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【On-Chain Trading Update｜SKR】
Monitored address 0x0c1f opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $0.01613
▪ Transaction amount this time: $85,919.28
▪ Leverage: 3x
Note: This address has earned over $285,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +81.72% Bulls suffer a bloodbath, while institutions move against the trend
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has been like a one-sided hunt. The entire network saw liquidations of $573 million, with long positions accounting for $532 million, or 92.82%, which is 12.9 times the short positions. $ETH liquidations reached $250 million, $BTC liquidations $185 million, with longs making up 94% in both cases. BTC fell from 86,000 to 83,299, down 2.65%; ETH broke below 2,550, closing at 2,544, down 5.58%.
The trigger was in the bond market: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.36%, the highest since 2002, putting pressure on risk-free assets.
However, capital is not retreating uniformly. BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $119 million, with BlackRock's IBIT attracting $69.85 million; ETH ETFs, however, have had outflows for six consecutive days, totaling $408 million. Meanwhile, the US government transferred $670 million in seized assets to Coinbase Prime within 32 hours, including 6,215.7 BTC worth $520 million; a major whale, after a year of unlocking, moved 5,513 ETH to Kraken, worth about $14.97 million.
Strategy-wise: BTC support is at 83,299, with a bottom line at 82,500. ETF inflows provide a floor, offsetting government selling pressure, waiting for stabilization; ETH must hold 2,500 to rebound, otherwise reduce positions; SOL key support is 115, reduce positions if it breaks 110, do not chase unless it breaks 125 with volume. Three forces pull in opposite directions—let's see who stands last.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $ETH underperforms BTC and continues to drop! Exchange rate hits a new phase low, 2500 is the lifeline for this week
$ETH's chart is significantly weaker than BTC, with an intraday drop of -4.8%, currently around 2570, intraday low at 2544, continuously underperforming the market.
The ETH/$BTC exchange rate fell to 0.0308, hitting a new phase low, marking a structural weakness highlighted for a consecutive week. The cumulative 60% gain in Q3 has piled up a large amount of profit-taking, combined with continuous net outflows from ETFs, creating a double pressure.
From a technical perspective, the 2700 level has been oscillating for 8 days without holding firm, and last night it directly broke below 2600; 2544 is the lower edge of the platform since October, 2500 is the upper edge of the dense trading zone in September, and also the trend lifeline for this week. The daily MACD formed a death cross above the zero line, with the red bars turning green, releasing bearish momentum.
Support and Resistance
The first rebound target on the upside is 2630-2650, with 2700 as strong resistance from the previous consolidation platform; on the downside, 2500 is the core lifeline for this week. If it is effectively broken, the downside target is 2380-2400.
For the coming week:
The negative impact from the minutes has basically been released. If BTC holds steady at 83000, ETH is likely to see an oversold rebound in the 2500-2520 range; but if 2500 is breached, the adjustment space will further open to 2380-2400.
Short-term trading range
Intraday oscillation range: 2544–2630.
Intraday stop-loss defense point is set at 2498. The price trend in 2026 has shown extremes in both directions once. SoFi's compiled Bitcoin price history records a high of $97,860 in January at the start of the year, a low of $60,074 in February; then a new annual low of $58,035 on June 25. From $58,035 to $86,121 on October 5, there was an increase of about 48%, but the price still remained below the all-time high of $126,198. This position itself has a dual interpretation. If viewed as a deep correction in the middle of the cycle, then the current rebound is a trend recovery; if seen as a pullback after the top, the same price structure leads to a completely different conclusion. The retracement data alone cannot answer this question, but it can define a reasonable range of volatility, which is the part truly useful for risk management. For a framework to judge the cycle position, you can refer to our systematic review of the Bitcoin market cycle and the method of evaluating valuation levels using MVRV and realized price assessment. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC I feel like my recent trades have been going off track again
Last night, I opened this Ethereum position out of spite
Taking such a high and heavy position
In such a volatile market
It was just courting disaster
Sure enough, when trading out of spite, within 20 minutes
A single candle crashed down and blew up the position The load-bearing wall of the Strait of Hormuz is cracking, and global maritime insurance companies have quietly adjusted the stress coefficient into the red zone. From September 28 to October 5, at least twelve incidents involving oil and gas vessels were recorded; the maritime intelligence agency's logs are clear, while the International Maritime Organization's files hold nine reports—these numbers don't match. In my view, this discrepancy is never a statistical error but the most dangerous kind of signal in a survey report: structural deformation has begun, but different measuring instruments are giving conflicting readings.
What really made me spread out the blueprints and re-examine them was another figure. Gulf crude oil exports have already recovered to 21.8 million barrels per day, approaching the pre-war level of 23.3 million barrels. What does this mean? It means the building's facade still looks intact, the elevators still run, and tenants still work, but the shear walls in the underground garage have been hollowed out by one-third. The International Energy Agency is preparing to accelerate the release of about 100 million barrels of reserves, which is equivalent to temporarily installing support columns—it can hold for a while, but it cannot change the original structural load path.
Backup pipelines and inventories act as shock absorbers, able to absorb some vibrations, but they cannot create transport capacity out of thin air. The real fault line lies with the shipowners: as soon as they decide to reduce capacity and increase risk premiums, freight and insurance costs will propagate upward from the bottom, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting inflation. This is not a facade decoration issue; it is a problem of insufficient foundation depth.
Looking at the linkage with the US stock token $xNFLX, the logic chain is very clear. It essentially acts as a component that directly pours macro pressure into the price structure—once crude oil breaks above the 70-dollar mark, transportation costs, energy costs, and freight indices will layer onto equity assets like a load path. This is not simple correlation; it is the bending moment at different points on the same beam, and the shear force diagram will tell you where cracks appear first.
I have worked on too many unfinished projects. White papers are renderings, compliance is the planning permit, but liquidity depth and real utilization rate are the rebar stretching from the foundation to the roof. At this point, the foundation pit has not been inspected, yet the curtain wall has already risen three floors. The Strait's risk premium, reserve releases as temporary support, and shipowners' capacity decisions form a highly unstable triangular support system; if any diagonal tie fails, the entire node will undergo plastic hinge failure.
I don't look at renderings; I drill. The GPS tracks of oil tankers, insurance brokers' quotes, and the International Energy Agency's release schedule—these are the real geological survey boreholes. While everyone is focused on the daily K-line facade, the water level beneath the foundation is rising, and the drainage system is not even drawn on the blueprints. #hormuzsupplywatchBitcoin short-term support is at $81,500-$82,500, with short-term resistance at $84,500-$85,500.
Ethereum short-term support is at $2,500-$2,550, with short-term resistance at $2,650-$2,700.
On the news front, Trump has requested the Department of Defense to formulate a new strike plan against Iran to announce actions before the midterm elections and secure a victory. This maneuver has pushed crude oil prices up again. Europe has once again deployed billion-ton oil reserves to intervene in the market, indicating that oil prices have become a major factor affecting international financial markets. Additionally, the US will release the September CPI on the 14th, which may become a key timing point for Bitcoin's directional choice—will it drop directly or continue to surge past $90,000? Everyone should pay attention to changes in the news.
From a technical perspective, bears suddenly gained strength yesterday, and Bitcoin retested the key support near $82,500, signaling that Bitcoin has returned to the main range of $82,500-$85,500. My personal view remains unchanged: as long as it does not effectively break below $82,500, Bitcoin will continue to oscillate. Once it breaks below $82,500, the next support will be at $79,500-$80,500. Also, obsessing over bull or bear status daily is not very meaningful; I believe it’s better to look at the structure. As long as $72,000-$73,000 is not broken, it’s still a bull market. On the upside, only by firmly holding above $85,500 can Bitcoin have the ability to attack $88,000-$90,000, or even $92,000-$94,000. But I still remind everyone that the risk of a downturn may truly come after breaking through $90,000.
Ethereum follows Bitcoin’s fluctuations and has a similar pattern, so operate according to the rhythm. Short-term selling pressure is slightly greater than Bitcoin’s, so the short-term trend is weaker. Altcoins become more active when Bitcoin falls.
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 SOL 115.96｜Break below 120, 117 becomes the key defense line
SOL has fallen steadily from above 120, hitting a low near 115 today, showing a clear short-term weakening trend. The previously repeatedly defended 117 has now become the first line of defense. Only if it can reclaim 118 will there be a chance to catch a breather; otherwise, further downside space will open up.
In contracts, the focus is on 115–117. If support appears near 115 and it can climb back above 117, watch for a rebound between 118–120; but if 115 is also effectively broken, the next level to watch is around 112–113. With this continuous decline, shorting is uncomfortable and it’s better to wait for a confirmed rebound or a break of key support.
Capital flow is also showing cooling signals: The US spot SOL ETF saw net outflows on October 5, 6, and 7, with about $4.8 million outflow on the 7th; meanwhile, SOL price fell from above $120 to around $116 during the same period.
After failing to hold above 120, the real question the market faces now is whether the pullback near 116 can be supported.
This is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $SOL On-chain settlement volume is skyrocketing, but no one is paying attention—the real usage rates of mainstream coins are diverging. Everyone is watching the price, but the on-chain settlement data tells a completely different story.
$BTC: Settlement volume surges, but mainly driven by institutional arbitrage
BTC's on-chain settlement volume recently hit a new phase high, but looking closely at the structure, most of it is large institutional transfers rather than retail payments. This indicates BTC's current positioning is very clear—it is not a payment tool but a reserve asset on institutional balance sheets. The growth in settlement volume reflects institutions rebalancing portfolios, not an expansion of economic activity.
ETH: Stablecoin settlements are running, but the mainnet is shrinking
$ETH mainnet settlement volume is declining, but stablecoin transfer volume within the Ethereum ecosystem continues to rise, and the on-chain application layer is becoming more prosperous. The problem is: these settlements occur on L2 and sidechains, with the mainnet capturing less and less value. ETH's settlement data is growing, but mainnet revenue is shrinking. This is a structural contradiction, not a cyclical issue.
DOGE: Settlement volume is sluggish, but the number of holding addresses is increasing
$DOGE on-chain settlement volume remains low, indicating it lacks real payment scenarios. However, the number of holding addresses is slowly increasing, with retail investors accumulating. This is a purely sentiment-driven market—no one really uses it to buy things, but everyone believes others will buy. The truth revealed by settlement data is: DOGE's use is speculative, not for payments.
BTC's settlement volume growth is institution-driven, ETH's settlement volume is migrating to L2, and DOGE's settlement volume proves it remains a speculative assetLooking at these two charts, only one phrase comes to mind: "Running naked on the crater of a volcano."
This is not trading; it's clearly handing over heads to the market. Shorting with 50x leverage, opening price at 830, now at 1329, a nearly 60% increase. In crypto, shorting a coin that has risen 60% without a stop loss is not called "value reversion," it's called "faith top-up"—only the faith being topped up is that of the market maker.
First, isolated margin (loss of 699U):
It's like an amputated wound, painful but not infected throughout the body. At least it won't affect other funds in your account; the worst outcome is this position going to zero without dragging you down.
But cross margin (loss of 1281U) is the real bomb:
Margin left is only 69U, holding a floating loss of 1200U. It's like driving a Ferrari with failed brakes going the wrong way on the highway, with a fully loaded truck (the main force) speeding towards you. If the market twitches again or Bitcoin pulls back slightly, the money in your account instantly becomes someone else's profit.
Every second holding this position now is a gamble that the market maker will suddenly show mercy. But in a one-sided rally, the market maker only complains the car is too light, not that there are too many people.
$ZEC Cross margin mode is not about having more money; it's about sharing one margin.
An account holds long positions in $BTC and $ETH.
Profits and losses on both sides are deducted from the same margin.
Where does this money come from:
$ETH position is 38,000 tokens, cost 2682.
Liquidation price is 2520, only 90 dollars away from the current price.
How is this number calculated:
90 dollars divided by the current price, a 3% drop will reach it.
But the 2520 figure is not accurate.
Because $BTC is also losing.
$BTC decreased from over 500 tokens to 255 tokens.
The margin freed by reducing the position was transferred to support $ETH.
Both sides are losing; the first to break is $ETH.
If it drops another few tens of dollars, the system will start selling for it.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #以太坊Glamsterdam升级登陆Sepolia测试网 $BTC $ETH Caught the middle, took the profit. 🎯
Shorted $BTC at 85,550 and manually closed at 83,600. BTC later dipped to 82,700, but I didn’t chase it.
The key was the 86,400–86,800 resistance failing, followed by the break below 85K.
You don’t need to catch the top and bottom. Take your profit, control your greed, and let the next setup come to you.
Now watching 82,700 support and 84K reclaim. No guessing—let price confirm. 📉
#DailyOrbit Standard Chartered custody rumors collide with $ENA pullback: I am bullish if 0.2281 is not broken
$ENA current price 0.2236, 24h -1.193%, the market is trading on rumors of Standard Chartered Singapore RWA custody—but the price is not buying it, dropping from 0.2263 to 0.2236 after the event, down 1.19%.
I am bullish at this level; if the rumor doesn't materialize, the price falls first, and the drop reveals the real position.
Bullish logic: First, the daily MA7 crossed above MA30 for the 18th day, indicating a short-term bullish alignment; second, RSI at 53.2 is neutral and not overbought; third, funding rate at 5e-05 is near zero, showing no crowding among bulls. The bearish side must also be acknowledged: daily MACD formed a death cross above zero 4 days ago, OI to archive is -4.07%, 30-day range position is 0.556, and 7-day is -8.06%, indicating the retreat is not over.
Resistance above: 0.2281, next target 0.2395
Support below: 0.2054
The broader market is retreating from highs, with the average of US crypto concept stocks down -5.42%, BTC has fallen 4 consecutive days; I only trust structural levels, not stories.
Conclusion: If 0.2281 is not broken, enter long at current price 0.2236; cut losses if it breaks below 0.2054; take half profit at 0.2395.
Back to watching the market, follow me for the next signal.
$ENA $BTCFive thousand three hundred sixty basis points — this is not just a number, it is a high-altitude trough generated out of thin air, pressing down on the North American continent's ten-year benchmark, causing the global capital's barometer to hiss in unison. The thirty-year yield breaking 5.7 is a deep trough unseen since 2002; the UK's thirty-year yield surged to 6.036, a level last seen in 1998. European markets are simultaneously reporting highs; this is not a localized thunderstorm, but a large-scale circulation adjustment.
As someone who watches the market closely year-round, I first look at the situational field: energy-driven inflation is like an abnormally warm sea surface temperature, continuously supplying energy to the lower atmosphere; government debt issuance is like surface water that cannot recede; and the massive capital demands of computing infrastructure are a new heat source, continuously heating the baseline of long-term financing costs. The combination of these three factors raises the potential height of long-term interest rates, making it difficult for short-term rates to effectively decline.
Next, consider the wind shear. The tailwind layer of the low-interest-rate era is being shredded, replaced by obvious vertical wind shear — the market will still have opportunities, but every convection will be more intense and shorter than before. The precipitation efficiency of risk assets is decreasing; the same cloud yields less rain.
Specifically for the US stock token $xINTC route: its pressure is determined by two airflows. One is a cold advection from the underlying spot equity market — discount rates rising, valuation anchors being directly pulled down; the other is warm, moist transport from on-chain liquidity itself, which can briefly raise a small ridge when sentiment warms. Currently, the strength of these two airflows is close, forming a typical frontal entanglement: clear skies during the day, thunderstorms at night, and everything changes by the next day’s report. In this situation, it is most taboo to determine the season based on single-day observations.
What concerns me more is the gradient. The slope between the ten-year and thirty-year yields, the US-Germany spread, and the isolated high values of the UK long end all point to the same thing: the world is transitioning from a long-term temperate climate of low interest rates to a subtropical high-pressure zone of high interest rates. The most dangerous aspect of this transition is not the high temperatures themselves, but the repeated alternation of cold and warm — it can cause people to misjudge that summer has ended or that winter will not come again.
So my judgment is straightforward: this is not a passing cold front, but a shifting climate zone. And tokenized equity assets like $xINTC stand right on this moving front line, with volatility expected to remain at strong convective levels for the long term. #GlobalBondYieldShock $BTC Robinhood bought $25 million worth of Bitcoin! The Bitcoin it holds on behalf of customers is more than 600 times that amount!!
▪️ Own holdings of $25 million, equivalent to about 294 BTC at this week's average price — the company put Bitcoin on its own balance sheet for the first time!
Custody for clients: 185,000 BTC, about $15.6 billion, recorded in separate ledgers
▪️ The official figure only gives the amount; 294 BTC is media-calculated — the amount is definitive, the BTC count is an estimate
▪️ In the same week, Strategy bought 334 BTC at an average price of 85,838.80, with total holdings of 848,000 BTC
The disagreement is not about how much was bought, but that "self-owned" and "custodied for others" are not the same thing. The former is a line on the balance sheet, the latter is the shelf it uses for business. In the same week, Strategy bought its 848,000th BTC, while these 294 BTC are the 1st — the company itself says that at a $100 billion market cap, this amount doesn't change much.
There are two sides to BTC as well: new entities entering the market are noteworthy, but this scale cannot enter any supply-demand table — it moves the narrative position, not the price position.
Focus on three things:
① The exact BTC count in the next filing;
② Whether this holding will become a system;
③ Whether the support at 82,000 holds.
Would you consider a broker's self-purchase as the start of institutional entry?
$BTC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 $USELESS, true to its name, has already plummeted drastically. The most critical point is that the biggest whale Bonk Guy (who holds the most) has completely gone silent and hasn't mentioned Useless for a long time. Previously, there were all kinds of hype, but now it's all backfiring.$ZEC Four-hour chart
ZEC previously surged to $1689 before continuously retreating, currently around $1300.
The core pressure of this round of adjustment comes from ETF fund outflows. Grayscale ZCSH has had continuous net outflows for several days, with a single-week outflow scale close to $93.56 million. The managed scale has dropped from nearly $980 million to $751 million, and institutional fund withdrawals have brought sustained selling pressure.
There is an important fundamental event at play: the NU7 upgrade is underway. The testnet activation was completed on October 6. The upgrade will shorten the block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling block production efficiency; the mainnet activation height will be finalized on October 20, with the mainnet activation target date set for November 5.
Resistance above is seen at 1430. To reverse the downtrend, volume must increase and hold above this level to have a chance to recover upward; key support below is at 1250. Once effectively broken, the downside space will further open.
Strategy: Currently, it is a consolidation phase after the decline, with intense long-short battles. ETF selling pressure and upgrade expectations are pulling against each other. Avoid heavy bottom-fishing in the short term; a prudent approach is to wait for a pullback to support and a stable close before considering buying; if the rebound fails to break through resistance, beware of a secondary decline.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 Circle and Tether—the two biggest competitors in the stablecoin market—have rarely stood together on the EU's MiCA regulation this time.
The trigger is MiCA's reserve requirements for "significant" stablecoin issuers: up to 60% of reserves must be held in the form of bank deposits, and are subject to concentration limits with any single bank.
Tether's CEO said: reserves should be invested in highly liquid instruments like government bonds; being forced to expose them in commercial banks is actually more vulnerable. Circle hopes the EU will allow stablecoins compliant under foreign regulatory systems to enter the European market.
Though their opposition logic differs, their conclusion is the same—this rule either makes reserves less secure or reduces choices in the European market.
For us doing PayAll aggregation, European users' U-card options may be directly affected. If the rule is not changed before the December transition period ends, many small and medium issuers may exit Europe, reducing the variety of stablecoins users can use and tightening withdrawal channels. This is also why I insist on multi-channel aggregation on PayAll—if a single channel encounters problems, users need to have a Plan B.Stripe announced at TOKEN2049 that the Bridge-supported stablecoin Visa card will expand from 18 countries to over 100 by the end of the year. Half a year ago, it was still testing in Latin America; now it aims to go global directly.
In September, stablecoin card spending reached $1.2 billion, three times that of the same period last year; Visa stablecoin-linked card payment volume increased by 200% year-over-year, with over 160 projects running on its network; Credit Coop provided $2.5 billion in settlement credit for participating projects.
Stripe's logic is very clear—spend $1.1 billion in 2024 to buy Bridge for on-chain settlement, acquire Privy in 2025 for wallets, and now combine them to make stablecoin cards function like ordinary Visa cards. Stripe's global product head said: "Businesses don’t innovate for innovation’s sake; they need reliable ways to move money."
This shows that stablecoin cards are evolving from niche tools in the crypto circle into mainstream global payment infrastructure. From my experience doing aggregation comparisons at PayAll, the biggest takeaway is that card selection depends not only on fees but also on the depth of settlement network coverage and the transparency of issuer reserves. When Visa, Stripe, and Samsung are all working on the same thing, this track is no longer in the experimental stage.Enter ETH at the position
Short around 2580-2585
Take profit at 2563-2540-2520
Stop loss at 2605
Make sure to set take profit and stop loss!
Make sure to set take profit and stop loss!
Make sure to set take profit and stop loss!
Following orders is voluntary. Join the discussion and check the pinned post.
Always set take profit and stop loss properly.
Use about 3-5% of your position per trade.
Stop loss is not failure, but your own protection.Two signals are telling different stories.
On the BTC side, open interest contracts once dropped to nearly a 12-month low at the end of September, and only started to recover slowly in early October as funding rates rose—this wave of sentiment in Bitcoin is rebuilt by leverage.
ETH, however, tells a different story: in the last 24 hours, network fees reached $435,000, surpassing BTC's $325,600. Don't forget that BTC's market cap is several times larger; for a chain with such a smaller scale, its fees overtaking the big brother is quite an interesting contrast.
Of course, fees alone don't prove "who is used more"; on-chain activity can't be judged by this metric alone.
Here's the question for you: which do you trust more—the sentiment built by leverage, or the on-chain activity driven by real money?$SUI
This ID's viewpoint
SUI on the 30-minute chart surged to 1.2645 before pulling back. The previously long-standing purple consolidation zone was directly broken down, and now the price is oscillating at a low level below the consolidation zone. Entry: On a rebound touching the lower edge of the purple consolidation zone with signs of stagnation, a short position can be attempted; Stop loss: If the price stabilizes and returns back into the purple consolidation zone.
Chan Theory Structure
On the 30-minute timeframe, after the high at 1.2645, upward momentum gradually exhausted, and the market turned downward, directly breaking through the long-maintained horizontal consolidation zone. Currently, it is in the downward phase after leaving the consolidation zone, undergoing a brief pause after the decline. There are two possible subsequent directions: a rebound testing the original lower edge of the consolidation zone as resistance, then continuing downward; or if volume increases and the price pulls back into the consolidation zone, this breakdown is a false breakout, and the market returns to range-bound oscillation.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
Previously, while consolidating back and forth within the purple consolidation zone, volume fluctuations were minor, with bulls and bears in a tug-of-war. The volume significantly increased on the downward breakout candle, indicating concentrated release of bearish power and weak bullish support. Currently, this low-level rebound shows a clear volume contraction, with weak buying strength.
Key Observation Points
Focus on the volume-price coordination of this rebound: if the rebound is under pressure with shrinking volume, the bearish trend will continue; once volume expands and the price stands above the consolidation zone, this breakdown fails, and the trend returns to range-bound competition.The wildest altcoin in the market today is $MET (Meteora), which surged from 0.33 at 11 PM last night all the way to 0.48, now around 0.46, up more than 40% in 24 hours.
What's even more interesting is the contract side: today's contract volume hit 100 million USD, compared to just 11 million yesterday; open interest rose from 1.4 million USD to 6.4 million, yet the funding rate has remained negative, with a settlement of -0.65% at 4 AM.
In simple terms, the more it rises, the more shorts there are, and shorts have to pay longs, making this kind of market prone to sharp reversals. I'm watching two levels: if it holds above 0.48, it could squeeze shorts further; if it falls back to 0.43, I'll exit first.
$BTC at 82,900 and $ETH at 2,570 are still flat, while altcoins are running so strong—don't go all in chasing.
$BTC $ETH $MET #MET #Meteora #ShortSqueeze
#SeptemberFOMCMinutesReleased, most officials favor another rate hike #BTCWhaleSellingPressureEases, ETF funds see three consecutive weeks of net inflows #OKXNOW: Ushering in a new era of 24/7 markets
#RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; small coins are highly volatile, so keep your position size moderate. 【On-Chain Trading Update｜BTC】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $82,897
▪ Transaction amount this time: $124,345.5
▪ Leverage: 16x
Note: This address has earned over $244,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +9.12% $BTC $ETH $SOL In this recent market move, my judgment is simple:
The market is not trending now; it is undergoing "high volatility deleveraging."
BTC briefly dropped below $84,000 yesterday and is now pressured near $83,000; ETH has fallen even more, exceeding 4% in 24 hours, and SOL is weakening around $116. Oil prices, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields are all relatively strong, which is clearly unfavorable for risk assets.
I will not blindly buy the dip here.
Key levels to watch: BTC at 83,000; if it doesn't hold, the market could easily test 80,000 next; ETH at 2530–2550, and if this breaks, there is more downside room.
However, I also do not recommend shorting at this level.
The reason is simple: after continuous sharp declines, high Beta assets like ETH and SOL have entered a clear oversold zone and could quickly rebound at any time.
So my trading approach has only two options:
If the rebound fails to break resistance, continue looking for shorts.
Or wait for BTC to firmly reclaim key levels before confirming and entering long positions.
The easiest way to lose money in this market now is to buy the dip after a big drop and then short again after a breakdown.
The overall bias is bearish, but be cautious of short-term rebounds.
Real opportunities do not come at the peak of extreme emotions but after confirmation following those extremes.
I will trade less and wait more these days.
Because in this kind of market, survival is more important than making an extra profit.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $UNI retraces 28% from the high! Overbought correction accelerates realization, treat as a weak rebound until 8.6 is recovered
The $UNI 4-hour chart has clearly weakened. Since the high of 10.90 on September 23, the price has retraced 28%. The previously repeatedly indicated overbought correction is now materializing, with the adjustment exceeding market expectations.
Technically, it has broken below the key 8.6 level. The daily RSI has fallen from the overbought zone to the neutral zone. The EMA50 moving average has been pushed down to 9.2, forming sustained overhead resistance. The fundamental narrative remains unchanged: the UNIfication burn mechanism and the DEX trading logic brought by tokenized stocks still hold. However, with the overall DeFi sector capital withdrawing, even the best narratives struggle to resist large-scale profit-taking.
Support and resistance: The 8.6 level above is an important resistance platform. Only by reclaiming this level can the current weak pattern potentially be reversed. Below, 7.6–7.7 is the chip platform from early September and serves as the core support for this round of adjustment. If volume-driven breakdown occurs here, the next target is 7.0.
The market is very likely to continue its downward momentum, with an oversold rebound opportunity expected in the 7.5-7.7 range. However, this rebound is merely a weak bounce, not a trend reversal. A reversal requires volume support. Until the price effectively recovers above 8.6, the overall trend remains weak.
Intraday oscillation range: 7.7–8.2.
Intraday stop-loss defense point is set at 7.55. If this level is broken with volume, the lower support fails and downside space opens up.Got stuck, saw Bitcoin break the 5-minute moving average and bought one more lot
Floating profit 20% but didn't sell
In this market, this strategy is only good for taking a quick lick and running
Hesitate for a moment and you get stuck如果BTC这波回踩不是孤立事件，那么它其实在替整个加密市场试探风险偏好。 你注意到ETH和山寨这次没跟着一起崩吗？ 昨晚BTC从85.6K滑到83.2K附近，表面看只是2K多的回调，但我盯盘时更在意的是节奏变了。以前这种级别的下探，ETH通常会跌得更凶，山寨更是直接血流成河。这次不一样，ETH相对抗跌，部分山寨甚至没怎么跟。这说明抛压主要集中在BTC本身，而不是整个市场的信心在瓦解。 关键位置先摆出来。 - 82.8K是短期支撑，跌破它才会真正打开下行空间 - 83.2K是当前价格，刚好卡在支撑上方一点 - 83.8K是近端阻力，收回去才算修复 - 85.6K是这轮下跌的起点，也是多头要重新证明自己的地方 从跨市场联动的角度看，这次BTC单独走弱、ETH和山寨没同步，通常有两种解读。一种是资金在BTC内部做短线止盈，风险偏好没真正退潮，那只要82.8K守住，反弹随时会来，ETH和强势山寨可能先于BTC回暖。另一种是BTC作为龙头先感知到宏观压力，山寨只是还没反应过来，一旦82.8K失守，补跌会来得又快又猛。 我偏向认为现在市场在交易的是"龙头休整、板块轮动还没断"的预期。但有个被忽略的#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 783% is not a reversal, but a critical hit for "betting on HBM": Samsung's Q3 operating profit exploded, AI memory rescues the storage runner-up throne
Samsung Electronics' Q3 operating profit soared 783% year-on-year—not because of crazy phone sales, but because HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) finally caught up with Nvidia's order pace.
The plot twist is intense:
From 2024 to the first half of 2025, SK Hynix took Nvidia's orders with HBM3E first, while Samsung was mocked as the "storage king turned backup";
In Q3 2026, Samsung's HBM3E/12-layer stacking passed major client validation, HBM4 sample delivery accelerated, AI servers, GPU cards, and cloud providers' self-built computing power all locked in production capacity;
Traditional DRAM prices also recovered, with LPDDR5X, server DDR5, and enterprise SSD NAND all raising prices, storage cycle plus AI premium both stepping on the gas.
Breaking down the numbers:
The chip division turned from a "profit drag" back into a "money printing machine," with a low operating profit base (last year was hit by HBM lagging and inventory impairment) also making the 783% look good;
But the real signal is that yields have passed, and customers are willing to sign long-term contracts—AI memory is not a spot business, it is an oligopoly of "locking 18 months of capacity before negotiating price." BTC next 24 hours
- The first support is 82,750–82,800.
- If broken, it will test 82,000–82,500.
- If 82,000 is lost, the next support to watch is 80,000–80,500.
- The first rebound resistance is concentrated at 83,200–83,450.
- Stronger resistance is at 83,600–83,800; only after holding above this can it test 84,400–84,600.
Assessment: A technical rebound may occur, but below 83,800 it still belongs to a corrective phase within a bearish trend. The main focus for the next 24 hours is the 82,000–83,800 range.
ETH next 24 hours
- The first support is the intraday low at 2,535–2,540.
- If broken, look at 2,500–2,510.
- If 2,500 is lost, the next support to watch is 2,460–2,480.
- The first rebound resistance is at 2,575–2,585.
- Stronger resistance is 2,620–2,635; regaining and holding this area will significantly ease short-term weakness.
Assessment: ETH's 1-hour moving average shows signs of stopping the decline, but the 4-hour trend remains bearish. Below 2,585, the risk of a second test of 2,538 remains high. $XAU Gold fell to 4074 yesterday, then immediately rebounded to 4090, and continued to rise above 4100. The subsequent market trend still tends to fluctuate around 4100 for bottoming out. On the upside, 4300 and 4400 are strong resistance zones, with 4400 being the key trend dividing line for the bulls. How the year-end market moves and whether it can hold above 4400 is crucial.
Currently, gold's role is more of a market regulator.
At this stage, the importance of the US dollar outweighs gold, so it will use geopolitical events to temporarily suppress gold prices. However, whether this suppression can be fully maintained is questionable. In the medium to long term, I still remain optimistic that gold will develop its own independent market trend.$JUP Real-time trade review:
1. The 3-minute lower shadow has been broken
2. The 5-minute upper shadow has become a resistance level
3. The 20-position long position has gained over 88%
4. Don't be greedy, act boldly, holding onto profits is the key.
5. $JUP This trade has no technical merit, purely just good luck.It seems that $RAY has not officially formed a top yet. I see a liquidation zone around 2.5 USD, suggesting the price could revisit the previous high and push even higher, triggering short liquidations.
I think we need to see at least one technical divergence signal on the 15-minute timeframe before planning a short.BTC is stuck in the danger zone — not breaking up, not breaking down.
Glassnode’s liquidation map shows a clear battle:
🔺 $92K — key resistance
🔻 $81K — near-term support
⚠️ $75K — next downside level
💀 $60K–$63K — the heavy liquidation zone
The bigger picture still lines up with BTC’s six-month trend.
Now it’s basically bulls vs bears throwing punches again.
If you’re using high leverage, the real question isn’t Where will BTC go?
It’s Where am I getting out if I’m wrong?
#DailyOrbit Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. Yesterday afternoon at the high point, every time $PENGU surged, it fell just short, volume didn’t keep up, and the resistance above was obvious. Seeing the insufficient support, I signaled a short at the high point, advising not to chase longs.
During the repeated intraday fluctuations, the short position wasn’t shaken off but instead awaited the drop. From 0.009042 to 0.008642, the short gained +221.74%. This profit was satisfying; the high-level pressure finally gave an answer, time to enjoy a good meal.
First, close 80%, pocket the bulk. Keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection; if it continues to drop, let the profit run, and if it rebounds, don’t give back the gains.
The market is waited out, profits are held onto. Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking.
For friends who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing shorts risks getting slapped back by a rebound. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify immediately. If you miss it, don’t chase; there will be more opportunities later.
$SOL $SNDK $BERA I didn't make much judgment, just held on a bit longer, didn't expect it to really pay off.
Just after lunch when I checked the market, there was obvious resistance above BERA, a strong bull trap, no one took the bait going up, so I signaled a short entry at an opening price of 0.2485.
In the afternoon it directly dropped to 0.2209, a return of +222.93%, really awesome, nailed the timing.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection, if it continues to drop let the profits run, brothers watch your profits.
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. For uncertain stocks, a glance is clarity, buying a lot is foolishness. Now is not the time to rush, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak, I will promptly signal the next round, waiting for good news.
$DOGE $ADA BTC vs ETH: a paradox in market structure. ETH rallied 70% in Q3 vs BTC's 42%, yet ETH's order book depth is only 35–45% of BTC down from 60% a year ago. BTC depth grew ~50% to $29M bid / $37M ask. ETH holds $13–14M. Price says one story liquidity says another.
$BTC $ETH You lean hawkish on September FOMC minutes tonight and will first guard against short-term pullback BTC ETH — I lean same after what we saw. *What really matters not whether rate hike tonight — September hike already implemented, minutes truly affect how many within Fed support further tightening and how serious inflation concerns are:* Exactly. Market already knows pause October low expectation, but disagreement whether inflation sufficiently under control you noted earlier — energy, tariffs, A$BTC Recently, the BTC trend actually reminds me of 2020 😂
In January 2020, when COVID-19 started spreading, BTC was still around 7K; in February it surged to 10K, and in March, global panic caused it to crash directly from 8K down to over 4K.
But the truly outrageous part came afterward.
By December 2020, BTC was already approaching 30K; by April 2021, it even surged past 60K.
So now, seeing the suspected pneumonic plague incident in Russia, I don’t immediately treat it as "the pandemic is here."
Plus, recently, a US government-associated wallet transferred 833.6 BTC into Coinbase Prime, worth about 71.6 million USD. Note, this does not mean it has been sold yet.
But I have a bold thought:
Could this transfer actually be a "bait" to scare the market?
Everyone is watching the selling pressure closely; if it really crashes, it might actually give the bulls a more comfortable position.
So right now, I’m neither fully out nor heavily invested.
Lightly long, and waiting for the market to give answers with the rest of the funds.
If the 2020 script repeats, the truly painful part might not be this drop now.
$BTC
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $ZEC Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety.
Yesterday afternoon, ZEC was still stubbornly pushing up there. Watching the market, the volume didn’t keep up, and no one was supporting the rise, so I casually opened a short on ZEC. At that time, I just said: obvious resistance above, weak rebound, don’t rush to catch the dip.
As a result, it went down all the way, giving the answer. Short entered at 1,328.29, now at 1,304.45, floating profit +89.32%. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is really sweet.
The market waits to be timed, profits are held to be realized.
First close 80%, pocket the main part. Move the stop loss to the cost price for the remaining 20%, if it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, it won’t give back the gains.
Now is not the time to rush, chasing shorts easily gets caught on the mountainside by a rebound. I will notify immediately when the next signal comes.
$DOGE $LAB $ETH
ETH trading volume is close to BTC's—does this indicate increased attraction or risk rotation?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 2536—2691.6 USDT, change -4.01%, trading volume approximately 535.54 million USDT.
With similar trading scales, ETH's window decline is larger, indicating that trading activity and price support are not moving in the same direction. Large volumes may also occur during position reductions and stop-loss executions, so this cannot be considered a definite net capital inflow.
If volume remains high while lows continue to drop, prioritize seller pressure; if prices stabilize and perform stronger during the next BTC pullback, then increase confidence in improved price support.📊 TOKEN2049 Eve: Traders Lost Over $4 Million in Their Sleep
▸ At 4:30 AM on October 7, trader Frogman's two wallets in Singapore were emptied, losing over $4 million
▸ Tokens like BP, MarsCoin, Cash Cat were swapped for ETH, BNB, SOL, then laundered through Privacy Cash and Chainflip
▸ Losses spanned multiple chains; analysis suggests it was not a single authorization error but a compromise of the mnemonic phrase or the device itself
💡 Conference season is hackers' "hunting season": lots of people, connecting to unfamiliar networks, devices left unattended—every step is a risk. Important assets should be stored separately, cold and hot wallets separated, and daily use wallets protected by AI risk alerts to guard the first gate—Cat Wallet’s approach is to provide this alert before signing.
#walletsecurity #TOKEN2049 #Web3security Big brother Maji has already started reducing his positions, so where exactly is ETH's bottom?
This time, big brother Maji almost blew himself up.
I just checked his latest holdings: he currently has 37,925 ETH long positions with 25x leverage, valued at $97.49 million, with an unrealized loss of $2.94 million.
Compared to the previous 39,030 ETH, he has reduced by 1,105 ETH.
Looking at the market, ETH dropped to $2,544, falling 5.58% within 24 hours, with a total liquidation of $573 million across the network, of which ETH alone accounts for $251 million.
But what surprised me most was not the reduction in ETH positions, but that he suddenly increased his BTC long positions from 17 to 306! With 40x leverage, the position is valued at $25.37 million, currently with an unrealized loss of $116,900.
The previously held HYPE and PUMP long positions are no longer in the holdings list.
ETF funds are even more worth noting: ETH has seen outflows of $408 million over 6 consecutive days, while BTC still had an inflow of $119 million on October 6.
What does this indicate? At least from the ETF data, BTC is currently more favored by capital than ETH.
I am now focusing on ETH at $2,500.
If it doesn't hold, leveraged long positions below may continue to be under pressure.
Even big holders like Maji know to reduce positions first to control risk, so ordinary people have even less reason to rush to catch the bottom.
The market comes every day, but the principal is limited, so capital preservation comes first. $UNI's low levels are starting to attract attention, but cheapness can never replace evidence of a bottom.
I break it down into two scenarios: A, breaking through 8.247, confirming a short-term structure; B, falling below 7.692, invalidating the original judgment, with the next observation point shifting to 7.692.
Current price is 7.872, 24-hour change -3.56%; 1-hour and 4-hour trends are weak, with volume about 0.35 times the average of the last 20 bars.
No preset answers, just watching which condition happens first. Do you think scenario A or B is more likely to occur first?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull Talk.$BTC liquidations hit $410M, but that doesn’t mean bears have won.
Most of the wipeout came from longs; shorts were barely touched. Now short sellers are starting to get squeezed too.
The key question is whether volume can support the rebound. If not, this bounce may fade quickly.
Watch volume, not just liquidation numbers. 👀
#BTC #Bitcoin
#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch
#BTCWhalePressureEases
#SolanaStocksTop4.4B In less than two weeks, three different addresses, each dormant for over 4 years, each just transferred out 4,500 BTC.
Lookonchain detected that the third one appeared this morning: address bc1q4h transferred out 4,500 BTC after being silent for more than 4 years, worth about $376 million. The first two were bc1qln on September 25 (about $381 million) and bc1qd6 on September 28 (about $379 million).
Together, the three batches total 13,500 BTC, which is about $1.12 billion at the time of writing. The same amount, the same dormancy period, it looks like the same party is moving coins in batches, but there is no on-chain evidence linking the three addresses yet. So far, only transfers out have been seen; it’s not confirmed that they went to exchanges, and transferring out does not equal selling.
At the time of writing, BTC on OKX is about $82,922, down about 1.2% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 82,753.
4,500 BTC per batch, three batches already moved, do you think a fourth will appear, or will it stop here?
$BTC $ETH daily chart has already weakened, the 4H bearish trend remains unchanged, but the 1H short-term has started to recover, so don't blindly short near 2570 today.
What's the current situation with ETH?
- Looking at the daily big picture: it's not as strong anymore, a bit soft.
- Looking at 4 hours: bears are still in control, no change.
- Looking at 1 hour: short-term is catching a breath and recovering.
So don't do this today:
When you see a drop, don't impulsively short near 2570. ❌
A slight rise today doesn't mean "wow, the trend has reversed,"
it's just a technical pause and correction within a bearish market.
In the next 1–2 weeks, the overall trend is still bearish, don't be fooled by small rebounds.
How to trade more comfortably?
ETH strategy:
- Wait for a rebound to 2620–2640 before considering shorting
- Set stop loss at 2660
- Take profit around 2550–2530
Now the key point 👇
2530 is the real dividing line today.
- If 2530 holds: it can still consolidate and rebound
- If 2530 breaks down: 2500 won't hold, 2450 might open directly 📉
In plain language:
"Don't rush to short now, waiting for a rebound to short is smoother; once 2530 breaks, don't cling to the fight."#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $SNDK looks like a classic crowd trap. 👀
The numbers are telling: only 39.59% of longs and 42.22% of shorts are profitable. Both sides are getting chopped up.
Out of 442 long traders, 267 are losing. On the short side, 171 of 296 are underwater.
But the bigger clue? Longs are about 1.5× the number of shorts, with 260+ longs holding roughly $65M in positions.
That’s a huge pool of liquidity.
Crypto rule #1: don’t blindly follow the crowd.
#DailyOrbit Conclusion first: $RAY held at $2.0, and on October 7th, a big bullish candle pushed it directly to 2.47, a single-day gain of +13%.
This is not a random oversold rebound.
Looking at the 4H chart: the candle on the evening of October 7th had a trading volume of $55 million — usually at this time it's at most $5 million. The volume is 10 times the usual.
Volume speaks the most honestly: the support level is confirmed by large trading volume, it's not "still wants to fall," but "buyers are willing here."
Solana DeFi's TVL is still there, and Raydium's position as a leading DEX remains unchanged. If $2.0 holds, this could be a mid-term bottom structure.
How many more times do you think $RAY can hold at the $2.0 level? $RAY Overall account looks pretty good today holding longs BTC SOL ETH all full 20X leverage still profitable — in this $190M liquidation slaughter day, that's survival win. *Your positions:* - *BTC entry 83,395 current 83,407 unrealized 117U* just near cost line holding to observe. Key support below 82,500 as long as doesn't break no big issues upside target 86,700 first — exactly. 83k floor you mentioned earlier, if breaks → 81k next, but 82,500 is your stop line good. Tonight 2am minutes will deci