruthless than a market maker.
The ultimate fate of coins like $TRUMP and $WLFI is zero. The team still holds plenty of coins; every pump is just an opportunity for you to exit.
Remember: if the market maker of a coin is the project team itself, and the project team is politicians, think about who your opponents are? How can you possibly win?
Stay away from Trump family tokens; this is a lesson bought with real money.
#TRUMP #WLFI #AvoidPitfalls #CuttingLeeks $ETH is rallying enthusiastically, but one development aspect is worth monitoring: Ethereum researchers are rushing to close the zkEVM security gap before December. The better.codes competition benchmarks Ethereum's abstract security goals against actual verification, but there are still coverage gaps.
This is not negative news; it is precisely Ethereum's moat. Other chains fix security incidents after the fact, while Ethereum proactively offers bounties to find vulnerabilities. Some developers say this is like stress-testing a house, reinforcing it before an earthquake hits. Security investment is an implicit value; no one prices it in a bull market, but in a bear market, it is lifesaving.
Other on-chain data is also healthy: median Gas fee is $0.055, with nearly one million active addresses. No issues on-chain; problems lie in sentiment and leverage.
Conclusion: bullish in the medium term. 2,370 is short-term support. Security patches landing and ETF inflows are two major supports. Blindly dollar-cost average below 2,200, and take profits in batches above $2,500.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 If Anthropic files for an IPO, what I most want to see is not whether its final valuation can catch up with SpaceX, but a set of very realistic data:
How much money does it actually cost to burn for every 1 dollar of revenue earned?
In the past, it was difficult to value large model companies because private market disclosures were limited. We know the models are getting stronger, but it's hard to truly compare revenue quality, reasoning costs, customer structure, and cash burn.
The biggest significance of the IPO is to lay all these things on the table.
Then the market can finally compare:
How much does Anthropic's gross margin differ from traditional SaaS companies? Can AI revenue growth cover computing power investment? How stable are enterprise customers?
Even the entire large model businesses like OpenAI and Google Gemini might gain new valuation benchmarks.
So I believe the greatest value of Anthropic going public may not be creating a new AI star stock.
It could become the first public valuation yardstick for the entire large model industry.
AI has been talking about the future for years, and now the capital market is finally starting to seriously do the math.
And I have always believed: a true sign of an industry's maturity is when the story can ultimately be verified by numbers.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX 近期灰度提交Zcash ETF申请，市场炒作情绪高涨，很多人幻想隐私币能复刻比特币、以太坊ETF的暴涨路径。但必须戳破这个幻觉：无论机构怎么包装、怎么提交文件，ZEC作为隐私币，要真正通过合规ETF审批，存在底层技术、监管逻辑、合规机制三重不可调和的矛盾，纸面申请≠实质获批，短期情绪炒作≠长期合规落地。下面从核心矛盾、监管红线、现实悖论、市场风险四方面把逻辑讲透。 一、底层价值直接对立：ETF要求全链路可追溯，隐私币核心是交易可隐匿 ETF产品从诞生起，监管就要求底层资产托管透明、交易链路可溯源、资金流向可监控、满足KYC/AML反洗钱、反恐怖融资。比特币、以太坊能获批，是因为链上数据完全公开、地址可追踪、资金流向能被链上分析工具完整还原，托管机构必须把资产放在公开可查地址，接受监管随时核验。 而$ZEC 的核心价值，正是通过零知识证明实现屏蔽地址（z-address）交易——隐藏发送方、接收方、交易金额。要合规托管，Coinbase等持牌托管机构只能把ZEC放在公开透明地址（t-address），完全不能用原生屏蔽隐私功能——等于把ZEC最核心的隐私价值直接废掉： • 用透明地址托管$ETH consolidates at a high level, more intriguing than a strong pull-up
ETH rose nearly 30% in a week, reaching a high of $2,500 before retreating to around $2,420 to consolidate. It doesn’t crash when rising, nor panic when falling; this pattern is healthier than another big bullish candle — chips are changing hands, sentiment is cooling down, and building momentum is more valuable than rushing to the top.
The capital structure of this rebound needs to be analyzed separately: about $1.2 billion in short liquidations acted as a catalyst, while ETF net inflows exceeding $680 million in a single week were the real fuel. One is a price-level impulse, the other a capital-level qualitative change; their natures are completely different.
The key now is not whether ETH can retest $2,500, but whether capital is starting to flow internally within the ecosystem. AAVE rose over 10%, UNI about 5%, which is no coincidence — as ETH strengthens, on-chain lending and trading demand benefit first. If this transmission continues, the market is shifting from a single asset rally to sector-wide diffusion. AAVE is the flexible offensive position, UNI is the sentiment thermometer.
But the iron rule is that chasing laggards hurts more than leading assets. The direction can be optimistic, but position size must not get out of control. 🔥This time BTC is not a “risk asset rebound,” but has been re-priced as a “hard asset in a debt spiral.”
The driving force has shifted from “rate cut expectations + ETF debut” to “US debt credit + non-sovereign scarcity.”
1) The Treasury’s buyback slightly leveraged long-term rates but didn’t rescue them. The Fed raised the long bond buyback cap from 2 billion to over 4 billion; the 10Y yield briefly fell but returned to 4.74% on 8/24, 30Y at 5.28%, Brent crude at 92.7; the total US debt officially surpassed 40 trillion, two years earlier than expected. Bridgewater’s Dalio publicly endorsed: “Under full fiscal stress, BTC and similar scarce non-sovereign assets are excellent hedges” — the weight of this statement is on a completely different level than the 2021 “institutions buying a little.”
2) The BTC/gold ratio is strengthening, indicating a narrative shift. On 8/24, BTC to gold ratio reached 16.73 ounces, the highest since May; Strive CEO Matt Cole directly said, “A double breakout against gold and the dollar = end of the bear market.” In the last cycle, BTC was 99% correlated with the Nasdaq; this cycle it’s 94% correlated with gold — it’s moving from “high beta tech stock” toward “scarce settlement layer” halfway.
$BTC Based on today's operations and trends of the $CARDS CARDS token, it reminded me of at least two previous bull and bear market cycles I experienced. Back then, you could make some money in the bear market, but not in the bull market. The main reason was not knowing when to sell, and the core issue behind not knowing when to sell was "greed":
1. Blindly injecting faith:
I was based on value investing, always thinking that a coin I thoroughly researched was a very precious opportunity. I thought this coin was very valuable, which is the so-called "injecting faith." Actually, even though there were many unrealized profits, you didn't know how to take profits, which led to everything falling back in the end. So, the "value" mentioned here is actually not withstandable under scrutiny. Not to mention your small coin, even Bitcoin's value is still being debated nowadays. Therefore, all value is a false demand.
2. Fantasizing about high multiples and small market cap traps:
Always thinking a coin can multiply 5 or 10 times, and then always buying some small market cap coins, which is also very bad. Small market cap means very high risk. For example, coins like gear and umee that I bought before have already been delisted. On the contrary, the coins I can make money from are PUMP and morpho, both with market caps within the top 150. $ETH continues to benefit from ETF flows and a broader recovery in risk appetite, showing stronger relative strength and higher elasticity than $BTC . Technically, ETH’s recovery trend remains intact. However, after such a sharp catch-up rally, positioning can become increasingly crowded. A controlled, low-volume pullback would be healthy and could allow the market to reset before another move higher. The key risk is $BTC. If Bitcoin loses strength, ETH’s higher beta could work both ways and am$BTC slowed its upward momentum after breaking above $77,000, with large spot buy orders and short-term profit-taking chips meeting head-on in this range.
The unrealized profit ratio of short-term holders on-chain surged sharply from 26.1% to 74.9%, and the net profit and loss of short-term positions flowing into exchanges in a single day soared to 28,600 coins, quickly revealing the pressure of cashing out high-position chips.
The wave of selling pressure is being absorbed by compliant capital channels. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net weekly inflow of about $2.6 billion, combined with liquidity expectations released by the expansion of US Treasury repo scale, providing strong buy-side support for the spot market.
This indicates that the market has shifted from being driven by short liquidations to being led by spot, with large off-exchange funds taking over short-term unrealized profit chips flowing out at high levels.
If the ETF's weekly inflow pace remains stable and the short-term profit-taking chips moved to exchanges fall back near the equilibrium line, spot buying will fully absorb the unrealized profit positions and push the price to firmly hold above the $78,000 resistance.
If institutional net inflows break down and short-term profit-taking continues concentrated selling, the accumulated unrealized profit sell-off will force the price to retrace to the $74,000 to $75,000 support zone to seek liquidity.
When spot ETF capital flow turns to a single-day net outflow, the existing liquidity absorption logic will be broken.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the spot ETF can maintain a single-day net inflow trend after digesting the initial wave of buying.
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%This BTC trade is a typical high-leverage directional bet, 20x long, profiting from trend continuation, enduring the amplified pullback pain.
Entry price 78,039.00, direction long, position size $99,996, quantity 1.28136.
This kind of trade looks fierce, but the biggest fear isn’t lack of profit; it’s when you get overconfident and see yourself as a god, then the market pulls back, wiping out unrealized gains and breaking your mindset first.
20x leverage isn’t for showing off courage, it’s to amplify your judgment. Right means fast profits, wrong means fast death, especially with volatile assets like BTC. No stop loss, stubborn holding, reckless adding to position basically just warms the exchange’s pockets.
Honestly watch the direction, don’t confuse emotions with logic. When your position is big, no matter how tough you talk, it won’t help.
Cut losses when you should, don’t wait for liquidation to make the decision for you. Brothers, today let's talk about a real beast that has truly outperformed the market — $HYPE.
Just checked the data, HYPE is currently around $78.6. It once surged past $83 this morning to hit a new all-time high. Although it has pulled back somewhat, it still boasts a gain of over 40% in the past 7 days. The cumulative gain this year is 214%, with a market cap surpassing $20 billion, having overtaken Dogecoin to break into the top nine by global market cap. Bitcoin has dropped 25% this year, ETH down 35% — but HYPE is partying solo.
🚀 What happened? Three fires ignited the all-time high
First fire: Trump’s shout-out ignited sentiment
On August 19, Trump stated at a White House press conference that the CFTC chairman is working to allow Hyperliquid to enter the US market in a "fully compliant and legal manner." The news caused HYPE to surge 17% that day, and the momentum continued over the following days, pushing it above $83.
Second fire: Explosive revenue and aggressive buybacks
Hyperliquid’s protocol revenue is incredibly strong. In the past 30 days, platform trading volume reached hundreds of billions of dollars, with annualized revenue around $600 million to $950 million. Since November 2024, the protocol has cumulatively repurchased and burned 462 million HYPE tokens, worth about $1.27 billion — equivalent to 99% of protocol fees being used for buybacks. From August 19 to 20 alone, buybacks exceeded $7.4 million.
Third fire: AQAv2 upgrade about to launch
On August 26, Hyperliquid will initiate the AQAv2 upgrade, channeling about 90% of the income generated from the platform’s over $5 billion USDC reserves into the buyback mechanism. Market insiders estimate this could add an extra $135 million to $160 million in annual buyback volume. This provides continuous buying support for the price.
📊 How’s the chart looking?
HYPE is currently in a price discovery phase, with no historical resistance levels above to reference.
· Current price: $78.6, intraday high $83+
· Upward targets: $85, $90, $100 — $100 is already being discussed
· Support below: $76-$78 (recent breakout zone), $74-$75 (first defense line), if broken, $70-$72 will be a deeper watch zone
Risk signals: Daily RSI is approaching 80, seriously overbought; open interest has broken $13 billion, a record high. If bullish momentum breaks, deleveraging and correction could be extremely severe.
💰 Viewpoint: Strong, but don’t go all-in at the all-time high
HYPE could be one of the strongest narratives in 2026: US regulatory access expectations + ultra-high revenue + continuous buyback and burn + product upgrades, four drivers pushing simultaneously. But the short-term rise from $50 to $83 is over 60%. Profit-taking after a surge is normal.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· Long: Wait for a pullback to $76-$78 to confirm stabilization, stop loss at $74, target $85-$90
· Short: Light short positions can be tried near $83-$85 if the rebound is weak, tight stop loss, target $78-$80 — but counter-trend top fishing carries significant risk
· Leverage: Within 3x, 5x volatility is like giving away money
· Risk warning: RSI overbought + OI at historic highs, corrections after rapid rises may be sudden and fierce
💰 Today’s P&L: No action on HYPE yet, waiting for a pullback. Let’s chat in the comments, did anyone catch this $83 new high? 👇
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 $SOL is not lacking narrative now, just a good price!
This governance vote is worth paying attention to: it proposes to increase the inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, expecting to reach a terminal inflation of 1.5% in about 3 years instead of the originally planned 6 years; it is estimated that about 18.9 million fewer SOL will be issued over the next 6 years, which corresponds to roughly a $1.5 billion reduction in supply based on the current model.
My view: this is generally positive for SOL's valuation in the long term, but in the short term, don't treat "deflation" as a pump button. The key cost is a decrease in staking rewards, pressure on profits for some small validators, and currently some institutions have publicly opposed this proposal.
In terms of strategy, you can accumulate SOL in batches when it pulls back to key support; if the vote passes and there is a volume breakout, add more positions; if the news is priced in and the price falls, then wait for a second opportunity.The foundation just finished pouring concrete, the rebar hasn't even been tied yet, and the construction team already dares to hang the renderings at the auction house. Anthropic's S-1 blueprint is spread out on the table; the confidential draft submitted on June 1st didn't even include the full load-bearing wall calculations, yet the market is already shouting a sky-high valuation of $750 billion — that's like drawing a Burj Khalifa on the plans while the geological survey shows the ground is all quicksand layers.
The Q2 revenue statement shows $1.15 billion in receipts, and by the end of July, the annualized revenue surprisingly surged to $65 billion. This figure is called "progress in appearance" in the construction industry. The client sees the grand scene reflected in the glass curtain wall, but the experts will open the construction logs to check the concealed works records — a net loss of $4.2 billion over more than half a year, which means every quarter liquid concrete is poured into the foundation pit, but it never fills the giant power-hungry server pump truck.
Computing power is the foundation pile of this building. Every round of large model training is like driving a new pile into a bottomless rock layer. The astronomical numbers on the cost list are crazier than the cost of dampers in supertall buildings. When enterprise clients treat data center cabinets like luxury apartments and scramble to buy them, the annual rental income of over $6 billion does look impressive, but as soon as the market price of computing resources fluctuates by one or two percentage points like rebar prices, the entire cash flow model has to be redone. Structural engineers all understand that the final height of a building is determined by its foundation, not by the sales office's scale model.
That financing amount, which may surpass SpaceX's record, is like the general contractor getting an extreme risk contract with a fixed total price. The $9.5 billion green shoe mechanism is just an extra safety rope on the scaffolding. The real suspense lies in the fact that the building hasn't topped out yet, the floor slabs have already developed thermal shrinkage cracks, and the design institute has sent a revision notice: after $4.2 billion in sunk costs, there is an even heavier pile foundation supplement list hanging over it.
The most tragic failures in architectural history are never about ugly designs, but discovering on the day of completion that the elevator can never reach the top floor. Claude's code stack is still being built layer by layer upwards, but the data center's foundation costs and the software layer's variable loads are meshing more and more brittlely; even a slight lateral wind pressure will make the entire floor slab emit muffled sounds before the rebar yields. The ultimate load-bearing capacity verification of the load-bearing walls hasn't been finally signed off, yet the market has already pushed the service load to about 80% of the yield strength.
If the concrete doesn't reach the design strength within seven days, no one is allowed to remove the formwork. This is an iron rule on the construction site. But what concerns me more is another drawing left on the chief engineer's desk — the report adjusting the operating profit back to positive, dated exactly the day the Anthropic firewall started leaking. The building is growing, but the soil beneath is being hollowed out by its own underground garage. Architectural history will remember this kind of structure; it has a special name: thin-shell cantilever, beautiful but astonishingly fragile. #anthropiciponears1. Storage chips have already surged significantly, and the stock price has priced in the good story of AI storage in advance. Now the price fully reflects optimistic expectations, so even slightly disappointing performance can easily lead to a sell-off.
2. Industry inventory is gradually replenishing, supply will increase later, and the momentum of price hikes for memory and flash is hard to sustain. The logic for price increases is weakening, compressing the space for profit growth.
3. The market's imagination for AI storage is overly optimistic. A large part of Micron's rise is supported by the HBM story, but its actual HBM capacity and shipment proportion are not as exaggerated as the market claims. Once the financial report reveals the truth, valuation is easily hit.
4. Once the US tech stocks pull back overall, hardware stocks that have surged a lot like this will face heavy selling pressure.
5. Another point is that with competition heating up and other companies releasing capacity, Micron's gross margin will be squeezed.
Summary: The stock price is driven by very optimistic future expectations, but the actual business cannot keep up with the stock's ambitions. Once expectations are not met, there is room for the price to fall. TREASURY LIQUIDITY IS THE HIDDEN CATALYST 💧
The U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-dated bond buybacks has become a major driver of the crypto rally.
The move has shifted liquidity expectations, weakened the dollar and improved risk appetite.
$BTC is benefiting from the same macro environment pushing investors toward scarce assets.#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap Spot ETFs are rewriting the underlying logic of this rebound
Last week, US spot $BTC and $ETH ETFs collectively attracted about $2.6 billion, both setting new single-week records for 2026. This data deserves close attention because it reveals a deeper change beyond "funds returning"—the "fuel component" of this rebound is shifting.
In past market cycles, price rallies were mainly driven by leverage: contract longs increasing positions, shorts being liquidated, and prices surging rapidly due to a short squeeze effect. Last week, BTC rose from $62,000 to $79,500, with about $4.5 billion in short liquidations contributing. But this time, the simultaneous large-scale inflow of ETF funds means that beyond leverage, a "heavier" type of capital is entering—coming through regulated, compliant instruments, backed by institutional allocation decisions rather than traders' position games.
The behavior pattern of the funds also confirms this. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed about $1.3 billion in one week, with $503 million flowing in on Thursday alone; weekly trading volume for BTC and ETH ETFs surged from $8.8 billion to $29 billion. This is not retail-style probing but a characteristic of top-tier institutions building concentrated positions—the funds are not scattered like pepper but precisely flowing to the most liquid leading products.
Of course, no need to jump to conclusions. Since 2026, BTC ETFs have still seen a net outflow of about $2.9 billion, and ETH ETFs a net outflow of about $192 million. Last week's surge only reduced the annual deficit from $5.7 billion to $3.1 billion; the capital pool is still repairing and far from a full return.
The real watershed is this week: whether the inflows can continue. If yes, it indicates institutions are establishing sustained positions, pullbacks will be supported by buying, and the market has found a "bottom"; if not, last week's surge might just be a pulse reaction triggered by the expansion of the Fed's Treasury repo policy, coming fast and going fast.
Leverage pushes prices up, spot ETFs define the trend. Last week's data is tipping the scales toward the latter.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC experiences volatility after a surge, with ETF funds continuing to flow in
I believe this round of BTC rebound has shown preliminary characteristics of shifting from "short covering" to "spot-driven," but whether the trend can continue depends crucially on whether ETF funds can sustain absorbing selling pressure at high levels.
The basis for this judgment comes from last week's combined net inflow of about $2.6 billion into US spot BTC and ETH ETFs, the strongest single-week inflow since October last year, with BTC ETFs contributing $1.9 billion and ETH ETFs contributing $697 million. This scale indicates institutional funds are actively building positions rather than passively closing them.
In detail, BTC price reached a high of $78,800 within 24 hours before retreating to around $77,000 to fluctuate, indicating profit-taking pressure at high levels. However, the price did not experience panic selling; instead, support formed at $77,000, which aligns closely with the timing of continuous ETF fund inflows. Regarding positions, the current market leverage ratio has not returned to extreme levels, indicating that the upward momentum mainly comes from spot buying rather than margin financing.
Don't just focus on price changes; pay attention to changes in the capital structure. When ETFs begin to sustain net inflows, it means the bullish logic upgrades from sentiment recovery to allocation demand, which is an important signal for a trending market. But be cautious: once inflows slow down, profit-taking accumulated from the earlier rapid rise may concentrate and trigger severe volatility. ETF funds are the stabilizing anchor of the current market; their sustainability is more important than the price itself.
@OKX星球 Watched the pre-market all night, $SOXL's drop scared a lot of people, but I actually find this position a bit interesting.
📰 News: Barron's is again highlighting SOXL's high volatility and risk attributes, Burry also showed bearish semiconductor ETF options, short-term sentiment is quite suppressed, but this concentrated bearishness seems more like an accelerated emotional purge.
🔧 Technicals: The daily technicals are indeed weak, RSI14 has dropped to 37.9, MACD death cross with expanding green bars, price has fallen below MA7/MA25 with a bearish moving average alignment, but it's not far from the Bollinger lower band at 110.64, conditions for an oversold rebound are accumulating.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens only fell 0.51% pre-market, no systemic sell-off in the pre-market session, the larger drop in triple-leveraged products is more about their own emotional release, external environment remains relatively stable.
🎯 Today's view: Bullish, the core logic is that short-term sentiment and indicators are at low levels, SOXL's rebound potential remains, as long as the semiconductor sector doesn't continue to amplify negative news, recovery will be easier to achieve.
📊 Token 114.48 (-4.26%) | US stock pre-market
#USStocks
#SemiconductorSector
#SOXLOutlook Looking beyond the concept to the essence: Can ACO's Tokenomics withstand the test of the market? 📉📈
No matter how beautifully the story is told, if the token model is unreasonable, it will end in chaos. The token distribution in ACO's whitepaper is quite restrained:
💡 1 billion fixed total supply, absolutely no unlimited inflation
No infinite money printing inflation poison pill, fundamentally limiting the total supply.
💎 55% reserved entirely for the whole network's ecological mining
550 million tokens are linearly produced through node construction, social interaction, and on-chain activity, with no concentrated sell pressure from large institutions or private placements.
🔥 All-scenario Gas burn "black hole"
DEX trading, instant swaps, decentralized plaza promotion, live streaming rewards—whenever someone uses the ecosystem, the generated Gas fees are proportionally sent directly into the black hole for burning.
Production has an upper limit, consumption increases with ecosystem activity. This deflation driven by real demand is the true value foundation.
#Tokenomics #ACO #CryptoEconomy #TokenBurn #DeFi #US-Iran sanctions escalate, energy inflation risk rises
$CL $BZ
The escalation of the US-Iran situation triggers concerns about supply disruptions, injecting geopolitical risk premiums into oil prices again. The market is more focused on how rising oil prices transmit to inflation and macro liquidity.
🪁 Macro transmission path
Oil price rise → increased transportation and production costs → inflation pressure rises → changes in Fed rate cut expectations → risk assets repriced
▶️ Oil price rise
Strait of Hormuz transport risks and a new round of sanctions push up crude costs
▶️ Inflation recurrence
Increased production and transportation costs raise CPI upside risks
▶️ Slower rate cuts
Fed remains hawkish, market reassesses pace of rate cuts
▶️ Asset pressure
US Treasury yields and dollar strengthen, liquidity tightening suppresses risk assets
🪁 Impact on BTC and key levels
▶️ Short-term nature
BTC is still highly tied to macro liquidity rather than pure safe haven; rising inflation expectations will exert short-term price pressure
▶️ Key anchors $90 - $100
If oil prices only spike then fall back, market will return to rate cut logic
If it stays firmly above $90 or even approaches $100, inflation trades will fully revive
🪁 Response strategy
Geopolitical news tends to cause short-term high volatility; do not blindly adjust positions based on single news. Focus on oil price sustainability, US Treasury yields, and Fed statements; follow capital flows rather than sentiment changes
Not investment advice, DYOR💵 Bitcoin tops $68K as Treasury doubles bond buybacks
Bitcoin surged ~6% to $68,982 after the U.S. Treasury doubled long-dated debt buybacks, raising the cap from $2B to at least $4B on 10-to-30-year securities.
The move eased long-term yield pressure and sparked a risk-on rally. Ether jumped 9%, while crypto market cap rose 5.1%.
Shorts got hit hard: $1.7B in liquidations, with shorts making up 91%.
Macro-driven moves are back. When Treasury moves the yield curve, risk assets listen.✅ Four core reasons for the rise:
1. Improved macro liquidity expectations: U.S. Treasury operations suppress yields, the market bets on rate cuts, the dollar weakens, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. Warmer U.S. regulatory outlook: The White House meets with the crypto industry, the market expects friendly legislation, and sentiment significantly recovers.
3. Short squeeze amplifies gains: Many shorts previously, once the price breaks through, shorts collectively liquidate and are forced to buy, violently pushing the market higher, driven by leverage.
4. ETF capital inflow support: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs shift from outflows to inflows, institutional funds enter to support the price.
⚠️ Risk points:
• This is a rebound, not confirmation of a new bull market; the short squeeze causes sharp rises but also quick pullbacks.
• Biggest variables: U.S. inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and whether regulatory legislation can truly be implemented.
• Short-term is already overbought, a significant correction could happen anytime.
In short: Macro + regulatory expectations ignite the market, short squeeze amplifies gains, ETF funds catch the rally; but most positives are expectations, not fully realized, so volatility risk is huge.The hardest foundation of Bitcoin's four-year cycle has never been mysticism, but code.
Every 210,000 blocks, the block reward halves, with an average of one block every 10 minutes, which is roughly 4 years.
In Bitcoin's early days, the new supply was large; halving means miners suddenly sell fewer BTC to the market each day.
As long as demand doesn't drop, when supply contracts, prices naturally tend to rise.
So the pattern has always repeated:
Halving → Price increase → Frenzy → Bubble → Crash → Next cycle.
But now there is a very obvious change.
Bitcoin has been running for 16 years, and most BTC has already been mined. The marginal impact of reduced new supply from halving on the entire market is diminishing.
What really matters now may no longer be how much less BTC miners mine daily, but whether ETFs, institutions, publicly listed companies, and even national funds continue to buy.
The future rhythm of BTC may increasingly depend on:
global liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar trend, and institutional capital flows.
Therefore, I neither believe the "four-year cycle will replicate exactly as before," nor that "this time is completely different."
I lean toward a third answer:
The cycle still exists, but it is morphing.
The peak may come earlier, and the bear market may shorten.
There might even be several sudden 40% or 50% crashes in between, washing out everyone, causing the market to shout "the bull market is over," but after the shakeout, the price continues to rise.Jin10 has new news again! Total's CEO gives a very conflicting judgment: crude oil fundamentals look bearish, but diesel refined products are actually very strong.
Crude oil raw material supply is not really tight, relying entirely on temporary stimulation from geopolitical news; but diesel inventories are relatively low, and refining profits are booming.
This explains why Iran made tough statements, crude oil surged but quickly fell back. Geopolitics is just short-term sentiment, very difficult to reverse the big crude oil fundamentals.
Short-term you can speculate on a rebound, if there is profit you must run, don't blindly bet on a big bull market. $CL
$BZ (Brent): global seaborne crude oil, Middle East wars, Strait incidents, BZ volatility is often more intense #Brent crude oil down 1.87% #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #SamsungPayoutUpTo80B
Samsung may return up to $80B to shareholders while the AI memory race still demands enormous investment. That's the real test of this cycle: can chipmakers reward investors without starving the fabs that create future growth? If HBM cash flow funds both, valuations could get a powerful reset. If payouts compete with capex, today's generosity could become tomorrow's constraint. AI profits are here. Now capital allocation matters just as much.Xiaomi released three self-developed Xuanjie chips, enhancing $XIAOMI's preference for hard technology, but initially only covering niche categories. The capital position has not rushed to fully reprice, with the core conflict lying in the trade-off between measured energy efficiency and mass production bottlenecks.
The three self-developed Xuanjie chips cover mobile SoCs and intelligent driving scenarios. The event risk quickly triggered the market's release of risk preference for hard technology. Since the chips are currently only installed in niche categories, the main capital positions in the market remain cautiously observant, with no indiscriminate chasing of prices.
Among the driving factors, risk preference transmission precedes fundamental realization. Measured data on energy efficiency and ecological synergy ranks first, followed by automobile delivery volume and Hong Kong stock liquidity base. The premium expectation brought by the chip release is constrained by shipment bottlenecks, with capital waiting for the effect of mass production landing.
The upside scenario trigger condition is that the new chip's measured energy efficiency in mobile and intelligent driving scenarios exceeds expectations, and shipment scale is not hindered by the supply chain. If a steady increase in shipment penetration in niche categories is observed, the technology premium will spread to the overall valuation center; the failure signal is ecological synergy showing compatibility faults or delayed capacity delivery.
The downside scenario trigger condition is that mass production measurements encounter compatibility obstacles or capacity limitations fail to meet initial demand. Once shipment bottlenecks are established, risk preference will quickly cool down, and market focus will return to automobile sales and changes in Hong Kong stock liquidity; the failure signal is automobile delivery volume significantly exceeding expectations, forcibly supporting valuation.
When capital positions shift from observation to heavy layout in main product lines, the current cautious bullish neutral judgment becomes invalid. If the market abandons verification of chip energy efficiency and turns to pure liquidity speculation, it indicates that the technology repricing logic has been interrupted by short-term sentiment.
The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the energy efficiency performance of the Xuanjie chip in terminal measurements and the delivery progress of the first batch of capacity.
#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战$BTC is consolidating around 77600, seemingly calm but actually with underlying turbulence📊
Tonight at 2 PM Eastern Time (2 AM Beijing Time on August 25), US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will hold an emergency press conference to initiate an "economic D-day" against Iran — which translates to: extreme financial pressure is coming.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices will inevitably surge, inflation expectations will rise, the Fed's rate cut pace will be disrupted, the dollar will strengthen, and liquidity will tighten. All of these are direct emotional blows to risk assets.
BTC has risen from 60,000, with RSI once reaching 93, technically overbought to the extreme. The market itself is due for a decent pullback to digest gains. The news is just the fuse, not the fundamental cause.
The biggest taboo tonight is holding heavy overnight positions stubbornly. Don’t go against sudden news, and don’t stare at the K-line at 2 AM trying to outpace the whales — they have data sources and capital advantages. Retail investors can only control position size.
Altcoins and junk coins are absolutely off-limits tonight. At this stage, the main players love to use news to spike and shake out weak hands, harvesting trend followers. I lost a lot on this in my early years, and later realized that short-term profits in altcoins come with unlimited risk.
Currently, I only hold $BTC in spot, with some platform tokens like $OKB as base positions, and am not looking at others for now.
The above is purely my personal review and thoughts, not any trading advice. Everyone should judge for themselves and bear their own profits and losses.🧊
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 There is intense debate in the current market:
1. "Flywheel Restart" narrative: Optimists believe that the U.S. Treasury's liquidity release, improved regulatory clarity (with Trump pushing the CLARITY Act), and massive inflows of ETF funds have reignited the "Bitcoin flywheel effect"—price increases attract capital, which in turn drives further price rises. Standard Chartered analysts hinted that their year-end target price of $100,000 might be "too conservative."
2. "Short Squeeze Rebound" narrative: The cautious camp points out that the core driver of this rally is shorts being forced to cover, rather than strong new long positions entering. Structural buying (such as Strategy's continuous purchases) has already disappeared, and on-chain data shows that 30-day spot demand has improved but has not fully turned positive. Last week's sharp rise "recovered some lost ground," but the price is still about 43% below the historical high.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 本周三是质量检验窗口。PCE、GDP二次估值和耐用品订单几乎同时公布，盘后还有英伟达财报，高估值AI资产会先被校准，存储需求的宏观背景也会一起被重新定价。 刚过去这一周，标普和纳指结束连续上涨，半导体跌得更深。一边是走高的美债收益率，一边是越来越贵的AI资产，两个问题本周正面相遇。 周一相对清淡。经历上周调整后，如果长债收益率暂时稳定，科技股出现技术性修复并不奇怪，方向仍要看周三。 三份数据对应三个问题。PCE看通胀，GDP看美国经济有没有明显降速，耐用品订单看企业还愿不愿意继续投资。 最舒服的组合仍是经济有韧性、通胀继续降温。这样市场既不用担心衰退，也可以降低对继续收紧的担忧，风险偏好才愿意重新加回高估值仓位。 企业若维持资本开支，AI训练和推理带来的数据仍需要被存储和调用，去中心化存储的需求叙事就能得到宏观层面的支撑，这是继续看好 $FIL 的主要传导。 盘后的 $NVDA 更像压力测试。上一季度给出的Q2收入指引已经高达910亿美元左右，体量到了这一步，营收增长好看的边际意义已经下降，市场会更在意AI投入能否延续。$META、$AMZN、$MRVL 同在这条定价链上。 事件会顺着$ETH whale position voting.
The "819 ETH insider whale" who precisely positioned before the surge on August 19 holds $48.85 million in positions, with unrealized profits exceeding $10 million, and has not reduced or exited positions to date. These people have an information advantage over retail investors; their holding indicates the story is not over.
On the other hand, more intriguing is the anonymous whale jasonleo's ETH short position of 4,756 ETH at an entry price of $2,361, currently showing an unrealized loss of $160,000, and has only partially closed. Whales on both sides are holding firm, with ETH open interest contracts again breaking through $2 billion.
Glassnode data shows the number of whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH has risen from a low of 4,750 in June to nearly 4,850, with a continuous positive net change over 30 days, indicating sustained accumulation rather than short-term speculation.
ETH spot ETFs have also reversed eight consecutive weeks of outflows, with three consecutive weeks of net inflows since July. However, the daily average inflow is only tens of millions of dollars, far below the $600 million to $1 billion peak in August 2025. Institutions are returning but are far from going all in.
$2,000 is a psychological barrier, $2,438 is the 0.618 Fibonacci target. ETH is currently tugging around $2,400, with supply resistance near $2,438 on the upside and 0.786 retracement support at $1,754 on the downside.
Whales clustering on the bullish side does not mean a one-sided rise; there are liquidation zones on both sides, so avoid blindly chasing highs. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Just this past week, US stocks have finally stepped on the brakes after their major rebound. The S&P and Nasdaq ended their winning streaks, with semiconductors falling even more. The underlying issues are actually quite clear: on one side are rising US Treasury yields, on the other are increasingly expensive AI assets. And this week, these two issues will confront each other head-on. Monday is relatively mild, so I didn't rush to decide the direction in the first couple of days. After last week's adjustment, if long-term bond yields remain temporarily stable, it would not be surprising for tech stocks to undergo a technical recovery. The real determination of the quality of this round of market will be determined by Wednesday. Before the market opens on Wednesday, PCE, the second GDP valuation, and durable goods orders will be released almost simultaneously. These three data points correspond exactly to three questions. PCE looks at inflation, GDP on whether the US economy has clearly slowed down, durable goods orders depend on whether companies are willing to continue investing, and the most comfortable combination is still the economy with resilience and continued cooling inflation. This way, the market neither has to worry about a recession nor can it reduce worries about continued Fed tightening. Tech stocks love this kind of environment. But if GDP starts to weaken and PCE heats up again, things get tricky. Because this means the economy is losing momentum, yet interest rates remain difficult to come down. For the current high-valuation Nasdaq, this is even more dangerous than a simple economic downturn. Then, after Wednesday's market close, the big news arrived: Nvidia $NVDA Q2 revenue guidance for the previous quarter had already reached around $91 billion. Given this scale, "very good revenue growth" no longer holds much meaning.Short-term holders' unrealized profits soar to 75%: Bitcoin at 77,000 threshold, beware of concentrated profit-taking pressure
In just 8 days, Bitcoin surged from $63,000 to $77,000, with on-chain microchip structure undergoing intense reversal and competition
Latest on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows the profit supply ratio of Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) sharply increased from 26.1% on August 17 to 74.9%. In just over a week, nearly three-quarters of all short-term holders have completely turned from deep underwater to unrealized profit territory. This is followed by accelerated profit-taking, with the net profit and loss indicator of short-term holders flowing to exchanges turning positive from negative, breaking through the warning line of 25,000 BTC and soaring to +28,600 BTC in a single day
This on-chain pulse is a typical short-term watershed signal. When a large amount of unrealized profit chips are densely moved to exchanges, if the market's upward momentum dulls or volume shrinks, it can easily trigger concentrated profit-taking by short-term bulls, causing high-level shakeouts and deep pullbacks. However, if this indicator gradually falls back near the zero line in the coming days while Bitcoin price remains stable between $75,000 and $77,000, it means these profit-taking positions have been fully absorbed by off-exchange bulls, completing a healthy turnover of chips from low to high levels
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Two major events are approaching simultaneously, and the market is holding its breath: ① Gold soars to a three-month high. On Monday, gold prices surged to their highest level in over three months. The weakening dollar is the direct driver, but the deeper reason is that the market is front-running—traders are betting that Wednesday's PCE data and Friday's speech by Waller will signal a policy shift. Analysts bluntly say that if Waller's wording is "balanced or cautious," gold prices still have room to rise. ② At 2 AM tonight, the U.S. will officially announce its "toughest sanctions" on Iran. Bassett will hold a press conference, previewing this as the "largest financial offensive in history," aiming to cut off every economic lifeline of Iran. Any country or company doing business with Iran will face secondary sanctions—covering oil trade, remittance channels, and ship-to-ship transfers, all within the scope of the crackdown. Iran has long drawn a red line: if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will leave the Strait of Hormuz. Interestingly, oil prices fell more than 1% today—the market is choosing to take profits before the sanctions land, a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. But analysts warn that if the sanctions truly take effect, the risk of Iran taking more aggressive actions will rise, and volatility in the energy market is far from over. What does this mean for the crypto space? · Sanctions exceed expectations → oil prices surge → inflation stickiness increases → Fed finds it harder to cut rates → bearish for BTC/ETH · Sanctions are all bark and no bite → short-term bearish sentiment is exhausted, possible rebound Gold rising is a signal; BTC not following is a warning. Coupled with Wednesday's PCE and Friday's Waller speech, volatility will definitely increase this week. Before the data is released, hold your hands and don't bet on direction. $BTC at $77,700, are you chasing the highs?
First, look at the surface: a violent rebound, retail FOMO chasing the highs.
In mid-August, it was still hovering around 62k-65k, then in one week it surged directly to 79.5k, a weekly increase of 23-26%, one of the largest single-week gains in recent years. Tens of billions of dollars in short positions across the network were liquidated, retail investors just got cut, and the market took off.
The candlestick tells you: successfully broke through the 67.5k range, stood above the 200-day moving average (71.7k), and formed higher lows on the weekly chart — the mid-term trend has turned bullish, but don’t chase the highs in the short term.
First thing: ETF inflows hit $1.9 billion in one week, this is not volume retail can pull out.
Spot BTC ETF net inflows this week are about $1.9 billion, a 10-month high. BlackRock IBIT contributed the most, institutions are buying with real money.
Ray Dalio has publicly recommended allocating BTC to hedge against U.S. debt risk. Are you still waiting for a pullback? They are buying while you watch, it’s always like this.
Second thing: The U.S. Treasury made a big move, liquidity valves opened.
The U.S. Treasury announced at least doubling the long-term Treasury repo scale to around $4 billion, directly pushing down long-term yields.
Treasury repo = injecting money into the market
Long-term yield decline = risk assets become more valuable
BTC and gold directly benefit
Combined with Trump pushing the CLARITY Act (vote on September 15), creating "policy clarity" expectations for the crypto industry. Regulatory easing + liquidity release, a dual recipe for a bull market.
Third thing: A technical signal that must be watched.
Daily RSI entered overbought zone (78-88), price close to the upper Bollinger Band, 4H shows cooling signals. From 79.5k it fell back to 77k, a typical "sharp rise followed by high-level consolidation."
Don’t panic — this is a healthy pullback digestion, not the end of the trend. The key is whether 76k-76.5k can hold.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
ETF inflows of $1.9 billion in one week, a 10-month high
U.S. Treasury injecting money, liquidity valves opened
Trump’s policy benefits + Ray Dalio’s buy call
Weekly breakout of the range, mid-term trend turns bullish
On the other side:
Daily RSI overbought at 88, short-term overheating
This week’s PCE + Jackson Hole, hawkish risks may crash the market
If 76k doesn’t hold, retest 73k-74k
Funding rates turn positive, longs crowded
Key levels
Resistance above: 78.5k-79.5k (recent highs) → 80k (psychological level) → 82k-85k → 95k
Support below: 76k-76.5k (pullback level) → 75k (Fibonacci) → 73k-74k (strong demand zone)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for a pullback to 76k-76.5k to lightly go long, stop loss below 75k, first target 79.5k-80k, second 82k-85k.
Swing traders:
Wait for volume to confirm holding above 79.5k-80k before chasing longs on the right side, stop loss at 78k, target around 95k. If it breaks 75k with volume, wait and watch for 73k-74k to bottom fish.
Long-term believers:
Place orders at 73k-74k to accumulate, buying dips is profit. Continuous ETF inflows + debt narrative + regulatory clarity, 2027 target 100k+. But remember — this week’s PCE + Jackson Hole volatility is huge, don’t over-leverage.
BTC rose 23% this week, but you might have lost money —
Because you always sell low and buy high.
On the day it breaks 80k, you’ll realize:
It’s not that BTC is weak, it’s that you always die before dawn.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At 77,700, do you dare to add positions?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 August 24 U.S.-Iran Situation Analysis: Focusing on Whether the Latest U.S. Sanctions on Iran Are "TACO"
As mentioned earlier, many major events occurred over the weekend regarding the U.S.-Iran situation. Iran is attempting to restructure the Strait management model with Oman—introducing a permit system plus a service fee system.
Facing potential U.S. economic sanctions, Pakistan’s top mediator Munir has already traveled to Tehran. According to media reports, Munir spoke with Trump a few days before departure. Munir’s three tasks this time are very important.
Iran has made two preparations in response to U.S. sanctions: one is to soften the Strait’s fee standards, maintaining a positive attitude toward the Strait and U.S.-Iran negotiations; the other is to warn that U.S. economic sanctions may increase the risk of conflict between both sides.
Today, China again issued a counter-warning against U.S. economic sanctions, preemptively informing the U.S. to protect Chinese shipowners and vessels’ interests in the Middle East, which can be seen as exerting some pressure on the U.S. sanctions plan.
Next, observe two developments:
1. On Sunday, Iranian officials reported that Iran was invited to the "Mecca Collective Defense Agreement." So far, no official confirmation from the other three countries has been seen. Once confirmed or if the agreement advances, I consider it an important positive turning point.
2. Whether the U.S. sanctions on Iran will soften and become "TACO" tonight. Nominally, Pakistan’s Munir’s visit to Iran is a political stance. Additionally, China’s counter-warning means the U.S. has clearly received diplomatic and political pressure. We will see if sanctions continue or soften. If softened, I also regard it as a major positive.
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 SK Hynix is currently a typical case of a surge followed by a pullback; the sentiment hasn't kept up to stabilize it. The entire storage sector is like this, but SK Hynix has buyback support, so its drop isn't as severe.
Before the market opened, US tech stocks fell again. The storage sector hasn't yet shaken off the correction sentiment. Currently, my view on SK Hynix $SKHYNIX is the same as on SanDisk; SK Hynix's current support level is 1180.
Today's pullback is not yet a buying opportunity. Right now, SK Hynix and Micron are in a very awkward position. If they expand production, profits can't be maintained, and storage prices will fall, leaving little room for speculation. If they don't expand, market share will be aggressively chased by Changxin and Yangtze Memory. Apple is already seeking chips from Changxin.
I believe whether to expand production or not, and market share, are not the key issues. The important question is whether market demand can still reach the levels seen in the first half of the year. If there isn't much demand, Changxin's output is extreme. Without explosive demand like in the first half, these orders will be quickly absorbed. To exaggerate, I estimate that even running at full capacity, global demand won't be enough for its production.
Additionally, with ongoing changes in geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainty whether Nvidia's earnings report will meet market expectations, its performance will determine the direction of AI and the market's valuation of the AI sector.
Considering that Nvidia's earnings reports have triggered declines in the past, I believe that whether it's a surge or a drop, funds are already retreating. So, we need to see how much impact this will have on storage. For now, set the take-profit level at 1180. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Xiaomi has launched three self-developed Xuanjie chips, covering mobile phone SoCs and intelligent driving scenarios. The event quickly boosted $XIAOMI's hard technology risk appetite and valuation expectations, but the new chips are initially limited to niche categories, and capital positions have not rushed to give a comprehensive repricing. If subsequent real-world tests of energy efficiency and ecosystem synergy exceed expectations, the technology premium will spread toward the valuation center; otherwise, shipment bottlenecks will suppress enthusiasm for price surges. If compatibility obstacles appear during mass production testing of new devices, market focus will shift back to car sales and Hong Kong stock liquidity itself.
#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径$BTC
Concentration is decreasing, and chips are starting to loosen!
As of August 24, the highest chip peak — the accumulation at $63,000 — has dropped from a peak of 1.22 million coins to 980,000 coins;
while the bar next to it at $62,000 shows little change, indicating that the short-term price rally has little impact on the chips here.
As we described in the scenario we projected on August 21 (see quote): once the chips start to loosen, the price will either stabilize or pull back.
A new chip concentration area will then form. Because the price staying put provides an opportunity for turnover.
And now it seems that the $76,000-$77,000 range has the potential to become a new chip concentration area (Figure 1).
In just 3 days, 320,000 BTC were added in this range.
At the same time, we see that when BTC broke through to $77,000-$78,000,
there was a strong wave of profit-taking, the largest scale in nearly 6 months (Figure 2).
But even so, the price did not drop significantly.
Clearly, there is capital stepping in to absorb the supply here. #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
Short term (next 1-2 quarters): Nvidia is very likely to continue delivering impressive numbers. The ramp-up of Blackwell, progress on Rubin, and the rollout of Agentic AI applications are all supporting demand. The earnings report itself is likely not an issue; the key lies in the guidance and management’s commentary on ROI, customer utilization, power constraints, and competitive landscape.
Mid term (1-2 years): The real watershed moment. If enterprise AI applications (especially those that directly generate revenue or significantly reduce costs) accelerate deployment, and hyperscale providers maintain high capex levels, the cycle can continue. Conversely, if clear signs of “affordable but not profitable” emerge, the market will reprice growth expectations for the entire AI industry chain.
Current evidence is mostly positive but not yet fully conclusive:
• Cloud providers’ AI-related revenues are accelerating.
• Inference demand is growing alongside model capability improvements.
• Jensen Huang repeatedly emphasizes “compute equals revenue,” indicating they themselves are using this narrative to convince the market.
However, it must be acknowledged that the long-term economics of many current AI infrastructure investments still heavily depend on continuous leaps in model capabilities, reductions in token costs, and the penetration speed of real commercial scenarios. None of these are set in stone yet. $SOL fell back to 93, down 2.05% in 24 hours, sliding down from the high of 95.46. This wave of a 22% rebound over a month has reached a critical point.
Currently at 93.39, the data shows:
24h range is 93.24-95.46, volume 1.22B, significantly lower than the rebound start day, indicating profit-taking turnover rather than panic selling. RSI has dropped from last week's overbought zone to around 55, which is healthy. But on the daily chart, the previous dense trading zone at 95-96 has resisted for three consecutive days, and the selling pressure from trapped holders above is a real wall of gold and silver.
Fundamentals are not bad: daily active addresses remain steady above 5 million, DEX trading volume ranks first across the chain, and pump.fun, although not as crazy as last year, is still running. The problem lies in leverage; open futures contracts have increased this week. If BTC pulls back 3%, SOL's historical pattern is to drop 6-8%.
From a technical perspective, 90 is the 20-day EMA support, and 82-84 is a double support zone of the 50-day EMA and a dense chip area. As long as 90 holds, the structure of this rebound remains intact.
Strategy: Do not chase at the current price. Place half the order at 88-90, the other half at 82-84, with a stop loss below 78. SOL is a good asset, but good assets should not be chased at highs. $MU
Personal position: Long Micron around 940 with full 1x position, stop loss near 915, take profit between 953-997.
Position logic: Korean stocks, Samsung shareholder returns fell short of expectations, causing a short-term sector sell-off; A-share and Korean storage stocks face synchronized sentiment pressure, representing an emotional oversell. AI server HBM demand is rigid, storage prices maintain an upward trend, and long-term contracts lock in performance. Short-term pullback offers a window for positioning, betting on sector sentiment recovery. Therefore, entering long to capture short-term rebound.This bounce looks more like a selective risk bid than a broad regime change. ETH’s 2.03% gain and test of $2,500 show stronger near-term momentum than BTC, but BTC ETF inflows still give the market its clearest structural support.
I would treat the move as constructive, not decisive. Treasury buyback signals may help liquidity at the margin, while escalating Iran oil risk could revive inflation pressure and limit how far risk assets can reprice. My bias stays moderately positive, with ETH leading tactically and BTC remaining the stronger macro anchor.
Just my read, not advice.On August 23, the treasury of Term Finance, an Ethereum fixed-rate lending protocol, was drained of approximately $8.5 million. It was not a contract vulnerability or private key leak, but a governance attack.
The attacker first used Tornado Cash to obtain 2 ETH as startup capital, then bought a majority of the governance tokens at a low price where liquidity was thin, submitted and approved a malicious proposal, took over the treasury, and withdrew 2,843 ETH and 1.68 million USDC. Before the attack, the treasury product had about $12.45 million locked, resulting in a loss of about 68%.
Term's treasury proposals originally had a 7-day delay, and liquidity providers could veto, but these defenses did not stop the attack. The project team shut down all Meta Vaults overnight and revoked governance roles; the underlying lending protocol was unaffected.
The essence of a governance attack is the cost of voting power: when the circulating supply of governance tokens is small and the price is cheap, the cost to acquire a majority is far less than directly attacking the contract. Once voting rights can directly move funds, governance becomes the largest attack surface.
For users, the security of funds locked in governance-based treasuries depends on how much it costs to acquire a majority vote, not just whether the contract has vulnerabilities. Delays, vetoes, and multisigs for critical fund actions should be set separately.
After Term triggered a 918 ETH liquidation in April 2025 due to an oracle error, it promised to strengthen third-party verification and governance transparency. Beyond promises, whether protections truly work is the question before the next attack arrives.#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
What did Kashkari say? On August 23, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that the 10-year US Treasury yield nearing 4.7% is "not historically abnormal," as it was higher in the 1990s. The market is functioning normally with ample liquidity, and the Fed should continue focusing on the federal funds rate. He did not commit to a rate hike in September and frankly expressed "no confidence" that inflation will return to 2% in the short term. He also acknowledged that if the Iran conflict continues, energy prices will further push inflation higher.
What did the Treasury do? On August 19, the Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its 10-30 year Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion, effective September 9. Bassett indicated it might expand further.
What is the effect? The 30-year yield briefly fell but then quickly rebounded to 5.276%. Wells Fargo bluntly called this a "short-term relief." Nomura Securities strategists pointed out that the Treasury buyback is a debt management operation essentially swapping new debt for old debt. The market likens this move to Japan's efforts to suppress government bond yields, raising concerns that the dollar might fall into a "devaluation spiral."
Kashkari said the market is "functioning normally," but the simultaneous occurrence of $40 trillion in debt ceiling pressure, a 5.3% 30-year yield, and the Treasury being forced to step in to buy bonds — these three things themselves indicate "abnormality." A $4 billion buyback at once is a drop in the bucket compared to $40 trillion in debt. A fundamental fix? Far from it. $HYPE is still the most sentiment-driven stock, hitting a record high of 82.58 on 8/22, now hovering around 80. I know some people didn’t dare to buy below 70 and are now itching to get in, so I’m writing this to hold them back.
Why I both love and fear it, three points:
1. The fundamentals are really in use. 30-day perpetual volume broke $200 billion, TVL is 1.48 billion (stablecoins over 600 million), 48M HYPE has been burned, and Trump even hinted at opening the US market access. AQAv2 upgrade is expected to land on 8/26, with fee burns to increase, this is solid protocol revenue returning.
2. But RSI is 82, overbought; after hitting 82.58 on 8/22, it pulled back, with a 24-hour range of 76.97-81.13, and clear selling pressure above 82. Bitget’s key support is 70.60, previous high resistance at 82.43, these two lines form the short-term box.
3. Like OKB, it’s a "compliance sentiment stock," Trump’s words can pump or dump it. The current market is a strong consolidation at a high level, not a main upward wave continuation, chasing costs isn’t worthwhile.
HYPE is most driven by sentiment, keep your position light, and set strict stop losses.