Orbit Post Sitemap
Nearly 90% bet on rate hikes, yet BTC hovered around 77,000 and refused to move—this picture is very subtle. Do you think the market is too calm, or are people waiting for a reason not to move first? I watched the market all day, and my biggest feeling wasn't panic, but hesitation. Rate hike expectations were close to 90%, which should have weighed on risk assets, but BTC didn't crash—it just kept grinding around 77,000. This kind of sideways move is neither strong nor weak; it's the crowd collectively moving their fingers off the order button before the FOMC. What's really interesting is the temperature difference between sectors. ETH is holding 2500, and only above 2600 are people willing to buy, targeting 2800 to 3000, but the flow of funds after the FOMC is the key. ZEC, a highly volatile product, is set aside as a trend position: only buy above 1200, reduce below 1150, cut in half if 1080 falls, and only add volume after 1250 breaks. SOL is more cautious, only watching near 100, only entering after 105 confirms. This isn't bullish or bearish; it's the discipline of position after being taught narrative fatigue. The allocation of 1.1 million U is itself a sentiment map. BTC 350,000, ETH 250,000, ZEC 200,000, SOL 150,000, cash 50,000. That 50,000 in cash isn't idle; it's reserved for a possible selling window after the FOMC. Leverage capped at 3x, only trend trading, not using high leverage to gamble on data. Simply put, when trading, it's not about direction, but about reaction speed after events unfold. The path to a bullish bias is clear: if rate hikes are dovish, BTC will stand up$BEAT - Daily: Bulls 30%, Bears 70%
Reason: Bears reduce positions to stop the decline, but OBV continues to flow out, no incremental bullish funds, the overall trend remains bearish.
- 4-hour: Bulls 38%, Bears 62%
Reason: Bottom consolidation, short positions closing bring a slight rebound, but without increased positions to support, the rebound is easily pressured and likely to fall back.
- Short-term: Bulls 48%, Bears 52%
Reason: Range consolidation, bears closing positions support the bottom, upward movement lacks volume, the upper resistance zone offers a better risk-reward ratio for shorting.
5. Trading Plan
Resistance zone shorting (priority approach)
Entry range: 0.0910 ~ 0.0919, touching 4h EMA30, 15-minute long upper shadow, RSI turning down
✅ Additional filter: Price surges but OI does not show a significant increase, OBV still declining, this is an excellent shorting signal indicating no new funds in the rise; if price rises with a large sustained increase in OI, cancel the short plan.
Stop loss: 0.0945
First take profit: 0.0800; Second take profit: 0.0730
First take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.83:1 | Second take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 6.17:1BTC breaks out with increased volume on the 4-hour chart, but the trading volume of seven coins drops by 31% in the next hour
BTC closed at 77593.4 between 08:00 and 12:00, surpassing the previous 4H high of 77452.1; the trading volume for this period was 3.65 times that of the previous period.
Between 12:00 and 13:00, six out of seven sample coins still closed higher, but the total trading volume dropped from 35.9555 million to 24.7876 million USDT, a decrease of 31.06%. ETH closed at 2514.86, still below the previous 4H high of 2527.63, so the breakout has not yet fully spread.
Confirmation: BTC closes above 77864.3 in the next hour, and the sample trading volume returns above 35.955 million; invalidation: BTC closes below 77452.1. Would you consider the volume contraction as a breakout consolidation, or wait for ETH to surpass 2527.63 first?
#BTC #ETH #MainstreamCoins #TradingWatch$BTC market is red but lonely, market cap +0.37%, trading volume exploded by 31%—volume is out, but it's all concentrated on BTC.
Altcoins are all green, the stock sector dropped the hardest at -1.95%, meme, AI, DeFi all pulling down one after another. BTC dominance is nearly 60% again, funds haven't moved to altcoins at all, they're all hiding in BTC for safety.
Right now:
BTC 77500+, back to being a safe haven
ETH 2511, looks like it hasn't dropped much but just can't rise, trading volume even bigger than BTC—trapped positions are still grinding
ZEC 1113, -2.7%, the cannon fodder among privacy coins, falling the hardest
SOL 101, lying flat
One detail: ETH trading volume is 6.22 billion, nearly 60% larger than BTC's 3.925 billion; this morning the ratio was 1.84 times, now narrowed to 1.58 times. Narrowing ratio = turnover/pressure on ETH is easing, the chips chasing highs and stop losses this morning have mostly left. But as long as ETH volume is still bigger than BTC and price is weaker than BTC, it means ETH is still digesting floating chips, not ready to launch.
Don't rush into altcoins just because the market is red today; this market is the "Did you make money?" phase, not the "Making money" phase. Those with heavy positions should hold tight to BTC, light positions shouldn't rush to bottom-fish altcoins, wait until the sector stops being green to talk. What did I say?
I already said it doesn't have the three advantages of timing, geography, and human harmony!
What I said yesterday came true this morning.
This morning, I guess many brothers were wailing, a deep underwater bomb directly smashed down to 1040.
Although it has pulled back now, there's no panic at all; this pullback is just a small rebound.
If it doesn't pull back, that would actually be a big problem.
Why is the manipulator doing this now?
The main reason the manipulator is doing this is to change retail investors' psychology, making everyone believe that the 1040 level below $ZEC is a solid bottom, an unbreakable floor.
If people think this way, that's exactly what the manipulator wants to see.
The timing, geography, and human harmony I mentioned yesterday still hold today: the Fed's rate hike expectations are pressing down, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have collectively turned bearish (timing).
ZEC was pushed up to 1299 by positive factors like NYSE listing and Grayscale ETF, but now the positive news is exhausted and it continues to drift down (geography).
The latest long-short ratio data shows large holders shorting at 72.05%, while retail investors blindly chase longs, making the long side extremely crowded (human harmony).
The big trend is downward; any rebound is just a paper tiger.
My 50x short at 1147 didn't run when it dropped to 1040 this morning, and now that it's back, I definitely won't run.
Don't be fooled by this brief illusion; let's wait for the waterfall. Watch it break below 1000.
$BTC
$ETH
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ 这轮行情有个细节值得单拎出来说：以太坊比比特币强太多。 看结构就明白。以太坊下方的支撑位在持续上移，说明需求在增加、多头动能没退。上方那道水平压力，在上周 CPI 数据出来之后已经形成一次向上突破，而且突破后没有回头跌破支撑。所以我的判断很直接——即便本周再出利空、盘面受打压，以太坊大概也就是回踩一下，2400 这个核心支撑短期很难破。真别轻易看空它。 延伸到山寨。现在这波其实是以太坊在领涨，BNB 作为山寨龙头自然也硬，抗风险属性摆在那。但山寨整体我得泼盆冷水：现在喊“暴涨”还早。 原因有几层。一是熊市调整的时间周期还不够，从高点下来满打满算才两百多天，按四年周期的逻辑还差一截。二是山寨的本质是引流，把人从山寨吸引到圈内，焦点最终会回到比特币，给大饼引流、吸资金。交易所从去年开始上美股代币化，本质也是因为山寨流动性在枯竭，绝大多数几千万市值的山寨最终会被淘汰，只留很少一部分主流和龙头。 所以我的态度：主流和龙头山寨仍有机会，涨幅可能比比特币高一点，但不会夸张；那些没涨的、纯讲故事的，现在一律不碰。 有人问以太坊涨到 3300 要不要大仓位换仓买以太坊、等它上 3000 以上再换回大饼3. ETF·Institutional Funds (The Most Important Spot Signal)
✅ BTC Bitcoin
In the past 4 trading days, there has been continuous net redemption outflows, totaling about $462 million for the week. Institutions have been reducing positions and taking profits on rallies in the short term, without continuing to significantly increase holdings. This is one of the core reasons why BTC struggles to break above 79,300.
✅ ETH Ethereum
Completely the opposite, last Friday saw a large single-day net inflow of $216 million, the largest single-day inflow this month. Institutional funds are allocating to ETH, optimistic about ETH's future narrative (upgrades, spot ecosystem), so recently ETH has been relatively resilient and more elastic.
4. On-Chain Whale Movements
1. BTC: Large whales have not engaged in frantic mass sell-offs by depositing large amounts to exchanges, but small batch sell orders at high levels continue; long-term holders are still withdrawing coins to cold wallets, indicating decent bottom chip lock-in.
2. ETH: While ETF institutions are buying, some early whales are gradually transferring out to exchanges to take profits on rallies. There is a layer of potential selling pressure on ETH, which explains why despite many positive factors, each rally feels more exhausting than the last. Latest CME FedWatch data: 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
Core CPI monthly rate is 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%. The two-year US Treasury yield jumped above 4.42%. Goldman Sachs reversed its stance, changing from "no change" to "expecting a 25bp hike."
The market has already priced the rate hike into the candlestick chart.
Then Killa tweeted, with just one sentence:
"Most macro narratives are just noise. BTC starts moving before the reasons become obvious."
On one side, there's an 86% pricing; on the other, there's "stop watching."
Who is right?
First, let's clarify who Killa is.
In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688. On June 5, when the market dropped broadly, he reversed to long. In May 2025, he predicted the peak of this bull market.
This is not a talkative KOL. This is someone who speaks with positions.
He says macro is noise, not to show off. He's telling you: by the time you focus on CPI data and dot plots to trade, the price has already moved.
Correlation is lagging. The market doesn't move because most people understand it—most people think they understand because the market has moved.
But 86% and the "noise theory" are actually not contradictory.
This is what most people haven't figured out.
What does an 86% rate hike probability mean? It means the rate hike is already priced in. Whether the Fed hikes 25bp on Wednesday is no longer news to the market. The news is something else.
The real question is never "whether to hike."
It's "what Powell says after the hike."
If he hikes and adds, "this is a one-time action," the market will instantly spit out all the fear priced in about a "restart of the tightening cycle." Short covering could pull BTC back to 78,000 or even higher. Goldman Sachs itself admits in its report: if the Fed doesn't hike when the market expects nearly 90% probability, "it could trigger severe market volatility."
What hurts you is never the rate hike itself. It's that you gave up your chips at the wrong position out of fear of the hike.
So what should ordinary people do on the eve of the FOMC?
Three principles, in plain language:
1. Don't heavily bet on direction before the decision. An 86% probability is not for you to leverage up. If the remaining 13.5% happens, your position goes to zero immediately.
2. Watch the price reaction after the FOMC, not the decision itself. If the hike happens and Powell is hawkish, and BTC doesn't fall but rises—that's what Killa means by "price moves before reasons." This signal is a hundred times more valuable than the dot plot.
3. $76,380 is the current technical lifeline. This is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from BTC's June low of 57,766 to the August high of 82,130. If it breaks below here, the next target is 72,820. Don't go all in above 76,380; keep a bullet in the chamber.
An 86% rate hike probability means the market is ready.
What will really hurt you is not the rate hike itself, but that you gave up your chips at the wrong position out of fear of the hike.
$BTC $ETH $FIL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ For those still profiting from BTC, ETH, and SOL, under double pressure, should you take profits now, and how to do it in batches?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
The biggest fear with unrealized gains is riding an elevator—another dip during the day, over 120,000 liquidations across the network. The three coins that are still making money have completely different profit-taking rhythms.
With the Middle East situation heating up and the rate decision approaching, risk assets are broadly down. $BTC has fallen back to 76,700, $ETH dropped to 2,476, and $SOL is hovering around 100. It's precisely at times like these that you need to think carefully about how to protect your profits.
BTC is the anchor; you can take a large portion of your unrealized gains before the rate decision, reducing risk by selling a small part first, then selling more if it breaks 76,500. ETH is weaker than the market during the day and has lost 2,500; unrealized gains are thin, so take some profits to lock in gains and keep a base position to see if it can recover. $SOL is high beta; when risk appetite cools, it gives back gains fastest. Prioritize taking profits on the flexible position, and buy back after the drop. Take profits in two to three batches—don't clear out all at once, nor hold everything.
If the Middle East situation eases and the rate decision is dovish, hold the base position to ride the rebound; if conflict escalates and the rate decision is hawkish, you won't panic if you've already taken profits, and can deal with breakdowns later. Taking profits isn't bearish; it's about not letting your gains ride an elevator back down.Korean Stock Night Session Plummets on First Day｜System Reform Meets External Pressure, Semiconductor Heavyweights Lead the Decline
The Korea Exchange officially launched night trading on September 14, becoming the first major market in Asia to introduce continuous bidding during nighttime hours. The regular trading hours remain unchanged from 9:00 to 15:30, with an added continuous bidding night session from 16:00 to 20:00, covering nearly 2,400 mainstream stocks on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ, supporting both long and short trades, with price fluctuation limits maintained at ±30%.
However, on the first day of the reform's implementation, the market did not see the expected increase in activity; instead, it opened under pressure. The KOSPI index opened lower and continued to fall, dropping more than 3% intraday. Samsung Electronics fell over 3.6%, SK Hynix plunged more than 5%, with semiconductor heavyweight stocks leading the decline.
The sharp drop was not caused by the night trading system itself. On that day, rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East put global risk assets under pressure. The Korean stock market is highly tied to the semiconductor sector, and external sentiment-driven sell-offs were the main triggers. As the night session is just starting, liquidity is relatively weak, and a small amount of capital can amplify volatility, further intensifying market fluctuations.
The core goal of Korea launching the night session is to connect with European trading hours, attract international capital inflows, reduce overnight gap risks, and overcome the "Korean stock discount" dilemma. However, extending the trading window does not directly lead to price increases; instead, it exposes the market to more overseas news shocks, simultaneously increasing volatility and slippage risks. There is still about 40% room to reach the previous high of approximately 126,000 in October 2025, and the market is still digesting the last bubble. Whether the four-year cycle is invalid depends on whether ETFs can continue to hedge selling pressure. It is currently neither a panic bottom nor a euphoric top, but a "waiting for catalyst" consolidation phase. $BTC I'm watching $SNDK: 1564, -2.89%, US stock market closed overnight. The stock is weak but NAND stabilization expectations are rising, this contradiction is interesting, let's elaborate below.
📰 News: Yahoo is focusing on a 20x rebound from the 52-week low, but GF Securities says NAND prices may stabilize in the second half of the year, which is more critical for SanDisk's fundamentals.
🔧 Technicals: Daily RSI at 53.9 neutral, MACD bearish crossover with expanding green bars, broke below MA7/MA25 but 7/25 moving averages still in bullish alignment, the pullback hasn't broken the structure.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens down 0.91%, overnight closure leaves tokens without an anchor, short-term sentiment is cautious.
🎯 Today's view: Bullish. NAND stabilization expectations + token negative premium buffer, technical pullback does not change the mid-term logic.
📊 Token 1,564.09 (-2.89%) | Stock 1,633.35 (-3.50%) | Premium -4.24% | US stock market closed overnight
💎 Summary: Watch NAND price signals and token premium recovery, don't be scared by short-term green bars.
#USStocks
#SemiconductorSector
#SanDiskPreMarket Bitcoin, Ethereum, ZEC.
The altcoins fell without resistance, the market was all gray. But quietly recovered overnight, the rebound came faster than expected.
Last night I planned: if it dips again today, find a position to go long. But the market didn’t follow the script and pulled up first. So should I chase longs now? I don’t want to. What’s rising is risk, not courage.
Should I flip to short? Not in a hurry. Let’s see how it moves first. If it’s just a weak rebound with little strength to rally, shorting opportunities will naturally appear; if it directly rallies with large volume, then wait for a stronger peak to short. Follow the trend, don’t guess the bottom, don’t feel for the top.
I used to always fight the market, stubbornly holding one direction, only to be taught a lesson by the market. From now on, no more stubbornness. Go long when it’s right, go short when it’s right, admit mistakes, wait when needed. 😎Macro window is opening, market focuses on the first rate hike expectation since 2023
9/14 Morning｜News
This week, pricing power of all assets is not in their own hands.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting. The market's bet on a 25 basis point rate hike has surged to about 87%. Core CPI remains hot, PPI hasn't dropped, and oil prices are still high. If implemented, this will be the first rate hike since July 2023 — potentially ending a more than three-year easing cycle this week.
Frankly, this is more than just a "negative" event. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, significantly raising the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Capital is repricing risk, and the first to be cut are always the highest beta and most crowded positions.
Regarding $BTC spot ETFs, from September 8 to 11, there was a net outflow of $462.7 million, directly reversing August's full-month inflow of $3.52 billion. ARKB and GBTC were the main outflow drivers, and BlackRock's IBIT was not spared. Interestingly, ETH spot ETFs saw inflows during the same period, with $216.4 million flowing in on September 11 alone, and BlackRock's ETHA had no outflows for 20 consecutive trading days. Capital preferences are diverging, not a blanket withdrawal.
---
9/14 Morning｜Market
$BTC｜Lost 77K, fell back to the lower edge of the range
Current price is suppressed below the wall. The 77,100–80,200 range holds about 539,000 long-held coins this year, with dense supply. This is not something that can be broken through by just shouting "bull comeback." Regaining 77K is just stopping the bleeding, not a breakout; don't mistake a halt in decline for a reversal.
Exchange net flows are slightly inflow-biased, and some tracked whales are quietly distributing. ETFs have had outflows for three consecutive days, but marginal buying is picking up.
Support is seen at 75,000–76,000, the lower edge of the range. If that doesn't hold, 74,000–75,000 is next in line.
Resistance is at 77,800–78,300; no direction talk until it holds above this.
---
$ETH｜Short-term weakness, following BTC's defense
Today is not a buying opportunity. ETH has shown more resilience than BTC in recent days, with ETF funds flowing in against the trend, but the short-term momentum has weakened along with the broader market. Don't assume it can remain unaffected just because it rose well recently.
Look for buying strength near 2,450 on the pullback; the 2,400–2,450 zone has been a contested area between bulls and bears, so if supported, there's still a fight. If it breaks 2,360, rotation narratives should be paused.
Support: 2,450–2,425, 2,360–2,350
Resistance: 2,508–2,524, 2,544–2,564
---
$SOL｜Psychological 100 level temporarily lost
The number 100 has never been just a number for SOL. It represents the bulls' last dignity.
Now it's lost. If it can't reclaim 100, 99 becomes a continuation of the decline, with the symmetrical triangle's measured target pointing near 84. The small ETF inflows can't change the spot supply-demand pattern — on-chain fees and TVL have already dropped significantly in the first half of the year, yet the price still overextends institutional narratives; this bill will have to be paid sooner or later.
Whales opened long positions near 100, totaling $9.11 million, going against the trend. The derivatives long-short ratio is 0.94, with more short accounts, and funding rates remain positive, meaning longs are paying to hold. Both sides have reasons at this level, but if 97.5 is effectively broken, bulls should retreat.
Support: 97.5–98, 95, 90–92.5
Resistance: 100–101.5, 105–107, 110 (near the 200-week moving average)
---
Before the policy meeting results are out, keeping positions light is not a bad idea. FOMO is the most expensive cost.
#OKX百万规划师
#特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 Sam Altman said to slow down the development pace of cutting-edge models and also confirmed no IPO in 2026. Most people interpret this as a safety statement, but I tend to see it as a pricing move.
Slowing down means the curve of computing power procurement and inference expansion is being actively flattened. The short-term beneficiaries are those computing power assets that rely on scarcity to tell their story, while the passive ones are the mid-tier waiting for model iterations to drive demand. There is no direct evidence for this step yet, so it can only be considered a hypothesis.
Not going public shifts the valuation anchor from the public market back to private equity, with the financing pace controlled by himself. To falsify this judgment, watch two points: whether existing shareholders continue to follow up in subsequent financing announcements, and whether the interval between model releases really lengthens.
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
#OpenAICEO称2026年不会IPO $ETH $BTC Recently, pressure has persisted between 76,000 and 77,000, with a brief rebound a few days ago before another pullback, indicating that overall market sentiment remains cautious. Trading volume has increased during the decline, indicating that bearish strength is still being released, and bulls are hesitant to take over. From the market structure perspective, the 76,000 area is a short-term support area. If it can hold and show signs of stopping the decline, the consolidation pattern may continue; If it effectively breaks below and is accompanied by increased volume, short-term sentiment may further turn pessimistic, and the downside space needs to be reassessed. My current position strategy is quite restrained; I have not rushed to increase positions sharply during the decline nor have I easily sold positions due to short-term drawdowns. I focus more on the effectiveness of key supports, changes in trading volume, and overall risk appetite in the market. In terms of operations, I focus more on rhythm and position management rather than trying to precisely catch the bottom or escape from the top. Market sentiment changes quickly; today's support may turn into resistance tomorrow. Maintaining some flexibility is more important than stubbornly holding onto a single direction. From a longer-term perspective, BTC is still in a relatively high consolidation phase. The gains in recent months have accumulated considerable profit-taking, so pullbacks are a normal phenomenon. The key lies in the depth and speed of the pullback, and whether panic selling occurs. If the pullback is only mild with shrinking volume, the likelihood of subsequent recovery is higher; If there is a sharp drop and increased volume, short-term opportunities need to be treated more cautiously. Personally, position management always takes precedence over direction judgment. Even if I am optimistic about the medium to long term, I won't blindly leverage or heavily buy the dip during the downturn. Maintain a sufficient cash or stablecoin ratioThe $BTC ETF story is diverging: the SEC is on one hand continuing to solicit opinions on new types of ETFs, while official documents show some single-asset products are being liquidated due to insufficient scale. More entry points can only improve buyability, not replace sustained net inflows. The bullish logic is solid only if $BTC and $ETH prices rise accompanied by spot trading and ETF net inflows recovering; if only hype and leverage remain, the risk of a pullback after a spike increases. Next, watch for rule implementation, fund direction, and the relative strength of mainstream coins. #ThisWeekFOMCReveal, will the rate hike be implemented?$LIT Bull and Bear Probabilities
- Daily: Bull 65%, Bear 35% (Long-term uptrend)
- 4h: Bull 55%, Bear 45% (Overbought at high level, beware of pullback)
- Short-term: Bull 48%, Bear 52%, prioritize waiting for a pullback to go long; rebound resistance test short as an alternative
Two Trading Plans (Entry/Stop Loss/Take Profit + Risk-Reward Ratio)
Plan 1: Buy on pullback support (Main strategy)
Entry range: 4.38 ~ 4.42, pullback to 4h EMA30, enter long after 15-minute candle closes with a bullish reversal
Stop loss: 4.030, break below intraday low, bull trend invalidated
First take profit: 4.695; Second take profit: 5.00
Entry midpoint 4.40, stop loss range 0.37
First take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 0.79:1
Second take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 1.62:1
Plan 2: Short test under high pressure (Alternative, light position to speculate on pullback)
Entry range: 4.68 ~ 4.695, touching 24h high, enter short after 15-minute candle closes with long upper shadow and RSI turning down
Stop loss: 4.760, break above high, short logic invalid
First take profit: 4.40; Second take profit: 4.20
Entry midpoint 4.687, stop loss range 0.073
First take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.93:1
Second take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 6.67:1Yesterday's low-long strategy continued: ETH retraced to the 2,403–2,460 support zone and stabilized, entered at 2475, exited smoothly at 2518, securing 4.7k.
As long as the support level holds, it's a low-long window. Trade within the range, set stop losses properly, and let the profits run.
$BTC $ETH #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 BTW current price is 0.7581, with thin order book depth and widening bid-ask spread, which is a typical structure of strong control by major players. Without any news interference, purely looking at capital intentions, the 0.758 level is just stuck at the lower edge of the previous dense chip area, with a layer of trapped positions piled up between 0.78 and 0.80 above, and support between 0.73 and 0.74 below.
Just finished my shift, sitting in the pavilion watching the screen, the tea in my cup is still hot.
The logic is straightforward: near the current price, volume contracts and consolidates sideways; if volume breaks out above 0.775, go long targeting 0.81 with a stop loss at 0.745. If it first drops to around 0.735 and stabilizes with low volume, then go long targeting 0.77 with a stop loss at 0.715. If it breaks below 0.715, it's over—don't hold on.
The bias is bullish, but signals must be confirmed; don't randomly open positions between 0.75 and 0.77. Entry zone is 0.735 to 0.745 for long orders, take profit in batches at 0.775 and 0.805, with a unified stop loss at 0.715. Short positions are only tested near 0.805, stop loss at 0.82, target to return to 0.76.
With the current market situation, no rush.
$BTW
#霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟
@OKX星球 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL
One thing I don't like doing is judging the whole crypto market from one chart.
Bitcoin can be strong while Ethereum is quiet.
Ethereum can outperform while Bitcoin barely moves.
Solana can suddenly attract attention when traders start looking for more risk.
That's why I watch the relationship between them.
$BTC → market foundation
$ETH → ecosystem activity
$SOL → higher-beta network activity
The interesting part isn't knowing which one pumps next.
It's understanding where capital is moving when the market changes mood.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq
#TrumpAcceptsNewEthics $BTC weekend consolidation completed, waiting for FOMC direction
Over the weekend, the crypto market digested the aftereffects of last week's CPI exceeding expectations on its own. Bitcoin hovered around 77,000, Ethereum tested 2550 but never broke through, overall in a pause before macro events.
ETF fund flows show divergence: Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $100 million on September 9, with institutions reducing risk exposure before data release; Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $210 million on September 11.
BTC fluctuated narrowly around 77,000 over the weekend, previously dipping to 76,500. The 80,000 level is a psychological barrier and the point where last week's two attempts to rally failed.
Ethereum: 2550 is a hurdle that can't be bypassed, ETH is around 2510, price holding above 2500 indicates buying support. However, there is over $1.2 billion in long positions accumulated near 2405; if liquidation triggers, volatility will amplify.
Weekend calm often precedes the next wave of volatility. Before the FOMC decision, light positions and waiting are more pragmatic than guessing the direction. BTC holding 76,000 and ETH holding 2438 are the minimum conditions for short-term bulls; a true bullish signal is BTC breaking above 80,000 with volume, along with ETF fund flows returning to net inflows. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The whole market is on the offensive, and the KAITO ecosystem has already started to collapse: BILL goes to zero, rights protection heats up to platform tokens
An hour ago, BILL going to zero and rights protection flooded the screen, $KAITO is currently at 0.3043, steady half an hour after the incident. In short, users exposed locked tokens records, the locked BILL went to zero after TGE, specifically blaming KaitoAI for not releasing. I'm bearish, not catching the falling knife.
BILL is a token grown from the KaitoAI ecosystem; the rights protection attack hits the ecosystem's reputation, with platform tokens taking the brunt. Technically weak, daily RSI at 33.8, MA7 below MA30. 24h volume is only 0.189 times the 30-day average, no panic selling volume.
In contrast, the overall market is advancing, BTC 77606 stands above the 30-day moving average, but KAITO is stuck at the 30-day range level of 0.114. It barely dropped after the incident; trust loss is not yet priced in, slow decline rather than sharp drop. Tomorrow's FOMC and CPI double events, weak tokens get hit first.
Resistance above: 0.309 (24h high)
Support below: 0.298 (4h SAR), 0.292 (Bollinger lower band)
The script likely to be a slow decline first, watershed at 0.298, breaking it will accelerate. Strategy: reduce positions on rebounds to 0.309; short positions enter near 0.309, break 0.298 target 0.292, recover to 0.309 to cut losses.
I’m watching key levels closely, following every detail.
$KAITO $BTC$NES Earning this money gave me no sense of achievement at all, purely luck.
Just finished lunch and checked the market, NES returned to around 0.1345, bounced a few times but didn’t drop below, the buy orders kept supporting it. I judged at that time that if it was consolidating without breaking down, it meant it was going up, so I entered a long position and shared my position. Then it really moved.
From 0.1345 to 0.1516, +255.76%, hardly looked back all the way. Those on board must have woken up laughing, it was worth the wait.
Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking.
First handle the main position, take profit on 70% to secure gains, keep 30% with cost protection to hold on, don’t let the profit turn uncomfortable if it pulls back. Time to enjoy a good meal.
Those not on board yet, don’t rush to add, now is not the time to charge. Wait for the next shot, there are still opportunities, don’t be anxious.
$ETH $ZEC 🚨Don't just focus on interest rate hikes! The truly impactful event for the crypto world this week is being overlooked by most people
This morning's market: BTC fell below 77,000, ETH at 2,474, SOL lost the 100 mark, and the total market cap shrank by 0.8% in 24 hours.
Currently, the market's attention is fully on the Federal Reserve: the probability of a 25bp rate hike has risen to over 86%, and everyone is waiting for Thursday's policy meeting results.
But short-term rate hikes only affect the coin price for the next 3 months; the two US crypto regulatory events on Tuesday will determine the industry's direction for the next several years.
✅ Senate vote on the "CLARITY Act"
The bill aims to define whether crypto is a security or a commodity and requires 60 votes to pass. The current predicted pass rate is only 25%. Industry warnings: if it fails this time, there will be no similar legislative opportunities for the next decade.
✅ SEC crypto 24-hour trading roundtable
Top institutions like BlackRock and Nasdaq are attending to discuss extending trading hours.
The core demand for institutional entry has never been low interest rates but clear regulatory certainty.
Capital has already signaled this: from August to September, large inflows into BTC spot ETFs continued, led by BlackRock; Strategy is still adding to BTC near 80,000. Institutions are betting on crypto institutionalization.
⚠️ Short-term risks cannot be ignored:
BTC's Fibonacci key support is at 76,380; if broken, the next targets are 72,820–70,000.
💡 Summary:
Current market sentiment is neutral. Rate hikes are only short-term disturbances; regulatory legislation implementation is the long-term key for trillions in institutional capital to enter the market. A hold would still need a hawkish explanation.
With August PPI up 5.4% YoY, CPI up 0.4% MoM and long-end yields elevated, the Fed's challenge is explaining how its rate path fits the inflation data. My read: a hold paired with a credible willingness to tighten could matter more than the headline decision. Political pressure makes that communication test harder.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #OpenAICEO称2026年不会IPO #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
AI big shots call to "hit the brakes," but Trump floors the gas pedal, storage chips crash first as a salute
Over the weekend, Anthropic's CEO Amodei posted that AI is running too fast and needs to "hit the brakes," proposing a three-step speed limit plan, with Musk and Altman nodding along. Trump outright rejected it, saying "Whoever wins AI wins everything," and called those urging slowdown "negative forces." The U.S. is currently ahead of China and must not slow down.
To put it plainly: safety is an illusion; votes and the stock market are real. The White House treats AI as an economic engine and refuses to ease off the gas. But the market panicked first—on Monday Asia-Pacific open, storage chips crashed: SK Hynix dropped over 5%, Samsung fell 4%, Kioxia plunged nearly 10% at one point, and Micron's dark pool fell over 4%.
Short-term sentiment will definitely weigh on hardware and storage, since the word "slowdown" immediately triggers capital flight. But institutions also say cloud providers' capex orders are still locked in, so the crash might just be a window for portfolio reshuffling. Whether to chase or not depends on your own speed. $KORU $HYPE is still operating at a relatively high level, but recently it has followed the market correction, with the price falling back to around 78-80. Trading volume and the buyback mechanism are the core supports, and the high elasticity characteristic remains unchanged. When sentiment is good, the gains can be considerable; when sentiment is weak, the pullbacks are also obvious.
Currently, I am mainly observing and have not made significant position adjustments. This type of asset is suitable for those with clear risk control; having too heavy a position can easily affect one's mindset due to volatility. Planning your position size and response strategy in advance is more important than reacting on the fly. Market sentiment changes quickly, so staying clear-headed is more practical than frequently predicting highs and lows.
For HYPE, I pay more attention to changes in its trading volume and key support levels. If the volume shrinks during a pullback, it may indicate that selling pressure has eased; if the decline is on increased volume, more caution is needed. In any case, position management comes first. The charm of high-elasticity assets lies in their elasticity, and the risk also lies in their elasticity. Only by controlling position size can one maintain initiative amid volatility. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO #OKX星球话题来啦 📉 Dropped steadily from 1.68 down to 0.607, a decline of -64% 🚀 Now at 0.9676, up +59% from the bottom 🕯️ A nearly +19% big bullish daily candle, breaking out with volume 🔍 Filecoin's actual paid income annualized is only about $59,000, compared to an $800 million market cap, the real driver is just one: ⏰ 10/15 — PL/FF linear release completely ends ✂️ Annual new issuance cut by about 75%, from 88 million → only about 22 million FIL block rewards left This is the biggest supply-side inflection point for FIL in six years since launch. 🎯 Key price levels (Fibonacci) 1.00–1.02 ← whole number resistance + 0.382 level, current watershed 🚧 1.14 ← 0.5 level, mid-term target 1.27–1.29 ← 0.618 level + yearly high, strongest resistance zone ⚠️ The chip distribution matches perfectly: 1.00–1.30 is the dense trapped zone for the year, the hard core that hasn't moved in six years 💀 While 0.61–0.70 are all new chips with floating profits, if 1.00 can't be broken, profit-taking will be quick ⚡ 🟢 When to enter 1️⃣ Breakout entry (chasing strength) Trigger: 1-hour close above 1.02 (intraday spikes don't count) Confirmation: volume significantly increases, and pullback to 1.00–1.02 holds Stop loss: 0.9 Where is the smart money standing?
The open interest (OI) of $BTC shrank from 8.45 billion on the 8th to 7.98 billion on the 13th, a decrease of 394 million USD over five days. There was a net outflow every day, with the largest single-day outflow of 198 million on the 12th. Today it finally reversed with an inflow of 77 million, but compared to what ran off, it's just a drop in the bucket. However, the ETF side poured in 3.8 billion over three weeks; institutions are buying while retail investors are running, this divergence means either institutions are wrong later or retail investors get left behind.
$ETH, on the other hand, had a net inflow of 82 million, with 71 million and 202 million inflows on 9/11 and 9/12 respectively. Although it also saw an outflow of 96 million today, the whole week remains positive. Regarding fees, $BTC's average is 0.006%, while $ETH's is only 0.0028%, meaning $ETH longs pay half the protection fee compared to $BTC. More interestingly, on 9/10 $ETH's fee rate turned negative to -0.0023%, with shorts paying longs instead; there were more shorts than longs, yet $ETH still managed to rally back, trapping the shorts in a reversal.Imagine being able to buy shares in one of the companies building the AI models everyone is talking about.
That’s what makes the idea of an Anthropic Nasdaq IPO interesting to me.
We’ve already seen the AI boom create huge value for chipmakers, cloud providers and data-center companies. But Anthropic would represent something different direct exposure to a company actually building the AI models themselves.
Personally, I’d be curious to see how public markets would value a business like this. Would investors focus on revenue growth? Claude adoption? Enterprise customers? Computing costs? Or would the AI narrative itself be enough to support a huge valuation?
And there’s another side I’d watch closely: AI models are incredibly expensive to build and operate. Fast growth sounds great, but eventually public market investors will want to know what the path to sustainable profitability looks like.
If Anthropic eventually reaches Nasdaq, I think the IPO would be more than just another tech listing.
#AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq $BTC $LSK surged more than 20 times in a short period, then directly dropped over 80%
I checked on-chain and found that the price surge was caused by a dog whale crushing the short sellers, with the price even reaching as high as 2.4 before there was no support and it fell straight down
For these altcoins, the dog whale can directly see your liquidation price and then target and blow up your position. As long as you dare to hold a heavy position, the dog whale dares to pump and dump you. This is also why playing these small altcoins is not recommended, because the market is just you versus the dog whale, and since you can't beat the dog whale, the most likely outcome is that you get eaten upReturns vs. Drawdowns, Which Is More Resilient
$BTC dropped from 79,075 on the 8th to 77,556 today, a decline of 1.92%. In between, it fell from a swing high of 79,860 down to the key 76,000 level, with a maximum drawdown of 4.83%. Fortunately, the 76,000 level held firm after three tests; otherwise, the downside would be much less certain. $ETH rose from 2,488 to 2,511, an increase of 0.92%. It doesn't seem like much, but on 9/11 it surged from 2,437 straight up to 2,666, a daily gain of 9.4%. Although it was pushed back down, it still closed in the green.
$ETH's maximum drawdown was actually larger than $BTC's, dropping from 2,666 to 2,403, a 9.85% decline, due to a big bearish candle on 9/10 when it fell from 2,522 to 2,403. But a larger drawdown doesn't necessarily mean bigger losses—$ETH's annualized volatility is 36.4% compared to $BTC's 22.2%. $ETH naturally has a more volatile temperament, dropping sharply but rebounding quickly; the move from 2,403 back up to 2,666 took just two days. $BTC, on the other hand, dragged out its decline over five days without bouncing back, and that's truly painful.On-chain data fluctuations are more honest than news; in the past two hours, three silent whale addresses transferred about 4,600 BTC to derivatives platforms, but no long positions were triggered, and the staking ratio actually increased.
The order book shows dense limit sell orders above 78,000 and rapidly thinning buy orders below 77,500. The naked candlestick has four consecutive four-hour upper shadows, with rebound highs dropping from 78,600 to 77,950, indicating a lower high structure.
The current price of 77,559 is stuck at the lower edge of the chip vacuum zone; once a volume break below occurs, the spike won't be light. I just parked my car next to the rider station; payment and order reminders vibrated simultaneously, making my eyelids twitch, but this does not change the market judgment.
For operations, short on rebounds, entry range 77,750 to 78,200, stop loss at 78,700, first take profit at 76,100, and if broken, target around 74,800. Position control at 30%, don't follow me trying to go all-in to recover.
If the market does not rebound and directly breaks below 77,500, stay out and wait for a pullback before entering.
$BTC
#美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力
@OKX星球 CME的数据显示，加息概率已高达86.2%。高盛也一改此前“按兵不动”的立场，转而预计加息；20位分析师中有16位押注9月将加息。市场似乎已达成共识，分歧荡然无存。$BTC $ETH $ZEC 回顾1988年，美联储在连续加息16次之后，市场迎来了什么？花旗最新报告指出，当前的宏观环境与1988-1989年有着“明显上升”的相似度。当年，美联储从1988年3月起连续加息16次，将利率从6.75%推升至9.8125%。随后，经济放缓促使政策转向，降息周期开启，资产价格随之迎来新一轮上涨。这正是被许多人忽略的关键：紧缩的极致，往往是宽松的前夜。 花旗报告中还有一个值得关注的细节：尽管市场担忧加剧，其宏观模型仍维持在“正常”区间，并未滑向“金融条件收紧”。同时，模型将股票超配比例从2.8%上调至4.0%。通俗来说，花旗正在加息的恐慌中，悄然加仓风险资产。 当前，BTC价格在7.7万美元左右，距离128,198美元的历史高点已回撤近40%。市值约为1.3万亿美元，资金费率偏负，看跌情绪正在蔓延。这意味着，市场已对“加息周期延长”进行了充分定价。 既然所有人都已预期加息，那么真正的催化剂会是什BTC vs ETH Money-Making Ability Comparison, PK Day | Verdict $ETH
First, the verdict
This round, $ETH once again rubbed $BTC into the ground, and did so mercilessly. 7-day returns: $ETH +0.92% vs $BTC -1.92%, one positive and one negative, with a gap of nearly 3 points. Sharpe ratio: $ETH 2.03 vs $BTC -2.96. $BTC is seriously negative in both returns and Sharpe ratio, losing money and feeling bad. On the holdings side, $ETH net inflow is 82 million, $BTC net outflow is 394 million; it's clear who the capital votes for with their feet. In this round of PK, $ETH's win is unquestionable. $BTC these seven days is like a "possum playing dead," shrinking its neck pretending nothing's wrong, but money keeps leaking from its pocket.
Sharpe speaks: who has the edge after risk adjustment
$ETH Sharpe 2.03, positive, returns beat volatility, earning a reward for each unit of risk taken. $BTC Sharpe -2.96, outright negative, losing money for every unit of risk taken. To put it simply: $ETH this week is like a kid who falls but can get back up, while $BTC is like a "possum playing dead" lying on the ground pretending all is fine but money keeps leaking from its pocket. $BTC volatility at 22.2% is much lower than $ETH's 36.4%, but lower volatility doesn't mean a better experience—steadily falling is also a kind of steady pain. Ethereum ($ETH) is undergoing a structural recovery from a deep correction. The price fluctuates between around $2,470-$2,520, rebounding over 55%-60% from the June low (around $1,600), with Q3 gains close to 58%-60.6%, potentially becoming the second-strongest Q3 performance in history (second only to 2025). This rebound is not purely sentiment-driven but the resonance of institutional funds, on-chain fundamentals, and protocol upgrade expectations. The analysis follows from three dimensions: price and capital, technical roadmap, ecosystem, and risk. 1. Price and Capital: ETFs continue to attract funds, key resistance at $2,550 The most direct recent catalyst comes from the US spot Ethereum ETF. On September 11, there was a single-day net inflow of about $216.4 million (BlackRock ETHA contributed about $148.8 million), with a weekly cumulative outflow of about $196 million, while most Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows during the same period. Overall inflows in August were about $1.75 billion, marking the strongest monthly performance since August 2025. Coinbase $COIN premium rebounded from deep negative territory, indicating that U.S. buyers are more willing to buy amid the pullback. Institutional positions are also accumulating: BlackRock continues to buy, and entities like $BMNR BitMine Immersion hold nearly 5% of circulating supply and continue to stake. Technically, on September 11, boosted by the U.S. core CPI dropping to a more than five-year low, ETH briefly broke through $2,600 (a seven-month high).There is a big market divergence; some are panicking, while others are looking for projects with real fundamentals. $JTO is worth a closer look recently.
Jito is the largest liquid staking protocol on Solana, with a TVL of about $1 billion. 95% of Solana validators use it, and MEV annual fees reach $78 million. The protocol's revenue is not just a promise; it is genuinely earning.
More importantly, it has a revenue flywheel: 80% of the fees from the new trading platform JTX flow into the DAO. The DAO uses 100% of its income to buy back JTO on the open market and permanently burn it, with a commitment at least until Q4 2027, verifiable on-chain. This is not just rhetoric; real money is used to buy back and burn tokens.
Additionally, the BAM pre-confirmation service just launched on September 9, covering over 34% of Solana's staking volume. 35% of its revenue goes directly into the DAO treasury, starting to be accounted for in October. This adds another revenue stream.
Since August 19, TVL has increased by more than $240 million, and protocol fees have hit a new high since May.
This is not a recommendation, but projects with real revenue, buyback and burn mechanisms, and new product launches are worth studying when prices dip. Make your own judgment and manage your position carefully.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
(The above content does not constitute investment advice)Brothers, this time I'm really prepared to go all in with $OKB.
I'm not opening 10x or 20x leverage to gamble; I've already directly bought OKB spot.
Next, I plan to dollar-cost average, buy slowly, and hold long-term.
My goal is simple: 1000 USD.
Many might think I'm dreaming, but I actually find OKB quite interesting right now.
Because its recent rise isn't crazy, and it doesn't fall easily either; the candlestick chart keeps its own rhythm.
This kind of coin is easiest to overlook, but if you look closely, the logic behind OKB is actually growing.
The X Layer ecosystem continues to develop, OKX keeps investing resources into the ecosystem, even putting up 5 million USD to promote the Meme sector.
Look at BNB, once a platform coin truly builds its ecosystem, the valuation potential is insanely huge, and someone has already demonstrated that to us.
So I'm not too worried about how much OKB will rise in the short term.
What I want to know more is: in this bull market, how far can OKB really go?
500 USD, I'm satisfied, a comfortable life.
1000 USD, I'll shout out: Brothers, take off!
2000 USD? Then it's no longer about comfort or middle class.
By then, I might already be researching how to retire 😂
Of course, goals are goals, reality is reality.
I choose spot dollar-cost averaging because I don't want to rely on an all-in bet to decide win or lose.
Long-term optimistic, hold slowly, let's see if this time $OKB can really give me a surprise. $LAB continues to plummet, with an intraday drop of -23.50%, currently priced at 0.05319, hitting a low of 0.05200.
The price is below all moving averages, with MA5/MA10/MA20 all pressing down, indicating a clear bearish trend; currently, it is only briefly consolidating near the new low, representing a slight pause after the sharp drop, not a true bottom. The historical long-term decline is close to 99.61%, indicating extremely high risk.
✅ Bullish scenario (rebound considered only as a correction)
The first short-term resistance is at 0.0570-0.0575 (MA10). Only a volume-backed break above 0.06235 (MA20) could potentially end the short-term downtrend;
Such rebounds after a steep drop are mostly technical pullbacks and should not be mistaken for a reversal.
❌ Bearish scenario
If the 0.05200 low is broken, support fails, and a new round of decline will begin. There is no clear technical support below, and the downside space is unpredictable.
Practical approach
1. Conservative approach: Strongly advise against bottom fishing; prioritize waiting and watching.
After two consecutive days of sharp decline, this is a capital flight scenario. The probability of losses from "catching a falling knife" is very high. Wait for several consecutive hourly candles to stabilize with volume before considering entry.
2. Extremely light position for rebound speculation (very high risk)
If insisting on going long: use 0.0520 as the stop-loss baseline. Enter a small position on a pullback to 0.0523-0.0528 with a stop-loss below 0.0517. Exit near 0.057. Absolutely no long-term holding.$LAB Bull and Bear Probability
- Daily level: Bull 30%, Bear 70%, long-term downtrend
- 4h short term: Bull 42%, Bear 58%, deeply oversold, short-term rebound trading opportunity, rebound is primarily considered a shorting opportunity
Two trading plans (Entry/Stop Loss/Take Profit + Risk-Reward Ratio)
Plan 1: Short-term rebound long trade (only oversold recovery, light position)
Entry range: 0.0520~0.0530, hold the 24h low, wait for a 15-minute bullish close to stabilize before going long
Stop loss: 0.0490, break below low, continue to decline
First take profit: 0.062 (1H EMA30); Second take profit: 0.07255 (intraday previous high)
Entry midpoint 0.0525, stop loss range 0.0035
First take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.71:1
Second take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 5.87:1
Plan 2: Rebound resistance trend-following short (main strategy)
Entry range: 0.061~0.063, rebound touches 4H EMA30, 15-minute long upper shadow appears, RSI turns down, then open short
Stop loss: 0.0735, break above intraday high, bear logic invalid
First take profit: 0.052; Second take profit: 0.03651
Entry midpoint 0.062, stop loss range 0.0115
First take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 0.87:1
Second take profit risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.22:1$ETH What's going on next door?
$ETH today at $2,511, a slight drop of 0.28% in 24 hours. Over the past seven days, it rose from 2483 to 2511, up 1.1%, outperforming $BTC. On 9/11, it surged to 2666 but was pushed back to 2515, indicating significant resistance above. OI net inflow this week is 82 million, capital is flowing into $ETH, but the fee rate is only 0.0028%, even lower than $BTC, showing cautious sentiment. The 2400 to 2430 range has been tested three times with buyers stepping in, so the bottom is relatively solid. In the short term, $ETH is fluctuating between 2460 and 2530 with no clear direction, leaning towards light long positions with a stop loss below 2455 and a target of 2560, but the certainty is not as high as with $BTC.$LIT already topped out — down roughly 15-20% from its all-time high after a wild 115% monthly run. Open interest has swelled past $550M, and positioning now leans short. That's a real, fundamentals-backed rally cooling off, not necessarily a setup engineered to trap buyers. Could go either way from here — treat any manipulation theory as a guess, not a fact.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics PAIR whale liquidation, on the contrary, I started to pay attention.
The biggest fear for small-cap coins is not whales selling, but no one stepping in after whales sell.
If this time it’s just early-stage holders taking profits and exiting, and after the selling pressure is released the price can stabilize, while volume and new capital absorption continue, then this drop might actually be a redistribution of chips.
The real bargain-hunting signal is not "a big drop," but:
Whales finish selling → price stops falling → someone starts buying.
PAIR, keep observing.$BTC I'm bullish on this side. A 25 basis point rate hike is almost certain, but it's no longer news; the price has long since factored it in.
FedWatch shows an 86% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Before the speech by Waller on August 28, the market still saw it as a 50-50 chance. During the same period, $BTC moved from 77,846 to 77,600, basically unchanged.
The key to not falling along with the market is the dollar. Rate hikes hurt coin prices through a strong dollar, but the dollar index dropped from 99.70 to 99.35, so this transmission hasn't started. The reason is that this rate hike is not due to an overheated economy but forced by oil prices: Brent rose from $89 to $107. The market sees this as a passive response to inflation, not the start of a tightening cycle.
Contract positions fell from $8.48 billion to $8.06 billion in one week; the drop from 81,270 to 76,569 was an early digestion.
Prediction: Within 48 hours after the decision, $BTC will hold 76,500 and retest 80,000.
Bearish conditions: Waller hints at another hike in October, or the 10-year US Treasury yield closes above 5% (currently 4.97%).Money's direction is more reliable than words
The seven-day average funding rate is 0.006%, with longs paying shorts so little every 8 hours that it can be ignored; the sentiment is far from overheated. On the 9th, it was 0.0062%, on the 10th, 0.0062%, and on the 11th it dropped to 0.0042%, synchronizing with the price crash to 76000, scaring longs away. On the 12th, it was 0.0052%, on the 13th, 0.0055%, slowly climbing back, and today it is 0.0072%, returning to the level at the start of the week. Confidence is recovering but far from overheated.
The story on the open interest side is even more interesting. OI shrank from 8.45 billion on the 8th to 7.98 billion on the 13th, a net outflow of 394 million USD over five days, with many running away. But today it finally turned positive, with a net inflow of 77 million, and OI returned to 8.05 billion. This signal is more important than the funding rate—smart money has quietly started accumulating around 76000. The ETF side is also doing well; over the past three weeks, there has been a cumulative inflow of 3.8 billion USD, with BlackRock IBIT alone contributing 690 million. Institutional money is still pouring into $BTC, while retail investors are running away. This kind of divergence usually ends with retail investors admitting their mistake. This 1823 spike of SNDK plunged straight down after the peak, and the weekend saw another drop.
On the 8th, it touched 1823. On the 9th, the high was 1806; on the 10th, it dropped to 1674; on the 11th, the high was 1735 but didn't break through, the low was 1620, closing at 1633. On the 13th, the low was 1556, closing at 1565. Today it opened at 1565, the high was 1575, the low 1547, and the current price is about 1568. Volume is still there.
The range 1575-1735 above has become immediate resistance. If it breaks below 1547, it’s likely to see even lower levels first.
In the short term, watch if 1568 can hold. If it can’t hold, treat it as a high-level consolidation and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 1547 can support; if it can’t, consider reducing your position. $SNDK What does the K-line say?
$BTC The movement over these seven days looks like a person running on a treadmill for an hour, exhausted but still in the same place. On the 8th, it opened at 79075, touched 79476 but was pushed back, closing at 78425. On the 9th, it surged to 79737, but again dropped right after, closing at 78264. On the 10th, a bearish candle slammed down to 76402, closing at 76535, down 2.2%, with bulls collectively calming down. The 11th was the most intense, dipping to the key 76000 level, then pulling back to 77191 the same day, with a nearly 5% swing. This spike down and bounce back effectively sealed the 76000 support. The following three days hovered between 76800 and 77200, with volume shrinking day by day: 3.1 billion on the 12th, 5.2 billion on the 13th, down two-thirds from the massive 16 billion on the 11th, indicating selling momentum has dried up.
Today’s bullish candle rose from 76805 to 77556, at least reclaiming above 77500. The MA3 is flattening around 77201, MA5 is still pressing at 77287; to confirm a rebound, it must first hold above MA5, then target the mid-zone around 78500. The swing high at 79860 is the ceiling; without breaking that, it’s only a rebound, not a reversal. But in the short term, buying near the lower boundary of 76000 to 79860 has a higher success rate than the risk/reward ratio.The Federal Reserve meeting on September 16 is basically set for a rate hike, but the story is not just about "whether to raise or not."
CME data shows the market pricing in an 86.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. Goldman Sachs previously insisted on "no change," but has now changed its stance, expecting a 25 basis point hike in September. UBS is even more aggressive, directly saying there will be one hike each in September and December, pushing rates to 4.00%-4.25%.
However, the White House does not want the Fed to take action. Trump said the US should have the lowest interest rates globally, and economic advisor Hassett also came out saying "there is no reason to raise rates now." But Hassett added: no matter what Powell decides, the White House will 100% respect it.
This is the market's contradiction. Inflation data indeed provides a reason for a rate hike—CPI month-over-month at 0.4%, core CPI month-over-month at 0.3%, both higher than expected. But long-term US Treasury yields have already surged to 5.28%, with the 30-year real rate close to 3%, hitting record highs since data began.
As for Bitcoin $BTC, $76,380 is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which has been repeatedly tested recently. If the 25 basis point hike meets expectations, the market focus will shift to Powell's speech and the dot plot—whether it’s "one hike then stop," or "more to come." In the former case, BTC might trade as if the bad news is fully priced in; in the latter, whether $76,380 support holds is uncertain. Let's wait until the early hours of the 17th. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ 📌The ETH short position won a bit over the weekend, but on Monday it was pulled back from 2465, and the volume still hasn't caught up.
Yesterday it opened at 2535, peaked at 2537, dropped to 2462, and closed at 2491. Today it opened at 2491, peaked at 2520, dropped to 2465, and the current price is about 2514. Volume is 125 million, which is far from Friday's 564 million.
The resistance above is still between 2520–2537, with heavier resistance at 2583 and 2667. On the downside, watch 2465 first, and if it breaks, 2433 is likely.
In the short term, see if 2514 can hold. If it can't hold, don't chase the current price. For those already holding, watch if 2465 support holds; if not, reduce some positions and wait for volume to return during the European and American sessions before seeing if it can challenge 2535 again. $ETH