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[Why is Bitcoin's true bear bottom always a flat bottom with an "extreme low volatility"?] 】
Looking back at the bear bottoms of the past two cycles (2018-2019 and 2022-2023), Bitcoin's true bottom was never directly completed by a single rapid pin insertion, but rather presented an extremely low volatility "flat bottom" structure.
This phenomenon is strongly supported by on-chain indicators and game logic:
The essence of chip clearing: a sharp drop (a dimensionality reduction strike) can only clear out high leverage and panic trading, but cannot completely wash away steadfast long-term holders (LTH). A true bottom requires time + extremely narrow oscillation to wear down market sentiment. When turnover rate drops to a freezing point, the SOPR indicator stays below 1 for a long time and volatility converges, chips fully shift from short-term to long-term, and a flat bottom is established.
Liquidity depletion and clearing: In the flat bottom range of extreme low volatility, market liquidity is exhausted, selling pressure (Unrealized Loss gradually released) and buying pressure reach a fragile equilibrium until volatility is compressed to historical extremes, restoring explosive momentum.
Returning to the current market perspective: the current price position and volatility have not shown "freezing point" characteristics. Considering the on-chain position cost structure and chip distribution, the true cycle bottom is most likely still at an even lower level (such as below $50,000). Before bottoming out, the market will most likely undergo an extremely fierce ultimate dip to completely break through the market's last psychological defenses and bottom-fishing leverage.
Panic breaks from the dip, the bottom shows the true bottom. Patiently waiting for this final shakeout and subsequent formation of a flat bottom is the safest signal for long-term capital to enter.🚨 A geopolitical headline could become the next bullish catalyst for cryptocurrencies.
The market is closely watching the Strait of Hormuz.
According to reports, negotiations between the United States, Iran, and Oman are making progress toward reaching a temporary agreement aimed at keeping maritime traffic open and easing pressure on the energy market.
The final decision has not yet been made—but if tensions continue to ease, its ripple effects could be very significant for cryptocurrencies.
Why?
The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil trade. If concerns over supply disruptions subside, oil prices may remain under pressure. Lower energy costs help ease inflation expectations and provide more room for central banks to maintain a supportive policy environment.
When the macro environment improves, risk assets typically gain a second wave of upward momentum.
This could become a significant tailwind for cryptocurrencies.
🔵 $BTC — With increasing institutional confidence and ETF demand, it may continue to maintain market leadership.
♦️ $ETH — Potential upside from staking, DeFi, tokenization, and ETF capital flows.
🟣 $SOL — Continue to benefit from strong ecosystem growth and on-chain activity.
🟡 $BNB — May benefit from increased trading activity and broader adoption of BNB Chain.
But the overall picture is more important than any single narrative.
The market is also watching: • U.S. inflation data
• The Federal Reserve's next move
• Continuous flow of crypto ETF funds
• Adoption by institutions and enterprises
• Global liquidity status
If multiple of these factors come into place simultaneously, cryptocurrencies may have a stronger foundation for the next rally.
⚠️ Risk?
If negotiations in Hormuz break down or tensions escalate again, oil prices could soar, inflation concerns may return, and investors may quickly shift to defensive strategies.
Currently, this is merely a potential bullish macro catalyst—not an inevitable outcome.
$BTC's next major move may depend more on changes in the global economy than on crypto headlines.
Focus on oil prices. Focus on the Federal Reserve. Focus on liquidity.
Cryptocurrencies will follow suit.
#霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has oil price risk cooled down? #非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes #存储股财报后续跌. Is the AI memory bull market stable?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB
#DailyOrbit 😂 Guys, I just saw a sentence from Trump that almost made me spit water:
"Bitcoin has eased a lot of pressure on the dollar."
This sentence sounds quite sophisticated, but on closer thought, it feels a bit off.
Think about it: $USDT, $USDC, and $WLFI $USD 1 — on the surface, it's all stablecoin battles, but behind the scenes, it's still the US dollar and US Treasuries.
People around the world keep circulating and speculating around stablecoins, but in the end, funds still circulate within the dollar system.
So is BTC really "saving the dollar"?
Or is there too much dollar liquidity, and it just happens to need a bigger pool to hold it?
This is interesting.
We used to think the crypto world was challenging the dollar system, but now it seems more and more similar:
The more prosperous the crypto world becomes, the further the dollar's reach actually becomes.
But on the other hand, Trump praised BTC ≠ BTC must surge tomorrow.
The president tells the story, the market makers draw candlesticks, and in the end, we still pay for the buyout 🤣
The market in 2026 is still grinding and hasn't reached a comfortable level. I'd rather keep waiting than rush in as fuel just because of a presidential speech.
Here, take a side in the comments:
A: Trump is genuinely optimistic about BTC
B: BTC is 'giving the dollar system a lifeline'
C: Don't overthink it, the bookmaker just wants to cut you
Which side are you on? 😂In a rotating market, several common trading misconceptions are worth paying attention to.
The current market is a typical stock game with no continuous influx of off-exchange funds; on-exchange funds can only switch between different tracks. If one sector explodes collectively today, the next day funds will be pulled out to pull another sector. If you are used to chasing price increases to switch positions, the outcome is likely to be both sides being attacked.
A common trading approach: seeing A surge, sell your untouched holdings to chase A; wait until you enter the market and A starts to pull back, but the previously sold stocks actually start to activate. After repeated turmoil, the market experiences a lot, but your account shrinks. The core problem is treating short-term capital pulses as the long-term main theme.
There is a simple standard to distinguish between main themes and short-term hot spots: the real market main theme doesn't rally all at once; when it steps back to key levels, capital will take over; while short-term hot spots rely on sentiment and speculative capital, rising quickly and retreating quickly. Once the hype fades, retail investors rarely get a chance to exit calmly.
At the same time, the synergy effect of U.S. stocks should not be overlooked. As financial reports from storage, AI chips, and other sectors are released one after another, fluctuations in the U.S. market will directly be transmitted to related cryptocurrencies in the crypto market. Do not view the crypto market in isolation; macro data, U.S. earnings reports, and dollar liquidity are all signals to watch simultaneously. Relying solely on candlesticks can easily overlook key risks.
Don't fantasize about capturing every wave of gains—no one can buy the entire market. Know how to give up opportunities that don't belong to you to survive longer in the market. Patiently wait for the dip to buy on promising main lines, rather than chasing highs after a big rally; When betting on small-cap rebounds, plan your take-profit and stop-loss in advance, and act decisively when conditions arise—don't be biased or fantasy.
The market is never lacking, but after losing your principal, it's much harder to make a profit. In a volatile and rotating market, surviving is more important than short-term windfalls.
Today's Market Performance:
$ETH Public Chain Track | -0.77%, turnover $2.623 billion, bullish support weakens
$BTC Market Anchor | -0.49%, turnover $2.45 billion, maintaining a volatile pattern
$SNDK Memory Chips | -7.86%, trading volume $1.521 billion, earnings reports continue to release negative news
$SPCX Aerospace Track | +16.35%, with a turnover of $922 million, showing strong standalone momentum
$BICO Cross-Chain Track | +21.91%, turnover $463 million, short-term capital concentrated attack
$SOL Public Chain Sector | +2.08%, with a turnover of $441 million, showing a slight deficit gain
$XAU Gold Hedging | -0.32%, turnover $250 million, risk aversion briefly cooled
$MU Memory Chips | -3.89%, with a turnover of $244 million, putting pressure on the sector
$SKHYNIX Memory Chips | -4.01%, $171 million in turnover, following sector weakness
$SOXL Semiconductor Leverage Long | -3.05%, turnover $161 million, bullish sentiment dampened
$MMT Small Cap Hotspot | +35.93%, turnover $158 million, speculative capital is rapidly speculating
$BEAT Oversold Coins | +14.33%, $156 million in turnover, rebounding from oversold recovery
$XRP Established Public Chains | +0.41%, with a turnover of $139 million, maintaining resilience amid volatility
$HYPE Hot Sectors | -3.61%, $117 million in turnover, funds fleeing
$DOGE Sentiment Coins | +0.62%, $114 million in turnover, retail investor sentiment stable
$ZEC Privacy Sector | -2.39%, with a turnover of $99 million, the hype faded and pulled back
$SKHY Storage ADR | -4.58%, $91 million in turnover, continuing weakness
$ALLO Hot Coins | -5.38%, $89 million in turnover, profit-taking
$SNXX SNDK leveraged | -15.45%, trading volume $71 million, leverage amplified the decline
$UB Small Cap Coins | +9.14%, $65 million turnover, with rotating funds supported
$KAITO AI Sector | -22.81%, $59 million in volume, with a significant drawdown
$SLX Concept Coins | +20.81%, $57 million in turnover, short-term thematic boom
$CL WTI Crude Oil | +0.60%, $46 million turnover, narrow fluctuations
$GRVT Derivatives Sector | -3.18%, $42 million turnover, following a pullback
$AAOI Optical Communications | -4.46%, $39 million in turnover, technology sector weakened
$RE Small Cap Theme | +23.58%, $39 million turnover, speculative capital surges
$KORU Korea ETF | -6.49%, $39 million turnover, with a significant drawdown
$PEPE Meme Sector | +0.38%, with a turnover of $38 million, limited volatility
$INTC Intel | -1.37%, trading volume $38 million, fluctuating downward
$ADA Public Chain Sector | -0.99%, with a turnover of $38 million, with relatively small fluctuations
$CRCL Sector Targets | +3.13%, with a turnover of $36 million, showing a slight recovery
$PUMP Concept Coins | -1.45%, $36 million in volume, cooling off and pulling back📊 $SNDK Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, this bull market was frantically rubbed by the bull market...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $121.48 $121.48 $0
4 hours $7,557.74 $7,240.84 $316.89
12 hours $89,600 $84,200 $5,444.82
24 hours: $540,200, $511,700, $28,500
According to $SNDK liquidation data, 1-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour long liquidations crushed shorts; 1-hour short positions were zero, 4-hour long positions were 22.8 times short, 12-hour ratios about 15.5 times, and 24-hour liquidations about 18 times. The bullish selling intensity penetrated the entire cycle. Short, medium, and long-term bulls were targeted and destroyed from all directions, with the bears' only resistance dropping in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $540,000. Bulls were bleeding like rivers, and the bull sell-off was unstoppable. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? $BEAT The concentration of chips in this pool is a bit shocking! Checking on-chain, the top 100 addresses took 93.73% of the chips—isn't this a typical manipulation coin?
Now, the long-short ratio on the contract side has pushed straight to 258%. A bunch of retail investors are chasing the highs, and the big players are tightly controlling their holdings, purely because there are many long contracts and are taking the opportunity to create liquidity for high-level distribution.
With this highly controlled market, the cost of chips held by the market makers is very low, and there is basically no buying depth below—just go short!Nonfarm payroll upset: Is there still any suspense about the Fed's rate cut in September?
The U.S. job market has suddenly poured cold water on the market
July's nonfarm payrolls data was far below expectations, with new jobs actually down by 23,000, compared to the market's previous forecast of about 80,000 increases. Meanwhile, the May and June employment figures were revised down by a combined 103,000, indicating that the pace of cooling in the U.S. labor market is accelerating.
After this data was released, the market's first reaction was to renew bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates.
But things are not that simple.
Although employment growth has slowed significantly, the unemployment rate has actually dropped to 4.1%. The reason is a drop in labor force participation and some people leaving the job market, which cannot simply be understood as a comprehensive deterioration in employment.
In other words, U.S. employment is cooling but has not yet entered a phase of spiraling control.
This is also the most difficult point for the Fed to judge right now.
If employment continues to slow and inflationary pressures ease simultaneously, the September rate cut window may open; But if wages and service prices remain high, the Fed may remain cautious.
After the release of the nonfarm payroll data, the market adjusted its expectations for a rate cut in September. CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has decreased, while some forecasts have even raised expectations to keep rates unchanged.
Market trading logic is also changing.
Previously, the focus was on whether employment could keep up with inflation, but now it's become 'whether the cooling employment is enough to drive a policy shift.'
My view is that this nonfarm payroll did not directly decide the Fed's direction, but it changed the market's pricing rhythm.
The truly key data for the future is not just about employment, but whether employment and inflation can align in the same direction.
If CPI continues to fall and employment keeps weakening, the Fed may have to start signaling easing; But if inflation rebounds, expectations for rate cuts may cool again.
For risk assets, rate cuts themselves are not the only positive factor.
The market is more focused on whether the Fed will start cutting rates amid economic stability, or if it is forced to pivot due to obvious economic pressure.
Next, the CPI will be the most important variable ahead of the September meeting.
Whether the U.S. economy is achieving a soft landing or entering a more pronounced slowdown may lie in the next round of inflation data.
Prices ultimately reflect the direction the market truly believes in.
$BICO $SNDK $GRVT
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes 🔍 The market is always obsessed with the push of individual tokens, but often overlooks the underlying currents of macro supply. The August unlock list is star-studded: $HYPE, $ENA, $SUI, and even $TRUMP, all of which seem to be putting a lot of pressure on people.
📉 But the data reveals another truth: total unlock volume has declined for three consecutive months. From $580 million in June to $376 million in July, it is expected to narrow further to about $323 million in August. The dilution is quietly receding, and the most aggressive phase of liquidity drainage may have passed.
📈 The demand side also delivered surprises. $ETH spot ETFs attracted as much as $365 million in July, marking the strongest monthly performance since their launch. On one side is the active contraction of new coin supply, on the other is the passive acceleration of traditional buying — this restructuring of supply and demand often holds more medium- to long-term anchoring significance than short-term price fluctuations.
⚠️ Of course, macro warmth cannot hide micro-level cracks. Not all tokens can escape disaster: $SOL ecosystem's linear selling pressure remains heavy, and cliff-unlocked assets like $YZY inevitably experience instant supply-demand imbalances at maturity. A reduction in total supply is not a jail-free drop; structural pains persist.
$BTCMany people ask where BTC can see this wave, but honestly, I don't dare to give a clear target right now.
Recently, news has been mixed, with gold continuing to strengthen, with funds flocking to gold. Now, the key is to distinguish: is it trading with interest rate cut expectations, or funds starting to avoid risk and exit risk assets?
The return of BTC spot ETF funds is the most important signal affecting the market at present; But ETH is very weak, repeatedly moving sideways between 1850 and 1940, unable to drive the market.
On the US side, the market is even more fragmented. Micron, SanDisk, and Hynix have seen a bunch of good news but can't rise much. If prices rise too much earlier and chips are crowded, the good news will be realized, and funds will be realized. On the other hand, Tesla and Rocket have been strong, with funds clustering around a few main themes.
During this stage of extreme market differentiation and cross-asset fluctuations, it's best not to force predictions; wait patiently for verification.
BTC should first focus on whether it can hold at 65,000; if it can, there is a risk of a pullback on Monday; First, look for 63,800 below; if it breaks below valid, aim for 62,000.
The environment has now broken previous expectations; we don't subjectively guess the high, but respond according to key positions.
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key to rate hikes. #黄金升破4300美元, are funds on hold or are they cutting rates or seeking risk? #📊 $ETH合约爆仓速递（8月10日）
根据爆仓数据，这波空头被狗庄按在地上疯狂摩擦了。。。
时间 总爆仓 多单爆仓 空单爆仓
1小时 $5.05万 $2,804.91 $4.77万
4小时 $83.32万 $6,549.05 $82.66万
12小时 $190.61万 $16.07万 $174.54万
24小时 $454.96万 $151.33万 $303.63万
从$ETH爆仓数据看，1小时、4小时、12小时空头爆仓碾压多头，1小时空头是多头的17倍，4小时比例约126倍，12小时比例约10.8倍，逼空行情以核爆级烈度贯穿短中周期；24小时空头仍遥遥领先，比例约2倍，多头反抗力度虽从1小时的2800美元飙升至151万美元，但空头仍以绝对优势主导。狗庄在ETH上完成了对空头的全周期屠杀——短中长周期空头被全方位定向爆破，累计爆仓突破454万美元。空头血流成河，逼空行情势如破竹。大家控制好仓位，别被来回收割。
🔥 市场风向标 | 8月10日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场正在三个不同的战场上，同时演绎"预期差"的残酷定价。
📉 非农意外转负：加息的天平倒向CPI
美国7月非农就业人数意外减少2.3万人，大幅偏离预期的增加5万-14万人。但失业率从4.17%降至4.09%，创2025年6月以来新低。
一份"就业减少、失业率下降"的矛盾报告，让9月加息前景更加扑朔迷离。"新美联储通讯社"直言："这是一份混乱的报告。"CME数据显示，9月加息概率已从57%回落至44%。真正的决定因素不是就业，而是8月12日公布的7月CPI。
💾 存储股财报后下跌：业绩越炸，跌得越狠
闪迪Q4营收89.65亿美元，同比暴增372%；西部数据营收37.47亿美元，同比增44%。然而，闪迪盘后一度大跌逾11%，西部数据大跌超18%。
暴跌的元凶是指引不够乐观——闪迪下季营收指引中值105.5亿美元，低于市场预期。在年内涨幅超460%的背景下，市场已将利好充分计价，平淡的未来指引被解读为负面信号。
AI内存牛市还稳吗？大摩认为最剧烈的调整已接近尾声；但伯恩斯坦指出，存储芯片正逐渐成为AI与非AI应用的成本负担。超级周期的长期逻辑未破，但估值已跑在基本面之前，任何瑕疵都会被无限放大。
🚀 SpaceX解禁后反涨：利空出尽的经典剧本
8月6日，SpaceX首批9.115亿股限售股解禁，可交易股份从6.39亿股增至15.5亿股。此前市场普遍预期将触发抛售潮。
结果股价不跌反涨——解禁当日涨6%，次日再涨约16%，两日累计涨幅约23%。财报后暴跌14%已提前释放解禁压力；空头被迫回补形成买盘。但警报未解除——仍有超2.5亿股被做空。
💎 总结
非农的混乱信号让9月加息的天平倒向CPI；闪迪用372%的增长换来暴跌，证明存储股估值已跑在基本面之前；SpaceX用解禁日的暴涨，演绎了"利空出尽"的经典剧本。8月第一周，三个市场同时以超出预期的方式运行——旧逻辑在崩塌，新定价权在形成，而它惩罚所有"不够完美"的答案。#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Polymarket changed rules to block settlement manipulation
Polymarket changed the settlement method for the short-cycle crypto up-and-down market from single point prices to TWAP average prices, integrating Chainlink Data Streams. Previous research reported that 821 accounts profited about $8.2 million in suspected manipulated settlement windows, with some traders pushing Binance's spot price in the last few seconds to influence the results of 5-minute BTC contracts. This is bearish for Polymarket's short-term platform and beneficial for user protection. The issue reveals the core risk of ultra-short cycle prediction markets: settlement prices are too easily pushed by external spot orders temporarily. Switching to 30-second or 60-second average prices increases manipulation costs, but also means traders cannot focus solely on last-second prices; short-term BTC contracts must pay more attention to settlement rules and order book depth.
Source: CoinDesk
#BTC #LINK #Crypto100W🎯 The Best NFP Result for $BTC & $ETH May Be Somewhere in the Middle
Everyone is asking:
“Will NFP be bullish or bearish for crypto?”
The answer depends on how strong or weak the labor market actually is.
🇺🇸 Forecast: 83K
🔴 Too Strong: >130K
Strong employment could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Higher yields + stronger USD could pressure BTC and ETH.
🟢 Moderate: 60K–100K
This could be the Goldilocks zone.
Labor market cools or remains balanced without showing signs of serious deterioration.
That may avoid both:
❌ Excessive inflation concerns
❌ Recession fears
Potentially constructive for risk assets.
🟢/🔴 Too Weak: <40K
Initially bullish for BTC/ETH because rate-cut expectations may rise.
But if unemployment jumps sharply:
Weak labor market → recession fears → risk-off → crypto selling.
📌 The sweet spot may be a labor market that's cooling, but not collapsing.
That's why I'm watching the entire employment report, not just the headline NFP number.
$BTC $ETH #NFP #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Macro #Fed #CryptoTrading
$BTC $ETH #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound The weekend market is famously exhausting. BTC hovered around 1,910, while SNDK fell to $1,232. Trading volume shrank, volatility narrowed, and the candlestick was as flat as an ECG. Most people choose to close apps and play games, sleep, or spend time with family. I was about to sleep too. But before bed, I glanced at the data on the chain and suddenly sobered up. 📊 First, here's a truth that keeps you awake: although prices didn't change over the weekend, on-chain data was moving—and quietly. In the past 48 hours, BTC and ETH balances on exchanges have continued to decline. Whale addresses have not been closed on weekends and have been withdrawing coins. BTC exchange balances are at their lowest level since 2018, and ETH exchange balances are also declining in sync. In other words: retail investors are sleeping, big funds are working overtime. During the day, traders fear retail investors will follow the trend; on weekends, the sideways market is just the right time to slowly accumulate shares. This is no coincidence; funds are taking advantage of the window of poor liquidity to collect chips at minimal cost. 📊 Historical Patterns: The True Meaning of Weekend Consolidation Over the past year, after BTC and ETH consolidated over the weekend, the probability of a reversal at Monday's opening exceeded 70%. The weekend's sideways movement isn't about "the market having no direction," but rather "the main force is waiting for liquidity to return." Market makers are on holiday, institutions are resting, and the costs of pulling and dumping are both too high. When US stocks open on Monday and liquidity returns to normal, the market will truly reveal its trump cards. 📊 Two scenarios, to be revealed on Monday. Scenario One: Volume surges to break through $65,000. If BTC opens on Monday and immediately rises above 1,9,#Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes. What will Bitcoin do next week? Let me analyze.
Next week is the real make-or-break moment. Whether BTC can hold above 65000 does not depend on the Middle East drama, but on whether Wednesday's CPI shows a bullish or bearish candle.
This week's rally had two driving forces: easing tensions in the Middle East and the negative nonfarm payrolls crushing rate hike expectations. ETH followed the rise but weaker than BTC, with the exchange rate still hovering around 0.029, indicating funds prioritize the large-cap market.
Three major events next Wednesday: CPI, PPI, and retail data all releasing consecutively. The market expects core CPI year-over-year at 3.1%, higher than the previous 3.0%. Tariff pass-through is not fully priced in yet; if it exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations could return at any time, and BTC's rebound peak will be firmly capped at 65000.
Middle East negotiations have dragged on for a week without resolution, causing some panic. My judgment is: short-term no agreement, but a full-scale war is impossible. The reason is simple — the US top-level stance has changed. Bassett publicly said, "The Strait of Hormuz will not return to its previous pattern because Iran is trying to control it." The US side has shifted from "maintaining the status quo" to "acknowledging the changed pattern." As long as Iran does not escalate proactively, the US will not increase its involvement.
For ETH, the elasticity is greater but the double-edged sword is sharper. If CPI is below expectations, ETH has more room to catch up than BTC; if CPI exceeds expectations, 1900 may not hold. Fundamental Research Report $MASK / Mask Network (Other) $3.20
To summarize: Mask Network ($MASK) has an overall score of 51/100, with a rating focused on narrative over implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at projects first: Mask Network (token $MASK), other tracks. Focusing on Web3 social middleware. Benchmarking against ENS and LRC. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commissions, with user data not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven track, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product launch: protocol layer officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
On the user side, address MAU is not disclosed, DAU is not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active individuals; concentrated holdings of large addresses overestimate actual user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy and burn annualized without a burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, protocol profits do not equal token holders profit. Code side: 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look at PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, refer to whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level but do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs; for technical integration, see API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. Using NVIDIA GPUs does not mean NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not mean strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (accounting for +3.50% circulating volume), burn buyback annualized rate, no clear buyback burn. Must you buy coins to use the product? Some need to capture mid-value (staking/discounting/governance). Looking at it together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): Circulating market cap: Mask Network $3.00B, ENS undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. FDV: Mask Network $4.20B, ENS undisclosed, LRC undisclosed. Annualized revenue: Mask Network $2.00M, ENS not disclosed, LRC not disclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Mask Network not disclosed, ENS not disclosed, LRC not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% of the original price, oscillating in a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burn landing, enterprise clients enter, FDV corresponds to P/S, aligning with the top companies. To sum up: solid fundamentals (score 51/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are interrupted, usage collapses). Tracking indicators: protocol fee weekliness, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations over 30% require revaluation.
That's all for now. If you have any thoughts, see you in the comments.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitThe U.S. nonfarm payroll in July experienced a "cliff-like" upset, completely disrupting the Fed's plan to raise interest rates in September
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor dropped a bombshell—nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, while the market had expected an increase of 80,000, but the actual forecast fell short by more than 100,000 (Source: U.S. Department of Labor). Even more chilling, the data for May and June was sharply revised downward: from 129,000 to 63,000 in May, and from 57,000 to 20,000 in June—almost halved and halved again. This means the U.S. job market has long been cold, though previous data was just "beautifying."
The probability of a rate hike has plummeted in response. CME FedWatch tools show that market bets on a rate hike in September have dropped from 67% a week ago to around 44% (data source: CME FedWatch). The rate swap market gives even lower probabilities, only about 40%. U.S. stocks are trading "bad news for good news"—the S&P 500 even hit a new closing high, while the US dollar index fell to its lowest point since May.
But things are far less optimistic than the market has anticipated. Last week, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 9 to 3, and the three officials who voted for rate hikes made it clear: if inflation doesn't slow down, action could be taken as early as September. Now that jobs are collapsing, inflation remains high—cutting rates to stimulate jobs will push inflation higher, and without cuts, you'll see employment shrink continuously. AE Wealth Management's chief economist said this is a "dilemma," but I think it's almost "unsolvable."
I tend to believe the probability of a rate hike in September is actually lower than FedWatch's 44%. The worsening employment data is enough to greatly amplify dovish voices within the Fed, and Powell won't raise rates when employment is clearly weakening. But the problem is—there's still an employment report and two inflation data pieces coming out. If next month's nonfarm returns to positive and inflation remains uncontained, rate hike expectations will rebound instantly. So the market's overly optimistic pricing of "no rate hikes" may be a preemptive move. The Fed is very likely to hold steady in September, but will keep all options in its wording—the real drama will be in November. And this new US stock hit is honestly built on quicksand; once corporate earnings expectations are dragged down by the economic slowdown, the correction will be quite dramatic $BTC $ETH 📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bears are being crushed wildly, but long-term bulls have collapsed instantly...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $17,500, $910.25, $16,500
4 hours: $313,600, $18,000, $295,700
12 hours: $454,800 $80,400 $374,400
24 hours: $6.7721 million, $4.2292 million, $2.5429 million
Looking at $BTC liquidation data, 1-hour, 4-hour, and 12-hour short liquidations crushed the longs. 1-hour short positions were 18 times longer than long positions, 4-hour ratios about 16.4 times, and 12-hour pressures about 4.6 times. Short squeezes with nuclear explosive intensity ran through the short to medium cycle; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with long positions crushing short positions, with bulls 1.66 times the shorts. Dog Maker completed a fierce turnaround from short squeezing to long selling on BTC—short-term short chases were targeted and destroyed, long-term long chases were wiped out all at once, with cumulative liquidations exceeding 6.77 million USD. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 1. The Fed's Rate Expectations Repeatedly Tug (the Most Core)
US employment data fluctuates between strong and weak. The market is betting on a possible rate hike in September while also betting on year-end rate cuts. US Treasury yields fluctuate, and risk assets as a whole lack a clear liquidity direction. BTC, as a risk asset, can only fluctuate within a range.
- Strong employment data → rising expectations for rate hikes→ BTC under pressure has retreated
- Weak nonfarm payroll data → a slight rebound → rate cut expectations rebounded
The back-and-forth between bulls and bears makes it difficult to break out of a one-sided rally.
2. Institutional ETF funds enter a wait-and-see phase
The vote on the US crypto bill CLARITY Act has been postponed to September, so institutional funds are reluctant to increase holdings or exit on a large scale. Inflows and outflows of spot ETFs have slowed down, and with no large funds breaking the range, the market can only consolidate sideways.
3. Geopolitical news interference, increasing the number of pins inserted up and down
Middle East situations repeatedly disrupt risk aversion: during geopolitical tensions, funds flow into gold and crude oil, diverting BTC; When the situation eases, funds flow back into the crypto market, frequently inserting pins to sweep bullish and short leverage, intensifying volatility.
4. Technical analysis enters a key consolidation range
The 64,800–65,000 USD levels above are strong resistance, with multiple rallies only to be pushed back down; Below, 64,000 and 63,500 are short-term supports, with bulls and bears repeatedly battling within this range. Without a breakout or breakout on high volume, the market will continue to fluctuate.
5. Leveraged trading pools consume each other
Frequent short-term long and short liquidations within narrow oscillations have led to back-and-forth cutting of short-term contract funds, further limiting the emergence of a one-sided trend.
Two key observation points to observe for the subsequent breakout of the consolidation
- Results of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in early September (rate hikes/maintenance/rate cuts)
- Latest developments on the U.S. Congressional crypto regulatory bill
In summary, arbitrage volatility isn't enough for fees, so it's better to stay light and observe $BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX SPCX surged close to the IPO price over the weekend: Can $135 hold? Is it still worth chasing more?
This weekend's rally pushed $SPCX to 133.76, just one step away from SpaceX's $135 IPO price.
It looks strong, but the biggest mistake here is to mistake OKX weekend perpetual intraday gains as a confirmed breakout of the Nasdaq cash stock.
SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, with net losses narrowing to $541 million; however, AI capital expenditures also rose to $15.828 billion.
The current market debate is not whether SpaceX is growing, but whether the current valuation can absorb such a pace of investment.
The supply side should not be overlooked either.
The first batch of about 912 million shares has entered the sale window, potentially increasing tradable stock supply by over 140%. However, SpaceX cash shares actually rose 6.1% on the day, indicating the first round of unlocking was temporarily absorbed by the market, but this does not mean subsequent supply pressure has disappeared.
The macro environment has given high-valuation growth stocks a breather.
The CPI announced on August 12 is an important variable to watch next.
Back to the 4-hour structure.
This is the strongest recovery since 104.36, but it cannot yet directly indicate a trend reversal.
The reason is simple:
MA120 is still below MA200 $MU In the coming months, we will continue to increase positions and short positions. Logic: capacity expansion + product updates and iterations. Industry supply-demand balance reaches imbalance, product prices fall, inventory increases iterations (with high operating costs), short-term cyclical industries are ending, and stock prices fall as performance declines (same logic as photovoltaics and lithium batteries back then).I think the market ultimately has no choice but to go sell memory, long optical in the "short term." Actually, some hedge funds already seem to have this position on. There are three main reasons. 1. With Korean leveraged ETFs effectively dead, LPs are in a redemption rush, which could bring out additional sell on flow. 2. Nvidia is nerfing Rubin Ultra's HBM and responding with optics, tying multiple racks together, so that even if Rubin Ultra's per rack performance is not superior to Rubin, at DeFlock is up about +45.3% at its 3-day peak. DeFlock is a Solana memecoin built around the DeFlock anti-surveillance narrative: a real open-source project/app mapping ALPR cameras, while the token itself is community-driven and not endorsed by the project. Right now it is still running on the day, up 82.56% over 24h, but the shorter-term action is choppy. My read: the move came from a real privacy story meeting meme liquidity, and at this size I treat it as narrative momentum with sharp low-cap🚨 One geopolitical headline could become crypto’s next bullish catalyst.
The market is watching the Strait of Hormuz closely.
Talks involving the U.S., Iran, and Oman are reportedly making progress toward a temporary agreement aimed at keeping maritime traffic moving and easing pressure on energy markets.
Nothing is finalized yet — but if tensions continue to cool, the ripple effects could be important for crypto.
Why?
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil trade. If fears of supply disruptions fade, oil prices could stay under pressure. Lower energy costs could help ease inflation expectations and give central banks more room to maintain a supportive policy environment.
And when macro conditions improve, risk assets usually get a second wind.
That could be a meaningful tailwind for crypto.
🔵 $BTC — likely to remain the market leader as institutional confidence and ETF demand strengthen.
♦️ $ETH — potential upside from staking, DeFi, tokenization, and ETF flows.
🟣 $SOL — continuing to benefit from strong ecosystem growth and on-chain activity.
🟡 $BNB — could gain from rising trading activity and broader BNB Chain adoption.
But the bigger picture matters more than any single narrative.
Markets are also watching: • U.S. inflation data
• The Federal Reserve’s next moves
• Continued crypto ETF flows
• Institutional and corporate adoption
• Global liquidity conditions
If several of these pieces fall into place at the same time, crypto could have a much stronger foundation for the next leg higher.
⚠️ The risk?
If Hormuz talks break down or tensions flare up again, oil could spike, inflation fears could return, and investors could quickly become more defensive.
For now, this is a potential bullish macro catalyst — not a guaranteed outcome.
The next major move in $BTC may depend less on crypto headlines and more on what happens in the global economy.
Watch the oil. Watch the Fed. Watch liquidity.
Crypto will follow.
#HormuzTalksAdvance #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB
#DailyOrbit To be honest with you about the SpaceX unlocking, most people probably have it all wrong. On August 6th, 911.5 million shares were unlocked, with a market value exceeding $100 billion. According to the general market expectation before, such a large volume of selling pressure would at least cause the stock price to take a hit, if not crash. So what happened? On the day of unlocking, the stock rose 6%, and on Friday, the non-farm payroll surged nearly 16%, pushing the price above $133. In two day📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $3,318.00 $0 $3,318.00
4 hours $3,330.31 $0 $3,330.31
12 hours: $10,600 $473.95 $10,200
24 hours: $46,600, $5,256,800, $46,100
From $OKB liquidation data, 1-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour short liquidations crushed the bulls, monopolizing 1-hour and 4-hour short positions. The 12-hour short was 21.5 times the bull rate, and the 24-hour short was 87.7 times the bull market. The short squeeze was intense and intense throughout the entire cycle. Short, medium, and long-term cycle bears were targeted and destroyed from all directions. The bulls' only resistance appeared slightly in the long cycle, but it was just a drop in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $46,000. As the platform token of the exchange, OKB's liquidation volume significantly increased today, with the short squeeze flowing like a river of blood and the short squeeze surging like a hot knife through butter. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 💭 The meme coin frenzy has never been about technology—it's just a story that can instantly pierce people's hearts. From $DOGE parodying Bitcoin in 2013, to the sad frog $PEPE, the pink hat $WIF, and then to $BONK igniting the entire chain through airdrops during the Solana bear market—behind every hit is a resonance of minimalist symbols and community sentiment.
🔥 What circulates in the market is not a white paper, but a consensus that "one sentence can make friends understand." Whether it's Musk's $FLOKI, Thailand's Bounce Hippo $MOODENG, or AI-generated $FARTCOIN, they have turned internet memes into financial carriers, giving emotions a price. When $TRUMP rides the election, $SPX mocks the S&P index, or artists engrave meme documents into the blockchain to turn $BOME, what we see is an experiment of emotional branding.
📉 Meanwhile, $SLERF developers unexpectedly destroyed pre-sale models and went viral, and $NEIRO emerged as new favorites from the original Shiba Inu owners—all reveal the truth: here, story matters more than function, identity takes precedence over code. What do you care about: the cat $MEW rebelling among the dogs, or the penguin $PENGU's cross-boundary entering Walmart?
#MemeCoinMeme币的狂欢从不靠技术堆砌，而是一场关于集体情绪的角色扮演🎭。每枚代币都是一张文化名片，一段三秒就能在酒局讲清的“朋友圈故事”。
从2013年$DOGE的柴犬玩笑，到$SHIB自封的“狗狗杀手”，再到$PEPE借悲伤蛙IP席卷网络——它们贩卖的从来不是白皮书，而是共鸣。$BONK在Solana熊市中用空投点燃社区热情，$WIF用一顶粉红毛线帽征服人心，而$PNUT和$MOODENG则将现实宠物的命运与热度直接链上化。就连AI也加入造神运动：$GOAT被机器人迷恋，$TURBO用69美元预算由AI亲手设计，$FARTCOIN干脆让算法自由放飞。
这不是产品的市场，是情绪与信仰的集市。当$ORDI刻下比特币第一行铭文，当$SLERF因误烧预售款意外封神，人们购买的，是一个自己能参与讲述的、简单到荒谬却无比真实的共识故事。
情绪即货币，故事即王座👑
#MemeCoin #BTC
#Crypto#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
BTC 64,980 (+0.36%) | ETH 1,890 (-1.20%)
🧭 A quick overview of emotions and news pages
The market has entered a typical pre-event quiet period: shrinking volume and narrowing amplitude. Both bulls and bears are waiting for next week's Fed decision and core PCE data, which will directly determine the path of rate cuts in September.
Why can't they rise?
1. News: With the FOMC approaching, the market has paused early pricing hawks, and risk assets are generally under pressure;
2. Capital flow: Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for four consecutive days but have failed to push prices; incremental volume is absorbed by selling pressure around the 67,000 level, with heavy trapped positions above;
3. Sentiment: Asian stock markets have weakened for several days, dragging down risk appetite. BTC and Nasdaq correlation have returned to high levels, and independent rallies are temporarily absent;
4. Seasonality: August was one of BTC's most underperforming months in history, with an average increase of less than 1.5% over the past five years for the same period.
Short-term (1-3 days): fluctuating between 63,500-65,500, with unlikely one-sided rallies before FOMC; If 63,500 is breached, it will test the previous low of 62,300.
Medium to long term: Interest rate cuts implemented combined with continued ETF accumulation and supply tightening due to halving; Q4 still targets 70,000-72,000; ETH holds above 1,900 and then targets mid-term recovery at 2,100.
Personal views do not constitute investment adviceSPCX Major Risk Analysis!
Significant Risks Not to Be Ignored (Hidden Dangers of Market Reversal)
This event-driven rebound is not a fundamental turnaround; the project itself has huge hard constraints, which is also the core argument for the bears.
1. Capital Expenditure Black Hole Risk: Phase one’s $16.8 billion is just the start, with a long-term maximum of $119 billion. Massive annual capital expenditures will continuously consume cash flow; if SpaceX’s future free cash flow cannot keep up, the stock price will come under pressure again. The financial reports already reflect this, and the market’s biggest fear is endless large-scale cash burn.
2. Extremely High Difficulty in Chip Manufacturing, No Mature Experience: SpaceX and Tesla lack experience operating advanced wafer fabs; even with Intel’s assistance, every step—advanced process yield, EUV lithography equipment acquisition, engineer recruitment—may face serious delays. The 2028 mass production target has a high probability of being missed. Historically, nearly all global mega wafer fabs have encountered budget overruns and delays.
3. Very Long Revenue Realization Cycle: Small batch production only starts in 2028, with real large-scale profitability expected after 2030. In the next 2-3 years, Terafab will only incur costs without profit contribution, making it a long-term story. The short-term stock price rise is purely speculative.
4. Conflicts in Profit Distribution: Tesla and SpaceX share the factory; how funds are allocated and chip capacity settled is not fully disclosed; there is uncertainty due to potential conflicts of interest between the two companies.
5. Lock-up Pressure Not Over: August 6 was only the first batch of unlocks; circulating shares will continue to expand significantly until the end of 2026. Selling pressure risk is only temporarily masked by news and has not disappeared.
V. Key Follow-up Signals (To Judge Whether the Market Trend Can Continue)
√ Positive Signals (Continued Strength)
1. Terafab officially places large-scale lithography equipment purchase orders, not just conceptual;
2. Large-scale recruitment of core semiconductor engineers, construction progress exceeds expectations;
3. SpaceX Starlink business continues to generate high gross margin cash flow, covering Terafab’s capital expenditures;
4. Institutions raise target prices, incorporating orbital computing business into valuation models.
Negative Signals (Rebound Ends, Weakens Again)
1. Project announces delays and further budget increases;
2. Failure to acquire key EUV equipment, pushing back production timelines;
3. Financial reports show continued deterioration of free cash flow;
4. Large-scale share sell-off announcements by unlocked shareholders.
Summary: The Essence of Event-Driven
The recent rise brought by Terafab is a narrative repair rebound under pessimistic sentiment.
- Short term: News > fundamentals, relying on grand stories to offset the dual negatives of financial losses and lock-up releases;
- Medium to long term: Whether the stock price can sustain depends entirely on whether Terafab can overcome the many difficulties of semiconductor manufacturing and turn the story into real output and revenue; if the project is delayed or over budget, this round of gains will be completely lost!SK Hynix has finally started buying back, but the market may still be dissatisfied.
One of the biggest winners in AI storage, SK Hynix, is ready to unveil:
💰 100 trillion Korean won (about 71 billion USD) in shareholder returns
Among them:
🔥 40 trillion KRW (about $28.4 billion) in stock buybacks
This is roughly equivalent to a 2% share buyback, just enough to offset the dilution from the ADR listing.
Sounds impressive.
But when viewed in the context of global storage wars, the problem arises:
$MU Micron:
A direct commitment to repurchase shares with 100% free cash flow, with the market expecting to repurchase over 40% of shares by 2028.
$SNDK SanDisk:
$15.5 billion repurchase, accounting for about 8.7% of market value.
Kioxia:
$5.5 billion repurchase, accounting for about 3.4% of market value.
And Hynix?
It was more like saying:
"I will take care of the shareholders."
But it hasn't arrived yet:
"I want to crazily return AI dividends to shareholders."
In the AI era, HBM is the moat.
Cash flow buybacks are the answer for investors.
The ultimate competition among the future storage giants:
It's not just about whose chips sell more,
It's about who can turn profits into shareholder returns more.
The storage battle is only just entering a more exciting phase. 🚀 #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $CORECORE Institutional Banking Edition Launched: Does It Have a Real Impact on BTC?
The CORE Institutional Banking Edition (institutional-grade BTCFi solution) is designed for custodial institutions, asset managers, and digital banks to create compliant BTC staking, lstBTC liquidity, and balance sheet yield tools. We break down the impact in layers:
✅ Long-term Positive Value (The Real Logic Benefiting BTC)
1. Solves the Biggest Pain Point for Institutions: Idle BTC Cannot Generate Yield
Many traditional institutions, family offices, and asset managers buy BTC but can only hold it cold without compliant channels to earn yield.
The institutional edition connects with top custodians like BitGo and Hex Trust, supports native BTC time-locked staking without private keys leaving custody, and does not require cross-chain wrapping into WBTC.
Institutions now have a compliant and feasible BTC yield solution, which will increase their willingness to allocate to Bitcoin and attract incremental capital to BTC.
2. Expands Bitcoin Asset Application Boundaries, Strengthening the BTCFi Narrative
Bitcoin has long been criticized for "only having store-of-value attributes and lacking financial functions."
The implementation of CORE institutional tools means institutions can use BTC as collateral for lending, generate liquidity certificates like lstBTC, turning Bitcoin from a pure "digital gold" into a yield-generating asset that produces cash flow, enhancing Bitcoin's acceptance in the traditional financial system.
3. Changes in Capital Behavior: Reduces Spot Selling Pressure
Institutions holding BTC no longer have only the "sell on price rise" option. By staking to earn continuous yield, some long-term institutions will reduce short-term trading frequency, decreasing spot market sell-offs and improving BTC circulating supply structure in the mid to long term.
⚠️ Key Limitations: Why Is It Difficult to Drive a BTC Surge in the Short Term?
1. Long Implementation and Transmission Cycle
Institutions require months or longer for system integration, internal risk control approvals, and capital strategy adjustments. The launch of version one will not immediately bring large institutional funds to buy BTC. Narrative implementation ≠ immediate capital inflow.
2. BTC Price Ultimately Determined Outside the BTCFi Track
The core drivers of Bitcoin's mid-term market are Federal Reserve interest rates, US dollar liquidity, US regulation (CLARITY Act), and ETF capital inflows.
BTCFi is a secondary narrative that can amplify trends but cannot independently reverse macro liquidity to trigger a major bull market. In a macro-tightening environment, a single ecosystem's benefits rarely change the overall market direction.
3. Competition and Capital Diversion Exist
Multiple BTC layer-2 and BTC staking solutions compete simultaneously; institutions will not bet solely on the CORE ecosystem, so incremental capital will be dispersed.
📌 Impact on CORE Itself (Linked Observations)
Institutional staking aiming for higher-tier yields requires pairing with CORE dual staking. This will create sustained CORE buy demand in the long term;
But in the short term, two key validation signals are needed:
① Whether well-known custodians and asset managers officially announce access to the institutional banking edition;
② Whether on-chain staked BTC volume continues to rise.
Without on-chain capital growth, hype is just short-term thematic speculation.
📌 Trader Practical Perspective
1. Before the macro liquidity easing inflection point arrives, do not expect this news alone to drive a unilateral BTC surge;
2. Long-term view: The continuous rollout of BTCFi institutional tools is an important foundational layer for a Bitcoin bull market, a slowly fermenting long-term logic;
3. CORE's price movement is highly tied to BTCFi hype; future focus should be on institutional partnership announcements and on-chain BTC staking data.
Risk Warning: Content is for industry opinion exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and there is uncertainty in technology rollout progress and institutional adoption speed. $BTC$CORE$WBTC#CORE #Bitcoin #BTCFi #InstitutionalCapitalFive days, two days work.
This week's data is out.
The S&P rose 3.58%, and the Nasdaq rose 5.19%. The numbers are decent, but looking at them is interesting—Monday and Tuesday nearly all the gains were wiped out, and the next three days were mostly sideways.
This isn't the first time. This has happened several times this year: once the news comes out, the market closes in two days, and the rest of the time just hangs around. If you wake up and chase it in on Wednesday, you'll basically be stuck in those three days.
The leading stocks are also worth a look. Palantir 39%，Shopify 29%，Oracle 13%，Nvidia 11%。 The first three are application-layer, with funds moving toward where AI can directly receive money. Chips are still important, but the market is starting to choose who can use AI first to make the financial statements look good.
SpaceX is a bit special. It released its first earnings report on Tuesday, the first batch of lock-up unlocks on Thursday, and jumped 15.8% on Friday. The unlocking didn't drop in and instead became a buying point. I thought about it and realized that those who truly wanted to cash out had already left, leaving only those willing to take the long run, plus institutions waiting so long finally found a legitimate entry point.
I flipped through this week's strategy records on hi2morrow; basically, it's heavy positions at the start of the week, reductions starting Wednesday, and small supplements on Friday. It's perfectly timed for the right moment. It's not that I have to follow the rules, but it reminds me of one thing: the truly effective window in the week may only last one or two days; doing too much at other times can lead to mistakes.
I rarely do my own operations. On Tuesday, I reduced my semiconductor position a bit, and on Friday, I added a small amount of spending. Other times, I didn't move.
I'm writing these as records, not as references.Monthly data report. As a tool for streamlining the transfer experience in the TRON ecosystem, GasFree supports users to pay transaction fees directly with USDT within their wallet, enjoying smooth on-chain transfer services without any extra steps.
In July, the platform completed 784,000 GasFree transactions, with monthly transfers totaling $13.42 billion, and the total number of users surpassing 399,000. Continued growth in real-world usage scenarios demonstrates GasFree's value in lowering on-chain operational thresholds. In the future, GasFree will continue to focus on convenient transfer services, allowing more users to enjoy a seamless experience $BTC 📊 $NEAR Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bears are being crushed wildly, but long-term bulls have collapsed instantly...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $650.37 $0 $650.37
4 hours $29,000 $2,540.32 $26,500
12 hours: $47,200, $20,600, $26,600
24 hours: $294,100, $261,000, $33,200
From $NEAR liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour short liquidations crushed the bulls, with 1-hour short positions monopolizing everything. The 4-hour short position was 10.4 times longer than the bulls, and short squeezes unfolded fiercely in the short cycle; the 12-hour direction reversed, with long liquidations overtaking bears, but the proportion was only 1.29 times. The selling was initially strong but weak; the 24-hour long liquidation surged to $261,000, 7.86 times the short sell. On NEAR, Gouzhuang completed a fierce turnaround from short squeezing to long selling—short-term short chases were targeted and destroyed, long-term long chases were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $290,000. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? $SKHYNIX
Analyzing whether Hynix is still a buy
It's not that I suddenly turned bearish on storage. I've been bullish on the storage sector earlier than most people, and the HBM super cycle is still halfway up the mountain.
The problem is the Korean stock Hynix. It's not in the US; it's in Korea. And the Korean market is the most retail-investor-dense and craziest market I've seen in all these years.
Look at how many absurd things have happened recently with Korean stock Hynix. On July 31, the KOSPI surged 17.91% in a single day, and SK Hynix hit the 30% daily limit up. Which mature market's benchmark index jumps 18% in one day?
Then in early August, Hynix can drop drastically over trivial matters, which is not normal volatility at all.
Even more ridiculous: Korea has an alternative trading platform called Nextrade, where Hynix traded only 11 shares pre-market at a price 30% below the previous day's close, directly triggering a limit down. Just 11 shares crashed a trillion-level giant. Then derivatives linked to Hynix on the exchange saw over $60 million long positions forcibly liquidated within two minutes.
This is an asymmetric casino.
What do you face when buying Korean stock Hynix?
A group of leveraged Korean retail investors. A regulatory environment and political risks completely unfamiliar to you.
If you really believe in storage and agree with me, please switch your Hynix holdings to Micron.
Buying Micron means facing Nasdaq, the largest and deepest capital market globally, priced in US dollars, dominated by institutional pricing.
Still storage, still HBM, still benefiting from the AI computing power super cycle.
Wall Street has a target price of 1600 for Micron, with a market cap of 1.36 trillion. This liquidity depth is incomparable to Hynix.
I've firmly decided not to touch Korean stocks anymore.
I used to think it didn't matter where you bought, as long as you got the direction right.
Hynix has taught me a lesson again: even if the direction is right, choosing the wrong market means you still won't make money. Your opponent is not just the company's fundamentals but also market structure, liquidity, and your own nerves.🔥🔥 Big players are bottom-fishing, are you cutting losses? 🔥🔥
I just refreshed the on-chain data, and after reading it, I couldn't sleep.
From July 29 until now, big players have net bought over 20,000 large pies, spending about 1.2 billion USD. At the same time, small retail investors are selling.
The anti-corruption index is 31, still in the fear zone. But big players just buy when they're afraid.
This scene is all too familiar. Last year, I was the one selling it too. I fell so much I panicked, cut it in one go, and it rebounded the next day. After cutting the meat, watching the price go up, that feeling is worse than losing money—at least losing money means you know where you went wrong, but cutting before dawn doesn't even know who to curse.
Now it's even more divided. ETFs have been flowing in for five consecutive days, but the flow has slowed down—shrinking from 3,800 Bitcoin to 1,500. The funding rate has just turned positive from negative, indicating the bulls are starting to return but don't dare to add leverage. Everyone is waiting for Wednesday's CPI. Bitcoin is stuck at 65,000, trading volume has been cut by 35%, like a midnight convenience store, with lights on but no one coming.
The money of a big player isn't borrowed; it can be sustained. If your money is a contract deposit, if you can't bear it, then you can't bear it.
My choice: don't chase or sell. If 65,000 can't go up, just wait; if it drops, place orders near 63,800. Don't bet on direction, just on patience.
"The most aggressive market shakeout isn't about crashing the market, but about making you wash yourself out."
What about you? Will you follow the big players in buying this spot, or run first for the sake of respect?
$BTC $ETH #欧意星球The temperature inside the Geely suit had already soared to a critical point, his right eye pressed close to the scope, and the market in the lens looked like a silent ruin covered by a thermal imager.
The target was originally expected to step into the absolute kill zone before the summer recess, but politicians on Capitol Hill hit the brakes—the Senate vote on the CLARITY bill was directly postponed to September. In the sniper's manual, this is called "target changing stealth routes, drastically shifting wind direction, and entering a blind spot for three months."
Senate majority leaders shout over the radio that this is still a "priority," but for observers lurking in the grass, it's just a tactical smokescreen covering a retreat. Democrats have added layer upon layer of complex restrictive rules to the kill chain—public officials conflict of interest limits, strong fraud prevention shelters; while the old guys of traditional banks are huddled behind concrete fortresses, trembling at the ballistic deviations of yield-generating products and stablecoins. As long as the bill cannot present a compromise before September, the standards for penalties for decentralized finance, sovereign tokens, and the entire market structure will remain suspended, like a blind bullet ready to deflect at any moment.
Armored convoys from heavy agencies are quietly moving onto the chain under the cover of night, with big money demanding a clear set of federal combat orders; otherwise, no one dares to show themselves in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the $XEWY targets involved in this political tug-of-war are now exposed to crossfire.
In the sight's precision mark, $XEWY's energy pulses were rapidly decaying, and the market linkage curve was clearly shaking violently with the bad news of the bill's delay. This was not an attack signal; it was a typical tentative swing at the edge of a bunker after the prey was startled. Constrained by the policy black box, $XEWY's volatility was forcibly locked in the narrow tactical tunnel; any attempt to break through without ammunition support could trigger a second stamp.
Rookies are most prone to mistakes at this moment: their fingers go numb from lurking too long, blindly pulling the trigger, dumping bullets into a fog without clear vision, ultimately exposing their position and getting shot in the head by the high-level liquidation mechanism.
A true shooter only looks at the profit-loss ratio.
Without a definite regulatory framework, every capital impulse flowing into the market is accompanied by extremely high high-altitude wind speed interference. Wind speed 12 knots, deviation speed at the triple threshold; before the September Senate reshowdown, any impulsive shooting is meaninglessly consuming extremely precious funds and ammunition.
The safety plug is pushed back into the locking position, the needle is withdrawn, and the respiratory rate drops to four times per minute.
Before September, keep the bullets in the magazine.#CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window has been moved backward
With the CLARITY Act extended again, the market's biggest disappointment may not be "a month late," but rather that expectations for regulatory certainty have been pushed back by another step.
My view is: I believe this delay is a short-term bearish sentiment, but that does not mean the bill has failed. The real problem is that all parties have yet to find a balance of interests.
The reason is simple.
If it were just a matter of timing, the market wouldn't react much. But the core issue now is that regulatory interests are being redistributed after the crypto industry enters the mainstream financial system.
On one hand, the Democratic Party is more concerned about public officials' holdings and issuance of digital assets, as well as risks such as consumer protection and market manipulation; On the other hand, traditional financial institutions are also concerned about stablecoin returns and whether changes in market structure will affect their own interests.
In other words, the debate is no longer about "whether to regulate crypto," but rather:
Who will define the rules of the crypto market for the next decade.
This is also why advancing the CLARITY Act will be more difficult than the market expects.
From an industry perspective, I believe the most important thing is not when the bill will pass, but whether the final version can solve three problems:
First, the regulatory boundaries of exchanges.
If centralized exchanges still cannot obtain a clear licensing path, uncertainty in the U.S. market will not truly disappear.
Second, stablecoin rules.
Stablecoins serve as a bridge connecting traditional finance and the on-chain economy. If the yield mechanism and issuance rules remain unclear for a long time, large-scale capital inflows will still be restricted.
Third, DeFi innovation space.
If regulation focuses solely on risk without leaving clear space for non-custodial protocols and developers, it may limit the next round of infrastructure innovation.
So this postponement, I will not change my judgment of the long-term trend of the crypto industry.
In the short term, the market may fluctuate due to cooling regulatory expectations; But in the long run, what truly drives industry development is not a single bill, but more and more traditional capital entering the chain.
My strategy is not to suddenly adjust positions just because of a September extension.
Rather than betting on a single day of passage, I am more focused on the signals the bill will ultimately release:
If the U.S. chooses to establish clear rules, exchanges, stablecoins, and compliant assets will have greater room for growth;
If the delay continues, the market may face even longer periods of uncertainty.
What the crypto industry truly needs is not just "allowing existence," but a system of rules that allows institutions to participate with confidence and where innovation can continue.
The CLARITY delay is only a matter of time; the real game is just beginning.$RE /USDT is showing a strong bullish move, trading around 0.43778 USDT with a +12.10% gain. The displayed volume/liquidity figure is approximately $6.43M, significantly higher than several other coins shown, while the reference price sits near 0.43748. This combination of strong price appreciation and a larger displayed market figure makes RE one of the interesting names on the list. Traders will now be watching whether buyers can keep price above the current area and build another leg upward. If momentum fades, profit-taking could create volatility. For now, RE remains firmly positive and deserves attention as the market searches for its next major direction.
#AIMemoryStressTest #WesternUnionStablecoin #RussiaCryptoLawSep1 📊 Market Analysis
Bitcoin Is Testing the $65K Zone
Bitcoin is currently testing the $65,000 area, while the broader crypto market shows signs of recovery. Recent U.S. economic data has also influenced expectations around monetary policy, adding another factor for traders to watch.
The important question is whether BTC can hold this area and build momentum, or whether sellers will push the price back below support.
🎯 Key Takeaway:
Don't focus on one candle. Watch support, resistance, volume, and the broader market structure before making conclusions.
«This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.»
#SoulpenOrbit #MarketAnalysis #Bitcoin #Crypto #Web3Lucas's Journey to Becoming a Pro Trader #4 In recent weeks, the market has been waiting for Fed news and inflation figures, with Gold and Nasdaq experiencing quite strong fluctuations I'm currently running CFDs with a quick in-and-out style on Gold: entering short, closing quickly when there's a wave Previously, I used a large public pool; when the market jolted strongly, slippage was high, and execution prices deviated a lot. The quick strategy was clearly affected Now I've switched to a privaThe 65,400 level has yet to be recovered, but $SOL's rebound has already entered a profit-locking phase: OKX is at about 65,091 in the upper $BTC, and the previous confirmation level has yet to be recovered.
Unity Academy has significantly reduced $SOL long positions, and Traderbamp has also secured its first target; Both emphasize turning unrealized profits into position protection, rather than chasing the second phase.
Chroma is more patient on $BTC: encountering resistance at high levels does not mean immediate shorting; a clearer path is to wait for the weekly chart to sweep higher and then fall back below resistance, or wait for confirmation of the downside structure. Bulls want to hold steady, while bears are just waiting for confirmation.
Overall judgment: $BTC Only when the closing price breaks above 65,400 will this wave be considered a trend continuation; If it falls below 65K again, strong positions like $SOL should prioritize reducing frequency and promoting breakeven protection. There is no publicly verifiable catalyst in this round, so $NEAR's existing take-profit plan is not considered an opportunity. Will you first hold onto floating profits, or wait for 65,400 to be confirmed before adding positions?
These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment adviceIf every bull market (small bull market) starts with signs,
I saw a very positive signal.
That is the launch of platform tokens.
1) OKB has already made an early move and is stabilizing at a high level of consolidation, with little negative feedback. The previous rallies are different. If it were just a short run, it would have already turned downward.
2) If it's just OKB rising, I wouldn't think it's a good sign. So tonight, I saw BNB kick off and have already broken through the previous small range of oscillation range.
If I remember correctly, every bull market (mini bull) in the past was always triggered by the platform coin.
It's like brokerages acting as the flag bearers in a bull market in the stock market.
The transfer of stored funds is not limited to SPACEX, but also to Crypto.
So, everyone can look forward to it a little.
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable? 🔥The CLARITY Act is back to life.
Just when everyone thought there was no chance before the August recess, the Senate official—Thune—suddenly submitted a motion for final argument. In plain language: he wanted to push the bill before the Senate voted on it again, hoping to get the bill to the ballot table.
This stands in stark contrast to the recent news of the "Senate postponing vote." At that time, market sentiment was quite gloomy, with the regulatory vacuum feeling stretched into September or even later. Now, Thune's move is essentially telling the market: don't rush to end the show—some people still haven't given up.
But there's a key detail here that needs to be clarified.
A motion for final argument does not mean the bill has passed. It is just a step in the legislative process, aimed at ending the debate and moving to the final vote. Whether it succeeds depends on whether there are enough votes in the Senate to support the "end debate." If there are divisions within the Republican Party or if Democrats oppose it, the motion will still be blocked.
So the current situation is: optimists see hope, cautious people see uncertainty.
For the crypto community, this news is definitely on the positive side in the short term.
What the crypto world lacks most right now isn't capital, but certainty. ETF issuers, institutional funds, and even retail investors are all waiting for a clear regulatory framework. Although the CLARITY Act isn't perfect, at least it gives the market a 'rule of the game.' Thun pushing the motion to conclude the argument at this time shows that the legislative battle is still ongoing, not the 'complete shelving' that everyone previously thought.
If the final hearing passes and the bill enters the final vote, and is highly likely to pass, the crypto community may experience a wave of emotional recovery. BTC is currently at 64,000 points, and above that, it's lacking this catalyst.
But if the final argument motion is rejected, the previous pessimistic expectations will be doubled down. The market will interpret this as "not even the last chance," officially confirming the extension of the regulatory vacuum.
My advice for trading:
Don't rush to chase after the long list just because of this news. The final debate motion result hasn't been announced yet; chasing in now is just gambling on politics. Once the voting results are finalized, see whether it's a "procedural advancement" or "blocked again," then decide the direction.
Spot traders, if your position isn't heavy, you can keep holding, but don't open new positions. Contract traders should be especially careful—these political events-driven volatility is even more aggressive than you might think.
There will be CPI next Tuesday, and that's the real tough challenge. The CLARITY Act is sentimental, CPI is fundamentals. Sentiment can be boosted temporarily, but fundamentals can set the direction.
One last thing I want to say.
Thun chose an interesting timing to push for the final argument motion. In the last few days before the August recess, he acted just when everyone thought there was no chance. Political maneuvering is often like this: calm on the surface, but turbulent undercurrents underneath. Crypto traders must learn to watch Washington's card tables while watching candlesticks.
Do you think Thun can push the motion to finalize this time? Let's talk in the comments.Today, the United States released its latest nonfarm payroll data. The market had originally expected 80,000 new jobs. The result is not a little less. Instead, it directly reduced 23,000 jobs, far below market expectations. After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields quickly retreated, and traders began to reprice Federal Reserve policy. As employment starts to weaken, the Fed's justification for further rate hikes is also fading. Many people think this is just macro news. The ones truly affected are actually AI. This year, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon plan to invest hundreds of billions of dollars to build AI infrastructure. Data centers, GPUs, storage, power ...... Almost every one requires substantial financing. If the U.S. stops raising interest rates, or even starts cutting rates in the future, The biggest cost of AI—capital costs—will decrease. So, this nonfarm payroll affects more than just employment. It affects whether AI can continue to be invested in frenziedly in the future.SanDisk traded sideways over the weekend, and Wall Street said this was a buying opportunity fueled by excessive panic
I still have a long position on SanDisk opened on Thursday at 1212, and currently there's a slight floating profit at 1217. No US stocks on weekend, trading volume has dropped to freezing points, and the price has been fluctuating between 1214 and 1222. This kind of trading pattern is actually pretty boring for someone like me with a position, but it has its benefits—at least it hasn't dropped down
I've been flipping through analyst reports these past few days, and the conclusions are quite interesting. After the earnings report, SanDisk dropped at most 18%, but Wall Street's attitude was overwhelmingly one-sided—Barclays directly said this was a "buy on dip" opportunity, Citi had a 90-day short-term buy rating, and Evercore's target price was 3100 not lowered. Their logic is this: SanDisk now has 10 long-term contract contracts, with a minimum guaranteed income of 93.9 billion, customers have put in 16.5 billion in margin, and the CEO says we can see demand for over four years. If these numbers are true, then the current price of 1217 is indeed driven by panic
Of course, analysts can't be fully trusted. At the beginning of the year, when their target price was 2200, SanDisk peaked at 2400, but when it actually hit 2400, they raised the target to 3100. Anyway, they always chase the price. What I'm more concerned about is that the 1167 level hasn't been broken twice, and 1186 bounced back after just one step. The 1200-1220 range is a shift between bulls and bears, with trading volume getting smaller. When US stocks open on Monday, it's very likely to show direction Behind gold's breakthrough to $4,300 lies institutional squeeze caused by sovereign credit de-dollarization and the resonance of risk asset levels, with the key contradiction being the Fed's policy shift in pace and the renewed tug-of-war between inflation stickiness.
U.S. Treasury yields and the US dollar index fell in tandem after ADP data dropped to 44,000 and the nonfarm payrolls turned negative, pushing the probability of rate hikes from over 60% down to around 50%. This directly lowered the cost of holding interest-free assets, prompting funds to rebuild long positions at the $4,300 level.
The S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs simultaneously, and combined with the push forward of the Middle East navigation agreement leading to a drop in oil prices, this indicates that the equity market is digesting the positive side of peak interest rates and is not panic-pricing in recession risks.
The central bank made a net purchase of 289 tons of gold in Q2, surging over 60% year-on-year. Combined with nearly 90% of reserve managers' expectations of increased holdings, this has built a de-dollarization bottom for prices. In contrast, Bitcoin is oscillating around 65K and sentiment is extremely fearful, with ETF funds alternating in hedging and not yet enjoying the revaluation premium of sovereign credit assets.
The upward scenario depends on deepening rate cut expectations and further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield, with bullish momentum driving prices to continue the breakout momentum; The signal that this scenario fails is a sudden liquidity squeeze in the US market, triggering cross-market bullish cash flow.
The downward scenario is triggered by sticky inflation. If next week's U.S. CPI data exceeds expectations, it will force terminal interest rate expectations to be revised upward, causing technical profit-taking and wide volatility at the $4,300 level; The signal that this scenario fails is that central bank buying is forcibly taking up and blocking the downtrend during the pullback.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether the U.S. CPI inflation data will trigger a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, as well as the intensive turnover of gold at the $4,300 level.
#Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?So far, the crypto market has experienced intense two-way shakeouts in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $332 million. There are also recommendations to prevent forced liquidations at the end, which you really need to read carefully.
The characteristics of this liquidation are: a long stamp (triggered by a plunge in the US storage sector) and a short squeeze (triggered by $ENA whale lock-ups).
1. Core Clearing Data Statistics from the Past 24 Hours
Current total liquidation volume across the network: $332,000,000
*Long liquidation: $215 million (64.7%)
*Short liquidation: $117 million (35.3%)
Top 15 Coins by Liquidation Amount:
[01] $BTC (Bitcoin)
● Liquidation amount: $112 million
● Nature: Long positions account for 68%. The $60,500 support level breaks to trigger a chain stop loss.
[02] $ETH (Ethereum)
● Liquidation amount: $74 million
● Nature: Long positions account for 72%. Funds form a stamp around the $2,400 level.
[03] $SOL (Solana)
● Liquidation amount: $45 million
● Nature: Two-way liquidation. After being boosted by Circle Arc's positive news, it was driven down by the main market, with leverage around $75 being cleared.
[04] $ENA (Ethena)
● Liquidation amount: $31 million
● Nature: Bear Stampede. Due to a large stake of 40 million tokens, the bear was killed near $1.30.
[05] $AR (Arweave)
● Liquidation amount: $18.5 million
● Nature: Long positions liquidated. Affected by the sharp drop in SNDK (-11%), long positions with stop-losses below $48.
[06] $XRP (Ripple)
● Liquidation amount: $12 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Profit-taking after Visa payment expectations are digested.
[07] $DOGE (Dogecoin)
● Liquidation amount: $9,800,000
● Nature: Long market liquidation. Musk-related asset sell-off triggered by SpaceX's unlock news.
[08] $FIL (Filecoin)
● Liquidation amount: $7,200,000
● Nature: Long liquidation. The storage sector collectively declined.
[09] $PEPE (Pepe)
● Liquidation amount: $6,500,000
● Nature: Long liquidation. Risk aversion is rising, and meme coin liquidity is rapidly withdrawing.
[10] $XLM (Stellar)
● Liquidation amount: $5,400,000
● Nature: Two-way liquidation. Western Union's positive news has been exhausted, and increased volatility has hit both sides of leverage.
[11] $ORDI (Ordinals)
● Liquidation amount: $4,100,000
● Nature: Long liquidation. Affected by $BTC weakness, the inscription sector pulled back.
[12] $LINK (Chainlink)
● Liquidation amount: $3,800,000
● Nature: Long liquidation. Despite the positive Arc technology, it failed to withstand macro sell-offs.
[13] $TIA (Celestia)
● Liquidation amount: $3,200,000
● Nature: Long liquidation. Modular narrative shows weakness in volatile markets.
[14] $AVAX (Avalanche)
● Liquidation amount: $2,900,000
● Nature: Long liquidation. Large capital flows to the more certain $SOL.
[15] $WIF (dogwifhat)
● Liquidation amount: $2,500,000
● Nature: Long liquidation. Inertia liquidation of high-beta assets.
2. Why did such a massive liquidation occur within 24 hours?
1. Macro risk aversion and correlated sell-offs: Gold's return to $4,200 has drained market liquidity. When the S&P 500 added $2.1 trillion in market cap and BTC stagnated, high-leverage bulls began to exit due to loss of patience, triggering a chain of unwinding positions.
2. Liquidity "phishing": Institutions used positive news like $ENA staking to create local rallies, then capitalized on SNDK's pullback at the US market open, stabbing downward and precisely harvesting the "smart money" hovering near support levels.
3. Experience and elite-level warnings for explosion-proof silos
As an analyst, I offer the following three iron rules:
1. Reject cross-margin risk hedging across currencies
Many traders tried to hedge by opening long $SOL positions when $AR was losing money today. But in this highly correlated market in August 2026, SNDK's crash will instantly drag down all relevant channels, causing cross margin accounts to instantly drop to zero.
*Warning: In extreme market conditions, switch to isolated margin mode to keep losses within a single position.
2. Avoid stop-loss settings near "liquidity black holes."
Institutions prefer to reverse needle draws 50-100 points below the integer threshold (such as $60,000 or $2,400).
*Tip: Stop-loss orders should be set outside the volatility range below technical support (ATR multiplier), not just at the support level.
3. Strictly control the leverage ratio and the "liquidation price" gap
In the $332 million liquidation, over 80% of orders used more than 20x leverage.
*Experience: As long as gold stays above $4,000, the market is in a period of extreme volatility. Leverage should be kept within 5x, ensuring that the liquidation price has a buffer of more than 30% compared to the current price.
Summary: Today's liquidation amount is a typical "post-earnings positioning adjustment" cost. Don't blindly short when the $ENA rises, and don't hold onto long positions during the storage sector ($AR, $FIL) during a decline. Hold your principal and wait for the sentiment in gold and the US semiconductor sector to bottom out #$BTC $ETH $MSTR Woah. One of the biggest public bulls on memory just sold all his memory stocks. This is quite interesting. For the past few months, if you mentioned anything bearish on memory without having a position (short or long) the comments from people who seemingly got on the train at $700-$800 would decimate you. “You missed the run. You don’t get it. You’re jealous.” Instead of actively engaging with some basic bear cases (memory optimization, prices peaking, supply coming online) you just got pushb$RECALL /USDT is showing a major bearish move today, with the perpetual contract down 12.19%. The last price is approximately 0.04381 USDT, while the displayed reference price is around 0.0437 USDT. The market has recorded roughly $3M turnover, showing meaningful activity despite the relatively smaller trading volume compared with some other coins on the list. The sharp decline indicates sellers have gained strong short-term control and traders are now watching for signs of stabilization. If buyers manage to defend the current price area and create a strong rebound, RECALL could attempt to recover part of today’s losses. However, continued selling could expose the token to another leg lower. The key factor now is whether volume supports a reversal or confirms further downside. With a 12.19% daily decline, RECALL has clearly entered a high-volatility zone where the next reaction from buyers could determine the short-term trend.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #Polymarket20BValuation #RussiaCryptoLawSep1