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$SNDK
It still has to be SanDisk, last night it surged 100 points straight up.
I knew you had it in you! Although it pulled back afterward, just look at Hynix in the storage sector, it jumped 20 points right at the US market open. No wonder so many people like playing SanDisk, it moves big and fast, never dawdling with you.
Once the storage sector sentiment recovers, funds start flowing back, and SanDisk, being the most elastic target, reacts fastest to even the slightest stir. Plus, it had fallen deeply earlier, the selling pressure has mostly been released, so even a little buying can push it up.
But it still couldn't break through 1740 by 2 AM, that level is indeed a bit weak. It was originally just a correction within a downtrend; failing to break through, it continued to fall afterward.
Last night, how many long position brothers got out of the red, and how many short position brothers got liquidated? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The "leveraged betting contracts" business on the Arbitrum chain has been especially booming recently
In September alone, it handled $65.1 billion in trading volume, setting a new historical high
The entire third quarter also saw $132 billion in volume
This is the second-best quarterly performance in history
This indicates that Arbitrum (Ethereum's Layer 2 network) is evolving from an ordinary L2 into an important battlefield for on-chain derivatives, especially perpetual contracts
Although overall it still can't match chains like Hyperliquid that specialize in perps (perps are leveraged contracts that can be held indefinitely)
Its growth rate remains impressive
For us, this is a clear signal
The more active the on-chain trading, the more funds and traders are using Arbitrum for leveraged trading
But high trading volume does not necessarily mean the token $ARB will rise
It mainly reflects that this ecosystem is getting stronger in the derivatives sectorOn October 7, Micron $MU Taiwan Taoyuan Union officially obtained the right to strike.
In this vote, there were 1,994 votes in favor, with an approval rate as high as 99.1%.
The union demands the establishment of a long-term profit-sharing system, targeting 15% of operating profit, and stated that it does not rule out taking surprise strikes.
From October 8 to 9, Micron $MUU is about to hold a board meeting, and whether labor negotiations can make progress has become a focus of attention.$SOL is approaching the previous low of 112.51, can it hold this time?
Core conclusion: SOL continues to hit new lows in the correction, with the price approaching 112.51, the core low point where this rally started. The bearish trend continues, and the mid-term support level is about to face a critical test; SKDJ is nearing a deeply oversold zone, downward momentum is gradually releasing, and the trend is fully anchored to BTC, with high elasticity characteristics continuing to amplify the adjustment range.
Key price levels
• Short-term resistance: 116-117 (the recently broken support platform, now turned into resistance, the first resistance level on the rebound)
• Strong resistance: 118-119 (the lower edge of the previous consolidation range, a concentrated area of trapped positions, strong resistance on the rebound)
• Short-term support: 114 (intraday low, short-term sentiment support)
• Core support/mid-term lifeline: 112.51 (the low point where this rally started, the watershed for judging the trend nature)
In a gradual downtrend, blind bottom-fishing is not recommended; there are lower lows below the current low in the downtrend. A true stabilization signal requires simultaneously meeting: sustained volume expansion, price stabilizing above the 117 resistance level, and BTC stabilizing synchronously. Before this, the weak pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse.
⚠️Virtual currencies are not legally protected domestically; market information is for sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.Conclusion: Stop lumping "stagflation" all together.📉 After the minutes, the real focus isn't the direction, but the identity split among the three assets.
🥇 $XAUT: No longer just a pure safe haven, but a liquidity tool. With service sector prices surging and employment disappointing, it should have risen as a safe haven, but it broke down. When dollars are scarce, gold serves as collateral, first sold to get cash and cover holes. It has become an ATM.
🟠 $BTC: Increasingly like an institutional hedge tool. Whale sell pressure has stopped, ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive weeks, institutions are buying with real money. It falls, but has a strong bottom, with funds buying the dip. It is used to hedge dollar credit risk.
🔷 $ETH: A risk exposure tool. ETFs continue to flow out, staking yields lag behind US Treasuries, and the ecosystem lacks breakthroughs. The steadier BTC is, the more it looks like a drained ATM; if BTC drops further, ETH is very likely to be hit hard.
The three are no longer at the same table. After the minutes are released, watch whether the identity split continues to deepen.👀
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC Bitcoin/Ethereum have been declining since the early session with weak rebounds, showing an overall bearish trend and obvious resistance above. The previous secondary highs at 87000 and 2780 indeed formed a double top pattern on the daily chart, confirming a secondary peak. The subsequent major trend remains bearish, though there will be some short-term rebounds. On the 4-hour chart, there was a sharp decline forming a large bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating strong selling pressure but also some buying support below. The price has broken multiple recent key support levels, hitting a new phase low and showing a weak overall pattern.
Technically, both DIF and DEA are running below the zero line, with DIF continuously diverging downward. The MACD histogram is negative and expanding, indicating very strong bearish momentum. The volume increase during the decline confirms the strong intervention of bears and validates the current downtrend. Attention should be paid to important short-term supports at 82500 and 2540 during the evening and early morning; if these break, the market will likely fall further.
Evening trading suggestions: Buy Bitcoin near 83000 to 83500, target around 84800; buy Ethereum near 2550 to 2570, target around 2630; stop loss at 82500 and 2530 respectively. #September FOMC minutes release imminent, will rate hikes continue? #BTC whale selling pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks #OKXNOW: ushering in a new era of 24/7 markets 📂 20U Real Trading Record 101
💰 Principal: 20U
📉 Profit on this trade: Floating profit
✅ Total earnings: About +100U
📌 Current position: $ONE short position
After closing the $UNITREE short position, opened a short position on ONE.
Why choose ONE? The fundamentals are already very clear.
On August 11, an attacker exploited a cross-shard receipt verification vulnerability to mint over 3 trillion unauthorized ONE tokens, about 26% of the total supply. The team then executed a chain rollback, permanently deleting over 100,000 transactions.
But that was just the trigger. In early September, the team officially proposed shutting down the Layer-1 mainnet that had been operating for 7 years, migrating ONE to Ethereum as an ERC-20 token, and pivoting to AI video direction.
In plain language: this chain is no longer active.
Validators who stop their nodes before September 10 can receive compensation. The released tokens will be used for the "AI video remix economy." The multi-signature treasury, liquidity pools, and on-chain applications cannot be migrated, leaving only an airdrop mapping.
There is a short-term risk of a short squeeze, which I have also noticed.
So the timing of opening positions is very important. I did not enter at the strongest rebound but waited for a stagnation signal after the price rose before taking action. Stop loss was set properly, not fighting the main force head-on.
The chain is gone, and after the token migrates to Ethereum, it changes from a native asset to an ERC-20 with zero practical value. The narrative shifts from a public chain to an AI video PPT. The fundamentals are already very clear $BTC 83500 is not support; it is the cost line of the last batch of people.
At the price of 83590, it dropped 2.24%.
Last time, I was also watching a moving average line, thinking it would definitely hold.
Where did this money come from:
Before the 87000 rebound, whales sold more than 30,000 $BTC.
ETF weekly net inflow dropped from 2.39 billion to 51 million.
How this number is calculated:
83500 is the 21-day moving average; 84000 to 85000 was originally considered support.
Breaking below this range, the next target is directly 82500.
I bought at the support back then, but it turned out the support was just where others were selling.
Whether it holds depends on whether someone is willing to take over, not where the line is drawn.
Lines are drawn, but the money is real cash.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC JUP
JUP hit a 30-day high, with very active capital. However, after reaching the high, it pulled back, and the current price 0.3734 has fallen below the previous high of 0.3774. Near the new high, stop-loss orders are often placed; after they are triggered, a reversal indicates that selling pressure above remains. Let's see if it can climb back above.
Key support level: 0.3523; resistance level: 0.3777,
If it effectively breaks through 0.3777, the price is expected to rise further. $BTC is still heading down. In the past 24 hours, long positions were liquidated for $50.24 million, while short positions only saw $16.59 million liquidated. There were 1,600 short liquidations compared to 856 long liquidations, but the amounts are reversed. The liquidated positions were large single long positions, while the shorts were just small fragmented orders being swept. This round of decline is leveraged longs being squeezed out. The options open interest put/call ratio is 0.93, and the traded put/call ratio has reached 1.07, indicating new trades today lean towards buying protection. DVOL is only 38.6, showing no panic pricing; this is not yet a clean liquidation. There is still leverage in the $7.96 billion contract open interest longs to be squeezed. The RSI on the chart is 28, which can be read as oversold and due for a rebound, but weakness can persist for a long time during deleveraging, which does not change my view. The current price is very close to the intraday low of 82,150. I judge that this low will not hold and a new low will be made. If the price climbs back above 84,362.3 and holds, this judgment will be invalidated. $BTC open interest keeps rising even as price falls, meaning leverage is building rather than fully flushing out.
This looks less like panic liquidation and more like bulls and bears fighting for control.
Funding is mixed, so there’s no clear one-sided positioning yet.
I’m staying cautious on the bullish thesis. If price spikes into resistance and fails to break through, that’s where I’ll look for a short.
No breakout, no rush.
#OKX25BInvestment #SP500FirstCloseOver7800 BTC and ETH in USDT are red: -0.46% and -0.08%. But the ETH/BTC pair is green, +0.35%.
My bots survived this and even made one sale on each. The drawdown on them is less than on the coins themselves.
Here's the point. Bots don't work on the dollar price, but on the ETH to BTC ratio. While the dollar fluctuates, the pair lives its own life. And it is on its fluctuations that profit in BTC drips.
Spot. No leverage. No liquidation. Patience.
With light endorphins in the morning. Alex
#ETHBTC #gridbot #OKX #спот #алготрейдинг This is the last dance as a short seller!
$BTC crashed from 86686 to 82480.
$SOL fell below 115.
$ETH rolled down from 2724 to 2554.
The entire market is collapsing.
In my account, there are only 63U left.
2.5 ETH, 100x short position, full margin.
Opened at 2567, current price 2555.
Unrealized profit +45%, 29U.
Liquidation price is stubbornly stuck at 2630.
Only 75 dollars away from liquidation.
This is my last bullet.
Before, if I got liquidated, I could find a way to recover.
This time, if I get liquidated, not a single cent will be left.
BTC is still falling.
SOL's rebound is weak.
ETH just needs to drop a little more.
No rebound.
Absolutely, absolutely no rebound.
Let me turn this 63U into hundreds of U.
Either blow me up and let me completely exit this market.
Or push it down and let me catch my last breath.
Life or death depends on this 75 dollars.$ETH current price is 2558.41, and there are only three possible trends on the chart now.
First: A pullback to 2532 holds steady, capital enters for a round of corrective rebound, pushing up to challenge the 2660 resistance level. This is a suitable position for medium to long-term long positions, meaning to consider building longs around 2530 after stabilization.
Second: A brief small rebound above 2620 attracts a batch of bottom-fishing funds rushing in, then gets smashed down again by bears. This rebound high is a very good medium to long-term shorting zone, with the 2650-2670 area suitable for short positions.
Third: Directly breaking below the key support at 2532 with volume, panic selling emerges, dropping down to around 2460. In this case, don’t rush to bottom-fish; wait for new stop-fall signals.
Considering the current hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve have not dissipated, I lean more towards the second scenario, where the rebound easily turns into a bull trap.
#ETH three scenario analysis
$ETH $BTCThis is big news, everyone. Sui just announced on X that Samsung Wallet will integrate Sui, supporting native USDC of $SUI on 82 million Galaxy devices in the US. What's the highlight? Gas-free transactions. Transferring USDC on the Sui network will incur no network fees. Honestly: this is the kind of news the market usually only reacts to after the price has moved significantly. Samsung is not a small partner. The figure of 82 million devices is impressive. And the gas-free stablecoin transfer is a real step forward toward October 8, 2026
Market tone: The short-term trend is a weak consolidation at a low level after a breakdown, leaning bearish, but it is not yet a daily-level bearish reversal. After the 4-hour top pattern broke below 83800 and closed without recovering, yesterday's daily candle was the largest bearish candle within the range, closing at the lowest point since September 21; however, after last night's low of 82700, there was no new low for about ten hours, and when a new low was made, open interest decreased. The 4-hour Vegas short channel held on the first retest. The expectation is to move sideways at a low level with limited rebound strength, possibly testing 82700 again. If the 4-hour candle closes back above 83800, this view needs to be revised, with resistance seen at 84200-85100; if the 4-hour candle closes below 83100, it will test 82700 and 82500. Only if the daily candle closes below 82300 will it turn bearish.
BTC key critical level: 83800
BTC daily bullish-bearish dividing line: 82300
Resistance levels above: 84400, 85100, 87000
Support levels below: 83100, 82700, 82500【On-Chain Trading Update｜xyz:XYZ100】
Monitored address 0x8afa opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: 31,049.8 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 207,313.29 USD
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned over 12,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +0.77% According to Forbes, the UK tax authority HMRC is pushing to expand its investigative powers over crypto assets, proposing to allow tax authorities to directly obtain customer information from crypto asset service providers and update inspection rules for software and electronic records. UK crypto tax software company Recap warns that the proposed regulations define service providers too broadly, potentially covering non-custodial wallet software, blockchain explorers, hardware wallet manufacturers, and tax software providers. Since Bitcoin transaction records are publicly transparent, once investors' names, addresses, and tax identities are linked to on-chain wallet addresses, their long-term asset activity records may be exposed, increasing risks of data leaks, extortion, and even personal attacks. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC BTC is steadily declining, probing 82500, with the mid-term lifeline facing a test
Core conclusion: BTC continues to decline, officially testing 82556, the core support level at the start of this rally. The short-term bearish trend persists, and the mid-term trend faces a critical test of survival; SKDJ maintains a bearish alignment, selling pressure is gradually easing, and the strength of support at this level will directly determine the nature of this round of adjustment.
Key price levels
• Short-term resistance: 83000-83500 (the recently broken integer level, now the first resistance level for the rebound)
• Strong resistance: 84000 integer level (the consolidation platform in this downtrend, a concentrated area of trapped positions; holding above this confirms the start of recovery)
• Core support/mid-term lifeline: 82500-82556 (the low point at the start of this rally, the watershed for judging the nature of the adjustment)
• Strong support: 80588 (previous historical dense trading low, a strong support zone after deep adjustment)
⚠️Virtual currencies are not legally protected domestically; market information is for sharing only and does not constitute investment advice 【Exchange｜OKX Secures Strategic Investments from Circle, Ripple, and Others, Valued at $25 Billion】
On October 6, OKX official announcement: Building on the ICE round, OKX received additional strategic investments from Circle, QRT, Ripple, and Standard Chartered SC Ventures, with a pre-investment valuation of $25 billion; the amount was not disclosed. On the same day, they advanced a tokenized US stock joint venture with ICE (about 63 US stocks, 24/7 trading, stablecoin settlement).
OKB is approximately 128.93 USDT (Beijing 14:37, OKX), down about 4.0% in 24 hours; BTC is about $82,491 (Coinbase). See attached chart for 48-hour trend.
My view: This is a platform narrative upgrade, not a short-term bullish signal; since the financing amount was not disclosed, do not interpret the valuation as a pump signal. OKB is weakening along with the broader market, watch the 130 level first.
This does not constitute investment advice. #BTC whale sell pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks $SOL
This quarter it outperformed Bitcoin by 18 points but underperformed Ethereum by 11 points.
▪️ Same benchmark, same window (June 30 to September 30): it +60.3%, Bitcoin +42.6%, Ethereum +70.9%
▪️ Converted to two relative price ratios: its ratio to Bitcoin this quarter +12.4%, to Ethereum −6.1% — in one quarter, the two lines moved in opposite directions
▪️ Now 1 SOL exchanges for 0.0014 Bitcoin, 0.044 Ethereum — both readings fall at the third decimal place, a 1% relative change can push them around
▪️ And its trading volume is only one-third of the September rally period — relative readings are strengthening, participation is waning
The divergence is not about how fast it runs this quarter, but that it delivered two directions facing two opponents — the one it won is not the one it aims to replace.
I side with the bulls on direction — structure is up, moving averages all rising. But it must first close above 121.19 before talking about 126.43; if it falls back to 113.88, this round of relative readings is invalidated, looking down to 110.71.Sisters, $ZEC has dropped to 1237, and I went long on it!
First, let's look at the latest news: the NU7 upgrade testnet has been activated.
Zcash's NU7 upgrade officially activated on the testnet on October 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds directly to 25 seconds, while cutting the issuance per block to one-third, keeping the daily new supply basically unchanged. Community voting support rate reached 99.9%, and the halving mechanism was retained with 98.9% of votes. The mainnet target launch is November 5, with a final decision on October 20 based on testnet results. This is a solid fundamental positive, not just sentiment-driven speculation.
Now looking at the price trend, it has fallen to a key support level.
ZEC dropped from a high of 1699 to 1237, a 27% correction. Analyst Samson Mow publicly warned that the $22 billion market cap is overvalued, and Grayscale ETF saw a net outflow of $93 million in one week—these are real bearish factors. But after the price hit the 1237-1300 range, the downtrend clearly slowed. $1233 is a decisive watershed; as long as the daily close holds above it, the bullish structure remains.
The long-short ratio is no longer one-sided.
The whole network 24-hour long-short ratio is 0.9743, Binance account long-short ratio is 0.6375, and large account position long-short ratio is 0.9451. Bears do have a slight advantage, but it’s no longer the extreme 80% to 20% state from before. The previous short squeeze rally has ended, and now long and short forces are balanced, so there isn’t enough fuel for a continued crash.
There are two technical signals worth noting.
First, the 50-day EMA is still firmly above the 200-day EMA, so the mid-term trend structure is intact. Second, the Bollinger Bands have significantly narrowed, compressing the price range of the last 30 candles to below 5%. Such low volatility compression often appears before a major directional expansion.
My strategy: enter a light long position near 1237, with a stop loss set below 1233. The first target is a rebound to 1350, and if broken, then 1420. This time, set a good stop loss, take a bite and run, absolutely no repeating the previous stubborn hold mistake!
Sisters, after a 27% drop, how much do you think $ZEC can rebound this time?
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 MINA dropped nearly 11%, with trading volume expanding to 5.8 times the median of the past 8 days, and the perpetual funding rate falling to -0.1822%, yet contract open interest increased by about 6% over 24 hours.
As of 14:05 Beijing time, OKEx spot price was around $0.09071, with a 24-hour high of $0.10698 and low of $0.08976, daily volatility about 19.2%, and trading volume approximately $5.66 million.
Price decline and deepening negative funding rate, but open interest did not simultaneously exit, indicating that this is not just spot selling pressure; directional divergence is also continuing to accumulate on the leverage side. My judgment is that short-term shorts are actively paying, but a negative funding rate does not automatically mean a rebound.
The easiest misjudgment is to rush to bottom-fish when seeing an extremely low funding rate. If the price breaks below $0.08976 and open interest remains above about $3 million, new positions may continue to expand the downside; if it reclaims the mid-range around $0.0984, while open interest falls back and the funding rate converges toward neutral, then it indicates that crowding is easing.
$MINA $BTC is about to close the daily candle soon
What should be done for short-term trading tomorrow?
First, let's look at Bitcoin reaching a very critical position. On 9.21, there was a volume breakout above this blue neckline.
However, after the breakout, there was no strong high-level support; instead, it chose to retest on 9.28.
The retest held, but the subsequent rally did not surpass the high point of 9.21.
Today it started retesting again, so this time we need to watch out for a breakdown risk.
If today closes with a real bearish candle at the blue support level,
continuing to hold a short position tomorrow for short-term profit should not be a big problem.
Of course, trading is never 100% certain.
If you open a short position, today's opening price must be used as the stop-loss point. $BTC BTC current price 82550, adjusted nearly 5000 points from the high of 87385
2-hour level price runs below all EMAs, MACD green bars expanding, medium-term bearish, Bollinger middle band 83852 has turned into strong resistance
15-minute level temporarily supported at lower band 82440, MACD green bars narrowing, short-term technical rebound demand exists, but upper 82800—83000 layers of moving averages suppress
Strategy: no chasing orders, no bottom guessing: light long positions at 82400—82450, stop loss 82150, target 82800—83000; short on rebound at 83400—83500 with resistance, stop loss 83900, target 82800, if broken look for 82400
The market is not short of opportunities, but short of capital to survive to the next opportunity
Follow Liying, one chart a day to clearly explain a position, discipline is more valuable than prediction #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 AI starts handling tasks for enterprises, but who can prove it hasn't overstepped its authority?
Mysten Labs announced that it is collaborating with Google Cloud to develop VAA, providing verifiable evidence for the authorization and execution processes of AI agents. Detailed records are kept in enterprise-controlled cloud storage, with related proofs linked through Walrus and Sui.
This is a noteworthy direction for Web3 applications: helping real businesses establish trust and boundaries of responsibility. The project is still under development, and future outcomes depend on enterprise deployment and actual results. Long-term investment requires patience and verification; focusing on demand, delivery, and risk is more solid than chasing a flashy narrative.
Source: @Mysten_Labs, 2026-10-06 (Singapore Time). #AI #Web3 #LongTermValue This volatile coin smashed down from 1697, dropping 450 points, without even a decent rebound in between, completely crushing all the “I think it’s bottomed out” hopes. I scanned the order book, there are sparse buy orders around 1240-1250, but very scattered; sell orders are stacked up, volume is low, price just can’t rise, bulls have completely lost their edge. The next support below is 1200-1220; if that breaks, we’re looking at 1150 or even 1100.$ZEC markets are full of various trends, but not every trend is worth acting on. Distinguishing real trading opportunities from one's own subjective illusions is a skill traders need to develop.
Illusion is when I subjectively think it will fall, so I enter a short position; opportunity is when the market shows concrete signals and a shift in bullish and bearish forces, prompting me to act.
$ZEC surged to 1319.11, the bullish momentum exhausted, and the market gave a clear reversal signal. This is why I entered a 50x short position. Currently, the floating profit is 318.05%, with a mark price of 1235.2.
Without these market signals, relying solely on guesswork—even if the trend happens to go the right way—is just luck and not replicable.
1319.11 is the benchmark to test whether the opportunity still exists. When this level is broken, the opportunity disappears, and the trade must end. Real trading relies on signals, not illusions. $BTC $ETH #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ The world's first person, Elon Musk, a trillionaire tycoon, can he return to the peak?
I have a lot of say on this topic. Long $SPCX at $210, held hard until $104, then went to zero. Now back around $170, I've clearly ridden this roller coaster.
Musk wants to reclaim the richest man throne, betting on this wave of AI computing power. $40 billion financing to buy Nvidia chips, Apollo leading, FCC approved 15,000 direct-to-phone satellites. The pie is drawn very big, Starship 15 flight is also coming soon.
But the market is not stupid. CDS pricing default probability about 15%, five-year CDS soared to 197 basis points hitting a record high, S&P directly points to its pricing close to junk level. Musk lost $21 billion in one day. Daily RSI is already 70, the previous high of 176 is a solid resistance.
My judgment: the long-term story is very attractive, but short-term valuation is already overextended. Chasing now is like licking blood from a knife edge. Wait for a pullback to 150-155 before considering scaling in, don't even touch contracts. $SPCX $DOGE $ETH is deeply oversold, is ETH about to hit bottom and rebound?
Key conclusion: After ETH broke down on the daily chart, it entered a low-level weak consolidation phase. The short-term bearish trend is established, representing a corrective stage in the downtrend; SKDJ is deeply oversold, indicating a technical rebound demand, but the mid-term adjustment pattern has already opened, lacking independent fundamental support, with the price movement fully anchored to BTC, making the overall weak pattern hard to change.
1. Short-term trend (1-2 trading days)
Most likely to maintain a weak consolidation between 2530-2640. The deep oversold condition will trigger a technical rebound, but the rebound height and duration are very limited, with strong resistance expected in the 2600-2640 range. ETH lacks independent fundamental positive factors and fully follows BTC’s fluctuations. The rebound strength is weaker than platform tokens, and the downside elasticity is greater than BTC.
2. Mid-term trend (3-5 trading days)
The mid-term trend is deeply tied to BTC’s core support at 82500:
• If BTC holds steady around 82500 and gradually stabilizes, ETH will follow with a consolidation bottoming process, digesting selling pressure and repairing indicators, then initiating a corrective rebound;
• If BTC effectively breaks below the core support and opens a downtrend space, ETH will likely simultaneously test the 2500 integer level, further expanding the mid-term adjustment scale.
3. Necessary conditions for trend reversal
Oversold conditions alone cannot trigger a trend reversal. A true stabilization and reversal require all of the following: sustained volume expansion + holding above the 2640 resistance level + BTC stabilizing simultaneously. None can be missing.
⚠️Cryptocurrency is not legally protected domestically; market information is for informational sharing only and does not constitute investment advice #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The inability to rise is never accidental. Last night, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes released a hawkish signal, strengthening the US dollar and US Treasury yields, putting collective pressure on risk assets, but the market reaction was very muted. The real issue is: long retail traders are too crowded. BTC and ETH contract longs are clustered, with over $700 million liquidated in 24 hours, more than 90% of which are long positions. Under this structure, the main players have no intention to push the market up.
ETH was smashed from 2725 down to 2536, now shrinking around 2569, unable to even rebound to 2600. All moving averages are pressing overhead, bullish candles are weak, and volume keeps shrinking. This indicates no one is willing to buy with real money; most longs left are just talk.
My short position entered at 2689, currently floating with about 45% profit, no action for now. In the short term, watch if 2540 can hold; if broken, look to 2520; on the rebound, focus on resistance at 2600–2620.
Don't chase longs with high leverage during low-volume rebounds; this kind of market is most prone to stop-loss hunting back and forth.
Do you think ETH will break 2520 next or hold and rebound? Let's discuss in the comments.
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extreme risk; position sizing and stop-loss must be prioritized.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 Everyone says $XRP exchange balances have plummeted and a short squeeze is imminent, but if you flip through the ledger, it's an accounting illusion.
1. Tracking 699 publicly labeled wallets (equivalent to 21.98 billion tokens) shows a weekly drop of only 26.5 million tokens, 0.13%. The seemingly shocking "monthly decrease of 1.63 billion tokens" mainly comes from Uphold's own custody migration, moving coins from old wallets to new wallets that aren't tracked, with no change in exchange control. The so-called "supply squeeze" is just this migration, not buying pressure.
2. ETFs aren't as stable as they seem. The overnight single-day net inflow chart sounds good, but Bitwise alone added 11 million, Franklin withdrew 4.1 million, Canary withdrew 3.3 million, while Grayscale and 21Shares remained unchanged. The inflow from the previous week dropped from 75 million to just over 4 million, shrinking by over 90%.
3. Pricing power has shifted to leverage: perpetual contract volume is 19.7 times that of spot. In this structure, price moves have little to do with fundamentals and much more to do with position liquidations.
The 1.40 level below is a confluence of the 50-day moving average, trendline, and psychological barrier—this is the watershed deciding between a "pullback" or a "trend reversal."
The listing is postponed until next Monday, so sentiment needs to hold up a bit longer. 10月7日晚，美联储9月FOMC纪要发布后，美股、欧股、黄金、白银和加密货币集体跳水。比特币在20分钟内从85318美元跌至83551美元，跌幅约2%；以太坊跌近5%，XRP跌超6%，Solana跌超4%。过去24小时全球12.4万人爆仓，总额突破7亿美元，其中九成以上是多单。LVRG Research的Dan Khus说得很准：这不是下行趋势的开始，而是一次"杠杆清洗"——仓位过于集中的追涨资金被一锅端。 19名官员全票支持9月加息25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，以及多数官员认为年底前再加息一次可能是合适的。CME数据显示，市场对10月加息预期仅19.4%，对12月预期为64.1%；而点阵图显示18名官员中16人支持年内再加一次。 $5.364% 10年期美债收益率盘中穿透5.364%，创2002年以来新高；30年期升至5.715%，英国30年期突破6%。美元指数重新站上102，现货黄金跌破4100美元（跌超1%），白银失守60美元（跌2.5%）。 无风险收益达到5.36%时，持有零息资产的机会成本同步抬升。高盛测算，10年期收益率每升1个百分点，企业融资成本平均增加0.8%。 Another coin in the sol ecosystem took off today
$MET
$MET
It rose from around $0.30 to a peak of about $0.45, a stage increase of nearly 50%, doubling within the month, with trading volume expanding nearly 4 times
Checked the news, mainly the DLMM Pro announced by Meteora on October 6
The token issuance project can set initial liquidity, opening method, and fees by itself, and the fees can be high at first then lower
LP positions are NFT-ized, supporting merging, locking$LINK has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things.
$LINK is down 3.64% in 24 hours, currently priced at 13.116. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 22 and 28 respectively. Oversold conditions can trigger rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop; a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Set emotions aside first; the information given by the structure is very specific. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 13.3704, currently weak; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 13.6528, also currently weak. The short-term cycle exposes changes, while the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of crowding; when they conflict, beware of repeated fluctuations. You cannot just pick the side that benefits you.
The task for the stronger side is clear: first hold above the 1-hour resistance at 13.815, then observe whether the 4-hour resistance near 14.326 can still maintain support. If it only briefly breaks through intraday and quickly returns to the range, the so-called breakout lacks the crucial second half.
What I care about more is not guessing the next candlestick, but which condition will force me to change my view. Judgments without invalidation conditions are just emotions expressed differently. Write your view as conditions so you know where you were wrong if you are.
Which signal would you rather wait for to judge: is oversold enough to change the rhythm, or must you wait for the structure to stop making new lows? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.$ETH ⚠️ The downside may not be finished yet.
After a broader market pullback, recovery usually takes more than a day or two. Right now, ETH’s rebound looks weak, while hourly volume remains notably low.
This doesn’t look like a confirmed bottom yet. Instead, it could be a relief bounce that attracts dip buyers before another leg lower.
On the positioning side, Brother Maji is holding 39,025 ETH in long positions, worth roughly $99.8M, with liquidation sitting at $2,501.38.
#DailyOrbit #frenchhill urges lame-duck session to pass the CLARITY Act
French Hill urges the lame-duck session to pass the CLARITY Act
Another noteworthy signal has emerged in U.S. crypto regulation.
On October 7, French Hill, Chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, once again called for advancing the CLARITY Act, hoping to make progress during the lame-duck session after the November midterm elections.
Why is this important?
First, the core issues of U.S. crypto regulation have not been fully resolved.
The CLARITY Act seeks to further clarify the regulatory division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC over digital asset markets, providing a clearer legal framework for trading platforms and crypto projects.
Second, the Senate has previously stalled the advancement process.
On September 15, a related procedural motion failed to pass with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, falling short of the 60-vote threshold.
Hill’s renewed call indicates that supporters have not given up on pushing legislation before the end of the year.
Third, calls for action do not mean the bill will soon pass.
There remain partisan disagreements on conflicts of interest, consumer protection, and other issues. The lame-duck session has limited time, and whether a compromise can be reached is key.
My view:
If the bill makes substantive progress, its greatest significance is not an immediate price surge for any token, but that the future regulatory rules for the U.S. crypto market may become clearer.
$BTC $ETH $OKB The worst-case scenario I feared has happened. ZEC's current price logic is: ETF funds are continuously withdrawing, leveraged longs are being liquidated nonstop, and the NU7 positive has yet to be realized. My 50x fully leveraged long position has almost zero margin for error. At the current price of about $1340, any 2% downward move could halve my principal.
The NU7 upgrade is on November 5, but my liquidation price is $879. This means before the real positive news arrives, if the market.I was really caught off guard by an old South African man
News from October 7th: one of South Africa's largest banks, FNB, directly launched the function to buy SOL in their own app, with an absurdly low threshold—starting at just 10 rand, which converts to about 0.55 USD, and you can buy 24/7. My cousin is studying in Cape Town, and he called me yesterday saying even the barber downstairs is researching this.
In plain language: people there buy SOL as easily as depositing money into their bank account, no need to register on an exchange, no need to remember any mnemonic phrases, just open the bank app and tap twice, done.
Honestly, I’m a bit jealous. Back when I first bought $SOL, I struggled all night, my card was flagged twice by risk control, and I received over a dozen verification codes. Now people just buy it casually while getting a haircut.
Saying I’m not afraid would be a lie—the lower the threshold, the more people come in, and the more the volatility will wear you down. But then I thought, isn’t this the day I’ve been waiting for?
So I’m not moving, continuing my monthly dollar-cost averaging, buying on payday, no matter what. Others enter at 0.55, my cost is higher, I accept it.The decision on October 20 and the mainnet activation on November 5 are two potential triggers for sharp volatility. If the upgrade goes smoothly, there might be a brief emotional catalyst; but if the market has already priced in the expectation or if any technical issues arise, it could turn into a "sell the news" event.The only substantial positive for ZEC recently is the NU7 network upgrade. NU7 was activated on the testnet on October 4. On October 20, the development team will decide the mainnet activation height based on test results, targeting November 5. This upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling transaction speed, and introduce a fee recovery mechanism.
However, there is huge uncertainty between the "positive expectation" and "price realization." At the same time, ZEC's futures market structure is very risky. During the rise from 480 to 1698, long positions became extremely crowded. Now that the price has dropped, these high-leverage longs have become "fuel" for the decline. Data shows that after ZEC fell below 1400 and 1350, longs around $1333 were liquidated for $76.59 million, 2.5 times the shorts. This indicates the drop is not a balanced battle between bulls and bears but a one-sided slaughter Mainstream currencies collectively retraced, and the market has entered a period of volatile consolidation.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes released a hawkish signal, causing market concerns about the possibility of another rate hike within the year, putting pressure on risk assets and serving as an external trigger for this round of crypto market pullback.
The 24-hour network-wide contract liquidation data is out: over 110,000 accounts liquidated, with total liquidation exceeding $634 million, a large number of longs were swept, releasing short-term panic sentiment.
US spot BTC ETF inflows have noticeably cooled, with insufficient incremental buying, limiting the rebound's height; whale addresses show divergence, with some large holders reducing positions at highs while others are buying on dips.
Some whales are simultaneously positioning in BTC, ETH, and SOL contracts, with a $26.5 million position currently floating a profit of nearly $590,000; another large holder repurchased 75% of their BTC position at the 82789 price level, betting on a short-term rebound.
This round of decline is partly due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations suppressing risk assets, and partly due to a large amount of profit-taking concentrated from previous gains.
Currently, it is a phase of volatile consolidation after the decline, with the 4-hour moving average still exerting pressure. Low-level support only indicates a slowdown in selling pressure, not a trend reversal; the market frequently switches between inducing longs and shorts, with frequent stop-loss sweeps.
Do not blindly increase short positions or chase longs to bet on a reversal. Wait for key support and resistance zones before choosing opportunities to position. Always set stop-loss orders in advance, participate lightly, and do not stubbornly hold against the trend. Those trapped should not blindly add positions to average down; seize rebound windows to gradually reduce holdings.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 The most direct evidence is institutions exiting. Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF (ZCSH) just went from being the darling of the listing week to a massive redemption queue, with a net outflow of $93.56 million in a single week. Assets under management dropped from the peak to $751 million, with $26.93 million withdrawn on October 2 alone. A fund that once held nearly 3.5% of ZEC's supply has now turned from buying pressure into selling pressure. This scale of capital shift is not something the market.$ETH is hovering around $2,562, down 0.49%, with roughly $417M in volume.
Selling pressure appears to be easing, but I still want confirmation before getting aggressive. 👀
The key zone I’m watching is $2,530–$2,555. If buyers defend this area and ETH reclaims $2,600 with strong volume, the long setup becomes more interesting.
🎯 Entry: $2,535–$2,555
✅ Confirmation: $2,600 + volume
🛑 SL: $2,495
TP1: $2,640
TP2: $2,690
TP3: $2,750
TP4: $2,830
📊 R:R: ~1:3.
#DailyOrbit #BTCETFFlowParadox ETH dropped to 2446, and this roughly $252 million long position is about to be liquidated.
Lookonchain detected that a certain whale holds 98,089 ETH longs, nominally about $252.3 million, with liquidation prices set at 2446.48 and 2424.47. At the time of writing, ETH on OKX is around 2571, down about 1.8% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 2536.
Self-calculation: The current price is about $125 (about 4.9%) away from the first liquidation line, and about $147 from the second. Compared to the approximately 98,100 ETH longs reported by Residue yesterday, the scale is almost the same, and the direction is also long.
I will watch one point: if it really crashes to 2446, it may not only liquidate this one; there are many other longs around that might get triggered as well.
Will ETH first hold above 2536, or will it first test 2446 to blow up this $252 million?
Follow if you want to see the follow-up
$ETH Holding a 50x fully leveraged long position on ZEC, I stayed glued to the screen all night, uncertain if this rebound can finally break even. Honestly, I deeply understand the excitement of "almost breaking even," but given ZEC's current situation, I have to pour cold water on myself.
What exactly supported the rebound a few days ago?
The price pulled back from the low to above 1340. My first reaction was "can it keep rising?" But looking at the data calmly, this looks more like a technical$SUI
SUI's decline is smaller than SOL's; can defensive advantages and absolute risk coexist?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 1.1032—1.1682 USDT, change -2.24%, trading volume approximately 21.07 million USDT.
In the same window, SUI's pullback is less than SOL's, and the quote still retains upper half range space, providing clues of relative strength. However, it is still declining itself; relatively better does not mean the principal is not damaged, nor does it prove net inflow of new funds.
If the next market downturn still retains the advantage, then increase the defensive judgment; if the advantage disappears and the low point is lost, first withdraw the explanation of relative support.$BTC dropped sharply yesterday with a large bearish candle, causing over 124,000 long positions to be liquidated, amounting to as much as 400 million USD. Currently, there is no sign of a bottom yet, which is indeed tough for the bulls. However, chasing shorts at this level is not advisable. Since the opportunity to short from the high was missed, and the price has already fallen, chasing now would be chasing a rebound only to sell into a decline. The fish head, fish back, and fish belly—the prime parts—have all been eaten; only the fish tail remains, which has more bones and less meat, so it's not worth it...
Looking at BTC now, the support below is around the previous low near 82,500. Recently, it has been oscillating between 87,000 and 82,500. The resistance test at 87,000 failed, leading to a pullback. Now it faces the critical support at 82,500. On the daily K-line, although the Bollinger Bands' middle and lower bands are opening upward, the upper band is opening downward. Yesterday's large bearish candle pierced through the middle band. Both KDJ and RSI have turned downward, and MACD's bearish momentum continues to expand. Currently, there is indeed no sign of a bottom on the chart. On the 4-hour chart, not even a small bullish candle has appeared; nine consecutive bearish candles press down. Occasional small rebounds on the hourly chart lack strength and fail to break through the middle band.
However, looking at the bigger picture on the weekly K-line, the previous three consecutive bullish candles pushed the price up along the upper band, which is now stretched upward, leaving limited room above, hence the current pullback from the high. The monthly K-line shows three consecutive bullish candles, with the rebound facing resistance at the middle band. The larger timeframes face dual resistance, leading to a deep pullback. But this rebound, as the second wave in the second wave of an upward Elliott wave, has not been structurally broken. From the high of 124,000, the third wave down led to a bottom at 57,700, followed by a rebound. The second wave's high corresponds to around 96,000, and the extreme bottom of this pullback lies between 80,000 and 78,000!
Using historical pullback ranges as reference, BTC rose from 64,500 to a high of 87,300, with two pullbacks in between: the first from 81,500 down to 76,100, a 5,400-point pullback; the second from 82,200 down to 74,900, a 7,300-point pullback. For this cycle's high at 87,300, applying similar pullback ranges suggests support between 81,900 and 80,000. To put it simply, the support lows below are at these levels and are factual. If the market experiences a small pullback and continues sideways, the area near 82,500 may hold. But if the initial jobless claims tonight cause another drop, the bottom fishing zone will be around 80,000 to 78,000. The upside space is sufficient; the previous high at 87,000 is enough to reduce some positions, and looking further up to 96,000.
For those stuck in long positions, manage your position size. Replenish positions around 80,000 to 78,000 once more. If your position is large, do not move it; safety first. If you feel you cannot hold, you can cut losses on part of your position. If you expect the market to continue falling, then switch to opening shorts.
For those without long positions, it's easier to operate. Build long positions gradually around 82,500, 80,000, and 78,000, with targets at 85,000, 87,000, 90,000, and 96,000.
$ETH Build ETH long positions gradually around 2,530, 2,450, and 2,380, with targets at [REDACTED-GW-BankCard_cn] #September FOMC minutes released, most officials favor another rate hike #ETF still flowing in, why is BTC falling? #Gold ETF sets record inflows, high interest rates still suppress gold prices HYPE buyback has added another water pipe to this well
On October 3rd, Hyperliquid completed its first transfer: about 90% of the interest generated from the USDC reserves deposited by platform users will be regularly funneled into the aid fund to buy HYPE. Payments are made every 30 days, and this was the first one.
What does this mean? Previously, buybacks relied solely on fees, so during bearish markets, buybacks shrank. Now it's different; the money you deposit on the platform earns interest, and that interest is also used for buybacks. It's like the buyback machine has gone from a single engine to a dual engine.
Honestly, I was a bit emo last week, watching the market grind back and forth, even distracted during a call with my dad who asked three times if I had eaten dinner. But when I saw this post, I suddenly perked up—while others worry about declining income, they are figuring out how to make buybacks more aggressive. $HYPE has already cumulatively bought back and burned over 40 million tokens, and this is just the beginning.
I'm planning to add a bit more to my position over the weekend, not much, just treating it as a dollar-cost averaging for myself.
By the way, I've already noted next month's payment date in my memo; checking the accounts then will be more interesting than watching K-line charts.