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The US ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4 in August, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. The index is 5.4 points above the 50 expansion-contraction line and reached its highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The September policy decision may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data.The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. This index is 5.4 points above the 50-point expansion threshold and marks the highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth rate, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The policy decision in September may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 55.4, higher than the expected 54.3 and up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, exceeding expectations by 1.1 points. This index is 5.4 points above the 50-point expansion threshold and marks the highest level since April, indicating that the service sector remains in expansion territory with momentum warming compared to June and July. For the market, this weakens the certainty of a policy shift based solely on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI readings were 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4 respectively, with the August figure ending the narrow fluctuations around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be directly translated into output growth rate, but the upward shift in points indicates that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, US private sector job additions in August were only 38,000, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. The strengthening of the Services PMI alongside slowing employment means the Federal Reserve continues to face a combination of growth resilience and labor market cooling at a 3.75% policy rate. The policy decision in September may rely more heavily on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农The US August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4, above the expected 54.3, up 1.3 points from July's 54.1, and 1.1 points above the forecast. This index was 5.4 points above the expansion-contraction line of 50, marking the highest level since April, indicating that services remain in expansion territory and momentum is warming compared to June and July. For the market, this has weakened the certainty of policy shifts solely based on cooling employment.
Since April, the ISM Services PMI has been 53.6, 54.5, 54.0, 54.1, and 55.4, ending the narrow range around 54 since June. The improvement in the diffusion index cannot be translated into output growth, but the level has shifted upward, indicating that service sector business activity remains resilient.
Employment signals are inconsistent. According to ADP data, U.S. private sector employment added only 38,000 in August, the weakest increase since January and below expectations. A strong services PMI and slowing employment mean the Fed continues to face a combination of growth resilience and a cooling labor market at the 3.75% policy rate, making September policy decisions more dependent on Friday's nonfarm payrolls and subsequent inflation data. #FOMC前最后一组数据: This Friday's nonfarm payrollsThe first shovel hit, and instead of unearthing pottery shards, it struck the skeleton of a modern commercial giant. Uber slashed 10% of its own flesh and blood, roughly 3,300 "employee remains" scattered everywhere, with management bones directly cut by 20%. 🏛️ Having been in this industry for years, I can tell at a glance this is not a business crisis, but a voluntary sacrifice during a period of civilization transition.
Looking back at the history of human transportation, from coachmen to taxis, every capacity revolution has been a blood sacrifice. Uber's CEO is currently playing the role more like a priest at the end of a dynasty, trying to exchange the "slimming ritual" of streamlining bureaucracy for a ticket to the "New World" of autonomous driving. What he cuts is not people, but the redundant layers on the old map marked "Here be dragons."
I stare at the words "autonomous future," which resemble an oracle bone fragment just unearthed from the strata—obscure yet revealing a certain inevitable divination. The Robotaxi territory is expanding like the roads of ancient Rome, but Uber wants to be the sole "toll collector" at the checkpoint. This vision is grand, but history repeatedly warns us that road builders often die on the day the road is completed, because detours are laziness encoded in human genes.
From the long-term investor's archaeological perspective, this is a typical "strata squeeze" event. The fossil fuel of profits is drying up, and valuation wants to achieve a beautiful "sequence reset." Merely cutting expenses as a stopgap "strata reinforcement" is far from enough. If the Robotaxi carriage runs too slowly, then the margin saved now is just a few rusty copper coins picked up from the ruins, unable to support the magnificent imagination of a "mobility gateway."
What concerns me more personally is whether this small team merger move resembles historical monarchs attempting centralization? Cutting down vassal states, consolidating elite forces, all to concentrate power for great deeds. But the other side of history is that once a power vacuum appears, ambitious figures rise from the ruins. If Uber cannot always occupy the innermost lane in this marathon, then today's "layoff edict" may one day be engraved on the monument of failure.
The skeleton of this commercial giant is being reshaped, and what seeps from the bone cracks is not blood but capital anxiety. As for whether it can be reborn like an ancient Egyptian pharaoh, relying on a cost-compressing pyramid structure to gain eternal life in the realm of autonomous driving, the answer is only written in the strata of the future. And I am only responsible for recording this moment's tremor as a line of blood-stained inscription.
When the tide of profits recedes, who is swimming naked is clear at a glance. 🚗💨Clear out, clear out, all short positions in hand have been closed.
Friday's non-farm payroll is the last set of data before the FOMC. Bank of America says this is just an "appetizer," the real decision on whether to raise rates in September depends on the CPI on September 11. Walsh has redefined the rules of the game — as long as employment does not deteriorate significantly, inflation is the core variable. #FOMC last set of data: this Friday's non-farm payroll
ADP has weakened for three consecutive months, with only 38,000 added in August, but the probability of a rate hike remains above 60%. Employment is declining, interest rates are not coming down, and the market has mostly priced this in.
Look for higher points to continue buying; the direction needs to change.
$BTC is above 77,000, $ETH is around 2,390. Before the non-farm payroll, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, waiting for the data to land. If the non-farm payroll is significantly weak and the probability of a rate hike drops, $BTC and $ETH will bounce. Even if the non-farm payroll is okay, the CPI is the real main course; the current position has already priced in a lot of negative factors in advance. SOL retraces to the hundred-dollar mark, causing market sentiment to inevitably tighten, but what truly deserves attention might be the technical transformation at the end of the month 🌙. Influenced by the US-Iran tensions and oil prices breaking through $95, US Treasury yields rose to around 4.8%, leading to a rapid withdrawal of funds from high-volatility assets. SOL's single-day drop exceeded 3%, with volatility significantly greater than BTC, indicating the fragility of risk appetite under macro pressure.
However, around the $100 level, I tend to be a bit more calm. On September 28, Solana's Alpenglow upgrade plan will officially activate. This upgrade will restructure the consensus mechanism, significantly improving transaction finality speed, and is regarded as one of the most core technical iterations of the year. Meanwhile, Bitwise's SOL staking ETF product BSOL has surpassed $1 billion in assets under management, showing that long-term capital is quietly positioning.
The short-term direction is still dominated by BTC, but the real catalyst may be at the end of the month. Price pullbacks do not equal the end of the narrative; the dual advancement of technical upgrades and compliant products is the variable worth observing for SOL going forward. Risk warning: macro volatility and the actual effects of the upgrade carry uncertainties; please rationally assess your own risk tolerance. $SOLBTC is back to 76,000, but altcoins are playing a "battle royale"? Have you noticed that this market rally isn't a broad surge, but rather the market quietly picking winners? To start with the phase assessment, I think this is more like a "risk appetite ladder climbing" game—not a broad rally chasing highs, nor a panic-driven shakeout period, but a phase where smart money is selecting targets at its own pace. BTC is firmly holding as the "anchor" around 76,900, ETH is acting as a "transit station" near 2,390. What's really interesting is that money is starting to flow down the risk curve, seeking "elastic assets" that can deliver excess returns. Look at those with standout performance: CP up 147%, T up 48%, EGLD up 11.5%, KITE up 10.5%. Doesn't this look like someone is ticking off a checklist? Not all coins get selected; this is more like a "selective risk appetite" rather than the usual "altcoin season in full bloom." But what deserves more attention is the other side: ACE and ROBO are being mercilessly sold off by capital. This gives us an important hint: the current market is not a flood-like broad rally, but a phase that really tests coin selection skills and timing. My understanding is that capital is looking for targets with better "risk-adjusted returns," not just chasing price gains. Projects with clear narratives, actual ecosystem progress, or unique mechanism designs are more likely to be favored; whereas those thatSEC rewrites rules for the first time in 50 years, officially making blockchain Wall Street's "official ledger"
On September 1, the SEC dropped a bombshell—a 421-page proposal that comprehensively rewrites the transfer agent rules that have been in place since the 1970s.
The core message is simple: blockchain can become the "official record" of securities ownership.
Transfer agents are the backbone of the U.S. securities market, responsible for maintaining shareholder registers, handling stock transfers, and dividends. Previously based on paper and early digital systems, the SEC now officially incorporates blockchain, tokenized securities, and AI into the rules.
The SEC Chair put it plainly: "Let the rules reflect how transfer agents currently operate, including the use of blockchain technology."
Wall Street is accelerating its "integration" of blockchain. ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, is collaborating with tZERO to build tokenized securities infrastructure. Companies like Securitize and tZERO have registered as digital transfer agents. Traditional financial giants are proactively transforming blockchain into new tools rather than being disrupted by it.
The endgame signal is clear: blockchain speeds up processes and automates smart contracts, but ownership and compliance remain in the hands of traditional finance.
RWA and tokenization sectors are long-term beneficiaries, but implementation may only happen after a 60-day public comment period.
My judgment: this move is bigger than imagined. Wall Street hasn’t been disrupted; it has put blockchain in its own suit.
#SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注 #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
BTC suddenly pulled back to 79,400, related to two things.
Just checked the market, BTC went straight from around 77,000 during the day to above 79,400. From the news perspective, mainly two things coincided.
The first is geopolitics. The US-Iran conflict escalated again, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claiming missile and drone strikes on multiple US military bases. Oil prices hit $95, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.8%. Normally, in such a macro environment, risk assets should be under pressure, but funds are buying $BTC as a "digital gold" safe-haven asset.
The second is institutions. Yesterday, spot $BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $217 million, and corporate treasuries like Strategy and Strive are continuously increasing their holdings. Besides geopolitical hedging, institutional allocation demand is also providing buying support. Moreover, BTC has strong chip support around 76,600, and when it briefly dropped there, it was bought back.
The real directional choice will be at 8:30 PM tomorrow with the nonfarm payrolls. Let's first see if it can hold above 79,000. Rate hike expectations roller coaster, market repeatedly shaken by news In recent days, crypto circle friends can clearly feel how quickly market sentiment shifts are unbelievably fast. The probability of a rate hike in September has staged a roller-coaster rally in just a few days. After Jackson Hole's speech, the probability of a rate hike surged sharply; ADP small nonfarm payroll data was unexpected, causing the probability to briefly drop; Following Middle East conflicts pushing oil prices higher, rate hike expectations resurfaced, tugging back and forth. After all, the rate surged from 36% all the way up to around 66%, ADP fell back to around 60%, oil prices strengthened and then rebounded again, with no stable fix. The root cause lies in two completely contradictory questions facing the Federal Reserve. On one hand, employment data began to weaken. ADP added only 38,000 jobs, the lowest since January this year. With cooling jobs, there shouldn't be any further rate hikes, which signals a leaning toward easing. But on the other hand, geopolitical conflicts have disrupted the energy market, pushing oil prices above $90. When oil prices rise, inflationary pressures return. Even if jobs are poor and inflation is rising, the Fed's rate hike option remains on the table. So an interesting phenomenon emerges: a single economic data or a geopolitical news piece can quickly rewrite market bets on rate hikes. When rate hike expectations shift, US Treasury yields fluctuate, and the BTC market is swayed back and forth. This is why, despite ADP's positive news, the BTC market hasn't surged quickly. The employment boost is quickly offset by inflation concerns from oil prices. Now, all the variables have to wait until Friday night's nonfarm payrollsToday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who oversees corporate capital, stated that we are already seeing signs of inflation cooling, and he will vote to keep interest rates unchanged. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell together, while gold and U.S. stocks rose accordingly.
In my view, this basically preempted the potential positive impact of weaker employment data expected tomorrow.
On the contrary, since the DXY and U.S. Treasury yields have already dropped today, the market's expectations for tomorrow's employment data have been lowered significantly. As long as the data is not worse than expected, it is very likely to be interpreted by the market as "better than feared," which could then drive a rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
Therefore, I believe there is a possibility that gold is forming a top head-and-shoulders pattern here. Considering that after the employment data there are still CPI and PPI reports, gold can be shorted from a high point today, but I probably won't do that because the funding cost for gold is ridiculously high.
Market observation
What I see currently is:
Hyperscalers are outperforming, while chip stocks are taking a hit.
We all know that for the index, chips are more important than anything else. So as long as chip stocks continue to fall, no matter how happily other tech sectors rise, the major indices will find it hard to truly strengthen.
I am now watching for a short opportunity on AMD.
AMD is about to break below a trendline. Once the break is confirmed, I believe it will continue downward to fill the next gap, with a target of roughly another -19% decline.US July CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, in line with expectations
Although the current inflation level remains significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the monthly inflation data for June and July have been moderate for two consecutive months. This indicates that the inflation surge driven by energy prices in the first half of the year is cooling down; however, prices still fluctuate, and changes in the Middle East situation will continue to bring uncertainty $BTC #Current price $105, don't chase. My judgment:
**The OKB logic is real, but position sizing must be correct.** 21 million tokens locked + contract removing the minting function, this is the toughest deflation model among platform tokens; but it fundamentally differs from BTC—BTC has no issuer or operator, OKB is backed by a single exchange, with regulation, operation, and X Layer ecosystem all tied to OKX alone. Also, if your core holdings already include BNB, buying OKB means double exposure to platform tokens, so be careful not to duplicate your risk exposure.
**If you really want to buy, treat it as a satellite position, not core ammunition:**
- First tier: $95-100, small position ¥500-1000 to test
- Second tier: $80-85, buy more if it dips
- Don't rush on timing, wait for the September 16-17 FOMC and BOJ shocks; when the market dips, OKB will likely follow down, making it more comfortable to buy then than now
- Keep total investment under ¥2000; your main ammunition of 34,000 U should be reserved for BTC ≤ $75,700, ETH ≤ $2,300, SOL ≤ $85—those three are the main course
After the burn last August, it rose from $46 to $258 then fell back to $105. The positive news has been priced in for a year; now is a valuation digestion period. There is no shortage of entry opportunities, but patience is needed. $OKB #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
Tomorrow, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August Nonfarm Payroll report at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on September 4 (Friday), corresponding to 8:30 PM Beijing Time on September 4 (Friday).
U.S. Stocks: Stronger-than-expected data may raise rate hike expectations, suppressing high-valuation tech stocks; another negative growth could trigger recession concerns.
Dollar: Stronger-than-expected data supports the dollar; significantly below 50,000 or turning negative would weaken rate hike bets and pressure the dollar.
Gold: Hot employment data suppresses gold prices (rate hike expectations + stronger dollar), while cold employment data provides room for a rebound.
This Friday's Nonfarm Payroll is the last employment data before the September FOMC (September 15-16), its importance is unquestionable. But unless there is an extreme downside surprise, this report is more likely to affect the marginal pricing of rate hike probabilities rather than directly deciding whether to hike rates in September. The real policy "verdict" will wait for the CPI data on September 11. #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 $SNDK $SPCX $BTC $BTC’s rebound looks convincing on the surface, but derivatives data paints a more cautious picture. 🧐
After dipping below $77K, Bitcoin has recovered toward $79K. However, open interest fell roughly 3.8% from August 21–31, dropping from 331,100 BTC to 318,600 BTC, while long funding costs continued to rise.
Price is recovering, but leverage is being reduced. This doesn’t look like a rally driven by aggressive new positioning—it’s a more cautious move.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops **Everyone talks about deflation, but first check if the money printer is still running**
Some ask, isn’t OKB also capped at 21 million? Yes, last August OKX burned 65.26 million tokens in one go, permanently locking the total supply at 21 million. Even more drastic, the contract upgrade removed the minting and burning functions entirely — the project team can’t change it anymore, and it’s verifiable on-chain. Now look at a certain teacher’s TRX, boasting annual burns totaling 7.1 billion tokens, a staggering number, but TRX has no total supply cap at all. The minting valve remains firmly in their hands, burning and printing simultaneously, so deflation is just talk. Remember one criterion: how much is burned doesn’t matter; what matters is whether new tokens can still be minted. Only when the money printer is smashed can it be called deflation; burning while printing is just marketing. $OKB $BTC recently dropped to a solid bottom at 76,000, and today it’s slowly climbing back to 79,000. It seems the buyers holding the "iron bottom" below are quite dedicated.
Capital flow:
The $BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $101 million yesterday, truly a "money magnet." In contrast, ETFs for Ethereum, SOL, and XRP are still experiencing slight outflows; right now, capital only recognizes $BTC as the trusted old brand.
Macro outlook:
Initial jobless claims rose to 206,000, and U.S. Treasury yields have also dipped. The September rate hike expectation dropped from 63% to 50%. Although oil prices stubbornly remain above $90 and inflation—the "old troublemaker"—hasn’t gone away, at least the market caught a breather today.
Future scenario:
My current scenario still sees a "box range" oscillation between 78,000 and 80,000. As long as $BTC can firmly hold the "city gate" at 80,000, the market will truly show strength. Tomorrow brings the "big boss" nonfarm payroll data, so the real storm might still be ahead. For today, let’s play it safe and not rush into excitement. CORE's hard fork this time: Is it one coin, or will it become two coins?
A hard fork itself ≠ necessarily creating a second coin; whether it splits depends on whether all validators on the network upgrade to the new version of the software.
Scenario 1: Ideal state (what the project team hopes to achieve, one chain with only 1 CORE)
The vast majority of validators, nodes, and exchanges upgrade to the new code.
- After the fork, there is only one chain, still only one CORE token, no new coins will appear out of thin air.
- Starting from the fork height, the new rules take effect, fixing the reward bug and stopping the excessive issuance of tokens.
- The CORE tokens mined excessively due to the past bug remain in circulation; the fork will not destroy or reclaim them (officially confirmed no rollback of history).
- Your coin quantity remains unchanged; only the network rules are fixed. Ethereum's London and Shanghai upgrades are such hard forks, maintaining a single chain with no new coins.
Scenario 2: Worst case (chain splits, resulting in two sets of tokens)
Some validators refuse to upgrade to the new version and continue running the old buggy code, causing the chain to split into two independent chains:
1. New chain (project team's main chain): bug-fixed new version, token still called CORE.
2. Old chain (run by nodes refusing to upgrade): continues with the old buggy rules, allowing continued excessive mining, generating another set of tokens (commonly called old-CORE in the market).
👉 Once split, at the snapshot moment of the fork, the amount of CORE in your wallet exists equally on both chains, effectively giving you a new set of tokens. Each coin has its own price and market, and they are not interchangeable.
This is similar to the 2016 Ethereum DAO event, which split into ETH (new chain) + ETC (old chain), two independent tokens.
Key distinction: coins on exchanges vs. in your own wallet
1. Coins on exchanges (OKX, Gate)
After the split, the choice is up to the exchange:
- Exchanges may only support the project team's new chain CORE and not distribute the old chain tokens to you;
- Or they may support both chains, crediting your account with both tokens;
During the fork window, exchanges will likely temporarily suspend deposits and withdrawals to prevent asset confusion.
2. Coins in your own private key wallet
Once the chain splits, your private key controls tokens on both chains, automatically giving you two sets of assets, but operations and transfers become complicated and there is a risk of replay attacks.
Clarifications on several key misunderstandings about this CORE event
1. ❌ "Hard fork will airdrop me new coins"
Only if the network permanently splits will a second coin appear; if the entire network upgrades uniformly, there will be only one coin, no airdrop.
2. ❌ "The coins mined excessively due to the bug before the fork will disappear or be destroyed"
The official approach is forward-only upgrades with no rollback. The fork only stops further excessive issuance; the historically mined excess CORE will not be automatically erased by the fork, so the selling pressure risk remains.
3. ❌ "Any hard fork inevitably splits into two"
Many planned hard forks on public chains are smooth single-chain upgrades; splits are a risk outcome, not an inherent result of forking.
For ordinary holders, watch these 3 signals before and after the fork
1. Whether the vast majority of validators have completed the new version upgrade (the core indicator to judge if a split will occur);
2. Announcements from major exchanges: whether deposits and withdrawals are suspended during the fork, and which chain the exchange supports if a split occurs;
3. Official incident review report: how many excess CORE tokens were mined due to the bug.
In short:
If all network nodes upgrade, after the fork there will still be only 1 CORE token; if some validators refuse to upgrade and the network splits, two independent CORE tokens will appear. The fork itself will not destroy the historically excess tokens already issued.$DOGE : The moment I started taking Dogecoin seriously was when I realized its UTXO model, shared with Bitcoin, offers surprisingly robust security and simple scripting. Combined with its inflationary supply and low fees, it's practical for small, frequent transfers. Most meme coins lack any technical foundation, but Doge has a decade of uptime. That longevity and straightforward design make it more resilient than people assume.#AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Robinhood Chain suddenly exploded, and ARB finally caught its own wave this time
In the past, when people mentioned Robinhood, they thought of US stock trading. Now that it has launched its own chain, it has reignited the narrative around ARB
The latest data is somewhat exaggerated: Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours surged to about $1.89 billion, a new high since its launch. Pons even issued more than 24,000 tokens in a single day, indicating that the real trading activity on this chain is rapidly increasing
What’s more noteworthy is that this is not just a simple trading volume figure. On September 1, Robinhood Chain’s DEX trading volume had already reached about $1.595 billion, while the on-chain stablecoin scale was close to $800 million, showing that funds and transactions are gathering there
Robinhood Chain uses Arbitrum’s technology system, and the revenue generated by the chain will also bring income to the Arbitrum ecosystem according to related mechanisms. This is one of the important reasons why ARB has been reignited recently
My view is
What’s truly worth watching this time is not how much ARB has risen today, but whether Robinhood can turn this heat into long-term on-chain traffic
If later RWA, stock tokenization, and on-chain trading gradually form stable demand, ARB’s logic will no longer be just an old L2 token, but will start to have new ecosystem revenue expectations
But don’t rush to treat all trading volume as fundamentals just yet
Because currently, Meme and token issuance platforms contribute a lot to on-chain activity. Whether the heat can be sustained is the real test going forward
So I prefer to understand this wave of market activity as
Robinhood bringing in traffic, and ARB trying to turn that traffic into value
$ARB $CP $BTC
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 **Sun Yuchen teaches you to "think about divorce before marriage," which is most ironic when applied to buying coins**
Sun Yuchen says: Plan your divorce before getting married, agree on how to split up before partnering, decide how to divide shares and handle exits—say the unpleasant things upfront. The logic is sound; this is contract thinking—called stop-loss in trading, deciding how much loss to accept before opening a position. But the most ironic thing is that people who attend his classes then go buy TRX, effectively marrying someone who refuses to sign a prenuptial agreement: the whitepaper can be changed at will, tokens can be issued more at will, dumps never come with prior notice, and when it comes to divorce and dividing assets, you can't even get a foot in the door. What does a truly reliable partner look like? BTC—the prenuptial agreement is directly written into the code: a total supply of 21 million coins, issuance rules set in stone, even Satoshi Nakamoto can't change it himself. Finding a project is the same as finding a partner—don't just listen to what they say, see if their rules are set in stone.UNI 8 days +44%, funding rate at 0.0043%.
UNI 24h +8.81%, reported at 6.313 USDT, trading volume 76.64 million USD.
7 days +34.78%, 30 days +63.8%; from the close on 8/26 at 4.38, 8 trading days +44.13%, sitting at the 97.9% percentile of the 30-day range.
Yesterday's volume was 114 million USD, 4.19 times the 30-day average volume (27.25 million).
On the leverage side: funding 0.0043%/8h approximately zero, open interest only 155.2 million USD, long-short account ratio 1.38, 58% bullish.
Spot is pushing, leverage hasn't woken up—either the second rotation phase hasn't ignited, or the gains haven't been recognized by leveraged funds.
The opposing view reminds: Fear & Greed at 65 is already in the greed zone; the first push to the 30-day high of 6.38 will definitely face dual selling pressure from profit-taking and position unwinding; the 58% bullish crowding means a panic could trigger a stampede.
Two scenarios: high volume break above 6.38 → second rotation phase; low volume test at 6.38 → pullback to 5.637 to find support.
Directional decision: only trade the high volume break above 6.38; do not act on low volume tests at 6.38.
#UNI #DeFiCrypto treasuries are buying more and more crazily, while traditional capital is starting to ask: Are you still considered a company?
What I find truly interesting about this recent topic is not how much ETH BitMine has bought again, nor how much BTC Strategy has added.
It's a very subtle shift: before, everyone was desperately discussing "who holds the most coins," but now traditional capital is starting to look at it from the opposite angle—if you are a company and most of your value comes from the crypto assets you hold, should you be valued as a company or understood as a huge crypto asset position?
This is also the most noteworthy aspect of the current index eligibility controversy.
Crypto treasuries are actually reaching a very awkward yet crucial stage.
The more they can buy and dare to buy, the larger their asset size, and of course, the story becomes more attractive; but once they buy to a certain extent, the traditional financial system will start to think: sister, haven’t you gone too far?
So I actually think this is not simply negative news.
It precisely shows that crypto assets are moving from "companies telling stories" to something that truly needs to collide head-on with the traditional asset allocation system.
As for myself, after watching this unfold, I’m not going to bet on which treasury will ultimately pass the index test for now.
I’ll just buy some Bitcoin spot first.
Companies still have to take exams; Bitcoin and Ethereum don’t.
#加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 $BTC $ETH $BTC BTC is indeed undergoing a pullback, but has the capital really withdrawn?
BTC has returned to around 77,000, and the community sentiment is quite bearish. However, one detail is worth noting — while BTC ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, ETH ETFs have experienced consecutive days of net inflows.
This exactly confirms one judgment: this is not capital exiting the market, but a shift in positions.
BTC’s recent rally from the bottom has been significant, so profit-taking is perfectly normal. The key lies in where this money goes after leaving BTC — if it directly converts to fiat and exits, that would be a true bearish signal; but if it simply moves from BTC to ETH and other assets, it is essentially a redistribution of capital within the market, not a reduction in total volume.
ETH’s recent performance has been noticeably strong, with support around the $2,400 level exceeding expectations, which is the most direct evidence.
Therefore, it is clearly too early to declare the end of the market. A more logical scenario is that institutions are rebalancing their positions, gradually shifting the overweight portion from BTC to ETH. After all, ETH’s relative gains have lagged significantly this year, and the narrative of a catch-up rally is entirely plausible.
Going forward, just watch two signals: first, whether the scale of BTC ETF outflows begins to narrow, and second, whether ETH ETF inflows can continue to accelerate. As long as the capital remains in the market, this rally is not over; it’s just that the leading theme may have shifted from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
Pullbacks are not scary; understanding where the money flows is the most important thing to do right now. #FOMC Last Set of Data Before: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
All the finance classes you've heard before will tell you: Weak nonfarm data → Fed won't dare to raise rates → Gold and Bitcoin both rise.
But now the market clearly shows: The small nonfarm data exploded hot, the probability of a September rate hike directly surged to 67%, $BTC directly smashed through 77,000, gold fell all the way from the high of 4700 to 4300, the two "anti-inflation benchmarks" hyped for years, collectively collapsed before the official nonfarm release.
No warning, no extra buildup.
On the evening of September 3, US August ADP employment data was released, with new jobs nearly 100,000 more than market expectations, shattering everyone's previous "Fed will hold steady in September" predictions.
The market re-priced in less than 15 minutes: the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 4.798%, a new high since January 2025.
Then the market completely lost control.
Bitcoin plunged from the intraday high of $79,000, bottoming at $76,720; $127 million worth of crypto longs were liquidated within two hours, dragging down crypto concept stocks like MicroStrategy and Coinbase, all falling over 6%.
The three major US stock indexes simultaneously plunged, Dow down 0.79%, Nasdaq down 1.03%, risk appetite across the market hit rock bottom.
The most ironic scene: even gold couldn't hold up.
International spot gold closed down 2.48%, breaking below the $4300 mark; domestic Shanghai gold followed suit, AU9999 fell 2.73% intraday, and even offline gold shops that previously rushed to buy gold quietly adjusted retail gold prices down by nearly 100 yuan/gram.
Before the official nonfarm release, the two recognized "anti-inflation assets" collapsed together.
Everyone is asking: where did the safe-haven funds go?
The answer is obvious: all went to the dollar, all went to short-term US Treasuries. Now with nearly 5% risk-free returns from holding US Treasuries, who would want to hold non-yielding, 20% volatile gold and Bitcoin?
No one dares to openly say this transmission logic:
Hot nonfarm data → employment market resilience far exceeds expectations → oil price at $94 continues to push inflation higher → Fed not only hikes in September but hawkishly drags high rates longer → global liquidity directly retracts.
The "anti-inflation work is not done" phrase Powell said at Jackson Hole was once dismissed as rhetoric, but now the preheated nonfarm data gives him the strongest backing.
A 4.8% risk-free yield is on the table; Bitcoin's so-called "scarcity narrative" has no persuasive power against real cash interest.
Bitcoin has never been "digital gold," it is merely a barometer of Fed liquidity. When liquidity loosens, it rises with the tide; when liquidity tightens, it falls faster than anyone.
Some will argue: didn't BTC rise when nonfarm data was weak before?
That was because the market expected the Fed to soon ease and rescue the market; now the market prices in high rates lasting until mid-next year, possibly rising further. The same nonfarm data is bullish in a zero-rate easing environment but is a market-crushing nuclear bomb in today's high inflation and high rate environment.
The "nonfarm release must cause a rise" hype of the past two years was never a rule, just a collective illusion bred by a low-rate environment. When liquidity floods, even worthless coins can rise tenfold; that was never consensus, just too much money with nowhere to go.
Now the tide has receded to the ankles, and who is swimming naked is clear at a glance.
Look at the current market moves:
US Treasury yield breaks 4.8% → up
Dollar index rebounds → up
September rate hike probability hits 67% → up
BTC breaks below 77,000 → down
Gold falls to $4300 → down
Crypto concept stocks all crash 6%+ → down
The old joke "nonfarm must cause a rise" that has circulated in the crypto circle for years will most likely fail completely this time. In Bitcoin's 14-year candlestick chart, its price has never followed the "anti-inflation narrative"; every rise and fall essentially follows Fed liquidity.
Friday's nonfarm data is not a "bottom-fishing opportunity for gold and BTC," it is the last hammer smashing the old narrative.
This is not the first time, nor will it be the last.
$ETH BTC has pulled back, but has the money really left?
Brothers, BTC is back near 77K, and the group chat is full of pessimism. But there's an unusual phenomenon I wonder if you've noticed—BTC ETFs are seeing net outflows, while ETH ETFs have been attracting funds for several consecutive days.
This matches my previous judgment: it's not a retreat, it's a change of battlefield.
BTC's recent rise from the bottom has been fierce, so profit-taking is very normal. The key question is, where does this money go after leaving BTC? If it directly converts to USD and exits, that’s truly bearish; but if it just shifts to ETH and other assets, then essentially it’s an internal redistribution, not a shrinkage of total volume.
ETH has clearly become much stronger recently; the 2,400 level is holding steadier than expected, which is the best proof.
So my view is straightforward: it’s too early to conclude the market is over. A more reasonable scenario is that institutions are rebalancing their positions, moving some of BTC’s overweight allocation into ETH. After all, ETH’s relative gains this year have lagged, so a catch-up rally makes sense.
Going forward, just watch two signals: first, whether BTC ETF outflows narrow; second, whether ETH ETF inflows can continue to accelerate. As long as the funds stay in the market, this round isn’t over—it’s just that the main focus has shifted from BTC to ETH.
Brothers, don’t be scared by the pullback; the key is to see where the money is flowing.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 A few days ago, $OKB dropped steadily from around $120, and I didn't make any moves. When it fell to around $111, I started to feel tempted, but I still wanted to wait for $110, since that round number had held as support several times before.
The price touched $110 for the first time and quickly bounced back, so I bought one-third of my planned position at $111.3.
My position wasn't large, and my original plan was simple: hold if $110 holds, exit if it breaks.
After buying, OKB quickly rebounded above $112. At that moment, I felt I entered well and even started planning how to take profits in batches if it climbed back above $115. But the market didn't give me that chance; the price circled around $112 and then dropped back to $110.
When it fell to around $109, I initially placed a buy order to add to my position but canceled it after hesitating for a few minutes. The reason was straightforward: my original trading plan was to bet on $110 support, and now that support was broken, adding to the position would mean changing the rules on the fly. Recently, spot ETF funds have shown significant divergence, with differing views within institutions.
BTC ETF saw a large outflow in a single day followed by inflow the next day.
ETH ETF maintains continuous net inflows.
Funds are not withdrawing from the crypto market as a whole but are reallocating within sectors, with some institutions moving from BTC to ETH to capitalize on flexible market conditions.
Here is a common pitfall: ETF net inflows do not immediately translate to price increases.
Funds keep entering, but prices fail to break upward, indicating heavy selling pressure above; buying is continuously absorbed by selling, making chasing highs prone to short-term profit-taking.
BTC tends to be a long-term base allocation tool with mild fund fluctuations; ETH is a more elastic speculative asset with stronger upward momentum but also larger pullbacks during risk-off phases.
$BTC current price 78885.5, rapid short-term rally, support at 78075, previous high 78952
$ETH current price 2433, following BTC's rise, support at 2401
$SOL holds above the 100 mark.
The rally occurs on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, with short-term profits ready to be realized at any time.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 I looked at UNI after its pump and thought: "Okay, after such a movement, sooner or later someone will start taking profits." But today UNI is already around $5.7. And I was not interested in the drop itself. I started looking for who was selling. And I found one very interesting detail. On September 2, about 3.28 million UNI entered centralized exchanges. The next day, the token received a strong downward blow. Today, the picture has already changed — a small net outflow was recorded. Coincidence? Maybe. But when millions of tokens enter exchanges right in front of theNext, the tech world will experience three consecutive "Spring Festival Gala" events
September 7 Xiaomi launch event, September 9 Apple launch event, September 17 Huawei Full Connect Conference.
It seems like a series of new terminal products are debuting, but the real main theme is only one: chips.
Apple is betting on advanced process technology. The iPhone 18 Pro is expected to debut with the A20 Pro chip using TSMC's 2nm process, leveraging GAA transistors to further improve performance and energy efficiency.
Huawei chooses to compensate for process limitations with architecture. According to the previously announced Ascend roadmap, the Ascend 950 will use self-developed HBM, with interconnect bandwidth 2.5 times higher than the 910C. Limited by single-chip constraints, it seeks increments from storage, interconnect, and cluster architecture.
Xiaomi's focus is the Xuanjie 03. The market cares not only about new products but whether self-developed chips can continue to iterate and enter more core products.
The three companies have different routes but face the same problem: chips are becoming more expensive.
Manufacturers like China Resources Microelectronics and Infineon are raising prices intensively; costs for copper, wafer foundry, and packaging & testing are rising simultaneously; storage supply tightness may continue until 2027.
Price increases at terminals seem to happen at the counter but actually originate upstream.
New product launches will dominate the headlines, but chips determine the ceiling. Process breakthroughs, architectural innovation, and supply chain restructuring are the real main themes in the tech world for 2026
$xXIAOMI $xAAPL #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
$BTC's real make-or-break this week isn't Warsh, it's the nonfarm payrolls.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the key to determining BTC's next market move.
Recent employment data has been cooling down continuously:
JOLTS ↓
ADP ↓
Initial claims ↑
July nonfarm payrolls even decreased by 23,000, and previous months' data were significantly revised downward.
What does this mean?
The U.S. job market might be weaker than the market expects.
And what the market is most conflicted about now is:
Employment is cooling, but inflation hasn't fully surrendered yet.
So the policy expectations for September have been fluctuating back and forth.
But if Friday's nonfarm payrolls continue to weaken, the logic is clear:
Weak employment
→ Rate cut/easing expectations rise
→ Dollar and U.S. Treasury yields fall
→ Pressure on risk assets eases
→ BTC rebounds
It might even recover the losses after Warsh's speech.
Conversely, if nonfarm payrolls are unexpectedly strong:
Dollar ↑
U.S. Treasury yields ↑
Rate cut expectations ↓
BTC continues to be under pressure.
But the problem is—
Employment data has been consistently signaling cooling, so the probability of nonfarm payrolls suddenly being strong enough to contradict market expectations is low in my view.
So this week, I'm only watching one thing:
Whether nonfarm payrolls are strong enough to change market pricing.
If not.
Then this $BTC pullback, I would rather see it as an opportunity to look for a low-risk long position.
The worst thing for the market isn't bad news.
It's when expectations are already very bad, but the data isn't as bad as expected.
So don't rush to get scared off by a single speech.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls will reveal the truth.
$BTC #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
I am Cige. Brent crude oil has returned to $94.65, approaching a six-week high. On September 1, the US military launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran, reigniting conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, and market concerns over supply disruptions have intensified again. But the chokepoint is not only Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in August dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2017, due to attacks by Houthi forces on the alternative Red Sea route bypassing the strait. On the Russia-Ukraine front, Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have extended the diesel export ban until the end of September. Three supply lines are simultaneously narrowing, making oil prices likely to rise in the short term.
The transmission chain to BTC is very clear. The continued rise in oil prices will strengthen inflation concerns, possibly prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which puts pressure on risk assets including BTC. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September is already above 66%. As oil prices continue to push higher, the interest rate balance will only tilt further. BTC has fallen from above 80,000 to around 77,000, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening in tandem. Technically, BTC is oscillating near 77,500, with resistance at 78,500 and key support between 76,000 and 77,000; a break below would target 75,000 to 74,000. Oil prices still have room to rise in the short term; as long as geopolitical risk premiums do not fade, the macro pressure on BTC will not be relieved.
The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 After Bitcoin surged 28% in August: Is September the night before the breakthrough or a bull trap?
In August 2026, Bitcoin posted its strongest August performance in nearly a decade with a gain of over 28%, climbing from $63,000 at the beginning of the month to around $80,200 by the close on August 27. This rally was not baseless—the U.S. Treasury's implicit balance sheet expansion, a record $2.72 billion net inflow into spot ETFs in a single month, and large-scale short covering collectively fueled the bulls' advance. However, as the market turns its attention to September, the "gateway" price range of $81,000-$82,000, which has been repeatedly rejected multiple times this year, still stands in the way. Meanwhile, three major variables—the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, the Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, and the sustainability of ETF funds—are set to unfold intensively in September. This article analyzes the true structure of the September market based on the latest on-chain data, institutional capital flows, and policy timelines, providing actionable position management frameworks for investors with different risk appetites. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $BTC $ETH $SOL $ETH $BTC is starting to rebound?
From the current data, this looks more like a short-term technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. Although prices have risen, the internal market signals are clearly divergent, especially with some concerns still lingering around Ethereum.
Specifically:
📊 Main price and capital dynamics
· $BTC (Bitcoin): Rebounded to around $78,000. On Wednesday, Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached $101 million, boosting buying confidence.
· $ETH (Ethereum): Rebounded to around $2,400. However, on Wednesday, ETF net outflows were $48 million, ending a 12-day streak of inflows, indicating divergence among major funds.
⚠️ Why is the foundation unstable?
· $ETH is the weak link: Capital outflows indicate this rebound is largely driven by $BTC setting the pace; the market has not formed a unified force, so the logic for sustained growth is flawed.
· Technical pressure exists: $BTC faces strong resistance in the $78,500–$80,000 range; $ETH also needs to firmly hold above the $2,400 level before further progress can be discussed.
💎 My view
The current situation can be summarized as: $BTC is temporarily stable due to institutional capital inflows, while $ETH is noticeably weaker due to capital withdrawal.
The sustainability of the rebound is questionable. For a genuine strengthening, we need to see Ethereum $ETF funds flowing back in or larger macro benefits like interest rate cuts. In terms of operations, it is recommended to treat this as a short-term rebound and avoid blindly chasing the rise just because prices have increased 一句话结论 CHIP（USD.AI）今天再涨 +30% 至 0.0544，OKX 永续单日成交 **6,030 万**（较昨日 3,180 万再翻倍）——至此它已从 8 月 10 日历史低点0.0214 反弹 +150%，30 天累涨 +121%，是过去一个月最猛的 AI 概念币之一。这波不是纯炒作：**8/10 英伟达联合 Apollo、贝莱德、KKR 等华尔街巨头宣布共建 AI 算力融资平台（赛道级叙事点燃），8/28 加密交易所 Bullish 向 USD.AI 提供 1 亿稳定币债务融资专用于 GPU 贷款**——两个机构级利好精确卡在行情的两次主升浪之前。但短线必须冷静：现价高出 20 日均线 61%，且正撞在 5 月套牢平台0.055-0.06 的下沿，追高风险收益比一般。 项目速览：USD.AI 是什么 USD.AI 自称 "The Dollar That Scales AI"——一个 AI 基础设施金融协议：GPU 运营商可以用自己的显卡硬件作抵押，借出基于美元资产的贷款，为算力扩张融资。产品三件套： • USDai：完全抵押的合成美元（存款端）； • sUSDai：生Here's an earlier directional chart for those only watching $BTC K-line: today the yen surged, the dollar index was pushed down, and gold also took a breather. When these three move together, it points to one thing — a weak dollar. And a weak dollar is exactly the fuel behind the recent rebound in risk assets, which is a real headwind for my short positions. Why do I always tell you to look up at the dollar and interest rates? Because by the time you see direction on Bitcoin's 1-hour chart, the dollar has often already moved half a step ahead. The market is the effect; the dollar and interest rates are the cause. Next time the market moves unusually, don't rush to chase; first ask: what is the dollar doing? Here's a textbook case for those chasing AI stocks today: Broadcom's earnings clearly beat expectations, and the AI semiconductor guidance was strong, yet the stock once plunged nearly 6% intraday. Bank of America conveniently cut the target price from 530 to 460. This is the classic 'sell the news' that veteran traders often mention — the good news was already priced in before the earnings release, and when retail investors rush in seeing "great numbers," that's exactly when the smart money cashes out. It's exactly the same in crypto: by the time the headline tells you "good news," the move is usually over. Don't let impressive numbers make decisions for you; first ask — has the price already reflected this news?🚨 REKTEMBER IS OFFICIALLY HERE?
$BTC opened September by slipping below the $78K level.
Meanwhile, Warsh is openly pushing the possibility of a September rate hike — and this time, there’s no obvious political pushback from Trump.
That’s what makes the setup different.
Previous rate scares had some form of political counterweight.
This time, the market may have to face the pressure on its own.
September #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Gold has pulled back above 4400 in this wave, and I looked into it again; the main reasons are: ETFs are buying, central banks are relocating, and options are amplifying volatility.
First, ETFs are buying real gold. SPDR increased its holdings by nearly 10 tons in one day, bringing its total holdings back to 1056 tons. This volume is not something retail investors can accumulate; institutions are reconfiguring gold as an asset allocation. Gold ETFs have continuous net inflows; money is indeed flowing in.
Second, the Dutch central bank moved 86 tons of gold from New York and Ottawa back to London. They relocated nearly 30% of the North American stockpile, citing increased geopolitical turmoil and crisis preparedness. A developed country is physically moving gold, and it's moving it out of the U.S.—this signal is more direct than any candlestick chart; some are starting to lose confidence in the dollar system.
Third, Goldman Sachs has broken through a barrier. Demand for gold call options has surged, forcing market makers to continuously buy gold to hedge. The more it rises, the more they buy; the more they buy, the more it rises. Once this positive feedback loop starts, the short-term elasticity will be greater than many expect.
This rise in gold is not driven by risk aversion sentiment but by the return of its monetary attributes. Central banks are relocating gold, ETFs are buying, and options are amplifying volatility. These three factors won't stop just because Friday's nonfarm payroll data is good or bad. Regardless of whether the data triggers a rebound or a pullback, the direction is already set. Gold is not just rising; it is returning to where it belongs. #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 $XAU $XAUT @OKX星球 After BTC broke 100,000, the total market value of counterfeits only rose less than 20%. Some call this rotation, but I'd rather call it repricing itself. Have you ever calculated how many people caught the last bull market's slogan of "buy when it drops" halfway down the mountain? Yesterday, while flipping through my holdings, I suddenly realized that the most expensive thing in a bull market isn't chips, but the greed of "wanting it every time." My current setup is simple: the core is BTC and ETH, the middle layer gives SOL and SUI, then LINK and ONDO, which have real business support, and finally the highly volatile lottery positions like TIA and SEI. Not every coin deserves to have a position, I tell myself. What the market is truly trading isn't about "rising or falling," but about "which stories are still trustworthy." After BTC stabilized at a high level, the first reaction of funds wasn't to rush to all the altcoins but to catch up on ETH — the lesson of "consensus still existing." Then SOL led a batch of infrastructure projects upward, while SUI's performance seemed to replicate the quiet before SOL's previous launch. This sequence is essentially not rotation but the market repricing different sectors: first confirming the core asset did not collapse, then giving the second-tier leaders a sweet candy, and finally the storytelling small coins turn. Many overlook that the strength of LINK and ONDO in this rally actually indicates that funds are starting to target projects with "income, cooperation, and real use cases," and pure sentiment is losing influence. The bullish side is very strongBut look at why he's in a hurry: approval rating at 33%, a career low; gasoline prices at an all-time high; 71% of the public dissatisfied with prices; and the possibility of losing both houses of Congress in the midterm elections in November. He needs the stock market to rise like he needs oxygen. The president publicly calls trades—not analysis, but campaign advertising. Prediction markets are more honest than him: the probability of the S&P hitting 8000 by year-end was 79% a month ago, now only 52%. On the same day, a Federal Reserve governor hinted that "inflation data might be revised down by a few tenths"—the wind of changing the measuring stick has started to blow. The only useful takeaway for me is: before the election, he won't dare tighten liquidity, which is good for risk assets. But rushing in to buy based on the president's calls is just using your own money to pay for someone else's campaign ads. He calls for his rise, I hold my BTC.Found it. At the White House press conference on September 2, a reporter asked him, "If you attack Iran and oil prices hit $95, what will happen to the stock market?" Trump's exact words: "Believe it or not, the stock market will rise; the market hits new highs every day."
**But you have to see why he’s shouting this now:**
- His approval rating is 33%, the lowest of his career; 71% of Americans are unhappy with prices, gasoline at $4.08/gallon is the most expensive August ever
- The November midterm elections, the Republicans might even lose the Senate — he urgently needs a "good economy" narrative now
- The prediction market is more honest than him: the probability of the S&P reaching 8000 by year-end was 79% a month ago, now only 52%
- Coincidentally, on the same day, Fed Governor Waller hinted that "inflation data might be revised down by a few tenths of a percentage point" — the "changing the ruler" mentioned in yesterday’s video, the signal has already been sent
**Impact on you:** The president shouting about a rise is not analysis, it’s campaign advertising. But this statement has a useful implication — **he absolutely won’t dare to tighten liquidity before the election**, so the September FOMC rate hike is very likely a bluff, which is actually good news for BTC.
The copy is ready, just copy it:
Trump said: "Believe it or not, the stock market will rise." A year ago he himself said attacking Iran would crash the market, now oil is $95 and the stock market really hits new highs every day. $ZEC reported near 832, rising from 565 to 888 in August (an eight-year high), currently stuck in a high-level oscillation between 775–880, reflecting a tug-of-war between "ETF expectations" and "profit-taking".
Why the surge: Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF launched on 8/25 on NYSE Arca, the world's first privacy coin ETF; SEC's investigation into the Zcash Foundation ended with no enforcement action, removing the "security attribute" risk and opening institutional channels.
Why the oscillation: Nearly +70% in August alone, RSI at 66.7 close to overbought; 850–880 is strong resistance, 775–780 is support, 20-day EMA at 703; futures open interest at 1.58 billion >> spot at 312 million, leverage amplifies volatility.
Anchor points (personal record, not advice): Daily close above 880 → opens target of 1000; break below 750 → deep correction to 610–650; the middle range is consolidation, avoid fake breakouts.
This $ZEC wave is driven by "institutional narrative + leverage fuel" dual engines, 832 is not a good entry point. Mid-term buy points are either waiting for a pullback to 700 support or a confirmed breakout above 880 on the right side.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
Do you think $ZEC will first surge to 1000 or first drop to 600 for a washout after ETF inflows are realized?$SPCX at $147 is interesting for one reason: the tokenized SpaceX exposure is trading almost exactly where the underlying SpaceX shares have recently found buyers. The latest market data puts tokenized SPCX around the low-$140s, while its recent 7D range has been roughly $135–$145. But the bigger disconnect is this: SpaceX exposure remains well below its $223.88 June peak, so this isn't a clean momentum breakout yet. It’s a recovery attempt from a much deeper drawdown. At your $147 level, I’dA single month rakes in 143 million, accounting for nearly 40% of the entire network: Who exactly benefits from Solana's boom?
When the August on-chain application fee ledger came out, many Ethereum believers probably felt uneasy again.
All the application revenues from all public chains combined, Solana alone took 38%, pulling in $143 million in just one month. After years of Ethereum's layered scaling efforts, most of the real cash flow from applications has ended up on the neighboring single chain.
But behind the celebration, veteran traders are actually pondering another question: who exactly is benefiting from this 143 million?
Looking into the revenue composition reveals that the vast majority of this flow is not serious commercial adoption, but rather platforms, DEXs, and MEV sandwich bots aggressively harvesting retail traders' transaction fees. Market makers and protocols are making a fortune, but retail holders of SOL in the secondary market have no direct dividend channels and still face the network's base inflation.
This is actually the most surreal reality of today's public chains.
Ethereum, in pursuit of technical purity, pushed all high-frequency trading to L2, causing mainnet revenue to dry up; meanwhile, Solana went all out with its casino-like approach, becoming the only money printer on the entire network generating huge cash flow, but leaving the challenge of value accumulation to the token.
Facing this extreme fee-driven boom, do you think this 143 million is Solana's moat on its path to the throne, or just the last speculative flare before the retreat? Let's talk about today's most trade-sensitive hidden signal: the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped overnight from 70% back to 50%. Waller just said, "If inflation continues to improve, I support holding steady," and Williams also mentioned that the reasons for a rate hike are insufficient—the hawkish consensus is starting to loosen. This is the real reason for the collective rebound of the three currencies, not some "bull market is back." Anyone who plays cards knows: if you bet heavily based on your hand reading before the flop, and then the turn card completely changes the board, stubbornly sticking to your original judgment is the real losing move. I don't deny this card is unfavorable to the bears. So what I'm watching is not the price, but whether next week's nonfarm payrolls will flip it back again. Do you think this move is a real reversal or a fakeout? Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, a critical moment, will $BTC surge? #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday. On September 4th, at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the August nonfarm payrolls will be released. This time, rather than rushing to see how many new jobs were added, it might be more important to pay attention to the "previous value revisions" afterward. In the last report, July employment decreased by 23,000, and May and June were collectively revised down by 103,000. In other words, some jobs that were originally thought to have been added turned out to be fewer after data was updated. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
This is interesting because if tomorrow night’s new employment turns positive, it might look strong at first glance, but with the previous two months being significantly revised down, the overall employment trend may not have truly improved. If you only focus on the headline news, you might not even understand what the market is actually trading.
For BTC, this kind of result is not necessarily directly bullish. Cooling employment might ease rate hike expectations, but if the market starts worrying about economic problems, funds might sell crypto first.
So this time, more attention is on whether the improvement in new employment can withstand revisions and whether wage growth is also cooling down. Relying on just one number to decide whether to hike rates in September is a bit hasty.
By the way, this is the last nonfarm payroll report before the rate decision, not the last set of economic data; there is still CPI on September 11th. Even if the direction is guessed right tomorrow night, it’s not yet time to hold positions blindly.Every prior $BTC Bitcoin drawdown at day 332 was already deeper than this one. 2013 was sitting at 73.7% down, 2017 at 67.2%, 2021 at 70.4%.
This one is at 38.7%.
Those three eventually bottomed at 91%, 83.3%, and 76.7%. The last two took over a year to get there#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue This wave is really starting to strengthen the bulls.
BTC today dropped straight from 78,400 to 76,500, a daily decline of over 2%. Naturally, people look for reasons for the drop—geopolitical issues, interest rate hike expectations, risk aversion before the non-farm payrolls... but the truth might be simpler: after six attempts to break through 80,000 without success, the bulls have run out of patience.
Even more awkward is that the funding side didn’t hold up. BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $236.5 million last night; the $216.7 million inflow from the previous day was not only fully withdrawn but also resulted in a loss. If this were a "normal shakeout," having a net outflow of funds during the shakeout means the cost of this shakeout is way too high.
ETH is also in trouble. A whale holding 45,000 ETH long positions has started selling spot to save the position, cashing out 3.75 million USDC, with 3.5 million used to cover margin. A position of 107 million is underwater with a floating loss of 4.8 million; the liquidation price is $2,173, leaving only about $200 room from the current price. Once liquidation triggers, it will further drag down Ethereum.
Summary: In the current market, both bulls and bears could be crushed by BTC and ETH. Instead of getting tangled up within crypto, it’s better to focus on the US stock market—before the non-farm payrolls release, macro sentiment is the real conductor. Wait for stabilization before fighting again.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖