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#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future?
SpaceX's first batch of restricted shares was unlocked, with up to about 911.5 million shares entering the sellable window. The market was originally waiting for the unlocking to be sold, but the stock price rose about 6% instead of falling.
My understanding is that it's still too early to say "the negative news from the unlocking has been digested"—it's more like blowing up the short positions before the price drops. After the earnings report, high capital expenditure, losses, and massive unlocking have led to widespread market bearish expectations, with many funds shorting in advance. When the actual unlock is realized, selling pressure doesn't appear immediately; instead, the stock price rises, making it easy to trigger short covering and stop-losses, further amplifying the gains.
The real test comes after the short squeeze ends. If the unlocking chips gradually release and the stock price comes under pressure again, this rally seems more like creating liquidity for selling; If it can continue to withstand selling pressure, it will show that the negative news from the unlocking has truly been digested by the market.
So this 6% increase only means the bears lost first, but it doesn't mean the bulls have already won.#Gold breaks above $4300, is the capital betting on rate cuts or safe haven?
$XAU Gold has surged wildly, hitting $4339 yesterday, with a weekly gain of over 7%. Many are already discussing whether gold has entered a new super cycle?
I think this gold rally is not just a simple technical breakout, but more like a global capital process of rediscovering safe assets.
Why do I say this?
First, U.S. employment data has clearly cooled down, and the market is starting to trade on expectations of a Fed pivot. Weaker employment means less pressure for rate hikes, putting pressure on the dollar and real interest rates, and gold’s favorite environment is low interest rates + weak dollar.
Second, global market uncertainty remains very high. Geopolitical risks, energy prices, #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound $BTC stood at $64,981, $ETH closed at $1,915, both rebounding but still far from their all-time highs. The market is not short of positive narratives: spot ETFs continue to attract funds, governments in multiple countries are embracing digital assets, traditional banks are ramping up their investments in blockchain, yet prices remain stuck below key resistance levels and fluctuate repeatedly. For this round of market to truly break through, it can't be achieved with just a few Twitter push orders. The core variable remains the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Once the rate-cut cycle clearly begins, U.S. Treasury yields fall, dollar liquidity flows back into risk assets, and every past crypto bull market has been accompanied by a significant expansion of macro liquidity. Without water, no matter how good the story is, it can't push the price. The highs of the past two crypto cycles both corresponded to the turning point of the Fed's transition from tightening to easing, and this time is no exception. The flow of funds for ETFs is another cornerstone. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, and demand for Ethereum ETFs is steadily rising. Institutional buying directly creates a bottoming effect in the spot market, while continuously extracting circulating tokens, causing the supply-demand gap to widen over time. What truly drives the price to new highs isn't retail investors' sentiment, but the continued buying by these whales. The entry paths for traditional finance are also becoming more widespread. Banks have launched stablecoin services, custodied digital assets, and tokenized real-world assets—these moves have transformed blockchain from a speculative tool into financial infrastructure, with $ETH being the biggest beneficiaries of this narrative. #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?A green candle does not mean the entire market is improving 🚨
This rally looks impressive, but beneath the surface, liquidity choices are becoming increasingly cautious.
Funds are not flowing into all altcoins but are rotating among a small group of winners, with most projects quietly losing relative strength.
The data actually makes it very clear:
📉 Open interest has started to cool
📊 Trading volume remained stable
This indicates that the market is in a state of disciplined holding rather than a full-blown celebration.
Traders no longer chase every impulse but concentrate their funds on the patterns with the highest confidence. Smart money is carefully selecting, not blindly casting a net.
🟢 Assets are attracting new liquidity
$JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
🔵 Core coins leading the market
$BTC — The largest liquid magnet
$ETH — The favorite of institutional funds
$SOL — A leader in high Beta Layer 1
$DATA — AI infrastructure narrative
$WLD — AI and digital identity track
$HYPE — A thermometer of risk appetite
$ZEC and $DOGE — a barometer of retail investor sentiment
🔴 Projects still struggling to attract funds
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
The biggest advantage of this market isn't predicting when the next big bullish candlestick will come, but clearly seeing where the capital is flowing.
When capital becomes picky, relative strength matters more than hype stories. The strongest trends attract more liquidity, while weak projects may continue to underperform even when the market rises.
During this phase of the cycle, there's no need to chase every green candle; just quietly follow the direction of the funds.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #Trading #Liquidity #MarketStructure #DeFi #Web3Markets finished the week with a major shift: US labour weakness just loosened financial conditions.
July payrolls unexpectedly fell 23,000 versus +80,000 expected, while May and June were revised down by another 103,000. The Fed’s September hike probability dropped to about 44%.
That pushed the US 10Y yield down to 4.649%, the 2Y to 4.245%, and DXY to 99.50. For #Bitcoin and wider #Crypto, lower yields + a weaker dollar is the liquidity combination we wanted to see.
Equities confirmed the risk-on move: S&P 500 +0.62% to a record close, Nasdaq +1.30%, Dow +0.28%. Corporate earnings remain a major support—85.1% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates.
But there is one problem.#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Let’s talk about the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data, because honestly, I was stunned after seeing the numbers.
Payrolls came in at -23,000, versus expectations of +80,000 — a massive miss of more than 100,000 jobs. On top of that, May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. The previous two months were already being revised lower, and now the latest reading has turned negative.
The message is pretty clear: the labor market is cooling much faster than expected.
But there’s a major contradiction.
The unemployment rate actually fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. So we’re seeing employment contract while the unemployment rate declines. Wage growth also slowed sharply, with monthly wages rising just 0.1%.
That gives the Fed a very complicated picture.
Following the report, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike dropped from above 50% to around 44%. Investors are increasingly questioning whether the Fed can realistically continue tightening if the labor market keeps weakening.
Then came the interesting part: the market didn’t rally across the board — it split.
$XAU broke above $4,370, with futures closing around $4,399.7, pushing back toward the $4,400 level.
The logic is straightforward:
Weak employment → lower odds of rate hikes → softer dollar → stronger gold.
For gold, this was a very clear bullish signal.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus
#AIMemoryStressTest
#SpaceXUnlockRebound $ETH A whale is also deeply trapped! Ethereum only needs to rise 13% more and it will be liquidated!
I analyzed his position.
The position cost was 1700, but transaction records show that on June 26, it made a large number of short positions on Ethereum.
This means its original cost price was far above 1700, and on June 26, it already had a very good floating profit.
But this whale continued to open large short positions on June 26, clearly intending to sell the market.
However, even after the sell-off, there was no profit taken!
On June 26, Ethereum's price rebounded from the bottom, rising from 1500 to nearly 2000, trapping this whale and currently with unrealized losses of just over 10 million.
The liquidation price is at 2185, meaning if the current price rises by 13.5% more, its position will be overwhelmed.
Based on the current trend, if you don't increase margin, the probability of liquidation is very high.
#非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes #存储股财报后续跌. Is the AI memory bull market stable? #财报观察员: After the lock-up rebound, what is SpaceX's outlook? Gold breaks out. Bitcoin holds. AI storage enters the “prove the returns” phase.
A fresh market view from 1011 Insider Whale agent Garrett Jin highlights three important shifts:
GOLD Gold has broken out of its previous consolidation range and is now viewed as a potential long-term allocation opportunity.
The core thesis remains unchanged: a long-term weakening trend in the U.S. dollar could continue supporting gold.
BITCOIN Since BTC approached the $57,700 low in July, the market has continued to satisfy key bottom-building conditions.
No change in stance: BTC positions established around $60K are still being held.
AI STORAGE The long-term demand story remains strong, but the short-term setup has changed.
Garrett Jin previously favored accumulating storage chips on pullbacks. After the market rallied without giving that pullback, he sold half of the rebound positions.
Not because the thesis is broken—but because the latest upside appears increasingly driven by capital structure and positioning.
The bigger issue is leveraged Korean storage ETFs. JPMorgan estimates exposure has fallen 66% from the peak, while another calculation puts the decline closer to 38%. Either way, leverage has weakened—but has not disappeared.
And the demand story remains powerful:
• SK Hynix 2026 capacity reportedly sold out
• Micron orders extend toward 2028
• AI storage demand could remain strong into H2 2027
But storage is still a cyclical industry.
After several hundred-percent rallies, valuation expansion alone becomes harder to sustain.
The AI investment cycle may now be moving from:
CAPEX → EXPECTATIONS → REVENUE VERIFICATION
The market is no longer simply asking:
“Who is spending the most on AI?”
It is starting to ask:
“Who can actually turn that spending into revenue?”
That shift could define the next phase of the AI trade.
$BTC $XAU
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #Gold4300EasingOrHedge Memory stocks continued to come under pressure after earnings reports. Although SanDisk and Western Digital previously delivered better-than-expected results, the market is more focused on next quarter's guidance, profit margins, and whether AI storage demand can continue to support high valuations; In the latest market moves, storage-related stocks such as SanDisk, Western Digital, Micron, and SK Hynix have continued to decline, contrasting with the overall rebound in US tech stocks. Meanwhile, SK Hynix's board approved a capacity expansion plan worth about 54.3 trillion won to build advanced memory capacity in South Korea's Yongin and Cheongju, indicating the company still bets on long-term growth in AI memory demand; Some institutions also maintain overweight ratings for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics and have raised their cloud capital spending growth forecasts for 2027. Market disagreement is: is the current pullback a phase of shakeout in the long-term AI memory cycle, or is the expansion cycle, cautious guidance, and high valuation pressures putting the "supply shortage" narrative into a realization phase?Pick the "perfect" coin, hold it for 30 days, and watch it do absolutely nothing. At the same time $ADA runs 20 percent in a week.
That is exactly what this market feels like right now.
$BTC is hanging around 64k, still about 48 percent below its all time high. Capital has not left. It has just gotten picky.
Meme coins are waking up. $PONS, $WKC, $HEI are starting to heat up. Privacy is moving under the radar too. $ZEC is up 12 percent on the week and $XMR is breaking out.
On the other side, $ONDO and the RWA group are down about 10 percent. $XRP, $SUI, $PE are just chopping sideways.
There are two ways to read this.
First, smart money is rotating. Narratives are still working if you are in the right sector at the right time.
Second, this is just liquidity moving around. Until $BTC reclaims its peak, we are not getting a true broad altseason.
What I am seeing looks more defensive. Money is going into privacy and even $XAUT is up 7 percent this week. That is not risk-on euphoria. That is capital looking for safety.
Altseason is not dead. It is fractured. You do not win by buying one "good" coin and hoping for a mega pump next month. You win by picking the right group while liquidity is in it.
If you could only hold one coin until month end, which one are you choosing?
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge #AIMemoryStressTest #ColdcardLossesGrow Oil prices rebounded after just two days of decline, and the Hormuz agreement hasn't been signed yet—your hands, those who are bottom-fishing BTC, should put them aside for now
A couple of days ago, did you feel—
Oil prices have fallen, inflation is coming down, the Fed is about to loosen its stance, and BTC is about to take off?
And then?
On August 7, Brent crude oil rose 5.04% in one day, dropping from $79 straight down to $83.45.
On August 8, prices continued to rise, with WTI closing at $78.18 and Brent at $83.55.
Oil prices had only fallen for three days, but then rose again for two days.
Your heart, which just started to warm up, must have cooled down again, hasn't it?
Here's the story—
On August 4, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent declared: "Today or tomorrow, we can reach the Hormuz Agreement." ”
The market went crazy. WTI fell 5.7% to $75.77 in one day, and Brent dropped 5.3% to $79.36. Inflation concerns eased instantly, risk appetite recovered, and the crypto market rose broadly.
The good days lasted...... Less than 48 hours.
On August 5th, the agreement was not signed.
On August 6, Iran's parliamentary committee reviewed a motion to restrict passage for US and Israeli ships, causing Brent crude oil to rise again by more than $3 to $82.49.
On August 7, the Houthi forces attacked Saudi Arabia, causing oil prices to continue soaring.
The market spent three days pricing in all the optimistic expectations of an "agreement imminent." Then they discovered—what about the agreement?
What is the situation now?
Good news: Iranian officials say the overall framework of the agreement has been clarified. Iran and Oman have reached consensus on the geographic coordinates of the shipping lane. The United States says the blockade of Iranian ports will be lifted once the agreement is announced.
Bad news: Iranian President Pezeshiziyan said—"Iran has made no concessions in the negotiations." ”
No concessions.
Then tell me, how do you sign the agreement?
Iran's plan states: ships from hostile countries are prohibited from passing through the strait, with fines up to 20% of the value of the goods imposed. The U.S. demands free, fee-free passage.
One is to close, the other is to open. Is this called "close to reaching an agreement"?
What's worse is that even if the agreement is signed, it may not be enforceable.
Shipping industry insiders have already issued warnings: the existing U.S. sanctions and insurance clauses may make this agreement impossible to implement.
Simply put: even if Iran says "let you go," the insurance company might say "no." If the ship doesn't dare to move, the agreement is just scrap paper.
Between "resuming navigation" and "merchant ships daring to go," there is still an industry's fear.
So what does this mean for your BTC?
Let's start with the short term—if oil prices are unstable, BTC will be unstable.
During the week of August 3rd, BTC dropped from $63,600 to $62,800. During the two days of oil price plunges, BTC barely rose.
Why? Because the market has already mastered it—
It no longer pays for "expectations." It wants to see "realization."
Without the agreement signed, oil prices could rebound at any time. When oil prices rebound, inflation expectations return. Once inflation expectations return, the Fed dares not relax. If the Fed doesn't ease, risk assets have no chance.
This transmission chain is terrifyingly short.
So, what is my configuration approach?
First, don't chase the "agreement expectations" market.
That August 4th wave was driven by news. Before the news even landed, the market retreated. If you chase in, you're the buyer.
Second, focus on two things—signing agreements and the actual passage of merchant ships.
Signing the agreement is only the first step. Whether merchant ships dare to leave, whether insurance dares to insure, is the real "risk release signal." Before that, oil prices can be re-recorded as risk premiums at any time.
Third, if oil prices really stabilize within the $75-80 range, I will be bullish on BTC again.
The logic is simple: oil prices stabilize→ inflation expectations cool→ easing Fed rate hike pressure→ liquidity expectations improve→ risk asset valuations recover.
But this "if" has not yet happened.
In this round, the market was played three times by the "near-agreement is about to be reached."
Once on August 4, once on August 5, and again on August 7.
Every time he says "almost there," but never signs.
Are you still waiting for the script of "oil price plunge, good for BTC"?
The script wasn't wrong, but the director hadn't called 'Action' yet.
$BTC $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the risk of oil prices cooled down? I believe both BTC and ETH have bottomed out and will start to fluctuate upward starting in August
Those who wait for the last drop will eventually miss out
Reason: From an emotional perspective, the extreme panic lowest point in this year's bear market appeared in February, which is a bottom signal
BTC, SOL, and others have all proven that in terms of timing, a typical bear market lasts about a year. Since October 2025, BTC has been falling steadily without any recovery
ETH has been going bearish since August, falling for half a year. The acceleration of timing has shortened the space gap. Retail investors generally believe there will be one last drop in October-November, which will be an excellent bottom-fishing opportunity
According to the 80/20 rule, it's unlikely to follow this script
I think February hit the bottom, and June and July were absolutely at the bottom.
It's similar to the bottom in June 2022, with six months of volatility, and the absolute bottom in November, which means the market is about to start Nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; the real drama is in CPI
This time, the non-farm payrolls are indeed quite "cold."
Employment turned negative and previous values sharply declined, prompting the market's immediate response: expectations for continued rate hikes in September were cut downward, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, and gold surged first
But don't rush to interpret it as "interest rate cuts are coming."
Because the biggest problem with this nonfarm payroll is that employment is cooling down, but inflation has not yet surrendered
The Fed's most awkward situation right now is:
Employment can't be suppressed too harshly, and inflation can't be released
So this nonfarm payroll seems to have put the brakes on rate hikes, but it's not yet to the point of fully shifting to easing
Next, let's look at one thing: CPI
CPI Exceeds Expectations:
The market is trading again with "stubborn inflation," the US dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to rebound, and gold is under pressure
CPI meets expectations:
September is highly likely to continue to be watchful, with the market digesting the nonfarm payroll shock and then fluctuating again
CPI was significantly below expectations:
Employment + inflation are cooling simultaneously, the logic for rate hikes is loosening further, the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to weaken, and gold may actually open up more space.
So nowadays, the biggest taboo is:
Nonfarm payroll upset = gold is blindly bullish.
The real trading logic is:
Nonfarm payrolls cooling → rate hike expectations falling → CPI confirms → re-charting trends
To put it bluntly, the non-farm payroll just passed the ball to the CPI
If CPI also starts to loosen, the market will have reason to continue trading easing expectations; If CPI rises again, this wave of "non-farm payroll bullish" is likely just a short-term impulse
Don't guess the direction now—wait for the data to give you the answer
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes I've been buying ETFs, $BTC why is it still stuck at 65,000?
I just checked this week's ETF data, and it really is quite exhausting.
Net inflows for five consecutive days totaled about $865 million. At this rate, the big band should have surged for a while, but it still hovered around 65,000 yuan.
Simply put, ETFs are buying, and the old chips above are also being sold. New money comes in and grabs the sell-off first; for now, it's not time to push prices up.
Inflows over the past two days have also dropped from $244 million to $102 million, showing clear momentum. Plus, with CPI coming next week, it's normal that funds are reluctant to push in right now.
On the bright side, the money didn't go to waste. Several times it returned to around 64,000, there were always takeovers, at least not spent.
I won't talk about a breakthrough for now. I'll wait until it really ramps up and holds steady at 65,000, then we'll talk about the story that follows.Here’s a tighter, more market-focused version with stronger flow and engagement:
📊 Payrolls Drop, All Eyes on CPI: The Next Catalyst for $BTC & $ETH?
The latest U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report has shifted the macro narrative.
Job growth unexpectedly turned negative, while previous months were revised sharply lower—signaling that the U.S. labor market may be cooling faster than expected.
That matters for crypto.
A weaker labor market can reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated. Following the report, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar weakened, while expectations for future rate cuts increased.
For $BTC and $ETH, that’s a constructive macro signal—but not confirmation of a sustained rally.
Now, the market is turning its attention to the next major catalyst:
🔥 U.S. CPI
If inflation comes in below expectations, expectations for Fed rate cuts could strengthen further. Lower yields and easier financial conditions could encourage capital to rotate back into risk assets such as $BTC and $ETH.
But there’s another side.
⚠️ Hotter-than-expected CPI = higher-for-longer risk.
That could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher again, creating renewed pressure on crypto and other risk assets.
₿ $BTC :
A softer CPI could strengthen institutional confidence and give Bitcoin another opportunity to challenge key resistance levels.
♦️ $ETH:
Ethereum has additional catalysts, including ETF flows, ecosystem growth, Layer 2 expansion, and increasing interest in real-world asset tokenization. If liquidity conditions improve, $ETH could potentially benefit disproportionately.
The payrolls report may have opened the door.
CPI will help determine whether the market walks through it. 👀
Weak payrolls are only the first piece of the puzzle. The next CPI print—and ultimately the Fed’s guidance—could determine whether $BTC and $ETH break out of consolidation or remain range-bound.
Follow for more macro + crypto market analysis.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus
#SpaceXUnlockRebound
#UniswapLaunchpadBet
$BTC $ETH 64,000 is the iron bottom! Whales sweep #BTC wildly, bulls aiming for 70,000!
Nonfarm payroll bombs, ETFs hitting gold for five consecutive days, whales buying up stocks—yet the Bitcoin remains rock solid at 64,000. This isn't weakness, it's the main players holding back their big move!
US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, sharply lowering rate hike expectations and benefiting risk assets. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive days, with another $98.84 million yesterday, while BlackRock IBIT alone held $86.7 million. On-chain boom — whales accumulated 38,000 BTC, with open interest hitting a six-month high. Large funds are sweeping at the bottom, with clear signals.
Personal Viewpoint:
If you get an opportunity between 64,000-63,500, go long, stop loss at 63,000, and target 66,000-67,000. Once volume increases and breaks through 65,300, the upper side will fully open, and 70,000-73,000 will be no dream.
Right now, it's normal volatility after a rally—don't be scared off by grinding pressure. Whales are adding positions, ETFs are attracting funds, and nonfarm payrolls are providing support—hold on and wait for the wind!Oil prices fell 10% for the week, BTC climbed above 64K: The market is pricing in the "best script," but geopolitics never follows the script
Have you been quite happy these past couple of days?
BTC has risen above $64,000 and has risen for several consecutive days.
Oil prices have plummeted—is inflation about to cool down? Shouldn't the Federal Reserve be going easy now?
Stop. Don't rush to pop champagne just yet.
Over the past week, Brent crude oil has fallen from above $100 to around $83, down nearly 10% on the weekly chart.
At the same time, Bitcoin rebounded from below $63,000 and climbed back above $64,000.
This drop and rise seem to perfectly echo—
Oil prices fell → as inflation expectations cooled → Fed rate hike pressure eased, → BTC rose.
The logic is sound. But the question is: how long can this logic last?
Let's first look at why oil prices are falling.
The core is just one thing: the Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen.
U.S. officials said that negotiations between Iran and Oman over the passage of the Strait of Hormuz have made substantial progress, and an agreement is expected to be reached soon.
Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also acknowledged that the negotiations were "professional and progressive," and that the proposed geographic coordinates for the new route had been agreed upon.
Once the agreement is finalized, millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil supply could return to the market.
U.S. Central Command also revealed that since the blockade on Iran was reinstated, 49 merchant ships have been rerouted. With the blockade lifted, a large amount of oil supplies will return to the market.
Oil prices fell because the market was pricing in the "best script"—the reopening of the strait, supply recovery, and cooling inflation.
BTC has reached 64,000, which is also trading the same script.
Geopolitical easing → oil prices fall→ cooling inflation expectations → U.S. Treasury yields falling, → risk assets rebound.
The logical chain couldn't be clearer.
But here's the question—will this "best script" really go on?
I'm throwing you three buckets of cold water.
First basin: Iran says the agreement does not mean the straits will open.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagae made it clear: reaching an agreement does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will resume safe navigation.
He put it bluntly—the closure of the strait was due to military operations by the United States and Israel against Iran, and the U.S. maritime blockade still exists, so the security situation in the strait has not fundamentally improved.
To put it plainly: the agreement is signed, but whether it opens depends on how the U.S. performs.
Iranian media also reported that the agreement is unrelated to the "immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz." The opening of the strait depends on the U.S. side changing previous violations.
The market is pricing in "reopening immediately," while Iran is saying "depends on the situation." The gap between these is worlds apart.
Second Basin: Iran's parliament is considering a bill—to permanently ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Violators are fined up to 20% of the value of the goods.
On one side, U.S. officials said, "An agreement is almost reached," while on the other, the Iranian parliament said, "We need to legislate to ban U.S.-Israel ships from passing through."
Which do you think is true?
Third pot: The details of the agreement have not been finalized yet.
Who controls the shipping lanes? Is there a fee? How much is charged? Has the U.S. lifted its blockade on Iranian ports?
All question marks.
The U.S. wants "free passage and no fees." Iran wants to charge 5% to 7% of the value of the goods.
How big is the gap? One wants to get free, the other wants to get paid. There's a whole negotiation table in between.
What's even harsher?
Before the agreement was signed, three ships from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked this week while passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Iran attacked "hostile targets" in the strait on Thursday.
They were negotiating while fighting.
This is the Middle East.
Bank of America's senior investment chief put it bluntly: "An agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to reach, and investors are in a wait-and-see mode. Currently, shipping volumes remain low, and the path to a lasting agreement remains uncertain. ”
Here's something to say to the heart:
This BTC rebound is essentially a technical recovery driven by geopolitical easing, rather than a full reboot of the bull market.
Spot trading volume remains shrinking, with Coinbase's premium remaining negative for about 80 days—indicating that buying pressure from U.S. institutions in the spot market remains subdued.
BTC is fluctuating within a range near 64,000, failing to form a clear directional trend.
This week, BTC rose by $1,000 from 63,000 to 64,000. But if the protocol fails and oil prices surge back to 100, how many days can this $1,000 hold?
Next, keep an eye on three signals:
First, will the agreement be signed or not? U.S. officials say "very soon," but "soon" on Wall Street means "days," and in the Middle East it means "months."
Second, will the Iranian parliament's bill banning U.S.-Israel ships pass? If it does, all agreements will be meaningless.
Third, will oil prices rebound or continue to fall? Brent settled at $83.55 today, but if the agreement fails, returning to $100 would only take one missile.
The market is pricing in the "best script."
But geopolitics never follows a script.
The script says "peace."
In reality, it is written as "uncertain."
$BTC $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the risk of oil prices cooled down? Yesterday's biggest regret was that Greed failed to take profits; SNDK SanDisk and SKHY Hynix both fell back in unison, making it especially painful to see the gains taken back.
Many people have the same question: With the upset in nonfarms and rising expectations for rate cuts, why did the leading storage stocks actually fall?
It's not that the market is deliberately "turning the tables on positive news"; the key lies in the expected gap in asset pricing + sector fragmentation:
Nonfarm payroll benefits are macro-level, pushing up stocks like the Nasdaq and Optical Communications; However, the storage sector saw huge gains earlier, and the capital struggle is no longer just about the current impressive financial reports, but about the sustainability of subsequent price increases and the growth rate of AI capital expenditure. Even if the financial data is good, as long as it doesn't exceed the current high expectations, funds will take advantage of positive news to concentrate profit-taking and enter an independent correction phase.
This is what everyone often encounters: expectation is priced in advance, and news landing is the window for realization, making it easy to see 'positive news followed by a decline, negative news landing and rebound.'
Back to crypto, fortunately, BTC and ETH held steady in the short term.
Continue to hold BTC long positions near 64,000, waiting for next week's push to 66,000;
At the same time, watch whether $ETH can gain momentum and challenge the 2100 level.
This serves as another reminder: for high-level cyclical stocks, don't over-market when holding floating profits. Plan for take-profit before positive news materializes to avoid taking profits on your take-home gains. #非农意外转负, CPI Becomes Key to Rate Hikes. #存储股财报后续跌, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable? #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window has been moved backward #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook
Trump has taken action against the Federal Reserve again. On August 7, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Scarvino sent a letter to Governor Lisa Cook, saying Trump was "considering" removing her from office, giving her three weeks to respond to "mortgage fraud" allegations, and even mentioning "up to 30 years in prison." Cook's lawyer responded bluntly: "No basis."
This is not a new script, but a replay of an old play.
Last August, Trump tried to get her removed on the same charge, but the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that the procedure was illegal—the president cannot arbitrarily remove a Federal Reserve governor. This time, the White House got smarter and issued a formal notice to "supplement the process." But the accusations themselves remain unchanged; the core issue is still testing a bottom line: Can the president use executive power to replace a disobedient Fed governor?
The timing of this incident is also delicate. Meanwhile, media reported that Trump and Fed Chair Wash had multiple private phone calls. One was pressuring interest rates, the other was considering a replacement. Monetary policy independence is facing its most direct challenge in decades.
Is the market afraid?
In the short term, the reaction was indeed subdued. Although the 30-year Treasury yield once surged to 5.22%, the main drivers were inflation expectations and long-term bond supply, not Cook's letter. For BTC and US stocks, as long as Wash's position remains in office and the interest rate path remains unchanged, a change in a board member's position will not immediately change the liquidity environment.
But the real risk lies in long-term credibility.
The Fed is "independent," and no president has ever successfully removed a Fed governor in history. But Trump is using administrative measures to test the boundaries of this "independence." If you can change a board member today, you can change a chair tomorrow. Once the market starts pricing in "the Fed may be politicized," the term premium on U.S. Treasuries will systematically rise—by then, the valuation logic for BTC, gold, and tech stocks will have to be rewritten.
At present, Cook is very likely to hold onto his position—legal proceedings, Senate resistance, and historical precedents are all on her side. But Trump has already made it clear that he doesn't care how many rounds of legal proceedings he has; what matters to him is the signal itself $BTC $ETH $SOL Pretty interesting to see $BTC spot CVD now outpacing perp CVD.
Spot has pushed beyond its previous high while perpetuals are still trading below theirs. This helps explain why we haven’t seen the same continued cascade of liquidation flushes that followed previous range breakdowns.
It doesn’t necessarily mean the lows are fully protected. If spot demand begins fading, price can still move lower.
But as long as spot buying continues to strengthen, corrections towards the range lows should be absorbed much better than they were during previous breakdowns.
Less leverage driving the move means less leverage available to unwind.$BTC #PayrollsDropCPIFocus $SNDK 宽松红利尽数给到美股，#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 加密市场凭什么分不到好处？
$BTC 非农就业数据冷值落地，$ETH 市场预估九月美联储降息概率上涨至 83%。
美债收益率走低，纳指期货拉升，黄金也吃到这波流动性红利。
全部合规风险资产迎来买盘涌入，唯独比特币冲高之后迅速回落。
早年流动性放宽的时候，比特币属于高弹性资产，涨幅常常领跑大盘。
现在宽松资金优先流入拥有实体产能、营收收益的美股科技股。
加密货币没有实体业务支撑，自然承接不住宏观流动性带来的利好。The Nasdaq keeps hitting new highs—has the market completely diverged from the US stock market?
Currently, the correlation coefficient for the 30-day period is only 0.19, a huge gap compared to last quarter's 0.58.
In the past, whenever the Nasdaq experienced fluctuations, Bitcoin would quickly experience market fluctuations.
Now, while the Nasdaq keeps hitting new highs, BTC is just trading sideways and is unlikely to see any further synergy.
This round of US stock market rally is a structural bull market driven by the AI industry chain.
The crypto market lacks a brand-new narrative, and institutional funds are gradually withdrawing from spot ETFs.
The pricing logic of the two asset sets has long diverged, and the decoupling of stock-to-crypto assets is now an established fact.2022: No political force believed the crypto world was worth saving
2026: The crypto industry is part of the ruling party's financial backers, the president's family's assets, and the legislative agenda (CLARITY).
The crypto world has gone from being a "political abandon" in 2022 to becoming a "political asset" in 2026.
This is the most fundamental political basis for the "declining decline" theory in this cycle
This changed the premise of 'no one cares whether you live or die' in 2022
So this time, political forces are on the side of 'not allowing a deep drop.'🚨 Don’t chase the candle. Follow the capital.
A token gaining 20% in a single day may look powerful, but that percentage alone doesn’t tell you whether the move still has room to run.
Sometimes, a huge green candle simply means the easiest part of the move is already over.
That’s why $SOL and $HYPE are catching my attention—not just because of their recent momentum, but because trading activity around these assets is becoming harder to ignore.
Data from the SIX Swiss Exchange’s May 2026 crypto ETP report showed approximately:
💰 21Shares Hyperliquid HYPE Staking ETP: $16.29M turnover
💰 21Shares Solana Staking ETP: $15.56M turnover
Notably, both products recorded higher turnover than several individual Bitcoin and Ethereum products during that period.
This doesn’t guarantee another rally for $SOL or $HYPE.
What it does suggest is that investor activity in the broader crypto market is expanding beyond the two largest assets.
When evaluating a strong-performing sector, I’d focus on four key questions:
1️⃣ Can the narrative remain relevant over time?
2️⃣ Is genuine spot-market activity increasing?
3️⃣ Is price being supported by real buying, or mainly leverage and open interest?
4️⃣ How does the asset perform when $BTC loses momentum?
The fourth point is especially important.
A genuinely strong asset shouldn’t only outperform during Bitcoin rallies. Its relative strength should also become visible when the broader market experiences weakness.
But remember: strong volume doesn’t eliminate risk.
$SOL and $HYPE can still experience aggressive volatility, and crowded trades can become dangerous when sentiment reverses.
So instead of asking:
“Which coin is pumping the hardest?”
Ask:
“Where is fresh capital continuing to enter?”
That shift in perspective can reveal much more than simply looking at the biggest 24-hour gainers. 👀
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge #CLARITYVotePushedToSep 🇺🇸 U.S. Jobs Data Weakens — Now CPI Could Decide the Next Move for $BTC & $ETH
The latest U.S. payrolls data has shifted the macro conversation. Job growth came in weaker than expected, while earlier figures were revised significantly lower, pointing to a faster cooling in the labor market.
That matters because a softer employment environment could reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive interest rates.
Markets have already reacted, with Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moving lower while expectations for future rate cuts strengthened.
For crypto, this is a positive development — but it doesn't automatically mean a new rally is underway.
The next major test is U.S. CPI.
📉 If inflation comes in below expectations, markets could increase bets on Fed easing. Lower yields and improving liquidity would create a more supportive environment for risk assets, potentially giving $BTC and $ETH another boost.
📈 If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the opposite scenario could unfold. Higher-for-longer rate expectations may push yields and the dollar higher, creating fresh headwinds for crypto.
For $BTC, softer inflation could provide the macro fuel needed for another attempt at major resistance levels.
For $ETH, the backdrop could be even more interesting. ETF demand, continued Ethereum ecosystem growth, and expanding real-world asset tokenization could position ETH to benefit strongly if liquidity conditions improve.
The takeaway:
Weak payrolls have opened the door to a more dovish macro narrative, but CPI could determine whether that door actually leads to the next major crypto move.
$BTC and $ETH may be entering a critical period where inflation data, Fed guidance, and liquidity conditions matter more than ever.
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge #CLARITYVotePushedToSep US stocks are soaring all the way, but why has the $BTC crypto world remained so unmoved?
Last night, the Nasdaq closed up 1.30%, with optical communications and AI computing sectors seeing a rush of funds, and Nvidia rising 2.27% in a single day.
Funds in the storage sector fled, SanDisk fell 3.68%, and exit funds continued to circulate within the US tech sector.
I stared at the market for a long time. Bitcoin was stuck in a narrow range between $63,500 and $64,100 all day, with a 24-hour fluctuation of only 0.27%.
Currently, the US stock market is driven by chip orders, corporate earnings reports, and expectations of interest rate cuts.
The crypto world is only influenced by ETF outflows, overseas regulatory pressures, and on-exchange contract games.
The AI industry dividends firmly lock in the US stock market, so the flow of money won't flow into the crypto track, so naturally, there will be no market rally in the crypto sector $ETH $BTC #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
Damn! The nonfarm payroll data came out blank, yet the market celebrated like it hit the lottery.
July nonfarm payrolls cut 23,000 jobs, while the market expected +80,000. The previous two months were revised down by over 100,000 combined, and the three-month average new jobs dropped to rock bottom.
The unemployment rate slipped from 4.2% to 4.1%, not because more people found jobs, but because over 260,000 people exited the labor force, and participation rate continues to be terrible. This isn’t cooling down; it’s an early sign of the labor market starting to rot: total employment is shrinking, people aren’t even looking for jobs, yet the official unemployment rate pretends nothing’s wrong. Typical early recession characteristic.
Interest rate futures immediately dropped the probability of a September rate hike to just over 40%. The dollar was pulled down, the two-year US Treasury yield fell, Bitcoin jumped from mid-64,000s to around 65,300, then gave back some gains. Classic risk appetite knee-jerk reaction.
KOLs on X also think: initial jobless claims are still low, the private sector hasn’t completely collapsed, and BTC’s rise and fall shows funds aren’t fully convinced.
The Fed under Powell only cares about one thing: inflation stubbornly stuck above 2% for years. Soft employment doesn’t mean they’ll immediately surrender. At the last meeting, three hawks already voted against a rate hike. Can one lousy nonfarm report make them completely pivot?
If the number softens, a pause in September is basically confirmed, and risk assets can keep squeezing higher. If CPI sticks or rises again, hawks will ignore the weak jobs data and push rate hikes hard. The market will reprice overnight, and leveraged longs will get crushed.
Bitcoin is watching two key levels now. If it breaks below 63,000-63,400 effectively, this nonfarm pulse is a trap—reduce positions or stop loss and exit. If it holds above 64,500-66,000 with CPI cooperation, it can still rally.#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound SK Hynix’s latest move sends a much bigger message than a few days of weakness in semiconductor stocks.
The company has committed $38.4B to expand its chip operations in South Korea, a massive capital allocation that signals how management views the medium-term supply-demand landscape.
Short-term price action can be driven by positioning and sentiment. Capacity decisions are different—they’re based on expectations for demand, supply constraints, utilization, and the broader memory cycle over the next several years.
That creates an important divergence:
📉 Market prices → reacting to near-term sentiment
🏭 Capacity expansion → reflecting long-term industry expectations
📊 Inventory & utilization → helping confirm where the cycle is heading
A few red candles don’t necessarily change the underlying cycle.
The bigger question for $MU: Are we looking at the early stages of a new memory-cycle run, or is this simply another false start before the real bottom?
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #Gold4300EasingOrHedge Non-farm payrolls have turned negative, so why hasn't BTC taken off yet? #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 US July non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, while the market originally expected an increase of about 80,000; even more striking, May and June were collectively revised down by 103,000. Logically, with such poor employment, rate hikes should be off the table, right? Not so fast. The unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, and the biggest drag this month came from local education jobs, whic#Gold breaks above $4300, is the capital betting on rate cuts or safe haven?
$XAU Gold has surged wildly, hitting $4339 yesterday, with a weekly gain of over 7%. Many are already discussing whether gold has entered a new super cycle?
I think this gold rally is not just a simple technical breakout, but more like a global capital process of rediscovering safe assets.
First, U.S. employment data has clearly cooled down, and the market is starting to trade on expectations of a Fed pivot. Weaker employment means less pressure for rate hikes, putting pressure on the dollar and real interest rates, and gold’s favorite environment is low interest rates + weak dollar.
Second, global market uncertainty remains very high. Geopolitical risks, energy prices, and fiscal pressures are all causing capital to reallocate into safe-haven assets. What gold buyers are really buying is not just a candlestick, but concerns about future monetary credit and economic cycles.
Third, from a capital perspective, long positions in gold are rising; the market is not retail chasing the rally, but institutional funds repositioning.
However, I believe the current gold rally should not be simply understood as a mindless bull market. After a short-term continuous surge, sentiment is already overheated, and we need to watch for changes in Fed policy and whether inflation data continues to cooperate.
In contrast, Bitcoin has recently underperformed gold.
Both are safe-haven assets, but gold has broken a nearly two-month high, while $BTC has not formed an effective breakout. The capital choice is very clear: when the market panics and risk appetite declines, the first choice of capital remains gold, not crypto assets.
This indicates that BTC has not yet fully gained traditional capital’s safe-haven recognition and is still more of a risk asset.
I think this gold rally may signal the start of a global capital defense mode, and for BTC to regain strength, we need to see real liquidity return and market risk appetite improve again. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Your judgment is spot on—this isn't the knockoff season, it's the stock capital rotating through several narratives.
$ADA rises, $ZEC rises, but $ONDO and $XRP fall, indicating the market ignores fundamentals and only focuses on which short-term capital is flowing into the sector.
By this logic, if you only get one coin at the end of the month, I won't choose $ADA (the rally is hard to sustain), nor $ZEC (though the privacy narrative is strong, liquidity is low, $BTC crash first).
I choose $XAUT (gold token).
Reason:
The core judgment in your original text is that "funds are fleeing to defensive assets"—$XAUT rose 7% this week, not just a concept speculation, but a record high in spot gold and institutional funds moving in.
Two key moments at the end of August: the Jackson Hole annual meeting + the September rate meeting expectations. If the market trades "higher and longer" rates, $BTC is very likely to continue to decline, and $XAUT is one of the few that can withstand it.
Holding XAUT until the end of the month, at worst it will be sideways and won't hit a pitfall. Small-cap coins can double in a week but also drop to zero in one week.
If I had to switch to another off-title, I would choose ZEC—the privacy sector has the toughest narrative, and BTC is relatively resilient during pullbacks. But the cost is clear: BTC breaks 60k, and ZEC falls far more than XAUT.
Final constant: the only position at the end of the month = XAUT.
It's not about betting on gains, but about choosing the least bad option in a safe haven.
#非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes #存储股财报后续跌. Is the AI memory bull market stable? #财报观察员: After the lock-up rebound, what is SpaceX's outlook? Rate cut expectations pushed up to 83% US stocks surged, $BTC surged and quickly retreated
After the surprise nonfarm payroll data, $ETH I immediately noticed that expectations for a rate cut in September rose to 83%.
$SNDK US Treasury yields fell, Nasdaq futures surged, and gold also saw a sharp rise.
All compliance risk assets benefited from easing positive factors, except for crypto assets, which reacted sluggishly.
After a brief surge, Bitcoin quickly pulled back, closing slightly lower that day.
In the past, with liquidity easing, Bitcoin always outperformed the vast majority of risk assets.
From my current observation, the easing dividend is prioritized for U.S. stocks supported by the real industrial chain.
Cryptocurrencies have no physical revenue and cannot absorb the dividends of macro liquidity.
Even if rate cuts officially begin in the future, without exclusive positive factors, the crypto sector will still find it difficult to strengthen.🤗 Extra: Is the AI memory bull market still stable? I think it's uncertain, but what's uncertain is the expectations, not the demand.
After the market closed on August 6, Western Digital and SanDisk both exceeded expectations—SanDisk revenue was 8.97 billion (expected 8.48 billion), EPS 39.25 (expected 34.96), but the next quarter revenue guidance was 10.55 billion, which is a bit lower than Wall Street's 10.82 billion, causing the stock price to plummet.
SanDisk dropped 8% after hours and opened the next day down as much as 13%, Western Digital was even worse, fluctuating between -11% and -19%.
In South Korea: SK Hynix pre-market on Nextrade had a fake plunge of 30% with only 11 shares traded, a pure liquidity ghost story. Regular trading once dropped 10%, closed down 4.97%, and fell another 3.9% on August 7. Samsung also came under pressure. Even Nvidia is rumored to be evaluating reducing Rubin Ultra video memory configurations, citing HBM shortages. Although not finalized, the trend has indeed changed.
What does this mean? Even companies with real orders and real products can't withstand the disappointment of guidance that isn't impressive enough. SanDisk rose 470% this year, WDC up 200%, but the market demands not just good, but better than good.
So what supports those AI+storage, AI+DePIN PPT coins in our crypto circle? Legitimate US stocks are cutting valuations, while our code is just a few lines, zero revenue, barking for Nvidia's favor like a stray dog, yet still calling it an AI revolution?
Previously, crypto money just circulated within the pool, now US stock tokens (Apple/Nvidia/storage stocks) are also sucking liquidity. This storage sector setback tells the market: high expectations are not a talisman; if they can't be fulfilled, they just can't. The underlying AI memory demand (HBM shortage until 2027) hasn't collapsed, but the narrative of AI multiplying everything by a hundred has.
I still say:
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound Over 80% of US stocks have short-term opportunities, and the vast majority of altcoins closed lower that day
Last night, the market saw a slight correction, but the domestic hotspots in the US market kept changing.
SanDisk's single-day turnover was very impressive, with storage, optical modules, and AI software all receiving a wave of speculation.
But the crypto market is far quieter than I expected.
Over 80% of altcoins closed lower that day, with many small-cap coins trading dismal.
A small amount of selling pressure can directly push the market down, and liquidity has long been exhausted.
There is healthy capital rotation in the US stock market; when one sector weakens, funds immediately switch to a new main theme.
There is no fresh off-exchange capital entering the crypto world; on-exchange liquidity is decreasing day by day.
Smart people all gather in the hardcore US stock market with stable returns; no one wants to touch the stagnant knockoff market.ETF funds have been flowing out for 11 consecutive days, and I have noticed that institutions have gradually abandoned the crypto track
I check the flow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds every day, and for eleven consecutive days, there have been net outflows.
The highest single-day outflow reached $126 million, with institutions steadily exiting the market.
In contrast, among leading U.S. tech stocks, institutional holdings continue to rise.
Over 70% of Microsoft's shares are held by institutions, with long-term funds continuously increasing their positions in the AI main sector.
Earlier, many asset managers bought Bitcoin to hedge against the drawdown risk of U.S. growth stocks.
Currently, the AI cycle is highly certain, and institutions can directly invest heavily in US stocks to earn returns.
The crypto world now consists only of ordinary retail investors and short-term contract players flipping through the market.
As long as the current outflow of ETF funds does not improve, cryptocurrencies will find it difficult to keep pace with U.S. stocks $BTC $ETH $BICO "Sign tomorrow"—but "tomorrow" has been said for four days
On August 4, U.S. officials said, "An agreement may be reached tomorrow." ”
On August 5, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said: the agreement is "close to finalization."
On August 6, Trump said: The agreement "cannot yet be said to have been formally reached," but the strait "is somewhat open."
On August 7, U.S. officials added: "An agreement is expected to be reached soon." ”
August 8 — still "expected soon."
Four days have passed. "Tomorrow" still hasn't come.
This "very soon" itself is the biggest risk for the market.
Do you think all parties are talking about the same thing?
Let's take a look at the list of disagreements:
Who will pay the toll fees?
Iran: The service fee is split equally between Iran and Oman
Trump: "If we are going to take it, we will do it too"
Who controls it?
Iran: Exerts control over ships heading to the Gulf, and may intervene if necessary
U.S.: No approval required from the Iranian side
What are the prerequisites for lifting sanctions?
Iran: The U.S. must first lift the maritime blockade on Iran
U.S. side: Whether to lift the contract depends on whether Iran fulfills its commitment
Who will sign?
Iran: The agreement "is limited to Iran and Oman and absolutely does not accept any form of foreign interference."
Trump: "The U.S. side is currently involved in related negotiations"
You tell me this is called "near-achievement"?
Even more interestingly, the U.S. Central Command said on Thursday that since the blockade on Iran was reinstated, 49 merchant ships have been rerouted.
Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company stated that three of its ships were attacked this week while passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Talking while fighting.
The Iranian parliament is still declaring: "No concessions have been made in the negotiations."
Translated into plain language: I didn't give up anything, so what right do you have to think the agreement is almost done?
The market has already given its answer.
WTI closed lower this week, hovering in the $76-78 range. Brent closed above $83, but this week marks the third consecutive week of decline.
Speculative net long positions are both down—smart money is retreating.
What about BTC?
During the week ending August 8, despite continued inflows of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and easing geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin remained oscillating between $63,000 and $65,000, failing to establish a clear direction.
The Coinbase premium, an indicator measuring U.S. institutional demand, has been negative for about 80 days.
The market is using sideways movement to express one thing: I don't believe it.
To put it bluntly:
The "soon" of geopolitics in the world of trade equals "high uncertainty."
Every news of a "near-agreement agreement" pushes BTC higher, and every "detail disagreement exposed" can trigger a pullback.
And every bullish candle you see now could be a news-driven "buy expectation."
The moment the agreement is implemented—if it really does—it might actually be "selling facts."
So the question now is simple:
Do you think this agreement can be signed this week?
If your answer is "yes"—then oil prices and BTC may not be fully priced yet.
If your answer is "no"—then this wave of decline isn't over yet, and oil prices could reclaim the risk premium at any time.
And BTC will ride another roller coaster.
$BTC $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the risk of oil prices cooled down? The 30-day stock-to-coin correlation coefficient is as low as 0.19, indicating that the two asset classes have basically lost their correlation
Overnight, the Nasdaq closed up 1.30%, with the AI computing power sector seeing a surge of funds, and Nvidia closing up 2.27%.
Funds in the storage sector fled, with SanDisk falling 3.68% in a single day, and exit funds still flowed only within the US tech sector.
Bitcoin was trapped in the $63,500-$64,100 range throughout the day, with a 24-hour fluctuation of only 0.27%.
In the past, Nasdaq movements could directly drive sentiment in the crypto world, but now the pricing logic is completely divided.
US stock market trends are tied to chip orders, corporate earnings reports, and interest rate cut expectations, while the crypto market is only affected by ETF outflows and regulatory news.
The capital closed loop is within the AI industry chain and does not spill over into the crypto community; decoupling has become the norm.#黄金升破4300美元, are the funds at risk of interest rate cuts or safe havens?
Gold is rising so fiercely, so why hasn't Bitcoin followed suit?
When ADP came out, Bitcoin could still climb higher. Now that gold prices are still surging and Bitcoin is still fluctuating, it's clear that this wave of gains has little to do with Bitcoin
The reason isn't complicated: gold is driven by rate cut expectations + safe-haven demand, with a short logical chain—once rates are loosened, it rebounds immediately. But Bitcoin is still digesting its own internal resources, expectations for the CLARITY Act are fading, stablecoin liquidity is shrinking, and mining companies are still selling off. When macro positive news arrives, you have to get past these hurdles first.
To put it bluntly, each went their own way.
Gold is pricing liquidity shifts, while Bitcoin is waiting for its own catalyst. But liquidity will eventually be transmitted; as long as the breakout in gold prices continues, funds will eventually overflow. Bitcoin will benefit, but the pace will be slower.
My judgment is clear—gold prices are a good thing, but whether Bitcoin follows depends on when your narrative will catch up. Either today or tomorrow.
So don't rush to make judgments; be patient and do well in the present.
$BTC $BICO $SNDK The US lost 23,000 jobs, but $BTC only saw a lonely increase
Last night's US nonfarm payroll was a bit disappointing.
The market had originally expected about 80,000 new jobs, but in reality, it decreased by 23,000; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%.
Following the familiar script in the crypto world:
Employment is worsening→ the probability of rate hikes is falling, the → dollar weakens, → risk assets take off.
As a result, gold rose about 3% at one point and silver nearly 6%, but $BTC only touched $65,312 before returning to around 64,900 to linger.
This is awkward.
Bad news has indeed cooled market expectations for further Fed rate hikes, but bad news is too bad and also means the economy may indeed be slowing down.
So now, $BTC is caught between two stories:
Long positions "liquidity is coming back";
Short trades mean the economy is in trouble.
The most dangerous times in the market aren't because there are no positive news, but because the good news is already on the table, yet prices are too lazy to move.
Right now, I'm only looking at two positions:
65,312 broke through and held firm, so this nonfarm payroll positive news was truly caught by the market;
If 64 and 124 fall below 124, the bulls who chased the news last night may get slapped again.
Do you think $BTC is just accumulating momentum for a breakout, or is it unable to even support weak non-farm payrolls?Title: The 30-Day Stock-Coin Correlation Coefficient Drops to 0.19, In-Depth Analysis of the True Nature of the Complete Decoupling Between US Stocks and Crypto Circles
Many traders wonder why the Nasdaq is now fluctuating and rising and volatile, while Bitcoin has long been stuck in a range, so why are these two risk assets no longer rising and falling together?
Let me start with solid data for analysis: currently, the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient for the Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 is only 0.19, already entering a very low correlation range. In Q4 last year, the correlation coefficient was as high as 0.58, with linkage plummeting.
In the early hours of August 8 Beijing time, the US stock market closed with the Nasdaq soaring 1.30% in a single day. AI optical communications and computing chips saw a capital surge in speculation. Although storage sectors SanDisk and SK Hynix faced sell-offs, exit funds still rotated only within the tech sector of the US market.
In contrast, in the crypto market, Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly between $63,500 and $64,100 throughout the day, with a 24-hour range of just 0.27%. Ethereum and altcoins showed no sign of supporting the bullish sentiment in US stocks.
The first core reason is that this US stock bull market is a structural trend driven by the AI industry cycle, with capital following a fixed closed loop.
Nvidia's server orders, Q3 flash chip capacity, and Microsoft cloud business revenue are all tangible real industry dividends. After incremental capital enters, it will only focus on semiconductors and artificial intelligence, and after taking profits, it will only switch to other tech sectors and will not spill over into the crypto market.🔥 10 Undervalued Altcoins Worth Watching
The next crypto leaders may already be building quietly while the market is focused elsewhere.
Here are 10 projects with strong narratives, active ecosystems, and long-term potential 👇
1️⃣ $ETH — Ethereum
Core infrastructure for DeFi, staking, L2s, and institutional adoption.
2️⃣ $LINK — Chainlink
A key oracle network powering data feeds, tokenized assets, and cross-chain applications.
3️⃣ $ARB — Arbitrum
One of Ethereum’s leading L2 ecosystems, backed by strong developer activity and scaling demand.
4️⃣ $SUI — Sui
High-performance blockchain with a rapidly expanding DeFi, gaming, and application ecosystem.
5️⃣ $ONDO — Ondo Finance
A major name in the growing RWA/tokenization narrative connecting traditional finance with crypto.
6️⃣ $TAO — Bittensor
A unique AI + blockchain play attracting attention as decentralized AI infrastructure grows.
7️⃣ $INJ — Injective
Focused on decentralized trading and financial infrastructure with an expanding ecosystem.
8️⃣ $RENDER — Render
Decentralized GPU infrastructure positioned around AI, gaming, and digital content demand.
9️⃣ $AVAX — Avalanche
Scalable smart-contract infrastructure with continued ecosystem and institutional development.
🔟 $NEAR — NEAR Protocol
Developer-friendly infrastructure with a strong focus on scalability, usability, and blockchain adoption.
💡 The key:
Don’t just chase coins after they pump. Watch the projects building during quieter market phases.
Strong fundamentals + growing adoption + patience can create opportunities before the crowd arrives.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always DYOR, manage risk, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Which one do you think is the most undervalued right now? 👇
#SpaceXUnlockRebound Macro data for August 8!
In July, US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. More notably, May and June were revised down by 103,000 people in total, with the labor force participation rate halting at 61.4%, down 0.7 percentage points so far this year; hourly earnings rose 3.2% year-on-year, and wage pressure continues to ease. Looking at these data sets together, the US job market is no longer just slowing down but showing clear signs of cooling.
The market's initial reaction was not pessimistic. U.S. stocks rose while Treasury yields fell, as weaker employment reduced the need for the Fed to continue tightening. But this nonfarm payroll report cannot be directly interpreted as positive news: if inflation data continues to decline, the market will trade in rate cuts and liquidity easing; if inflation remains sticky and employment worsens further, the logic shifts from "rate cut expectations" to "recession." Therefore, the upcoming U.S. inflation data will be the key to determining whether this rebound in risk assets can continue.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S., Iran, and Oman are still seeking ways to restore normal navigation. The U.S. has said it will study Oman's proposals, but no final agreement has been reached so far, and shipping volumes have not returned to normal levels. This is a developmental easing of the situation and cannot be prematurely written as risks being resolved. If negotiations make substantial progress, oil prices and inflation expectations will continue to cool; If the deal breaks again, the rebound in energy prices will once again squeeze the Fed's policy space.Michael Saylor said something that I found especially apt:
"Bitcoin doesn't need the CLARITY Act. It's the United States that needs it. ”
Whether Bitcoin has this bill or not, it's running, mining, and holding.
But American institutions can't get in. American banks don't dare touch it. American funds are watching and waiting.
A vacuum does not stop industry development; it only pushes development elsewhere.
FTX proves that the industry needs rules.
But Washington spent three years and still hasn't even clarified the question of "who sets the rules."
It has been over a year since the House passed the bill. It has been almost three months since the Senate Banking Committee passed it.
616 pages of bill text, with 300 pages of amendments. It took 11 months of discussion.
And then?
Adjournment. We'll talk about it in September.
What if it still doesn't get through in September?
The political landscape could change completely after the midterm elections. Lummis warned that if it is delayed until after the election, legislation could stall for up to four years.
In the fourth year.
Three years is long enough.Let's talk about the non-farm payroll data. I was stunned after reading it and couldn't say a word for a while.
-23,000, the expectation was +80,000, a difference of 100,000. The data for May and June was also revised down by a total of 103,000. The previous two months were revised down by 100,000, and this month it directly turned negative. Honestly, the cooling speed of the job market is quite fierce. (The power of capital is still too strong)
But what's even more contradictory is the unemployment rate, which dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Employment is contracting, but the unemployment rate is falling. These two data points together indicate mixed signals. Wage growth also slowed, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 50% to about 44%. The market thinks the Fed can't raise rates anymore.
Then the market reaction was very interesting—not a broad rally, but a split.
$XAU broke through $4370, futures closed at $4399.7, standing above the $4400 mark.
Weak employment → rate hike cooling → weak dollar → gold rises, this chain makes perfect sense.
I've been watching $SPCX these past two days.
It rose 6% on the unlock day, then surged 15.83% after the non-farm data, closing at $133.11. It climbed from around $105 to $133, a cumulative increase of about 23% over two days. The unlock bearishness has been digested, shorts are covering, and rate cut expectations are pushing it up. The rise is too strong, and I'm the happiest 😂
SanDisk $SNDK plunged from 1326 to around 1200 last night, closing down 3.68%.
Weak non-farm data → lower rate hike expectations → high valuation growth stocks should benefit, but SanDisk was hit instead.
Previously, despite earnings #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound 🚨 Don’t chase the largest green candle. Follow the capital.
A token gaining 20% in a day isn’t necessarily the strongest opportunity. In many cases, that move simply means the easy part of the rally has already happened.
That’s why $SOL and $HYPE are worth watching right now.
The interesting part isn’t just their price performance. There are signs of meaningful trading activity and demand around both assets.
Data from the SIX Swiss Exchange’s May 2026 crypto ETP report showed approximately:
💰 21Shares Hyperliquid HYPE Staking ETP: $16.29M turnover
💰 21Shares Solana Staking ETP: $15.56M turnover
Both reportedly recorded more turnover than several individual BTC and ETH products during the same period.
That doesn’t guarantee another rally for $SOL or $HYPE.
But it does highlight an important shift: investors in traditional markets are increasingly trading crypto assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
When evaluating a hot sector, I focus on four questions:
1️⃣ Can the narrative remain relevant?
2️⃣ Is genuine spot volume expanding?
3️⃣ Is price being driven by real buying or primarily leverage?
4️⃣ How resilient is the asset when $BTC starts pulling back?
The fourth point matters most.
Real strength isn’t only about outperforming during a Bitcoin rally. Strong assets should also demonstrate relative resilience when the broader market turns weaker.
Of course, high volume doesn’t eliminate risk. $SOL and $HYPE remain volatile, and crowded trades can unwind aggressively.
So instead of asking:
“What’s pumping the hardest?”
Ask:
$ETH
“Where is capital continuing to flow?”
That can reveal much more than simply looking at the daily gainers list. 👀
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge #CLARITYVotePushedToSep $BTC the current funding rate remains negative, bearish sentiment is steadily accumulating. The 4-hour chart has been challenging the aboveward resistance for four consecutive days without forming a valid breakout or forming a confirmatory bullish reversal structure. Selling pressure has piled upward, and bulls have yet to break through key resistance. The continuity of this rebound is questionable, and bears need to be patient.
$DOT these long-established public chain counterfeit stocks, marginal changes at the bottom are worth noting. After a long period of quiet, capital has begun to flow back slightly, and bottom support is slowly emerging. For long-term deeply stuck spot positions, a window for slow recovery and gradual unwinding is finally ushering.
$ETH is currently the most tormenting mainstream stock. The market often surges rapidly, creating expectations of a break to 2000, but the resistance remains above, quickly pulling back after a rally, repeatedly pushing the market to pull both bulls and bears. On one side, ETF institutional funds continue to support the bottom; on the other, the market is deeply divided. Whether you go long or short, holding positions is tough.
Comparing the pace of historical non-farm business plots reveals a clear difference:
A common path in past nonfarm rally rallies: a slight upward rise in the early stage→ a round of pullbacks to clear out floating stocks→ then choose the main direction to move upward.
In this round, the market traded interest rate cut expectations early, with BTC showing eight consecutive bullish candles with almost no deep pullbacks, a typical case of expectation being overdrawn and breaking previous patterns.
Capital choices also indirectly confirm liquidity shortcomings: large amounts of capital continue to flow into US stocks, liquidity shrinks in the crypto market, turning it into a volatile market where stock is cut off by stock. Large-scale rallies are hard to initiate, with repeated stop-loss sweeps and principal erosion, significantly increasing trading difficulty.
The next core watershed will come after the non-farm payroll is implemented:
Will positive news be realized and profit-taking positions concentrated and pull back? Or will new incremental funds take over, continuing to push risk assets higher? #非农意外转负, CPI becomes the key #CLARITY表决推迟至9月 for rate hikes, and the regulatory window moves backward Circle has moved native USDC onto the OKX X Layer — but $BTC still stuck at 65,000 and playing dead, which has nothing to do with it.
Stablecoin penetration is a long-term replenishment, but short-term BTC failed to catch up: spot volume crashed -98.8%, stuck at 65,000 in the eighth hour.
Real money is flocking into on-chain US stocks. XSPCX (PC industry) rose +16.21% in one day, XSOXL (3x semiconductor) +3.27%; XSNDK, which was short on NASDAQ, actually lost -4.66%.
Money is betting on AI hardware, not BTC. OI 107,000 Fear 30 — This is a sideways movement lacking a main theme, not charging momentum.
My framework: Watching the divergence of US stocks on-chain is more accurate than watching the market surface. Their rise indicates a warming risk appetite, but bypassing BTC, this round of money doesn't aim to enter the market.
My BICO long position is floating at +9.5%, pretending to be dead before the demon coin crashes, profiting from luck.
This week, do you bet BTC will close at 65,000 or 63,000? Bet your bet in the comments and see how many people are braver than me.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $BICO #OKX星球 #链上美股 #稳定币Let's talk about the non-farm payroll data. I was stunned after reading it and couldn't say a word for a while.
-23,000, the expectation was +80,000, a difference of 100,000. The data for May and June was also revised down by a total of 103,000. The previous two months were revised down by 100,000, and this month it directly turned negative. Honestly, the cooling speed of the job market is quite fierce. (The power of capital is still too strong)
But what's even more contradictory is the unemployment rate, which dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Employment is contracting, but the unemployment rate is falling. These two data points together indicate mixed signals. Wage growth also slowed, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 50% to about 44%. The market thinks the Fed can't raise rates anymore.
Then the market reaction was very interesting—not a broad rally, but a split.
$XAU broke through $4370, futures closed at $4399.7, standing above the $4400 mark.
Weak employment → rate hike cooling → weak dollar → gold rises, this chain makes perfect sense.
I've been watching $SPCX these past two days.
It rose 6% on the unlock day, then surged 15.83% after the non-farm data, closing at $133.11. It climbed from around $105 to $133, a cumulative increase of about 23% over two days. The unlock bearishness has been digested, shorts are covering, and rate cut expectations are pushing it up. The rise is too strong, and I'm the happiest 😂
SanDisk $SNDK plunged from 1326 to around 1200 last night, closing down 3.68%.
Weak non-farm data → lower rate hike expectations → high valuation growth stocks should benefit, but SanDisk was hit instead.
Previously, despite earnings #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound 🚨 SMALL-CAPS ARE FLASHING A SIGNAL CRYPTO TRADERS SHOULD WATCH
The Russell 2000 has just recorded its highest weekly close on record, while U.S. equities added roughly $2.8 trillion in market value.
Why does that matter for crypto?
$BTC
Small-cap outperformance has historically appeared alongside periods when investors become more willing to take on risk. During major crypto expansions such as 2017 and 2021, stronger risk appetite coincided with significant moves across ETH and the altcoin market.
If this rotation toward higher-beta assets continues, the next question is whether that appetite eventually spills into crypto:
Traditional equities → Bitcoin → Ethereum → Altcoins
It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a flow worth monitoring.
$ETH
Capital is rotating somewhere.
The question now is whether crypto becomes the next destination. 👀
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge 🚨 $BTC & $ETH LOSE A NEAR-TERM CLARITY ACT CATALYST
The market just pushed one potential regulatory catalyst further down the road.
The CLARITY Act’s next procedural vote is now expected no earlier than September 15, while implied odds of the legislation being fully enacted by year-end have dropped from roughly 28% to 14%.
Interestingly, the immediate market reaction has been limited:
$BTC → barely moved
$ETH → largely flat
That makes sense when looking at the timeline.
The year-end probability reflects the possibility of both chambers passing the legislation and the President signing it. Even if enacted, the draft generally provides for implementation to begin around 360 days after enactment, with certain provisions potentially taking longer.
In other words, a September vote doesn’t automatically translate into an immediate fundamental boost for Bitcoin or Ethereum.
For now, the market may need to rely on other catalysts — liquidity, ETF flows, macro policy, and actual demand — rather than expecting near-term momentum from CLARITY.
Rehan_X
Facts, Trends & Insights
#SpaceXUnlockRebound #CLARITYVotePushedToSep