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Although Nvidia's earnings report has extended the demand for computing power to 2027, the ceiling for hardware infrastructure has actually been reached, and now it's time for AI software to take the stage.
On the surface, Nvidia's earnings report shows a slight drop in profit margin due to rising memory prices. But Huang directly stated that next year's revenue will increase by at least 70%, with orders doubling to $279 billion.
This indicates that the big players are still pouring money in desperately, with a handover between old and new, and performance even outpacing before.
However, the hidden risk lies precisely in this explosive order growth. The production capacity for the next two years has been fully booked in advance, and next quarter the market will definitely ask: without access to the Chinese market, where else can you find new customers?
Expectations for the hardware side have been completely overdrawn, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to keep raising expectations by selling machines.
Capital is always smart; since hardware expectations are maxed out, money will definitely flow downstream.
The phase of blindly pouring money into infrastructure is over. Going forward, whoever can turn their machines into software that people are willing to pay for will be the one to capture the biggest dividend of this wave.
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 Today I want to talk about a rarely discussed topic, which might sound a bit "hard to understand," and that is my "savings mindset" towards Bitcoin. The germination of this mindset probably started in 2022, when my strategy of regularly accumulating coins had already been strengthened to the point of being almost mechanical. So what exactly is my "savings mindset"? In terms of specific behavior, suppose I want to buy a phone now that costs 10,000 yuan, and I have gold and Bitcoin as assets. I would sell Bitcoin worth 10,000 yuan to make the purchase, and the Bitcoin sold might have been bought back in 2022 when it was 20,000 yuan. Even though Bitcoin is now 80,000 yuan, and I might have just recently bought some Bitcoin at 80,000 yuan. From a trading perspective, this might feel uncomfortable. "I just bought it at 80,000 yuan, and now I’m selling it after only a few days? What if it rises to 100,000 yuan in a couple of days?" But from a savings perspective, it feels completely different because I have an overall concept in my mind: the BTC savings pool. I bought 5,000 yuan worth in 2022 when it was 20,000 yuan, another 5,000 yuan in 2023, 10,000 yuan in 2024, 20,000 yuan in 2025, and 10,000 yuan this year. All these BTC amounts are mixed together, forming my savings pool. It doesn’t matter which batch the 10,000 yuan I withdraw today belongs to. BTC is just BTC; there’s no distinction like "this coin is from 2022, that one is from 2025." What I own is a pool that I keep adding to and withdraw from when needed.#财报观察员：AI demand spreads from hardware to software
The leader has something to say
The AI industry chain earnings season is basically wrapping up, with reports from hardware to software all submitted, and the conclusion is very clear.
The hardware side is still strong
NVIDIA's Q2 revenue doubled, with data center revenue up 117% year-over-year. Marvell's revenue increased 37% year-over-year, and next quarter's guidance is above expectations. Demand for computing power and network connectivity has not slowed down; it is still accelerating.
Software side realizes large-scale gains for the first time
CrowdStrike's quarterly revenue grew 26%, with net new annual recurring revenue up 51% to 333 million, and the full-year outlook was raised. Salesforce and Okta also received positive market feedback thanks to improved performance and guidance.
However, Synopsys's stock price came under pressure after its earnings report. The market is becoming selective; not all AI-related companies can command a premium.
The focus of discussion has changed
The market no longer questions whether AI demand exists; it asks which companies can convert investments into orders, recurring revenue, and free cash flow. If the software side's improvement continues, it will be more stable than the hardware procurement cycle because software revenue is subscription-based, unlike chip shipments which have order cycles.
Both hardware and software sides are improving, and the breadth of AI commercialization is expanding. If this trend continues, the overall valuation logic of tech stocks will be rewritten. $BTC $ETH $SOL
On the market front, Bitcoin is oscillating around 81,000. All long positions have been closed, profits taken. Ethereum was sold from around 2480 to 2520, with a short position at 2540 stopped out at 2580 and still held. No heavy positions before Wash's speech tonight; will wait for direction.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.#财报观察员：AI demand spreading from hardware to software
In the AI market these past couple of days, I think a more important change than Nvidia continuing to sell explosively is that software companies are finally starting to connect to AI revenue.
Nvidia's Q2 revenue reached $96.2 billion, with data center revenue at $89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 117%, indicating that demand for AI infrastructure remains very strong. But on the other hand, the market reaction after Salesforce's earnings report was even more dramatic, with its stock price rising about 22.6% in a single day, one of the largest gains in years. The market is beginning to reprice its AI Agent and enterprise software growth logic.
This actually answers a question the market has been asking for the past six months:
After buying back hundreds of billions of dollars worth of GPUs, who can really make money from them?
If AI only makes money at Nvidia, HBM, and data centers, then the whole market is ultimately just a huge CAPEX cycle.
But if software companies like Salesforce start turning AI into real revenue through AI Agents, enterprise automation, and subscription services, then the logic is completely different.
The industry chain begins to shift from: selling GPUs → building data centers → enterprises using AI → software charging fees.
I believe a truly healthy AI bull market should not have only Nvidia making money. When AI demand spreads from hardware to software, the market begins to see the "revenue side" of this hundreds of billions of dollars arms race $BB Tonight at 10 PM, Waller's Jackson Hole debut, gold, BTC, and ETH are all waiting for a word from him.
This is his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office as Fed Chair in May. The background is tricky: inflation is still at 3.4%, and in the July FOMC he voted 9:3 to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but he didn’t clearly explain how to bring inflation down, and the market is already questioning his credibility. After taking office, he cut forward guidance and canceled the dot plot, basically saying "we'll see the data," but the market hates uncertainty the most. The 30-year US Treasury yield has already hit a new high since 2007.
The core question tonight is: can Waller provide a clear policy framework?
This directly determines the direction of the three major assets: gold has already surged to $4600, relying on damaged US Treasury credit and safe-haven demand. If Waller leans hawkish and stabilizes the dollar, gold may pull back in the short term; BTC is steady around 78,000-79,000, with ETFs continuously attracting funds, but the interest rate trend will decide whether capital is willing to keep pushing; ETH is hovering near 2,500, more volatile than BTC, and a single word from Waller could cause sharp moves up or down.
More than three members inside the FOMC already support restarting rate hikes, and there are only 18 days left until the September meeting. Personal view: Waller will most likely reaffirm the 2% target without wavering, emphasize data dependence, and not give a clear rate hike commitment. But the market wants to know "under what conditions will action be taken," not "I'll see how it goes." If he remains vague, the volatility of gold, BTC, and ETH will not be small. $BTC $ETH Bitcoin's market structure may be entering a new phase. As more holders return to profit, forced selling can fade — but profit-taking can rise. Some investors may exit at breakeven, while others lock in gains after the rally. That creates supply, but supply isn't necessarily bearish. 📊 THE REAL TEST: DEMAND If fresh capital, including ETF demand, absorbs the selling, BTC can transition from absorption to expansion. I'm watching three things: Holder profitability → potential supply ETF flows → fIf even Nvidia's earnings report can't save the market, then this round of rally is truly just an illusion built on leverage. Have you ever wondered why everyone is staring at the same screen? First, let's talk about the first layer of signals I see: the total daily liquidation volume of CORE contracts is only $14,200, with long and short positions switching back and forth four times, finally barely breaking even. This number is negligible in the entire market. But precisely this kind of "zero trading" coin best reflects the real sentiment — funds are simply too lazy to care about it, retail investors are hyping themselves up inside, and the whales don't even have the desire to harvest. This is not an opportunity; this is a liquidity desert. Now look at the real main battlefield. Core PCE month-over-month is flat at 3.3%, which on the surface meets expectations, but looking closely at the structure: real consumer spending is almost zero growth month-over-month, and the strong momentum in May and June has been abruptly cut off. Inflation stickiness remains, the consumption engine has stalled, and the Fed's September policy meeting is under intense pressure. CME data shows the market is betting on a 59.9% chance of no change in September and a 40.1% chance of a rate hike — this number has shifted again since last week, indicating Wall Street is repricing the possibility of "higher for longer." But the real variable is not in the data itself, but in the words that follow. The new Fed Chair, Waller, will deliver his first public speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. This person is known for a hawkish stance, and in July's FOMC, three members voted against, exposing internal divisions. The market is now betting that Waller will take a strongerLast night, three rapid trades
Entered and immediately caught the waterfall
Directly doubled the profit
$ETH entered at 2513
$BTC entered at 80300
$ZEC entered at 819
Three short positions
Trades that were profitable as soon as entered
Unfortunately, it was just a simple pullback
Not a big waterfall
Doubled the profit
Later, I lost some gains by exiting too early
If I had been a bit more stubborn and held on
I would have been stopped out again
This breakout even surpassed the previous high of $BTC at 81500
I said in my group chat to short at 81700
Short $ETH at 2550
Unfortunately, after being stopped out by a trailing take profit, I went to sleep
I placed the orders and stopped watching the market, it was very late and I was exhausted
If I had kept watching, this rebound going up
I definitely could have shorted and profited, and probably wouldn’t have missed it
Would have continued to build the position
I suggest everyone protect their principal when taking profits
If the trend is right, you eat; if the trend is wrong, protect your principal and look for another opportunity
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Morgan Stanley: Don't Short
The US dollar has weakened significantly; Federal Reserve policy exceeded expectations; geopolitical risks; changes in China's capital controls.
Summary of views: The "dollar weakening expectation" leads to a repricing of Asia-Pacific assets—hedge funds are betting on a weaker dollar (Besent fiscal plan + Dalio warning), but JPMorgan cautions "don't chase shorts" (positions are not extreme, and interest rate differentials still provide support). For Asia-Pacific investors, the direction of the dollar determines two types of opportunities: a weak dollar benefits ASEAN (Indonesia); a stable dollar keeps export chains (South Korea, Taiwan) under control. The upgrade by Guotai Haitong indicates that the synergy logic of Chinese brokerage mergers is being recognized by foreign capital.
A weak dollar is good for gold. $XAU
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Brothers, $SNDK has returned to this critical position again.
Just checked the data: on Wednesday, SNDK closed at $1484.95, down 0.96%, with an intraday low of $1456, and slightly rebounded to around $1484 after hours. The $1461 reported by the brothers is basically near the intraday low. Now the price is back in the $1450-$1500 support battle zone.
📊 What happened? Two pieces of news are pulling in opposite directions
Positive: 5 trillion yen investment plan announced
After-hours news: SNDK and Kioxia jointly announced plans to invest 5 trillion yen (about $34 billion) by 2032, with 1.8 trillion yen allocated to building new semiconductor factories and expanding NAND flash capacity in Japan. This is a heavy asset bet lasting six years, proving the two companies' confidence in the sustained demand for NAND.
Negative: The market votes with its feet
But the announcement came after the US stock market closed, and no obvious excitement was seen in the futures. In the Korean stock market, Kioxia-related stocks were sold off for profit-taking, indicating the market's first reaction to the news was "selling at the high"—given the current high AI storage valuation and the stock price having risen 50 times from the year's low, the market prefers to exit first.
📊 Market status: $1450 is the bulls' last line of defense
The past week's trend is clear:
August 24: plunged 6.45%, hitting a low of $1416, with volume at 14.03 million shares, significantly above recent averages
August 26: rebounded to $1499 but failed to hold $1500
August 27: fell again, hitting a low of $1456
Analysts view $1400-$1450 as the core support observation zone. If buyers can stabilize in this area and retake $1500, a short-term bottom may form; if $1400 is effectively broken, the next observation zone is $1300-$1350.
💎 Fundamentals: The long-term logic remains solid
JPMorgan resumed coverage in August with a $2250 target price. The core logic has three points: NAND supply shortage, locked-in profits from long-term contracts, and continuous product innovation. Among 24 analysts covering the stock, 20 maintain a "buy" rating, with an average target price around $2126, about 42% higher than current levels.
The company has signed multi-year long-term contracts with 8 customers, covering about 50% of FY27 shipments and about two-thirds of FY28 shipments, locking in at least $93.9 billion in revenue. Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, with a gross margin of 84.6%, and data center business grew 437% year-over-year.
Good companies' prices can still fall. From $1828 down to $1450, this is just profit-taking after a sharp rise plus sector-wide correction, unrelated to fundamentals.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
Long: consider after confirming stabilization at $1440-$1460, stop loss at $1400, target $1500-$1530
Short: if rebound to $1500-$1530 is weak, try light short positions, tight stop loss, target $1450-$1460
Leverage: this stock is highly volatile, control position size
Risk warning: if $1400 breaks, downside space may further open
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 Brothers, the crypto world is just this magical! You thought Trump Coin ($TRUMP) was done for, but it crawled back out of the dirt. This thing hit a historic low of $1.37 on August 13, then violently rebounded, surging over 80% in a week! The price shot from $1.39 to above $2.45, with market cap once hitting $2.1 billion. Others rely on tech roadmaps, but it rides on news headlines. Today, let me break down for you brothers what’s behind this surge.
🚀 Three core drivers of the surge
First, political news is its lifeblood. The trigger for this rally was Trump calling out from the White House, urging Congress to quickly pass the CLARITY Act to set rules for the digital asset market. Although it’s still far from implementation, for Trump-related assets this is a natural trading theme. Plus, he reiterated plans for a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," which sent market sentiment soaring, with funds flooding in during this news-driven cycle.
Second, political Meme coins come with "global traffic" built-in. Ordinary Meme coins have to rack their brains for narratives, but $TRUMP itself is the biggest story. As long as Trump stays trending, and the market still buys into the "politics + Meme + sentiment" combo, this coin won’t lack topics or buyers. Even more impressive, the team launched an "America First Enterprise Challenge," distributing $1 million in coins to 10 companies. Although the official site clearly states the coin has no payment function, the news alone boosted its hype.
Third, the Meme coin sector is overall recovering. When the market warms up, retail funds rush into high-beta Meme coins. This time, old-timers DOGE and SHIB didn’t keep up; money concentrated on political brand assets. But savvy folks know, rather than a sector revival, it’s more like a single bet on Trump’s political news. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Two Core Drivers Behind Capital Inflows
1. Geopolitical + USD Credit Hedging
Repeated US-Iran sanctions and rising regional conflict uncertainties increase demand for safe havens; the US expands long-term bond repurchases, the market begins trading US debt concerns, central bank gold purchases + ETF capital form a dual engine, institutions treat gold as a fiat currency credit hedge tool.
2. Interest Rate Game Under Sticky Inflation
Core PCE inflation remains high, the market is unclear about the Fed's next moves. Capital flows into gold ETFs essentially betting that real interest rates will not keep rising, used to hedge policy misjudgment risks.
Misconceptions About Capital Rotation Between Gold and BTC
- Pure panic-driven safe haven: capital prioritizes gold for safety, withdrawing from high-volatility risk assets like BTC, causing gold to rise while crypto falls.
Currently, it is a neutral allocation phase, not extreme panic; both move in sync temporarily, but if geopolitical tensions worsen sharply, BTC will face selling pressure.
Two Scenario Simulations
Scenario 1: Hawkish Wash Speech
Emphasizes stubborn inflation, keeps rate hike options, US bond yields rise. Gold ETF funds may see temporary outflows, gold prices pressured to pull back; BTC faces increased resistance at high levels, with 77,500 support tested.
Scenario 2: Neutral to Dovish Speech
No tightening signals released, data-dependent stance maintained. Safe-haven funds remain in gold ETFs, gold prices stay volatile at high levels; liquidity expectations improve, giving BTC a chance to retest the 80,000 mark.Jackson Hole Night, 7 Quick Takes
Quick Take 1:
At 22:00 Beijing time, Waller takes the stage at Jackson Hole.
This is not an ordinary speech—this is the Federal Reserve’s credibility "comeback match."
In the past month, the 30-year US Treasury yield once broke 5.34%, the highest since 2007. The Treasury conducted two buybacks, each effective for three days, then yields bounced back again.
The market is "hiking" for the Fed—but Waller hasn’t even given an explanation.
Quick Take 2:
Waller faces a core contradiction: he abolished forward guidance but has not yet established a replacement framework.
The market isn’t asking "whether to hike in September"—federal funds futures show only a 35% chance of a September hike.
What the market wants is: under what conditions will he hike, and under what conditions won’t he.
It’s a one-sentence matter. But he hasn’t said it in three months.
Quick Take 3:
At the July FOMC meeting, 9 voted to keep rates unchanged, 3 voted to hike, the highest in a decade.
This is not consensus; this is division.
Waller needs to explain two things: why hold steady? What conditions would make him change his mind?
He didn’t say at the July press conference. If he doesn’t say on Friday— the market won’t give him a third chance.
Quick Take 4:
Bank of America’s August fund manager survey: 53% expect a neutral speech, 31% hawkish, only 7% dovish.
The market has priced in a "hawkish framework + avoidance of short-term guidance" combo.
In other words—everyone no longer expects answers from him, only that he doesn’t mess things up.
This expectation is frighteningly low.
Quick Take 5:
For BTC, Waller’s "reaction function" is more important than a September hike.
Without a clear framework, the market will price in an "uncertainty premium" across all assets—including crypto assets.
BTC rose from 77,554 to 81,188, up over 3,600 points. What is the market betting on? Betting that Waller won’t be too hawkish.
But what if he says nothing? Then the uncertainty premium will only rise.
Quick Take 6:
CNBC survey: 80% of economists want Waller to share more economic thoughts, but 45% expect he won’t expand on rate outlook.
A 35% "expectation gap"—the biggest source of volatility tonight.
Don’t forget, the 30-year US Treasury yield is still above 5.2%. What are the consequences of another July press conference-level "communication failure"?
You do the math.
Quick Take 7:
Trading advice—whether Waller speaks hawkish or dovish, volatility will explode.
Don’t heavily bet on direction before or after the speech.
Wait for the market to digest before acting.
Survive tonight, and there will be a tomorrow.
See you at 22:00.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI demand is spreading from hardware to software The AI industry chain's earnings season has basically settled, and Mi Ge summarizes it for you: the signal is very clear—the story is spreading from hardware to software.
Hardware hasn't faltered. NVIDIA's Q2 revenue hit 96.2 billion USD, doubling year-over-year, with a fiscal 2028 guidance of 70% growth, smashing expectations. Marvell's revenue grew 37%, and Q3 guidance also exceeded consensus. Demand for computing power and network connectivity remains strong.
But what truly excites the market are the signals from the software side. CrowdStrike's revenue grew 26%, net new annual recurring revenue increased 51%, and it raised its full-year outlook. Salesforce's AI products have nearly 4 billion USD in annualized recurring revenue. Okta also received positive market response thanks to improved results and guidance.
The core change in one sentence: the market no longer asks "Is there AI demand?" but rather "Who can convert AI into orders, renewals, and cash flow?"
Pressure after Synopsys' earnings reveals another issue—not all companies benefiting from AI are treated equally. The market is selective, only willing to give high valuations to companies that can deliver results.
What is the implication for the crypto market?
The AI narrative is shifting from "hardware dominance" to "hardware-software synergy." Hardware players like NVIDIA continue to profit, but software-side realization is also being priced by the market. For BTC, the overall health of the AI chain is improving, which is good in the long term. But in the short term, the market leadership is not with AI, but with macro liquidity $NVDA NVIDIA released its report early this morning. Q2 revenue reached $96.22 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. The market expected $92.17 billion, so it beat expectations by $4 billion. Data center revenue was $89 billion, also crushing the expected $85.08 billion. The Q3 guidance is $108 billion, with analysts expecting $104.19 billion. After-hours stock price rose 4%, pushing market cap above $5.16 trillion. This is not just a victory for one company; it’s a win for the entire computing power industry chain. Here are three points to help you understand what these numbers mean. First, what does $5.16 trillion represent? It’s more than the entire semiconductor sector combined on the A-share market. It’s no longer just a “tech company” — it’s the foundational supplier of global computing power. Large model training, autonomous driving, AI inference — all rely on its chips. Every BTC you buy runs on its computing power infrastructure. Second, $1 trillion. NVIDIA says that by 2027, their revenue opportunity from AI chips could exceed $1 trillion, twice previous expectations. One trillion in four years. This is not demand; it’s locked-in certainty. Third, computing power costs are decreasing. NVIDIA’s GPUs are getting stronger and cheaper. What does this have to do with BTC? The connection is: as computing power costs drop, mining barriers also lower. Last week, when writing about Zcash, I mentioned a data point: the unit electricity income for mining Zcash is 4.5 times that of BTC. Miners aren’t fools; computing power will flow to the highest-yielding places. AI computing power and BTC computing power are converging toward the same foundational supply.What Warsh says tonight at Jackson Hole is more important than you think — BTC is not a casino, it is a mirror of the US dollar's credit
Many people see the financial news flooding with "Warsh is speaking at Jackson Hole tonight," and their first reaction is:
"None of my business."
So I'll put it this way —
BTC has risen from 63,000 to 81,000 USD in the past week, not because of any new narrative, new applications, or new funds.
It's because the US dollar's credit is leaking.
What you hold is not Bitcoin. What you hold is a ticket of distrust against the fiat currency system.
Tonight at 22:00 Beijing time, Warsh will take the stage at Jackson Hole. This is his first keynote speech since taking office and the only segment broadcast live on TV.
He is not here to talk about blockchain.
But what he says will affect your positions more directly than any KOL's analysis.
[1] First, let's clearly see how we got here
BTC's rise from 63,000 to 81,000 looks like a "gain" on the surface.
But what is the driving factor?
The US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, which the market directly interpreted as implicit easing.
In plain language: The Treasury is acting to suppress long-term interest rates, effectively making the dollar looser.
Then what did the funds do?
They fled.
Fled to gold, fled to Bitcoin.
Hashdex's Chief Investment Officer put it bluntly — Bitcoin does not directly respond to the September rate decision; it follows global liquidity and the long-end yield curve, driven by the same factors as gold.
You think it's an internal crypto matter?
It's fundamentally about fiat currency credit.
Citibank just poured cold water: this gold breakout is all driven by speculative funds; physical demand has not kept up.
Once Warsh turns hawkish, speculators will run faster than anyone.
BTC is the same.
Tonight is not about "what Warsh says," but "which direction the US dollar's credit is heading."
[2] Three transmission paths directly hitting your holdings
Path one: Interest rates
Warsh hawkish → USD strengthens → Opportunity cost of non-yield assets (BTC) rises → BTC under pressure
CME FedWatch shows the market prices a 45% chance of a rate hike in December.
45%. Not a small probability.
Path two: Credit
Warsh continues to be vague, not clarifying the reaction function → USD credibility continues to erode → Gold and BTC as "anti-fiat" assets continue to benefit
Huatai Securities' conclusion is harsh: even if Warsh "turns the tide" tonight, rebuilding the credibility of the dollar and US Treasuries remains a heavy task.
What does this mean?
The wound in the dollar's credit cannot be stitched up by a single speech.
Path three: Volatility
Regardless of direction — policy uncertainty pushes volatility up, causing BTC to fluctuate sharply in the short term.
Bitget Wallet's analyst said it plainly: BTC must hold above 80,000 USD to be considered a true breakout.
And tonight is the test of whether it "holds or not."
[3] Three scenarios, three outcomes
🔥 Hawkish (reaffirm inflation risks + keep rate hike option)
Core PCE is still at 3.3%, target 2%. Inflation has been above target for over five years.
If Warsh takes a tough stance, BTC will face short-term pressure, and the 80,000 level will be tested.
Citibank says: hawkish remarks may end the current rally in gold and BTC.
⚖️ Neutral (talks framework but not rates)
The first thing Warsh did after taking office was to dismantle the Fed's forward guidance — removing forward-looking language from statements and setting up a group to review communication methods.
He doesn't want to give answers. The market wants answers.
If he continues to be vague — the market keeps guessing, and volatility intensifies.
🕊️ Dovish (implying rate hike delay or end)
Dovish signals may push BTC to break through the 81,000 resistance, opening the path to new highs.
But don't forget — the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September is still close to 38%.
Dovish talk and a September rate hike can coexist. Don't be misled.
[Conclusion]
Bitunix's analyst said something worth remembering:
Warsh's speech is important, "not because of discussions around rate cuts, but whether he can help the market understand how the Fed views the relationship between inflation, long-term rates, and the balance sheet."
In other words —
The market is asking: Is the dollar still viable?
BTC is not competing with gold, nor with the dollar.
It is competing with the entire fiat currency system's credit.
Warsh's performance tonight is the latest footnote in this competition.
If he cannot provide a convincing answer —
The market will find its own answer.
That answer might be called Bitcoin.
22:00 tonight. Buckle up.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Bitcoin Attribute Shift: From High Beta Risk Asset Back to "Digital Gold" Safe Haven Logic
The asset attribute of Bitcoin is undergoing a critical shift
Over the past six months, in the broad environment of risk assets rising driven by artificial intelligence, Bitcoin's trading attribute leaned more towards a high beta risk asset rather than a currency hedge tool.
But a reversal seems imminent:
· The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from above 60% to about 33%;
· Its correlation with gold has climbed from nearly 0 at the start of the year to over 50%.
This change may reflect investors beginning to revalue Bitcoin's scarcity, monetary independence, and its role as a store of value.
Macro Environment Pushes "Devaluation Trades" Again
As the market structure shifts, the macro environment once again brings devaluation trades to the forefront:
· The U.S. federal government debt recently surpassed $40 trillion;
· Over the past year, there has been significant sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
The expanding debt scale, persistent fiscal deficits, combined with rising long-term yields, prompt investors to seek assets that can hedge against fiscal and monetary fundamental deterioration.
Bitcoin: A Scarce Asset Born for Crisis Times
Bitcoin was born after the global financial crisis, inherently designed for such environments:
· No centralized issuing authority;
· Transparent and public issuance rules;
· A fixed total supply capped at 21 million coins.
As fiscal imbalances worsen and investors reassess the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is poised to become a liquid alternative asset with scarcity attributes on par with gold.
Key Insights
The combination of scarcity and differentiated return-driven logic makes Bitcoin an extremely attractive allocation option in modern diversified investment portfolios.
As the market re-recognizes the diversification value of scarce digital assets like Bitcoin and their potential risk-hedging ability against fiat currency devaluation, these assets may enter a more favorable market environment.
$BTC
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 BTC surged then pulled back; the real test is just beginning. After BTC broke through $80,000, it quickly retreated and is now fluctuating around $79,000. This round of rally was indeed fierce, with a monthly increase exceeding 25%, but it was driven not only by real money from spot ETFs but also by short sellers being forced to cover, so the short-term rise was not entirely driven by active buying. The funding environment has clearly warmed. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92 billion last week, marking the strongest single-week performance in nearly 10 months; over the past 7 trading days, cumulative inflows reached about $2.5 billion. This indicates institutional funds have indeed re-entered the market, but after BTC's rapid rise, profit-taking pressure on low-position chips will also increase simultaneously. The biggest variable right now is the BTC options expiring on August 28. Deribit has about 81,700 BTC options concentrated for settlement, with a notional value of approximately $6.44 billion, and a call-to-put ratio of about 0.83. Positions are mainly concentrated near $75,000 and $80,000. Notably, the maximum pain point is between $68,000 and $70,000, significantly below the current price, so the battle around expiration could be very intense. My judgment is straightforward: $80,000 is not just a normal round number but a position where long and short costs are highly concentrated. In the short term, as long as $78,000 holds, there is still a chance to retest $80,000–$83,000; if it breaks below $78,000, watch out for a pullback near $75,000. This round of the market has80% of people want answers, 45% expect he won't give any — tonight's "expectation gap" is the biggest trading opportunity
Tonight at 10 PM, Jackson Hole.
Federal Reserve Chair Wash's first keynote speech since taking office.
The entire market is holding its breath.
But one piece of data is chilling upon closer thought —
Latest CNBC survey: 80% of economists want Wash to share more thoughts on the economy.
However, 45% of respondents expect he won't expand on the rate outlook at all.
80% want answers, 45% expect none.
This "expectation gap" is tonight's biggest trading alpha.
First, let's see what the market is pricing in.
CME FedWatch shows a 67.6% chance of a rate hike in December, soaring to 79.5% by March next year. The market believes the Fed is just delaying, not abandoning.
But another data point is even more intriguing —
Prediction market Kalshi data:
Probability Wash mentions "inflation": 90%
Mentions "rate cuts": 8%
Mentions "rate hikes": 23%
Mentions "bond market": 20%
In plain language:
The market is 100% certain — Wash will talk extensively about inflation tonight but absolutely won't give any short-term rate guidance.
If everyone thinks this way, then this pricing is already "priced in."
But what if the prediction market is wrong?
Three scenarios, three strategies.
Scenario 1: Wash unexpectedly gives a clear rate hike signal
— He says, "If inflation doesn't come down, we're ready to hike again."
Dollar surges. Gold under pressure. BTC?
BTC has hovered around $80,000 for a week. A rate hike signal means liquidity continues to tighten, and the "digital gold" narrative is once again disproven.
Scenario 2: Wash unexpectedly releases dovish signals
— He says, "AI investment is pushing up short-term prices, but long-term is deflationary." Or hints, "Rates are already sufficiently restrictive."
Dollar plunges. Gold soars. BTC?
A violent catch-up rally.
BTC jumped from 77,554 to 81,188 in just a few days. Once rate cut expectations become clear, this elasticity will be amplified tenfold.
Scenario 3: Wash remains vague (most likely)
— He talks about productivity, demographics, AI, Fed reform framework. Just doesn't discuss whether to hike in September.
Everything stays the same. Uncertainty continues to be priced in.
But "everything stays the same" itself is the biggest uncertainty.
Why?
Because since taking office, Wash has followed a "talk less" approach. He removed forward guidance from FOMC statements. He doesn't want to "spoon-feed" the market.
The problem is —
The market has been "fed" for over a decade.
From Bernanke to Yellen to Powell, every chair has given clear signals at Jackson Hole.
Now suddenly there's one who doesn't speak.
How will the market react?
Bloomberg Economic Research's conclusion is straightforward: if the market doesn't get the assurances it seeks, Jackson Hole's speech could further accelerate Treasury sell-offs.
Treasury sell-off → yields soar → risk assets get crushed.
Including BTC.
So what's the strategy tonight?
At a moment of highly split expectations, the best strategy is not to bet on direction but on volatility.
No matter if Wash sounds hawkish or dovish, the market will react violently.
Kalshi data shows a 67% chance the S&P 500 will move more than 0.5% after the speech.
BTC's volatility? It will only be greater.
Spot holders, prepare for big swings both ways.
Contract traders, control leverage or just stay out and watch.
A harsh truth.
BTC holders' current state:
Watching gold hold steady at $4600, watching gold approach a three-month high. Their accounts are being worn down repeatedly around $80,000.
Gold is pricing in "rate hikes don't work."
BTC is waiting for "rate cuts to come."
And every word Wash says tonight could be that switch.
When 80% expectation meets 45% probability, the 35% "surprise" in between is tonight's biggest trading alpha.
Set your alarm for 10 PM tonight.
No matter what he says, the market will move.
Are you ready?
$BTC $ETH $XAU #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ OKEx daily chart: TRUMP has risen from the low of 1.366 in mid-August, reaching a high of 3.5, now at 2.699, up +3.17% today, +44% in 7 days, +88% in 30 days.
In the same week, Public Citizen reported: crypto projects related to Trump caused investors to lose at least $4.7 billion, with TRUMP alone contributing about $3.2 billion; his personal crypto-related income in 2025 is about $1.4 billion.
Technically, it’s a breakout and retest; fundamentally, it’s unlocking plus expectations of selling.
The price is rising, but most of the later buyers are sinking.
Meme coins never take responsibility for explanations.
The chart looks good: a half-year of slow decline, then a big bullish reversal.
The news is even more interesting: a report of investors losing $4.7 billion and a price rebound happen in the same week.
Support is seen at 2.2–2.3, resistance at 2.9–3.6.
If it can’t break through 3, it’s a distribution wave; if it holds above 2.5, there’s still a chance for another run.
Friends with 10x leverage, first see clearly who is selling.MRVL Q3 revenue guidance surged to $3.15 billion, exceeding expectations, but gross margin slightly declined to 58%, triggering risk defense from investors over the initial phase of custom chip volume suppressing profitability.
$MRVL Q2 revenue of $2.739 billion and data center revenue of $2.17 billion confirm the continuation of AI infrastructure demand, but after-hours selling pressure reflects that the focus of the game has shifted to margin realization.
In terms of driving factors, the Q3 revenue guidance of $3.15 billion exceeding expectations ranks first, followed closely by position adjustment pressure caused by the gross margin dropping from 58.9% to 58%.
The bullish scenario trigger condition is the conference call providing specific quantitative data for FY27 and FY28; the observation variable is the sustained strength of the connectivity business; the invalidation signal is the inability to increase the proportion of high gross margin products.
The bearish scenario trigger condition is management not providing details on long-term guidance; the observation variable is the degree of gross margin suppression before the acceleration of custom chips in the second half of FY27; the invalidation signal is a rapid after-hours price recovery.
The press release mentions that AI orders remain strong and that the custom business will significantly accelerate in the second half of FY27, changing the timing for investors to confirm the mid-term performance growth slope.
The most important observation variable in the next 24 hours is whether the conference call completes the specific performance targets and gross margin revision path for FY27 and FY28.
#银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Will Walsh talk about the "big picture" tonight? The market only wants to know one thing: under what circumstances will interest rates be raised?
Brothers, tonight at 10 PM, Jackson Hole.
This is Federal Reserve Chair Walsh's first major speech since taking office. The whole market is waiting.
But here’s the problem—Walsh himself might not want to give an answer at all.
A CNBC survey shows that 80% of respondents want Walsh to clearly explain his views on the economy. But in the same survey, 45% don’t expect him to reveal any interest rate path information in tonight’s speech.
There’s a big gap between expectations and reality.
What the market really wants is not "forward guidance."
Walsh has been saying: "I won’t give forward guidance; you look at the data yourselves."
But what the market wants to ask is—"What data exactly are you looking at? How do you interpret it? What data would make you act?"
This is the so-called "reaction function."
In plain language: the Fed’s "if... then..." logic.
If inflation stays above X%, then raise rates. If unemployment rises to Y%, then cut rates. If long-term yields tighten financial conditions on their own, then hold steady.
It’s that simple.
When Powell was in office, this logic was transparent. At Jackson Hole 2025, Powell directly said, "Inflation concerns have taken a back seat; unemployment risk is the top priority"—the market immediately understood: if employment data softens, the Fed will cut rates.
What about Walsh?
Since taking office, he has scrapped forward guidance, stopped providing dot plots, and no longer previews rate paths. He lets the market interpret the data and send signals to the Fed itself.
Sounds cool, right?
But the problem is: no rate path preview ≠ no explanation of decision logic.
An economist from Natixis put it bluntly: "Investors don’t want an ivory tower; they want a reaction function."
MFS Chief Economist Weisman also hit the core: "The key issue isn’t the lack of forward guidance, but the lack of a clear reaction function. Without this framework, the commitment to price stability feels hollow."
What’s Walsh’s dilemma?
After taking office, he set up five working groups to re-examine all Fed functions from "first principles"—how to view inflation, manage the balance sheet, use data, and communicate.
But the working groups are newly formed; results can’t be disclosed in advance.
This is awkward—talking too much about working groups invites criticism of "avoiding the issue"; not talking leaves an information vacuum.
Bank of America has already warned: if Walsh only talks about "big picture" topics like productivity and demographics tonight, without directly addressing inflation and rate hike conditions, the 30-year Treasury yield could be pushed up to 5.5% or higher—more than 30 basis points above current levels, hitting a new 21st-century high.
This is not alarmism. The 30-year Treasury yield broke 5.34% last week, the highest since 2007. The $30 trillion Treasury market’s slightest fluctuation affects global asset pricing.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
In an environment without a clear reaction function, the market will price in a higher "uncertainty premium" across all assets—including BTC.
BTC is hovering around $80,000 tonight. Since August, it has risen from $64,000, up 28%—this rally was driven by Treasury buybacks from the Treasury Department triggering a "currency depreciation trade." But last week’s "rescue" by Bassett didn’t even last a day. The baton has now passed to Walsh.
If Walsh continues to be cryptic tonight—volatility will explode.
If Walsh gives even a slight "if inflation doesn’t fall, I will raise rates" commitment—the market will at least have an anchor.
Here’s a harsh truth.
Walsh wants to scrap forward guidance, that’s fine.
But he must fill the resulting vacuum with a reaction function.
Otherwise, the market will only punish uncertainty with higher volatility.
At 10 PM tonight, it depends on whether Walsh provides a framework or continues to dodge.
Provide a framework, the market has an anchor. Dodge, volatility awaits.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $CORE
STX is the competitor in the BTCFi track. Careful observation of both makes it easy to reach the best conclusion. Both have similar total coin supply, with STX having a few million less. STX's circulating supply has been fully released, while CORE still has 40% unreleased, meaning there will be significant uncertainty in the future. In contrast, STX has almost no uncertainty, at most just following the overall BTC market. However, if institutions flood in massively, you can imagine the impact! Furthermore, the project team behind CORE remains an unknown factor. Over the years, they have used every narrative tactic to deceive new users and consensus holders repeatedly, making it extremely difficult to get out once trapped. Many data points are right in front of you; everyone should consider carefully! $STX#BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies the key level battle
Is 80,000 considered stable? Actually, it hasn't fully held yet.
Currently, $BTC is indeed oscillating repeatedly around 80,000 USD. Today it once broke above 80,800 USD intraday, but then fell back to around 80,150. Saying it is "stable at 80,000" is still premature; it now looks more like a tug-of-war at this psychological threshold.
There is considerable resistance nearby. The 80,000 to 82,000 USD range has accumulated a large amount of short-term chips, roughly 8% of the total market supply (about 1.59 million BTC), and these short-term profit positions could be cashed out at any time. Above that, from 83,000 to 86,000 USD, there is also a selling pressure zone from long-term holders waiting.
Additionally, there is a key variable tonight: Bitcoin options worth 6.4 billion USD expire today, with over 500 million USD in positions concentrated near 80,000 USD. Market makers’ hedging operations may amplify short-term volatility, causing the price to either be "pinned" near 80,000 or accelerate through this level.
Next, it depends on whether it can truly hold above 80,000 and break out with volume past 81,000; otherwise, the rhythm will remain a high-level oscillation.$BTC has been pushed down several times whenever it approached 82000! Why?
The real answer lies in the massive options positions worth $6.44 billion expiring today! #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
Currently, the price is tightly trapped within the strike price range of these options:
Above 82000
A large number of big players have sold call options here to earn premiums.
Market makers hedge their risk by passively selling BTC whenever the price nears 82000, creating an invisible wall of selling pressure that blocks every upward attempt.
Below 75000
Conversely, a large volume of put options is concentrated here.
When the price drops near 75000, market makers are forced to buy BTC to cover, providing support at this level.
In the middle at 80000 is the central point where option positions are most concentrated.
If the price approaches 80000 from below, market makers sell; if it falls below 80000, they buy.
This explains why BTC has been oscillating around 80000 without a clear direction over the past three days.
When the 81,700 BTC options expire and settle tomorrow, this hedging force that has constrained the market will disappear.
With large positions concentrated at 75000 and 80000 expiring, the Gamma pinning effect suppressing the market will be lifted, allowing the market to freely find a new price. $BTC $ETH ⚠️We may be experiencing the first true "bear market" in Bitcoin's entire network hashrate history.
First, let's explain two terms:
Bear Market = a bear market, representing a cooling down and downward phase in the market.
Hashrate = the total network hashrate, simply understood as the combined computing power of all Bitcoin miners worldwide.
Over the past decade-plus, Bitcoin's price has gone through multiple bull and bear cycles, but one thing has almost always kept rising—the total network hashrate.
When the price drops, miners hold on;
When the market is bearish, mining efficiency improves;
After each cycle, the total network hashrate hits new highs again.
But now the situation is starting to change.
If hashrate continues to decline, it means more and more miners are exiting the competition, miners are shutting down machines, relocating hashrate, or even shifting resources to more profitable businesses like AI data centers.
This could mean:
For the first time, Bitcoin is experiencing simultaneous cooling in both the "price cycle" and the "hashrate cycle."
Of course, a decline in hashrate does not necessarily mean Bitcoin's price will crash.
But it at least indicates one issue:
The mining industry is under increasing cost pressure.
Electricity costs, mining machine efficiency, coin price, mining difficulty—any worsening in these factors could push marginal miners out.
So next, I will focus on one key data point:
Whether the total network hashrate can turn upward again.
If it continues downward, this might not be just an ordinary miner reshuffle, but Bitcoin mining's first true "hashrate bear market."📉$BTC #Will_Wash_appear_at_Jackson_Hole_tonight_and_clarify_the_policy_framework? Good afternoon everyone $BTC $ETH $SOL
PCE met expectations, confirming inflation stickiness, and the market shifts focus to Wash's speech at Jackson Hole tonight. Wash has abandoned traditional forward guidance, with policy fully data-dependent. The speech focuses on three points: whether to accept slow inflation decline, whether to keep rate hike options, and how to view AI productivity's impact on policy. There are three scenarios corresponding to BTC, ETH, SOL.
Scenario 1: Hawkish stance (keeping rate hike possibility, emphasizing uncompromising 2% inflation target)
US Treasury yields rise, risk-free returns increase.
BTC: Long-term base holdings remain, but leveraged longs will be liquidated; high-level oscillation tests support, difficult to break upward; defensive but lacks offensive power.
ETH: Staking yield relative value further weakens, ETH/BTC ratio under pressure, follows market pullback, correction larger than BTC.
SOL: Most harmed, speculative chips flee quickly, on-chain hotspots extinguish, high beta assets fall first, pulse rally ends abruptly.
Scenario 2: Neutral stance (acknowledges stubborn inflation but no clear rate hike, emphasizes wait-and-see)
This is the current market baseline expectation, matching PCE meeting expectations.
BTC: Continues oscillating above 80000 range, no new catalysts, pricing depends on ETF funds and crypto policy.
ETH: No extra macro suppression, waiting on own regulation and L2 narratives, hard to have independent rally.
SOL: Macro black swan removed, but no easing dividend, only maintains existing hotspot competition, market intermittent with only local short-term opportunities.
Scenario 3: Dovish stance (values AI productivity dividend, downplays rate hikes, hints high rates won't last indefinitely)
US Treasury yields fall, risk appetite recovers.
BTC: Chance to break upper resistance zone, spot funds enter, opening upward space.
ETH: Ratio repair window opens, ecosystem narrative will be repriced by funds, elasticity clearly released.
SOL: Elasticity fully released, speculative funds massively return, on-chain hotspots explode, pulse rally strongest, but foundation still existing sentiment, sustainability doubtful.
Summary: PCE is settled, macro script now rewritten by Wash's speech. Beta gradient among the three unchanged: BTC defensive, ETH medium elasticity, SOL highest elasticity and risk. Neutral environment maintains oscillation; hawkish suppresses high elasticity coins; dovish benefits all, SOL leads gains. US Treasury yields are stuck at a twenty-year high, and the PCE is still at 3.7%, quite far from the 2% target. The market has been restless, eager to pry some clear signal about rate hikes or cuts from Warsh's mouth. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 38%, and the chance of a hike before year-end exceeds 70%. These are not small numbers; they represent the market voting with its feet. $BTC $ETH $SNDK But when it comes to BTC, things aren't that simple. Hashdex's Chief Investment Officer put it bluntly: BTC doesn't directly respond to whether there will be a rate hike in September; it follows global liquidity and the long-end yield curve. Last week, when the Treasury increased long-term bond repos, BTC immediately surged to 80,000; this rally is a liquidity event. So tonight, how Warsh speaks will directly determine the direction of Treasury yields. If he supports the Treasury's repo operations or acknowledges that long-term bond pressure requires liquidity relief, BTC can continue to push higher on expectations of looser liquidity. If he prioritizes inflation and emphasizes the need for further rate hikes, BTC will have to follow gold's path—first under pressure, then seeking direction. Additionally, there is a $6.4 billion BTC options expiry on Friday, with the largest pain point right around 78,000. Market makers' hedging positions will sweep back and forth with the price, causing significant volatility. Tonight's market is amplified by both macro factors and derivatives. Don't bet on direction; reduce your position, set stop losses, and wait for the shoe to drop. I'll be watching the market; see you in the live room tonight. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Wildcat Trading Diary 【link】 $LINK has also clearly heated up recently, but what’s really worth watching is not just a few points gained in a day, but why Charles Schwab, after $BTC and $ETH, has included LINK in the next batch of spot trading listings. Schwab announced that in the coming months it will add spot trading for SOL, AVAX, and LINK. For LINK, this is equivalent to opening another very important traditional finance gateway. 1. Why did Schwab choose LINK? Because LINK is quite different from many ordinary altcoins. Chainlink is more like the "data and connectivity infrastructure" in blockchain. Simply put, smart contracts don’t know the price of gold, US debt data, or what’s happening in the real world; they need oracles to securely deliver this off-chain data on-chain. And Chainlink is now doing more than just price feeds; CCIP is also solving how to securely transfer data and assets between different blockchains and traditional financial systems. So Schwab’s choice of LINK is more like an endorsement of its infrastructure role. 2. Why is LINK so closely related to RWA? RWA means bringing real-world assets like US debt, funds, and gold onto the blockchain. But once assets are on-chain, several problems immediately arise: Where does the price data come from? How to transfer between different chains? How do traditional financial systems connect with on-chain systems? These are exactly the areas Chainlink excels in. SoBrothers, at this time tonight, you really need to keep a close eye. At 22:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will deliver his first major speech during his term at Jackson Hole. For the market, this might not just be an ordinary speech, but a "make-up class" for policy communication that has lasted for months. In recent months, the Fed has clearly become more cautious in its policy statements, leaving the market without clear forward guidance, and investors can only guess for themselves. The question then arises: which is more important, inflation or economic growth? Is there still a possibility of further tightening in the future? This kind of ambiguous expectation has ultimately been fully reflected in asset prices. The 30-year US Treasury yield continues to rise, gold is approaching highs again, and Bitcoin is repeatedly tugging around $80,000. What the market is really waiting for now is not how much Powell will say, but whether he can provide a clear policy direction. If Powell is clearly hawkish tonight, emphasizing inflation risks while keeping the possibility of further tightening, the market may revise up rate hike expectations again. In this case, the US dollar is likely to gain support, long-term US Treasury yields may fall back or be repriced, while gold and BTC could face some short-term pressure. But if Powell continues to remain vague and unwilling to provide a clear policy path, doubts about the Fed's communication ability may further widen. Once long-term US Treasury yields continue to rise and the dollar comes under pressure, funds may instead seek non-sovereign assets like gold and Bitcoin again. So, the only core thing really worth watching tonight is: What exactly will Powell say$BTC has failed to hold above 80,000 three times, with the heaviest historical trapped supply weighing down the price on the top.
BTC touched 80,000 three times but quickly fell back each time; this is not due to weak bulls, but because the selling pressure density at this level far exceeds expectations.
Glassnode data is very clear: in the 80,000-82,000 USD range, about 8% of the total BTC supply is locked, making it the most concentrated resistance price band in the entire market. At the single price point of 80,000 USD alone, 5% of circulating supply is concentrated, the highest concentration among all single price points. The trapped chips from the crash at the beginning of the year are all piled up here, and once the price reaches this level, the unlocking positions immediately start to sell off.
More importantly, the average holding cost of the US spot ETF also falls exactly within the 80,000-82,000 range. Institutional funds are not here to be the "liberation army"; near the cost line, the selling pressure from breakeven liquidations combined with retail trapped supply overlaps, and the daily inflows from ETFs alone cannot absorb this.
This also explains why every rally is accompanied by high volume and the pullbacks are faster—the buying side is passive short squeezes plus ETF allocations, while the selling side is real unlocking selling pressure, so the forces are completely unbalanced.
I judge that in the short term, the price will still oscillate and grind at the 75,000-80,000 range to digest this layer of chips before a real breakout can occur. Hold your base positions without moving, reduce positions on rallies, and buy on dips; in a sideways market, avoiding chasing highs is the optimal strategy.
How long do you think this 80,000 level will continue to be tested?
$ETH 🟠 $BTC has reclaimed $80,000, and market sentiment is clearly heating up again. 📈 The rally is partly tied to changing policy expectations, but the deeper story is liquidity. As longer-term yields ease, investors become more willing to reprice risk assets higher. In other words, this move may be less about a sudden wave of extraordinary good news and more about liquidity expectations beginning to loosen. But there’s still an important obstacle: inflation hasn’t fully cooled. July’s PCE reading$ETH Why did many people miss out this year, not buying any spot below 60k in June-July, still thinking about the "last dip"? Still not believing that a reversal is underway? Because most people are stuck in the past, comparing to the 2022 and 2018 bear markets, generally thinking the 2026 bull market will start like the previous two bear markets, needing to kick off in January next year.
Actually, this bear market operates very differently from before. This time, the bear market completed two main down waves in one go, and the final wave fluctuated the least, matching the characteristics of the tail end of each bear market. Previously, bear markets dragged on wave by wave, lasting a whole year. June 30 this year is equivalent to November 21, 2022 (the ultimate low of 15443 in 2022). This time, after about 6 weeks of sideways consolidation at the bottom, it surged dramatically; after November 21, 2022, there was also about 6 weeks of sideways consolidation at the bottom before surging on January 1, 2023.
From June to July, I kept reminding that the monthly MACD had already returned to the zero line—how could it possibly drop to a lower level? It's like a plane has already landed; can it still dig underground?
BTC's signal for the bear market ending at the end of June was not very obvious; the clearest signals were from SOL and ETH.
Now is the time to cherish this pullback opportunity. The world's pace is getting faster and faster; opportunities often slip away in your hesitation. Share this!$BTC $ETH $LAB Can lab also hitch a ride to 5?
BTC broke through $81,000 intraday on Friday, now at $80,100, up over 28% in August, poised to record the largest monthly gain since November 2024. ETH is above $2,500. The Fear & Greed Index rose to 82, returning to "Extreme Greed."
What's driving the rise? ① The U.S. Treasury expanded its debt repurchase program, lowering long-term bond yields and weakening the dollar, igniting a "devaluation trade," with BTC up over 20% since August 19; ② After short squeeze, institutions took over, with spot ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding $2.6 billion over eight days, BlackRock increasing holdings for eight consecutive days; ③ Nvidia's strong outlook boosted tech stock sentiment, spilling over to crypto market risk appetite.
All eyes on Warsh tonight. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole at 23:00 Beijing time. The market focuses on three signals: interest rate path (July PCE 3.7%, hawkish tone would suppress risk assets, dovish tone would be positive), stance on Treasury repurchase, and characterization of crypto regulation. The speech wording will determine short-term direction.
Risks coexist: Fidelity ETF saw $83.6 million outflows yesterday; "Extreme Greed" often signals pullback risk; whether the rally continues depends on ETF inflows and spot buying replacing macro support.
Conclusion: Every word from Warsh tonight could redefine everything. Dovish means 80k is just the start; hawkish means the rebound will face a real test.BTC has surged to 80,000 three times, only to be pushed back each time. This level seems welded shut, but the reason isn't in the candlestick chart; it's in the chip structure.
Selling pressure is concentrated between 81,000 and 86,000. The average cost for long-term holders is around this area, and the short-term holders who built positions from 62,000 to 81,000 also have dense chips near 80,000. Both groups are selling simultaneously, and the sell wall directly covers the buy orders. SOPR once rose to 1.48, indicating accelerated movement of profit-taking chips—not retail investors fleeing, but those holding for over half a year feeling it's about time.
The options market is also locking the ceiling. Today, $6.4 billion worth of BTC options expire, with the biggest pain point between 68,000 and 70,000. Call option chips are highly concentrated at 75,000 and 80,000. After the gamma structure turned negative, market makers shifted from passive buying to passive selling, making 80,000 the upper limit for this expiration.
The Federal Reserve is still holding things back. Today, Powell gave his first major speech at Jackson Hole, and the market is waiting for signals. If hawkish, yields and the dollar will strengthen, putting pressure on Bitcoin.
ETFs are buying, but Coinbase's premium remains negative. Last week saw a net inflow of $1.9 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbing $1.3 billion, but U.S. investor spot demand hasn't truly picked up yet.
I believe 80,000 is not just a psychological barrier but a physical ceiling due to chip structure. The sell wall + options ceiling + hawkish expectations + absence of U.S. buying pressure—these four factors combined make it hard to break through in the short term. Unless ETF inflows accelerate, Coinbase premium turns positive, and Powell unexpectedly dovetails—meeting at least two of these three conditions—it's highly likely to continue grinding between 75,000 and 80,000.The recent market situation is quite interesting. Spot gold $XAU, after challenging the $4,700 level, is currently oscillating at a high level around $4,587.80. Although it has slightly dropped 0.55% in 24 hours, global gold ETFs saw a massive inflow of $6.38 billion last week, marking the largest weekly inflow in 10 months.
This needs to be viewed dialectically: fundamentally, people are indeed very skeptical about the US dollar and fiscal credit; but sentiment-wise, Citibank sharply pointed out that this surge is mainly driven by futures funds setting the pace, while the Asian public (physical consumption) has not yet caught up.
The current high volatility in gold essentially reflects a stress test on asset sovereignty by large liquidity groups. Funds have undergone a violent migration from traditional bond markets to non-sovereign assets (gold and BTC). The reason for the net volume-price outflow of $125 million (intensity -38.20%) is that short-term profit-taking encountered extremely strong psychological resistance near $4,637.00. Large groups are testing the buying resilience around $4,565.80 through repeated wide-range oscillations. Simply put, some are withdrawing while others are waiting for a pullback to buy at a bargain.
@okxx丶Perfunctory Strategy
* Direction: short-term bearish, mid-term bullish.
* Suggested entry points: If spot gold rebounds to the $4,610 - $4,620 range, it is an excellent "sniping position" for short-term shorts; if going long, it is recommended to firmly defend the $4,550 support level.
* The Four Kings of BTCFi: Who is the True Leader in This Bull Market?
The biggest main theme of this bull market is definitely BTCFi, but many people can't distinguish the real hierarchy of STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY, leading to chaotic buying, mistimed moves, and inability to hold onto major bull stocks.
BTCFi will not be dominated by a single player but will instead see a segmented and divided market, with four categories of targets corresponding to four types of capital logic and four different growth ceilings.
First Tier: CORE (The Absolute Comprehensive Leader)
CORE is not a Bitcoin L2; it is an independent Bitcoin hashrate L1 public chain, which is its biggest differentiating advantage.
Relying on Bitcoin hashrate as a security foundation and fully EVM-compatible, it is the only one among the four kings that has completed a commercial closed loop and entered the revenue era.
By 2026, with institutional staking of lstBTC, SatPay cross-border payments, and on-chain fees continuously generating real cash flow, there is an expectation of buybacks. The principal assets are locked on the BTC mainnet, and the security model is institutionally recognized.
It is the most fundamentally strong, narratively compelling, practically implemented, and capital-capacity leader in this BTCFi cycle, with the highest certainty for the main upward wave.
Second Tier: BABY (The Highest Long-Term Odds Dark Horse)
BABY follows the top-tier underlying security route, not engaging in DeFi or applications, only Bitcoin security leasing.
BTC remains entirely in native addresses, with no custody, no cross-chain, and zero-risk staking, making it currently the most trusted BTCFi model. It is heavily backed by top-tier capital and has no competitors in its niche.
The downside is slow breakout and a focus on underlying infrastructure, making it more suitable for long-term positions of over a year. It is expected to undergo value revaluation in the mid-to-late stages of this bull market.
Third Tier: STX (Stable Defensive Type)
STX is a veteran Bitcoin native L2, focusing on BTC-denominated yields, with steady institutional recognition.
However, its fatal flaw is lack of EVM compatibility, limiting developer ecosystem expansion and making it difficult to attract massive new capital.
It is suitable for stable allocation and capturing cyclical dividends but unlikely to experience a super main upward wave, with its growth ceiling locked.
Fourth Tier: MERL (Purely Cyclical Elastic Target)
Merlin's ZK technology is solid, but assets rely on MPC custody, posing counterparty risk, which naturally deters large institutional funds.
Its market performance is entirely tied to inscription popularity, with explosive gains in bull markets and severe drops in bear markets. It is a typical sentiment-driven swing target without independent long-term growth logic.
Final Summary
To capture the main rise and fundamental resonance in this cycle: heavy position in CORE
For extreme safety and long-term bottom accumulation: allocate BABY
For stable value preservation and low volatility holding: choose STX
To speculate on short-term trends and capitalize on inscription elasticity: small position in MERL
The core to making money in a bull market: choosing the right track and tier is ten times more important than frequently switching coins.
#BTCFi #CORE #BABY #STX #MERLWhy did many people miss out this year, not buying any spot below 60k in June-July, still thinking about the "last dip"? Still not believing that we are currently on the path of reversal? Because most people are stubbornly comparing this to the 2022 and 2018 bear markets, generally believing that the 2026 bull market will start in January next year, just like the previous two bear markets.
In fact, this bear market operates very differently from before. This bear market completed two main down waves in one go, and the final wave has the smallest fluctuation, which fits the characteristics of the tail end of each bear market. Previously, bear markets were drawn out wave by wave, lasting a whole year. June 30 this year is equivalent to November 21, 2022 (the ultimate low of 15443 in 2022). This time, after about 6 weeks of sideways consolidation at the bottom, there was a sudden breakout. After November 21, 2022, there was also about 6 weeks of sideways consolidation at the bottom before a breakout on January 1, 2023.
From June to July, I kept reminding that the monthly MACD had already returned to the zero line; how could it possibly fall to a lower position? It's like a plane has already landed—can it still dig underground?
BTC's signal for the end of the bear market at the end of June was not very obvious; the clearest signals were from SOL and ETH.
Now is the time to cherish this opportunity for a pullback. The pace of this world is getting faster and faster, and opportunities often slip away in your hesitation.The name BICO once caused me to stumble in the market; that memory of being completely wiped out still sticks as a thorn in my trading discipline. Yesterday during the session, there were signs of volume exhaustion on the 5-minute chart, so I tentatively placed a short order at the top, and the price did indeed drop initially. But then the market quickly pulled back, and this quick rebound after a deep dip made me realize my judgment was wrong, so I decisively closed the position manually and accepted the loss.
There were three main reasons that pushed me to give up on this trade. First, the funding rate kept rising, making the financing cost of holding the short position no longer worthwhile; second, the fact that it didn’t drop as expected was itself a signal, indicating that market-making funds were still active and not willing to give up; third, its underlying assets belong to the Layer1 and Layer2 sectors, which have a significant connection to the Ethereum ecosystem. Previously, Ethereum showed a clear rise while it barely moved, and such divergence often means there is a rotation opportunity for a catch-up rally later.
Now that the market has started moving, I will no longer go against the trend but instead observe how far it can go, with a psychological price target around 0.04 for now. Market rhythm is always like this: a late rally is not necessarily weaker; the key is whether volume can continue to support it.
Risk warning: Virtual asset prices are highly volatile, and the catch-up rally logic may not hold. Please view the market rationally and manage your positions carefully. $BICO🚨HEMI surged 34%, but I took a look at the market cap: it's only just over $9 million, smaller than many small altcoins.
But it's really not an ordinary small coin.
Hemi was a popular Bitcoin L2/BTCFi project a few years ago, with funding and a technical team, focusing on combining BTC's security with ETH's programmability. Now $HEMI also has perpetual contract trading on OKX.
📊 Some data today is quite exaggerated:
• Circulating market cap just over $9 million
• 24H total market volume close to $100 million
• Trading volume about 10 times the circulating market cap
• Surged 34% at one point today
I looked around and haven't seen any major new positive news to explain this surge.
So it looks more like:
A once popular BTCFi project fell to a small-cap coin → funds suddenly ignited it → shorts got squeezed → short-term funds continue to relay.
💡 But what interests me more is another question:
A once popular project, now down to just over $9 million circulating market cap, is it a market-misjudged goldmine or simply unwanted?
After all, in this cycle, there are plenty of old projects down over 90%.
A big drop ≠ cheap, low market cap ≠ undervalued.
So is it a land full of gold, or a land full of gold pits?👇
$HEMI#StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易
StarkWare completed the first quantum-safe transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet using the QSB scheme, without requiring a fork or changes to Bitcoin's underlying protocol, relying on hash signatures to resist the risk of private key cracking by future quantum computers.
Currently, Bitcoin uses elliptic curve cryptography, which theoretically allows high-performance quantum computers to derive private keys from public keys. Market statistics show about 30% of BTC assets are exposed to quantum risk. This transaction proves that without upgrading the entire network consensus, assets can be transferred into a quantum-resistant locked mode.
However, my personal view is that this is only an emergency experimental solution and is still far from large-scale adoption.
This scheme has obvious shortcomings: the computational cost per transaction is high, taking several hours; ordinary nodes cannot forward it and it requires special channels to hand over to miners for packaging. It is not suitable for daily transfers and is more like an "escape tool" in crisis situations rather than a wallet feature for ordinary users. The industry still looks forward to a soft fork to achieve systemic quantum resistance in the long term.
From a market perspective, this event is more of a technical narrative positive and is unlikely to directly drive the coin price in the short term. It represents further exploration of the zero-knowledge field within the Bitcoin ecosystem, but should not be overinterpreted as "Bitcoin has already solved the quantum threat." $BTC In the past three years, AI has been a "chip grabbing" race. GPUs, HBM, power, data centers—whoever can buy the chips gets to tell the story. This phase was not wrong, but it is becoming outdated.
Hardware is still breaking records: North America's top five cloud providers are pushing capital expenditures to $660–690 billion this year, and Nvidia's quarterly revenue has surpassed $96 billion.
Chips, memory, and power remain tight, and the arms race on the training side hasn't stopped. But once the cards are stacked, the next question immediately arises—how do these computing powers turn into profits? Stories that only buy chips without discussing implementation can no longer continue.
The answer lies in the software layer. Gartner estimates global AI spending this year at about $2.59 trillion. The fastest growth is not in chips but in software: infrastructure software is approaching $230 billion, application software nearly $270 billion, and intelligent agent software jumped from $86.4 billion to $206.5 billion in one year, a growth rate of 139%.
In Nvidia's own enterprise survey, the top budget priority has shifted to "optimizing AI workflows," with building data centers pushed to the back.
This is not a trend rotation; it is a structural transformation.
Hardware solves "can it compute," software solves "what is the use of computing." Power and chips determine the ceiling, software determines utilization.
The next competition is not about who can still buy cards, but who can first fully utilize the cards they already have. The highway is already paved. The real competition is about what cars run on it and who drives them. #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 【Crypto Weekly Report】
Coverage Period: 2026.08.17—08.23
1. 📊 Key Data
▪️ BTC $77,625.3 📈 +22.93%
▪️ ETH $2,140.50 📈 +13.62%
▪️ OKB $108.15 📈 +3.60%
2. 📰 Selected Industry Events
🟢 US Treasury Intervention Sparks "Currency Devaluation Trade": The US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchase operations weakened the dollar, accelerating capital flow from fiat and government bonds into high inflation-resistant and scarce assets, driving a strong market rebound.
🟢 SEC Officially Proposes "New Crypto Asset Regulations": The US SEC proposed a compliance exemption framework for crypto investment contracts, further enhancing regulatory transparency.
🔴 Short Squeeze Accelerates Unilateral Market Rally: Previously, market sentiment was extremely bearish with leveraged positions skewed towards shorts; macroeconomic positive stimuli triggered large-scale short liquidations, causing a short-term emotional spike.
3. 🔍 This Week's Focus: US Treasury Expansion and Crypto's Hedging Role
Against the backdrop of high US debt levels and elevated borrowing costs, the market is re-pricing Bitcoin as a macro hedge against sovereign credit dilution and sovereign debt risk. The driving force behind this rally has shifted from pure on-chain speculation to a deeper global macro liquidity rebalancing.
🔭 This Week's Highlights
⭐ 08.27 - 08.29: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting and Federal Reserve Officials' Speeches USD1 currently has a scale of about 4 billion USD; on August 14, the OCC gave conditional approval to the National Trust Bank's application by World Liberty Trust Company, with future business including USD1 issuance, reserve management, and digital asset custody. According to normal retail investor thinking, such news should have caused WLFI to surge directly. But in reality, it did not. Within 24 hours, the price mainly fluctuated between 0.0575 and 0.0620, battling back and forth around 0.06. The news is strong, but the price is cold. This is actually the part I am most interested in right now. Positive news without a price increase cannot directly equal "whale accumulation." It could also be another situation: there are enough chips in the market, and they are cashing out by leveraging the positive news. So 0.06 now looks more like a verification point. There are sellers willing to sell above, and buyers willing to buy below; neither side has completely pushed the price away for the time being. What really needs to be watched is not the amount of news, but when these sell orders will be fully absorbed. One more thing worth noting: On August 26, another proposal appeared on World Liberty's own governance forum, discussing using the unlocked WLFI Treasury holdings to support USD1 growth. Note, this is currently only a community governance proposal and does not represent execution yet. But it at least indicates one thing: what WLFI really needs to solve now is not "whether there is a story." Rather: USD1 is getting bigger, and the silver#财报观察员：AI demand spreads from hardware to software
Recently, AI sector earnings reports have been rolling in intensively, and many have noticed: computing power alone is no longer enough; the market trend is shifting from "hardware" to "software"!
💡 Core signal: Whoever can make money is the real king
NVIDIA and Marvell are still rising, confirming the demand for computing power, but look closely at the software side—CrowdStrike's revenue surged 26%, with recurring revenue skyrocketing 51%! Salesforce and Okta have also turned around thanks to their performance. What does this mean? It means AI is no longer just a "arms race" but has entered the "monetization is king" phase. Investors no longer buy into stories; they vote with real profits. Synopsys's stock price pressure is a bloody lesson: no performance, riding the hype is useless.
💰 Big shift in investment logic
The old logic was "buy shovels" (hardware), now the logic is "see who found the gold" (software applications). The next opportunities lie in companies that can convert AI into orders and cash flow. The explosive power of software may be more lasting and stable than hardware.
🤔 Soul-searching question
Who do you think will be the main player in the next AI bull market: those who keep making chips, or those who develop applications?
Leave your code or opinions in the comments, let's dig for the next ten-bagger together!👇Nvidia's "Siphon Effect" Triggers Storage Chip Sector's Gap-Up and Plunge
On August 27, the US stock market showed extreme divergence. Nvidia surged about 8.7% on strong earnings guidance, adding over $440 billion in market value in a single day; meanwhile, the storage chip sector collectively opened high but fell sharply, with Western Digital, Micron Technology $MU, and SanDisk $SNDK all dropping more than 2%.
The core reason lies in Nvidia $NVDA's "siphon effect"—its sharp rise drained liquidity from the AI hardware sector, concentrating funds toward the AI chip leader while storage stocks were sold off. SK Hynix was the only storage stock to buck the trend and rise, which analysts attribute to its recent US listing and smaller float.
Looking deeper, storage chip stocks had previously experienced parabolic gains, with valuations at cyclical profit peaks. After SanDisk reported an extraordinary 372% year-over-year revenue increase, it still fell more than 9% that day—"good news priced in" has become the norm for the sector. Additionally, the Bank of Korea's unexpected 25 basis point rate hike to 3% weighed on Korean storage leaders like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
The AI boom continues, but capital is rotating intensely within the industry chain. The storage chip sector's gap-up followed by a plunge is a microcosm of this structural divergence.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Today (August 28), the crypto market is fluctuating at high levels, with Bitcoin $BTC repeatedly tugging at the $80,000 mark. Although the monthly chart has risen over 28%, marking the best performance in nearly a year, short-term correction risks are increasing.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Leading performance: BTC surged to $81,000 before falling back to around $79,990, ETH is consolidating at $2,500, and SOL is the strongest performer (up nearly 8%, surpassing $110).
Market sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index soared to 82 (extreme greed), the first time since the end of last year, indicating clear short-term overheating signals.
Drivers of the rise: U.S. Treasury's implicit easing (currency depreciation trades) + spot ETFs have attracted over $2.6 billion in eight consecutive days (institutional entry).
Main concerns: Profit-taking has surged (realized profits increased 824% week-over-week), buying support is weakening (stablecoin outflows), and chasing highs amid extreme greed carries significant risk. Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 level, and market sentiment has clearly warmed up. This rally is certainly driven by policy expectations, but the deeper logic is that after long-term interest rates fell, capital is once again willing to price risk assets. To put it simply, it’s not that a huge positive surprise suddenly appeared, but that the liquidity expectations weighing on the market have started to loosen.
However, the problem lies here: July’s PCE year-on-year is still at 3.7%, which is not close to the Fed’s 2% target. Without inflation fully cooling down, the Fed will find it difficult to give an unreserved easing signal. Walsh’s speech at Jackson Hole may not directly tell the market the next rate move; it’s more likely to discuss policy framework, inflation measurement, and financial innovation. For short-term funds, the biggest fear is not the absence of good news, but that expectations are set too high and ultimately disappointed.
My view is that $80,000 looks more like a repricing of liquidity expectations rather than a starting gun to blindly chase higher. Whether it can hold from here depends mainly on whether U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline, whether the dollar weakens, and whether spot and ETF funds keep supporting. If prices rise but volume does not expand, and altcoins don’t follow, it’s more likely driven by localized funds, with a high probability of repeated shakeouts ahead.
So in the coming days, don’t just focus on what the chairman says, but watch how the market digests his words—narratives like stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and on-chain settlement $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Didn't sleep well last night, and just now the eagerly awaited $MRVL earnings report finally came out. This is one of the events I am most focused on in August. Let's look at the numbers first
Q2:
Revenue $2.739B, +37% YoY, expected $2.71B
EPS $0.94, expected $0.92
Among them, Data Center $2.17B, +46%, already accounting for nearly 80% of revenue.
What really matters is Q3:
Revenue guidance $3.15B, expected $3.03B
EPS $1.10, expected $1.07
And in the earnings press release, Murphy clearly said:
AI bookings remain “exceptionally robust”,
Connectivity continues strong,
Custom silicon will see “significant acceleration” starting from the second half of FY27
The initial after-hours reaction was actually a drop. The conference call hasn't started yet. After reviewing the numbers, I think this earnings report itself is not bad, even somewhat favorable.
Currently, there are two minor regrets:
First, Q3 non-GAAP gross margin drops from this quarter's 58.9% to about 58%, indicating that while Custom silicon volume is ramping up, the mix might be pressuring gross margin.
Second, although the company said FY27 / FY28 guidance is raised again, the press release does not yet provide new specific figures.
The conference call is the real answer to this earnings report. I'll continue sharing after listening.$BTC This wave of rise feels "a bit different"
We know that the sudden violent surge of $BTC this time has led to a record-breaking scale of futures liquidations, but the open interest (OI) of contracts is simultaneously decreasing.
OI drops while the price rises, indicating that overall positions are being closed. Short stop-losses or liquidations require buying to close positions, and this buying pressure also becomes the fuel pushing the price up.
Buying to close can only eliminate existing positions; it cannot create new net exposure, so for every buy, OI decreases by one.
In other words, this rally is about clearing past positions, not betting on the future.
Its energy ceiling is the total amount of short positions in the market. Once the shorts are cleared, this force disappears.
If the rise were purely driven by liquidations, the typical pattern would be a wick spike: a rapid pull-up followed by a quick drop, leaving a long upper shadow.
But this time, after the price was pulled up, it held, indicating that after the liquidation wave subsided, other funds continued to take over positions, and this "other funds" come from the spot market.
Additionally, there is a question of causality here.
The premise of short liquidations is that the price first rises to their forced liquidation level, so who was the initial driving force?
If it were contract longs leading, opening new long positions, OI would rise, funding rates would increase, and prices would be pushed by leveraged funds, triggering short liquidations.
In that case, we would see OI rising. But in fact, this time OI has been declining almost all along, showing no signs of large-scale new leveraged funds entering.
So, let's look at the spot market.