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The semiconductor sector collectively strengthens, with positive tech sentiment spreading to the crypto space
U.S. semiconductor-related stocks all closed higher, led by the memory chip sector. SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk all rose across the board, and leveraged semiconductor long positions surged simultaneously, reflecting a renewed capital inflow into the tech growth track.
Memory chips continue to warm up, driven by expectations of an industry cycle reversal. The market anticipates gradual chip inventory destocking and sustained AI computing power demand, pushing storage prices upward, with capital positioning ahead of this cycle recovery rally.
The sentiment in the tech sector is strongly linked to the crypto market. A rebound in risk appetite indirectly supports BTC and ETH with capital inflows. However, it is important to note that Middle East geopolitical risks still loom over the market, and high oil prices raise inflation concerns, which will constrain the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts. This remains a core factor suppressing risk assets.
An interesting phenomenon is emerging: U.S. tech stocks are strengthening while the crypto market enters a high-level consolidation. This indicates profit-taking accumulation within the crypto space, with short-term bullish momentum somewhat depleted. External sentiment recovery can provide bottom support but is insufficient to directly drive a new round of sharp rallies.
From an operational perspective, there is no need to blindly chase semiconductor-related targets, and the crypto market should also respect the risk of pullbacks. Until the external macro environment becomes fully clear, it is preferable to adopt a consolidation mindset and wait for further confirmation of the mainline signals. 美股AMC夜盘涨幅扩大至超20%，现报3.07美元 9月4日，美股AMC（美国院线公司）夜盘涨幅持续扩大，一度超过20%，股价现报3.07美元，暂无明确公司公告或基本面消息配合。 9月4日，据行情数据，美股AMC（美国院线公司）夜盘涨幅持续扩大，突破20%，股价现报3.07美元。AMC是美国最大的院线运营商之一，近年来受流媒体冲击、观影习惯改变以及高负债结构影响，基本面长期承压，股价长期处于低位，也因此成为美股市场最具代表性的meme股之一。2021年，AMC曾与游戏驿站一同被散户资金集体推高，上演史诗级逼空行情，一度成为散户对抗机构的标志性标的。此后，其股价对散户情绪、社交媒体讨论热度、期权交易活跃度以及空头持仓变化保持高度敏感。从交易结构看，AMC股价绝对值较低、空头持仓占比偏高，这类特征使其容易出现脱离基本面的短线剧烈波动；同时夜盘与盘前时段流动性相对薄弱，少量资金即可推动价格大幅偏离，涨幅数字容易被进一步放大。此次夜盘大涨暂未伴随明确的公司公告、业绩指引或行业性利好消息，更可能反映短线投机资金集中涌入、题材炒作或空头回补行为。需要提示的是，此类缺乏基本面支撑的拉升往往波动剧烈，September 4
Gold Midday
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
Federal Reserve Policy
Federal Reserve Governor Waller released more dovish remarks than expected, stating that if inflation continues to cool, he tends to keep rates unchanged in September. The market's probability of a rate hike in September fell from 62% to around 48%. Coupled with ADP employment data significantly missing expectations, the US dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields both declined. Gold prices rebounded strongly from the 4282 low point, recovering from an oversold condition, surging nearly 2% overnight and reaching near the 4500 level.
Key Reminder: A decline in the probability of a rate hike does not mean a complete shift to easing. Waller did not close the door on rate hikes, emphasizing that if inflation rebounds again, he still supports raising rates; US service sector inflation data remains resilient, and the high interest rate environment has not completely disappeared.
Tonight at 20:30, the Nonfarm Payroll report is the core event of the week. ADP is only a leading indicator. The strength or weakness of the Nonfarm employment data will directly rewrite rate hike expectations and determine the medium-term direction of gold. There is no major data in the early Asian session, with strong cautious sentiment among large funds, waiting for the Nonfarm data to be released. Market fluctuations and washouts will increase. The current market remains characterized as: a technical rebound after a big drop, not a trend reversal, so avoid blindly chasing the upside.
4-hour cycle: Bottom rebound structure is forming, gold price stands firm above short-term moving averages; after a rapid overnight rally, short-term bullish momentum has weakened, indicators show signs of bearish divergence, midday high-level tug-of-war with a higher probability of a pullback washout.
Strategy: Short around 4490-4510, stop loss at 4530, target 4450-4430
Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, please be cautious when entering the market
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $XAU $BTC entered a phase of directional choice after a strong rebound in August. The uncertainty in macro data (weak employment vs. sticky inflation), the divergence in ETF fund flows (outflows at the beginning of the month vs. inflows the next day), and the highly split expectations for Federal Reserve policy together form the three main drivers of short-term volatility. The two major events, CPI and FOMC, in the next two weeks will determine whether the price breaks upward or corrects downward. $ETH 1. Current Price and Market Performance
As of September 4, Bitcoin has staged a strong rebound. Market data shows Bitcoin rising to $81,188.4, with a 24-hour increase of about 5.13%. Intraday, it briefly surpassed $82,000, marking a more than four-month high. Ethereum also rose approximately 5.17% to around $2,510. Driven by this, Hong Kong-listed cryptocurrency concept stocks opened sharply higher, with Boya Interactive up over 11%.
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2. Core Factors Driving This Rally
1. Sharp Drop in Fed Rate Hike Expectations (Key Catalyst)
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller sent a clear dovish signal, stating that if inflation continues to cool, he would support keeping rates unchanged at the September meeting. Waller, a core hawk in the Fed, turning dovish directly changed market expectations—CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a September rate hike dropped from over 60% earlier this week to about 50.4%. The expectation of stable rates is a direct positive for speculative risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. Positive Signals on Regulation
SEC Chair Gary Gensler indicated that the Senate is expected to vote on the Clarity Act on September 15 and urged policymakers to pass the bill. The crypto market has long viewed this legislation as an important step toward regulatory legitimacy.
3. Marginal Easing of Geopolitical Risks
No new military conflicts have emerged between the U.S. and Iran, easing market sentiment somewhat. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have dropped sharply and the dollar index is under pressure, accelerating capital flows into high-elasticity assets like Bitcoin and gold.
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3. Market Divergence Amid Bulls and Bears
Despite the short-term surge, significant disagreement remains on whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000:
⚠️ Resistance to Upside and Downside Risks
· Weak U.S. Buying: Coinbase premium’s 7-day average has been negative for over four months, indicating U.S. investor demand has not truly recovered. Spot Bitcoin ETF’s 7-day average daily inflows are $290 million, but activity remains low compared to previous bull markets.
· Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure: Glassnode estimates about 1.05 million BTC held by long-term holders in the $83,000 to $86,000 range act as a "ceiling," posing significant upward resistance.
· Short Squeeze-Driven Rally: A large portion of this rally is driven by short covering; market positioning is near neutral, casting doubt on further upward momentum.
· Seasonal Pattern Unfavorable: Since 2014, September has seen an average Bitcoin decline of about 2.2%, making it one of the weakest months.
· Predictive Markets Turning Bearish: Kalshi trader pricing shows about an 80% probability Bitcoin will fall below $75,000 in September, and about 53% probability it will drop below $72,500.
📈 Bullish Logic and Support Levels
· Key Technical Support: The 200-day moving average is near $69,507; analysts believe a pullback to the mid-to-low $70,000s would attract strong buying support.
· Bullish Defense Line: As long as the $73,000 to $75,000 range is not decisively broken and ETF inflows continue, BTC may consolidate between $75,000 and $83,000 before another upward push, with the next target zone around $92,000 to $100,000.
· Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits New High: The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold reached a record 0.8; historically, after reaching similar levels twice before, Bitcoin rebounded 172% and 350%, respectively.
🏦 Institutional Views Diverge
Institution/Analyst Views
TD Cowen lowered Bitcoin’s year-end target to $97,500, still implying about 25% upside from current levels
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee sees a possibility of Bitcoin reaching $150,000, with institutions positioning for Q4
Fidelity questions whether the bear market is truly over, noting uncertainty in market recovery
CryptoQuant notes apparent Bitcoin demand has turned negative again; if short-term demand doesn’t recover, a new downtrend may begin
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4. Key Data Observation Points
The next two weeks are critical windows for Bitcoin’s direction:
1. September 4 (Friday): U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls report—weak data would further cement rate cut expectations, benefiting Bitcoin’s break above $83,000 resistance; strong data could reverse dovish sentiment.
2. September 11 (next Friday): U.S. August CPI data—will directly determine if Waller’s dovish stance translates into Fed action.
3. September 15-16: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting—the final policy decision.
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Comprehensive Judgment
Bitcoin is currently caught between a macro shift toward dovish expectations (bullish) and structurally weak demand (bearish). The $83,000 to $86,000 range is a key resistance zone, while $73,000 to $75,000 is a critical bullish defense line. The upcoming Nonfarm and CPI data will largely decide whether Bitcoin breaks upward to challenge $100,000 or falls back near $70,000 to find support.
⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is compiled from publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.Conclusion first: Yesterday's surge of Bitcoin to $82,000 and Ethereum surpassing $2,510 is not the start of a new trend, but the last frenzy before the storm. Non-farm payroll data is very likely to be weak, but weak non-farm data will actually reinforce the rate hike logic—because inflation is the Federal Reserve's core concern right now. A rate hike in September is a high-probability event, and the crypto market along with tech stocks are about to face a new round of declines.
1. Why did prices rise yesterday? Don't be fooled by appearances
Yesterday, Bitcoin once broke through $82,108, and Ethereum rose above $2,510, both gaining over 5% in 24 hours. On the surface, this rebound was driven by "Fed dovish signals + expectations of weak non-farm data."
But the problem is—the market's pricing logic has changed.
Bank of America clearly pointed out that non-farm payrolls are "unlikely to be the decisive factor for a September rate hike." The real key is the CPI data on September 11. If inflation data remains high, even weak employment won't stop rate hikes. The market mistakenly interprets "weak non-farm" as "rate cut positive," but this logic chain is broken.
2. Rate hike probability: not "possible," but "highly likely"
On September 1, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike once reached 66.4%. After Waller's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, the threshold for a September hike has clearly lowered—Waller explicitly stated that recent moderate inflation data "does not indicate a significant improvement in the underlying trend," and if the trend does not cooperate, the Fed "still has work to do."
As of the latest data on September 4, CME FedWatch shows a 50.2% probability of a 25 basis point hike in September, and a 49.8% probability of holding rates steady. It looks like a 50-50 split, but note—the probability jumped from 35% to 66% and then back to 50% within a week, essentially reflecting intense market jockeying. Polymarket's forecast still holds the September hike probability near 56%.
More importantly, the Fed's probability of a rate hike by October remains as high as 64.5%. In other words, if not in September, then definitely in October—the question is not if, but whether it comes a month earlier or later.
Weak employment has not led to any easing in pricing—inflation remains the dominant variable in this cycle.
3. Capital flow: smart money is already exiting
Although Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $101 million on September 2, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $48.2 million that day, ending a 12-day streak of cumulative $1.62 billion net inflows.
Meanwhile, the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours reached $468 million—leveraged long positions are being selectively liquidated. This is not a signal of capital inflow, but a dangerous sign of extreme divergence between bulls and bears.
4. Tech stocks under pressure simultaneously: high valuations are the biggest vulnerability
With rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, Nasdaq 100 futures plunged 1% to 29,200 points. In a rising interest rate environment, high-valuation tech stocks are the first to suffer. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 4.73%—the higher the risk-free rate, the greater the valuation pressure on growth stocks.
The tech sector, especially semiconductors, is the most crowded trade in this rate hike cycle. Once the September hike is confirmed, the correlated decline of tech stocks and crypto assets is almost certain.
5. Timing forecast: no time to wait for CPI
Tonight's non-farm payroll data is expected to show an increase of 53,000 to 56,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Citi's forecast is more pessimistic—only 20,000 jobs added, with unemployment possibly rising to 4.2%.
But as mentioned earlier—weak non-farm data will not stop rate hikes; it may instead make the market realize the rising risk of "stagflation."
The critical window is the CPI on September 11 and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16. But given current inflation stickiness, CPI is unlikely to provide a "rate cut signal" that satisfies the market. Waiting for CPI to react will be too late.
Bitcoin at $82,000 and Ethereum at $2,510 are very likely the highs for September. The first support level below is $76,000-$77,000; if broken, the downside risk protection zone of $73,000-$75,000 will be tested.
The frenzy is over. Next comes the real test of holding faith in your positions. $BTC tapped 80K again as yields eased on fading Fed-hike fears.
But the cross-currents are hard to ignore.
ETFs: August inflows, September mixed.
Whales: Yi Lihua stays bullish. Jiang Zhuoer sold his entire bag at 82K, citing weak ETF demand.
And here's the kicker-BTC's 90-day correlation with gold just hit its highest level since 2020.
That's not risk-on behavior. That's macro hedging.
So 80K isn't the story.
The story is whether BTC behaves like gold or like tech.
#WallerEyesAugCPI BTC reclaiming $80K with ETH leading the 24h move suggests this is broader risk appetite, not an isolated squeeze. My read: the market is positioning for a friendlier macro path ahead of CPI, but the stronger signal is ETH's relative bid. If that persists, participation may widen beyond BTC.
Not advice, just analysis.Interest rate cut expectations overdrawn, or a real breakthrough? — Analysis of today's BTC/ETH fluctuations
1. Interest rate cut expectations priced in early: After Federal Reserve officials released dovish signals, the market quickly pushed the probability of a September rate cut above 70%. U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar declined simultaneously, directly boosting the USD-denominated valuations of BTC/ETH. The main players chose to launch their offensive on the eve of the non-farm payroll release to avoid liquidity congestion after the data release, a typical "expectation front-running" strategy.
2. ETH/BTC exchange rate oversold rebound: Previously, ETH/BTC continuously declined to new lows for the phase, with short covering momentum accumulating for a long time. This round, ETH's gains quickly caught up with BTC, effectively activating altcoin long sentiment. Small-cap coins like ZEC, due to light selling pressure and concentrated holdings, became the concentrated outlet for short-term leveraged funds to vent, with gains magnified several times, showing much higher elasticity than the broader market.
3. On-chain data shows incremental volume concentrated in perpetual contracts, with spot buying relatively mild, indicating that the current market is still mainly driven by sentiment and leverage rather than large-scale off-exchange capital inflows.
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Key Risks
This is a typical "data pre-gaming frenzy," with prices having overdrawn rate cut expectations.
· If non-farm payrolls are weak: bulls continue to squeeze shorts, and the rally is likely to continue.
· If non-farm payrolls are strong: rate cut expectations will be falsified, and all front-running bulls tonight will stampede to exit; BTC will retest key integer levels, and high Beta assets like ZEC will face severe pullbacks. Position control is essential.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元 ETH broke below 2500, and I couldn't smile at all. Have you ever had a night when the market went exactly as expected, but the account numbers kept you awake? Last night, I stared at the screen, $ETH pulled from 2355 all the way to 2505, the highest point like a knife, right at my 2289 short position. The floating loss slowly climbed from $87 to $170, that dull knife cutting flesh feeling worse than a crash. Honestly, I saw this rebound but didn't get in the stock. The reason is simple: what I smelled wasn't a trend, but a liquidation. Look at on-chain data: BitMine increased holdings by 53,000 ETH, reaching 59,000 ETH, becoming the largest corporate holder. Whales also swept $126 million in the 2355 to 2370 range, and BTC simultaneously reclaimed the 80,000 mark. Signals across the entire chain are shouting: The bull market is back. But I can't sleep because of a few odd details. RSI6 is already at 89.89, J value has surged to 98.18, a textbook overbought zone. The sell wall above 2500 is as thick as a city wall. This recovery is driven by a pulse driven by contract liquidations, not by sudden fundamentals improving. The market is trading in advance for future liquidity, not the real supply and demand now. To put it bluntly, what the market is doing now is cramming rate cut expectations, ETF narratives, and whale beliefs all into one candlestick. This sentiment is extremeBTC reclaiming $80K matters more than the headline gain. ETH is keeping pace, while SOL lags slightly, suggesting this is a broad risk bid rather than a narrow rotation. Still, pressure at the long end of the Treasury curve argues for discipline. I would trust the move more if it holds through the next macro catalyst.
Not advice, just analysis.$ENA is sitting at $0.16265, but the interesting part isn’t the recent pump. It’s the shift in future token value capture. Ethena’s proposed fee switch would direct 95% of net revenue from covered business lines toward ENA buybacks once the required USDe supply condition is reached. At the same time, the remaining investor unlock schedule has been pushed toward a final October release. That creates an interesting setup: The market is trading the expectation before the mechanism is fully active.The most common mistake right now: seeing a bearish divergence at the top and thinking the market is over!
My view: a medium-term reversal has already been established, but the short-term risk of a top is also rising.
After the market started, $BTC broke through the long-term downtrend and the $60,000-$66,000 range, so it can no longer be considered a normal bear market rebound.
The problem lies in the second attempt to break above 82,000.
The MACD red bars have clearly shortened, RSI and KDJ highs have moved lower, a potential daily bearish divergence has appeared, open interest continues to increase, and funding rates have turned positive, indicating that a large amount of leveraged capital has entered in the latter half of the rally.
If spot buying can’t keep up, high-level oscillation can easily turn into a long squeeze.
But a short-term pullback does not mean the medium-term trend is over.
Historically, after BTC rises more than 20% in a single week, the probability of continuing to rise after 4 weeks is about 85.7%, and about 71.4% after 12 weeks, but the median maximum drawdown in the following 12 weeks is also 14.5%.
Based on $82,300, the corresponding level is roughly $70,300, though this number will change as the high moves up!
From now on, only three levels matter:
$80,000: short-term strength/weakness boundary
$78,000: bearish divergence confirmation level
$70,000-$74,000: medium-term pullback zone
So above $80,000, I won’t chase longs, nor will I heavily buy the top just because of divergence. Missing out at most means less profit; chasing the price recklessly to make up for missed opportunities is the easiest way to lose real money.Complete Analysis of OKX Delisting Rules: 8 Things You Need to Know from Token Hiding to Official Delisting
⚠️ This article only discloses the rules and does not constitute investment advice.
First, distinguish three things
Delisting on-chain earning/staking financial products ≠ Delisting spot trading pairs
Delisting spot trading pairs ≠ Immediate withdrawal suspension
Delisting financial products is product contraction, not token delisting or market exit
OKX handles tokens in two levels: 【Hidden Tokens】warning observation and 【Official Delist of spot trading pairs】. The official stance is "including but not limited to," and the exchange reserves final discretion.
1. Compliance and Legal Risks (Highest Priority)
Project team/founders are investigated or sued by the SEC or overseas regulators for securities violations, market manipulation, fraud
Project involved in money laundering, pyramid schemes, or other major criminal negatives
Regional regulatory new rules restrict the token from compliant operation in that area, triggering regional delisting
Major changes in core team or project sold without prior notification to the exchange for re-evaluation
2. Token Supply and Contract Technical Risks (Corresponding to CORE 8.31 Scenario)
Failure to notify exchange and users 15 days in advance, unauthorized total supply increase, hard forks, token splits—high-risk triggers
Note: Code bugs causing reward overflow or abnormal minting, even if not admin minting, will trigger risk assessment and observation list entry.
Public chain mainnet frequent failures, repeated block anomalies, frequent deposit/withdrawal errors
Major contract vulnerabilities, multiple hacks and thefts, no comprehensive remediation plan
Existence of 51% hash power attack risk, network security concerns
3. Liquidity and Trading Hard Metrics (Most Common Delisting Reasons)
Trading pair daily average volume below 5 BTC for 7 consecutive days
Zero trades in 24 hours, extremely poor depth, huge slippage
Project team faking trading volume
Many small tokens delist not due to malice but simply liquidity failure.
4. Team, Operations, and Development Fundamentals Deterioration
Official website inaccessible, Twitter/community unattended for over two weeks, team unreachable
No development/ecosystem progress on official channels for 1 month
GitHub public chain protocol no code commits for 3 consecutive months
Whitepaper roadmap seriously delayed without explanation
Foundation locked tokens sold in large amounts violating lockup plans or lockup plans not executed
Major information fraud deceiving exchange and investors
Marketing activities seriously damaging platform or community interests
5. Two States: Hidden VS Official Delisting
Hidden Tokens (Observation period, not delisting)
Trading still possible, just not shown in default lists/rankings, visible via search
Provide a rectification window; if standards met, display restored; if worsened, escalate to official delisting
Official Delist (spot trading pair delisting) typical process (based on OKX actual announcements)
Announcement issued, deposit suspended (e.g., ULTI/GEAR/VRA deposits suspended from 2026/1/20 08:00 UTC)
Spot trading closed at set time, open orders automatically canceled (system cancellation takes 1–3 business days)
Assets moved to "Funding Account / Untradable assets," withdrawal window retained (from several days up to about 3 months, e.g., MAJOR/J trading stopped early June, withdrawal stopped August 26)
After window ends, withdrawal closed completely, exchange no longer custodial
Key: Delisting trading pairs ≠ token value zero; tokens remain on public chain, just no longer traded or custodied by the exchange.
6. Delisting "On-chain earning/staking financial products" ≠ Token Delisting
Example: CORE/PYTH delisting on-chain earning means the exchange no longer acts as staking agent; orders mature and principal + earnings auto-redeemed to funding account; spot trading and deposits/withdrawals unaffected.
Common reasons:
Long staking unlock periods, protocol bug risks, exchange bears redemption responsibility
Stricter overseas regulation on centralized platform DeFi staking
High node maintenance costs, mismatched yield risks
7. CORE 8.31 Incident Realistic Interpretation
Nature: A few validators’ block rewards exceeded protocol design (reward distribution layer logic bug), not manual minting by project backend, no user asset theft; but failure to announce 15 days in advance + abnormal supply triggered OKX observation list conditions
Not immediate delisting; follow-up depends on four points:
Official full review + exact overflow token quantity
Overflow token handling (recovery/destruction/allow circulation)
Whether supply abnormalities recur
Whether liquidity remains compliant
Only if risk is unsolvable will official delisting proceed
8. Practical Checklist for Token Holders
Check announcement classification: delisting financial product / hidden token / spot trading pair delisting
Distinguish: product function delisting ≠ token delisting
If entering hidden/observation state → monitor official review and handling plan
Withdrawal window provided → withdraw to self-custody wallet during window (note UTC and Beijing time conversion, keep network confirmation margin)
Check "Untradable assets" dead zone in account; don’t wait until cutoff day to act Ethereum has returned above $2,500, but market sentiment is far less relaxed than the price curve suggests. Last night's low was $2,355, today's high reached $2,505, with daily volatility expanding again 🌊. Some see opportunity, others endure hardship—the short positions entered at $2,289 have seen unrealized losses grow from $87 to over $170, and the comment "Here we go again" probably echoes many people's feelings.
The forces driving this rebound are worth noting: BitMine increased its holdings by 53,000 ETH, bringing its total to 5.9 million ETH, becoming the largest corporate holder; meanwhile, a whale bought $126 million worth between $2,355 and $2,370. Bitcoin has returned to $80,000, and overall market sentiment has warmed accordingly.
But the details are not reassuring. RSI6 has reached 89.89, the J value is as high as 98.18, indicating a very strong short-term overbought signal; there is a clear sell wall near $2,500. More importantly, this rally is driven more by liquidity than by fundamental improvements.
$2,500 is a psychological threshold—holding above it means the trend continues, falling below could form a double top. For those chasing highs, the current risk-reward ratio is unfavorable; for holders, patience may be more important than judgment.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, short-term indicators are overbought, please control your positions prudently and manage risks well. #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCBreaks80KAgain #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #21 financial institutions plan to launch a US dollar stablecoin, possibly a new outlet for the US to handle its $40 trillion debt
21 financial institutions including Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, UBS, and others plan to jointly issue a US dollar stablecoin, which means Wall Street is directly putting the US dollar on the blockchain.
Every expansion of stablecoin scale may correspond to more US dollar reserves and short-term US Treasury demand behind it.
If the future scale reaches $40 billion, and high-liquidity US dollar assets are allocated according to regulatory requirements, it could bring hundreds of billions of dollars in short-term US Treasury allocations.
The impact on the US economy is very direct:
The more popular stablecoins become, the easier it is for the US dollar to enter cross-border payments, institutional settlements, and digital asset trading; as the circulation range of the US dollar expands, US Treasuries may also gain new buyers.
The impact on Crypto is equally significant:
USDT and USDC have previously dominated the trading liquidity entry points.
But once banks enter the market, they will bring more on-chain US dollars and lower the threshold for traditional funds to enter Crypto.
Long-term positive for BTC:
Stablecoins are not a direct buying force for BTC, but they form the liquidity foundation of the BTC market.
The more on-chain US dollars there are, the larger the capital inflow $BTC receives.
Impact on US stocks:
On one hand, stablecoins, payments, custody, compliance, and blockchain infrastructure companies may gain new growth opportunities.
On the other hand, traditional payment institutions and some financial intermediaries will face competition. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 ETF Capital Camp Split: Funds Layering Risk Between BTC and ETH
Is my US stock really doomed? 😭
Observing the latest capital flows of US spot ETFs, a very clear camp split can be seen.
After a large redemption the previous day, Bitcoin ETFs quickly saw inflows, recording a net inflow of $101 million in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT alone attracting $115 million inflow, while the veteran Grayscale GBTC continued to see outflows, with funds migrating from high-fee old funds to low-cost new funds.
However, during the same period, $ETH spot ETFs ended their continuous multi-day inflows and turned to net outflows, which is a very critical signal.
This indicates that institutional allocation strategies have diverged:
Some institutions treat $BTC as a macro hedge asset, allocating on dips; but ETH is classified as a high-volatility risk asset, so when market uncertainty arises, they prioritize redeeming ETH positions while retaining BTC base holdings.
Now, as the non-farm payroll and September interest rate meeting approach, the risk-averse nature of institutional funds is amplified.
Before the non-farm data is released, it is difficult to see ETFs experiencing sustained large unilateral inflows; more likely there will be back-and-forth fluctuations.
If the non-farm data strengthens and rate cut expectations cool down, redemption pressure on ETH ETFs will further increase; conversely, if the data weakens, ETH will see capital inflows again Tonight is the non-farm payroll at 20:30. Last night’s market already priced in the expectations, with BTC touching 82285, ETH reaching 2530, and SOL dropping to 104; the three major coins have all left the sideways range. Someone gave a step down, causing the reverse positions inside to exit first, which pushed the price up.
The battleground is now at 81,000, 2500, and 104, not trophies. There was no further surge during the day; the buying is digesting the night session profits.
Tonight’s data: expected 53,000-58,000, unemployment rate 4.1%. July has already been negative once, and ADP unexpectedly came in at 38,000 the day before yesterday; the data is indeed soft.
Weak data → rate hike expectations retreat → BTC pushed to 82,000-83,000. Strong data → rate hike confirmed → price hammered back to 76,000 or even lower.
The direction is still bullish, but don’t chase the wick tops. Buy on pullbacks at 80,800-81,000, stop loss at 80,200, target 82,500. Lighten positions before the data release; don’t heavily bet on the direction.#HOOD closes at a new annual high, leading public chains in on-chain revenue
I'm Cige. Robinhood's stock price rose 16.57% to $124.72, hitting a new high for the year. Morgan Stanley upgraded it to overweight with a target price of $150. Robinhood Chain's daily revenue is about $4.01 million, ranking first among public chains. In two months since launch, it has accumulated $13.05 million in fees, annualizing to approximately $110 million.
Robinhood Chain is built on the Arbitrum tech stack and shares revenue with the Arbitrum ecosystem, benefiting ARB accordingly. However, current trading activity mainly comes from Meme, Launchpad, and trading terminals. Whether it can solidify into real financial demands like RWA remains to be seen.
The impact on BTC is indirect. The volume surge on Robinhood Chain validates the explosive potential of combining compliant entry points with public chain infrastructure. The crypto ecosystem's foundation is scaling, and BTC, as the hardest asset, benefits long-term. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. That's all from Cige, take it in. $BTC $ETH $SNDK NFP night BTC “whipsaw alert” – for futures traders!
Tonight 20:30, est. +55k jobs, unemployment 4.1%.
3 scenarios:
① <40k (25%): recession fear → dip to shake longs → violent rally (bad news = good)
② 50–70k (55%): in-line → choppy whipsaws → range-bound
③ >80k (20%): rate-hike fears → fake breakout → sharp drop
My view: weak data (~50k), first dip to 79.5k, then rebound above 82k, wide range, long/short squeezes.
Key levels: support 79,400, resistance 82,500. The competitive landscape among the three "money printing machines" in the crypto market has recently seen some subtle changes. Although $UNI has the highest protocol fee income, most of it is distributed to liquidity providers, making the actual amount used for buyback and burn the lowest among the three. Its recent price increase mainly relies on the Robinhood chain, which contributed over 66% of the buyback volume. Whether the price can hold up going forward largely depends on the performance of this chain.
$PUMP has always been very profitable, but as a launch platform, ordinary players can hardly participate. New tokens keep emerging, and retail investors often face various arbitrage and attacks, which is its biggest pain point currently. However, after looking at the pons mechanism on the Robinhood chain, it becomes clear that these issues are not technically difficult to solve.
As for $HYPE, the market pricing is already quite thorough. If I had to choose only one out of the three, I would rather choose none, because the real dark horse might be someone else. This new platform has a 24-hour protocol fee of 5.95 million USD, income of 1.11 million USD, with fees exceeding pump for two consecutive days, and a buyback and burn ratio as high as 29.3%, with even greater transparency. Barring any surprises, it could become the biggest variable in this bull market.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; the above is only data observation and does not constitute investment advice. #WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCBreaks80KAgain #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC SNDK SanDisk review.
The DRAM industry has seen price increases for 7 consecutive months, with solid fundamental positive narratives, but after the market surged to 1586, it quickly fell back.
The market is very pragmatic; widely known positives often become windows for major players to offload.
Logic is logic, the market is the market. Don’t fight the candlestick charts with news. In high-leverage games, news can only serve as an aid; the candlestick and capital acceptance determine if the positive will be realized.Brothers, combining the last July non-farm actual of -23,000, and looking at this ADP of only 38,000, initial claims of 206,000, and the market's current expectation of about 55,000–65,000, I personally lean towards this non-farm payroll not being particularly strong.
My subjective forecast: non-farm payroll 40,000–70,000, leaning around 50,000; unemployment rate 4.1%–4.2%, wage growth most likely to remain moderate.
$BTC #HOODChainRevenueLead #AVGODipsSNOWPops #WallerEyesAugCPI "Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 38: I went on a trip these past two days and didn't really monitor the market. As soon as I got back, I found that the market had quietly taken my position. In Issue 37, the short position around BTC 79,300–80,500 was ultimately stopped out near 80,800. I originally planned to wait for the market to pull back, but the market directly reversed and stabbed me in the back; the short position was stopped out, and then BTC surged to a high near 82,282. As for ETH, the short position around 2,485–2,565 has not yet hit the stop loss and is still in a floating loss state, so just continue holding. This is trading: if the direction is wrong, admit it; if the stop loss is hit, exit. The market doesn't give face, and you can't reason with it. 1. Why did it suddenly rally last night? This round of rise is not without reason. Last night, the US initial jobless claims were announced at 206,000, slightly higher than the market expectation of about 205,000, indicating some cooling in the employment market. At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Waller released a relatively dovish signal, stating that if upcoming inflation data continues to improve, he tends to keep rates unchanged at the September meeting; if inflation rises again, he does not rule out supporting a rate hike. This contrasts sharply with previous market concerns about a September rate hike. After Waller's speech, the market's pricing for a September rate hike clearly fell back, the US dollar and Treasury yields weakened simultaneously, risk assets quickly rebounded, and BTC rose from around 77,000 to above 82,000. But here we need to pay attention After a rapid surge, ARB has reached the previous high zone, and the market is showing clear signs of caution. From the market structure perspective, a large amount of trapped positions often accumulate near previous highs. Once the price approaches this area, the pressure from trapped holders selling to break even and profit-taking naturally forms a resistance band. Trading funds usually do not allow trapped positions to exit smoothly; they are more likely to create repeated fluctuations to absorb floating chips, so the probability of an immediate breakout above the previous high is not high. Even if an upward breakout is eventually chosen, the trial-and-error cost of setting stop losses near the previous high is relatively limited, making the overall risk-reward ratio acceptable. Similar patterns can be observed in BEAT and BICO, where after a surge, time is often needed for consolidation. Even if one is unfortunately trapped, the holding period usually is not too long. Meanwhile, Robinhood's on-chain trading is active, and ARB's revenue narrative is heating up; on the macro level, this Friday's non-farm payroll data is the last key indicator before the FOMC meeting. Broadcom's earnings exceeded expectations, and Snowflake raised its guidance, which has somewhat improved market risk appetite. Short-term chasing of highs still requires caution, as breakthroughs of historical top zones are rarely achieved in one go, and price fluctuations are inevitable. $ARB is highly volatile; please be sure to control your position size and strictly adhere to stop losses. This article does not constitute investment advice.The reason the market is most excited right now is straightforward: BTC quickly surged from around 76,200 to 80,000, with ETH, BNB, and XRP rebounding simultaneously, making it look like the correction is over.
But what I see is another set of data — in just one hour, over $142 million worth of short positions across the market were forcibly liquidated.
This means that at least part of this rally is not driven by new money actively buying, but by shorts being forced to buy back to close their positions.
These two types of rallies have completely different implications.
What’s even more noteworthy is the ETFs. BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $100 million on September 2, but the day before, there was a net outflow of about $236 million; meanwhile, ETH, XRP, and SOL ETFs experienced net outflows again.
So for now, I don’t see a "full institutional risk-on"; what I see is capital still choosing between BTC and other assets.
And tonight there is a real stress test: the US August nonfarm payrolls.
The market expects about 56,000 new jobs, but the US services price index just rose to 72.6. In other words, the Fed is facing a very troublesome combination — employment may weaken, but inflationary pressure has not simultaneously disappeared.Recently, the market has had two phases: first it grinds you down, then it slaps you in the face at night.
In the first half of the week, BTC hovered between 7.6–7.8, ETH around 2400, and SOL stuck at 100. Bears used interest rate hike expectations, oil prices, and bond yields as reasons. Until the night of September 3rd, when 76900 suddenly surged to 81300, ETH rose from 2368 to 2518, and SOL touched 105.6 from 98. It wasn’t a slow rise with bearish candles, but a short squeeze inside the box.
The pull wasn’t driven by some oracle. On the Fed side, Waller said that as long as inflation doesn’t dramatically worsen, they can hold steady in September, easing rate hike bets. The dollar softened accordingly. UK’s HL opened Bitcoin and Ethereum notes to 2 million customers starting the 3rd. SOL reported August app revenue of 143 million, leading the entire chain. On the 9th, the Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, with the market front-running. Spot ETFs were still seeing outflows a few days ago; this move looks more like a squeeze, not institutions flooding in in one day.
Now during the day, prices grind near 81000, 2500, and 104. The night session peaks at 81300, 2518, and 105.6; until volume confirms a breakout, these can only be considered upper resistance. The support levels to watch on the downside are 80200, 2480, and 103; if 79000, 2440, and 101 break, that night candle would signal a loss of momentum.
Above that, 82000–82800 is around the May highs; only after surpassing this can talk of 90000 begin. BTC｜9/4 Midday Quick Read
💰 Price: ≈80,940, 24h +4.15%
📊 High/Low: 81,332 / 76,975
🎯 Range: 80,000 support — 82,000–83,000 resistance (if not broken, it's a short squeeze rebound)
🐦 Why the bounce:
Waller dovish → September rate hike priced at 63% → 50%
10Y back to 4.76%, USD weakens
BTC pulled back from 77,000 to 81,000, 24h total short squeeze over $400 million
⚠️ Don't get carried away:
• 81,800–82,000 is a hard wall repeatedly hit since late August, RSI daily near overbought
• Spot BTC ETF net outflow of 236 million on 9/1, inflow of 101 million on 9/2, not a one-sided absorption
• Tonight 20:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls is the switch, strong data = retrace gains, weak data = test 82K+
#比特币再破80000美元 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 ##OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The September FOMC decision is live in OKX Outcome League, and my current read is that a hold still looks slightly more likely than a 25bp hike 🏛️
The data aren’t giving the Fed a clean answer. Hiring has softened, but the labor market hasn’t collapsed. Inflation has cooled too, yet it remains above the 2% target. That combination gives policymakers a reason to stay cautious rather than move quickly in either direction.
What could change my view? A strong payroll report, hotter inflation data or a clear shift in Fed language before September 17 📊
The interesting part is that this decision may come down to risk management rather than one headline number. Holding would preserve flexibility, while hiking would signal that inflation remains the dominant concern.
That’s my reasoning for now—but with several major releases still ahead, I wouldn’t call this an easy pick.Why did the market rise today? The answer lies with the Treasury!~~
U.S. stocks rose,
$BTC
rose, and gold also rose. Behind this, there is actually one more factor: the Treasury is buying bonds.
On September 3rd, the Treasury conducted a short-term debt repurchase with a cap of $12.5 billion. Starting September 9th, long-term debt repurchases will also be increased. These two factors are driving the market.
This is not the Federal Reserve easing, but the market will think this way: someone is suppressing long-term interest rates.
So you will see that when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls back, the dollar weakens, and stocks, gold, and BTC all catch a breather together.
The key here is still the U.S. Treasury bonds.
If the 10-year Treasury yield continues downward and the dollar is also suppressed, risk assets can still advance for a while.
But if the 10-year Treasury yield surges back above 4.8% and the dollar rebounds, then today's rally can easily turn into a short-term sentiment move.
So I think today's rise is not simply due to expectations of a rate cut.
It’s more like the market sees the Treasury starting to act and first grabbing a wave of liquidity expectations.
What really needs to be watched next are the employment data and whether the market accepts the increased long-term debt repurchases after September 9th. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
What exactly is this hot topic about (numbers first):
• Dell: Full-year revenue guidance raised from about $167 billion to $192 billion; AI server full-year raised from $60 billion to $74 billion; AI server orders over the past 12 months exceed $130 billion, this quarter orders $60.9 billion, backlog $95 billion. Computing infrastructure orders are still piling up.
• Broadcom Q3 FY26 (ended August 2): Revenue $29.591 billion (+86%), slightly above expectations; adjusted EPS $3.32 (+96%). AI semiconductor revenue $16.7 billion (YoY +221%, QoQ +54%), accounting for about 56% of total quarterly revenue.
Q4 total revenue guidance $34.8 billion (+93%), slightly below the market's $35–35.1 billion — this is the direct reason for the after-hours drop.
The conference call is the real drama: full-year AI revenue raised from $56 billion to $58 billion; FY2027 AI about $115 billion (doubling); FY2028 doubles again to $230 billion. Customers including Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta are all increasing custom chip orders.
• Snowflake: Revenue $1.55 billion (+35%) beat expectations, product revenue +37%, accelerating growth for the third consecutive quarter; full-year product revenue guidance raised from $5.84 billion to $6.07 billion (growth rate raised from 31% to 36%). After-hours surged over 20%.
In short: Hardware orders are still ongoing, software-side AI is also starting to contribute acceleration, but Broadcom's "nearly one quarter's total" guidance was not full enough, the market first voted with its feet, then pulled back the long-term doubling narrative.
Below is a copy ready to post on the community (in your usual tone: numbers, pitfalls, one question, no hype about getting rich):
Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance, Dell adds more — the computing power pot is still boiling, but the stock price has already priced in "must be perfect."
Last night two heavy earnings reports stacked together:
Dell raised full-year revenue guidance to $192 billion in one go, AI servers from $60 billion to $74 billion, backlog $95 billion. This shows one thing — racks, power supplies, servers are still moving into data centers, not just PPT.
Broadcom is more conflicted:
Q3 revenue $29.6 billion, AI semiconductors $16.7 billion (more than doubled YoY), the numbers look good. But Q4 total revenue guidance at $34.8 billion misses the market by 2–3 points, causing an after-hours drop. On the call, Chen Fuyang laid out the long-term: this year AI $58 billion, next year $115 billion, the year after $230 billion. Google, Anthropic, OpenAI are all lining up for custom chips.
Snowflake is the software-side comparison: product revenue accelerating for three consecutive quarters, full-year guidance raised, after-hours jumped 20%+. Data and AI workloads are really migrating to the cloud, not just a hardware solo act.
The pitfalls I see are more important than the numbers:
1 Beating expectations is no longer enough. Broadcom's revenue, EPS, AI revenue all beat expectations, yet it was still hit because the "guidance wasn't full enough." Now the pricing is "doubling next year still isn't enough, it has to double again." Once this expectation loosens, volatility will be large.
2 Hardware and software are not synchronized. Dell and Broadcom talk about orders and capacity locking; Snowflake talks about customers really burning tokens and migrating data. Both legs are moving, but the stock price reaction has already told the story in advance.
3 It's a signal for risk assets, not a switch. Computing capital expenditure is still ongoing, it doesn't mean ETH or altcoins must rally tonight. After earnings land, funds first digest "guidance flaws," then digest "long-term doubling." In those few hours, leverage is most likely to pay tuition.
My own notes are just three:
Watch order backlog and free cash flow, not the first after-hours candle;
Long-term doubling is the story, near-term 2-point miss is cash;
AI infrastructure hasn't reached "demand disappearance" yet, but "must be perfect every quarter" is already the high-level standard.
Which do you trust more — Dell's visible backlog, or Broadcom's call statement "AI $230 billion in 2028"?
(Numbers all from company earnings and calls, not investment advice. Manage your own positions for winter, don't treat earnings as a buy button.)
$BTC $OKB 🔥Nonfarm Payroll Preview
Tonight at 20:30, major data is about to be released
At 20:30 tonight, the US August nonfarm payroll data will be announced, which is the key factor influencing short-term market trends!
Personal forecast: overall employment weakens, but no crash-like decline expected
Estimated new jobs: 20,000-40,000 (market expectation 55,000), unemployment rate in the 4.1%-4.2% range, wage growth remains around 3.2%!
Three points of judgment:
① ADP private sector job additions only 38,000, hitting a new low this year, manufacturing employment data clearly cooling down
② July nonfarm data already recorded negative growth, May and June historical data revised down by over 100,000, employment is on a weakening trend, not a one-month random fluctuation
③ Job vacancies continue to decline, initial unemployment claims rise, overall corporate hiring willingness keeps dropping#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Non-farm payroll data will be released tomorrow
Both BTC and ETH surged significantly, market sentiment is high
Before any news release, the market tends to consume expectations in advance
There will be another small rally when tomorrow's news is announced
I will choose to short at the high after tomorrow's news release because the truly core heavy news will be released mid-month. Once the momentum from the non-farm data fades, the market will fall into panic again. $BTC $ETH $SOL Don't just focus on the K-line. Today's real signal is in the ETF: BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of about $94.54 million in one day, after a net outflow of $2.36 million the previous day. Stablecoin exchange net outflows turned positive for the first time in 113 days. This is the key to whether 80,000 can hold firmly.
The strength and weakness are clear. BTC dominance remains steady at 59.5%. ETH follows the rise, but the spot ETF actually withdrew $480,000. In this rebound, ETH is a follower, not the leader. Leverage levels haven't gone crazy, and total network positions haven't surged, indicating it's not a full leverage push to the top, but rather short covering plus spot replenishment. Early in the session, profits chased up 5-6%, but there is the non-farm payroll at night. On the weekly level, this wave has risen from 77K without a pullback. Holding leverage over the weekend is a gamble. Macro sentiment was pulled from fear to greed by a single comment from Waller, but next week's CPI is the real pricing anchor. Historically, September is weak in the cycle. Before the FOMC on the 16th, consolidation is likely to replace a one-sided move. If it can hold above 80,000, bulls have won half the battle.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 #特斯拉股价走强，无人出租车成焦点 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $SKHY
The storage big three surge 5%, Nvidia steady at $228, but is there a hidden risk behind the celebration?
On September 4th, the storage sector was on fire. SK Hynix surged 5% intraday, with its stock price soaring to 1,676,000 KRW, Samsung rose over 3%, SanDisk also climbed over 5% in after-hours trading, and Nvidia closed up 1.8% firmly at $228.
But something feels off.
According to the latest data from TrendForce, the price increase momentum for memory chips in Q3 has clearly weakened—some month-on-month increases have narrowed to within 10%, PC customers have started rejecting orders, and smartphone brands are cutting back on inventory. Yet Bank of America claims there is still 10%-20% room for spot prices to rise in September, with supply fulfillment rates falling below 50%.
One side says prices can’t rise further, the other insists they will—who will win this battle?
What’s more worth pondering is that SanDisk has soared nearly 30 times this year, but its stock price has retreated over 55% from the June peak. The crazier the rise, the faster the fall—is this growth in performance or just a bubble?
The AI story is still being told, but the consumer side is already lagging behind. How much longer can this storage frenzy last? #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注
Did you profit from storage? See you in the comments.The midday surge was obviously driven by northbound capital, specifically targeting liquor and pharmaceuticals.
But after the rally, there was no follow-through, like they hadn’t eaten, indicating very few momentum traders.
Something strange happened in the crypto space: a veteran mining company announced bankruptcy restructuring, yet $BTC actually rose.
The market interpreted this as "bad news fully priced in"—you see, logic is always alive.
My friend cut losses in the morning and was kicking himself in the afternoon; this kind of thing happens daily.
The hottest sector in the stock market right now is the robotics concept because the industry conference is next week, and funds are positioning early.
But I think these expectation-driven stocks usually see selling on the day of the conference.
Today, government bond futures rose again, indicating big money is still seeking safety; risk appetite hasn’t picked up.
Liquidity in crypto is also poor; even moderately large orders can break through several price levels.
$ETH is moving along with $BTC, but gas fees suddenly spiked, possibly because someone is deploying a contract.
I checked on-chain data; indeed, a whale is accumulating, but the amount isn’t large, so it has limited reference value.
This afternoon, consumer data came out below expectations, and the broader market softened further.
It seems economic recovery isn’t that smooth; expectations need to be lowered.
I’m holding cash now, waiting—either for a sharp drop to buy in or a breakout with volume to chase a bit.
I’d rather skip these mediocre market moves in between.
People in the group are still shouting about the start of a bull market, but I just look at my account and smile silently.
Reduce positions, sleep, and wake up to a new day.The crypto market trades around the clock, but traditional banks' dollar settlements are still restricted by business hours. Now, SoFi and Kraken are trying to break down this "capital time wall." On September 3, SoFi and Kraken's parent company Payward announced a strategic partnership: 🔥 institutional Kraken clients can settle US dollars 🔥 24×7 hours via the SoFi Exchange Network. Kraken plans to launch the stablecoin SoFiUSD 🔥 issued by banks, supporting 1:1 exchange of US dollars 🔥. SoFi will use Kraken Prime as an additional source of crypto asset liquidity. SoFi official announcement What truly deserves attention in this cooperation is not just the "bank and exchange collaboration," but a new funding chain is forming: bank accounts → SoFiUSD → crypto exchanges → BTC, ETH, and other assets. In the past, when institutions experienced sharp market swings on weekends or overnight, US dollar transfers, margin replenishments, and trade settlements might be limited by bank time. If round-the-clock settlement is truly implemented, the efficiency of institutional funds entering the crypto market is expected to improve. 🟢 Positive Paths If SoFiUSD gains institutional adoption and generates real trading volume on Kraken, friction between banks' dollars and the crypto market may decrease. Faster capital movement and shorter settlement times usually benefit the most liquid $BTC and $ETH first. Meanwhile,Tonight's non-farm payroll data will very likely determine whether $BTC can truly hold above the 80,000 mark this round, or if it's just another misleading false breakout.
The market expects about 56,000 new jobs added in the US in August, compared to -23,000 in July, indicating a slight recovery in employment. BTC is currently stuck around 81,000. Last night's rebound was mainly driven by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, falling US Treasury yields, and cooling rate hike expectations.
If the employment data is significantly hotter than expected, US Treasury yields will rise again, rate hike expectations will return, and the 80,000 level will face pressure once more.
If the data is moderately weak and yields continue to fall, BTC will have a chance to turn the 80,000 resistance into solid support.
But worse employment data is not necessarily better. If the employment data collapses too severely, the market will start to worry about an economic recession, and risky assets like crypto won't hold up.
The ideal scenario for BTC: employment cools down gradually, but the economy does not directly collapse.
Tonight at 20:30 is the moment to witness a miracle. Either I blow up, or I make a killing.
What do you think? Will my position explode tonight, or will I make a fortune?
⚠️ The above is just my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility. The crypto market is risky; invest cautiously.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $ZEC $ARB Capital flow divergence: Conservatives and speculators each take what they need
The crypto ETF data on September 1 reveals a subtle rift in market sentiment: Bitcoin saw an outflow exceeding $230 million, while ETH, SOL, and XRP collectively attracted over $35 million. This is not a simple case of "abandoning the big for the small," but a clear stratification of strategy.
Bitcoin's outflow is more likely due to profit-taking or hedging under macro pressure rather than a collapse of confidence. As the "dollar index" of the crypto market, it carries the strongest macro sentiment weight.
The inflows into alternative assets reflect two distinctly different speculative mindsets:
· ETH represents the "ecosystem value camp," betting on the fundamentals of the application layer;
· SOL and XRP carry more of an "event-driven" speculative nature, revolving around performance narratives and regulatory progress for short-term plays.
This is not a call for an altcoin season, as funds are not evenly distributed across all small coins but are highly concentrated in leading alternative assets. The market is bidding farewell to the "rising tide lifts all boats" logic and entering a phase of "precision targeting."
The next wave of capital will most likely follow two main paths: either flowing into truly revenue-generating application-oriented public chains or betting on the next most likely candidate to pass regulatory "clearance." The illusion of broad-based gains fades; the era of refined selection has arrived.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 On September 3rd, BTC once surged to around $81,759, with a single-day increase of about 6%. This rise was not triggered by a sudden pump of some altcoin, but rather a rebound in risk assets following a global decline in bond yields and the market's renewed expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged.
I think this change is quite crucial.
A few days ago, BTC was still around $77,000, with the market feeling pressured by geopolitical situations, oil prices, and interest rate expectations. Now, within one day, it has climbed back above $81,000, indicating that capital remains highly sensitive to macro liquidity.
It is worth noting that in August, the net inflow into US spot BTC ETFs was about $3.52 billion, making it one of the strongest months this year.
My judgment is:
ETF funds are still present, and once macro pressure eases, BTC's resilience remains strong.
But whether it can firmly hold above $80,000 is, in my opinion, more important than today's 6% rise.
If bond yields continue to fall and ETF inflows persist, the logic for BTC to break past previous highs will become increasingly smooth.
Conversely, if yields rise again and ETF inflows lag, this surge above $80,000 might just be a liquidity rebound.
What I most want to see now is whether capital is willing to keep buying above $80,000.
Do you think this is a true breakout or just another pump-and-dump?BTC has hit $80,000 again.
But this time, don’t just focus on the word "breakthrough."
There’s actually a supply wall on-chain pressing down above.
Currently, about 68% of BTC supply is in profit. Compared to May, roughly 600,000 more BTC have entered the profit zone, which at current prices amounts to about $47 billion in potential profit supply.
To put it simply:
Those who were previously stuck are starting to break even.
Those who bought at low prices are starting to make money.
What do people do after making money?
Some continue to hold.
Others sell directly.
So the real test above $80,000 isn’t whether the market has a story, but whether there’s enough new money to absorb the old chips.
That’s also why sometimes when the price breaks through, it’s actually easier to see sharp volatility.
Because with every rise, more people think:
"That’s enough, I’ll sell a bit first."
So don’t think of $80,000 as a simple numeric barrier.
It’s more like a scale.
On the left is the profit-taking side, on the right is the new buying side.
Whoever is heavier calls the shots.
$BTC SOL really had an on-chain cost reduction today, but the "90% rent reduction" hasn't been fully implemented at once yet.
The Solana Foundation update shows that the first step of SIMD-0437 went live on the mainnet on September 3rd, with the per-byte deposit parameter dropping from 6960 to 6333, a 9% reduction initially. The second step is expected to expand the reduction to 27% by mid-September; the full 90% reduction will require three more steps, targeting Agave 4.4 and November this year.
The "rent" here is more like an account storage deposit, which can be refunded when the account is closed. Older accounts will have a small amount of extra SOL due to the lowered minimum deposit; the newly added official WithdrawExcessLamports instruction allows reclaiming the balance without needing to close the token account.
I currently see this only as a cost reduction for developers and large-scale account openings, not as a direct catalyst for SOL price. Ordinary users don’t need to rush to find unfamiliar "claim websites"; it’s safer to wait until wallets properly integrate the official instruction.
Source: Solana Foundation. Personal record, not investment advice.
$SOL OKB is $109, with a 24-hour trading volume of 32 million.
For comparison: OKX ranks in the top three globally by trading volume, but OKB's market cap is only 2.3 billion. BNB's market cap is fifty to sixty billion, CRO is over ten billion. OKX's user base is not inferior to CRO's; the market cap gap lies in the ecosystem—BSC runs hundreds of DApps, while X Layer is just getting started.
X Layer is OKX's L2; its mainnet has been upgraded and integrated with Chainlink CCIP. But there are no applications on-chain, no capital locked in, which is the fundamental reason why OKB can't take off.
I think it's okay to slowly accumulate below 100, but I won't chase above 100. Stop loss at 80. The reason is OKX won't collapse; in the worst case, it could drop to 46, but if the ecosystem takes off, the upside is huge.
The risk-reward ratio is decent; what's lacking is patience. #Strive Accelerates Buying, Rushing to Become the Second Largest BTC Holder Among Listed Entities
**Latest Data**
Strive increased its BTC holdings by 3,156 in August, totaling 23,156 BTC, with a market value close to $1.8 billion. Warrants exercised are in place allowing an additional $1.4 billion investment to buy more, aiming to challenge for the position of the second largest BTC holder among listed companies. On the market, $BTC is at 81,086, with the overall market fluctuating within a range; corporate buying supports the market.
Market Consensus
Bullish views believe listed companies continue to enter the market, providing a floor for medium- to long-term holdings; cautious views warn that funds come from equity financing, and a weakening US stock market would directly cut off subsequent purchasing power, so this should not be taken as a signal of steady price increase.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Corporate accumulation consumes circulating supply but represents conditional buying, mainly improving medium- to long-term holding structure; short-term trends remain dominated by non-farm payrolls and US Treasury yields.
Personal Opinion (Personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, this is solely a personal view and not investment advice)
This is a medium- to long-term positive factor and is not suitable for short-term trading; position sizes should still be controlled as the data approaches this phase. Last night, with just one sentence from Waller, 100,000 short positions were liquidated. $BTC surged to a high of 82,300, nearly breaking the previous high of 82,850. #比特币再破80000美元
But I still think this is a short squeeze, the bull market hasn't arrived. Brothers who missed out, don't rush, because the macro situation hasn't improved:
Crude oil is still at 96, hasn't dropped;
Core CPI has long been at 2.6%, still far from the 2% target;
The net inflow of BTC ETF funds in August was only 3.5 billion, less than the over 4.5 billion outflow in June;
Before 10/11, the bilateral 1% liquidity had a depth of 260 million, now only 120 million; monthly trading volume is only 900 billion, still far from the previous 2.6 trillion.
With so many macro conditions unimproved, I don't think $BTC breaking through MA120 and MA200 means the bull market has come.
Of course, maybe my judgment is wrong, after all, bull markets grow in doubt and end in frenzy.
But FOMO from not having enough position size, ultimately breaking your own position discipline and mindset, is even more frightening.SanDisk's movement today, those who understand know — on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, funds have already started to rush ahead.
The market plunged directly to 1511 in the morning session, looking like it was going to collapse, but then it was forcibly pulled back to close at 1554 in the late session, and now it's even at 1580 in the dark pool. The turnover rate for the whole day is nearly 6%, with a trading volume of 13.4 billion USD. This volume would be unusual on a normal day, but on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the meaning is clearer: someone is positioning in advance.
The logic is actually quite straightforward. Yesterday's small ADP report was a surprise low, with August ADP at only 37,000, a new low for the year; tonight's non-farm payroll market expectation is only 56,000. If it disappoints again, the probability of a rate hike in September will drop from 60%. When rate hike expectations cool down, who bounces first? Highly elastic AI storage stocks — like SanDisk, whose valuation is fully dependent on liquidity and expectations.
In short, the market is betting: weak data → no rate hike → loosening funds → high beta stocks take off. SanDisk's late session surge today is funds betting on this scenario in advance.
But to be fair, if the non-farm payrolls unexpectedly exceed expectations, those who rushed in today will be the ones left holding the bag tomorrow. The pre-data celebration is a Schrödinger's rally.
At 20:30 tonight, we will see the real outcome!!This big bullish candle was half "donated" by the shorts
📊 On September 4, BTC was around $80,800, up over 4% in 24 hours, briefly touching $82,300 overnight, a new high since mid-May.
① Fed Governor Waller turned dovish, cutting the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September from 63% to 50%; ② The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 4.76%, the dollar weakened, and risk assets collectively rebounded; ③ Over $400 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, shorts covering forced the price above the 80k mark.
Coinbase's 7-day premium average has been negative for over four months, with no real money following in during US trading hours; ETF funds flowed out $236 million the day before, flowing in one day and out the next, unstable.
This rebound driven by macro shifts and short squeeze is not confirmation of a trend reversal. For 80k to turn from resistance to support, tonight's nonfarm payrolls need to give the nod. Leverage should be reduced first—after shorts are liquidated, don't be the next to get wiped out chasing longs.
#BTC #Bitcoin #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC # Waller: August inflation determines whether there will be a rate hike in September, personal view
Federal Reserve Governor Waller gave a clear conditional statement, largely tying the September voting rights to the August inflation data, forming a subtle divergence from the hawkish stance at Jackson Hole. Market expectations for a rate hike in September quickly fell back to around 50%, according to Sina Finance. In his view, employment is already near full level, reducing the weight of the employment report, and inflation is now the core benchmark for policy.
If August CPI continues to cool, he tends to support holding steady; if inflation rebounds again, even slightly, it will push him to support a rate hike. He also reminded that the current interest rate's constraint on the economy is relatively weak, so any inflation fluctuation leaves room for tightening.
This means the September decision has evolved into a data-driven mode, with the impact of non-farm payrolls weakened, and inflation becoming the ultimate trigger. On the asset side, hotter inflation will continue to push up U.S. Treasury yields, suppressing risk assets; inflation cooling benefits U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto asset recovery. At this stage, the long-short game intensifies, and it is not advisable to bet early; waiting for inflation to settle before responding is more prudent.
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and investment requires caution. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Personally, I think $TRIA is still very low right now. Many days ago, I went long on this coin, and finally it surged. Hearing this, do you think I made a big profit? Actually, I went long too early. My cost price is about $0.78, and I'm still far from my cost. So I say, going long at this level is still very appropriate. If you go long on $TRIA now, the cost price is much lower than mine. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that during the phase of rising contract open interest, the long-short ratio first rises and then falls. This shows that in the early stages of its rise, many bulls were building positions at the bottom. This means this round of rally should have been well prepared. Let me look at the data over a longer period. We can see that in mid-August, both contract open interest and long-short ratio saw a sharp rise in sync. This is actually not a good thing, because there was a sharp drop in mid-August. This means that after reaching a certain level, there will be significant resistance. Unless the market makers accumulate most of the bulls' chips during the subsequent prolonged consolidation. Because after the drop, the price experiences a relatively long fluctuation, so it's possible that the market makers have accumulated their chips. —————————————————— In my current mind, I think there are three coins that might become 'monsters'The yen is rebounding strongly, the USD weakens → an extremely favorable environment for Gold and Bitcoin 🇯🇵. The yen strengthens: • Expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike on September 18 soared after a series of hawkish speeches. • Japanese investors have just net sold $5.3B of foreign bonds, while there is speculation that GPIF will increase the proportion of Japanese bonds. → The US-Japan interest rate differential may narrow, money flows start to flow back to Japan. ⚠️ But the story may not be over. JPMorgan estimates that there are still about $100B of JPY short positions. If USD/JPY breaks 1