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$SNOW No operation, no analysis, just relying on luck, this record feels embarrassing to even say.😇
Actually, the order was placed in advance. When SNOW was just getting slammed in the early session, the selling pressure above was tight, bulls tried for a long time but couldn't break 378.04. I saw the volume couldn't keep up, so I directly placed a short order, then went to have breakfast peacefully.
When I came back, the current price had dropped directly to 326.08, and the account showed a floating profit of +343.68%. Only then did I understand, those who watch the market but move little often end up the happiest.
Closed 70% of the position first, safely pocketed; moved the stop loss for the remaining 30% near the cost price, if it falls further let it snowball on its own, at worst just less profit.🧊
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. Being out of position is not a sin, opening random positions is the mistake. If you don't open, at least you won't be wrong.
Don't chase the dump at this position, if you really want to short again, wait for the next rebound to end, I'll give a heads-up in advance.
$LAB $BNB 30 days +$42,749: These 3 things are more important than a high win rate
In the past 30 days, the account profit was +$42,749.94 with a win rate of 88.88%.
But what impressed me most during this period was not the win rate, but these three things:
1. When making profits, you have to hold on.
BTC long position entry average price was 63,725, exit average price was 76,500, final profit +$30,558.
This trade made me realize: after getting the direction right, being able to hold on is often harder than finding the entry point.
2. When wrong, recognize it quickly.
There was a ZEC short position that only lost -$16.52.
Trading can’t be right every time; what really matters is not letting small losses turn into big ones.
3. Don’t trade just for the sake of trading.
Another ZEC short position went from 1,235.29 to 1,100.52, profit +$6,560.
If the opportunity isn’t good enough, I’d rather wait; only act when truly confident.
In these 30 days, I increasingly feel:
Trading is not about winning every trade, but minimizing losses when wrong and letting profits run when right.
There were also drawdowns in the profit curve, but ultimately it went from about -$1,058 at the start of the phase to +$42,749.
Next, I plan to further analyze:
How BTC +$30,558 was held, and why I chose to short ZEC for +$6,560.
Which would you prefer to see first, BTC or ZEC? 凌晨刷到那条链上记录时，我手里的咖啡突然不香了。 一个胜率100%的空头，为什么这次可能翻车？ 先交代事实。地址0xfe5…5d850，关联知名交易员XXAntiWar，今天早上5点又对ZEC开了3倍杠杆空单，名义价值450万美元，入场价1120.8美元。此前他三次做空ZEC全部盈利，累计约72.7万美元，其中在1273和1181两个价位的那笔就赚了69.3万。但这次不一样，新仓位目前浮亏约13万。 我盯的不是这13万，而是他为什么敢在连胜之后加杠杆。 衍生品结构里有个很微妙的信号：连续盈利的空头往往会进入"确认偏误"状态，把过去的胜率当成未来的胜率。3倍杠杆不算高，但450万的名义规模说明他在赌一个方向性回调，而不是短线波段。问题在于，ZEC这类隐私币的现货深度本来就薄，一旦多头在关键价位发起逼空，3倍杠杆的强平线会变成加速器，而不是保护垫。 看多路径其实很清晰。ZEC近期有隐私叙事回暖和减半预期的双重支撑，现货买盘如果持续吃单，空头回补会形成正反馈，1120这个位置一旦被有效突破，上方止损盘会被动触发。而且链上透明意味着他的仓位是公开的，猎手们知道该往哪里打。 但风险也不能装看不见Still holding this SpaceX position, long at 147.07, at the time of the screenshot 149.70, single contract floating return rate +134.11%, take profit at 155 unchanged. The target hasn't been reached yet, but some floating profit has already been given back. 🚀
I continue to lean bullish, placing more emphasis on the business Starlink has already built. In the Q2 report, revenue from enterprise and government customers in the connectivity business grew 108% year-over-year, and the entire connectivity business operating profit increased by 79%. For me, customers are not just individual users, and growth is not just about subscriber numbers; this is more convincing than simply discussing how far the rocket can fly.
There are also new growth expectations on the computing power side. The company's CFO disclosed on September 10 that a new hosting agreement was signed, starting December 1, corresponding to about $1.11 billion in contract value per month. What I value is that beyond existing business, new customers are willing to pay; but the contract still needs to be fulfilled, this amount cannot be directly counted as profit, nor can it be taken as a guarantee that the stock price will definitely rise.
Moreover, the company as a whole was still operating at a loss in Q2. Having profitable business does not mean the entire company can easily make money yet. So this information supports my bullish observation, but is not enough for me to ignore the current pullback. #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 $XRP — ~$1.36 The first test is $1.40–$1.42. Reclaiming and holding that area would improve short-term momentum, while $1.46–$1.47 remains the bigger resistance zone. With the CLARITY Act Senate milestone on September 15 approaching, XRP could see a sharp volatility expansion. But the headline alone isn't enough — I want to see volume and follow-through. 🟢 Above $1.47 → momentum strengthens 🔴 Below $1.34–$1.35 → structure weakens $HYPE — ~$85–$86 HYPE is in a completely different setup. After The core trigger for this trade is the high-level volume contraction and stagnation. $ZEC repeatedly surged to 1140.15 but trading volume gradually shrank, showing clear weakness in the bulls' follow-through.
Opened a 50x short position, currently at 1110.82, with an unrealized profit of 128.62%, and the underlying price has dropped about 2.57%. The logic for opening a short is clear due to volume contraction without price increase combined with previous high resistance. The 50x leverage reverse tolerance is only about 2%, currently approaching the lower support zone, and the short profit-taking positions may be covered at any time.
The major portion was cashed out in batches, with the tail position pushing the loss cost line. Enter short on volume contraction and stagnation, reduce positions in the support zone, and avoid greed at the high level in the final stage. $BTC $ETH $HUSDT has risen all day, so I reversed and opened a small short to bet on a pullback 👊
Today, HUSDT surged from 0.078 to 0.089, up nearly 7 points, moving straight up without giving any breathing room. Watching the candlestick hit the upper Bollinger Band all the way, I reversed and opened a small short position, betting it will pull back after the spike.
But honestly, with the MACD golden cross pointing up and RSI6 hitting 71, the bullish momentum is still there, so this short is a bit against the trend. Around 0.09 is the previous high resistance; if it really breaks through, this small short will be tough. It’s up nearly 20% in 7 days, but still negative over 30 days, indicating this is just an oversold rebound, and whether it can sustain is uncertain.
Purely a small position trial and error; if it breaks the previous high, I’ll accept it.
Brothers, how long do you think this rebound can last? Does this short have a chance? Let’s chat in the comments.🙈#创作者激励 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #OKX星球话题来啦 #PPI, CPI released, multiple institutions raise September rate hike expectations #BTC spot ETF outflows nearly $450 million in three days
BTC smashed through 78000 again! Big holders waking up are doubling down on ETH and ZEC, are you following this move?
Brothers, today's market is giving me goosebumps
$BTC went straight to 78150, RSI6 dropped to 33.99, just a hair away from the oversold zone, Bollinger lower band at 77788 is right underfoot supporting it. $ETH isn't much better, at 2462, RSI6 also at 33.88, oversold yes, but all moving averages are pressing down from above, want a rebound? First ask if those lines agree. $ZEC is a bit interesting, sliding from 1299 down to 1232, down nearly 3%, but RSI6 still hanging at 57, much stronger than BTC and ETH. Yesterday it was just one point shy of hitting 1300, probably scared a lot of shorts out cold sweat.
There's a detail on the chart worth pondering: an address that had been dormant for half a year suddenly woke up and swallowed 13,290 ETH and 6,601 ZEC in one gulp. At current prices, ETH is about $32 million, ZEC about $8 million.
My personal view: For BTC, watch 77700 closely in the short term, breaking it likely slides to 77000; ETH is oversold but no sign of stabilization yet, no rush to buy; ZEC's earlier gains are clear, a pullback is not surprising, but big holders daring to put real money in at this level shows they are looking at a longer-term game.talking about "ecosystem updates" and "holder rewards," which sounds like handing out gym memberships to patients in the ICU—it's a desperate plea for holders to stay. Look at the 4-hour chart: MA5, MA10, and MA20 have twisted into a deadlock around 0.0037, locking the candlesticks tightly inside. The J value barely crawled back to 55, RSI is playing dead between 44 and 49, and the volume is visibly shrinking. There's no violent shakeout, just a dull knife cutting flesh; the main players are too$BTC has spent most of this week trapped between $76,000 and $78,000, with neither bulls nor bears managing to gain real control. Even the daily price swings have remained unusually small, showing just how compressed the market has become. Some traders believe whales are quietly distributing their holdings, but the broader data suggests something different: large players appear to be sitting on the sidelines rather than aggressively pushing the market in either direction. The options market is o55.55 is a special number that naturally attracts market attention. After $DASH touched it, the bulls' support exhausted. Short position at 50x leverage, currently at 53.99, floating profit 140.41%, underlying dropped about 2.81%.
Numeric thresholds often come with programmed selling pressure, combined with high-level stagnation confirming resistance. The 50x leverage tolerance is extremely thin, currently approaching short-term support.
Major holders are taking profits in batches, with the tail position pushing the loss cost line. The special price level plus price action is the basis for this entry, reducing positions in the support zone without fighting to the end.
$BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 Big trouble, Bitcoin directly dropped to 76,867, hitting a 24-hour low of 76,750. Ethereum fell to 2,496, and it looks like 2,500 won't hold. SOL is the worst, hovering around the critical 100 mark, life or death. The key supports mentioned a couple of days ago are all being tested one by one today. The MACD green bars are still expanding, with bears fully dominating the short term.
There's also some disruptive news. Bitcoin experienced a single-block reorganization, with Antpool's block included in the main chain. Technically, this isn't a fatal flaw, but the market sentiment is already jittery, so any slight disturbance scares retail investors into panic selling. Standard Chartered Bank predicts SKY will rise to 0.325 by 2028, which is a long-term promise that doesn't help the current market at all.
But brothers, BTC is expected to find support between 76,000 and 76,500, ETH between 2,480 and 2,500, and SOL between 100 and 100.8. All the positions are now in place.
Honestly, watching these green bars crash down, it's hard not to feel uneasy. But trading is like this: plan your trade, trade your plan. The support levels have arrived, and I won't chicken out. I'm preparing to lightly buy Bitcoin around 76,500, place orders for Ethereum near 2,490, and enter SOL around 100.2. Stop losses must be strict: Bitcoin at 75,500, Ethereum at 2,440, SOL at 98.5. If these break, admit the mistake immediately and never hold the position.
This is the bulls' last line of defense. If it holds, it will be a double bottom rebound; if not, a straight drop to 71,000.Institutional buying is retreating
ETF fund flows that supported the rise in August have clearly reversed:
· Net outflow for 4 consecutive trading days, -$282.7 million on September 10 alone
· Approximately -$416 million in total over the last three reported trading days
· Bitcoin spot demand is negative 145,000 BTC, Coinbase premium index turns negative
The institutional buying that helped support the August rally may be rapidly withdrawing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 At the weekly level, a long bearish candle engulfed the previous bullish candle at 6.376, completely reversing the bulls' rebound. $UNI opened a 50x short position, currently at 6.174, with an unrealized profit of 158.40%, while the underlying asset dropped about 3.17%.
The large cycle engulfing pattern combined with the integer-level selling pressure makes entering the position logical. The 50x leverage leaves very little room for error; currently approaching short-term support, the short profit-taking may trigger a cover.
In terms of operation, the main position is partially realized in batches, and the remaining position is pushed to the cost line. The large cycle reversal combined with key resistance levels is the core logic of this trade, avoiding fighting at the top. $BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 I DON’T THINK THE MARKET GOES STRAIGHT INTO THE FLUSH.
We could get one more move higher first:
Push higher → confidence builds → FOMO returns → everyone gets comfortable → then the flush.
If that scenario plays out, these are the key floors I’ll be watching:
🟠 $BTC → $74K
🟣 $ZEC → $750
🔵 $ETH → $2,350
🟢 $SOL → $95
⚫ $HYPE → $73
This is a scenario, not a prediction.
I’m watching the structure, liquidity, and key levels while staying ready for either direction.
Patience over FOMO.The answer isn't simply “which one has fallen the most?” You need to look at liquidity, narrative, adoption, capital rotation and risk. $XRP — ~$1.36 The relatively defensive choice of the three. XRP remains one of the most established cross-border payment assets, and Ripple continues expanding its banking footprint in Korea. Jeonbuk Bank recently became the first Korean regional bank to deploy Ripple Payments for near-real-time cross-border remittances. But don't automatically translate “Ripple$BTC｜Sideways over the weekend, the real direction hasn't emerged yet
Let's review yesterday's view.
Yesterday I mentioned that the most important thing for BTC technically right now is several support levels.
Over the weekend, BTC basically didn't move much, hovering around 77181, and the current price is about 77126.
With this narrow range oscillation, I’m not in a hurry to guess the direction.
Currently, the 45-minute level is still building a bottom below the zero line; a short-term rebound is possible, but we still need to see if the support holds.
Next, I’m mainly watching three levels:
76828
This is the first short-term defense line.
If it holds → there’s a chance for an upward rebound.
If it breaks → look at 76000 first.
If 76000 also fails to hold → the next step is to watch the daily core support at 72860.
Also, the box midline at 77168 is very critical.
The price is currently fluctuating around here; if it can re-establish and sustain above this level, the short-term strong structure will be preserved.
So my current thinking is simple:
Don’t guess direction in the middle of the box.
Wait for it to truly choose.
Tonight and after the US stock market opens tomorrow, I will focus on whether there is capital support.
If volume increases upward, follow it.
If supports are continuously lost, then watch the support levels below.
Sideways markets easily shake people back and forth; there’s no need to participate in every fluctuation.
Waiting for direction is more important than guessing direction. #OKX星球话题来啦 $BTC
Without getting too caught up in the details of the move, what stood out for me once again was price rejecting from the 50W MA - which I've sold... once again...
It's a bull market if price can convincingly reclaim and find acceptance above it... ideally supported by strong passive flows, rather than simply shorts unwinding before price rolls over again - as per today..
Still a range until it isn’t...
Current m-vwap line in the sand for me...
Until then...#BTCSpotETF450MOutflow $ETH Q3 2026: From Two Consecutive Quarters of Decline to the Second Strongest in History
$ETH really came back strong this Q3.
Looking at historical quarterly returns, ETH has risen 60.62% so far this Q3, surpassing the 59.5% in Q3 2020, making it the second strongest Q3 on record, only behind 66.55% in 2025.
Even more remarkable is the reversal magnitude. In Q1 and Q2 this year, ETH fell 29.26% and 25.28% respectively, suffering two consecutive quarters of losses, but in Q3 it made a significant comeback.
Now it is less than 6 percentage points away from the strongest Q3 in history, but since the quarter is not over yet, the final ranking depends on the subsequent trend. As long as ETF funds, spot market support, and risk appetite continue, ETH still has a chance to challenge last year's 66.55% record.
However, I don't expect the market to pull back immediately. A more likely path is an initial rally that drives:
Rebound → Confidence Boost → FOMO Returns → Traders Become Confident → Then a Pullback.
In other words, the uptrend may not be over yet; sentiment is first ignited, those who missed out start to feel anxious, FOMO re-enters, traders grow more confident—and pullbacks often occur when confidence is at its peak.
After two tough quarters, Q3 surged to the second strongest in history.
If it rises less than 6 percentage points more, ETH will reach the strongest Q3 ever.
$BTC #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 Those who were chasing the ups and downs on BTC ETH just yesterday are probably starting to question their life choices today. This market simply doesn't give you a moment to breathe: PPI and CPI have consecutively exceeded expectations, institutions have significantly raised their September rate hike forecasts, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, suppressing risk assets. BTC surged to 79,800 in the night session before facing long liquidations, then quickly triggered a short squeeze, and near midnight a large bearish candle slammed it back above 77,000, brutally wiping out both longs and shorts.
ETH followed the same script, peaking at 2,660 before steadily falling back above 2,500. The most frustrating thing isn't the one-sided rise or fall, but that when you think it has broken out and chase in, you get slapped back, liquidity being washed back and forth.
Light positions without leverage can still watch the show, but high-frequency short-term traders and those all-in have been repeatedly beaten. Data releases easily lead to "buying the rumor, selling the fact," with over $700 million liquidated across the network, nearly $450 million outflow from ETFs in three days, and institutions retreating from the bottom. The market's volatility easily causes illusions: "This time I caught it," but the next second the market tells you it was just liquidity.
Macro tolerance is extremely low; 77,000 is the life-or-death line for longs and shorts. Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal, control your leverage, and wait for confirmation of interest rate paths and volume before making moves. Will you profit or cut losses? BTC ETH #PPI #CPI #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 There is an outflow from the $BTC ETF, so why can $ETH still strengthen? Funds are undergoing structural rotation. Continuous net outflows from the BTC ETF will suppress the market's resilience, but if ETH products continue to attract capital and the ETH/BTC ratio rises, it indicates a preference shift toward high Beta. My judgment is cautious: if $BTC fails to hold 76,000, the rotation may turn into an overall risk reduction; if BTC stabilizes and ETH breaks through 2600 with volume, the strength shift may continue. Keep an eye on ETF net flows, ETH/BTC, and US Treasury yields. #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 $MSTR
It is unlikely that it is still purely a speculative leveraged Bitcoin play.
However, becoming a sophisticated capital machine does not mean it has become a burden to traditional finance.
One thing worth mentioning is that $STRC is a perpetual preferred stock, listed on the balance sheet as equity rather than debt, which means MicroStrategy has no pressure to repay principal, only the obligation to pay dividends periodically.
This eliminates refinancing risk. The principal of $STRC is equivalent to a permanent capital injection for the company, and when secondary market trading is above par value, MicroStrategy can issue new preferred shares at market price anytime to raise USD cash. The raised fiat funds are immediately converted into a fixed total supply of absolutely scarce Bitcoin.
This is a huge windfall for $MSTR common shareholders:
1. Positive capital arbitrage flywheel / zero principal pressure financing, attracting traditional capital seeking fixed high yields.
2. No dilution of Bitcoin holdings, preserving the ownership and Bitcoin per share of $MSTR common stock.
In summary, the returns belong to common shareholders, while $STRC preferred stock investors only receive fixed dividend returns.
And the Bitcoin purchased with this principal, along with its future capital appreciation, fiat depreciation hedge, and asset inflation, is fully enjoyed by $MSTR common shareholders.
⏱️ Market cutoff point: 2026.09.13 16:44 | Beijing time: BTC is about $76,815, ETH is about $2,494. But looking only at the two USDT quotes, it's easy to miss something more interesting today: under the same market gauge, BTC fell about 0.67% and ETH dropped about 1.51%—ETH fell even faster. Prices change at any time, so you can check BTC and the latest ETH quotes. So I will open an additional ETH/BTC chart. It measures ETH's strength relative to BTC, not whether ETH has risen. Based on the above quotation, the current price is about 0.0325. If BTC rebounds and ETH/BTC continues to fall, I won't rush to interpret a bullish candlestick for BTC as "the whole market is strengthening." This is just a sign that risk appetite remains weak, not proof of capital flows. Next, watch three moves: $BTC whether it can recover and hold 77,000; $ETH whether it can recover 2,500; and whether ETH/BTC can stop falling simultaneously. If these three are not synchronized, the rebound deserves extra caution. Next week is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16. Before the results are announced, don't turn a short-term rally over the weekend into a confirmed trend. Fed meeting schedule by Jiang Jinzhou
JINZHOU JIANG is for market exchange only and does not constitute investment advice.$ETH Ethereum has dropped to 2492, with a 24-hour low touching 2486.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $436 million, with long positions liquidated at $323 million, and Ethereum liquidations at $141 million ranking first. Over 90,000 people were taken out.
Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $216 million yesterday, with BlackRock alone contributing $149 million, buying for three consecutive days.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have had net outflows for four consecutive days, with another $13.2 million running out yesterday.
Funds are shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
But Wintermute deposited 61,847 Ethereum, worth $160 million, into Binance and Coinbase in the past three hours. Market makers are transferring large amounts into exchanges, signaling short-term selling pressure.
On one side, ETFs are buying; on the other, whales are exiting. Retail longs were liquidated for $8.45 million, shorts for $4.92 million—both sides are suffering.
There’s an even scarier data point: if Ethereum falls below 2409, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major exchanges will reach $645 million. There are many leveraged longs lying in wait below, who could be taken out at any moment.
In the past, I would have rushed in at times like this. I thought ETF buying meant a bottom, and a drop was an opportunity.
This time it’s different. Ethereum dropping below 2493 has nothing to do with me, ETF buying has nothing to do with me, and the $645 million waiting to be liquidated below also has nothing to do with me.
Let’s discuss in the comments: with Ethereum breaking below 2493 this time, do you think it can hold 2400? $ARB Originally wanted to cut losses and sacrifice to the heavens, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself.
During the repeated oscillations in the market, I noticed that ARB's rebounds were getting weaker each time, with resistance above pressing down like a mountain. While others were running, I felt a shorting opportunity was coming, so I went short against the sentiment. Many thought I was crazy at the time, but the market cures all kinds of disbelief.
The price action confirmed the judgment: entered short at 0.19556, dropped to the target at 0.13480, a +1554.25% gain realized. What rebound? This was more like CPR for the short accounts! Really satisfying, this wait was not in vain.
In terms of operation, first close 70% to take profits, keep the remaining 30% with a trailing stop just a bit above the cost price. Even if there is a rebound later, it will only be a small pullback, not causing serious damage. Profits in hand are truly yours.
Now is not the time to chase shorts; wait for the correction structure to form before considering the next round. The market is not short of opportunities, but patience is needed. I will notify immediately. Stay steady and don't be reckless, there is more profit ahead.
$BNB $ETH $5.5 million invested in Q2, what is the Ethereum Foundation buying?
The Ethereum Foundation disclosed that the total funding for Q2 2026 is about $5.503 million, covering areas such as protocols, zero-knowledge proofs, clients, developer tools, privacy, and security.
This figure is not exaggerated compared to the R&D budgets of large tech companies; the focus is on how the funds are distributed. Projects include QUIC networking, Web3j maintenance, as well as local proofs, AI security agents, private reading, and new consensus clients.
It does not just bet on a single narrative that is easiest to hype but fills in different parts needed for the protocol’s long-term operation. Many projects may not directly increase token prices but could reduce risks of upgrade failures, tooling gaps, and infrastructure centralization.
For $ETH holders, the funding list is more worth looking at than just hearing "the ecosystem is thriving." Where the money flows often reflects where the team sees the real bottlenecks.
Of course, receiving funding does not guarantee project success. Follow-up depends on code, delivery, and real adoption. But publicly disclosing funding directions at least allows the market to track whether R&D investments are being fulfilled, rather than just listening to roadmaps.0.14 position $ARB Long-short ratio extremely divergent, long sentiment overheated but price stagnant, opened short 50x, currently 0.13434, floating profit 202.14%, underlying down 4.04%.
High long-short ratio combined with key resistance level is often the starting point for the main force to reverse and harvest. 50x reverse tolerance is only about 2%, 0.13434 approaching previous low support, risk of pullback intensifies.
Major holders partially cash out, tail positions push loss cost line. Extreme sentiment plus price stagnation is the core of this entry. $BTC $LAB 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟣 $SOL | Capital rotation is accelerating 👀
📊 $BTC still controls the overall market direction, currently fluctuating around $77.8K; $ETH has returned above $2.6K, and $SOL is retesting the $205 area. The altcoin market is beginning to show a more obvious rebound in risk appetite.
🧠 What really matters is not the rise of a single coin, but whether ETH + SOL can continue to outperform while BTC holds steady. If trading volume and open interest increase simultaneously, it indicates that capital is gradually spreading from BTC to high-beta assets.
🔥 The latest catalysts cannot be ignored: after US inflation data came in lower than some market concerns, expectations for rate cuts have reignited; meanwhile, BTC spot ETF capital flows still show significant fluctuations, and institutional funds have not completely stopped but are reallocating among different assets.
⚠️ The trading logic is simple: BTC holds key support → ETH continues strong momentum → SOL breaks out with volume → altcoins may enter a second round of liquidity expansion.
But if BTC falls below $76K again, this bullish structure needs to be reassessed.
📌 BTC sets the direction, ETH reflects capital diffusion, SOL measures risk appetite.
#DailyOrbit #BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoMarket #BitcoinETF #AltcoinSeason # Splitting over one million U into five parts, even keeping fifty thousand cash waiting for the data release to catch the oversell, this kind of plan looks comprehensive but actually pushes all the timing pressure onto oneself.
Observers can see more clearly: each batch of building positions relies on subsequent market validation; if the price doesn't cooperate, discipline turns into continuous position reduction.
What is truly magnified is not the profit but the frequency of judgment errors. The phrase "leverage only on trends" presupposes that trends can be identified in advance, and there is precisely no evidence for that.
I am watching whether $BTC can retake eighty thousand accompanied by increased volume. If it falls below seventy-five thousand, this batch-building logic will fail before the price does.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 $BTC After looking at the leaderboard for a long time, here’s an easy pitfall to avoid.
There are plenty of people with high returns on the leaderboard, but not many can consistently lead trades for more than half a year — I pulled some data, and an average of 482 days leading trades is considered a long time.
Many people choose signal providers by looking at returns at first glance, which is almost the easiest way to get burned — high short-term returns often mean high leverage and big drawdowns. My own criteria are only three:
- The signal provider has been leading trades long enough (at least through one full cycle of ups and downs)
- The maximum drawdown can be withstood
- The number of followers steadily increases, not fluctuating up and down
Returns are the result, not the cause. Those who survive long-term naturally don’t have poor returns.
Which metric do you value most when choosing a signal provider? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#CryptoMarket #TraderMarket Overview
**$BTC **: 76,800—77,300, down 3.31% for the week. Who would have thought at the start of the week when it was still at 79,800 that today it would be scraping the floor below 77,000. PPI year-on-year at 5.4%, core CPI month-on-month at 0.3%, all exceeding expectations. Bitcoin feels like a student being publicly read their report card by the teacher—stubbornly saying "I'm really not panicking," but its legs are already shaking. The bet on a September rate hike surged from 60% to 90%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high. Bitcoin holding above 76,000 is already quite resilient. Is just staying alive a win? Staying alive is a win.
**$ETH **: $2,498, down 1.16% in 24h, breaking below the 2,500 mark. Even with BTC down, it has no strength to pull up; ETH/BTC is quietly recovering but with limited amplitude. The continuous net inflow into Ethereum ETFs for four weeks is the only confidence booster, but before the FOMC meeting, a rebound is not a reversal—don’t mistake the rehearsal for the main show. The script for this week is actually simple: US economic data broadly exceeded expectations, inflation is not dead yet, and rate hike expectations are fully priced in. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000, three times the expectation; PPI year-on-year at 5.4% is higher than expected, and core CPI month-on-month at 0.3% also exceeded forecasts. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and UBS collectively revised their stance to bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in September, with the federal funds rate terminal range at 4.00%-4.25%. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 65 to 60, still in the greed zone but trending downward.$MU The most comfortable part of this wave is that the market hardly gave the bulls any decent counterattack.
After I positioned short near 975.98, the 4-hour chart has been pressing down below the moving averages, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 forming a clear bearish alignment. The rebound has never managed to reclaim the 968–978 range. Now the price has dropped to around 944, and the position's unrealized profit has reached +163.98%.
From the chart perspective, 943.30 is the nearest recent low, and next we will see if it gets directly broken. If it truly breaks, the weakness will continue; but currently, KDJ is already at a low level, so if it continues down, be wary of a sudden quick rebound.
Therefore, I will not add more shorts now. I will keep the profit positions running while gradually moving the stop-loss lower. Once the direction is right, the most important thing is not to squeeze out the last bit of profit, but to avoid letting the market take back the profits already in hand. $BTC $ETH #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 Weekend semiconductor and AI negative news intensifies, with the core issues being "supply disruption + demand doubts + high valuation."
· Semiconductor: Memory manufacturers have suspended price quotes, causing a "food shortage" in the supply chain; HPE states chip supply remains a bottleneck; DeepSeek reduces HBM usage; Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung and other memory stocks plummet; DRAM price hike expectations are revised downward, customers start resisting high prices; the National IC Fund reduces holdings in Semco Communications, major funds flow out significantly.
· AI: OpenAI announces no IPO in 2026; Anthropic calls for AI "slowdown," with rare agreement from Musk and Altman; ECB President Lagarde warns of AI overvaluation; US-China AI regulatory competition escalates; Hong Kong AI model stocks under pressure.
· Micron: Taiwan factory union is brewing a strike, with over 80% member support, demanding bonus system reform; Micron offers a 35–68 months salary bonus plan to quell unrest; if the strike happens, it will impact global DRAM and HBM supply.
· Oracle: AI cloud revenue surges, but capital expenditure is huge, free cash flow is negative, and gross margin declines; adds $700 million restructuring layoffs; $664 billion order fulfillment cycle is long, market worries about unsustainable AI cash burn.
Overall: On the supply side, there is a risk of Micron strike; on the demand side, Oracle's cash burn raises doubts; combined with AI slowdown and valuation warnings, semiconductor and AI sectors sentiment is bearish on Monday.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX The market has now fully entered the frustrating pre-rate decision phase, with back-and-forth probing and counterattacks, both bulls and bears testing each other's bottom lines.
$ETH has gone through several rounds of up and down fake orders, positions have been held without being shaken out; in a volatile market, patiently holding positions is far more important than frequent adjustments.
$ZEC short positions have smoothly captured a wave of profits, but high-leverage trading has an extremely low error tolerance—one wrong judgment can lead to significant drawdowns, so never blindly replicate strategies with heavy positions.
After a rapid drop, Bitcoin quickly reclaimed its support range without establishing a new direction. The main players are continuously clearing out short-term chips lacking conviction, waiting for macro news to land before choosing a true direction.
The altcoin market is very fragmented; some short-term coins suddenly surge, but once the hype fades, they quickly fall back. Chasing hot spots can easily trap you at the top.
Many traders fall into the same trap: continuously opening positions in a non-trending, choppy market, afraid of missing any small move. In the end, they get stopped out repeatedly, and even if they occasionally make a few profits, it’s hard to maintain overall account gains.
When the direction is unclear, it’s wise to reduce trading frequency, prioritize capital safety, and wait for high-certainty opportunities before acting.
I want to ask everyone: during a choppy phase, do you lightly test positions or take a break and observe?
#ReduceFrequentTradingBeforeRateDecision
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 OpenAI and Anthropic haven't even gone public yet, but they're already being hyped to the sky? The bubble of Pre-IPO tokens is becoming impossible to hide.
Long.xyz on Robinhood Chain just launched Pre-IPO perpetual contracts for OpenAI and Anthropic. Just 26 minutes later, a meme coin called ANTHROPIG appeared on the same chain to ride the hype. It opened with a market cap of $550,000 and surged to $4.24 million in an hour and a half, a 670% increase, then immediately halved back down to $1.91 million.
Even more absurd is the valuation bubble: the implied valuation of Anthropic from the on-chain perpetual contracts has already reached $1.94 trillion, more than double its last round valuation. OpenAI's implied valuation is also at $852 billion, a 42% premium. But the underlying contract's 24-hour trading volume is only $190,000, while the meme coin's turnover rate is 23 times that of the underlying asset, with no spot arbitrage mechanism to back it up—purely driven by speculative capital sentiment. Do you think this kind of on-chain speculation of unlisted assets is a new wealth code or just a pure Ponzi scheme?
⚠️ Pre-IPO tokens are high-risk experimental products with extremely poor liquidity. Do not invest heavily.
#Robinhood加密交易量8月环比增61% #OpenAICEO称2026年不会IPO I like to trade before strong events. But the Fed is one of those moments when I can change my mind in just one candle. Now BTC is near $77K, and the market is already actively laying down a scenario for changing the rate. Therefore, I decided to honestly decompose: 🟢 5 FOR TRADING TO THE FED 1. Volatility The closer the decision, the greater the chances of a strong movement. For a trader, this is an opportunity. 2. The levels are already visible BTC has support around $76-77K, and the $78.5K zone is important to me from above. That is, there is a place to look for a reaction. 3. The market can moveAfter the market rebound tested the resistance area, it faced pressure and fell back, once again starting a downward test. From the four-hour cycle structure, it is clearly observed that Bitcoin repeatedly encountered resistance at the Bollinger middle band, with the Bollinger bands opening downward overall, and the bearish structure remains unchanged.
It was previously indicated that if the price rebounds to the Bollinger middle band position but fails to form an effective breakthrough, there is a risk of continued downward testing, and the current trend has confirmed this prediction.
Focus on the 765-760 support range below, and continue to observe the testing situation of this support zone. $BTC $ETH Term Structure Radar
$BTC annualized basis at three expiration points is relatively flat: near-term, mid-term, and long-term annualized basis are +5.24%/+4.95%/+4.85% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$132.0. The annualized pricing differences across the three terms are small, with no significant widening of term premiums.
$ETH annualized pricing at three expiration points is not unidirectional: near-term, mid-term, and long-term annualized basis are +3.93%/+4.27%/+3.42% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$3.22.
$SOL annualized pricing at three expiration points is not unidirectional: near-term, mid-term, and long-term annualized basis are +3.96%/+1.47%/+1.86% respectively; the near-term contract's raw spread relative to the index is +$0.13.
BTC, ETH, SOL: all three expiration points are in contango.
ETH, SOL: the mid-term expiration breaks the monotonic arrangement, and the difference between near and far terms is insufficient to summarize the entire curve. 300 million short positions liquidated collectively in 24 hours! Is this Ethereum short squeeze a bull market start signal or a bull trap?
Yesterday, the crypto market staged an epic short squeeze: Ethereum surged over 8% in a single day, breaking through the $2,500 mark. Coinglass data shows that over $300 million worth of ETH short positions were forcibly liquidated in the past 24 hours, with Binance alone liquidating $76 million in shorts. The total long and short liquidations across the crypto market reached $668 million, the highest level since Bitcoin's record liquidation wave in August.
What’s more noteworthy is that before this rally, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts turned negative, meaning shorts were paying to maintain their positions. As the price rose, they were forced into cascading liquidations, pushing the price even higher—a classic short squeeze scenario. Now the question is: is this surge just a short-term impulse caused by short covering, or the start of a new trend after August’s rally? Should you add to your ETH holdings or exit?
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#日银年内再加息成焦点 What is LSK (Lisk)
Lisk is a veteran public chain project from 2016, with the native token LSK. Initially, it focused on developing sidechain applications using JS language; later it transitioned to Ethereum OP stack L2.
The core trigger for this surge: the official announcement that the Lisk chain itself will be permanently shut down on October 31, requiring users to cross-chain migrate LSK to Ethereum, while proposing to burn 100 million LSK, reducing total supply from 400 million to 300 million (25% deflation).
Market speculation logic: burn and supply cut + tokens not migrated will be permanently invalidated, creating a chip game; combined with futures capital clustering, leading to a violent price surge.
Why the surge, market characteristics
1. This is event-driven short-term sentiment speculation, not an improvement in fundamentals: the project's native chain is shutting down, the project is transforming, representing a "doomsday narrative + burn benefit," not a long-term value story.
2. Market features: small market cap, thin spot market, rapid accumulation of futures positions, many shorts have been continuously liquidated (shorts killing shorts, forcing short squeeze). In the last 24 hours, many shorts were forcibly closed, allowing the price to surge again instantly.
3. Extreme volatility: hundreds of percent price swings in a short time, very sharp spikes, double-sided liquidation, and contract funding rates will fluctuate violently.
Can you short it?
It is highly not recommended to open leveraged shorts on LSK due to extremely high risk, reasons:
1. Event-driven markets are the hardest to predict tops: the positive narrative has not yet materialized (burn proposal voting and migration deadline are still ahead), this forced short squeeze rally can continue. $ETH in 24 hours -1.40% versus BTC -0.63% — difference -0.77 p.p.
With a position of 14% within the daily range, the question is simple: is this real relative strength or is the movement already fading?The most obvious change in $HYPE these past two days is not how fast it has fallen, but that each rebound is getting weaker.
I chose to short around 80.569 because I saw the 4-hour rebound consistently suppressed below the moving averages; MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all trending downward. After pushing up near 82 earlier, it couldn't hold and instead returned to a weak momentum. The price has now dropped to around 77.94, with an unrealized profit of +163.15%.
Next, I won't rush to close all positions; I'll first watch if the short-term low at 77.67 can be further broken. If it breaks down, the bears still have room to continue; but if the price recovers back to 79.2–80.0, we need to be cautious of an oversold rebound.
Overall, the structure is still bearish, but the position is no longer high. It's okay to hold on, but chasing shorts is unnecessary. After taking profits, the focus shifts from "watching the direction" to "protecting profits." $BTC $ETH #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 Nasdaq has injected $100 million into Kraken's parent company. Retail investors are still waiting for the golden cross revival at $BTC 77,000, while institutions have already started pricing the "license to continue selling $BTC in the future." One is trading coins, the other is trading licenses. The K-line only matters to the former. #马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 $SOL fell below 100, closing at 99.99, down 1.59% in 24 hours.
The interesting thing about this number is that it's just one cent away from the triple digit. The project team probably didn't expect that after holding onto the whole number threshold for so long, it would be exposed by their own market page.
The drop isn't that big—1.59% wouldn't even make a splash in a normal day. But for holders, the price hitting triple digits and falling back into double digits are two different things.
The ecosystem is still running, TVL and daily active users haven't collapsed, but the market is pricing it and refuses to pay a penny more.
Prices won't be generous just because the project team is working hard.
#ZEC机构资金入场, high-level leverage began to be cleared
#加密财库分化: Buy coins or buyback? #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4 $550 million $SOL I looked at a set of data, quite interesting, sharing it with you.
BTC is currently 76,910 (24h -0.52%), with a long-short contract position ratio of 1.67
Basically unchanged, market sentiment is quite neutral.
On the spot side, in the last 1 hour of active trades, the sell orders are more aggressive, with a buy-sell ratio of 0.39.
My experience is: the long-short ratio reflects retail sentiment; places with more people often aren't where the money is. When the ratio is high, I tend to be more cautious.
Are you currently long or short?
#BTC #CryptoMarket #ContractsPlatform coins are stable, while meme coins and AI coins are at two extremes
$BNB 727, the stabilizer among mainstream coins, rose 27% in a month, with the smallest pullback in this cycle. Binance's regular burns plus on-chain ecosystem support hold it up. A volume breakout above the previous high of 733 will open up space. In a choppy market, holding it is safe; it's the base position in this group.
$ZEC 1152, the meme coin here, rebounded 6%, with trading volume 82% above average, but it has already risen 134% in 30 days and is still 81% below its all-time high. The previous high at 1200 is a watershed. This kind of coin can jump 10% or drop 9% in a day, so you have to trade quickly and set stop losses.
$WLD 0.40, the AI narrative coin, Altman's iris ID project, rose 21% in a month but just dropped 20% from a weekly high of 0.50. Its price depends entirely on news about the people involved; if it breaks 0.37, it will look for lower levels.
Three personalities in one group: hold $BNB steady, trade $ZEC with stop losses for volatility, and gamble on the narrative with $WLD. Don't treat meme coins like stable coins, and don't treat narrative coins as base positions. This kind of mix during the day is mainstream aiming not to lose, while altcoins seek volatility.🚨 On the Eve of the FOMC｜The Fed Throws Cold Water, But the Crypto Market Insists on "Feigning Revival and Dancing"! BTC Playing Dead, ETH Stealing the Show, SOL Sideways, DOGE Hiding — Full Record
Market Overview
**$BTC**: 76,800–77,300, down 3.31% this week. Who would have thought at the start of the week when it was still at 79,800 that today it would be scraping the floor below 77,000. PPI year-on-year 5.4%, core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, all exceeding expectations. BTC feels like a student being publicly read their report card by the teacher — stubbornly saying "I'm really not panicking," but its legs are already shaking. The bet on a September rate hike surged from 60% to 90%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high. BTC holding above 76,000 is already a sign of resilience. Staying alive is winning? Staying alive is winning.
**$ETH**: $2,498, down 1.16% in 24h, breaking below the 2,500 mark. BTC is lying flat and has no strength to pull it up; ETH/BTC is quietly recovering but with limited gains, like a student standing in punishment raising their hand to answer — answered, but not correctly. Ethereum ETFs have had net inflows for four consecutive weeks, which is the only confidence booster, but before the FOMC meeting, a rebound is not a reversal; don’t mistake the rehearsal for the main show.
**$SOL**: $99.99, breaking below the 100-dollar psychological level, down 1.59% in 24h. Repeated sideways moves just before the 100 mark: breaking 100 with a shout, hitting 101 to act tough, now sliding below 100 lying flat. Meme tokens still have some residual heat but are clearly fading; when macro tightens, it flees fastest — 100 is not a solid bottom, just a temporary stepping stone; 95 is the next real test.
**$DOGE**: Around $0.08, basically flat with less than 1% volatility in 24h. Elon Musk remains in silent mode; the dog curls up and ignores everyone. Above 0.079 is called "cute pet pullback," breaking below triggers "stray dog mode" — don’t catch flying knives with faith; flying knives don’t recognize their owner.
News Summary
This week’s script is actually simple: US economic data broadly exceeded expectations, inflation is not dead yet, and rate hike expectations are fully priced in. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000, triple the forecast; PPI year-on-year 5.4% higher than expected; core CPI month-on-month 0.3% also exceeded. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and UBS all revised their stance to bet on a 25 basis point hike in September, with the federal funds rate terminal range seen at 4.00%-4.25%. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 65 to 60, still in the greed zone but trending downward.
Jiang Zhuoer’s scenario is to first sweep the 76k liquidation zone before deciding direction; holding 75k could bounce back to 80k or even touch 83-84k; breaking 75k means looking at 70-72k. Regardless of the scenario, the eve of the FOMC is not the time to be fully invested.
Today is not a bull comeback, but a "fake revival" on the eve of the decision. The more hype, the more you need to control your hands: no full positions, no naked leverage; the FOMC is the main event.
$ETH $BTC#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4 50 million USD
Is Bitcoin still digital gold?! 🤔️
Last week they were desperately stuffing into Bitcoin, and this week they've started pumping out, turning around to buy Ethereum.
Institutions treat Bitcoin like digital gold, with only a limited total supply, and in the long run, it serves as a ballast stone.
But gold doesn't earn interest, nor does it run its own business. Ethereum is different—it has on-chain applications, staking rewards, and is more like a machine still making money.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive days, with about $13 million more withdrawn last Friday, totaling about 460 million withdrawals over four days.
However, the Ethereum ETF has reversed and attracted over 200 million yuan, with weekly net inflows for four consecutive weeks. Perhaps the fund is re-rotating its positions.
Bitcoin is still the same Bitcoin. A hard currency capped at 21 million tokens. Ethereum is a network that can run contracts and stake. One is like a gold bar, the other is like a rent-bearing storefront.
So the two complement each other!
Bitcoin is now a legitimate financial product! It won't crash over a little sell-off!
#PPI. After the CPI was released, many institutions raised their expectations for a rate hike in September
#财报观察员: Oracle AI Cloud Revenue Up 121% 🚨 GPUs used for 4 years not only haven't become "junk," but renewal prices have actually increased by 20%? Oracle's data reveals the real demand in the AI computing power market🔥
On September 13, Serenity shared an interesting data point from Oracle (ORCL)'s earnings report: all GPUs entering the renewal phase have found buyers again, and the new contract prices are about 20% higher than the original contracts.
More importantly, many of these GPUs have been used for over 4 years.
To put it simply, it's like a car that's been driven for 4 years—normally people would expect it to get cheaper, but now not only are people competing to rent it, the rent has increased by 20%. Why? It's not that the machines suddenly became new, but because AI computing power demand is so strong that the market still lacks "working GPUs."💰
This directly challenges the "big short" Burry's previous view on rapid GPU depreciation. He worried that AI companies update GPUs too quickly, causing old equipment to lose value fast; but Oracle's disclosed data at least provides a counterexample: as long as computing power demand is strong enough, old GPUs are still wanted and can even be rented out at higher prices.
If this situation continues, it will be a positive signal for computing infrastructure companies like Nvidia (NVDA), NBIS, IREN, and Neocloud.
So what does this have to do with the crypto world?
Actually, the connection is growing stronger.Weekend sideways movement is not an opportunity, but a trap?
On Saturday night, the market entered a low volatility state, with BTC oscillating repeatedly around the 77000-78000 range, and neither bulls nor bears showing clear active attacks. The current macro environment remains cautious, the market is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy path, and risk assets lack catalysts for sustained rallies.
BTC is currently around 77400, and the biggest short-term problem is not falling, but failing to rise. There is obvious resistance near 78000, with multiple tests but no volume breakout, indicating that buying momentum is not strong. After the previous rebound, the market has entered a key resistance zone; if it cannot hold above, it is prone to a rise-and-fall pattern.
My plan remains unchanged: do not chase the rise, just wait for the right position. Continue to place short orders in the 77700-78000 area, and do not open positions proactively before they are triggered. The greatest advantage in trading is not predicting every move, but staying out when there is no certainty.
ETH's trend is weaker than BTC's, with insufficient rebound strength; still waiting for a better shorting opportunity in the short term. Continue to hold long-term OKB positions, not participating in short-term noise.
Tonight's biggest gain is not how much profit is made, but controlling the desire to trade. Sideways markets most easily consume capital; if there is no opportunity, wait, and only act when there is one.
The market will never lack opportunities; what is lacking is patience. Weekend liquidity is insufficient, and the real direction often comes late at night or when funds re-enter next week. Place short orders well and wait for the market to give the answer. $BTC $ETH #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期