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The better the data, the more the market falls
Last night’s nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations, yet a magical scenario unfolded: US stocks, gold, and BTC all plunged, with BTC directly dropping below 80,000.
August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding the expected 56,000. Normally, strong employment is good news, but the market interpreted it completely differently—an overheated economy raises inflation risks, the probability of a Fed rate hike surged above 60%, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets were sold off.
Trump disagrees strongly with this market logic; he posted that economic growth does not lead to inflation, good data should benefit the stock market, and now this market mechanism is distorted.
With less than two months until the election, his demand is clear: cut rates quickly to stimulate the economy and win votes. Vice President Pence has also publicly called for rate cuts, indicating a coordinated campaign.
Ironically, the hawkish Waugh is the Fed Chair personally appointed by Trump. The two have directly opposing policy directions. Trump even threatened that if rates are not cut, trade with surplus countries will be halted. The White House team is continuously calculating the huge interest costs high rates impose on the US, maintaining pressure.
For the crypto space:
If Trump pushes through rate cuts, BTC could benefit from a wave of policy tailwinds; but if CPI inflation rebounds and the Fed continues tightening, rate hike expectations will keep suppressing the market.
The situation is delicate now: the president is desperately calling for rate cuts, while Wall Street is betting on hikes. A macro tug-of-war is underway, and short-term market movements will be volatile. $BTC ETF inflows of $900 million in two days, so why is BTC still hovering around 80,000?
I reviewed the ETF data from the past two days.
Farside statistics show that the US spot $BTC BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $730.8 million on September 3 and another net inflow of about $174.6 million on September 4, totaling approximately $905.4 million over two days.
The buying volume is not small.
As of the evening of September 5, OKX's BTC/USDT spot price was about $79,717, with a 24-hour high of about $79,875; the price is still fluctuating around 80,000.
One explanation is that the supply above has not been fully absorbed. Glassnode mentioned in its September 2 report that there is long-term supply pressure around $83,000 to $86,000 for BTC. The report also pointed out that the proportion of supply in profit at similar price levels has increased from 65% to 68%.
With more profitable chips, ETF inflows need to first absorb the sell orders before the price has room to continue rising.
Next, I will watch two signals: whether ETF net inflows can continue and whether spot trading can keep up. If both improve simultaneously, $80,000 has a better chance of turning from a contested level into a new price range.
Do you think the market is absorbing sell orders now, or has the positive news already been priced in? $BTC $ETH Harmak turns hawkish again: September rate hike expectations heat up, how long can BTC's rebound last?
After the 162,000 non-farm payrolls, the biggest change in the market is not the price, but the Fed's internal voices beginning to reconsolidate.
Cleveland Fed President Harmak emphasized again: the current policy is not tight enough, inflation is still too high, "it's time to take action." She was one of the three officials supporting a rate hike in July, and strong employment data undoubtedly strengthens the hawkish camp's voice.
Market pricing also changed rapidly:
The probability of a September rate hike has risen back to around 60%, and some institutions have even started to delay rate cut expectations.
So the real deciding factor for the last card of the September FOMC is still the CPI.
If CPI continues to exceed expectations:
Strong employment + high inflation
→ rate hike expectations strengthen
→ USD and US Treasury yields strengthen
→ BTC faces short-term pressure.
If CPI cools significantly:
The market may reprice a "pause in rate hikes," giving risk assets a breather.
For BTC, the key area remains $77,000–$80,000.
Holding above $80,000 again means the market starts to digest rate pressure; breaking below $77,000 requires caution against further pullbacks.
The market is not trading bull or bear now, but whether the Fed needs to continue tightening next. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace has been redefined by rate expectations. $BTC #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% This damn market has delayed my $ETH takeoff. Locked positions are locked to the extreme, yet the price can't break above 2500, why?
Today, no talk about ETF inflows, no talk about upgrades, no talk about L2, let's talk about the three sources of funds draining ETH's circulating supply:
1. Staking rate at 34.94%, with a 36-day queue to enter, and no one is queuing to unstake, indicating the circulating supply is shrinking;
2. BitMine alone holds 5% of the total supply, and the ETF's accumulated 12.2 billion funds only go in, never out;
3. Locked positions absorb the spot supply, leaving the circulating supply full of leveraged longs at 72.1%.
According to supply and demand logic, it should have taken off long ago, but it's being dragged down by $BTC. So, Binance Coin is my most favored structure for Q4: a compressed spring, a lighter market cap, and when macro turns, it will have the greatest elasticity across the market.$BTC just pushed its $XAU ratio to around 17.6 ounces, marking one of its strongest levels since early this year. That means one Bitcoin can now buy nearly 18 ounces of gold. Not bad at all. 👀 So what’s driving it? Global fiscal conditions are getting messier, government debt keeps piling up, and capital continues treating BTC and gold as alternative stores of value. But BTC has way more beta. When the risk appetite comes back, Bitcoin can sprint while gold is still warming up. That said, I’m g$BTC is still hovering around $80K, but the bigger picture looks better than it seems. The BTC/gold ratio recently hit 18.17, its highest level since January, meaning Bitcoin has been outperforming gold even as gold climbs.
Still, this doesn’t prove money is leaving gold for BTC. It only shows relative strength. The real test comes during pullbacks. If BTC can hold up better than gold when markets weaken, the “digital gold” narrative gets much stronger.#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOuXiaomi is still hovering around 3.6, and the previously mentioned bottom area is indeed consolidating.
Four days ago, I posted that the bottom area was near 3.5 for Xiaomi, and now it’s still at 3.6, neither falling nor rising. The market is indeed consolidating, and patience is more important than anything.
Smartphone shipments dropped 26.5% in Q2, but the ASP hit a historic high of 1351 yuan, actively cutting low-end models to offset storage price increases. 9.2 billion yuan R&D investment is focused on automobiles, with the Pengcheng SUV launching in September. No profits are expected in the short term, but the cash on hand is sufficient. From the market perspective, support around 3.52-3.54 has been repeatedly confirmed, and short-term resistance is at 3.65-3.68. Volume hasn’t picked up, indicating that large funds haven’t acted yet, so wait.
The target price in research reports is still far off, and management says the toughest times are almost over. Cutting losses at this position isn’t worthwhile; wait until smartphone gross margins stabilize and Pengcheng delivery data is released. The bottom is formed through consolidation, not by shouting. No rush.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$XIAOMI
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
$ZEC The hardest hit in this rally aren't those who didn't buy, but the group who thought 800 was too high, 900 dared not chase, and at 1000 started waiting for a pullback—only for the price to push even higher, leaving them feeling bruised.
It recently surged to around $1050, continuously hitting nearly a decade high. A month ago it was hovering around 500, now it has doubled, rising nearly 94% in 30 days, and an absurd 2300% over the year. This kind of movement can no longer be explained by just the phrase "privacy coin hype."
After Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF launched, it brought in at least $34.4 million in net inflows; the privacy narrative has reignited, miners' computing power is entering the market, and capital, story, and chips have all collided perfectly—making it hard not to rise.
The most brutal are the shorts. On the day it broke $1000, about $36.6 million in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, of which $34.5 million were shorts. This is very typical in crypto—the more people think "it's so high it must fall," the more open short positions pile up; the more shorts there are, the more the price is pushed up, and forced liquidations turn into buying pressure, ultimately shorts fueling their own price rise.
From 500 to 1000 you can rely on the trend, above $1000 it’s all about sentiment, liquidity, and who finally takes over the baton!!Recent comprehensive review of the crypto market
⚠️ Market review only, does not constitute any investment advice, contracts carry high risk
I. Summary of key macro events
1. The market initially bet on weakening employment and priced in rate cuts and easing expectations, causing funds to slightly push up coin prices in advance; Federal Reserve official Waller expressed dovish views, and the market generally expected rates to remain unchanged.
2. Nonfarm payroll data surprised: 162,000 new jobs added, far exceeding the expected 55,000, showing strong employment resilience. The market immediately repriced the probability of rate hikes, with September hike expectations rising close to 60%, the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously, and risk assets collectively came under pressure and declined.
3. The two most important upcoming market dates: September 11 CPI inflation data, and September 16 Federal Reserve meeting; these two results will set the short-term major direction.
II. Price and fund performance
• BTC: surged ahead to test 81,300 before data, quickly dropped to 78,600 after nonfarm release, then slightly recovered; the 80,000 level shifted from support to short-term psychological resistance.
• ETH: more volatile, broke below key support at 2,500, fell back to around 2,450 and oscillated; the market shifted from a one-sided bullish trend to a wide-range oscillation driven by macro data.
III. Summary of bullish and bearish logic
✅ Bullish logic: If next week's CPI inflation falls, rate hike expectations cool down, and easing expectations return, coin prices will see a corrective rebound.
❌ Bearish logic: If CPI rises again, inflation remains sticky, the Fed retains the option to hike rates, liquidity tightens, and selling pressure at high levels leads to further declines. $SOL This round of rebound, the ones pushing the price up and the ones buying are not the same group. Retail accounts are adding to long positions even as the price rises, while large holders' position ratios are being suppressed—one side chases, the other distributes, the directions are opposite. The smoother the price moves, the more it looks like big money is handing off the assets to the price chasers. Leverage is not overheated. The fee rate has just moved from negative back close to zero, longs are not paying a premium for their positions, so no crowded positions have built up that could trigger a liquidation cascade. Therefore, this is not a short squeeze scenario, but a natural correction under low leverage, with limited intensity. Position size is less than 90% of trading volume, turnover dominates the market, and not much new money is coming in. Judgment: A 3.1% amplitude indicates longs cannot push the upper boundary, tending to fall back to test previous lows. Conditions to turn bullish: large holders' position ratio rises again, aligning with retail, and the fee rate remains steadily positive. If both occur simultaneously, the above scenario is invalid.BTC Investment Log Issue 9 | September 5, 2026 Weekly Report — Key Point: Bottom Range Position and Next Cycle Analysis Statistics Date: September 5, 2026 BTC Price: Approximately $79,700–80,000 2025 High: Around $126,000 From Previous High: About -36.7% The Most Important Change This Week: BTC has rapidly rebounded from around $63,000 in August to near $80,000. The bottom "price zone" has not been broken, but the market has clearly moved away from the deepest panic zone. It now feels more like a "rebound confirmation phase after bottom formation" rather than a new round of deep bottoming underway. ⸻ I. Core Conclusions for This Week ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 1. Bottom range: Still holding, but the focus has clearly shifted upward. Combining the 200-week moving average, MVRV, AHR999, SOPR, market sentiment, and historical cycle patterns: First bottom observation zone: $62,000–68,000→ This is the most important long-term value zone of this round. Second bottom/pullback support zone: $68,000–74,000 → If there is a subsequent correction, this area is currently the most noteworthy support zone. Current $79,000–82,000: This is no longer the ideal "deep bottom-fishing zone," but rather a confirmation zone after a bottom rebound. The 200-week moving average is currently around $64,700, and BTC has regained about 23% above it. Historically, the 200-week moving average has long held important bottom reference valueThe current AI U.S. stock market is in an "Autumn Volatility" phase — the industry fundamentals remain strong (earnings reports from Nvidia, Dell, etc. continue to exceed expectations, and AI capital expenditures are still expanding), but high valuations, crowded positions, rising interest rates, and midterm election uncertainties are suppressing the market.
The market's main theme is evolving from "sustained prosperity in computing power infrastructure" to a dual engine of "computing power + software application commercialization." Short-term trends depend on: ① the September FOMC interest rate statement;
② whether inflation and non-farm payroll data can create a resonance of "macro cooling + AI realization"; ③ the November midterm election results.
Most institutions believe the AI bull market is not over yet but has shifted from "broad rally" to a phase of "selecting individual stocks and focusing on earnings realization." $SNDK The biggest problem with Robinhood Chain right now has never been about not making money, but whether this money can be made sustainably. Let's first look at the most impressive data: on September 2, the chain's single-day revenue surged to $4.01 million, surpassing the combined total of Solana, Ethereum, BSC, and Base—14 times their total; on September 4, it even hit a new single-day revenue high of $6.12 million. The annualized revenue over the past seven days reached $1.1 billion. Having been online for only two months, its revenue has already crushed many established public chains. Sounds insanely impressive, right? But don't rush to praise it yet. Looking at the capital flow and user structure, it's a completely different picture: on September 4 alone, the chain saw a net outflow of over $21 million, with TVL only at $1.37 billion, down more than two-thirds from the peak of $4 billion in October last year; 92.9% of on-chain accounts have only interacted with Meme, and only 3.4% of users have used tokenized stocks. In other words, people come to this chain just to speculate on Meme, not to conduct serious financial business. What's even more concerning is that the Meme hype is clearly fading: as the Pons launchpad, which supports half of the chain's revenue, the token graduation rate dropped from 0.8% in July to 0.11% in early September. Out of 20,000 tokens issued in a single day, fewer than 20 survive, with most tokens going to zero upon launch; moreover, Robinhood Chain's 90-day full gas fee subsidy is set to expire at the end of September. The previously near-zero cost of issuing tokens that supported the issuance density is about to end Bitcoin and Ethereum pushed sharply higher ahead of the U.S. jobs report, with BTC briefly trading above $81K. Then the data hit. August NFP came in at 162K vs. roughly 56K expected, reigniting Fed rate-hike expectations and triggering a pullback below $80K. Now, I think the market has a higher probability of dipping further before attempting another sustained move higher. A $3K+ correction after BTC pushed toward $80K+ is not unusual. It can simply be a healthy reset after an aggressive move. FWeekend consolidation period, only coins with catalysts get attention, those without stories can only follow the market grind!
$BTC Strong non-farm payrolls pushed the rate hike probability back up, causing BTC to briefly drop below 80,000, but ETF funds have re-entered heavily, with recent single-day net inflows around $731 million. Macro factors are suppressing valuations while institutions are accumulating; BTC now looks like a tug-of-war between high interest rates and long-term allocation funds.
$RE Around 0.45 with shrinking volume, small-cap coins are easiest to be forgotten by funds during weekend low liquidity, with trading volume dropping from 7 million to 4 million indicating waning interest. Without continuous catalysts, such coins struggle to maintain heat; wait for the next news before considering, don’t chase now.
$SOL Still holding near $100, with a trading format upgrade on September 9 and Alpenglow at the end of the month as fundamental catalysts. On-chain activity has cooled but the developer ecosystem remains. Holding 98 is a strong consolidation; wait for BTC to stabilize before a second upward push.
ARB dropped 6% from 0.131 high, after a 49% weekly rise L2 needs to digest gains; Robinhood Chain narrative remains but short-term is overbought; BCH up 2.7% at 253, old coin catching up without new narrative; SNDK surged nearly 12% against the trend, AI is re-trading NAND and enterprise SSDs as scarce assets; MSTR weakened following BTC, essentially BTC with high leverage, it won’t rise without BTC stabilizing!
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% 📊 The data has already diverged. On September 4, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $731 million, marking a strong level for the year; Meanwhile, the ETH spot ETF also recorded about $141 million in inflows. But the problem is: capital entering crypto does not mean immediately entering the entire altcoin market. In my view, institutions are turning "buying crypto" into more detailed asset allocation: BTC remains the core position, ETH and some mainstream assets are beginning to receive independent funds, while many altcoins still lack sustained incremental capital. This is also why, when BTC rises, many people wonder, "Why hasn't my altcoin moved yet?" — The market may not be experiencing a traditional full-scale altseason, but rather a tiered capital structure. Of course, this judgment can also be wrong. If assets like ETH and SOL continue to see net ETF inflows and BTC's share starts to decline, capital divergence is more likely to truly occur. So I want to discuss a question: In the next phase of the "Altseason," will BTC funds naturally overflow, or must new institutional capital inflows emerge first? #Crypto #Altcoin #OKXOrbit $BTC $ETH $SOL #HammackBacksHike #RobinhoodChainRevenue #BTCGoldRatioHigh decision. But please don't drag other people into the same hole. If you're going to defend a project, at least be honest and transparent about what you're defending. I've posted evidence and screenshots for the issues I've raised — including ecosystem projects disappearing, nodes leaving, exchange delistings, and concerns around project-side selling and exits. If all of these claims can be backed by actual records and on-chain or public evidence, then what exactly are the bulls still arguing abOKX ranks 84th, so why is ATS ranked 2nd?
If you only look at the OKX profit leaderboard, Valid-Launch-Monkey is not very prominent.
As of today's public data at 20:07:
OKX leaderboard rank: 84th
90-day cumulative profit: +5.26%
Public win rate: 61.11%
Public lead time: 553 days
But among the 100 public Lead Traders I track,
his ATS is 88.29, FORMAL, Confidence HIGH,
ranked 2nd in the official ATS.
The reason is not how much he earned in 90 days.
What I pay more attention to is:
The maximum drawdown in 90 days is only 2.22%.
Some make money through short-term bursts,
while others control drawdowns within a smaller range.
So I don’t just ask:
"How much did he earn?"
I want to ask:
"Is this profit stable?"
ATS is not a future profit prediction,
it just looks at profit, drawdown, duration, and data completeness together.
I don’t look for the person with the highest 90-day profit,
I want to track those who may last longer in the long term.
Data as of: 2026-09-05 20:10 (UTC+8)
Based solely on OKX public data, for research purposes only, not investment advice.Bitcoin and Ethereum pushed sharply higher ahead of the U.S. jobs report, with BTC briefly trading above $81K. Then the data hit. August NFP came in at 162K vs. roughly 56K expected, reigniting Fed rate-hike expectations and triggering a pullback below $80K. Now, I think the market has a higher probability of dipping further before attempting another sustained move higher. A $3K+ correction after BTC pushed toward $80K+ is not unusual. It can simply be a healthy reset after an aggressive move. F🔥 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | WHAT ACTUALLY DRIVES THEM?
$BTC derives strength from monetary credibility.
$ETH derives strength from economic coordination — the more applications and assets use Ethereum, the more important its settlement layer becomes.
$SOL derives strength from execution — making high-frequency, low-cost on-chain activity practical at scale.
BTC is trusted.
ETH is utilized.
SOL is accelerated.
Different value engines. Same race: making blockchain useful beyond speculation. ⚡🧠 Trump wants to strike Iran while also aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict— which should the crypto market listen to?
Trump has been busy lately, dropping two major moves in one day.
On September 4th, he declared at the White House: the US military "may soon" launch an attack on Iran's Fordow facility, "tracking all personnel movements and ready to act if things go wrong." Fordow is an underground nuclear site in Iran; if a strike happens, oil prices will surge directly, inflationary pressures will return, and expectations for rate hikes will intensify— a negative for crypto.
On the same day, he confirmed that envoy Whitaker and son-in-law Kushner will visit Moscow and Kyiv with a "peace plan" to end the war. If Russia and Ukraine truly cease fire, geopolitical risks will cool down, and risk appetite will rise— a positive for crypto.
One side ignites, the other extinguishes— which should the market heed?
My take: in the short term, watch Iran because oil prices are a real inflation variable; in the long term, watch Russia-Ukraine because peace expectations can boost overall risk appetite. But both are just disturbances; the core remains the Federal Reserve.
After nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations at 162,000, the probability of a September rate hike surged, and BTC fell from 82,000 to 79,000. At this level, bulls and bears are waiting for signals; geopolitical news will only amplify volatility, not change the direction.
Do you think Trump will really strike Iran or is it just talk? Place your bets in the comments. Tomorrow, I’ll track weekend capital flows— follow me to get the first updates.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #Trump #IranSituation #RussiaUkrainePeace #MarketAnalysis
The above is market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Every time I hear "Federal Reserve rate hike," two types of people appear online.
The first type:
"It's over! A global financial crisis is coming soon!"
The second type:
"Major opportunity! Hurry and buy the dip!"
These two voices are actually very eye-catching.
Because fear and sudden wealth are the two biggest traffic-driving emotions.
But reality is usually not so dramatic.
A Federal Reserve rate hike is not the end of the world.
A rate cut is not a wealth giveaway.
What it really changes is:
The price of money.
And after the price of money changes,
how stocks are valued,
how much houses are worth,
whether companies dare to borrow money,
whether investors are willing to take risks,
the direction of global capital flows,
all get recalculated accordingly.
So you will find:
Every time the Federal Reserve holds a meeting,
a dozen or so people sit in a conference room discussing a few decimal points,
the asset prices of billions of people worldwide tremble.
This is probably the most magical part of the modern financial world:
Some adjust by 0.25%, while some accounts fluctuate by 25%.
What ordinary people should really do is not panic when they see the words "rate hike," nor rush in to bet on the direction.
Instead, they should first figure out:
Where this 0.25% will actually make money flow.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% After the non-farm payrolls crushed liquidity expectations, real demand assets started moving independently!
$BTC is still fluctuating around 80,000 after a strong non-farm report. The macro pressure is real, but the spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $731 million, the largest since mid-January, indicating institutions are buying. Now, Bitcoin looks more like a tug-of-war between high interest rates and long-term allocation funds. Next week's CPI will be the real directional choice.
$RE is consolidating around 0.45. Small-cap coins are easiest to be controlled by funds when the market lacks direction. A volume of 7 million shows there is capital operating but it hasn't reached a breakout point yet. These coins lack fundamental support and rely purely on capital driving; they rise fast and fall fast, so don't treat short-term trades as long-term holds.
$ZEC broke through $1,000, making the privacy sector the strongest sub-sector in this cycle. ETF funds, spot demand, and short squeeze combined have exaggerated the speed of the rise. However, as derivatives volume and open interest grow simultaneously, it has moved from fundamental revaluation to a fundamental plus leverage phase, meaning volatility will only increase.
ETH remains a high-elasticity version of BTC, with ETF staking and corporate holdings continuously absorbing supply; when macro eases, elasticity expands. SOL is still holding near $100, with the September 9 trading format upgrade as a fundamental catalyst. MU rose 3.26%, with HBM core suppliers directly benefiting from AI server demand. AVGO is slightly up and stabilizing, supported by an AI revenue guidance of $58 billion!
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% My short got another lucky escape. Entry: $2,318 Current: ~$2,430 Unrealized loss: now around $110, down significantly from the worst point. But I’m not celebrating yet. Honestly, the position survived because macro gave me some breathing room — not because my short thesis was perfectly timed. The August U.S. jobs report changed the setup. Payrolls jumped 162K, well above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.1%. That pushed September Fed rate-hike expectations back toward roughly 60%, puttOne $BTC exchanges for 18 ounces of gold, BTC is outperforming gold
Just checked the data, the BTC to gold ratio has reached 18.17, a new high since January. One BTC can now be exchanged for 18 ounces of gold, with gold at $4430 per ounce, which converts to about $80,400 per BTC, roughly matching the current coin price.
Bitwise stated very clearly in their latest report: the correlation between BTC and gold has risen to a six-year high, while the correlation with the stock market has dropped to a one-year low. This is no coincidence. U.S. public debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, the Treasury announced doubling the scale of bond buybacks, the dollar is weakening, and money is flowing directly into hard assets.
Interestingly, Jiang Zhuoer liquidated all his BTC around 82,000, saying he is looking for opportunities between 70,000 and 72,000. On one side, institutions treat BTC as "digital gold" for allocation, on the other, major miners are cashing out at high levels. Same price, different judgments.
BTC is transitioning from a risk asset to a hard asset, but at the 80,000 level, there is still significant disagreement between bulls and bears.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ 🚨 $BTC TAKES A HIT AFTER NFP
Bitcoin briefly broke above $81K, but quickly reversed toward $79.2K after the U.S. jobs data.
August payrolls came in at 162K, far above the expected 56K.
The 10Y Treasury yield also jumped toward 4.80%, reviving concerns around higher rates in September.
The macro pressure is real. 📉
#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The market is starting to distinguish between "real logic" and "liquidity eating," with regulatory negative news directly crashing electric vehicles!
$BTC The strong non-farm payrolls pushed the rate hike probability back up, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below 80,000, but ETF funds have re-entered in large amounts, with a recent single-day net inflow of about $731 million. This combination is very interesting: macro is suppressing valuations, but institutions are buying, so BTC now looks more like a tug-of-war between high interest rates and long-term allocation funds.
$RE Consolidating around 0.45, small-cap coins are easiest to be controlled by funds when the market has no direction. A volume of 7 million indicates funds are operating but it hasn't reached a breakout point yet. These coins lack fundamental support and rely purely on capital driving; they rise fast and fall fast, so don't treat short-term trades as long-term holds.
$XRP Down 1% to 1.40, regulatory positives remain but need short-term digestion. After falling from the 1.46 high, funds have withdrawn from the leading rally coins and shifted to low-position coins. This wave for XRP is a regulatory-driven independent rally; the mid-to-long-term logic remains intact but short-term consolidation is needed. Holding 1.35 means strong consolidation.
DOGE continues to drift down at 0.084, meme sentiment is fading with no new catalysts; ARB retraced from highs at 0.131, L2 gains were too fast and need digestion; SNDK rose nearly 12% against the trend, AI is re-trading NAND and enterprise SSDs as scarce assets; TSLA dropped 4.6% intraday to 359, autonomous driving faces regulatory scrutiny, Cybercab honeymoon period is over, don't rush to bottom-fish on regulatory negatives!
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Now 1 BTC can already be exchanged for more than 18 ounces of gold.
And this is the highest level since January this year.
Gold is rising, BTC is also rising, but this time, BTC is starting to run faster than gold.
This is quite interesting.
Because in the past, the market viewed BTC as:
Liquidity comes, it rises.
Risk comes, it drops first.
But now more and more people are starting to price it with a different logic.
Debt is increasing.
Currency is becoming easier to dilute.
So how much is the money in hand really worth?
Gold's answer is: buy physical assets.
BTC's answer is: buy a digital asset with limited supply.
So you will find that the correlation between BTC and gold has also risen to the highest level since 2020 recently.
Of course, don't rush to call it "digital gold."
When prices rise, everyone likes to find grand narratives for BTC. The real test is whether it can hold up like gold when a crisis actually comes.
$BTC $XAU $XAU gold has really been on a roller coaster lately. First, Wash's hawkish speech pushed rate hike expectations down to 4288, then the Fed suddenly turned dovish and pulled it back above 4500. But once the non-farm payroll data came out, it got hammered back near 4365, and now it's hovering around 4435.
Basically, it's moving as predicted on Wednesday. The Friday non-farm data "exploding" was unexpected, so the price dropped nearly 100 points as soon as the data was released. I don't really trust this data; it feels like it was fabricated just to cause a drop. I bottom-fished a bit on Friday, but the risk was high, so I just played around and watched.
On the news front, the market is focused on two things: first, the CPI on September 11. If inflation doesn't come down, rate hike expectations will rise again, and gold will get hammered; second, the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran is supporting safe-haven demand, but rising oil prices are pushing inflation expectations higher, making gold's situation quite awkward.
Another news point to watch is the turning point in institutional funds. Deutsche Bank pointed out a turning point in gold spot funds, with hedge funds and asset management institutions accelerating their entry. This kind of major capital involvement usually provides strong mid-term support for gold prices.
From a technical perspective, 4300 is the short-term bottom line; breaking below that will trigger algorithmic selling and crash the market. On the upside, 4500 is a hurdle; only after surpassing it can we see 4700. The MACD is still below zero, so the bears haven't fully exited, but the downtrend is slowing.
Before the data release, it's likely to oscillate between 4300-4500, waiting for the CPI to set the direction.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Gold has been doing the “safe haven” job for generations. Bitcoin has only been around for a fraction of that time.
Yet the BTC to gold ratio moving higher again shows just how quickly that relationship is evolving.
Personally, I don’t see this as Bitcoin replacing gold. I actually think the two can play very different roles. Gold still makes more sense to me when investors want stability and lower volatility, while BTC attracts people willing to accept much bigger price swings for potentially higher upside.
What interests me more is where new capital chooses to go.
If investors become worried about debt, inflation or currency debasement and increasingly choose BTC alongside or instead of gold, that would be a much bigger signal than the ratio simply hitting another high.
My view right now? Gold still wins on stability, but Bitcoin is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore as an alternative scarce asset.
#BTCGoldRatioHigh $BTC $Last night, US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all plunged together. The Dow dropped, gold fell below $4,400, and Bitcoin instantly crashed from $81,600 to below $80,000. Right after the data was released, Trump just posted a message praising the August nonfarm payrolls as "very outstanding"—an increase of 162,000, while the expectation was only 56,000, nearly triple the forecast. Logically, with such a strong economy, the stock market should rise. So what happened? S&P 500 futures fell, the US dollar index surged to 99.93, and the CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 50% to over 60%. Better data → stronger rate hike expectations → stock market falls. Trump's chain of logic was publicly torn apart by the market. His anger is justified—in his world, this system is broken. He wrote a passage on Truth Social worth reading word by word: "How crazy is this? We just released fantastic employment data, and the market should have gone up. But, as has happened for the past 25 years, the stock market fell because we live in a false reality: if things are good, you have to 'kill it' out of 'fear' of inflation. It should be the opposite, and it was so before 25 years ago." Then he concluded in all caps: "GROWTH DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION!" He also said that US GDP growth "should have reached 15% and 20%, not 2%, 3%, and 4%." But this is not an economic discussion; it is election rhetoric. There are still notSanDisk surged 11.9% in one day, the "dark line" in the storage sector is even stronger than AI
SanDisk ($xSNDK) surged 11.9% in a single day to $1740, leading the entire storage sector to soar — but 99% of people didn’t understand the connection with the crypto world.
On September 4, SNDK closed at 1740, up 11.9%, making it the strongest performer in the US storage stocks that day; during the same period, SK Hynix rose 8.14%, Micron rose 6.10%. SanDisk climbed from 1536 on September 1 to 1740, a 13% increase in four days, clearly showing capital is rushing in.
The logic is simple: AI servers’ storage demand is structural, with HBM, DRAM, and NAND all tight. DDR5 24Gb mainstream spot price is $48, 1Tb QLC flash memory is $26.5, prices remain firm. As the NAND leader, SanDisk directly benefits from this AI infrastructure dividend. And SNDK, as a "crypto stock" with both US stock identity and crypto narrative, has recently been treated by capital as a dual beta for AI+crypto.
Significance for the crypto world: The simultaneous rise of the three storage giants indicates that AI capital expenditure stories are still accelerating, and risk appetite has not collapsed. With the strength of NVDA, SNDK, and MU, BTC and AI concept coins have macro-level confidence.Bitcoin ETFs have attracted funds for three consecutive weeks, with a single-week net inflow close to 1 billion USD.
Institutions are genuinely quietly accumulating this time.
But don’t rush to call a bull market yet; the cumulative net outflow for the year is still about 1 billion USD, indicating the previous dip hasn’t been fully recovered.
On Friday, it was mainly IBIT and FBTC holding the ground, while other ETFs basically stayed flat.
$ETH and $XRP funds have clearly cooled down, and the market’s current attitude is simple:
Buy $BTC first, altcoins line up.
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Sometimes copying ETFs is pretty good.
KORU is a triple-leveraged ETF long on the South Korean stock market, with the largest weighted components being storage giants like Samsung and SK Hynix, effectively giving triple leverage to the Korean storage sector. It rose 9.7% in the past 24 hours, with over $40 million in trading volume, which is not small.
Last night, the three major US stock indexes all fell, but storage chips went against the trend, with Micron alone rising 6%. AI servers have completely consumed storage capacity, driving up prices for DRAM and NAND, and even phones are following the price increases.
During the day, I was focused on a few US storage stocks and forgot there was such a leveraged product in Korea. By the time KORU appeared, most of the gains had already happened, and I missed out again.
This product had a nearly 20% single-day drop a few months ago and also a 15% single-day rise. Triple leverage has this temperament: when it's good, it's really good, but if you hit a single-day drawdown, holders can't even eat. For someone like me who can't hold positions, it's just for watching. 😂
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 Federal Reserve officials say rate hikes are necessary, with the probability for September rising to 58.6%
Whether the Fed will raise rates in September has become a key topic in the market again:
Rate hikes.
In August, nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding market expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. The labor market performance was clearly stronger than previous market concerns. After the nonfarm data release, the probability of a rate hike in September quickly rose above 50%, recently reaching about 58.6%. 
More importantly, hawkish voices have returned.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester clearly stated that the current labor market remains stable, and given persistent inflationary pressures, now is the time to raise rates. She was also one of the officials supporting a rate hike at the July FOMC. 
This has led the market to recalculate the chain:
Nonfarm exceeds expectations → Employment is resilient → Fed has no reason to worry the economy can't handle rate hikes → Inflation becomes a bigger problem → Probability of a September rate hike rises.
This change is very important for BTC.
Because previously the market traded on the logic:
Weak employment → Fed shifts to easing → Liquidity improves → BTC benefits.
Now the logic is reversing:
Strong employment → Rate hike expectations heat up → US Treasury yields rise → Dollar gains support → Risk assets come under pressure.
So a short-term BTC surge followed by a pullback is not surprising.
But do not interpret the "58.6% rate hike probability" as "a rate hike is certain in September."
It is still a roughly even split with a hawkish tilt.
Why?
Because one crucial card has yet to be played:
August CPI.
Fed Governor Waller has previously stated that if inflation continues to cool in August, he leans toward keeping rates steady in September; if inflation heats up again, a rate hike will need to be considered.
So the current macro game is very clear:
Scenario one: Strong nonfarm + strong CPI
This is the most hawkish combination.
Strong employment + high inflation → the necessity for rate hikes clearly rises.
US Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to strengthen, increasing short-term pressure on BTC and gold.
Scenario two: Strong nonfarm + cooling CPI
This combination is less pessimistic.
Employment shows economic resilience, CPI indicates inflation is declining.
The Fed could then believe:
"The economy can withstand high rates, but inflation is cooling on its own."
In this case, the probability of a September rate hike might actually decline again.
Therefore, what truly matters now is not the 58.6% figure itself.
But whether this probability will continue to approach 70% or 80%.
If CPI data causes the rate hike probability to rise further, BTC must be cautious of the dollar and US Treasury yields rising in tandem.
But if CPI is clearly below expectations and the rate hike probability falls back below 50%, the previously suppressed BTC risk appetite could quickly recover.
In short: The 162,000 nonfarm payrolls broke the "US economy is weak" narrative, hawkish officials are calling for rate hikes again, and the September probability has risen back to 58.6%; but the final direction for BTC depends on whether next week's CPI can truly confirm this wave of rate hike expectations. $BTC #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% Robinhood
Recently, a contradictory market phenomenon has emerged: on-chain revenue data has surged, while on-exchange funds are quietly withdrawing.
The core contradiction of this public Chain right now is not whether transaction fees can be earned, but whether this impressive revenue has the confidence for long-term sustainability.
On September 2, the chain's single-day revenue once surged to $4.01 million, a very impressive report card. But just two trading days later, the situation reversed. On September 4, on-chain funds began a large-scale exodus, with a single-day net outflow exceeding $21 million. At the same time, the hype around on-chain Meme tokens is rapidly cooling down, and the market's speculative sentiment bonus is quickly dissipating.
This raises a question worth pondering: Is Robinhood Chain's explosive revenue coming from genuine, stable on-chain business demand, or is it merely a short-term bubble bonus fueled by Meme token speculation?
Once the Meme hype completely fades and on-chain activity declines accordingly, the widely discussed story of $100 million annualized revenue will struggle to hold ground, and the current valuation logic will face challenges. What needs to be closely observed going forward is whether this public Chain can continue to generate stable cash flow without relying on thematic hype after the speculative frenzy subsides.
#Robinhood链上收入创高，资金却转为净流出 Frequent Movement of Bitcoin by Long-Term Holders: The Truth Behind On-Chain Anomalies
On-chain data shows a sharp increase in activity from Bitcoin addresses holding coins for over 5 years, with the 90-day average spent output rising to about 1,500 BTC, roughly double that of May this year. Despite the significant rise in old coin activity, Bitcoin's price remains stable near the $80,000 high range, without sharp surges or drops.
It must be noted that "spent" on-chain only indicates asset location changes on the blockchain and does not equate to selling behavior. Analyst Darkfost suggests that old coin movements may stem from large holders changing custodians, address consolidation, or security upgrades.
One main cause of this round of on-chain anomalies was the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability incident in August. To avoid mnemonic phrase leakage risks, many users transferred assets to newly generated secure addresses, combined with attackers moving stolen funds, directly boosting on-chain activity. Therefore, without observing large-scale asset inflows to exchanges, this anomaly should not be directly interpreted as market sell pressure. $BTC $ETH #美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #全球最大主权基金拟减持800亿美元美债 Strong non-farm payrolls are weighing on the index, but storage giant SanDisk surged nearly 12%😍, capital has already started voting with its feet: real shortages are tougher than macro factors!
#闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价
$BTC dropped below 80,000 again over the weekend, but spot ETFs have still accumulated about $3.8 billion in inflows over the past three weeks. It's not that institutions have withdrawn now, but interest rate expectations suddenly worsened, and short-term buying is suppressed by macro factors. If next week's CPI remains hot, BTC will still have to digest high interest rate valuations.
$ETH's biggest highlight is still on the supply side, with over 2 million tokens staked in the queue, while ETF funds continue to accumulate. ETH is more sensitive to liquidity than BTC, so the key now is not how much it rebounds, but whether these long-term locked tokens can continue to hedge against macro sell-offs.
$BICO is currently around $0.023, with low-level elasticity still present, but the previous exchange expansion dividend has been digested. Now it needs to be re-priced, relying on account abstraction business to bring users and revenue again; otherwise, it remains a typical small-cap sentiment play.
$OKB continues to watch whether X Layer's 19 RWA markets can generate trading volume; $QQQ is suppressed by high interest rates, but chips are clearly bucking the trend; the most noteworthy is storage😍! $SNDK surged nearly 12% on Friday, AI storage shortage logic is outweighing macro factors; $SKHYNIX also rose sharply the same day, with capital trading still focused on HBM and memory market conditions, not just simple rate cuts.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ BNB current price 741–757 (9/5), monthly increase 21%, quarterly burn 1.32 billion, Grayscale fund allocation 30.6%, CME included in index, VanEck filed ETF—fundamentals are the strongest among platform tokens. But today's rise is a short squeeze with BTC, BNB ETF had zero inflow on the day, purely beta, not an independent catalyst.
Conclusion: can allocate, do not chase.
Pullback to 678–700 (20-day moving average) with low volume to stabilize for a low long position, stop loss at 640; volume breakout with real body above 755–770 to target 955 on the right side.
Single position should not exceed 10% of total holdings.
If 9/11 CPI is hotter than expected, even 700 will be hard to hold; waiting for data release is safer than chasing bullish candles.
DOJ investigation on Binance remains a single black swan event.
In short: BNB is worth accumulating, but chasing at 750 = paying a bailout fee to short squeezers. $BNB Brothers, I don't know if you're panicking, but honestly, I'm not very panicked.
To be honest, although my ZEC is stuck, I'm really not worried.
Why am I not worried? Let me share a few reasons with you.
Right now, there are a lot of positive news for ZEC, and its momentum is very strong, but precisely this is its first downside; it's too perfect.
$ZEC has surged from over 300 dollars all the way above 1000 dollars, up 88% in 30 days, and 2300% in the past year.
Grayscale ETF listing, privacy narrative explosion, AI scandals igniting the market, positive news one after another.
The daily RSI has soared to 78, overbought, and the hourly RSI once reached 92.82, entering a severe overbought zone.
Price is far above EMA20 and EMA50, with a large deviation.
So perfect that even a grandma would think it will make money.
At this point, I probably don't need to say more. When even a grandma thinks it will make money, it means losing money is not far off.
Looking deeper.
The core driving force of this ZEC wave is "short squeeze + sentiment," not a healthy bull market rising slowly.
In the past 24 hours, $36.6 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, of which $34.5 million were shorts. Shorts were precisely squeezed out, and the longs were fueled.
But contract trading volume is more than ten times that of spot, indicating this wave is mainly driven by leveraged positions. Once sentiment reverses, the stampede will be brutal.
Now about the whales.
There is a whale holding 230,100 ZEC, with a cost of about 60 dollars, bought last December.
They cashed out $22.61 million along the way, and still hold 230,100 ZEC, with unrealized profits of $126 million.
Do you think they will hold forever without selling? Or wait until you chase in and then slowly sell?
More importantly, the EU will ban exchange-traded privacy coins like Zcash starting July 10, 2027.
This bomb is still hanging over our heads. The market chooses to ignore it now, but what must come will come.
This ZEC has risen from 475 to 1000, more than doubling.
Daily overbought, contract market dominance, whale selling, regulatory bans—all signals say the same thing: things that are too perfect are often traps.
My short position near 936 is still open. How good is the risk-reward ratio to chase longs at this level?
You do the math yourselves.
$BTC
$ETH
#美联储官员称应加息，9月概率升至58.6% #Fed officials say rate hikes are necessary, September probability rises to 58.6%
Fed rate hike expectations soar! Market bulls and bears completely split
Recently, hawkish Fed officials have clearly stated: current rates are insufficient to curb inflation, further hikes are needed. Coupled with August's nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations, the market quickly raised bets, with the probability of a September hike rising to 58.6%. Citibank even pushed the rate cut timing directly to 2027, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged high-rate battle.
On the surface, the economy shows strong resilience and hot employment, giving the Fed confidence to continue tightening. Inflation stickiness remains, making a short-term rate hike reasonable.
But my core view: rate hikes are not set in stone; current risks far outweigh benefits.
Key concerns have emerged: August wage growth sharply declined, and real wage growth turned negative. Employment data is lagging, while declining purchasing power is a real leading signal. The negative effects of sustained high rates are slowly transmitting; continuing to hike now risks over-tightening, directly draining the economy and triggering subsequent recession risks.
Additionally, political pressure is clearly rising, with voices demanding rate cuts during the election cycle continuously pressuring the Fed, further limiting aggressive rate hike space.
The market is currently at a critical juncture, all eyes on the August CPI data on September 11.
If inflation remains high, rate hike expectations will continue to rise; if inflation falls, the Fed will most likely choose to pause and wait. $ETH $BTC A lot of shorts are already under serious pressure. After such an aggressive run, fear and FOMO are both starting to appear. Let’s simplify the situation. ZEC’s market cap is now around $17B, putting it firmly into large-cap altcoin territory. The recent rally isn’t just random speculation either. One of the biggest catalysts is institutional access. The major update is that Grayscale’s Zcash ETF, $ZCSH, started trading on NYSE Arca on August 25. As of September 3, the fund had roughly $415M in SanDisk enters the S&P 100, a ticket to being a “core asset” Just saw a piece of news: SanDisk has been officially included in the S&P 100 index, effective September 21. #闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价 It’s the S&P 100, not the S&P 500. Only the 100 largest and most representative companies in the U.S. stock market can get in. Joining SanDisk are Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks, and Dell. Kicked out are Nike, Colgate, Simon Property Group, and Honeywell Aerospace. This is a ticket to being a “core asset.” Passive funds and ETFs tracking the S&P 100 must allocate SanDisk stock according to the prescribed weight. On the announcement day, SanDisk surged 11.9% in a single day, closing at $1740, with trading volume expanding to 16.48 million shares, more than double the volume of previous days. Hedge funds increased their SanDisk holdings from 114 to 128 in Q2, with total holdings growing from $11.3 billion to $25.6 billion, more than doubling. But what I want to say is something else—SanDisk started this year at $237, peaked at $2354, then pulled back to around $1400, and now has bounced back to $1740. It rose sixfold in a year, then corrected 36%, and bounced back again. This is not retail investors speculating; it’s institutions repeatedly pricing the same question: how much is AI storage really worth? The fundamentals are also cooperating. SanDisk’s revenue in Q2 2026 is $8.97 billion, a year-on-year increase ofChasing shorts gets blown up, chasing longs gets dumped. In the current market, doing nothing is actually the smartest move.
The most frustrating thing isn't a single-day 20% crash or a 15% surge, but the extreme tug-of-war of "missing the mark by a hair"—one step forward misses the target, one step back misses it too. A slow, dull cut to the meat is more mentally exhausting than a direct crash; manipulative whales rely on this to drive people crazy.
Originally bearish on BTC and ETH, BTC dropped nearly 40% from 126,000 to 79,500, and ETH was halved from 4,950 to 2,450. It all looked like a bear market bottoming. But the past week has brought too many variables: ETH showed resilience and even an independent rally, rising 35% in the past month, surpassing BTC's 28%. The ETH/BTC ratio saw its first golden cross since last July. The 76,000-78,000 range is the average cost line, and 69,500 is a strong support at the 200-day moving average. Both dips were bought back, bulls haven't surrendered.
But this area is the biggest trap: shorts who just opened positions got blown up by ETF inflows and short covering, with 260 million short contracts forcibly liquidated last week; longs who just entered hit the "old player supply wall" at 83,000-86,000, where 1.05 million coins have been held for over 6 months, plus the largest bullish options position at 80,000. Gamma hedging selling pressure repeatedly suppresses prices.
Don't trade just for the sake of trading without clear signals. Mature trading means knowing when to hold still and wait for the answers to be handed to you before acting. $BTC $ETH $SOL 以后你可能会在三个 Crypto App 里，同时看到 AAPL。 价格都跟着 Apple 走，看起来好像都是“链上 Apple 股票”。 但你真正买到的东西，可能完全不同。 一种只是跟踪 Apple 股价的衍生品。 一种背后真的 1:1 托管着 Apple 股票，但你本人并不是 Apple 股东。 还有一种更激进：Token 本身就是证券，并拥有真正的股东权利。 同样叫 Stock Token，“股票”两个字的含金量可能完全不同。 01｜最近三件事，刚好把这个问题同时推到了台前 Coinbase 正在推进 Equity Perpetual（股票永续合约）。 Robinhood 的 Stock Token，则因为 AMC CEO 公开反对，再次引发“这到底算不算股票”的争议。 另一边，LSEG 与 Kraken 母公司 Payward 正在推进英国上市股票 Tokenization，并探索更进一步的 Native Equity Token（原生股票代币）。 表面看，它们都在做同一件事： 把股票搬上链。 但仔细拆开，你会发现它们其实可能是三种完全不同的金融产品。 02｜第一种：你买的是股#特斯拉无人出租车发布不及预期，股价跌近6%
The boss has something to say
Tesla's driverless taxi launch flopped. On September 3, the stock once surged over 7% intraday as the market bet in advance. However, the launch event was not live-streamed, Elon Musk himself did not attend, and there was no information on pricing, production pace, or regulatory approval. On September 4, the stock dropped nearly 6 points directly.
What's more troublesome is that the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has already initiated a certification review. This vehicle has no steering wheel, brake pedal, or rearview mirrors, and Tesla wants to pass by claiming some safety standards do not apply. Whether this will succeed, no one knows now.
This drop reflects the gap between overblown expectations and reality. The market wants a solid product roadmap, but Tesla delivered an empty launch. Whether this decline will continue depends on the certification review and whether subsequent detailed information can fill the gap.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set properly. Good luck.The US CPI on September 11 and the Fed interest rate decision on September 16 will be very important catalysts next.
Currently, I assess the market as: NEUTRAL → SLIGHTLY BEARISH in the short term. Although institutional money has not disappeared. BTC and ETH ETFs have attracted a total of about 1.2 billion USD this week [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
SanDisk has been rising for so long, why hasn't it topped out yet?
Pharaoh says directly, SanDisk's surge from $1000 to over $1700 means the market is repricing it as a core AI infrastructure asset. Now, S&P Dow Jones has officially announced that on September 21, SanDisk will be included in the S&P 100 index, joining tech giants like Dell and Palo Alto Networks.
The S&P 100 is different from the Nasdaq 100; the Nasdaq 100 is the tech stock stronghold, while the S&P 100 represents the "core 100 companies of the US economy." SanDisk just entered the Nasdaq 100 in April, and now in September it joins the S&P 100—rising two tiers within half a year, from a "tech rising star" straight into the "core circle of the US economy."
The most practical impact is that passive funds will start buying. The S&P 100 is the benchmark for trillions of dollars in passive funds and ETFs, so inclusion means massive index funds must buy enough SanDisk shares before the effective date!
But Pharaoh must emphasize: passive funds' "clocking in" is mechanical, not a value judgment. There will indeed be buying pressure around the September 21 effective date, but if no new active funds take over afterward, a rise followed by a fall is a common scenario.
SanDisk stepping onto the S&P 100 stage essentially means the market is saying: storage is no longer just a chip cycle stock; it is a core asset of AI infrastructure. Making money is not about rushing; choosing the right direction is more important than timing perfectly. Good trades are made by waiting. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #闪迪纳入标普100，下周迎首次定价 #The Fed just got a stronger case for a hike.
August payrolls came in at 162K, far above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.1%.
The September hike odds jumped back toward 60%.
But the story isn't over.
Wage growth is cooling, and next week's CPI could still change everything before the Sep. 15–16 FOMC.
**If CPI comes hot, does $BTC face another selloff?#HammackBacksHike #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The most dangerous thing in the crypto market right now is never the panic of a single-day 20% plunge, nor the frenzy of a single-day 15% surge, but rather that extreme tug-of-war where "the direction is about to emerge, yet it just misses the final step"—you might step forward and fall into a trap, or step back and miss out. This dull-knife cutting flesh type of market wears down the mentality more than a direct crash. I originally predicted that $BTC and $ETH would continue to weaken. After all, from a cycle perspective, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 40% from its all-time high of $126,000 on October last year to around $79,500 now, and Ethereum has been halved from $4,950 to $2,450. This looks more like the bottoming phase of the first year of a bear market rather than a signal of bull market acceleration. But the market in the past week has not given strong enough bearish confirmation signals and has even shown many unexpected variables. The most obvious is ETH's resilience, which has even subtly decoupled from BTC to form an independent trend: ETH has gained nearly 35% in the past month, far exceeding BTC's 28% rise in the same period. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has seen its first golden cross since July 2025, the open interest in futures markets continues to rise, and the annualized premium on short-term contracts has even reached 25%. Signs of institutional capital inflow are very clear—last week, BlackRock and Fidelity's ETH ETFs attracted $137 million in a single day, almost accounting for the entire market's net inflow into ETH ETFs. In contrast, $BTC, although bears have been active around the $80,000 mark