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Kashkari came out on Sunday saying: The Treasury market is functioning normally, and I don't currently believe inflation will return to target in the short term. In plain language—don't expect us to rush to cut rates and flood the market.
The 10-year yield is at 4.73%, and the 30-year is still lingering near the highest level since 2007. Many who shout "bull return" are actually betting on "the Fed will eventually flood the market to support prices," but Powell's people keep coming out to pour cold water, and inflation remains sticky and won't go down.
Liquidity is the water level of the market. If the water level doesn't rise, just pushing prices up with sentiment alone will only make the fall hurt more the higher it goes. I'm not saying a crash is imminent, but don't take "the central bank will come to save me" as a reason to go all in—that's the most expensive wishful thinking for retail investors. The fuel for this $BTC short squeeze is not sparked by fundamentals.Once ETH strengthens, there is indeed a historical inertia of funds flowing into DOGE, which has been a repeatedly played "transmission chain" in past bull markets.
Looking back at 2017 and 2021, the market rhythm was astonishingly consistent: first, Bitcoin attracted capital and established the bull market, then ETH, as the leading altcoin, took over the rally. When ETH's gains began to plateau and profit-taking sought outlets with higher elasticity, coins like DOGE, which have the strongest retail sentiment, experienced an explosion. The first quarter of 2021 is the most typical example: ETH doubled first, resetting market expectations for the altcoin season, followed by $DOGE delivering tens of times gains over several months. The timing lagged behind $ETH but far exceeded its elasticity. In the partial rotation at the end of 2024, the same script played out again—after ETH stabilized, DOGE quickly became a frequent top gainer.
The logic behind this pattern is not complicated. ETH strengthening itself is the most effective "starting gun" for the altcoin season, signaling a rise in market risk appetite; DOGE, lacking complex fundamentals and priced almost entirely by sentiment and liquidity, naturally becomes a high-beta outlet for overflow funds. In other words, ETH is the thermometer, DOGE is the amplifier. I laid out a $BTC bullish scenario because the weekly candle will print a buy signal. This time would be different: - This would be the shortest bear market ever - Bitcoin has always retested the average buy price which is still downward sloping at $51,926 - Potential profit has always gone negative, still positive Bear case: IF price stalls out at the $82,000 area and does not make a higher high and starts to breakdown from upward trend line, THEN it's possible this bear market becomes an ext❓What if $58k really was the bottom of the bear market?
Then it would be the first bear market in history where $BTC never reached the CVDD ($49k)
This time, $BTC didn’t even touch the Realized Price ($52.7k)!
In previous bear markets, $BTC spent quite a bit of time below that level
Something doesn’t add up here$SOL on-chain tokenized stock single-quarter trading volume reached $5.8 billion, but high turnover and liquidity gaps during traditional market closures constitute the core contradiction.
Market data shows that the total locked value of $SOL on-chain RWA has surpassed $4 billion, hitting a record high. In Q2, tokenized stock DEX trading volume surged 114% quarter-over-quarter to $5.8 billion. This data concentrates about 95% of the global tokenized stock DEX share on a single network, confirming the aggregation effect of high-frequency settlement on on-chain US stock liquidity.
The factors driving capital flow are ranked as follows: deep matching of on-chain spot and derivatives comes first, followed by the ability to absorb funds during cross-market closures, and lastly, the capital diversion to competing networks like $ETH, $BNB, $AVAX, and $LINK in the RWA field.
The bullish scenario triggers if $SOL on-chain tokenized stock daily trading volume remains high and RWA locked value stays above $4 billion, which will reduce trading friction costs and attract continuous net inflows from institutional-level capital pools; if DEX weekly trading volume growth turns negative and locked value falls below $4 billion, this scenario is invalidated.
The bearish scenario triggers if large unilateral sell-offs occur during traditional financial market closures, causing bid-ask spreads to widen due to lack of underlying market maker support, leading to on-chain tokenized asset liquidity discounts and capital outflows; if DEX market-making depth significantly increases during closures and spreads remain stable, the bearish scenario is invalidated.
The core observation variables for the next 7 days are whether $SOL on-chain tokenized stock DEX trading volume can maintain Q2 daily average levels and the effectiveness of the $4 billion RWA locked value support threshold.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX但我越来越觉得，真正长期使用 Hyperliquid 交易的人，未必会成为这些 Meme 币最终的主要买家。 当然，这并不代表它们不会暴涨。 只要市场情绪和流动性到位，它们一样可以出现疯狂拉盘。只是交易逻辑可能和 SOL 链上的 Meme 没什么本质区别——同一批投机者、同样的资金、同样的 FOMO，只是暂时换了一个舞台，在 HyperEVM 上继续演一场新的 Meme 狂欢。 最近 Hyperliquid 的热度也确实明显上升，监管叙事和市场关注度推动 HYPE 成为当前加密市场的重要焦点之一。HyperEVM 的生态扩张也正在吸引更多项目和流动性进入。 所以关键不是“HyperEVM 的 Meme 有没有真实用户基础”，而是： 注意力在哪里，流动性就可能往哪里跑。 今天大家在 SOL 上炒 Meme，明天可能集体跑到 HyperEVM。 交易员永远在寻找下一个赌场——现在只是换了一张桌子而已。 😅当时很多人觉得我的判断太疯狂。 因为我是在押注一个过去几乎没有发生过的市场变化。 他们说我进场太早。 他们说真正的买入机会应该等到 Q4。 他们相信历史周期一定会再次重复。 但最终，市场结构发生了变化。 减半前提前创下历史新高（ATH），彻底改变了传统周期的节奏。 我一直认为，最重要的不是机械复制过去的四年周期，而是观察那些正在悄悄改变市场规则的信号。 而最近的行情似乎再次说明了这一点。 $BTC 本周一度冲高至接近 $79,500，随后回落至约 $77,000–$78,000 区间。更重要的是，美国现货 Bitcoin ETF 在短短四个交易日内吸引了约 $1.61B 的净流入，其中单日资金流入一度超过 $600M。这说明这波行情不仅仅来自短线投机，机构需求正在重新回到市场。 所以现在，我比以前更加确信一件事： 下一次 $BTC 创出历史新高，未必需要等待传统周期给出答案。 ETF 资金、机构配置、监管环境以及全球流动性，正在让 Bitcoin 的周期节奏发生变化。 我的观点依然没有改变： 当大多数人还在研究上一个周期的时候，市场可能已经开始进入下一个周期。 而如果当前的资金趋势能够Damn, out of boredom I checked $PUMP, and this thing has quadrupled in just two months!
It's not some fake pump; it's real — from the bottom around $0.0012 at the end of June, it surged all the way to over $0.005, rising nearly 180% in just this past month alone.
Ultimately, it's because Pump.fun is so powerful. It's the top platform for launching memecoins on Solana, bringing in millions of dollars daily, with an annualized figure that's terrifying. The key is they actually buy back with real money: 50% of their revenue goes directly to buying on the open market, then permanently burning the tokens. Burning like this reduces the circulating supply continuously.
Moreover, the team regularly converts $SOL into stablecoins, keeping plenty of cash on hand, so they can buy back whenever they want, support the price whenever needed, or even actively boost it — the cash flow is there, which is the confidence.
So I think this rise from the bottom isn't just pure emotional FOMO; as long as the platform's revenue doesn't collapse and buybacks continue, the fundamentals are holding strong. In the short term, I believe it can still climb higher. (Just my own analysis, not investment advice!)
#Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #西联推出稳定币卡，接入Solana生态 A critical reversal 17 minutes before the voting deadline: 540 million OP tokens canceled from retail airdrop, why is L2 abandoning the airdrop hunters in favor of institutions?
The Optimism community just witnessed a highly contentious governance drama.
With only about 17 minutes left before the vote closed, the funded core development team Test in Prod suddenly cast a crucial 8.486 million OP approval vote, instantly raising the support rate from 45.7% to 61.8%, forcibly passing a highly controversial proposal: reallocating the originally reserved 546.9 million OP tokens for user airdrops entirely to the strategic ecosystem fund managed by the foundation.
Despite opposition votes from well-known institutions and researchers including L2BEAT citing lack of transparent oversight, the official team resolutely pushed forward.
The signal behind this move is unmistakable: the era of L2 relying on massive retail airdrops to inflate fake TVL and interaction data is completely over. Under a zero-sum game, widespread retail airdrops are immediately dumped after being claimed, failing to build genuine retention. Optimism is decisively shifting to an institutional strategy, using this hundreds of millions of dollars worth of token reserves as commercial bidding ammunition to compete for enterprise giants and super app deployments.
This also starkly exposes the harsh reality of DAO governance: when the development team and whales hold absolute chips, retail token holders’ governance rights are inevitably marginalized. BONK faces a tougher setup. The Solana meme coin suffered a major governance security incident, followed by Upbit’s decision to delist it in September. That combination damages liquidity, confidence, and near term demand. Still, BONK retains strong brand recognition across Solana’s retail community. The important signal now is recovery in usage and liquidity, not social hype. Until those improve, rallies should be viewed with caution by experienced traders today overall
$BONK Account Position Divergence Radar
First, look at how many accounts are betting on a direction, then see how heavy the top positions are.
$BEAT The number of accounts and the weight of top positions are still not aligned, so keep the divergence tag for now and leave the next layer to price and positions. Price is going down, positions are also going down; the retreat of positions is more certain than attributing to direction. The account structure is still pulling; price and OI will determine which side truly gains the advantage.
$DOGE More accounts are bullish, but the top position weight is bearish; the apparent consensus has not yet translated into position size. Price and positions are moving up together, indicating new positions are involved in this volatility, not just pure position reduction. If the price rises but top positions remain bearish, position conflicts are still likely during pullbacks.
$SUI The three metrics are not aligned; market sentiment has not formed a complete consensus. Positions expand while price rises, showing new positions are cooperating with the trend, but OI alone cannot determine bullish or bearish ownership. Each ratio moves independently; short-term trading is better suited to wait for resonance rather than chasing direction based on a single ratio.🔻 $TRX Pulling Back Below $TRX 0.344!
TRX is cooling off from its $0.3444 peak, currently trading around $0.3433.
* Target: $0.3440 – $0.3458
* Support: $0.3419 – $0.3430
Price is sitting right near short-term MAs—holding above $TRX 0.3420 is crucial to prevent a further dip toward support! 📉
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #OKXTraderVoices At the time, many people thought this judgment was crazy. Because what I bet on is a market change that has hardly ever occurred before. They said I judged too early. They say the real opportunity should wait until Q4. They insist that traditional cycles will repeat again. But the market ultimately proved one thing: setting an all-time high ahead of time before the halving has already changed the rhythm of the entire cycle. In the past, the market habitually operated according to the old four-year cycle. Now, ETFs, institutional capital, and macro liquidity are moving the cycle forward, compressing it, and even changing the original timing patterns. The latest data is beginning to support this change: this week, BTC surged to around $79,500, and the US spot Bitcoin ETF attracted a net inflow of about $1.61B over four trading days, with institutional funds returning to the market. That's why I've always believed: the real advantage isn't predicting everyone's thoughts, but seeing the market structure shift before most people realize it's happening. Last year, the market proved that old cycles do not necessarily repeat completely. So the question now is no longer "Will BTC operate as it did in past cycles?" Instead: When institutional money, ETFs, and global liquidity become the new main drivers, will the next all-time high be faster than in previous cycles? My answer is still yes: very likely. The market does not always reward those who only study the past. It prefers to reward those who can detect early—when the rules have already begun to change. Many people ask me about "the bear market bottoming out and the bull market starting."
A few short-term bullish candles lifting the price, and they mistake an oversold rebound for a bull market reversal. This is a typical herd effect driven by FOMO. From the perspective of on-chain structure and liquidity, the real bottom has not yet been cleared:
1. Miner capitulation is not yet complete
Every major bear market bottom without exception is accompanied by a wave of miner shutdowns and bankruptcies. Only when the Hash Ribbon shows the ultimate crossover and high-cost producers have sold off can the chips be considered truly transferred from weak hands to strong institutions. Currently, miner inventory has not undergone deep cleansing, so the foundation is very unstable.
2. The derivatives market has not experienced "deep deleveraging"
Bottoms without liquidation cascades and liquidity squeezes are false bottoms. The current rebound is mostly driven by contract short covering and short-term spot price increases. The leveraged long positions accumulated above key resistance levels can easily turn into fatal selling pressure, which may lead to a secondary bottom test.
3. The necessity of time to grind the bottom in the cycle
Bear market bottoms are never achieved by a sudden sharp rise but through months of sideways consolidation and chip rotation. Blindly calling a bull market ignores the rhythm of macro liquidity withdrawal.
Summary:
Deleveraging is not thorough enough, miner chips have not been fully released, and the time to grind the bottom is insufficient. I still maintain my original judgment: the market needs a deeper washout, and the real bottom may not come until the end of this year.
True hunters only strike when the market is utterly desperate and silent. Time will prove who is swimming naked. Stay calm and watch closely. At the global macro level, there is currently no one-sided driver; the correlation between the US Dollar Index and crypto risk assets has clearly dulled, and the ETH market has returned to a pure chip game state. There are support orders around the current price of 2449, but the active buying is not aggressive enough. Dense limit sell orders are placed between 2456 and 2472, making each upward push heavy. On the downside, there are layered defense orders between 2420 and 2395, with 2395 being the main replenishment area during today's Asian session. The funding rate has returned to neutral to slightly negative, indicating that leveraged longs are not overheated and shorts have not significantly increased; short-term lacks a one-sided sentiment.
Just climbed to the sixth floor to put the meal at the door, but the customer didn't open it. I squatted in the hallway catching my breath, the phone screen's reflection made it hard to see, so I wiped it with my sleeve a couple of times and continued watching the K-line.
The naked 4-hour K-line has not broken out with volume, so it is temporarily treated as range-bound. As long as 2388 is not effectively broken down, the pullback is a position to bet on a rebound. I plan to place limit orders on OKX, buying long in batches from 2408 to 2422, with a stop loss at 2384, first take profit at 2452, and second take profit at 2488. If it directly breaks above 2472 with volume, I will continue holding; if it breaks below 2384, I will exit immediately without holding.
$ETH
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元
@OKX星球 BTC本轮从64000启动最高冲击79600的反弹，属于多重条件共振行情，分直接推手、催化因素、底层支撑三部分拆解 。 1、直接推手：史诗级轧空（空头被动回补） 前期长期震荡，合约市场堆积大量拥挤空单。价格突破关键阻力位之后，大量空单触发强平，空单平仓必须买入，形成连锁被动买盘，暴力放大上涨幅度 。 数据上，单日全网空头清算规模达到27亿美元级别，是这一波行情最直接的上涨动力。 ⚠️重点：轧空是短期力量，空单清算完毕之后，就需要新资金接力，否则行情容易降温 。 2、导火索催化：宏观+监管消息集中落地 ① 美财政部扩大长债回购规模，长端美债收益率回落，美元走弱，风险资产压力得到缓解，持有BTC这类无息资产机会成本下降。 ② 美国监管预期转暖，政策表态支持加密法案，市场对合规、ETF叙事重新定价，点燃市场做多情绪，$ZEC等币种也借ETF预期走出独立暴涨。 3、底层支撑：现货资金提前布局 在拉升之前，6万附近已有部分巨鲸、机构在低位持续吸筹。BTC现货ETF出现间歇性大额净流入，提供现货买盘底仓；但没有出现连续稳态的爆量流入，增量资金并不充分，更多属于存量博弈。 Bitcoin keeps climbing, but this rally isn’t following the usual script. 👀
Many investors waited for a deeper dip, missed the first move, then watched the next leg higher.
Now billions in sidelined capital are still waiting for an entry.
That could be why BTC is consolidating near the highs instead of dropping back into the low $70Ks or high $60Ks.
The longer price holds, the stronger the FOMO can become. 🧐
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #NvidiaServerPriceHike $ETH has rebounded with incredible strength, once again proving its resilience.
It now looks like Ethereum might be gearing up to hit new highs tonight.
Let's first talk about the core drivers behind this round of volatility:
First, policy news continues to disrupt the market. Trump publicly called on Congress to quickly pass the Clarity Act regulatory bill. The market expects the US crypto regulatory framework to become clearer, which is beneficial for institutional capital inflows in the long term. This positive sentiment has repeatedly caused price fluctuations. However, the bill is still at the proposal stage, and there is a long congressional voting process before it can be finalized. The positive impact is highly uncertain, and it is easy to see price spikes followed by pullbacks before and after the news is realized.
Second, ETF funds continue to flow in. Recently, US spot ETFs have seen large capital inflows. Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $2 billion in a single week. Institutions like BlackRock have simultaneously increased their holdings in BTC and ETH. Many institutions have further increased their Ethereum holdings proportion. Spot buying supports the price, and there is buying power to absorb declines. Therefore, after the sharp drop in the afternoon, the price did not continue to fall deeply and quickly rebounded.
Third, leveraged contract funds are fiercely competing. A large number of short positions had accumulated earlier. The short-term drop triggered some stop-losses, and then the price reversal forced shorts to be liquidated. The back-and-forth clearing between longs and shorts directly amplified short-term volatility. The rebound strength of ETH is clearly stronger than BTC, and institutional funds have recently been increasing their allocation to Ethereum. $BTC This surge is essentially a liquidity squeeze, not a bull market signal
BTC consolidated between $62,000 and $67,000 for nearly three weeks, with the decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields as the trigger—dollar weakness improved liquidity expectations, causing funds to rapidly flow into the crypto market. Ultimately, over $4.3 billion in short positions were collectively liquidated, pushing BTC from $60,000 straight up to $79,800, a roughly 33% increase in one week.
However, behind this sharp rise is a clear "liquidation bill"—short covering and leverage-driven momentum were the main components, rather than a systemic entry of new capital. The price was "squeezed" up, not "bought" up. A true trend reversal requires sufficient chip turnover and sustained fundamental improvement to confirm; relying solely on gains built from liquidations raises doubts about sustainability.
After the short-term euphoria, the market still faces profit-taking pressure. Whether BTC can complete sufficient turnover in the $77,000-$80,000 range will determine if the next phase is a continued breakout or a pullback to around $75,000 to solidify support. Avoid chasing the sharp rise; waiting for a pullback confirmation before making a decision is more prudent than impulsive entry. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Major update on US-Iran dynamics on August 23: Munir's visit to Iran may handle multiple issues, and Iran's invitation to join the "Mecca Collective Defense Agreement" could change the Middle East landscape! There isn't much news about the US and Iran today, but all are important. Let's review them in chronological order. I believe this marks a major turning point in the US-Iran situation: #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 1. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that the so-called "the most severe economic sanctions in history" imposed by the US on Iran are a helpless choice after the failure of existing strategies. At the same time, Iran has not closed the door to negotiation talks and hopes Washington will conduct negotiations respectfully. This is actually a signal to the outside world—Iran does not accept submissive negotiations, only negotiations under respectful conditions. 2. Pakistani Army Marshal Munir will visit Tehran before next Monday. Munir is Pakistan's top representative in US-Iran negotiation mediation. His visit to Tehran means Pakistan will return to being a key player in US-Iran mediation. I believe Munir's visit to Tehran involves three issues: a. Mediation between the US and Iran, which is the main task; b. Jointly discussing strategies to respond to US economic sanctions, and also diplomatically pressuring the US to temporarily suspend economic sanctions; c. Discussing with Iran the related matters of joining the "Mecca Collective Defense Agreement." 3. Senior Iranian officials stated that Iran has been invited to join the "Mecca Collective Defense Agreement," a regional security framework agreement among Middle Eastern countries. The main current members are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Once Iran joins, Iran and Saudi Arabia🔥OKB is stuck between 100–120, it's not that there's no support, but this area happens to be the "graveyard zone" since 2025
On 8/23, OKB hovered around $106–108, with a market cap of about $2.28 billion, total supply of 21 million, and daily RSI above 70. This is no longer the "news-driven surge" like on 8/13. Now the debate is: is this wave the second push forward, or just high-level rotation after the positive news has been priced in?
Looking at the chip distribution makes it clearer:
$70–85: The largest accumulation zone since 2026, a very solid short-term bottom;
$100–120: The most important historical heavy lock-in zone since 2025 — currently stuck repeatedly grinding at this level;
$120–170: Very sparse chips above; once volume picks up and it holds above 120, selling pressure will quickly drop, and the vacuum zone directly targets previous highs at 142–229.
In other words, OKB doesn’t lack a story now; the story has completed one cycle (21 million hard cap, X Layer as the only Gas, Exchange OS staking threshold). The market is waiting for new money to take over rather than new narratives. Futures open interest and trading volume are rising together, indicating big players are holding, but it also means heavier leverage. If it can’t break through 120, a crash back to 85–95 is likely; conversely, if X Layer opens Exchange OS market deployment in Q3 and launches one or two real traffic applications, 120 won’t be the ceiling. $OKB Yesterday, the crypto market suddenly plunged down right after a sharp rally, catching the bulls off guard.
BTC dropped from nearly 80,000 to 76,500 within minutes, wiping out 108 billion across the entire market in 6 minutes.
XRP was even more extreme, flashing a crash of over 30% in some periods.
Many who just called for a bull run got liquidated, and some in the community lamented that many coins were opened at the starting point, and one sudden spike wiped them all out.
Naturally, everyone is concerned about the reasons and what will happen next. After reviewing current discussions, here are several mainstream views:
1. Classic leverage cascade liquidation, short-term trap
During the rise on the 19th-20th, 92% of liquidations were shorts, with over $1 billion liquidated in one hour.
The surge was too strong, and after funding rates rose, many saw shorts getting liquidated and rushed in to go long. Then, with weekend liquidity thin, a slight pullback triggered a chain liquidation.
In the past 12 hours, it reversed: 82% of liquidations were longs, with longs liquidated for $659 million and shorts only $148 million.
A detail is that if futures open interest is calculated by BTC quantity, it actually dropped from 532,000 to 465,000 during the rise.
This means many were not crazily adding leverage to chase the rally but were reducing positions while prices rose.
There aren’t that many people piling on high leverage, but the remaining positions are very concentrated and fragile. Once liquidation starts, it easily cascades.
Additionally, during liquidations, market makers directly withdrew orders, causing the bid-ask spread on altcoin perpetuals to jump from the usual 2-3 basis points to over 20, making it impossible to escape; slippage eats you up. The largest single liquidation happened on Hyperliquid, where a single BTC position liquidated nearly $25 million.
2. Market maker hunting conspiracy
On-chain data shows market maker Wintermute transferred about 3,834 BTC (~$257 million) to Binance this Monday, with another transfer of about 591 BTC before and after the spike.
Some suspect that market makers first pushed spot into exchanges, then when contract longs started cascading liquidations, they dumped spot to accelerate the drop, wiping out the high-leverage longs chasing the top.
This "wait for liquidation to start, then dump spot to push it further" tactic was also mentioned during the big flash crash in October 2025.
However, although this transfer data and timing match, market makers sending coins to exchanges is common (for market making, arbitrage, client withdrawals), so this remains suspicion without solid proof.
3. Double liquidation is healthier, no worries about spot
Both sides’ leverage got cleaned out, making the market cleaner.
The main catalysts lifting BTC this round remain US Treasury repos, liquidity expectations, and clearer US crypto policies.
Everything is stable and improving, just washing out the high-leverage players. So this view focuses on whether the US Bitcoin ETF will continue to see positive inflows on Monday. As long as fundamentals hold, spot holders need not worry.
Overall, the first view seems more convincing. The quoted post below explains it in more detail.ETF inflows last week:
BTC was $1.92 billion,
ETH was $700 million.
Currently, ETH's total market cap is 18.8% of BTC's,
while ETF inflows are 36.4% of BTC's.
The inflows are double the total market cap,
which explains why ETH's largest gain this round is 35.9%,
greater than BTC's largest gain of 26.6%.
To emphasize again,
Trump is strongly embracing blockchain,
and after the "Clear Act" passes,
U.S. financial assets (USD, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, etc.)
will be massively put on-chain, tokenized, and smart contracted,
which will bring tremendous global financial freedom.
If you are someone in the U.S. financial sector,
and you see RWA assets massively going on-chain,
wouldn't you want to learn what this "chain" is?
Wouldn't you want to invest in this "chain"? : ) $NVDA isn’t only selling GPUs to hyperscalers anymore. It’s building another route into the AI infrastructure market. By supporting neocloud players like $CRWV and $NBIS with capital, capacity and early access to new architectures, Nvidia gets more distribution for its hardware while these providers bring its compute directly to AI customers. The trade-off is clear: more ecosystem exposure and capacity risk for Nvidia. But the strategic upside is also clear. $AMZN , $MSFT and $GOOGL are all inAfter the mid-year report disclosure, an intraday drop of nearly 9%, coinciding with the maximum HKD 5 billion buyback plan, $POPMART has hit the brakes on its expansion pace.
The 7.5% decline in main IP revenue and a 16.5% drop in the Americas market directly impacted high growth expectations, quickly driving short-term selling pressure amid risk-off sentiment in the market.
A 47.3% revenue increase in the mainland market and nearly sixfold growth of the Star People IP have internally built new support, helping to uphold the valuation floor alongside expectations of a large buyback.
The risk appetite contraction caused by inventory destocking in external regions temporarily outweighs the fundamental support from local member repurchases and multi-IP tier volume growth.
If buyback funds accelerate entry and new IPs like Star People continue to share revenue pressure, the market’s pessimistic pricing on overseas adjustments will gradually be repaired, driving a return of long positions.
If the overseas supply chain optimization cycle lengthens, further pressuring profit margins, defensive capital tendencies will suppress the valuation midpoint, and the rebound momentum from the buyback will be weakened.
When the buyback implementation pace significantly lags behind the inventory destocking cycle, the current valuation balance maintained by capital support will be directly broken.
The most important variables to watch in the coming days are the actual initial buyback amount executed by management and the willingness of Hong Kong Stock Connect funds to support it.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？BTC relative strength determines the overall market direction, and derivative positions verify that strength. Is the current price movement due to spot demand, or is it a reflexive move emerging from already accumulated derivative risk? The original text conveys the practical priority of waiting for volatility while holding large coins and responding to individual altcoin stocks. The key point is not to chase individual coin movements until BTC decides its direction. BCH, ZEC, XRP, NEIRO, PEPE, and others fluctuated first, but this is closer to a liquidity game by individual stocks rather than overall market risk appetite. The original text does not directly mention which side derivative position risk is concentrated on in this phase, but the attitude of "already holding BTC and waiting for volatility" itself reveals the difference in expectations between spot holders and derivative players. Looking at the market structure, currently, BTC is sideways while some altcoins move individually. This is not a spread of risk appetite, but derivativesAltcoins OI is about to surpass $BTC Bitcoin OI.
Last 2 times this happened, most alts formed a local top.
Will this time be different?🔥 ZEC above $830 isn’t just a privacy-coin comeback. There’s a much bigger liquidity story underneath.
The real catalyst may be Grayscale’s structure.
The trust spent the quarter bleeding premiums, but moving toward a spot ETF changes the game.
Instead of trading through a closed-end fund wrapper, authorized participants can create and redeem shares against the actual ZEC.
That means more direct liquidity, tighter price discovery, and potentially much stronger demand.
#DailyOrbit The next flow of funds may not go where everyone is looking. The crypto market is entering a phase of strong differentiation. The important question is no longer "which coin will continue to rise?" but rather which ecosystem is the money truly committed to? BTC / ETH: Institutional money and ETFs remain the foundation of the market. However, high leverage and liquidation events indicate that short-term volatility is still very high. L1: Ethereum, Solana, and Sui continue to be notable. But instead of just looking at the narrative, it is necessary to track the users, $POPMART POPMART 2026 Mid-Year Report: More Opportunities Than Challenges?
Revenue for the first half of the year reached ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-over-year; adjusted net profit was ¥5.16 billion, up 9.5% year-over-year. Profit growth has clearly slowed, and management frankly admits it is highly likely to meet the initial 20% revenue target for the year, designating this year as a year of operational adjustment.
Opportunities:
1. Domestic foundation is solid, with mainland revenue soaring 47.3%. Membership has surpassed 100 million, with members contributing 92.9% of sales and a repurchase rate of 51.6%. Store strategy has shifted to efficiency improvement rather than blind expansion.
2. Progress in transforming the IP matrix: LABUBU revenue declined by 7.5%, while Star People surged 580.6% to become the second largest IP. Six IPs exceeded ¥1 billion in half-year revenue, reducing reliance on a single blockbuster.
3. Cash flow is ample, with zero interest-bearing debt. A HKD 2–5 billion share buyback was launched, signaling management confidence; Duan Yongping also favors the company’s long-term fundamental value.
Existing Challenges:
Revenue in Asia-Pacific and the Americas declined by 9.7% and 16.5% respectively. Overseas markets are experiencing growing pains from declining traffic dividends, inventory, and supply chain optimization. Whether the popularity of Star People can be sustained long-term and the slight decline in gross margin require ongoing observation.
Overall, the current phase is an active adjustment cycle. Short-term pain is laying a solid foundation for the long term. Going forward, key focus areas include overseas recovery, sustainability of new IPs, and progress on the buyback implementation. Opening various market communities, the overwhelming sound everywhere is "The bull is coming." The comment sections are flooded, short videos repeatedly hype it up, and everywhere is proclaiming that the big bull market has started, as if just entering the market will double your assets. Everyone is swept up in this enthusiastic atmosphere, filled with anticipation. After experiencing a long period of decline and bottoming out, many have been stuck for a long time, with accounts lingering in loss for an extended period, desperately hoping for a booming market to fully recover previous losses. So when they see a few bullish candlesticks on the chart and hear various influencers shout "bull market," their inner hope is instantly ignited, unable to resist fantasizing about a continuous one-way rise ahead. But reality is harsh. This surge came hastily, with a very limited increase and a pitifully short duration. Before the market could fully develop and before most people could earn decent profits, the rise abruptly stopped. After a slight push upward, selling pressure immediately followed, the market began to oscillate repeatedly, pulling up and down, and the newly kindled hope was gradually worn away. Many were blinded by the slogan "The bull is coming," rushing to heavily invest at the slightest rebound, fearing missing the so-called bull market start. They thought this was the beginning of a trend reversal, eagerly expecting a sustained rally afterward, only to realize after entering that this was merely a rebound repair, not the start of a true bull market. In the short term, it was just a pulse caused by concentrated short-covering, not a continuous influx of large new funds. A bull market is never shouted into existence; it is built step by step through real market movements.#财报观察员: POPMART shifts growth gears, can multiple IPs take over? POPMART's biggest dark horse in the half-year report, Star People IP surges 580.6% against the trend
Revenue reached ¥2.65 billion in the first half of the year, directly surpassing CRYBABY and DIMOO, rising to the second largest IP, with revenue share increasing from 2.8% to 15.4%.
On the other hand, THE MONSTERS (LABUBU) revenue declined 7.5% year-on-year, top-tier popularity cooled down, completing a key handover between old and new IPs, and the multi-IP matrix strategy shows initial results.
The growth rate includes a low base effect; further observation is needed on the sustainability of Star People’s popularity and overseas market expansion.BTC surges then consolidates, what does the massive ETF inflow mean?
After BTC surged to touch $78,800, it pulled back and is currently consolidating near the high around $77,000.
A very key signal has appeared in the capital flow: last week, the combined net inflow of US spot BTC+ETH ETFs was about $2.6 billion, marking the strongest single-week inflow since October last year.
Among them, the BTC spot ETF net inflow was $1.9 billion, and ETH nearly $700 million.
This is very important: this round of rally is no longer purely a short squeeze; spot institutional buying is genuinely stepping in to catch the market.
But risks are also right in front of us:
The market has reached a high level, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions. The core focus going forward is whether ETFs can continue to maintain this strong inflow.
Once the capital inflow slows down, the sell-off pressure from the previous rapid surge and the volatility impact from leveraged positions will be quickly amplified, leading to a sharp correction.
In summary:
✅ Institutions are putting real money in, providing fundamental support for the market
⚠️ High levels do not mean blindly bullish; the sustainability of capital inflow is the litmus test for a true or false breakout
The market is currently in a game: can ETF funds withstand the profit-taking pressure at high levels?
If inflows continue, the consolidation pattern has a chance to strengthen; once funds retreat, beware of severe pullbacks.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ 🔥 After a major earnings plunge, Duan Yongping's one sentence reveals the essence of investment $POPMART
Pop Mart's semi-annual report is out, showing slowed growth, LABUBU revenue decline, and cooling overseas business. The stock price once plunged nearly 9% at the open, with bearish voices everywhere online.
Duan Yongping, who holds a heavy position in POPMART, has been speaking frequently recently. Facing many netizens' doubts, he directly dropped a golden phrase:
"I don't care about public expectations, I only care about how the company will perform in the future, otherwise how would I make money?"
The market is currently tangled over whether short-term indicators meet targets and whether quarterly growth is high.
But Duan Yongping focuses on the company's fundamental basics:
✅ The domestic foundation is very solid, with mainland revenue soaring 47.3%, and over 100 million members building a highly sticky user moat
✅ IP transformation shows initial results, Star People revenue surged nearly 6 times, building a multi-IP matrix to gradually reduce reliance on LABUBU alone
✅ Holding tens of billions in cash flow, launching a buyback of up to HKD 5 billion, management actively supports the stock price
✅ Currently in an active adjustment cycle, slowing expansion pace, prioritizing smoothing overseas inventory, supply chain, and localized operations
Of course, risks objectively exist; overseas pains and whether new IP heat can sustain long-term remain unknown.
But this statement essentially reflects a typical long-termism mindset:
Stock prices in the short term are influenced by market sentiment and public expectations, but what ultimately determines a company's value is its long-term operational capability. $POPMART, a Beijing grocery store in 2010 that still relied on tricycle deliveries for restocking, reached revenue of ¥37.12 billion and adjusted net profit of ¥13.08 billion in 2025, with the LABUBU single IP generating ¥14.16 billion. In fifteen years, Pop Mart turned "adults buying toys" into a highly profitable business, but also put itself on the fire of "single IP dependency + blind box regulation + slowing overseas expansion." $POPMART POP MART's toughest challenge going overseas: turning viral traffic into a long-term business $POPMART
Pop Mart's overseas operations have now reached a very critical watershed.
The difficulty is increasing, but market attention has also reached its peak.
Last year, thanks to LABUBU's global viral explosion, overseas enjoyed a huge traffic dividend, and revenue saw explosive growth. But after the heat subsided, all problems were exposed. In the first half of 2026, Asia-Pacific revenue dropped by 9.7%, the Americas by 16.5%, and online traffic sharply declined. The short-term bubble brought by high popularity is now clearing out.
Many people equate the short-term overseas decline directly with failure in going abroad, but in fact, it's quite the opposite.
Previous growth was more of a phase peak brought by influencer viral hits; traffic came fast and heat faded quickly, with an unstable foundation.
True globalization absolutely cannot rely solely on a single IP's temporary overseas popularity.
Only by refining overseas operations from a brief traffic boom into a stable, repeatable, and sustainable business foundation can Pop Mart's long-term vision as a "global IP company" truly take shape.
The company's strategy has now clearly shifted: no longer blindly and wildly expanding stores, focusing instead on optimizing inventory, building localized operations, refining flagship stores as benchmarks, deeply cultivating single-store efficiency, and replacing past extensive scale-pushing with refined operations.
The domestic base has already firmly taken root. Whether overseas can endure the pain period next will be the decisive factor for the future ceiling.The rise of Bitcoin lacks fundamental support
The surge in Bitcoin is mainly because Trump approved the "Genius Act," which includes virtual currencies in the government's reserve targets. The approval of this act means the status of virtual currencies is further enhanced and solidified, but this is primarily Trump's will; the Federal Reserve will distort its implementation and pay lip service. The Federal Reserve will indeed buy virtual currencies, but how much and how to buy is decided by the Fed, which has little to do with the Genius Act. The positive aspect is that major virtual currencies will no longer be targeted by the US, their legality is strengthened and confirmed, and a small amount of capital will flow in.
The real upward trend of Bitcoin needs to be based on a new round of a sharp increase in employment rates, requiring a period of massive unemployment followed by a surge in employment. The real economy will take off again after eliminating backward industries. After AI, many industries have become outdated and need to be cleared out for the real economy to take off again, leading to a significant rise in prices of everything. Bitcoin and other virtual currencies will also surge several times.
This is the normal fundamental thinking logic, but speculative markets should never be certain of any rules; just act with a 60% probability and never believe the probability will reach over 99%. There is also a small possibility that Bitcoin will catch up directly to 90,000-110,000.
According to chart analysis and fundamental analysis, Bitcoin has normally rebounded in place and will head towards 40,000, which is about 50% of this rebound. #This judgment is just a higher probability. Currently, I have switched from short to profit and am now waiting with no position.$POPMART 🔥LABUBU's first revenue decline, a heavy 5 billion buyback, is the real opportunity for POPMART here? $POPMART
The half-year report revealed a major signal: top IP LABUBU's revenue dropped 7.5% year-on-year. Once the news broke, Hong Kong stocks plunged nearly 8.9% intraday, and panic spread instantly.
But many only saw the negative news, overlooking the solid multiple positive backstops behind it:
✅ Up to HKD 5 billion large-scale buyback to support the stock
With HKD 12.4 billion cash on hand and zero interest-bearing debt, cash flow is very solid. The large buyback is very likely for cancellation, directly boosting earnings per share. Management is showing confidence with real money, acknowledging the current undervaluation.
✅ Strong resilience in the domestic base
Mainland revenue surged 47.3%, not relying on aggressive store openings but significantly improving single-store efficiency. Membership surpassed 100 million with stable repurchase rates, firmly building a local moat.
✅ Key step forward in IP lineup transformation
Star People’s revenue soared nearly 6 times, quickly becoming the second largest IP. Currently, six IPs have half-year revenues exceeding 1 billion, gradually reducing reliance on the single LABUBU IP, shifting from single-IP dividends to a multi-IP driven model.
✅ Big investors bullish against the trend
Duan Yongping publicly stated that short-term growth slowdown does not mean fundamentals are broken; long-term prices already offer good value.
✅ Proactively choosing painful adjustments
Management proactively lowered performance expectations, positioning 2026 as a year of operational adjustment, prioritizing solving overseas inventory and supply chain issues. They are willing to sacrifice short-term growth to solidify the long-term foundation. JUST IN: Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf takes a shot at the U.S. bond market:
"Importing frozen meat to fix meat prices. Okay, that might work. What's the plan for bonds, import frozen yields?"
$BSB This chart was posted by a paid blogger called "Teacher Dabai" about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle theory. The core points are twofold:
**First layer: Cycle timetable**
He divides Bitcoin's history into perfectly symmetrical blocks—bull market 1,064 days, bear market 364 days, one cycle exactly 1,428 days (about 4 years), aligning with the halving cycle. According to his calculation, the bear market in 2026 has lasted 312 days, 52 days short of 364 days, roughly bottoming out in mid-October.
**Second layer: Decreasing decline**
Each bear market bottom has a smaller drop: -93% → -85% → -77% → -73% → this round -55%. This means the market matures and the drops become shallower; this round will drop at most to around $49,000 (calculated as -55% from the $109K peak).
**My judgment: The direction is right, but the numbers are contrived.**
Reasonable parts:
- The 4-year halving cycle does exist, and historically bull and bear alternations are roughly consistent
- The decreasing decline trend also holds—institutions entering and larger market cap do reduce volatility
- The big picture of "be greedy when others are fearful" is correct
Unbelievable parts:
1. **1,064 days and 364 days are artificially symmetrical.** From the 2022 November bottom to the 2025 January top is only 790 days, not 1,064. He stretches the timeline to fit the numbers.
2. **The -73% drop never happened.** The actual 2022 drop was -77% ($69K→$15.5K). He inserted an extra data point to smooth the decreasing curve.
3. **Being precise about "52 days left to bottom" is fortune-telling.** The market doesn't follow a calendar; the 2018 bear market lasted 364 days but this one doesn't have to.
4. **BTC is now $77K, only down 29% from the $109K peak,** far from the -55% ($49K) he claims. Either his -55% hasn't happened yet, or this round won't be that deep.
**Relation to your strategy:**
His "epic buying opportunity" direction aligns with your plan to build positions on pullbacks, but you don't need to trust his precise "mid-October bottom" timetable. You already have a staggered plan—first batch at $75.7K, second at $72K, third at $67K; buy when reached, wait if not.
If it really drops to $49K (-55%), that's an extreme black swan scenario, and even your third batch at $67K might not catch it. But the probability of this is low, and if it happens, it would be the best entry opportunity of your life.
**Summary: You can look at the chart, but don't trade strictly by it. The cycle theory is a rearview mirror, not a crystal ball. Your own staggered plan is much more reliable than his precise timetable.**近期BTC快速突破，价格一度逼近8万美元附近。很多人认为只是消息刺激，但拆解之后会发现，这轮上涨实际上是宏观、资金、政策、杠杆四个因素共同推动的结果。 第一，宏观流动性预期改善。 美国财政部扩大长期国债回购规模，市场将其解读为稳定长端利率、改善流动性的信号。债券收益率压力缓解后，美元走弱，资金风险偏好提升，比特币作为稀缺资产重新获得关注。 第二，ETF资金重新回归。 相比过去单纯靠情绪推动，这轮上涨最大的区别是机构现货资金参与。近期美国BTC现货ETF连续出现净流入，单周资金流入超过16亿美元，说明市场出现真实买盘，而不仅是短线投机。 第三，监管预期改善。 市场正在关注美国加密监管框架推进，政策不确定性的降低，有助于机构进一步配置数字资产。 第四，空头清算形成加速器。 BTC此前长期震荡，大量空头仓位积累。当价格突破关键阻力后，空单被迫平仓，形成“上涨—爆仓—继续上涨”的正反馈。近期市场出现数十亿美元级别空头清算，这也是短期快速拉升的重要原因。 但需要注意： 空头回补可以推动行情启动，却不能单独支撑长期上涨。 接下来真正决定趋势的，是ETF资金能否持续流入，以及宏观流动性是否继续改善。Zcash recently broke through $840, reaching an eight-year high, as market revaluation sentiment for the privacy sector and zero-knowledge proof technology spreads to a broader infrastructure layer. Behind this rally is a dual resonance of technology and capital driven by the formal verification of privacy pools and the warming expectations for compliant trust products.
It is worth noting that the current macro environment is not calm. The US PMI hitting a four-year high has caused September rate hike divergences, and gold breaking through $4600 challenges traditional safe-haven logic. In this environment of divergent interest rate expectations and risk assets searching for new pricing anchors, crypto infrastructure with genuine technical barriers often better supports mid-term capital allocation needs than purely narrative-driven assets.
The position of $FIL in this context deserves serious consideration. The Filecoin network deeply relies on zero-knowledge proof technology and itself serves as decentralized infrastructure for privacy data storage. When the technical credibility of the privacy sector gains market endorsement through formal verification, this endorsement extends beyond a single token to the entire ZK technology stack.
The formal verification of privacy pools proves one thing: privacy and compliance can coexist. This is an important signal for on-chain sensitive data storage needs—when institutions and developers start seriously considering privacy data on-chain, they require not only privacy computing layers but also decentralized storage layers to accommodate this data. The Filecoin network occupies a key node in this chain.
Of course, the main driver of the current rally remains concentrated on ZEC itself; the nearly 9x leverage gap between futures and spot trading volumes indicates highly speculative market sentiment. Whether $FIL can shift from narrative linkage to independent demand pricing depends primarily on changes in actual on-chain storage usage and the progress of compliant storage product implementation.
Cross-market linkage logic also supports this judgment. Against the backdrop of gold reaching historic highs and bonds’ safe-haven status being challenged, some capital is seeking alternative assets that combine practical value with inflation resistance. Decentralized storage networks provide real data storage services, and this practicality becomes a relatively stable value support amid increasing macro uncertainty.
The technical revaluation of the privacy sector is a rare window of opportunity. If spot capital continues to support the privacy narrative and the approval process for compliant trust products advances, capital flowing from single privacy tokens to storage networks with underlying verification capabilities will be the most anticipated structural evolution of this rally. The long-term growth logic of $FIL is awaiting this narrative to complete the transition from sentiment to demand.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注The current surge method, look carefully before taking action: BTC surged sharply from 64,000 to 77,000–79,000 (touched 79,500 on 8/21), ETH rose nearly 30% weekly to over 2400, but on 8/23 it retreated from the high, with 24h long liquidations accounting for over 80% (880 million USD across the network).
The main drivers of this wave are the Treasury's balance sheet expansion + White House summit expectations + short covering ($3 billion short positions forcibly closed), while ETF net inflows of about 1.1 billion over two days are just taking over, not igniting the rally.
It's not that you can't enter the market, but you absolutely must not chase the bullish candles. Confirmation of a reversal requires three conditions: ① a pullback to 74,000–76,000/BTC or 2300–2350/ETH with volume contraction and stabilization; ② when rising again, spot volume ≥ 1.5 times the average volume of the previous 5 days; ③ ETF net inflows continuously for 3 consecutive days without interruption. Missing any one means a forced short squeeze tail wave.
Currently, the daily RSI is 82, indicating overbought; a giant whale sold 7,700 BTC in 3 days; chasing highs means taking over trapped positions. Wait for a pullback to catch, or a volume breakout above 80,000 to follow the right side; anything in between is just itchy hands tax.After ETH's violent surge, it's now time to test the relay.
In just one week, ETH has made a sharp rebound of nearly 30%, surging intraday to the $2500 mark.
Traders who chose to short against the trend at the high levels essentially participated in a collective "donation" drama worth over $1.1 billion.
In recent times, ETH short liquidations have cumulatively exceeded $1.1 billion. A large part of this rally comes from shorts being forced to cover their positions. Simply put, shorts were liquidated and forced to buy back, pushing the price up.
But the reality must be recognized: short squeezes are just the fuel for the boost. Once the short positions are exhausted, whether the market can continue to rise depends on whether spot buyers and institutional funds can take over the baton.
Don't simply attribute this rally to retail speculation. In the just-concluded trading week, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $697 million, setting a new single-week inflow record for 2026.
Wall Street institutions are no longer watching from the sidelines; they are entering with real money. Compared to retail traders who chase pumps and dumps repeatedly, institutional funds have longer holding periods, which is the most solid foundation for ETH to hold near $2400.
After touching $2500, the price quickly pulled back and is now oscillating around $2400. This shows a large amount of profit-taking above, with strong willingness to cash out.
The current market is like a runner who has just finished a sprint in a long race, needing to catch their breath and recover at the $2400 mark. The key focus in the next 48 hours is market performance; if it can stabilize here, it means institutional buying has fully absorbed this wave of selling pressure.
After the short-term surge, the market has accumulated a large amount of high-level long leverage, and risks have quietly built up. Once ETF inflows slow down and the already profitable positions start to flee en masse, a stampede-like crash could easily occur.
The $2350–$2450 range will become the main battleground for bulls and bears, with frequent sharp fluctuations becoming the norm.
As long as the gate for ETF fund inflows remains open, $2500 is merely a psychological barrier, far from the end of this rally. The current back-and-forth oscillation is more like the main players shaking off holders who are not mentally firm.
ETH is currently at a critical juncture where the short squeeze has ended and institutional funds are taking over the relay.
Avoid subjective top calls, and do not increase leverage in the consolidation range. Treat $2400 as the dividing line between strength and weakness; as long as institutional funds keep entering, shorts will continue to be under pressure.
$BTC is oscillating after the surge, $ETH funds continue to flow in #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
⚠️This is only a personal market review and does not constitute investment advice. Contract leverage carries extremely high risk.Actually, I started thinking at the beginning of August about how far this rebound could go.
At that time, the price was around 1860, and BTC seemed to be near 632. I thought it had been consolidating sideways for more than a month.
Could this rise be very strong?
My technical analysis back then suggested it could reach 728, or more aggressively 758.
But then I considered the macro factors: first, the expectations around the clarity bill;
second, it looked very much like an accumulation phase, and since accumulation had lasted over a month, the breakout strength should be at least above 20,000;
third, the issue with US debt, which has now reached a scale of 40 trillion dollars. It’s unlikely that interest rates will rise; more likely, they will be cut, either by diluting credit, cutting rates, or releasing liquidity.
However, there are two macro factors I’m bearish on: first, the long-term cycle direction is still bearish; second, Trump’s midterm elections. If he gets impeached, crypto will crash hard because Trump supports cryptocurrencies. If he is impeached, the next president will definitely bring market uncertainty, especially regarding regulation. If the clarity bill passes, will the new president try to repeal or strengthen regulations on Bitcoin and Ethereum? The market will anticipate this and might kill the bulls.
Another point is if MicroStrategy goes long at this level and keeps adding positions, but if a correction happens and MicroStrategy can’t hold on, they will be forced to sell a lot of $BTC, which is baffling.Today, the overall sentiment in altcoins is exuberant, but differentiation is obvious. $ZEC is the absolute focus today. Stimulated by Grayscale's submission of a Zcash ETF application, ZEC broke through $833 to hit a record high, rising over 40% in 24 hours, with a market cap reaching about $13.9 billion. However, note that this rally is mainly driven by contract leverage, with spot demand not keeping pace, resulting in huge 24-hour volatility and sharply increased risk of chasing highs. $OKB rose more than 10% intraday, touching $120, currently at $116.7, with a market cap of $24.69 billion, representing a steady catch-up rally. $SOL, on the other hand, showed a clear pullback, falling below the $90 mark, with a daily drop of over 4%. There is considerable short-term profit-taking pressure. Unlike the heated crypto market, memory chip stocks have also shown an independent trend but overall performed better than the broader market. $SKHYNIX was stimulated by a massive 40 trillion KRW buyback plan, with its US ADR rising about 4%; $SNDK has surged 561% year-to-date, and $MU is up over 2%. The memory sector has recently continued to strengthen against the trend, directly related to AI computing power demand and high bandwidth memory (HBM) prosperity. This sector has solid fundamentals and can be watched mid-term, but short-term gains are already large, so chasing highs requires caution. In summary: ZEC leads gains but carries high leverage-driven risk, $SOL is under short-term pressure, memory chip stocks have strong fundamentals but watch the pace. Overall market leverage is relatively high, so be very cautious when chasing gains. The macro expectation of interest rate cuts being blocked has caused liquidity in the crypto market to stagnate, while US AI chip and storage sectors are attracting cross-market capital overflow. BTC trading has stalled at $77,000 with futures volume plummeting by 70%, as funds shift toward $SNDK, which is releasing an 8TB SD card, and US stocks related to H200. Only if the expectation of rate cuts restarts or the AI premium in US stocks spreads outward can the crypto market complete another round of capital handoff. The key observation is whether BTC futures volume can rebound and effectively hold above the $77,000 level.
#特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元Brothers, it's early Monday morning, the US market is about to reopen soon. For those who haven't taken positions yet, I suggest waiting until the US market opens before entering. Weekend liquidity is too thin, and the spikes are ruthless; only when institutional funds return can the direction be clearly seen. Let's first review what happened over the weekend. BTC surged from around 63,000 during the week to a high of 79,500, with a weekly increase of over 22%. Last week, the US Treasury announced a doubling of long-term bond repurchase size to 4 billion per operation, causing US bond yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, which directly boosted risk assets. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of about 1.9 billion USD over five days, showing real institutional money coming in. But over the weekend, when the US stock market and ETFs stopped, the market was left with only contracts and leveraged funds playing. After BTC touched 79,500 on Friday, it was hammered down sharply to around 75,500, then slowly bounced back to around 77,000 in the morning. BTC is currently around 77,000. The heavy resistance zone above is 78,400-79,500, where it was just pushed down once on Friday. The first support below is 76,300-76,600, and further down 75,500 is the weekend low, which must not be lost. Personally, I will wait for a pullback to 76,300-76,600 to stabilize before making a move, with a stop loss below 75,500. If the US market opens and volume breaks through 78,400, then the weekend was just a pure shakeout, with a target of 79,500-80,000. ETH has also been strong this round, rising from around 2,300 during the week to a high of 2,546. The spot Ethereum ETF had a weekly net inflow of over 500 million USD, with a single-day high of 189 million, the highest since last October Bitcoin hovers with reduced volume around the $77,000 mark, while U.S. chip and hardware supply chains continue to accumulate under the catalyst of AI orders.
The Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.9 billion, but derivatives futures trading volume shrank by 70%, leaving the overall market in a wait-and-see mode.
SanDisk's launch of an 8TB SD card drove $SNDK up over 8%, combined with Nvidia's H200 chip backlog extending to Q2 next year, funds are flowing toward hardware with higher earnings visibility.
The delay in macro interest rate cut expectations has restrained broad expansion of high-risk assets, with cross-market liquidity favoring tech stocks supported by actual orders.
If edge AI's demand for large-capacity storage exceeds expectations, the U.S. tech premium will continue to strengthen; however, only if spot buying pushes Bitcoin through key resistance will the window for capital to return to crypto markets open.
If subsequent chip supply and demand ease leads to hardware valuation corrections, and macro interest rates remain high, tech stocks and crypto assets lacking incremental liquidity will face simultaneous downward pressure.
When crypto derivatives trading volume recovers and breaks out with increased volume, the logic of cross-market funds favoring a unilateral U.S. stock market will no longer hold.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether crypto futures trading volume can increase and recover to reverse liquidity diversion.
#特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大Before shorting $SOON, I took a look at the order book. Sell orders above 0.21 are piled up like a mountain, but buy orders below 0.2096 are as thin as paper.
This means that once someone starts dumping, the price will instantly collapse due to lack of support orders.
I'm shorting not because I predict it will fall, but because I confirm it "can't rise anymore." Currently at 0.1939, buy orders remain sparse. Set a stop loss at 0.20; if large buy orders appear below as support, indicating funds are bottom-fishing, exit immediately. $BTC $ETH