Orbit Post Sitemap
#Strategy repurchases approximately $139 million STRC
Strategy repurchases approximately $139 million STRC, BTC slightly down 0.19%. This is another "move" by MicroStrategy (now Strategy) in its crypto treasury strategy.
Previously, Strategy was known for "buying, buying, buying," aggressively accumulating Bitcoin. Now it has taken out $139 million to repurchase preferred shares STRC. What does this indicate? It shows the company is optimizing its capital structure, balancing equity dilution and debt pressure. STRC fell 0.02%, with a muted market reaction.
For investors, the treasury model is shifting from "who holds more coins" to "who can better enhance per-share asset value." Financing costs, equity dilution, pledge yields, cash reserves—companies that can't figure out this equation will be eliminated in the next bear market. Strategy's move is preparation for long-term survival. Whether to buy coins or repurchase shares, there is no standard answer, only survival of the fittest.September 16
Gold Morning
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
1. Federal Reserve Policy
The market has already highly priced in a 25bp rate hike in September, with the rate hike expectation close to 90%. The current focus is no longer on "whether to hike or not," but on the dot plot and the tone of Wash's speech. Key attention is on 2 AM tonight.
If the rate hike occurs but the speech is dovish, implying the rate hike cycle is nearing its end, it is likely to see a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario, and gold prices will rebound;
If the rate hike occurs with a statement that tightening will continue, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will continue to rise, and gold prices will face further downward pressure.
2. Middle East Geopolitics
Conflicts remain uncertain, and the shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz has not been resolved. However, geopolitical tensions pushing up oil prices will raise inflation concerns, which in turn strengthen the Federal Reserve's rationale for maintaining high interest rates. Safe-haven benefits are often offset by rate-related negatives; only a major escalation in the situation will allow safe-haven demand to dominate the market.
Technical Analysis
Daily chart: Closed lower and pulled back, gold prices broke below multiple short-term moving averages, with moving averages turning downward forming resistance above; RSI is near the oversold zone, showing some recovery momentum but no bottom-reversal candlestick signals have appeared, so the bottom cannot be subjectively judged.
Strategy: Short at 4310-4330, stop loss at 4350, targets at 4270-4250-4230
Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, please trade cautiously
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $XAU Let's take a look at the Ripple part.
The current price is about 1.30.
Yesterday's data showed a sharper drop, deeper than other coins, but still within the range.
It hasn't hit the long position stop loss at 1.2, and is still farther from the short position at 1.5.
It's not an independent bearish reversal, still following the overall market.
The long position stop loss remains at 1.2.
Cut losses if it breaks.
As long as it hasn't touched 1.2, you can open long positions at your entry points, with stop loss set in advance.
Don't chase the dip just because it dropped 8% without reaching your entry zone.
For those who already have positions, take profit depends on personal style; discuss when the target is reached.
Short positions can be discussed again around 1.5.
Stop loss at 1.7.
Now moving downward, put short positions aside for now.
Set aside strength and weakness first.
If stop loss isn't hit, you can go long; entry points remain the same.Just hit the trending list and immediately dropped over 10%: Save the defensive market script for RAY
Wow, $RAY just hit CoinGecko trending and took a hit—24h -11.393%, current price 1.2342. I don't catch falling knives; I only reduce positions on rebounds.
Trending is not a buy signal—this token rose +101.14% in 30 days but fell from 1.6682 to 1.2342 in four days.
The bigger picture is colder—$BTC at 75703.4 (24h -3.181%), the whole market has 55 down and 11 up, with a long-short ratio of 2.65, peaking at the 2.2 warning line.
It itself has no volume—24h trading volume 5.916 million USDT, volume ratio 0.88, pure volume contraction with a slow decline.
Resistance above: 1.2539 (first resistance) → 1.3414 → 1.4136 (24h high)
Support below: 1.1936 (24h low) → 1.1905 → 1.1695 (strong support)
Watershed level: 1.1936. Hold to grind the bottom; break below targets 1.1695.
Conclusion: Most likely weak oscillation above 1.1936 rather than a V-shaped rebound—reduce positions at 1.2539 on rebound, clear positions if it breaks 1.1936, and only consider recovery after reclaiming 1.2539.
Trending gives you traffic, I give you price levels, stay tuned and don't get lost.
$RAY $BTCIn one hour, $ETH long positions worth 74.98 million were liquidated
The bill hasn't been voted on yet, but the market moved first.
Where did this money come from:
Long positions are bought on margin; when the price drops, the system sells them off for the holders.
The sell orders push the price down further, causing the next batch of traders to be sold out.
How is this number calculated:
74.98 million is the total amount of long positions forcibly closed in this hour.
No one is actively dumping the market; it's the leverage clearing itself.
The back-and-forth market action looks like someone is targeting you.
In reality, it's just leverage on both sides being swept alternately.
The real direction will only be confirmed after the bill and interest rate decision results are finalized.
Before that, whoever adds leverage first gets liquidated first.
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $ETH 90% chance of rate hike, why are crypto prices rising against the trend?
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 90%, with macro pressure looming. However, $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC have not fallen accordingly; instead, they have slightly increased. The key is not the news itself but the contract chips: bearish expectations are too unanimous, short positions have clustered early, and the main players take the opportunity to push prices up, triggering stop-losses and liquidations. Short covering then becomes the driving force for the rise. Before the decision is announced, a common pattern is to first create a "bad news but no drop" bull trap, waiting for long positions to enter and shorts to clear, then reversing to dump the market.
Key levels
✅$BTC: resistance 81000‑82152; support 75000, break to watch 73900
✅$ETH: resistance 2600‑2660; support 2502, break to watch 2480
✅$ZEC: resistance 1092‑1198, extreme 1320; support 1089‑1102
Conclusion: Before the decision, longs and shorts sweep losses back and forth; a spike may not be a true breakout. Do not blindly chase longs; wait for signal confirmation before acting. $BTC $DOGE: Short Selling
Strategy:
• Enter short positions in batches when the price rebounds to the 0.0807-0.0816 range (resistance at MA10 and MA20).
• Set stop-loss above 0.0830; exit if there is a volume breakout.
• Target the previous low at 0.07835; if broken effectively, look down to 0.076.
Core Basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment. On the 1-hour chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are diverging downward, with price continuously suppressed below MA20 (0.08164), showing very weak rebounds.
2. Poor volume-price coordination. The decline is accompanied by significant volume increase, while the current weak rebound volume at the bottom has sharply shrunk, indicating a lack of buying power and only a technical correction after overselling.
3. Clear pattern breakdown. From the high of 0.08612, the price has steadily declined and accelerated down to 0.07835, with the overall downtrend unchanged, making trend-following short positions more likely to succeed.
#AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 $CNPY was careless, didn't expect it to just poke two needles, all the long positions above were taken out, most of them should be stop-loss orders.I read Brian Armstrong's post twice, not because the content is deep, but because this guy really knows how to pick the right moment to speak.
The bill didn't pass, his first sentence was "disappointed," and the second sentence turned to "don't wait for Congress, the SEC and CFTC can handle it themselves." To translate: the front door is blocked, so take the side door; anyway, someone has to set the rules.
What I admire most is the latter part. CLARITY made concessions, and he said "maybe this is better." If someone else said this, it would sound like giving up, but coming from him, it sounds like he already found a way out in advance.
Outsiders might think this is surrender. I think this is the tactic of a veteran, not stubbornly fighting a stuck process.
As for me? I haven't even figured out the proposal process, and they're already arranging the next step. Just watching the show first.
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解 $HYPE #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$USELESS current price is 0.21367, up 5.93% in 24 hours, net inflow of 24.33 million, trading volume of 55.52 million. The net inflow as a proportion of trading volume is indeed not low, indicating there is capital support, not just a simple pump.
However, for these small-cap meme coins, even if the capital inflow data looks good, be cautious — the market cap is thin, a few large orders can make the indicators look good, which could also be a prelude to a pump-and-dump. Whether 0.2050 holds depends on whether buyers really step in on the pullback, not just order cancellations.
Enter on a pullback to 0.2050, stop loss at 0.1910, targets at 0.2350 and 0.2500, the risk-reward ratio is acceptable. The problem is the FOMC tomorrow; when macro conditions change, these small coins fall faster than anyone else, and the stop loss might get triggered by a spike before recovering.
Before the rate decision, don't hold heavy positions in such high-volatility coins. If you want to trade, keep a small position, use strict stop losses, and don't treat your trading plan as faith. If 0.2050 can hold and capital continues to flow in, consider adding; otherwise, better to miss out.Waterfall Baptism! Retail investors are even more stubborn than Bitcoin, while the main players watch from the sidelines?
1. Market Situation: Breakdown and Washout, Bullish Stampede
① BTC and ETH both suffer waterfall-like crashes, with candlesticks directly breaking key supports, showing a very ugly trend.
② Active buy and sell volumes explode with massive sell orders during the crash, then quickly shrink, indicating panic selling flooded out and buyers completely backed off, no one dares to take over.
2. Core Risk: Retail Investors Extremely Crowded, ETH is the Hardest Hit
① During the crash, the long-short ratio rises instead of falling: BTC surged from 1.18 to 2.04, ETH even crazily jumped from 0.98 to 2.31!
② Retail investors are frantically bottom-fishing, especially ETH, with bullish positions extremely crowded. If the main players want to push prices up, they must first retest the bottom to wash out these floating positions—don’t be cannon fodder!
3. Indicators and Sentiment: Oversold but Not Blindly Optimistic
① The 4-hour J value drops to single digits, extremely oversold, with a technical rebound possible at any time in the short term.
② But the funding rate stubbornly clings to the zero line, main players have not stepped in to support the market, relying purely on retail investors fighting among themselves; a rebound without volume is very likely to fail again.
Core Summary: Don’t gamble your flesh and blood against the main players’ guns! Control your hands, save your bullets, and wait until these crazily bottom-fishing bulls are completely cleared out—only then will the market truly turn around!
$BTC $ETH $SOL: Short Position
Strategy:
• Enter short positions in batches when the price rebounds to the 97.9-99.2 range (resistance at MA10 and MA20).
• Set stop-loss above 100; exit if there is a volume breakout.
• Target the previous low at 95.66; if broken effectively, look down to 93.
Core Basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment. On the 1-hour chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are diverging downward, with price continuously suppressed below 99.24, showing very weak rebounds.
2. Clear pattern breakdown. From the high of 104.78, the price has steadily declined, breaking below the key psychological level of 100, with a low of 95.66, indicating a thoroughly deteriorated overall trend.
3. Poor volume-price coordination. The decline was accompanied by significant volume increase, while the current weak rebound at the bottom shows sharply reduced volume, indicating a lack of buying power. This is merely a technical correction after overselling, combined with macroeconomic bearish factors triggering market panic, making trend-following shorting more likely to succeed.
#10年期美债收益率突破5% The most interesting thing about this market isn't $ETH dropping to 2400, but that the crypto bill's negative news and technical factors collided at the same time.
On September 15, the U.S. Senate voted 49 in favor and 50 against, failing to advance the CLARITY Act. The market's anticipated regulatory framework for crypto market structure got stuck. After this news, $BTC and the crypto market both showed clear pressure.
If I were trading ETH now, I wouldn't just go long near 2400 because it "dropped a lot." First, I’d watch if the 2356-2416 range can be reclaimed; only when it truly stands back above 2490 would I reconsider going long.
The failure of this bill gives me a very clear feeling: the market isn't short on stories, it's short on fulfillment.
Many like to bet on good news in advance, but I now prefer to wait for the market to tell me the answer.
After all, after trading for a long time, I realize the most costly mistake isn't missing out, but stubbornly catching a falling knife just to prove you were right. Dear members, at 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will release the September FOMC rate decision and SEP economic forecast summary. At 2:30 AM, Fed Chair Kevin Walsh will hold a press conference. As the highest-weighted monetary policy implementation window in Q3, this meeting is by no means a binary judgment of "rate hike versus no hike." The core pricing contradiction is that the market has fully priced in the 25 basis point rate hike expectation. What truly determines the medium-term trend is the confirmation of the end of the rate hike cycle, the duration of high interest rates, and the revision of the interest rate path for 2026-2027. For contract trading, the core of this event is "management expectation gap," not prediction results. We use an institutionalized scenario simulation framework to present a complete trade execution and risk control plan. 1. Current Market Pricing Benchmark and Expectations Gap As of the meeting, CME FedWatch tools showed that about 87% of the market priced in a 25bp hike to 4.00% in September, with a 13% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 50bp hike not priced in at all. This means that a 25bp rate hike is already a benchmark scenario and will not generate a trending incremental shock after implementation; The real exceeding variables are concentrated in three points: first, the up/down in the SEP dot plot of the 2026 end-of-2026 interest rate center; second, Walsh's statement boundary on whether further rate hikes will continue; third, the adjustment of policy weights on inflation and employment data. It is especially important to note that the new chairman, Walsh, is clearly labeled as an "inflation fighter," with a naturally hawkish policy stance, and the market has taken a hawkish stance in his speechLet's take a look at Dogecoin.
The current price is about 0.081.
Yesterday's data went down, already very close to the long position stop loss at 0.08.
Still at the edge of the range, but the space is much narrower than other coins.
Set the long position stop loss firmly at 0.08.
Cut losses if it breaks, don't hold on.
As long as it hasn't touched 0.08, you can open a long position at your entry point, with stop loss set.
But this price is already close to the line, think carefully before entering: the stop loss can be hit quickly.
If you don't have your own entry point, don't randomly buy just because it's cheap.
Take profit depends on the individual.
Short positions still start at 0.09, add at 0.10.
Stop loss at 0.11.
Current price is on the lower side, not the time to enter short positions.
Dogecoin and the overall market.
The most important thing now is the stop loss line, first see if it holds.$OKB: Short.
Strategy:
• Enter short positions in batches when it rebounds to the 110.5-111.3 range (resistance at MA10 and MA20).
• Set stop loss above 112; exit if there is a volume breakout.
• Target the previous low at 108.4; if broken effectively, look down to 105.
Core basis:
1. Pattern breakdown: On the 1-hour chart, a cliff-like drop from 114.69 to 108.4 with heavy trapped positions in a large bearish candle; the current slight rebound is a very weak correction.
2. Moving average resistance: MA5, MA10, and MA20 diverge downward forming a bearish alignment; price is constrained below 111.32 with weak rebound unable to break through.
3. Volume divergence: Significant volume increase during the decline, but volume shrinks sharply during the rebound phase, indicating lack of buying power; combined with macro negative factors causing market panic, shorting with the trend has a higher success rate.
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解 2,550 failed to break through three times, now it's 2,400's turn to take a hit
Three attempts to push past 2,550 were all pressed back, $ETH is now trembling above 2,400.
Current position: 2,400 is the daily life-or-death line; breaking below it will directly target 2,387. Below that, 2,405 still holds $1.21 billion in long liquidations, once broken it will trigger a chain reaction.
To follow or not: 86% of people bet on a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16, the real suspense lies in Powell's speech. RSI shows bearish divergence, price has already lost the 9-day and 21-day moving averages.
Past three attempts failed, now it can't even hold the moving averages; the forecast is to first watch 2,350-2,360, and if broken, look for 2,300.
To be clear, I won't catch this position; I've had enough of holding positions to the point of ruin once.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $ETH The coins most likely to pump today, I'll be watching these three closely.
First: PONS$PONS
PONS has shown much greater volatility than typical altcoins in the past couple of days.
It previously corrected down from a high, and now the market is refocusing on its capital flow. Also, PONS just launched on OKX, and the price has already surged near 0.66. New liquidity and sentiment are rapidly shifting. If it can hold steady around 0.66 and volume continues to expand, short-term funds may keep chasing. But if volume increases without price movement, be cautious of profit-taking dumping the price.
Second: VET
VET is seeing a real event materialize today.
The VeChain Interstellar hard fork activates today at block height 25,902,540. The upgrade involves EVM capabilities and multiple Ethereum improvements, without changing VET supply.
There was already a round of speculation before; if the positive news triggers volume-driven price surges today, it means funds haven't exited yet.
Third: ARB$ARB
ARB has about 92.65 million tokens unlocking today. The market usually treats this as selling pressure initially, but if after unlocking the price doesn't drop further and instead rallies with volume, it often signals a rebound after negative news.
This kind of movement tends to force early short sellers to cover their positions.
So today I'll be watching:
PONS's performance after listing, VET's hard fork, and ARB's post-unlock support. Brothers, today the whole day was basically driven by news, with the market pricing in the FOMC in advance.
The market was weak in the morning session, then $BTC and $ETH continued to dip. Behind this is not just the interest rate hike expectations, but also the surge in oil prices, the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 5%, and the weakness in US stocks. Risk assets overall are under pressure.
Additionally, the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act did not advance today, which dealt another blow to crypto sentiment. BTC once dropped to around 75,500, and ETH's decline was even more pronounced.
But I think there is an important detail now: the 25bp rate hike expectation has already been fully priced in by the market. The mainstream forecast is currently around 84%–94%, so today's decline can also be understood as an early digestion of the bad news.
Therefore, from now until the FOMC tonight, I lean more towards weak consolidation and repeated shakeouts, with the possibility of a repair rally. What truly determines the next direction for BTC and ETH is not simply "whether to hike rates or not," but how hawkish Powell will be after the hike and whether there are expectations for further hikes.
I actually feel uncomfortable chasing shorts now. It's more important to wait for the news to come out and see how the market moves than to bet on the direction prematurely.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 #10年期美债收益率突破5% $BTC $ETH $SOL
Someone really turned shorting into performance art. Shorting BTC, ETH, and SOL together, with a total position close to $1.8 billion, currently at an unrealized loss of about $39.67 million, yet still no liquidation.
BTC: Short 1,891.4 coins, opened at 72,307, valued at about $1.48 billion, unrealized loss about $11.73 million.
ETH: Short 103,000 coins, opened at 2,285.78, valued at about $258 million, unrealized loss about $22.36 million.
SOL: Short 736,000 coins, opened at 94.02, valued at about $74.79 million, unrealized loss about $5.59 million.
Even more intense is the leverage: BTC and ETH are both fully shorted at 5x leverage, SOL is fully shorted at 10x leverage. Liquidation prices are 133,800, 3,509, and 240.29 respectively. In the short term, there is still some distance, but high leverage is most vulnerable to sudden spikes and flash crashes.
He is betting on the rebound ending and macro conditions weakening; the market might also first trigger a short squeeze to test his resolve. Whether this is a whale setting a trap early or the market preparing to close in, we will soon find out.
With a position like this, would you dare to follow? After holding a position for 26 days and liquidating with a loss of 296U, I reviewed 5 hard-earned iron rules.
I suffered for three whole days, frequently checking the forced liquidation records!
Today, I tore open the wound and summarized 5 iron rules bought with real money. If you currently have open positions, read this before deciding whether to hold on:
Iron Rule 1: Never try to prove you are smarter than the market.
I opened a short at 1892, clearly saw bullish signals, but insisted on going "against the grain." The market doesn’t target you; it just eliminates those who refuse to admit mistakes.
Iron Rule 2: Stop loss is the price of admitting failure; holding on is a ticket to self-destruction.
From a floating loss of over 200U to a floating profit of 109U, I experienced countless illusions of "almost breaking even," only to be pierced by a single CPI needle.
Iron Rule 3: "Breaking even" is the most toxic obsession in this world.
We hold positions not to make money, but just to "not lose." This loss aversion will turn a 200U loss into losing all your principal.
Iron Rule 4: Position size reflects mindset; getting rich quick is an illusion; survival is the core.
I used to hold heavy positions with 10x leverage stubbornly; now I only use a few units to test the waters.
Iron Rule 5: Don’t gamble with money you can’t afford to lose on markets you don’t understand.
After liquidation, I restarted with only 25U left. That feeling of crawling out of the ruins is something I never want to experience again in this life.
I posted these 5 iron rules on the community; please supervise me. Also, to those holding positions now: don’t wait for the forced liquidation record to pop up before regretting not cutting losses earlier.After a few days of gains, you feel like a bull market has arrived; after a few days of decline, you think the cycle is over—these are all led by candlestick charts. What truly deserves attention are three things: whether capital continues to flow in, whether the on-chain ecosystem is growing steadily, and whether the project has real demand. BTC's logic is increasingly approaching digital assets and scarce value storage; ETH's core lies in settlement layers, DeFi, stablecoins, and ecosystem infrastructure; Public chains like SUI and SOL compete for applications and users; Platform assets like OKB need to observe platform ecosystems, user growth, and tokens' actual value capture capabilities. Don't change your logic just because a coin rose 20% today, nor dismiss a long-term trend just because the market pulls back. For ordinary investors, the most important thing is not to predict every rise, but to control positions, reduce leverage, keep enough cash, and truly understand what they are buying. The market will never reward someone who only chases hot topics for too long, but it will keep giving patient and disciplined people the chance to choose again. In the coming years, I prefer to focus on whether more and more people in the industry are actually using it, rather than guessing the next candlestick every day. Cycles will repeat, narratives will change, and what truly remains are capital, users, and real demand. #比特币 #ETH #SUI #OKB #加密货币 #Web3 #长期主义 @热门Tonight's FOMC, my take: The rate hike is most likely already priced in by the market. What really matters is whether the dot plot and the speech lean dovish or hawkish. For BTC, first watch if it can hold around 75,000; don't get caught up in the rhythm of one-minute candlesticks. Liquidation frenzy doesn't mean the direction is set; wait until the leverage clears to talk about structure. Don't go all-in emotionally tonight; keep some cash and patience.Long and Short Crowding Rankings
$CNPY negative fee rate is at a historically low level in the sample, with shorts bearing the settlement cost: current rate -0.5020%, at the 5.172413793103448275862068966% percentile among the last 58 single settlement samples; total settled fee rate in the past 24 hours over 13 times is -4.354%; price dropped 0.94%, open interest changed +3.76%. Settling at the current rate, funding fees are paid by shorts to longs, with the negative fee rate magnitude at an extreme side of the historical sample.
$SNDK positive fee rate is at a historically high level, with longs facing higher settlement costs: current rate +0.0349%, at the 95% percentile among the last 100 single settlement samples; total settled fee rate in the past 24 hours over 3 times is +0.0104193788073200%; price dropped 0.11%, open interest changed +0.14%.
$RAY positive fee rate is at a historically high level, with longs facing higher settlement costs: current rate +0.0100%, at the 100% percentile among the last 100 single settlement samples; total settled fee rate in the past 24 hours over 3 times is +0.030%; price dropped 0.01%, open interest changed +0.31%.
SNDK, RAY: Settling at the current rate, funding fees are paid by longs to shorts, with the current rate higher than most historical single settlement samples; price decline coexists with longs paying fees, meaning longs face both weakening prices and funding cost.$BTC
Let's review the voting results of tonight's "Clarity Act" motion. The final tally was 49 to 50 votes, with a total of 99 people voting.
This result is clearly not just a simple failure to reach 60 votes; it is an obvious underperformance compared to expectations. The threshold for pushing the bill remains very high and the difficulty is considerable.
Currently, the Senate has 53 Republican seats, 45 Democratic seats, and 2 Independent seats. This means that if all Republicans fully supported it, at minimum 53 votes in favor could be expected.
However, the actual result is a clear contradiction. Not only did Democrats oppose it, but not all Republicans fully supported it either. Four Republicans voted against it.
By checking the list, the results show that Republican senators Susan Collins, Josh Hawley, Jerry Moran, and Tom Tillis voted against it. Tom Tillis voted against in order to preserve the right to reintroduce the motion in the future. So, in reality, three Republicans opposed it.
On the other hand, none of the seven key Democrats voted in favor, meaning their lobbying was basically ineffective!
The current voting results and data basically confirm my previous conclusion: facing the midterm elections, senators vote cautiously. The progress of the Clarity Act is a long and difficult road. In the short term, it is indeed unfavorable to the crypto industry, but in the long term, the possibility is not completely closed! Keep going! The last few hours before the decision, the real signal is not in the candlesticks, but in the positions.
The probability of a rate hike is 88%, but in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 342 million, shorts liquidated 232 million, longs only 110 million — short losses are twice that of longs. First sweep out the shorts, then lure the longs, the script is unfolding.
The fear and greed index jumped from 57 to 68 in one day, greed is being rapidly manufactured. Chasing the rally now is easy to get cut.
Key levels are set here:
$BTC 76,800 is the watershed; holding it targets 78,500-80,000, losing it returns to 76,000
$ETH 2,443 is the lifeline; holding the double bottom is valid, breaking it targets 2,380
$XRP 1.38 is the launch pad, 1.2889 is the lifeline
$ZEC 1,050 is the whale bottom line, resistance at 1,200
$SOL 98.2 is the bottom line, 104.8 is the signal
In the past 12 hours, USDT and USDC issued about 1.4 billion more; money is entering, but hasn't yet surged into altcoins. The real signal is when funding rates turn positive and stablecoins flow into altcoins.
Tonight's focus is not whether to hike rates, but the dot plot and Powell's words.
Dovish hike: ETH, XRP, SOL bounce the most.
Hawkish continuation: BTC holds 76,800, ETH breaks 2,443 first.
Don't chase before the decision, don't immediately buy after.
Wait for the first 1-hour candle close.
#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, will the rate hike land?
#FOMC #BTC #ETH #XRP #ZEC #SOL
Not investment advice, DYOR. In summary: be cautious in the short term, not pessimistic in the medium term. Around 76,000 is the recent tug-of-war point between bulls and bears; holding it could lead to a rebound, breaking it points to 71,000–73,000. Volatility will be highest 24–48 hours after the Fed decision. My personal strategy is to control position size, set stop losses, neither go all-in nor bottom fish lightly. The market is always there; preserving capital comes first. $BTC The procedural vote in the US Senate to advance the CLARITY Act failed 49 to 50, falling short of the 60-vote threshold, delivering a heavy blow to the crypto market.
Luckily, I held back from getting in, or I would have really been stuck at the peak. The crypto market has fully retreated, BTC down 4.67%, ETH down 7.71%. BNB surprisingly didn’t drop much, staying solid. For those who missed out, is it time to get in now?
I think using 15% to avoid missing out, and 85% in cash to guard against a crash is wise. All short-term positions should wait for a landing, long-term positions can buy small amounts, absolutely no leverage. After all, there’s still a small chance of no rate hike; if that happens, you definitely won’t catch it, it will shoot up in one move.
CZ posted a wild idea hoping to see immortal fruit flies on BNB Chain, and this morning there were many memes with the same name. It’s also dropped close to 1m now. BSC’s heat has cooled down quite a bit.
Looks like everyone is scared of being cut short-term again. Why short-term? Because soon enough, everyone will forget, then a golden dog will appear, people will come in, and then get harvested again, an endless cycle.
Arc’s mainnet launched today, and some KOLs are promoting it as a life-changing opportunity. Hope everyone stays calm and doesn’t start screaming and get stuck at the peak again. Often, the places where you see money being made are the places you can’t make money. Sometimes, the opportunities to make money are where few people notice. If you really like Arc, I suggest you check out $CRCL directly.
Still the same advice: control your hands, control your hands! Don’t blindly follow the crowd; most people’s decisions are wrong! $CRCL $BTC ▍₿ BTC Quick Report: Bill Killed, FOMC Tonight, The Most Dangerous 24 Hours
Current price 76,000, went crazy at dawn: CLARITY bill killed 49:50 (4 Republicans defected), BTC once smashed through 75,000, 115,000 liquidations across the network, XRP directly -10%. 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5% (highest since 2007), oil price 105, three major pressures.
▍📍 Key Levels
75,000 is the lifeline, below 75,460-76,378 there are still huge liquidation orders; above 78,000-80,000 has been resisted three times, 83,000 is the trend confirmation level.
▍🎯 Action Plan
Entry: Do not move before the decision. If hawkish sell-off, buy in batches at 73,500-75,000; after landing, recover 78,000 with volume before chasing more.
Targets: 78,000 → 80,000, after stabilizing above 83,000 look to 92K.
Stop loss: Unconditionally exit if daily close falls below 75,000, downside target 73,000.
▍⚠️ Decision at 2:00 AM tonight, Warsh press conference at 2:30 AM. 92% rate hike probability is not the focus, the focus is the dot plot and the speech. Halve your position, survive tonight before talking about tomorrow.
Not investment advice, trade at your own risk The most important thing for $BTC right now is not to guess the rebound, but to see if it can hold steady around $76,000. After the market has continuously given back gains, if this level is lost, the short-term trend is likely to continue downward to find support; conversely, only if it can reclaim $78,000 does it indicate that buyers are starting to regain control. At this position for BTC, I prefer to keep a base position and not chase recklessly in a weak market.
$BICO follows a different logic. Small-cap accounts in abstract sectors have enough elasticity, but the capital sustainability is weaker than the overall market. Before a clear volume increase, sharp rallies are better seen as capital testing the waters; if you want to position, do so with small batches and don't mistake a single rebound for a reversal.
$SLX has recently been pressured down from above $0.07 to around $0.062. The $0.062–$0.060 range is now a critical short-term zone. It can only have room for recovery if it stops falling here and reclaims $0.065; if it continues to break below $0.060, don't rush to buy.
The order of these three positions is very clear: hold BTC, accumulate BICO, wait on SLX. The biggest fear in a weak market is not missing the bottom, but mistaking every dip for the bottom. $BTC: Short Selling
【Trading Strategy】
1. Reference Levels: Closely monitor the 76000-76500 range (MA10 and MA20 resistance zone). Enter short positions in batches if the rebound lacks strength.
2. Defense Setup: Strong resistance above at 77000; stop loss if broken.
3. Downside Target: First watch the previous low at 74955; if effectively broken, consider light short positions.
4. Risk Warning: Do not blindly bottom-fish around 75000 to catch falling knives; beware of a double whammy from both bulls and bears.
【Core Basis】
1. News Impact: The "CLARITY Act" procedural vote failed, regulatory uncertainty triggered panic selling, with total crypto market cap down 4% in 24 hours.
2. Bearish Market Structure: 1-hour K-line has steadily declined from 79600, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 diverging downward, indicating a thoroughly weakened trend.
3. Bullish Liquidations: $671 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, including $200 million in long positions (with $170 million in 12 hours), crushing bullish confidence; deleveraging is ongoing.
4. Momentum Decay: After falling to 74955, there was a slight rebound but volume did not continue to expand, indicating a technical correction after overselling; overall weak pattern remains unchanged.
$ETH $FIL
#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, Will Rate Hikes Land?
#AIDevelopmentAnxietyRises, Chip Stocks Collectively Weaken Countdown to the interest rate meeting, the market is oscillating at low levels with weak volume. $BTC is currently around 74982, after a small probe overnight it pulled back, with resistance at 75988 and support at 73998. $ETH is currently around 2408, resistance at 2570, support at 2362, on-chain staking is stable with no large fluctuations. SOL and DOGE are repeatedly tugging in the short term, small altcoins pulse frequently, with funds moving in and out quickly. US Treasury yields remain high, with strong expectations of rate hikes, suppressing risk assets.
The most dangerous thing about this market is not the unclear direction, but that it looks like there is an opportunity. Small altcoins pulse intermittently, easily misleading people into thinking there is profit to be made, but behind the quick in-and-out of funds, no one is willing to hold positions overnight. Weak volume indicates that the main players are also waiting for the interest rate decision. Entering the market to gamble at this time essentially means betting your own position against others' patience.
The best action during the waiting window before the news is no action. Before a clear one-sided trend emerges, any entry is just testing errors for others.
A similar situation occurred on the eve of the 2021 interest rate meeting, with repeated tugging in the market and frequent pulses in altcoins. Many couldn't resist jumping in to catch the rebound, but once the decision was announced and the direction became clear, short-term positions were all buried. Those who truly waited for the signal ended up with better positions.
The current market is for waiting, not for opportunity. Mainstream coins should be lightly held and observed, altcoins should be avoided, control overall positions, and patiently wait for #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ In the early morning of September 16 Beijing time, the U.S. Senate held a cloture vote on the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," which ended with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, so the bill did not advance. The Republicans hold 53 seats, with at least 3 members not voting in favor.
After the news broke, Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $75,000, and crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase, Circle, Robinhood, and Strategy collectively weakened. On Polymarket, the probability of the bill becoming law by the end of 2026 dropped from over 30% at the beginning of the week to about 5%.
The direct reason for the failure was that the Democrats did not accept the final proposal released by the Republicans on September 14 and submitted a counterproposal just hours before the vote. Mark Warner stated that while enforcement and national security disputes were nearly resolved, conflicts of interest regarding public officials profiting from the crypto industry remained unresolved, leading to opposition. Several Democrats involved in the negotiations ultimately sided against the bill.
The counterproposal is still stuck on ethics provisions, focusing on expanding restrictions, mandating the sale of equity in certain crypto companies, tightening enforcement and disclosure, and adding DeFi protections. The revised text still does not restore the criminal safe harbor for developers, miners, and validators found in the BRCA.
However, this setback only means the bill cannot enter formal consideration and amendment procedures for now; it does not mean final rejection. There is currently no timetable for whether 60 votes can be gathered again within the year. $BTC $ETH The real signal is not in the price, but in the liquidation structure.
The probability of a rate hike in September is 88%, but the liquidation data across the network in the past 24 hours hides key information: total liquidations reached $342 million, shorts liquidated $232 million, longs only $110 million, with short losses 2.1 times that of longs.
77,200 people were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation being Binance's ETHUSDT at $9.19 million. BTC shorts liquidated $74.59 million, ETH shorts liquidated $96.17 million — large funds swept up shorts before the decision, clearing out bearish positions set up in advance.
This is completely opposite to retail traders' perception. The Fear and Greed Index jumped from 57 to 68, rising 12 points in one day, entering the "Greed" zone. Shorts being swept and sentiment turning greedy is a typical "short squeeze rebound" structure, not a true trend reversal.
Positions are more honest than opinions.
---
$BTC is currently oscillating between 77,400-77,700. Resistance at 78,000-78,500; a breakout targets 79,600-80,000; support at 77,000-77,300, more crucially at 76,500-76,800; if broken, look to 75,500-76,000. Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $160 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $134 million, ending a prior four-day net outflow of $463 million.
$ETH is currently between 2,433-2,478, with the 24-hour low of 2,433 just tested. The bid-ask depth ratio is 0.61, with total sell volume at 6.60 versus buy volume at 4.00, showing significant selling pressure. Resistance at 2,486 and 2,614; support at 2,433, with a break accelerating the decline. DeFi market share is contracting short-term, lacking new growth points in core popular applications, weakening short-term bullish confidence.
$XRP has a short liquidation ratio as high as 79%, making it the most thoroughly cleaned mainstream coin. 1.38 is the key defense line; holding it keeps the structure intact, with 1.49 as the next launch pad.
$ZEC short liquidations account for 68%, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 10%, leading altcoins. Resistance at 1,200-1,220; holding above opens space; support at 1,077-1,109, more crucially at 1,050.
$SOL short liquidations account for 50%, with 100.85 repeatedly tested at the 100-yuan level. 98.2 is the bottom line; a breakout at 104.8-105.8 targets 110. 50:49, one-vote veto! Bitcoin plunges, tonight's Fed meeting is the main event
The industry lobbied for years and spent hundreds of millions of dollars, but the Senate vote was 50 in favor and 49 against, falling 10 votes short of the 60-vote threshold. Bitcoin briefly plunged over 3%, with more than 115,000 liquidations across the market. What exactly is happening in the crypto world today?
"Clear Act" fails in the Senate
This bill was supposed to delineate regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC, providing legal clarity for the crypto market. However, Democrats invoked conflict of interest clauses, and eight banking groups called for tightening stablecoin circuit breakers, effectively killing the bill. The crypto regulatory vacuum will continue.
Market hit across the board
$BTC: briefly fell below $75,000, currently around $76,408 (-2.98%)
$ETH: down over 4%
- Crypto concept stocks: Circle down over 11%, Coinbase down over 10%
- Liquidations: over 115,000 in 24 hours, totaling about $490 million
Additional pressure: oil prices surge + U.S. Treasury yields break 5%
WTI crude oil rose over 4% to surpass $105, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5%, a new high since 2007. These two factors combined are a solid suppression on risk assets.
Tonight's main event: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17, with over a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.
If the rate hike happens with hawkish language, the crypto market may continue to decline; if the Fed signals "preemptive rate hike and subsequent wait-and-see," it could trigger a rebound after the negative news is fully priced in.
The bill's veto is today's biggest negative, putting short-term sentiment under pressure. Tonight's Fed decision is the real test—be sure to manage your positions and avoid going all-in during the most news-heavy period.
Do you think the Fed will raise rates tonight? After the hike, will the crypto market continue to fall or rebound after the bad news is priced in? Let's discuss in the comments.$ETH whale continues to close positions near 2400 — in-depth analysis
Core logic of closing positions
This whale established short positions from a high of 2,667, holding through to 2,400 (floating profit about 10%), and is currently taking profits in batches rather than panic closing shorts. Its operational characteristics:
High-level short → trend confirmation → continuous adding to position → batch profit-taking in oversold zone → wait for rebound to short again
This is a complete "trend following + swing harvesting" cycle, currently entering the profit-taking phase.
Why choose to close positions at 2400?
① Extreme oversold signals fully triggered: 4-hour RSI6 at only 17.85, J value at just 7.59 — the most extreme oversold reading in nearly two months. The whale would not wait for a full technical rebound to unfold before exiting; it starts locking in profits at the first confirmation of oversold conditions.
② Bollinger lower band support has been reached
The daily Bollinger lower band is at 2,388.53, and the current price of 2,399 is very close. After breaking below the lower band, a mean reversion rebound is highly likely. The whale will not risk holding shorts near the support level.
After the whale closes positions, what’s next for ETH?
Short term (1-3 days): technical rebound
Rebound target: 2,440-2,465 (dense area of daily EMA5/EMA10)
Catalysts: oversold repair + long buying pressure released by whale closing positions
Probability: over 80% chance of a rebound, but the amplitude won’t be large (1.5%-2.5%) $UNI $6.395, -2.08%, deep drop from 6.577 down to 6.194, then a strong V-recovery back through 6.40. MA5/10/20 all flipped bullish on the bounce — real buying at the lows, not just a wick.
Even with today’s red, the trend is unmistakable: +95.32% (30D), +98.17% (90D), +78.73% (180D). UNI’s been one of the standout performers across the board this cycle.
NFA — watching if 6.40 holds. Anthropic heads to Nasdaq, OpenAI stays on the sidelines, with the two AI giants turning capital choices into two paths: one accepts public pricing, the other continues to delay disclosure. Seemingly a swap between conservatism and aggressiveness, but both are actually raising funds for the next round of computing power, talent, and security investment.
Anthropic's dilemma is easy to explain: the more it talks about risks, the more it needs to build guardrails; the more guardrails it builds, the more long-term funding it requires. IPO is not abandoning safety, but turning safety from a slogan into budget, audit, and disclosure obligations.
But once the bell rings, the market will focus on revenue, profit, and model iteration. When the security team calls a halt, investors may not be willing to wait. What needs to be verified is not whether Claude can make money, but whether the public market can tolerate an AI company that occasionally slows down.
I still hope it goes public. AI affects everyone, yet operational information flows only to a few private equity shareholders, which itself is a risk. The public market is noisy, but it forces costs, governance, and trade-offs to surface.
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO $BTC ｜Widespread shallow losses are the most deceptive traps
Three 3x fully leveraged long positions, none of which are deeply or severely losing, yet all are showing floating losses:
- BTC: Entry at 76519, floating loss **‑3.24%**
- DOGE: Entry at 0.08137, floating loss **‑4.04%**
- ADA: Entry at 0.08137, floating loss **‑8.21%**
Many people think: the losses aren’t big, liquidation is far away, so it’s not a big problem.
But it’s precisely this widespread, mild trapping that is the most damaging.
It’s not a sharp pain forcing you to make a decision, but a slow erosion of your judgment.
Each position subtly suggests: just a small rebound and you’ll break even.
So your originally planned stop-losses and position reductions get postponed again and again.
Spreading out three long positions seems like diversification of assets, but in reality it diversifies the pain and amplifies false hope.
When the market moves slightly, all three positions tug at your emotions simultaneously. A little rise makes you reluctant to exit, a little drop makes you unwilling to cut losses.
3x leverage isn’t extreme, but never underestimate it.
Shallow losses in spot trading are just floating losses; shallow losses with leverage continuously drain your psychological capital.
Especially with the looming FOMC event ahead, macro conditions can change at any time.
This is no longer a game of "wait for a rebound to win," but one where you must distinguish:
Am I holding because the logic still holds, or simply because I don’t want to admit I bought too early. 49 votes against 50 votes, the bill was rejected, CEO lashes out, XRP market acts asleep
3 hours ago, $XRP moved only 0.07% in half an hour — the CLARITY bill was rejected in the Senate by 49 to 50 votes, missing the 60-vote threshold, Ripple CEO lashed out. Negative news dulling does not mean bottoming out, at this position I only short.
Since the event, it moved from 1.2862 back to 1.2948 (+0.67%). The negative news was priced in before the vote.
The market itself is dumping — 24 hours -9.26%, volume ratio 1.822 with increased volume, daily Bollinger middle band lost at 1.3906; long-short account ratio 2.5894, 70% of accounts are long.
The overall market is not helping — BTC 75894 is below the 7-day moving average.
Resistance above: 1.3159 (15m SAR) → 1.3441 (first rebound hurdle)
Support below: 1.2651 (24-hour low)
Watershed: 1.2651 — holding this level means bottoming, breaking it accelerates the drop.
More likely a weak rebound then a further drop, not a V-shaped recovery; up 30.31% in 30 days, I won’t chase shorts if 1.2651 holds. Action: short near rebound at 1.3159, stop loss above 1.3441, target 1.2651, if broken look at 1.2588.
Don’t want to miss the next move, keep an eye on it.
$XRP $BTC9 high-liquidity coins flipped from all down to all up, with trading volume increasing by only 1.24%
06:00—07:00, the fixed sample of 9 high-liquidity coins all closed higher; the previous hour saw all 9 coins down. The total spot trading volume of the sample increased from 37.68 million to 38.1479 million USDT, only a 1.24% increase, so the broad rise currently lacks confirmation from increased trading volume.
UNI rose 2.07% as the strongest, XRP up 0.92%, SOL up 0.63%, BTC and ETH only up 0.29% and 0.27% respectively. If in the next hour at least 6 out of 9 continue to close higher and the total trading volume is not less than 38.1479 million, the recovery will have continuation; if declines expand to 6 coins, the directional reversal fails. What changes would make you reclassify this broad rise as a true recovery?
#BTC #ETH #OKB$BTC rebound met resistance and fell back, 75,700 gained and lost again! This upper shadow line is a bit painful
Bitcoin just surged and was pushed back, the latest quote is 75,692, the decline returned to 1.06%
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the price briefly touched near 76,000 then quickly fell back, leaving a clear upper shadow line, indicating that the selling pressure above is still significant
Currently, MA5 to MA120 still show a bearish alignment, the 76,000 level is like an iron gate, without volume it simply can't be passed.
24-hour trading volume is 715 million, volume hasn't expanded, indicating this rebound is more of an internal capital game, lacking incremental inflow.
The current market is a typical "rise and fall" scenario, support at 74,955 remains, but there is heavy pressure above
Next, focus on whether the 75,500 level can hold; if it breaks, it may retest 74,955 again
If it can hold steady, there is still a chance for repeated bottom grinding
Before the market clarifies, stay patient, don't be fooled by the upper shadow line
What do you all think, will this pullback break the previous low? $ETH has been consolidating around the 2500 level for a full month, and the bulls' defense line has not been breached so far. This itself is a position signal worth noting: the funds that have been shorting from 1914 until now are currently under continuous squeezing pressure. 🤔
From a mechanism perspective, price rejection of a pullback often means selling pressure is gradually being absorbed, rather than indicating strong new buying. At the beginning of the month, some claimed the price would not fall further that month, but that did not materialize; now the same narrative is applied to September, with market sentiment shifting from doubt to a self-reinforcing belief that "it can't fall further." This consensus expectation itself is a warning sign because it neither confirms a trend nor provides a basis for entry.
In terms of impact, if 2500 becomes a temporary support, short covering could amplify short-term volatility, but this does not equal a trend reversal. The risk lies in that once a macro event or liquidity tightening breaks the deadlock, the longer the consolidation, the more intense the volatility after the direction is chosen.
In terms of observation conditions, attention should be paid to whether $ETH can hold 2600 and whether volume supports it. If it truly falls back to 2000 later, we need to see liquidity weakening again or a macro event providing direction; currently, there is no source supporting this judgment.
Risk reminder: The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please make independent judgments and control your positions. $BTC Bill Fails + Comprehensive Technical Chart Analysis
The bill has been confirmed to fail, negative news realized
The "CLARITY Bill" officially failed on September 15 Eastern Time with a 49:50 vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold. This was the most systematic crypto regulatory legislative attempt since 2026, and it is almost impossible to restart in the short term (Congress is about to recess for the midterm elections). Bitcoin plummeted from a high of $79,586 to $74,896 (a 24h drop of over 5%), and Coinbase's stock price once fell more than 10%.
But the key signal is: the crash has already happened, and it is currently stabilizing on low volume. Trading advice
If you hold a short position:
It is not recommended to chase shorts at the current position (4-hour oversold + 15-minute golden cross)
Wait for a rebound to the 76,000-76,300 range before adding shorts, with a stop loss above 77,200
First take-profit target: 74,500 The most vulnerable link isn't BTC, but those knockoffs that follow the rally but no one asks why. Have you noticed that the calmer the decision before a major decision, the easier it is to let people down? I stared at the market all night; BTC repeatedly tested between 81K and 82.15K, ETH stuck between 2.6K and 2.65K, ZEC was more subtle, and the range from 1093 to 1199 was so wide it seemed to leave a way out for both sides. At the same time, the probability of the Fed's hawkish stance in September was pushed to around 90%. Risk assets should theoretically be suppressed, but crypto held firm without falling. This is less like an initial start and more like a sentiment support during a divergence phase. What the market is trading now is not about "whether to raise rates" itself, but "who will blink before the decision." The fact that the price hasn't crashed doesn't mean the risk has been digested; it just means many people are reluctant to exit before the answer is revealed. At such times, the most easily overlooked thing is: real volatility often doesn't happen at the moment the news lands, but in the two-way sweep before it lands. The bullish path also holds. If BTC can hold above 82.15K with volume and ETH reclaim 2.65K, it means funds are willing to take sides in uncertainty. High-volatility stocks like ZEC may be the first to give direction, and the sentiment of the altcoins will also breathe a sigh of relief. But conversely, once the 75K and 2500 support levels are quickly pierced and pulled back, the ones hurt often aren't the spot market, but the leveraged and chasing the high. What I care more about now is not the rise or fall, but the rhythm. Every fake breakout before a decision seems to filter out whomCORE Hotspot｜Team Makes a Surprise Visit to Tokyo for Closed-Door Talks! Is It Institutional Breakthrough or Marketing Hype?
⚠️This article is purely an on-chain logic science popularization review and does not constitute any investment advice
Recently, the overseas community buzz has been at a peak, with fragmented news spreading wildly about the CORE team appearing at the Tokyo Web3 venue. There is no official press release, only photos taken by attendees and scattered offline meeting leaks. Many have directly interpreted this Tokyo trip as a major positive signal, believing the project has connected with Asian institutional resources and is experiencing a fundamental turnaround. But beyond the lively venue facade, we need to distinguish: closed-door talks do not equal cooperation implementation.
During this Tokyo trip, the team split into three groups to advance work separately. The business development team engaged with local Japanese funds, exchanges, and compliance consulting firms. After the 8.31 vulnerability incident, CORE’s biggest challenge is the loss of institutional trust. Many overseas whales and Asian capital no longer rely solely on promotional content on Twitter; they prefer face-to-face offline communication to understand the Satoshi Plus architecture, Hermes version upgrade, and the full security mechanism after vulnerability fixes. Face-to-face communication is the first step to repairing trust, but offline meetings ≠ completion of capital due diligence, and there is still a long process before funds enter.
The ecosystem incubation group focused on negotiations for SatPay’s Asian rollout. Tokyo is a frontier for BTCFi and RWA, and the team is discussing pilot plans with payment service providers and debit card partners. The goal is to turn the narrative of BTC staking, lending, and consumption integration from whitepaper theory into a real business closed loop. If a compliant pilot can be run in Japan, it will become a model for CORE’s global ecosystem. But at this stage, it is only negotiation; no product launch has occurred, so do not overestimate short-term effects.
The technical team simultaneously aligned offline with East Asian miners and validator nodes on the Hermes upgrade roadmap. After the 8.31 contract vulnerability, many nodes and miners are filled with concerns, fearing further incentive mechanism anomalies. Offline communication on upgrade plans and security reviews essentially aims to stabilize the underlying node ecosystem and ensure network stability.
Although the team is actively going abroad to self-rescue, the market’s three major hard evidences remain unbroken: the 69 million ghost token disposal plan is still not implemented, institutional TVL of lstBTC has not grown significantly, and the ecosystem’s real transaction fees still cannot hedge long-term inflation.
Offline business meetings are positive actions, only indicating the project side is actively repairing trust cracks, which is a plus but not a trigger for fundamental reversal. The capital market is always rational; institutional risk control will not erase the historical stigma of issuance vulnerabilities because of one closed-door meeting in Tokyo.
For retail investors, do not be dazzled by the community’s lively news. This trip is more about expectation repair, not the realization of substantial benefits. You still need to stick to your original judgment, only gamble with very small positions, avoid heavy bets, and do not treat negotiation rumors as buy signals.
Voting power of track funds is always held by on-chain verifiable data, not venue photos.
💬 Interactive question: Do you think the CORE Tokyo trip really secured institutional intentions, or is it purely community marketing? Share your thoughts in the comments!Tonight at midnight is the FOMC meeting, which I treat as a "lottery draw" rather than a "prediction".
Tomorrow at midnight (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with Powell holding a press conference and releasing the dot plot. The market is currently pricing in nearly a 70% chance of a 25 basis point hike, meaning this time the debate isn't about "whether to cut or not," but "whether to raise or not"—a complete reversal from the context of everyone hoping for rate cuts in the past two years.
I've set two responses for myself, writing them down to calm my nerves:
1. If they do raise by 25bp: short-term bearish, $BTC might test 75,000 or even 72,000. But I won't panic sell, because after the hike the negative sentiment will be fully priced in, and if the dot plot hints at no further hikes, it could actually mark a bottom.
2. If they unexpectedly hold steady: that would be a super dovish surprise, risk assets will likely breathe a sigh of relief, and Bitcoin could have a chance to rebound to 78,000–80,000.
The key isn't whether they hike or not, but the dot plot and Powell's wording—whether he says "more hikes to come" or "this hike is the last." That statement is more valuable than the rate number itself.
There's also something else today: Circle's Arc Chain institutional chain went live, with OpenSea and fomo supporting it on day one. The institutional-grade public chain sector is worth watching long-term, but don't rush in today to catch the falling knife. $BTC In this bull market, I increasingly feel that SOL is the easiest coin for retail investors to make money and to sell off. The reason is simple. SOL's gains are often not incremental increases but rapid rallies. Many people sell as soon as they break even; 20% is enough, 50% is fearful, and 100% is too much to chase. In the end, the real big market is always taken by others. I see many people share a common habit: when their accounts finally turn green, they think "to cash in first." That's not wrong, but if you sell everything, you'll only keep chasing higher prices afterward. My approach leans more toward "cashing out in batches." Assuming 100% of the SOL position is in total, don't bet on the highest point, but set several take-profit ranges in advance. At each target, sell part of it, lock in profits, and keep your position to continue participating in the rise. This way, whether it continues to rally or pull back, your mindset will be much more stable. Many people overlook one thing: in the second half of a bull market, sentiment matters more than technique. When the market is shouting "SOL can double again" every day and the comment section is filled with FOMO, the risk is actually slowly increasing. The more optimistic everyone is, the more discipline should be enforced, not just change plans at the last minute. I've summarized four SOL bull market disciplines: First, don't predict the top, only follow your plan. Second, don't sell all your positions at once, and don't sell a single coin. Third, after each take-profit, manage profits and principal separately. Fourth, keep cash and wait for the next pullback, not chase the last bullish candle. That's what truly makes moneySAGA current price is 0.02413, the order book is as thin as the guard booth window at 3 a.m. 0.024 is a psychological barrier, below 0.0235 there is a dense liquidation zone, above 0.0252 there is selling pressure from previous highs. No whale movements detected on-chain, funding rate is neutral, indicating both bulls and bears are waiting. Just finished shining a flashlight in the underground garage, came back to see the K-line still sideways.
Logical deduction: The current price is at the lower edge of the range, low volume sideways movement is either a bottom or a consolidation. If volume breaks below 0.0238, target 0.0232 or even 0.0225. If it holds above 0.0243, short-term rebound target is 0.025. No news driving the market currently, purely order book game, avoid heavy positions.
Operation: Enter short near 0.0245, stop loss at 0.0252, take profit at 0.0232. For long positions, wait for 0.0238 not to break before entering, stop loss at 0.0233, take profit at 0.025. Keep leverage within 5x. When the market is unclear, trade less, preserving capital is more important than anything. Need to patrol again late at night, will place orders first.
$SAGA
#Robinhood股票代币拟支持实物赎回及投票
@OKX星球 $BTC analysis this morning: It's clear the bill did not pass, the lowest dropped to 74900, dipped below 75000 but it was a wick, current price 75500. Yesterday I said I would watch for long positions around 76000, with a stop loss at 75000/74000. I'm still holding, but my stop loss is at 74800. I woke up thinking I had a loss; at most, if I lose 1200 points, I'll exit. It might just be trying to sweep liquidity. I'll provide more views this afternoon or evening. Take profit remains unchanged; for Bitcoin, it's either take profit or stop loss—either lose 1200 or gain 3200 depending on where it goes 😅 $ETH current price 2400, yesterday I mentioned three key points to watch for long positions, stop loss at 2350, lowest reached 2356. If you enter in batches at those three points, your average price will be 2410, which is mine. If afraid, stop loss at 10 points; if not, we hold to the end. My levels haven't changed; all numbers were given in previous messages.
For your reference only
Just sharing
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？