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其实早盘我们已经提前给出了思路：先观察反弹后的回落力度，一旦出现破位，就继续关注83000附近的支撑。随后行情基本按照预期运行，两次空单机会都精准踩到了节奏，累计吃到接近2500点的空间。 ETH的波动更加剧烈，最低下探到2550附近。早盘同样提前提示先观察回落，两次实盘空单也成功抓住了接近250点的下跌空间。 这不是事后找理由，而是提前做好预判；也不是单纯靠运气，而是对市场节奏的把握。 行情越剧烈，越不能乱了方向。机会一直都在，关键是能不能提前做好准备、跟上节奏。下一轮行情即将到来，别再让利润从眼前溜走。 **BTC目前仍处于破位后的弱势下行结构，短线空头暂时占据主动。**操作上继续按照原计划执行。 如果BTC快速下探至 83000—82000 关键支撑区域，可以轻仓分批尝试多单，重点观察止跌信号以及量价是否配合。若该区域继续有效跌破，则下一步关注 81500—80500 的二级支撑区，再考虑分批低吸，但一定要控制仓位，不能一次性重仓。 多单目标暂时仍看 86000—87500，如果后续向上突破关键压力，则重点等待回踩确认，再判断是否继续跟进。 ETH方面： 2550—2530区域可New developments in US regulation! Bill stalled, regulation shifts to administrative measures to fill the gap
The CLARITY Act was blocked in the Senate, and the two major US regulatory agencies have begun to accelerate their actions.
On October 5, the CFTC announced plans to rely on the Commodity Exchange Act to establish a nationwide unified regulatory framework for retail crypto trading involving leverage, margin, and financing, considering adding a new independent registration category for crypto markets.
On October 1, the SEC introduced a new custody rule proposal: qualified investment advisers can self-custody clients' crypto assets, and state-chartered trust institutions can also serve as custodians.
Core judgment: The legislative path is blocked, so regulation is advancing through administrative rules.
The regulatory framework is becoming clearer, which is beneficial for institutional capital entry in the medium to long term and is a medium-term positive;
However, both rules are currently in the public comment phase and have not been implemented, so they will not bring incremental buying pressure in the short term.
Market status: Bitcoin is oscillating near 85,000, ETF funds are diverging, BTC continues to flow back in, ETH continues to flow out. Long-term US Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, and high interest rate pressure persists. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Personal position: Continuing to hold short at 86,500.
Logic unchanged: Positive news has been priced in, heavy resistance above, funds are gradually withdrawing.
Stop loss at 87,500, target 84,500-85,000; reduce position upon reaching target, keep remaining position at breakeven. Spent some time browsing the planet, here’s a little summary of my thoughts:
When it’s rising, brothers, hold tight, the bull market has just started, throw in some support, full speed ahead!
When it pulls back, luckily I left, almost took a loss.
Damn 🐴. So it’s just shouting, always making money.
Indeed, shouting doesn’t cause losses, the ones losing are those who click in and believe. What a pity! So sad! So tragic! #sui sets a record of 40.6 million TPS
[Old Leek Observation]
Yesterday it was still pushing 6 million TPS. Today, $SUI directly hit: 40,614,180 TPS.
This result came from Sui's stress test conducted live at the Basecamp event in Singapore.
The record in July was 6.08 million TPS. This time it increased by 6.7 times. Moreover, Sui originally set the target for this test at only 20 million TPS, but the result doubled that.
However, there is a key detail here:
This is not 40 million transactions all directly written into the Sui mainnet. It mainly relies on Sui Tunnels, where transactions are executed at high speed in programmable chain sub-channels and then settled on the mainnet.
More than 10,000 Tunnels were running simultaneously on site, testing payments, gaming, chat, and AI Agent interactions. CertiK conducted independent verification, and a full test report will be published.
So the real point of interest is not the "40.61 million" number.
But rather:
If in the future AI Agents really start making high-frequency payments to each other, can the blockchain actually handle such transaction volumes?
Sui is proving this with its own chain. $BNB $ETH The short position finally shows profit, should I take profit at the 82,500 hurdle?
Just finished moving a few bags of cement, covered in dust, I opened the app to take a look, and the previous short position is finally floating in profit. Trading is really tough—physical labor moving bricks during the day, mental labor moving bricks at night.
Looking at the current 1-minute chart, BTC dipped to around 82,592 at its lowest, now fluctuating at 82,746 (intraday drop of 0.80%). From the order book data, there are nearly 800 BTC worth of orders hanging between 82,500-82,600 below (possibly from whales or liquidity pools), so this support level looks quite strong.
Currently, the 1-minute MA and EMA lines are starting to flatten, and the downward momentum is clearly weakening. The dilemma now is: the short position is already profitable, but if I hold on, I’m afraid the support will cause a rebound and wipe out the profits; if I close the position now and run, I’m afraid it will break below 82,500 and test even lower levels.
Brothers, when you encounter this kind of "floating profit but strong support" situation, how do you usually operate? Do you take partial profits to secure gains, or set a protective stop and continue to play? $BTC $ETH $SOL #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $HYPE just cashed out and came back, and one sentence in the group chat stopped me: HyperLabs redeemed 3.75 million HYPE, what does that mean?
I replied while snacking: The developer team's related address first unstakes, then redeems the coins and takes them in hand two minutes later. Simply put, it turns locked tokens into spot tokens that can be sold anytime. Anyone who has handled staking knows that normal unlocking wouldn't be this urgent, just two minutes.
This move itself isn't fatal, $32.5 million turnover, 24h trading volume is only $25 million, if they really dumped it all, it could create a pit. But what does it look like? Like eating halfway through a meal, and the host quietly takes the knife off the table—without saying what for, you just feel uncomfortable sitting there.
I've liked this coin's order book depth since day one, but I've been saying this for half a year. Now seeing this operation, I'm moving the little position I have left to watch the show. First batch, a heads-up, whoever runs first, wait and see. $HYPE $BTC From the perspective of open interest, despite the price decline during this period, open interest has not fled but has instead continuously hit new highs, indicating ongoing battles between bulls and bears entering the market. Currently, it is a consolidation phase with positions being held and bottoming out, not a panic-driven liquidation. Liquidity is accumulating before a market shift, and once a breakout occurs, a rapid spike is likely. Funding rates occasionally turn negative, with no extreme one-sided bullish or bearish dominance. Sentiment is in a stalemate with no clear one-sided premium. The trading direction remains bullish; another spike would be a good entry point.Market just flushed. $709M liquidated in 24h — $647M of that was longs. BTC dropped to $82,700, ETH flushed to $2,538 and couldn't hold $2,600.
122,768 traders got wrecked. Largest single liquidation: $26.6M.
I warned about the pullback when BTC was at 85k. Who's still holding, and who's already liquidated?
$BTC 【SUI has already reached 40.6 million TPS, yet the coin price is still around $1.1?】
$SUI really pushed the numbers to an absurd level this time: 40,614,180 TPS, more than 6 times the record of about 6.1 million in July. The issue is, this isn’t the Sui mainnet actually processing 40 million transactions per second, but rather over 10,000 Sui Tunnels running off-chain, with final settlement on the mainnet.
What I think deserves the most attention is that AI Agents might really need this kind of infrastructure in the future. Humans may not need this many transactions in a year, but machine-to-machine payments, gaming, chatting, with millions of interactions per second is not entirely far-fetched.
Although there is good news, the coin price hasn’t risen much; SUI is about $1.13, with a 7-day high of $1.26, and it has been falling over the past two days; derivatives open interest also dropped rapidly from nearly $1 billion on October 5 to about $150 million.
This is quite interesting: the technical narrative is clearly upgrading, but leveraged funds have mostly withdrawn. If later SUI spot volume picks up again and the ecosystem’s real usage catches up, this 40M TPS won’t just be a flashy demo, but could be something that the next AI Agent narrative can truly hype. For now, don’t get dazzled by the 40 million figure; CertiK’s full audit results haven’t come out yet.#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
The rebound confirmation period has not arrived; staying alive is more important than bottom fishing.
In this round of decline, being out of position avoided most losses. There's nothing to celebrate, just that the wrong timing was avoided. BTC still faces heavy resistance above; rebound momentum weakens with each attempt, and the so-called "support" seems passively formed through repeated probing. As long as there is no substantial shift at the macro level, any rebound can only be seen as a correction, not a reversal.
ETH repeated its problem of falling with BTC but not rising with it this round. During the drop, sentiment-driven traders fled en masse; during the rebound, funds hesitated. To catch Ethereum's elasticity, you must first wait for BTC to stabilize the stage, otherwise, it's like catching a flying knife. Swing trades are possible, but expectations should be lowered and stop losses tightened.
As for those hot coins, they rise fast and fall even faster; the more seductive the narrative, the more thorough the harvest. When the market trembles slightly, liquidity dries up instantly. Small positions for trial and error are discipline; heavy positions are tuition fees paid to the market. Don't use "faith" to justify losses.
Overall, market sentiment is still in the early stage of recovery; no reversal signals have been confirmed. The real risk is not missing out but running out of bullets halfway up the mountain. Be patient for the right side, for volume-price coordination, for certainty.
Control your hands, keep cash, and don't get repeatedly drained in the volatility. Staying alive is the only qualification to talk about the next market cycle.
Wishing everyone steady mindset, less action, more observation, and to wait for the wind to come
$BTC $ETH $SOL Market sentiment is somewhat suppressed, and the price continues to face downward pressure, currently at 82818. All moving averages on the 4-hour candlestick chart are above, confirming a clear bearish trend. 82650 is the key support level at the moment, and the price is just testing this area.
The decline is accompanied by increased volume, while the rebound volume is weak, leaving the bulls in a passive position. Once it breaks below 82650, the downside space will open up; to reverse the trend, it must at least break above MA5 (83162). What signal does it represent if this 4-hour candlestick closes below 82650? $BTC 1️⃣ 发生了什么 BTC 现报 8.28 万美元附近，24 小时 -2.5%，隔夜最低摸到 8.28 万；ETH 最狠，跌到 2,553 后回到 2,564 一带，24 小时约 -5%，是这次跌幅最大的主流币；全网 24 小时爆仓 6.96 亿美元，超 10 万人被清算——ETH 一家就占了 2.33 亿（95% 是多单），BTC 爆仓里多头占 94%，单笔最大的一张是 2,664 万美元的 ETH 多单。有意思的是恐惧贪婪指数还在 71（贪婪）：价格在跌，情绪还没崩。 2️⃣ 为什么跌 这次没有"新消息"：纯粹是杠杆太挤。BTC 从 8.57 万一路滑下来，连续破位触发连环止损＋强制平仓，多头头寸被一层层挤出来，一个交易日跌掉 2,500 美元，没见到大买家出来接。宏观底色也没变：美债收益率 5.31%、美元走强，霍尔木兹油轮袭击的余波还在，风险资产继续被抽水。 3️⃣ 关键位置 BTC：上方 8.7 万是 9 月下旬以来四次没上去的铁板，反弹先看能不能收回 8.5 万；下方 8.3 万刚破，8 万整数关是下一道心理防线。 ETH：2,565 恰好是 9 月这波涨幅的 23.6% The Federal Reserve minutes dropped late at night: one hand raises interest rates, the other personally suppresses the dollar.
In the early morning minutes, the 25 basis points hike was unanimously supported, with most thinking it wasn't enough and possibly another hike before the end of the year; inflation risks are tilted upward, even tariffs were explicitly mentioned.
The most intriguing part is the last sentence: the New York Fed representative said the Treasury directly intervened in the foreign exchange market. Raising rates supports the dollar, intervening to suppress the dollar—fighting on both fronts.
Gold was initially stunned then smiled: interest rates can be intimidating, but the direction of the money printing machine never lies. For the crypto world, liquidity is the ultimate trump card.
$BTC$CT
This ID's viewpoint
On the 30-minute CT chart, the high point at 0.63928 has been declining continuously, hitting a low of 0.34297, after which a small purple consolidation zone was formed at the low level. Entry: Consider going long if the price pulls back and stabilizes at the lower edge of the consolidation zone; Stop loss: If the price decisively breaks below the 0.34297 low.
Chan Theory Structure
At the 30-minute level, a complete downtrend wave was formed earlier, bottoming at 0.34297. After the downward momentum was released, the market constructed a low-level oscillating consolidation zone here. Currently, it is in the consolidation phase following the downtrend. There are two possible developments: a pullback to support that stabilizes and tests the upper edge of the consolidation zone upward; or if it directly breaks below 0.34297, the downtrend will continue.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
During the wave that touched the 0.34297 low, the selling volume noticeably contracted compared to the main previous downtrend, indicating weakening bearish power. During this low-level consolidation period, the volume on down candles is relatively small, and rebound bullish candles show support, with chips slowly exchanging and settling at the low level.
Key Observation Points
Pay close attention to the stop-loss signals when the price pulls back to the lower edge of the consolidation zone; if it holds, there is a chance to push toward the upper edge of the zone. Once there is a volume breakout breaking below the 0.34297 low, the bullish view should be set aside, and a new round of decline will begin. Personal technical sharing: Self-developed quantitative system, today the mobile version AI quantitative tool's front and back ends are completed, connected to OKX public market data source, AI can automatically review market trends and generate period summaries, strategy models continuously iterate and optimize.
This project is only for personal technical research, self-use testing, not providing services externally, and does not constitute any investment advice. Virtual assets are highly volatile and risky.📈 Sector rotation divergence! AAVE leads weekly strength, ICP lacks capital support
$AAVE｜4H
Current price 174, 24h decline 3.2%, still +8% over 7 days, the strongest weekly performer among 14 tokens
Key catalysts concentrated: Today sees 67.4 million PT-AUSD maturing, the first round of Pendle fixed income transferring into Aave collateral rolling test; if it lands smoothly, it will continue to boost the lending flywheel; combined with Aavenomics 3.0 planning to introduce a burn mechanism, buyback and burn expectations support valuation
Price retraced from 187 to the 170-174 range, this area was the platform top in early October, daily EMA50 rising to 165 forms strong support, resistance at 181-184, a breakout targets 190
Outlook: Before burn implementation, mainly expectation-driven; holding 170 can target 184-190; breaking 165 will test 155
Intraday range 172-178, stop loss 169
Strategy: Slightly bullish, 170-174 range suitable for dip buying
$ICP｜4H
Current price near 3.2, 24h down 5%, purely beta following the market, no independent driving events, 7-day -3.5%
Current capital preference favors privacy coins and DeFi sectors, ICP's AI narrative lacks short-term capital relay
Price has oscillated between 3.2-3.3 for two weeks, 3.15 is the late September low; breaking below will create a new phase low; resistance above at 3.5
Outlook fully tied to the market, clear strategy: do not bottom fish below 3.1, do not chase highs on rebound to 3.5
Intraday range 3.15-3.35, stop loss 3.10 People trapped by $BTC almost all have the same posture.
They don't dare to chase when it rises, but keep buying aggressively when it falls.
Since the big bearish candle at 87238, all three moving averages on the 4-hour chart have been broken, none of MA5, MA10, or MA20 held.
The 24-hour low dropped to 82650, now it's at 82755.
Someone in the group said 82,000 is the bottom. Really???
One of my group friends opened a long position at 86000.
Bought more at 85000, 84000, and still buying at 83000.
Now the average price is 84600, floating loss nearly 2000 dollars, he said he'll add another 500U tomorrow, and will just lie flat once he reaches the 80,000 whole number.
Tomorrow, 22,000 BTC options expire, with a 2.16 billion USD position weighing down.
What do you think, will it first drop to 80,000 to let him fill up, or will it just rally up to let him break even???Many people expect $SOL to rise above 250, and it must be admitted that Solana could reach above 250. But there is an important factor in between, which is time, and time is also a cost.
I don't think it will reach above 250 this time, for the following reasons.
1. The leading indicator Bitcoin has currently fallen below the range position
2. There is a large amount of trapped positions above Solana; would the market makers kindly help everyone get out?
3. Even if they do help everyone get out, which market maker would pull a bunch of people to the sky,Yesterday, the U.S. government transferred Bitcoin. I can't tell you whether the government will sell or not. But over the past two years, wallets associated with the U.S. government have transferred assets multiple times, each time causing panic, but most were eventually confirmed to be custodial migrations rather than actual sales. Instead of guessing, it's better to watch closely.
Three actionable observation indicators:
Indicator 1 (Capital Flow): Pay attention to whether BTC continues to flow to other exchanges (such as Binance, Coinbase public order books) after being transferred into Coinbase Prime. If it only stays in Prime, custodial transfer is more likely.
Indicator 2 (Price Reaction): Compare historical data—after the government transferred 3,940 BTC in June 2024, BTC dropped about 2%; after transferring 10,000 BTC in August, it dropped 3.6%. The actual drop is often much less than the panic expectation.
Indicator 3 (Policy Signal): Watch for announcements from the Treasury or U.S. Marshals about sales. Historically confirmed sales (such as 9,861 BTC in the 2023 Silk Road case) all had clear court or official disclosures.
If you are a spot holder, the $670 million "potential selling pressure" is insignificant compared to the $28 billion total holdings, so there's no need to panic sell. If you are a contract trader, the current uncertainty suggests lowering leverage and waiting for clear signals before acting, which is wiser than betting on direction.
Government wallets are not your counterparties; your emotions are. Monitoring on-chain data is to know risks in advance, not to create panic prematurely.
$BTC $ETH $BNB Bitcoin is now in the second half of a shakeout under the triple pressure resonance. Pay attention to my short position at 86000; 82000 is the first hurdle.
Currently, BTC is breaking below the 83000 mark and entering a continuous correction phase. Essentially, this is the result of a triple resonance: the revision of the non-farm payroll announcement, institutional capital outflow and cautious stance, and collective contract liquidations. This is also the main downward period I mentioned as the "golden pit shakeout before the bull market." Therefore, the decline is not just a correction but a deep leverage cleansing within the upward cycle.
1. The positive revision of the non-farm payroll was quickly digested; employment is indeed cooling down, and the turning point for the high interest rate environment is still ahead, but the upward rhythm has been disrupted.
2. The core driving force supporting the unilateral rise in September, the ETF buying phase, has paused temporarily. Institutions have proactively stopped chasing highs, waiting for the market to cool down naturally and for prices to correct, seeking cheaper chips.
3. At the same time, buying suddenly stopped while selling concentrated. In the past 24 hours, liquidations reached $550 million, with longs accounting for 90%. This leverage cleansing decline caused by institutional withdrawal plus forced liquidations of retail traders will not last long and is not due to institutional sell-offs.
Given the current market rhythm, and my short positions arranged on October 3rd between 85500-87000 with an average price of 86000, the shorts can continue according to the long-term plan, optimizing the take-profit rhythm:
1. Close 30% at 82600, hold 70% as the base position, targeting 79500-79000, and move the stop loss up to 85500 USD. In the worst case, it’s a small floating profit exit.
2. Change the long position plan: gradually buy between 79000-77500, with the first long target at 90000 and the second at 100000. Total position should not exceed 20%, leverage no more than 5X.
Use a long-term account for this; do not mix short-term and long-term trades in the same account to control risk. This is a shakeout before a bull market. Stick to trading discipline, fully profit from the short position’s drop, and then smoothly switch to long positions at the target price. This is the optimal strategy for this market cycle.【El Salvador is almost reaching the limit of buying $BTC, and the IMF is turning a blind eye?】
This time, what El Salvador got was not "IMF allowing it to buy BTC freely," but a more interesting exemption: the original agreement required limiting the government from further expanding Bitcoin risk exposure, but the IMF accepted the continuation of the existing holdings. El Salvador currently holds about 7,500 BTC, which at current prices amounts to nearly $1 billion in assets.
This doesn't have much direct impact on the BTC price itself; 7,500 BTC is not enough to change global market supply and demand. But what it changes is a label: even the IMF has started to accept that El Salvador's BTC holdings will not be forcibly liquidated due to the agreement.
What’s more worth watching is that El Salvador has not stopped because of this. It has been continuously buying, increasing by about 1 BTC per day on average. What the market really needs to consider is: if other countries also start treating BTC as part of sovereign assets in the future, today's holdings are just an appetizer.
Of course, don’t rush to hype this as "IMF officially embracing BTC." The IMF has not recognized BTC as a legal tender route, and El Salvador is still subject to fiscal and risk exposure constraints. This account will only be truly settled when more countries start to replicate this, not just El Salvador continuing to buy.A whale is increasing their ETH long position more and more.
Their current ETH long size has reached $99 million, using 25x leverage.
Liquidation price: $2509.#imf exempts El Salvador's Bitcoin holdings exceeding limits
[Old Leek Observation]
El Salvador's $BTC holdings have indeed exceeded the limits set by the IMF.
But this time the IMF did not turn hostile. On October 1, the IMF approved a disbursement of about $138 million to El Salvador, while granting an exemption for its Bitcoin holdings violation.
El Salvador now holds about 7,700+ BTC, more than 1,700 BTC above the amount at the start of the IMF program.
El Salvador's explanation is: the additional BTC came from private donations, not government funds.
The IMF accepted this explanation. But this does not mean El Salvador can continue to buy at will.
The IMF clearly requires:
Except for private donations with documentation, the government cannot continue to accumulate BTC.
So the real signal this time is:
The IMF did not force El Salvador to sell its BTC holdings, but also did not give the green light to continue buying BTC with treasury funds.
This is considered a compromise, not a complete turnaround. $ETH $MET $BTC $ETH currently have a bad feeling about the market because the short positions I took from last night to today haven't actually continued to plunge sharply. Although the 82800 level was slightly broken, I don't really believe there will be a short-term crash based on the current trend. A real crash wouldn't give you reaction time; those adding positions would all get liquidated. It feels like the price will at most drop to around 80700, then there will be a big rebound. Because the 87800 level didn't get pushed up to hit the liquidity above, without hitting it, we can't expect a pullback to 78000 or even 75000. Also, it's only been one day and retail traders' sentiment has generally turned bearish again. Usually, when everyone is bearish, it's not a good sign!!!The news says 'The US government transferred $670 million,' which sounds like the government is liquidating assets. But breaking it down — 3,974 BTC come from the Bitfinex hack case, 568.7 BTC from the HashFlare fraud case, 40,285 BNB from Alameda, and a large amount of USDT related to the FTX bankruptcy case.
Bitfinex BTC: The Department of Justice claims in January 2025 to return 94,643 BTC to Bitfinex. The final destination of these assets may not be a "government sell-off" but rather "returning to victims."
HashFlare assets: The Department of Justice clearly states that "seized assets will be used to compensate victims." This is part of the compensation process, not a market sell-off.
Alameda-related BTC/WBTC: This part is in a gray area — WBTC is not legally equivalent to BTC and is classified as "digital asset reserves" rather than "strategic bitcoin reserves." The Treasury Secretary has discretion over its management strategy.
Most people see "the government is selling." But from another perspective — these assets entering Coinbase Prime may be for legal compensation processes, custodial consolidation, or preparation for returning to victims. Misreading "legal process" as "market sell-off" is the biggest cognitive bias in this panic.
Behind the $670 million token transfer is a complex legal procedure involving hacking cases, fraud cases, and bankruptcy cases.
$BTC $ETH $BNB 📊Deep market correction, interpretation of resilience divergence between two targets
$VIRTUAL｜4H
Current price around 0.80, the market plunge has basically leveled off, down 7% in 7 days. The AI Agent sector showed resistance after an initial surge.
Chip concentration is high (top 10 wallets hold 91%), with strong volatility in price movements. The 4-hour chart is stuck in the 0.79-0.84 range, EMA20 is flat, MACD is converging at zero line, no clear direction yet.
Support at 0.75, resistance at 0.835-0.85. Follow market fluctuations before the big decision; if Bitcoin stabilizes, it may push to 0.85, if it breaks down, it may test 0.75.
Intraday range 0.78-0.82, stop loss at 0.765.
Strategy: Neutral, wait and see or light position range trading.
$ZEC｜4H
Current price 1330, down about 2% in 24h, significantly stronger than the market, down 7.8% in 7 days. The upward trend structure since September remains intact.
Privacy coin narrative continues, NU7 testnet launch + multiple institutional products support, pullback absorption is better than most altcoins.
Retracing to key platform at 1300, strong support at 1250; resistance at 1380-1400, upper target 1500.
Holding 1300 maintains strong consolidation, if the market stabilizes, it is expected to rebound first; breaking 1250 weakens the trend, downside target 1150.
Intraday range 1310-1360, stop loss at 1285.
Strategy: Solid sector logic, buy on dips during pullbacks.$SOL: SOL 115 remains the key defense for bulls. Price is still ranging at low levels, but another drop looks likely. A break below 115 could extend the downtrend toward 110–108.
$BTC: BTC is holding the 82.5K–83K weekly support, while 83.5K–84K remains strong resistance. Bears are still in control, and without strong volume or positive news, a breakout looks difficult. A break below 82.5K could trigger a sell-off toward the 80K area.
#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch #BTCETFFlowParadox #ETF is still flowing in, why is BTC falling? CL is weakening along with the broader market; essentially, funds are providing support but sentiment is bearish. My judgment is short-term bearish, not suitable for bottom-fishing.
From the market perspective, it dropped 0.6% in 24h, the high of 90.87 failed to hold, and the low of 87.92 was repeatedly tested; the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are both pressing down, with the 4-hour having fallen 7.05% from the high, indicating a clear downward trend. The order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.99, with selling pressure slightly dominant; the funding rate is -0.0229%, shorts are willing to pay to hold positions, sentiment is bearish but not extreme. Open interest is 386,000, no signs of panic selling, the decline looks more like orderly liquidation.
Strategy-wise, lightly short near 90.35 on a rebound, stop loss at 91.15, target first at 88.25, if broken can hold to 87.35; if volume increases and price recovers above 90.60, exit short positions. Position size controlled within 5% of total funds, single loss not exceeding 2%, no holding through losses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$CL#ETF is still flowing in, why is BTC falling?
#ETF is still flowing in, why is BTC falling? $CL Stayed up for the FOMC minutes, only to see $BTC barely move? 😅
The minutes were hawkish, but markets had already priced it in. The bigger concern is rising Treasury yields, keeping pressure on risk assets.
$ETH ETF outflows continue, while Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows. My BTC/$SOL grids are still running, and I’m holding my ICP short with a trailing stop.
View: $BTC likely stays in the $82K–$85K range. Rebounds are possible, but I’m not calling a reversal yet.
#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch Won with the right market calls, lost, and ended up paying the market back with hard-earned money. This time, it wasn’t a battle where both longs and shorts got wiped out. Longs were simply buried. I kept waiting for the market to reach the stratosphere, but it secured the basement first. No “villa per coin” this time—just a deep hole for every position. I came across a big trader’s delivery chart. After holding for seven days, the final two positions were eventually closed together: $SOL /$USDTGold ETFs set record inflows but struggle against high interest rate pressure, reflecting that MMT is similarly constrained by capital market divergences. My judgment is short-term oscillation with a slight bullish bias but limited upside potential. On the one-hour chart, it is under pressure and falling, down 7.82% from the high; on the four-hour chart, it has rebounded 7.07% from the low, showing clear directional conflict. Current price is 0.1757, up 1.2% in 24h, with a high of 0.1793 and a low of 0.1669. Trading volume is only 845,000, indicating thin liquidity. The top 10 order book buy-sell ratio is 1.07, slightly favoring buyers. Funding rate is 0.0050%, relatively neutral. Open interest is 8.729 million coins, with no extreme crowding on either long or short sides, sentiment is cautious. Strategy-wise, a light long position can be tried on a pullback to 0.1703, with stop loss at 0.1649 and target at 0.1791; if it rallies to around 0.1802 and faces resistance, a short position can be taken, with stop loss at 0.1846 and target at 0.1712. Position size should be controlled within 20%, and no chasing before breakout confirmation.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$MMT#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $MMT Global long-term government bond yields have risen to multi-year highs, putting pressure on risk asset valuations, with highly volatile coins like $SNDK taking the brunt first. My overall judgment is short-term bearish, but after a sharp drop, watch out for a rebound; risk control takes priority over bottom fishing.
Current price is 1695.1, up 2.7% in 24 hours but closed below the high of 1733.4. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both downward, with a 10.64% retracement from the 4-hour high. Trading volume is only 447,000, the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.63, indicating obvious selling pressure. Funding rate is zero, open interest is 46,000 coin-margined contracts, with no premium on either long or short positions, sentiment is cautious.
Strategy: lightly short near 1708.6 on a rebound, stop loss at 1736.4, target 1652.3; if volume breaks below 1618.1, follow the trend to short, stop loss at 1634.7, target 1576.5. Single position size should not exceed 5%, exit immediately on a breakout, strictly no holding losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SNDK#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 $SNDK 💥Highly elastic tokens collectively plunge! DOGE breaks down, UNI leads the decline
$DOGE 4H
Down over 5% in 24h, current price 0.0889, lost the 0.09 level, all gains from last week's rebound have been given back. Previously resisted 0.10 three times, accelerating decline with the broader market.
4H broke below EMA50 and EMA200, MACD dead cross below zero line.
No new fundamental positives, daily inflation continues, classified as a high elasticity beta asset.
Support at 0.085-0.086, strong support at 0.08; resistance at 0.092.
If Bitcoin holds 83000, it will consolidate in range; if broken, look down to 0.08.
Intraday range 0.087-0.091, stop loss at 0.0845.
Strategy: Weak market, reduce position at 0.092 on rebound, do not catch falling knives.
$UNI 4H
Strongest decline among 14 coins, 24h -9%, weekly -12%, retraced 28% from the high, oversold correction exceeded expectations.
Broke below 8.6 platform, EMA50 at 9.2 forms resistance.
Despite burn and tokenized stock narratives, DeFi funds are collectively fleeing, profit-taking concentrated.
Support at 7.6-7.7, if lost look to 7.0; resistance at 8.6.
Short-term may have oversold rebound, without volume recovery above 8.6, it remains a weak rebound.
Intraday range 7.7-8.2, stop loss at 7.55.
Strategy: Do not bottom-fish, patiently wait for right-side stabilization signals.Hormuz risk upgrade, short-term energy supply still has a buffer, geopolitical premium has not yet been transmitted to KAITO, I judge its independent weakness is hard to change. Price structure is bearish, rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions.
Current price 0.3163, 24h down 1.0%, turnover 12.291 million; 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both downward, respectively -10.09% and -14.17% from the high. Buy orders 112,000 vs sell orders 201,000, ratio 0.56, obvious selling pressure; funding rate -0.0030%, open interest 11.8 million coin-margined, short sentiment is mild but not extreme.
Strategy: light short positions can be tried on a rebound to 0.3217, stop loss set at 0.3273, target 0.3091; if it stabilizes near 0.3103 after a drop, small long positions can be taken, stop loss 0.3049, target 0.3197. Single position should not exceed 5% of total funds, exit if stop loss is hit without holding the position.
—This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.—
$KAITO#霍尔木兹风险升级，短期能源供应仍有缓冲
#霍尔木兹风险升级，短期能源供应仍有缓冲 $KAITO Hormuz risk escalation, short-term energy supply still has a buffer, risk asset sentiment has not lost control, SOL is under pressure amid the tug-of-war between risk aversion and risk appetite. I tend to view this round of pullback as an adjustment within an upward structure rather than a trend reversal.
Down 2.2% in 24 hours, current price 115.56, lowest 115.14, down in 1 hour but still upward in 4 hours, short-term bearish long-term bullish. Trading volume only 7.279 million, volume contraction during the decline indicates limited selling pressure. Funding rate is negative, open interest 3.166 million, shorts slightly dominate sentiment; order book buy/sell ratio 1.40, buy orders are actually thicker, with support around 115.1.
Strategy-wise, lightly test long positions on a pullback to 115.41, stop loss at 113.87, target first at 118.63; if volume expands and 113.87 is broken, exit and wait. Position control within 20%, do not chase highs on a low-volume rebound.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$SOL#霍尔木兹风险升级，短期能源供应仍有缓冲
#霍尔木兹风险升级，短期能源供应仍有缓冲 $SOL Don't immediately type "secured" in the chat whenever you see ETF.
According to NewsBTC, Winklevoss Asset Services has submitted an S-1 filing to the SEC, planning to launch the Winklevoss Zcash ETF, intending to list on Nasdaq and directly hold $ZEC. The announcement shows a preliminary prospectus setting a 0.25% sponsorship fee, and Winklevoss Capital has expressed interest in subscribing to shares not exceeding $100 million.
Two observations: First, this is the first time an institution is pushing a privacy coin into the US stock ETF pipeline, with a 0.25% fee rate lower than the generally listed $BTC/$ETH ETFs; second, there is still a long window between the S-1 submission and approval for listing, and the SEC's attitude toward AML compliance for privacy coins remains a key variable. Any negative regulatory signals during this period could impact expectations.
Are you more concerned about the "seed capital's stance" or more about the "compliance approval still underway"? Unlocking is not a dump, it's someone lining up with a checkbook.
On October 6th, the Hyperliquid team unlocked 3.75 million $HYPE tokens, worth about $340 million at market price. When I saw the news push, my palms were sweating. I even set an alarm for 6 a.m. last night to get up and check the market. My mom asked if I was having insomnia. So what happened? The price just wobbled a bit, almost no movement.
Why? To put it simply: these tokens were not dumped on exchanges; they were sold OTC directly to an institutional buyer, cash for tokens, no retail holders’ chips moved at all. In other words, what retail investors feared, institutions saw as a bargain opportunity.
Honestly, I was shaken a couple of days before the unlock. I stayed up late watching the market, my mind racing whether to sell some to avoid risk. My finger hovered over the sell button, but I didn’t press it. Not because I’m that smart, but because I believe the logic behind this project hasn’t changed: buybacks from fees are running, active traders are nearly 320,000, and open positions hit a record high of over 430,000. This thing is backed by real business, not just hype.
My plan is simple: keep my position, treat any dip as a chance to add more. Unlocking happens many times a year, and each time it scares me, but life goes on.
Diamond hands aren’t just for show—they’re forged by the fear of unlocking. Hold on.#SpaceX increases investment in satellite and AI infrastructure This narrative is directing market attention to SLX, which has the concept of Starlink settlement and computing power network. I hold a cautiously bearish short-term view on it.
From the market perspective, the price at 0.05965 has only slightly risen by 0.1%. The 24-hour high of 0.06023 and low of 0.0581 form a narrow range, but the trading volume of 2.332 million is relatively thin. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are downward, with the latter having dropped 20.51% from its high, indicating weak rebound strength. The buy-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is 0.95, with sellers slightly dominant. The funding rate of 0.0050% is neutral, and the open interest of 30.964 million shows that bulls have not exited on a large scale. A turning point is approaching.
If the price rebounds to 0.06015 and faces resistance, a light short position can be tried with a stop loss at 0.06075 and a target at 0.05825; if it breaks below 0.05805 with volume, follow the trend to short with a stop loss at 0.05885 and a target at 0.05615. The combined position of the two trades should not exceed 20%. Beware of false breakouts after the breakout.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$SLX#SpaceX increases investment in satellite and AI infrastructure
#SpaceX increases investment in satellite and AI infrastructure $SLX Looking at the chart, Ethereum has already completed a full 5-wave upward cycle and then started an ABC corrective wave. Wave B rebounded to the heavy resistance zone of 2737-2880, but failed to break through and retreated directly. Currently, it is in the Wave C downward trend! Also, pay attention to the 2360~2560 pivot zone, where there is a high probability of intense volatility and repeated tug-of-war. This was the only confidence for the bulls before; if it can hold steady, the rebound will continue. Conversely, it indicates that the original Wave C downward scenario restarts, and the price will still test the 2110 support later. $ETH SpaceX is increasing investment in satellites and AI infrastructure, with venture capital accelerating into hard technology, temporarily withdrawing funds from altcoin narratives. ETH is under pressure but remains within a consolidation range. I believe this is still a range-bound game, with a turning point approaching.
In the past 24 hours, it dropped 1.9% to 2562.9, with a low of 2532.55 close to the 4-hour support. Trading volume is only 23.041 million, indicating thin liquidity. The order book buy-sell ratio is near 0, with 3426 sell orders versus 15 buy orders, showing obvious selling pressure; however, the funding rate is -0.0003%, open interest is 674,000, indicating crowded shorts and accumulating rebound risk.
If 2533 holds, a light long position can be tried at 2546, with a stop loss at 2518 and a target of 2611; if it breaks down, reverse to short at 2530.5, stop loss at 2558, target 2465. Total position controlled within 5%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$ETH#SpaceX加码卫星与AI基础设施投资
#SpaceX加码卫星与AI基础设施投资 $ETH Bitcoin has returned to around $83,000.
Many people only focus on the candlestick chart but overlook what has really happened in the past two days.
The US Dollar Index has reached around 102, close to an 18-month high.
The US 10-year Treasury yield once exceeded 5.3%.
Brent crude oil has broken through $101 again.
The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes still express concerns about inflation.
Putting these data points together, you can understand why Bitcoin has been struggling recently.
Rising oil prices may increase inflationary pressure.
Stubborn inflation makes it harder for the Fed to ease monetary policy.
Rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding risk assets.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that if the dollar rises, Bitcoin will definitely fall.
Rather, it tells us:
Trading cannot focus solely on Bitcoin itself.
Currently, I mainly observe three things daily:
Whether the US Dollar Index continues to strengthen.
Whether the 10-year US Treasury yield falls back.
Whether spot ETF funds continue to flow in.
When all three signals improve together, it’s more important than just seeing a single bullish candlestick.
I don’t predict whether Bitcoin will go up or down tomorrow.
I only study when it’s worth taking risks and when to protect principal.
After all, my ultimate goal is not to earn more dollars.
It’s to have more BTC in hand.
Don’t miss the live broadcast #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 If this drop makes you itch to cut your position, read this section before deciding. $570 million long positions liquidated in 12 hours—is this leverage washing or narrative change? I stared at the market all night, and BTC directly dropped below 83,000—decisive, almost without hesitation. ETH was fluctuating around 2550, a level that had been there before, so it wasn't unfamiliar. What really concerned me wasn't the drop itself, but the scale of the liquidation—$570 million long positions were forcibly wiped out within half a day. This wasn't a structural collapse, but leverage. But there was a detail many overlooked: the main investors who were cleared out this round were retail investors chasing high prices, who entered late, held heavy positions, and had floating mindsets. Consecutive liquidations amplify the slope of the decline, but it doesn't change the macro logic. In other words, the market isn't trading "the bull market is over," but "whose positions can't hold up." My personal feeling is that this sharp drop is actually sobering up. The narrative was too crowded earlier—everything was rising, everything had its own story, and FOMO was pushing people away. Now, this wave of cleanup has driven out unstable chips, actually giving room for the pace to come. The altcoins are even more obvious: high-beta stocks like SOL are the first to hit when risk appetite shrinks, but if BTC can stabilize, its elasticity will be the first to return. Bullish path: If BTC can hold between 82,000 and 80,000 and ETH holds multiple support points near 2,500, then this is a normal position reset for the next waveThe Fed's "Hawkish Rate Cut" Accelerates Liquidity: The Macro Logic and Structural Concerns of Bitcoin's $120,000 Era
The September FOMC meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve on October 8, 2025, revealed a policy shift signal that surprised the market yet made sense: most participants believe that further rate cuts "may be appropriate" before the end of the year, while remaining highly vigilant about upside inflation risks. Among the 19 participants, just over half expect at least two more rate cuts within the year. This subtle balance of a "hawkish rate cut" coincides with Bitcoin's recent technical pullback after breaking through the historic $120,000 mark—on October 8, BTC retreated to around $122,000 after hitting an all-time high of $126,080, with nearly 180,000 liquidations within 24 hours totaling approximately $645 million.
On the surface, this appears to be a typical high-level profit-taking. But zooming out, the Fed's policy path repricing, the flight-to-safety demand shift triggered by the U.S. government shutdown, the continuous inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds, and JPMorgan's year-end target price of $165,000 are collectively outlining a macro picture far deeper than short-term price fluctuations. This article analyzes Bitcoin's rebalancing of bullish and bearish forces in the $120,000 range from four dimensions: monetary policy, capital flows, on-chain structure, and institutional behavior. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC $HYPE Other coins rely on stories, HYPE relies on buybacks, but this buyback leg is being dismantled from the other end by whales.
1. The buyback is real money: The Assistance Fund received about 14.6 to 15 million USDC in revenue specifically for buybacks, burning 112,580 tokens at an average price of 90.2 in one go at the beginning of October. The spot ETF has a cumulative net inflow of about 346 million USD, accounting for 2.5% of the market cap. These two figures represent genuine buying pressure.
2. But selling pressure is also visible. On September 28, about 177,500 tokens (approximately 16 million USD) were transferred from large wallets to exchanges on-chain, and another 62,900 tokens were sold from fund-related wallets. Traders on X directly pointed fingers at these deposits during the drop from 97-98.
3. Last month's team unlock of 3.75 million tokens was supposed to be sold as a whole to a single institution, but on-chain data shows only 1.875 million tokens went into 5 wallets (375,000 each), with the destination and lock-up terms of the remaining half undisclosed. The movements of these 5 wallets are the cleanest exit signals; keep a close watch on them.
Buybacks can support the floor but cannot push to new highs; the real direction depends on those 5 wallets. $SOL
This ID's viewpoint
SOL 30-minute chart: The previous high at 124.99 peaked, and the long-term major consolidation zone was broken downward. Currently, it is in a downward phase below the consolidation zone. Entry: On a rebound touching the original lower edge of the consolidation zone, if a stagnation signal appears, a short position can be tried; Stop loss: If the price stabilizes back above the purple consolidation zone.
Chan Theory Structure
On the 30-minute level, after falling from the 124.99 high, the market experienced a decline, breaking directly below the multi-day horizontal consolidation zone, representing a downward move away from the consolidation. Currently, it is in a small rebound phase after the breakout. There are two possible paths ahead: a rebound testing consolidation resistance followed by continued decline; or if volume increases and the price returns to the consolidation zone, this breakout fails and the market returns to range-bound oscillation.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
During the purple consolidation phase, bulls and bears are balanced with little volume fluctuation. The breakout candle downward showed increased volume, with bears actively attacking and bulls weak in support. The current small rebound has noticeably insufficient volume, indicating a weak recovery after the decline and lack of buying strength.
Key Observation Points
Focus on whether this rebound can surpass the original lower edge of the consolidation zone; if resisted, the bearish trend continues. Once volume increases and the price returns to the consolidation zone, the breakout logic no longer holds, and the market will oscillate within the range again. Edward Lee went to Polymarket to manage exchange products.
You might not be familiar with the name, but he has worked at Coinbase and Circle, building the foundation of crypto for ten years.
Now he's off to build the infrastructure.
I used to be like this myself; after seeing too much infrastructure, it felt boring, always wanting to move to the application layer, only to realize the hardest part isn't building the stage, but getting people willing to perform on it.
He says every idea should have a price, and every outcome should have a market.
Sounds about right.
But prediction markets have been hyped for years, and only a few have really taken off. Polymarket is one of them, relying on the energy of nationwide betting like during elections.
In other scenarios, whether people still play is hard to say.
So I take a neutral view on this; the person is right, the direction is not wrong, but whether "betting" can become "everyday life" depends on the product.
Do you think you would bet on prediction markets, or do you feel this thing is too far from you?
#美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 $HYPE Global long-term government bond yields have risen to multi-year highs, putting risk appetite under pressure, with funds withdrawing from high-volatility assets. $WLD is hard to remain unaffected; I lean towards a short-term bearish bias with weak rebounds.
Current price is 0.5184, up only 0.1% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 166 million, liquidity is acceptable. The one-hour chart shows weakness, down 12.57% from the high and only 1.49% above the low, leaving limited downside space; the four-hour chart is up but still 14.04% below the high. The funding rate of -0.0032% indicates bears have a slight advantage, with 69.22 million coins held and no signs of panic selling. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.06, buyers are slightly stronger but with limited strength.
Strategy: Light short positions near 0.5273, stop loss at 0.5341, target 0.5089; if it sharply drops to 0.5043, consider a short-term long, stop loss at 0.4981, target 0.5187. Single position size should not exceed 3% of total funds; exit on breakout.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$WLD#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 $WLD #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价# Gold and Bitcoin are both safe-haven alternatives. Under the pressure of capital diversion, BTC is under short-term pressure. I judge that the weak oscillation has not yet ended. Looking at the market, the current price is 82678.3, down 1.7% in 24h, with a low of 82592.7, a turnover of 6.722 million, a slightly positive funding rate of 0.0079%, but with 31,000 coins held. The buy-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is only 0.04, indicating heavy selling pressure. The 1-hour downtrend is -4.54% from the high, and although the 4-hour chart shows an increase, it has already retraced -4.60%, showing obvious insufficient support from bulls. Strategy-wise, lightly short at a rebound to 83420, stop loss at 84085, target 81865; if it sharply falls to around 81630, consider a short-term long, stop loss 80985, target 82750. Position control within 20%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.——
$BTC#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $BTC Honestly, my mom might start using Solana before I do.
Yesterday, I saw a news article: On October 7th, the Solana Foundation officially announced a partnership with Samsung. Samsung Wallet will soon directly support USD stablecoin transfers on Solana, launching by the end of this month, initially covering 82 million Galaxy phones in the US. My mom uses a Samsung, and she doesn't even know what an exchange is.
In plain terms: in the future, ordinary people will use their phones to transfer money, and the interface will still be the same wallet interface, but Solana will be running behind the scenes. Users won't even feel the presence of the "chain," just like you don't need to understand how cell towers work when you send a message. This is what I've been waiting for—not the coin price, but real usage.
To be honest, when I saw the price lingering around 120, my heart skipped a beat. Such a big event, but the market didn't react much. I stared at the screen hesitating for half an hour, my hand on the sell button but then pulling back. I did the same last time, couldn't hold on, and later regretted it badly.
I don't understand technical specs; I only know one thing: if something my mom can use is available, then it has truly gone mainstream.
So my plan is simple: do nothing. After I get paid at the end of the month, I'll add a bit more $SOL. The position isn't big, and I can afford the loss. Hold on and leave it to time. When others panic, I won't add to the chaos—that's just my retail investor logic. Dogecoin dipped 7% on October 7th, touching $0.088, but this round of decline looks more like an overreaction rather than an issue with DOGE itself. On that day, the total market liquidation exceeded $400 million, sparing no one from Bitcoin to various altcoins. The root cause of the sell-off lies in macro factors: a stronger US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and higher oil prices—all three combined to suppress risk appetite. High Beta assets are the first to be hit in such an environment, and DOGE's holding structure means it reacts faster to liquidity tightening, naturally resulting in a larger drop than the broader market.
From another perspective, this actually creates an asymmetric opportunity. This decline was not accompanied by changes in DOGE's fundamentals, no negative news from the project team, nor deterioration in on-chain data. The price drop was a passive sell-off caused by macro capital withdrawal. Such externally driven corrections tend to recover quickly—once the dollar's rally slows, US Treasury yields stabilize, and risk appetite returns, the elasticity of high Beta assets will reverse, causing the previously suppressed portion to rebound more sharply.
Of course, whether this overreaction can be corrected depends on macro easing. If the dollar and yields continue to strengthen and oil prices further push up inflation expectations, the broad sell-off pattern will persist, and $DOGE will find it hard to stand alone. What really needs monitoring now is not DOGE itself, but when the macro variables will turn.